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Oct. 31, 2012 - Rush Limbaugh Program
36:47
October 31, 2012, Wednesday, Hour #1
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Welcome to today's edition of The Rush 24-7 Podcast.
You know, I know this is the fastest week in media, and this is only Wednesday, and it doesn't feel like the fastest week in media.
It feels like this week is dragging to me.
It's not a bad thing.
Don't miss it.
It just feels like it ought to be Thursday or Friday to me.
As intense.
What are you doing, Rachel?
You did.
She got us some Batman mask in there to distract me.
Yeah, happy Halloween.
I forgot it was Halloween.
You know, I usually put a condom over my head and go out as a well, never mind.
Happy to have you on the program, 800-282-2882.
If you want to be on the program, the email address L Rushbow at EIBNet.com.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has decided to play the role of a Greek column today for President Obama.
Obama and Chris Christie will tour the Jersey shore.
Who lives on the shoreline, Snerdly?
That's exactly right.
The 1% live on the beach.
It isn't cheap, Rachel.
I don't know if you know this or not.
It isn't cheap to live on the beach anywhere.
Well, there are a couple places, but I mean, for the most part.
President Obama and the Greek column, Chris Christie will be walking the coastline viewing properties owned by the one percenters, to whom Barack Obama has said, you didn't bill that.
You didn't make that up.
We'll have more on this, ladies and gentlemen, as the program unfolds.
We have uh sound bites.
I can't tell you the number of emails I've had people who are incredulous asking me to explain this.
And we'll give it a shot.
We'll give it a stab as the program unfolds.
I want to go through the latest polling data and some of the other interesting things that that are happening uh out there.
It just it's fascinating to me now to watch all this to absorb all the polling data, like Quinnipiac is out, and uh I think they got Obama up five in Ohio, but Romney's winning independence left and right.
So much of it is is genuinely confusing.
First from Tampa Bay.com, Democrats face an early vote hurdle in Florida.
Now, as you know, the Suffolk polling unit pulled out of Florida weeks ago, claiming there was no need to poll it anymore.
Romney wins Florida.
Some other I reported yesterday, the other polling group pulled out of uh Florida yesterday the same thing.
Lana Paul showed Romney up six, 51 to 45.
I don't remember the name of the polling company, doesn't matter.
The real clear politics polling average now has Romney leaving Obama by just a single point.
Up against Suffolk and the other polling unit who say it's over and they've pulled out.
The latest Quinnipiac poll showing Obama up a point is sure to draw some scoffs.
I'm reading to you from Tampa Bay.com.
Sure to draw off some scoffs from Republicans since the sample was 37% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 29% independent.
I just tell you in summary, all of the polls out there, and there are a few folks that show Obama winning in the swing states and that show Obama winning the uh the the uh uh national popular vote.
There are polls that show Obama up one, up three, and up five, and every one of those polls is based on a turnout identical to 2008.
So if the turnout next Tuesday is identical to 2008, and these polls are gonna be right, and Obama's gonna win by one, three or five, whatever.
They all depend.
Every poll that has Obama up also shows Romney way up in independence, but a Democrat sample of minimum plus seven.
Now, the theory has always been, as espoused by me, El Rushbow, that polling units at this point in the campaign, try to get it as close to accurate as possible for their own credibility, so that they will be hired in the next campaign, and that they will be believed and have credibility in future races where polling is required.
And every one of these companies that have now shown up primarily their last poll.
CBS has got their last poll out now.
Shows the uh the president up, but with a turnout identical terms of Democrat advantage to what it was in 2008.
A lot of people go back to 1980, by the way, and look at the Reagan-Carter poll.
Polling was was uh a lot less sophisticated 1980, and it took place a lot less frequently.
The last poll, I think it was Gallup, but I'm not sure that came out on this day relative to the election, showed Carter up six.
Ronaldus Magnus went on to win.
Now, the reason that Ronaldus Magnus went on to win is, and what the polling data didn't show, is that he picked up one out of four Democrats on election day.
