60-Day Midterm Alert: Where Every Race Stands with Trafalgar Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly
In an extremely important conversation on The Charlie Kirk Show during one of the most consequential elections in our nation's history, Charlie spends the full hour giving listeners everything they need to know to support the Red Wave in November. Charlie delivers crucial information on each candidate as conservatives gear up for midterms that could change the Republican Party forever— and for the better. Robert Cahaly, Chief Pollster at the Trafalgar Group, joins the show to tell Charlie and listeners what results he’s seeing from early polling, and where the potential weak spots for Conservatives could be. For more information on each candidate, head to https://charliekirk.com/news/these-america-first-candidates-need-your-support-heres-how-to-help/.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Fixing Elections in 50 Days00:02:53
Hey everybody, it's Anthony Charlie Kirk Show.
63 days in the midterms.
We go around the horn.
What races are we looking at?
What things are we focusing on?
Well, you guys are going to enjoy this episode.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
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We are 63 days away, 63 days away from a midterm election.
It's snuck up on us.
In fact, we are about, let me do the math, 45 to 50 days away in certain states from ballots going out, 45 to 50 days out.
We are being outspent significantly in the key states.
We have some candidates that are fighting like heck, but the Democrats are coming in with kleptocratic Silicon Valley money that is just blowing expectations out of the water.
So what we're going to do right out of the gate here as we're back from Labor Day, we're going to go around the horn.
What states and races should we be focused on?
So first, of course, let's frame this.
The House of Representatives, totally up for grabs.
Every single person has to rerun for election in the House of Representatives every two years.
All we have to do is win the House of Representatives by one vote.
Now, I know some of you say, Charlie, we haven't done enough to fix our elections.
We haven't done it.
I agree with all that.
That's not what this conversation is going to be about, though.
This conversation is going to be about what candidates, what races are we looking at so we can overwhelm the system because we talk about election integrity a lot on this program.
We talk about mules.
We talk about ballot practices.
This conversation is going to be focused on what are we going to do the next 63 days.
That's the most operative question.
There was a lot of opportunities previously to fix our elections.
We did some of it.
Now we're going to have to overwhelm the system again to permanently fix our elections in Arizona or in Georgia or in other states.
Georgia Senate Flip Scenarios00:06:59
The Senate is 50-50.
Now, if we tie, if we end up tying the U.S. Senate, we lose because Kamala Harris ends up being the tiebreaking vote.
So there are some incumbents that we have to hold on to if we want to keep the U.S. Senate.
And then there are some ones that we can flip.
Let's start with the Senate race in North Carolina.
Ted Budd is running in North Carolina, and Ted Budd very well might be and should be the next senator from North Carolina.
Now, this is not a flip opportunity.
This is a hold opportunity.
In North Carolina, Ted Budd looks to be up a point or two.
The latest poll shows him down to this snake by the name of Beasley, a former Chief Justice of North Carolina's Supreme Court's Senate seat, North Carolina Supreme Court, will face off against GOP Representative Ted Budd, who represents North Carolina's 13th district.
Beasley is running as a moderate.
Ted Budd is going to win this race absent any major failings or fumbles, but we got to support Ted Budd.
So first of all, North Carolina.
Number two, Georgia, very important Georgia Senate race.
This is a flip opportunity.
This is a huge flip opportunity.
Many of you probably watched what looked to be a high school football game versus a college game of Oregon versus Georgia.
Don't rub salt in the wound.
Big Ducks fan over here.
Boy, was that hard to watch.
Geez, it wasn't even a football game.
Herschel Walker was at the game.
Herschel Walker, of course, Heisman Trophy winner, one of the best college running backs of all time.
Herschel Walker is running up against the charlatan Raphael Warnock to actually flip the U.S. Senate race.
Raphael Warnock should not be the U.S. Senator from Georgia.
Never should have happened.
And Trafalgar and Emerson both have Raphael Warnock up.
He is trending beautifully in the state of Georgia.
