Nick Fuentes analyzes the collapsing US-Iran ceasefire following retaliatory airstrikes on Bandar Abbas and Keshm Island, arguing the Trump administration uses these "love taps" to stall nuclear negotiations while effectively arming Israel. He contends that Section 122 tariffs were overruled by courts, costing nearly $170 billion in refunds, and predicts Democrats must win midterms to expose corruption before 2028. Ultimately, Fuentes frames the conflict as a stalemate where neither side achieves freedom of navigation nor strait control, urging his followers to embrace an unpopular "permanent revolution" against the conservative establishment. [Automatically generated summary]
What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
An overflowing of love.
An overflowing of self-giving love.
So much of it, it cannot be contained.
An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children.
Because the Republicans are better than the Democrats.
Here's a little perspective.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
Because it was Trump.
If it was Kamala, do you think 90% of Republicans would have supported it?
Absolutely not.
Democrats wouldn't support it, independents wouldn't support it, and Republicans would not support it.
And it's time to just say it outright Donald Trump is the Matrix president, okay?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the Matrix candidate.
In 2020, Joe Biden was the matrix candidate.
But in 2024, Donald Trump was.
And why?
After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
It's clear, it's obvious.
And the media is in on it.
Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the media are all in on it because Trump is their matrix candidate.
That's why CNN is friendly to them.
That's why Silicon Valley gave him hundreds of millions of dollars.
That's why Wall Street did.
And Trump is just dispensing the favors.
Corporate tax cuts for Wall Street, bombing Iran for Israel.
This is the story of the 2024 election.
And here's the red pill that nobody's ready for JD Vance is the Matrix candidate.
They ordered Trump to nominate him.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Tucker Carlson ordered Trump to pick JD Vance.
We live in a system that is controlled by one party, and they played the parties off of each other.
They've done it forever.
When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
Trump said he was going to bomb Iran.
We're tough.
So they leaned into the Republican cultural stuff.
That's why Charlie Kirk says Islam is taking over America, because that kind of Islamophobic rhetoric plays well with the right wing.
That's why they did it.
There's no Muslim takeover of America, there's a Jewish takeover of America, obviously.
And the Republicans are involved in it just as much as the Democrats.
They stole a nuclear arsenal from us, they got all of this military technology from us, we defeated their foes, and now we have essentially handed this to them.
Now they're ready to cut the umbilical cord and become their own superpower.
We endured the cost, we paid the money, our soldiers died, our country burned so that.
A Israeli superpower could be born, and now our country will be in the wreckage.
unidentified
Alright, 15 seconds.
Guidance is internal.
Five.
Four.
Ignition sequence done.
You are the best guest player in the world without a doubt, aren't you?
Five.
15 seconds.
Guidance is internal.
Three.
Five.
Second to none,
And we Side
to side, I swipe shot.
I assume you're looking at me.
You can go low to high, that's how fun.
Treat it like nobody else can see.
I could be mean tonight, But that's not what I'm tryna be.
I could be mean tonight, I'm trying to be nice, I'm trying to be nice, I'm trying to be, hey, I'm trying to be nice, I'm trying to be, I'm trying to be nice.
Trying to Be Nice Tonight00:05:19
unidentified
told you shut up, just quit it.
Remember when I grabbed my shit, I said, no buys, I'm dippin.
Remember when I said I changed, I'm new, I'm here, I listen.
I know all this shit's so mean, but I'm really tryna fix it, fix it.
You can go side to side, I sweat shot, I assume you're lookin' at me You can go low to high, it's how fun treat it like nobody else can see I could be mean tonight, but that's not what I'm tryna be I could be mean tonight, no, No, I'm tryna be nice.
I'm trying to be nice, I'm trying to be, hey, I'm trying to be
Dr. Ainley Explains Escape00:04:46
unidentified
Dr. Ainley explained that even if he caught him and brought him back to the colony, he would immediately head right back for the mountains.
Chris Wada, I can't see the time, but I'm having the time of my life.
Chris Pope, the game on the line.
I'm dropping the dime on him.
He quit turning white USA and blocked it, and that's why it's filled with great.
I'm trying to change for the better.
It's driving me fucking the same.
Hey, here on the bed.
I want to cover.
We're not on the same pace.
I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on the cover, this hoe getting covered in everything I'm at vibe, I'll take a banana, but she is not getting wet, it rain If he wants to interview Nick Fuente, get the word out It's undeniable.
He's winning.
He's sort of undeniable in the space.
He's everywhere now.
He's enormously huge at this point.
He's on a generational run.
He is freaking on fire.
Clearly a sounder.
It's spelled F U E N T E S. Very proud to present Nick Fuentes.
They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
Comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
That's what they are.
And so many of the people that worked with Elon that came into the government through Doge worked with Palantir.
Now that Doge is finished, Palantir seems to be just getting started.
This would be the third time that Israel has threatened to use nukes to force the United States to help them.
The first time was in 1973.
When Syria and Egypt launched a surprise attack on Israel, which started the Yom Kippur War on October 6th, 1973, almost 50 years exactly before October 7th, Israel was almost overrun.
And the United States was reluctant to provide them with the military support that they needed to defend themselves.
So, the prime minister of Israel, Golda Meir, called up Nixon and said, If you don't help us, we will nuke Syria and Egypt.
We will use our nuclear arsenal.
We will nuke the Middle East.
And you want to know what happened next?
The largest airlift by tonnage of military equipment in the history of the earth.
Everything that Israel needed to defend themselves.
The next day, there's a word for that.
It's called nuclear blackmail.
These people are maniacs.
This is your closest ally.
And for people that say, You know, what does it matter?
We're like the SWAT team of Free Thought, and I go on with this battle ram at the door, and then they come in with these laser beams and have that information.
If you want to take your country back, you have to stand up and take your own side.
It's all coming down to this.
In 2026, in the midterms, we are showing up, and the Gripers are showing up with us.
unidentified
Days after
the September attacks, there were countless rumors about strange coincidences surrounding the events.
One report about a group of Middle Eastern men spotted the morning of September 11th parked just across the river from New York City has not gone away.
No one's allowed to say that the blood is a quintessential part of this, that the blood of our people is something that is essential.
That we are different.
That America was different because we are different.
What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us, of love, and overflowing of self-giving love so much that it cannot be contained, unconditional,
We have a tendency to unthinkingly always support the right wing.
Why?
Because the Republicans are better than the Democrats.
Here's a little perspective.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
Everybody would say this is illegitimate.
This is like a crime.
But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf because it was Trump.
If it was Kamala, do you think 90% of Republicans would have supported it?
Absolutely not.
Democrats wouldn't support it, independents wouldn't support it, and Republicans would not support it.
And it's time to just say it outright.
Donald Trump is the Matrix president, okay?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the Matrix candidate.
In 2020, Joe Biden was the Matrix candidate.
But in 2024, Donald Trump was.
And why?
After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
It's clear, it's obvious.
And the media is in on it.
Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the media are all in on it because Trump is their matrix candidate.
That's why CNN is friendly to them.
That's why Silicon Valley gave him hundreds of millions of dollars.
That's why Wall Street did.
And Trump is just dispensing the favors.
Corporate tax cuts for Wall Street, bombing Iran for Israel.
This is the story of the 2024 election.
And here's the red pill that nobody's ready for.
JD Vance is the Matrix candidate.
They ordered Trump to nominate him.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Tucker Carlson ordered Trump to pick JD Vance.
We live in a system that is controlled by one party, and they played the parties off of each other.
They've done it forever.
When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
Trump said he was going to bomb Iran.
We're tough.
So they leaned into the Republican cultural stuff.
That's why Charlie Kirk says Islam is taking over America, because that kind of Islamophobic rhetoric plays well with the right wing.
That's why they did it.
There's no Muslim takeover of America, there's a Jewish takeover of America, obviously.
And the Republicans are involved in it just as much as the Democrats.
They have made peace with Egypt, Jordan, Emirates, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia.
They have destroyed the regime in Iraq, Syria, and soon to be Iran.
And what this gives them is unbridled, unlimited power.
To do what exactly?
Well, most likely to expand their territory.
Who exactly would stop them?
The answer is nobody.