The famed Reagan Democrats.
They didn't show up in the polling data, but on election day, Reagan got 25% of Democrats in addition to his own base and whatever number of independents, and that's why Reagan's landslide wasn't reflecting the polls, because the polls didn't show that.
So if if you want to compare today to 1980, do you want to suggest that 25% of Democrats are going to vote for Romney?
It's a little risky.
You've got a much different demographic division in the country now than you had in 1980.
Polling is much different, less sophisticated, but it still is true that in 1980 the pollsters missed it.
And by the way, something else in that campaign in 1980 that needs to be mentioned that nobody talks about if you if you're interested in comparisons.
There were polls that showed Reagan up in that campaign in the fall.
Not many, but there were some.com, Tampa Bay.com.
They've got their Quinnipac poll that shows Romney down by one, Obama leading by a single point with a Democrat turnout of 37%, 30% Republican, 29% independent.
They're predicting Obama to win Florida.
Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager, said in Florida, Democrats now lead in ballots cast just 48 hours after in-person early voting began.
However, that's not right.
A Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, the Democrats held a 134,000 vote lead in Florida.
The early voting in 2008 had the Democrats with a 134,000 lead as of yesterday.
The Democrat lead was less than 41,000 votes.
That is a 70% drop in support for Democrats from 2008 to this year in early voting.
And the Tampa Bay.com people say that the Obama campaign is not disputing those numbers.
I'm not a seer, and I don't know what to make of this other than what's on the surface.
If the Democrat early vote is down 70% from 2008, what does it mean?
It means there's less Democrat enthusiasm.
It means obviously fewer Democrat votes in the early voting.
But we won't know until election day from the business insider.
President Barack Obama has seen a once steady lead in Michigan decline to just two points in a recent poll.
Michigan has been thrown into toss-up status As we speak, the poll is from the Detroit News.
It finds Obama leading Romney 47.7 to 45%.
That is the second poll in a week that has shown a very tight race in Michigan.
The other poll was a foster McCollum White Baden poll that showed the race virtually tied.
And it comes as a pro-Romney super PAC, American Crossroads includes Michigan in a $50 million final week ad by.
By the way, final week ad buys, the PACS Republican Romney supporting PACs have now dumped over $4 million in Pennsylvania.
Some of it in Philadelphia, as we told you yesterday.
The Obama campaign has answered with $650,000 in Pennsylvania.
Jim Messina, again the Obama campaign sleeve manager says, well, this is nothing more than a desperation move by Romney because they know they're losing Ohio.
They know they're not going to win Ohio, and so they're dumping everything they've got into Pennsylvania.
That's one way of looking at it.
Another way of looking at it is that the momentum shift in Pennsylvania is such that Romney camp wants to add it to the total.
It's an interesting thing.
Michigan, Wisconsin, well, not so much Wisconsin.
Yeah, maybe Wisconsin, let's throw them in there.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania have not seen political ads this campaign.
There hasn't been any money spent there.
Now you are probably sick and tired of campaign ads.
I got emails from people who say their kids think that they're watching the walking dead when they see an Obama commercial.
They've seen him so many times, they're getting scared.
But the th factor this in.
They haven't seen any.
They're not worn out like you are in your local market.
Same thing in Michigan.
So the question begins, well, what kind of impact, if any, are they going to have?
And as Snerdley came in and said, you know, I don't understand about advertising.
He said, we're in the advertising business, and we know it works.
Otherwise, you wouldn't be on the air.
I said, Yeah, what's your point?
Well, my point is, why when it works, why do they wait until now to start spending money in Pennsylvania?
Why didn't Romney put some money in Pennsylvania three weeks ago or two months ago or I mean, why give up on a state?
And I launched into my detailed flawless answer.
It all has to do with resources and allocation and how much money you've got at the time, how much money you think you're going to have, and what kind of bang for the buck you think you're going to get.
And it's an interesting question when you frame it in the context of didn't think it was worth any time, money, effort to be on the ground and spending any money in Pennsylvania.
