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March 13, 2023 - Timcast IRL - Tim Pool
02:03:00
Timcast IRL - SVB Historical Bank FAILURES Spark Fear As $100B WIPED OUT IN A DAY w/Drew Miller
Participants
Main voices
d
drew miller
32:15
i
ian crossland
10:53
p
phil labonte
14:24
t
tim pool
01:02:58
Appearances
s
serge du preez
01:00
| Copy link to current segment

Speaker Time Text
unidentified
Peace.
tim pool
Maybe it's not.
unidentified
I don't know.
tim pool
Over the past weekend, we saw two of the biggest banking collapses in U.S.
history with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
That is the second largest collapse in history, followed only a few days later by the third largest collapse in U.S.
history.
One hundred billion dollars from these banks' market caps have been wiped out.
We saw a massive wave of trading halts in the stock market.
And it's not too confidence-building.
Especially when Joe Biden, for once, wakes up at 9 a.m.
to talk to the American people about just what's going on, saying, don't worry, everything's under control.
Of course, now, most people don't think anything is under control, and it's actually causing a lot of fear, so we'll talk about that.
Plus, we got a bunch of other stories, too.
We made a bit of news on Friday, I guess, because Steve Bannon criticized Elon Musk, and then every outlet in the world decided to write it up.
And then Matt Gaetz took a clip of it, and then Elon Musk himself essentially just called
Steve Bannon not smart and evil.
We'll talk about that.
Plus a whole bunch of other weird things like, I don't know, some giant rock in space is
going to fly past the Earth, so the apocalypse may be coming sooner than we think.
And then you've got H5N1 fears, because apparently bird flu has been wiping out chickens, and
there's concern over whether or not it's now transferring to mammals, which it is.
And this has a 60% mortality rate.
But with all the news about the apocalypse, we got a lot to talk about.
But before we get started, my friends, head over to TimCast.com.
Click that Join Us button and become a member to support our work directly, and you will
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Don't forget to also smash that like button, subscribe to this channel, share the show with your friends, and in light of the fact that we are talking about all of these different apocalyptic scenarios, we are being joined by Drew Miller of Fortitude Ridge.
drew miller
Thanks, Tim.
It's great to be on the show.
tim pool
You want to pull up that microphone?
Sure.
And who are you, and what is Fortitude Ranch?
drew miller
I'm CEO of Fortitude Ranch, a recreational and survival community, and whether it's a banking collapse, a civil war, an asteroid hitting the earth and causing crop failures over the next several years, or what I'm really worried about, an H5N1, a human-transmissible form of bird flu, our members, including yourself, will be able to survive it by coming to one of our facilities in rural areas and riding out the collapse.
tim pool
And aside from that, if you're not a prepper, it's just a fun place to hang out.
drew miller
Yep, we're a recreational facility, too.
tim pool
That's right.
Chickens.
drew miller
Enjoy the good times, prepare for the worst.
Shooting range.
tim pool
It's good stuff.
Well, we got a lot to talk about, too, especially with your experience with all of this stuff, so this should get interesting.
Thanks for hanging out.
drew miller
Thank you.
tim pool
We also got Phil Labonte chillin'.
phil labonte
Hello, I am Phil Labonte, anti-communist and counter-revolutionary.
ian crossland
Oh, and I'm Ian Crosland, probably the opposite of that.
No, no, I'm not.
I'm just kidding.
I'm not a communist.
Phil and I drove to Congress the other night, there and back, and we had some deep conversations about philosophy and spirituality.
I think Phil and I are like two heads of a coin, whereas he's the philosopher, I'm the spiritualist.
But it was a pretty fun conversation trying to identify God through math.
phil labonte
I thoroughly enjoyed hanging out with you, Ian.
ian crossland
It was a good time.
What's up, Drew?
I see you got cards you're going to be showing us.
unidentified
Yeah.
ian crossland
I think those will come up later on the show.
unidentified
Slides.
ian crossland
Slides.
unidentified
All right.
ian crossland
Well, let's move this along.
Serge?
serge du preez
Yo, what's up?
Hopefully the audio works this time, huh, guys?
tim pool
Well, in studio seems to be fine.
You want to pop the window open and then we'll jump into this first story.
All right, ladies and gentlemen, we got this story from TimCast.com.
President Joe Biden tells Americans to have confidence in banking system as additional banks fail.
Silicon Valley banks and signature banks were both taken over by the federal government amid collapsing share prices.
I also want to point out that for some of the images we use on TimCast.com, they're AI-generated.
Just look at how horrifying.
This is like, this picture of Bank Run has these people screaming, but it's like the Junji Ito of Bank Run AI-generated images.
It looks like these people are being hunted down by some demon that's stealing their soul as the banks collapse.
But anyway, I thought that was funny.
The federal government took control of Silicon Valley banks, a top bank in the tech sector, on March 10th, after its share price rapidly plummeted.
New York regulators announced on March 12th that they have taken control of Signature Bank, known for real estate lending and serving clients tied to the cryptocurrency industry.
unidentified
Quote.
tim pool
The bottom line is this.
Americans can rest assured that our banking system is safe.
Your deposits are safe.
Biden said during a press conference at the White House on March 13th.
Let me also assure you we will not stop at this.
We'll do whatever is needed.
Oh boy.
I love how when Palestine has this massive chemical spill, he didn't even show up.
He didn't even mention it.
Okay, he mentioned it.
Don't get me wrong.
But there's no bailouts, they don't care about the people who live there.
But when millionaires and billionaires in Silicon Valley have their woke tech sector threatened, he comes out on TV and says, at 9 in the morning of all times, Joe Biden waking up at 9am saying, we're gonna take care of this, nothing to worry about.
Here's what I think.
I hate...
I hate to go on a show with as many viewers as this and be like, the end is nigh, or something like that, but Joe Biden has to come out and say this.
He has to.
Because if he doesn't, there's a run on the banks.
And if people go on TV and say anything other than, everything is a-okay, then there's a run on the banks.
So that's the default position of every personality in media, whether it's true or not, I don't know, is to come out and pretend like everything's gonna be fine.
drew miller
It doesn't make any sense because your banks insure for $250,000 per account.
So 99% of Americans' banks can fail.
FDIC, they're insured.
You have nothing to lose.
So it's amazing to me that Biden is panicking and doing this stuff for the ultra-rich.
You have more than $250,000.
So for Silicon Valley Bank, he's just helping out big tech companies and rich investors in big tech companies because normal people Who had deposits at Silicon Valley Bank have nothing to worry about.
Most people don't have $250,000 sitting in a checking or a bank account.
They had nothing to lose.
tim pool
Yep.
And so what they're going to be doing is, apparently, the FDIC will cover deposits above $250,000.
And apparently, I guess, BuzzFeed had all their money in Silicon Valley Bank.
Well, now I'm really encouraging no bailouts.
drew miller
It doesn't benefit us.
It hurts the normal people because that means federal government's bailing it out.
That means more debt.
That means more inflation that everyone, including poor people, will pay.
And this is just a move to help rich people who have more than $250,000 in big companies and banks.
It makes no sense to be doing this.
phil labonte
Well, I was listening to a Space today.
Most of the day I was listening to Spaces and just trying to wrap my head around what's going on.
And from what I can gather is the biggest worry is contagion to other banks.
So we've got two of the biggest bank failures in American history happening over the course of the past weekend.
I am of the opinion that if the government's going to bail everyone out, or bail the banks out, because the government has basically taken responsibility for any failures in the banking industry.
They've bailed out Everybody, every time that there's been any kind of... The rich elites.
ian crossland
Big banks.
phil labonte
I mean, to be fair, they printed a lot of money, and whenever the government prints money and it goes to the people, it ends up with the big banks and the big corporations anyways, because everyone gets that money and they spend it.
It's not like people go and they sit on it when they get, if you get 500 bucks from the government, if the government, when the government, you know, was passing out cash, people didn't sit on that and it wasn't enough money to change anyone's life or that they're gonna invest with it anyways.
So that money just ends up in the big corporations' hands anyways, because people spend it.
So they're just gonna continue to print money, because that's what they have to do.
So when they get together again, when the Fed gets together again, instead of doing 50 basis points, it's likely they're gonna do 25, it's possible they're gonna do zero, and then they'll see what happens.
I don't know what's gonna happen between now and then, obviously, but they're gonna take the break off the raising of rates, because they can't have the rate, I can't keep, Keep raising interest rates the way that they are with this kind of monetary situation in the US.
ian crossland
Or they want to provoke loans to the banks, basically.
So Bannon asked me on Friday, Steve Bannon, why it's a Ponzi scheme, this economic system that we're in, and I gave him like a half answer.
I said that it's because we're borrowing money from our banks, our institutions, our government is borrowing money from the Federal Reserve and then promising to pay them back with interest.
The only way to get that interest is to borrow more money from them at interest to pay back the interest, which now we owe interest on the new borrow, so we have to borrow more to pay back the interest on the interest.
And the real Ponzi is when what happens is that money goes to the banks, then the banks loan out to the common American for mortgages, and then they have to pay the interest.
They push the interest down to the small guy.
Sort of.
And so all this whole system is banked off these 40-year interest payments by American people, constantly paying more than they borrowed to fund this Federal Reserve usury.
phil labonte
Well, I mean, it's sort of to fund that, but remember, when you are getting a mortgage, you're getting a house, too.
ian crossland
You pay the debt.
It's technically owned by the bank until you pay them back.
phil labonte
Well, yeah, but you get to live in the house.
It's not a one-sided operation, is what I'm saying.
I understand what you're saying, that it's frustrating that you have to pay more than what you're borrowing, but that's why the banks are in business.
So that way, they'll lend you the money, you pay them more than they actually lended you.
That's the business model.
tim pool
Let's talk about it seriously.
A lot of people, they don't like international war and things like that.
A lot of people, they don't like the petrodollar, they don't like imperialism, they don't like big bank bailouts.
But I believe, for the most part, not completely, but for the most part, these are the evil things that these evil people do that does have a positive effect for a lot of people in this country.
That is, when the U.S.
military is setting up military bases in foreign countries and pointing guns at people and saying, use the U.S.
dollar or else, it creates demand for our currency and then we don't have to do as much work.
And if the petrodollar collapses, then we're going to have to go back to chopping wood and raising chickens on our own and actually producing things in our country, something most Americans aren't prepared for and don't want to do.
phil labonte
Most Americans that are young now, they're just demanding free stuff.
Ken Klippenstein today was tweeting about forgiving student loans.
Like today?
Because they're talking about bailing out banks?
The banks that, if you bail out a bank, you're bailing out a bank because people had money that they put into the bank.
So that's completely and totally isolated from, like, The situation with student loans where people didn't have money, they borrowed money, they got an education, ostensibly, and then they're asking to be forgiven for that borrowing money?
Well you're the one, you're getting the forgiveness for the education, or for the borrowing money, and you get to walk away with the education!
You're getting free shit!
ian crossland
It's the interest.
It's the excessive compounding interest that is the problem.
They used to call it usury.
phil labonte
That's fine, but that's not the same thing as forgiving the loan in totality.
ian crossland
Correct.
phil labonte
That's different.
ian crossland
Yeah.
I don't ever, I'll hardly ever advocate for just deleting people's loans.
I think that's kind of dumb.
But like, the idea, the profiting mechanism of loaning money, I get it.
It was a risk.
If I loan you a hundred bucks, there's a risk you'll never show up again.
So I've got to at least like, give me a hundred and ten back.
That way if I loan out ten times and one of those guys walks away, at least I made my money back.
But it's excessive.
Compounding interest, debt upon debt, is like...
It's almost incalculable by the common American mind.
tim pool
It is.
The issue here is how our whole economy is one big Ponzi scheme from the get-go that is unsustainable.
And going back to 2008, we can clearly see there's holes in the system.
They put a Band-Aid over those holes, but the water is spraying through.
The ship is sinking.
And now we're seeing... It's like that cartoon where the holes are popping up in the hole and the cartoon character is putting his fingers and then his toes and his eye or whatever.
You're not gonna stop it.
But here's what I want to say.
Bailouts?
Okay.
If you want to sit in your lounge chair and watch sports and order nachos and drink beer and not have to worry about anything, you want the bailouts.
You want it all.
If you are an entitled Gen Z or Millennial who wants to go to college for gender studies, you want the bailouts.
And this is why you are seeing the default liberal and leftist be like, we need to make sure we take care of this.
Because then they prop up the system that allows them to do nothing.
Me, I kind of think we need to go back to a A little bit of hard work.
I'm not saying everybody should go work on ranches where they tend to chickens and goats and stuff like that, but maybe just a little bit.
Because right now we got a bunch of, like that viral video of the Gen Z-er being like, why do I have to work to live?
phil labonte
That is burned into my brain.
tim pool
Make them work!
Just let the banks fail.
Then they can go be like, I'm hungry.
Be like, well, start picking food yourself.
Grow your own food and chickens or whatever.
ian crossland
Biden says that none of these losses will be borne by the taxpayer from this bailout.
He tweeted that seven hours ago for the record.
He said we'll pay for it from the fees the banks pay into the deposit insurance fund.
Now I understand wanting to bail out $250,000 of uninsured.
A lot of the, 95% of the accounts in this Silicon Valley bank thing were not insured.
So all those $250,000 accounts are gone, but they're decided to bail them out.
I understand bailing out the small investor or companies up to $250,000.
drew miller
I don't think that's correct.
Again, if you had less than $250,000 in that bank or any bank, you have no risk.
ian crossland
If you're FDIC insured.
tim pool
They all are.
drew miller
The only ones who are getting bailed out are the ones who are beyond $250,000.
So there were big tech companies that this bank invested in.
And people invested money in these companies and this bank did too.
So we're bailing out a bank because their huge big payoffs didn't work for them and they failed.
And it's back just like we did in 2008.
We invested in tons of taxpayer money to bail out Wall Street firms Who had huge investments in derivatives, making billions of dollars of profits for the people working in those Wall Street banks of zero value to American citizens.
But, you know, Goldman Sachs, the treasurer, the Secretary of Treasury at that time, was a former Goldman Sachs CEO.
And Federal Reserve people, Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street firms, and the government and the Federal Reserve, full of people from Wall Street, bailed out Wall Street at the expense of the rest of the citizens.
You know, the too-big-to-fail argument.
And that's what's going on here the same way.
