March 19, 2026 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec
48:26
Is It POSSIBLE For A Republican To Win In California?
Jack Posobiec and guests analyze California's potential Republican victory, noting how demographic shifts in the Central Valley could allow independent Elaine Colotti to defeat consolidated Democrats like Eric Swalwell. The discussion highlights a $750 billion audit of missing funds and an FBI-IRS investigation into Antifa nonprofits exploiting 2017 tax laws for unchecked donations. Experts describe Antifa as a leaderless, hydra-like network adapting tactics from frog costumes to "walls of moms" to evade accountability while pursuing regime change. Ultimately, the episode suggests that forensic accounting and demographic realignments may expose deep fractures within the current political establishment. [Automatically generated summary]
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This is what happens when the 4th turning meets 5th generation warfare.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host, Jack Pesovic.
Christ is King.
Welcome to Human Events Daily.
I am Bo Davidson in our Washington, D.C. studios, alongside Benny Ray Harmony, who is Jack Pesovic's first producer.
I don't know if a lot of you know that, but Benny is.
Founding producer back in, what was it, 2020, 2021?
Good times.
Why don't we tell our audience a little bit about what that was like back at that time?
It was the start of Human Events, really.
This is when Turning Point was putting the show together and it was going on Turning Point Live.
And it was kind of my first job in podcast and TV.
And Jack, honestly, I look back and he taught me so much.
I don't think that I would really have the understanding of this industry if it wasn't for doing that for Jack.
It was pretty cool.
Well, Benny, let's get to some of these top stories today because a lot is going on right now in Capitol Hill.
We have the Japanese prime minister who is here.
Ireland's leader was also here as well.
Tell us some of the top stories and events you've been covering this week in Capitol Hill.
Yeah, well, obviously the big conversation is Iran and the war going on.
But one of the things that President Trump's been doing this week is he is not halting foreign conversations.
He is continuing the movement.
He, like you said, he had on St. Patrick's Day.
He had the Ireland leader here where they participated in a lot of traditional kind of ceremonies that they've been doing for 50 plus years, the passing of the shamrock bowl and just lots of great conversations.
But it's interesting to see how these foreign leaders are still, they want to talk to him, but they're staying very neutral.
And you see with the Japanese prime minister coming today and the Ireland leader that came just a few days ago, they kind of don't want to speak about what is happening because they have a lot of interests of their own, but they also want President Trump to be on their good side.
And so they're kind of finding that neutrality in it all.
And so that has been a huge thing at the White House.
But obviously, Capitol Hill is booming right now with we still have the DHS shutdown that's happening, the new confirmation of Senator Mark Wayne Mullins.
So we have just had so much information here this week.
That's great.
That's a great topic actually to talk about, Benny, because we've got Mark Wayne Mullen and Rand Paul has had a very adversarial relationship with Mark Wayne Mullen.
And we saw some of this play out.
I saw a clip where Rand Paul was basically saying, do you want to say this stuff to my face, things that you've said to me in the past?
It seemed like almost it was a Democrat versus a Republican in a lot of ways.
And what's interesting to me, Benny, is that John Fetterman voted for Mark Wayne Mullen and Rand Paul voted against him in committee.
Yeah, and so that is intriguing to me.
We were just talking about this.
If that flip wouldn't have happened, it would have been a tied confirmation hearing.
And so, but the important thing to note, Bo, is the Rand Paul, he is very similar to that Thomas Massey, kind of that libertarian, I would say.
He's very conservative, but he also challenges it a little bit.
And I guess they had some sort of fight or something in the past where Senator Mullins, he had, he's a very, he's a bold guy, Senator Mullen, and he had said something, you know, kind of criticizing.
I think he said he could understand why someone could attack Rand Paul.
I wanted to say that to my face here in public.
In that committee hearing, he basically said, why would you say that to me?
So I kind of think Rand Paul was using that a little bit as a vengeful tactic, maybe.
But it's pretty interesting to see how he was the only Republican to vote against him for.
And it's interesting, Benny, before we started, I was thinking about John Fetterman and how he has seemed to be the only voice of reason or sanity in the Democratic Party.
He's been very supportive of this military action operation Epic Fury.
And of course, just understanding the geopolitics of it, the global consequences, what happens with China.
And even if we look at the Prime Minister of Japan being here today, they've got no oil.
They have no oil.
So they have to have this conversation with President Trump, who does hold all the cards.
And what we hope doesn't happen, and we've seen this in some headlines today, Benny, is Trump is saying, I may go bomb basically these oil fields or these gas refineries if you keep taking actions against Qatar.
Because now what's happening is Iran is attacking oil hubs that are in ports that are in some of these neighboring Arab nations, which is causing, drawing their ire as well.
The thing about the Fetterman situation, too, is I think he can, he's laying a very good foundation for the Democrats to kind of look at him as this is something that is good for everything that is happening.
He's not looking at it from a Democrat-Republican perspective, in my opinion.