Now here we are five, six days out, and four million bucks goes in there from the Romney side.
Are they doing it because Obama is collapsing and there's a chance to actually win the state?
Or are they doing it as a head fake to get Obama to spend some of his money there instead of other battlegrounds that only Romney knows.
We do not know.
And we can speculate, but that's all that it would be.
Now, the back to the Detroit News poll.
Key points in the poll.
What's pushing Romney to a virtual statistical tie in Michigan is his clear advantage on trust in handling the economy.
That's what the polling data says.
He leads Obama 474 on the issue of the economy, even in the state that's dominated by the car companies.
Compared with September, men have shifted five points more toward Romney.
What's keeping Obama afloat in Michigan is his advantage in connecting with voters who think he understands their values.
And Obama has an eight-point advantage in handling foreign affairs.
No word here on independence in this state, but in Ohio, depending on the poll, you're going to find Romney up 19, 23.
In fact, with independence.
Remember one year ago, just about, there was a column in the New York Times.
And it was by Thomas B. Edsul.
Thomas B. Edsol's a former columnist of the Washington Post.
Now he's a poo-bah at the Huffing and Puffington Post, and he's also an undeclared Obama campaign aid.
As is most everybody in the drive-by media.
And he wrote a piece last November suggesting, not suggest not suggesting, informing us.
He was telling everybody that strategically, the Obama campaign was white writing off the white working class vote.
You've heard me say this over and over again, writing it off.
Bitterklingers.
Obama campaign had figured that they had angered that group of people so much that they weren't going to get them.
So they weren't going to spend any money in areas dominated by white working class voters.
Well, Jeff Zelony in the New York Times has a story today.
Ohio working class may offer key to Obama's re-election.
As Obama and Romney entered a closing week of the race where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio were seen by both sides as critical.
Obama's ability to prevent erosion among working class voters may be his best path to re-election.
What prevent erosion?
They're telling us now that he needs white working class voters that he wrote off a year ago?
How is that going to work out?
According to the Quinnipiac, New York Times CBS News poll, Obama running nearly even with Romney among white voters that don't have college degrees.
Poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees say that the economy is improving, and most give Obama some credit.
That's the Quinnipiact poll.
They are trying to tell us that white working class voters are now moving towards Obama, even though he wrote them off.
So that's I just I did not find all this stuff.
I've just thrown it in the pot here, folks, for you to stir yourself.
Then there's also this quote from uh one poll respondent, Dana Hogan of Cincinnati.
Says here that the economy remains a top issue on the minds of voters.
And that ads were dismissed as not relevant by one respondent, Dana Hogan, Cincinnati.
She said, Do I really think we're gonna go back to the point where women won't be able to have abortions or birth control is gonna get rationed that just silly.
I don't believe any of that.
Some women do still get really really riled up by that, but I think it's a scare technical.
You think women are that dumb?
Well, the Obama campaign does, yes.
You need to know that.
The Obama campaign does think you are that dumb.
I gotta take a break.
But there's more, as there always is here on the EIB network.
This Quinnipiact poll, by the way, in Ohio, has a plus eight Democrat sample.
Don't forget now, both Gallup and Erasmus say that the Republicans on election day next Tuesday are gonna have a plus one to plus two.
Turnout advantage.
Both uh and by the way, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008.
That's a big spread.
Quinnipiac, CBS in Ohio, they're sampling eight percent more Democrats than Republicans to come up with their number here.
And uh people say, well, Rush, you have said that these people want to be accurate toward the end of the race for their reputations, credibility, and all that.
Why why why would they be so off?
Why would they continue to sample Democrats by plus eight if that's not gonna be the turnout spread?
There is an answer to that.
And it can be found in an answer I gave an emailer earlier this week.
The email said, you know, Obama's not doing anything.
It doesn't look like he cares.
Look, he's given up.
What's Obama doing?
I can't believe he's suspended his campaign.
I said he hasn't.
He's strategizing with his lawyers, I guarantee you, while he's in the situation room getting photographed caring about the storm.
