Trump ENTERING Iran WAR Will END MAGA Base, Dems WIN If GOP SPLITS Over War ft. Batya Ungar-Sargon
BUY CAST BREW COFFEE TO SUPPORT THE SHOW - https://castbrew.com/ Become A Member And Protect Our Work at http://www.timcast.com Host: Tim Pool @Timcast (everywhere) Guest: Batya Ungar-Sargon @bungarsargon (X) My Second Channel - https://www.youtube.com/timcastnews Podcast Channel - https://www.youtube.com/TimcastIRL Trump ENTERING Iran WAR Will END MAGA Base, Dems WIN If GOP SPLITS Over War ft. Batya Ungar-Sargon
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Trump's most favorable pollster warns it could all be over for MAGA.
The Guardian says Republican hawks versus MAGA isolationists, the internal war that could decide Trump's Iran response.
According to Newsweek, President Trump's most favorable pollster has warned it could be all over for MAGA if the president gets the U.S. more deeply involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel.
Kiss the Republican majority goodbye for the next decade.
Rich Barris, the director of Big Data Poll, wrote an X. If he pulls the trigger, it's all over for MAGA.
Newsweek reached out to Bears for further comment.
Big Data Poll has given Trump the highest approval rating of plus 19 of any pollster in his second term so far.
It is one of just two pollsters that are yet to record a negative approval rating, although its most recent survey recorded a major drop-off, giving Trump a rating of just plus one.
A recent poll by the Reagan Institute conducted before Israel launched its surprise attack on Iran's military and nuclear program on Friday shows that a majority of Republicans support Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
However, polling has shown also that Republican voters are worried about the U.S. being drawn into a military conflict in the Middle East.
Now, my friends, Batia Unger Sargon views herself as a mega lefty.
And I'm curious to see.
How she sees all of this and have a conversation with her.
So let's bring her in.
We will grab this interview, pulling up the site right now.
So now I'm going to go easy on you for the interview, I guess.
No, I'm kidding.
But I do appreciate it.
There's a statement out.
Rich Barris, Newzik, wrote about this saying that if Trump enters the war in Iran, it will be the end of MAGA and the Republican majority for 10 years.
I'm curious what you think about this ongoing rift between—I mean, the mega coalition is split right now.
So, no, and I'm sort of a skeptic of the narrative that there's a real split in the MAGA movement.
I think there's a split in the, like, influencers of the MAGA movement.
But the actual MAGA voters, the actual base is quite united around the position that President Trump has staked out.
So, yes, in the influencers, you have people like Mark Levin, who is, like, extremely pro-Israel and wants us to go full hog and bomb Iran.
And then you have the Tucker Carlson.
Who are pretty anti-Israel and think that we should be doing nothing here, including not even supporting Israel defensively, and we should be dropping Israel, as he put it.
So you have this, like, among the influencers, this dichotomy of pro-Israel, America first, anti-Israel, anti-intervention, America first, and then pro-Israel, massive intervention, regime change, let's say, okay?
But neither of these positions is the position that the president has stated.
What the president is doing is he's very pro-Israel, but he's very anti-war.
And so he has defended Israel, helped Israel in its defensive capacities.
But from his point of view, it's very clear that he is trying to still negotiate that deal.
He believes 100 percent Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
On behalf of America, that's the America First position.
That's not on Israel's behalf.
That's on our behalf as American citizens.
But from his point of view, he's using Bibi and Israel's military supremacy to try to force Iran to the table to sign a deal, a peace deal, in which they would commit to that.
So if you have the pro-Israel pro-intervention on the one side and the anti-Israel anti-intervention on the other side, what the president has done is this kind of pro-Israel anti-war.
I think Trump has basically made this our position.
But I think most I think for the people who, you know, I've always been anti-war.
What that means is, the way I describe it is, I'm not some staunch libertarian, never get involved for any reason ever.
It's that the threshold of proof and justification must be very, very high.
Or it is very, very high.
And I don't think it's currently met.
And while I agree, Trump has, like right now, the public surface level...
It's going to be defensive.
The Trump administration has stated we are asserting a defensive position.
I think the fear that most people have, you know, Bannon, Posobiec, even people like me, is that we're going to get drawn into this.
Trump may be saying now, we don't want to be involved in a war with Iran, and we're not going to, but what happens when Iranian forces or someone trying to instigate the war, be it deep state or even U.S. standard intelligence assets, false flag, or we get legitimately attacked in, say, the Strait of Hormuz?