In this case, you're bailing out banks that did bad investments in tech companies, and tech companies that make big donations to people from both political parties.
That's who's getting bailed out. This is not to help low-income people with $250,000 bank money
in there. This is just people at the bank making big investments that are getting bailed out from
unidentified
this, not normal citizens. Let's talk about bad investments.
tim pool
BuzzFeed says most of cash and cash equivalents held at SVB. This is from Yahoo Finance.
BuzzFeed Inc., Reuters actually, said on Monday that most of its cash and equivalents were held at Silicon Valley Bank, which was shut down.
Startup focus under SVB last week failed.
Shares in BuzzFeed were down 8.6% at $1.17 in extended trading Monday.
Wow, that's really bad!
phil labonte
Silver linings.
tim pool
It's like, well, I mean, like, it's down 8%, which is really bad, but they're only at $1.17 per share anyway, which is just really bad.
The company, which has been grappling with a tough advertising market amid concerns over a slowing economy, also reported a 27% decline in ad revenue to $50 million in the quarter ending December 31st.
It expects first quarter overall revenue to range from $61 million to $67 million.
They reported a revenue of $91.6 million for the same period that last year.
Let SVB fill.
Because, you know, I'm not trying to be a dick, but that BuzzFeed goes with it.
But I guess what some people in the super chat are saying is that even with FDIC insurance, it's going to take months before depositors can start getting access to their funding.
So that means even one of the craziest stories I saw, because someone mentioned this last week, Etsy sellers didn't get paid.
Now my understanding is if you're a seller on Etsy, you, like, I make, you know, a doily or something, and then someone buys it, and they use this marketplace, and then I send it out.
But the fact is, the people bought a product, Etsy held the money, and the Etsy sellers didn't get paid.
That's crazy.
That's what happens.
And then what may happen is even with the National Deposit Bank from the FDIC for these companies, BuzzFeed's funds might be jammed up and their employees might not get paid.
This is going literally to have a ripple effect.
Now I also want to address this thing real quick too.
BuzzFeed saying that their revenues are dropping due to a tough advertising market.
I can confirm that is a fact, because I've talked about it here.
So, take this into consideration.
With the banking industry getting hit this bad, I can also tell you, like, our revenue is down.
Not to the point where I'm crying about it or anything, because we do well enough, but that's why I'm like, hey everybody, become a member!
So that we can continue paying our staff and continue funding these projects and everything like that.
Uh, because the market seems like it's headed towards a very, very serious downturn.
This is interesting because BuzzFeed's reporting their ad revenue is down, is projected to be $61 to $67 million, down from $91.
That's basically what I was saying, like 40, 30, 30 to 40 percent drop-off.
But that, right now, should be increasing, not decreasing, which suggests this year is gonna get really, really bad for media.
And when media gets hit, it's because the base of the economy, the grassroots, already got hit.
So, what this is?
We're effectively a canary in a coal mine.
When small mom-and-pop shops stop their $100 budget per month for their little grocery store or diner, And then we, it all of like, let's say there's a hundred thousand small businesses across the country, just hypothetically, that are buying a small amount of advertising.
It all trickles up into a handful of small media personalities who then all yell, our revenue dropped dramatically.
Basically telling you that at the individual granular level, revenues are dropping and spending is dropping, which means The next step is going to be serious economic downturn.
With the banks collapsing, with BuzzFeed even complaining about it, not that I care if BuzzFeed collapses to be completely honest, it would suck if people lost their jobs, but I don't know if these are jobs worth saving.
That being said, it will have a contagious ripple effect.
So the question is, how do you feel about the current state of things?
Because I gotta be honest, I have absolutely, maybe, maybe, I don't want to pull a Bill Maher here, but I personally have no problem myself with having to go and chop wood and then forage for food.
Literally, we ate chives fresh off the ground.
We go out in the backyard, we grab chives out of the ground and eat them.
They're delicious.
We have chickens.
I'd have absolutely no problem going to a place like Fortitude Ranch, rolling up my sleeves and taking care of animals.
That being said, I don't know if y'all do.
And then people have kids and people have medical conditions.
People with diabetes especially need access to these things.
If you like the level of comfort we have, you probably want the government to bail out all these people.
phil labonte
Everyone that, just like you said, everyone that enjoys a modern lifestyle, at the end of the day, you do want the banks to be bailed out.
As much as everyone's going to say they don't, you have to be prepared for I am so down.
I mean, fair enough.
I mean, but it's like, if you don't know how to do things, and you don't have a place to go, and you don't have some savings, and some food, and some stuff handled, Things are gonna be really horrible for you.
Like, I mean, the estimates that you hear, after the first year, it's something like 10%.
If the US, like the dollar, collapsed.
Something like 10% of the population will make it.
Or something ridiculously small.
It's not something that anyone should be hoping for unless they've already been planned for forever.
Let me read the super chat.
tim pool
I want to read the super chat real quick.
Olivia Claire says, I'm an Etsy seller.
I should be getting paid today for last week's sales.
It said it won't transfer until tomorrow.
I rely on Etsy as my main income at the moment.
Really scary time as a seller.
And sellers shouldn't have their money being withheld.
I mean, you're the person selling.
But SVB's money's jammed up, so let's see if they move in quick enough.
And if they don't, The crazy thing is if the individual can't get their money, let's say it takes three months, that means they're not buying cheeseburgers, that means local mom and pop shop diner, they're not selling cheeseburgers, they ain't buying ads.
They're not paying their employees, their employees ain't buying cheeseburgers, and it cycles through, it ripples through.
drew miller
Yeah, but you just can't have this continue.
You can't keep bailing out firms and they make bad investments in derivatives and spend billions and waste it and then we bail them out and now SVP has made bad tech investments, they've lost money, now we're bailing out.
You can't do that forever.
Ultimately people have to pay for that and the debt keeps going up, inflation's going up, and you reach a point where you can't do it.
And you just encourage more of this bad investment when you bail people out.
It's called the moral hazard problem.
It's exactly what we're doing when we keep bailing out.
And again, we're not bailing out, you know, small account people.
They will be protected.
They will be repaid.
We're bailing out big tech companies with SVP, just like we bailed out big Wall Street firms before.
tim pool
It's worse than that.
It's bailing out wokeness specifically.
Here's my belief.
If you take a look at Silicon Valley Bank's mission statement stuff, boy, did they invest a lot in diversity, equity, occlusion, and access, they call it.
D-E-I-A.
They put an extra A at the end of there.
And apparently their chief risk officer was laid off and they didn't refill the position, but they did hire an LGBTQ advocate for seminars.
And so everyone's like, what was your priority?
Why would that be a surprise to anybody that a Silicon Valley bank prioritized their religion over the function of their business?
It's what they do, right?
So here's what I think.
I'm willing to bet that SVB started investing in companies based on wokeness and not merit.
So they would go to a company and be like, okay, so you're a tech company, what do you
do?
We have an app.
What does your app do?
It's a texting app.
How will it make money?
We have a really diverse team of people who work here.
Really?
How much money do you need?
Five, 50 million?
Fifty million?
And you said you preach diversity.
That's right.
Great!
Here's the money.
ian crossland
Our app is so diverse, it lets black people find black businesses.
It's the most racist app on the planet.
No, it's for white people that can find white-owned businesses.
tim pool
That's actually what they do.
ian crossland
It's not diverse in any way.
It's segregated and racist.
tim pool
It's like when they made Black Panther, they're like, this movie's very diverse, and it's like the cast was 95% black.
That's not diversity!
ian crossland
Diversity will focus exclusively on one race of people.
tim pool
Who in the audience would disagree with me, 1 if you disagree, 20 if you agree, that SVB was likely investing in companies based on diversity and not based on the function of their business?
ian crossland
They were pretty open about it.
I haven't been able to look at the books, but they said as such on their website.
tim pool
Yeah, they had an A rating with an AESG score.
I'm gonna tell you this, I don't want to give anybody advice, but I...
I'm thinking about investing my money in stocks from companies that have the lowest possible ESG score and getting all of my money out of anything with a high ESG score.
ian crossland
You sound like Vivek Ramaswamy.
tim pool
Is that what he said?
ian crossland
I don't know if he said those exact words.
That's what he's all about.
Investing your money in non-ESG right now.
tim pool
I think that sounds right.
If a company is focusing their efforts on environmental social governance, that is not a functioning business.
phil labonte
Everything that's for if you're focusing on social issues and right now essentially what happens is ESG is social issues being shoved into into businesses and bureaucracies and stuff like that you see the social issues in In schools and stuff, and that's part of why test scores are so, are going, go down every year.
You spend more money every year and test scores keep going down every year.
It, it, it's essentially supplanting the purpose for every single thing that it touches.
So if it's schools, it, it's, it, it corrupts them and they, and you, and it stops, you stop churning out kids that know anything.
tim pool
There's a there's a comic from Stone Toss.
I know the left really hates Stone Toss, but it's an advertising agency.
And then the the advertising guy is market is he's got a burger restaurant clients.
And he's like, here's our proposed ad campaign.
And it's a white person and a black person making out.
And the guy's like, how is this going to sell cheeseburgers?
And the guy goes, cheeseburgers?
But that's a really good example of what this is.
ian crossland
Same reason why FTX failed, the crypto thing.
tim pool
Well, they were doing ESG stuff.
ian crossland
Yeah, obsessively ESG.
Sam Bankman-Fried would talk about it.
phil labonte
I think there's more to it than that.
tim pool
I love him, man.
ian crossland
Yeah, he's big into investing in climate change.
There's video of him being like, we're gonna fix the world with impact investment.
He used different words, but that was the purpose.
tim pool
No, Bitcoin's doing really well.
ian crossland
Spend your money on what they want.
phil labonte
There's an argument I've heard people talking today that there are people that believe that this is actually going to be a decoupling event.
So the reason that Bitcoin in the markets responded positively once Biden started talking, I guess, is because everyone essentially assumed, or the markets assumed, that There was going to be a slowing to the raising of interest rates.
And so people are like, well, we can, you know, get cheap money or make, you know, continue to invest in things and stuff.
ian crossland
You know, the biggest crime that I'd see out of this whole thing with this SVB is the execs.
Five executives paid them.
They sold stock within the two months leading up to the crumble for millions.
I think every executive made over a million.
The CEO making $2.3 million or something?
Roughly.
It may be somebody made under.
And they also apparently paid out a big bonus to a bunch of employees on Friday, right before the announcement.
That's a crime.
That is absolutely... Investigate that.
Investigate those executives.
Take that money back.
Pay back the people that lost money with that.
That's scandalous.
drew miller
That's not going to happen again.
Back in 2008 when they did this, they did the same thing.
They weren't just bailing out the Wall Street firms like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department.
They basically negotiated the sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America.
Part of the deal was millions of dollars in bonuses to these Merrill Lynch execs so they wouldn't leave the company and they could get the deal done.
You couldn't list all the illegal things going on negotiated by Federal Reserve U.S.
Treasury Department officials, many of them former Golden and Sachs employees, they did it openly.
They got millions and nothing was, it was approved.
It was your taxpayer dollars helped finance that.
So it's happened before, it's going to keep on happening.
ian crossland
It's the norm.
Biden tweeted this out eight hours ago, the management of both these banks will be fired if a bank taken over by the FDIC, the people running, if a bank is taken over by the FDIC, the people running that bank shouldn't work there anymore.
He doesn't talk about the stock that they sold of the defunct company right before the company was announced that it was defunct.
I mean, the five execs selling stock in the two months leading up to the collapse is an indication that they knew there was a collapse coming, which that deserves an investigation, in my opinion.
Joe Biden doesn't know what should happen with a bank.
all the management's gonna be fired and that the people running the bank
shouldn't work there anymore those are his words. Joe Biden doesn't know what
phil labonte
should happen with a bank. The president is in no position to make a call
about what should or should not happen with a bank. If you want to have
investigations or something fine but Joe Biden is in no position to be making
calls about a bank at all.
I don't trust Joe Biden's calls about basically anything.
The man barely has contact with reality.
So Joe Biden's opinion on banks and who should run a bank is the least interesting thing in the world.
ian crossland
This string of tweets that he wrote this under on Friday, the FDIC threat, obviously was not written by him.
unidentified
No.
ian crossland
It sounds like some economist using his... I mean, it's different than other tweets that he puts out, like, last week.
The whole, like, this time it's different.
Period.
This time.
You know, those crappy tweets he puts out?
phil labonte
He's so funny.
ian crossland
This is obviously some sort of economist explaining their procedure.
But they're saying they're going to fire the execs, the management.
I don't know.
What would be the ethical thing to do for this 10, 12, 13 million in stock that they all sold?
Like, they're the executives of the company.
They lost a lot of people a lot of money.
phil labonte
I don't know.
I'm not 100% sure.
I don't know who actually is being affected mostly, like who's really being negatively affected.
So I know that the SVB was mostly crypto companies and they funded a lot of startups and stuff
like that.
So I don't know that there's a lot of small investors that are small bankers, you know,
small whatever you call it, that they cater to.
So you know, I don't know exactly what should be done.
And I don't even know that we should be making decisions yet.
Because it just happened today.
You kind of want to see what the actual repercussions are going to be and how it's going to go through
ian crossland
The fog of war is the position, and they're moving so quickly in the fog of war, acting like they know what's happening, and people are just like, I don't know, so I can't say no.
I don't have any pushback right now because I don't have the facts, and people are scared, so they're moving quickly.
tim pool
I want to pull up this tweet here, and just really quickly point out that Someone removed one of the plugs from the cameras and it's not in the room.
So we're just like, like Phil's camera died, but they're all plugged in.
I'm like, wait, what?
And then we looked and it's just gone.
The plug was just stolen by somebody.
serge du preez
Cable's gone.
ian crossland
Is it a, uh, HDMI?
Oh, it's bad.
tim pool
No, no, no.
The power cable.
Like the plug for the camera is just gone.
unidentified
Yeah.
serge du preez
It's a little hammer headache, but it's okay.
tim pool
We figured it out because we got med skills.
But anyway, let's talk about the story here.
We got this from the Kobesi letter.
The two-year Treasury yield is now on track for one of its biggest two-day drops in history.
The yield is down over 100 basis points from its high last week.
Bond markets are moving quicker than what we saw in 2008.
Bonds think the system just collapsed.
I certainly hope not, but in the event that they do, I suppose the question is, what happens if the market actually does collapse and this assessment is correct?