I think that he is really looking at the facts and saying, listen, you know, I don't maybe agree with everything you're doing, but this is what's best for the nation.
And so I think it's giving, hopefully, starting some sort of, you know, movement on Capitol Hill to bring some of those voices that maybe have been very, you know, against Trump and against Republicans and kind of bringing them over to understand in a different perspective.
So.
Yeah, I agree.
I just think it's very interesting how John Fetterman has been shaking up the entire Democratic Party.
People almost, people keep saying, I think he's, is he going to turn Republican?
Like, what's going on?
Yeah, I think Sean Hannity was asked by President Trump to say, hey, you should run as a Republican.
Who knows if that will actually happen, but he does seem to be a voice of sanity.
Well, some other things that are happening, we've got the latest on Corey Booker, Senator Booker, who was trying to stop Donald Trump from his military authority in Iran.
Of course, GOP senators block that.
That's not going to happen, Benny.
So anything else in particular on Capitol Hill this week we should be paying attention to in terms of the reporting you've been doing?
Well, I would just, I mean, I would say that war powers conversation was huge and that it got blocked 53 to 47.
You know, that really kind of showed the administration, okay, maybe we have some standing on this.
But the other thing I mentioned at the very beginning, like we talked about, the Mark Wayne Mullen, but the DHS still not being funded.
This is really becoming an issue with airports.
You just got to say, yeah.
It's a conversation that needs to continue.
Yeah, and I think hopefully Democrats will be looked at as they're the ones that are styming this.
So, you know, it is important.
It's important to those DHS folks at this board, the TSA folks.
I mean, everybody needs to pitch in and help on this.
And I do want to mention one story before we go as well, that the U.S. has deployed A-10 Warthogs, Apache helicopters, as stand-in weapons take point against Iranian drones.
We're changing our tactics.
This came from Pete Hegseth's press conference this morning.
David Zeere had a big question there.
So we're following all of these updates and press conferences from the Department of War, Benny.
And before we go with the Department of War, you know, they're requesting the $200 billion more dollars for this war.
So we'll talk about that a little bit more as well.
All right, we'll be right back with more Human Events Daily.
War Tactics Against Iranian Drones00:11:39
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Welcome back to Human Events Daily.
I'm Bo Davidson alongside Benny Ray Harmony.
We want to bring in a guest now.
Her name is Elaine Colotti.
She's a real estate developer, a designer, and an entrepreneur, and she's appeared on HGTV.
And she's currently running for governor in the state of California as an independent.
Elaine, thanks for being with us today on Human Events Daily.
Hey, thank you for having me on.
I'm so excited.
Well, Elaine, this race is fascinating to me.
You know, I interviewed a gentleman a couple weeks ago, an Asian man who's running for governor there as well.
It seems like this race is wide open and that Democrats are fractured when it comes to this.
There's at least eight candidates, I believe, running.
They have not consolidated behind one candidate.
What can you tell me about the state of affairs in this particular gubernatorial race and how you factor into it?
It's the same old playbook, right?
So what they're doing is the Democrats are going to try to block out any independents or any good voices.
So they're going to put this debate together.
It's happening next week at USC.
It's private.
They're going to avoid all of the legal ramifications of having a public debate where everyone gets equal time.
They've handpicked all their candidates so that they can have two rise above.
It will be Swawel and Mayhan, who are funded by all the big billionaires and tech and all that.
And they're going to try to block Carus, what's his name, Hilton and Chad Bianco.
They're going to try to block them.
And someone like me, who would win the debate if I was at a podium, they will never let in.
It's like this race of the tallest midget.
It's ridiculous.
They're polling at like 12%, 8%, 7%, and they're at a microphone.
Now, Elaine, why is this?
Because I think the consensus among a lot of people that don't live in California is that it's a foregone thing, that California is blue as it comes.
All the Republicans moved out.
All the Republican money moved out, that no Republican stands a chance.
But in one poll that I saw this morning, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco were the top two candidates.
And what's interesting to me is that California uses this top two primary system where the two highest vote getters, regardless of party, move on to the general election, which means the Democrats risk being shut out in November if they don't have someone in those top two.
How does this work?
I mean, that's kind of a crazy system.
Did Democrats gamble on the fact that it would always be two Democrats in those top two slots?
I think that that's where it went wrong.
Exactly.
It's called a jungle primary.
And it's the one opportunity for someone like me to actually get in charge.
Somebody who's like a business person who can do math and understands a budget and a balance sheet, a schedule of values.
God forbid I should get in.
Someone like me who says, yes, audit everything that's been stolen.
We need to find the $750 billion that's missing.
That's why they're going to block it, because this jungle primary allows for someone like me polling at 4.6% as an independent, which is as high as Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, who've been in the race, by the way, for well over a year.
I just got in about 20 days ago.
Why did I get in?
Because the bench is so shallow, it's like a puddle, number one.
Number two, if any of these guys win, they can't run the state.