It feels like the dominoes are falling over and we're going to be involved no matter what.
So I also, like you, you know, I came up under the regime of these false neoconservative quagmires in the Middle East.
I'm with you.
First of all, I think the Iranians are being extremely careful not to touch our soldiers, which is very wise of them.
So they are working really hard to meet that bar that the president has set for them.
Second of all, you know, I think...
We may end up attacking only because Israel's success was so overwhelming.
I mean, to control the airspace, the skies over Iran in five days.
I guarantee you the Israelis are as surprised as everybody else that it was so easy.
I think the president might see this as an opportunity.
You know, for our bomber jets to fly over and start dropping bunker busters on Fordow, I mean, for now, I'm against that.
I'm not sure if I could be convinced of it.
But the idea that that would inexorably lead to the kind of regime change that we saw, or our level of investment in regime change that we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, to me, that's a little bit not—I don't think that's true.
It's very clear that Trump could pull this off without us being the ones to have to oversee what comes next.
I think I'm still with you.
Right now, my position is they should come to the table.
I really hope they come to the table.
But I think from the president's point of view, it could be that this is too big of an opportunity to pass up.
I was looking at last night on TimCast.IRL, we looked at Pew data that shows as of from 2022 to 25, the 18 to 49-year-olds in this country have shifted heavily anti-Israel.
By 15 points.
In 2022, 18- to 49-year-olds, 35% anti-Israel.
Today it's 50%.
I should say Israel critical is probably a better way to say it.
They're critical of U.S. involvement.
I think that we're likely going to get involved in this.
I think it is going to cause a rift among at least, let's just say the conservatarian and libertarian portion of Trump's base.
I think it's going to rip that from it.
I think the Trump administration is going to be dragged into this because if they wait, 10 years from now, support for Israel is going to be so low, there will never be an opportunity for the U.S. to justify any kind of action in Iran ever.
And it's been the U.S.'s position, not necessarily the Trump administration, but the U.S., to remove the government of Iran for decades now.
So it just seems like an inevitability.
The problem then is, I do think...
The U.S. just wants to secure the trade routes in the region.
We don't want to be involved in regime change.
The problem is that's the domino that falls over that eventually sees us in a regime change war.
So right now we've got in the Strait of Hormuz, a tanker is on fire.
They say it collided with another vehicle.
Now a lot of people are saying it's not directly tied to the war, but It's causing chaos.
The Persian Gulf can't be cut off.
These are American trade partners.
You've got Kuwait.
You've got Iran.
You've got—well, not necessarily trade partners with Kuwait, but you've got Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia.
They're not going to accept the Persian Gulf getting cut off.
So the fear is— The U.S. is going to dispatch security forces to the Strait of Hormuz for the purpose of keeping it open.
And then someone's going to get bombed.
One of the U.S. assets will get bombed because either some Houthi rebel group, Iranian-backed militia group, or Iran itself will attack to assert some kind of military dominance in the region.
Or the worst case, conspiratorial scenario is a false flag by someone who wants to instigate that war.
Oh, I could see us retaliating, but I just don't see why that leads inevitably to regime change.
I don't think President Trump is a person who gets dragged into things.
In fact, the opposite.
I think he really resents that.
I think that's what we saw with Zelensky.
The moment that meeting turned back He literally set the entire global economy on fire because he thought that that would be good for the working class, right?
Like this is not a person who can be convinced out of his opinion.
So I could see us, yeah, giving the bunker busters.
I could see us retaliating.
I don't see him getting involved in regime change.
He likes the mullahs where they are right now because Khomeini is very weak.
That's exactly where he wants him so he can force him to make that deal.
Every time Trump tweets or talks or says something, you can see exactly how he is plotting this to get them exactly to where he wants them.
So I think he's using the Israelis rather than the other way around.
So the report is that Trump told Israel not to strike the Ayatollah.
And I think there's several reasons.
I think what you just mentioned, it leaves them weak, threatened, and it creates a leadership that fears death.
So they're going to say, let's hold back so I live.
But I also think the reason is, if you were to take out the actual governmental leadership, you end up with an ISIS-style Iran of chaos you can't control.
Right now, Trump's going to have a terrified Ayatollah being like, my government's going to collapse, I'm going to die.
Trump's forcing him to the table.
I'm hoping that is the case with Israel.
But what I will say to your point about Trump getting dragged into things, it certainly looks that way with what Israel's been doing.
