Tim Pool argues the 2026 election and redistricting will fundamentally shift power by eliminating majority minority districts in Louisiana, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey. He claims excluding illegal immigrants from the 2030 census would disproportionately erase Democratic seats in Texas and California while stabilizing Republican gains. Citing nine new GOP seats, Pool predicts a potential Republican sweep by 2028, asserting these structural changes represent a major upheaval that turns a likely Democratic clean sweep into a competitive race driven by constitutional challenges to race-based voting blocks. [Automatically generated summary]
The redistricting war rages on, and Democrats are warning that one third of the Congressional Black Caucus could be wiped out in this conflict, this procedural battle between the Democrats and the Republicans.
Since the VRA was fundamentally shifted, there is a potential for a major upheaval nationwide.
Well, most people are focusing on southern states, saying, obviously, in Louisiana, they're going to redistrict and eliminate one of these majority minority districts.
The truth is, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Illinois, many states have majority minority districts drawn up for the purpose of equity or for race based reasons.
Now, the question is why is there a Congressional Black Caucus?
Why are we creating political bodies in our government solely based on race?
We are supposed to transcend this.
And thus, my friends, this year, this battle, everything changes.
This is where it all begins.
It's not just the Congressional Black Caucus.
It's going to be everything.
If Harmeet Dillon, the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ, goes after these states, it'll be massive.
If Donald Trump gets his way on universal mail in voting with the post office, his executive order saying you can't send them out unless you can prove that they are citizens eligible to vote.
If the SAVE Act happens, if we get the citizenship question on the census for 2030, we are looking at a fundamental shift.
In this country, the likes of which we have not seen in generations.
2030 is the next major move.
And oh boy, do I got some data for you.
Now, you've already heard, I've talked about it.
The internal migration from state to state is going to fundamentally shift the balance of power in Congress.
But on the issue of illegal immigration, it could be additionally massive.
If we do not count illegal immigrants, wait till I show you state by state based on district level data, which they tend not to give you.
The argument we see from all these experts is that, well, you know, California will lose a seat, but Texas will lose a seat, so it's even, right?
When you break it down to the district level, eliminating illegal immigrants from the census count would result in Democrat congressional districts in red states being eliminated.
Now, that may mean Texas loses a seat, but it was a Democrat seat to begin with.
This is where It all changes, my friends.
Louisiana has announced they are moving forward with a new map.
We got the new map for you.
They've eliminated one.
I believe Alabama is also moving to eliminate one seat.
Now, South Carolina is getting a little weird.
Republicans defied Trump in the state and voted against it, but now we're hearing the governor may actually still call a special session.
In Mississippi, we're hearing that the special session has been ended and maybe they'll revisit redistricting later on, despite the fact that some reports are saying they're still going to do it.
Well, I can tell you this, my friends.
Right now, don't matter what they do, because the GOP is up nine seats already.
At the bare minimum, they have turned what was supposed to be a clean sweep for the Democrats into a competitive race.
For some reason, people think Democrats can win the Senate.
That's insane.
But we'll talk about that as we do with all of the news, starting with the end of the Congressional Black Caucus.
And the argument I present to you right now, I ask you all this why do we have race based voting blocks in this country?
Now, by all means, get factual and say, well, you see, Tim, back during the civil rights era, agreed.
I'm talking about today.
For what purpose do we allow this?
I would actually argue we should have a restriction on the formation of political bodies on the basis of race.
I don't think they should be allowed.
Of course, they'll just lie and say, no, no, we're the historical American lovers of freedom caucus where everyone's black.
But I don't think there should be an Asian caucus or a Latino caucus or a black caucus or a white caucus.
I think there should just be American politicians.
But you know what this shows?
This exemplifies, in my opinion, that racism ain't going nowhere because all of these people are racist.
They want to have a voting block based on race.
They want it.
They want everything to be about the race and the color of skin.
That's why they kicked little Asian kids out of schools.
Sorry, you can't come here.
Too many people look like you.
I say enough with the racism, enough with race based policies.
Well, you tell me, am I crazy?
Comment below.
Let's jump into this.
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From NBC News Democrats warn a third of the Congressional Black Caucus could be wiped out by the redistricting wars.