So Elaine, tell me the top two or three issues that you feel are the most important issues right now with California.
You mentioned auditing it.
I think every state should have a Doge personally.
I think we've seen that.
We need to see where corruption is, where waste, fraud, and abuse exist.
For you, if you're speaking to the people of California, which you undoubtedly have, but just to the rest of the country right now, what are the top two or three things that California needs fixing that you specifically can solve?
Okay, so very important question.
Number one, I filmed this thing called Mayors Matter and I talked to 48 mayors across the state out of 52.
All of them say the same two things.
These are mayors running California, Democratic, Republican, and Independent.
We need two things, okay?
We need safe streets and economic development, safe streets and economic development.
There is no interest in all of this polarizing stuff about transing children or it's not interesting to them.
They want to have business in their streets.
We have no businesses.
All of our businesses are closed.
They have unfunded mandates in Sacramento.
They all need to be abolished.
They're stealing land.
They have put all of our money into middlemen, NGOs, special interest, and nonprofit.
All of that money is missing.
It's upwards of $750 billion.
When it was asked to be audited, Gavin Newsom, he vetoed it.
They've taken away Bradley Burns' tax on online sales.
This has taken all of our money away.
The trial lawyers cost each family $3,000 a month in expensive cities, $9,000 a month.
This cannot be remedied by Democrats and Republicans because trial lawyers, guess what?
They fund Democrats and Republicans.
The reality is, is we are going to do an exact repeat of what we already did with Swawel.
He is no difference.
In fact, I think he might be less charismatic and worse than Newsome.
And Elaine, I'm curious.
This week, one of the biggest things we saw was this 40-minute video from Nick Shirley exposing some of this fraud in Medicare and Medicaid and stuff like this.
What has the response from California residents been like regarding this and what are they saying?
Clearly, they are blown away.
Don't think that they don't know.
We don't know what to do about it.
I always say that Democrats are offensive animals.
We have been nice.
We have been donating our money.
Corporate donors, these huge corporate donors control the narrative.
That's what the billionaires are leaving over this billionaires tax.
This is crazy.
They pay 47% of our general fund.
We depend on billionaires 47%.
Out of 17.5 million taxpayers, okay, the money that we pay, someone like me, it takes me four years to buy one Patriot missile.
Think about how unsustainable it is.
We lose the billionaires.
They're gone over this billionaires tax.
We are going to lose $122 billion a year in our general budget.
We are not focused on things like this.
There's no narrative for it.
Why?
Because we get blocked by the billionaires who pay all the donors and all of the donors who pay for the politicians.
There's no middle ground.
We're going to get blocked out again.
We need you guys here.
Elaine, speaking of billionaires, I want to get your reaction to a CBS story.
I don't know if we have it to pull up on the screen just yet, but it's from Twitter and it's a CBS news story that says the FBI and IRS are going to be investigating nonprofits linked to Antifa.
This is a big deal.
Jack Pesopic has been talking about this for quite some time.
Here it is right here.
You can see this.
There's the headline, FBI and IRS to investigate nonprofit groups for domestic terrorism links sources say.
Especially tax fraud crimes.
You're in a state where Antifa has been big.
The whole West Coast is.
I'm curious what you think about your reaction, your reaction to this particular story and whether you think that there are nonprofit groups in California that could be held accountable as a result of some of these investigations.
Okay, first of all, when the Tax Act and Jobs Act in 2017 was passed, people like me who had donation lines on my tax credit, on my tax form were taken away.
They basically said, you can still have a deduction, but you need to send 100% of your taxes to the federal government.
During that time, 37 million households across the United States and $20 billion a year went into funds unchecked by people like me.
Okay, so the money that's now going to Antifa and places like that is because it's completely unchecked with NGOs.
And not only that, it's by design.
The Biden administration set these things up so they can't be audited.
They have no requirements to be audited.
Once the money arrives into any kind of slush fund, if Antifa is in there, you would never know it because they are not under audit requirements, even though they are acting as a non-government, non-government agency, okay?
An organization that is non-government.
They have no requirements to do an audit.
What do you think is going to happen?
Of course the money is going to go to terrorism.
There's no way to stop it and no one's asking the question.
Speaking of it in the artistic community, I have to say this just because I lived in the Hollywood area for about five years.
I know you're very dialed into the Hollywood scene and motion pictures and TV.
Did you see one battle after another?
Yeah, I did not.
Okay, so I'm just curious only because, as it won Best Picture at the Oscars recently, this whole film is complete garbage in terms of it basically supports an Antifa-like group.
The very things we're going through right now.
And this reminded me that the entire group of Hollywood, and you're sitting in this state, which has these bubbles of liberalism, awarding a film, giving it best picture, best director, best adapted screenplay for something that completely glorifies Antifa.
And I think that's art replicating life.
It is.
The problem people don't understand is like you live in Hollywood to be an actor and to work in that industry, and you have watched your industry be completely strip mined and taken from you.