If all of a sudden you wake up in the morning, your bank is telling you, hey, you can't take money out just yet, hey, we're not so sure what's gonna happen, or outright, this ripples through all these other banks.
I gotta tell you, I looked at a bunch of bank stocks, I looked at the stocks for some of the banks that we use, and they're all very, very, very down.
And that's kind of worrying.
So, uh, Drew, what happens?
drew miller
Investors and bank stocks need to be worried, which is largely wealthy people, you know, big funds.
Average citizens aren't going to lose from this.
And again, your deposits are insured.
tim pool
Well, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, Worse than 2008?
Then what does that mean for the average person in terms of their ability to get a job, their ability to find food, or what?
drew miller
Well, I think the 2008 threat and this threat to the average citizens and average banks are grossly exaggerated.
I mean, if you're a small bank, a normal bank, you're not affected by things going on in Wall Street.
You're not investing in derivatives or high-tech companies.
Your banks aren't going to fail because you don't have investments in that.
Your investments are in mortgages, traditional stuff.
tim pool
Signature Bank was real estate.
drew miller
Your banks will not fail.
Yeah, but what kind of real estate?
Commercial real estate?
Big, bold investments and bad bets?
So that the investors in that bank, they should lose their money, the bank should fail, and citizens shouldn't bail it out.
Because when they bail it out, now I'm being punished.
Everyone across the U.S.
gets punished when the U.S.
government steps in and bails someone out.
We will pay for that.
tim pool
You think the real risk to the Americans is if they do the bailouts, not if they ignore it?
drew miller
Correct.
tim pool
So wait, if they do the bailouts, then people are going to lose money?
drew miller
Yeah, because our debt keeps going up, inflation keeps going up, and sooner or later you've got to pay for that.
And it's going to hurt the economy.
It's been hurting us, you know, already.
We're likely to have a recession.
We've been in recession threat mode for a long time.
Why?
Because the federal government gave away trillions of dollars unnecessarily during COVID.
You cannot give money away.
Sooner or later you got to pay the price.
The price is we're going to go into recession.
And we're going to have horrible inflation.
We're paying the price.
So every time you bail out a big Silicon Valley bank or a Wall Street big firm, which you wouldn't do for a mid-size or small company or bank, whenever you bail them out, citizens everywhere else, not just in the U.S., but around the world, since we've got the dollar, they pay for that.
And it shouldn't happen.
tim pool
So then it sounds like, let's just let them fall.
They shouldn't fail.
I mean, Bannon was saying that on Friday.
You know, you're selling Matt Gaetz and Dan Bishop on this show.
Resist!
Do not let them convince you to bail these people out, you know.
But I wonder, I mean, if in 2008 they didn't bail out any banks, what do you think would have happened?
drew miller
Well, no one really knows, but I don't think it would have been a disaster.
It would have been a disaster for the Wall Street firms, but who cares?
I mean, if Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, you name all those firms that they went under, Who do they lend to?
Huge Fortune 500 companies who pay outlandish fees and they're not the only ones who can do investment banking.
There are investment banking firms, small ones, all over the U.S.
who can step in and take their place.
They should have had trillions of dollars of losses and derivatives.
Let them take their losses.
98% of Americans don't invest in derivatives.
They don't invest in these high-tech companies.
So we won't suffer.
tim pool
We have some comments here.
People are saying you're wrong.
There's a video of the FDIC saying they only have funds to cover around 4% of the losses and the risk is real.
Someone else said that the FDIC has only enough to insure about 1% of the deposits and this will be a push to get us into CBDC?
I don't know what that is.
ian crossland
Central Bank Digital Currency.
drew miller
Okay, well who's going to bail out FDIC?
That is something the government's there to bail them out.
So if we want to bail out the FDIC for the $250,000 deposits, that's okay.
I don't want to bail out for the investment beyond the $250,000.
That's the bigger bill we can't afford.
ian crossland
You know, one issue is bank consolidation.
In 2008, 465 banks failed.
A bunch of them, maybe all of them, were bought up.
It was like Wells Fargo.
We came out of that with like four big banks.
I could see another... Same with the Great Depression.
That was a big wealth consolidation.
You know, they bankrupt everyone, they buy up the assets.
phil labonte
It's always... Well, I mean...
I just want to push back a little bit on the idea that they bankrupt.
It's not intentional.
It's not like there are people pulling the strings that are trying to bankrupt other people so they can buy up the assets, or at least not all the time.
I know that has happened in history, but still.
The consolidation happens because if you have a lot of money and everybody loses money, you still have a lot of money, so there's a bunch of opportunities to buy stuff up.
That's what happens any time there's any kind of financial crisis or whatever.
Rich people get richer because they have funds to capitalize on the marginal businesses going under.
tim pool
Let me ask you guys a question though.
So, Tim Katz Corporation has more than $250,000, and that's the only amount that's insured.
What if our bank went under?
Everybody here would be out of a job.
How would people here feel about that?
ian crossland
You gotta be able to make money.
If we're not making money, we deserve to fail.
If we're not in the black, we deserve to fail.
That's not what I'm saying.
tim pool
Because if our banks go to zero... Ian, Ian, Ian, stop, stop.
If the bank froze our money right now, there would be no paychecks for any one of the employees.
The company, of course, makes money.
But the money in the bank that we need to pay the employees until revenue comes in, because it comes in, we don't just have money.
Our customers, our members, they will, you know, pay 10 bucks.
Advertisers will pay a monthly thing or once a month.
For those three to four weeks, if we have no money, what happens?
We just tell all of our employees, don't worry about it, we tell our utilities?
So this is the question, when I'm looking at these tweets about people lining up outside of Silicon Valley Bank, and you show up one day, I want people to think about this, you show up to your bank, because you're a regular working class person, and they're like, you have no money.
You say, how do I pay my rent?
You're a small business who maybe isn't even one of these big woke tech companies or whatever, and you've got a million bucks, and you need, and you're a business that, you know, you've got a decent profit margin, let's say you're doing 10%, 20% per month, you spend $500,000, you make, say, $600,000, that money goes into emergency rainy day funds, potential investments, then you have your employees that are the bulk of those costs, and then one day, your paychecks bounce.
The bank says there's no funds.
What do you do?
ian crossland
You should have five bank accounts first, so you have 1.25 million insured by FDIC.
tim pool
Per the size of your bank, you should probably have a ton of bank accounts.
unidentified
Five.
ian crossland
The five number's great.
unidentified
No, no, no.
tim pool
Five's not good enough if you're Facebook.
ian crossland
No, five's not good enough if you're Facebook.
But for small businesses, you should have multiple bank accounts.
A lot of people having issues, couldn't get their money out because they didn't have anywhere else to put it.
So they're like mad dashed to open a second bank account, like have multiple business accounts.
Secondly, I think, yeah, if your company can't pay the people, the people aren't going to get paid.
That's the deal.
It's like, get ready to live without money for four months or three months or two weeks or whatever.
tim pool
I want to say some words just before I make the statement.
Max Keiser and Stacey Herbert because I was thinking today we were talking if we had a part of our balance sheet in Bitcoin Bitcoin went up and Bitcoin has a different stability and a lot of companies transferred some of their balance sheet into Bitcoin.
And so if we were like, we use primarily USD for all our liquid transactions, but then we store some of the value in Bitcoin and actually pay some employees in Bitcoin.
All those employees, that money they get in Bitcoin is worth substantially more right now than it would have been when they received it.
So I'm thinking like, I don't know if the intention with all this collapse is to push us into, like that person was saying, central bank digital currencies or something like that, but it certainly has me looking at my crypto being like, it's up.
ian crossland
It does have the intention of bank consolidation, centralization of currency, and then I think they're going to want to try and track it.
phil labonte
Well, I mean, if you use a CBDC, they automatically can track it.
Yeah.
tim pool
Everything you do.
phil labonte
Any digital currency like that, it's automatically tracked.
They can turn your money off.
They can tell you what you are and are not allowed to buy.
Your money is completely programmable.
ian crossland
But if that's the direction of the water flow, then maybe we should... No.
phil labonte
No.
ian crossland
Crypto?
I mean, don't ignore it.
phil labonte
Not crypto.
No.
Crypto is one thing, Bitcoin is different, and a CBDC is a third.
ian crossland
Yeah, CBDC doesn't have to be on a blockchain.
tim pool
I just want to point out the rumors going around, and I don't know if this is true, is that Harry and Meghan had their money in SVB.
ian crossland
I heard that.
tim pool
And I don't know if that's true, but everyone's laughing, being like all their money's gone or whatever.
Either way, It's probably a scary weekend because even with Joe Biden coming out being like, don't worry, we're going to pay everybody to get access to their deposits or whatever.
How long do you have to wait and where is the money?
drew miller
Again, the message should be, you don't have to worry if you've got less than $250,000.
There's no need to do a run on the bank.
That should be the message.
The message shouldn't be, no matter how much money you've invested or how badly the government will bail you out.
That we cannot afford to do.
tim pool
All that they do is tell these big banks, keep playing with the money like jerks.
Because they're too big to fail.
They say, and it's not coming from the taxpayer, but here's what Joe Biden's not telling you.
The money paid to the FDIC, the premiums paid for FDIC insurance is intended for you, the little guy.
Not for the millionaires and the billionaires.
And now what they're saying is your rainy day fund is being given to the millionaires and the billionaires.
Sound like Bernie Sanders over here!
unidentified
The millionaires and the billionaires are getting your FDIC money!
ian crossland
From Five Cent Knuckle.
Historically, the FDIC pays insured deposits within a few days after a bank closes, usually the next business day.
And what they'll do is they'll open a new account at another insured bank and then send you the money that way.
Someone mentioned that it might take a couple months earlier, but I think they move pretty quick, hopefully.
If that's true, then yeah, I think the small guy doesn't have anything to worry about.
tim pool
Well, here's a short post from Amy Curtis on Twitter that I saw.
It said, here's why the government is going to bail out SBV, but won't send disaster aid to Ohio.
And you can see an image showing California as very blue.
Well, you can't really see it because the way it's cropped on screen.
There you go.
And then you have this image, which is Ohio being like all red and East Palestine being, you know, over here in the eastern Ohio.
So a lot of this does absolutely feel like a combination of elitism and partisanship.
The fact that Joe Biden got up at nine in the morning, first thing, and said, your money is safe.
But when a train exploded, spraying toxic chemicals, they burn and toxic chemicals are everywhere.
It's getting in the water.
Fish are dying.
The governor says a plume of chemicals is flowing down the river into West Virginia, nowhere to be found.
It tells you who butters their bread, who they're serving, and who they're concerned about.
ian crossland
Of course.
tim pool
When I look at things like this, and then we had that Jane Fonda thing, you guys see the Jane Fonda thing last week?
phil labonte
Hanoi Jane talking.
tim pool
She said on The View, She was asked, we have to fight for pro, you know, for pro-choice, whatever.
And then Joy Behar was like, well, short of protesting and voting, what do we do?
And she said, murder.
And then someone was like, wait, wait, what are you saying?
She goes, murder.
And then I went, ha ha, no, she's joking.
So the way I see it is, all signs are indicative of systemic collapse, whether the bond market is correct or not in the previous segment, that it's going to collapse, whether the banking thing, two of the biggest collapse in history happening back to back.
And they're seeming, like one's in California, one's in New York.
Are they related?
All I gotta tell you is hyperpolarization, hyperinflation, maybe not hyperinflation, but inflation's ridiculously high, now banking collapses, and people on TV saying psychotic extremist things.
Drew, you're the expert, I guess, or you're the one selling a product.
Do you think we're on the verge of some kind of major collapse?
And should people, I don't want to say be worried, but should they be prepared?
drew miller
I think a recession is likely.
I don't think a banking collapse is coming.
tim pool
But what about, I mean beyond that, I mean, when you're looking at the weaponization of government, when you're looking at people on TV calling for murder, whether to joke or not, we're seeing violence in the streets, we're seeing 150 far leftists storm a government facility in Georgia and burn it up, then you've got the January 6th stuff where they're saying the FBI was destroying evidence.
It doesn't feel like this system, whether it's financial or political, exists anymore.
It seems more like a smoldering pit.
drew miller
Well, we track 50, we call them threats or trigger events that could lead to a collapse, but you're only talking about one of them, and that's, you know, something like a financial collapse or something that really triggers a civil war.
If there's a banking collapse, that doesn't mean there's loss of law and order.
But if people start doing civil unrest and law enforcement goes, then you've got a collapse where you worry about the things we worry about, which is people going out looting, stealing, killing, and it's not safe to live here.
I mean, that's just one of 50 events.
We have more things to worry about than that, I think, that are more likely to get us.
tim pool
Like what?
What have you got?
drew miller
Like avian flu is the one that I'm very concerned about right now.
Our electric grid is probably my number two biggest concern.
The fragility of that.
Electric grid?
I think that's likely to kill us off before, you know, collapse from a banking collapse.
tim pool
I've got a bunch of stuff on the bird floor, but let's talk about the electric grid first.
What about the grid has you worried about?
drew miller
It's been vulnerable and we've known about it for decades and the government has done nothing to fix it.
It's vulnerable not just from the physical, you know, terrorist attacks you've heard about in recent months, it's vulnerable from natural causes.
Solar flares, electromagnetic pulse from a solar flare can take down the grid.
It's done it before.
tim pool
The reason why I said we'll talk about this one first is because you've heard the stories that are going around where extremists are attacking substations.
drew miller
It's not the first time.
They did an attack on the Metcalf grid, you know, a decade almost ago and we knew about it and it was a professional kind of a test run.
This is well done.
Look up the Metcalf attack on the grid.
It was done years ago.
We investigated it.
It was a professional group that did it.
It was like a dress rehearsal.
I don't know if Russia or China or who was behind it.
But they did a professional attack on the grid years ago in 2013.
This is old stuff, just like the threat of EMP.
We've known about it for decades.
tim pool
Whoa, check this out.
Let me read this.
On the morning of April 16, 2013, a team of gunmen using rifles opened fire on the Metcalf transmission substation, severely damaging 17 Transformers.
And they said it was sophisticated.
And what was the reason for them doing it?
drew miller
It was a test to see if they could take it down.
And the thing is, you don't have to take down, you know, there's thousands of these stations, but there's critical nodes.
