Tim Pool argues the U.S. under Donald Trump is intentionally blockading the Strait of Hormuz to choke China's oil supply, forcing global dependence on North American energy to secure U.S. debt held by Japan and China. He dismisses claims Trump was tricked by Israel or that the war serves only Greater Israel, citing inconsistencies in actions regarding Panama, Taiwan, and Greenland as evidence of a calculated strategy for resource control rather than ideological expansion. Ultimately, Pool contends the military-industrial complex is executing a long-term plan to build a self-sufficient North American fortress, similar to Russia's approach in Ukraine, challenging narratives of accidental conflict or simple aggression. [Automatically generated summary]
Yesterday, Donald Trump announced a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz for ships seeking to enter or exit Iranian ports.
Now, China has defied that blockade.
After calling it dangerous, they successfully got an oil tanker through the Strait.
Now, the question is what are the goals of this war with Iran?
And many have asked this.
Now, I believe Donald Trump's intention was to shut down the Strait.
Of course, when I bring this up, many people say, Tim, you are Coping.
It's a coping to seethe.
Donald Trump has failed on the war with Iran.
Israel forced us to do it.
But I say this, my friends, I see something strange happening.
When you take a look at the intentions of the United States as it pertains to oil and the economic order that controls how oil is sold around the world, everything lines up perfectly.
It all makes sense.
The Qatar Turkey pipeline resulting in a war in Syria, Burisma in Ukraine, Russia trying to take Crimea.
Seems like All of this has to do with the liberal economic order and control of energy globally.
Saddam Hussein wanted to trade oil in Euro.
He died.
Muammar Gaddafi wanted to trade oil in Gold Dinar.
He died.
And now we have this.
What is the outcome of what is occurring with the war in Iran?
Well, there's something called Game Theory 18, where a Chinese professor says that Trump's intention was to get the Strait of Hormuz closed because it's where China gets a large portion, a major chunk.
Of its oil.
Iran exporting oil, as well as the other Gulf states, and selling this oil to China.
Whether it was intentional or not, one thing is certain China is suffering with this blockade and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
On top of that, U.S. crude exports in the Gulf are reaching record levels.
So the outcome is obvious, but what is the reason behind it?
Now, there are naysayers online.
They say Donald Trump was tricked.
Into this ideological war for greater Israel, which I gotta be honest, seems fabricated, whole cloth.
What are they even talking about?
No, I'm well aware of these ideas that Israel wants to expand, they want to move into Lebanon, et cetera.
We get it.
Syria, we get it.
They want to control the whole region, including Iran, and Iran's the only thing standing in their way.
But the actions that we see from the U.S. don't align with whatever that is.
When you take a look at Panama, Taiwan, Greenland, and now what's happening with Iran and the Strait.
It very much does seem like the US's plan the whole time was to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The question then, of course, why not just come out and say that?
I think it's actually quite simple, my friends.
The US is never going to come out and say, we started a war for oil.
They're never going to come out and say, we blew people up for cheap energy.
They won't do it.
They've not done it.
They're not going to do it now.
Although we all kind of know that's the big play, right?
Donald Trump will not come out and say to the American people, Your cost of living is going up.
Your energy prices are increasing because we are trying to choke out China and win an economic conflict.
The idea is actually quite simple.
Trump is launching a sacrificial attack, taking great damage to the U.S. economy to create much more damage to our adversaries, to China, to Iran, and many others.
Could it be that Trump started this war hoping Iran was going to shut the straight down?
And then when Iran announced, They were going to reopen it.
What happens?
Trump says we're going to blockade anybody trying to trade with Iran, maintaining the stranglehold on China.
At the same time, before this war began, what did the U.S. do?
They went and got Maduro and seized the largest producer of crude, Venezuela.
Now, again, I've talked about this in great detail, and I've got these people, these former conservative, now anti-Trump guy, saying, I am coping and seething.
I don't care for your tribalism.
Not at all.
My question is, what is going on in this world and what is the big picture?
Now, Trump certainly has gone after many of his former supporters, but again, actions speak louder than words.
And I throw it to Alex Jones himself because he taught me this key bono who benefits?
Who benefits from what is happening?
Now, the people, they'll tell you Israel does.
And to a certain degree, I'd agree with that, absolutely.
But take a look at what's going on right now.
