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Feb. 3, 2026 - The Culture War - Tim Pool
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Second Civil War Declaration 00:03:02
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
Last month, a Republican declared that the Second Civil War has already begun.
It's not the first time we've heard something like this be said.
As most of you know, I've talked about the prospects of a civil war in this country happening quite a bit.
But this was an actual politician, a Republican in Indiana, saying the redistricting fight that we are seeing, where they're effectively eliminating all opposition voices in their respective states, this is a civil war, or at least it's the guaranteed precursor.
There are a series of events that have occurred over the past several years, which I think are indicative of a second civil war beginning.
I don't know if it's fair to say it started right now.
That's why the title is a quote from a politician saying it has.
There have been many prominent individuals, investors, billionaires saying it's going to happen.
And I think it's a high probability.
I don't know what it will look like.
I don't know the tactics that will be used, but I believe the conflict is already here.
Most of you know this.
And right now, as we look at Minnesota, more and more, the pundit class across the spectrum from left to right are saying it's civil war in Minnesota.
I'll give you a few examples.
I've got a video that I want to lead this segment off with for you guys, where an unknown man acting as de facto law enforcement pulls over an Uber driver to demand his papers.
Now, hold on.
Who is this authority structure?
How do they have a license plate database?
What gives them the right to physically assault people, and they do, and pull people over.
They're setting up barriers and checkpoints and demanding people's IDs.
I have a list of the precursors to civil war, signs that you are in one.
And guess what?
We hit all of them on the head with the hammer.
A few examples are the geographic hyperpolarization.
People have been fleeing New York to Florida, California to Texas, and those aren't the only places.
When you look at the 2030 census on congressional reapportionment, Texas and Florida are jumping four seats each, and the rest of the states are dropping down.
There's some other changes in between.
The left is going to lose a lot of political power.
But then you take a look at the redistricting fight.
And what's that?
Never before in the middle of a decade.
We do this after the census, 2020, 2030.
We count the people.
We say, here are the seats.
It started with Texas, but now you have all of these states gerrymandering with new maps to eliminate all opposition voices.
A great example already is Massachusetts.
It's already like this.
Despite being 40% conservative, they have zero Republican seats.
I got a map to show you.
And a point I brought up before, but I think bears repeating right now.
If Congress is going to be 100% state versus state, then what happens next?
Because I think that the answer is going to be more geographic hyperpolarization, which will result in more hyper-polarization of each congressional seat.
Second Civil War Riots 00:03:58
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
I'll explain more as we get into the video.
And then it's going to result in violence, like we're already seeing in Minnesota.
But don't take my word for it.
Republican has already declared it's begun.
So let's talk about the news, my friends.
Before we get started, make sure you head over to castbrew.com and buy delicious coffee, because I couldn't say nightmare dystopia without trying to sell you a product while I tell you the world is ending.
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I am going to be the first to point out the nightmarish reality of I'm doing a show and we sell a product to sustain the show and we're talking about the end being nigh.
It's crazy, right?
Will the dollars even be worth anything?
Have you all seen that movie Civil War?
So before I read about what this Republican said, I want you to watch this video so you can understand, my friends, the second civil war may be already upon us.
Check this video out from the Daily Caller News Foundation, Jorge Ventura, just from earlier today.
unidentified
Yeah, he's just our Somalian Uber driver, man.
You said his license plates are ice?
Doing good, yeah.
I was just saying, it looks like in our system, your plates came up as an ice plate.
That doesn't seem like it's the case, but I just wanted to come through and see what was up and talk to you, see how you were doing.
Okay, I figured, yeah.
He's clearly Somali.
Yeah, totally, totally.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
This is creepy, dude.
unidentified
Oh, yeah.
Well, glad to hear it.
What's your name?
How long have you guys been out here today?
Are we good though?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I do want to ask, what's the system you guys are using out here?
I mean, because it's obvious that what's wrong, right?
I mean, the guy was just a Somali Uber driver.ice.
Well, the thing is, ICE, you know, they're renting a lot of cars.
But yeah, you know, we'll take this off the list.
Yeah.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
So who are these guys running a license plate database, pulling people over and demanding their papers?
But wait, there's more.
Take a look at this.
In this video, anti-ICE rioters, rioters?
