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July 23, 2022 - The Charlie Kirk Show
34:57
Around the Electoral Horn—A Midterm Polling Update with Rich Baris
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Georgia, Arizona, and Florida Trends 00:01:49
Hey, everybody.
Pay on the Charlie Kirk show.
Rich Barris from Big Data Polls.
We go around the horn.
How's Georgia looking?
How's Arizona looking?
How's Florida looking?
Why has Florida become more Republican and Georgia more liberal?
What's going on with Carrie Lake?
What's going on with Blake Masters?
All of that and more.
Also, what's going on with Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania with the great Richard Barris?
Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
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Buckle up, everybody.
Here we go.
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With us right now is Richard Barris, people's pundit, and does a great job.
Richard, welcome back to the program.
Hey, thanks for having me back, Charlie.
Always a pleasure to be here.
So, we're going to keep you for the full hour here.
We're going to go into great detail of what's happening into the midterm, coming in the midterms, the primaries that still have yet to happen.
We get so many questions about all of this.
So, let's just ask a 35,000-foot view question first.
Midterm Polling and Primary Outlooks 00:14:25
Where does the generic ballot stand?
What do you think, all things being equal, are Republicans' chances of taking the House and the Senate going into November?
So, I think the generic ballot, Charlie, is between five and eight points, if I'm being a little bit generous.
And the reason I'm saying that is because even our national generic ballot was a big lead for a while.
It did tighten.
I'm starting to see some of the national numbers widen out a little bit again for Republicans, but district by district, we get a little bit more granular.
There are some districts that Republicans should be running away with if they had a big generic ballot lead that still are a little bit closer than you would expect.
That in the end, when we round the corner on Labor Day, that could all change, or maybe the national numbers are kind of leading.
And as we get, you know, a couple couple weeks into it, they'll look more rosy for Republicans.
But every time, and you know, we were talking about this the last time, every time Republicans look like they're going to start to stretch their legs and run away, they do something stupid and it bothers their base.
I mean, it's you can count on it, you can set your watch by it at this point.
Yeah, and it just seems as if they think they're going to win over voters in the middle, but the exact opposite is happening.
Post-Roe versus Wade, have we seen any tightening?
Has it been the boost that Democrats would have hoped it would be for them?
I don't think it's Roe at all.
What's happening on the ground?
I don't, you know, any tightening that we are seeing is not really from Roe.
It's about motivation to vote, likely voter models.
Uh, you have to get your base pump, but you also have to get those leaning independents, those independents that lean your way to vote disproportionately towards you, plus persuadable things, right?
Uh, issues that are a matter of persuadable voters.
There are just not that many out there anymore.
Um, so it makes all the difference when you can persuade a little bit and then you can motivate your side.
Democrats, uh, you know, this idea that abortion came into the picture and changed the dynamic is ridiculous.
We call them the new cycle Democrat.
You know, two months ago, they would have told you Ukraine is their number one issue in foreign policy now.
They care so much about a week before the Roe ruling, it was guns because of the mass shootings we saw the media pump up and actually helped to spark more of copycats.
But then a week later, Roe came out and abortion became the focus of these people.
The truth is, those who really are persuadable are not going to vote on Roe v. Wade.
They're going to vote on inflation.
They're going to vote on the economy, pocketbook issues, things that matter to them.
And that's why Republicans need to be careful and make sure that they're putting themselves in the position of being that opposition party.
If you're complaining about inflation, you cannot send billions upon billions upon billions of dollars to other countries.
If you're claiming that you're going to be a party that's looking out for the working class family, the working class voter in this country, you can't be sneaking in amnesties.
If you care about being the party of the Bill of Rights, you can't be sneaking in last-minute gun grabs.
So, you know, it's the old Ronald Reagan's, you know, used to say this all the time.
Don't paint in these pale pastels.
You need to be bold contrasts.
And they don't, they have a habit of kidding themselves.
It's really all on them.
