Nick Fuentes asserts the U.S. is losing the Iran War, citing intelligence that 30 of 33 missile sites remain operational and 75% of the stockpile intact despite 15,000 airstrikes. He argues Trump's "Matrix presidency" enables Israel to destroy regimes while stalling diplomacy over uranium forfeiture and Strait of Hormuz control. Fuentes critiques Steven Crowder for appeasing an audience supporting mass deportations and war, labeling compromise as "cope." Ultimately, he concludes that without a negotiated settlement granting Iran sovereignty, the conflict risks catastrophic escalation with no winning scenario short of nuclear exchange. [Automatically generated summary]
You have been looking at no more than projections of a conjured reality.
Also known as a mirage.
But we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means for expanding our sphere of influence.
What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
An overflowing of love.
An overflowing of self-giving love.
So much of it, it cannot be contained.
An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children.
Even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
Because the Republicans are better than the Democrats.
Here's a little perspective.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
Because it was Trump.
If it was Kamala, do you think 90% of Republicans would have supported it?
Absolutely not.
Democrats wouldn't support it, independents wouldn't support it, and Republicans would not support it.
And it's time to just say it outright Donald Trump is the Matrix president, okay?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the Matrix candidate.
In 2020, Joe Biden was the matrix candidate.
But in 2024, Donald Trump was.
And why?
After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
It's clear.
It's obvious.
And the media is in on it.
Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the media are all in on it because Trump is their matrix candidate.
That's why CNN is friendly to them.
That's why Silicon Valley gave him hundreds of millions of dollars.
That's why Wall Street did.
And Trump is just dispensing the favors corporate tax cuts for Wall Street, bombing Iran for Israel.
This is the story of the 2024 election.
And here's the red pill that nobody's ready for JD Vance is the Matrix candidate.
They ordered Trump to nominate him.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Tucker Carlson ordered Trump to pick JD Vance.
Party.
And they played the parties off of each other.
They've done it forever.
When Israel was under attack, they played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
Trump said he was going to bomb Iran.
We're tough.
So they leaned into the Republican cultural stuff.
That's why Charlie Kirk says Islam is taking over America because that kind of Islamophobic rhetoric plays well with the right wing.
That's why they did it.
There's no Muslim takeover of America.
There's a Jewish takeover of America, obviously.
And the Republicans are involved in it just as much as the Democrats.
And this is what they don't want you to hear.
Jewish Takeover of America00:02:38
unidentified
They are getting stronger.
I don't want to pretend, oh no, they're totally relevant.
I can't see the time but I'm having the time of my life Chris Poe, the game on the line I'm dropping the dime on him He forged me up to turning white USA and blocked it And that's why it's filled with gripe I'm trying to change for the better, it's dropping me fucking insane, hey He on the bed, I'm on the cover, we not on the same pace I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on the cover, this whole game covered everything I'm gonna buy a bottle, take a banana, but she is not getting ready,
He paved the way with our corkses Broipers and all the alt-riders that got banned, all the alt-riders that got slandered, even people that killed themselves.
Our corpses paved the way for you now to walk over.
And you can't give us acknowledgement.
Now you want to slam the door on us?
It's not right.
It's not right.
Alantir, analytics company.
They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
Palantir comes in and interprets the data using.
Algorithms using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
That's what they are.
And so many of the people that worked with Elon that came into the government through Doge worked with Palantir.
Now that Doge is finished, Palantir seems to be just getting started.
This would be the third time that Israel has threatened to use nukes to force the United States to help them.
The first time was in 1973.
When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
So, the prime minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon and said, If you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
We will use our nuclear arsenal.
We will nuke the Middle East.
And you want to know what happened next?
The largest airlift by tonnage of military equipment in the history of the earth.
Everything that Israel needed to defend themselves.
The next day, there's a word for that.
It's called nuclear blackmail.
These people are maniacs.
This is your closest ally.
And for people that say, You know, what does it matter?
We're like the SWAT team of Free Thought, and I go in with this battle ram at the door, and then they come in with these laser beams and have that information.
Great powers do that's what they've always done, it's what they always will do.
So, it's totally fair for us to recognize that the countries around Russia, no, we shouldn't be invading or torturing them or oppressing them.
Of course, that's their sphere.
And, big picture, holy smokes, you do not want the two largest powers in the world, apart from the United States, to get together and align against us.
If you want to take your country back, you have to stand up and take your own side.
It's all coming down to this.
In 2026, in the midterms, we are showing up and the Gripers are showing up with us.
unidentified
Days after
Looking Like an Asshole00:15:25
unidentified
the September attacks, there were countless rumors about strange coincidences surrounding the events.
One report about a group of Middle Eastern men spotted the morning of September 11th parked just across the river from New York City has not gone away.
No one's allowed to say that the blood is a quintessential part of this, that the blood of our people is something that is essential.
that we are different.
That America was different because we are different.
It's Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions.
It's our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us, of love and overflowing of self giving love.
So much of it, it cannot be contained.
An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children, even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
That is what makes us different.
That is what makes us good.
Ever since I got on this keto night, ever since I got on the air circle, ever since I got on the carnivore night, shut the fuck up.
We have a tendency to unthinkingly always support the right wing.
Why?
Because the Republicans are better than the Democrats.
Here's a little perspective.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
Because it was Trump.
If it was Kamala, do you think 90% of Republicans would have supported it?
Absolutely not.
Democrats wouldn't support it, independents wouldn't support it, and Republicans would not support it.
And it's time to just say it outright Donald Trump is the Matrix president, okay?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the Matrix candidate.
In 2020, Joe Biden was the matrix candidate.
But in 2024, Donald Trump was.
And why?
After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
It's clear, it's obvious.
And the media is in on it.
Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the media are all in on it because Trump is their matrix candidate.
That's why CNN is friendly to them.
That's why Silicon Valley gave him hundreds of millions of dollars.
That's why Wall Street did.
And Trump is just dispensing the favors.
Corporate tax cuts for Wall Street, bombing Iran for Israel.
This is the story of the 2024 election.
And here's the red pill that nobody's ready for JD Vance is the Matrix candidate.
They ordered Trump to nominate him.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Tucker Carlson ordered Trump to pick JD Vance.
We live in a system that is controlled by one party, and they played the parties off of each other.
They've done it forever.
When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
Trump said he was going to bomb Iran.
We're tough.
So they leaned into the Republican cultural stuff.
That's why Charlie Kirk says Islam is taking over America, because that kind of Islamophobic rhetoric plays well with the right wing.
That's why they did it.
There's no Muslim takeover of America, there's a Jewish takeover of America, obviously.
And the Republicans are involved in it just as much as the Democrats.
And this is what they don't want you to hear.
unidentified
What she pleases,
she's happy on her own.
She picks up all the pieces.
She's going home.
Baby, I'm home, I'm home, I'm home.
Yeah, she's going home.
Baby, I'm home, I'm home, I'm home.
Seems so easy.
Get on your own.
Don't teach me.
She's going home.
Baby, I'm home, I'm home, I'm home.
Yeah, she's going home.
Baby, I'm home, I'm
home.
Beats with everything.
They are getting stronger.
I don't want to pretend, oh no, they're totally relevant.
They have made peace with Egypt, Jordan, Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia.
They have destroyed the regime in Iraq, Syria, and soon to be Iran.
And what this gives them is unbridled, unlimited power.
To do what exactly?
Well, most likely to expand their territory.
Who exactly would stop them?
The answer is nobody.
If Israel controls that region, How rich, how powerful can they become?
My issue with Iranian regime change is that we are creating an Israeli superpower that not even we will be able to restrain.
Look at how they have used us like an instrument.
They stole a nuclear arsenal from us, they got all of this military technology from us, we defeated their foes, and now we have essentially handed this to them.
Now they're ready to cut the umbilical cord and become their own superpower.
