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Jan. 17, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
31:39
Pollsters on Iowa - January 16th, Hour 2
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All right, now we're two Sean Hannity show.
Thank you, Scott Shannon.
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Last night uh after his victory speech.
I mean, this was a massive win.
This this was a record win out of Iowa.
Uh I don't it was funny.
Last night I'm watching, you know, I'm hearing other pundits say, well, he may not get 50%.
This is bad.
And I'm like, well, he got 51%, number one.
Number two, uh, the largest margin prior to this win last night was uh a little over 12% by Bob Dole.
Give me a break.
He's joining us now our pollsters as we head into uh New Hampshire next week, uh one week from today, and joining us John McLaughlin, McLaughlin and associates, and Matt Towery is back with us, of course, insider advantage.
Uh John, you specifically have been polling and polling for the president.
Uh there had been a couple of polls that were outliers.
I want you to explain the two polls that showed Nikki Haley within striking distance of four points versus the two later polls, one Trump up seven, one Trump up twenty, and uh and after last night does that change.
Well, uh you know, that's the the poll you're talking about as ARG, it's not a credible poll.
They won't list it on the real clear politics average, unlike Matt Towery's poll or unlike uh uh Robert Cahay's polls, which are on Trafalgar, which are on the real clear politics site.
Yeah, by the by the way, all three of you are the only three pollsters I actually trust.
And and although I will say, I mean, even ABC and and CBS have picked up, you know, Biden's dramatic decline with key demographics for his base, but I didn't mean to interrupt.
I'm sorry.
No, that's that's that's fine.
But you're talking about these ARG polls.
By the way, they came out of another one today, and they say they just completed, and it happens to be tied in New Hampshire.
It's an outlier, it's not true.
I literally think they make the numbers up because you've got polls all last week where you had USA Today, Suffolk University.
Trump was up forty-six to twenty-six over Haley.
You have uh that was on January seventh, January eighth.
And by the way, Suffolk the Suffolk poll was dead on accurate in Iowa.
Yes.
And the dead on accurate.
As Trump up 4531, Emerson 4428, and and uh uh, you know, and and now this ARG poll, and the difference is they have among Republicans, which are usually two-thirds of the primary vote in in uh in in New Hampshire in these presidential primaries, they have among Republicans Trump at only 47%, less than 50, and Haley at 35.
He crushed it yesterday with registered Republicans in Iowa, because you had to be a registered Republican.
And all the other polls you have, you uh USA Today Suffolk 6219, Trump.
You have uh CNN, University of New Hampshire, uh 58-21, Trump.
St. Anne's them, 5922, Trump.
Emerson, 68 to 34, Trump.
What's the matter with this ARG poll?
They're suppressing the poll numbers to manufacture a result to keep Haley alive.
And granted, you know, we may be down five, ten points with independence, but that's because in New Hampshire, half the voters, almost half the voters, are independents, and they can pick which primary to come into.
So it's not just Republicans in the primary.
You if you're an independent, you choose a Republican or a Democrat ballot.
Well, Biden's not on the ballot in New Hampshire, so where are these Biden independents going to?
They're being encouraged by lots of paid advertising from super PACs that are targeting like Jonathan Bush has a super pack targeting two hundred and fifty thousand, what they call irregular voters.
They're finding Biden independence and telling to go vote against Trump and vote for Haley.
Because they know Haley's the most beatable candidate for Joe Biden, and Donald Trump and all the national polls, all the battleground state polls right now is beating Joe Biden.
So that's what's going on with that bad poll.
And we'll just have to prove it wrong.
Like we proved these other polls wrong.
Uh although Robert's poll was right and and Matt's poll was right in uh Iowa very right.
Uh we'll have to go prove that poll wrong and go go win win New Hampshire, but it's gonna be a battle because it's uh it's among independents.
It's an open primary and Biden Democrats are coming in.
Let's get your take, Matt Towery.
Uh you were right.
You did call it.
Uh you called me confidentially privately, and you said, Sean, this is total BS, these polls are not accurate, and I said, Tell me why, and and you basically just told me what what John McLaughlin told me.