You know, Israel's claimed that Trump knew the whole time they were going to do this, despite the fact that Trump was negotiating with Iran.
Tucker Carlson stated that he knew Trump was negotiating in good faith with Iran to get them to back down, and then Israel claimed he wasn't.
See, I think those could both exist at the same time.
He was negotiating in real good faith and said to them, you have 60 days to make a deal that I approve of.
Like that does not conflict with him telling the Israelis, give me this time to negotiate.
I'm not backing you up until I've had my time.
So I think Tucker Carlson has been falsely creating this narrative where it's true, Yeah, he had that meeting with Netanyahu in the Oval Office.
Netanyahu said to him, I want a bomb.
And he said, no, I'm negotiating in good faith right now.
I'm giving them 60 days.
We'll talk then.
They talked then, and then they said, all right, go for it.
Let's see what you can get, you know, with the bad cop side of things.
So, you know, it seems like, here's the thing about Israel.
Like, our interests are frequently very aligned with Israel's, but they're not identical.
And that's okay for an ally.
They're aligned more often than they aren't.
And the idea that they are the superpower, that they are controlling the strings is just so ridiculous.
Just look at the history every single time.
You know, they love to say AIPAC is controlling American politics.
Every time APEC pulled out all the stops to stop some sort of, you know, military deal, selling weapons to this one Iran deal here or there, they lost.
Every single time.
The president is guided by his moral compass.
He has a vision for peace in the Middle East.
He wants to be known as the man who brought global peace.
I mean, it's obvious that's what he's trying to do.
And he sees Iran having a nuclear weapon as being anathema to what he thinks will be the greatest achievement for the Americans.
And I think he deserves credit for trying to do that.
Normalization of economics between Israel and other Arabic nations.
And Trump talked about wanting to end the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Not to mention crossing the DMZ into North Korea.
I think Trump really, really wants a legacy of the global savior.
He wants to be beloved.
He wants to go down as this great man.
Here's what I hope.
You're giving me some optimism on this one.
I'm hoping it's Trump's big ask, right?
Right now you got all these MAGA people saying, holy crap, we're going to go regime change.
We're going to go boots on the ground.
I'm hoping that Trump is actually, and this may be wishful thinking, but it's a big ask where he wants Iran to think that, that he's capable of this because he really just wants them to back down and surrender completely.
Like, okay, we're done.
And instead of having – I think this is fair.
If any world leader given the option, would you prefer it if your enemy surrendered or you had to go in and waste money and resources?
They'd say, I'll take the surrender.
So maybe that's what he's doing.
I want to believe.
I want to believe.
But I'm terrified that John Bolton – I know he's not there now, but he represented a lot of the interests of the military-industrial complex in the deep state.
He said, we will be celebrating in Tehran, and that was when he was in the first Trump administration.
I do think it's fair to say about a lot of steps between if the U.S. supplies weapons to Israel and they bomb Iran versus if the U.S. bombs Iran or the U.S. gets involved directly on the ground.
I think for me, having grown up in the Iraq-Afghan war coming of age around that time, We tend to view, like people like me and the millennials will view war and foreign policy rather singularly.
And it's entirely fair to say maybe Trump is a different guy.
And I think so.
And just because we had this period in the 2000s where we engaged in these, what I would call fraudulent invasions, doesn't mean every foreign policy action will always be exactly that.
And think about how different the Middle East is right now.
Trump just got back from this trip where he visited with the Saudis who hate Iran, the Qataris who are Iran's allies, and then the UAE who are Israel's allies, right?
Like, he has vision into the future.
He has an idea of who could be applied to, you know, in the future to take on some of the roles that historically would have been our role as the United States, but now, what?
I mean, it's a totally different Middle East.
That said, I think you're right to be nervous about it.
I'm also nervous about it.
I'm not really on board with the U.S. getting involved offensively.
But even if they do, I think we should give the president a little bit of credit.
Honestly, I don't think that that's about being pro-Israel or anti-Israel.
The American people are very, very philo-Semitic.
They're very protective of their Jewish neighbors.
So American Jews are like, they don't realize this because most of them are Democrats, which is very sad, although it's changing, thank God.
But the American people are the most philo-Semitic people on the planet.
They're just like the American working class.
They're just very attached to, a lot of them are Christians.
Now, when it comes to Israel, it's a little more complicated because Israel is a sovereign nation.
