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March 18, 2022 - The Charlie Kirk Show
32:06
The One Man Who Could Change My Mind on Ukraine
Transcriber: nvidia/parakeet-tdt-0.6b-v2, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Passing Down American Values 00:01:50
Hey everybody, the one man who could convince me to think differently about Ukraine.
This hour, we go through the great Victor Davis Hansen's piece on Ukraine, one of America's most gifted minds.
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Why No-Fly Zones Fail 00:12:18
Nothing bothers me more than people that are stuck in dogmatic positions, especially when it comes to foreign policy.
Foreign policy is the most complicated of all the decisions that could be made because there are so many different incentives.
There's philosophical arguments that could be made on both sides.
There's arguments of prudence, circumstance, motivations, actors.
There's a chess game to be played.
Foreign policy can be very, very complex.
It is not cut and dry, despite what the people on television try to tell you.
Now, there's a lot of, let's say, uninformed people on television that are clamoring to try to get us into a no-fly zone or war, if you will, in Russia and Ukraine.
We've obviously pushed back against that.
There are very few people that I respect when it comes to writing about these issues and thinking deeply about what's happening on the geopolitical stage.
One of those people, though, the only person that could probably make me stop, I shouldn't say only person, but one of the only people that could make me stop what I'm doing, drop whatever I'm reading, and take every word that is published seriously.
There's one person that when he speaks about an issue of current affairs or foreign affairs, I say before I read it, I say he knows far more than I do, and I'm going to respect exactly where he's coming from.
This person is someone that you've read and you've probably seen him on television.
You see, he was not a political commentator for most of his life.
In fact, he still isn't.
He's a philosopher.
He's a classicist.
You see, he spent the first 30 to 40 years of his life studying things that were ancient and beautiful and true.
He is one of the most fluent experts when it comes to ancient warfare, Sparta v. Athens, Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle, the ancient Greek and Roman experiments in government.
I'm of course talking about Victor Davis Hansen.
Victor Davis Hansen is a military historian.
He has become an almost, let's say, outsourced teacher of mine.
He's not personally taught me anything as far as one-on-one, but I have taken many of his courses brought to you by Hillsdale College, including his citizenship course, which should be a required project for every single student in America.
I have read many of his books, including The Dying Citizen.
He wrote one of the most effective arguments in favor of Donald Trump.
I listen to his podcasts.
Victor Davis Hansen is not ideological, instead, he is philosophically rooted in things that are beautiful and true and eternal.
His understanding of American history, his observation of human nature, his fairness when it comes to looking at current events is something that should make us all take pause and say, what is VDH saying about this?
Now, the man who really discovered Victor Davis Hansen on the public stage was, of course, the great Rush Limbaugh.
You can go back in the archives of the Rush Limbaugh program back in 2002, 2003, and he was like, who is this Victor Davis Hansen guy?
He is spot on.
Simultaneously, Dr. Larry Arn from Hillsdale College also had given him some positions at Hillsdale before anyone had heard of Victor Davis Hansen.
Victor Davis Hansen coined the phrase muscular class.
He is very focused on revitalizing the American citizen.
So much of the kind of nomenclature that is used on the conservative political commentary side stems from Victor Davis Hansen.
And the reason is that for 30 to 40 years, Victor Davis Hansen did not care about the popularity of his columns.
He did not care about the perspective of what people thought of him.
He was studying ancient history, military movements.
His class on the Second World Wars at Hillsdale is phenomenal.
So all of that lead up for this, which is when Victor Davis Hansen recently published a series of articles on Ukraine, I had to stop what I was doing, put my phone down and say, all right, I'm going to just look at this at a blank slate.
I have so much respect for this man that no matter what he says in here, I'm going to entertain with an open mind, and I better have a good counter argument to what he says, because he has far more wisdom than the combined intelligence of the cable news, quote-unquote, intelligentsia.
So I rarely do this, but I want to go through this article by Victor Davis Hansen, 10 Realities of Ukraine.
We're going to go through piece by piece.
And I'm also going to weave in some of the other articles he has written about this and an analogy that Victor Davis Hansen wrote about Vladimir Putin being like a caged animal.
I think it's a phenomenal analogy.
But we're going to go through this because we always try to keep an open mind.
We want to get a better grasp of what is happening, and you should too.
If you have a position that says we need a no-fly zone over Ukraine, or if you have a position that said we should not get involved in Ukraine at all, no matter what in life, you should always be open to the better argument.
Now, you could entertain it for 30 seconds to be like, that's a bad argument.