Yeah, uh, yeah, exactly.
Well, Iowa was a good night for myself and Robert Cahale had the rolling average of real clear politics, the remaining rolling average.
We were the only two to have the president where he was and also have DeSantis in second place.
But you're only as good as your last poll, right, Sean?
So let's move to New Hampshire and talk about it for a second.
Um I I consider New Hampshire to be an aberration, an anomaly, and not particularly important to me.
And the reason I say that is as John has aptly noted, and John knows his business like nobody else.
He's aptly noted that these um undeclared voters are allowed to participate in the Republican primary.
Now there are other states where that happens, like in Georgia, for example, where they don't register by party.
But in this instance, uh they knew the Democrats knew that there would be no um uh contested primary in New Hampshire for Biden.
And so they've had a long time to move folks over to this undeclared territory.
Moreover, you have the governor there who is not reflective of most governors in the country and their position on president president, former President Trump, who's working uh for Haley as well.
I think that race will become closer because of that.
If Donald Trump wins by one vote in New Hampshire, it's over.
I'll say that.
One vote.
And if he doesn't win in New Hampshire, it's over because Nikki Haley has to go to South Carolina where she is deeply unpopular as a former governor and cannot win because the polls show it over and over and over again.
And after South Carolina, Sean, you have a slew of super Tuesday states, all of which are going not all of which, but many of which, the majority, are going to reflect the Iowa demographic much more than the New Hampshire demographic.
So I'll be polling New Hampshire probably, but I don't consider it to be critical to this race.
I think this race is over.
I think I think Trump is your nominee.
You know, John, y I I look at New Hampshire as an anomaly state also.
It's a little different.
And when you have a situation where where Democrats are able to, you know, declare themselves independent and vote in the Republican primary, that that that muddies the waters or independents being able to choose which primary they want to be in.
That muddies the waters.
Uh I think the shocking thing about last night is the biggest margin of victory was Bob Dole by a little over twelve percent.
Uh you know, back when he was running for president, what year was that?
Ninety-six?
And 1988, whatever it was.
I'm getting old.
Uh I'm I that's a Joe Biden moment.
You know, but in all seriousness, so so Bob Dole is running at the time, and that that is the largest margin of victory.
This is a state that Rick Santorum won.
This is a state that Mike Huckabee won.
This is a state that that Ted Cruz won.
Normally hugely evangelical.
Now, I happen to be fond of Ron DeSantis, and I'm glad he he came in second.
I'm happy for him.
Uh, but Nikki Haley's trying to make this a two-person race, even in her speech last night.
Is that gonna work?
No, because the president was very classy in his speech and his his uh uh compliments towards his opponents, and they were a very distant Ron DeSantis was a very distant second, and Nikki Haley, you know, she can't she wants a two-way race, and she can't even beat Ron DeSantis.
And Iowa But but he beat the two of them combined.
I mean, that is a uh uh we've never seen a margin like that at an Iowa caucus.
No, in fact, I I've worked there for Steve Forbes and we got beat by George W. Bush by eleven points.
And George W. Bush went on to win the election that year.
And Trump in 2016 was very close, and he was ahead in the last poll, but then he skipped the debate, and that was a mistake, and he ended up losing a close race to Ted Cruz out there, but then he won New Hampshire, and then he won South Carolina, and then he you know, and and so this time around, it's very different.
And it's different in that you now have a Republican candidate who's beating Joe Biden to the point where he's tr he's indicted him four times.
He's got his uh his hench people like in the attorney general in New York trying to confiscate his wealth.
He's had his people try trying to Biden Democrats trying to knock him off the ballot.
And now their latest tactic is to hijack the Republican primary in New Hampshire by sending in Biden independence and and uh you know trying to create some you know some lengthening of the primary season.
They have wasted Ron DeSinus wasted over three hundred million dollars.
Nikki Haley has wasted over a hundred million dollars.
They need to stop wasting resources that we need to use to beat Joe Biden.
Biden has people like American bridge getting ready to spend two hundred million dollars in ads attacking Donald Trump.
Not Nikki Haley, not Ron DeSantis, but Donald Trump, because we're ahead.
