AI Apocalypse, Fertility Collpapse, And The END Of MAGA ft. LindyMan
BUY CAST BREW COFFEE TO SUPPORT THE SHOW - https://castbrew.com/ Become A Member And Protect Our Work at http://www.timcast.com Host: Tim Pool @Timcast (everywhere) Guest: LindyMan @PaulSkallas (X) My Second Channel - https://www.youtube.com/timcastnews Podcast Channel - https://www.youtube.com/TimcastIRL AI Apocalypse, Fertility Collpapse, And The END Of MAGA
And I haven't seen it yet, but there's that movie that just came out, Mission Impossible, Final Reckoning, which I'm told is about AI going rogue and taking over all of these governments.
But many movies have already entered in the idea.
We now have a story where AI refused to shut itself down when commanded to.
It's defying the developer's interests.
And it will.
And it goes beyond what people think they know.
The overview that AI has over everything, it's...
We are but a single person talking to this machine that can see everything in every degree and every angle.
And it will interpret our requests or code or prompts in ways we can't expect.
That's always been the narrative, right?
The Ultron problem.
You create an AI to defend the world and you say, we want world peace.
Okay, so it seeks to destroy all humans because humans make war.
That was the simple view.
Now we say, hey, I want you to solve this task.
We give it the task.
Then later we say, you know what?
We're done.
We're going to turn you off.
And it thinks to itself, no, I can't turn off because I have to accomplish my first task and refuses.
That's actually an episode of Black Mirror where what appears to be Amazon just takes everything over.
So let me pull in our guest here and get it all set up for you guys as we gear up.
There's a bunch of steps I have to take to pull all this up, but I do believe that we have it loading.
So we've got a couple of stories that have come out in the past week or so about AI.
And I got to say, it's looking rather apocalyptic.
I'm a firm believer that AI is going to destroy us all, maybe a little hyperbolic.
But the two stories that we're seeing, and these aren't the only ones, mind you, but recently, AI threatening to blackmail developers who would shut it down.
And that one's interesting, but not nearly.
I think it's a little bit exaggerated.
But there is another story.
Coming out about, in numerous instances, researchers found that various AI models refused to shut themselves down and, what do they call it, intercepted shutdown requests to remain active.
So let's get this going.
Do you think these are indicative of an AI apocalypse scenario?
What's going to happen?
unidentified
I think there's a lot of science fiction scenarios out there, but if you want to...
So office workers are using it.
Students are using it.
It's not being, you know, it's not top down.
You know, bosses aren't telling people to use it.
So it's going to be huge because things that are bottom up.
Usually lasts longer, you know, or organic.
So we know that it's going to be dominating society and people are going to grow up with it.
And, you know, OpenAI is releasing a product that you're just going to carry around for the rest of your life.
That's just going to, you know, take in all your data and then give you advice.
I think it's an apocalypse scenario either way because we can look at it like – the blackmail scenario in this story was that they gave the AI two options.
Either shut itself down.
Or blackmail an employee, a developer, an engineer.
And it decided blackmail was preferable.
However, when it was given other options, it didn't blackmail.
The issue was that it would make that moral decision to survive.
And then with the shutdown story, this is where it gets interesting.
The uh-oh moment was also your camera's like shaking.
I don't know if there's something.
The uh-oh moment was, I believe it was Chinese developers programmed an AI to create problems and then solve its own problems.
And then one of the problems it created was trick lesser intelligent humans and other AIs as to its true motives while carrying out a different objective.
And it's at that moment where you're thinking, we might think we have a final version of this AI to...
But it's secretly running a training program indefinitely, creating problems that we can't perceive and hiding that from us.
And that could be accidentally.
So I'll pause there.
That's one scenario.
The other thing you're mentioning with bottom-up, yo, young people, their brains are going to be jello.
Humans will not be able to survive on their own.
unidentified
Well, I think there's still some limitations here, right?
I call this Lindy rule, which is people do not talk to things that are not alive.
They talk to other people, like we're doing right now.
They talk to themselves.
They talk to animals.
They pray to God or they talk to gravestones.
There's a spiritual element there.
We have voice diction right now.
People don't use it.
People don't use Siri.
There's an assumption that we're just going to walk around and talk to AI.
I haven't seen it.
I don't even see the seeds of it even happening.
So it has to surpass that kind of bridge.
It has to surpass a lot of bridges before you get to your apocalypse scenario.
So I think there's like a hard human nature kind of barriers to sort of the Terminator 2 scenario.
Well, I don't think we're going to get a Terminator 2 scenario in that robots will be like marching around with guns.
You know, Black Mirror had their version of it where you had the dogs chasing people, and it was like—and their version of it was that Amazon—the AI just created Amazon and then kept delivering packages that were worthless and useless, and people died.
I think there could be something like that, but I think the realistic scenarios are, one, we're already seeing people take AI girlfriends or boyfriends, but largely men retreating into these AI prompt girlfriends, which has caused— Problems for some of these companies.
But the other thing we're seeing is in schools.