I'm not going to accept that.
This is what a mature society does.
That is the philosophical and moral basis of the First Amendment and freedom of speech, which is better ideas need an opportunity to be spread and to be spoken.
Ideas need an opportunity to come up against one another.
Victor Davis Hansen, 10 Realities of Ukraine.
One, Victor writes, reassuring an enemy.
What one will not do ensures that the enemy will do just that and more.
Unpredictability and occasional enigmatic silence bolsters deterrence.
But Joe Biden's predictable reassurance to Vladimir Putin that he will show restraint means Putin likely will not.
Totally agree with that.
Number two.
Now, this is an interesting one for the neoconservatives.
This is one for all the people that are clamoring for a no-fly zone.
And I encourage Adam Kinzinger to all the people that are calling for a no-fly zone: why don't you go have a one-on-one conversation with Victor Davis Hansen?
He knows a lot more about this than you ever will.
Quote: No-fly zones don't work in a big power, symmetrical standoff.
In a cost-benefit analysis, they are not worth the risk of shooting down the planes of a nuclear power.
Professor Hansen writes, quote, they usually do little to stop planes outside of such zones shooting missiles into them.
Sending long-range, high-altitude anti-aircraft batteries to Ukraine to deny Russian air superiority is a far better way of regaining air parity.
So that's Victor Davis Hanson basically, quote unquote, get it shooting down the argument that Zelensky made in front of Congress, which is, please give us a no-fly zone.
Please give us the ability to be able to control our skies.
Victor Davis Hansen says, quote, no-fly zones don't work in a big power, symmetrical standoff.
In a cost-benefit analysis, they're not worth the risk of shooting down planes of a nuclear power.
That's someone who has studied more military battles and teaches about those military battles.
Why don't we hear this on television?
Why is the sobering analysis of Victor Davis Hanson when it comes to the no-fly zones not contributed to the conversation or the narrative?
Or is it just kind of like this outsourced video game?
Like, it feels good, we're going to do it.
Well, Professor Hansen says, you better stop short before implementing a no-fly zone.
We're going to go through these 10 pieces of the master historian himself, the American patriot who understands history with wisdom and prudence and wants what's best for the American people.
They're now saying it's Putin's gas price hike, which will be felt by the muscular class, the middle class, disproportionately.
Play cut 85.
Make no mistake, the current spike in gas prices is largely the fault of Vladimir Putin.
It has nothing to do with the American rescue plan.
Well, we've seen the price of gas go up at least 75 cents since President Putin lined up troops on the border of Ukraine.
Make no mistake, inflation is largely the fault of Putin.
Through the facts, Democrats didn't cause this problem.
Vladimir Putin did.
People already, already feeling Putin's price hikes at the pump.
So I decided to do some digging.
I decided to go back into the archives and wonder what was the message that the Biden regime and Europe was sending to Vladimir Putin when it comes to energy.
I actually found this on Victor Davis Hansen's website that was written about one of his colleagues.
Quote, in June, Joe Biden and German leader Angela Merkel agreed that the United States would not enforce its sanctions against Nord Stream II under sea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany.
Biden and Merkel presented this as a way to repair German-United States relations.
Although the pipeline is an existential issue for Ukraine, which will lose security leverage now, that vast Russian gas deliveries will now circumvent Ukraine.
This is back in September, this was written.
President Zelensky learned of the German-American agreement through the press.
Similarly, Biden's one-on-one meeting in Geneva with Putin in June was received as a potential sellout of Ukraine.
So that's really interesting.
And that really wasn't covered very much, was it?
Which is that there is a meeting between Biden and Merkel back in June where basically it was broadcast to Vladimir Putin, hey, you're going to get your pipeline.
So what does that mean for the calculation of the sinister Vladimir Putin?
He's like, all right, I got leverage.
I have cards in the game.
Europe can only go so far.
Europe can only keep the lights on thanks to our regime.
What a perfect time to go invade.
And that's number three of Victor Davis Hansen's point.
Europe and NATO members and Germany in particular have de facto admitted that their past decades of shutting down nuclear plants and coal mines and oil and gas fields have left Europe at the mercy of Russia.
That is primarily because of the environmentalists and the climate change cultists.
They are promising to rearm and meet their promised military contributions.
By their actions, they're admitting that their critics, the United States in particular, were right and they were dangerously wrong in empowering Putin.
In a headline that just came out in the last couple of days, Germany is now thinking of rebuilding coal-powered coal-fire power plants.
