All Episodes
July 31, 2025 - Bannon's War Room
48:51
Episode 4672: Redistricting In Texas; Maintaining A Strong Economy
Participants
Main voices
b
bob hall
05:12
j
joe lavorgna
05:31
s
steve bannon
24:09
Appearances
c
caroline wren
04:00
d
dave weigel
01:14
k
ken paxton
02:11
m
marc elias
02:27
r
rand paul
01:15
Clips
j
jake tapper
00:10
n
nicolle wallace
00:03
s
stephanie ruhle
00:15
w
willie geist
00:56
| Copy link to current segment

Speaker Time Text
willie geist
Republicans in Texas yesterday released the first draft of a new congressional map aimed at picking up five seats in next year's midterms.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott added redistricting to the special session agenda at the urging of President Trump and his political team.
Republicans currently control 25 of the 38 congressional districts in Texas.
Under the new maps, the President Trump would have carried 30 of 38 seats, all by more than 10 points.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is in Texas meeting with Democrats as they weigh their options on how to fight the redistricting efforts, which could include leaving the state.
Jeffries is supposed to hold a news conference today at the state capitol in Austin.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tribune has new reporting that California Governor Gavin Newsom has told AIDS he will move forward with a plan to redraw his state's congressional lines to install more Democrats if Texas Republicans pass their own updated map.
marc elias
What Donald Trump is doing to the rule of law is he is breaking it.
What he is doing to our democracy is subverting it.
And those are active verbs.
Those are not he will subvert or he may undermine.
Like he is doing these things.
He is already going after his political enemies by misusing the Department of Justice.
He is already breaking federal law and the U.S. Constitution.
And he already is acting like an authoritarian.
And as we move towards the next phase of challenges for our democracy, which are free and fair elections in 2026, we need to have no illusions.
He has no expectation that he is going to follow what the law is or be constrained.
He is completely outcome determined.
dave weigel
That's the part that's unusual.
The Supreme Court, actually starting in Texas in 2003, clarified that states can redistrict gerrymander whenever they want.
It doesn't need to be right after the census.
And what is unique this time is how little pretense there is that this is about anything but helping Trump get more seats.
And so this started with Harmee Dylan at the DOJ sending Texas a letter and saying we have civil rights concerns about some of the majority minority districts that were drawn in 2021.
But listening to the Republicans defending this and posting about social media, they are describing this, the problems in Austin, as giving Trump five more seats.
And talking to Republicans in Indiana and Missouri, other places where they have the power to draw more seats if they want to, that is how they phrase it.
It is not, we are restoring the justice that was denied to us by the previous map or this is going to better represent these constituents.
It is, we want Trump to have more seats.
He deserves more seats.
We need to stop the left from taking power.
And that's what the position Democrats are put in there is: do they want to defend the idea of independent commissions or something else?
They just want to say this is tit for tat.
We cannot allow them to turn the country into the comparison I hear the most often is hungry.
nicolle wallace
Talk about what you see on the ground on the other side.
marc elias
Oh, it's happening everywhere.
I mean, you know, the fact is, Donald Trump and the vote suppressors, the election deniers, they look at the results of 2024 and they say, we won, right?
We accomplished what we wanted to accomplish.
And so, sure, they didn't have to actually steal any elections for president after 2024 because Donald Trump won the popular vote and won the Electoral College.
But they then rolled that out in North Carolina to try to do just that.
And they are quite emboldened.
You know, they view North Carolina not as a defeat, but as a lesson learned for the tactics that are working and the tactics that need to be improved.
They look at their voter challenge program in states like Georgia, again, as tactics that they will refine as we move forward to Senator Ofsau's reelection there.
And it is happening in every state in the country.
I mean, there is not a state in the country in which Republicans and the RNC and the right-wing, vast right-wing dark money groups funded by billionaires are not active.
I mean, I see them in court.
My law firm and I, we are in 50 lawsuits in more than 25 states.
Like we're in half the country.
The RNC, by the way, is litigating 75 lawsuits in 40 some-odd states.
I mean, there's a lot going on here.
And from the Republican standpoint, they are emboldened.
They think they have the courts at their back.
They have the president with executive orders.