And I'm here for it.
The Congressional Black Caucus, a power center in the Democratic Party for decades, saw its membership rise in Congress to an all time high of 58 House members.
And this infuriates me.
It infuriates me.
The idea that we have 435 members of Congress, to be fair, I don't think it's fair, I should put it this way, that a substantial chunk, a substantial chunk, is based on race.
The implication being everyone else is the white caucus?
It's ridiculous.
They say CBC chair Yvette Clark said as many as 19 of the caucus's members could be affected by the redistricting wars in a worst case scenario.
Though she noted, it's still fluid given that states are still drawing new maps in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.
It's devastating.
People have sacrificed so much to make this a more perfect union, and here we are.
In 2026, seeing this massive regression and all the gains that have been made, it's painful.
Yeah.
All the gains made just for black people, and that's it.
And you know, I'm gonna tell you why I'm mid.
You see, look at my family going back to the 60s, pre loving v. Virginia.
You know, it was illegal for people of different races to cohabitate, to have children.
It was a crime.
They call these miscegenation laws.
And my mom was born at a time when it was actually a crime to cohabitate.
My grandmother had to pretend to be the help, and her kids were just.
And when people would find out that this was actually an interracial couple, my family had to flee.
Now, I have a question for these people.
Do they claim to be fighting for civil rights?
Well, I'd make the argument as such.
The Civil Rights Act and Loving v. Virginia specifically created a world where people like me could exist.
And with that, there is a question which caucus do I get?
Which brings me to my argument against this so substantially, and that was Occupy Wall Street.
Despite being massively corrupt with people stealing money and stuff like that, something interesting happened where it started with what they called the General Assembly.
Everybody in the park would come together and they'd all wiggle their hands and vote on things.
The only problem is stagnation.
Nobody agreed.
So they never got anything solved.
Facilitators, they called themselves the bureaucracy of Occupy Wall Street, decided to change the structure of the voting body to a spokes council, they called it.
Then you would have different bodies, based on the work they do, send a representative so that things could move more quickly and negotiations could be made.
It's kind of like why we have Congress.
Instead of having a million people all scream at each other, one guy comes in, cuts a deal.
Well, the funny thing was, it made sense to me that, like, the computer working group and the sanitation working group would have interests related to functions of the protest and send a representative to have discussion.
The only problem was.
They believed in the progressive stack and they said, well, it's not just about the job you do, but what about your race or your gender?
This created the Women's Caucus, which went to civil war because half of them were like trans women aren't women, which created like two women's caucuses.
And one was like the Women's Caucus and the Women's with Trans Caucus, which was weird.
And then you had, of course, the Black Caucus.
And you actually had people at Occupy Wall Street voting for how to spend donations.
Because of their skin color.
And I said to these people, where do I go?
Like, what would I do?
And they were like, well, there's no caucus for white people.
I said, no, I'm mixed race, I'm Asian.
And they go, oh, Asian caucus.
The white people told me to go to the Asian caucus.
And I said, okay, because I already know what's going to happen.
And I go to these progressive, woke, far left Asians, and they said, you're white.
And I'm like, oh, no, I'm mixed.
And they go, nope, you're white, get out.
And I'm like, oh, okay, so I get nothing, right?
This is why I can't stand these people.
This is why I think this should be banned.
And I don't care.
There should be, we should have some kind of provision rule or whatever.
You cannot have voting blocks in Congress based on race.
How are we going to put a stop to racism with things like this?
So I say, good riddance.
Well, the war is on, my friends.
Let me brush the chip off my shoulder and start reading about actual news for you guys.
Louisiana GOP lawmakers advance map eliminating one Democrat House district, and I am here for it.
I despise these people who claim to be fighting for progress.
While trying to drop a world that excludes people like me, because you are liars and you are hypocrites.
Let me tell you, every time I go to a conservative event, not a one person makes the issue my race.
Not a one person at turning point events of yesteryear or at the White House ever asked me about race or whatever.
I've had people come up to me and be like, You Mexican?
With progressives and Democrats, that's all it ever is.