Now, I'm not going to dive too deep into this, but I'm telling you, as football season starts to come front and center in Georgia, Herschel Walker is going to surge.
You can make fun of that all you want, media matters.
You have never spent time in rural Georgia if you think that's a joke.
The better Georgia football does, the better Herschel Walker looks.
That's not going to be the only reason why people vote for it, but it does not hurt in a year where Georgia is the defending national champion to have the Heisman Trophy winning darling of the University of Georgia Bulldogs running for the United States Senate.
Just look at Tommy Tuberville.
Tommy Tubberville in Auburn was able to beat Doug Jones.
Thank you.
Doug Jones in Alabama.
So Georgia is very important with Herschel Walker.
Next, we have Arizona, of course, two incredibly important races.
Of course, also the Secretary of State's race with Mark Fincham, but we have Blake Masters and Kerry Lake.
Now, Carrie Lake is up against Katie Hobbs.
Katie Hobbs is spending money like crazy, but nothing even close to Mark Kelly.
The latest polls show Kerry Lake up about 0.7 points on Katie Hobbs.
Blake Masters, it shows, is down three points in Arizona.
This is another flip opportunity.
So let's just pretend we flip the Georgia Senate race and Herschel Walker flips that.
That would make the U.S. Senate balance 51.49.
Now, if we lose Arizona, that actually still means that we would have the Senate 5149.
But if we're able to flip Arizona, which would be massive, and it is doable.
It is achievable.
Blake Masters, a young, energetic, charismatic candidate, trying to get all the money he possibly can for his needed air war.
If we're able to win in Arizona, Senate would go 52.48.
Keep your eyes on Arizona.
Very, very important.
Next, go to Pennsylvania.
First, the governor's race.
One of our favorite candidates in the country, Doug Mastriano.
Mastriano is doing, he's running a great race.
He's up against Shapiro, who is awful.
Doug Mastriano is starting to see momentum on the ground and is doing much better.
And then in the Senate race, I know a lot of people here are not fans of Dr. Oz.
We're actually going to have Dr. Oz on the program.
We're going to ask him very pointed questions.
I disagree with Dr. Oz on certain things, but I'll tell you this.
Dr. Oz looks better and better every single day the more I see the guy that is, I don't know, sweatshirt Shrek walking around Pennsylvania.
This guy, John Fetterman, is one of the most dangerous candidates in the entire country.
He's dangerous because he camouflages himself.
He pretends like he's some sort of working man moderate, wears gym shorts and a sweatshirt.
Now, I'm not here to trivialize somebody's health, but John Fetterman is not currently in a state of being to serve in the United States Senate, period.
John Fetterman makes Joe Biden look sentient.
That really tells you.
That says something.
And Dr. Oz needs to hammer him on that.
For those of you that live in Pennsylvania, you might say, Charlie, I don't like Oz.
I don't want to vote for him.
Well, then vote against Fetterman.
That's a referendum on Fetterman because that guy, if he gets in the U.S. Senate, he will be a younger, taller, more radical Bernie Sanders.
As someone put it, it's Bernie Sanders on stilts.
So, Pennsylvania, Dr. Raza Mastriano.
Now, this is a hold seat.
Pennsylvania is a hold seat, largely because of Pat Toomey.
If we hold on to Pennsylvania, it's largely because Donald Trump brought Pat Toomey across the finish line.
You might remember in 2016 when he won that surprise Senate race.
Ohio is a hold.
We have to hold in Ohio.
The race is looking better and better for JD Vance.
JD's running a great campaign.
As you know, we're behind JD on this program.
JD looks like he's going to be the next senator from Ohio, but he needs your support.
He needs your backing.
He's up against a very slippery, duplicitous candidate in Tim Ryan.
JD is going to get some separation speed.
My prediction is that J.D. wins by five or six points.
That's the latest Trafalgar poll that shows J.D. up a couple points.
Onward to Wisconsin.
Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who is running a great race.
If there is an incumbent to support that needs your help, it is Ron Johnson.
Ron Johnson, I can say this more so than any other Republican, more than Ted Budd and anybody else.
Ron Johnson will forever be in the pantheon of heroes, in my estimation, for his courage of taking on the vaccine issue.
And the current poll shows Ron Johnson down slightly in the Wisconsin Senate race.
Polls are not good in Wisconsin.
Now, anyone who's spent time in Wisconsin politics knows the following: Wisconsin is probably the most difficult state to poll outside of Alaska.
Very rural.
People are very closed-lipped.
They don't like talking to outsiders.
You get north of the Milwaukee corridor, no one wants to talk to you.
Ron Johnson beat Russ Feingold in the 2010 Senate race, if I'm not mistaken.
Wisconsin Polling Challenges Explained00:02:04
Is my math correct?
Russ Feingold, and he was down in every single poll.
We could find some of those.
Ron Johnson is incredible, is an incredible candidate.
He needs our support.
So, what are we doing here?
We are going around the horn of the top races and candidates that need your support and that need our focus.
We are 63 days out from a reckoning, everybody.
Look, we talk about current events a lot on this show, but there's other things that are in life that are bigger than current events, bigger things.
We try to do some shows every so often on these things.
But look, what am I talking about when I say that?
How about good and evil?
Right and wrong, prayer and the Bible, or heaven and hell.
So, look, the great C.S. Lewis, who's one of the most amazing minds ever to exist, was a master at addressing these questions.
And that is why Hillsdale College, the great college, the only college, in my opinion, wants you to learn more about him and his writings in their newest free online course, C.S. Lewis on Christianity.
And it all starts with taking a short quiz to find out how much you already know about Lewis.
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Look, Hillsdale College is amazing.
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So just write this down.
This should be your go-to resource.
Remember, I have taken 16 of their online courses, and I have promised Dr. Arne I'm eventually going to finish them all.
Go to charlie4hillsdale.com to take this fun, interactive quiz, and then sign up for this free course.
The answers may even surprise you, even if you think you know everything about C.S. Lewis.
They surprised me, my goodness.
The quiz, the course, and everything you learn at Hillsdale College are yours for free, as always.
So take the C.S. Lewis quiz, charlie4hillsdale.com.
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Take as many online courses as you can.
The Constitution course is amazing, but their C.S. Lewis course is extraordinary.
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Charlie4, Hillsdale.com.
Just a little bit more on Wisconsin.
Wisconsin's a beautiful state.
Free C.S. Lewis Quiz Offer00:02:14
I love the state of Wisconsin.
Phenomenal people.
Very difficult to poll.
Now, when I mention these polls, we're very selective about what polls we share on this program.
We share Trafalgar.
We share maybe we'll share some other ones, maybe Richard Barris, big data poll, because we believe that there are suppression polls out there.
Remember the polls that show Donald Trump's going to lose Florida by four points?
He ends up winning historically.
Donald Trump's going to win Ohio.
This is back in 2020.
So we're very careful what polls we show.
So when we say a poll on this program, it's from a pollster that we trust, with a methodology that's been proven, with a track record that has been indicative previously of an outcome that can be accurate.
We don't do this.
What is that one that they love?
Susquehanna, Susquehanna.
There are a bunch of frauds over there.
They should be shut down by the FTC for deliberate lying.
So Ron Johnson is in a tough race in Wisconsin.
The latest Trafalgar poll has him down a point and a half.
But again, Wisconsin is so hard to poll.
It is an impossible state to poll.
It would be a tragedy, though, if we take back the House.
It would be awful if we win all these other Senate races and we lose Ron Johnson.
Ron Johnson went out on a limb.
He hosted Dr. Malone.
He hosted Dr. Peter McCullough and talked about the vaccine and the adverse events.
Ron Johnson needs our help, everybody.
He's a patriot.
He's a fighter.
He's a business guy.
