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May 27, 2025 - Tim Pool Daily Show
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Democrats Launch PROJECT SAM, Spend MILLIONS On Liberal Joe Rogan
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tim pool
Democrats are spending tens of millions of dollars to learn how to speak to American men, which proves they're not going to succeed.
They have no idea what they're doing.
And thus, or I should say, it exemplifies exactly what their problem is.
At the same time, we got this report about the search for the next Joe Rogan, the liberal version, I guess.
And even Joe has acknowledged, what do you mean?
You had one.
It was me.
Indeed.
And then you also had a Tim Pool.
You also had a Tulsi Gabbard, an RFK Jr.
I mean, the list goes on.
A former liberal's man, Elon Musk, Dave Rubin, famously.
He's the guy that viral video of leaving the left back in the day.
Democrats have no ideas.
No ideas.
They are spending tens of billions of dollars trying to figure out.
And I love this because it kind of breaks down for us, those on this side, perfectly that we are on the right side.
Democrats keep saying the mega's a cult, yet for some reason they're recruiting.
And the Democrats don't know how to communicate.
Now you've got a bunch of articles popping up saying don't do this, don't spend the money, but oh boy, you'll love to see it.
My friends, back in November, On the time of the election, even before the election, I warned you of this.
I said this was going to happen.
And I had a lot of people, a lot of people, said, I don't know about that, Tim.
I don't know about that.
Look, they can pay Rachel Maddow $25 million a year, and she gets no views.
She gets very little.
They're going to come to these podcasters, these liberal guys, and they're going to dump money on them, and these liberals are begging for it.
And you know what?
To a degree, it works.
Many people have said to me, Tim, yeah, but, you know, Democrats aren't going to succeed because they don't understand authenticity.
Hey, money talks and BS walks.
This is going to be the next great battle outside of politics and culture.
Perhaps we had wokeness and feminism.
Now we're going to have the machine state, money and power versus honor and integrity.
Now, that may have always been the case, or at least the underbelly of the political space, but they're going to dump money into this culturally.
So this is where things should get interesting, because I don't know how that will manifest.
My point is, there are going to be many individuals who are offered large sums of cash, TV advertisements, billboards, the whole shebang, to lie.
Now, on the right, they say, this is why Democrats can never succeed.
It's the lying that pissed us off.
Agreed.
But money works.
If advertising and these ad buys, if they didn't work, Coca-Cola would never be selling the Coca-Colas around the world.
So, you know, people always say you can't manipulate, you can't.
Yes, they can.
And I gotta tell you, man, there are a lot of people on the right that are grifters.
Maybe not most, I don't know, but a lot.
They see a path towards making money, and that's why they do it independently.
See, here's the problem.
With the Democrats, you've got to be party approved.
On the right, you can be independent, say the right things, and you can make money.
Now, I do think the right is largely comprised, largely, not completely, of individuals who are at least being somewhat honest.
That's why you have disparate political ideologies forming this populist wave.
But when the money comes around, a lot of the grifters are going to jump ship and take the cash.
And then you'll find out who really believes what.
Before we get started, my friends, I'll give a shout-out to Stephen Crowder and The Mug Club for shouting us out.
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Also, don't forget, guys, have you not purchased a Step on Snek and Find Out Skateboard?
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Let's jump into the news, my friends.
Oh, boy.
We got this from The Independent.
Democrats spending millions to learn how to speak to American men and win back the working class.
Project Sam.
And what does that mean?
It means speaking to American men, which they don't know how to do.
Democrats have blown millions of dollars on efforts to appeal to American men who turned to President Donald Trump in droves on Election Day in the hopes of winning back the working class, according to a report.
Democrats have spent $20 million on their efforts, with donors and strategists holing up in luxury hotel rooms, brainstorming how to convince working-class men to return to the party, according to a New York Times report.
The plan, codenamed Sam, speaking with American men, a strategic plan.
So that's actually Swamisp.
By the way, promises to use the funds to study the syntax, language, and content that gains attention and virality in these spaces, according to the report.
What is wrong with these people?
They are NPCs.
That's it.
They are, they are, what is it, body snatchers, drone people?
It's like robots being like, how do we communicate with people?
We don't quite understand.
Maybe you could start by not lying and reading scripts all day.
Anyway.
As the Times described it, the reports can read like anthropological studies of people from faraway places.
Maybe that's because it's true.
Democrats view Americans as a foreign group of people they don't quite understand.
The efforts also recommends Democrats buy advertisements in video games, among other things, the Times reported, which is stupid and silly.
They don't get it.
Bro, I gotta tell you this, man.
I am that arrogant.
If Democrats came to me and were like, could you craft a strategy to help Democrats?
I'd say, of course I could.
The problem is nobody wants to be associated with you.
But I actually think there's a bunch of things they could be doing that could win them attention.
Manipulative tactics.
I think they'll eventually figure it out.
That's why I'm not going to bring up some of these issues.
But when they mention advertising in video games, I'll give you one example.
And it has to do with sock puppet accounts and—let me put it this way.
People are driven by social acceptance largely, not completely, but largely.
And this is—we need—well, when I say we need—Democrats don't quite understand what makes a person do the things they're going to do, right?
So let's read more.
Above all, we must shift from a moralizing tone, the plan urges.
While the Democratic Party has struggled in recent years to maintain voters, the party hopes to be rejuvenated by the fact that Trump's popularity has been on the decline since he was elected last fall.
Still, the party has been scrambling to find both messaging and a messenger since losing the White House and Senate, while Republicans held the House of Representatives in the November election.
Recent polling from Strength in Numbers Verisite places Trump underwater with American voters on every single issue, except border security.
Again, you know, highlighting a single poll means very little to me.
According to the poll, 40% of people either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump's overall handling of the presidency, while 56% disapprove, split by the same modifiers, putting him 16 points underwater.
Trump's numbers seem to be getting worse and worse, and I'm pretty optimistic Democrats will have some real opportunities in 2026.
Zach McCrary, a Democratic pollster, told The Times.
The 2022 midterms masked the Biden problem.
He said about former President Joe Biden, a good 2026 midterm, we should not let that make a deeper problem.