At Occupy Wall Street, if you wanted to speak at an event, if you are white or male, they dropped you to the bottom of the list and you were only allowed to speak after everyone else, which makes literally no sense.
And what's happening is oil prices are bouncing up and down like a yo yo.
If you knew what Trump was doing, you would be seizing control of everything.
Trump announces there's a deal, prices go up.
So you buy right before Trump announces the deal.
He does.
Prices spike.
Then you sell right before Trump announces the deal is off and the prices.
I'm sorry, it's the other way around.
Trump says there's going to be a deal and the prices go down.
So you've sold.
There's going to be a deal, the prices start dropping.
I think that's right.
And then when he says there's no deal, the prices spike back up.
Because with no deal, The straight is closed.
You do that five times and you have created a new elite, a new power structure in this country.
So I have to wonder.
Democrats, of course, are apoplectic.
They're saying people are getting rich off of Trump yo yoing like this.
And I'm like, yeah, why not?
I mean, like, probably.
No, I'm not saying it's good, but I look at it like, is Donald Trump playing a game to amass as much power in the United States as possible within the GOP and his sphere of influence?
The Democrats can never gain power again.
And we are seeing this in every function and every facet.
Virginia seems to be the last vestige, the last bastion of the deep state, and they're struggling.
Meanwhile, Republicans are ascendant.
I mean, this culture war is seemingly going to end with a tremendous GOP victory.
Now, we do have some challenges that the Republicans are facing.
South Carolina Republicans defy Trump tanking redistricting for now.
However, in this post from Nick Sortor, breaking South Carolina Governor McMaster is set to call a special session to redraw their map, per Rep. Adam Morgan.
The new map would likely eliminate the Democrat U.S. House seat, and it could pass with a simple majority.
If Henry McMaster does this, it won't matter that these Republicans said no.
He'll just bang the hammer and it's on.
Now, we got this from Greenville News.
McMaster will wait to decide on whether to call a special session, so we don't exactly know what's happening.
The story has been let's update this again to make sure we're getting the latest update because I know Nick Sortor had the news.
They say South Carolina's governor is waiting to see what the legislature can accomplish by May 14th before determining whether to call a special session.
South Carolina Senate failed to adopt an amended signed resolution, probably not doing that wrong, on May 12th, which would allow lawmakers to keep working beyond the May 14th deadline.
President Donald Trump specifically called on the state Senate to redraw the maps, and they said no.
But if a special session is called, it's on.
Now, interestingly, when we move over to Mississippi, Governor Tate Reeves cancels the special session on redistricting.
Yeah, but this is where it gets weird.
This is a special session on redistricting the Supreme Court seats, their jurisdiction.
They say the May 20th special session was initially called to fulfill the court ordered redistricting of Mississippi's Supreme Court voting districts.
But in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision to gut the Voting Rights Act, the ruling was overturned and the state no longer has to redraw those districts.
Calls for Reeves to include Mississippi's U.S. House voting map in the special session echoed on social media, bolstered by state auditor Shad White and later agricultural commissioner and gubernatorial candidate Andy Gibson.
The Republican politicians urged the legislature.
To eliminate the majority black district that has elected Thompson a Democrat for 33 years.
Well, Ryan James Gurdusky comes in and says Alabama and Louisiana redistricting two seats instead of four.
Yeah, no, I don't think they're dropping the ball.
I think they're doing exactly what they've always been expected to be.
They are what we expect them to be.
So, dropping the ball means we, the outsider populists who want to see real change, are upset that the establishment crony shills will not do what needs to be done to preserve and protect this union.
Now, there is an aside, which I want to throw into the mix a little bit before we get into the bigger macro scales of these things.
Thomas Massey and this crazy scandal that's emerged.
Thomas Massey may actually lose.
It's really, really close.
The polls, I think we got the poll data here.
Echelon Insights.
Ed Gallrain is winning in the polls against Thomas Massey for the primary.
And it's, you know, it's across the board.
With those leaning, you get Gallrain at 52.8%.
The key takeaways Massey may actually lose his seat as the GOP has dumped massive amounts of money into this fight.
What I can only say is Thomas Massey is a maverick.
He defies, he bucks the trends.