We endured the cost, we paid the money, our soldiers died, our country burned so that.
A Israeli superpower could be born, and now our country will be in the wreckage.
unidentified
Alright, 15 seconds.
Guidance is internal.
Five.
Four.
Ignition sequence start.
You are the best guest player in the world without a doubt, aren't you?
Five.
Fifteen seconds.
Guidance is internal.
Four.
Four.
Five.
The second to none, we have the baseline!
At one full spin per man, one giant win per man.
But one of them caught our eye, the one in the center.
He would neither go towards the feeding grounds at the edge of the ice nor return to the colony.
Shortly afterwards, we saw him heading straight towards the mountains, some 70 kilometers away.
Dr. Ainley explained that even if he caught him and brought him back to the colony, he would immediately head right back for the moment.
Half ago, people said, I just can't even imagine Trump bringing us to war in Iran for regime change.
That's insane, it's unimaginable.
And now it's inevitable.
Now it's unthinkable that we're not going to war, and that is because of the coercive influence of organized inside of our country.
I think I'm modern.
Kiss me, I'm Irish.
Americans are going to take our country back.
I won't even let death stop me.
unidentified
I can't see the time but I'm having the time of my life Chris Poe, the game on the line I'm dropping the dime on him He quit dropping the company to the- I'm trying to change for the better It's dropping me fucking the same,
hey He on the bed, I wanna cover, we not on the same pace I be from the bed, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on the cover,
this whole game covered in everything I'm gonna buy a bottle, take a banana, but she is not getting wet, it rain If he wants to interview Nick Fuente the word out.
They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
Comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
That's what they are.
And so many of the people that worked with Elon that came into the government through Doge worked with Palantir.
that Doge is finished, Palantir seems to be just getting started.
That's like no time to fall asleep or play Fortnite or get dressed or anything.
So it's already been a long day of content.
We'll talk a little bit about the Steven Crowder thing, but we got a big show.
Not a lot of news to get into, not a lot to talk about.
It's been sort of a slow day.
Our featured story, we're going to talk all about the war in Iran, and there's some important developments.
A big development is we finally got an Iranian response to the U.S. proposal to end the conflict.
We've been waiting for this response for about a week and a half.
It finally arrived on Sunday, and Trump has rejected Iran's response.
We gave them a proposal, they responded, and there are some things for them which are non negotiable that we can never agree to.
And so as of Sunday, Trump has rejected their counterproposal, and Iran seems adamant they're sticking to their guns.
What was contained in it is they demand a complete end to the war on all fronts.
They want reparations.
They want sanctions relief.
They want an end to the U.S. blockade, and they want to control the Strait of Hormuz in perpetuity.
They want a new legal, formal mechanism where they will control the Strait and they will be able to charge a toll.
For them, this is non negotiable.
And as of today, they are saying they will not re engage with the United States for a second round of diplomacy unless those conditions are met.
So for them, it's a non starter if we don't agree to those.
And the United States will never agree.
So it looks like all signs are pointing toward a resumption of hostilities.
I've been saying it for a long time.
And we don't talk about Iran as much as we used to ever since I returned last week.
We just haven't covered it too much.
But for as long as I have been talking about it, I've said that's inevitably where this is going to go.
And it's difficult to forecast exactly which day and which week and exactly how long it's going to take.
But the two positions are irreconcilable, intractable.
And so the way this will be resolved is through military conflict.
It's not over yet.
The other big development in the war is a big piece from the New York Times today.
Get a load of this.
It says that Iran maintains access to 30 out of 33 of their missile launch platforms along the Strait of Hormuz.
Not only that, they maintain at least 70 to 75% of their pre war stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles.
They maintain access to 90% of their missile storage facilities.
In other words, we have not degraded their missile capability.
At all, in any meaningful way.
And if you recall conversations from the beginning of the year and shortly before the war started, that was actually the primary strategic objective in this conflict.
That is, you could argue, their other strategic capability aside from their nuclear program.
It is their massive stockpile of ballistic missiles.
So, ostensibly, Netanyahu came to the White House at the end of December in 2025 to persuade Trump to resume the war in order to eliminate or substantially degrade their ability to launch missiles.
That's why we did it.
And despite dropping, or rather, launching 15,000 airstrikes against Iran in the span of five or six weeks, We have really done zero damage.
On the other side of all that fighting, we have not put a dent in their missile stockpile.
We haven't touched their missile launch platforms at all, missile storage.
And what that means is that they will continue to be able to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
The missiles are what give them their check.
That's how they're able to attack the Gulf, that's how they're able to shut down the Strait.
So here we are, all these months, weeks into the war.
We want to get out.
Oil prices are starting to spiral out.
Control.
And yet it seems that even if we go back into the war, it's almost like we're back to square one.
It's almost like we're starting fresh all over again.
And the difference is our stockpile of missile interceptors has been degraded.
Our bases have been destroyed.
Our economy has been reeling.
Inflation has ticked up at the fastest rate since 2023.
So Iran is doing fine.
They seem to be okay.
They're locked in and they have their missiles.
They're ready for round two.
Even if we try to go back in, We'd be starting from scratch.
And if anything, we are far worse off after these two, two and a half months of fighting.
So we'll talk about all that.
We'll get into the war.
We're also going to talk about another pretty hilarious development.
Now, I wouldn't even be talking about it, but there's nothing else going on in the news.
So yesterday, some people said, We don't want to hear any more about this drama.
And I agree with you.
I don't want to talk more about drama, but it's a nice little epilogue.
So last night, I went off on Dan Bilzerian, who Last week, he accused me of being a Fed and insufficiently anti Semitic, among other things.
Come to find out, and guys, the Groyper curse is just too powerful now.
Sometimes I scare myself.
I'm so terrible, sometimes I even scare myself.
The Groyper curse is out of control.
He attacks me on a Thursday, and within four or five days, he is down 15% on PolyMarket.
And Kalshi in his odds to win his primary election.
His first campaign event, which he flew out to attend yesterday, the event was supposed to happen today.
It was canceled last night.
And we had people call the venue.
They said Bilzerian gave no reason.
And then here's the best part here's just the cherry on top, here's the icing.
Today, Dan Bilzerian admitted to being 12% Jewish.
Dan Bilzerian is a Jew.
He admits that he is literally a Jew.
So, the guy whose entire brand, his entire political program, his whole ideology, the only thing that he knows how to say is that he doesn't like Jews.
He doesn't like Jews.
He doesn't like Israel.
That's his whole timeline.
His whole Twitter timeline, his whole persona is going into people's replies and saying, It's the fucking Jews.
It's the fucking Jews.
He's Jewish.
He's been Jewish the whole time.
He's been lying about it.
You didn't want to mention that?
So think about the fork.
We talked about this last night.
There's a fork in the road between America First and the low IQ anti Semites.
He has riled up all the retards on the basis that the Groypers are not obsessed with Jews enough, not anti Jewish enough, etc.
At no point in time did he want to tell the retards that follow him he's 12% Jewish this entire time, not relevant information.
You know, there's a word for that it's called a lie by omission.
That's called a lie by omission.
If for two years you create a following saying our number one overriding objective is confronting all Jews, it's all of them, it's the fucking Jews, and you're Jewish, you know, that's kind of a problem.
That might be a bit of a problem.
So, to all of his fans, get the apology forms, print your apology forms.
Would you like a pen?
Excuse me, sir, would you like a pen for your apology form?
You could have gone on with this big charade that you're taking on Randy Fine.
It would have been good.
We had a good thing, you stupid bastard, but you and your pride.
I mean, seriously, it's literally poetic.
It's poetic justice.
So it's a Groyper curse.
So we'll talk all about that.
It's going to be a good show.
Before we get into it, I want to remind you to smash the follow button on Rumble, smash the like button, leave a comment, let me know what you think about the show.
Remember to check out our merch store at fuentes.store.
Check out our spring and summer collection.