And then the people that control you are the people that hire you, which are the big studios.
And the studios are under all these DEI, you know, mandates, essentially.
We are a mandated state, okay?
Sacramento mandates everything, including sanctuary cities, SB 79, all of the homeless programs.
Everything is mandated, and these mandates are unfunded.
And this includes DEI, not just in Hollywood, but also in schools.
And all of these actors who are really pretty nice people, just want to earn a living and get their voice out there.
They are all under the same mandates.
Imagine.
And they're in these movies that don't have any originality and are scripted based on a very specific narrative.
And then the Oscars happen.
And as you can see, it was poorly attended.
It was even the clothes.
I mean, everything was just bad.
Why did Chanel bounce the day after the Oscars?
Maybe they didn't want to be on the Oscars.
I don't know.
But my feeling is that industry has been completely strip mined of any type of individuality and true creativeness.
I agree with you, Elaine.
And interestingly enough, you're saying that you're not allowed on this debate on the 24th.
I got to ask, finally, I mean, does a former mistress of Eric Swalwell, the great Chinese spy Fang Fang, does she get to make the debate?
I mean, what are the qualifications at this point if you can't make it?
Who do I have to sleep with to get on this debate?
Oscars Industry Strip Mined00:15:40
Exactly.
That's the Hollywood way.
That's the casting couch, apparently.
Ask Eric Swalwell about that.
Thank you, Elaine, so much for being on Human Events Daily.
Thank you.
We'll be right back with more HED coming up.
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All right, welcome back to Human Events Daily.
Bo and Benny here holding down the fort for the great Jack Bisobic.
Benny, I want to kind of dive into this Antifa story a little bit more.
And guys, if you wouldn't mind putting the tweet back up there from Jennifer Jacobs, this is from CBS.
She says, the scoop is that FBI and IRS agents are forming a new initiative to investigate nonprofit organizations over suspected possible links to domestic terrorism.
Sources briefed on the matter told Sarah Lynch and me at CBS News.
So just a little backstory on this, Benny, and for our viewers, in December, Attorney General Pam Bondi ordered law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to prioritize efforts to investigate and prosecute groups and individuals who belong to the anti-fascist Antifa movement or are deemed, quote, extremist.
The memo asked law enforcement agents to consider potential tax crimes in which extremist groups are suspected of defrauding the Internal Revenue Service.
This coordinated effort allows agencies to leverage their respective strengths, including IRS CI specialized expertise in financial investigations, to support enforcement actions and safeguard national security.
So the new mission control command center that is probing nonprofits will be based at the FBI with agents from IRS criminal investigation working on one-year temporary assignments, one of the sources added.
Now, it's not clear, I guess, who will be targeted for this, but Bondi's memo instructed all federal law enforcement agencies to scour their files for intelligence on Antifa groups and forward it to the FBI.
Benny, this is big because you mentioned to me, you know, Jack Bisobic was at the Antifa Roundtable with President Trump.
What came out of that?
Because I know Jack's been talking about this for a long time.
It's one of the reasons he's been so explosive on this front.
How important is it to get some of these groups and get their funding and the fact that there could be tax fraud crimes against them?
Well, Jack has always been one of, I mean, I feel like he really started part of the going after Antifa movement.
I mean, he was going undercover in these cells and he was on the front lines with this.
And so when President Trump, they put this roundtable together because the president, he wanted to understand this violence that is coming through, specifically after Charlie died.
It was this roundtable happened very, I mean, within a couple weeks.
And he had all of these different frontline individuals and Jack was one of them.
And he was telling, Jack was going through, explaining the times and the danger that he was in going through this.
The other big thing, like you're talking about, is the movement of money.
Now, this is a big conversation because it has to be coming from somewhere.
They are getting, they are being financed.
I mean, these are well-financed groups.
This goes back to Black Lives Matter.
This goes back to these massive organizations.
And people just think they're just, oh, protesters and they're just out doing whatever they're doing.
But it's a work like that.
And so PM Bondi and the DOJ have going after this.
I think it's probably one of the most important things that we've seen.
Yeah, it is.
And I just want to make the comment too that to date, there have been relatively few public criminal cases involving Antifa, but you may remember the most prominent was in northern Texas where nine people accused of being part of a so-called Antifa cell were convicted earlier this month for their roles in using weapons and explosives, providing material support to terrorists, obstruction, and attempted murder of an Alvaredo Alvarado police officer and correctional officer at the Prairieland Ice Detention Center.
And I just got to say, Benny, just with our last guest with Elaine there and talking about this, that as I thought about watching this movie, One Battle After Another, which I like Paul Thomas Anderson, he's a good director.
He's made some great movies, but I couldn't believe that he talked about, he thought it was a moral duty to pass this on to his kids.
And as I watched this movie, for those of you who haven't seen it, and it's a long, long movie, it is supporting the basic things that Antifa is responsible for.
So, you know, I just, I find the fact that the Academy gave an award to a movie and a group of people that so support a movement like Antifa, I find to be just abominable.