Sometimes he works with Democrats, particularly with Roe Connor.
But he defies Trump because he stands on principle.
But the power is coalescing around the GOP, and this could be bad news for some Republicans as well.
Now, the question, my friends, is where do we go from here?
What happens in 2030?
Beyond 2026, what changes shall be wrought?
The first thing I'll say is this Democrat Party favorability is actually worse right now than the Republicans.
Not by much, but that is significant.
Democrats are supposed to be way up, they're supposed to be doing way better.
Why aren't they?
Well, I guess people just plumb don't like Democrats.
The weird woke stuff, they're fake.
Their politicians suck.
We got rumors about who's going to be running in 2028.
Pete Buttigieg apparently is going to be running.
There's rumors that Pritzker is making a move.
That's why he's been doing press so much.
And Mark Kelly.
Mike?
Mark Kelly?
Which I forgot the guy's name.
But I'm pretty sure it's the astronaut guy.
You know what I'm talking about.
It's Mark Kelly.
Mark Kelly.
There's a handful of other people, of course, Gavin Newsom, but he's the obvious one.
We know that.
None of these people got any Riz.
They got no Riz.
On the right, you've got some.
Rubio, he's got procedure behind him.
Rubio has decorum.
JD Vance has a little bit, but not like Trump.
I look at the current field of candidates and I'm like, ain't none of them got it going on.
Seriously.
It's kind of crazy if you think about it.
We had Barack Obama.
I mean, George W. Bush had Riz, okay?
This means charisma.
George W. Bush, call him dumb, but he could rally people and he talked in a way that people like to hear.
Obama, the same way.
Donald Trump, 100%.
Right now, ain't nobody got it.
Like, don't get me wrong.
Obviously, JD Vance has some, a good amount.
Charisma, but I don't know.
There's rumors that he might not even run.
Then you got Rubio.
Eh, Rubio is impressive for a lot of reasons.
I'm very impressed with him as of lately, but he doesn't have that I don't know, that X factor.
Now, I'll tell you this Democrats have none at all, you know.
In the generic congressional vote for 26, the polling heavily favors Democrats.
Here's the thing, though.
Anybody who's paid attention knows it always favors the Democrats.
It always is.
There's a natural bias in the polls nationally.
The question is in the swing districts, what will we see?
That's the real question.
This doesn't matter at the highest level.
I will say it may actually be balanced.
We actually may see a six point advantage for Democrats because it's usually favoring them.
This time around, so it should have been lower, but this time around, Democrats actually do have.
Let's just say the historical trend, I guess.
They're the opposition.
They're the underdog.
6.6 may actually make a lot of sense.
Trump's job approval right now in aggregate is minus 16.
So not all that great.
These things will, in fact, play a role.
But let me show you this map I've got.
I've got a couple of maps for you.
This is the U.S. map showing states that have majority minority districts.
If Harm Meet Dillon decides.
She's going to go in and say, majority minority districts are unconstitutional and you must redraw your maps.
Take a look at this hammer drop.
Pennsylvania has two.
New Jersey has two, three coalition.
New York has seven majority minority districts.
Illinois has five.
All in all, there are, I believe, what is this?
Holy crap, 55 districts that are considered majority minority.
Well, the point is, they're unconstitutional if they're drawn up explicitly for the purpose of racial issues.
In Illinois, you've got an area where it's not drawn up based on race, but it's going to be majority black.
So that likely would still stand.
The point is, half, let's just say 27, 27 seats could be eliminated under the new VRA ruling.
And here's my ultimate favorite.
2024 projection Democrat seats net change Republican seats based on illegal immigration.
If we were right now to eliminate illegal immigrants from the census, Democrats will lose two seats, Republicans will gain two seats, a four seat swing.
Now, here's what no one tells you.
We see these, I've talked about it before.
They come out and they say in these maps, they're like, actually, as I showed you here for the net migration change.
They say in these maps, well, if California loses a seat, but Texas loses a seat too, then it's balanced because Texas is Republican and California is Democrat.
I then said, based on that information, if we removed those illegal immigrants from the census, what would the per party seat change look like?
Texas loses two Democrat seats.
And there it is.