He's a profile in courage.
And they are pouring money into Wisconsin against him.
So if you live in Wisconsin, become a precinct committee man, knock on some doors for him.
I do believe Ron Johnson will be successful.
If you go read the 2010 profile on Ron Johnson, it says Johnson mounted a late comeback in the fall after months of, this is back in 2010, 12 years ago, insisting the race was closer than it appeared.
He led a public poll for the first time in October.
Feingold was down one point in the final Marquette law school poll.
So consider the gold standard of polling in the state, which is true.
The Marquette Law School poll right before the election is usually predictive.
But Ron Johnson seemed like he was going to lose the entire time in surge to victory.
Same thing happened in 2016.
In 2016, he was down nine points in the Marquette Law School poll.
So the law school poll was right in 2020.
Nevada Gubernatorial Candidate Spotlight00:10:10
It was off by nine points.
And then Johnson won and beat Feingold by third, three points.
Point is this, that the polls in Wisconsin are all over the place, regardless of the polls.
Put them aside.
Ron Johnson needs your help.
Ron Johnson is right near the top of my list of people that I want to help.
Blake Masters, JD Vance, Ron Johnson.
What he did to expose Fauci and the medical industrial complex is just heroic.
Okay.
Nevada, Adam Laxalt.
Adam Laxalt is running a great race.
Trafalgar shows Adam Laxalt up on Cortez Masto.
This is a flip opportunity.
It's a flip opportunity where Adam Laxalt can beat and defeat Cortez Masto.
That's a surprise.
That's a sleeper race.
I'm telling you right now.
Nevada, keep your eye on Nevada.
Nevada has been punished by Sisilac.
Lockdowns, the gaming industry has been decimated by Democrats.
Adam Laxalt has won statewide before.
We endorse Adam Laxalt here on this program.
Adam Laxalt is running a great race.
The rules are going to show up for him.
It all comes down to Clark County.
He's going to run up the score in Henderson, which is a heavy LDS population.
If he can just splice, if he can lose less in Clark County, in some of the precincts around kind of the Summerlin area, which has turned to be a little liberal, but really deep down, should be conservative Republican, Adam Laxalt could be the next senator from Nevada.
Now, I will say this carefully because we're on YouTube.
If you want to talk about a state that has shenanigans, ballot harvesting, culinary union corruption, just look at the state that Harry Reid built.
Now, I was flying out of Vegas recently, and I think they renamed the entire airport the Harry Reed Airport.
And I just, I had to go get a tums.
That's why I travel with Pepto-Bismal.
It used to be McCarran International.
Now it's the Harry Reed Airport.
What an insult to ethics and integrity and to the North Star compass that we all have somewhere in our soul.
I know it's almost like flying into the John McCain terminal in Phoenix.
It's just, how many corrupt senators do we have to name stuff?
It's almost like flying into Little Rock, Arkansas, when you have the Bill and Hillary Clinton airport.
You rob the country blind, you destroy Western civilization, or you do your best at it, you get an airport named after you.
I know, exactly.
Andrew's exactly right.
I like John Wayne, Bob Hope, and Ronald Reagan International.
I totally agree.
This Bill and Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Harry Reid stuff is nonsense.
We have a lot more races I want to cover here, and this is actually fun.
I know we're getting a lot of emails here at freedom at charliekirk.com.
Keep your eye on Adam Laxalt, though.
He's a sleeper out west.
I'm telling you.
If he beats Cortez Mastro, that is a flip.
So if we even have one or two of these flips, just one or two of these flips, Laxalt, Masters, Herschel, and then we hold Ohio and we hold Wisconsin, the Senate can be ours.
I don't care what McConnell says.
Remember, Connell, we're not going to run the Senate.
Yeah, okay, pal.
The grassroots is going to do this.
Get out of the way.
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Raymond emailed us.
I love your thoughts, by the way, everybody.
Freedom at charliekirk.com.
Charlie, please make the point if we flip the Senate.