So we need the Republicans that need to, you know, think like Democrats and think about winning the November election and stop wasting our resources fighting an inevitable nomination.
John you can say this all you want.
I've been around this game too long until a candidate's ready to get out.
They're not getting out.
Yeah but they don't have to be funded.
They don't have to be given millions and tens of millions of dollars by these you know these oligarchs who just don't like Donald Trump.
And Sean it isn't gonna matter.
It is not trust me, it is not going to matter after next week.
Because even if Nikki Haley has a strong showing in New Hampshire, there is no exit for her.
I told Southern states as much as anybody you can think of and I can tell you she is not going to win South Carolina.
She may get one congressional district and you cannot win your home state you cannot be the nominee because right after that you have the March um super Tuesday vote and that's going to include states where she's not even going to have a prayer.
So I agree with John the Republican Party's always had this problem.
The R and C should be spending his money right now going in New Hampshire.
There is no exit for her.
I polled Southern states as much as anybody you can think of and I can tell you she is not going to win South Carolina.
She may get one congressional district and you cannot win your home state you cannot be the nominee because right after that you have the March um super Tuesday vote and that's going to include states where she's not even going to have a prayer.
So I agree with John the Republican Party's always had this problem.
The R and C should be spending his money right now to set up for a strong campaign for for Trump and instead they're having to deal with more you know debates going on and money being diverted.
But and I agree with you Sean, candidates won't get out until it's time to get out.
But quitting time is coming quickly.
I want to say one last thing.
People who listen to your show, people who listen to good shows where they get the honest truth want to hear the truth from honest pollsters.
You're going to see this start to decline very quickly.
You've had really open minded mainly good polling so far.
But boy the methodology methodologies will change and I guarantee you by next summer you're gonna have to listen to me and John and Robert to find out the truth because you won't find anyone else who will tell anybody the truth uh w by the time you get to July or August.
So in other words they're gonna be saying Joe Biden blow out Joe Biden blowout, but by the way that decreases the odds that Joe Biden's off the ticket, which is something that I think could happen in the last minute.
And by the way, I don't think it's gonna be Gavin Newsom uh I after you know him giving health care benefits to uh illegal immigrants I don't think uh that one issue itself is untenable to win a national election and okay maybe you can think it's gonna be somebody like uh Kamala Harris or maybe you can think that what are they going to bring in Whitmer from New from Michigan never ex never exactly came off as an exciting candidate to me.
The the name that I would fear um Michelle Obama I know what you're gonna say I don't think she's running come hell or high water no way.
I don't I don't think she is and I can also say one other thing.
Oftentimes when those of us in this business say oh I really fear this name and that name actually gets you know the opportunity they fall flat apart.
You know we we are also human.
We're pundits.
We're projectors we we could we can't be perfect.
And right now I got to deal with what I got and that is I've got Joe Biden who I can if he's in this race, Sean, I don't care if he's limping on one leg and down in the basement.
They will find a way to say that something's changed and Joe Biden is on his way to victory.
We know I've been down we've seen this play too many times and we know how it ends.
So it's gonna be crazy throughout this whole time period, but I agree with John the sooner the Republicans wrap this stuff up, because right now it really is getting silly with that margin of area it's just absurd I mean that margin of victory.
It's time to wrap it up and move on.
Because every week they do this stuff, they take a week away from being able to possibly win the general election.
We'll give you the last word, John McLaughlin.
Well, to emphasize what Matt's saying.
CBS came out with a poll last week.
The first one in a month.
Nikki Haley's falling like a rock in the national polls.
But the first one in a month.
And CBS had her doing better than Trump.
Trump was beating uh Biden, but she was doing a little better.
When you look at the last ten questions they asked, it was push questions against Donald Trump.
Do you think he'd be better to the white people than uh than minorities?
Do you think he would lock up his political opponents?
Do you think he would lock up journalists?
It was the most extreme, bizarre, not true, slanderous questions, but they threw it in there because if you're a Trump voter, maybe you'll drop off, you'll get insulted and you won't finish the poll.
So you're gonna see tricks like that played by national reputable, allegedly reputable firms, just to manufacture results.