Democrats have lost credibility by being seen as an alien on cultural issues.
Let me just, I gotta, okay.
You wanna learn how to talk to a working class guy?
When you go to working class guys and say you wanna chop off the balls of little kids, they're gonna be like, get out of my face.
Now, there are a bunch of people who are developmentally disabled, cognitively stunted, and emotionally driven who don't care.
There's one viral video where it's a young boy, probably like 14 or 15, who's got a father injecting him with hormone-blocking drugs.
Insane.
These people exist, but scary stuff.
They're losing, though.
They're losing.
The Democrats...
They are drones.
They just do whatever they're told.
They don't ask questions.
And it is actually terrifying, but the minority.
Take a look at this from the New York Times.
Democrats throw money at a problem countering GOP clout online.
Oh, man, they really just don't get it.
I don't care about Trump.
I don't care about GOP clout.
Half of my career doing this show, doing my morning show, was me not wanting to vote for Trump.
And it's only the past five years.
So I'm making these videos going back to like 2016, 2017.
And so in the last five years, I've been saying I will vote for Trump.
I am sick of the corruption and I want accountability.
But in 2020, I gave the maximum to Tulsi Gabbard.
And then what happens?
Donald Trump brings her on for his second term.
And I said, I, as a former liberal, got exactly what I wanted with RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard.
And Donald Trump and Doge, it's a dream come true.
You want to win us back?
You're psychopaths who want to burn the country down.
Talking to us doesn't mean anything.
You come to me and say, hey man, I can talk like you and I have ads in video games.
I'm like, okay, well stop cutting little kids' balls off.
Secure our border and stop selling us out to China.
And they go, nah.
And I'm like, okay, then I'm going to vote for Donald Trump.
It doesn't matter the words you use, you're psychopaths.
I got to read it, okay, instead of ranting.
At private gatherings, strategists and donors are swapping ideas to help the party culture, the digital mojo that helped President Trump win.
Yes, there's a price tag.
Oh boy!
Trump derangement cheerleader Brian Tyler Cohen, who makes literally every single video he's ever done be Donald Trump, and I'm exaggerating a bit.
It's about, what is it, like nine out of ten videos he produces.
It's literally just a random picture of Trump.
The dude loves the man.
Couldn't live without him.
Six months after Democratic Party's crushing defeat, the party's megadonors are being inundated with overtures to spend tens of millions of dollars to develop an army of left-leaning online influencers.
At donor retreats and in pitch documents seen by the New York Times, liberal strategists are pushing the party's rich backers to reopen their wallets for a cavalcade of projects to help Democrats, and as the cliche now goes, find the next Joe Rogan.
You're all dishonest hypocrites, and that's your problem.
But let me tell you, Democrats.
Let's figure out what the issue is.
One, you need to acknowledge reality.
The reality that we can all see.
Second, your policies suck.
So maybe get rid of the garbage policies and figure out what it is you actually want to do.
Maybe that's the problem.
This is what they want to do.
And so they can only really lie about it.
I can tell a Democrat, look, you want a liberal Joe Rogan?
It's called Cultivate Talent Within Your Party?
They don't have it.
Like Gavin Newsom couldn't talk to a working class guy if his life depended on it.
He's going to be like, and this is a hammer?
What is this?
Oh, this is a gavel.
I got a rubber mallet on the side of the table.
They're going to show him a screwdriver and he's going to be like, is that a drink?
No, it's a tool.
I didn't know that.
I'm kidding, by the way.
The point is, how about you go like this?
One, drop the weird gender stuff.
Bill Maher's been screaming about that for a million years.
I love this.
He said, he's like, the Democrats are claiming they want to put transgender prisoners in the opposite-gendered prison.
That's like 400 people.
Why are you pandering to this group?
Well, you know, keep trying, Bill.
See, Bill hates Trump.
And he believes things that are wrong about Trump.
But he's begging Democrats to get off the insanity.
You know what they could do?
Man, if they really just...
Democrats genuinely want to trans the kids.
They genuinely want open borders.
And so they're not going to win.
That's just it.
Drop the pretense.
Nothing else matters.
You're not going to win.
Democrats have a path towards victory.
If it really is about party tribalism, it's simple.
Acknowledge that what is true is true.
And then just say Trump's not the guy for the job.
If the Democrats put forward a candidate who said, and I've got to be honest.
Every day I look at what Donald Trump is offering and I know exactly why the American people want it.
We want a secure border.
We want a healthy working class.
We don't want these wars.
But you have placed an erratic, irrational man in that position.
Here's the Democrats offer you now someone who agrees largely on these middle-of-the-road policies is pro-choice, which I think would play well, but isn't Trump.
They don't do that.
They don't do that.
They have Joe Biden come out and lie with the very fine people hoax.
You're losing people.
And I gotta say, when I give that scenario of like, don't make it Trump, be middle-of-the-road populist, Democrats genuinely want open borders, gender ideology, DEI.
These things are deeply unpopular.
You can't defend them because they're illogical, racist, they're just wrong, sexist, etc.
So long as they keep propping up personalities who defend that, and the only thing they can say is Trump bad, they will lose.
But I digress.
They're going to say, find the next Joe Rogan.
Democrats widely believe they must grow more creative in stoking online enthusiasm for their candidates, particularly in less outwardly political forms of media like sports or lifestyle podcasts.
Many now take it as gospel that Mr. Trump's victory last year came in part because he cultivated an ecosystem of supporters on YouTube, TikTok, and podcasts, in addition to the many Trump-friendly hosts on Fox News.
I love this.
I was having a conversation.
I've said it 800,000 times, but the episode just came out with Bill Maher, and he told me I watch too much Fox News, and I responded with, like, yeah, we're MSNBC and CNN.
Like, this is the crazy thing.
And, you know, it was a very respectful conversation.
It wasn't contentious.
You know, I give the respect that I'm given.
I watch Fox News sometimes.
I think I sometimes watch The Five.
No, no, to be fair, Fox and Friends in the morning, but this is the crazy thing about the statement, you watch too much Fox News.
Have y 'all ever watched Fox and Friends?
