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Oct. 31, 2012 - Rush Limbaugh Program
36:47
October 31, 2012, Wednesday, Hour #1
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Welcome to today's edition of the Rush 24-7 podcast.
You know, I know this is the fastest week in media, and this is only Wednesday, and it doesn't feel like the fastest week in media.
It feels like this week is dragging to me.
It's not a bad thing.
Don't miss it.
It just feels like it ought to be Thursday or Friday to me as intense.
What are you doing, Rachel?
She got us some Batman mask in there to distract me.
Yeah, happy Halloween.
I forgot it was Halloween.
You know, I usually put a condom over my head and go out as a, well, never mind.
Happy to have you on the program, 800-28-22882.
If you want to be on the program, the email address, LRushbo at EIBNet.com.
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has decided to play the role of a Greek column today for President Obama.
Obama and Chris Christie will tour the Jersey shore.
Who lives on the shoreline, Snerdley?
That's exactly right.
The 1% live on the beach.
It isn't cheap, Rachel.
I don't know if you know this or not.
It isn't cheap to live on the beach anywhere.
Well, there are a couple places, but I mean, for the most part, President Obama and the Greek column, Chris Christie, will be walking the coastline viewing properties owned by the 1%ers to whom Barack Obama has said, you didn't build that.
You didn't make that happen.
We'll have more on this, ladies and gentlemen, as the program unfolds.
We have sound bites.
I can't tell you the number of emails I've had of people who are incredulous asking me to explain this.
And we'll give it a shot.
We'll give it a stab as the program unfolds.
I want to go through the latest polling data and some of the other interesting things that are happening out there.
It's fascinating to me now to watch all this, to absorb all the polling data.
Like Quinnipiak is out, and I think they got Obama up five in Ohio, but Romney's winning independence left and right.
So much of it is genuinely confusing.
First from Tampabay.com, Democrats face an early vote hurdle in Florida.
Now, as you know, the Suffolk polling unit pulled out of Florida weeks ago, claiming there was no need to poll it anymore.
Romney wins Florida.
Some other, I reported yesterday, another polling group pulled out of Florida yesterday the same thing.
Atlanta Poll showed Romney up six, 51 to 45.
I don't remember the name of the polling company.
It doesn't matter.
The real clear politics polling average now has Romney leading Obama by just a single point up against Suffolk and the other polling unit who say it's over and they've pulled out.
The latest Quinnipiak poll showing Obama up a point is sure to draw some scoffs.
I'm reading to you from Tampabay.com.
Sure to draw some scoffs from Republicans since the sample was 37% Democrat, 30% Republican, and 29% Independent.
I just tell you, in summary, all of the polls out there, and there are a few folks, that show Obama winning in the swing states and that show Obama winning the national popular vote.
There are polls that show Obama up one, up three, and up five.
And every one of those polls is based on a turnout identical to 2008.
So if the turnout next Tuesday is identical to 2008 and these polls are going to be right and Obama's going to win by 1, 3, or 5, whatever, they all depend.
Every poll that has Obama up also shows Romney way up in independence, but a Democrat sample of minimum plus 7.
Now, the theory has always been, as espoused by me, El Rushbo, that polling units at this point in the campaign try to get it as close to accurate as possible for their own credibility so that they will be hired in the next campaign and that they will be believed and have credibility in future races where polling is required.
And every one of these companies that have now shown up, primarily their last poll, CBS has got their last poll out now, shows the president up, but with a turnout identical in terms of Democrat advantage to what it was in 2008.
A lot of people go back to 1980, by the way, and look at the Reagan-Carter poll.
Polling was a lot less sophisticated 1980, and it took place a lot less frequently.
The last poll, I think it was Gallup, but I'm not sure, that came out on this day relative to the election showed Carter up six.
Ronaldus Magnus went on to win.
Now, the reason that Ronaldus Magnus went on to win is, and what the polling data didn't show, is that he picked up one out of four Democrats on Election Day, the famed Reagan Democrats.