And if you take down, you know, 10 or 12 critical nodes, you can take the whole grid down.
And the worst thing is, without getting into too much details, you need to watch a documentary.
Grid Down, Power Up explains this a hundred times better than what I'm going to do in the next 30 seconds.
You do a coordinated attack on the grid.
It could be a cyber attack.
It could be solar flares.
If there's a surge in the grid, it destroys these transformers, these big giant devices, and it takes you months to replace a few of them.
If a lot of them are destroyed, the electric grid is down for a year under good conditions or more.
And we've known about this, and there's five different ways this could happen.
Cyber attack, physical attack, solar flares, electromagnetic pulse.
I'm forgetting the fifth.
Again, watch this documentary, Grid Down, Power Up.
Our grid is highly vulnerable.
It's our Achilles heel.
If North Korea wants to destroy the United States, they can do it.
They got an ICBM that can reach here.
They do not need a lot of nuclear weapons.
They don't need accuracy at all.
Well, one or two high in the atmosphere over the U.S.
And you destroy our electric system.
The electric magnetic pulse destroys our system for over a year.
tim pool
For the whole country?
drew miller
For the whole country.
For most of the United States.
tim pool
North Korea has weapons that can do that.
drew miller
Yep, they're low yield.
See, their nuclear weapons have all kinds of effects.
Thermal radiation, alpha radiation, beta.
They're optimized to do maximum EMP yield.
The Russians work with them to do that.
And this has been published.
Open source, it was intelligence agencies, but they published open source saying that the Russians helped North Korea develop their nuclear weapons for maximum EMP effect.
Because North Korea is never going to build, you know, a first-strike capability on our huge nuclear system.
But they only need one or two inaccurate, high-in-the-atmosphere explosions over the U.S., and the grid is down for over a year.
And in that time, according to a congressional study, you know, led by a former CIA director, a former Navy Admiral, Their estimate was that when this happens, you could lose 90% of the U.S.
population.
There's no economic production.
There's no gas flowing.
There is no municipal water systems.
You'll have no water in this house.
tim pool
We will.
drew miller
No, you won't.
tim pool
Yeah, we will.
drew miller
You're on a municipal water system.
tim pool
No, we're not.
drew miller
Okay, you may.
tim pool
I'm sorry, I thought you were still in the city here.
We are not.
Are you kidding?
drew miller
I mean, 90% of Americans are in cities or suburbs that'll have no municipal water system.
And you'll die in that 90 years, either from starving to death or from people going out stealing for food and marijuana.
tim pool
Everybody who comes here, they're like, I had to drive up a strange winding mountain road to get here.
We're elevated several hundred feet, like we're up a mountain and we have well water and two local water sources.
Now, for the new place we're setting up, we actually have a ton of backup power, and here we have miniature solar here.
So we have this big, massive battery, and then we have a bunch of really small batteries that are portable, and then they have solar panels that you actually have to physically lay out and position properly.
Not easy to do.
At the new property we're setting up, we have installed professional solar with a ridiculous amount of backup batteries.
So the amount of power generated from the sun exceeds the amount that the batteries drain.
So as long as you're operating through the day, only at night does it power down, but then it immediately goes back to full as soon as the sun comes up.
Not perfect.
Absolutely not perfect.
I'd probably be comfortable if I use one of the streams to create a water wheel power generator of some source or just a bike, some kind of way to get power, because you are half correct.
We wouldn't lose water because we're not on municipal water, but we need electricity for our pump.
So, otherwise, we're manually pumping water.
But, worst case scenario is we do what they did in the olden days, and we either carry bales of water up the hill, which we can do, or we build a pump, or dig a well, or something.
I think, uh, that me and the people here, we've been reading so much about this stuff non-stop for the past three or four years, five years, heck, ten years, that, uh, Look, we've been saying on this show, get chickens.
Get some small goats, some, what, the Nigerian dwarf goats or whatever?
Get something.
Get away from the cities.
I've had a lot of people imagine saying they moved out of the city, they're on well water, they're more sustainable, they've got chickens.
Hey, I'll tell you what.
If these people who are attacking the power substations succeed, because we've been seeing reports of it all over the country, or North Korea fires an EMP, what you're saying makes the most sense.
You want to win a war?
You don't need to wipe a city out with massive destructive force.
That's a waste of energy.
That's a lack of strategy.
One EMP disables your opponent, and then you've won.
So what will the people in the cities do?
Yeah, you're right.
They're going to have no water.
How many days until they start eating each other and drinking each other's blood?
drew miller
And again, the marauder threat is something you've got to be prepared for, because if you can't defend your preparations and your facilities, the people who aren't prepared, which is the vast majority, will come and take your supplies and your solar systems and all that.
tim pool
That's right.
drew miller
But I'm just mentioning a couple threats.
We actually track 50 of them.
And I'm not sure which one is the worst, but the one that right now is sounding the most alarm bells for us is H5N1 avian flu, because it mutated last year.
It's not the same virus.
And it's wrong to call it bird flu.
It's now bird and mammal flu.
That virus is mutating and spreading amongst mammal populations, minks, sea lions, lots of different mammal populations.
tim pool
Let me pull up this story.
We have this from CNN World.
Explosion of sea lion deaths in Peru amid deadly bird flu outbreak.
So now, what are they saying?
Thousands of sea lions in Peru have died amid an outbreak of bird flu.
Bird flu is not only passing to mammals, it's passing into many other mammals.
This is a 60% mortality rate.
I'm sure the most conspiracy-minded individuals are thinking that it was all intentional, but I've got to say, guys, if you think that they took bird flu and then did gain-of-function research to make it transmissible among mammals, I have to say, you're completely right.
From science.org, controversial experiments that could make bird flu more risky poised to resume.
Two gain-of-function projects halted more than four years ago have passed new U.S.
review processes.
So, in February of 2019, and we have mentioned this before, they began working on H5N1 to make it transmissible among mammals.
Now, why would you go and do that?
And now it is bouncing around mammals, and it does have a 60% mortality rate.
drew miller
That's correct.
They actually did it the first time back in 2011.
They did it, and for a while they tried to stop publishing it, but they ultimately ended up letting them publish.
And I'll explain why they do it.
Why the government does that.
I just don't want your bloggers to take my head off for defending them, but this is why the government says... You're going to take your head off no matter what.
unidentified
I know.
drew miller
This is why the government does gain-of-function research.
They do it with this reasoning.
Hey, hey!
Eventually, H5N1 will mutate to become human-to-human transmissible.
It'll happen naturally.
And biologists have said that and they're right.
It happens all the time.
Virus is always mutating.
So basically what we're going to do is we're going to speed it up in the lab.
We're going to develop a human-to-human contagious or mammal-to-mammal contagious version.
Now once we've got this in the lab, we'll keep it in the lab and we'll develop vaccines.
So when the natural happens, we'll prepare it.
That's their argument for doing it.
But the problem here is, back in 2011, I don't care if they do that at Fort Detrick, which, by the way, isn't too far from you.
You know, if the Army's doing biological research for defensive reasons, I'm for that.
But when they released it and published how you do it, so that anyone from Al-Qaeda to North Korea to Syria, you name it, I could do it.
I've got the knowledge.
It's a low-tech way to do it.
And you publish results.
Now you've just increased our odds of any nutcase doing it and then releasing it.
So it's happening naturally, but the threat is not low.
That's what I've been arguing here.
The threat is not low because a natural mutation may occur.
The threat is high because it has mutated.
It is now spreading amongst mammals.
It started with minks.
Last year, sea lions, other things may be spreading now, but they're not the only threat.
You could deliberately do it in the lab.
You could deliberately do it a low-tech way in the basement.
I'm saying bad guys could be doing it now, too, because we've published how to do it.
It's very well known.
So to me, it's inevitable.
Biologists have used that word in congressional testimony.
warning Congress, we must be ready for avian flu, H5N1, to be spreading amongst humans.
They've been warning Congress for a decade now. Has anything been done? Not a damn thing.
tim pool
What can they do?
drew miller
Just like that, there's a lot of things they can do. One thing they can do, the first thing is just
warn people. Don't have the CDC saying, oh, it's low risk.
It's not low risk.
All kinds of medical groups are saying, watch out, it's coming.
The probability of a pandemic has gone up, but the CDC, Center for Disease Control, keeps saying it's low and it's not.
and the CDC is not giving an honest warning about it.
The threat is up a lot because it's now mutated and it's now spreading amongst mammal populations,
which means as that virus mutates, it's far more likely when it's mutating
amongst sea lions or ferrets or mink to now become human-to-human transmissible.
So the risk is up.
It is not still low risk like they've been saying.
Can you calculate that risk?
No, you can't.
You can't put a number to it, but that's why the CDC absolutely cannot say it's low risk.
It's an unknown risk.
It could be very high probability.
It could be 50% it's gonna happen this year, 75%, CDC cannot know that.
So why are they announcing it's low risk to humans when you cannot know that risk?
tim pool
Without going into great detail, let me just say I think the people who watch this show, I think myself personally, I'm pretty sure the other people in the room, have very little faith in the CDC for a variety of reasons.
ian crossland
Yeah, the CDC wants to prevent panic, one, which is why they'll say don't worry about it.
Secondly, when it comes to COVID, the way they handle COVID, they did not talk about prophylactic measures.
They never really talked about prevention.
They talked about how to deal with it once it already hits.
I don't want to inject the thing or do the thing.
Where's the vitamin D?
tim pool
I don't want to deviate from the bird flu subject.
ian crossland
Well, this is why I think we haven't heard about how to prevent and prepare for how to heal from this stuff before it gets you.
Because if the methodology is let's heal it once it strikes.
tim pool
I think the CDC is completely inept or malicious.
And they're incapable of properly advising.
It was so bad that Steven Crowder got multiple strikes.
And it's not just them.
It's, you know, the big tech industry.
Steven Crowder got, I think, two strikes on YouTube for talking about what the CDC was saying.
That's how insane the whole thing is.
So let me just say about all of this, I don't think anyone is going to give us an honest assessment of what this is and what might happen, but I will say, I do believe, based on what we've already seen, Well, I should say this.
The news has reported the gain-of-function research to make bird flu transmissible among mammals happened a decade ago.
And they kept doing it!
And now that the Department of Energy and the FBI are saying, lab leak?
How hard would it be for this to leak from a lab?
Accidents happen.
Or worse still, as you mentioned, bad guys can do it very easily.
Sure.
And bad guys can take it out of a lab very easily.
They should not be doing these things.
drew miller
We've been warning people, our members, we've been putting on our newsletter, you need to be prepared because there's so many ways this could happen.
If I were Putin, you know, a ruthless guy, not doing well in the Ukraine war, and the U.S.
and West European providing so much support, If he releases, clandestinely so you can't even punish him for it, he releases a virus like avian flu, human-human transmissible over here, we are not going to be supporting Ukraine.
We're going to be struggling to survive, losing tens, perhaps hundreds of millions of people over here.
We're not helping Ukraine.
He now has a free reign there.
And if he's developed the virus, he may already have the vaccine developed, so he can give it to Russian people he wants to survive.
And for the rest of the world, they suffer the worst pandemic, the worst disaster in human history.
ian crossland
What are some prophylactic measures that people can take to protect themselves from H5?
There are none.
drew miller
Masks aren't going to work.
The only thing you can do is you have to stay away from people until the virus plays out.
Now here's, this is the bad news, good news.
The good news is when you have a virus this lethal, It's going to kill people, 60% lethal, it's going to kill people so massively, people are going to immediately isolate for long periods of time and the virus will die out fairly quickly.
The virus is, it's not good for a virus to have super high lethality because you end up killing off your virus.
You can't survive.
Well, if it's low-level like COVID or flu, you keep spreading it all the time.
This you will not.
You will have to be isolated for at least months, perhaps over a year.
So you've got to have food and the ability to defend your food, which is the other reason why there's no warning of this coming out.
If you warn about a collapse, you have to warn about marauder threats.
It happened in Katrina.
It's certainly going to happen if the grid is down and there's no food production.
It's going to happen to people.
You've got to have guns!
And the government is not going to tell people, hey, you need to have a lot of guns, and by the way, assault rifles and those high capacity magazines, that's what you need.
unidentified
well and defend against marauders and i don't don't uh...
tim pool
misinterpret he said assault rifle high-capacity magazines were talking
fully automatic select fire with a hundred round drums or something and he
ian crossland
said yeah was with an ass so multiple as i'm more than what you want
tim pool
to mention something like a standard semi-auto standard capacity we're talking
about a air fifteen with thirty round magazines
unidentified
that's not what he said he said well you can even by those in colorado
drew miller
Those are illegal clips in Colorado.
ian crossland
So you buy them in Nebraska or elsewhere and bring them in.
tim pool
I think what he was saying is like a .50 BMG, you know, mounted butterfly trigger on top of a tower that was built on your property.
phil labonte
Everybody needs a Toyota with a .50 caliber.
tim pool
Let me know what you think about this.
I was thinking auto defense turrets.
You know, we'll build big towers, and then we'll have on them just sentry turrets that, you know, sweep left and right, and then at a certain time, they will go into, you know, full defense mode, and if you, uh, you know, bring it, you know.
drew miller
I wouldn't recommend that.
I'd just use, you know, people with weapons is the low-cost, smart way to do that.
But you need a lot of people to defend yourself in a collapse, and you need assault rifles and high-capacity clips, because there could be marauder groups that have 50, 100 people in them.
We got 2 million Americans in jail.
If the electric grid goes down, are you going to keep 2 million people in jail?
tim pool
They're going to come out.
They're not.
They're going to stay, and they're going to use the prisons as fortresses.
drew miller
They need food.
There's not enough food to keep them going.
They're going to have to go out and get it.
tim pool
And they're going to send out scouting parties who come back to the prisons because the prisons are fortified and armed, and you're not breaking in, and they can control.
No one's raiding a prison.
The prisons will be raiding your town.
ian crossland
Realistically, the people will be locked in their cells and they'll be left to starve.
phil labonte
No, because when the power goes out, the cells open.
That's a horrible manufacturing error if they can't leave the doors locked.
Well, what happens if the power goes off and there's no one there?
You'll have people dying in their cells.
unidentified
Plus you have a million gang members who are already out.
tim pool
Yes, their door is locked.
phil labonte
I thought they automatically opened it.
tim pool
But it doesn't matter when the system breaks.