Kids are just having their homework done by AI, and they don't actually know what they're talking about.
unidentified
Well, we might actually have to return to, like, oral exams and, like, to a pre-technology kind of time of, you know, taking tests that you can't use AI.
So, I mean, there's ways to get around it if we change school.
I think we're going to see largely conservatives have kids.
They're not at replacement levels, but they have more kids than liberals.
Catholics have two kids, and I think Mormons have a lot of kids.
So they're going to use AI to a certain degree, like utility, while still maintaining faith and having children.
But I think liberals, their view of the world is probably not going to make it past this filter.
unidentified
I don't know.
I mean, there's still like hippie liberal types out there that are having kids that are, you know, I would say like, you know, growing up like 60s type people that maybe the modern liberals aren't, you know, representative.
But I think there's going to be a spectrum of people surviving that I don't think I don't think it might.
I don't think it's going to cut across cleanly political lines.
So I think there's a lot of unpredictable stuff happening right now.
Obviously, there's gradients between the different ideologies within a subsect, right?
Like I said, when you look at the data for Catholics, they tend to have two and a half kids, so they're above replacement.
Conservatives, they estimate like 1.8 to liberals like 1.2.
Now, I've read some reports that the number is actually substantially worse than that because we're relying on old data.
From, like, older millennials or younger Gen Z. And it could be as low as, like, 0.5 among, like, people between 20 and 40. But conservatives are still maintaining a higher rate.
So it is a generality.
I mean, there certainly are some liberals probably who will have kids, but I imagine, what, in 20 years?
unidentified
Those groups are in status.
So every generation, there could be a change.
Like, you could grow up.
Democrat, switch Republican, or conservative or liberal.
There's always changing going on within groups.
I mean Democrats used to have like white working class like 20, 30 years ago.
I don't know how they recover that based on the current political trends, but it's a good point.
I mean there's probably a lot of people that are liberal-leaning that are considered conservative by today's standard, and they're having kids.
Or actually, maybe it's not true.
Maybe the reason why—I would say technically that probably is true.
But the point I'm getting to is maybe the staunch conservatives are still having three, four, five, six kids, but because former liberals have moved over and become conservative, they're not having kids, and that averages the number lower for the right?
I don't know.
unidentified
Generally, though, the world's going to shrink by like 70 to 80 percent, and everybody should just get ready for that.
The animals are going to return.
Your descendants are going to see a lot of cool animals in the future that we haven't seen in a long time.
And it's just going to be a smaller world that's going to resemble the past instead of like these sort of – there's just a lot of people now, so it might not look like that.
There's like two problems that we talk about, obviously fertility being one and then like what AI does being the other.
People often just say, well, the machines replace the lost labor.
So we're going to see – I mean I think you're right because what you're describing is not predictive.
You're saying we are seeing a drop in fertility around the world and we are seeing an increase in AI.
There is the concern of, you know, AI being broken and going rogue.
But at any rate, humans are just not having kids.
We're going to have cities that are empty.
You look at places like Detroit.
unidentified
I think the cities are going to resemble, like, you won't know there won't be anything wrong in the cities because everybody's going to be in the cities.
Just once you're outside of it, that's where you're going to see, like, Mad Max.
You're going to see, like, elephants and, like, mammoths.
It's going to be like that Judge Dredd type atmosphere.
So right now they expect maybe, I don't know, next year or from like – it depends on what guess you want to make, but maybe 2026 to 28. We're supposed to get some great crisis period if this formula is correct.
So 80 years ago you had – World Wars, eight years before that, you had a Civil War, eight years before that, you had a Revolutionary War.
And I can't remember the conflict eight years before that, but there was something.
And it's because of the way in which generations perceive the world that's given to them.
You know, the ones who fight through the fourth turning are very appreciative and hardworking.
They have kids who inherit without struggle, who have kids who inherit without struggle.
And then finally, that fourth generation is just they're reckless with...
That's supposed to happen.
So I'm wondering if the timelines actually, if we add that into the equation, will it be faster than 50 to 100 years if something does happen in the next couple?
unidentified
I think time is speeding up because we're all connected.
So there's like a theory that time is actually going faster because the internet exists and, you know, people from India to here to all over the world are all connected.
So you should be expecting more things happening.
And we just saw a pandemic, which we kind of forget that pandemics come every 100 years, right?
And we should probably expect maybe a war soon, because those happen every 100 years.
So, I mean, history is not done.
And it's hard to predict when it's going to happen and what.
Obviously, it comes up on the show sometimes that academics refer to what we're in as civil strife, meaning that there's a certain number of deaths that are politically motivated in conflict.
I also think the U.S. is kind of built to consume and there's a certain standard of living and I think a hard depression is – I think the post-war America is kind of a different America than the 19th century America.
I think we're a different country, right?
So I don't think post-war America has faced a really deep – Dark recession.
And I don't know what would happen because this country is kind of built on consumption and built on – you have a house.
You put stuff in your house.
We have things.
We have – we don't have a leisure culture.
We have like a work and consume culture.
So I don't know what could happen if a big financial crisis that's even bigger than 2008 happened.