If Israel controls that region, How rich, how powerful can they become?
My issue with Iranian regime change is that we are creating an Israeli superpower that not even we will be able to restrain.
Look at how they have used us like an instrument.
They stole a nuclear arsenal from us, they got all of this military technology from us, we defeated their foes, and now we have essentially handed this to them.
Now they're ready to cut the umbilical cord and become their own superpower.
We endured the cost, we paid the money, our soldiers died, our country burned so that.
A Israeli superpower could be born, and now our country will be in the wreckage.
unidentified
Alright, 15 seconds.
Guidance is internal.
Five.
Four.
Ignition sequence five.
You are the best guest player in the world without a doubt, aren't you?
Five.
Ignition sequence five.
The second sonata, we hold the freeze line!
And one full spin per man, one giant win per man.
But one of them caught our eye, the one in the center.
He would neither go towards the feeding grounds at the edge of the ice nor return to the colony.
Shortly afterwards, we saw him heading straight towards the mountains, some 70 kilometers away.
If he caught him and brought him back to the colony, he would immediately head right back for the colony.
Chris Water, I can't see the time, but I'm having the time of my life.
Chris Poe, the game on the line, I'm dropping the dime on him.
Keep trying to turn it to the better.
It's driving me fucking the same.
Hey, he on the bed.
I'm on a cover.
We're not on the same.
Pace, I be from the back, she gripping them covers like she on her last leg She look like she belong on the cover, this hoe getting covered in everything I'm gonna buy a bottle, take a banana, but she is not getting wet in rain If he wants to interview Nick Fuente Get the word out Ten whole vlogs in the spring,
wish I ate ten whole thousand for dinner I got a pent-up type of aggression, I'm bout to go mental, tryna suppress it They don't make no noise, be suppressed I spent your whole life on my necklace Couldn't tell which one I like better, so I'm getting both kinds of that shit I'm taking that dinner, I got your whole crying off my mother It's undeniable.
He's winning.
He's sort of undeniable in the space.
He's everywhere now.
He's enormously huge at this point.
He's on a generational run.
He is freaking on fire.
Clearly ascendant.
It's spelled F U E N T E S. Very proud to present Nick Fuentes.
They use artificial intelligence to look at vast amounts of data and create insights.
If the government has an amount of data which is kind of unimaginable, if you've got every phone call, every email, every transaction, every photograph of a license plate on the highway, satellite data, it's too much data for a bureaucracy to sift through.
Comes in and interprets the data using algorithms, using artificial intelligence, using software to make vast amounts of data usable.
That's what they are.
And so many of the people that worked with Elon that came into the government through Doge worked with Palantir.
that doge is finished palantir seems to be just getting started
You have been looking at no more than projections of a conjured reality.
Also known as a mirage.
But we are opposed around the world by a monolithic and ruthless conspiracy that relies primarily on covet means, understanding our sphere of influence.
What makes Christianity and Christ so different from the other religions is that our religion is based on the bearing of suffering for the sake of even those that persecute us.
An overflowing of love, an overflowing of self giving love, so much of it it cannot be contained.
An unconditional, absolute standard of love for all of God's children.
even those that are misguided, even those that persecute us, even the most heinous among us.
Because the Republicans are better than the Democrats.
Here's a little perspective.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election in 2024.
If Kamala doubled down on supporting Ukraine as Trump has, if Kamala bombed Iran, there'd be riots in the streets.
People would say our illegitimate president, who cheated her way into the nomination, she's expanding the war, she's expanding World War III into the Middle East.
Everybody would say this is illegitimate, this is like a crime.
But because it was Trump, 90% of Republicans supported Trump bombing Iran on Israel's behalf.
Because it was Trump.
If it was Kamala, do you think 90% of Republicans would have supported it?
Absolutely not.
Democrats wouldn't support it, independents wouldn't support it, and Republicans would not support it.
And it's time to just say it outright Donald Trump is the Matrix president, okay?
In 2016, Hillary Clinton was the Matrix candidate.
In 2020, Joe Biden was the matrix candidate.
But in 2024, Donald Trump was.
And why?
After October 7th, the Jews knew that the Republican Party, controlled by AIPAC, controlled by Israel, and with Trump in office, they were going to let Israel do whatever they wanted to do.
It's clear, it's obvious.
And the media is in on it.
Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the media are all in on it because Trump is their matrix candidate.
That's why CNN is friendly to them.
That's why Silicon Valley gave him hundreds of millions of dollars.
That's why Wall Street did.
And Trump is just dispensing the favors.
Corporate tax cuts for Wall Street, bombing Iran for Israel.
This is the story of the 2024 election.
And here's the red pill that nobody's ready for JD Vance is the Matrix candidate.
They ordered Trump to nominate him.
Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, and Tucker Carlson ordered Trump to pick JD Vance.
We live in a system that is controlled by one party, and they played the parties off of each other.
They've done it forever.
When Israel was under attack, They played into the right wing because they knew that the Republican Party would say things like, There's a Muslim takeover of America.
Trump said he was going to bomb Iran.
We're tough.
So they leaned into the Republican cultural stuff.
That's why Charlie Kirk says Islam is taking over America, because that kind of Islamophobic rhetoric plays well with the right wing.
That's why they did it.
There's no Muslim takeover of America, there's a Jewish takeover of America, obviously.
And the Republicans are involved in it just as much as the Democrats.
We have a lot to talk about tonight, lots to get into.
Big show.
We actually don't have a ton of news, a lot of drama.
Always the drama, always something.
But kind of another slow news day.
That's fine.
Our featured story tonight, we're going to be talking all about the war in Iran, which might be about to start back up again.
And we're finally going to have to talk about it.
I've been procrastinating the entire week because I'm really just past it.
I don't know if you could tell.
We did about 60 days of Iran war coverage.
And honestly, I'm just over it because we've been talking about this war realistically for like three years.
It all goes back to October 7th, which was, I think, two and a half, a little bit more than two and a half years ago.
But tonight, our featured story, we're going to talk about the ceasefire, which may have just collapsed, might finally be over.
And the way that I like to think about it is you have the official status of the war, which we have been keeping track of very closely.
There are the facts on the ground, there is the diplomacy, public diplomacy that is being conducted via true social and press release and Press pools and Trump statements.
And the way that I like to think about it is that right now we are in the period of the indefinite ceasefire.
So we just got out of the various deadlines for this major attack on Iran's civilian infrastructure that started, I believe, the week before Easter and took place basically throughout the entire month of April.
And ever since, I believe it's two weeks ago from Tuesday, two days ago, we have been in the period of the indefinite ceasefire.
And what you could call this is that we are clearly slowly backing away from the conflict.
We've been in a ceasefire now for, I believe, a little bit over four weeks.
And there is no timetable, no deadline, no ultimatum for military action to begin again.
At least there's not a hard deadline.
And so it seems that the Trump administration is trying to stall and buy time to soften the blow as we effectively withdraw from the conflict unilaterally without any kind of.
Strategic or tactical victory, or even any kind of change in the tempo or dynamic in the conflict.
And so the big development today is that it seems there is new tension in the Persian Gulf, which is going to upset this process.
Like I said, we are two weeks into the indefinite ceasefire.
That is an extension off of the original two week ceasefire.
And what happened today is that after the United States enforced Its blockade against an Iranian tanker yesterday.
So the U.S. Navy fired on an Iranian commercial vessel yesterday.
Today, Iranian speedboats tried to attack a U.S. destroyer in the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. destroyers had to retreat from the Strait of Hormuz.
And after their retreat, there was a major attack on some of the Iranian islands and on the Iranian coastline.
For example, at Bandar al Abbas, which is one of their port cities.
So, a sort of a tit for tat exchange.
As you know, Iran has closed the strait with their blockade.
We have closed the strait on the other side in the Indian Ocean with a blockade of our own.
Iran has closed the strait with the threat of using drones and missile strikes against shipping, and we have blockaded the strait by threatening attacks on Iranian commercial shipping with our own navy.
So, an Iranian commercial vessel tried to go through the strait.
We enforced the blockade by attacking it.
Iran retaliated against our destroyers, and then we counterattacked by bombing their mainland and their islands.
So, if you're following, it's a tit for tat and then back again.