A lot of cool stuff.
You want to support the show?
Subscribe at americafirst.plus.
$15 a month to get access to the archive every episode of the show.
$100 a month to get to be in the group chat with me.
I dropped like 45 minutes of bonus content in the group chat last night.
So I did the show, I went in the group chat, and then I literally did like another show just for the group chat.
Like I said, I think it was 30, 40 minutes of bonus content.
So check it out.
I also did a big collaboration this morning with Steven Crowder.
It's just, it's a lot of content, guys.
It's a lot of hard work.
I had to wake up at the crack of dawn.
I was up at 10 a.m. and late.
And I got to the studio at 10 30 a.m. to do the show.
And we had a vigorous debate about voting Democrat.
And it was an interesting debate.
I thought it was great.
It was a long stream.
That was a long stream.
It was about two and a half, three hours.
And I think it's on my channel.
It's definitely on his channel if you missed it.
And we got into all of it.
I mean, we opened up the debate.
And I like Stephen because I think he steelmans the Republican position.
Like, he does a good job of defending it.
And I think he's an honest guy.
Like, I don't think there's any pretense.
I don't feel like he's being evasive.
I feel like what he says is what he believes.
So he's a good faith interlocutor, quality discussion.
And I like the iron sharpens iron.
I like when two people can just go at it.
Pause.
I like when two people can just.
When two people can just debate it out and everybody's better off because we get to hear the best ideas.
Here's what I will say, though, and I think this is funny.
So I'm doing this debate with Steven Crowder, and I'm telling him, I'm like, Steven, there's no mass deportations.
We're in a war with Iran.
They didn't release the Epstein files, they want a $1.5 trillion budget for the military.
This administration's a complete disaster.
We got to try something else.
We got to burn it all down and we just have to create the opening, the possibility that we could get something fresh, an outsider, something that isn't a part of this corrupt, failing regime.
And it's literally every issue, it's all of these plan truster talking points.
And I don't say that in a disparaging way.
I hope he doesn't take that the wrong way.
But it really is every one of those things that you've heard from the Trump administration, from the pro Trump influencers.
On Iran.
Well, Trump always said we were going to war with Iran and he said no forever wars.
And it's like, do you really believe people voted for a regime change war in Iran?
They want to say, yeah, but Trump has been talking about Iran can't have a nuke since the 80s.
It's like, I think if he were up front in 24 that we were going to war with Iran for regime change, that would have changed the equation a little bit.
But so you get that one and then you get the net negative migration and You get all this kind of stuff, and you just go.
Then on the other side, so with Republicans, everything's terrific.
Everything is awesome.
Everything's exceptional.
Well, he always said we were going to war, and we are getting the deportations.
Actually, it's all great.
And then the other thing that they do on the opposite side, it's the inversion, is they say if the Democrats get in, they're going to make Puerto Rico a state.
And especially even then, the super chats and the live stream, obviously, Crowder's audience is going to be pro Crowder and like, They agree with him on supporting Trump and Republicans.
But you see that and you go, there is no hope for the Goyim.
The Goyim are cooked.
Maybe Richard Hanania was right.
It's like, this is how I stop worrying and learn to love our Jewish supremacist oligarchy because, and don't take that out of context.
I'm saying that that's hyperbolic.
I'm being, that's hyperbolic.
But you see stuff like that and you say, the Goyim are cooked.
The Goyim are not people.
Like, we don't have a chance.
We do not have a chance, you guys.
We're trying to explain how raped, how raped are Trump supporters and boomers?
You voted for mass deportations.
You voted for no new wars, golden age, Epstein files.
We don't get any of it at all.
They shut it down so fast.
They said we need to quick cut the corporate tax rate and cut Medicaid by $900 billion so that we can get $200 billion for mass deportations.
Well, we haven't gotten him yet because we need to hire the ICE agents.
Oh, now we have to shut it down because some lesbian died and some male nurse got shot in the face.
Oh, but we could do a war with Iran, no problem.
The mass deportations, that's too unpopular.
It's going to happen eventually.
They're coming eventually.
But war in Iran, that's imperative.
I don't care how high the gas prices get, I don't care how low my favorability gets.
War with Iran is absolutely the most important thing ever.
And I always said that.
And they cheer and they cheer and they love what they're getting.
They love the abuse.
They love it.
What do we do with this?
What are we supposed to do with this?
You know, and then I'm the asshole because then I say, we got to vote Democrat because fuck these people.
And then people go, you're a left wing tranny.
They make AI edits of me in like crop top and short shorts.
And they're like, you're just some Democrat faggot.
It's like, dude.
It's how could it get worse than this?
But anyway, so very frustrating morning on Steven Crowder.
Very, I don't know if you could tell, but I was just beside myself doing this debate, just having to contend with this.
We always wanted war with Iran.
No, we are getting mass deportations.
You know, well, we built some feet of border wall, dozens of feet of border wall.
Bro, it's 2,000 miles.
The border is 2,000 miles.
Bro said, well, we made, we, We build a few dozen feet of border wall.
I'm like, oh my gosh, bro.
There should have been a border wall like yesterday.
But that's politics.
Anyway, so that's that.
So if you want to watch that debate, it was an interesting exchange, even though it was a bit frustrating.
Check it out.
Like I said, I think we uploaded that on this channel, but it's also on his channel.
I do want to move on.
I want to get into this thing with Dan Bilzerian.
We talked all about it last night.
So, if you missed the show last night, I think that was a pretty must watch, important show.
And I talked a lot about this divergence.
There is a split in the Israel critical movement.
I think that clearly there is now a contingent of grifters and just all around low IQ people that have glommed onto the Israel issue and are really at this point saying nothing intelligent or useful or insightful about it.
As we all know, for a very long time, nobody was able to talk about Israel or the Jews in any kind of honest way or critical way or negative way.
Because of censorship, because of cancel culture, suppression, debanking, all these things that you're very aware of.
And in just the past few years, it's become very acceptable to talk about.
And you could say also it's become actually popular, it's trendy to talk about.
And I think this has created this perverse incentive where now a lot of really unremarkable, unintelligent, uninsightful people are just meeting a market demand.
They're just pumping out as much.
Anti Israel content as the market will consume.
And typically, this takes the form of very repetitive, very overly simplified, very base kinds of sentiment.
It's people every day saying, fuck Israel, it's the Jews, Israel sucks.
We've heard this every day, all day for like three years.
And there's a contingent of people that I don't even know that they really even care about the issue, know that much about, or even understand the issue on a deep level.
But at this point, it has just become something like a cottage industry.
And that is just a self reinforcing loop that a lot of people are stuck on, which is this is what we tweet, this is what gets the engagement.
And so that's what we'll do tomorrow and the day after that.
And this is the path to some kind of political change or political victory.
And I think we need to step outside of that.
I think that that has basically run its course.
And I think now there are just simply diminishing returns.
I think that a lot of the anti Israel or anti Jewish stuff, let's be honest, I think it's on its way out.
I think it has become passe.
I think people are tired of it.
It's become stale and it's become a drag.
Now, don't misunderstand what I mean when I say that.
I'm not saying it is no longer true, and I'm not saying it's no longer worth talking about.
And I'm not saying that it's no longer a central issue and arguably the most important issue.
I'm not saying any of that.
But what I am saying is that, like anything, every political tactic has a shelf life.
And every fad and every trend has a shelf life before inevitably people become disinterested, apathetic.
They're ready for something different.
And so, what I'm saying is not that we need to stop talking about the issue, but that we need to be dynamic as opposed to static.
And so, instead of the same very simple message, Which never is refined, never is recapitulated in a new or interesting way.
Instead of, in other words, every day it's just fuck Israel, fuck Israel, fuck it's them, it's the Jews.
We need to find interesting ways to talk about it.
We need new things to say about it.
And I think the best way to do that is to simply become interested, genuinely interested in the subject matter.
