May 6, 2025 - Tim Pool Daily Show
01:03:00
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| Speaker | Time | Text |
|---|---|---|
| A judge has ordered Donald Trump to admit some 12,000 refugees into the country. | ||
| Now, Donald Trump is polling decently in many areas, but he has seen a decline, bouncing back and forth in aggregates, though many of the corporate news outlets say he's weighed down. | ||
| Maybe he is. | ||
| But even CNN had to admit the one issue that Donald Trump has where he remains steady and strong, immigration. | ||
| Now, what could Donald Trump be doing that has resulted in him polling so favorably in this country as it pertains to immigration? | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| Could it be he secured the border immediately and he's been deporting criminal gang members and illegal aliens? | ||
| Indeed, that must be the case. | ||
| Now, Semaphore has a very interesting article where they said, you know, Donald Trump's not doing too well. | ||
| The economy is another major issue and people are concerned about it. | ||
| How are the Democrats not benefiting from From the media hits, from the perceived chaos. | ||
| Interesting. | ||
| The Democrats are doing substantially worse despite everything they are saying about Trump. | ||
| Despite concerns about this trade war and these tariffs, Donald Trump is still doing better. | ||
| The Republican Party is still doing better. | ||
| And that says something. | ||
| The Democrats have no choice. | ||
| They have to oppose literally every single thing the Republicans do. | ||
| And this is not a legitimate political stance. | ||
| If the Democrats simply say, no matter what Trump is doing is wrong, people are going to start to ask questions about what they would support if they actually vote for a Democrat. | ||
| You know, Donald Trump's not completely unreasonable. | ||
| He may have crazy ideas. | ||
| He may have, let me put it this way, he may identify problems. | ||
| And his solutions may be, let's just say bold, is a nice way to put it, right? | ||
| But at least as an idea there, you know, when you vote for Republicans, they've got a plan. | ||
| You know, when you vote for Donald Trump, he's going to take certain actions in certain directions. | ||
| What do you get when you vote for Democrats? | ||
| Nothing. | ||
| Why are these judges defying the one thing Trump is popular on? | ||
| They have no choice. | ||
| At least that's how they view it. | ||
| Their ideology and their system is wholly dependent on propping up their electoral base with non-citizens. | ||
| We've seen the data. | ||
| I believe it was might have been Ezra Klein, formerly of Vox.com. | ||
| I believe he's still one of the founders saying with the net out migration from blue states, even if Kamala Harris were to have won Pennsylvania and Michigan, Trump still would have won the election because the electoral vote count swing towards red states after 2030 will be massive. | ||
| Democrats must have non-citizens to bolster their population number because, don't forget, the amount of congressional seats you get, the amount of Electoral College votes you get is based on the population count, not citizenship. | ||
| That means the census will count illegal immigrants and they will get extra votes in Congress and extra votes in the Electoral College. | ||
| It's cheating. | ||
| It's subverting the will of the American people, but that's their game plan. | ||
| The American people are fed up with it. | ||
| That's why Democrats are not benefiting from this. | ||
| So, my friends, we're going to break this down. | ||
| And I believe we'll be joined by Ryan Gerduski, about a half an hour, to go through all of the Democrats' current positioning, their polling, and why they're in disarray. | ||
| So we'll talk a bit about that. | ||
| Before we do, my friends, shout out to The Mug Club and Steven Crowder for shouting us out. | ||
| This is the Rumble Noon Live. | ||
| I'm your host, Tim Poole. | ||
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| From the Washington Times. | ||
| Judge orders Trump to admit roughly 12,000, I'm going to do air quotes for this one, refugees. | ||
| They're not refugees and we know it. | ||
| Some of them maybe sometimes, but I believe what? | ||
| Over 90% of the people that claim they're refugees coming to this country are lying to exploit our laws and to cause us some damage. | ||
| But I want to say this as we get started. | ||
| Something I want y 'all to consider in the very beginning of the segment as we move forward. | ||
| There's only about 40. We need people to expand our workforce, our system, our fractional reserve banking system. | ||
| It relies on an ever-growing population. | ||
| That ain't possible. | ||
| And right now, with population collapse looming, Donald Trump is facing something serious. | ||
| Mass deportations. | ||
| At a time when we're expecting a surge because of his tariffs in over one million manufacturing jobs, where are those people going to come from? | ||
| It's going to get interesting. | ||
| I believe largely young people will find work, but the problem gets interesting. | ||
| Let's start here. | ||
| A judge on Monday ordered the Trump administration to admit some 12,000 refugees into the US under a court order partially blocking the president's efforts to suspend the nation's refugee admissions program. | ||
| The order from US District Judge Jamal Whitehead followed arguments from the DOJ and refugee resettlement agencies over how to interpret a federal appeals court ruling that significantly narrowed an earlier decision from Whitehead. | ||
| During a hearing last week, the administration said it should only have to process 160 refugees into the country, and that it would likely appeal any order requiring it to admit thousands. | ||
| But the judge dismissed the government's analysis, saying it required not just reading between the lines of the Ninth Circuit's ruling, but hallucinating new text that simply is not there. | ||
| I'll give a big shout-out to our Democrat friends. | ||
| If this is the game you want to play... | ||
| Play it, baby, because I'm really hoping that come the midterms in 2026, Republicans take more seats. | ||
| So if the news is thus, Donald Trump is doing everything in his power to expedite the deportation of criminal gangs, narco gangs, terrorist elements, and illegal immigrants in general, and the Democrats are doing everything in their power to protect these people, come time for the midterms? | ||
| It's going to be a rough day because this is the one issue, as I've said a million times already, where Donald Trump is dominating in the polls. | ||
| The American people want the deportations. | ||
| Quote, This court will not entertain the government's result-oriented rewriting of a judicial order that clearly says what it says. | ||
| Whitehead wrote Monday, The government is free, of course, to seek further clarification from the Ninth Circuit. | ||
| But the government is not free to disobey statutory and constitutional law. | ||
| The refugee program created by Congress in 1980 is a form of legal migration to the U.S. for people displaced by war, natural disaster, persecution, or persecution, a process that often takes years and involves significant vetting. | ||
| It is different from asylum, by which people newly arrived in the U.S. can seek permission to remain because they fear persecution in their home country. | ||
| Upon beginning his second term on January 20th, President Donald Trump issued an executive order suspending the program. | ||
| That triggered a lawsuit by individual refugees whose efforts to resettle in the US have been halted, as well as major refugee aid groups who argued that they had to lay off staff. | ||
| The group said the administration froze their funding for processing refugee applications overseas and providing support, such as short-term rental assistance for those already in the US. | ||
| Whitehead, a 2023 appointee of former President Joe Biden, not surprised, blocked enforcement of Trump's order, saying it amounted to an effective nullification of congressional will in setting up the nation's refugee admissions program. | ||