What have we learned so far in state-by-state primaries as far as turnout and voter registration favoring Republicans or Democrats?
Yeah, without a doubt.
Republicans, all the metrics, they're owning them.
So you look at a state like North Carolina, which is always an interesting state to look at.
There's a lot of Democrats that are registered Democrats that will never vote at the presidential or senatorial level for the Democratic candidate, unless there's a candidate that's pretending to run as some kind of a moderate.
Republicans are thrashing Democrats in the registration race, but also in that primary, Republicans significantly turned out at higher rates than Democrats did.
So it's a really good sign for Ted Budd, right?
In an election that even if it's a good Republican election, it could still end up being pretty close.
Florida, Republicans are just, they're killing it.
That's a trend that began a while ago, without a doubt.
What do you attribute really exacerbated?
What do you attribute that?
Yeah.
If you read the politicos of the world, they'll tell you that those are all white people changing their registration.
The truth is that stopped happening around 2012, 2013, and it was kind of plateaued and flat for a while.
Donald Trump came in and he pushed those voters that are coming from the Northeast.
He pushed them into the Republican column.
And then also the newly naturalized citizens in South Florida.
I kind of kept my mouth shut with a grin on my face for three years because I could see these Venezuelan populations popping up.
And that's really what it came down to.
And they loved, you know, unlike the educated white voter in the Metro America, they loved Donald Trump.
They loved him.
They loved all the bombast, all the hypermasculinity.
They loved it.
So, yeah, I mean, hypermasculinity.
That's well said.
That's yep.
It's red meat to them.
It really is.
So, you know, Florida, I don't even think at this point anymore, Charlie, Florida is not really.
I mean, we call it a battleground state, but because it's so big, when you start winning certain voters by these margins or certain areas by the margins that Republicans are winning them by, then maybe three points are not so interesting a lot, but it is.
You know, because so, for example, we were reminiscing on a previous program about the RNC's autopsy report.
Do you remember that back in 2012?
Yes.
Yes.
Do you remember that whole thing?
Yeah.
And so we were reminiscing about Reince Priebus and all of that.
And I've always gotten along with Reins.
It's not a slight at his.
I would have done things differently than him, but that's okay.
And they said, we are going to lose Florida.
We're going to lose all these states.
Remember, Florida had Senator Nelson, Democrat?
Yes, Bill Nelson.
Had Obama won it in 12, right?
This was a blue state.
And so over 10 years, what is it from a policy perspective, though, Richard, that has now turned this into incredibly more Republican than Georgia?
Yeah.
Yeah, I'll tell you, that's a really good question.
The answer is really interesting.
So, and that the autopsy was like a million-dollar piece of toilet.
That's exactly total nonsense.
You know, that's it.
You know, the bottom line is when you're going to increase your appeal to working voters, family voters, it's not going to be isolated within one race, right?
And that's something they missed in that autopsy.
But honestly, in Florida, the interesting thing, Bill Nelson, he used to be thought of as a moderate.
So he could do well.
He was an astronaut.
Is that right?
He was an astronaut.
He was a hero.
Astronauts can be beaten.
Just ask Mark Kelly.
That's right.
Don't tell Mark Kelly, but yes.
And by the way, Mark Kelly's leading by roughly the same margins that Bill Nelson was leading Rick Scott by until we called Rick Scott the giant killer back then because that's he would always come in with his 40% favorability rating and yet topple these people that are supposedly unbeatable.
But he did it because he was actually really smart.
He played to the strengths that he saw Republicans had in a state like Florida.
Again, I think this is why you see there is a truth to it that it does really matter where you're coming from, whether it's state-to-state migration or it's international immigration, migration.
It does matter where you're coming from.
That's why Obama and others never really, they wanted to cancel the Wetfoot, Dryfoot policy, because they understood those were immigrants coming that would vote Republican.
Venezuela, they'd rather just topple that regime and not let anybody in from Venezuela because they know these are voters who have lived under the system of government that they are now advocating the United States become.