This is not a riot.
These are factions.
They're partisans.
They're blocking vehicles with out-of-state plates and they're demanding access to their papers.
Take a look at this video.
Okay, we're not going to play the audio because we don't need the song playing.
The vehicle waves and is allowed through their barricade.
And there's still more.
In these photos, we can see you've got barricades being set up in the street, blocking people from coming and going.
And in this video, the extremists went out and smashed out all the windows of all the vehicles on the street.
unidentified
Everybody.
All these fucking windows.
Every single fucking window.
Are you fucking kidding me?
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
These are just working class dudes.
And as you saw in the first video, they believe that everybody's ice.
unidentified
Ice is everywhere.
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
They're going to get you.
So what do they do?
They're attacking people.
They're setting up barricades.
Geographic Polarization 00:15:15
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
Republican declares second civil war has started in the U.S.
Okay, this was a month ago.
Oh, actually, this is two or three weeks ago.
But let's see what this guy has to say.
Is this legit?
And after we read this, I want to show you the signs you are in a civil war.
And then you're going to look at this and go, I think we might be in one.
News reports: Indiana State Senator Mike Gaskill, a Pendleton Republican, declared on Thursday that a second civil war has already started in the United States as he urged his colleagues to back and ultimately unsuccessful to back an ultimately unsuccessful state redistricting push by Trump.
I will submit to you that the second U.S. Civil War has already started.
They're just using surrogates.
I submit to you that that's accurate.
Despite Gaskill's remarks and significant pressure from Trump, the redistricting effort failed in the Indiana Senate on Thursday.
The legislative body rejected the mid-decade redistricting bill by a 19 to 31 vote.
So we know this about Indiana.
But let me show you this, my friends.
This is the map projection after redistricting.
You'll notice there's no swing districts anymore.
Let me actually pull up the current 270 to win based on the current maps as we know them.
Then you can take a look at the difference.
Let's see, we're going to go with the House interactive map here.
Load this bad boy in.
As you can see right now, the projection is 19 swing districts.
Republicans are losing right now based on the polling.
We can see that Democrats are projected to win 210 to Republicans 206 with 19 being toss-ups.
Those are the swing districts.
That's where politicking matters, where you try to convince someone you should vote for my political party.
Well, after redistricting, it'll look like this.
What the states are doing is they're, let's say a good example being Indiana.
Indiana was going to redistrict to eliminate their Democrat seats.
Well, the weak Republicans said, but don't.
So we're seeing this across the board.
Many of these states are seeking to completely eliminate.
If they have a simple majority in the state, they want to eliminate the Republican or Democrat districts.
And this is what's going to happen.
As you can see right here, this basically means the guaranteed Democrat 218 to Republican 217.
There's no elections.
When this happens, there is no election.
Why?
It's a foregone conclusion.
You already know which district is going which way based on the way they've structured these districts that you're not going to change this.
Now, maybe in 10 or 15 years, things might change based on geography, but it's basically saying that Congress will be composed of state versus state.
No longer will it be the people of the state have a mixed bag of opinions and some are more moderate and some are more Democrat or conservative.
It's literally going to be the furthest left.
Now, here's what ends up happening.
And then we'll jump to the Minnesota stuff and I'll show you the signs of why you're in a civil war.
See, what we've witnessed over the past decade is called geographic hyperpolarization.
I don't know if you need to say hyper.
It feels a bit redundant.
You could just say geographic polarization.
But the general idea is that people in New York are unhappy with how the Democrats are controlling the state, so they move to Florida.
Florida becomes deep red.
DeSantis wins by 20 points, but this means that New York becomes blue.
So here's how it works.
Let's say you get a district in New York, a congressional district, and it's 40% Republican, 60% Democrat.
Let's say of those Democrats, 10% are lunatic socialists.
Well, the candidate comes in and says, if I can get all of the Democrats to guaranteed win.
However, there's a primary.
And this means that with only 10% far left, you get 40% Republican.
If you go a little bit more moderate, you got a bigger pool to choose from to actually win.
So the Democrats battle it out in their primary.
And the far-left socialist loses because the moderates, they're right-leaning conservatives, they're urban conservatives.
They're going to vote for the more moderate personality because, well, the Republicans just don't win, right?