| The Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals largely put Whitehead's decision on hold in March, finding that the admin was likely to win the case, given the president's broad authority to determine who is allowed to enter the country. | ||
| But the Beals court also said the government should continue pressing those who had already been approved for travel to the U.S., some of whom had upended their upended their lives abroad by selling property or quitting their job. | ||
| I'm just going to take a quick little pause and say, I don't care. | ||
| I don't care what your circumstances are. | ||
| I don't care about your war. | ||
| I don't care about your economy. | ||
| I don't care about your persecution. | ||
| I'm sorry. | ||
| I am not going to pretend. | ||
| To care about the problems other people are facing when we in the United States are facing our own. | ||
| A population collapse, a border crisis. | ||
| And people want to come here and say, but in my country, bad things are happening, too. | ||
| And it's like, OK, I understand. | ||
| But listen. | ||
| I got my house right in my house. | ||
| Me and roommates are fighting. | ||
| Dishes aren't getting cleaned up. | ||
| The windows are busted out. | ||
| It was once a really nice house. | ||
| And you're telling me that across the street. | ||
| You have similar but worse problems where you're fighting with your roommates. | ||
| Okay, well, go somewhere else. | ||
| Go somewhere. | ||
| I am not going to play this game where, oh no, the child is crying. | ||
| Quick, burn the Constitution. | ||
| I'm not playing that game. | ||
| Just because your circumstances are bad doesn't mean we have to foot the bill. | ||
| Plain and simple. | ||
| You know, they say when you're on an airplane, make sure you secure your own oxygen mask before securing the mask of those sitting next to you. | ||
| So if we as a nation decide. | ||
| Countries full. | ||
| And we vote for mass deportation. | ||
| That is what we should get. | ||
| We don't get to just have these judges reverse the will of an election. | ||
| But let's consider for a moment what the problem will ultimately be. | ||
| If the system by which the Founding Fathers created is that we have a means to elect our representatives. | ||
| But people in government can create circumstances in the judiciary. | ||
| The legislative branch and the executive branch, by which, even if you vote, it changes nothing, then the system is fried. | ||
| It's broken. | ||
| Let's try that again. | ||
| Do you believe the founding fathers intended for us to vote for representatives to then get in office and say, the previous administration has tied my hands. | ||
| I can make no changes. | ||
| No. | ||
| The point was, the elections could change the system if the people saw problems. | ||
| Well, right now, we are largely dealing with an untenable situation. | ||
| Take a look at this story from the Postmillennial. | ||
| Venezuelan officials facilitate TDA members' migration to the U.S. to destabilize governments and undermine public safety, IC report. | ||
| Yeah, we assume this to be the case. | ||
| Venezuela's got overcrowded prisons and a very high murder rate. | ||
| And so what do they do? | ||
| They release the prisoners, go to America. | ||
| Bother them, they'll let you in. | ||
| So let's talk about when the American people identify a problem. | ||
| TDA took over apartment complexes in Colorado. | ||
| The media lied and claimed it wasn't happening, despite the fact a year prior, these same media outlets reported it was happening. | ||
| Because they didn't want Trump to win, they decided to lie to the American people because they're evil. | ||
| They're evil. | ||
| They are psychotically obsessed with Trump. | ||
| They vomit all over themselves, angry at Trump. | ||
| And when Trump comes out and says, what is this thing I saw in the news? | ||
|
unidentified
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They've got TDA, they call it, taking over apartments. | |
| And the media goes, nope, not true, lied. | ||
| And then you're like, this is your outlet one year ago reporting that it was true. | ||
| And you're now claiming it's not true. | ||
| Why? | ||
| Because Trump said it. | ||
| These people are insane. | ||
| They're unhinged. | ||
| So we elected Donald Trump and the Republican Congress and Senate because we want to see action. | ||
| I will point out, I largely bring the fault to the Republican Senate and Congress for doing nothing. | ||
| They've got a majority right now. | ||
| They can pass stuff. | ||
| They could end the filibuster. | ||
| They don't want to. | ||
| If we end the filibuster, they'll lose it against us. | ||
| I don't care. | ||
| They're going to. | ||
| They're going to pack the court. | ||
| I'm telling you right now. | ||
| Democrats will pack the court. | ||
| They will end the filibuster. | ||
| And they will ram through everything they can the moment they take power. | ||
| If Trump and the Republicans do not win in the midterms, and the Democrats get a simple majority in the Senate and in Congress, I don't know if they can win the Senate. | ||
| We'll see. | ||
| Yeah, they're going to pack the Supreme Court. | ||
| They're going to start taking up every possible case they can. | ||
| Right now, it's, they say, six to three. | ||
| But let's be honest. | ||
| Roberts, is he really conservative? | ||
| Coney Barrett? | ||
| Come on. | ||
| She she's basically a lib at this point. | ||
| She is terrified to issue rulings. | ||
| The stupid like one of the biggest mistakes. | ||
| Sorry, Trump was picking Amy Coney Barrett because she is terrified to defy the left. | ||
| She is terrified that they'll come in and threaten her life like they did to Brett Kavanaugh. | ||
| So what was like what was the last Supreme Court hearing? | ||
| She wasn't even there. | ||
| I can't remember. | ||
| This was on the school books, maybe. | ||
| And they were concerned it could be a four to four ruling because she. | ||
| Wasn't there? | ||
| Amazing. | ||
| They're going to pack the court. | ||
| They're going to add four seats. | ||
| They're going to say there's 13 circuits and nine judges, so there should be 13 judges. | ||
| Dems the rules. | ||
| I agree. | ||
| Trump, pack the court right now. | ||
| Trump and Republicans should say, we're going to add new judges for each circuit. | ||
| Because you know what? | ||
| You've got some judges that have multiple circuits because, like I said, there are. | ||
| Nine judges and 13 circuits. | ||
| That was the Democrats' argument the whole time. | ||
| They're going to win in the midterms. | ||
| I'm not saying they will. | ||
| I'm saying if they win in the midterms, they will pack the court. | ||
| Okay, I don't need to be so hyperbolic. | ||
| I believe there's a strong probability they do. | ||
|
unidentified
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Why? | |
| Because Trump is in office. | ||
| And they're going to want all of the judicial power they can get, they can muster up, to stop Trump and claim constitutional legitimacy. | ||
| So they will move to pack the courts. | ||
| However, That being said, they can't necessarily do it right now. | ||
| They have to win the presidency. | ||
| Otherwise, I hope they do because Trump would be the one who picks those Supreme Court justices. | ||
| So let me clarify. | ||
| If they win in the midterms and then in 2028, they're going to pack the courts to make sure someone like Trump can never win again. | ||
| Now, I don't know how they do in 2028, but they're going to make major moves if they win the midterms. | ||
| They're going to impeach Donald Trump. | ||
| They won't be able to muster up a conviction. | ||
| But again, my point is simply this. | ||
| Without getting into the, I guess, overt hyperbole, Donald Trump should, for I don't care why reason, literally just should do it. | ||
| Add four more justices right now, when you can. | ||
| Hey, those are the rules they wanted to play by. | ||
| Take a look at some of these stories and let's carry on. | ||
| Cape Cod Home. | ||
| Daycare shut down after child rapist from Brazil found living there. | ||
| Oh. | ||
| Why was a rapist from Brazil living in a daycare? | ||
| I just, I'm done. | ||
| I don't care. | ||