They didn't show up in the polling data, but on Election Day, Reagan got 25% of Democrats in addition to his own base and whatever number of independents.
And that's why Reagan's landslide wasn't reflected in the polls, because the polls didn't show that.
So if you want to compare today to 1980, do you want to suggest that 25% of Democrats are going to vote for Romney?
It's a little risky.
You've got a much different demographic division in the country now than you had in 1980.
Polling is much different, less sophisticated.
But it still is true that in 1980, the pollsters missed it.
And by the way, something else in that campaign in 1980 that needs to be mentioned that nobody talks about if you're interested in comparisons.
There were polls that showed Reagan up in that campaign in the fall.
Not many, but there were some.
It was just the final poll had Jimmy the peanut farmer up six.
And now you know why.
Now, back to the polling summary that I have here.
In Florida, this is, again, sticking with Tampa.com, Tampabay.com.
They've got their Quinnipiac poll that shows Romney down by one, Obama leading by a single point with a Democrat turnout of 37%, 30% Republican, 29% Independent.
They're predicting Obama to win Florida.
Jim Messina, the Obama campaign manager, said in Florida, Democrats now lead in ballots cast just 48 hours after in-person early voting began.
However, that's not right.
A Republican yesterday noted that at this point in 2008, the Democrats held a 134,000 vote lead in Florida.
The early voting in 2008 Had the Democrats with a 134,000 lead as of yesterday, the Democrat lead was less than 41,000 votes.
That is a 70% drop in support for Democrats from 2008 to this year in early voting.
And the TampaBay.com people say that the Obama campaign is not disputing those numbers.
Now, I'm not a seer, and I don't know what to make of this other than what's on the surface.
If the Democrat early vote is down 70% from 2008, what does it mean?
It means there's less Democrat enthusiasm.
It means, obviously, fewer Democrat votes in the early voting.
But we won't know until Election Day from the business insider.
President Barack Obama has seen a once-steady lead in Michigan decline to just two points in a recent poll.
Michigan has been thrown into toss-up status as we speak.
The poll is from the Detroit news.
It finds Obama leading Romney 47.7 to 45%.
That is the second poll in a week that has shown a very tight race in Michigan.
The other poll was a Foster McCollum white Baden poll that showed the race virtually tied.
And it comes as a pro-Romney super PAC.
American Crossroads includes Michigan in a $50 million final week ad buy.
By the way, final week ad buys, the PACs, Republican, Romney supporting PACs, have now dumped over $4 million in Pennsylvania.
Some of it in Philadelphia, as we told you yesterday.
The Obama campaign has answered with $650,000 in Pennsylvania.
Jim Messina, again, the Obama campaign manager says, well, this is nothing more than a desperation move by Romney because they know they're losing Ohio.
They know they're not going to win Ohio, and so they're dumping everything they've got into Pennsylvania.
That's one way of looking at it.
Another way of looking at it is that the momentum shift in Pennsylvania is such that Romney camp wants to add it to the total.
It's an interesting thing.
Michigan, well, not so much Wisconsin.
Yeah, maybe Wisconsin.
Let's throw them in there.
Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania have not seen political ads this campaign.
There hasn't been any money spent there.
Now, you are probably sick and tired of campaign ads.
I got emails from people who say their kids think that they're watching The Walking Dead when they see an Obama commercial.
They've seen him so many times, they're getting scared.
But factor this in, Pennsylvania, the campaign ads running now are virgin.
They haven't seen any.
They're not worn out like you are in your local market.
Same thing in Michigan.
So the question becomes, well, what kind of impact, if any, are they going to have?
And as Snerdley came in and said, you know, I don't understand about advertising.
He said, we're in the advertising business and we know it works.
Otherwise, you wouldn't be on the air.
I said, yeah, what's your point?
Well, my point is, why when it works, why do they wait until now to start spending money in Pennsylvania?
Why didn't Romney put some money in Pennsylvania three weeks ago or two months ago?
I mean, why give up on a state?
And I launched into my detailed flawless answer.
It all has to do with resources and allocation and how much money you've got at the time, how much money you think you're going to have, and what kind of bang for the buck you think you're going to get.