So, for example, when we talk about the Middle East, we're not still talking about the liberty every day and 9 11.
We're talking about the unfolding conflict in real time.
And we're talking about the grand strategy doctrine of each country involved.
And we're talking about how the war is being fought and we're forecasting how it might develop in the future.
These are ways that we can remain dynamic.
These are ways that we can, in my opinion, keep it fresh and keep it moving, keep it progressive, moving forward, as opposed to spinning our wheels, saying the same thing for increasingly less engagement as everybody sort of moves on, as people sort of recognize and say, okay, we've heard this before, we got it, we got the message, and now we're kind of over that.
That was fresh and outrageous and novel, let's say maybe a year, two years ago.
And now we all sort of get the point.
So I said this last night.
I think there is a meaningful opportunity here to actually separate and create a foil and say, yeah, there is a cast of characters that does not seem to want to evolve beyond a very base and arguably toxic, counterproductive obsession with this issue.
And we want to maintain that the issue is important.
But put it in the context of a much more positive, bigger picture program for the country.
Anyway, that was the gist of the show last night.
And all of this came in response to an attack by Dan Bilzerian last week.
He was very frustrated that I'm not talking about Jews enough.
I didn't blame the Jews for killing Charlie Kirk, I didn't blame the Jews for ICE killing those protesters.
I am backing a Jewish Democrat in Ohio.
Jew, Jew, Jew, that's really the issue that he has with me.
And so we've been in a feud for the past four or five days, and it's been this battle on Twitter.
The Groypers are routing this guy and everything.
Well, the big development comes this morning when come to find out, and this was, I don't know, did people know this?
Was this a shock to everybody?
But we come to find out this morning that Dan Bilzerian, the fuck Israel guy, the it's the Jews guy, the give me a gun, I want to go exterminate Israel guy.
The guy for whom I was not anti Semitic enough, he himself, Dan Bilzerian, is Jewish.
I didn't know that.
I don't think anybody knew that.
Somebody found a book he wrote 10 years ago where he claims in his book that he is part Jewish.
He was confronted about it all day, and finally he admitted and said, Well, I'm 12% Jewish.
That's not really Jewish.
And I'll pull up the tweet and I'll show you.
This is on Twitter.
This was the exchange today.
So he tweeted Randy Fine just said he's willing to stop aid to Israel.
He's obviously lying, but the pressure is getting to him.
Congress has no accountability.
Politicians who knowingly lie to the public, interesting, should face criminal penalties.
The Jewish shadow ban censorship continues because I guess he didn't get enough engagement on that one.
Groibcor replied, You're censoring yourself?
And he points to this book written by Dan Bilzerian, where he writes Mel had been roasted in the media for popping off to some cop about Jews, and everyone went crazy.
I'm part Jewish, and it didn't bother me.
He told everyone to get fucked and made a half billion dollars on his Passion of the Christ movie, and I respected that.
Kind of like when I heard Denzel Washington bought all the black guys on the set jackets and didn't get the white guys anything.
I thought that was funny.
I didn't even read that part.
Yeah, that's hilarious.
Take that, white guys.
No jagged for you.
He says, I never got offended by shit like that.
I could care less what your beliefs are as long as you're honest and upfront about it.
I'm part Jewish.
It didn't bother me, he says.
So, Groibkor says, You're censoring yourself.
Dan Bilzerian says, 12% doesn't make you a Jew.
Fuentes is a Sephardic Jew name, though.
I said, No fucking way.
Dude, you got to just like frame this.
This is just like Hall of Fame.
It's just beyond parody.
Does it get better than that?
This is the guy, his only message for two years is it's the Jews, it's the Jews, Jew, Jew, Jew.
You don't, he literally texted me.
He said, You didn't talk about Jews enough on Tucker and Jack Neal.
I said, Bro, I did talk about it with both of them.
He said, Yeah, but you didn't talk about it enough.
I said, Am I supposed to, the whole interview, every interview, the entire interview and every show is supposed to be about that?
And by the way, yeah, that does make you Jewish, actually.
If you're 12% Jewish, yeah, you're Jewish.
What do you think this is, anyhow?
And by the way, that's your entire shtick, is it not?
He just got done attacking Dave Smith and saying that Dave Smith is a token Jew who is deployed to say an acceptable criticism of Israel.
It's like, dude, you're Jewish too.
That's crazy.
And when I say this, I hope you understand, I'm only using his own standard against him.
Here I am with actually a reasonable position and saying, yes, we have an issue with organized Jewry and with Zionism and the rest of it, but let's be sophisticated about it.
Let's understand the nuances and the depth of the issue.
Let's put it into the context of other issues that are happening, which is a great power struggle in the world and in the country.
It is this guy and this whole collection of idiots, their insistence is there are no other issues.
This is the only issue.
There is no right and left.
There is no Christian and Muslim.
There is, it's only just anti Jewish.
And the guy who's supposedly going to take my place and lead the charge with that ideology, well, he happens to be a member of the tribe himself.
I mean, that's just a little bit ironic.
It's a little bit hypocritical, let's say.
It's interesting.
So I saw that this morning.
I could not believe that.
And to all of the people, by the way, If you doubted me for a second, for a second, everybody that talked trash, everybody that went knives out, did you see how it got on Thursday?
Every one of these people, fuck you forever, forever.
How absolutely dare you, how dare you come for my throne?
Are you kidding me?
Now, fortunately, I've been through this.
Over and over and over again.
So it didn't even phase me.
That's not even in the top 10 issues I'm dealing with right now.
I'm not even thinking about that at all.
I didn't do a show on Friday because I said it's not even worth it.
But did you see how it was on Thursday?
Did you see how quickly everybody switched up on me?
How they all came together, the pile on, the coordination, and they were already celebrating.
They were already congratulating themselves.
He's finished.
He's dead.
It's over.
The Groypers are finished.
Dan was the one person that couldn't call him a gay fed.
Whoa, we never heard that one before.
He's been called a gay fed six million times.
Dan was the one person who couldn't say that.
And man, they went in.
It was the Ides of March, and it happens all the time.
I can't trust anybody.
It happens all the time.
They all went in licking their chops.
Vulture circling overhead.
Here we go.
The downfall of Nick Fuentes and his Groypers.
Say it isn't so.
How quickly did that fall apart, fucktard?
How quickly did your little mutiny, your little coup, how quickly did that all come apart?
How long did that take?
72 hours?
You have no support?
And by the way, I'll remember that Hodge twins.
I remember that Hodge twins.
And I remember that everybody.
I mean, Jake Shields, you're dead to me.
The coal burner comedian, I didn't even know she existed.
I had her muted.
Dan Bilzerian, you're done.
Clearly.
The anti Jew guy running against Randy Finey's 12% Jewish, you're finished.
You're fucking finished.
You're nothing.
But these other people, very few, but there were some people that surprised me.
I will not forget that.
I will not forget that.
I will not forget who sat on the fence.
I will not forget who did another, it's a both sides issue.
I will not forget that.
So, just another week at the office.
Just another, just another all out attack.
When will it end?
Just another all out attack on a random Thursday.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Opening up a new journal entry, just another day.
Are you ready for your all out attack?
Are you ready for an all out mutiny, an all out conspiracy to assassinate your reputation?
What is it?
Is it another Thursday?
Another day that ends in Y?
Full moon again?
For crying out loud, when will you give me the benefit of the doubt?
But you did.
I mean, for the most part, people did.
The good news is almost everybody had my back.
That's the good news.
And I appreciate everybody that did.
And it shows a lot of integrity.
Even guys like Howling Mutant, Adam Green, who I don't always even agree with, Andrew Wilson, I know he's got disagreements with me.
These are all guys that said, nah, this is ridiculous.
And I appreciate James Fishback not taking the bait.
And I appreciate JF Garipe and Richard Spencer.