Not only do we win the Senate votes, but we get the Senate committee chairmanships.
That's exactly right.
I would love to see JD Vance.
I would love to see Ron Johnson again.
I'd love to see Josh Hawley on committees with subpoena power for the IRS, Anthony Fauci.
Now we could have an FBI committee, oversight committee, and the Church and Pike equivalent in both the Senate and the House.
So you might not like Dr. Oz.
I'm not here to tell you he's the greatest person ever.
I'm telling you, John Fetterman wins in Pennsylvania, then you're going to have some guy wearing a sweatshirt mumbling to himself about why we need to let everyone out of prison.
That's not prudent, okay?
The time to go merciless against Republicans is in primaries.
I'm all for that.
You guys know that.
So we're going to talk a little bit.
There's a good question out there because you guys know we are no fan of the Republican establishment here.
We're going to talk about some races that, quite honestly, I don't love where these candidates stand on certain issues.
But I actually might be pulling for them to win.
We're going to talk about that in just a second.
So we got Nevada.
We got Adam Laxalt.
There is a sleeper race that has emerged here.
There's two of them: there is one in Washington and there's one in Colorado.
The American West, I think, is going to have a hard right turn.
I think the American West is going to surprise some people.
Let's start in Washington.
Tiffany Smiley is running up against Patty Murray.
Now, if you were to have Tiffany Smiley on this program and she wasn't running for a U.S. Senate race, I would say that she would be a moderate.
She's probably in the Susan Collins mold of Republicans.
But you know what?
She's very honest about it.
And I've said for a while: the type of Republican that bothers me the most is one that runs as a conservative and then votes or legislates or governs as a moderate.
Tiffany Smiley is running as a moderate.
Washington is hardly a red state.
It is a reliably blue state.
A Republican has not won statewide in Washington in quite some time.
So Tiffany Smiley is now within striking distance against Patty Murray, and we are cheering for her.
Why?
Because Tiffany Smiley is going to give us one vote.
She will give us one vote that we care about.
You know what that one vote is?
She'll vote for a Republican majority.
That's prudent.
Now, I'm no fan of the Republican establishment, but do I want our studs?
Do I want people like Masters and Vance?
Do I want someone like Hawley or Mike Lee in the minority?
Or do I want them in the majority?
Of course you want them in the majority.
How about Rand Paul, who's in a great, he'll win in Kentucky big time.
He's going to win.
We love Rand.
Would you like to see Rand Paul with an opportunity to cross-examine Fauci where he only has five minutes at a time when Maisie Hirono has to interrupt him or when he gets longer periods of time because he's in the majority?
These are very important questions.
Another race where, again, I'm not a fan of this guy's position on abortion at all.
In fact, I think he's leading with it.
It's kind of almost nauseating, to be honest.
But he could win.
And it's Joe O'Day in Colorado.
He's the nominee.
Again, his position on social issues is not even close to being mine, but he's within one point of defeating Michael Bennett.
Joe O'Day is, he calls himself a pro-choice Republican, of which I find to be a laughable proposition, but he could win.
He's within one point of Michael Bennett.
Now, you might say, oh, Charlie, why do we need someone like him?
It will just be another Mitt Romney.
I understand that.
I get it.
But if you're emailing me that from Alabama, that's actually not your question for you.
You got Tommy Tubberville.
You got all sorts of other questions you can worry about.
You got Katie Britt, who's going to be the next senator from Alabama.
But if you're in Colorado, you need to ask yourself, do I want Joe O'Day, who I disagree with on abortion vehemently, but will be with us on inflation, the IRS, border and crime, or I don't want, or do I want Michael Bennett?
Here's the one thing that frustrates me about politics, but it's a lot like life.
You don't always get the choice that you want.
That's something that I learned a long time ago.
Primaries are where you can get the choice you want.
You want to have a better candidate?
Hey, we did it here in Arizona.
We have a phenomenal gubernatorial candidate.