He's reviewing an election aftermath that features lawsuits.
Now, how do you set that up?
How do you set it up that the election's been stolen from you?
How do you set it up that there's been fraud and you need a lawyer in there?
Well, you have all these polls that show Obama up five in Ohio with a plus seven Democrat sample.
And let's say the real return show that Romney wins Ohio.
Well, bang oh, you're gonna have every Democrat in the country thinking Ohio was stolen from them.
Because they believe the polls more than they believe actual vote counts.
Just throwing possibilities out.
I'm not making any predictions.
I'm just throwing possibilities out to explain obvious questions that people have when they hear all of this.
And there's still more.
It might be useful to go back at 2008 and examine some of the pre-election polls, final polls before the election.
Back in 2008, Gallup had Obama up 11.
This year they've got Romney up uh six or seven.
I get them confused, but it's one of the two.
CBS News had Obama winning by nine in 2008.
ABC News Washington Post had Obama winning by nine.
And the CBS News New York Times had Obama winning by eleven in 2008.
His actual margin was seven.
So every poll way overshot Obama in 2008, and they were as much in the tank for him then as they are now.
The the Pew people, PEW, Pew and Rasmussen nailed it.
Rasmussen practically right on the exact number of seven point whatever the decimal was.
But Gallup CBS ABC and CBS New York Times, uh, anywhere from nine to eleven points up.
Now, just to reiterate, I had to run through this in a hurry, the bottom of the hour, because people are quite understandably challenging me.
I deserve to be challenged.
And I said these polls, when you I said you wait, you get down to the final week, and then they're gonna get the right ones.
And so here we go.
Quinnipiac has Obama cleaning up in Ohio.
Not even close.
Five points.
Democrats sample plus seven.
Well, I I'm just telling one of the things that could be going on, I d I never, I never underestimate how in the tank any media or political organization in this country will be and can be and is for a Democrat.
Particularly Obama, there's a special attachment that all these media people have to Obama because they created the myth.
They created this whole Messiah business.
They created the one.
They created the empty canvas, let you make Obama be whatever you wanted him to be, because they were invested entirely in the historical aspect of Obama's election.
The first black president.
That civil rights and racial matters are among the most animating aspects of media people, be it in sports or news.
At this level, it's one of the key things.
And therefore you have a uh a polling like Quinnipiac University, Quinnipiac, whatever it is.
And they're totally invested in Obama.
Thrive, winning, seen in a good light.
Totally, I mean it's it's their credibility on the line as well.
So I have no doubt if if it were to ever be proven that they purposely falsified, not falsified, but if they purposely misallocated respondents in a poll in order to get the result they want, I wouldn't doubt it.
I I I would not be one of these people.
I don't believe that.
I don't they wouldn't do that.
I totally would believe it.
And then I would look at why.
The thought of Obama losing this.
You know how you feel?
You know how you feel that the thought of Romney losing this?
Have you planned ahead to getting up the day after the you go to bed.
Hypothetically here, and Obama has won.
You go to bed.
Have you thought about how you are going to feel the next day?
You don't want to think about that, do you?
Because you're thinking country's over.
I mean, it as we know it and as founded good.
Oh, you know how scary you well multiply that when looking at these people and how they are thinking they would feel.
They've th they they've they've thrown everything at this race.
They're ignoring Benghazi.
They're ignoring Obama corruption and incompetence every day.
They're going out of their way to ignore all the warning signs.
They're going out of their way to suppress all the news that could in any way be harmful to Obama because they are personally invested.
So I wouldn't have any doubt if somebody told me factually that they played around with the polls.
Because if Romney wins, then there's a strategy.
And that is to immediately invalidate Romney and his election, just exactly what happened in 2000.
From the moment that election was declared over and Bush the winner, the media and the Democrat Party sprung into action and laid the table, set the table so that it was totally illegitimate.
He was not a legitimately elected president.
He was appointed by a partisan Supreme Court.
Therefore, he has no right to implement his agenda.