The dirtiest of all the fossil fuels.
Germany wants to get back to cheap energy immediately.
If they only would have embraced an LNG strategy, liquefied natural gas, if they only would have partnered with the United States, maybe they wouldn't have had this geopolitical tiger in the cage that was created, which of course is Vladimir Putin.
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China Aligns With Russia 00:12:55
Number four, on Victor Davis Hansen's article here, China is now pro-Russian.
Beijing wants Russian natural resources at a discount, and Russia will pay for overpriced access to Chinese finance, commerce, and markets.
Yet if Russia loses the Ukraine war, goes broke, and is ostracized at an international pariah, then China will likely cut the smelly Russian albatross from its neck in fear of a new Western financial, cultural, and commercial clout.
So this is an interesting point, which is that China is now seeing more benefit in being aligned with Russia than with the West.
Now, that's a dangerous dance, I have to say.
And China, there's a lot of paranoia right now in Beijing.
There's a lot of disagreement, I'm sure, happening in Beijing, and they're looking at this very carefully.
First of all, they're looking at the cost, the human cost, the financial cost of what it would require to go take Taiwan, a land that you think is yours.
Okay.
Well, the entire world could shut you off financially.
You could lose thousands of people.
Your morale could go down.
Xi Jinping wants to keep his grip on power.
And look, I'm going to say something about the differences of cultures.
The Russian culture is a fighting culture.
War is built into the history of Russia.
The current Chinese regime is not a fighting culture.
It's not.
They were conquered by the Japanese.
They were a poor nation for the last couple hundred years.
Now, you could go back into dynasties prior, and they were a fighting culture, but that has not been the case for quite a while.
China became a peasant nation as the rest of the world industrialized.
Mainland Manchuria was far from a military powerhouse.
In fact, there is a psychological issue between the Chinese people and the Japanese, where there are still people in the Chinese nation that fear the samurai culture and fear the Japanese dominance of mainland China, which happened all throughout the 1920s, mainly 30s and 40s, which led up to World War II.
Japan basically dominated China.
They did whatever they want.
And by the way, it was brutal.
It was probably genocidal.
We don't even know all the details to it because there really was not a lot of cataloging, a lot of its first-hand testimony.
But based on all the evidence we have, Imperial Japan probably committed genocide against the people of mainland China.
And they only wanted to occupy China for its access to its fertile lands, primarily in the West.
And they just rolled over Manchuria, China.
Those wounds are still felt in China.
You better believe that.
So the Russian fighting culture, where they famously defeated the invasion of Napoleon in 1812, where Catherine the Great before that expanded her lands and her territory, where the Russian people were just about, I think it was like 35 kilometers from the Nazis taking over Moscow.
And you could almost see the lights of Moscow in the distance at the furthest kind of panzer tank division and were stopped.
And the Luftwaffe was doing bombing campaigns outside of the suburbs of Moscow.
And the Russian people have great pride in the story of almost losing Stalingrad in a street brawl and turning the entire war back towards eventually the Western Front, finding the Nazis in Ukraine and pushing them all the way back to Berlin.
There's a massive amount of intergenerational pride there.
So you're dealing with two different cultures there.
Now, I'm not saying the Chinese are not one to be taken seriously, but from a militaristic standpoint, from an etho standpoint, from a morale standpoint, the Russians are far superior.
And if they're struggling in Ukraine, you better believe the Chinese military officials are saying, oh my goodness, I hope we don't have to fight anytime soon.
Because we don't know what our people will do.
They have not seen serious combat in multiple generations.
Let me say that again.
The Chinese nation has not seen serious combat.
The only examples would be intervening in North Vietnam on behalf of the Viet Cong or intervening, just throwing millions of bodies against the United States in the Korean War to help out the communist cause, which then created now known as North Korea.
So something to keep in mind there, the differences between the Russian culture and the Chinese culture.
Number five from Victor Davis Hansen.
Americans are finally digesting just how destructive the humiliating flight from Afghanistan was.
The catastrophe signaled to Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran that Western deterrence had died.
Now, I'll be very honest, we said this at the time, but it just kind of became this like program talking point on the right that I don't think we explored deep enough on this program where we said, listen, what happened in Kabul, what happened with the closure of Bagram Air Base, what happened with the Taliban taking over Afghanistan, that's going to send a message to China, send a message to Russia, do whatever they want.
And we kind of said this time and time again, but it was not just true.
It was instructive.
Victor Davis Hansen writes, There's no surprise that Russia then sent missiles into a Ukrainian base near the Polish-NATO border.