US crude at record levels, China being choked out, so desperate, they're trying, they have.
Broken through a U.S. blockade.
China's hurting from this.
They're taking on massive economic damage.
This could theoretically stop China from becoming the dominant global power.
So, who benefits?
The United States does because we are selling oil like crazy.
But again, would Trump ever come out and say, Your gas prices are going up because I'm starting a war to hurt China?
Would people understand why he's doing it?
Would they even want him to?
Let's break down the news.
I want to go through exactly what we've got.
But there's another big story that I want to start with.
Guys, I'm not here to be a diehard Trump supporter.
I think Trump has done a lot of questionable things.
He attacked Riley Gaines.
I'm not a fan of that.
Trump is an egotistical, brash guy.
We get it.
But right now, there's a viral story that Trump was booed at UFC.
As far as I can tell, he wasn't.
But the headlines say Trump booed.
The libertarian types coming out saying, wow, Trump is getting booed.
The former Trump supporting now, you know, right leaning individuals now anti Trumpers.
I got studio monitors.
We've got ultra high end equipment here.
I cannot for the life of me hear a single boo.
But the headlines are all repeating these lines over and over again.
Something does not make sense.
I don't have access to deep intelligence.
I don't believe there's grand conspiracies.
It could be an emergent phenomenon.
But it does seem like there are people piling on to attack Donald Trump for reasons I honestly don't understand.
That's just me.
Maybe I'm not smart enough.
That's it.
Maybe I'm not smart enough.
Because the Iran war stuff, but putting out a fake video claiming you was booed, I mean, these are weird things.
Perhaps those that oppose this war don't care.
Feel the ends justify the means, so they'll lie to smear Trump.
I guess.
Don't get me wrong, Trump deserves to be criticized for a lot of things.
I did this morning, but these stories seem strange.
Let's start here and talk about what's currently going on.
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I don't know right about everything, but I can tell you this I can't figure out this puzzle.
All I can tell you is it seems like Trump is doing this on purpose based on the outcome we are getting, China's reaction, and the benefits the U.S. is seeing.
But anyway, join us at timcast.com.
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But here's the news China defies Trump.
Chinese tanker travels through the Strait of Hormuz after Beijing declares U.S. blockade dangerous and irresponsible.
Well, here's the story.
This is from Al Arabia English.
China says Strait of Hormuz blockade against global interests.
Urges restraint.
Now, this one's interesting.
Of all of these special interests to come out when Trump says he's going to shut down the Strait, here comes China.
China said a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would go against the international community's best interests and urged calm and restraint by all sides.
The U.S. military said it would begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports at coastal areas on Monday after the failure of weekend talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the Iran war.
Before the war, most Iranian oil exports were shipped to China.
The top global importer of crude.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not serve the common interest of the international community, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told Khaldun Khalifa al Mubarak, special envoy of the UAE, president for China, in Beijing on Monday, according to a ministry statement.
Wang said China understood the legitimate security concerns of the Gulf Arab states and that the fundamental way to resolve the crisis was a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire achieved through political and diplomatic means.
I have a lot to break down for you, my friends.
First and foremost, from the IEA, The International Energy Agency Iran energy crisis will redraw the global energy map.
And the response that I have gotten from my videos talking about this has been that I am a desperate Trump supporter, coping and seething because Trump is an utter failure.
Well, certainly you can rag on Trump.
I don't care.
But this does not seem to make sense with the moves our military is making.
Donald Trump says he wants a ceasefire.
I begged for it.
Many people attacked Trump and called him a chicken and a coward.
And I said, how does this make sense unless they want the war?
Unless they actually want the war.
Maybe they do.
Well, unfortunately, the ceasefire failed.
The end result is Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump is angry about it.
But when Iran then says we're going to reopen the Strait and people will pay tolls, the US then shuts it down.
Was that plan B?
Was the goal always to choke China out?
Now there is a viral video I want to show you.
Many of you have already seen it.
I've played it many times and I find it very compelling and very interesting.
unidentified
Check this out.
Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Colombia.
JP Morgan says the world will run out of oil by mid-April.
The global economy is about to collapse.
Trump looks like the worst president in history.
I'm a complete buffoon.
Right?
But what if that's the whole point?
What if Trump wants to lose the war in Iran?