| The lies, the manipulation from the Democrats and the left, they want to cheat. | ||
| They want power. | ||
| Their vision for this country is the end of this country. | ||
| I like America. | ||
| I like the 4th of July. | ||
| I like baseball. | ||
| I like hot dogs on the grill. | ||
| Cheeseburgers. | ||
| Man, I grew up. | ||
| You grew up. | ||
| We remember it. | ||
| You know what they want to do? | ||
| They're fracturing the culture so that Gen Z and Gen Alpha will grow up in a society that they won't remember Christmas morning. | ||
| The Republicans, I think, are largely ineffective and have always been. | ||
| And they're cringe. | ||
| The war on Christmas. | ||
|
unidentified
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Shut up. | |
| I'm sorry. | ||
| I know some of you might be, but there is. | ||
| Yeah, yeah, yeah. | ||
| No, I get it. | ||
| They want to rip. | ||
| Our culture to shreds, set it on fire, and then piss on it. | ||
| Okay? | ||
| But the Republicans have been so cringe how they've gone about countering these cultural moves from the left. | ||
| The war on Christmas. | ||
| You do not win a battle by reacting to it. | ||
| Read The Art of War. | ||
| Or perhaps as Donald Trump has written it, The Art of the Deal. | ||
| You win the battle before it begins. | ||
| The appropriate moves to be made by the right to defend Christmas morning, French toast and waffles, opening presents, Santa Claus, is to enforce those cultural ideas not to complain that someone else is doing something else. | ||
| Let me put it like this. | ||
| If there were a bunch of kids running around on pogo sticks outside and you were like, I wish the kids were playing football instead. | ||
| Let me ask you. | ||
| What would you do to get them to play football? | ||
| I know. | ||
| Would you go out and scream at them and yell that they're waging war on football? | ||
| Or would you come on and say, hey guys, bring your pogo sticks. | ||
| Let's play a quick game of football. | ||
| Like, I'll come out. | ||
| We'll bring the boys. | ||
| You guys go pogo stick afterwards. | ||
| You build culture and community around the ideas you want to propagate. | ||
| And these kids are going to be like, okay, we'll play a little bit. | ||
| They'll put the pogo sticks down. | ||
| I got no beef with pogo sticks. | ||
| My point is, the right has long engaged in the culture war by simply wagging the finger and insulting the left. | ||
| That is why I have been screaming, build culture, make music, make movies, do sports. | ||
| And I'll tell you right now, the Daily Wire has been doing a lot of movie reviews, content, cultural content, because they understand. | ||
| You have to go in that space to influence it. | ||
| And ask people with a smile on your face, hey, that's really cool that you're hula hooping. | ||
| You want to try Frisbee golf, too? | ||
| They'll say, sure, that sounds fun. | ||
| We're going to play a game together. | ||
| And then if they enjoy it, you encourage that behavior. | ||
| This is how we save American culture. | ||
| The Democrats want Gen Z to grow up in a world where they don't have these things. | ||
| You get these stories like this, it just shows you the evil that they're going to bring in to destroy. | ||
| The American tradition. | ||
| Take a look at this story. | ||
| This is hilarious. | ||
| DHS unleashes possible money-saving measure for illegal aliens to self-deport. | ||
| It's actually true. | ||
| This is a brilliant idea. | ||
| It costs about $17,000 for the government to detain and deport an individual. | ||
| But if you self-deport, it's going to cost them $4,500. | ||
| They're going to give you $1,000. | ||
| I kid you not. | ||
| DHS will front the cost of commercial flights and provide a $1,000 stipend to illegal aliens who opt to self-deport from the United States in a move DHS says will save thousands of dollars. | ||
| The department says this will be 70% cheaper for American taxpayers as it currently costs DHS on average over $17,000 to arrest, attain, and deport someone. | ||
| If they don't take the stipend, you'll spend $17,000. | ||
| If they do, you'll spend $5,000. | ||
| So it's a win-win no matter what. | ||
| They're going to walk to you and say, I'll deport myself. | ||
| Here's five grand. | ||
| You just saved me 12. I'm down. | ||
| The stipend will not be paid until it was verified that an individual is self-deported. | ||
| Aliens will use the CBP Home Self-Deportation app to access this assistance. | ||
| And DHS expects self-removals already in the thousands to ramp up significantly with this announcement. | ||
| For sure. | ||
| Free money. | ||
| $4,500. | ||
| Some countries, that can buy you a house. | ||
| You think I'm joking. | ||
| I'm not saying these countries are good. | ||
| But for a lot of these people that are leaving these areas, that money goes far, especially in places like Venezuela. | ||
| Now let's think about this. | ||
| You are telling people we're going to pay you. | ||
| There is a fear of perverse incentive. | ||
| And that is, look, if you offer up $4,500 to self-deport, people are going to try and sneak into the country so they can self-deport. | ||
| Now they're going to be trying extra hard to get in. | ||
| But with the border being secure, I think we'll be all right. | ||
| I think we'll be all right. | ||
| There's a big piece of this story that I think we need to talk about, and that is on Fox a moment ago, Mike Rowe was talking about 1.4 million manufacturing jobs coming to the United States based on Trump's tariffs. | ||
| Factories are going to have to open in the U.S. to be able to bring in cheaper goods. | ||
| It's an opportunity for competition. | ||
| We don't have enough people. | ||
| I think he mentioned, I could be wrong, but something around like there's 480,000 people unemployed. | ||
| No, it's got to be way more than that. | ||
| Let's get the total number of unemployed people in the U.S. Let's get the actual number because I'm way wrong. | ||
| 6.86 million right now. | ||
| 1.4 million jobs. | ||
| The important thing to understand is we actually need a certain degree of unemployment. | ||
| It's not that I'm saying we won't build a net of jobs. | ||
| It's that people need to be between jobs so that companies can compete. | ||
| And workers can compete. | ||
| If there's no unemployed, then companies are going to be like, we have a bunch of job openings and nobody to take them. | ||
| The bigger concern I have is, will we have the population for an expanding marketplace? | ||
| Secretary of Commerce says the new model is factory jobs for life for you, your kids, and your grandkids, saying you can make $90,000 a year with a high school diploma. | ||
| Now the left... | ||
| Is insulting this. | ||
| They're posting memes of fat people working in factories as if that's the worst job you could ever have. | ||
| They have disdain for the American working class. | ||
| They get paid to do nothing. | ||
| These pundits? | ||
| Bro, let me tell you. | ||
| I will absolutely and always point out the absurdity that I, a dude who complains on the internet, make more money than like a firefighter. | ||
| Someone who's like protecting their community. | ||
| To be fair, I understand the power of influence, the power of communications, and I work too much, 16 hours a day. | ||
| I think I'm dying. | ||
| I got a good amount of sleep last night, though. | ||
| But you can hear it in my voice. | ||
| Probably dying. | ||
| We'll see how long I can handle this. | ||
| Seems to have been doing just fine. | ||
| So I do work a lot. | ||
| I don't want to undercut myself. | ||
| But I think we should be living in a society where U.S. producers, the people who build the backbone of this country, and the people working, upholding their civic duties, should be making a healthy living. | ||
| I look at these factory jobs, I say, good thing. | ||
| Trump is supposedly meeting with Canada right now to have a conversation around these issues. | ||
| I'm concerned about population decline. | ||
| Fox says New York City lost high earners and billions in income with migrants reversing population decline. | ||
| This has been the play from Democrats the whole time. | ||
| The problem I have is I kind of feel like they're doing it on purpose. | ||