North Korea in January launched more missiles than in any month in its history, and Iran sent missiles into Kurdistan.
China announces daily that it's just a matter of time until it absorbs Taiwan.
The tens of billions of dollars of sophisticated weaponry sent to Ukraine by the West are still far less of the U.S. military handed over to the terrorist Taliban.
I'm going to play some tape here.
I want us to go back and just remember how humiliating this actually was and how the Afghanistan withdrawal really set the baseline.
It set the conditions for what we are now experiencing all across the world.
Okay, let's go to Cut 108.
Afghanistan cannot be used as a terrorist base that Afghanistan has become a Disneyland for terrorists to be planned for every contingency.
Total chaos.
It is heartbreaking.
It is depressing.
It's a failure.
And he needs to own that failure.
Bear responsibility for all that's happened.
He did not admit any mistakes.
He did not offer any change, of course.
He says we're going to continue forward.
He really isn't taking responsibility.
Mr. Biden, you did this.
You made the deal with the Taliban.
This is the consequences of it.
Go to hell, Biden.
That was a 24-7 infomercial that our adversaries, Putin, China, saw, internalized, and they started to game plan.
They started to see what happened there, and they said, we smell blood in the water.
Number six, this is very obvious.
The Ukrainian war, Russian war against Ukraine, did not cause inflation and record gas prices.
Prior to Putin's invasion, Biden was quite publicly blamed, greedy corporations.
We've gone into that.
I could play some more tapes here of just their new talking point.
I think it's actually helpful, as they continue to try to say this is all on Putin, this is all on Putin.
Let's go to Cut 76.
Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm says Americans should see Biden's outreach to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to get them to produce more oil as, quote, something that helps them.
No mention of American energy production, no LNG exploration, no one powering the Permian, no one powering the Balkan, no empowering the Marcella Shale.
Play Cut 76.
The administration's reaching out to Saudi Arabia and to Venezuela, I think folks that many Americans might consider unsavory characters in this search for energy to kind of fill this Russian energy void.
How should Americans view this?
I think Americans should see the administration calling right now for an increase in supply as something that helps them.
And that's what it's increased supply at home and increased supply around the world so that we can reduce the cost at the pump.
That's your energy secretary who is captured by the green energy environmentalists.
Number seven, Victor Davis Hansen writes, Putin did not invade during the Trump tenure.
Although he had been more aggressive under previous American leadership with his attacks in Georgia, Ukraine, and Crimea, Russia stayed still when oil prices were low and fuel supplies in the West were plentiful and the United States was confident.
Putin took note of increased NATO and U.S. defense spending.
He feared low global oil prices and record oil and gas production on the American side.
He was wary after unpredictable American strikes against enemies like ISIS, Abdul al-Baghdadi, and Iranian general Qassam Soleimani.
The unpredictability, the inability to be able to know what Trump was going to do next, kept Putin in a passive posture, not an active posture.
Not only is Biden weak, which is bad, but Biden is predictably weak.
It's one thing to be weak.
It's another thing to broadcast your weakness and tell people you are going to be weak before you're actually weak.
Now, number eight, this is why I always keep an open mind.
And I got to tell you, now that Victor writes this, I take this very, very seriously.
It's something that we have been very skeptical of, something that we have pushed back against, and we've been asking questions.
But this is Victor.
Quote: It is not escalation to send arms to Ukraine.
The Russians far more aggressively supplied the North Koreans and North Vietnamese in their wars against America without spreading the war globally.
Pakistan, Syria, and Iran sent deadly weapons, many in turn supplied to them by Russia, North Korea, and China to kill thousands of Americans during the Afghan and Iraq wars.
And I have to say, Victor brings up a really good point here.
You know, we have a couple Marines serving on our security team here.
And I asked him, I said, what was the most common weapon that you guys had to fight back against?
They said it at AK-47, obviously, Kalishnikov.
And so even though Russia might not have been directly involved with troops on the ground in military strikes in our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, obviously we've been against the Iraq war, but I want us to win.
I want America to win no matter what war we're in because we're patriots.
I would never cheer for our defeat ever.
But you think about it, if the Russians were generously funding weapon transfers against our troops in the Middle East, and that didn't quote unquote escalate their involvement, Victor brings up a good point that I really haven't thought to see a counterpoint to, then why wouldn't we also do the same in a conflict of theater that they're in?
Something to think about.
Nine, Putin may never fully absorb Ukraine as long as it can be supplied across its borders by four NATO countries.
