New Hampshire allows for a switch of party and now some Democrats and Independents are now pushing for a vote for Nikki Haley... is it possible that President Trump might lose? Sean weighs in.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
| Time | Text |
|---|---|
| This is an iHeart Podcast. | |
| All right. | |
| Thank you, Scott Shannon, and thanks to all of you for being with us. | |
| Here's our toll free number. | |
| It is 800-941 Sean. | |
| If you want to be a part of the program. | |
| All eyes now really very quickly beginning to switch to the state of New Hampshire where the first primary takes place for the Republican Party. | |
| Look, if you look at the real clear politics average, it's it's you get one number, but we're getting some, you know, we're getting some other numbers coming in at a pretty fast clip. | |
| Uh Boston uh Globe Suffolk poll, Trump 16 up 16. | |
| Uh that was through yesterday. | |
| The real clear politics average has Trump up by 13. | |
| Um regardless of what poll you look at, the CNN poll has him up by seven. | |
| Uh you've got another poll, uh, Suffolk USA, you know, had a pretty commanding lead uh by Donald Trump there. | |
| I mean, a lot of variation. | |
| Let's go with the real clear politics average of 13. | |
| Um here's what if you watch New Hampshire, there's certain things that I've I've never liked about how they run their their primaries. | |
| Uh I don't like the fact that Democrats can involve themselves by switching to be independents, and then they have the choice of whether or not they want to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary. | |
| Uh when you when you get the help of Democrats and independents, uh in that case, Nikki Haley does a lot better. | |
| And for example, among New Hampshire independents, Haley would beat Trump by 44 to 38. | |
| So that that's New Hampshire. | |
| You know, this is the system you have. | |
| It's not the one you wish you have. | |
| Uh, I don't like the idea that people get to pick and choose and decide. | |
| But anyway, a new uh Suffolk University Boston Globe tracking poll released uh this morning shows Donald Trump at 50, Haley at 34, uh Ron DeSantis. | |
| I don't really think he's gonna be competing in in New Hampshire. | |
| My guess is he's gonna move to South Carolina. | |
| Uh that was his first stop after Iowa, where he came in second. | |
| Uh, but anyway, this was a survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters, and and by the way, they were they got nailed it in Iowa, so I mean, certainly they're they're credible. | |
| Among independents, though, Haley would beat Trump by 44 to 38 percent, while Trump leads among Republicans 61 to 24 percent, which leads to the the current poll of 50 to 34 uh in in their recent poll. | |
| And there are varying polls. | |
| Some is having Trump up as high as 20, some uh have him as low as seven. | |
| There was one poll that uh I uh they won't even list it on real clear politics uh because they don't trust the credibility that had a dead even. | |
| It could be, I mean, it could be closer than people think. | |
| It's definitely not going to be a 51% blowout like Iowa, just based on the electorate number one, and uh, which varies from state to state, and number two, the system, this primary system. | |
| But among those that consider themselves moderates or liberals who could also vote in New Hampshire in an open primary, you know, Haley would be leading there 5627. | |
| The question is, how many of those people plan on actually voting? | |
| Remember a few days ago, David Plouf, uh, you know, Obama's old campaign manager, you know, was encouraging people in New Hampshire to switch their, you know, to an independent so they could vote in the Republican primary to wreak havoc. | |
| What would the strategy be behind that if they think Donald Trump is going to win and they can get Democrats to uh push Nikki Haley over the top, then that means that the primary season goes on a lot longer than it otherwise would. | |
| Uh as of now, according to MPR in Boston, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters have switched their affiliation to Republican or undeclared ahead of the primary, according to the New Hampshire's Secretary of State's office. | |
| Uh now, uh is Nikki Hale am I blaming Nikki Haley in any way for this? | |
| No, I am not. | |
| I've not seen any evidence that she's actively or her campaign is actively involved in in doing this, but it's happening and it's it's been the way New Hampshire works for a long time. | |
| And uh anyway, that would be Certainly one way to try and game the system and use the system in one's benefit, but when you have 4,000 Democratic voters that switch their affiliation to Republican or undeclared ahead of the primary, uh, | |
| is it so are they following the the advice of people like David Plough uh WBUR, uh Kim Rice, former New Hampshire State rep, who is one of the co-chairs of Haley's campaign, is predicting that uh the surge is happening in New Hampshire at just the right time, quote, thanks to support from independents and some Democrats. | |
| I mean, they're actually openly saying it. | |