Well, what happens when these moderates and the conservatives flee the state because the Democrats have gone insane?
Eliminate that entire pool.
And now we're looking at purely just Democrats.
No longer are the moderates desires a consideration.
The primary happens.
The far leftist all of a sudden is competitive.
And this shifts the Overton window in New York drastically leftwards.
They no longer have an opportunity to secure votes for moderates.
The same is true for Florida.
The more left-leaning candidates are going to lose as the state becomes deeper red, and politicians say there's a bigger pool to choose from to the right.
Although you're not really getting the most staunch radicals on the right like you do on the left.
This means that Congress itself, okay, so let's just, I want to make sure I slow this down and say this cleanly and articulately as I can.
Congress itself, if New York no longer has to pander to any amount of moderates or conservatives, this gives socialists a bigger edge and a louder voice, meaning the person who ultimately wins the congressional seat will be further left.
Then they will go to DC and you are going to have 218 far-left socialist lunatics and you're going to have 217 staunch constitutional Republicanists.
You're not going to have moderate votes anymore.
So the Democrats get in after redistricting.
It is state versus state.
And it is far ideology versus far ideology.
But let's take a look.
And then we'll jump to the Minnesota stuff.
I just asked, go to Google.
Signs a country is falling into civil war.
Signs a country is falling into civil war include the rise of anocracy, partial democracy with weak institutions, intense political polarization based on identity, race, religion, and ethnicity, and the dehumanization of opponents.
Key indicators are declining trust in democratic institutions, organized political violence, and formerly dominant groups fearing a loss of power.
Now, wouldn't we all just go ahead and say that's absolutely what is happening right now in the United States?
But wait, how about we read the bullet points?
Let's try this.
Political structure breakdown.
The country moves towards anocracy, a weak, unstable, or partial democracy that mixes democratic and authoritarian elements.
Well, yeah, I think we're already there.
unidentified
Why?
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
Well, we still have this illusion of democracy.
We're still voting, and there still are certain processes in place, right?
But Democrats have already arrested Trump and his lawyers.
They raided his home.
Trump's countering by going after Letitia James, Adam Schiff, with mortgage fraud claims.
Not very strong, but Comey was also arrested for lying.
And we'll see where that goes.
Certainly the right is not winning, but the attempts are there.
Identity politics is particularly really easy.
The left hates white people.
We get it.
Political violence, plainly obvious.
Charlie Kirk is dead.
They tried to kill Trump.
Dehumanizing rhetoric.
Yeah, that one's very obvious.
I mean, Hassan Piker just got banned for saying Zionist pigs on Twitch.
And that's just the most recent example of dehumanization.
Calling everybody Nazis and then telling people to be violent.
Loss of status for dominant groups.
This one, I think, is absolutely true.
White people are not having kids anymore and they were just the de facto country.
You are seeing Christian conservatives being challenged by a rising multicultural democracy.
That's just reality.
Weakened institutions, institutions and corruption.
Judicial police and electoral institutions become politicized.
Duh.
They arrested Trump's lawyers.
Okay, by all means, argued Trump's a bad guy.
They arrested his lawyers.
Okay, you have a constitutional right to be represented.
They didn't care.
Now you've got judges that are saying, I ain't going to do what I have to do, and blocking Trump, and there's a fight between judges.
Militia formation is fairly obvious.
The right has already had militias, but the left has been forming them.
And civil strife.
Roadblocks, checkpoints appear, indicating a breakdown in central authority.
And that's what I already showed you.
All of these indicators are right before our very eyes.
So is it a civil war yet?
Well, honestly still, I don't know.
Of course, people are saying it is.
From the Hill.
Minnesota's standoff with Trump administration stokes fears of civil war.
Local officials have deemed the surge of immigration enforcement officers a federal invasion, doubling down in the courts and in public remarks as federal confrontations with Minnesota residents turned violent then deadly.
The fatal shooting of 37-year-old intensive care nurse Alex Predty brought the standoff to a cliff edge, and both Trump and the state seem to have changed course.
But as the federal government goes toe-to-toe with Democratic state leaders, experts warn of a pressure cooker for civil war.
The problem is, these crises are like streetcars.
There's one coming along every five minutes.
