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May 4, 2023 - The Charlie Kirk Show
36:20
The Most Powerful Person at Fox with Matt Boyle and Mark Mitchell
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Tucker's Contract Troubles 00:11:22
Hey everybody, it's And the Charlie Kirk Show.
Matt Boyle and Mark Mitchell from Rasmussen.
We talk about Speaker McCarthy.
We talk about Tucker.
We talk about recent polling.
It's extremely interesting data that we go through today.
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Here we go.
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With us is Matt Boyle from Breitbart.com.
Matt, how are you doing?
Doing great, Charlie.
How are you, sir?
Glad to be here.
Thank you.
You're the Washington Bureau Chief for the wonderful website, Breitbart.com.
So, Matt, let's talk your top line thoughts, your analysis on the Tucker story.
What do you think we're missing that is the most important part of the story?
Well, look, it appears as though the Murdoch family is trying to silence Tucker Carlson, the Fox News board, which includes Lachlan, James, and Rupert Murdoch, as well as Paul Ryan, the former Speaker of the House, very establishment Republican.
They want to silence Tucker through the 2024 election.
Tucker Carlson is currently under, he's not been fired from Fox News.
Everybody's saying he's fired.
They're just wrong.
His show has been canceled, but he's still under contract.
He is not allowed to go out there and negotiate something new or go to somebody new until such time as the Murdochs and Paul Ryan and the Fox board allow him out of his contract.
His contract runs through December 2024 right now.
So they are trying to silence him.
And what's really going on here is that, you know, we see these weaponized leaks by Fox staff.
Irina Briganti, who is the head of corporate communications for Fox News, has been weaponizing text messages, videos, all sorts of different stuff to different places to try to tarnish Tucker's reputation.
That's backfiring on them.
I think people are turning away from Fox.
They're turning to places like Breitbart and other conservative outlets, places like your show, other conservative media outlets that are seeing a huge spike in attention because people are turning off Fox News, which is an honorable thing.
But ultimately, what's happening here is that the Murdochs are trying to retake control of their network.
And it's not just Tucker that they got rid of.
They also got rid of Dan Bongino, who was their biggest weekend show host.
So they did that in the span of a week.
They got rid of their biggest weeknight show and their biggest weekend show host.
And they're getting rid of all sorts of different other people at lower level, folks that you don't see at home, the folks that help them, the staffers for them are all getting the axe in the boot as well.
So this is a massive purge, and it's an effort by the Murdochs to try to establish control and reorient Fox News back to not rocking the boat.
Milk toast is what to expect from Fox.
That's the word a number of people used with what to expect in terms of their content moving forward.
They're going to take a step away from being edgy, away from pushing the envelope forward, and back towards being boring observers.
But I mean, Matt, so that means the company will be cut in half.
So are they basically saying we want comfort and to be normal and not have boycotts, not have lawsuits instead of being interesting and profitable?
Is that the devil's bargain that the Murdochs are brokering?
They want to just go along to get along with everybody out there.
They didn't like when Tucker was questioning things like the U.S. funding to Ukraine.
They didn't like when he was questioning the orthodoxy regarding the handling of the pandemic.
They didn't like when Tucker was questioning the way the national security apparatus focused on certain things and not on other things.
They didn't like the way that Tucker talked and focused about immigration.
They certainly didn't like that.
And that's a major point of contention here.
And now that after the fact, they're trying to make it look like it was this text or that text or whatever to try to get him out.
It was the reason why they got him out.
But no, that's not the real reason why.
The real reason why here is that the Murdoch family has sought to reestablish control over their empire.
And they want company men.
They want yes men running around.
They want a bunch of people that are not going to actually ask tough questions of the White House or the political class.
They want to go to their garden parties and their country clubs and get along and drink champagne and have a good old time without rocking the boat at all.
Yeah, so that's the question.
Are they going to become RNC TV, right?
And just kind of normal middle of the road.
So do you have any inside information you could share, Matt, about whether or not Tucker is going to be able to get out of this contract?