We have a fabulous senatorial candidate.
So there's going to be no one that's going to have to hold their nose.
Keep your eyes open.
O'Day could win in Colorado.
By the way, we're going to post this entire list at charliekirk.com.
I want to get to this question of the special master.
And by the way, you can email us your thoughts on racistfreedom at charliekirk.com.
I want your thoughts.
If you live in a blue state, are you as a grassroots conservative willing to vote for someone that you know you disagree with, that campaigns on disagreements, but might actually have some, let's say, meaningful contribution if they go to Washington, D.C. Smiley and O'Day is that question in Washington and in Colorado.
And joining us now is Robert Kahale from Trafalgar Group, the most accurate polling company in the country.
They have hit it right on the mark, and I'm going to ask them a lot of questions about kind of races that are happening here.
Robert, welcome to the Charlie Kirk Show.
Hey, it's great to be here, Charlie.
Thank you.
So let me ask you just a couple top line stuff.
What are you seeing on the generic for the Republican, Democrat, for the House of Representatives?
As you see it today, how do you believe the House of Representatives will kind of play out 63 days out from the midterms?
Yeah, we see the Republicans up in the generic, but we also don't think the generic is necessarily of this crystal ball because these comes down to particular races.
Republicans tend to do better state by state and district by district than they do on a national analysis, considering there are so many districts that are just one-sided Democrat and so many more competitive that lean Republicans.
Conservative Movement Reaction Speed00:12:22
So we see a big pickup.
But even in the generic, we show a consistent four or five point lead for the Republicans.
So what do you think that manifests as far as seat majorities potentially?
And do you think that's going to expand as we get closer to election day?
I don't know that the generic ballot is going to change.
And one of the main reasons is, I'm sure you've noticed this, the left and left-leaning polling organizations, whether they're from universities or whether they are part of the mainstream media, are going to continue to skew these polling averages with nonsense numbers.
So it really doesn't matter if there's only two or three of us telling the truth out there, that generic ballot is going to continue to tick toward the left.
But as far as what's actually going to happen in the elections, no, I think the Republicans are going to pick up.
What we've seen in the last week or so, after the announcement of the student loan forgiveness, we've just seen a visceral.
I mean, this is the biggest thing we've seen so far to motivate conservative voters.
It's made them extremely angry.
And ironically, it hasn't actually been a panacea for those receiving student loans.
The feedback we get is, I owe $90,000 and I owe 80.
Gee, thanks, Joe.
They don't even think it made a huge difference to them.
A couple of college kids responded or former students responded that $10,000 covers the semester and it's dropping the bucket.
So he's made no one happy.
And we're seeing it move some of these races that we thought were on the bubble back toward the right side.
So I'm very pro-life.
I speak at pro-life dinners all the time and we talk about the need to end abortion in our country.
However, I've said for quite some time, I do not think the conservative base is nearly as pro-life as I am or as pro-life as I would like it to be.
In private conversations, people whisper to me and they tell me, Charlie, you got to cool it on the abortion issue.
Charlie, I understand you want to get rid of abortion, but I don't.
And I see it reflected in our emails, freedom at charliekirk.com.
I'd say 50% of emails we receive are people that say, Charlie, I'm somewhat pro-life, but I think that it should be okay up to 10 weeks and 15 weeks.
Now, I totally disagree at that position, but I'm looking at this purely politically because I also don't want to have a delusion of my own opinion where I act as if everyone is as pro-life as I am, which I don't think is true.
You have some polling about this.
What does your polling show?
Again, Trafalgar Group, most accurate polling firm.
What does your polling tell us?
What it says is there's a coalition of pro-life.
And if you include in that coalition those who believe in life of the mother and only, the exceptions of rape and incest, and then you add those who want to see a heartbeat style few-week ban, we're at 55% of the public or more in most of these states believe in this.
Now, South Carolina, for example, one of the ones you, I think, put up that number was 61.