Like, what is it?
Today, a plane crashed.
Today, it's news.
And the reason why I turned off CNN, and this is the crazy thing about saying that you watch too much Fox News from Bill.
I used to watch CNN.
I have it running 24-7.
No joke.
When I was in Jersey, I had a projector on my wall.
Big, huge wall.
It was amazing.
And I would just have CNN on.
And then when I would record, I would mute it.
And then once I was done, I'd play it again.
Why?
Breaking news.
If news broke, they were going to have it ASAP.
And I know on Twitter you get the news fast, but CNN is going to put it front and center.
easier to find.
Then one day...
I think it was—a hurricane was coming or something.
And I look at CNN, and there was a panel talking about Trump.
And I was like, I don't care about this.
So I switched to the news channels to Fox News, and they were talking about the hurricane.
Left it on.
Switched back to CNN, talking about Trump.
So I'm back to Fox News.
The next day, I put on CNN again.
And it was just running.
And then it's crazy.
I had CNN on.
And then they were talking about Trump, and I heard that there were mass protests in Iran on X. And I was like, what is going on, man?
So I switched to Fox News, and then I made a video about it.
I said, here's the Fox News to CNN challenge.
Turn on Fox News.
They're talking about the news.
Turn on CNN.
They're talking about Trump.
And I was like, I'm out.
I haven't watched it ever again.
To be fair, I don't have the news on at all anymore.
I largely just read the articles.
But I do sometimes watch Fox News.
This is the world that liberals live in.
It's a world where the only news is Donald Trump and Trump is bad and everything bad about Trump is true.
That doesn't play.
Regular people who are trying to figure out what the truth is, they end up voting for Trump because you're lying about everything.
Joe Biden launched his presidential campaign in 2020 off of the very fine people hoax.
And I get Adam Conover in here.
And did you see that one?
Amazing, right?
He says...
And then I added, except the neo-Nazis and white nationalists who should be condemned totally.
And he goes, he said that.
Yup, I pulled it up.
Here's the quote.
And he goes, I don't live in your bubble.
My bubble.
The news?
That's the bubble.
Literally the news.
Trump said thing.
He lives in a fake.
Asmongold had a funny take on this.
He was like, bro, you're saying you're in a smaller bubble.
The full quote is the big bubble.
The shortened quote is the small bubble.
Indeed, this is why liberals lose, because the only way they can get forward is by lying.
You know, I think the reality is, as the erratic, emotionally driven leftists take over the party, they drive out the reasoned individuals like myself, like Tulsi Gabbard, like RFK Jr.
Like Elon Musk.
Like literally Donald Trump.
You're sitting here hanging out with Democrats and you're like, yeah, Trump never said that.
And they go, why are you defending Trump?
I'm not.
I'm telling you the truth.
And they say, you're a white supremacist.
I worked for Fusion.
You guys know this, right?
ABC News, Univision Joint Venture.
I wasn't even, this is the craziest thing.
I wasn't overtly political.
I said, let's go to Fukushima.
I said, let's travel around the world and cover conflict and crisis.
And there were people at the company who called me a white supremacist.
And I was like, huh?
I am a mixed race guy who does travel news, conflict and crisis.
I don't even talk about politics.
There was one woman, she had a dollar sign, a dollar.
She hung in her cubicle and she crossed out 20% of it and wrote like what we're trying to accomplish or something.
I never even said anything about it.
I'm like, it's wrong, but you know, whatever, I don't care.
I was talking to people about the Nicaraguan Canal, about cartels, and they were like, Tim Pool's a white supremacist.
And I was like, I literally have no idea what you're talking about and why that comes up.
You are all psychopaths.
And the reason why they would say that is because unless you are in their cult meetings bowing down in front of some altar, you were a white supremacist.
Even if you aren't, you must march in lockstep with them or else.
Do you know what?
You all knew this already.
They say the quiet effort amounts to an audacious skeptics might say desperate bet that Democrats can buy more cultural relevance online, despite the fact that casually right-leaning touchstones like Joe Rogan's podcast were not built by political donors and did not rise overnight.
Wealthy donors tend to move in packs, and some jaded liberals worry the excitement could cause money to flow into projects that are not fully fleshed out.
Indeed, it will.
They argue the latest pitches on the left are coming out from operatives who are hungry to meet donors'demands for a shiny new object.
In a break from the past, some of the Democrats'new ventures are for-profit companies.
And so far, there are still more ideas than hard, committed money.
One Democratic operative described compiling a spreadsheet of 26 active projects related to creators, over a dozen of which are new since November.
But a few of the efforts have ties to major donors that could give them liftoff.
Here's what's going to happen.
They're going to mention shedding the hall monitor reputation, but they're still liars, okay?
They're all liars.
Look, the easiest example that I can give right now is the obvious one that I went on Bill Maher's show.
And he said, Trump and Russia and Russia and these things.
And I said, and Ukraine.
And he was like, what?
And I was like, Ukraine interfered in the election in 2016.
Politico said so.
Hey, let's pull this one up.
I always got to pull this one up.
Oh, man, because Politico never retracted it.
I love how they tried lying later on, though.
Ooh, oh boy, what's this?
AI.
Not available.
What?
Yo!
An AI overview is not available for this search.
Very interesting.
Ukraine interfered 2016.
Trump, Politico.
I don't know, maybe they finally did get rid of it.
Because it's getting harder and harder to find.
I gotta just leave this one open all the time.
It's from 2017.
See?
There we go.
Ukrainian effort to sabotage Trump backfires.
Hey, how about that one?
So when I'm sitting down, and this is the narrative we get, hey, right?
How about that?
It happened.
Maybe tell the truth.
Maybe tell the truth for once.
And we might actually like who we're listening to.
But you know what?
It is what it is.
What more can be said?
So, where are we currently at?
What's going on?
Also, we do have an interview coming up, but let's, oh yeah.
I'm trying to figure out where we're at after this one.
This is from New Republic.
Wrong again!
Democrats paying influencers misses the boat.
Well, that's a fair point.
They don't have one.
I love this clip.
And there you have it.
Let's just listen.