Well, the negotiations are ongoing right now between his attorney and the network, but all of our sources that we've spoken to last week and since I published that first story that you had up there on the screen, I've had dozens more people from inside Fox News and with other folks with inside information coming forward to me, reaching out to me with more details.
And so we're working on several follow-ups about all of this.
But from everything we're hearing is that the Murdoch family fully intends to try to silence Tucker Carlson through the 2024 election unless the blowback continues and intensifies.
And by the way, they're also, they've ordered Irina Briganti, the corporate leadership at Fox News and at the parent company, Fox Corporation, have ordered this woman, Irina Briganti, to weaponize anything and everything she can.
She has files on every single member of the talent at Fox News.
She has files on Tucker, but she also has files on all sorts of other folks as well.
So she has been empowered to weaponize any information that she can to try to destroy the reputations of anyone that speaks out against them, that challenges their authority, that challenges the Murdoch's authority.
The most interesting thing that I've heard, though, and this we have not reported yet in a story, but I can tell you this for you, that I've got sources that say that Arena Brigante has files as well on the Murdochs, and she's manipulating them as well.
So particularly dangerous what's happening here.
And look, Fox has presented itself as a fair and balanced network for a long time, but ultimately they're not a conservative outlet.
They're not a conservative media outlet.
They're an establishment media outlet of, by, and for the establishment.
The fact that they are colluding with institutions like the New York Times to attack conservatives should end the question as to whether or not Fox is conservative.
It is not.
And the weaponization of leaks against Tucker Carlson to try to destroy his reputation, one of the most important voices we've had in a generation, is disgusting, abhorrent.
But it's part for the course.
They do this all the time to anyone and everyone, though.
The only difference is this time they're actually facing some severe consequences.
We've seen the ratings already significantly dropping and they continue to drop.
Yeah.
So is this standard operating procedure for Fox to basically have a blackmail Tickler file on everybody?
Is that right?
Yes.
Yes.
They have this exact thing going on every single anchor.
If and when the day ever comes that Sean Hannity's gone, they'll do it to him.
If and when the day ever comes that Laura Ingram's gone, they'll do it to her.
If and when the day ever comes with any of the other ones, they will do it to any of them.
And by the way, just in case you think that using some naughty language and text messages is the reason why Tucker is gone and they all of a sudden discovered it.
They all do it.
Every single one of them has used bad words and text messages.
I mean, come on, right?
Like everybody out there across the country, you know, I mean, come on, is there a text message you're not proud of?
I'm sure there is, right?
Like it's, it's just kind of standard part for the course.
And the idea that that's the reason why it's just, it's almost like they're trying to justify after the fact this atrocious action that they took, given the intense blowback that is coming.
And again, that with the latest leak to the New York Times last night of this text about the Antifa incident with the folks beating up on the Antifa guy, whatever.
What you're seeing here is that they're just scrambling to try to give some kind of a justification.
Their story doesn't add up and everybody can see through it.
And because the fact that Tucker is so beloved across the country, they're now facing severe blowback for it.
And their lies aren't going to work.
They're eventually going to have to tell the truth.
But again, the hatchet woman at the center of this whole thing is this woman named Irina Briganti.
She is the one who has been weaponizing the leaks of this information.
She is the one empowered to go to places like the New York Times and others to plant stories to try to craft this narrative that Tucker Carlson is a racist and so on and so forth.
Or Tucker Carlson said nasty words about this one or that one.
I'm telling you right now, there are similar text messages with every single member of Fox News's primetime lineup.
I know that for a fact.
They know that.
They're lying through their teeth when they're saying this stuff to the establishment media.
They know it and they're reeling right now because millions of Americans who used to watch Tucker Carlson tonight are switching to other outlets.
They are coming to Breport.
They're coming to Smacks.
They're coming to our program.
They're coming to your program.
They're going elsewhere.
They are leaving Fox News and they're not going back.
Fox News Exodus 00:04:39
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So, Matt, I want to get to some other stories here that we have.
You have a story here for Breitbart.com.
I want to read the headline: Speaker McCarthy in video special: How the world has changed, a new Republican majority in House.
I'll never give up.
Matt, you've had the opportunity to interview him a couple times.