| They encourage people to get abortions. | ||
| They tell you not to have kids. | ||
| They tell you to be a child for your entire life. | ||
| Don't have kids. | ||
| It sucks. | ||
| They make TV shows where they tell you being married sucks. | ||
| And then you get a generation of millennials that didn't have kids. | ||
| Doesn't own property. | ||
| Told to go live in a van. | ||
| Not kidding. | ||
| Van life videos. | ||
| Then they say, oh, you didn't have any kids? | ||
| Let's flood the country with illegal immigrants to solve that problem. | ||
| Doesn't work. | ||
| Low-skilled labor from impoverished, undeveloped nations cannot replace the medium-to-high-skilled labor this country is losing. | ||
| You can't just flood one economic bracket. | ||
| It will create chaos. | ||
| The people who come here will start committing crimes, and it'll get worse. | ||
| But maybe that was the point, to rip it all to shreds. | ||
| There's an article from Aeon, The Vanishing of Youth, where he talks, this guy, he's an Indian at Boston University, talking about how his grandparents, born in India, had ten kids. | ||
| He says, I did my part. | ||
| Over the course of three generations, my family fertility rate plummeted from ten to less than one. | ||
| During the same period, India's population exploded from 350 million to 1.4 billion. | ||
| India's a striking case, etc. | ||
| But he says the global population is still growing for now, but demographers project that humanity's numbers will peak near the end of the century before beginning a steep decline. | ||
| The important thing to point out, while they're certainly saying, but, fear not, Earth's population is growing. | ||
| It may be. | ||
| But the population of developed nations is declining. | ||
| That's the fear. | ||
| Certainly, in Africa, they're having lots of kids. | ||
| Is that going to help us maintain technology, maintain transportation lines, the internet satellites? | ||
| No. | ||
| You need high-skill labor from developed nations. | ||
| You cannot take a family from a developing nation, drop them in the U.S. and say, build a spaceship. | ||
| It'll work. | ||
| They didn't grope around that. | ||
| They didn't get the education for that. | ||
| Now, don't get me wrong. | ||
| There is a small percentage of highly skilled individuals in every country to varying degrees. | ||
| There are wealthy Nigerians who migrated to the U.S. and they make six figures. | ||
| They do very well. | ||
| But we're talking about the cream of the crop, the best of the best of those countries, legally migrating here with money. | ||
| Of course, they'll succeed. | ||
| They were already succeeding. | ||
| When you open the floodgates, this is what happens. | ||
| Now. | ||
| I'm going to wrap it up there for this part of the show. | ||
| Smash that like button. | ||
| Share the show with everybody you know. | ||
| For those that are still watching live, of course, we have an interview coming up. | ||
| But for everybody else, stay tuned. | ||
| More segments to come. | ||
| We will be back throughout the day. | ||
| Thanks for hanging out, and we'll see you all soon. | ||
| For everybody else, we'll jump into this next story. | ||
| This one's fascinating. | ||
| Trump's falling in the polls. | ||
| Why aren't Democrats benefiting? | ||
| I absolutely love this. | ||
| Despite the fact... | ||
| That the media is attacking Donald Trump. | ||
| They're smearing him and insulting him. | ||
| Everything he does is wrong. | ||
| Democrats are dropping worse. | ||
| Donald Trump's approval rating. | ||
| Let's pull up his aggregate approval rating. | ||
| This is fantastic. | ||
| Let's do the RealClearPolitics Trump aggregate. | ||
| And let's see where Trump is currently at. | ||
| RealClearPolitics president job approval. | ||
| Heavens to Betsy. | ||
| It is 45% approval. | ||
| Let's do this. | ||
| Voters rate. | ||
| Let's see. | ||
| Is that the right one? | ||
| Yes, yes, yes. | ||
| Here we go. | ||
| You know what? | ||
| You know what? | ||
| I'll pull this one in real quick. | ||
| Look at this. | ||
| Democrats' favorability hits new low. | ||
| Still favored, they say, over the GOP. | ||
| Fine. | ||
| But check this out. | ||
| Democrat favorability is 41%. | ||
| That is, my friends. | ||
| Democrats' favorability is lower than that of Trump's job approval rating. | ||
| Now, Civics has similar metrics. | ||
| I'm not going to pull up 50 million polls. | ||
| The point is this. | ||
| I will absolutely state it's fair to say I'm using an aggregate. | ||
| If we go to Fox News, what's the latest Fox News? | ||
| Do they have one here? | ||
| Doesn't look like they have a Fox News poll on the job approval for Trump. | ||
| But Trump's got a couple polls that are positive. | ||
| Rasmussen's got them plus three, but let's just say minus six. | ||
| Forty-five point two. | ||
| Democrats are still doing worse. | ||
| So we're going to be joined by Ryan James Gerdusky. | ||
| Let me get this pulled up and he will talk to us about what is currently going on with the Democratic Party and why it's not been going so well. | ||
| So let me see if I can get this pulled up quickly. | ||
| We're going to get that going. | ||
| Get that going. | ||
| Ryan, can you hear me? | ||
| Yes, I can. | ||
| How's it going, man? | ||
| Good. | ||
| How are you doing? | ||
| I'm doing pretty well. | ||
| Thank you for joining me. | ||
| We were just talking about – there's a semaphore article from Dave Weigel that says Trump's polling is dropping. | ||
| But Democrats aren't benefiting. | ||
| In fact, depending on which polls you compare, Donald Trump's approval rating in aggregate is 45 percent. | ||
| Democrats' favorability, according to a Fox News poll, is 41. And when you look at civics polling, you can see Democrat favorability is 31 percent. | ||
| To Republicans, I think, are at 38. So I'm curious what you're seeing and why the Democrats are doing so miserably, even with all the bad news Trump has been getting. | ||
| So I did a whole sub-stack post about this in my National Populist newsletter, and I had a whole episode about this. | ||
| On my podcast called A Numbers Game with Ryan Gruduski. | ||
| So check that out if you want all the details. | ||
| But here's the main part. | ||
| There have been about 12 polls in the last month. | ||
| ABC, Washington Post, The New York Times, CNN, CBS, Emerson, Fox News. | ||
| Those are the major ones. | ||
| And there were two major outliers, right, to get to this 45% number for Trump. | ||
| The two outliers were Atlas Intel and Qantas Insights. | ||
| And why they are important was Atlas Intel was the most accurate pollster in the 2024 election cycle. | ||
| Qantas Insight was the third. | ||
| Qantas inside had a negative 3%. | ||
| That's not that bad. | ||
| For Trump especially, it's really good. | ||
| If you look overall, they brought the aggregate up. | ||
| It's much worse when you take those out. | ||
| So I want to put a caveat and sit there and say the two most accurate pollsters sit there and say Trump's actually in a better place. | ||
| And primarily because those two pollsters have a much higher support level among Republicans and among independents. | ||
| Among Republicans, they average about 85% support for Trump, while all the other polls like the... | ||
| The Fox News poll and the CNN poll. | ||
| I have Trump Closer with 70% rating, and I kind of more believe the Atlas Insight and Qantas Insight polls, Atlas Intel and Qantas Insight polls than those. | ||
| Democrats face a problem with branding. | ||
| People look at the Democratic Party and they think of it as weak on crime, weak on immigration, bad on the economy. | ||
| Even though they don't like the tariffs and they have a lot of uncertainty about the tariffs and the messaging about the tariffs, the other party has a branding problem where they just seem bad when their biggest... | ||
| Name brands around them are the AOCs and the Bernie Sanders and the social justice warriors on social media who want to talk about trans and kids. | ||
| That's just, I mean, a branding problem that they can't get away from, especially in like 100 days post the new year and 150 days post-election. | ||