And I appreciate Politically Provoked and everybody that Asmund Gold, Sam Hyde, Everybody that came out vocally in my defense, Tenrio, Beardson, the Groypers, really do appreciate it.
It's difficult.
I know it's hard rooting for the anti hero.
As Taylor Swift said, it must be exhausting always rooting for the anti hero, but I do appreciate the support.
When will it end, right?
Thursday, it's another day.
They say Nick Fuentes is dead.
He's dead.
It's over.
It's finished.
Everyone agrees.
He's a Fed.
Everyone agrees.
He's a complete piece of shit.
It's over for him.
We're taking charge.
Amy Dangerfield, Jade Shields, and Dan Bilzerian.
What a crew.
Amy Dangerfield has pronounced the Groypers dead.
What will we do?
How will we recover?
Amy Dangerfield, Numb Nuts, and Dan Bilzerian say it's over.
Just give it four days.
Give it four days.
We'll find out what's going on.
One of them can't run a live stream.
They got no audio output on the live stream.
The rally's canceled.
You're 12% Jewish.
Numb Nuts is still playing with crayons.
Numb Nuts is still playing with his Hot Wheels cars or something.
So, yeah, fuck you.
Fuck you.
Fuck you.
All of you.
Every one of you that was a part of that.
Because here's the thing, and this last thing I'll say, then we'll move on.
It's like, you know, in the moment, It's like a mob mentality.
In the moment on Thursday, which was not long ago, see, now you see how quickly things move and how quickly people move on.
On Thursday, that was the people are texting me, like, I'm sorry this is happening.
Oh my gosh, this is actually a good thing, blah, blah, blah.
But it's like on Thursday, it was like a mob mentality.
It's like, kill this man.
We're all coming after this guy today.
And everybody's getting pressured to join the pile on.
And you give it three days and you see what's really going on there.
And you go, wow, that's what people are capable of, huh?
And I know these people.
You know, Jake Shields, how many times have I forgiven this guy?
How many times has Jake Shields, with his deep seated resentment, been sneak dissing me on the timeline?
We get in a fight, I forgive him.
We get in a fight, I forgive him.
We get in a fight, I let it go.
You know, I go on his podcast after.
He's done nothing but talk trash about me, done nothing but undermine me.
I go on his podcast regardless.
That does nothing for me.
And then he's right there with his homie, Dan.
And same thing with Dan.
How many times have I walked you through it, dumbass?
How many times have I gotten on the call, texted you, walked you through, explained myself, my positions, helped you, given you advice?
I've been to your house.
And look at how they do your guy.
Look at how they treat me.
Crazy.
So, anyway.
But it's like I said on Twitter.
Mars is in Aries.
It's a time of war.
And it's a time of war.
This is how it goes.
But anyway, so that's that.
I don't want to spend too much.
People say I'm playing the victim, but it really is outrageous.
And by the way, it does come with like, and I know you sense this, I'm sure you do.
There is this deep frustration with our lot here.
I'm trying, you guys.
I'm really trying.
And I'm trying.
And we're all trying.
We are all doing our part to advance America first.
And what you tend to find is that it's our own people that can't get out of their own way.
That's the worst part.
We're all trying so hard.
We're all playing our part.
We're all doing our best to deepen our understanding of the issues, to deepen our understanding of how power works and how we're going to be proactive and effective in the world.
We're all trying.
And what you find time and again is that we are our own worst enemy.
It's our own side.
It's not Laura Loomer.
It's not Mark Levin.
It's not even Israel.
It's people that ostensibly are supposed to all agree on one thing.
On a common enemy pointed in one direction that just cannot make it happen, cannot get it together.
And unfortunately, we have to be ruthless with these people.
You can't prevent that.
You can't help it.
It's a fact.
And you have to be ruthless about it.
But it's sad that it has to be that way.
You know, you're going against Randy Fine.
Here's a good idea let's divide the Israel critical movement by launching an all out attack on Nick Fuentes.
It's like, what are we doing?
You want to run against Randy Fine?
Okay, do it.
Just focus on that.
You know, anyway.
So, so yeah, so it turns out he's a Jew.
I wonder how his crowd is going to take that.
How are they going to reconcile that one, huh?
The guy that's going around calling everybody a Fed, he endorsed a Jew.
And dude, you're a Jew.
If I endorse you, I'd be endorsing a Jew for Congress.
How do you reconcile that even with your own statements?
So, anyway, but enough about him.
Now that's done.
That's done.
Stick a fork in him.
He's pasta.
He's cooked.
It's over.
Forget it.
We can turn the page on, you know, Jake Shields, Dan Bilzerian.
You are out.
You are done.
You don't recover from that.
Fuck you.
Turning the page on that.
We're going to move on.
We're going to get into the situation in Iran.
We're going to get into a little bit of the news here because it's been a minute since we actually covered the war.
And I was going to talk about it last night.
We ran out of time.
We got into all this intramural drama.
So I want to get into the war in Iran and the latest.
And there's not a ton that is actually happening.
Anywhere at all, and not even in the war.
There is this attempt by the Trump administration to once again jumpstart diplomacy between Iran and the United States, but it just isn't working.
And Trump is constantly saying from the White House and on True Social and in these press pools, he is representing to us that we are on the precipice of a diplomatic breakthrough, that a deal is within reach, that diplomacy is in advanced stages, that Iran is begging us for a deal.
This has been the chorus.
For the past two and a half months, literally since the war started, this has been the statement Iran is begging us for peace.
They want it more than you even know.
We have a deal ready, and so on.
It has not been true at any point in time, not last year, not before the war, not at any point during the war.
And it isn't true now.
As recently as last week, Trump championed and triumphed this idea that a deal is within reach.
Well, on Sunday, Iran finally responded to the latest U.S. proposal to end the conflict and re engage in a second round of negotiations for the next 30 days.
And Iran basically said, We do not agree to any of your conditions.
We want an end to the war on all fronts.
We want reparations.
We want to control the strait.
And we want an immediate end to the blockade.
To which the Trump administration replied, Absolutely not.
And this is a story from Axios about this.
It says, quote, President Trump told Axios in a short phone call on Sunday that he would reject Iran's response to the latest draft agreement to end the war.
The U.S. waited 10 days for the Iranian response, which came on Sunday.
The White House hoped Iran's positions would show further progress toward a deal, but Trump's initial reaction signals the opposite.
He said, quote, I don't like their letter, it's inappropriate.
I don't like their response.
They've been tapping along many nations for 47 years.
In a post on True Social after the call, Trump said the Iranian response was totally unacceptable.
The Tasnim news agency affiliated with the IRGC reported that Iran's text stresses the necessity of lifting U.S. sanctions, ending the war on all fronts, and ensuring Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report, Iran demanded an immediate end to the U.S. naval blockade upon the signing of the agreement.
The response maintains the proposed format of an initial memorandum of understanding, followed by 30 days of negotiations.
But insists on lifting U.S. sanctions related to Iranian oil sales during that 30 day window.
Iran also demanded the release of frozen assets upon the initial signing of the MOU.
So, now if you've been following this peace process from the beginning, you understand that Iran's position has literally never changed.
The Trump administration's position has literally never changed from the beginning.
And by the beginning, I mean last year.
Last year, straight through April, May, and into Rising Lion in June, the Trump administration's demands were zero enrichment, forfeit your highly enriched uranium, missile moratorium, stop funding the proxies.
That was also their demand in February, just before this war started.
And as they have engaged Iran in diplomacy since then, this has been their offer still no enrichment, hand over the highly enriched uranium, open up the Strait of Hormuz now, since the war has started and Iran has closed the Strait.
And that has been the U.S. position.
In spite of Trump's insistence that Iran is begging us for a deal or making big concessions, Iran has always responded by saying, We're not giving up enrichment.
We're not agreeing to restrictions on missiles and proxies.
We will open up the strait, but we will control it and charge money on it.