They've got a grassroots army of vote suppressors.
They've got a team full of election deniers and local and county boards.
So we all need to buckle up and be ready to fight back.
steve bannon
This is the primal scream of a dying regime.
Pray for our enemies because we're going medieval on these people.
Here's not got a free shot on all these networks lying about the people.
The people have had a belly full of it.
I know you don't like hearing that.
I know you've tried to do everything in the world to stop that, but you're not going to stop it.
It's going to happen.
jake tapper
And where do people like that go to share the big line?
MAGA media.
I wish in my soul, I wish that any of these people had a conscience.
steve bannon
Ask yourself, what is my task and what is my purpose?
If that answer is to save my country, this country will be saved.
unidentified
Waru, here's your host, Stephen K. Bannon.
steve bannon
It's Thursday, 31 July at Year of the Lord 2025, the last day of July before we get to August, the traditional big vacation month for everybody.
We're going to focus today on the three Rs.
That would be recess, rescissions, and redistricting.
We got a lot of work today.
Make sure you go to warrant.org.
You can download all of our content.
It's all totally free.
Also, Bill Blaster, because we're going to need to get to work here.
There's a lot of, as we explain things to you today and give the information, we hope your blood boils and you're going to want to do some work to make sure we can set things right here in the world.
We want to start with redistricting in the great state of Texas.
Anytime Mark Elias' head's blowing up, it's a good thing.
Down in Texas, they finally put the map out.
In Denver, you can go ahead and put the map up.
As you know, we've been hammering this thing for about three or four weeks now.
I want to bring in Attorney General Ken Paxton from the great state of Texas.
Attorney General Paxton, you got a tweeter from a couple days ago about Making sure your office is available to any law enforcement in the state of Texas to make sure that these Democrats can't run away like they've done before, so you don't have a quorum.
This is all they're talking about.
I think Hakeem Jeffries came down yesterday, gave a pep talk to him to make sure that they skedaddled if they have to.
What's the current state of play from your perch as Attorney General, sir?
ken paxton
So we've been through this before.
I was in the Texas House in 2003 when the Democrats left and the House, the House Democrats left, and then later the Senate Democrats.
So we've been through this before.
We know what can happen.
The House rules and the Senate rules both allow for these people to be arrested if they leave and they try to break the quorum.
The challenge is if they go out of state, we lose jurisdiction.
And it's been a challenge in the past, but in the end, as long as the governor is willing to keep calling sessions, ultimately, they have to come home.
steve bannon
Well, when we say that, can't you get the Texas Rangers?
I mean, you got pretty good law enforcement down there.
How are we letting these guys, if they're leaving the state specifically for the purpose of not coming in for their elected duties, can't you stop them from leaving the state?
ken paxton
So the House could do that.
The House would have to have the House of the Senate, and it's probably going to be the House, would have to have, they could have rules in place that require that these Democrats stay now.
In other words, basically lock the doors, which is what happened in 2003.
They locked the doors in the House.
We could not leave.
We were basically, we slept there.
So if you really wanted to protect it, that could be done by the Texas House or the Texas Senate, depending on which one thinks which Democrats are going to leave or both.
steve bannon
What do you recommend?
Because this thing's got to get done.
You get a special session that has, I think, another two weeks and two days left.
I mean, what's your recommendation to Lieutenant Governor Patrick, the governor?
We're going to have Senator Bob Hall on here in a moment.
What's your recommendation to folks?
ken paxton
I mean, that's what I would do.
If I were the Speaker of the House, if I were leading the Senate, I'd put rules in place, depending on which group they think is going to lead, but probably the House.
That's the more likely group to leave the state of Texas.
I'd put rules in place that basically lock us in until we get a vote because the House map is up on Friday.
You could lock them in for the rest of the session, two weeks, and just serve them food there and they sleep there.
And that's just the way it is because we got to get these maps passed.
steve bannon
Well, talk to what do you anticipate as far as legal challenges?
Because this is all the mainstream.
We've been on this for three or four weeks now.
They're going to have legal challenges like crazy.
You're going to have to defend it.
What's your take on this?
ken paxton
And it's just the status quo.