And while we might be able to avoid severe violence once, twice, three times, at some point, we're going to stop, okay, and something may happen.
Thousands of immigration enforcement officers descended on Minneapolis and St. Paul's streets amid the administration's so-called Operation Metro surge, spurred by a sprawling welfare fraud scandal involving the local Somali community.
They're going to mention Predty's shooting, the shooting of Renee Good as well.
I mean, is it Fort Sumter? Asks the governor.
It's a physical assault.
It's an armed force assaulting that's killing my constituents, my citizens.
Kevin Wade, a Civil War-era historian and professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, said he thinks a path to civil war is neither inevitable nor lacking off-ramps.
But in April 1861, when Confederate insurgents fired the first shots on the war on the South Carolina Seafort, there was a much clearer sense that the Rubicon had been crossed than today.
I want to fact check that, because I don't know that that's true, fired first at Fort Sumter.
Is that what he's referring to?
Oh, okay, it is confirmed.
Confederate forces fired the first shot at Fort Sumter.
Edmund Ruffin, the signal shot was ordered by Captain George S. James and fired by Lieutenant Henry S. Farley from Fort Johnson.
I just need to stress and make sure this is important to you.
The Confederates then were Democrats, and the Democrats are much in the exact same insurgent position they were back then as well.
The Confederates were wrong to try and secede from the Union, in my view.
I believe that, let me give you a quick moral and philosophical view that I have.
And by all means disagree, comment below and tell me why you disagree.
But the argument is this.
The American revolutionaries did not immediately want a free nation.
They wanted representation.
They weren't getting it.
This is oppression.
You're being told what you can and can't do without a say and whether you can.
And in the UK, they had parliament.
So the colonists, upset with parliament, had petitioned, failed.
They petitioned the king, failed.
And they said, okay, then what is this?
We revolt.
In the American Civil War, the South had their say, had their election, and lost.
They were invited to representation.
They still had members of Congress and the Senate.
They still had an opportunity to fight, but were losing the moral battle.
So, despite the fact they had adequate representation, they decided to break the deal where blood and treasure had been sacrificed to admit these states into the Union.
And they said, we're going to leave.
Because we lost the Democratic game that we all agreed to play, we're going to go do it somewhere else.
And this resulted in some others.
Texas, for instance, geographically isolated, decided to join largely for that reason.
And I believe it was wrong to do.
Today, the Democrats lost fair and square and are actively resisting federal law enforcement operations.
These laws have been in the books for decades.
The American people voted we wanted this taken care of.
There's an election coming up in the midterms.
Instead, both Democrats and Republicans take the blame for this.
They are redistricting to make sure there's not going to be a legitimate voice of the American people, just factions bickering and refusing to drop it.
How can a multicultural democracy and a constitutional republic coexist in the same borders?
They can't.
The Hill goes on to say, the tug of war of state and federal power has been a feature of Trump's presidency and immigration and crime crackdowns targeted at cities and states led by Democrats.
Minnesota's state and local officials have sued to get immigration and customs enforcement out of the state, judges weighing whether to block the surge.
Frey has said that Minneapolis will not enforce federal immigration laws, which Trump described as playing with fire.
Matthew Pinsker, a historian and author of the substack, What Would Lincoln Do?, pointed to the exchange as an example of the deeply rooted debate over whether the federal government can direct state and local officials to enforce its laws, stemming from the 10th Amendment's anti-commandeering doctrine.
It goes back to the 1850s in the Fugitive Slave Act, which both Pinsker and Waite referenced as a historical parallel to the conflict in Minnesota today.
The law required the return of enslaved people to their enslavers, even if found in free states.
But many free states passed personal liberty laws that effectively obstructed the federal measure.
The historians compared the effort to sanctuary cities.
It's a serious legal debate that can't be resolved by firing shots at each other on social media.
You have to let the process play out in the courts.
The Democrats' effort in the long run will be to make second-class citizens.
You can come into this country and work, but you don't have citizenship.
You can't vote.
This is a horrifying system.
I'd prefer legal migrants coming to this country, filling out the paperwork properly, waving little American flags, getting jobs, and the right to vote like everybody else.
Democrats would prefer second-class citizens getting paid a pittance, cleaning your bathroom floors.