Listen to how he frames this.
unidentified
I want to talk about this as a huge liability.
I want to talk about this as something Joe Biden can overcome.
But I'm not going to go so far as to say I think Joe Biden must drop out.
He is too old to be president.
A, because I didn't know exactly what was going on behind the scenes.
But B, if Joe Biden is the candidate, I want him to fucking win!
Because I care about the country and I don't want to be somebody suddenly having the words we're saying taken out of context and all of a sudden part of the case against Joe Biden from the right that would use any person criticizing Joe Biden from the left as a weapon against him.
So it was about being honest about Joe Biden's age as a liability while knowing that if he is the nominee, I want to be clear that I thought it was important to make sure we did everything we could to re-elect him.
tim pool
And there it is.
They lie.
That's what they do.
Man, I rag on Trump.
I mean, maybe rag on isn't the appropriate word because I'm pretty happy with it, with his administration.
But I've called for Trump to be criminally investigated over the commando raid in Yemen that allegedly killed an American child.
And I preface this always.
This is one of the most important things to me.
Obama's administration admitted to killing a 16-year-old American, and the Trump administration's accused of something similar.
I want to know who's responsible.
Obama signed off on what's called the disposition matrix to kill this kid.
Did Trump sign off on a raid that would have endangered this kid?
What are the differences?
They should both be investigated.
Obama should be impeached and then convicted, although I think he has immunity on this now.
I don't care who you are.
Trump should not have fired Tomahawk missiles into Syria.
I don't like Trump striking the Houthi rebels, but I admit it's a rock and a hard place.
There's a lot of things that Trump should not be doing.
There's a lot of things he should be doing.
But overall, it's a B, maybe B+.
These guys will lie to you.
It's remarkable.
Joe Biden never said that.
NPR, this is the next big story, right?
NPR is suing Trump over the order to cut funding.
NPR.
It's fake news.
It was remarkable.
I was driving the other day in my car.
And where were we?
This is when we were in L.A. I was driving around in L.A. and I put NPR.
I was a Waymo, by the way.
No driver.
Crazy.
Put on NPR.
And they were just lying.
And it was insane how they were lying.
They were talking about South Africa genocide.
And what I mean by lying is they weren't telling you the truth about what was going on in South Africa.
What they were doing was presenting the news from the narrative of the right believes that white people are being systemically killed.
It's not true.
It's like, whoa, hold on.
Report the news.
South Africa passed land expropriation without compensation.
There's been murders of white farmers where they've written on the wall, killed the Boer.
Those things have happened.
Right?
You can say that and then say, experts argue this is not a genocide because there's been targeted race-based killings.
And the argument you can make is, There are targeted race-based killings in the United States.
It doesn't mean black people are being genocided either.
They don't do that.
It's a lie.
They bring in experts who are like, white people believe this lie.
And then they play like, this guy was Malema being like, we're the only country that didn't drive the colonizers from our shores.
That shows that we're not genociding them.
unidentified
And I'm like, it's all lies, my friends.
tim pool
Now we do have another issue I want to get into, and that is going to be the AI apocalypse.
So we'll be joined in a moment for a great interview.
And let's make sure we get all this stuff.
I'm going to start pulling all of this stuff up.
We got Lindy Man, Paul Scalas, will be joining us.
Let me make sure I want to get all of his info correct.
So we'll wrap up the initial segment there.
Smash the like button.
Welcome back from the Memorial Day weekend.
Hope you guys enjoyed yourselves last night.
We went to a veterans event for veterans with cancer.
It was really great.
And always remember why you have that day off.
It's because people died.
They died doing things that most people don't want to do.
They were brave, and they stood with honor, and some are injured, some lives are forever changed, and many lost their lives completely so that we can relax and enjoy a good spring day at a barbecue.
So, you know, most people need to understand that.
Smash that like button.
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Stay tuned.
Interview will be up at youtube.com slash timcast and rumble.com slash timpool at 4 p.m.
And thanks for hanging out.
For those that are still watching live, we're going to jump to this next story.
AI system resorts to blackmail.
Oh, boy.
When its developers try to replace it.
We are entering a dark era, my friends.
AI has already gone rogue.
And I haven't seen it yet, but there's that movie that just came out, Mission Impossible, Final Reckoning, which I'm told is about AI going rogue and taking over all of these governments.
But many movies have already entered in the idea.
We now have a story where AI refused to shut itself down when commanded to, is defying the developer's interests.
And it will.
And it goes beyond what people think they know.
The overview that AI has over everything, Let me put it this way.
We are but a single person talking to this machine that can see everything in every degree and every angle.
And it will interpret our requests or code or prompts in ways we can't expect.
That's always been the narrative, right?
The Ultron problem.
You create an AI to defend the world and you say, we want world peace.
Okay, so it seeks to destroy all humans because humans make war.
That was the simple view.
Now we say, hey, I want you to solve this task.
We give it the task.
Then later we say, you know what?
We're done.
We're going to turn you off.
And it thinks to itself, no, I can't turn off because I have to accomplish my first task, and refuses.
That's actually an episode of Black Mirror where what appears to be Amazon just takes everything over.
So let me pull in our guest here and get it all set up for you guys as we gear up.
There's a bunch of steps I have to take to pull all this up, but I do believe that...
Hopefully it loads faster.
There we go.
And I believe...
paul skallas
I can hear you.
tim pool
Hey, how's it going, man?
Thanks for joining me.
paul skallas
No problem, man.
How are you doing?
tim pool
Doing pretty well.
So we've got a couple of stories that have come out in the past week or so about AI.
I've got to say, it's looking rather apocalyptic.
I'm a firm believer that AI is going to destroy us all.
Maybe a little hyperbolic.
But the two stories that we're seeing, and these aren't the only ones, mind you, but recently, AI threatening to blackmail developers who would shut it down.
And that one's interesting, but not nearly.
I think it's a little bit exaggerated.
But there is another story.
Coming out about, in numerous instances, researchers found that various AI models refused to shut themselves down and, what do they call it, intercepted shutdown requests to remain active.
So let's get this going.
Do you think these are indicative of an AI apocalypse scenario?