The United States deadlocked in the Korean War.
We lost the Vietnam War and was stalled in Iraq and fled Afghanistan in part because its enemies were easily supplied by border friends on the assumptions the United States could not strike such a better.
So basically, VDH is saying, look, it's going to be hard to conquer Ukraine because of the neighbors, because you can have an inside-out relationship with troops and movements and intelligence and weapons.
You can fight, go back to Poland.
Fight, go back to Poland.
It's exactly what the Taliban did and the Islamic fundamentalists did that we were fighting Afghanistan.
They'd fight a bunch of American Marines in fighting season, go back to Pakistan.
Fight, go back to Pakistan.
And since we are not at war with Pakistan and we have this very bizarre relationship with Pakistan, to put it mildly, it gave the Taliban an advantage.
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Playing Offense Against Putin 00:05:01
Victor Davis Hansen finishes the piece by saying, quote, it is not un-American to point out that prior American appeasement under Obama and Biden explains why Putin wished to go into Ukraine.
Explains not why Putin wished to go into Ukraine, but felt he could.
It is not treasonous to say Ukraine and the United States previously should have stayed out of others' domestic affairs and politics.
Let me stop right there.
If you guys are interested at all in the lead up to what happened in Ukraine, I encourage you to check out the Charlie Kirk Show podcast and our conversation with Pedro Gonzalez.
So you guys have got to check that out.
So, but let me read this also from a similar VDH piece, which, again, this is a pretty amazing argument.
So, Victor Davis Hansen compares Vladimir Putin to a caged animal.
He says, quote, when a zoo tiger tears a human being apart who is an incautious visitor, we assume the big cat is a natural killer that is always hungry and looking for food, yet needs some sort of opening to spring free.
If he kills and swallows a bit of an unfortunate gawker, we usually assume the tiger is capable of such savagery anytime he is empowered.
But again, he must be aided and abetted to act on the innate nature.
So we don't necessarily blame only the tiger for being a carnivore and prompting the tragedy.
Given his predictable predatory nature, we also turn our attention to who or what allowed the killer to satisfy his hunger.
Does the culpable include the incautious visitor that got too close to the guardrails, the lax zoo that poorly managed the big cat enclosure, or even the zoo architect whose originally poorly designed exhibit helps to allow such an eventful catastrophe?
So what is Victor Davis Hansen saying here?
He's saying that, oh yeah, Putin is a savage animal.
He's a savage tiger, and he has at his core a desire to eat and to prey on anything that comes into his cage.
But he's also saying, what about the numbskull that gets too close to the carnivore?
What about the numbskull that starts poking the tiger?
Don't we factor that into our calculus?
Now, why would Victor Davis Hansen be mentioning that?
Well, he's mentioning the Lindsey Graham and John McCain types who said it's time to go play offense.
Do we have that tape of Lindsey Graham?
It's a perfect time to play that if we can.
If we can get that queued up.
Where when Victor Davis Hansen talks about quote-unquote poking the bear, when Victor Davis Hansen talks about we need to play offense, that's the same thing, that we need to try to irritate the tiger in the cage.
And so when we look at the Ukrainian-Russian situation, this is Putin's war.
This is Putin's savagery.
These are Putin's war crimes.
What prompted him to do it?
What provoked the tiger to let loose?
Did the United States and NATO open the cage by giving false hopes to Ukraine that they would join NATO?
Did the United States poke the tiger in the cage by saying we're going to put nuclear weapons on the border of Russia?
How would you feel if you live in Houston, Texas, and the KGB, the Russian government, would overtake the Mexican government, displace the Mexican leader with a Russian sympathetic leader, and put nuclear weapons on the Texas border?
How would you react to such an action?
Play Lindsey Graham, please, but play it only for 30 seconds.
Play it.
Your fight is our fight.
2017 will be the year of offense.
All of us will go back to Washington and we will push the case against Russia.
Enough of a Russian aggression.
It is time for them to pay a heavier price.
It is the year of playing offense.
They have to play a heavier price.
Imagine a Russian politician going to Mexico City or Ottawa, taking over the government, displacing it through a pseudo-color revolution, and saying it's time to play offense against America.
It would be wrong if we invaded Mexico, but you would have to say what would be the conditions and the poking of the tiger that might have led to that.
Thanks so much for listening, everybody.
Email us your thoughts.
It's always freedom at CharlieKirk.com.
Thanks so much.
Talk to you soon.
For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to CharlieKirk.com.
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