How would you grade Speaker McCarthy as how he's doing right now as head of the House of Representatives?
I mean, I would say he's pretty much an A plus, right?
Like, I mean, I think that he's doing everything that he said he was going to do over the course of the beginning of the year.
And if anything, that really rambunctious first week as speaker or the week leading up to him being the speaker, the first week of the Republican majority, where they had 15 separate speakership elections.
We talked about this in the interviews.
We did an hour on-camera interview.
We talked about a whole number of different topics: immigration, China, the border, the debt ceiling was a big part of it.
But one of the things we opened with was the new Republican majority is like.
And that was very much focused on what that first week was like.
And he talked about how it was a pretty tough week, 15 rounds like Rocky Balboa, but he made it through it.
And he said that while it was tough going through it and he wouldn't wish that on anyone, it's still, he thinks that that made it, made the House Republicans come a little bit closer together.
And I think you're seeing that happen right now, where they just pulled off the remarkable passage of a debt ceiling deal that has forced President Biden to the table to negotiate.
And now the Senate Republicans are united behind the House Republicans heading into these negotiations next week at the White House.
So there are a lot of things to like about what McCarthy's done as speaker so far.
And I think, you know, one of the things he talked about was promises made, promises kept.
He said that he wanted to follow through on the things that he said he was going to do.
And for generally speaking, he's done that.
So I agree with a lot of that.
The only one where I'm a little bit, you know, let down, and I, and Kevin's a friend and I think he's been great, is the Ukraine thing.
Has he changed his opinion on it?
I want to make sure we get this accurately, right, Matt?
And reasonable people can disagree.
What is McCarthy's view on right?
He's perfect.
Again, I don't know if he's changed his position, so to speak.
One of the, it wasn't one of the topics that, to be to be fair to him, it wasn't one of the topics we got to when I spent an hour with him in the speaker's office.
We had a lot of other stuff we had to talk about.
We talked about him releasing some of the January 6th tapes.
That took up a big part of the interview.
The big changes that he's made as speaker took up a big part of the interview.
Immigration China took up a big part.
So we didn't get to Ukraine.
It was on my list, but you can't get everything you want in an interview.
So you kind of go in there and get what you can.
And then when time is up, you got to move on.
Yeah.
But yeah, his position, I mean, I'm not a fan of it either, but again, nobody's perfect.
So that's interesting.
I haven't seen the full interview.
Where are the January 6th tapes now that Tucker is out at Fox?
Yeah, so Speaker McCarthy told me in the interview that he's planning to release them all publicly.
So they're making redactions to remove security things.
Like, so, you know, there are secret doors in the Capitol that they don't want out there.
There are security procedures and whatever.
They've got to remove all that stuff.
But he said that they're moving in that direction.
He also said later at a press conference at the House GOP retreat about a week or so after we taped this interview.
We published the full thing this weekend, but the interview was taped back in March, right after he had released the tapes, some of the tapes to Tucker.
But he said in mid-March that any news organization that would like to schedule an appointment with the speaker's office to go in and review the tapes in person in camera at the house, I would be willing to make that happen.
So I know that we're working on making that happen.
Capitol Security Redactions 00:03:03
I know other news organizations are as well.
So you think we can expect tens of thousands of hours of footage coming out soon publicly?
I don't know if that will happen.
If they'll like just dump it all on the internet or not, but he because he said at a press conference at the House GOP retreat that any news organization that would like to come in and review it.
So I know you can, I can.
Our team, I know he's working on setting up that.
And I know that other news organizations are as well.
Well, I think it's a great idea.
I'm going to go and see it for sure.
Well, everyone, check out Breitbart.com.
Anything in closing, Matt, you want to plug?
We have 30 seconds remaining.
Yeah, look, just Breitbart.com is where you can find all of our stuff.
And I'm also on True Social, which I think is booming.
I'm at RealMap Oil on True Social.
I don't do Twitter anymore.
I do True Social.
Very good.
Matt, thank you so much.
Talk to you soon.
Yep.
Thanks so much.
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Very important conversation we're about to have here.
Tons of data we're about to pour over.