Trump administration says this is not the end of the ceasefire, even though that is what Iran is saying.
Iran is calling this a violation of the ceasefire agreement, and it's not clear whether that means we're going to resume hostilities.
But Washington says that this was a love tap, which is kind of funny.
That's how Trump characterized it today.
He said that the strike on Iran's mainlands and islands were simply a love tap.
And that the ceasefire is still in place.
Now, here's the big picture.
The same day that all of this went down, Tehran and Washington reviewed a two page proposal to end the conflict.
And the proposal says that the United States will end its blockade, Iran will open the strait to commercial shipping, hostilities will end, and there will be a 30 day period where the U.S. and Iran will try to work out a comprehensive agreement.
Have we heard this before?
I mean, this is kind of the stuff we've been talking about from the very beginning.
And the sticking point in all of this, as it has been throughout this entire process over the past two and a half months and going back to Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer last year and even before that, the sticking point in this entire thing is the centrifuges, whether Iran will commit to zero enrichment or an enrichment moratorium.
And so Iran wants to discuss that issue another day.
And in the meantime, open up the straight.
And it seems that the United States is insistent that this be resolved at some point during this peace process, either now or during this 30 day period where there's going to be a ceasefire.
Because if the United States doesn't achieve that, then we will have achieved nothing.
And if we achieve nothing in this conflict, then Iran reestablishes deterrence.
There is a much higher cost of entry to re engage Iran in a war.
And almost certainly we're kicking the can down the road where we're going to have.
To confront them all over again over exactly this issue.
So there's clearly a push.
There's an impulse in the United States.
We want to get out of this.
We want to walk away from it.
We're slowly backing out, slowly backing away.
At the same time, we just can't quit because this nuclear issue is unresolved and the Iranians are absolutely defiant.
So we'll talk about all that.
We're going to get into it.
We're also going to talk about the tariff ruling if we have time.
Man, it just gets better and better.
So, you might remember that last year, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on every country in the world almost a year ago to the day.
Liberation Day, I believe, was April 2nd, 2025.
Trump announced basically a global minimum average tariff of about 10, 15% on every country in the whole world.
And he did this under this emergency provision that, as of February, has been overruled by the Supreme Court.
You might remember that in February, the Supreme Court overturned all of these emergency tariffs.
The ones from Liberation Day, the ones that were being used effectively for diplomacy against Canada, Europe, China, other countries.
And so all the tariffs were rescinded, and the Trump administration has to give a refund in the amount of almost $170 billion.
Well, after that ruling was made in February, the Trump administration invokes a new law, Section 122, to impose a minimum 10% tariff on almost every country.
That had tariffs under that emergency provision.
So Trump basically said if the Supreme Court is invalidating the old tariffs, we've got another law, we've got another legal provision lined up to reimpose the same tariffs in the same amount against the same countries.
Well, spoiler alert those tariffs under Section 122 have just been overruled by a federal court.
And so a panel of federal judges have reviewed.
The Section 122, 10% minimum tariff, and they have found that Trump improperly applied that law.
And we're not going to get into the specifics, it's really not that important.
But now those tariffs are being overturned as well and refunded.
So the original tariffs are gone and refunded.
And now the replacement tariffs are also gone and also refunded.
So as of right now, we effectively have no tariffs.
Year and a half into the Trump administration, we're going to lose the midterms and there's still no tariffs.
And what I want to point out about this, if we don't have time to get to it tonight, is that this characterizes everything the administration has done.
They're not building a border wall, they're putting the military on the border.
They're not going to pass a new tariff schedule through Congress, they're going to abuse and misuse emergency powers for tariffs that we're going to have to refund anyway.
We're not going to change the law and make it so that the federal debt ceiling can't be lifted any further or cutting a certain amount of spending for every new dollar that's spent.
No, we're going to do Doge and we're going to bring in all these people and try to find waste, fraud, and abuse in the last three months.
And none of them are even hired through the proper channels.
What do all of these things have in common?
What they all have in common is that instead of Trump using his political capital, To actually make lasting change, governing effectively, going through the legislature, building infrastructure that cannot be torn down.
Instead of building a legacy that is actually lasting, using Congress, using your political capital to actually achieve meaningful reforms that are going to last for decades or for a century, instead you have all this ad hoc garbage where they're prioritizing speed, they're prioritizing flexibility.
They're lazy.
Arguably, it's just incompetence.
And they're doing a lot of things, but at the end of four years, none of it is going to last.
At the end of all of this, if a Democrat wins in 28, they're going to take the military away from the border and the border is going to be open again.
Without a tariff schedule, a Democrat's going to come in.
Without any kind of, without putting it into the law that you're cutting the debt or the deficit, you're going to get another president, Republican or Democrat.
And they're going to spend $1.5 trillion on the military like Trump wants to.
They're going to run up.
You're going to have another $7, $8 trillion federal expenditure for the year.
And the debt is going to keep going up and up.
I think we're at 130% debt to GDP.
It's just going to keep going higher.
It's the same story with every issue.
And this is why I say, and we're going to get into this once again a little bit tonight.
This is why I say the only thing that is really going to help anything is we absolutely have to have a powerful executive come to power in this country.
It could have been Trump.
Trump could have done it.
He blew it again.
I know it's crushing.
I know it's sad.
I know a lot of people don't like to admit this.
But Trump really had an opportunity in 17.
He really got another opportunity in 25.
He could have been that guy.
And arguably, there's very little that would have stopped him.
There's very little that would have stood in the way.
Look at how quickly and decisively he was able to move in those first few months in 2025.
The left was disorganized.
We had a unified government, we had both chambers of Congress, the White House, the Supreme Court.
We really could have done it, but we just had the wrong guy.
We had the wrong guy.
We had the wrong people with the wrong plan and the wrong agenda.
And now we blew it, and none of this is going to come to fruition.
They're running out the clock.
We're running out of time.
And in 28, it's going to be over.
And so, this is why I say it's really as simple as we need somebody in 28.
And I'm not joking, it's not hyperbole, it's not an exaggeration.
It can be done.
We really just need a Caesar like figure, a tyrannical figure that is going to, as a master of governance, That is just going to make some structural, systemic changes to how the government works.
We need to build a border wall.
We need an immigration moratorium.
We need some kind of spending moratorium.
We need to rework entitlements.
You need to have a tariff schedule.
Do you know what a tariff schedule is?
It means we're going to take a look at every import and export coming into and out of the United States, and we're going to have technocrats, experts, assign a tax.
Based on that sector, based on that individual good, we're going to bring in the industry experts.
The United States used to do this.
The last tariff schedule, I believe, was passed in the late 1920s, I think around the time of the Smoot-Hawley tariff.
We can do these things, it can be done.
We can have a powerful executive with technocratic experts, and we could put the country back on the right footing.
But we need a radical departure from the past, we need a radical break.
And I think that's the only thing that can do it.
Otherwise, it's going to be a very slow and painful slide into calamity, into an absolute catastrophe.
So, anyway, like I said, if we have time, we'll get into the tariffs.
I don't know that we will, though.
But if we do, we'll talk about it.
Before we get into the news, I want to remind you to smash the follow button on Rumble, smash the like button, leave a comment.
Let me know what you think about the show.
Remember to check out our merch store at fuentes.store.
And if you want to support the show even more than you already are, remember to go to AmericaFirst.plus.
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It's all there.
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They like to watch it on their commute to work or listen to it.
It's a good option.
$100 a month to get access to the Telegram group chat with me, the $100 a month club.
And I'm in there.
I was in there all day yesterday, all day today, hanging out, talking with you guys about everything and anything, dropping voice messages, bonus content, giving you really the inside baseball.
And honestly, today is one of those days when you really get the value.
And really, this whole week, because there's been a lot of drama, there's been a lot going on.
And so, like, this week is the week you want to be in the $100 a month club.
Because I don't really talk that much about the drama on the timeline.
If you go on the timeline, I'm all about the business.
I'm talking about our mission, which is to get the Democrats elected to Congress.
I'm talking about the Mish.
I'm responding to edits of myself on Telegram.
I'm posting funny stuff.
But if you really want the inside baseball, if you want the drama, you want the dirt.