I mean, I've been defending resisting maps since I've been in office.
And so far, we've been successful every time protecting those maps.
No, I'm going to get, we are going to get challenges the way it is, and we will defend them.
And I'm convinced we can be successful.
We've got good maps.
And the legislature has the right to draw the maps they want.
They're politically based, not race-based.
And if they're politically based, then they're defensible.
steve bannon
Attorney General Paxson, your social media and where can people go to keep up with this?
Because obviously the whole nation now is focused on this.
The MSNBC, they've finally woken up and realized they got a real problem down the Great State of Texas.
And I hope Republicans are awakened to what has to happen because this is vitally important.
I know the president's watching closely.
Where can people follow you?
ken paxton
At KenPaxon TX and kenpaxon.com.
steve bannon
Ken Paxon, Attorney General of Gray State, Texas.
Thank you, sir.
Appreciate you coming on.
ken paxton
Thank you.
unidentified
We're going to win this.
steve bannon
Amen.
Your lips to God's ears.
Senator Bob Hall joins us now.
Senator, people tell me when I talked to folks down in Texas, said, Steve, you got to talk to Bob Hall.
He knows what the hell's going on.
He's going to get this done.
So can you please enlighten us now?
Literally, MSNBC last night.
They're in full meltdown after Kakeem Jeffries came down.
Where do we stand with this, Senator?
bob hall
Well, the House has drafted a map, a set of maps for the state.
And what I find interesting is our Democrat friends who, ever since the last redistricting, have been in court arguing that the maps are wrong, that the maps are drawn wrong.
They need to be changed.
And now all of a sudden, when we're in the process of changing them, they have flipped to the other side and saying, huh, the maps are perfect.
We're going to mess them up.
We shouldn't be doing this because they're all correct.
So I'm not sure our folks on the other side of the aisle really know what their argument is.
And it's my understanding.
I'm not on that committee, but my understanding that the federal government had given us bad census data when we drew the maps.
Some of us are questioning it at the time, but said, well, that's what we have to use.
That's the only maps with the data we have.
And so the maps were drawn with the data that was given.
And now we've been given what is said is corrected data that should be used.
And so we're in the process.
And since the federal government really only has control over the districts for the congressmen, the congressional districts, that's what they said need to be redrawn so that they reflect, properly reflect the population from the census.
steve bannon
Can you give us your understanding?
We've had some folks on from the House, but from the Senate side, can you walk people through what your best estimate right now of the process?
These maps are out, review process.
Will they come make, I know they've had witnesses, particularly Democrats last week.
Are they going to come and talk about the demographics?
Are you guys, is the committee going to make a recommendation?
And when do you think this thing will come to a vote?
bob hall
I'm not on that committee, but it's my understanding that Like we do with all bills, the Senate will take a look at it and the Senate will take, will draw their version of interpreting the census data, the population data.
We'll draw their maps.
We'll compare them to the House maps and come to a negotiated agreement on a district-by-district basis, an agreement between the two of us.
That's the way the process works.
And then so that we will either adopt what the House has, if we say that's close enough, or we will send a modified version back to the House and they will either adopt it or modify it.
We'll go to conference and work out the difference between the two and then have a map that both House committees, both the House and Senate committees agree on.
And those who would draw to the floor want the same one in the House and the same one in the Senate and voted on.
And I expect that.
steve bannon
Senator, can you hit?
Can you just hang?
We're going to take a short commercial break.
I want to get more into depth of this, particularly given the timing.
You only got like a couple of weeks, but just hang on for one second.
Senator Bob Hall of the Great State of Texas joins us about the issue that is absorbing people's attention.
Finally, the redistricting of the Great State of Texas.
You're going to see Florida follow suit.
We know that Indiana, they're looking at it, Ohio, Missouri.
This will kick off a season of redistricting.
Also, we're going to talk about rescissions doing budget cuts.
And I told you what the Senate's up to.
They're looking at an omnibus.
Now they're calling it a minibus.
Also, President Trump's recess appointments.
Where are they?
Where's the recess?
Short break.
Back in the warm in just a moment.
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joe lavorgna
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steve bannon
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steve bannon
Okay, welcome back.