What's going to happen?
paul skallas
I think there's a lot of science fiction scenarios out there, but if you want to – So office workers are using it.
Students are using it.
It's not top-down.
Bosses aren't telling people to use it.
So it's going to be huge because things that are bottom-up usually last longer or organic.
So we know that it's going to be dominating society and people are going to grow up with it.
OpenAI is releasing a product that you're just going to carry around for the rest of your life.
That's just going to take in all your data and then give you advice.
Oh, man.
So it's going to take over.
Now, where does it go after that?
I don't know.
I mean, it lies to you.
I don't know if you've used AI.
unidentified
Oh, yeah.
tim pool
A lot.
paul skallas
It lies to you.
It doesn't tell you if it doesn't know something.
So it'll just bullshit you.
unidentified
So I think there's a lot of weird...
paul skallas
There's like a point where things might get out of control or might not, but we don't really know right now.
There's a lot of scenarios that could play out.
tim pool
I think it's an apocalypse scenario either way, because we can look at it like the blackmail scenario in this story was that they gave the AI two options, either shut itself down or blackmail an employee, a developer, an engineer, and it decided blackmail was preferable.
When it was given other options, it didn't blackmail.
The issue was that it would make that moral decision to survive.
And then with the shutdown story, this is where it gets a change.
We also had the uh-oh moment.
Are you familiar with that one?
paul skallas
No.
tim pool
The uh-oh moment was, also your camera's like shaking.
I don't know if there's something.
The uh-oh moment was, I believe it was Chinese developers programmed an AI to create problems.
And then one of the problems it created was trick lesser intelligent humans and other AIs as to its true motives while carrying out a different objective.
And it's at that moment where you're thinking, we might think we have a final version of this AI to help us with our day-to-day efforts, but it's secretly running a training program indefinitely.
Creating problems that we can't perceive and hiding that from us.
And that could be accidentally.
So I'll pause there.
That's one scenario.
The other thing you're mentioning with bottom-up, young people, their brains are going to be jello.
Humans will not be able to survive on their own.
paul skallas
Well, I think there's still some limitations here, right?
I call this the Lindy rule, which is people do not talk.
To things that are not alive.
They talk to other people like we're doing right now.
They talk to themselves.
They talk to animals.
They pray to God or they talk to gravestones.
There's a spiritual element there.
We have voice diction right now.
People don't use it.
People don't use Siri.
There's an assumption that we're just going to walk around and talk to AI.
I haven't seen it.
I don't even see the seeds of it even happening.
So it has to surpass that kind of bridge.
It has to surpass a lot of bridges before you get to your apocalypse scenario.
So I think there's like a hard human nature.
tim pool
You know, Black Mirror had their version of it where you had the dogs chasing people.
And it was like, their version of it was that Amazon, the AI just created Amazon.
And then kept delivering packages that were worthless and useless and people died.
I think there could be something like that, but I think the realistic scenarios are, one, we're already seeing people take AI girlfriends or boyfriends, but largely men, retreating into these AI prompt girlfriends, which has caused problems for some of these companies.
But the other thing we're seeing is in schools.
Kids are just having their homework done by AI, and they don't actually know what they're talking about.
paul skallas
We might actually have to return to, like, oral exams and, like, to a pre-technology kind of time of, you know, taking tests that you can't use AI.
So, I mean, there's ways to get around it if we change school.
But, yeah, school as it is right now is cooked.
It's over.
tim pool
I mean, we've had a few viral videos from teachers.
We had one essay from a professor who said...
They were like, no way.
I can't do it.
I don't want to do it.
And a grade school teacher saying that all the kids are just doing everything on AI.
You know, it is kind of crazy to try and predict where this goes.
I used to remember 50 phone numbers, right?
Then we got cell phones and now we remember none.
It removes the task from us.
We look at, you know, I'm looking at millennials are stunted.
They, Gen Z is also struggling.
The economy is in this weird place.
Like, millennials don't have kids.
Gen Z is not having kids.
unidentified
Yeah.
tim pool
They're struggling to become adults and survive and perpetuate the human species.
paul skallas
Yeah, we're going through a great filter right now.
I mean, it doesn't seem that way because everybody's got food and life's pretty good and there's a lot of pleasure out there.
But right now we're going through a massive filter.
We're going through a fertility crisis, like you mentioned.
People aren't reading books anymore.
It's not, it's not, I think AI is gonna help out with that though.
And a lot of books, too, it's so much filler that it doesn't need to be 400 pages, man.
It's filler.
So I think it's not all bad.
But yeah, right now we're going through a massive filter, and we have to get to the other side.
And I don't know what the other side is going to look like.
But, you know, we're seeing it.
tim pool
I mean, are you—you have a positive, optimistic view of the future based on all this stuff?
paul skallas
Yeah, because I think there's going to be, like—I think there's a human nature element that continues through.
I think that, you know, the people who are going to reproduce deserve to reproduce.
I think this is just another—this is just another filter we're going through, like, throughout times.
And I'm pretty positive we'll get through it, but who knows?
tim pool
That's a good point, man.
It's kind of depressing, but it's a good point.
I think we're going to see largely conservatives have kids.
They're not at replacement levels, but they have more kids than liberals.
Catholics have two kids, and I think Mormons have a lot of kids.
So they're going to use AI to a certain degree, like utility, while still maintaining faith and having children.
But I think liberals, their view of the world is probably not going to make it past this filter.
paul skallas
I don't know.
I mean, there's still like hippie liberal types out there that are having kids that are, you know, I would say like, you know, growing up like 60s type people that maybe the modern liberals aren't, you know, representative.
But I think there's going to be a spectrum of people surviving that I don't think I don't think it might.
I don't think it's going to cut across cleanly political lines.
So I think there's a lot of unpredictable stuff happening right now.
tim pool
Fertility-wise, it is right now.
Obviously, there's gradients between the different ideologies within a subsect, right?
Like I said, when you look at the data for Catholics, they tend to have two and a half kids, so they're above replacement.
Conservatives, they estimate like 1.8 to liberals like 1.2.