We want a lifting of U.S. sanctions.
We want reparations for the fighting.
And we want an end to the war on all fronts.
And that means in Lebanon as well as.
In the Persian Gulf theater.
And this has been the impasse from the beginning.
And they center on those two big issues.
I believe we talked about this on Thursday.
The two central issues in the beginning, it was only one issue enrichment and centrifuges.
Centrifuges enrich uranium.
Since this war has started, it is now the nuclear enrichment issue, and now it is also the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
It is these two issues which are completely intractable.
These are at the center of the impasse, and neither side is ever going to come off of those positions.
And let's elaborate on them specifically.
The Trump administration says realistically, we can't leave the fight unless we recover Iran's highly enriched uranium and they agree to zero enrichment on some timeline.
We cannot leave the conflict until Iran agrees to that.
Because if we leave the conflict without that, then Iran reestablishes deterrence.
And by that, I mean they have imposed a very high cost on attacking Iran, such a high cost.
That not only the United States, but no other country in the world is going to want to see another fight in the Persian Gulf.
How did they do that?
When the United States attacked them, they closed the Persian Gulf and they turned it into an energy war.
They created an energy shock, which affects prices and the economy across the entire globe.
And because they demonstrated their ability, their resilient and durable capability to do this, in other words, no matter how hard you hit them, they're going to be able to play that card.
Now, that is going to deter any return.
To fighting.
If the United States wants to go back into Iran to fight another war, you're going to lose our allies in the Indo Pacific.
You're going to lose Europe.
You're going to lose the election in the United States because everybody worldwide is going to say it's not worth it.
In the Indo Pacific, they are going to say, not so fast.
That's where we get all of our oil.
We can't do that again.
Europe will say the same.
We get our LNG from Qatar and it affects the prices regardless.
The American public will say, we don't want $6 gas again.
We can't do that.
So, Iran has reimposed deterrence.
They've imposed a very high cost on intervention, and they've demonstrated that they have this ability to impose that cost, really regardless of what we do to them or what we're willing to do to them.
So, why does that mean we can't leave the conflict?
Well, if we leave, then we're out, and it will not be easy to go back in.
Iran knows that.
So, if they've imposed a very high cost on re entry and re engaging in a fight, then what that does is it gives them the ability.
To dig up their nuclear program.
So, what do you think they're going to get to work doing the second the fighting ends and the United States is out?
They're going to dig up their highly enriched uranium, they're going to fire up the centrifuges, and they're going to continue to make more weapons grade uranium for a bomb.
Or at least, at least that is what decision makers in Washington must assume because they can do that.
And so, let's say we get some kind of a ceasefire, a truce, some kind of lasting peace, a longer term ceasefire.
You're going to have to assume they're going to restart the nuclear program.
And if you try to, it's not so simple as, well, then we'll hit them again.
If you go and hit the uranium again, if you go and hit their stockpile, you go and hit the centrifuges again, Iran will shut down the strait and it's back to square one.
So the United States realistically cannot walk away without some commitment, even in principle, even in spirit, that Iran will forfeit their existing stockpile, 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, and that there will be some moratorium on nuclear enrichment in the future.
Well, why do they have highly enriched uranium in the first place?
It's a deterrent against Israeli and U.S. intervention.
We've talked about this repeatedly.
They're engaging in nuclear hedging.
They don't want a nuclear arsenal because if they acquire one or make a race to acquire one, it will invite U.S. aggression.
So they maintain something resembling a nuclear program, nuclear weapons program, that is just shy of anything that would alarm the United States enough for them to intervene, but it's also advanced enough.
That if the United States did intervene, they could accelerate its progress, make a bomb, and deter the United States from some kind of existential attack on Iran.
Well, in case you haven't noticed, the US and Israel have been attacking Iran for years now.
Israel has provoked Iran in April 2024, July 2024, June 2025, and then with their joint operation with the United States in February of this year.
In other words, we have made Iran's worst nightmare.
A reality.
Their worst fear and anxiety has been realized.
We've actualized that risk.
Now, the United States tried to obliterate the Iranian regime.
It was a matter of survival.
We killed their supreme leader, we killed half of their military and political elites.
We tried to topple their country.
That's existential, meaning relating to the existence of the regime.
We have vindicated their fear that we have always been pursuing that and that we are willing and able to try.
So, if we end the conflict, they will not be satisfied with their conventional missile arsenal.
They won't be satisfied with their Strait of Hormuz closure because they might imagine that the next time the United States comes back, the next time they take a crack at it, maybe it's a ground invasion.
Maybe it goes nuclear.
Maybe there's some kind of subversive intelligence operation to overthrow Iran from the inside.
So, Iran cannot give up its nuclear hedge after all this, especially.
They can't give it up.
So that's an impasse.
It's intractable, irreconcilable.
It will never be bridged.
The U.S. can't walk away without no enrichment.
Iran cannot give away enrichment.
Number two is the Strait of Hormuz.
And that's basically the same thing.
The United States cannot let Iran control the Strait of Hormuz.
Why?
Because if Iran controls the Strait, if we cede it, one huge strategic defeat for the United States.
We bombed them 15,000, 20,000 times, killed their leader, sank their navy.
Hit them with everything we got, and they're better off.
They have more territory.
They increase their power.
They now expand their control over a vital waterway in the world.
They went from controlling 4% of the world's oil exports from their own domestic supply to controlling 20% of the world's oil trade because they closed the strait and all the oil that goes through it.
So, one strategic disaster to try to destroy a country and they come out significantly better, but also.
If we seed that, then it becomes formal, official, legal.
Iran controls the Strait.
They are enriched off of it.
So that's effectively your reparations.
They grow stronger because of it.
It funds the rebuilding of their arsenal and their country.
But beyond that, it solidifies Iran's ability to close the strait.
They will be able to control the actual passageways where the ships are going to cross, where they actually transit.
The IRGC will be patrolling it.
They will have consolidated and solidified their control over it so that in the future, they can more easily close the strait when necessary.
And again, if we want to leave and come back, we're going to be worried about rebuilding the nukes, rebuilding the missiles, and the reimposition of a blockade of the Strait.
So we can't give it up for those reasons.
But the inverse is also true.
If Iran does not control the Strait, then there's a possibility that during peacetime, maybe the United States makes it so that Iran cannot take control of the Strait in the future.
If Iran gives up, Control over it, and there's a return to freedom of navigation.
Who's to say the United States doesn't put its navy there to prevent Iran from choking it off the next time?
And then that takes away their leverage.
That takes away that deterrent threat that they're going to shut down the global economy, which actually puts pressure not only on America, but on all of America's allies and trading partners, critically in the Indo Pacific, but also in Europe, and I would say also the Arabian Peninsula.
So those are two issues.
The United States is beating our head against the wall, saying no enrichment.
Fork over the highly enriched uranium and freedom of navigation in the strait.
Iran is saying absolutely not.
Our right to enrich is as sacred as our sovereignty itself.
They equate enrichment with sovereignty because it's the guarantor of their sovereignty over their soil.
And we're going to control the strait and we're going to make money off of it because that's the only thing that's keeping us safe.
And so, as long as the United States sees those as non starters and vice versa for Iran, Then there's never going to be a deal.
We're not walking away giving them the straight and letting them keep their nuclear program.
And they're never giving up those things.
So, what does that mean?
Well, it means this is still going to be resolved militarily.
Iran still believes that they can hold out.
They still believe that even if the United States attacks them again, it will be ineffective.
Why?
Because the regime is durable, so it will survive.
And their ability to close the straight and attack the Arabian Peninsula will be intact.
Because they still have access to their missile launch platforms, missile stockpiles, and actually have 75% of their pre war missile stock, even in terms of volume.
So Iran thinks they're going to survive, they're going to maintain these capabilities, and so they can make it a war of attrition and perpetuity, which will eventually create so much economic pressure on America and the world that it will force us out of the conflict.