Arizona loses one Democrat seat.
California loses one Democrat seat.
Interestingly, Oregon would gain one Democrat seat.
Minnesota would gain one Democrat seat.
But Ohio and Tennessee would each gain a Republican seat.
Overall, with that loss, it results in Republicans gaining two and Democrats losing four for a net change of plus two Republican.
That's tremendous.
That's absolutely massive.
It's going to reshape everything in 2030.
Now, take a look at this.
I asked it to project in 2030, if they do not count illegal immigrants, take a look at this.
Massachusetts will lose a seat.
New Jersey will lose a seat.
California would lose two Democrats.
These are Democrat seats lost.
All of it is Democrat seat lost, by the way.
Wisconsin will gain a seat, but we don't know how it would go.
And Pennsylvania would as well.
Virginia would gain a seat.
South Carolina would gain a seat.
This is what the map's supposed to look like.
Let's just eliminate party and just talk about the seat swings, where the minuses are and where the pluses are.
There should not be any, none of these states should be lit up.
We should not be counting illegal immigrants in our census and then apportioning representation to Congress, to our federal government, because there are people who live here who are not citizens.
That is insane to me.
With Wisconsin, you don't exactly know how it's going to go.
And the important thing to understand with PA as well, They might gain a seat, but it depends on who controls the state.
With New Jersey losing a seat and Massachusetts losing a seat, it's because that's it.
You'll lose a seat.
Figure it out.
And they already gerrymander.
Now, as for Wisconsin, if control is Democrat, they'll gerrymander a Democrat seat.
If it's Republican, they'll make a Republican seat.
Same with PA.
Washington would actually gain a seat.
Now, my question is why should any of these states tolerate this stuff?
Why should any of these states that are owed congressional representation and an electoral college vote?
You know the secret is the secret is that illegal immigrants tend to be in urban centers, sanctuary cities, on purpose.
This forces the creation of another Democrat district.
So if you've got, let's say you've got a million people in a big Democrat, in a big city, they say, okay, if we're going to apportion a congressional seat there, you circle most of the district, most of the city, and that gives you 775%.
Individuals that vote Democrat.
Now, the truth is, it's probably going to be 600,000 Democrats and 175K that vote Republican.
So you can split the city basically by three quarters.
Then the rest of those Democrats will be absorbed into a red area, creating a lean red, but that's the way you have to do it.
Now, let's say there's a million people there, but, but, but, but, you add in 100,000 illegal immigrants.
Now you've got 1.1 million people, and the calculus starts to change.
The Democrats then say, wait, wait, wait, wait, hold on.
When we gerrymander here, we are going to have 1.1 million.
If we split this in half, 550,000 each, we can create two Democrat districts with 550, 550, 125, 125.
The issue with just the million is that you could make a district of 550 and have 450 left over, and you still could crank one out.
Crank out a Democrat district.
It makes it substantially easier.
And that's why they are sanctuary cities that will not deport illegal immigrants.
It gives them voting power at the federal government illicitly, illegally, unconstitutionally.
And I would call that evil.
Now, to be fair, again, you can still draw up with 1.1 million people in an area, that additional 100,000, you can make three Democrat districts that are, you know, D plus seven or something.
300,000 each.
Split up.
Theoretically, you could do 250 each.
You could do 275 each.
And that's going to overpower.
That's basically what AOC's district is.
It's lean, it's majority Democrat, but if every single Republican in AOC's district voted, she would lose.
This war, the Supreme Court ruling, it may not be exactly what you want.
You may be upset, saith Ryan James Gerdusky, that they're dropping the ball.
But what about moving forward to 28 and 2030?
This is just beginning.
This is the year that changes everything.
If Republicans keep doing the bare minimum, they still win.
Right now, they've gained nine seats.
And we can see in the prediction markets, it's dipping up 28% likelihood of a Republican sweep.
Full disclosure.
I put money down, $100, on Republican sweep because I think one of two things will occur.
They will sweep, or enough will change from now to then that people believe the possibility of Republican sweep will skyrocket, which means the value of those contracts goes up.
I'm not telling you what to do.
I'm giving you full disclosure on what I'm saying.