| And she's she's predicting that a lot of people would be surprised, adding that her own daughter changed her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican to vote for Haley in the primary. | |
| And her daughter, by the way, is not alone. | |
| When you have 4,000 Democratic voters switching affiliation in a primary, that's a big number. | |
| And that could mean the difference between winning and losing. | |
| Uh Marie Moh Mulroy, and again, this I'm going reading from WBUR and their their analysis of all of this. | |
| And uh anyway, but according to them, uh this is the kind of voter that Nikki Haley's counting on for any chance to beat Donald Trump in the New Hampshire primary. | |
| 74-year-old Manchester resident usually votes Democratic, and supported Joe Biden in 2020. | |
| She is an unenrolled voter, a so-called independent. | |
| She says she plans to pull a Republican ballot and vote for Haley in the January 23rd primary because she fervently opposes President Trump. | |
| Uh and, you know, there's also help coming from outside forces, including a super PAC primary pivot, which has actively been urging voters from the political center and the center left to vote for Haley and the state, all part of an effort to stop Trump. | |
| And they're even saying their primary goal is not to let Trump back into office again. | |
| I mean, you know, if you look at the message of the Democratic Party, it's pretty interesting, isn't it? | |
| Democracy imperil. | |
| But they're the same people fighting to keep Donald Trump off the ballot, or they're the ones that are actively soliciting Democrats to sh shift their party affiliation away from the Democratic Party so they can wreak havoc at a Republican primary. | |
| Do I like that system? | |
| No. | |
| Do I think Governor Sununu should change it? | |
| Yeah, I do. | |
| Do I think Republicans there need to change it? | |
| Yeah, I do. | |
| And when it happens on the other side, and it happens to a Democratic Party candidate, don't be surprised. | |
| Uh anyway, so as we all know, Donald Trump's decided not to participate in re in these debates. | |
| There was a scheduled debate uh between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, and Nikki Haley is now bowing out of that, refusing to debate Governor DeSantis. | |
| And she said uh earlier today that she would not participate in the next I'm sorry, yesterday that she wouldn't participate in the next Republican presidential debate unless Donald Trump takes part in it, leaving Governor DeSantis the only candidate committed to Thursday's event. | |
| And frankly, if that's the case, he deserves the full hour for himself. | |
| Anyway, they've we've had five great debates in this campaign. | |
| They've only had one one-on-one debate, meaning Haley and Ron DeSantis. | |
| Uh I know a lot of people were predicting that she would take second place in Iowa that did not unfold the way they were predicting. | |
| I know she's trying to position this as a two-person race. | |
| Uh I don't think Governor DeSantis is going to spend a lot of time in New Hampshire. | |
| My guess is he's probably going to spend more time in South Carolina with a winner take all state. | |
| But, you know, and she said in a statement, unfortunately, Donald Trump has ducked all of them. | |
| He has nowhere left to hide, so the next debate will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden. | |
| I look forward to it. | |
| And that was her statement. | |
| But, you know, look look, polls are polls. | |
| Uh the polls tended to be very accurate out of Iowa, which was a bit of a surprise, especially our pollsters. | |
| Uh Matt Towery, John McLaughlin, Robert Cahaley, they they all nailed it. | |
| And but, you know, then you have outlier polls, you know, like for example, right now ARG has it as a dead even race between Nikki Haley and and Donald Trump. | |
| And uh Emerson, you know, has Trump there's theirs was about five days ago, six days ago, uh, had Trump by a big margin. | |
| Uh St. Anslum had Trump up by a big margin. | |
| CNN had Trump up by seven. | |
| Suffolk USA 4626 up by 20. | |
| Uh, And the closest polls, the two that showed a four-point race were ARG. | |
| And it's not really, I talked to that they're not even picked up by real clear politics. | |
| And as our pollsters on the program yesterday, Matt Tower and John McLaughlin pointed out, it's beyond an outlier. | |
| And they don't like their polling methodology. | |
| And if you're not good enough for real clear politics, that is a that is a big problem. | |
| There's a new Georgia poll out showing Donald Trump trouncing Biden in Georgia leading in that state. | |
| Joe Biden trails Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup in Georgia, according to the Atlanta Journal Constitution. | |
| Voters showing Republican with a 45, 37-point lead. | |
| That's an eight-point lead, far outside the 3.1% margin of error in that state. | |
| Not a state, you know, that you can take for granted anymore if you are a Republican. | |
| can't. | |
| You know, this, this goes to one of my biggest arguments about the Republicans and that is overcome your reluctance and resistance to voting early and voting by mail. | |