Someone's going to go in from the outside and they're going to have friends and family who are in prison and they are going to take that whole place over and it is a fortress.
phil labonte
I doubt it.
And it's also the most aggressive people in society.
ian crossland
I feel like they'll all be dead within a week in a situation like that.
tim pool
Why would they be dead?
ian crossland
Because the doors lock and they all just starve.
All the guards leave.
tim pool
You're acting like people in jail have no family.
ian crossland
How are they going to get in the building?
tim pool
They're going to drive their truck a hundred miles an hour and slam into a wall, smashing it.
ian crossland
It's concrete.
It's like eight feet wide concrete layers.
tim pool
Prisons have fences.
And there's going to be prison guards who are going to be like, here's the key, and they're going to run and leave.
ian crossland
I think all the guards would bail.
drew miller
Of these two million people in jail, about a million were in there for, you know, drug charges.
They're not really that bad of people.
So no, they're not going to be killed off or let there.
They're going to get out and they're completely unprepared.
Maybe they'll base out of the prison, but they have no preparations.
So they're going to have to be marauders.
A million people in gangs are already marauders.
ian crossland
But you're indicating why we would lock them in the cell and leave them there to die, because they would otherwise turn into marauders.
drew miller
I'm just trying to say there's millions of Americans who are going to be marauders.
At a minimum, you've got two million in prison and a million gang members, but normal people When they're told, you know, stay at home.
All government can tell you to do in a collapse is go home, stay home.
Well, for most people that's a death sentence.
So after you start starving to death, are you going to stay at home and quietly, politely die?
Are you going to go out and steal food to keep your family alive?
You're going to go steal.
tim pool
I'm saying we're going to go outside one day and there's going to be some dude with suspenders and a flannel shirt and a handlebar mustache, and we're going to hear the chickens squawking, and we're going to walk outside with a, you know, lever action rifle and be like, hey!
And there's going to be some New York hipster being like, I'm so hungry!
And he's going to try and run away with the chicken.
phil labonte
You know, you get to that point, honestly, it's, I mean, it gets really, it's, the ugliness The level of ugliness that happens with the type of scenario that we're talking about, we can't really actually articulate it properly on YouTube, because you'll get booted.
Like, someone coming on your- if you've got chickens, and there's someone messing around with your chickens, and you're three months into a global collapse, shoot on sight!
Always dead, like, drop them!
tim pool
Watch the season finale of The Last of Us from last night if you really want to understand what it means.
phil labonte
Watch a video from Syria.
tim pool
I understand The Last of Us is fictional, but if you want to understand what will happen when the collapse happens, There are no good guys.
I don't want to spoil it because it literally just came out last night and people are gonna be like don't spoil it but
Watch what the good guys do there are no good guys. That's the point. Yeah, you will be like my god
Because when it comes to protecting those yourself and those you care about the guy who comes onto your property
for chickens He's he's he's got he he pulls up in his truck and he's got
a starving 10 year old daughter and he says don't worry, honey
I'm getting you food And then him and his brother and his son are like, we have to do this or we die.
And then they sneak around your property and then you're in your house going, I see people outside with guns.
Don't worry, honey, I'm gonna protect us.
And then you kill each other.
There's no good guys, there's no bad guys there.
I'm not going to die, and if I have to kill you to do it, that's what these people are thinking.
phil labonte
Look, you can tell the serious people by the ones that have, like, people impaled on spikes in their yard.
Like, that's, it gets real, real brutal, real, real fast.
tim pool
Have you seen, uh, I think, what is it, uh, either it's, I think this was in Yellowstone, actually.
In Yellowstone, it might have been a flashback, or it might have been 1883.
I think it was Yellowstone, they catch cattle thieves, and he kills them, and then one guy who's mortally injured, he puts a rope around his neck, and then pulls him, hoists him up to hang him, and they write in blood, cattle thieves.
It was like, anybody who sees this knows what happens.
It's crazy to think that back in the day, they would kill a group of men, Mercilessly, like, and brutally, and then leave their rotting corpses for everyone to see, for taking cattle.
Because taking the cattle meant you die in the winter.
So they were like, nope, no games.
Yep, no games.
That's right.
ian crossland
You were a retired colonel?
drew miller
Yes.
ian crossland
So you've seen, I mean, I don't know, would you have experienced battle?
unidentified
Did you?
drew miller
I've been to Iraq.
I mean, I'm Air Force, so not at the pointy end of the spear, more on the receiving ends of mortar rounds and stuff.
But, you know, you don't have to go to Iraq.
You could see it in Katrina.
You know, you could see how people panicked and would steal and were looting and were taking advantage of stuff.
And, again, I'm not just—I wouldn't blame someone.
If they're starving to death trying to protect their family or keep them alive, they're going to go out and steal and try to survive.
So you have to deal with the marauder threat.
And the probability of collapse is going up.
Things like H5N1, our vulnerable electric system, and then new technologies.
I mean, Elon Musk warns about artificial intelligence about every other week or two.
You know, he provides you a warning on that.
There are a lot of new technologies in our economy with its fragileness to cyber attack.
There's so many ways.
As I said, we track 50 different trigger events, any one of which could lead to a collapse.
Or it could be nothing.
It could be something like, you know, in the United Kingdom in 2011, in London one night, there's some altercation started with police.
There was violence.
It spread all over London.
And the next day they woke up and they said, what in the hell was that?
Thank God it's over.
And then the next night it started again in London and it spread all over the United Kingdom, all the major cities.
People were killed defending their businesses.
It was a collapse going on, loss of law and order, widespread, and there was no trigger event.
So after the next election, Ray Dalio, you know, perhaps one of the smartest men alive in the U.S.
today, the founder, CEO of Bridgewater, the most biggest, most successful hedge fund, He's estimated we've got a 30% of civil war, civil unrest, massive violence after our next presidential election because we are so divided and so split that any possible issue in that election or people just not wanting to accept the result, you could have violence break out and it can spiral out of control.
phil labonte
I know this is something that viewers of the show hear all the time, but really, you need to purchase firearms, ammunition, and get training.
You need to know how to use firearms and ammunition, how to load magazines.
How to clear stoppages, malfunctions, and stuff like that.
When you go to a firearms class, they're not teaching you safety stuff.
The safety stuff is very, very basic.
You go over that, and it only takes a little while.
They're teaching you how to fix your gun if there's a problem when you're in a gunfight.
And people should learn how to do that.
tim pool
Not just that, when the if slash when a collapse happens, people from the cities Many of them will lose their thumbs.
And I'm talking like, I have to imagine, I mean, a massive percentage of them.
Because I can't tell you how many times I've seen people hold a gun wrong.
And it's scary.
When you go to a range and someone's giving instruction and the first thing someone does is pick up the gun and put their hand over the- Yeah.
unidentified
Yeah.
tim pool
And they stop.
Never do that again.
I've seen people actually get ready to shoot after being told not to do it and still put their hand over the back of the gun.
Like, do you want to have your thumb get ripped off?
You were told not to do that.
I have seen people, I mean, there's viral videos of this, where a guy's in a range, you can look the video up, and then he's like, he shoots and then he takes the gun and then he like waves it around and they tackle him.
These people don't get it.
It's like, you can, you need to have basic understanding of this stuff, but some people just don't get it.
It's gonna get bad.
I have to imagine New York City is gonna be the last place on the planet anyone's gonna want to be if the system does collapse.
drew miller
Well, they won't stay there.
They'll leave and they'll end up going to the areas all around New York City if they can get out.
tim pool
I don't know if you can call it civil war, but it will be, if a collapse happens in the first three days, the entire New York metro will be riots, ransacking, shootings, murders.
I think a lot of people will be trapped in their houses.
And then after a half a day when they're desperately thirsty and there's no water, one person's going to be like, we need to find water, man.
There ain't going to be any water anywhere.
So they're going to go outside and then someone's going to walk up, shoot them and take whatever they can.
ian crossland
Or they'll just get hit by a sniper.
Like they'll walk outside and bang and they'll be down.
After three days of fortification in a chaos situation, people are waiting, watching.
Maybe they'll walk up to you because they don't want to expose their body to other sniper fire.
Like it's going to be about hiding in buildings and shooting out windows and No, because why would you stand outside?
phil labonte
Why would you shoot someone?
Why would you sit in a building just to shoot people for like, if you can't go out there and like, collect their stuff?
What's the point of shooting them?
You're going to expose yourself because you're going to make a lot of noise.
You're going to draw attention to yourself.
ian crossland
I guess you'd wait and see if they had anything on them.
tim pool
You wouldn't waste ammo.
But if someone goes outside to look for stuff, likely someone will rob them to try and go raid there.
Or more importantly, you'll lock your door in your apartment and be like, we can't go outside.
And then all of a sudden, you hear bangs.
And then you're like, what's happening?
And then you hear a loud bang.
The first- the first bang was the door being kicked open.
The second bang was the person who lived there being killed as the people ransacked to steal their Chef Boyardee
because they're not gonna die.
And there are people in cities who have guns.
And the people in cities who have guns are the people who don't follow the law.
ian crossland
I don't even know how to talk about...
...what- how people in a city- You need to get out of a city.
drew miller
Even a big suburban area, you won't survive a long collapse there.
You gotta get out.
You have no water, you can't raise food, and there's just too many bad people around.
You need to get out.
tim pool
Yep, you're in trouble.
phil labonte
If the power grid goes down, like I said, it's something around 10% of the population will survive after a year.
Because, I mean, a bunch of people that are, you know, a significant portion of the population is going to die just because they don't get the medication that they need.
Diabetes, you're gone.
If you have any kind of heart medication, whatever, you're gone.
drew miller
And government regulations prevent us from stockpiling that kind of stuff.
The government is the biggest barrier to preparation, all their regulations and rules.
They're outlawing wood stoves.
Wood stoves is our main industry choice.
Yes, we got solar, but if we're gonna heat and we're gonna cook meals, we need wood stoves.
tim pool
We got wood stoves.
drew miller
They're outlawed in a lot of areas.
ian crossland
You can make one with a tin can.
drew miller
Not a really good one and you want a lot of efficiency and capacity one.
tim pool
I made the point a few months ago that one of the benefits we have as a civilized society is the, I would just say, passive knowledge.
That is, we know Smelting ore is a thing.
We don't really know how to do it.
I mean, I don't.
But just the knowledge of its existence means that in the event of a collapse, we could eventually start trying to work out how this thing had been done.
Whereas thousands of years ago, before the discovery of Well, that's the good side.
The bad side is when the grid's down and you're back to the 1800s, most Americans can't survive in the 1800s.
drew miller
That's the good side.
The bad side is when the grid's down and you're back to the 1800s, most Americans can't survive
in the 1800s.
They don't have the skills to do it.
tim pool
My point is, I think, so I made this point and then all of a sudden a bunch of like weird
left-wing channels were like, Tim Pool thinks he can blacksmith, and I was like, my point
was that I can't.
My point was that none of us can.
My point is that something is so basic, as taking a rock, heating it up, and making metals, that's been done for thousands of years, the average person has no comprehension of.
We know it exists, so we can maybe after a few years figure it out.
But my point is like, I think the people who watch this show, The people who are aware of this already are likely the people who would survive.
Likely.
Not everybody.
We're talking about 10% of the population, and when the power goes out, I'm willing to bet that it's 95% of people who watch shows like this.
drew miller
Well, you gotta have a lot of people to do this.
If you're gonna survive in a remote area with marauders around, you have to have a lot of guards on duty at once.
And I don't mean two guards, that's not a lot of guards.
If you've got, you know, 30 people and you're hiding out in some rural area, and you got two guards on duty at night, that means the two of us can take you out.
Because all we do is we watch you clandestinely.
We figure out you got two guards.
We know where you are.
We set up our shots.
2.30 or 3 in the morning on the walkie-talkies.
You got your guy?
Yep, I'm ready.
unidentified
5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
drew miller
We shoot at the same time.
Your two guards are now dead.
Did someone inside here or gunshot?
They might have, but 2.30 in the morning, they wake up, they heard a noise.
Do they hear anything else now?
It's completely quiet.
They go back to bed.
So the other 28 people are sleeping inside.
Two of us go in.
If you're lucky, we just steal stuff.
If you're not lucky, these marauders now kill you while you're sleeping.
You need a lot of guards.
You need a lot of discipline and system.
That's why Fort Hood Ranch is set up to have a lot of guards on duty.
A lot, everyone, all our members have weapons.
And we can defend ourselves.
But a typical person, he says, oh, I'm going to build a little house somewhere and my family will come and we'll survive.
You might survive the first month or two, but after the easy targets are gone and marauders are going elsewhere and everyone's left New York City and they're all out in the rural areas looking for food, they'll get you.
tim pool
So I was this past weekend hanging out at the casino, and the conversation of The Last of Us comes up, the TV show.
And this one guy, it was one of the funniest things ever.
So someone, the issue of Mario Bros.
comes up, because a guy has a little Mario Bros.
toy.
And then I mention that the Mushroom Kingdom people, like Toad, are cordyceps-infected humans, because the fungus is growing out of their head, it's a joke.
And then some guy's like, hey, have you seen The Last of Us?
That show's really great.
And I was like, yeah, I actually really enjoy it.
And then he looks around the table and goes, except for that one episode.
And then everyone starts going like, yup.
And see, the thing is, you're not allowed to talk politics when you're at the casino at the tables because they don't want any animosity.
But there's an episode where there's a lot of gay sex in it.
And so, but everyone immediately starts talking about it.
Now, the reason I bring it up in this context is the guy then says, I don't understand why movies and shows keep doing this stuff.
To me, it was actually astounding to hear because I've been talking about it for 10 years, why we're seeing more and more of this.
The reason I bring it up is not to rehash any kind of wokeness, but to point out regular people have no idea what the is going on at all.
And I don't blame the guy.
He's just some dude who probably works his job.
Then he goes to watch his TV shows with the wife.
Hangs out on the weekend at the casino and is confused as to why he's seeing gay sex in a TV show.
Me, I'm like, oh, I told him.
Hollywood is threatened to withhold tax credits from companies unless they put this stuff in.
He didn't know that.
I think the people who are watching shows like this are the people who probably will survive.
Not every single one of you.
Sorry.
Because I think that would be absurd to say 100% of the Timcast audience will make it.
I don't know, but a large proportion, a large portion.