So, with that out of the way, we're going to get into it.
And look, once again, we're going to get back into this before we even get into Iran and everything else.
We're going to procrastinate a little bit more.
So, I don't really know what is going on.
I'm a little confused.
Do I have a karmic debt?
Like, what is going on?
Like, seriously, did Palantir make the call?
What is happening here?
Because it is like for the past two weeks, I have been under this coordinated attack.
Think about it.
All of a sudden, Jonathan Greenblatt goes on TV and says he's going to get every Groyper clipping account banned from Instagram.
The Atlantic does a huge hit piece about how all my clips need to be banned on Instagram.
The Canadian broadcasting company, State Media, shuts down entropy, which is how I make the super chats.
They literally fly out to Asia and they do a big hit piece on my super chat platform.
Washington Post does a giant, like 5,000 word hit piece on the super chats, invoking Christine from Ohio, talking trash about the show, all this other stuff.
Then they do this skin suit conference this past weekend.
Where they bring in all the ops and all the third worldists, mudslimes, left wing filth, haters, e girls, whatever.
And then I don't know, today it's just like the bottom fell out.
Everybody's attacking me today.
And that's why I see all this stuff and I'm like, wow, they really don't want white people to vote Democrat.
Is that what it is?
Think about it.
I really didn't even think that was the biggest taboo.
There's some red lines you just can't cross, I guess.
Lately, you can attack Jews all day long.
That's totally in fashion.
You can attack Israel.
You can be racist.
People don't even bat an eye when I say the N word.
Nobody even cares.
But you start to say, I'm off the Republican plantation.
I'm voting Democrat.
And everybody loses their minds.
Why?
Because all that other stuff is according to their plan.
Nick Fuentes is anti Semitic, says the N word.
The Goyim are waking up.
You know, that's all part of the plan.
Nobody freaks out because all of that is predictable.
All of that is a part of the plan.
But you know, for the past four years, we've all been saying, hey, Republicans are not doing anything they promised to do.
They're not deporting the illegals.
They're not keeping us out of the war.
They're giving Israel tens of billions of dollars.
And the Republicans say, well, what are you going to do about it?
Now, if Democrats win the House, then for the next two years, you'll have a Republican president, a Democrat House, and maybe a tie in the Senate.
Maybe Republicans will maintain control.
And the Supreme Court is favored for the conservatives.
So, what does that mean?
It means that Democrats are not going to be able to do whatever they want.
There's no scenario where that happens.
Because of checks and balances.
The Democrats in the House will have to reconcile anything they pass with the Republican controlled Senate.
And even if the Democrats control the Senate, the president will have to sign off on any legislation.
And that can only be overcome by a supermajority in the Senate of three fifths.
Okay?
This is civics 101.
And the Democrats will not have that.
So, what does this effectively do for the next two years?
It does not give Democrats total control.
It just checks the power of Trump.
Right now, the Republicans control the White House, the House, and the Senate.
And what that means is that in key votes, like, for example, on the Epstein files, Republicans are able to block that legislation.
The only reason that the Epstein files came out is because a handful of Republicans, one of whom who is now retired, Marjorie Taylor Greene, mutinied against the GOP and voted with Democrats.
But if Republicans had a bigger majority, they would have been able to bury the Epstein files permanently.
The same is true with the War Powers Act.
There was a resolution in the Senate to shut down Trump's war in Iran.
It was a party line vote.
Every Republican, with the exception of Rand Paul, voted to prevent the Senate from blocking Trump's war in Iran.
If the Democrats controlled the Senate, maybe they would have stopped the war.
Okay, so this is just basic stuff.
What's more, the Democrats control the House under the Constitution, they gain oversight powers.
What does that mean?
It means they can subpoena, compel the release of documents.
They can depose, compel testimony.
They can create subcommittees.
And what they will do almost certainly is they will investigate the Trump government.
Don't we want that?
If Trump is in the Epstein files, don't we want the Democrats to impeach him?
Don't we want the Democrats to open up an investigation?
Don't we want them to compel the release of documents, compel testimony?
They get that with oversight powers and they will do that.
And people say, Oh, well, voting doesn't matter.
Oh, well, it's all a uniparty.
Well, the Republicans and Democrats are still vying for power between each other.
And so, yes, just like the Democrats gained the House in 2019 and immediately impeached Trump and created subcommittees and subpoenaed and all those other things, they're going to almost certainly do it again in 2027.
And that is a good thing.
They will slow down this government.
And here's the big picture.
Okay, here's the big picture.
Let me just say it again for everybody at home.
Here is the big picture, okay?
In 2028, let me just tell you the significance of this.
In 2028, this will be the first election since 2012 when Donald Trump is not on the ballot.
That's a really big deal.
Trump was on the ballot in 2016, 2020, 2024, and it really wasn't even negotiable in the last two elections.
In 2016, there was a real primary contest, and the people chose Trump.
But in 2020, he was running as an incumbent, so there was no primary.
And in 2024, he might as well have been running as an incumbent because he was seeking a non consecutive second term.
So 2028 is going to be the first time in 16 years.
It will have been 16 years since Trump is not on the ballot.
And obviously, so much has changed in 16 years, much of it having to do with Trump.
So going ahead to the 2028 primary, I believe.
That the right wing in this country, the white people, the Christians, the conservatives, the nationalists, the immigration hawks, the anti war people, the social conservatives, I believe that anybody that would identify as right wing or Republican or as part of the opposition, we deserve an opportunity to have a fair fight.
And by that, I mean we should get options.
This is the first time that Trump is not going to be shoved down our throat.
So, 2028, we should have an open primary where we actually have a competition.
It should be competitive, and we should have a lot of different voices and get a say in where the Republican Party is going to go after Trump and where the country is going to go.
I do not want a Democrat to be in charge of law enforcement at the federal level, which is what happens in a presidential election year.
I do not want a Democrat.
To have a unified government, meaning to have the White House and both chambers of Congress, that would be ruinous.
And yes, they would kill us if they did that.
So we know what we're going to get with the left.
It's going to be garbage.
We know that's not something that we can entertain.
So the only opportunity that we have is if we get a good Republican nominee.
We need a good, because that's the only place where you're going to get nationalism.
You're not going to get a nationalist, an immigration hawk.
You're not going to get somebody that is going to restrain Jewish power.
In the Democratic Party, it's only going to come from the Republican side, but from a specific faction.
And that faction can only exercise influence during the caucus and primary process, during the Iowa caucus, during the New Hampshire primary.
That's where, if you have 15 candidates, you only need a candidate getting a plurality of the votes to get the delegates.
So, you know, if you have a big crowded field and the vote is split between 10 or 15 people or something like that, That is where the Groypers or the nationalists or somebody that is truly savvy won't even need to win a majority of everybody.
They're just going to need to rack up enough delegates with a plurality.
That is our opportunity to get somebody sympathetic in the White House, which is where it counts.
Okay?
Now let's think ahead to 2028.
What is happening right now is that there is a shadow war between JD Vance and Marco Rubio.
They both want to be coronated, neither of them wants a primary process.
They don't want to compete.
They don't want to have to fight off against a dozen other candidates.
And the party is looking, the party, and by that I mean the endorsements, the rank and file, the conference in Congress, the donors.
They're making their decisions about which of these candidates, the VP or the Secretary of State, are going to be coronated as a successor.
And once that decision is made, the whole party is going to line up and consolidate behind one of them.
And if you have one super powerful candidate, like let's say JD Vance is the guy.
And Rubio falls in line, then he is going to crush everybody in Iowa.
He's going to crush everybody in every primary, and he's going to be the guy.
Or vice versa.
If everybody consolidates behind Rubio, then Rubio's the guy, and Vance falls in line, and he's just going to crush everybody.
And both of them are unacceptable.
JD Vance has his connections with Palantir, Rubio has his connections in Florida with Miriam Adelson, and with the rest of them, Paul Singer.
Both of these options are totally unacceptable.
So think about 2028.
You have on the Democrat side, Gavin Newsom, terrible.
AOC, terrible.
JB Pritzker, terrible.
Each worse than the last.
And on the Republican side, if we do nothing, it's going to be Vance, terrible, or Rubio, terrible.
All bad options.