What if he wants the American empire to collapse?
What if he wants to destroy the global economy?
Then he would be a genius.
Let me explain.
Right now the world gets 20% of its oil from the Middle East.
Japan gets around 75% from the Middle East.
India gets around 60%.
China gets around 50%.
Europe is also heavily dependent.
But here's the thing oil is not rare.
Venezuela has the world's largest oil reserves.
Canada has massive reserves.
The United States has massive reserves.
Trump just took over Venezuela in January.
He's threatening to take over Canada.
You see where this is going.
If Trump closes the Strait of Hormuz by fighting Iran, the Middle East oil stops flowing.
But North America is still pumping.
Suddenly, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea, they all would need American oil.
And not just oil, fertilizer too.
The nitrogen for food production also comes from the Middle East.
If that's cut off, where do they turn?
There are only two options North America and Russia.
Trump is making the entire world dependent on the resources he controls.
Now, here is the genius part.
Who owns the most US debt?
Who's financing America's $39 trillion?
It's Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, UK, France, Belgium, and Luxembourg.
The same countries that need Middle East oil.
There's been this fear that these countries would stop buying US Treasury bonds, that they would move to gold or Swiss francs, that America's Ponzi scheme would collapse.
But now they need American energy, they need American resources, they can't abandon the dollar, they are trapped.
Trump just turned America's biggest weakness, its debt, into its greatest weapon.
By starting an unwinnable war in Iran, he's forcing the entire world to depend on North America.
This isn't new.
Putin already proved that this strategy works in Ukraine.
Russia has been fighting for five years.
It's a slow grind, but it has restructured Russia's entire economy around war production, drones, ammunitions, and military manufacturing.
Russia went from importing Iranian drones to making their own, and now exporting them to Iran.
Putin's plan was that the world is collapsing anyway, so why not build a fortress?
Make Russia self-sufficient.
Control the resources and weather the storm.
America saw this and said, We can do the same.
Greenland for rare earth minerals, Canada for oil and resources, Venezuela for oil reserves, Mexico for manufacturing, Panama Canal for trade control.
So maybe Trump is not being reckless.
He is actually building a self-sufficient North American fortress while the rest of the world burns.
So yes, Trump looks like an idiot.
Yes, he's losing the war in Iran.
Yes, he's destroying the global economy.
But if the goal was to end the American empire and rebuild it for Americans, to make the world dependent on US resources while everyone else collapses, Then Trump might go down as the greatest American president in history.
Maybe the New World Order is dead, and maybe we are heading towards a Trump world order.
What I can say at least is that it does appear that the end goal is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Donald Trump is now enforcing it himself, albeit not particularly effectively.
China got a tanker through.
But again, if the goal was to reopen the Strait, many people mocked Trump, saying, What do you mean?
The Strait was open the whole time.
You started a war, and the Strait got Closed and now you're floundering.
Indeed.
One would have to believe that Donald Trump, the billionaire celebrity, is a brash guy.
So it's not entirely impossible.
You have to believe that not just him, though, Hegseth, Vance, his entire administration, more importantly, the deep state itself, the intelligence agencies, did not think through what was about to happen.
Every military leader, everybody, these people genuinely believe there is one man controlling everything, and it's just Trump.
Retarded.
The entire machinations of the political infrastructure of the United States is not controlled by just Donald Trump.
Trump does not snap his fingers and declare war on Iran.
Other people are involved.
Marco Rubio is involved.
Now, I'll tell you this perhaps the greatest of levels, it really is just that simple.
A bunch of dumb guys bumbling on accident.
Guys, I just don't believe it.
Now, if you're a first order thinker, you're screaming Trump is an idiot.
Because you can't think beyond step one.
If you project your capabilities onto another person, you can't understand what's happening.
Me, I'm a strategy game player.
I played chess when I was a little kid.
I like Magic the Gathering and I play poker quite a bit now.
The people who can't understand planning several moves in advance can only see a man who's blundered his way into everything he's ever gotten.
But I cannot, I cannot believe that.
That's possible, don't get me wrong.
But there is an intelligence apparatus at play here.
It exists.
Certainly, it would have tried to stop Trump if it was a bad idea, right?
Well, the response that we get is yes, it's because it's controlled by Israel.
Does Israel have a plan here, too?