And this voter that I pulled in South Florida, he said, this is my first election.
I've been here for years, a couple of years now, but I'm allowed to vote.
I can't wait to vote for Donald Trump.
He said, you know, for those of us who have lived under it before, you know the empty promises when you hear them, you know, because we heard these same promises, free health care.
And what did it turn into?
It turned into brutal oppression.
And yeah, we're all equal.
We're all equal at the bottom underneath the shoe of the elite.
That's where we're all equally forced to suffer under.
And then, you know, the truth is CNN, all these other, they had struggled to understand this, all these pundits from these media outlets.
And the Florida poll really said it all.
When you looked at these voters, it wasn't that, you know, their husbands, which was some commentary on CNN, are being bullying their wives to vote for Donald Trump, these Hispanic women.
It's nonsense.
It was in the polling, Charlie.
If you look at the Miami poll, the South Florida poll from the University of Miami, those new voters simply agreed with Donald Trump on everything, including immigration, from culture to the role of government.
To machise.
That's right.
Yes.
Yep.
That's it.
He just, and they never saw those folks come.
I remember Nate Cohen from the New York Times.
I don't understand it, but I see it.
Trump's, his approval rating is really rather strong in Miami.
And I'm just giggling because there's 75,000 new Venezuelan voters there that you didn't see coming.
I love him.
It's over in Florida.
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I want to ask you, Richard, because we're going to go around the horn here.
We'll kind of do this free form.
But I am perplexed, confused, frustrated, irritated.
Use other synonyms if you'd like with Georgia.
What the heck is going on in Georgia?
Why has Florida become more conservative and Georgia has not?
What's going on?
You know, Georgia is another interesting test case.
I mean, you had a lot of Republicans, Southern, good old boys, you know, the establishment who relied on the goodwill of Southern voters for years.
While they never understood that economics is politics, right?
So, if you let in a mini tinsel town into Atlanta, you know, the surrounding suburbs may become blue.
It depends what kind of industry those state governments chose to build up.
And the truth is, they built a professional class sector in that area of the state.
And then also, there's a growing Hispanic population, but it's still largely African-American.
Until Republicans start to make inroads with those voters, like they have with Hispanic voters, then you have to win two-thirds of the white vote.
And it's always going to be close.
You know, the bottom line is, though, I could tell you, you know, Charlie, I did poll Georgia, and I know that some people are seeing polls they don't like, but Donald Trump was outperforming every Republican, including Herschel Walker.
In the rematch now, the national average is about Trump plus 10.
You know, a month and a half ago when we polled it for CD Media, we had an 11-point lead for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.
And this was a state that was like Trump plus two.
You know, even in the polling that we were doing, we did think he was going to carry the state of Georgia.
I think he did carry the state.
I don't want to get you in trouble.
But, you know, the bottom line is it was never Trump plus 11, Trump plus 10.
So why is that?
Trump does better with minorities than Republicans do, than generic Republicans do.
And I know that makes the consultants in Washington, D.C., I know that makes their head explode when they hear that.
But the truth is, all of those people who said that the Republican brand would be damaged among minorities because of Donald Trump, they were completely wrong.
The truth is, those minority voters like Trump more than they like the party.
So this primary has always been so important for the Republican Party and their identity crisis because they had America first has to win this fight.
Yes, let's stay focused on the trenches are going to kill the party.
Let's stay focused.
Let's stay focused on Georgia.
What is the status of the Herschel Walker Warnock race?
You know, I think Walker still, he's got to write that shit, but I still do think he does have a lead.
The last time we spoke, that crappy Quinnipiac poll came out, which everyone had a heart attack over.
You know, I went through the numbers.
Their weight variables must be ridiculous, Charlie, because you can't be winning non-college whites, whites with a college degree, be double digits among black voters and be winning two-thirds of the overall white vote and be down 10 points in the state of Georgia.
It's basic arithmetic.