There'll be no other way.
Conversely, the United States is in denial.
And we still think that because of our overwhelming military power, because of our air and sea superiority, that if we just keep hitting, if we just do more, widen the war, deepen the war, escalate the war, that eventually we will drop enough bombs to compel Iran, even to just give us something symbolic, so that we can regain our strength and come back again another day.
But I would say so let's just say that in the near future, there's going to be a resumption of hostilities.
If Iran doesn't want to make a deal, And the US doesn't want to make a deal, then what happens?
Well, there's a countdown timer.
People think that this can go on in perpetuity.
Iran has closed the strait.
We've imposed a blockade on their commercial shipping in the strait.
We're not attacking them all the time.
There seems to be some misunderstandings, claims about drone attacks.
We hit them with a love tap last week.
But by and large, the fighting has, generally speaking, stopped.
So you might say, well, what would prevent us from maintaining this as the status quo at a low boil indefinitely?
Well, one, you have effectively.
Close the shipping in the Strait.
So there's enormous pressure on energy, which is going to force us to act one way or the other.
If oil remains constricted, if that oil remains stuck in the Persian Gulf, there's huge economic pressure on all the players in the global economy.
So we're either going to have to make a decision to solve it or to walk away.
That's the biggest thing.
So there's no scenario where this just goes on and on and on.
On the other side, the United States thinks that Iran is eventually going to collapse.
That the blockade we have imposed on their ports is eventually going to inflict so much economic pain on Iran that they're going to have to make a decision.
Although U.S. military planners say that Iran is dug in and it's not even going to matter for them for months.
Here's the other significant countdown timer.
Let's say that we find a way to keep oil prices stable indefinitely.
And let's say Iran is hurting badly by this as well.
The other big countdown timer is that we have to assume.
That, as long as we are not engaging Iran militarily, they are regaining strength.
They're building more missiles, building more drones.
And again, that was actually the original Casas Belli going back to December.
We have to engage Iran to destroy their missile stockpile.
And specifically, Netanyahu made the case and said every month Iran is building 300 more ballistic missiles.
So you might think we could do this for another two or three months.
Well, just do the math.
Israel and the United States have to assume that as long as we are not actively bombing them all the time, disrupting them, disrupting their communications and logistics, they're digging up everything that we've already hit.
They're rebuilding everything we've already destroyed, and they're resetting again for that next confrontation.
In the meantime, we are out of supplies.
We are out of interceptors, running low on them.
Our bases have been damaged beyond repair in the Middle East.
Allegedly, Iranian fighter jets were bombing U.S. bases in Kuwait and elsewhere in the Gulf, inflicting tens of billions of dollars in damage and rendering most of the infrastructure inoperable.
Not like they got hit a little bit and they put out the fire.
They've rendered most of the infrastructure in about nine bases completely destroyed.
Tens of billions of dollars in damage that's not easily going to be repaired.
So there is the sense of urgency that we either need to bring them to the table and make a deal immediately or we have to bomb them again really hard.
So it looks like there's going to be a resumption of hostilities.
But again, when that war starts, what does that look like?
Well, there's a new report today in the New York Times, and it talks specifically about the missiles.
And what it says is very shocking.
Contrary to what we had been told by the White House, which is that we have decimated Iran's military, we sank their navy, we've destroyed all their missiles, I believe a claim was made in the early stages of the war that we had destroyed 75% of their missile launch platforms.
They gave the impression, they represented to us that almost all the missiles were destroyed.
And there was just these little stockpiles left that we needed to worry about.
And that was it.
Well, there's a shocking new piece from the Times with sources in the Intel community that say it's the opposite.
Actually, Iran maintains access to 30 out of 33 of their missile launch platforms along the coast of the Strait of Hormuz.
It means they have almost everything they need to keep the Strait closed indefinitely.
What else does that mean?
It means we hit them 15,000 times, we took three out of 33.
Of their missile launch platforms offline.
Everything else was either intact or repaired, but it had virtually no effect.
They maintained 75% of their pre war missile stockpile, so that's just volume.
And nationwide, they maintain access to almost all of their missile storage facilities.
And this is the article.
We'll read through some of it.
It says The Trump administration's public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with the U.S. intelligence agencies.
Are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month, which show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers, and underground facilities.
Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 out of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which is what is threatening American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.
People with knowledge of these assessments said they show.
To varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites, that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations.
In some cases, they can launch missiles directly from launch pads that are part of the facilities.
Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to these assessments.
Iran still fields about 70% of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70% of its pre war missile stockpile, according to the same assessment.
Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams, including satellite imagery and surveillance, that Iran has regained access to 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be partially or fully operational.
The new intelligence suggests that Mr. Trump and his military advisors overestimated the damage that the U.S. military could inflict on Iranian missile sites and underestimated Iran's resilience and ability to bounce back.
The New York Times reported last month that U.S. officials believed Iran could regain as much as 70% of its pre war missile arsenal.
The Washington Post reported on U.S. intelligence showing that Iran retained about 75% of its mobile missile launchers and 70% of its pre war missile stockpile.
So, what this means is that we did everything that we could realistically do we dropped bunker busters, we had air superiority over the western half of the country.
We had a joint operation with Israel.
We had three aircraft carriers in the region at one point in time, although not during the fighting.
And yet, we did not put a dent.
We didn't even take out half of it.
Forget about we took out all of it or most of it.
We didn't even take out half of it.
We didn't even take out a quarter of their missiles after doing everything.
So, if we go back into the fight, here's the question how are we actually going to win?
We tried it.
We hit him with everything we got.
And then we punched ourselves out and recused ourselves from the fighting, even though they were in violation of their own ceasefire agreement.
We unilaterally ended our offensive against them because of how much it was hurting us.
Come to find out, all these weeks later, we didn't do anything.
And people say, well, we destroyed their navy.
Iran is not a naval power.
And it isn't World War II.
They don't need actually to field a blue water navy to be powerful.
They have these defensive capabilities which create this asymmetry.
It is the low cost, cheap, mobile systems, drones, missiles, speedboats, mines.
These things are cheap, mobile.
They're much more easily built and cheaply built and fielded than the systems that destroy or neutralize those systems.
And so, as long as they have that, they're good.
So, let's say we go back in and we bomb Iran.
They have all their missiles.
That means.
They're going to restart their attacks on Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Emirates, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, U.S. bases in northern Iraq, Jordan, elsewhere, and the Strait.
It all starts all over again.
And what are we able to meaningfully do to Iran that we haven't already done?
What are we going to do?
We've already attacked the regime.
We've already attacked the military.
We tried to hit the missiles, it didn't work.
They're still intact.
So the option is we attack their civilian infrastructure.
Well, Iran still has all their missiles.
It's going to cut both ways.
We attack their power plants.
They attack the power plants in Saudi Arabia.
We attack their oil.
They attack Saudi Aramco.
We attack their Karg Island, their bridges, tunnels, whatever.
They attack desalination.
They attack hotels, airports, everything in the Gulf.
It's all on the table.
There is no winning scenario here.
It just isn't possible.
Iran has all the cards, all the leverage.
They're not willing to negotiate, and there's nothing we could do to compel them to do that.
There's nothing that we could do short of something that would be a Pyrrhic victory.
We could go in and, like I said, bomb their civilian infrastructure.
That might be the last card that we can play.
What happens immediately after?
Iranian missiles rain down on all those Gulf countries, and the global economy is destroyed.
And even if you wanted regime change in Iran, it's just going to turn into a failed state.
It maybe creates more problems.
Than we had at the beginning when you had this Islamic revolutionary regime in control of Iran.
There's nothing that can be done here.
And I debated this with Steven Crowder this morning.
He said, Well, what if I think that it's good for us to weaken Iran?
I said, We can't.
It's outside the question.