He didn't really win.
Well, they're going to do the same thing here.
But you can't do that unless you suspect fraud somewhere.
There's no Supreme Court that we can see deciding the election this year.
So what will you put out a bunch of polls in Ohio and other swing states that show Obama winning, not by a squeaker, one or two.
You put polls out, show Obama winning five.
And then Romney wins it.
Can you imagine what's next?
They're gonna say Ohio was stolen.
Their lawyers already have the papers ready to file.
That's what Obama's been working on the situation room.
With pictures of the hurricane disaster on the TV, he's been working with his lawyers on this.
I take you back, 2004.
The exit polls came in two waves, 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.
Both waves of exit polls had John Kerry winning the presidency in a landslide.
And the two o'clock wave, I remember when I saw the 2 o'clock wave, my heart started being, oh no, this can't be the 5 o'clock came, and I said, wait, I I honestly did.
I started getting suspicious.
And then I read that Bob Schrum, who's Kerry's campaign manager, walked into him, may I be the first to address you as Mr. President, sir?
Well, then the polls closed, and they started counting the votes, and the real votes showed that Kerry was going to lose Ohio by 55,000 votes and not come close to winning the presidency.
The exit polls could not have been more wrong.
You remember what happened?
The Democrats immediately said that the popular vote tally was what was corrupt and that there had been fraud and cheating, and then they got the D bold voting machine argument going about how they were all in a tank for Bush.
Because look what the exit poll said.
They said the exit polls are what really happened here.
Something happened.
People voted, but they didn't get their votes counted right.
And that lasted.
They tried that for a week or two.
The same thing is gonna happen here.
If Romney wins, they're gonna have all these polls that show Obama winning Ohio by five or winning the popular vote by two or three, whatever.
And if Romney wins it, then you're set up.
There's fraud.
They they unless this is a Reagan-esque type landslide for Romney.
You just prepare yourself.
It's this the the hand-to-hand combat is gonna keep going.
And we're gonna hear all about how Romney's election was illegitimate and he's illegitimate and his agenda is illegitimate.
That's just how they play the game.
That's how they do it.
Okay, we got another polling data to go through.
Pennsylvania, I mentioned money in Pennsylvania moments ago.
This is from Daniel Horowitz at uh media something it all didn't print.
Ah, Madison Project.com.
And it's just a count of absentee ballots.
Republicans now lead Democrats 55 to 36% in absentee ballot requests.
They don't count the votes.
This is just requests by party.
That's a 19-point spread absentee Republican lead.
55, 36.
In 2008, as we have something to compare it with.
Republicans led by 2% in absentee ballots requested.
So there's a 17, a plus 17 point spread in the request for absentee ballots in Pennsylvania this year over 2008.
Here's the latest Franklin and Marshall poll out of Pennsylvania.
It's 4844 Obama, 5% undecided.
So this poll shows what this poll shows is an Obama collapse in Pennsylvania.
Nobody thinks Pennsylvania's in play.
Nobody thinks it's even possible that a Republican can win Pennsylvania, with Obama only up four, just barely outside the margin of error.
That's why people's red flags are going up.
This is it's a huge drop in September.
Obama was up in this poll 50 to 39.
11 points.
Obama has dropped seven points in Pennsylvania since the end of September.
Now the people who were looking at that was okay, he's within striking distance.
Okay, let's go spend some money.
And are you ready?
Here's the money as it's being spent in Pennsylvania, right?
Updated money figure, television money.
Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future, and a second GOP leaning super PAC, Americans for Job Security, have kicked in $3.2 million, a $3.2 million ad buy that does not count the $600,000 that Crossroads put in earlier this week, or the $120,000 directly from the Romney campaign.
All told that's almost $4 million in TV ads starting this week, inundating people in Pennsylvania.
The Obama campaign is answered with about $650,000.
And again, there's nothing solid here.
I mean, you can't predict anything on this.
You just see trends, momentum, and then you have to analyze they're spending the money here just to make it look like they're putting out an effort.