I do want to bring in our guest, though, Rich Barris, I believe, is here.
He's a great pollster and a great friend of the show and a great friend of Real America's Voice.
Rich, how are you?
Living the dream.
How you guys doing today?
Thanks for having me.
We're doing great.
Rich, tell us some of the local elections that you're keeping focus on right now that we need to be paying attention to.
Well, before we go into the future, I honestly would point at the past.
We have some very key Senate races that are going to tell us a lot about where voters are right now.
And honestly, the two most important ones that have happened and we were waiting for happened recently, which was, I think, North Carolina in Texas.
Why?
Because one was a quintessential battleground state.
It's been read at the presidential level, but we've seen very competitive Senate races.
It's about as purple as you get when it comes to that and the gubernatorial contests that has elected Democrats.
And the other one was just Texas, which because, of course, if Democrats think they're going to have a banner year, they'll throw a lot of money into Texas.
And what we did see in Texas, it was significant.
Democrats did vote in considerable numbers.
And some of the demographic groups we're keeping an eye on, especially Hispanic voters and new Trump Hispanic voters, did seem to participate quite a bit in that Democratic primary.
Rich, hang on with us if you would because we're going to carry you over in the next block.
I want to go back to California as well because with our last guest, we talked about California.
I want to know more about that.
So let's keep you on, bring you back in just a moment.
And guys, we'll be right back with more Human Events Daily.
Where's Jack?
Where's Jack?
Where is he?
Jack, I want to see you.
Great job, Jack.
Thank you.
What a job you do.
You know, we have an incredible thing.
We're always talking about the fake news and the bad, but we have guys, and these are the guys should be getting public.
Welcome back to Human Events Daily.
Bo Davidson and Benny Ray Harmony here.
We still have Rich Barris, which we brought in back from the last block because we didn't get much time with him.
Rich, based on our private conversation with Elaine Collati, who is running as an independent in California, this is a fascinating race because as I said to her, I think a lot of Republicans and conservatives think that, you know, California is a foregone conclusion.
It's blue.
A Republican can't win there, yet Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco hold the top two places, which means they could ice a Democrat out because they're not consolidating behind Eric Swalwell.
Is this a real possibility?
And explain to me the differences in demographics that have happened even since 2018.
Yeah, I'm glad you bring up California because this is one of the more interesting races that we have coming up as opposed to the ones we talked about in the last segment that already happened.
And the reason why is, you know, in 2018, this was, we do think about this as a big blue state.
You had Travis Allen and John Cox trying to split the vote.
And then you had Gavin Newsome on the Democratic side with Mayor Villa Garosa.
And Mayor Villa Garosa eventually collapsed and Gavin Newsom was able to take the standard bear, right?
And you had John Cox, who got the endorsement of President Trump at the time, but Travis Allen had this core base that didn't want to vote for Cox.
But for people who don't know, you can ice a party out because it's the top vote getters advancing.
That's the way the rules are in California.
So if Democrats, because the rules are reversed this time, we have three top voting vote-getting Democrats and two top vote-getting Republicans.
And if Democrats don't consolidate, they could get iced out here because it's a different state demographically than it was in 2018.
And even with vote preference, you know, it's interesting.
This is something I mentioned during the break in 2020 when we saw so many battleground states move toward the left or toward Joe Biden.
California kept shifting to the right.
It's been happening under the radar for many years.
And if this trend continues, what it means is that Democrats have got to learn, even in a big blue state, to consolidate behind a candidate.
Otherwise, they could split the vote too much and end up with two Republicans running.
Rich, what is the likelihood of that happening?
I mean, I'm trying to look at this with, you know, glass half full here.
But I mean, how likely is it?
Because eventually the Democrats are going to realize, especially the money, they've got to get behind Swalwell.
But he's not a very likable guy.
And so I'm just wondering, how likely is it?
I mean, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco surely know this.
They know that the top two vote getters move on.
How likely is that to happen?
The likelihood based on two things in my mind.
One is Republican turnout.
In California, typically there could be lower turnout for Republicans in off-cycle years like this.
But if they don't do that, and again, some of these demographics that are voting in Republican primaries changing over time.
So if they get out the vote in sufficient numbers, which there's mixed evidence so far on how Republicans and Democrats have been voting.
But if they do do that, then of course it increases the likelihood.
The other factor Republicans have no control over, and that's what you just mentioned, which is whether or not Democrats get their act together.
And here's one of the reasons to give, you know, if you're a Republican, it gives you a little ray of hope.
Democrats, as well as they have been doing in special elections, are leaderless and they're in disarray.
Gavin Newsom, ironically, the outgoing governor, he's been trying to take that mantle of leader, but it doesn't really seem to be where even in his own backyard, he hasn't been able to corral a base of his own.
He hasn't been able to command the loyalty of a segment of the Democratic coalition that could help a candidate in this race like that.