The Supreme Court in December rejected Trump's bid to send troops to Chicago, saying the president must be able to execute laws with the regular force of the U.S. to justify, U.S. military, to justify calling up the National Guard.
Minnesota state rep Aisha Gomez told the Hill in an interview that local officials and residents are fighting on every front, that the state's attorney's office is using every single lever that they have at their disposal to oppose the operation.
She warned, however, against placing all odds on the courts.
Despite the federal government's use of force in Minnesota, it's not a civil war, Sateman said.
He explained that civil war requires a sustained campaign of violence by both the government and an opposing force.
It's not a civil war unless there's two sides to it.
And so the question really is, will the resistance to Trump lead to violence?
I'd just like to point out the Syrian Civil War had like 12 different factions.
I understand that these people are academics and they're learned and such, but I just at least will argue that.
The Syrian Civil War was like 12 factions early on.
They called it a civil war.
And those factions then began to coalesce.
Okay, we are seeing these de facto law enforcement groups forming.
They are taking over authority.
How much longer until they make uniforms?
And they say, we need to be able to easily identify our comrades.
So they start wearing armbands or brown shirts.
Factions Coalescing 00:07:28
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
A 2024 simulation by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law at the University of Pennsylvania determined that a violent confrontation between state and federal military forces in major U.S. city could start a civil war.
Claire Finkelstein, a law professor and founder of the center, wrote in The Guardian that the state of playing Minnesota closely mirrors the exercise, which she said was seen as feasible by senior ex-military and government officials who participated in it, especially after the Supreme Court's decision on presidential immunity for official conduct.
She noted that a crisis precipitating civil war might move faster than the courts can keep up, leaving state officials without effective judicial relief and service members defying unlawful orders as a last line of defense.
The political climate doesn't help.
Former rep Marjorie Taylor Greene, who last year repeatedly called for a national divorce between red and blue states, warned Republicans and Democrats to take off their political blinders to see the stirring conflict.
You are all being incited into a civil war, she said this week.
Yet none of it solves any of the real problems that we all face.
And tragically, people are dying.
Ex-Minnesota Governor Jetson Tura, a political independent, suggested the state should secede and join Canada.
Well, Republican lawmakers accused Waltz of fomenting civil war by authorizing his state's National Guard to be staged and ready after Good was killed.
Finsker said a lesson from the 1850s, more like today than the 1860s, but the beginning of the Civil War period, is that words matter, and both rhetoric and sporadic violence could escalate.
Since Predty's death, both Minnesota officials and the Trump administration have taken steps to tamp down the tensions.
It doesn't matter.
None of that matters.
Trump, of course, as an older guy and Waltz as an older guy are going to be like, we better slow things down.
But young people don't care.
You're not going to convince a 30-year-old guy to give up after what the left has done.
The left's worldview, what they've done to Trump, what they've done to Republican politicians, how they lie, cheat, steal.
I mean, that's all a bit vagaries, but how about they advocate for child sex changes?
That's enough, right?
They advocate for open borders and illegal immigration.
There's no forgiving that worldview.
There's no coming to an agreement on it.
I'm sorry, but this country is hyper-polarized between those who would argue abortion can happen at nine months, like they do in Colorado, or no abortions at all in Oklahoma.
This is political hyperpolarization.
As more and more people leave their states, conservatives from California, conservatives from New York, and they move to other states.
California and New York become deeper blue.
They're going to enforce a whole bunch of crazy laws.
Texas and Florida become more red, and they're going to go the other direction.
In which case, what happens?
The hypothetical I've entertained, which I don't know necessarily is necessarily apt to this current circumstance, but a woman in Oklahoma is seven months pregnant with a baby.
For whatever reason, she decides to leave her significant other.
She argues he's abusive.
He argues he's not.
He argues she just wants to change heart.
In the early hours of the morning, this pregnant woman flees without saying anything to her significant other, gets in a vehicle with a friend, and they start rushing as fast as they can to Colorado so she can get an abortion.
She thinks, she says, if I have this child, I will be trapped in this abusive man forever.
The left says, he's an abuser.
Of course, she should terminate the pregnancy.
It's her right.
It's her choice.
The man says, I am absolutely not an abuser.
She's cheating on me, and she's now having second thoughts about having a family with me.