Mark Mitchell, who's the chief pollster for Rasmussen, joins us now.
Mark, welcome to the program.
Hi, good to be here again.
It is definitely a lot of numbers.
Yeah, that is.
So I have all these charts and graphs in front of me.
And why don't you just start with the most significant and we'll work our way through it?
Trump Polling Momentum 00:16:08
We did this poll and it was a sponsored poll.
So everybody can go to our website and download this stuff and look at for themselves.
There's like 20, 25 questions here, really dense.
But the poll was done for one very specific reason.
Our sponsor for this poll, Larry Ward from Political Media, was really sick of the infighting that he sees on the conservative side.
And he thinks that DeSantis is perceived to be very favorable among Republicans, just as Donald Trump is, and that potentially together, the both of them on the same ticket might be better in whole than in part.
And so that was what we set out to prove.
And I think we proved it pretty resoundingly.
So we started by setting a benchmark of how would Trump do alone in a 2024 rematch against President Joe Biden.
And Donald Trump beats him 48% to 41% in this poll, which is in line with what we saw about a month ago when we ran that same question.
Then the next thing we did was we said if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was Donald Trump's running mate against Joe Biden, would you vote for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris or DeSantis Trump?
And now Trump does better.
So we have Trump and DeSantis beating Biden and Harris 51% to 43%, which is a slightly larger lead, 8% instead of 7%, but it gets the Trump ticket over the 50% hurdle, which is very important.
But we've tried, tested the Trump-Biden matchup quite a few times since 2020, and Trump only got above that 50% hurdle one time.
And it was September of 2021 when Marines were blowing up in Afghanistan and we were leaving billions of dollars of equipment behind in Bagram.
So this is really, I think, big news.
Now, we also put other candidates in there to test.
We tested Kerry Lake on the Trump ticket.
We tested Marjorie Taylor Greene on the Trump ticket.
And DeSantis brought the most to the ticket.
Now, when we had tested DeSantis versus Trump and Biden versus Trump, sorry, DeSantis versus Biden and Trump versus Biden a month ago, and we found that they did almost about equally, but Ron DeSantis does better than Trump in a couple of key demographics that you would probably perceive to be lefter leaning, 18 to 39-year-olds, graduate degrees, upper incomes.
And it turns out he really does bring that support to a Trump ticket a few points here and there, which really amounts to big numbers on the national scale.
So you asked how likely is that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 election?
What did you learn?
That's also a record setter for us.
Again, a perennial favorite.
We've been literally, I think, the only pollster routinely asking questions about election fraud.
And the trend seems to be that as time accrues between us and the 2020 election, and as mainstream corporate news media ignores potential evidence of election fraud, people's concerns have not gone away.
In fact, they've actually increased.
So in this question, now 62% of all likely voters think that it's at least somewhat likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
Wow.
The implication there is that maybe the outcome would have been different if said cheating hadn't happened.
So a very important question.
That 62% number is the highest we've ever seen.
The previous record was 58%.
So the media can duck all of these, they can duck these concerns as long as they want.
People are not going to stop thinking that there's fraud in elections.
And even in the 2022 election, we got a very similar signal recently.
About that same 62% of people think that cheating affected 2022 as well.
And of course, how could they not with some of the things that we saw coming out of Maricopa County and whatnot?
That's extraordinary.
Let's go to another.
No matter how hard they try, they can't stifle all of our thoughts.
Let's go to another one here.
Just DeSantis' general favorability versus Trump's general favorability.
I think you touched on this, but you would think that DeSantis is actually more popular, but that's not necessarily the case.
Walk us through it.
DeSantis and Trump recently, i.e., last six months, the last couple of times we've asked this question, have all been roughly equivalent among Republicans At least somewhat favorable level, which I'm not sure is the most important number.
I think it's the very favorable numbers.
So we're talking like since the 2022 election, Trump has been in the mid to high 70s among Republicans for at least somewhat favorable.
But Republicans were kind of upset after November, and Trump's very favorable numbers were only really in the high 40s.
Really, since then, and DeSantis was doing slightly better among Republicans with a number over 50.