Because so many of these people who watch have already said, I've moved away from cities, I've gotten chickens, I've tried to be more self-sufficient and more self-sustainable.
That's the kind of attitude you need if you're going to make it.
Now, if you really want to guarantee you make it, you just go full prepper.
Because the preppers are going to be the one who are laughing in the end.
They got nothing to worry about.
They got three years worth of beans, you know, frozen or whatever in a sub-basement.
The rest of the people in the cities, I don't know, a couple days they'll be drinking blood.
I'm not even kidding.
You can't drink this.
In New York, what's your water supply?
If you know where to look, there's actually a creek that goes under the city, and there's this video where a guy hops over like a six-foot wall into a space between a building, and he says they've preserved this stream that used to be here.
Okay, great.
You got some really dirty and disgusting fresh water.
unidentified
Good luck.
phil labonte
Might as well drink the Hudson.
tim pool
Better than the salt water, I guess.
No, most people are going to be thirsty.
And when all the water's gone, and so first of all, the water pumps aren't going to work.
A lot of the water pressure comes naturally because the water comes from an elevated source.
So I think up to like, I think New York has a few stories of water pressure, interestingly.
But all that's going to fail because it requires systems and maintenance, and one water main breaks, nobody's paying attention to it, no one's working on it.
Water shuts down very, very quickly.
I think within a few days, water stops working.
Then, bottled water is gone.
Gatorade is gone.
Whatever drinks people have, those are dehydrating you.
They're not hydrating you.
The sugary drinks?
That's all gone within a matter of a few days, not being replenished.
Then someone finally says, I'm thirsty.
Many of these people start leaving.
Shooting starts happening.
People are starting to get hungry.
The food's going away.
A lot of it's spoiling.
I would say within a few days, people are drinking blood because there's nothing else to drink.
There's no water.
What do you do?
People are going to become very, very desperate.
You'll die within a week with no water.
So they'll start walking, but how far can you walk out of New York before you find water?
You're not gonna find water.
The average person will not do it.
Some people will, don't get me wrong.
Some people are smart.
They'll follow an animal.
That's one of the things they do.
What they say you do is this.
If you find a wild animal, you capture it and make it wait for a little while.
I think I learned this on Joe Rogan.
Then you release it and chase it down and it will immediately go to its known water source.
I think he was talking about how they find water in Africa.
They catch a baboon and tie it up.
serge du preez
Yeah, baboons.
tim pool
Once it gets really dehydrated, they let it go because they have a secret water source
and then it'll run full speed and you just follow it to the water source.
Some people are smart enough because they listen to Joe Rogan, they'll know how to do
that.
The average person is going to go wandering around going, does anybody have any water?
ian crossland
Does anybody have any water?
tim pool
It's going to be brutal.
unidentified
Thanks.
phil labonte
Buy guns and ammunition?
tim pool
Get out of cities.
ian crossland
I mean, you can do a lot- Or fix the fucking world, man.
Like, I'm not satisfied leaving the world shittier than it was when I was born.
tim pool
That's not the issue, Ian.
The issue is...
The world is an imperfect machine.
ian crossland
I know, but I just saw you smiling when you were saying, like, how bad it's gonna get.
Like, I saw the smile on your face.
It's not good.
tim pool
Oh, come on, man.
That's disgusting.
I'm not bad.
Oh, I'm so happy.
That's ridiculous that you would imply that.
ian crossland
Well, you talk about, like, how fun it'll be to live in a van down by the river.
Like, it's not good.
That stuff's bad.
tim pool
It's bad.
I'm talking about...
Enjoying rolling up my sleeves for a hard day's work and getting away from all this stuff.
I'm not talking about anything good that comes from people killing each other to drink each other's blood.
That's the nightmare scenario.
drew miller
A good thing that's trying to be done is that documentary talked about grid down power up.
It's not just a documentary about how bad and vulnerable electric system.
David Tice, a producer of it, He talks, so he's got a movement going to try to get people to pressure the politicians and the utility companies to harden our electric grid.
We can harden our electric grid.
It's not hard to do.
It's really not that expensive yet.
Some billions of dollars, but compared to the consequences, it's cheap to harden it.
So grid down, power up is all about trying to get that done, to get people to fix one of our biggest vulnerabilities, our God, our electric system.
As for pandemics, you can't stop H5N1 natural mutations I think our intelligence community probably has been successful in stopping a lot of terrorists doing it.
And I'm not going to get into details.
I don't know them.
I could speculate.
That was my career.
But I think, I suspect there have been people trying to release H5N1, human-to-human contagious viruses.
And our intelligence community around the world, they're very good at finding people like that.
So we may have already shut some down.
So government may be doing some good in that regard.
But you're not going to stop this forever.
You're going to have to deal with an H5N1 pandemic.
And we should be preparing for it.
Which means huge stockpiles of food should be around.
Stockpiles of water.
The ability to operate when bad things happen.
That's what we should be working for.
The government's got it for them.
They've got Mount Weather, SIDAR, Raven Rock, all these great facilities to keep the top government officials alive.
And they ought to be warning the public, there are some bad things coming.
We can't stop all of it.
You need to prepare to survive a collapse.
And they're not doing that.
They're dishonest.
tim pool
I'll tell you, when, and I know everybody's heard me say it a couple times, but when I started promoting safeandreadymeals.com, emergency food stuff, this was right at the beginning of the pandemic, the market's collapsing, and a whole bunch of corporate press, leftist publications, started making fun of the idea.
How stupid are you to buy emergency food?
How embarrassing!
And I'm just gonna be like... They're not doing that anymore.
unidentified
This was in the Washington Post for the last few months.
drew miller
The preppers were right.
This was in the Washington Post, Bloomberg News, kind of, you know, left-leaning, perhaps, media.
They've admitted the preppers were right all along.
By the way, this is the picture on the front page.
That's Fort Hood Ranch, West Virginia.
They showed our facility.
We got no credit for it.
They didn't list that this was Fort Hood Ranch, West Virginia.
Prepping is recognized as being good, but still the government isn't coming out saying H5N1 is a threat, you need to be prepared, and one of the reasons they don't want to do it is they don't want people buying guns, which you absolutely have to have, and especially military-capable guns with large clips, because you've got to deal with marauder threats.
So they're not being honest, but even the left recognizing that you do need to be prepared.
tim pool
It was funny when the pandemic was starting and a bunch of liberals were lining up outside of gun stores and there was a viral video of a guy.
He said, he was saying something like, stop coming to me and getting mad that I can't sell you a gun.
You voted for these laws.
So these California liberals walk in and they try to buy a gun.
He'd be like, okay, come back in a week and I'll let you know.
And they go, what do you mean?
I need a gun now.
And he goes, Well, you can't have one.
You voted for this.
It's what you wanted.
Now you don't get one.
phil labonte
Get a long gun, chambered in 5.56.
Get a handgun in 9mm.
These are the most common calibers in the country.
You need to know how to use these things.
Go get training.
Get food.
It's not super difficult to do these things.
And it's not super expensive either.
But it's been a long time that a lot of people have been talking about the possibility of Significant consequences or some kind of collapse or whatever.
I know there was a bunch of people that bought their first firearm in 2020 during the summer of love and stuff.
Get training.
Just go out and do it.
You're never, you're not going to regret it.
It's going to be a, you know, a couple afternoons or a couple days to get training.
Just go out and do it.
tim pool
Someone said the judge 45 Cal and 410.
And there's also the governor.
I have the governor. Oh yeah, fire that thing. Yeah, with four... it's a... what is it, Smith & Wesson, I think?
Yeah. It's uh, yeah, chambered. 45 uh... if you use the uh, the moon clips, I think it's
they're called, that you can do a 45 ACP, 45 long, or uh, 410.
Yeah. Shooting 410 out of that thing, pretty, pretty, pretty crazy. So far, I like the judge, the
drew miller
ability...
It's my snake gun.
You know, I got the .410 shells that there's a snake, but you got the .45 if it's a marauder.
ian crossland
Earlier when I brought it up.
tim pool
Or, or they have buckshot with a slug behind it.
drew miller
So one other thing, I agree with your two, but the third we use is the 12-gauge pump also, because especially if you're in your house or close quarters, and if you're not a good shot, and most people you're going to be scared, you know, it's a lot easier to hit with a 12-gauge when you're shooting that than an AR.
phil labonte
Also, guns can have flashlights now.
Put a flashlight on it.
tim pool
A semi-automatic shotgun, I think, is better.
The recoil on a pump shotgun is pretty intense.
So a lot of people, when we would bring them to the range, they'd be like, I'll do the shotgun.
It's like, that's actually going to hurt you the most.
drew miller
You're better off doing something... We're trying to help people make it more affordable so you can get a pump.
You know, Walmart's not selling them as much as they used to.
You can still find some Walmarts that'll sell you a nice pump, you know, Browning or something for $180.
phil labonte
You can get a Remington 870 for less than 200 bucks, and they've been making that thing.
Or a Mossberg 500, something like that.
Those are pump shotguns, and they're super, super reliable.
These types of firearms have been around, most of them, have been around for 70 or more years.
9mm has been around for decades and decades.
5.56 has been around forever and ever and ever.
Same thing with .45.
These are not new-fangled Things, the operating systems of all your firearms that you're gonna buy, they're a hundred years old.
They're not- Yes.
You can go and buy these things, you know?
tim pool
While you still have the chance.
phil labonte
Yeah.
tim pool
Might I recommend a Caltech KSG-25?
ian crossland
Hey there!
tim pool
Holds 25 shotgun shells, two mag tubes, and it can switch between the two.
Actually, I don't want to give anyone any advice on any of this stuff.
I'm gonna tell you, I have one of these and the reason I think it's really good is not only can it hold 12 shells per magazine tube, The ability to switch between the two, you got 12 in each and then one round ready to go, is that you can put an all one side bird, one side buck.
And so, or one rubber and one lethal.
So you can flip the switch to the left and then you're all non-lethal and you can flip to the right and now you're lethal.
So I think that's actually, you know, tremendous versatility, but that's just me.
phil labonte
12 gauge is great.
ian crossland
I like that thing a lot.
Is that the one that Crowder purchased?
tim pool
No, no, no, that was the Sig M400.
unidentified
Wow!
tim pool
Talk about a beauty of a rifle.
So you know I've got like a there's a local shop and I bought a mil spec 556 air 15 and it's nice and then Crowder got me the sig m400 and uh it's just substantially better.
ian crossland
You know earlier I was kind of like Tim uh so you're smiling but like I think I know that you want the best for people but I I get concerned about the fantasy of this because I play a lot of video games.
I have my whole life like, oh, yeah, survival games and even like a genre now.
It's really weird.
I'm like you're you're searching through post apocalyptic houses and stuff.
It's disturbing to like to fan.
I don't want the fantasy to ever like overcome reality and think like that would be good.
I'm preparing for that.
So let's make that happen kind of thing.
phil labonte
I get what you're saying, but I think that we are, at the very least, the fact that we bring up the low survivability rate, the realistic scenario of 1 in 10 people making it more than a year, I think at least we're looking at it in a fairly sober kind of way.
Because it's not like we're like, oh man, everything's going to be great and it'll be cool.
We are talking about a death rate of 90%.
ian crossland
And that's a vector.
So, like, you're gonna say 5-10% of the people will be left over after one year.
That's an angle on its way down.
So you'll imagine there'll be many, many less.
Might even be less than 10% of 10% after two years.
drew miller
And we'd like good people to be amongst that 10%, not mainly marauders.
But, you know, back to the, you know, the moral issues.
You know, we don't think we're gonna get in a firefight at Fortitude Ranch.
Because we have cleared lines of defense, walls, guard posts.
We're designed to be a survival facility.
Some marauder group's going to look at us, and they're going to see every one of our members outside is armed.
That's a requirement in a clash.
You'll have your weapon.
They're going to look at us, and they're going to say, uh-uh, I'm not attacking these folks.
They'll leave us alone.
So we won't get in a firefight.
So we won't be putting our members in a position where they're shooting other people, hopefully.
ian crossland
You'll do it with defensive prowess instead of heads on spikes?
drew miller
Correct.
Absolutely defensive.
We're not an offensive militia.
We defend our private property.
We've got our farm animals.
We've got our food stockpiles, our solar systems, propane generators.
We've got everything we need.
We'll go out to hunt when it's safe.
A little off our property, but we defend our property.
And I don't think we'll be attacked, because our defenses are so good, the marauders will go elsewhere.
phil labonte
But Ian, why not both?
ian crossland
Heads on spikes?
phil labonte
Why not both?
ian crossland
Only if they're skulls, because the meaty... The skulls are inside!
tim pool
Yeah, but the meat... What if you convert the body of the marauder into a biofuel to run the generator?
phil labonte
Only if the head can be on a spike out front, though.
drew miller
I'm going to give the details of our operations manual.
If a marauder does attack us and they get killed, we're probably going to lose.
Bury their bodies with our tractors and wearing our chem bio suits in case there's a virus threat.
We'll bury their bodies in a shallow grave where our chickens can benefit from the worms they produce.
We will put them to use to have maximum food production.
tim pool
I don't know if I would want to eat chickens or chicken eggs that came from them.
drew miller
It's the worms.
It's the worms eating your flesh.
They're perfectly fine.
tim pool
Circle of life.
ian crossland
Do you take like one really big sniper tower?
Do you have like one really tall tower?
drew miller
I don't want to give out our locations.
One of our locations is of a very tall log tower.
It's actually the tallest log building in the world.
It's five stories tall.
Tall log tower.
It's not West Virginia.
But most of our places, no, we're not tie up.
We tend to be like West Virginia or Tennessee location.
We're in forests and usually we're surrounded by public forests.
So you can't do any really long distance shooting.
We're going to clear trees for lines of fire, but it'll be close.
Which the other reason why 12 gauge is fine.
Yeah.
Most of our shooting, I think, will be within 40 yards or so.
But again, I don't think we'll have to do shooting at Fortitude Ranch because they'll see, you know, we'll have walls up.
We'll be behind walls, guard posts.
100 people plus at every location with arms, they're not going to bother us.
Because again, if you get shot in a collapse, you know, there's no mass units, there's no helicopter evaluation, there's no hospitals, you're going to die.
We have clinics, the marauders aren't going to have that.
tim pool
People don't understand infection is so insanely serious that you get shot.
It's not just like, well, I got shot.