Their supporters think they're trying.
Are they playing rope adopt, trying to get Obama to spend money in there that he would rather spend elsewhere?
Could be anything.
Only Romney knows, folks.
Only the Romney campaign knows why they're putting money in there.
And the obvious conclusion they want people to draw is I think there's a chance to win this.
That's what they want people to think.
Chance to win.
Obama's $650,000, as best anybody can tell, is being uh dumped in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
But that's not close to $4 million.
And the fact that they have to suddenly dump money in media markets, which are Democrat strongholds, means that they either need to hold the fort in places they hadn't counted on the fort being at risk, or they've been rope-doped in and they're not taking any chances.
Jim Messina again, the Obama campaign advisor.
We're not gonna take anything for granted.
We're gonna make sure we're doing what we need to do on the ground.
We're gonna go up in Pennsylvania, you're gonna put $4 million in there, we're going in.
And they have $650,000.
Messina said they understand Romney.
They understand they can't they're gonna win Ohio.
So now they're getting desperate.
So that's the Obama spin on this money.
Romney hasn't put out any spin.
They're letting the money speak for itself.
Hi, welcome back.
Great to have you, Rush Limboy.
And the middle of the week here on the EIB network.
I want to expand on this, the racial component of this and the media's uh devotion to Obama and why they are sheltering him.
They are suppressing stories on Benghazi.
They're suppressing stories on his incompetence.
The fact he's in over his head.
He's unqualified, doesn't know what he's doing.
They will not allow any such stories.
They will not report them, and they'll do their best to suppress them.
And the reason is, and here we're back to ideology again, and I have seen this.
It happens routinely in the sports media.
And I tell you, I have seen this, and you do too, every day.
You just don't know what it is.
Liberals consider themselves elites.
They're elites intellectually smarter than everybody else.
They're better people.
They look at the original sin of slavery in this country as something that will forever shape harm, penalize blacks.
It is something that, as far as liberals and especially in the media are concerned, will never be overcome.
They're still slaves in one way or another.
This manifests itself in people feeling sorry for them.
There's sympathy.
They actually think that without advantages that African Americans and other minorities too, by the way, can't accomplish things.
The country's too unfair.
The country is too unjust.
The founding of the country was was just stacked deck.
Blacks never chance.
Forget civil war didn't mean anything.
Forget this just slavery, yeah, that's that's that that's the fact that it happened means it's never gone away.
And say look at Obama much as they look at.
They just they look at Obama and they feel sorry for him.
So unfair that he should have to deal with all these critics on the right.
It's so unfair.
Because of course, the interesting thing here is Obama does not come from the American civil rights tradition or heritage.
As our official Obama criticizer, Mr. Snerdley would say he doesn't have slave blood.
He's uh not from the he never has been down for the struggle.
But it doesn't matter.
It I'm just that this is how elite liberals look at minorities.
Well, actually, look at everybody this way.
They're incompetent, incapable of decisions in life and doing things on your own.
You need a big government shepherding you through life, or in their case, they need Obama needs them sheltering him.
Now they have equal respect for him in terms of he's an Ivy Leaguer and he's one of them, but he still needs a little push.
It's a it's a very you talk to um conservative blacks.
They'll tell you exactly this, and they know exactly what I'm talking about.
It's actually a form of discrimination.
The soft bigotry of low expectations.
And it leads them to have this almost parental type protective bubble.
That's why there's no Benghazi story.
It's not fair.
First black presidents have to deal with stuff.
It's not fair.
They've already had to put up with so much as blacks in this country.
It's not fair.
This isn't traditional standards that presidents have been held to.
Obama is exempt.
It's a racial thing, in addition to there being uh unbridled ideological loyalty.
They're all liberals.
I got even more on the polling data.
Plus, your phone calls are coming up.
So don't go away, folks.
Sit tight, my friends.
The Rush Limbaugh program.
Show prep for the rest of the media, which follows.
From here, the distinguished and prestigious Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies, a brief profit break here at the top of the hour.
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