When I see those polls, I think what young people are saying is, look, we don't want to be paying for it.
I don't think they're saying, like, we don't like Israel.
We don't recognize that it's a strategic interest in the region.
I think they're saying something very fair, which is, like, Israel is a very rich country.
Every Israeli has universal health care.
Like, why are we paying for their weapons?
And I think that's a completely fair position when I sometimes lean towards.
I think the Israelis are now having a real conversation about, like, maybe we've paid a cost for, like, being a client state of the United States when we can afford our own weapons.
I think that's going to start to shift as well, and I think it should.
To me, like, the problem with the universities, it's really not the anti-Semitism, which is obviously there.
It's like the fact that they manufacture contempt for the working class.
Like, that's what I really fucking hate about it, is like, people graduate from there with a surefire path to, you know, the American dream, and they come out having been educated to think that.
That, like, people who work for a living with their hands are somehow lesser than.
I fucking hate that so much more than the anti-Semitism, which I think is a sideshow.
I am admittedly probably so jaded, I'm just staring at all of this, the poly market numbers, I'm like, the US is going to bomb Iran, and the next thing we know, there's going to be one circumstance after another where we have no choice but to get involved.
We're going to have security forces in the region, our men and women in uniform are going to get bombed by some Iranian backed group.
Trump's going to say, we will not tolerate a single death.
He doesn't want the legacy of Joe Biden.
I hope and I beg and I pray that his So maybe.
Maybe.
So I will say this.
Fair point to Batia.
And I think Trump does deserve a bit of benefit of the doubt.
I really do think so.
He's trying really hard to maintain a promising legacy.
He's changed his position many times when his base has lobbied him on social media.
Trump isn't the guy who just listens to big business.
You know, we had that moment where Trump came out and said, you know, we got to protect the farmers.
A lot of these farms, they got illegal immigrants.
You know that they're good people.
They work here for 20 years.
They're not committing any crimes.
And everybody got mad.
The base said, no, we are not going to give special privileges to big business.
Small farms don't have that privilege.
Well, guess what?
Trump backtracked.
He said, we're not going to do it.
No exemptions.
No exceptions.
We're going to start deporting.
I think it's fair to say that Trump is very, very concerned.
And I'll tell you this, too.
I was shocked to see.
That Trump had called Tucker Carlson kooky.
Because I can tell you this, those guys are friends.
And I'm pretty dang sure Tucker can just call the president on the phone and say, Mr. President.
In fact, there are numerous stories about how Tucker met with Trump and has given him advice on numerous occasions.
I really do think that Trump takes it to heart when he hears Tucker Carlson put out a statement.
Because Trump knows Tucker.
He knows Tucker's got a powerful position and he's influential whether he wants to say it or not.
Trump said maybe he can get a television deal and then people will listen.
Yeah, he's getting millions on every show he does per night.
He's one of the top podcasts in the world right now.
Tucker did not lose influence simply because he's not on cable TV anymore.
The people who follow him still do.
Granted, he's probably not getting the same thing that he actually might be getting more.
His influence among the older generation probably went down because 70 plus year olds are watching Fox News and he was getting like 5 million per night.
Crazy.
But in the key demo, I think Tucker's still doing really well.
So I'm hoping that as long as we all maintain that pressure.
And again, I'm going to stress this.
I'm not, you know, I consider myself anti-intervention, anti-war, but I'm not.
You don't see me doing this.
I don't go on X and scream.
I'm not one of these staunch, hardcore dudes.
That's why people call me a milquetoast fence-sitter.
Obviously, I have opinions.
They just want me to be a revolutionary.
I am not.
I am a reformer.
This means that I try to move the needle as much as I can without breaking it off.
And there are a lot of people that their whole view is, no, never, not ever.
On so many issues.
And my attitude is, what can we accomplish today?
That's why I voted for Trump, despite the fact that I don't view him as a perfect avatar of everything I believe in.
And when people say, well, I'm not going to vote for him because he's not the candidate I wanted.
I wanted somebody else.
I say, okay, but does he get you a lot of things that are good?
Yeah, but I don't want to support the two-party system.
Okay, well, listen.
The two-party system has primaries.
The Democrat primary is busted, and they have coronations.
They don't have elections.
But on the Republican side, Trump shows you actually can get your guy to win, even if he's somewhat libertarian or otherwise.
If you guys do the groundwork, it is possible.
The primary is the process by which the candidates rise up.
I don't care if it's just two people at the end of the day.