We've got Senator Bob Hall from Texas.
By the way, I'm going to throw another R in there for our regime change.
Zelensky's just gone to the Financial Times.
He's calling for it in Russia.
And the Financial Times of London and a bunch of papers have these stories about the MAGA base losing faith in Israel.
I really think it's losing faith in Bibi Netanyahu, so maybe regime change here.
Anyway, we're going to add another R. Caroline Run is going to join us after the Senator Ajo Lavanier, special counsel, senior counselor to the Secretary of Treasurer beyond.
We've got a lot of economic news to talk about.
Senator Mike Lee later, Senator Lee is going to be here about recess appointments.
Senator Bob Hall, Senator, we have, I think, 12 days, a couple days here, two weeks.
Given the process you just walked through, the Senate, you're going to take your time, as you're sure, discern this, do your fiduciary responsibility.
Is there enough time to go through all this and to actually get to a vote before the special session ends in essentially two weeks?
bob hall
Yes, I think there is enough time in it.
I mean, you could go as fast as the Senate just takes up the House map when it comes out of the House formally and accepts it and adopts it.
That could be done.
And I would only expect changes in it if there was something the Senate felt that there was significant, an important difference in the two.
I don't think you're going to see, well, opinions.
I'd like to see this district going this way or that way.
I think we're looking at if this meets the criteria that was established to have these properly drawn and balanced the way they should be, that there's any reason that the Senate would prolong it with arguing different maps.
But if we did, I would expect to be called back in immediately.
I'm talking about, you know, I say immediate the next day or so to finish it up.
If we did get into a squabble over significant redrawing, we'd have another 30 days to work that on.
Because each special session, once it's called, it's for up to 30 days.
steve bannon
So in other words, like some states can only have one special session.
You're saying in Texas, the governor, lieutenant governor's got the bill.
If you can't get it done, the next day they say, hey, be back here next week.
We're going to continue on.
bob hall
That's the governor.
unidentified
Yes.
Oh, yeah.
bob hall
The governor has the authority to call us back, unlimited number of special.
We'd be in special sessions right up until the next session started, if that's what he chose.
A couple sessions back, I almost thought that's what was going to happen because I don't think we got out of here until about December that year with everything that went on.
steve bannon
Sometimes we've been involved in these things, or oftentimes we've been involved in these things in Texas.
And the Democrats, you see them leaving the state hiding.
You know, we just had the attorney general on.
He put out a tweet saying he would be assistance to all law enforcement in the Great State of Texas.
Do you anticipate any shenanigans like that?
I mean, Hakeem Jeffries, I think, came down and gave him a pep talk, said, hey, you got to do what you got to do to stop this because this is the death knell of Hakeem Jeffries being Speaker of the House.
Do you have any thoughts on that about what the Democrats plan to do?
And more importantly, what the Republicans and the governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General prepare to do and law enforcement to stop it.
bob hall
I hope our governor is prepared to do whatever it takes to keep them here.
He and the Speaker, it's not a lieutenant governor really doesn't have a hand in that side of it in there.
But history has shown that they have no qualms in just packing up and leaving in order to disrupt the process if they don't like it.
I heard what our Attorney General Ken Paxon had to say earlier, and that would be just fine.
Lock the doors and bring in the food and keep them here until we get this done.
All we need is a quorum.
We don't need their vote.
We just need them here for a quorum.
unidentified
And so, Senator Hall, you would advocate that if you had to.
steve bannon
Senator Hall, what's your website people go to?
Social media, everything.
People are very focused on this now and want to kind of stay up on it moment by moment.
So where do people go?
bob hall
Senator Bob Hall at.com.
SenatorBobHall.com.
Facebook is Senator Bob Hall.
steve bannon
Sir, thank you very much.
Appreciate you, and we'll be coming back to you.
bob hall
Okay.
Thank you.
Have a blessed day.
steve bannon
Thank you, sir.
So, folks, the redistricting fights start, and of course, now everybody's focused on it.
We got on this early because you know the importance of it.
Governor DeSantis jumped in here.
He thinks he's got five down there: Missouri, Ohio.
I'm hearing maybe Indiana.
You don't know.