So, I mean, one thing is completely in Republican control.
They get out to vote and they have a lot of control over this.
They can have a great impact.
The other is really on Democrats.
And, you know, that remains to be seen.
But I do think that it's more possible than people realize.
The Central Valley is not blue anymore, right?
Once upon a time, that was the case.
Orange County, very swingy.
It was trending Democratic, but it moved back under President Trump a little bit.
So, you know, there's a lot of, there's a lot in flux in that state, I guess is the point I'm trying to make.
And if they can get that Central Valley vote out, then you leave Democrats effectively fighting over two metropolitan areas, which there's a lot of votes in.
Don't get me wrong.
But it's not a place you want that.
Rich, what is some of the latest polling that you have?
If you could give us kind of a sneak peek of Americans' feelings towards Iran, this has shifted, even has fractured, of course, MAGA.
It has fractured a lot of the conservatives who say, hey, wait a minute, Trump said no foreign wars, as opposed to those who believe in the mission of this overall.
What are you seeing in some of your polling?
Polling Iran has been really fascinating for a pollster.
And you get bored after a while asking, do you approve or disapprove?
It gets real monotonous, but it's interesting because it's changing who's identifying as MAGA.
It's changing the size of that coalition.
It's changing the race, age, the demographic subgroups that we've been measuring and tracking for years with that identification.
Ultimately, Republicans and people who voted for President Trump in November of 24, they want to get behind him, right?
But the fact of the matter is they didn't vote for foreign conflicts.
So there is a section of his vote that is struggling with this a lot.
The problem, I think, the biggest problem that I see for the president is that the rally around the flag effect that he got.
And when we first polled this before it happened, it was 70% opposed, only a little over 20% supported.
He has gotten a rally around the flag.
We're going to release a poll very soon showing where that's come, but it's a weak one.
Historically, it's a very, very weak one.
So what the president's advisor should be telling him is that you have limited time to sew this thing up before it can really get on pop.
It's already unpopular with independents.
It's unpopular with Democrats.
And it's unpopular with a part of his own coalition.
So, I mean, the clock is ticking on how long this can be drawn out without causing severe political damage.
And Rich, I saw something on CNN the other day, actually, and it was talking about, you know, the 100% of MAGA supports President Trump, right?
Going forward, I mean, these next two years are really important.
And obviously, you know that you spend a lot of time looking at all of this.
Where, I mean, Bo, I know he kind of just spoke about that.
Where does that leave MAGA going into the midterms, going into even 2028?
I just want, I'm so glad you brought that up because I got to tell you, I find this funny that after 10 years of pollsters all over legacy media failing to poll President Trump precisely because they could not poll the MAGA coalition are suddenly these authorities on polling MAGA, right?
And all of my pollster friends, you know, yesterday when we saw that clip, we were just laughing.
Harry Enton is not a dumb guy when it comes to statistics.
Getting 100% of a subgroup something that large is basically impossible.
It was just ludicrous on its face.
It reminded me of Quinn and Piak in 2020 polling and saying that Donald Trump had 0% of the black vote, right?
Or 2%.
It's just ridiculous on its face.
Tracking Funds at CPAC00:13:35
I think this is a real danger to the president's coalition going forward.
It's a little bit funny because a year ago, we would have polled and asked, who is, do you identify as America first or do you identify as MAGA?
And the group of people that would have said yes to that was younger, less white, right?
Than the group that is saying it now.
So that's why I said it is an interesting time for a pollster because there's so much going on.
But at the end of the day, the group now that is the most loyal to the president is not enough to win an election.
And that is the most important part of all of this.
That's, you know, the new MAGA, these other people that he risks losing in the coalition, they are how he got from negative 4.5% in the popular vote to about a point and a half.
They are that difference.
So I mean, it's horrible to say, but honestly, sometimes when it comes to politics, this is a game of addition.
And sometimes some voters really do matter more than others when you're considering what to do and decision making.
You need to win to affect your policies, right?
You need to win to advance, you know, your field, to advance your agenda down the field.
So it is important.
It does matter.
I know it's obviously a difficult thing to juggle.
It's coalition building.
It's tough.
But at the end of the day, these voters are going to want to feel heard.
And I've never seen, I don't think we have, any of us have, a president basically pull a trigger on a military action that was so unpopular without making a case first.
And we're in uncharted waters.
And I think people should be very conscious of that.
So what kind of a timeframe is he on then, Rich?
Because I said from the beginning it's going to have to be quick, but it's not quick like Venezuela was quick.
It's much more, it's much more complex than that.
And we're seeing that now with the choke on the Strait of Hormuz, so many other things geopolitically going on.
I do think that the coalition building of the Gulf states prior to this with Jared Kushner and the Abraham Accords was very important in this.
But at the same time, middle class and lower class Americans are feeling the pain at the pump.
They want to know, well, wait a minute, if we've got all these great natural resources, why are we still paying high gas prices?
So I think you make a very great point about this fracture and what could happen in the midterms.