| But Republicans better get their act together. | |
| I don't see any work being done on legal ballot harvesting. | |
| And by the time November comes along in 292 days, they better be able to at least at the very least match ballot harvesting efforts that is legal in states the way the Democrats have been using those methods. | |
| And if they don't, they do it to their own peril. | |
| And if you resist voting early and voting by mail, then you risk and you don't do legal ballot harvesting like the Democrats, you're going to start out election day down hundreds of thousands of votes. | |
| That makes any chance of winning that much harder. | |
| You know, in Iowa, the more you think about it and being on the ground there, I mean, voters there literally brave life threatening weather conditions to go out and vote for Donald Trump. | |
| You know, one of the biggest factors you look for in any poll is what is voter enthusiasm. | |
| I mean, the the biggest margin of victory of any Republican in Iowa prior to what happened on Monday was Bob Dole in 1988, and that was 12.8%. | |
| Donald Trump won by 30 points. | |
| I mean, that's never happened in Iowa. | |
| And with Windchill factor temperatures being, you know, 20 degrees below zero. | |
| I'm just telling you, I'm not complaining. | |
| I mean, you'd walk outside and be like, whoa. | |
| I mean, this chill went right through your bones, man. | |
| You could feel it. | |
| Uh, you know, the media is doing their their typical thing, which is contributing mightily to all things Democratic Party and Joe Biden. | |
| They wouldn't even air Donald Trump's Iowa speech on MSDNC. | |
| Fake Jake Tapper, you know, couldn't wait to get away and comment about Donald Trump and his anti-immigrant sentiment. | |
| How about pro-legal immigration sentiment? | |
| You know, I love that these people claim nobody never held accountable for the for peddling all the conspiracy theories, lies that they've peddled over the years about Donald Trump and Russia collusion and Russia agent and all this crap and garbage and all that they get wrong, they never get held accountable ever. | |
| It's unbelievable. | |
| Um, uh David Axelrod, by the way, denies being the pearl clutcher on the Biden campaign, and he's just saying Trump is formidable. | |
| Pay attention. | |
| And it's interesting because it's a message that Barack Obama agrees with, and you have prominent voices like Maureen Dowd and Axel Rod and Van Jones and others, you know, when when they speak, people tend to listen. | |
| And I'm telling you, there is definitely a movement abroad that they're just calling this the way they see it, and they don't want to be a part of it. | |
| Anyway, 800-941 Sean is on number if you want to be a part of the program. | |
| We're gonna get to your calls coming up today later on, Senator Ramp Paul. | |
| I mean, he eviscerates Anthony Fauci. | |
| Wow. | |
| Uh Bill O'Reilly, by the way, his book was banned in one district. | |
| It was a local decision in I guess it was the panhandle, maybe Pensacola. | |
| Uh he's furious about it. | |
| We'll talk to him about that. | |
| Uh, we'll also get his take on the Iowa caucuses and where this uh campaign is headed and where this primary's headed. | |
| So Governor Chris Sanunu in New Hampshire has been probably the top Nikki Haley backer in New Hampshire. | |
| Even he admitted to Neil Covuto it's troubling that so many of Nikki Haley's voters are saying they choose Biden over Trump. | |
| Anyway, on Monday, Neil Cavuto asked Sununu about the uncomfortable statistic and and you know cut in to get him back on track when he tried to talk his way around answering. | |
| And, you know, Governor, what you what they're saying is they would support that Democrat. | |
| They would support Joe Biden if push came to shove, and it was a choice between the president and the last president. | |
| Sununu's answer was, yeah, that's troubling. | |
| There's no doubt that it is troubling because what Biden has done to this country is so bad. | |
| There'll be time to again galvanize the Republican Party together after the primary. | |
| That always happens regardless of who the candidate is. | |
| The country needs a major turn from Joe Biden. | |
| It's just, you know, it's Nikki Haley now urging voters to avoid another Trump Biden nightmare. | |
| I mean, those are her words. | |
| Uh, but you know, Republican voters out there think that Donald Trump's presidency was a nightmare. | |
| No, I think the presidency that's a nightmare is the one that's happening now. | |
| But, you know, it just I just hate when games are played and when there's loopholes and people have agendas and they use that agenda to, you know, I mean, I can't see myself ever running for office and ever wanting help from independents or people that are Democrats to switch their party ticket to vote for me to push me over the top. | |
| I don't think I would be happy winning that way. | |
| That just happens to be my point of view. | |
| Anyway, uh, we'll get to your calls coming up. | |
| The other news of the day, straight ahead. | |
| A lot on Hunter and Joe. | |
| Straight ahead. |