I'm thinking ahead to 2028.
I want Vance and Rubio to be as diminished as possible.
And that only happens if the Trump administration is sabotaged.
The Trump administration has to fail in every way, has to become more unpopular, weaker.
It has to become so toxic that Rubio and Vance are hurt by their association to it.
So that it increases the odds that an outsider that is not a part of this train wreck, this Israel occupied administration, can come in from the outside.
As a breath of fresh air for a reset and define a whole new period with Trump off the ballot in the next primary.
This is what we're thinking.
This is what we're cooking up.
And what's funny, so I've explained this like a hundred times.
I've explained it so much, but people just can't wrap their heads around it.
They're like, wait, wait, so you're a Democrat?
It's like, no.
And then they go, wait, wait, so you want to vote for them now, but you're saying they're going to hurt us in 28?
It's like, yeah, okay, yes.
Yes, I want them to win this election, not the next election.
Anyway, so that's the idea.
But I'm getting a little bit black pilled because people are just, I mean, here's the thing it's going to have, regardless, it's going to happen this way.
Okay, screenshot this, screen record this.
I want everybody to record how they feel right now.
Because in 2028, I'm going to be absolutely vindicated.
You are once again watching the magic in action.
And this time, I'm going to talk my shit and I'm going to say it confidently with my chest.
You might watch those clips from three years ago and say, How did he predict the war in Iran?
How did he predict that Trump would be this bad?
How did he predict that there'd be no mass deportation?
How did he predict it down to the month, down to the letter?
Those same people are now saying, I don't get it.
What, we're Democrats now?
Screenshot this.
It's happening all over again.
I will be vindicated.
Democrats are going to win the House.
The next two years of the Trump administration are going to be a train wreck.
He might die in office.
I don't want that to happen, but it might happen.
He's certainly going to be impeached.
They're going to grind every initiative, every program to a halt.
He's only going to get more unpopular.
And soon, okay, in 2027, the Republican primary is going to begin.
The Republican primary for the 2028 presidential election is going to start sometime next year.
Like, It might happen in January.
It might happen in the spring or summer, but it's going to happen at the minimum, at the earliest, at the midpoint next year.
And these are the conversations that people are going to have.
The donors are already making their decisions.
They want to start donating to Rubio or Vance.
All of this is starting right now.
We have to start thinking about this right now.
And if you want an opportunity, if you even want a chance in hell at having a Groyper president, a nationalist, America first president, We have to start gaming it out right now.
And, you know, this relates to what just happened with Casey Push.
So there's all the difference in the world between somebody who gets red pilled yesterday.
Sees a race, goes all in with no intention of winning.
Five months, five months before the primary, doesn't even know if they're going to be on the ballot and says, hey, let's just give it a shot.
Look, we're not taking this seriously.
Nobody really plans on winning.
Maybe it'll go well.
Who cares?
No, that's not good enough.
The 2028 primary is winnable.
But listen, it's a presidential primary.
If we're going to have a chance, you got to take it seriously.
And taking it seriously means you need to think that far ahead.
And it is a bit convoluted.
Okay.
Yes, I know this requires some second and third order thinking, but that is what is required if you want to be a Machiavellian.
That is what is required if you want to win in politics.
So, no, I don't want to wake up in the middle of 2027 with my dick in my hand and my pants are on my ankles and say, Oh, gee, I think we need to get in the primary.
Somebody needs to do something.
Oh, let's start a campaign and not know if we're on the ballot.
No, we need to think about this now.
And we need to think about the challenges that we are going to face.
And I'm telling it to you right now.
I'm not a fortune teller, I'm not an oracle, I'm not a soothsayer.
But next year, our top op is going to be JD Vance and Marco Rubio because they have the boss.
Trump is formally the head of the party as the president.
They are second and third in the chain of command in the government.
I think Secretary of State is fourth.
I'm not sure.
But it's like Vance and Rubio, formally in government and informally in the party, they are the successors.
And they are going to suck up all the money, all the earned media, all the attention, and all the votes if there is not a wrecking ball that hurts them.
I can't destroy them.
The Groypers are not strong enough to destroy the GOP machine, but the Democrats are.
If the Democrats are empowered in 26, because they are naturally set against Republicans, they are powerful enough to degrade meaningfully their chances of winning.
Democrats having oversight power will subpoena and depose members of the Trump government.
They will expose the fraud, real fraud, real corruption, real Epstein stuff, the rest of it.
It is going to be so radioactive and poisonous and toxic, it is going to seriously wound everybody in this administration.
And that is good.
Because those are the people we're gonna be fighting against in the 2028 primary, which starts next year.
So, you know, that's all I have to say to all these people call me when you wanna get serious, okay?
This cutesy stuff where you go on Twitter and say, oh, maybe Hitler was the good guy.
It's fine.
You know, it's fun, it's fine.
Hit of dopamine, it's a viral post, it's great, whatever.
Call me when you wanna get serious, because when you get serious, You start looking at power.
You start thinking about how power works.
And that's how we have to think about these problems.
That's how we have to think about these challenges.
Take it from me.
I'm not just a 10 year veteran of talking about Jews.
I don't just go on the show and say, Jew, for 10 years.
I've also been a student of the Trump movement.
I've known people in the administration in the first term, in the second term.
I know the donors.
I know high level officials.
I know how this went the first time.
I know how and where it went wrong.
I know what happened the second time around.
I know how and where it went wrong.
I lived it.
I lived through it.
I lived through the first four years of Trump and the campaign and all the fights happening in the bureaucracy.
I lived through the four years of Biden and the prosecution or persecution of the dissidents and playing that whole game and being in the opposition, Republicans running in 22 and fucking us over.
Even then, Marjorie Greene's deal with Kevin McCarthy, we were there for that too.
And then Throughout this whole process, this election, this term, the personnel, you know, so it's a dual track.
Like, yes, we have been ascending in our understanding and consciousness of the Jewish problem or Jewish power, whatever.
We've also been ascending in our consciousness and understanding of politics and how all of that works in Washington.
And I'm telling you, I'm telling you, Vance is our biggest op.
Vance.
Rubio, if you're looking for the biggest enemy of right wing nationalism, it is the conservative center right, which is going to squelch us.
They're going to fucking suffocate us.
And no one is taking this seriously.
There is so much money being poured into that, laying the groundwork.
Think tanks and nonprofits and a cadre of influencers, and they're getting the comedians in Austin, Texas on board.
They're getting all this stuff ready.
And they have been planting these seeds.
For years.
They have been planting these seeds for the past 10 years.
And they are setting up, I am telling you, Tucker and Vance and Natcon and Yoramazzoni and Barry Weiss and all of this, they're all doing it to suffocate and siphon energy from the dissident right, from the nationalists, pouring it all back into a Vance 28 campaign, a Rubio 28 campaign.
Just as much America first from that as you got in this administration, which is none, which is nothing.
And nobody has taken that seriously.
And numb nuts, numb nuts, and all these other people, they just cannot even begin to understand anything that I just said because they do not care and they don't know the first thing about politics.
So, you know, enthusiasm is no substitute for cleverness.
And that's really what they think.
There are no participation trophies in this war, okay?
Casey Push and every other loser, this long list of has been and never was failed candidates and influencers and whoever, there are no participation trophies.
You do not get a blue ribbon for enthusiasm.
There is no, at least I tried, at least I did something.
Hey, I don't know if it's gonna work.
I don't care if it's gonna work.
It didn't work.
At least I did something.
That's not good enough.
That's not enough.
It has to work.
And for it to work, it has to make sense.
And it might be convoluted and it might be ambitious and it might be a little bit too complicated for your small head to understand.
But that's how it has to be if we want to win.
Time to get fucking serious.
I'm going to run against Randy Fine.
Dude, it's everybody that lives in your district is an old boomer evangelical.
It just doesn't even make any sense.
So, no.
There are now two tracks diverged.
And honestly, it's a good thing.
Honestly, it's a good thing.
Let that be a magnet for every dummy.
Let that be a magnet for every dummy, every numb nuts, every low IQ person, everybody that just wants to do something.
Let that be a magnet for all of the refuse and the lumping.
And let this be a magnet for the elite human capital, for people that want to think deeply about these problems.