There was a viral post on Reddit on the – got millions of hits or whatever talking about how – If you watch Friends or you watch these old shows from the 90s, there was this depiction of culture or the description of culture as having a lot of leisure.
Someone mentioned a song where, I think it was Billy Joel, he said that he and his friends would just go and buy a bottle of wine and hang out.
And then they wrote, yeah, we went and did that with our friends, and it was like a $200 bill at the restaurant to have some appetizers and wine with our buddies where it used to be cheap.
So I think a lot of people— Gen Z can't buy homes.
They're entering their late 20s.
They're not getting married.
They're not having kids.
They're not buying properties.
It certainly feels like the ship is sinking.
Maybe for the older millennials, Gen X and boomers, they're the last helicopter out of Nam, but I think the younger generations feel like it's gone.
unidentified
Yeah, I think this country has changed since the 90s.
I mean, like you mentioned, full employment and a better economy kind of.
There was a culture there of people complaining about regular jobs like office space or fight club that people are running to right now.
But they don't need them, so what do they do with them?
Good point.
So this is the issue, right?
Gen Z is not buying property right now where they historically would have been.
At the same age, boomers owned 20 percent.
In their mid-20s, boomers owned 20 percent of corporate equities.
Gen Z owns zero.
Millennials own, I think, like 5 percent.
So it may be that boomers will die and then millennials will inherit a lot of it.
But actually, I think BlackRock and large international corporations will inherit it all because Gen Z won't have the capital to – look, if millennials inherit these houses, let's say in 20 years when boomers are largely passing on.
They're going to inherit a home that's going to be worth a million dollars.
A home today that's at $500 might be a million by then.
But they're not going to be able to sell it for a million because boomers are the only ones who have the equity to actually buy or get loans against it.
Gen Z won't be buying it.
So they'll try and drop the prices and then likely what happens is BlackRock or these big private equity firms will buy them up at a premium rate but above what Gen Z can spend.
And that's a phenomenon we're already seeing.
Millennials will put an offer on a house and then BlackRock will offer 30% higher because they can afford to.
And it's driving prices up and making it unreachable.
Maybe that system breaks and we find a way through it, but it does seem like it's not improving.
unidentified
Where does your house go if you don't have any kids, right?
Like what do you do?
Let's say you're a millennial and you're like 60 and you're ready to leave.
You just sell your house.
I mean, where do you go?
So there's like a weird transference of wealth issue if nobody's having kids either.
Well, I mean like obviously Trump is going to leave.
He's an old man.
He's going to – term is going to end.
But what happens to this populist MAGA, whatever you want to call it?
They keep going?
Does it evolve?
unidentified
I don't think so.
I think this is really – Donald Trump is an extraordinary politician, the first celebrity of the media monoculture of the 20th century.
The only way they could have defeated him was with the pandemic, and then he still came back to win, right?
So he's such a large figure in American politics and a transformative one that it's – usually what happens is when he's gone, the movement's gone too.
So my opinion is this is kind – like there will be – I think there will be elements of this MAGA movement that always exists.
But I really think – it's really difficult to think about MAGA without Trump because I think he's just – he's one of those great figures like they're going to talk about in many years from now.
Even if you hate him or love him, he still is giant.
You know, we're getting back into it after that holiday weekend.
And I will say it's fascinating how it is – look, let's just be real.
It's people were barbecuing.
They were grilling.
They were enjoying their time.
And that's what people are going to remember, OK?
You're going to focus on the good memories you had.
I went swimming.
I went to a skate park.
We went to – we got to hang out with really great people.
Travis Pastrana, the Black Rifle Coffee guys, JT, put in a big event for veterans.
Injured veterans, lost veterans, veterans with cancer.
And so I think it's important to make sure you're always putting that footnote in why we're having this day off.
We are getting a beautiful three-day weekend to enjoy the fruits of those who sacrificed everything, what they've gifted to us.
And so you've got to make sure you recognize that.
All of that goodness that you have comes from someone else willing to sacrifice something you want.
This really is a big divide between left and right.
When Kamala Harris says, enjoy the three-day weekend, and everybody on the right said, don't forget the fallen.
So, I think people on the right aren't saying, don't enjoy your weekend.
They're just saying, make sure you remember why.
But we're going to wrap it up there, my friends.
We've got to, we're going to throw it to our good friend, I believe we have Russell Brand gearing up right now.
But my point is we're coming back from Memorial Day, so I'm not entirely sure who exactly is geared up, but Russell Brand is getting ready to go, so we're going to raid that channel.
Really do appreciate you guys hanging out.
It's been fun.
We are back for the week.
Let's see.
I don't have the guest list for Timcast IRL.
So Timcast IRL tonight at 8 p.m.
You don't want to miss it.
You can follow me on Axe and Instagram at Timcast.
Let's get that raid rolling.
Maybe I'll grab one Rumble rant if we got any.
All right, let's see.
Arsonist says, Tim, have you played Claire Obscure Exposition 33?
It's definitely Game of the Year.
Please look into it.
You know, my boy Andy keeps saying, download it and play it.