It's like, oh no, you're likely going to get infected.
You better get that out, get it cleaned, and get it taken care of immediately.
drew miller
Yeah, so you should stockpile antibiotics.
Who's going to stop you from stockpiling antibiotics?
The government!
phil labonte
That's right.
drew miller
You can't do that.
ian crossland
That's because you need a prescription.
drew miller
Yeah, you got to do it, and government.
Government is the biggest barrier to prepping there is.
It's horrible.
tim pool
Let's go to Super Chats!
If you haven't already, would you kindly smash that like button?
And if you like the work that we do, and you want us to keep doing that work, go to timcast.com, click join us, and become a member, because, uh, as we already saw with BuzzFeed, ad rates, ad revenue is dropping...
Rather seriously and You know I will say this take care of yourself first and foremost But if you have the means the capability and you like what we do then I would ask you to become a member so that we can keep doing this as well because If it does get really bad in the coming months in terms of financial crisis.
Well, then that's us, but you know what?
I'm not going to be somebody who's going to tell you to prioritize us over anything you have to do.
So make sure your money is going to taking care of yourself, your friends, your family.
And then if you actually have the capability and want to support us, then by all means do so.
And we'll make it work on our own.
As I mentioned, part of me is like, I wouldn't mind getting a van and going living down by the river.
But if you like what we do, then support our work.
All right.
I'm not your buddy, guy.
Oh, the first super chat says, history repeats.
Only faces and tech change.
Summer of Love was our Kristallnacht.
January 6th was our Reichstag.
Socialists are on the march again with matching uniforms, symbols, and violent ideology.
Yikes.
unidentified
Yeah.
Oof.
tim pool
Sideway says, just learned today that my credit union has a DEI initiative.
How worried should I be?
I am gonna take a look into our financial institutions.
So we have a couple different ones that we use.
One of them is a very local one, which I have the most confidence in, so.
Alright, let's grab some more.
Yeah, I think we'll do more of the congressional shows.
was top.
Deaf worth a second watch.
More please.
And but of course, the SVB bailout happened while still no bailout for the people of East
Palestine, Ohio.
No civil war, yes revolution.
I agree.
Yeah, I think we'll do more of the congressional shows.
The issue is, what Matt Gaetz was saying is that Friday morning at 10 a.m.
was when everybody did their last vote and they immediately fly out and leave.
Nobody wants to drive an hour out of D.C., then back, then get on a plane at midnight.
But he convinced Rep.
Bishop to hang out.
And so for us, it's like, dude, we will gladly take a drive down to the Capitol and do a show from congressional offices.
That's amazing and fun.
We'll just try and make sure the audio works next time.
But, uh, because, you know, two for two, two for two, but it wasn't that bad.
Actually, I watched it back and it was just like, it was, it was, it was kind of weird.
Something happened where the, like we have the mics really close, but it was like the mics were hypersensitive.
serge du preez
Well, do you want me to explain what it was?
What was it?
For everyone that's, you know, giving me all this audio tips, like, I don't know what I'm doing.
Like, I'm not a professional.
We were running a line out into a mic in, so that extra 6 dBs was really difficult to deal with, and just keeping the right distance from the microphone.
It worked sometimes, but it won't happen again.
tim pool
It needed to be pulled out or something.
serge du preez
Yeah, potentially.
tim pool
Yeah, whatever.
But it was fun. It was fun.
So I'll definitely do more than that.
Apparently we made a bunch of news because Bannon said something about Elon.
Elon fired back and...
unidentified
Woo!
serge du preez
All right.
tim pool
Raymond then says, Tim, these spot-on guests lately, are you a fed?
I- I- I- No, this is a thing that we've done consistently for some
reason.
We have guests sometimes that just land perfectly in the news cycle.
So we have Drew Miller, he, the CEO of a disaster preparedness recreational facility, basically like a prepper company, if I'm being a little bit crass.
And scheduled to come on a day, literally the first day for news, after major banking collapses and everyone's worried the financial system's going to implode.
And they're like, did you plan this guy to be here and talk about this stuff?
And it's like, oh, it just sort of happens, I guess.
But also, I mean, look, to be honest, the H5N1 stuff, that was, we were talking about that a month ago, you know, and we're still here talking about this breaking update on it.
So, you know.
Alright, we'll grab some more.
Pat Meadows says, every Tomahawk missile has 30 pounds of silver in it.
So every time a missile is fired, that silver disappears.
Buy silver!
And Super Chats!
That's right, thank you.
And also, we have news on the Discord.
So, um, it is nearing completion.
We are going to have active staff who are running it.
The idea is... Here's the challenge we ran into.
We don't want to get banned.
But people will come and try and sabotage it.
So what we're going to do is, we were at first advised to do a paywalled thing so that, you know, weirdos who want to sabotage you won't want to pay to get in.
And then we're like, yeah, but that means like our regular members who can't afford it aren't able to come in.
So the idea is going to be, if you're a member for at least six months of the website, if you already have that in your track record or whatever, you're instantly in the call-in suite.
So we have like, as soon as you're a member, you get access to the basic lounge.
After six months, the door opens for the VIP lounge where you can ask to do call-ins and talk on the show, or If you're signing up as a new member, it's $25 to instantly get access to that room because we didn't want to make it just paywalled, but we didn't want to have it so there was no gate because then people will come in and screw with us.
And then we're going to do an elite membership club thing that we're trying to figure out where it's like $100 a month for a VIP room where we'll figure something out.
I don't know.
That just seems like a good idea because the $100 a month one is going to be more like a club with more perks and benefits than just the lower tier rooms.
Like maybe even access to the club at the new coffee shop we're building.
Something all-inclusive and community building and like something like that.
But we'll figure it out.
But we got to do all the development for it.
So we've got to set it up so that it can integrate with the website.
That stuff takes time.
But I'm hearing good things about it being ready to go.
So at about 10.10 we're going to do a members-only live portion of the show.
At TimCast.com, it'll appear on the front page.
There is a comment section where you can comment, but we're building out the Discord so that you can chat in real time and we can talk.
And then, in that uncensored show, even pull in people to have you all talk on the show and ask the guests a question or ask us questions.
I'm really excited for that.
I think it'll be really, really interesting.
But we're trying to figure it out.
All right, let's grab some more.
Michael says, Tim, you're wrong about kidney donors.
They live a normal life just with one kidney.
The donated kidney has a 15-year life expectancy, but it can last longer.
I have a transplanted kidney and pancreas in October.
It'll be three years.
God bless.
I appreciate it.
So I think what I was trying to say is, right, if you're only on one kidney, my understanding is there's restrictions.
You can't drink.
There are certain things you've got to be careful of.
You've got to watch your diet, stuff like that.
ian crossland
What the hell?
This study shows that people who donate a kidney outlive the average population.
What?
20 years after donating, 85% of kidney donors were still alive.
Expected survival rate was 66%.
I'm not sure.
tim pool
Could it be because they're like, if you eat too much of this or drink, you will die?
And they go, okay, I'm going to be really healthy.
drew miller
It's self-selection bias.
You can't donate unless you're in really good health.
tim pool
Right.
Yeah.
phil labonte
All right.
tim pool
Alessio De Monte says, the FDIC issue is that it can take up to three months.
In the end, you will get up to $250,000 back, but how will you live in the meantime?
That's tough.
ian crossland
That's tough.
tim pool
Lou Kuva says, this feels like government beginning to take over banks so they can start cutting people off who don't toe the line.
No, that was probably a long time ago, to be completely honest.
Yeah, I mean, 2008 was way worse, but we'll see.
We'll see.
The second and third biggest collapses happening back to back is kind of worrying.
Sean Ryan says, Credit Suisse is next to fall, global market next.
Do you want to look that up?
Yeah.
drew miller
They've been troubled a long time.
tim pool
Yeah.
That's scary.
unidentified
Whoa.
tim pool
SimBurns says, Phil, I remember your Halo 3 MySpace multiplayer video of 15-0.
You're still a Halo legend before anything else to me.
Remember Reach and OG Bungie?
phil labonte
Oh god, I love Halo.
I love Halo.
You ever play Destiny?
I literally was playing Destiny right before I left the company.
tim pool
Oh really?
unidentified
Oh yeah.
tim pool
Lightfall is the new one that came out?
phil labonte
Yeah.
tim pool
Really?
I played it when it first came out.
I played it all through Until, what was the last one I played?
The one where the darkness finally got released.
phil labonte
Okay, yeah.
tim pool
Which one was that?
phil labonte
That was, no, I don't remember what it was called, but that was after they started doing the seasons and stuff.
tim pool
Yeah, that was the last one I played.
phil labonte
Yeah, I think it's still worth your time.
I mean, it does get a little too grindy where it's just constantly doing the...
tim pool
Daily grind and stuff like that, but destiny I like destiny one better because the PvP was all slide shotguns
You would just slide and then boom shotgun and you'd take them out and then in destiny 2 they're like we're gonna
Like nerfed it. Yeah nerf the shotguns and make it more about your primary and then it's like
phil labonte
Let's play overwatch now. There's and you can carry have three guns. Yes, apparently the other one
You can only have two or something like that. You know, it's at three
tim pool
I never guess anyone light special and it didn't make sense in part one why something was special and why something was
primary But now they've kind of figured that out. Yeah, and now
heavy weapon ammo and stuff I don't know. I haven't played part two in a while. But you
know destiny was a really good game It sucks because in the beginning, there were fun things people discovered, and they got rid of it all.
Like, you used to be able to go through walls using the sparrow.
phil labonte
Oh, really?
tim pool
Yeah, and there were parts of the game world they had made that they didn't open, and we would go into these discontinued areas that, like, didn't get released.
And it was fun.
And then they would warn you, like, we will ban your account if you keep doing this.
And I was like, do it then!
You don't get my money.
I don't care.
phil labonte
I'll make another one.
tim pool
It was fun.
Now you can't do it anymore.
It's a bummer.
ian crossland
I couldn't confirm anything about Credit Suisse except that its shares are at an all-time low as of like 15 hours ago.
tim pool
Hillbillary Clinton says, Tim, start your own bank.
I already gave you a ton of my money because I'm trying to fund the Timpire.
I really do appreciate that.
I think maybe Jeremy Boring needs to create his own bank.
The Banking Wire.
That's a good name.
The Banking Wire?
Like, it's a good name.
You know what I mean?
The Banking Wire.
Or Jeremy's Bank, I guess.
I gotta be honest, if Jeremy Boring started a bank right now, I would immediately move all of our corporate stuff right into it.
I don't know that he could.
John Rich is, though, so we should definitely look into that.
One thing I'm really interested in, though, is all local stuff.
So there are some local banks that are just West Virginia banks that I'm really interested in, and we are working with one.
I would much rather see all of the money... Here's what I'm saying.
When y'all give money to TimCast.com as a member, That money doesn't just, like, go into pockets.
It gets spent in West Virginia and MAGA country.
It means that the people who live out here are going to the grocery store where there's a guy waving a little Trump flag and they're handing him the $10 for the pack of beer.
That guy now has money to buy other things.
Basically, I want to build up local economy out here where the people are better.
And I mentioned being in the casino because I go there all the time.
And a guy asked, he's like, you from around here?
And I'm like, no, I'm from Chicago, but I live here now.
And he goes, oh, okay.
And I was like, better people.
And he goes, yeah.
And like I said, you're not allowed to talk politics at the poker table.
And I was like, if you know what I mean.
And he goes, I probably do.
And I was like, I can't say exactly what I mean at the poker table, but I got an American flag at my house.
And he's like, yup.
Like we all know exactly what we mean.
Cause there's some weirdo people who don't like American flags.
That's like half the country at this point.
Anyway, let's read some more.
All right, this is a good one.
P. Diddle says, too woke to fail.
unidentified
Yep.
tim pool
Oh, here's a good one.
Joshua Carlisle says, PBD podcast pulled up FDIC balance sheet showing they only have enough to cover 1.26 of the 9.9 trillion in deposits countrywide.
Okay, but SVB doesn't have that much.
So it would have to be a run on every single bank.
Look, all I'm hearing from people is that they're pulling money out.
Every person I've asked, every person I've talked to since we've heard about this news, they go, are you pulling your money out?
Are you gonna pull your money out of the bank?
And I'm like, are you asking me this because you are going to?
Because me, I'm not doing anything.
Like, I'll pull out some cash.
There's no way I can pull out all the cash.
But I'm hearing tons of people being like, yup, went out and pulled up the max.
And I've also heard from some people saying they tried to and weren't able.
I don't want to name who those people are, but, you know, some prominent people.
drew miller
You know, the other reason why I don't think there's any likelihood of a bank run in depression analogies don't work is, you know, most people don't use cash.
I have almost nothing on me.
I use credit cards.
So your credit card's still going to work, even if, you know, there's a bank run.
But, you know, there's no reason for a bank run unless people are rational.
Can that happen?
Absolutely.
We ought to be assuring people, don't worry, you don't need to take your money out, your bank money's insured, but we again shouldn't be bailing out the people who've got huge amounts of money invested in bad investments, and now we're going to pay the price to save them.
phil labonte
Did you know that you can buy a 55-gallon drum of 5.56 ammo?
tim pool
How much does that cost?
phil labonte
Like 10 grand.
tim pool
Wait, say that one more time.
phil labonte
You can buy a 55 gallon drum of 5.56.
Where?
From Brownells.
tim pool
Brownells, huh?
Put a bookmark on that.
phil labonte
I'll send you the link.
55 gallon drum of 5.56.
Green tip.
drew miller
Don't let that catch on fire.
phil labonte
Steel core.
tim pool
Oh man.
Steel core?
phil labonte
Steel core, green tip.
tim pool
I don't know if you want that though.
phil labonte
Green tip through a 20 inch barrel is going to vibe check anybody's armor.
20 inch barrel with a 5.56 is one of the meanest bullets you're going to find.
It's a five-tick helicopter.
20-inch barrel with a 5.56 is one of the meanest bullets you can find.
So anyways, I like 11 and 1⁄2 inch barrels, but that's just me.
Go ahead.
tim pool
All right, Tim Sprague says, I started native homesteading for the modern day homesteader to buy and sell products.
I started this because you told us to get out of the city.
Very, very cool.
Native homesteading.
Yeah, I certainly recommend it.
We've got a lot of work going on at the new property for the new headquarters, and we're trying to get a bunch of infrastructure built like internet, but the materials are all in short supply, so it's taking forever.