| Is there anybody in the Democratic Party who is counter to the far left or the woke? | ||
| Yeah, I mean, Josh Shapiro is considered more moderate. | ||
| Wes Moore, Wes Moore already announced he's not running for president in 2028. | ||
| That's already over. | ||
| I don't really know what Gavin Newsom's doing, trying to be a podcast host and, you know, having on right-wingers and telling him how much, how Charlie Kirk, how much, you know, his kids watch his show. | ||
|
unidentified
|
That's... | |
| I don't really know what that is. | ||
| He's trying to do something. | ||
| But when the rubber meets the road, even like an Andrew Cuomo type who was considered a quote-unquote moderate was the guy who said, hey, let's let all the criminals out of jail. | ||
| So I have not seen a case where a Democratic leader has taken on his party in any substantial way. | ||
| On anything from the trans issue to the crime issue to the immigration issue. | ||
| You have Bernie Sanders saying there, saying on an interview recently, we need to enforce the border. | ||
| We need to secure the border. | ||
| Yet and still voting against every single Trump border policy. | ||
| You had another congressman from southern Texas on the border who voted for the Lake and Riley Act and then immediately went on television to apologize for voting for it. | ||
| That's just, I mean, that's just the hypocrisy of them right now is that there's two kinds of people, one who are doing messaging things and the other ones who are doing voting things. | ||
| And when they vote, they have to, unless they're in a ruby red Republican district, they have to apologize. | ||
| There's a congressman in New York 3, it's a district that Trump won by five points, who says, I am, I am Long Island, I can't remember his name talking about my head, but he says, I'm from Long Island. | ||
| I'm a Long Island Democrat, but I'm moderate. | ||
| Votes immediately, when he gets into Congress, again, re-elected. | ||
| Votes immediately to start allowing transgender girls to play in female biological girl sports. | ||
| An issue that you could not be more popular on. | ||
| He just couldn't bring himself to vote for it. | ||
| So, I think there is a general fear among the party's base that the Jasmine Crockett's of the party really run the show. | ||
| This is, it just doesn't make sense. | ||
| It's patently obvious to any reasonable person. | ||
| The trans and the kids, that's an 80-20 issue. | ||
| I think it was actually 83-17. | ||
| Most people are like, yeah, don't do that. | ||
| The women's sports thing, if you're a politician, if you're a Democrat, like you're mentioning this guy in New York where Trump won. | ||
| Tom Suozzi, that's his name, Tom Suozzi. | ||
| Is he not thinking to himself, I guess I will lose in 2026? | ||
| I don't understand. | ||
| Yeah, he's hoping his local name brand can sit there and carry him through or that people aren't paying attention. | ||
| And that's really what they are. | ||
| Democrats are facing the same problem around the trans issue that Republicans were facing around abortion pre-Trump's announcement, which was, hey, if we just don't talk about it, hopefully people will forget our position. | ||
| And, you know, there's just but there were loudmouth, you know, conservatives who are sitting there saying. | ||
| Life conception begins the moment the date starts. | ||
| And they were absolutely no wiggle room whatsoever on the abortion issue. | ||
| And they were the face of the party to the left. | ||
| On the right, there's a million people who are like, oh no, this is okay. | ||
| Transing children. | ||
| There was that one video. | ||
| I don't know if you saw this girl. | ||
| She was in a wheelchair. | ||
| She had some kind of severe issue. | ||
| And she was being trans, and she was either Down syndrome or autistic, something like that, but clearly nonverbal, and they had just cut her breasts off, and they were all celebrating it, and it looked sickening to the average person, and I'm sorry, but you own it until you denounce it, and they refused to denounce it, so they own it, and that's their problem right now, where they are too afraid of their own party. | ||
| There was that one congressman from Massachusetts who, immediately upon announcing that... | ||
| You know, girls, biological girls, sports to be protected. | ||
| His chief consultant quit and they were protesting in front of his office and he never spoke about it again. | ||
| What is his name now? | ||
| Congress Democrat from northern Massachusetts. | ||
| I'll think of his name. | ||
| I remember that. | ||
| I'm just laughing because I'm like, all of these problems seem easily avoidable for Democrats. | ||
| Right? | ||
| Right. | ||
| They're afraid of their own base. | ||
| Yeah, but so I don't understand how they. | ||
| Well, they expect Trump's negatives to carry them through. | ||
| And look, Trump does have high negatives in some polling and some constituencies in the country. | ||
| The tariff messaging has been very wonky and people are a little nervous about it. | ||
| Yet and still. | ||
| You have to be something in order to eventually win the White House one day. | ||
| And Democrats, I want to go a little further down the road. | ||
| Democrats have a problem after the next presidential election. | ||
| In 2028, the map is the same as it is now. | ||
| In 2032 and beyond, because of the way the population changed and people moving to Texas and Florida, Republicans can win the White House starting in 2032, so long as they just carry Ohio. | ||
| And the Sun Belt. | ||
| So North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas. | ||
| As long as they care. | ||
| They don't need Pennsylvania anymore. | ||
| They don't need Michigan. | ||
| They don't need Wisconsin. | ||
| They don't need New Hampshire. | ||
| They don't need Minnesota. | ||
| They don't need Virginia. | ||
| All of those states that Democrats are competitive in. | ||
| They lost the last one. | ||
| They won the one before. | ||
| They lost. | ||
| They won whatever those key swing states. | ||
| They don't matter anymore just because of the census. | ||
| There is a timetable. | ||
| And they have very short. | ||
| There's a very short runway to sit there and carry themselves off to be a competitive party. | ||
| You know, a person like Wes Moore saying, hey, I'm off the table. | ||
| You have Josh Shapiro, who has all the personalities that they like, although he does the black sound where he pretends to be Obama. | ||
| And you have Gretchen Whitmer sitting there and cozying up to Trump, and Gavin Newsom cozying up to Trump. | ||
| But the ascending voices in the party are the AOCs, and they are the people who are, you know, being anti-Trump is the whole personality. | ||
| It's the entire purpose of them existing. | ||
| Rahm Emanuel, Obama's... | ||
| He's a former chief of staff, and he was a former ambassador and mayor from Chicago. | ||
| He's thinking about running for president, so he's doing this podcast tour right now. | ||
| And he's getting absolutely battered because he's running on this moderate issue of like, hey, you know, this is not really great. | ||
| And these podcasts, these left-wing podcasts, are ripping him to shreds because that's really where the party is. | ||
| It is a party of college-educated white women, black women, and, you know, the alphabet soup. | ||
| Mafia and progressive nonprofits. | ||
| That's who's there. | ||
| That's who is there. | ||
| It doesn't mean that they can't ever win a House seat. | ||
| It doesn't mean they can't flip the House. | ||
| It doesn't mean that Trump's negatives won't matter in these middle-of-the-road House districts. | ||
| But for a presidency, for the long haul, for these swing states, they have a brand that they have to sit there and either shed... | ||
| Or fully embrace or figure out some other way. | ||
| But there's a very, very, very short runway. | ||
| 2028 is going to be the last time before a decade of hurt comes their way, unless Georgia goes permanently blue or North Carolina does. | ||
| But if either one of those two things happen, they have a very hard decade ahead of them. | ||
| One of the things I was just bringing up is this is why they're so adamant on mass migration. | ||