I know we think of things always politically and what's going to happen, but what kind of a timeframe is President Trump on?
Because the more losses of life that you have, God help us that we have no more, but war is war.
He said casualties may be a part of this.
What kind of a timeframe and what kind of foreign policy do you have to put forth so that your people understand the overall mission in addition to the losses that you're going to have temporarily?
Yeah, you know, not to sound negative, but I do think we're in a situation right now where we should be thinking about this, that we're already on borrowed time as far as taking risks, like how much time do we have in order to course correct and go in a different direction.
I think we're getting very close.
Some of these questions are actually better for an economist.
How many days do we have with the straight close still before it really impacts the price of gas?
I'm sure we all have seen it at the pump already.
It has.
But Rich, just in the sake of brevity, because we only have about 40 seconds left with you, the more the time goes on, the more this drags out.
You're saying the poll numbers are going to reflect negatively for the president with each OPA.
Absolutely.
It'll get worse as this time goes on.
Wow.
All right.
Well, Rich, thank you so much for your expert insight on polling and all things data.
You're great at that.
And we got into some other subjects, too, that we really appreciate that, especially California.
That race is very, very intriguing.
Rich, thank you so much for your time today.
And we'll be right back with more Human Events Daily.
Call this the Jack Posobiec Appreciation Hour.
I can say confidently, I believe, I think Josh Shapiro would be the vice presidential nominee if it wasn't for Jack Pesobic.
And that is, I'll be honest.
Welcome back to Human Events Daily.
I am Benny Harmony alongside Bo Davidson.
And we actually just got word, Benjamin Netya, who is discussing this Iran conflict right now.
So we're going to go over there and take a look at this.
And there is no possibility to build ballistic missiles.
We continue with their capabilities.
We will be able to do them for a long time, for a long time.
Together with the big deal of our United States, we have achieved huge achievements for today.
We have taken the Khamenei Khamenei, we have taken the military and military crew, and the military crew, and the military crew.
Just in the last days, we have taken the military crew, Ali Lharidzhani, the military crew, and the military crew.
For example, these are the people who have taken the military crew.
So of course, that was the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, who was speaking on the conflict in Iran.
We don't know how to do this.
We don't have translation for that, which is why we're coming out of it.
Otherwise, I know a lot of our American viewers will not understand what he's saying.
So we want to make sure that we're giving credence to that, but also we want to discuss some other topics.
And we have from the post-millennial Libby Emmons.
Libby, good to have you with us today.
Thanks so much.
I really appreciate it.
Absolutely.
Well, Libby, let's talk about, let's dive in more of this Antifa and the report that came out about this.
I want to get your take on it because I know you know a lot about it.
And I kind of just want to give you the floor to talk about these investigations, where you think they will go, if a George Soros group could be finally held accountable.
Where do you see this?
I think this is absolutely great.
I'm really excited that the FBI and the IRS are teaming up to get to the bottom of this.
A lot of Antifa groups and leftist groups that engage in violence, you know, they undertake these charity organization statuses that they can get from the IRS.
And you apply and then you're a designated charity and you can go through and get donations from everybody.
And so it'll be really interesting to see what the IRS and the FBI can uncover because of this, excuse me, what they can team up and find.
But they're not going to find everything because a lot of Antifa groups operate on a mutual aid kind of principle instead, where people give them money, but it's not tax deductible, or people give them donations of things that are not tax deductible.
So it's sort of a combo.
And, you know, but I do think that something will come of it.
And I'm looking forward to that.
And so, Libby, you've been writing and doing stories about Antifa in these cells and groups for years now, leading up to this bombshell report that we're seeing.
Talk to us a little bit about some of those things that you have seen, some of the stories that you can share with us to really give our viewers and just the American people an understanding of how deep these Antifa organizations go.
Yeah, and the people that I work with at the post-millennial really have a deep expertise in this.
And I've been very blessed and grateful to get to work with them and hear what they've been working on and then edit their work and talk to them about it.
That's Andy No, Katie Davis Court, Jack Pisovic at Human Events, and also Ari Hoffman have really dug into this.
And it's been fascinating to see their work continue to grow.
Three of them were at the President's Antifa roundtable in the fall.
But what we see is a changing apparatus of Antifa.
They are able to grow and adjust based on how they're being targeted.
We saw just recently with the anti-ICE stuff, Antifa members started donning these like, you know, buoyant balloon-looking frog costumes, right?
And then that became this whole thing.
And actually, you had Senator Ron Wyden and others hosting the frog costume, Antifa people, when they had their backlash against the State of the Union address.
So it's really permeated, and Antifa will make those adjustments so that they become more palatable to Americans.
And they're always sort of putting someone between themselves and accountability.
So we saw in 2020 they had this wall of moms in Portland where all the moms wore these yellow shirts and linked arms.
And they were standing between Antifa and the federal government, essentially, the federal law enforcement, while Antifa would then go try and set fire to the courthouse building in Antifa in Portland, which they did for 100 straight nights that summer in 2020.