Iran is a sovereign state and it's meaningful because Iran has a real military, Iran has a huge population, huge territory, and they have been preparing for this fight for decades.
So, yeah, you can maintain complete operational freedom over the skies of Syria because this is a small country with a small population and they don't have the same capabilities.
Assad is weak, and half the country didn't even belong to him at one time.
Because we invaded with 300,000 ground troops in the coalition.
But you say, well, we've got to weaken Iran.
You can't.
You attack Iran.
To do regime change or attack their nuclear sites or whatever, and they're going to race to a bomb.
They're going to build their missiles.
If you want to go in decisively, there's no way to win short of a ground war, a nuclear war.
Arguably, even a ground war wouldn't be sufficient, I think.
And the casualties would be in the tens of thousands.
So, this is an unstoppable force versus an immovable object.
This is the limit of hard U.S. power.
It's the same situation, or not the same, but similar with Russia and Ukraine.
You know, you might say, well, Russia has a much bigger population and a much bigger.
Productive economy.
Russia is still a factory for tanks and artillery and ammunition and so on.
But at the end of the day, if Ukraine has these dug in defensive lines and drones and U.S. intelligence and Starlink and the rest of it, they're just not going to be able to throw enough men and ammunition and so on to change the outcome.
It's similar here.
Checkmate.
If we can't destroy all the missiles, then they can continue to shut down the Strait and attack the Gulf.
And that is going to be ruinous to our economy.
And we know that.
And we can't destroy the missiles, as evidenced by this report.
We did everything we could, and it's not going to work.
So, where does that leave us?
Well, again, the only possible way out of this is some negotiated settlement where we might be able to get Iran to agree to have some limitations and restrictions on nuclear enrichment.
And we're going to have to give them control over the Strait.
And maybe we can get them to give us a better deal if we can do more for them, maybe not in the way of concessions in the conventional way, but if we can convince them that we, and more importantly, Israel, will not attack them ever again.
That's our only hope to walk away from this, get Israel to relax.
We have to restrain them, we have to put them in their place.
And then we can pursue some kind of collective security agreement, some kind of rapport, rapprochement with Iran.
And have some kind of a deal where Iran becomes a nation among other nations.
Short of that, this is going to get us all killed.
It's not going to end well.
That's where, and I failed to see how it could go any other way.
Like I said, you have to believe in the logic.
These are not, this is not wish casting.
It's not a hunch.
It's not a gut feeling.
It's not a guess.
This is the logic of how conflict works.
So, this is not me saying I feel like it's going to go this way.
That's sort of the only way it can go at this point.
We can't accept anything less.
Than a better deal than the JCPOA.
We can't walk away giving them the straight and letting them keep nuclear enrichment.
They can't give those things up.
The war can't go on forever like this because of oil and the possibility they'll rebuild their missiles.
So it puts all of us on a collision course and with a short timeline.
And when that happens, what are we going to do that we haven't already done to change their capabilities?
Can't.
I don't see it.
Unless they're getting really creative, unless they're cooking something up that we've never seen before.
And presumably they're thinking about these problems.
You know, these are things, these are the things we can't know, is what the military planners have in mind.
But short of something totally unpredictable, out of left field, real gamble, real Hail Mary, I failed to see how we're going to neutralize Iran.
And something's got to give here.
And I see the United States in a far weaker position.
This is why it was a mistake to ever get involved.
People said last year, we're going to hit him.
It's a one and done.
No, but it doesn't work that way.
It never does.
Biden kept us out of this war.
Israel tried to bait us into a war with Iran twice, and Biden kept us out.
It is Trump that took Netanyahu's hand and let him walk us down the path, ultimately to a cataclysmic regime change confrontation, which is what we're in now, and there's no easy way out.
So I told you, I told you it was going to bring us to war.
I told you it was going to be impossible to get out.
I told you last year after Midnight Hammer, I said, We'll be back 100%, take it to the bank.
We are coming back eventually and sooner rather than later because that's going to be the pitch.
That's going to, diplomacy was scuttled.
It's, Completely off the table after we had surprised attack them.
And if there's no diplomacy, Israel will be pressuring us, telling us they're building their missiles, they're digging up the uranium, and it's going to create that pressure for us to come back.
We did.
They closed the strait.
We're never going to be able to destroy all the missiles.
Where does that leave us?
No good options.
So that's the situation in Iran.
But we're going to move on.
We're going to take a look at our super chats.
We'll see what you guys have to say about all that.
Like I said, pretty boring, slow day.
Not a lot really even to discuss.
I don't know if you guys are sick of Iran by now.
I am.
Some of you guys like it, and some of you guys like the analysis.
But look, I mean, we're in this stuck situation.
Not much has changed.
So, we can only go over the fundamentals so many times.
There's only so many new developments in the saga here, but it's what it is.
So, anyway.
We're going to move on.
We'll take a look.
We'll see what you guys have to say after our crash out earlier.
The State Department put out a post on Twitter yesterday, and it was a visual, a graphic, and it crossed out replacement migration and it said re migration.
And people are looking at that graphic, a picture.
That was posted on social media by the social media intern at the State Department.
And they are saying, white pilled again, huge metapolitical victory.
And what I feel like doing right now is grabbing your head by both of your ears and screaming in your face, you are a goy.
Israel gets an embassy in Jerusalem, Israel gets the JCPOA to be ripped up.
Israel gets the IRGC designated a terrorist group and Qasem Soleimani assassinated.
Israel gets two wars with Iran, $30 billion in foreign aid, seven visits to the United States, an audience with the president.
That would be the equivalent if it was take your dad or take your dad to school day.
Or what is that day when you're like, your dad comes to school and talks about his job?
You know, I don't know if they still do that.
You see that on like sitcoms.
You know, oh, my dad's a plumber.
He's going to talk about being a plumber, whatever.
That'd be the equivalent of my dad works in the State Department.
He's going to give us all a sticker.
He brought everybody, he brought stickers for the whole class.
They say, I'm a junior diplomat.
Like, that's the, you're getting a sticker.
You're getting a button.
You're getting a tote bag.
You're getting a pen.
You're getting a button.
That is the equivalent of what we get from Republicans.
Israel gets the grand prize in the sweepstakes.
They get the concert tickets.
They get the new.
Mustang, you know, they get the fully loaded Tesla.
They get the grand prize.
They get the steak knives, the Eldorado.
You get a fucking sticker.
You get a tote bag and a pen and a lanyard and a sticker, and you are happy as a clam.
You're sitting in your car seat in the back seat, kicking your feet, you know, nodding off with your ice cream cone melting in your hand, happy as a fucking clam because you got a sticker that said remigration.
How about instead of a fucking picture?
We get remigration.
I don't want a picture that says the word.
I want the policy.
Can I be white pilled that the State Department tweeted an infographic that said the word remigration?
I bought me and my fiance a house in a top three area to raise a family, just to be surrounded by nine GTP Indian households with multiple Chrysler town and countries in the damn street.
Remember when they used to say that people of color and the white nationalists used to say we're people of light because we have all the colors on the light spectrum blue eyes, green eyes, red hair, white skin.
Like we are, we are the true people of color.
When you think about it, look at me.
I have a red beard.
I have a light brown mane of hair.
I have green eyes.
These are aesthetic attributes.
Let's just cut the shit.
We need an aesthetic race.
Let's just cut all the garbage about jobs and crime and citizenship.
We need an aesthetic golden race.
Can we just go off for five seconds and say, The golden race, Atlantis, if you can hear us, please save us?
The most disheartening part about Crowder in his comments section was the lack of imagination or even the will to become the cardholders in an election.
There's also a Tucker connection to his APEC that I need to dig more on, but the Joan blazing palantir makes me more confident in that link, especially with Tucker and Ofu pushing to replace you.
And I saw three unclean spirits like frogs come out of the mouth of the dragon, and out of the mouth of the beast, and out of the mouth of the false prophet.