And I think a lot of people are going to be looking in the cupboard because Senator Hall, the buried lead there, he's 100% correct.
The census last time was not perfect.
One, it counted illegal aliens, which it should not have done.
Also, there have been massive demographic changes post the pandemic.
And the South and the Southwest is literally on fire when it comes to people shifting there and wanting to live there.
So it's time.
This is why Florida is doing looking at five-district change.
This is why Texas is looking at a five-district change.
I think you can go throughout the South and Southwest.
You'd be surprised.
And I would strongly recommend Deborah Dewitt.
Let's do it.
And I also think we ought to do, I think we ought to do another census right now, a mid-decade census.
The Constitution says you got to do one at least every decade.
Doesn't say you can't do more.
And I think we ought to do more because in California, Illinois, and New York, who are frothing to get something done, they've got constitutional issues related to that.
So it's not quite so easy.
We just got to get on with it.
And you saw Mark Elias.
Mark Elias did give a hat tab.
You know, Steve Stern had hundreds of thousands, I think absolutely millions looking at the stream yesterday.
All you folks that are the vanguard of the precinct strategy and the vanguard of election integrity, your work is paying off.
I know sometimes it seems like you guys don't get the hat tips and you don't get the accolades, but it was not for you.
And particularly the boys like Matt Matt Meck and all these people that come to all these conferences.
I spoke in one Matt and the team had in Vegas a couple of weeks ago by video.
And it's just the work you guys put in, the effort you put in is paying off.
And Mark Elias, who's the greatest enemy of MAGA, he gave you a big shout out on MSNBC, say, hey, these guys are winning all over the country because of the work.
And that's why we get these redistricting done.
Caroline Wren joins us.
Caroline, we got the three R's.
You got, you know, you got redistricting, you got the rescissions, and you got recess.
Why is the Senate?
It seems that why are we having the Senate leave town when, and you were there last night.
In fact, I'd like you to say a few words, had a great event put on by Mike Davis in Article 3 over at Raheem Kassam's Butterworth for Emil Bovey.
You had Judge Janine there.
It was just absolutely incredible, but it shows you the power of what happens when we start getting President Trump's team in.
You know, Joe Kent got confirmed yesterday, but these are onesies Tuesdays.
I mean, we've got a couple of judges, I think, four or five judges now.
You've got, I think she's the first U.S. attorney to actually be, to actually be confirmed.
Segal Chata and some of the other contributors to the war room have gotten in because of this acting basis.
Of course, they're trying to throw Aline Chabab out.
Tell me about the event last night and how important it is to actually get our arms around this vast government to get these confirmations done, ma'am.
caroline wren
Yeah, the event last night was wonderful.
It was put on by Mike Davis, the Article 3 project.
And so it was to celebrate now Judge Emil Bove being able to get in.
What I found pretty special about it is Mike Davis gave some words and the judge gave some words.
And the judge said, which is absolutely true, when you go through confirmation processes like this, it can feel so lonely.
They were throwing everything at this guy to keep him out.
I mean, attacking him, his personalized family.
And it was really, it was Article 3 Project, Mike Davis, the War Room posse that were so loud in his corner.
And he talked about this.
He said, look, I would go home and just be so down.
I'd look on the internet.
I had this army behind me online of people I don't even know who were supporting me.
And that is the power of this war room and what we need to be doing and focusing on because we have a problem.
There are certain senators.
You had Tom Tillis saying, what was it, like a week or two ago, saying, I'm going to be, I'm going to stand up against President Trump and his nominee so much harder than even Mitt Romney did.
And these are the type of people and Bill Cassie and others that are blocking some of these great Trump nominees who are immensely qualified.
You just have these career bureaucrat politicians who just hate MAGA, they hate the movement, and they're Republicans in name only who just want to block these folks from coming in.
And so frankly, you have 144 nominees now pending.
This is outrageous.
And the Senate should not have a recess without triggering President Trump's recess appointment authority.
So either stay in session in August and do your damn job or let President Trump make recess appointments to fail his team because he needs his team in there.
President Trump has had the most successful first six months that has ever existed in presidential history.
Can you imagine if he had his full team operating and in there, what could get done?
That is why they want to block these folks from coming in.