But we've seen over the course, state by state, it's about a 55% average of a working coalition to eliminate abortion, abortion beyond those first few weeks, you know, kind of at that threshold of heartbeat.
And so to me, when the Republicans are talking about what exceptions, how many weeks they're losing, and when the Democrats are talking about defending abortion on demand, all three TriMasters and partial birth, they're winning.
Are you saying that there is a majority coalition on banning late-term abortion?
Is that correct?
Yes, there is a majority coalition banning on anything beyond heartbeat.
I mean, we're at a 55% national coalition beyond that.
And some people would say after heartbeat isn't necessarily late term.
So this argument is being won, but when we push a little too hard, we're starting, you know, your analysis is exactly right on.
Not everybody in the coalition is as pro-life as maybe you or I are.
And right now, it is about we got here because we won elections and we got to continue winning elections.
And we don't want to lose an election because we try to grab too much at one time.
Because who does that sound like?
No, yeah.
And I just, again, I just want to be realistic.
And I'm not saying that we should compromise on our abortion issues, on the abortion issue or how we talk about it.
But I also, I see what's happening in front of me where people tell me all the time, cut it out.
I don't agree with you.
And they say, otherwise I vote for Republican.
And it's just the country is not there.
The movement is not there.
And if you think abortion is a, if everyone in the conservative movement agrees on it, it's not totally true.
Do I think that the conservative movement finds late-term abortion reprehensible?
Of course.
Do I agree with you on the heartbeat thing?
Most people do yes.
But when I start to talk about abortion bans, I would say I lose half the room.
People get very skittish on that sort of stuff.
Okay.
So let me ask you about some of the races here.
Actually, let me just ask you one more question on that.
Do you think that the Dobsdiff's decision and the abortion issue, is that energizing Democrats and helping their fundraising?
It's interesting.
I don't think the decision is.
I think the overreaction by some on our side, pushing too hard too fast after decision, was a bigger impact.
We didn't see the polling numbers really kind of move much in the Democrats direction right after the decision.
But after four or five states started trying to completely eliminate going beyond heartbeat, then we saw that reaction that started to hurt.
So I think it's much more the conservative movement reacting a little too fast and a little too much.
This is a goal that you have to get to over time and doing it smartly.
And that kind of smart movement is literally how that this can change.
And so that's why I agree with what you're saying.
But no, I think the opposition standalone, no.
The reaction to it, which has already happened, yes.
And I think the greatest thing to turn and motivate our side as much as that motivated their side was the school tuition.
In Arizona, there is a huge coalition of people.
All they talk about is how Blake Masters wants to get rid of all abortion.
And it's become the number one issue in Scottsdale, right, Connor?
In Scottsdale, in Paradise Valley.
It's the only thing that they, I'm going to say, guys, there's other issues that are happening here.
And again, if you do not have political power, it doesn't matter what your issues are.
You just become an op-ed columnist, right?
We want senators, we want people with power to actually make meaningful changes in that direction.
Okay.
I see zero consensus on the abortion issue all across the line.
And people are saying, Charlie, abortion is fine.
Charlie, 10 weeks.
Charlie, 15 weeks.
Charlie, heartbeat.
Charlie, abortion ban.
This one right here.
Charlie, I don't agree with abortion ban.
I do agree no abortion after first term.
That just confirms that the more the Democrats focus on this issue, it creates confusion.
It creates lack of unity and uniformity.
And I say this as a 100% pro-life advocate and activist, actually.
A lot of work left to do.
Robert, let me ask you about some races here.
What do you think about the Arizona Senate race with Blake Masters and with Mark Kelly?
What is Blake Masters' path to victory?
First path to victory is he needs to say when it comes to abortion, the Dobbs decision is all about letting the states decide.
And I'm running for U.S. Senate.
And I'm not about any federal legislation that has to do with abortion.
Second, he needs to talk about Arizona issues.
He needs to talk about the border.
And he needs to remind people about this Biden economy.