And right now they're trying to manufacture Nicky Haley.
It didn't work in Iowa, it's not gonna work in New Hampshire.
And uh as Matt says, you know, right now we're we're looking at we gotta win New Hampshire, and then we're gonna win Nevada, then we gotta win South Carolina and South Carolina.
Last question I want to ask you both very quickly.
What happens in South Carolina?
Is it even going to be close?
Uh, Matt, real quick.
No, sir.
Not going to be close.
Trump wins.
Uh, by how many?
I I don't know that, Sean.
I can't say because you don't know what's going to happen.
Double digits?
Probably.
All right, John.
Margin against the former governor of South Carolina.
So we will get there.
All right.
I appreciate you both.
Our posters, Matt Towery, John McLaughlin, thank you both.
800-941 Sean, our number.
We'll get to your calls coming up straight ahead.
All right, 25 till the top of the hour.
Toll free our number.
It is 800-941 Sean.
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All right, let me play more of Donald Trump in his last three appearances, and that would be actually the last four.
I mean, the town hall with me, the town hall of Brett and Martha on Fox, uh, the radio show yesterday, last night during his speech, is we're hearing a more gracious tone down Donald Trump.
I I I even would say we're we're hearing some humility.
He was gracious in victory last night, and he's now saying it's time for everybody to to get together.
And I think he's right.
I think that's important uh on so many different levels.
Republicans, you know, have got to get together if they want to be victorious in November and and defeat Joe Biden.
And that this big night talking about last night in Iowa will be in November when we take back our country.
Listen to Donald Trump.
Well, I want to thank everybody.
This has been some period of time, and most importantly, we want to thank the great people of Iowa.
Thank you.
We love you all.
What a turnout, what a crowd.
And I really think this is time now for everybody, our country, to come together.
We want to come together.
Uh whether it's Republican or Democrat or liberal or conservative.
It would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems and straighten out all of the death and destruction that we're witnessing.
That's practically never been like this.
It's uh just so important.
And I want to make that a very big part of our message.
We're going to come together.
It's going to happen soon, too.
It's going to happen soon.
To all of the people standing behind me and all of the people in this room, and so many great politicians and great dignitaries and friends.
I just want to thank you all.
This is a very special night.
And this is the first because the big night is going to be in November when we take back our country, and truly we do make our country great again.
Thank you very much, everybody.
Great honor.
Thank you very much.
But if you were watching MSDNC, no conspiracy theorist, the person that peddled the Russia hoax the most, the biggest conspiracy theorist on TV, Rachel Maddow.
Uh yeah, no, she would not even air Donald Trump's victory speech.
Her principles are so high.
Never mind Joe Biden, the biggest liar of all time.
No, we won't call out Joe Biden.
We'll protect Joe Biden.
We'll act like Joe Biden is healthy and cognitively alert.
Let's play that too.
At this point in the evening, the projected winner of the Iowa caucuses has just started giving his victory speech.
We will keep an eye on that as it happens.
We will let you know if there's any news made in that speech, if there's anything noteworthy, something substantive and important.
Um the reason I'm saying this is of course there is a reason that we and other news organizations have generally stopped giving an unfiltered live platform to remarks by former President Trump.
It is not out of spite.
It is not a decision that we relish.
It is a decision that we regularly revisit.
Um and honestly, earnestly, it is not an easy decision, but there is a cost to us as a news organization of knowingly broadcasting untrue things.
That is a fundamental truth of our business and who we are.
And so his remarks tonight will not air here live.
We will monitor them and let you know about any news that he makes.
All right, let's get to our busy phones.
I know a lot of you have been very, very patient here today, and we appreciate it.
Sorry it's taken so long.
The free state of Florida, where we are back today.
John in Florida, how are you?
Thank you for your warm welcome from everybody in Florida.
It's been so nice to me.
I can't even describe it.
I want to let you know something.
You left a state that was very unfriendly to you, And uh lots of liberals there, but you are more than welcome, and we welcome you with open arms here in Florida.
I'm a Florida resident.
I relocated from New Jersey many years ago.