But after we put some distance between November and after we got the speakership battle behind us, and after Trump really picked up his campaigning, he surged among Republicans, coming back up to 80%, which is pretty high, and getting now in the high 50s very favorable among Republicans.
But what you just put on the screen, to me, is the stunner of everywhere in this poll.
I was on War Room, I think about a month ago, talking about a recent set of Trump favorability numbers, and I was astounded that we had Trump at 53%.
Now, keep in mind, that's with Joe Biden in our numbers sitting at about 46% today.
So with a 7% advantage on Trump over Biden, that was huge.
But now, today in this poll, we have Trump at 59% among all likely voters, which is, I mean, just absolutely incredible.
It's almost 13 points more than Biden is doing right now.
And it's across the board in almost every demographic.
Now, DeSantis's numbers are kind of similar.
He does 60% at least somewhat favorable with everybody, but he has a four-point less very favorable number, 33% instead of 37%.
So I think from DeSantis' perspective, he's gotten less negative press, but he's gotten a lot of nationwide positive recognition.
And so he's doing just as well as Trump from a favorability perspective.
That's not necessarily what counts, right?
What counts is GOP primary vote, right?
And in our polling, we have Trump winning very solidly among Republicans.
So I think Republicans like DeSantis.
I think the nation still relatively likes DeSantis, especially compared to Biden, about equivalently to Trump.
But DeSantis doesn't have a million investigations and all the legal problems and all the negative press.
So I think what people are worried about is polling versus electoral outcomes.
Let me ask a first question I had, then I'll get to the second one.
Is this national or is this state by state?
Because really the whole election comes down to three states, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin.
These are national numbers.
It's regionally targeted.
Now, if I were going to do a 2,000, 3,000 person national poll, I would probably target by state.
This was 1,050.
So we target to get a pretty good spread of like Northeast, South, the West, Midwest.
You know, because your Northeast Republican is not necessarily the same as a Southern Republican.
And the way that should be perceived, these are always like these kinds of intercycle polls that aren't doing necessarily like time-sensitive horse races, right?
This is like a temperature check.
And the temperature shows like Trump's doing really great right now.
Now, obviously, we're a long way from an election.
And the onus is on people who disagree with these numbers to run their own poll and prove me wrong.
And what I think they'd find is that they would validate these numbers.
I'm very confident with our national, I'm pretty confident that we're dialed in.
So in the 2022, you know, I was on an election night on your show.
We discussed this.
And I was kind of confused about what the signs pointed to because Republicans did have a massive lead coming into 2022 and it ticked away bit by bit.
And now, why did that happen?
And I think the people that answer likely voter screen polls in the middle of a cycle aren't necessarily the same as the one who will answer polls in September.
I think there's part of that.
I think the issue set shifted quite a bit when the Dobbs decision came down.
But I also think Democrats have a really great machine.
And so part of the balance is I go out there, I ask people questions, I get data, right?
But part of for that data to be accurate, I also have to predict what the election turnout is going to be, which let's just say in a 20 post-2018 world has been incredibly challenging.
And in retrospect, we in Raspboxon actually did a pretty good job.
Our numbers actually came out.
You know, obviously, it depends on how you benchmark these things.
But if you take every generic ballot poll we ran from September to November and average them, it comes out to Republicans plus four.
And the Cook report, you know, final results, National House popular vote was Republicans 2.8.
So at a national level, we were off 1.2%.
Now, obviously, that equates to hundreds of thousands of votes.
But I think that's pretty dialed in.
And since then, we've added a point to Democrats to compensate for that fact.
But the challenge is always the turnout.
And people say, wow, man, the Republicans should have done better or what a loss.
If you look at the returnout numbers, the real story is the Democrats had a massive underperformance.
So Democrats have traditionally turned out in the mid-30s in midterm elections.
And then in 2018, out of nowhere, before COVID, before all of this massive mail-in ballots, they turned out over 60 million people out of nowhere.
And of course, some of that was the Trump is a Russian agent vote, but not all of it.
And it was everywhere across the country.
And of course, everybody was dumbfounded.