Even if black voters are 30% of the electorate, roughly 30%, it's not possible to do some basic math.
So after we did talk about that, even Data for Progress, they're a left-wing polling outfit and they tend to poll Democratic primaries better than they poll general elections.
They have a slight Democratic bias in general elections.
Even they had Walker ahead by two still.
Basic Math in Voter Demographics 00:02:23
So I was a little bit flabbergasted in this year.
Uh, where there's a Republican advantage.
But also, Walker had a lot of goodwill he did, and we've polled it multiple times and he had anywhere from a two to six point lead.
It just would have been really difficult.
It was hard for me to swallow even if he made a misstep, it was hard for me to swallow that that would result in some, you know, insurmountable Warnock lead.
That's crazy, especially since it does look like Republicans.
You know, Abrams is just not very electable.
She's not I.
I actually do think that a good Democratic candidate for governor could win that state, but Abrams scares too many people.
So think about it.
You have all these voters who are going to go and re-elect Brian Kemp.
They're, they're going to vote for Warnock too.
I just I, I don't see it Charlie, I don't.
I'd love to pull it again more recent, but I I, if I pegged it anywhere right now, i'd say it's about Walker plus one two, get your act together before you lose.
You know, i'm just being real.
Yeah, communications have been off in that campaign.
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Is any of the negative press affecting Herschel, you think?
I don't think any of the out-of-wedlock stuff does.
You know what could?
You know, comments about no exceptions.
If that's what you believe, then fine.
Communications Strategy and Negative Press 00:15:57
But you have to know how to have a conversation with your communications team before you decide to just drop that bomb on the overall electorate.
You have to deliver it in a way where you don't scare people, especially women in the suburbs who are hoping you just let them focus on inflation and not distract them from other issues.
It just seems like some mishaps that the problem with Walker is that it could start to add up until it really equals you're not ready for prime time.
And if that happens, it's going to be hard for him to dig himself out of that trench.
The best way to deal with this is to prepare yourself for the debate.
Do not pull a David Perdue and hide from the debate.
Do not pull Kelly Lauffler and hide from the debate.
Get people around that can prep you for it, which by the way, I offered to do myself.
You know, you can prep Walker for it and trot him out there.
He's a likable guy, Charlie.
Even if he doesn't seem like he's the sharpest on the minutiae of public policy, he's still super likable and people are going to give him the benefit of the doubt.
And Walker, I mean, Warnock can't afford to open up the personal attacks that we've seen against Walker.
I mean, because Walker could just turn on a debate stage, which he could use to advantage and say, you want to talk about personal lives and you want to bring sex into this as an issue.
I didn't, you know, I'm not the one who presided over the summer camp from hell, okay?
The children's summer camp from hell.
I mean, he could easily throw a lot of stuff in Warnock's face.
So do the debate.
Get ready and do the debate.
Yeah.
Put people at ease.
If you think Walker can pull it off, that's good.
It has to be properly managed.
I do.
But he's got to change.
My concern, though, is he's being micromanaged by GOP consultants.
It's a big concern.
He is.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I'll tell you, I'll just blow this up right now, Charlie.
I'll just tell you.
Someone I know is close with the campaign was venting to me the other day.
We were talking about this.
He sent an email to them saying, contact him.
He'll prep you for the debate.
The GOP consultants, they shut it down.
I offered to help and they shut it down.
They want to just hide him.
They want to hide him.
It's not good.
It's not good.
Look.
Yeah.
It didn't work for Purdue.
It didn't work for Kelly and it won't work for Herschel.
It won't.
That's not good.
Okay.
Well, we'll run out of time.
So let's talk about Pennsylvania.
Oz won the primary narrowly.
A lot of articles are being written saying, Oz is in trouble.
What's going on in Pennsylvania?
You know, I think that there is this push by Republican consultants who didn't have like their guys lost.
So for people who, you know, liked McCormick, Dave McCormick, for instance, you know, more power to you.
But the fact of the matter is, McConnell's hooks were in team McCormick.