And talk about the fact that this, you know, that we've got a guy in Mark Kelly who has voted solidly with Joe Biden.
Joe Biden is the anvil.
When you connect yourself to Joe Biden, you are losing.
I've said before, Joe Biden is like having, running with him, like running with a house full of termites.
It's not obvious.
People don't talk about it at first, but before it's over, it's the only thing that matters.
And so I think that Blake needs to do that.
And, you know, what's right now, we've got that thing at just about three points back.
I think Blake can easily win this race.
I'd love to see some of the national money be redirected back.
I think this is one of the seats that's on the bubble.
And, you know, I'd love to see a Senate Conservative Fund back in there.
Don't know why they left.
I'd love to see the Senate Majority Fund in there.
I think these guys and some other groups, this one is very, very competitive.
And if the resources would just get back behind Blake, I think this one's going to be a win.
So let me ask you, what are the sleeper races you have an eye on?
Races that all of a sudden are popping up.
Do you think Colorado has some life in there?
Washington?
What are some races you're looking at that could be, you know, every election cycle where you see kind of a wave, you always have a shock or two?
What are you thinking?
Absolutely.
Well, first of all, I've divided things up into before polling that we did before and after the student loan forgiveness.
And with it, after the student loan forgiveness, we were in Washington state and we've got Patty Murray just barely up.
Now, I think this is an anti-incumbent year as much as anything.
And as it just so happens, Republicans are defending a lot of seats, but we have a lot of retirees, so we're not defending a lot of incumbents.
I think Patty Murray is in real trouble there.
Smiley is a very good candidate and with the right resources.
Joe Biden is very underwater, even in Washington state.
I think this is a real chance for an incumbent that's been there a long time to be knocked off.
Colorado was competitive.
We have been it up just about five.
And again, I think that's one that is quite possible.
We're going to have some new numbers on Vermont.
We may find something there.
You know, they do have a Republican governor.
They've made it clear that they are not as one-party state as you might think.
And this, of course, is Leahy's seat.
I've been there forever.
So I think those are some sleepers that people ought to keep their eyes on.
And then there's some ones that maybe wouldn't expect early, but I feel like Nevada is probably going to be a win at this point.
So you think Laxalt against Cortez Masto?
Do you think Laxalt's going to win?
I think we have Laxa up already in that race.
Wow.
And so, and then on our side, I mean, again, I believe this is an anti-incumbent year as much as in anything.
And so we need to be very concerned about Ron Johnson.
The guy running against Ron Johnson is very smooth.
He's funny.
He's articulate.
He doesn't have a whole bunch of stuff to be used against him.
He hasn't been in Congress.
And so he's been a state politician.
And that makes a pretty dangerous race.
And, you know, Ron Johnson does not have the money he needs to have.
I mean, for an incumbent senator, he has a very low amount of money.
And that's of great concern.
So it's this guy, Mandela Barnes.
Is that right?
Mandela Barnes?
Yeah, he's he seems smooth.
He's got kind of like the Iran quality to him almost.
Absolutely.
Yeah.
Absolutely.
Yeah, I've heard that from many people on the ground.
But Ron Johnson needs help.
That would be such a disappointment to see Ron Johnson lose in what otherwise would be a wave year.
Wisconsin's tough to pull, isn't it?
Wisconsin is tough to poll, but just as what happened in Wyoming and she spent too much time talking about talking about Trump, I think we'd like to see Ron Johnson probably talk a little less about Biden's laptop and a little more about Wisconsin.
Yeah, I think he'll make the pivot.
Ron Johnson knows how to win when everyone counts him out.
That is a very, very tough state to pull, especially when you get the get to the northern parts of the state.
I think Ron will pull up this and be very, tight.
Robert Cahale from the Trafalgar Group, thank you so much.
Thank you.
Always honor to be here, Charlie.
You do great work.
You do great work.
Thank you.
Likewise, thank you.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email me your thoughts as always.
Freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening.
God bless.
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