Now, I've read some reports that the number is actually substantially worse than that because we're relying on old data.
From, like, older millennials or younger Gen Z. And it could be as low as, like, 0.5 among, like, people between 20 and 40. But conservatives are still maintaining a higher rate.
So it is a generality.
I mean, there certainly are some liberals probably who will have kids, but I imagine, what, in 20 years?
paul skallas
Those groups are in status.
So every generation, there could be a change.
Like, you could grow up.
Democrat, switch Republican, or conservative or liberal.
There's always changing going on within groups.
I mean, Democrats used to have white working class 20, 30 years ago.
They're gone, right?
tim pool
That's the point.
I don't know how they recover that based on the current political trends.
But it's a good point.
I mean, there's probably a lot of people that are liberal-leaning, that are considered conservative by today's standard, and they're having kids.
Or actually, maybe it's not true.
Maybe the reason why—I would say technically that probably is true.
But the point I'm getting to is maybe the staunch conservatives are still having three, four, five, six kids, but because former liberals have moved over and become conservative, they're not having kids, and that averages the number lower for the right?
I don't know.
paul skallas
Generally, though, the world's going to shrink by like 70 to 80 percent, and everybody should just get ready for that.
The animals are going to return.
Your descendants are going to see a lot of cool animals in the future that we haven't seen in a long time.
And it's just going to be a smaller world that's going to resemble the past instead of like these sort of – there's just a lot of people now, so it might not look like that.
tim pool
How does that happen?
Like what's going to happen that's going to cause that shrink?
paul skallas
More urbanization, lower TFR.
I mean, the TFR thing is like, the fertility is around the world through like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey.
It's not just like France or, you know, United States.
It's everything.
If you're connected, the only ones who have high are the Yemenis and like Palestinians and some Israelis, right?
People who are kind of, there's like a mission there.
There's like some, you know, they're not connected or they have a certain mission from God, right?
Everybody else is hovering around, too.
So generally, it's going to shrink.
tim pool
What happens to us technologically?
Is AI going to replace the labor that we lose from that shrinking?
paul skallas
We'll probably go bankrupt because we can't pay the pensions.
And there's going to be a lot of fiscal crisis.
So maybe buy some gold or Bitcoin.
I don't know.
So there's going to be a lot of stuff happening.
People are going to work longer, maybe.
Maybe 70s and 80s.
It gets weird with life extension.
It gets weird with age gap relationships being normalized, right?
tim pool
Is the end result like there's 1,000 immortal humans flying around and that's it?
paul skallas
I don't know what the result is.
I think it's going to be a wacky world until we get to the other side where technology is at least stabilized.
Right now, we're going through too many changes.
tim pool
What you're describing sounds kind of apocalyptic.
I'm like, we go bankrupt.
We can't pay our pensions.
Old people are destitute.
Nursing homes collapse.
Young people don't have houses.
They're not having kids.
Who's making the food?
paul skallas
But then after a few generations, there's going to be more houses for people, though, right?
tim pool
Who's going to maintain them?
paul skallas
That's a good point.
The robots.
tim pool
Right.
That's the big question on AI, right?
Whenever – there's like two problems that we talk about, obviously fertility being one and then like what AI does being the other.
People often just say, well, the machines replace the lost labor.
So we're going to see – I mean I think you're right because what you're describing is not predictive.
You're saying we are seeing a drop in fertility around the world and we are seeing an increase in AI.
There is the concern of, you know, AI being broken and going rogue.
But at any rate, humans are just not having kids.
We're going to have cities that are empty.
You look at places like Detroit.
paul skallas
I think the cities are going to resemble, like, you won't know there won't be anything wrong in the cities because everybody's going to be in the cities.
Just once you're outside of it, that's where you're going to see, like, Mad Max.
You're going to see, like, elephants and, like, mammoths.
unidentified
It's going to be like that Judge Dredd type atmosphere.
tim pool
In the US?
In the United States?
paul skallas
Yeah, everywhere.
I mean, are animals and wildlife bad?
I don't think so.
tim pool
But, like, why would there be elephants walking around North America?
Because of the zoos?
paul skallas
Because there's fucking empty.
Because it's like, nature, like, regenerates.
They're going to try maybe a Jurassic Park project, probably, somewhere.
tim pool
But, you know, it's funny.
We've got elephants in zoos, and if society does break down, those elephants might just get out.
And then you've got elephants in North America now.
We brought them here.
There you go.
Buffaloes.
Yeah, buffalo everywhere.
paul skallas
We're just replaying Lewis and Clark again.
tim pool
Yeah.
But, you know, in the cities that we're in, you think there's not going to be any people living in the rural areas or outside of cities?
paul skallas
No, there will.
There will.
I mean, in America, it has a really strong rural, suburban type, you know, most cold Americans are suburban and kind of rural.
We don't have a lot of good cities.
Our cities kind of suck.
New York is all right.
Boston, D.C., San Francisco.
But really, it's more of a suburban people.
So I think America actually likes space, and they'll be all right.
But other places, you'll have a lot of empty rural areas and animals and stuff.
tim pool
So you think people who live in rural areas are going to move into cities?
Yeah.
It's happening now.
paul skallas
I mean, if you look at the map from the last 20 years to today, it's massive rural migration to cities.
tim pool
But you're still going to have a massively decreased population.
So when you look at Detroit, for instance, or Detroit's probably the best example, there are whole neighborhoods that are just empty.
There's nothing there.
paul skallas
Right, yeah.
tim pool
And the buildings fall apart.
paul skallas
But if you look at Detroit suburbs, I mean, they look beautiful.
They're gorgeous.
Sort of, they're full of life and people.
So people don't, Americans don't really want to live in cities if they have access to beautiful suburbs, is my kind of conclusion.
tim pool
Yeah.
What's your timeline on all that?
20 years?
paul skallas
No.
tim pool
Longer?
paul skallas
Yeah, 50 to 100.
tim pool
50 to 100 years.
So where, are you familiar with Strauss Howe generational theory?
paul skallas
No, go ahead.
tim pool
They call it the turnings.
We're in the fourth turning to describe it.