All right.
And basically, I think a lot of these articles from Politico that that's Mitch McConnell's favorite place to run and leak stuff to get what he wants.
And I think he's lumping Oz, Herschel, and Blake Masters and JD Vance into this pot because he wants his consultants to take over.
The real issue with Oz over there is that you have Kathy Barnett and others who refuse to let this go.
I'm not, you know, I'm not paid to be nice to people.
I'm being honest here.
You were wrong.
You lost.
Move on.
It's not a house seat where somebody can be in there for two years and the pendulum swings and you can ounce them.
You're talking about a six-year tenure where they build up enormous war chests and a lot of IOUs.
So if it's going to make you feel better to give that seat to Fetterman, you're going to have to live with that.
I mean, at the end of the day, I think a lot of MAGA people are being played by Team McConnell.
I do.
Now, Oz is actually doing a pretty good job.
If you watch him on the ground, he's campaigning.
He's really good.
He's working.
It's just, he's working.
So, you know, and people were mad that he met with some of the Democrats and the state legislature.
He's trying to, he's trying to, there's nothing wrong with trying to reach across the aisle.
When you start caving, then that's it.
There's nothing wrong with saying, hey, here's my number.
Call me with any concerns you may have.
There's a problem happens when here's my number.
Call me when you need me to cave.
But that's not what's happening there.
In the end, he's got to consolidate his base.
There aren't that many independents in the state of Pennsylvania.
The only way that Oz can lose is if a big chunk of his Republican base creates an undervote or if they actually go for Fetterman.
So you really think Oz has a chance to win because people do.
Okay.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah, I do.
And, you know, Labor Day is going to be a very, you know, I remember when people were having heart attacks that Joni Ernst was never going to pull it off against Brady and Honor.
I know.
Yeah, with a ton.
Yeah.
And at the end of the day, Labor Day rolls around.
People start really looking at their choices.
We're in July, but there is structural base issues.
I suppose that the rule of thumb that I've learned is that if you have significant name ID, you get a little bit of a built-in summer advantage, but the gap is usually narrowed as other wave type implications are playing in gas prices, inflation, wokeism, southern border.
And kind of once you get parody on the television and you get parody in ads, and all of a sudden people really start to talk.
and Republicans are less likely to respond to polls, then you start to see it go in that direction.
And not to mention, and I'd love your thoughts on this, Richard, as we talk about next Arizona and the time we have remaining, which I know you've done a lot of polling on that I want you to report on, is this idea of the late and long primary.
So don't let me forget about that.
But first, tell us about what we're seeing in Arizona.
Yeah, we just put out, we just polled Arizona, the state of Arizona.
And I think, you know, I know I don't have a lot of time.
Stick with the Senate first here.
Blake Masters has now opened up a nice lead about just under 11 points, you know, where it is a more crowded race than the governor.
There are some people that withdrew in the governor, but their name will still appear on the ballots.
So you should take that in mind.
Yep, Matt Salmon.
He endorsed Robson, Robeson, however you say it.
But the bottom line is that I think that Masters and Lake are going to be very hard to catch at this point, especially Lake.
I mean, we did see Robson, you know, consolidate some of those more establishment figures.
They got the Pence endorsement.
We waited in the field to see if it would help.
It didn't.
Lake leads with everyone who's most likely to vote, most certain to vote, most enthusiastic to vote.
Her and Blake Masters both.
I want to put that up.
238.
Keep going.
We're going to put the graphic on.
Yeah.
Yeah, Greg.
And we have the Senate one as well.
And you basically, you know, you can see these leads here by county, Charlie.
I mean, if you're leading in Maricopa, it's 60% of the vote in the state.
The second one, which is Pima County, that's about, you know, anywhere between 14 and 237 is that.
We have it about.
Yep.
We have it about at 16%.
And then all the other counties combined making up basically the lion's share of the world vote.
There's just no way at that point to catch somebody when they're winning by these kind of.