And that is why President Trump and John Thude and Mike Johnson should steamroll this and get these folks through and stay in in August and get it done.
steve bannon
So we have Senator Lee's going to come on and he's got this idea.
He's put up, I call the Lee Plan is saying, hey, there's 149 guys to go.
We stay in and here's the program and how we have to do it.
Semaphore has up today, Ben Smith Semaphore has an exclusive story, I think, saying, hey, Thune's got an idea.
They're going to do some changes because right now everything's being filibustered.
They're going to the absolute maximum time.
So he's got a solution to do some structural changes of that so they don't have so much time.
But that's not going to kick in.
They're going to go in recess.
All of September, and I'm going to get to this in a moment with you.
All of September is going to be spending, folks.
That's where we got the worm ahead of it.
And you can tell already, we smoked him out on this.
We smoked him out on the omnibus.
Now they're talking about a minibus.
So they're not going to be able to get to any kind of confirmations.
There'll be in October where they'll be making these marginal changes.
Trump will be the end of the year and won't have his team.
It's just simply, simply, simply not acceptable.
Caroline Ren's going to hang around.
Joe Lavarnier from Treasury.
We're going to talk some economics of what's really going on.
Also, I think there's some big breaking news.
John Salman put it up in the Tulsi Gabber treasonous conspiracy, which is everything.
We got to stick to landing.
Make sure you take out your phone, text Bannon, B-A-N-N-O-N, at 98-9898.
Get the ultimate guide, an ultimate guide that happens to be free for investing in gold and precious metals in the age of Trump.
Back in a moment.
stephanie ruhle
Do you have any issues with this White House taking the power of the purse away from Congress?
Do you worry that what's happening right now is sort of making Congress a rubber stamp and careful how I say this, but a lesser branch of government?
rand paul
You know, I think for a long time, Congress has been abdicating their power of the purse.
In fact, what happens almost every year is there are no appropriation bills, and there's one big bill.
And really, most rank-and-file people have nothing to do with it.
Even the appropriation committees had very little to do with it.
And one person, the leader of the majority and the leader of the minority, work out the details.
And if you're a special interest and you want one specific tax break, you don't bother talking to any rank and file congressman to tell them the pros and cons of this.
You go to one person.
And that's why the leaders in both parties raise millions and millions of dollars because both corporate and labor interests only go to the top of the party, only go to the leadership.
And the whole, you know, having the power of the purse and the adjudication of what we spend doesn't really happen because the process is so broken.
We rarely have budgets.
We really have an appropriations bill.
It's what I've been telling people since the first big, beautiful bill of the summer is that we're going to get another big, beautiful omnibus come the end of September.
And that's what normally happens.
Some enormous bill nobody can read, put out without a couple hours to look at it.
That's what will happen September 30th because the system's so broken, people haven't woken up enough to really change it.
steve bannon
Okay, welcome back.
I want to thank Birch Gold for sponsoring us.
Go to birchgold.com/slash bannon.
End of the dollar empire, seven free installments.
And of course, we're working on installment eight and nine, both free.
We'll have them out shortly.
Of course, you saw yesterday President Trump drop the hammer in Brazil.
Now, that was about Bolsonaro and also shutting down free speech and social media sites, et cetera.
But some of that is about Lula in his interview in the New York Times and Smat talking about the bricks and the de-dollarization and all that.
So make sure you get up to speed on it.
You do that by all the free content we've put over the last four years on Birch Gold.
Right there, I told you this was happening.
Rand Paul let the cat out of the bag the other night on Stephanie Rule.
They're going to come in and they're going to hold President Trump's government hostage.
They'll say at midnight on the 30th with no funding package, it's going to shut down.
And instead of just doing a CR and playing the game, boy, let's just kick it down to Christmas and then we'll deal with it before Christmas.
And then we'll get the big omnibus.
They're just going to get up in your face in the third week of September with an omnibus and you're going to have to suck on it, right?
It's going to have all the debauchery that these things have in there.
And plus, you're going to see a lot of, you're going to see a lot of the AI and all the stuff we've been fighting.
It's all going to be tucked in there in 9,000 pages.
It's coming, folks.