And it's an interesting question when you frame it in the context of, okay, didn't think it was worth any time, money, effort to be on the ground and spending any money in Pennsylvania.
Now here we are five, six days out, and $4 million goes in there from the Romney side.
Are they doing it because Obama is collapsing and there's a chance to actually win the state?
Are they doing it as a head fake to get Obama to spend some of his money there instead of other battlegrounds?
Only Romney knows.
We do not know.
And we can speculate, but that's all that it would be.
Now, back to the Detroit news poll.
Key points in the poll.
What's pushing Romney to a virtual statistical tie in Michigan is his clear advantage on trust in handling the economy.
That's what the polling data says.
He leads Obama 47-44 on the issue of the economy, even in the state that's dominated by the car companies.
Compared with September, men have shifted five points more toward Romney.
What's keeping Obama afloat in Michigan is his advantage in connecting with voters who think he understands their values.
And Obama has an eight-point advantage in handling foreign affairs.
No word here on independence in the state, but in Ohio, depending on the poll, you're going to find Romney up 19, 23, in fact, with independence.
Remember, one year ago, just about, there was a column in the New York Times, and it was by Thomas B. Edsel.
Thomas B. Edsel is a former columnist to the Washington Post.
Now he's a poo-bah at the Huffing and Puffington Post, and he's also an undeclared Obama campaign aide, as is most everybody in the drive-by media.
And he wrote a piece last November suggesting, not suggesting, not suggesting informing us.
He was telling everybody that strategically the Obama campaign was writing off the white working class vote.
You've heard me say this over and over again.
Writing it off.
Bitter clingers.
Obama campaign had figured that they had angered that group of people so much that they weren't going to get them.
So they weren't going to spend any money in areas dominated by white working class voters.
Well, Jeff Zelany in the New York Times has a story today.
Ohio working class may offer key to Obama's reelection.
As Obama and Romney entered a closing week of the race where the 18 electoral votes of Ohio were seen by both sides as critical, Obama's ability to prevent erosion among working class voters may be his best path to reelection.
What?
Prevent erosion?
They're telling us now that he needs white working class voters that he wrote off a year ago?
How is that going to work out?
According to the Quinnipiac, New York Times, CBS news poll, Obama running nearly even with Romney among white voters that don't have college degrees.
Poll found that nearly half of all white voters without college degrees say that the economy is improving, and most give Obama some credit.
That's the Quinnipiac poll.
They are trying to tell us that white working-class voters are now moving towards Obama, even though he wrote them off.
So that's I just not find all this stuff.
I'm just throwing it into the pot here, folks, for you to stir yourself.
Then there is also this quote from one poll respondent, Dana Hogan of Cincinnati.
It says here that the economy remains a top issue on the minds of voters and that ads were dismissed as not relevant by one respondent, Dana Hogan, Cincinnati.
She said, Do I really think we're going to go back to the point where women won't be able to have abortions or birth control is going to get rationed?
That's just silly.
I don't believe any of that.
Some women do still get really, really riled up by that, but I think it's a scare tech.
Really, you think women are that dumb?
Well, the Obama campaign does, yes.
You need to know that.
The Obama campaign does think you are that dumb.
I got to take a break, but there's more, as there always is here on the EIB network.
This Quinnipiac poll, by the way, in Ohio, has a plus-eight Democrat sample.
Don't forget now, both Gallup and Rasmussen say that the Republicans on Election Day next Tuesday are going to have a plus one to plus two turnout advantage.
Both, and by the way, Rasmussen was the most accurate in 2008.
That's a big spread.
Quinnipiac, CBS, in Ohio, they're sampling 8% more Democrats than Republicans to come up with their number here.
And people say, well, Rush, you have said that these people want to be accurate toward the end of the race for their reputations, credibility, and all that.
Why would they be so off?
Why would they continue to sample Democrats by plus eight if that's not going to be the turnout spread?
There is an answer to that.
And it can be found in an answer I gave an email earlier this week.