| With the net out-migration from these blue states you mentioned, the only other solution is going to be bring in as many illegal immigrants as possible so when that 2030 census happens, they can maintain some competitive numbers. | ||
| But I'm curious if that, like, are they going to be able to do that? | ||
| I mean, how many new illegal immigrants or migrants in general do they need to bring in to California to not lose any seats, and is it even possible? | ||
| I'm so glad you brought that up because I actually just wrote a piece about this for the Washington Examiner. | ||
| So in 2022, right, and then they did the census where they sat there and said these are the estimate number of house seats they were going to lose. | ||
| Illinois, California, and New York were slated to lose 10 house seats. | ||
| Five from California, three from New York, two from Illinois. | ||
| Because of both legal and illegal, both legal and illegal. | ||
| A majority of Americans are leaving those states in droves because they are failed states. | ||
| They have failed policies. | ||
| Democrats cannot run states. | ||
| Both legal and illegal immigrants moved to those states. | ||
| So when they readjusted it for 2024, that 10-seat loss was brought down to six seats. | ||
| Because enough, both legal and illegal, it is legal immigration, too. | ||
| Enough of them had moved to those states to offset the losses of Americans. | ||
| Immigration is the only pipeline Democrats have. | ||
| That being said, they're also moving to Florida and Texas. | ||
| But North Carolina, Georgia, and Tennessee were all slated to gain a House seat. | ||
| None of them will gain a House seat now at the rate that they're going. | ||
| But nonetheless, all those states will lose seats. | ||
| And there is enough there. | ||
| All you need is like two or three more seats. | ||
| And once that once that's there, it's over in Texas and Florida together without Arizona and Utah and Idaho are going to gain eight seats because both immigrants are going there and Americans are moving there in droves and there's nothing they could do about it. | ||
| It's really rough for them. | ||
| It's a double edged sword, though. | ||
| The one the one polling area where Trump seems to be doing the best is on immigration. | ||
| The American people want him to deport people. | ||
| Because the border is not broken anymore. | ||
| We had 11,000 border crossings in the first two months of Trump's presidency. | ||
| Border apprehensions, rather, in the first two months of Trump's presidency. | ||
| A year ago, it was like 300,000. | ||
| It's literally a 96% reduction. | ||
| Overnight, we didn't need any new policies. | ||
| We just need a new president. | ||
| Trump was right when he said that. | ||
| Even the mass deportations, even the ones that are getting huge media explosions, it hasn't moved the general public's opinion at all that immigration needs to be fixed and that we need both fewer numbers of legal immigrants. | ||
| Americans do want less. | ||
| We bring in 1.1 million legal immigrants per year. | ||
| They want about 500,000. | ||
| But they want less legal immigrants. | ||
| And they also... | ||
| They don't care. | ||
| They say, no, you broke the law. | ||
| You have to leave this country. | ||
| It is your own thing. | ||
| There is this proposal that Trump has that they're going to pay people $1,000 to leave the country on their own illegal immigrants. | ||
| Sweden has a policy like that that's been moderately successful. | ||
| They're actually just increasing to $35,000. | ||
| But if we have even a program where if you've been in the country for a year and we can prove it and you want to leave and you don't have a criminal record and $10,000, that's way faster and way cheaper than going through the courts. | ||
| Wait, $35,000? | ||
| Sweden's proposing an increase to $35,000 to allow migrants, if they want to leave the country and never return, they can get $35,000. | ||
| It's $1,000 in the U.S. right now. | ||
| The DHS proposal was $1,000. | ||
| Sweden has $1,000 right now. | ||
| $35,000. | ||
| But think about it, Tim, that's an IQ test. | ||
| If you think, hey, I'm going to make less than $35,000 here, then... | ||
| We really don't need you. | ||
| I mean, that's a really good way of getting an IQ test going, where if you're like, no, I can stay here. | ||
| I'll have my own small business. | ||
| I'll do something really prosperous. | ||
| If you're like, 35 grand, I'm not going to make that in my whole entire life. | ||
| Let me just take the cash and go back to, you know, Brazil or wherever. | ||
| That's a good metric for how the kinds of people we should have versus they don't. | ||
| And it'd be once again, we spend way more in the court system and way more time. | ||
| If this could accelerate it and get people out faster, it's not a bad way of thinking about it. | ||
| Think about how much net money you'd save, even though it's unjust and they shouldn't The immigration thing, though, is a double-edged sword is what I was mentioning because Trump's polling so well on it, but they rely on it to bolster their Electoral College votes. | ||
| There's sort of a... | ||
| Terrifying realization in that. | ||
| Democrats know they're engaged in unpopular activities the American voter does not like, but they will gain electoral college votes just because people in our districts will vote Democrat no matter what. | ||
| So they're outright telling us they don't care for the democratic process. | ||
| Right. | ||
| And it's also, think about the unfairness of it. | ||
| Most immigrants don't vote. | ||
| Most illegal immigrants usually don't vote. | ||
| I mean, there's a few cases, but not many. | ||
| But most immigrants don't vote. | ||
| So if you're in AOC's district, right, or you're in a district in Los Angeles, a very heavy immigrant district, you... | ||
| Really only need like 90,000 votes to win because most people who live in the district who make it up aren't voting. | ||
| If you live in Ohio or New Hampshire or a state with a district that's very populated, equally populated, but has a lot more registered voters, you need a quarter of a million or 300,000 votes to win. | ||
| It really becomes an unfair system as a whole for candidates and Americans who have much their vote counts for. | ||
| Your vote counts a lot more in a district that's heavily immigrant because most of those people who are... | ||
| You're representing the census, representing the district, cannot vote for or against you. | ||
| That's part of the unfairness. | ||
| And if we sat there and said, hey, let's have a freeze, or let's reduce numbers and let's deport illegals, maybe Texas and Florida would lose a House seat as well, as well as New York, California, and Illinois losing a ton. | ||
| But Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, those states with overrepresented populations of actual American citizens would also gain seats as well. | ||
| And that is the only way Democrats are keeping these sinking ships alive. | ||
| New York City, New York State, California, Illinois. | ||
| These are, I mean, Illinois is such a failed state. | ||
| A couple of years ago, someone won the lottery, the state lottery, and they couldn't even cash it because they couldn't pay the guy who won the lottery. | ||
| Like imagine quitting your job, telling your boss to F off, and you can't get your lottery ticket cashed in. | ||
| But that's how broke some of these states are. | ||
| And they don't have, their only way of facilitating a, you know, The only way Democrats are keeping these sinking ships alive. | ||
| And having immigrants come in and pour in. | ||
| But this is a very immediate issue. | ||
| One of the other issues that I've been tracking is the population decline. | ||
| So Gen Alpha right now is projecting to end this year, and there's only about 40 to 42 million, which is a dramatic drop-off. | ||
| You've got 69 million Gen Z, 72 million millennials, I think around 69 million Gen Xers. | ||
| In the next 10 years... | ||
| Starting right now, actually, they're calling it the demographic cliff, where because of the financial crisis in 2007, you didn't have anybody having kids. | ||
| We're supposed to have a bunch of 18-year-olds right now entering that workforce. | ||