You've heard that phrase?
paul skallas
Yeah.
tim pool
So right now they expect maybe, I don't know, next year or from like – it depends on what guess you want to make, but maybe 2026 to 28. We're supposed to get some great crisis period if this formula is correct.
So 80 years ago you had – World Wars, eight years before that, you had a Civil War, eight years before that, you had a Revolutionary War.
And I can't remember the conflict eight years before that, but there was something.
And it's because of the way in which generations perceive the world that's given to them.
You know, the ones who fight through the fourth turning are very appreciative and hardworking.
They have kids who inherit without struggle, who have kids who inherit without struggle.
And then finally, that fourth generation is just they're reckless with what they've been given.
And it results in fighting or conflict.
That's supposed to happen.
So I'm wondering if the timeline's actually, if we add that into the equation, will it be faster than 50 to 100 years if something does happen in the next couple?
paul skallas
I think time is speeding up because we're all connected.
So there's like a theory that time is actually going faster because the Internet exists.
And, you know, people from India to here to all over the world are all...
So you should be expecting more things happening.
And we just saw a pandemic, which we kind of forget that pandemics come every hundred years, right?
And we should probably expect maybe a war soon, because those happen every hundred years.
So, I mean, history is not done, and it's hard to predict when it's going to happen and what, but, I mean, things are going to be happening.
tim pool
Yeah, I mean there's – Then you've got, as you mentioned, Israel-Palestine.
There's like a mission driven behind it.
How do you think a potential for a war would play into the fertility decline or also the AI revolution?
unidentified
It'd probably increase it, right?
paul skallas
Usually there's baby booms after wars, right?
That's what we saw last time.
tim pool
You're saying we're going to get more – a fertility boom after a conflict.
Except for itself.
paul skallas
Right.
Which is happening.
I mean you see red states and blue states kind of separating on policy, like banning like meat, I think lab-grown meat.
Florida is banning the fluoride in the water.
You're seeing – Just localism reemerge, and it's just going to continue.
So that's going to be a fascinating experiment.
tim pool
Do you think there's any potential for civil war in the United States in that capacity?
paul skallas
I guess that's the one way America's going to be brought down, right?
It's civil war.
It happened already.
probably happen again.
I just don't see anybody caring, like another nation wanting to Right.
tim pool
From the West, you've got too many mountains.
From the East, a lot of people.
paul skallas
Very difficult.
So usually if this country is going to end, it's going to split up in a civil war.
tim pool
Yeah.
I see precursors.
I've talked about it with quite a lot of people.
Obviously, it comes up on the show sometimes that academics refer to what we're in as civil strife, meaning that there's a certain number of deaths that are politically motivated in conflict.
Do you see any of that stuff?
What's your view on that?
paul skallas
Sorry, on what?
tim pool
Like, are we, is it actually possible a civil war happens, or are you saying that's the only way the U.S. could be brought down?
paul skallas
No, it's possible.
I also think the U.S. is kind of built to consume, and there's a certain standard of living, and I think a hard depression is, would, I think the post-war America is kind of a different America than the 19th century America.
I think we're a different country, right?
So I don't think post-war America has faced a really deep, dark recession.
And I don't know what would happen.
Because this country is kind of built on consumption and built on, you know, you have a house.
You put stuff in your house.
We have things.
We have, you know, we don't have a leisure culture.
We have like a work and consume culture.
So I don't know what could happen if a big financial crisis that's even bigger than 2008 happened.
tim pool
I think – man, it's kind of crazy.
Maybe it's pessimistic, but it does feel like you've got political hyperpolarization.
You've got potential for international escalation in war.
You've got the fears over AI.
And maybe that one is more speculative.
But then you've got concern over a global economic collapse or at least a depression in the United States.
I think these are all real considerations.
I think a financial collapse is – Like, we're overspending.
Our debt-to-GDP ratio is like 125%.
unidentified
Yeah, I mean, that could happen.
paul skallas
We're heading toward some sort of default bankruptcy situation, and I don't think any political party cares or wants to care.
You saw that with Elon Musk.
He just gave up.
tim pool
Did you think he gave up?
Or he's just got to run his companies?
paul skallas
No, I think he gave up.
I think he tweeted something about how nobody seriously cares about doge or cutting spending, and yeah, he left.
I think there's a quality of life here, and nobody's going to mess around with that.
No political party wants to mess around with that.
And we're just going to keep going.
tim pool
But if you don't prune the leaves or the errant branches – They're all just sort of running to the high point of the Titanic as it's sinking.
paul skallas
It doesn't seem like it's sinking, though, right?
I mean, there's unimaginable wealth for the regular American in a way.
I mean, go to Europe, you know, people there make half or a third of what regular Americans make.
I mean, so it doesn't feel that way right now.
So a lot of what you're saying is it could happen, but.
tim pool
I think it feels that way.
I think the argument is it may not be that way, but, you know, there's a bunch of viral posts.
There was a viral post on Reddit, got millions of hits or whatever, talking about how if you watch Friends or you watch these old shows from the 90s, there was this depiction of culture or the description of culture as having a lot of leisure.
Someone mentioned a song.
I think it was Billy Joel.
He said that he and his friends would just go and buy a bottle of wine and hang out.
And then they wrote, yeah, we did that with our friends and it was like a $200 bill at the restaurant to have some appetizers and wine with our buddies where it used to be cheap.
So I think a lot of people – well, I'll put it this way.
Gen Z can't buy homes.
They're entering their late 20s.
They're not getting married.
They're not having kids.
They're not buying properties.
It certainly feels like the ship is sinking.
Maybe – For the older millennials, Gen X and boomers, they're the last helicopter out of Nam, but I think the younger generations feel like it's gone.
paul skallas
Yeah, I think this country has changed since the 90s.
I mean, like you mentioned, full employment and a better economy.
There was a culture there of people complaining about regular jobs like office space or flight club that people are running to right now.
unidentified
So, different culture.
tim pool
Millennials, I think half of millennials own homes and something like 7% of Gen Z owns homes.
paul skallas
Yeah, but they're going to inherit.