Now, after 2020, 2018 didn't get a lot of attention.
But in many ways, the huge, massive Democrat outperformance in 2020 was dwarfed from a percentage basis of what the Democrats did in 2018.
So with Democrats turning out 61 or 62, something like that in 2018, they only turned out high 40s.
I think it was 49 million.
They only turned out, so they turned out over 10 million less than they did in 2018 in this election.
And the Republicans kind of did what Republicans do, which is chip along, adding a million here, 2 million there every cycle, and increased.
And I think in retrospect, it's probably pretty fascinating that the Republicans came out on top and didn't do worse than they potentially could have otherwise.
So I think a lot of it, there's this massive sort of chess versus checkers game going on.
And that's absolutely far enough.
I want to make sure I'm understanding those numbers.
We're about to a break.
We'll keep you for another segment.
From what I understand is that the midterms were disappointing for us while the Democrats had an 11 million less for the 2022 midterms than did an 18.
Basically, what I'm hearing is that the Democrats have tens of millions of potential voters they can get out in 2024 that Republicans do not have.
I want to make sure I'm understanding that correctly.
So Mark, explain to us, was I understanding that correctly, the Democrats have a greater potential for a turnout machine.
Is that right?
I think since 2018, I think, I mean, it was probably like a three Sigma turnout in 2018, if you go back and look at their past midterm performance.
And I'm still learning as I do this.
Every day I learn.
I try and learn from the numbers and figure out what I'm seeing and judge the signal I'm getting and be a better pollster.
And I was just really surprised that the things that I was seeing that I think others would agree with is just the sheer latent opportunity that Republicans had to convert the issue set and the momentum in the polling into an increase in turnout that really was ultimately at the end of the day not too impressive.
And there's probably a ton of reasons.
You probably know some of these reasons better than I do, but that's just the fact of the matter.
Yeah.
And so that's an interesting calculation as we enter into 2022.
So 2024.
So let me ask you, what do you think are the biggest changes you've seen in your polling, not just this poll, but broadly?
A notable change that conservatives should take and internalize.
Like, wow, something is profoundly changing the trajectory, an opinion.
What are you seeing in polling that you think is moving in a new direction?
I'll try not to be a pessimist here.
I think they should download this poll here and look at it.
And I think on the positive side of the coin, I would say that MAGA issues are very popular still, that the Democrat Party is more conservative than the current Democrat administration, that Trump's favorability numbers are doing really great right now.
And Biden's approval, although people become used to him, people think he's less threatening after he lost that Congress.
His numbers are still pretty low.
And I think that's all still great news.
I think that there's, you know, Trump turned out more Republicans than any presidential Republican candidate in history.
I think that he has to have picked up more support since then.
And I don't see anything in the polling to, you know, really counter that.
Now, on the negative side of the coin, I will say that the left is very, very effective and manipulating public opinion.
And as I go through all the historical polling, I find all this evidence.
We've been in business for almost 20 years and we've polled on not just election horse races, but on really important social issues.
And the left is getting lefter in a very, very rapid way.
On some things, you can look at the results and say, all right, that's not as concerning as I would have thought.
For instance, there are low double-digit peoples in the United States, likely voters, who actually agree that babies should be aborted after six months into the term.
It's a much lower number than you would think based on how popular the concept of pro-choice is.
But on other things, it is moving very rapidly.
For instance, the idea of reparations in America has really shifted a lot in the last five or six years.
And are they out there every night in the press hammering home how important reparations are?
No, it's almost this way in which it's just internalized into all of the Democrat platforms.
And sure enough, the Democrats lead everyone else in the country left.
It's a pretty solid majority of Democrats now that want reparations.
And if you go five, six years back, it was, I think it was like less than a third of them wanted it.
So there's just a ton of examples like that that show that the current paradigm of conservatism reaching public opinion, manipulating, changing, directing public opinion, it's like, again, checkers versus chess.
Trusted Conservative Podcasts 00:01:06
Mark, we'll have to have you on soon.
Thanks so much.
We're out of time.
Russ Musin, polling reports.
Check it out.
Thanks so much.
Thanks for having me on.
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