| There's also that argument, and I don't know how Trump answers that. | ||
| I know he's offered up that baby bonus. | ||
| But that's not going to do anything for us in the immediate in terms of the labor force. | ||
| Democrats have been arguing immigration reverses this. | ||
| And there's even been some never-Trumpers who have argued mass migration to replace our decimated workforce. | ||
| Either way, it sounds like, you know, I feel like if we do that, then it's going to disrupt the American tradition. | ||
| It's going to shift the culture dramatically. | ||
| The people who come, I'm not saying they're bad people, but they don't have the same worldview or values. | ||
| Of course. | ||
|
unidentified
|
But then there's also the concern, no people. | |
| No, this is my episode for a numbers game coming up, for my podcast numbers game coming up this Thursday. | ||
| So 2007, this class, sorry, 2025, the high school class that's graduating right now is the biggest population, sheer population size. | ||
| Of high school graduates that ever existed, and so far that ever will exist. | ||
| It's gotten smaller every single class size since. | ||
| The graduating class of 2042 will be smaller than the class of 2025 because people had less and less children. | ||
| Two, three primary issues. | ||
| One, the group that actually had the... | ||
| Biggest drop-off on birth rates were Latinos in the mid-2000s. | ||
| As they assimilated, they didn't have three children. | ||
| Hispanics have like 1.9 on average. | ||
| Black Americans have very few children. | ||
| They actually have fewer children than whites do now. | ||
| Wow, I know that. | ||
| Black fertility has... | ||
| There's virtually no teen pregnancy anymore, especially not compared to the 90s when you and I were growing up. | ||
| That doesn't exist in the same numbers whatsoever. | ||
| And the white numbers have declined, but not nearly what black and Hispanic numbers have. | ||
| Hispanic numbers are higher than whites, but a lot of that is actually due to migration and immigration. | ||
| Remember, there's two things I want you to think about. | ||
| One, China, India, Brazil, Mexico, these big, big countries, they all have more deaths per year than they do have births. | ||
| All of these countries, their fertility rate have all plummeted. | ||
| In the future, in 10 years from now, China will be a net importer of workers. | ||
| India will be a net importer of workers. | ||
| So will Mexico. | ||
| They will all need low-skilled workers. | ||
| There is going to be fewer and fewer countries that have the population of young people to fill those jobs. | ||
| Two, our workforce participation rate is still only 62.6%. | ||
| It used to be over 68%. | ||
| The financial crisis took 6% of the labor force. | ||
| 6% labor force never came back after the 2007 financial crisis. | ||
| They need to be reengaged in some capacity whatsoever. | ||
| And then as far as a baby bump goes, they're... | ||
| Our alternatives, the government can do both local, state, and federal to sit there and increase birth rates, but they have to be very, very smart about it. | ||
| Building condominiums in cities where they have a two-bedroom, two-bathroom, and 1,000 square feet is not how you facilitate growing families. | ||
| It's just not. | ||
| There's a lot of things that they could do that they've not been smart about. | ||
| They've never even approached it. | ||
| So immigration, yes, it could do it, but there are a lot of downsides. | ||
| You mentioned civic engagement. | ||
| You mentioned society. | ||
| There's a... | ||
| Famous, famous book called Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam from 2000. | ||
| The number one thing that degrades and declines civic engagement, civic nationalism, anything to do with wanting to be around people like you and different than you, is mass immigration. | ||
| It's the worst, worst, worst thing that you could do for a society when it comes to social capital and social trust. | ||
| So there are a lot of downsides. | ||
| There are ways to grow the native population, and they should pursue them on every course. | ||
| But what's going to happen in the United States? | ||
| Our labor force is shrinking. | ||
| Our labor force is shrinking, but also a third of our labor force is not even in the labor market. | ||
| 35% of people between ages 18 to 64 who are not in school and are not retired are not working. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Neat. | |
| So there's a lot of domestic labor to find if we can sit there and engage them. | ||
| I think that that's part of it. | ||
| I think that's how you deal with it in the middle, and then you sit there and work on trying to increase birth rates going forward. | ||
| Do you think it's possible that... | ||
| I'll put it this way. | ||
| The cultural issues we are facing, right? | ||
| You've got millennials are finally starting to have kids in their 30s. | ||
| They were failure to launch, developmentally delayed, whatever. | ||
| I think that there was a major cultural shift, either intentionally, I don't know if it was intentional, but you have people saying the world's overpopulated, don't have kids. | ||
| You've got the New York Times saying climate change, don't have kids. | ||
| How do you reverse a cultural trend like that? | ||
| You know, it's one thing to say, hey, we're going to make plans. | ||
| We're going to encourage people to have kids. | ||
| But you've got ingrained, entrenched ideologies in this country that say don't do it. | ||
| Right. | ||
| So there's two things. | ||
| So the only two countries or Western countries that have large population of children, Israel and the nation of Georgia and nation of Georgia, they had actually really bad fertility rates. | ||
| And the patriarch, basically their version of the Pope, the patriarch of the Georgian Orthodox Church, back in 2000, I want to say it's 15, 16, announced that for every third child born in the country, he was going to personally baptize them and people get selfies and whatnot. | ||
| And actually birth rates skyrocketed. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Wow. | |
| Yeah. | ||
| But the biggest thing that actually enables... | ||
| Birth rates are birth rates. | ||
| People have more children because they're around more children. | ||
| And I think that's part of it. | ||
| There's also a huge difference between conservatives and liberals. | ||
| Conservatives are having a decent amount of children. | ||
| Liberals have virtually none. | ||
| And young, I mean, that's just the truth. | ||
| There's a huge divide. | ||
| And I think that if you have, listen, if you're a conservative parent and you have a daughter, make sure that they don't surround themselves by liberals who tell them that hating kids is the whole thing. | ||
| I think people need to have a readjustment and the cultures of readjustment saying having kids. | ||
| Is a sacrifice. | ||
| It's a lot. | ||
| But at the same time, the reward is far outnumbers the cost benefit. | ||
| I mean, I recently had my first kid. | ||
| I don't think it was a sacrifice at all. | ||
| I feel like a lot of those narratives. | ||
| They tell people to prioritize. | ||
| You live in the middle of the woods by yourself. | ||
| Your idea of a good time is hanging with the chickens. | ||
| For other people, there's a sacrifice of time, there's a sacrifice of money, but not all sacrifice is a bad thing. | ||
| Going to the gym is a sacrifice, but there's benefits to it. | ||
| You know what I mean? | ||
| Eating well is a bit of a sacrifice. | ||
| It's much easier to get bad food, but the sacrifices pay off. | ||
| Having kids is a sacrifice. | ||
| You give up something, but you get a whole lot more. | ||
| Sacrifice is not a bad word. | ||
| Yeah, but I do feel like for a lot of liberals, they're told that—we were just talking about this on the IRL the other day—maximize your pleasure, minimize your pain, so don't bother having kids because you're just living for the now nihilism. | ||
| I've been arguing for a long time. | ||
| I guess the end result, it doesn't matter if we're arguing against liberals. | ||
| They're not having kids. | ||
| And so we are seeing that Gen Z, there's a huge uptick in Christianity. | ||