She's going to kill my son.
Oklahoma says, absolutely, she's going to kill your son.
Colorado says her body her choice.
So what happens?
What happens if she crosses that state line with the intention to terminate that baby that Oklahoma calls murder?
Will they charge her with conspiracy to commit murder?
Will this pit Oklahoma and Colorado against each other and a weak federal government bifurcated with no ability to mediate here?
What happens if that father says, I am going to do whatever it takes to save the life of my child?
So he gets a posse and they go to Colorado.
This is how these things begin.
That's more of a bleeding Kansas type scenario, but I think what we're actually seeing is immigration-based, not abortion-based.
We saw bleeding Kansas where people were fighting over whether the territory would be a slave or a free state.
They were murdering civilians.
They're killing each other.
You had the Underground Railroad where slaves were escaping to the north, and then you had northern states refusing to give back the slaves.
Democrats today don't want the illegal immigrants to be removed because who's going to clean their bathrooms, right?
That's what they keep saying.
They made the argument that is about protecting families or whatever, but they open the border to illegal immigrants and then argue that someone's got to do the job they won't do.
Well, once again, the government's trying to enforce the law and Democrats want their cheap labor.
They want their slaves kept by them.
Only this time they've convinced them it's the right thing for them.
So ultimately, what do you get?
I honestly don't see how you can calm things down.
I do not believe it is a possibility.
I really don't.
Scripps News says, what factors could lead America to another civil war?
This is referring to the same exercise.
They saw situations like Portland in 2020, Philadelphia, the killing of an American citizen.
That's now happened twice.
You really want to feel the federal and state law enforcement officers are working together, but they're not.
Let me wrap by just saying this as we look at the redistricting stuff and how the redistricting is the beginnings of the war between states.
Predty.
He was a violent, radicalized individual.
It's sad that he died.
But he tried fighting cops while armed.
He was obstructing.
This is a felony.
He had coordinated with a group, also a felony.
He resisted arrest, and it was a tragic, unfortunate circumstance.
It appears that one agent saw his gun, grabbed the gun from him.
A shot went out somehow.
Maybe the gun was an accidental discharge or a defective discharge.
And then these cops see Pratty holding a black object, his phone.
Someone yells gun, gun, gun.
They hear a bang.
They shoot and kill him.
Renee Goode.
Her tires accelerate to the left towards the officer, which means he likely heard the engine accelerate before her tires spin on the ice and then turn right.
All he can see is the hood of the car driving towards him, and he shoots three times in about a second.
It's a tragic circumstance.
But the reality is these circumstances were both created by the individuals in question.
Renee Goode did not need to try to accelerate to flee with an agent in front of her, no less.
Blame the agent for being in front of her, but she's the one who pressed the gas.
Pratti didn't need to try and fight cops and resist arrest.
He had done it before and he did it there.
Neither of these people should have died, but this is what happens when you choose to fight the way you do.
The left is radicalized by this.
They say innocent people murdered, and they're using it as justification to expand their communistic control centers, their checkpoints.
How does this stop?
You tell me.
I want to be wrong.
But every single time we've had this conversation on this show, I've been right.
I'm not saying about literally every fact or circumstance, just the fact that is we are going to see escalation because neither side is willing to accept the other side's argument.
There are communists who want this country to burn.
They don't care if Renee Goode was innocent or Predty was innocent.
They're usable.
And there are people who genuinely believe that Predty was murdered, an innocent man, and that Renee Good, an innocent one, murdered.
They believe it.
You're not going to convince conservatives.
It's never going to happen, nor vice versa.
No Convincing Conservatives 00:00:48
tim pool ▲ ● ▼
So then what?
Certainly there are some people in the middle of the road that may be convinced, but unfortunately, I would say this.
It does not appear there is an off-ramp.
It looks like we are in a bleeding Kansas type phase with Minnesota, bleeding Minnesota, and we're going to have Democrats take the midterm.
I don't see how the Republicans can hold off to win 2028.
If that happens, redistricting doesn't matter in 2030.
It is going to be an ideological bifurcation by which the younger generations, more radicalized, refuse to accept the world of the other.
It's a sad reality, and I hope we find our way through it or to avoid it.
I'll wrap it there.
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Thank y'all so much, Frank.
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