It really has been crazy over the past couple of years.
But, uh, I'm really excited.
I'm really excited for the new HQ.
Alright, where we at?
Hayden75 says, is this the Black Swan event that could cause the collapse?
No.
A Black Swan event is something that can't be seen.
We have watched this train barreling down the tracks since 2007, at least.
Yeah, but the average person doesn't!
The average person is like...
Who's Joe Biden?
And you're like, oh heavens.
And you can't, you know, what do you do, man?
What do we got here?
We got another slide?
drew miller
Yep, black swan.
tim pool
The black swan.
What does this say?
drew miller
Well, it doesn't say it's an unforeseen event.
People warn about black swans.
The thing is, you cannot compute a probability, just like we cannot compute a probability of H5N1 naturally mutating into human-human transmissible.
You can't.
There's no data to do it.
We can't compute the probability of you know, artificial intelligence leading to a collapse. There's no data for it
So you can't compute probabilities, but you can foresee these things happens
There's usually experts warning about them But we normally ignore the warnings and we're so focused on
having statistics and probability and and assuming it's a normal distribution
That's what Nassim Taleb wrote about in the Black Swan that we're suckers for Black Swan events
So we need to pay attention to the warnings.
Don't try to calculate a probability of an unforeseen event.
It hasn't happened before.
You can't calculate a probability.
So you need to be watching out for him.
And if you watch out for a black swan, you can be prepared for it and you can survive if it's a collapse, or you can make money as Nassim Taleb does as an investor.
ian crossland
How much of like the H5N1 is hysteria?
Because I just got the last three years of people telling me COVID was going to kill me.
And it's like, I'm so burnt out on that.
drew miller
A completely different COVID-19 from day one.
There was a Harvard medical in our in our Fortran newsletter when it first came out we said this is not the collapse from a pandemic we've been worrying about.
This is not it because there was a Harvard medical studies early out saying The lethality of this is way below 1%.
Way below 1%, you don't need to worry about it.
It's not going to stop people from going to work, unless the government makes you do it.
It's not going to cause a collapse.
This is 60% lethal with H5N1 amongst humans.
Now when the virus mutates, that could change.
But it doesn't need to be, anything double-digit is what we say, that's going to stop you from going to work.
Because policemen, for example, if there's even a low 20% probability avian flu variant, if you go to work, it's not just a 20% chance you'll die, it's a chance you're going to bring that virus home now.
If you've got a couple kids, one of them will die.
ian crossland
Of the 60% of people that die, 99.99% are obese or something like that?
drew miller
No, it's just, that's the total count.
We haven't had many human-human fatalities from avian flu, so it's a complete census of the deaths, and it's a 60% lethality rate.
Now, it could be a little bit lower if they've completely missed some cases.
phil labonte
His point about police officers and stuff like that is extremely important.
People forget that whatever the situation is that's going on that's causing civil unrest, if it's bad enough where cops decide, I'm staying home to protect my family, That's the line where everything just falls to shit.
You can have society limping along if you have people that are still going out and trying to keep society functioning properly.
Once people start saying, no, I'm not going to do my job, And you're talking about the infrastructure jobs like police, fire, etc., and EMS.
Once those people decide, I'm staying home to protect my family, that's when all bets are off.
That's when everything falls apart.
drew miller
Or if there's too many people looting and creating violence at once.
You saw that in Portland.
Even if the police are out, if there's a lot of people causing violence, you can't stop it.
There's just too many people to stop.
tim pool
Let's read some more Super Chats!
All right, what do we got here?
Jesse B says, the irony is if the diversity manager had diversified their funds, they wouldn't have been hit so hard.
Ha ha!
I was just checking my messages.
There's a new PragerU video out featuring me.
ian crossland
Oh, I saw, I saw.
tim pool
Yeah, so you guys, you should check that out.
I think it's on their YouTube.
I need to check.
I just saw the message.
But yeah, I filmed with them and we talked about fake news and I think something else.
ian crossland
It was great.
Your question, how many times does someone have to lie to you before you consider them a liar?
tim pool
Yeah, we worked together on putting it together.
I gave them a bunch of bullet points and ideas.
They wrote up like a bunch, they like framed it out for their video style and then I came back and then, you know, we went back and forth on writing out a script.
It was really, really cool.
Then I sat in a weird room and there was a big screen behind me and then I said a bunch of words from a teleprompter.
It was fun.
It was really good though.
Yep.
Alright!
Number one American Rob says, Tim, you convinced me that West Virginia is a good spot to ride out the downfall.
I'm a maintenance guy, sustainable gardener, and have experience in live events plus more.
Do you have any jobs open for a guy like me?
Yes!
Email jobs at- I think it's jobs at timcast.com?
And I'll write down your name.
drew miller
We have a job opening, too, in West Virginia.
We're looking for a ranch manager.
So if you've got military or law enforcement officer experience, and especially if you also have some construction skills, because we do a lot of building, just go to our website, 14ranch.com, email me, manager at 14ranch.com.
We're hiring in West Virginia.
Also, Tennessee is looking for a ranch manager, too.
We're opening a new location there.
And then New York is coming.
tim pool
New York!
drew miller
We're opening more franchise locations in New York, not New York City, well out of New York City, a couple hours outside to the north and a little bit west we'll be opening New York there.
So if you've got a really great prepper facility or an RV park and you're interested in joining the Fort Hood Ranch system, we're expanding now by franchising and it's a great way for you to help get help with your sales and operations and everything else.
tim pool
Right on.
I also do think West Virginia is a great place.
The land is inexpensive.
It's very close to a bunch of major urban centers, a couple hours drive, depending on where you're at.
And it's an opportunity to grow an economy around people who are good people.
And I have to wonder why that is.
Why it is that I can go out into West Virginia and be more likely to meet someone who knows a little bit about politics than New York City.
In New York City, they'll believe fake things.
In West Virginia, they will believe correct things.
Not everybody, not completely.
I'm saying things like Donald Trump.
You go to New York, they're like, Donald Trump praised neo-Nazis.
You come out here and they're like, yeah, no he didn't.
I watched that video.
I'm like, there's a tendency among people out here.
It's good people, you know?
drew miller
West Virginia has one of the highest rates of military membership per capita.
You want to guess what area has the worst rate of military participation per capita?
New York.
The District of Columbia is the answer.
I'm not surprised.
unidentified
Oh, that's not surprising.
tim pool
Yep, yep, yep.
All right, here we go.
Legama Thagayan says, as a doctor, I understand the rationale for gain-of-function research and I support it.
It should be done on a sinkable floating platform in the ocean, hermetically sealed from the outside with a skeleton crew of workers who live there, not in a huge city like Wuhan.
Right, or like on top of a mountain.
They do, it's, uh, um, BSL 4, biosecurity level 4.
And that's supposed to be, like, the best security.
There's four layers, but it's like, come on, man.
Someone gets bitten by a bat, and then they leave, and there you go.
All right, where are we at?
What do we got here?
I don't know!
B says, Tim, you often say history rhymes.
Bear Stearns failed in March of 08, and by September Lehman Brothers collapsed, ushering
the financial crisis.
Will we see something similar to that later this summer?
ian crossland
I don't know.
I don't think that the people that own the biggest banks would be sad if there was another
bank consolidation, so don't write that one off.
tim pool
Yep.
serge du preez
I mean, it is different.
It's like previously we're talking about value that wasn't there.
You know, when we're talking about these, what's the word, subprime mortgages, it's not the same situation it was in the past.
It's different.
There's different problems.
It's not going to be the same as 08.
We have to see.
Frankly, none of us know what's going to happen.
tim pool
Jareth Hogan says, so Tim, are you going to bring back free chat like you said?
Yes!
So, two issues.
First was, we get a lot of people complaining that there's no live chat for the show because it was just flooded.
Moving too quickly.
And when people say they couldn't even read it, it moved too fast.
So then we were like, let's do subscriber-only chat.
And then with subscriber-only chat, it mitigated some of the problem, but still moved too quickly.
Eventually, we were like, let's do time-gated subscriber-only chat.
You can only post every X amount of seconds.
Still didn't work.
Still got spam.
Too many people.
Still got people saying, I wish we could chat during the show.
So I said, let's do members-only chat.
The problem then is, now you've got TimCast.com membership and YouTube membership, and we don't really care about YouTube membership.
We just needed a way to create a chat that people could actually read.
So then someone gave us the idea of doing a Discord, which then combines TimCast.com with the chat.
So it's actually cheaper for you, better for us, brings the free chat back, solves a lot of the problems.
The challenge, however, is really easy to get banned from.
So that means we have to work out a system that makes sense.
So the idea is, if you're a member at TimCast.com, the moment you sign up, you get access to the TimCast lounge in our Discord server.
And there's going to be rules.
The purpose of the Discord server is for having conversations around the news stories we're covering.
And we try to keep the vibe in there similar to the show, meaning Don't come into the Discord just to be mean.
Come in with a real argument and a concern.
And if your concern is an ideology or a lifestyle, make your approach argumentative and academic instead of just calling someone names.
Because we don't want that.
That's not the level of conversation we want to have.
Then, after six months of being a member at TimCast.com, you instantly upgrade to the VIP lounge where you can go into voice chat.
And we use voice chat for call-ins on the show.
Or, if you sign up at TimCast.com for $25, you go into the VIP lounge.
We wanted to make sure that there was a way to gate out people who would exploit the system and harass and cause problems, but we didn't want to make it pay-oriented because then some people wouldn't be able to get in.
So they were like, time or pay?
I said, why not both?
So some people can pay, some people can just wait, and that's probably the best way to do it.
And then I think, obviously, if you're a $25 member for 10 months, then you just downgrade back to $10 or whatever and you're in the VIP lounge anyway.
So, you can just sort of pass the gate or whatever.
I don't know, we're trying to figure it out, man.
There's no simple answers.
Obviously, I wish everything could be free and we could make money in other ways, but it's just not possible.
We're not commies, we're capitalists.
Alright, where are we at?
Let's grab a couple more.
Tien says, second time I'm super chatting this, look up Operation Hardtack.
Low-yield nuke delivered by balloon at 85,000 feet.
It was a test for EMP effects.
China sent a balloon to test the jet stream and our response.
We talked about that before, I think.
I'm pretty sure.
ian crossland
It was in 1958.
tim pool
Send a balloon over with an EMP.
Tony Tai says, great guest tonight, Tim.
Well, I certainly think so.
There you go.
Alright, let's grab a couple more.
Here we go.
Sanayo Karizume says, Tim, I work with U.S.
Bank.
Think it's a good idea to withdraw some funds before it hits them?
Yeah, I have no idea.
I'm not a financial guy.
I can't give you any advice.
I can only tell you that I don't think people going on TV and saying everything is fine is going to convince anybody after 2008.
And, I mean, that's a challenge.
You go on a show like this and say the end is nigh, get your money, and then you cause the collapse.
You come on the show and lie, everything's fine!
And it's like, who's gonna believe you?
So the real answer is, look man, you make a decision for yourself, I ain't gonna tell you what to do, I'll tell you what I'll do.
You know, move out of cities, get some chickens, get some emergency food, because if in the end nothing happens, I got some food and I got some chickens.
Sounds like a good life.
And then if it really is the worst case scenario and the collapse happens, I am thankful I have food and chickens.
That's just me.
All right, what do we got?
What do we got?
Manipple says, microtransactions are great.
More paywalls.
Well, we're trying to reduce the paywall.
We're trying to, we'll have the free chat on YouTube and then the Discord chat for members.
That way, I, I, this, this works.
We, we want to create more things that members get so that your 10 bucks goes further instead of just the uncensored show.
So you'll get both.
You'll get both.
How about that work?
How about that?
All right.
serge du preez
That's a hot take.
tim pool
All right.
Fire Sky says, what about Gilded if Discord doesn't work out?
I guess that's a Roblox or something.
serge du preez
Yeah, Gilded is Roblox.
tim pool
So it's probably, we were told it was worse.
serge du preez
Yeah, potentially.
tim pool
Alright, last one.
Daniel says, I know Discord chat is already in development, but would it be possible to use Gilded instead?
Pretty much the same thing from my limited look.
But we heard that the censorship is actually worse.
All right, everybody, but we're getting to it, and we will hopefully have it set up.
So smash that like button if you have not already.
Subscribe to this channel and share the show with your friends, because that is the most powerful way that podcasts actually succeed and grow is word of mouth.
And also become a member at TimCast.com to help us keep the lights on, keep doing the work we do.
It's an interesting business model we have.
You get the show for free.
Fine.
And then we hope that some people like the show enough that they're going to pay ten bucks a month for the after show, and that funds everything.
But if at any point that doesn't work, I don't know.
I don't know what we'd do.
The model seems to be working for now, but with ad rates dropping, it's like we're trying to find other ways to generate revenue to keep the company growing, expanding, because I want to win a culture war.
So we got the coffee shop, we got a bunch of stuff we're working on.
So, The live, uncensored show will be up in about 10 minutes.
Check that out at TimCast.com, members only.
You can follow the show at TimCast IRL.
You can follow me personally at TimCast.
Drew, do you want to shout anything out?
drew miller
Again, we just appreciate your interest in Fortitude Ranch.
We're looking for ranch managers in some areas.
We're expanding with franchising, and if you don't do Fortitude Ranch, that's fine, but do get your weapon as you've been advised, and be prepared, because collapse could happen tomorrow, not just from H5N1 or electric system, but almost any cause.
It happens historically.
It's going to happen to us, and we're a lot more vulnerable now than we've been in the past.
tim pool
Right on.
phil labonte
I am PhilThatRemains on Twitter.
I am PhilThatRemainsOfficial on Instagram.
Give me a follow.
ian crossland
And I'm Ian Crossland.
Follow me at IanCrossland.net.
Anywhere on social media, at Ian Crossland.
Drew, thanks.
FortitudeRanch.com is where people can go to find you.
And then also this documentary, Grid Down, Power Up.
I'm looking forward to looking at that.
drew miller
It's a good grid.
ian crossland
Thanks for coming, man.
drew miller
Thanks.
serge du preez
I am at Surge.com.
If you want to complain about audio, please argue with me on Twitter.
Bring it on.
I know more than you.
Talk to you there.
tim pool
All right, everybody.
We will see you all over at TimCast.com in a few minutes.
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