So are you here to say that, I mean, so you really believe this race is Kerry Lake's for the governor's race?
I do.
I do.
And I will say this, that the late breakers, the people that were kind of hanging back, that decided in the last day, two days we interviewed, they went for Kerry Lake pretty hard.
I didn't even know about the situation on the ground, but the fundraising attack Kerry Lake used against Robson was very effective.
This idea that there are older people being tricked through text messages, give to the wall, stop Joe Biden here.
And what it turns into is a reoccurring donation to a candidate that had legs.
And voters were telling us during interviews, I was going to vote against Kerry Lake, but I don't like that.
That's a scummy thing you can do.
And I began to want, somebody looked this up and what are they talking about?
And then I found out it was an attack by Lake.
Just so happened to be true.
But when voters are parroting that stuff to you, when you're polling, it has legs.
And I think that no Mike Pence endorsement in the world, the Doug Ducey endorsement is going to help her at this point.
It's just a much easier path for Kerry Lake.
Much easier.
So let's say Kerry Lake and Blake Masters go into the general.
Kerry Lake, I think, actually has an easier general election.
Not easy, but easier.
Let's start there.
Let's say it is nominee Carrie Lake against Katie Hobbs.
What does that look like?
Let me break everybody's brains right now.
We also did that.
And it's not because we were being unfair to the other candidates.
The fact of the matter is those two candidates have enormous leads.
So, when budget for media is an issue, you tell them what you think is right, which is just use the frontrunners and let's see how they're doing against the likely Democrats.
You're 100% correct.
Kerry Lake is running stronger against Katie Hobbs than Blake Masters is running against Mark Kelly.
That being said, give us the numbers.
Arizona's, yeah, Arizona's a tricky state to poll.
And I think most people will end up underestimating Blake Masters because of the support he has among a certain group of men that most Republicans, other than Donald Trump, can't get.
And Joe Rogan.
Blake Masters.
Joe Rogan men.
That's exactly right.
It's a great way to characterize them.
I never thought of that.
I just echoed the demographics.
Joe Rogan men.
You could steal it.
Yeah.
Blake Masters will dominate Joe Rogan men.
Yeah.
He's trailing Mark Kelly a little bit, but Kelly is not near 50%.
What's a little bit five to six or two to three?
What are we looking at?
Three to five.
Okay, that's manageable.
It's close, a lot closer.
It is manageable.
And Kerry Lake has a lead.
Kerry Lake is right now, she's going to beat Hobbs.
You know what's funny?
We polled the primary for governor as well.
For some reason, Hobbes is in the 50s, even though only you have Mark Lopez running against her.
And then you have Aaron Lieberman, who withdrew.
Yet some of these people get about 15% who say they're going for Lopez, another 5% or so saying, I'll still vote for Lieberman.
She's in the 50s with a huge undecided.
Democratic voters told us they're not thrilled with the Secretary of State.
They're just that this is the same thing.
She's been scandal ridden.
So do you think Masters can pull it off against Kelly for three reasons?
I think he could do better with East Valley LDS voters that Trump did not resonate with, Mormon voters and Mesa and Chandler and Gilbert.
I think he can get Joe Rogan men out to vote.
And I don't think he turns off Paradise Valley Scottsdale soccer moms at all.
I think he could actually be at parity with moms that are seeing the wokeism in schools, that are seeing the mat, that's all the mask mandates, but they just don't like Trump.
Blake Masters is an easier sell.
Would you agree with that?
Yeah, I do.
He keeps those men that Trump had a difficult time.
I mean, I had a great time winning, but then he doesn't turn off, especially when we get again to Labor Day.
And Blake Masters is making this a conversation about inflation, wokeism.
You know, Mark Kelly never really had to defend himself, the border.
Martha McSally, you know, was just not a great candidate.
And yet she did.
She almost beat.
There are some of those McCain Republicans left who tell us they want to vote for Mark Kelly, whereas about 6.5% of Republicans say they'll vote for Mark Kelly, but he needs to win those independents by the margin that Lake is winning them.