So it's been really interesting to see.
There's so much that happens there.
We recently saw in France, and this is something that both Jack and Andy were talking about, there was a young man, Quentin, who was killed by Antifa.
He was beaten to death in the streets because he was working with women who were nationalist and speaking out for women's rights and nationalism.
So Antifa is this global thing.
It's sort of like a hydra where if you cut one head off, there's another one that just jumps into place.
It's a leaderless kind of organization by design so that anyone can take up the helm and do that.
People self-identify into this group.
It's easy to find information online about how you can be part of what they're doing or just accelerate the kinds of actions that they are undertaking.
And they also, this is a key thing too, is it's never just one issue, right?
The issue is always overthrowing the American government, taking down imperialism, blah, blah, blah.
It could be anything.
It was BLM, trans, climate justice, as they call it.
There was COVID.
These anti-fascists were the same ones who were advocating for COVID lockdowns.
And now you have the anti-ICE stuff.
And whatever the new, oh, and of course, you know, the Gaza stuff.
So whatever the new cause du jour is, Antifa will be on the left side of it.
Libby, I'm curious, something you said earlier that was intriguing is you said it's going to be tough to track down some of these people's funds because the way that they're given.
How do you do that?
How do they track those types of funds?
We know with terrorist cells, obviously linking back to Iran, proxy wars, maybe those are easier to track.
Why is it so difficult to nail down where the money's coming from?
And I guess my second question to that would be, is this going to build up to be a big nothing burger again?
Will we actually see any perp walks?
Will we see arrests?
Will we see crimes being prosecuted?
Or have we been led down a path that may produce very little?
Well, I do think it's important to dig into the charity organizations that are designated by the IRS that are actually political groups that are funding Antifa and are perhaps just Antifa covers themselves or just covers for far-left violent groups.
I mean, there's that as well, right?
So that's something to look at in addition to the Antifa militant organizations.
So I do think that we will uncover things.
I think we will uncover sources of funding that have been charitably given.
And I think perhaps charitable designation statuses will be removed as they should be.
Not everyone who's out there with a charitable designation should be classified as a charity.
That's a big problem.
So there will be some of that, but I think some funding will still remain.
And so Libby, I want to ask you too, you know, just do you think that anyone on the FBI or DOJ or IRS would ever come to someone like yourself who is an authority on this to help them with these investigations?
People like Jack Pesovic, people like Andy Know, who understand these organizations really, really well because nobody knows it probably better than you guys.
Do you think there'll be a situation where they might reach out to you to find out more information?
Yeah, I think for sure.
I mean, President Trump went directly to the source, to the journalists who have been covering this, who have been risking their lives to cover this over the years.
And I think the FBI and the IRS would do well to reach out to Andy and Jack, Katie, Savannah Hernandez, and the rest of the people who are at that roundtable, and they should.
Absolutely.
Well, Libby, I want to ask you too, just your final thoughts just on this particular issue, because now that we've seen this investigation, we know that it's happening now.
It was reported to CBS News.
What's the likely outcome and how quickly do you think we could actually see some actionable items on this?
I mean, this is kind of new, but it's been developing for a while.
We saw there was a memo that came out from Pam Bonnie.
I believe it was in December.
So how soon do you think that, or how long of a project is this going to take?
Maybe is a better question.
I think it's going to take a while because you really have to identify the charitable organizations that could be far-left violent groups instead of charities.
You have to identify that, figure out who they are, and then you have to track the funding.
So these kinds of sort of forensic accounting activities can certainly take a long time, but I think it'll be worth it in the long run to go through those numbers, to go through those records and accounts and tax returns and 990 forms and all the rest of it and really see what's going on there.
And if you have accountants who are into that kind of thing, they're going to have a lot of fun.
All right, Libby, well, thank you so much for your time today.
We really appreciate you.
Thanks, Libby.
Thank you so much.
Well, Benny, we've only got about a minute left.
I think we do want to mention that there is going to be a state dinner tonight with the Japanese prime minister and President Trump.
Can you tell us anything about that?
There is.
Yeah, so 7.15, there will be a state dinner at the White House with the Prime Minister of Japan.
Now, this doesn't really happen too often, so I do believe this will be pretty big and hopefully press will be inside there.
So definitely be on the lookout for some questions and stuff happening.
But lots more coming on Capitol Hill these next couple weeks.
So we will be here on the ground reporting right here for you guys.
Bo, it's fun to host with you today, filling in for Jack.
It was a lot of fun.
It was, Jack.
Thank you for your hospitality.
Letting us.
We miss you, Jack.
And we've had a great time.
Make sure you are paying attention to CPAC next week.
All roads lead to CPAC.
All roads lead to PAC.
Immense press coverage there, as well as Real America's music.
Some performers are going to be there.
Comedian Rob Schneider.
It's a big buildup, the biggest CPAC we've ever had.