And we are so glad that you're here.
And you are happily resettled in your new Florida home.
Let me tell you something.
You don't have to worry about me.
And the one thing I say to people that are moving out of these blue, deep blue states to states like Texas and Florida and the and Tennessee and the Carolinas it's fine.
They'll they'll open their arms and welcome you, but don't bring your stupid idiotic policies that destroyed the state you're leaving with you.
That's all I'm asking people.
Is that fair?
Yes, sir.
And let me just add one more thing.
The majority of people moving to Florida are Republicans.
So it's turning the state more red because it's more people moving, such as yourself.
And I want to point out one other thing.
When you drive around Florida, you still feel safe.
You still feel feel safe pulling up to drive-throughs to get food.
You're not gonna get carjacked.
We don't have the lootings taking place with CVS's and Walgreens and and uh 7-Elevens shutting down because they're getting looted.
Florida, thank goodness, because of the policies put in place by Ron DeSantis here locally in Florida.
Um it's a law and order state.
So people are coming here.
It's more of a secure feeling, a safe feeling.
And um, and I and I did want to c uh comment one more thing.
I want to talk about the Iowa caucus.
Um and again, welcome Sean to Florida.
Um if you think about it, the VEC dropped out, so that'll be 7.7% going to Trump.
So that brings him up to 59% of the support.
And then DeSantis, sadly, the second place is going to be DeSantis, so he's out.
So that brings it up to 80, 85%, and Haley's liberal supporters, which is really the log cabin Republicans and the Rhinos.
That's it.
So that's really Trump has the majority.
I look, uh, to me it seems rather inevitable.
I I look uh look around look at Governor DeSantis.
I I never bought into I I know Donald Trump is mad at him, um, but I I've I I I'm not mad at him.
I understand his thinking.
I think he had a deep concern that people might not see the the injustice that that is the witch hunt after witch hunt after witch hunt after Donald Trump, and it could ultimately hurt in November.
I understand that risk.
I understand that mindset.
He's done a great job in the state of Florida.
Um he's 45 years old.
He's got a lot of time uh uh uh in front of him.
I do believe that he is a uh uh an American first uh make America great again conservative himself.
His policies have proven that out.
He won by 30,000 votes, I believe, in 2018, and he just won re-election by a million five.
Uh that is a credit to him for the good job that he has done.
And you know, regardless, you know, of of how this ends for him, uh, I don't think he's he's worse for the wear.
I think he's probably coming out of this, you know, maybe a little wounded.
I think people all think they're gonna win when they get into a campaign.
And if he doesn't, um I'm not worried about him.
I'm a big fan.
I think he's gonna, I think he's got a bright political future because he's a natural leader.
That's my take.
Yes, sir.
And he should hold his head up high.
He's a veteran, he's uh he's a uh pro-American individual, and he has a future.
Yes, sir.
I I agree with all of that.
And and I understand Donald Trump's point too.
I've asked them both.
They were great friends, interestingly, before this campaign happened.
And and Donald Trump's point was hey, wait a minute.
In 2018, uh I went to war for you, and and when you were down, I was there doing rallies for you, and I helped you and Rick Scott that year.
Rick Scott only won by 10,000 votes in 2018.
It was a very close race.
Um, so I understand the arguments on both sides.
It doesn't matter at the end of the day.
Um, I think that uh Governor DeSantis is just a leader in the party, and I think uh somebody that's gonna play a pivotal role in our future.
I really believe that.
Yes, sir, yes, sir.
And then when you feel like coming up from South Florida, come up to St. Augustine, which is the nation's oldest city.
That's right near Jacksonville.
I know it well.
Uh and by the way, you have sawgrass up there, which if I start playing golf again, which I've not had time to do in the last seven years because I work all the time.
I'd love to play Solgras one more time.
I played Sawgrass once.
It was awesome.
Well, I'll go out with you.
Oh, well, listen, God bless.
Thank you for everything that you do as the patriot that you are too.
Thank you, Sean.
Listen, this is about getting our country back in in shape.
That's what this is about.
All right, quick break right back to our phones, 800-941 Sean, our number as we continue.