You don't even have to agree with me necessarily, but we do need to be on the same page that we're going to need a big picture.
We're going to need a big idea.
We're going to need a better mental model of the world.
And once again, people are saying, oh, it's too far.
Oh, it's too complicated.
Oh, I don't get it.
So, but here's the thing.
I let the predictions do the talking.
I'm not going to argue anymore.
I'm not going to make the case anymore.
I've made the case.
And here's the good thing about this show I always have my record.
So you do your thing, and I'll do mine.
You do your whatever that is.
I'll do my thing.
Let's just go our separate ways and let's just see what happens.
Let's just see where we are in a couple of years.
That's all I'm going to say.
Let's just see what happens in 2028.
And if you're confident, then you got nothing to worry about.
That's the difference.
I always put my money where my mouth is.
I always go all in, and I am always vindicated.
Always.
Every single time.
So I'm done.
You know, no more pearls before swine.
I'm trying to explain this to somebody that doesn't know their ass from a hole in the ground.
Let's just see what happens.
Let's just see where we are in a couple of years.
People say, you think this mythical dark horse is going to run and blah, blah.
Let's just see what happens.
Okay, let's just see what happens.
You and what army, you know, you and what army of OnlyFans thoughts?
That's the difference.
I'm still the, you know, people can say they're the movement.
People can say whatever they want.
This is still the only movement.
Always has been, is, always will be.
This is the America First movement.
Everybody knows that.
You have no army.
You have nothing.
You have no ideas.
You have nothing.
You are nothing.
So, anyway, so we'll see what happens.
But we're going to move on.
We're going to get into the news.
That's the last time I'm going to say it.
It probably isn't.
We're going to, we're probably going to do the same monologue tomorrow.
Who am I kidding?
We're going to do the same monologue next week.
But honestly, I've been saying it for a long, long, long time.
And who knows?
Maybe they're a part of it.
Who knows?
Maybe they're a part of this operation.
But that has always been our biggest enemy.
Our biggest enemy is not the left.
The left will kill us, certainly.
The left is out to get us and they hate us.
But the left is not the biggest threat.
The biggest threat has always been the center right.
Because look, we have a binary system.
We have a two party system.
You've got the status quo, you've got the institutional left, the hegemonic left, and then you've got the opposition, which is the right, which is trying to unseat and disempower the left.
And the right has, I mean, it's institutionalized opposition.
That is the other half of the country, and they have a monopoly on the people in the country that don't agree with the left.
If we can take control of the right as a vehicle, then we can use it and we can win.
That's really the path to victory.
It's not going to come from the left.
It's not going to come from a third thing in the middle.
Our system just isn't set up for that.
That has always been the MO.
And like Trump really opened up the door for that to happen because he sufficiently weakened the GOP.
And if you're paying attention on another level, you'll realize that Trump is doing the same thing all over again.
In 2016, Trump weakened the Republican Party.
For himself to ascend.
And then he became popular and the Republican Party became strong and they won in 2024 and they filled the federal judge seats and they took over the House and the Senate.
They did a lot of things.
But now that Trump is crashing and burning, he's sort of once again bringing down the GOP.
And we need to enable him to do this so that once again we can have another outsider come in and maybe we get a chance to re roll and redefine things.
But I'm telling you, whether it's Vance or whether it's a Democrat, we're going to need to go for the hills.
These are both unacceptable options.
Nobody else seems to be thinking that far ahead.
It's kind of crazy.
I mean, once again, Alex Jones, I was with him last week and he says, How did you predict the war in Iran?
I'm like, I just listened to what they were saying.
I just literally thought one year ahead.
And here it is all over again.
They're telling us Vance 28 is non negotiable, it's unstoppable.
You're just going to have to shut the fuck up and accept Vance 28 or Rubio.
And that's going to start next year.
I mean, look at a calendar.
The primary will start in 2027.
And nobody's even thinking that far ahead.
Nobody's even thought a year in the future to the next presidential election.
When do you think you're going to think about it?
When do you think we're going to get it together to field somebody for a presidential primary?
The week before?
Five months before with 100 grand?
Oh, that's good enough?
No, you got to think about it far in advance.
Long term planning, not exuberance, not enthusiasm and haste.
Let's just do something.
No, long term planning is the only thing.
That is going to get us to where we need to go.
So, if you want to be a part of that, this is where we are.
If you want to be a part of the other stuff, you know what?
Get your hijab, get your Docs Ice t shirt, and go to the next fucking whatever rally.
But anyway, we're going to take a look at our super chats.
I don't even think we're going to get into Iran.
I mean, should we?
Yeah, we'll talk a little bit about Iran.
We are going to get into some news tonight.
We'll talk a little bit about the ongoing war in Iran, and then we'll, I guess, look at the super chats afterward.
It's been an hour of monologue, and it feels like, I don't know, kind of abrupt to just go from, you know, 50 minutes of that to the news, but whatever.
So the big news is that the ceasefire in Iran is once again falling apart.
Has anybody even been paying attention to the war in Iran?
We will catch you up to speed on it a little bit.
The big development today is.
Is that the United States has bombed Iran for the first time in four weeks since the ceasefire was promulgated.
And this consisted in some air and sea based attacks against Iranian islands and coastal cities.
And this was in response to an Iranian attack on U.S. destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today.
So this is a story from the New York Times, and then we'll kind of work backwards and catch up to speed on how we got here.
It says The United States said it attacked military sites in Iran on Thursday.
In retaliation for unprovoked Iranian attacks.
U.S. Central Command said in a statement that Iranian missiles, drones, and small boats had attacked three U.S. destroyers in the Strait, but that U.S. forces had eliminated inbound threats.
The statement said that in response, the U.S. military had targeted Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking U.S. forces, including missile and drone launch sites, command and control locations, and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance nodes.
The Iranian military accused the United States of violating the ceasefire a day earlier by firing on an Iranian oil tanker that was heading toward the Strait of Hormuz.
It said it had retaliated by attacking U.S. military vessels in the region.
So this was like a tit for tat thing.
The U.S. has imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian commercial shipping.
So Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz using drones and missiles and sea based mines to any.
Commercial shipping that has not gotten permission from the IRGC.
Well, the United States has imposed a blockade of their own using these U.S. Navy destroyers in the Arabian Sea, and they are attacking any and all inbound or outbound Iranian commercial shipping.
So, Iran is attacking everybody else.
We are attacking their shipping.
So, yesterday, Iran apparently attempted to bypass our blockade, the United States enforced it.
By attacking one of their chemical tankers, Iran saw that as a violation of the ceasefire.
They retaliated by attacking the U.S. destroyers with speedboats that attacked their chemical tanker.
In response to the attack on the destroyers, the U.S. had to retreat, and then we went in and bombed the Iranian coastline and the islands.
So it was a little tit for tat.
We enforced the blockade, they attacked the destroyers, so we then bombed their coastline.
President Trump told reporters on Thursday evening that the ceasefire was still intact even after the exchange of fire.
The back and forth came as explosions shook Iran's Keshem Island and the city of Bandar Abbas, shipping centers on the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the country's capital, Tehran, according to Iranian news media and citizens posting on social media.
Iran's armed forces said that the United States and its supporting countries were responsible and that the strikes had come after exchanges of fire between U.S. and Iranian vessels in or near the Persian Gulf.
A spokesman for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wrote on social media that the U.S. has violated the ceasefire.
Hours before these accusations, three Iranian officials said that the two countries were debating a one page proposal for the United States to lift its blockade on Iranian ships and ports, for Iran to open the strait to unimpeded commercial traffic, and to end the fighting for 30 days while negotiators try to reach a comprehensive peace settlement.
The key stumbling block.
Stumbling block to an initial agreement is what to do about Iran's nuclear enrichment program and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
So, we are in the phase of the Iran war of the ceasefire.
The Iran war went on from February 28th until four weeks ago, you might remember, when the original ceasefire was announced.
And this followed all of those deadlines and ultimatums.
There's been a few phases in the war.
We came in really heavy with Israel in our surprise attack on Iran.
Purpose of which was to topple their government.
Came in with everything we had, killed their supreme leader, and the idea was the government would collapse, regime change would happen organically from the people, and that would be the end of it.