We had a whole primary season, and the people who made it made it.
Trump broke through that system.
So I want to take one And that means Trump may be doing things that I don't like, but I'm not going to sit here and be like, throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I'm going to say, well, Trump got rid of DEI in contracting.
Trump's pushing back against DEI in schools and public works.
Donald Trump is working on tax cut things that I like.
The Doge cuts were fantastic.
They've codified some of them halfway, so I think the House voted on them.
Doge was great in gutting USAID.
We got so many wins.
It's been exceptional.
Now Trump may get us entrenched in Iran.
Bad thing.
We keep up the pressure, we express ourselves, and we say, Mr. President, we deeply care about this issue.
We do not want regime change.
Now, I talked to Sebastian Gorka a month or two ago at this point, and he said, we are not going to have these long quagmire regime change wars, but we will strike targets.
And I think that's a compromise.
Look, a lot of people are going to say, Tim, no.
No world police, no military strikes.
Listen, if the U.S. has assets in a region and we have treaties and we simply say, if you hit us, we hit you back, I kind of shrug and say, you know, look, escalation can occur, but I certainly see that as a compromise.
If you come to me and say, we're going to put boots on the ground in a foreign country and pull out their government, be there for 20 years, I say, no.
No way.
It's a waste of our money.
It hurts the—it's damaging to the brave men and women in uniform and to the younger generation that's supposed to be inspired by what it means to protect America.
I think there's so much wrong with it.
A waste of money is the biggest thing.
The funneling of money in directions that I think is ultimately bad for this country, neglecting our southern border, neglecting our own culture, the people of this country, our birth rates collapsing, our economy, our infrastructure, the plumbing, the roads, the bridges.
No, no, no, no, no.
If you come and say, We got people bombing trade routes, so we're going to surgically strike them with drones.
Everybody gets mad.
They say, Donald Trump increased the drone strikes by 432%.
I say, shut up.
Like, it's this all-or-nothing, zero-sum game BS.
Donald Trump upped the drone strikes.
Yeah, I don't like it, but the reason he did was because he was pulling personnel back.
As U.S. personnel came back, he wanted to maintain security in the region with a minimal play.
So drone strikes went up.
But U.S. personnel on the ground were coming back out.
You'd have to do something like this.
I think that's the play.
I don't think it's perfect, but I got my fingers crossed that Trump's going to be the guy.
I certainly hope so, my friends.
Smash that like button.
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We got our friend Russell Brand coming up right now.
Let me, I believe it's Russell Brand.
Sometimes it changes, but you know, it's usually Russell.
We got Russell Brand coming up in just about a minute, who is going to be live talking about MAGA divided.
Trump turns on Tucker as MAGA is split over the U.S. war with Iran.
I think Batya makes an interesting point.
She says we're not.
It's the punditry class.
I actually kind of agree with her.
I do.
I do.
But let me caveat that.
The influential people in the pro-Trump space.
Can change and shape opinions.
If we're talking about right now a simple idea, Trump wants limited military engagement with Iran, limited and no direct involvement, I actually think you'll find a majority of Americans are probably in favor of that.
If the issue is intervention, that's where the real divide is.
So it's not that Tucker is wrong or that Mark Levin is wrong.
Now, hold on.
What I'm saying is...
I certainly disagree with Mark Levin and more so agree with Tucker.
My point is what Trump is doing may not reflect what either of these personalities actually want.
My friends, we're going to send you on your way to hang out with Russell Brand.
This is your Rumble morning lineup.
I am Tim Poole, your host for the noon hour.
You guys rock.
I really do appreciate you guys hanging out.
Make sure you check out TimCast IRL tonight at 8 p.m.
Massive.
Crowder is too big.
Crowder, you got a great show.
And shout out to the Mug Club.
He's the number one stream in the country on average.
This is a big breaking news story.
Someone might spike.
If some streamer beefs with someone, they might spike.
But on average, almost every single day, Crowder's number one.
And guess what?
We're number two.
Tim Castile.
Hey, I'll take it, man.
I'll take it.
It's an honor to be working with all y 'all.
And to follow Steven Crowder's great show, massive show, and all of his fans for supporting and watching this show.
And a shout-out to Russell Brand.
It is an honor and a privilege, sir.
You are a legend.
To shout you out is an honor.
Not everybody likes everybody.
Everybody in the morning lineup has their audiences, but it's a privilege to get to work with all these guys, and I respect it.