And the reason I say this is because as we saw those interviews with those men, you could see the governor's race not really moving.
What was changing was how big Masters' lead was going in the Senate primary.
They bumped him to double digits.
Without them, he'd be at like a five to seven point lead.
And he'd be honestly, he'd be down to Mark Kelly by 6.7 points or more.
They're the ones keeping it close.
So again, this is kind of funny, Charlie, because these people told us that Kerry Lake could not win a gubernatorial election.
She is by far the strongest gubernatorial candidate.
That's so insulting.
It's almost every time these consultants in DC make this proclamation, they end up being not just wrong, but completely the opposite of the truth.
So just to make sure I understand, your polling shows Kerry Lake as the most likely to defeat Katie Hobbs.
I've been told the exact opposite by every Republican consultant here in Arizona.
Without a doubt, Robeson is not going to get those men.
They're not going to run out and vote for her.
And by the way, we went over this back in 2020.
And, you know, they're all of those Arizona consultants and all of those DC consultants, and God love them.
But, you know, we were getting Republican chairs and others from Arizona saying, is this what your polling is showing?
And they were showing McSally within two, three points, within striking distance.
You had Donald Trump down to Biden by eight.
And I'm, and, you know, I came back and I would say, no, we had the complete opposite.
Donald Trump is performing about three to five points better than Martha McSally.
And here is why the Joe Rogan mail.
There are more of them when you can get them to come out.
And by the way, they're the ones most angry right now in the state of Arizona.
They are the most pissed off and motivated voter.
They're just hard to reach.
You're not going to reach them with a live caller interview.
All right, media, that's not going to happen.
That's why you got Biden plus eight.
So in closing here, Richard, I want to ask you, what are just some other just kind of surprise races you got your eyes on?
Can we flip a Washington?
Can we flip a Vermont?
You know, what are you looking at where you're usually good at pinpointing this?
Show me a little subterranean sneaky race here.
What do we got?
You know, even Virginia 10, for instance, right?
That's, you know, everyone's looking at Virginia 7, which is Abigail Spanberger, Spangler, however, you say it, the former CIA, you know, employee who took over Bratzy, Dave Bratzy.
Redistricting made both of those districts a little bit more difficult.
But I'm telling you, when we were polling the state of Virginia, seven and 10 both looked like they were going to go.
And seven was significantly leading Republican.
10 was about even.
So 10 should not be even in the state of Virginia.
That's about a 10 to 12 point shift away from what we saw in 2020.
But it's believable because that's exactly how Machumpin shifted the entire state.
So you have a race like that that you need to keep an eye on.
Republicans have a great, I don't want to butcher his name, but they have a great candidate who won the primary out there.
And he's exactly the kind of candidate Republicans would need to take that.
There are there, it has been some polling in states like Oregon, you know, where it looks close.
I think O'Day could surprise people in Colorado.
I was really impressed, not just with the vote total.
I'm talking about the coalitions that came out and supported O'Day in the state of Colorado, a state that is like the wild west with election integrity.
You know, it's just a total free-for-all out there.
But yeah, I think O'Day could be a sleeper seat, you know, where if Republicans were to lose a Pennsylvania or lose a Georgia, even if they had a good night, they could make it up by picking up something like Oregon or Colorado, something shocking.
You know, so Washington, I always thought was always going to be a little bit out of reach, but we'll see.
You know, even by the way, New Hampshire is too close for Democrats, too close.
Richard Barris, everybody, People's Pundit, big data polls.
Colorado Coalitions and Election Integrity 00:00:22
God bless you, Richard.
We'll have you back on Zoom.
We never have enough time.
I have more questions.
That'll be for next time.
Thanks so much.
All the best.
Thank you so much for listening, everybody.
Email me your thoughts as always, freedom at charliekirk.com.
Thanks so much for listening.
God bless.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk. com.
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