The email said, you know, Obama not doing anything.
It doesn't look like he cares.
Look, he's giving up.
What's Obama doing?
I can't believe he suspended his campaign.
I said he hasn't.
He's strategizing with his lawyers.
I guarantee you, while he's in the situation room getting photographed, caring about the storm, he's reviewing an election aftermath that features lawsuits.
How do you set that up?
How do you set it up that the election's been stolen from you?
How do you set it up that there's been fraud and you need lawyers in there?
Well, you have all these polls that show Obama up five in Ohio with a plus seven Democrat sample.
And let's say the real returns show that Romney wins Ohio.
Well, bango, you're going to have every Democrat in the country thinking Ohio was stolen from him because they believe the polls more than they believe actual vote counts.
Just throwing possibilities out.
I'm not making any predictions.
I'm just throwing possibilities out to explain obvious questions that people have when they hear all of this.
And there's still more.
It may be useful to go back to 2008 and examine some of the pre-election polls, final polls before the election.
Back in 2008, Gallup had Obama up 11.
This year, they've got Romney up 6 or 7.
I get them confused, but it's one of the two.
CBS News had Obama winning by 9 in 2008.
ABC News, Washington Post, had Obama winning by 9.
And the CBS News, New York Times had Obama winning by 11 in 2008.
His actual margin was seven.
So every poll way overshot Obama in 2008, and they were as much in the tank for him then as they are now.
The Pew people, PEW, Pew, and Rasmussen nailed it.
Rasmussen practically write on the exact number of seven point whatever the decimal was.
But Gallup, CBS, ABC, and CBS New York Times, anywhere from 9 to 11 points up.
Now, just to reiterate, and I run through this in a hurry, the bottom of the hour, because people are quite understandably challenging me.
I deserve to be challenged.
These polls, I said, you wait.
You get down to the final week, and then you're going to get the right ones.
And so here we go.
Quinnipiac has Obama cleaning up in Ohio.
Not even close.
Five points.
Democrat sample plus seven.
Well, I'm just one of the things that could be going on.
I never, I never underestimate how in the tank any media or political organization in this country will be and can be and is for a Democrat, particularly Obama.
There's a special attachment that all these media people have to Obama because they created the myth.
They created this whole Messiah business.
They created the one.
They created the empty canvas, let you make Obama be whatever you wanted him to be because they were invested entirely in the historical aspect of Obama's election, the first black president.
That civil rights and racial matters are among the most animating aspects of media people, be it in sports or news.
At this level, it's one of the key things.
And therefore, you have a polling like Quinnipiac University, Quinnipiac, whatever it is.
And they're totally invested in Obama.
Thriving, winning, seen in a good light.
I mean, it's their credibility on the line as well.
So I have no doubt, if it were to ever be proven that they purposely falsified, not falsified, but if they purposely misallocated respondents in a poll in order to get the result they want, I wouldn't doubt it.
I would not be one of these people.
I don't believe that.
They wouldn't do that.
I totally would believe it.
And then I would look at why the thought of Obama losing this.
Do you know how you feel?
You know how you feel the thought of Romney losing this?
Have you planned ahead to getting up the day after the election?
You go to bed.
Hypothetically here, and Obama has won.
Have you thought about how you are going to feel the next day?
You don't want to think about that, do you?
Because you're thinking country's over.
I mean, as we know it and as founded good, you know how scared you are.
Well, multiply that when looking at these people and how they are thinking they would feel.
They've thrown everything at this race.
They're ignoring Benghazi.
They're ignoring Obama corruption and incompetence every day.
They're going out of their way to ignore all the warning signs.
They're going out of their way to suppress all the news that could in any way be harmful to Obama because they are personally invested.
So I wouldn't have any doubt if somebody told me factually that they played around with the polls.
Because if Romney wins, then there's a strategy.
And that is to immediately invalidate Romney and his election, just exactly what happened in 2000.
From the moment that election was declared over and Bush the winner, the media and the Democrat Party sprung into action and laid the table, set the table so that it was totally illegitimate.
He was not a legitimately elected president.