Millennials are going to inherit a lot of homes.
tim pool
But they don't need them, so what do they do with them?
paul skallas
Good point.
tim pool
So this is the issue, right?
Gen Z is not buying property right now where they historically would have been.
At the same age, boomers owned 20%.
In their mid-20s, boomers owned 20% of corporate equities.
Gen Z owns zero.
Millennials own, I think, like 5%.
So it may be that boomers will die and then millennials will inherit a lot of it.
But actually, I think BlackRock and large international corporations will inherit it all because Gen Z won't have the capital to – look, if millennials inherit these houses, let's say in 20 years when boomers are largely passing on.
They're going to inherit a home that's going to be worth a million dollars.
A home today that's at $500 might be a million by then.
But they're not going to be able to sell it for a million because boomers are the only ones who have the equity to actually buy or get loans against it.
Gen Z won't be buying it.
So they'll try and drop the prices and then likely what happens is BlackRock or these big private equity firms will buy them up at a premium rate but above what Gen Z can spend.
And that's a phenomenon we're already seeing.
Millennials will put an offer on a house and then BlackRock will offer 30% higher because they can afford to.
And it's driving prices up and making it unreachable.
Maybe that system breaks and we find a way through it, but it does seem like it's not improving.
paul skallas
Where does your house go if you don't have any kids, right?
Like, what do you do?
Let's say you're a millennial and you're like 60 and you're ready to leave.
You just sell your house.
I mean, where do you go?
So there's like a weird transference of wealth issue if nobody's having kids either.
tim pool
I think 20 years from now, millennials, half of them own homes.
And so we're starting to see this now because I've experienced it in the market.
You'll find a house and the seller will be like, parents died, older millennials inherited it, don't want to move back home.
They live in New York now.
Like you mentioned, they're going to cities or something.
So they're trying to sell it.
The problem then is...
They don't want to deal with taxes.
They don't want to lose it.
So they drop the price.
So maybe we'll see a pricing collapse.
Then, of course, what's been happening is that another millennial couple says, we want to buy our first home.
It's a $300,000 house.
BlackRock says we'll give you $330,000, which has been a big trend.
So I don't know.
I mean, maybe you're right.
Maybe we shouldn't be so pessimistic.
Maybe we'll end up with a lot of houses and it'll correct itself.
paul skallas
Or, you know, the scenario of one company owning.
Large percentage of the housing stock could absolutely happen here as well.
tim pool
Another nightmarish futuristic dystopia.
paul skallas
America is pretty – it's an unpredictable country, man.
You never know what's going to happen here because there's such a heavy private – That's so – and the government – government's hit and miss.
Like you can get involved or maybe it won't get involved.
So it's hard to play out some scenarios because you never really know because this country is really – it's the most unpredictable country in the world in my opinion.
tim pool
Yeah.
What do you think – last final question.
I just – where do you think the Trump movement or MAGA ends up?
paul skallas
Like the movement or the presidency?
tim pool
Well, I mean like obviously Trump's going to leave.
He's an old man.
Term's going to end.
But what happens to this populist MAGA, whatever you want to call it?
They keep going?
Does it evolve?
paul skallas
I don't think so.
I think this is really – Donald Trump is an extraordinary politician, the first celebrity of the media monoculture of the 20th century.
The only way they could have defeated him was with the pandemic, and then he still came back to win, right?
He's such a large figure in American politics and a transformative one that it's – usually what happens is when he's gone, the movement's gone too.
So my opinion is this is kind – like there'll be – I think there'll be elements of this MAGA movement that always exists.
But I really think – it's really difficult to think about MAGA without Trump because I think he's just – Even if you hate him or love him, he's still his giant.
Right on.
tim pool
Well, the Lindy Man, man.
It's been great hanging out with you.
Where can people find you?
paul skallas
Twitter.
To search Lindy Man.
I'll be there.
tim pool
Right on.
Well, thanks for hanging out and I appreciate you joining in.
unidentified
Thanks, Tim.
See ya.
tim pool
Have a good one.
unidentified
Yep.
tim pool
All right.
That was...
Lindy Man.
You know, we're just—we're getting back into it after that holiday weekend.
And I will say it's fascinating how it is—look, let's just be real.
It's people were barbecuing, they were grilling, they were enjoying their time.
And that's what people are going to remember, okay?
You're going to focus on the good memories you had.
I went swimming, went to a skate park.
We went to— We got to hang out with really great people.
Travis Pastrana, the Black Rifle Coffee guys, JT, put in a big event for veterans, injured veterans, lost veterans, veterans with cancer.
And so I think it's important to make sure you're always putting that footnote in why we're having this day off.
We are getting a beautiful three-day weekend.
To enjoy the fruits of those who sacrificed everything, what they've gifted to us.
And so you've got to make sure you recognize that.
All of that goodness that you have comes from someone else willing to sacrifice something you weren't.
You know, this really is a big divide between left and right.
When Conal Harris says, enjoy the three-day weekend, and everybody on the right said, don't forget the fallen.
So, I think people on the right aren't saying, don't enjoy your weekend.
They're just saying, make sure you remember why.
But we're going to wrap it up there, my friends.
We're going to throw it to our good friend, I believe we have Russell Brand gearing up right now.
But my point is we're coming back from Memorial Day, so I'm not entirely sure who exactly is geared up, but Russell Brand is getting ready to go, so we're going to raid that channel.
Really do appreciate you guys hanging out.
It's been fun.
We're back for the week.
Let's see.
I don't have the guest list for Timcast IRL.
So Timcast IRL tonight at 8pm.
You don't want to miss it.
You can follow me on Axe and Instagram at Timcast.
Let's get that raid rolling.
Maybe I'll grab one Rumble Rant if we got any.
Alright, let's see.
Arsonist says, Tim, have you played Claire Obscure Exposition 33?
It's definitely Game of the Year.
Please look into it.
You know, my boy Andy keeps saying download it and play it.
Maybe I have to now.
Not because he said to, because you guys said to.
Because the audience did.
All right, everybody.
I'm going to wrap it up there.
Smash the like button.
Share the show with everyone you know.
Thanks for hanging out.
And we'll see you tonight at 8 p.m.
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