When news breaks breaks, you'll hear the inside story that no one else has behind the scenes chatter that the mainstream media doesn't even know about.
This is the Sean Hannity Show.
Sean Hannity.
All right, back to our busy phones.
Let's go back to Iowa where we were yesterday.
Uh Ben is there.
Ben, first of all, I want to say the people in Iowa are amazing.
Um I had an opportunity to speak to many, many locals.
I was in the Des Moines area, and I look at Iowa's as, you know, true blue America.
The The people in Iowa make this country great.
They they produce a lot of the food that we eat, uh, the food that they grow, uh the the you know, the the the meat that they they bring to our tables, they feed not only America, but they feed the world.
Uh just you know, great Americans that do their job every day and and just make the country great being who they are.
And I really mean that.
I really love the people of Iowa.
I don't know how you can bear 20 degree below zero temperatures, that's a little rough for me, but I know it's only a couple of times a year.
Well, Sean, thanks for coming to Iowa.
And uh yeah, you're making me hungry as a matter of fact.
Anyway, I did go to the caucus last night.
I live in a small Iowa farm town of between a thousand and fifteen hundred people.
Even if her coal, the wind, the ice on the sidewalks in the streets.
We had fifty to seven people that showed up.
Everybody registered.
I just wanted to tell you a little bit about it.
When you get there, the the door is open to 5 30 and they closed at 7 o'clock.
You sign in, you get an orange ballot.
Well, somebody else might use a different color, but I noticed it was orange.
That's probably because nobody would carry a piece of orange paper with them.
Um it had a number on it.
And uh let's see.
Anyway, you got that, and you visited with your neighbors and friends.
You saw people you hadn't talked to for a while.
It was very friendly.
Okay.
And uh after they elected the chairman and secretary, then they gave the the uh time for speeches to be given.
And one gentleman who uh was volunteer for uh DeSantis, he gave up and read a speech from DeSantis.
And then there was a letter that was sent that from uh Nikki Haley, and the chairman she read read that, and there was another letter that was read for Binkley, and uh I really don't know who the guy is.
And then other people they were invited to get up and give their opinion.
I gave mine.
Um everybody respected everybody else's opinion, you know, m whether they were talking for Trump or Haley or DeSantis or Vivek.
Okay.
Anyway, we had fifty-seven registered voters, and by the way, they uh they do take this election security very seriously.
Would you believe the number of votes added up to the number of people there?
Donald Trump got 34 votes, Nikki Haley, seven, DeSantis, nine, and Vivek seven.
That breaks down to fifty-nine point six percent for Donald Trump, twelve point three for Nikki, five fifteen point eight for DeSantis, and twelve point three for Vivek.
Yeah, look, I mean, it that's very representative of the rest of the state.
I mean, in pretty much every county, uh all 99 counties.
And uh, you know, it's it it just I mean Iowa spoke so loudly last night, it's you've never had a win like this in the history of the Iowa caucuses, and it's it's it's kind of if you when you stand back from it and you look at it through the the historical prism, I mean this this was a big night for Donald Trump, and people spoke loudly.
And the people of Iowa, I'll tell you, they said one thing too.
They said, you know what?
We feel that all of these attacks against Donald Trump, they see it as political.
And if they see it as political, um I gotta tell you something.
It's i that that speaks volumes too, because there's never been a guy that's been under more fire than Donald Trump, and it really started the day he came down the escalator.
I mean, and he talked about immigration.
It started then, and then the Russia hoax.
That would that went on three years.
We on this program were unpeeling one layer of the an onion after another, and I gotta tell you something.
It was, you know, a lot of work and a lot of digging, and we ended up getting everything right.
We were vindicated by the Horowitz report, we were vindicated by the Durham Report.
Uh, then we got to go through two impeachments, and all the Democrats will want to talk about is democracy in peril, January 6th, Trump is evil, uh, abortion, abortion, abortion, and demagogue that, and then the usual Republicans are racist, sexists, and and phobic of everything.
So, anyway, uh I really do appreciate your call.
Um, and I I'll just tell you the uh the people Iowa are pretty stunning and amazing.
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