He was appointed by a partisan Supreme Court.
Therefore, he has no right to implement his agenda.
He didn't really win.
Well, they're going to do the same thing here.
But you can't do that unless you suspect fraud somewhere.
There's no Supreme Court that we can see deciding the election this year.
So what will?
Well, you put out a bunch of polls in Ohio and other swing states that show Obama winning, not by a squeaker, one or two.
You put polls that show Obama winning five.
And then Romney wins it.
Can you imagine what's next?
They're going to say Ohio was stolen.
Their lawyers already have the papers ready to file.
That's what Obama's been working on the Situation Room with pictures of the hurricane disaster on the TV.
He's been working with his lawyers on this.
I take you back, 2004, the exit polls came in two waves, 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.
Both waves of exit polls had John Kerry winning the presidency in a landslide.
And the 2 o'clock wave, I remember when I saw the 2 o'clock wave, my heart started to be, oh, no, this can't play.
The 5 o'clock came, and I said, wait, I honestly did.
I started getting suspicious.
And then I read that Bob Shrum, who was Kerry's campaign manager, walked into him.
May I be the first to address you as Mr. President, sir?
Well, then the polls closed, and they started counting the votes, and the real votes showed that Kerry was going to lose Ohio by 55,000 votes and not come close to winning the presidency.
The exit polls could not have been more wrong.
Do you remember what happened?
The Democrats immediately said that the popular vote tally was what was corrupt and that there had been fraud and cheating.
And then they got the debold voting machine argument going about how they were all in a tank for Bush because look what the exit poll said.
They said the exit polls are what really happened here.
Something happened.
People voted, but they didn't get their votes counted right.
And that lasted.
They tried that for a week or two.
The same thing is going to happen here.
If Romney wins, they're going to have all these polls that show Obama winning Ohio by five or winning the popular vote by two or three, whatever.
And if Romney wins it, then you're set up.
There's fraud.
Unless this is a Reagan-esque type landslide for Romney, you just prepare yourself.
The hand-to-hand combat is going to keep going.
And we're going to hear all about how Romney's election was illegitimate and he's illegitimate and his agenda is illegitimate.
That's just how they play the game.
That's how they do it.
Okay, we've got another polling data to go through.
Pennsylvania, I mentioned money in Pennsylvania moments ago.
This is from Daniel Horowitz at media something that all didn't print.
Ah, MadisonProject.com.
And it's just a count of absentee ballots.
Republicans now lead Democrats 55 to 36% in absentee ballot requests.
They don't count the votes.
This is just requests by party.
That's a 19-point spread absentee Republican lead.
55, 36.
In 2008, as we have something to compare it with, Republicans led by 2% in absentee ballots requested.
So there's a 17, a plus 17 point spread in the request for absentee ballots in Pennsylvania this year over 2008.
Here's the latest Franklin and Marshall poll out of Pennsylvania.
It's 48, 44 Obama, 5% undecided.
So this poll shows, what this poll shows is an Obama collapse in Pennsylvania.
Nobody thinks Pennsylvania is in play.
Nobody thinks it's even possible that a Republican could win Pennsylvania with Obama only up four, just barely outside the margin of error.
That's why people's red flags are going up.
This is, it's a huge drop.
In September, Obama was up in this poll 50 to 39.
11 points.
Obama has dropped seven points in Pennsylvania since the end of September.
Now, the people looking at that would say, okay, he's within striking distance.
Okay, let's go spend some money.
And are you right?
Here's the money as it's being spent in Pennsylvania right an updated money figure, television money.
Romney's super PAC, Restore Our Future, and a second GOP-leaning super PAC, Americans for Job Security, have kicked in $3.2 million, a $3.2 million ad buy.
That does not count the $600,000 that Crossroads put in earlier this week or the $120,000 directly from the Romney campaign.
All told, that's almost $4 million in TV ads starting this week, inundating people in Pennsylvania.
The Obama campaign has answered with about $650,000.
And again, there's nothing solid here.
I mean, you can't predict anything on this.