Is their plan to lose the war?
If you believe it is Israel pulling the strings, then certainly you'd agree.
They've planned four or five steps in advance.
We all saw what happened with the pagers in Lebanon.
They carried these things around for years, apparently, and then all exploded at once.
They have planned ahead.
And when they start a war, and I mean the military, the US, whoever you believe is controlling whatever, And it closes the Strait of Hormuz.
Then, when Iran announces the reopening with a toll, the US shuts it down again, or tries to.
It sounds like the intended condition.
Now, that video said the world order was breaking apart and Russia was trying to build a fortress.
Maybe the US was doing the same.
Xi Jinping himself of China says, world order crumbling into disarray.
Seems that powerful interests around the world all agree.
It's all breaking apart.
Now, I don't know why certain things are happening.
I can only speculate as to the pieces that I see before me where I try to put them together and figure out what this puzzle is.
But I'll tell you what the puzzle is not.
The puzzle is not Donald Trump doing things on accident.
These people who say that Trump's a buffoon and Elon Musk is stupid and they think they're so smart and they're smarter than they are.
You do not become president, a billionaire, by being stupid.
I have plans for what we're going to do a year from now.
It's remarkable to think that Donald Trump would not do similarly, if not more, Or that the CIA and the FBI and the NSA, the DEA, all of them, that they would not also have plans far in advance.
Meaning, when Trump started this war, they've.
Here's how it works, guys.
Now, I'm not trying to patronize you.
I know many of you already get this.
But if you've ever played chess, okay?
You decide you're going to move a piece.
You consider if I move my knight into this square, who threatens it?
Well, your opponent's bishop.
Is pointing right at that square.
And so you say, you know what?
I'm not going to move it there because the bishop might get it.
The only issue is actually, I'll give you a better example.
There's a really great video I watched.
I sometimes watch these chess videos.
Very common, relatively common move sacrificing the queen for a checkmate, a trap.
There was one brilliant one I watched recently where you couldn't necessarily see the trap.
It was a little bit harder to tell.
And this guy breaks down this video of a famous chess game where a person moves his queen into a certain position.
The opponent, thinking only one step ahead, says, Aha, you've made a mistake.
Uses his queen to take the queen.
And then the guy pushes a pawn forward and goes, Checkmate.
Something like that.
There's actually really much, much better chess plays where there was one I saw where a guy moved his rook into a position that would have the black player use his rook to capture, seemingly for free.
The only problem is this closed one of the exits his king had, and then the guy needed only to move, I think it was like a bishop, and now the king had no moves and there was no way to block the bishop, so it was a checkmate, a trap.
He should have seen it.
There's a ton of moves like this.
The idea that Ignore Trump for a moment.
The United States itself, its corporate interests, the CEOs, would not have at least thought what happens if this occurs is shocking to me.
Take a look at this from the Wall Street Journal.
Blockade helps put U.S. crude oil exports on record pace.
Indeed.
Axios.
Trump pitches Iran blockade as a boon to U.S. oil.
He said it before.
And the question is why wouldn't Trump just come out and say, look, here's what we're going to do?
We're going to go to war.
It's going to trigger the Strait of Hormuz to close.
China is going to get cut off.
We're going to exacerbate that problem in purpose.
Well, two reasons.
First, China would say, You have just declared an attack on us.
And more importantly, Iran would say, If that's your plan, we're not going to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump wants to trick them into making it.
It's called inducing or induction.
You take an action to induce your opponent to take a move you want them to make.
That's what may be at play here.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Maybe Trump is just a buffoon who slipped on a banana peel and pulled off a perfect backflip.
Maybe this really is Greater Israel's campaign to take over Iran, I guess.
And all of this is just an accident.
I just don't think so.
Guys, I play poker all the time.
And something that, you know, I'll tell you this because I love the game.
It works because there are so many people who think they're so smart, they can't understand the strategies.
And how deep the strategy actually goes.
Many people look at it a game like it's a game of cards.
I get two cards.
If they're good, I win, right?
80% of hands that win are not the best hands.
This is the amazing thing.
That's why they say it's a skill game.
Most of the time in tournaments, you don't go to showdown, no one ever sees the cards.
It's a battle of wits and strategy.
Inducing an opponent would be intentionally not betting so that they make a bet against you and you have the best hand, and then you trap them because now they've thrown chips in a tournament.