We thought it would be like Venezuela.
But the days went on, weeks went on, and we realized that would not happen.
The Iranian regime chose a new supreme leader.
It seems that their military was decentralized and resilient enough that they were still capable of carrying out drone and missile attacks.
And Critically, Iran did move and was able to close the Strait of Hormuz.
So these were some of the things that took place that changed the nature of the war.
We thought we would topple the government.
We wouldn't have to worry about the Strait.
We thought we could topple the government and that would be the end of it.
But because Iran's regime was durable, they were able to still carry out attacks.
And that gave them the capability to indefinitely close the Strait.
And that's what we were not counting on.
Because the IRGC was decentralized and the command structure was decentralized, even though we eliminated a good percentage of the higher ups, the senior leadership, up to and including the supreme leader, all of these other IRGC commanders dispersed throughout the country were still able to launch drones and missiles.
And that is their capability, which allows them to close the strait.
And so they closed the strait.
They were able to continuously keep the strait closed.
And then that put pressure on the United States.
Because of the global price of energy.
And at that point, it became a war of attrition.
And we've talked a lot about this.
The United States thought that if we just kept up the military pressure, that would eventually get Iran to fold, even though we were under economic pressure.
But as the weeks went by, it became clear that there was nothing that we could do militarily, only using air and sea power that would prevent Iran from keeping the strait closed.
So, we're under economic pressure because of the exploding price of energy and other key commodities.
And our military pressure on Iran seemed to be yielding increasingly minimal results.
There was no return on investment there.
We were hitting them harder and dropping more bombs and doing more things.
And it did not affect their ability to launch drones and missiles that were preventing commercial ships from getting through the strait.
And he was looking for ways out, looking for ways that we could increase the pressure on Iran.
We talked about all those different options.
They talked about invading the islands, they talked about bombing civilian infrastructure, they talked about paratroopers landing in the Iranian mainland, all sorts of things.
And in the end, Trump just bluffed and said, well, maybe we'll do all of it.
Maybe we'll invade the islands and invade the mainland and bomb the infrastructure.
And finally, when the bluffing didn't work, eventually Trump just sued for a ceasefire.
And that's where we were four weeks ago.
So, you could say that those were two distinct periods.
You had that first phase of the war where we were seeking a speedy regime change, not even thinking about the Strait of Hormuz, quickly turned into a war of attrition.
And we tried to win that again with overwhelming military force.
We tried to get creative and think of other ways to put pressure on them.
It didn't work.
In the end, we just bluffed.
They never believed it.
And so finally, we declared the ceasefire.
And you might remember the terms of the ceasefire were these.
We said that we will stop bombing you if you open the strait and you engage in a two week process to find a comprehensive peace.
Well, notably, Iran did neither of those things.
The Strait of Hormuz has remained closed since the ceasefire happened initially.
And throughout that two week period, there was only one meeting in Pakistan and it did not go well at all.
Iran did not agree to any of our demands.
There was no willingness to negotiate on any of our red lines or anything like that.
And so, even though the ceasefire came with these terms, we said, look, we're going to do you the favor of not bombing you as long as you open the straight and negotiate.
They neither opened the straight nor did they negotiate.
And yet, the ceasefire remained in place for those full two weeks.
And then, when the ceasefire was supposed to expire, Trump extended it indefinitely.
Now, what does that tell you?
It tells you that we are benefiting it.
We are benefiting from it.
More than Iran is.
We're telling them that we are doing them the favor by not bombing them, but they're not even keeping up their end of the bargain.
They've maintained control of the strait and they're not letting shipping go through and they're not realistically negotiating with us in good faith.
And yet, not only did the first ceasefire expire, but it was extended indefinitely.
And now here we are, two weeks and two days after that original extension.
So, where does that bring us today?
Well, again, what was being talked about.
Was a new temporary agreement where the United States would end its blockade over the Strait, Iran would open the Strait to commercial shipping, and then there'd be a new 30 day window.
Okay, so originally there was a two week window.
Now they're saying there'll be a 30 day window for a more comprehensive agreement to address the root causes and so on.
That was being discussed today.
But here again are the sticking points, okay?
The sticking points are these.
When the United States is asking Iran to open up the strait, our expectation is that they are going to leave the strait alone.
But that is not Iran's idea.
Iran's idea is that they will maintain control over the strait and they will allow ships to go through it, but only with their permission and charging them a toll to go through the strait of $1 per barrel of oil.
So there's all this talk about the strait.
We're saying you need to open it, and they're saying we will open it.
But we're saying you need to let it go.
You need to open it.
And the word that we are using is freedom of navigation.
That's the critical phrase.
We're saying we want to go back to the pre war status quo, where that is considered international waters and nobody owns it.
And therefore, nobody can charge a rent on it, nobody can charge a toll.
And so all of the Qatari LNG, all of the Saudi oil is able to freely go through.
Iran has no say over it, they can't profit from it.
Well, Iran is saying something else.
They're saying, well, it's going to be open.
But it's only going to be open with our permission.
Yes, any commercial ship can go through, but they need to call the IRGC and tell us they're coming.
They need to go through a new designated shipping lane, and they're going to need to pay us because Iran doesn't want to let this go.
For Iran, this is their deterrence.
What prevents the United States and Israel from attacking them all over again?
It is their control over the strait.
And obviously, they want to consolidate their control, which they have taken since the war started.
They're saying this is how we're going to rebuild.
How are we going to rebuild our country?
We're going to charge money on this Persian Gulf that we now own.
And what's more, they're saying we won this fair and square.
We took it, it's ours.
We're going to split it between us and Oman.
And now we're going to charge a toll just like Egypt in the Suez, just like Panama in the Panama Canal.
And that's just going to be ours.
And that's our strategic victory.
The terms and the conditions under which the strait is open.
That's number one.
But number two, and this is the big thing, and the Iranians say this whether we even have another 30 day ceasefire and whether we're able to end the blockade and open the strait, it all comes back to nuclear enrichment.
And once again, the United States is demanding that Iran give up all enrichment activity or commit to some kind of moratorium where eventually they'll get rid of it.
They're actually dug in.
They're more dug in than before.
They're saying that enrichment is their sacred right.
It's as sacred to them as their own territorial integrity.
In other words, they're identifying enrichment with sovereignty.
What it means to be a sovereign state is that you control what happens on your borders.
If another country is operating militarily on your soil, you're at war.
Because what defines a nation's independence and sovereignty is their ability to dictate what happens within its territory.
And so when Iran says, our right to enrichment, Is as sacred as our own soil, they're saying sovereignty means the ability to develop a nuclear deterrent, which is the ability to enrich uranium and have a native nuclear program.
So they're actually more dug in.
The United States says zero enrichment, no exceptions, no negotiation, no wiggle room.
And Iran is saying the exact same thing in the opposite direction.
Now, the United States is not going to agree to a short term thing without nuclear, even though Iran is saying that.
We can come to a short term agreement and we'll negotiate the nuclear issue later.
Now, why does the United States not want to kick the can down the road on nuclear enrichment?
Because we have to assume that if we give Iran 30 days, and then let's say they don't make a deal, and then it's 60 days, and then it's 90 days, for as long as we are negotiating with Iran and we're not bombing Iran, and Iran is not committed not to enrich, we have to assume they're digging out.
Their highly enriched uranium.
Or we have to assume that they have other centrifuges in the country and they're enriching more uranium.
And maybe they're working to acquire some kind of nuclear deterrent, a primitive one, but maybe they're working to acquire something like that.
So there is still a countdown timer here where the United States does not have endless time to negotiate.
And we can't give them endless time to negotiate, especially not as long as they are free from military pressure, as long as they're not being bombed.
So, this is where we are.
They say, as they've been saying for this entire time, that we're so close to a deal.
Iran wants a deal.
They say that the Saudis are pushing us to work through Pakistan to make a deal.
All these things.
And yet, the fundamentals have not changed.
The red lines have not changed.
Nuclear enrichment is still the impasse.
Even the Strait of Hormuz is now an impasse.
Iran is never giving that up.
And the United States is never going to let them have it.
And so, in the middle of this process to get a peace process, you've got an exchange of fire.