You just see trends, momentum, and then you have to analyze, are they spending the money here just to make it look like they're putting out an effort?
Their supporters think they're trying.
Are they playing Ropa dope, trying to get Obama to spend money in there that he would rather spend elsewhere?
Could be anything.
Only Romney knows, folks.
Only the Romney campaign knows why they're putting money in there.
And the obvious conclusion they want people to draw is I think there's a chance to win this.
That's what they want people to think.
Chance to win Pennsylvania.
Obama's $650,000, as best anybody can tell, is being dumped in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
But that's not close to $4 million.
And the fact that they have to suddenly dump money in media markets, which are Democrats' strongholds, means that they either need to hold the fort in places they hadn't counted on the fort being at risk, or they've been ROPA-doped in and they're not taking any chances.
Jim Messina again, the Obama campaign advisor.
We're not going to take anything for granted.
We're going to make sure we're doing what we need to do on the ground.
We're going to go up in Pennsylvania.
You're going to put $4 million in there.
We're going in.
And they have $650,000.
Messina said they understand Romney.
They understand they're going to win Ohio.
So now they're getting desperate.
So that's the Obama spin on this money.
Romney hasn't put out any spend.
They're letting the money speak for itself.
Hi, welcome back.
Great to have you, Rushland Boy, and the middle of the week here on the EIB network.
I want to expand on this the racial component of this and the media's devotion to Obama and why they are sheltering him.
They are suppressing stories on Benghazi.
They're suppressing stories on his incompetence, the fact he's in over his head.
He's unqualified, doesn't know what he's doing.
They will not allow any such stories.
They will not report them and they'll do their best to suppress them.
And the reason is, and here we're back to ideology again, and I have seen this.
It happens routinely in the sports media.
And I tell you, I have seen this, and you do too every day.
You just don't know what it is.
Liberals consider themselves elites.
They're elites intellectually smarter than everybody else.
They're better people.
They look at the original sin of slavery in this country as something that will forever shape, harm, penalize blacks.
It is something that, as far as liberals, and especially the media are concerned, will never be overcome.
They're still slaves in one way or another.
This manifests itself in people feeling sorry for him.
There's sympathy.
They actually think that without advantages that African Americans, and other minorities too, by the way, can't accomplish things.
The country's too unfair.
The country is too unjust.
The founding of the country was just a stack deck.
Blacks didn't have her chance.
Forget Civil War didn't mean anything.
Forget this slavery.
Yeah, that's the fact that it happened means it's never gone away.
And so they look at Obama much as they look at Obama and they feel sorry for him.
So unfair that he should have to deal with all these critics on the right.
It's so unfair.
Because, of course, the interesting thing here is Obama does not come from the American civil rights tradition or heritage.
As our official Obama criticizer, Mr. Snirdley, would say, he doesn't have slave blood.
He's not from the, he never has been down for the struggle.
But it doesn't matter.
This is how elite liberals look at minorities.
Actually, look at everybody this way.
They're incompetent, incapable of decisions in life and doing things on your own.
You need a big government shepherding you through life.
In their case, they need Obama needs them sheltering him.
Now, they have equal respect for him in terms of he's an Ivy Leagueer and he's one of them, but he still needs a little push.
It's a very you talk to conservative blacks.
They'll tell you exactly this, and they know exactly what I'm talking about.
It's actually a form of discrimination.
The soft bigotry of low expectations.
And it leads them to have this almost parental type protective bubble.
That's why there's no Benghazi story.
It's not fair.
The first black presidents have to deal with stuff.
It's not fair.
They've already had to put up with so much as blacks in this country.
It's not fair.
There's a traditional standards that presidents have been held to.
Obama is exempt.
It's a racial thing.
In addition to there being unbridled ideological loyalty, they're all liberals.
I got even more on the polling data.
Plus, your phone calls are coming up.
Don't go away, folks.
Sit tight, my friends.
The Rush Limbaugh program.
Show prep for the rest of the media, which follows.
From here, the distinguished and prestigious Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies, a brief profit break here at the top of the hour.
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