When you get dealt your first two cards in a game of Texas Hold'em and you look down, you don't just think, here's order one.
I have gotten good cards.
I will make a bet.
I hope I win.
That's first ordered thinking.
Better players say, I've gotten good cards.
I am in the first position, it's called under the gun, which means after I make a bet, I can expect to see several things that may occur.
That's order two.
Order three.
In the event, plus one makes a bet, plus two makes a bet, plus three makes a bet, middle position, hijack, logic, et cetera.
At that point, the variables explode.
You are now, in that one moment, looking down, calculating what is my recourse in the event of variables A, B, C, D, E, F, G, and then one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, because there's variables on top of variables.
Good players in all strategy games have already planned five, six, seven moves in advance.
You will not convince me that the U.S. military apparatus did not do the same.
That doesn't mean they're succeeding.
But man, oil exports are nearing record levels.
The U.S. is intentionally blockading the Strait of Hormuz or trying to for the Iranian ports.
While everyone's calling Trump a moron and a retard, Iran energy crisis will redraw the global energy map.
Now, the IEA says that what's going to happen is.
Many of these countries are going to prioritize self sufficiency, nuclear energy, alternative energy sources, perhaps fusion, because of the risk of relying on Middle Eastern oil.
Trump is gutting Iran's economy by shutting down their oil trade.
I cranked the volume, I put the headphones on, I listened to it like 15 times trying to figure out what the anyone is talking about.
And they're running articles saying Trump booed at UFC Miami.
Y'all joining the likes of the liberal wackaloons.
Lying about what is going on because you don't like the man.
I don't want war in Iran.
I do not support these foreign interventions.
I have said it from the beginning.
I was skeptical on Venezuela, though I understand Venezuela.
I don't want entrenched U.S. war in Iran, but y'all are lying about everything.
And when I point out the facts of the war, these people come out and say, Tim is coping and seething.
I'm not playing your stupid games.
Trump is an imperfect man, he is bad for a lot of reasons.
Okay, but you tell me the truth and you don't spit in my face because I am done with this.
You don't have to like him.
You never did.
But you don't lie to me and you don't put out fake garbage.
I'm not playing these games with these people.
I can go look into the eyes, and this has always been the case.
I can sit with a Trump supporter and say, Trump shouldn't have done this, and they'll say, okay, fair point.
What the living is this?
These people coming out and attacking Trump, claiming he was booed when he was not.
Did you even watch the video?
It's like 2016 all over again.
I don't care.
Look, Trump's not going to be president.
He's got a couple more years left.
We got a midterm we need to win.
Is the goal to have Democrats win so that we can have whatever it is they want to do?
This is nuts.
I'm not playing this game.
I'm not doing this.
I'm not doing this.
Y'all are lying.
Y'all are lying.
I'm not here to be lied to.
I see these posts.
I make a video going into great detail about what it is that's currently happening China breaking this blockade, what is the real play happening in Iran, and you get these goons coming at me.
Coping C, Tim, Trump's an idiot.
Yeah, if you think Trump's stupid, I got a bridge to sell you.
He's certainly egotistical, he certainly does dumb things sometimes, but you're also telling me that the entire military industrial complex.
Made a mistake.
They can make mistakes.
Don't get me wrong.
You take a look at Afghanistan and how that turned out.
But one could argue they didn't plan 20 years in advance.
But I'm going to say it for the final time, guys.
You start a war that triggers the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, choking out China.
China gets pissed.
Iran reopens the Strait for a toll.
So the U.S. then goes in and says, no, we're shutting it down.
Sounds like that's the intended condition.
The U.S. is exporting record amounts of crude in the Gulf just after we seized Venezuela.
I think it's pretty cut and dry.
So, why lie?
I don't know.
Whatever, man.
All I care about is what's true.
I'm sick of the politics and I'm sick of these people playing these stupid games.
So, go live in your stupid Wally world where you believe fake garbage for all I care.
The rest of us want to try and figure out what's happening in the world so we can better understand it and predict things and prepare for ourselves, our friends, and our families and advocate for a better future.
You guys want to go lie?
Go lie.
I'll leave it there.
Smash the like button, my friends.
You can follow me on X and Instagram at Timcast if you so choose.