A couple days ago, the UAE is hit with drones and missiles at their oil storage facilities.
Yesterday, the U.S. enforces its blockade against Iran and hits one of their tankers.
Iran retaliates against U.S. destroyers that have to retreat.
The destroyers cannot operate close to Iran because they're too slow.
They're going to get hit by drones and missiles.
So the United States retaliates by bombing Tehran.
Well, now there's a question Does Iran take that laying down?
Iran got hit in Bandar Abbas on Keshem Island in Tehran, maybe elsewhere.
Iran says that wasn't just the United States, but also the Emirates, also the U.S.'s supporters in the region.
So now does Iran take that on the chin, this little love tap from Trump?
Or now does Iran retaliate against the UAE or against one of the Gulf countries?
I would ask another question Is the UAE trying to restart the conflict?
There are some sources that say that the drone attack on the storage facilities in the Emirates came from Saudi Arabia.
Was it some kind of false flag?
Are they looking for a provocation?
Here's my bigger point the peace process is very fragile because you have a two way blockade.
So, this necessarily involves Iran is going to be hitting commercial shipping, we're going to be hitting Iranian shipping.
So, it already lends itself, we're already set in opposition, and there's a great deal of tension.
And on any timeline, we're going to be firing on each other.
The United States said on Sunday that we launched a new operation, Operation Freedom, and the US Navy would be escorting commercial ships through the strait.
The only reason that got called off on Tuesday is because Saudi Arabia and Kuwait wouldn't let us use their airfields.
So we wanted to escalate, we wanted to get more involved.
It was the Saudis and Kuwaitis that pulled us back.
So the ceasefire is fragile.
Point number two, ceasefire can't really succeed because, in order for us to even get a real peace process, there's going to need to be capitulation on one side on one of the important issues.
And by that, I mean the U.S. and Iran will have to capitulate on the Strait or on nuclear.
The U.S. is going to have to give up on enrichment or Iran will.
The U.S. is going to have to give up on the Strait or Iran will.
But there's going to need to be capitulation.
On both of those issues, to even get a protracted peace process going.
And that's an impossibility.
Neither side is going to give up enrichment.
Neither side is going to give up the Strait.
Third, all the other players in this conflict, I think, want it to keep going.
Israel wants it to keep going.
The Emirates wants it to keep going.
It seems maybe there's a difference of opinion with Saudi Arabia.
They seem to be pushing the United States to pursue diplomacy through Pakistan, but it's hard to know what to believe.
Because there's so much lying going on with Barack Ravid and Axios and some of these other sources that are out there.
But clearly, this is a very unstable situation that tends toward a resumption of hostilities.
If the truce is fragile, if the peace process can't start because there's a true impasse on two very important issues, and if there are players involved, namely Jerusalem or Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, that want the war to keep going, then all signs point toward there's going to be a resumption of hostilities, maybe at any time.
Now, the only thing to look out for.
Is that in a little bit over a week, Trump is going to visit Beijing and he'll be in China.
Now, all of the Asian countries have a very strong interest in bringing the war to an end because it is the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Malaysia that are most acutely affected by the closure of the strait.
They are the biggest customers for Persian Gulf oil, not just Iranian oil, but all the oil and energy that comes from the Persian Gulf.
They are going to get hit first.
They're going to get hit hardest.
And they're already rationing their energy resources.
And there's sort of something interesting about this.
So, on the one hand, China sees Iran as a strategic ally.
And China is one of Iran's biggest purchasers of its oil.
Iran, I believe, is now purchasing 80% of Iran's oil.
So, Iran and China sort of joined at the hip.
And it was said that China pushed them into the ceasefire originally, probably because China doesn't want to see the United States.
Decimate Iran's energy infrastructure.
But now there's something interesting going on, which is that as Vietnam and the Philippines and Indonesia are facing these energy shortages and acute energy problems, who are they going to rely upon to get bailed out?
A country like the Philippines is a security partner of the United States, but they are kind of an economic partner of China.
It is the United States that is inflicting this energy shortage.
Shock on these Asian countries.
It's because of our military adventurism that they're having to ration energy, that they are going to face some real economic problems.
And who's going to bail them out with credit?
It might be China.
That is the center of gravity economically in the Indo Pacific.
So it seems that maybe the road to ending the war in Iran ultimately is going to run through Beijing and whatever's agreed to on May 12th when Trump goes out there.
I don't know that the war is going to restart before then, but clearly that is going to be a pivotal moment.
And maybe there's going to be a grand agreement, not just on trade, but also involving the Persian Gulf energy.
So that's going to be the next big date to watch.
Trump says that Iran has another week.
Trump says that Iran has one week to come to another agreement about another ceasefire for another peace process.
Who knows if that's even real?
The real deadline to watch is May 12th.
When Trump goes to China.
So that's what we're going to watch for.
But right now, it's all up for grabs.
Who really knows even what's going to happen?
But I would say that everything is pointing towards, at some point in the near future, a resumption of hostilities.
I don't think, as much as the United States would like to just simply walk away from this, and it seems like that is kind of the plan, is to slowly walk away, create these truces and ceasefires and this kind of like architecture of diplomacy.
In reality, I think that that is just as much of a sham as it was in February, as it was last April and May when we tried it then.
And the needle is really pointing towards there's going to need to be some kind of much more ambitious military solution.
At least that's the only way that Washington sees out of this problem in the final calculation.
So that's where we are in the war in Iran.
We finally got caught up to speed on that a little bit.
We're going to move on.
We're going to take a look at our super chats.
We'll see what you guys have to say about all this.
People calling Nick out for telling us to vote Democrats in the midterms proves him right on why we need to burn the whole GOP to the ground with every plan, trust her in it.
Will you plan on becoming a lawyer or are you doing it?
Put it into motion, bro.
Don't speak your plans into existence.
If you speak them out loud, they'll never happen.
You got to do it.
You got to put it in motion.
Don't tell me I plan on becoming a lawyer.
You don't get credit for planning on it.
People come up with these plans, they write them down, they tell people about them, and then they get this dopamine reward like they had already done it.
Abraham George, the Indian born Texas GOP chairman, running for re election for Texas GOP chairman, and all the boomers are falling for it in rural Texas.
It's not just Vivek in Ohio.
Guts grow up, right?
1823 cent $20.
I'm just entering high school soon, and I want to have a future in politics at one point.
How would you recommend I get there for me and for others that want to pursue the same thing?
Every time, dude, and that's all these girls do is talk on the phone.
Honestly, 99% of these crash outs are because I don't pick up the phone.
Like, Dan was flaming me because I didn't text him back.
And I was like, bro, I literally missed like three texts.
And he's like, it was four.
It was four texts.
I was like, whoa, not that anyone's counting, right?
And he's like, you never called me back.
I'm like, dude, you're like a girl.
All you fucking people do is talk on the phone, kicking your feet.
I don't have time for that.
It's like, well, it's not even, I have all the time in the world.
I just don't want to talk to you.
Dude, he would call me up for like hours and just give me the speech, just give me the monologue about the Jews.
I'm like, dude, I know.
Like, I know.
We were arguing about like Charlie Kirk and stuff.
I'm like, dude, watch the show.
I don't know what to tell you.
It's really, Not for nothing, but so many people crash out on them because I just won't even go one step out of my way to demonstrate that I like, like, have any patience for what they have to say.
And then they just start to hate me.
Like, that's really what I need to get better at that, but it's so hard for me.
Because there's people just like, you know, the dumbest people imaginable just blowing on my phone.
And it's like, dude, I don't want to be on a call with you for 60 minutes, you know, going in circles about like stuff we already know.
Like, I'm good.
So it's like, whatever.
You can't win everybody.
Not everybody's going to like you.
Not everybody's going to like you.
So it is what it is.
You know, some people I don't mind taking a call from, but other people it's like, holy, like just watch the show.
America first, Aaron Baker has been running against Randy Fine for a year, and Dan Bilzerian, who called you a fit, is claiming to be America first and is just now joining the race, which will split the vote with Aaron, guaranteeing a Zionist victory.
Been meaning to say this for a while and I know it's old news, but I think the greatest compliment you've ever received is when Piers Morgan said you could be Pope because you're celibate.
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