| There is a trend towards the right. | ||
| And there's a lot of people who think it's because we've won the arguments that conservatives, I say we as in they, I don't consider myself to be overtly conservative, but this political space has a better argument and young people are drifting towards freedom, meritocracy, etc. | ||
| I actually think that's a tiny component of it. | ||
| If you look at the 2000s... | ||
| Yeah, and I'll say two things. | ||
| One, I think that a problem for millennials, and as a millennial, I think we were told that we have more time than we do. | ||
| I think a lot of millennials were told, oh no, everyone can have a kid at age 40 and have no problems whatsoever, which is not true. | ||
| And secondly, I think that if places were really serious about this, about trying to get people started younger in life and not due to Gen Alpha like they did to Gen Z, to Gen Millennials rather, I don't see why we can't figure out accelerated programs. | ||
| and schools to get kids out of college by 20 and get kids out of high school by 16 or I don't know why we have to... | ||
| If they're capable, if they're smart, if they can get some kind of fellowship program or work program, getting them to adulthood faster will also make them have children faster. | ||
| I think that is part of it. | ||
| Going to school until your mid to late 20s is just... | ||
| I mean, that's the way you just forbid people to have kids because they have to go to school for so long. | ||
| Right. | ||
| I mean, they're getting out of school and they're 22 or 24. That's nuts. | ||
| But that's why I'm a big fan of, you know, Trump's moves against the Department of Education, reforming all of these things. | ||
| I think if we're going to have school systems, I prefer pod education, like your communities come together. | ||
| I also think it's insane to me that our schooling system in public schools is a one-size-fits-all because that's just... | ||
| Not correct. | ||
| Some kids are stupid. | ||
| Some kids are smart. | ||
| You can't put them all in the same place and say good luck because the smart kids are going to be like, why am I sitting here doing nothing? | ||
| And the dumb kids are going to be saying this is too fast. | ||
| So that change has happened. | ||
| But, you know, my point on the birth stuff is in 20 years, there's just no liberals. | ||
| Their values will largely fade away with the fact that they don't reproduce. | ||
| And I know that— Yeah, I mean, yeah, that's—I mean, there'll always be some conservative kids who are going to become a liberal, but—and, like, there were some liberal kids who become conservative. | ||
| But that is a big thing in those values, if those populations grow and where they're growing naturally. | ||
| You know, there's a town, like, called St. Mary's, Kansas. | ||
| You wouldn't know this town, but it's a town of, like, Latin mass Catholics. | ||
| They're very traditional, very religious, but it's not like a cult. | ||
| You can buy a house there if you want to. | ||
| It's in rural Kansas. | ||
| Their average population in this town is, like, 25. All the surrounding rural areas are, like, 57, 58. By convening around like-minded people of equal values or conservative values... | ||
| That tends to promote the idea of having families around those things. | ||
| And you've seen that in other parts of the country. | ||
| That's a very, very big part of it because it's just in the middle of nowhere. | ||
| But that's how you're seeing these other smaller areas of populations sit there and grow is by like-mindedness and by communal beliefs around ideas of religion, family, faith, freedom, all that other stuff. | ||
| Last question for you. | ||
| Quick one, I suppose. | ||
| Fox News poll said that Democrats are down relative to Republicans, but still Democrats are favored to win in 2026. | ||
| I'm wondering what you think happens. | ||
| I know we have a long way from the midterms, but based on what we're seeing now, how's it going to play out? | ||
| Because the Republicans have such a small majority, there's two things to consider. | ||
| One, if Ohio redistricts, right? | ||
| There's three House seats in Ohio that Republicans could redistrict and do mid-cycle redistricting to make them Republican. | ||
| That would at least bolster some of the numbers. | ||
| The last environment was an R plus two. | ||
| If it goes to a D plus two, which is a four-point swing, the good thing for Republicans is that there's 13 Democrats in Trump one seats. | ||
| Republicans can pick off a few of those. | ||
| It's much harder for Democrats to pick off Trump seats because there's only three Republicans in Kamala seats, and they're much closer towards the middle than the Trump seats, where there's a handful of Democrats who will be the last Democrat to ever represent the area. | ||
| Henry Cular, for example, down in South. | ||
| He's the last Marcy Captur from Ohio. | ||
| These are dinosaurs who are the last ones to hold their seats. | ||
| If the realignment continues, if Hispanics and young people show up and they still vote Republican, Republicans, even if they lose the House, it won't be by very much. | ||
| Interesting. | ||
| Well, Ryan, it's been a blast. | ||
| Thanks for joining me. | ||
| Where can people find you? | ||
| Go on Twitter at Ryan Grodowski. | ||
| My podcast, A Numbers Game. | ||
| Please listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or if you listen to podcasts. | ||
| And my newsletter is the National Populous Newsletter on Substack. | ||
| You can go to natpopnewsletter.com. | ||
| All right on, man. | ||
| Thanks for hanging out. | ||
| It's been a blast. | ||
| We'll see you soon. | ||
| Thank you. | ||
| All right. | ||
| Well, that was fun. | ||
| Always great to get the insights from Ryan here. | ||
| And I hope he's right about those midterms. | ||
| So, my friends, make sure you smash that like button, share the show with everyone. | ||
| You know, we, of course, will be rating our good friend Russell Brand, who is, I believe, is coming up right now. | ||
| Let me grab that link for you guys. | ||
| And then, of course, we're going to be back with more segments throughout the day. | ||
| And we are going to be live at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRL. | ||
| I'm going to grab that link. | ||
| We're going to launch that raid for you guys. | ||
| Send you all over to hang out with Russell. | ||
| Get it going. | ||
| Let me see if I can grab... | ||
| I think I got a minute. | ||
| I can grab a Rumble rant real quick, right? | ||
| I tried to get those in, but since we started doing these... | ||
|
unidentified
|
Oh, I can't read it now. | |
| All right. | ||
| We had just one, but I'm not going to be able to get to it because I can't read it. | ||
| So my friends, follow me on X and Instagram at TimCast. | ||
| Thank you so much for hanging out. | ||
| It's going to be interesting. | ||
| There's a lot going on and also a little going on with the constant battle between Trump. | ||
| And the Democrats, basically anything he does being negative, you always have that story lingering. | ||
| But I gotta be honest, it gets droll and repetitive. | ||
| So, of course, we're here, you know, we're doing production behind the scenes, and we're trying to find stories we care about that... | ||
| I'll put it this way. | ||
| You know, I did a segment a little while ago about GTA 6. The game got delayed. | ||
| And I was like, I don't know, I just... | ||
| That mattered to me, I guess. | ||
| But there's something to consider for us here. | ||
| As we age and we care about different things, the same is true for those that watch the show, the core audience. | ||
| And so what the younger generation cares about is going to be different from what we care about. | ||
| And when you get dry politics, like basically, Democrats are failing so miserably, they're not making news anymore. | ||
| And so it's just, what did Trump do today? | ||
| So that seems to be what's dominating in the news cycle, my friends. | ||
| But we'll wrap it up there. | ||
| Smash the like button. | ||
| Share the show. | ||
| Follow me on Instagram at TimCast. |
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