It's coming.
I'm going to get back to Caroline Ren's going to join us.
We did redistricting.
We're doing the recess appointments.
We're going to get to her about rescissions.
We haven't seen our rescissions packages, our pocket rescissions.
But I got Joe Lavornier here.
And we got to take care of some other business first.
And Joe, that would be, well, first off, Joe, last night on CNN and MSNBC and all day, all they did was dump on the 3% growth.
As you know, we had you on here and we said, hey, the supply side cut, we get to 3%, we can get higher, 3.4%, 3.5%, we grow our way out of here.
They're saying last night, oh, this is kind of a phony number.
There's all kinds of storm clouds on the horizon underneath it.
Your thoughts about that, sir?
Thought about the 3% growth, what it really stands for.
How strong was that print, in your opinion, sir?
joe lavorgna
It was a good number, Steve.
I mean, the first quarter was weak.
I would not be surprised if the first quarter is revived substantially higher.
It's happened in six out of the last nine years.
We've had substantial upper revisions to GDP.
What we know is we've got very good income growth because the labor market's healthy.
We had a very firm reading today in the Q2 employment cost index.
So if you have good jobs and good incomes, then clearly you've got good GDP.
It's the other side of the same coin.
So the numbers are good.
And people obviously trying to talk it away because they don't want to give the president any credit.
steve bannon
Look, what I love most was private growth more than public growth.
I mean, it shows the plan.
This shows the plan that you're trying to get your arms around spending, get the government out of everywhere.
Because every print, all this growth that Biden had, we used to do this all the time with EJ Antonio.
Every time we would back out the government number, and we were in a recession.
The private growth was negative.
What I'd like most was the private growth yesterday.
What do you got to say about that?
joe lavorgna
Yeah, no, that's right.
And there's an adjustment period.
I mean, you had, as Secretary Bess at Steve, has highlighted many times.
I mean, we got the economy that looked like it was at full employment with a deficit to GDP that was nearly 7%, which you've never had during peacetime or not in a recessionary period.
So there's clearly an adjustment.
The great news is that the one big, beautiful bill is passed.
We've got the CapEx comeback.
Inflation is moving lower.
So real wages are expanding, especially for blue-collar workers.
And the outlook is very bright.
And the pace of layoffs, which is low, is falling even further.
If you look at the most recent jobless claims, they've now moved down to recent lows.
That bodes well for a much bigger pickup in second half hiring, which is Consistent with what happens when you have the capex story, the hiring then follows.
So you could poo-poo the Q2 GDP numbers all you want, but you're going to be disappointed.
It was a good number.
And the best thing is growth is going to broaden out going forward, and we're going to look at a boom.
steve bannon
Yeah, and this gets us to, if this is a predicate, it gets us to a 3.4, 3.5, and then even higher.
So this is a great print.
I want to make sure, you know, the other thing they're doing is saying, hey, President Trump's a real estate developer.
Real estate developers always love easy money.
They love cheap money.
So when he's sitting there banging on Powell and wanting a big rate cut, a couple hundred basis points, that's just from his, that's his natural reaction because he's a real estate developer and they always want lower rates because it's much easier to finance their projects.
But they missed the point.
President Trump understands the Fed.
He understands interest rates, the structure of them.
There's actually a very compelling argument to be made about what we call natural rates versus what should happen right now.
Can you walk through, because we had Fishback on the other day, he's of the same school of thought we are, that there's a big miss here on the modeling.
Can you walk people through what this concept of how they model it, what are natural rates, and what's the logical, where should rates really be today?
joe lavorgna
Steve, the president has great instincts, and you could make a very compelling, in fact, the strongest case for why rates should fall, which the president instinctively knows.
And that is the Federal Reserve makes an estimate of what it thinks the neutral rate is or the real rate or R-Star, all these fancy terms.
Essentially, are rates helping keep the economy, are they pushing the economy down or are they pulling the economy up?
By the Fed's own estimates, and there's a range of estimates, the full range of estimates all show that the current level of interest rates that the Fed sets is too high, meaning that the Fed's current rate structure is actually impeding growth.
So as good as the economy is and as nice as that rebound in Q2 was and as optimistic as we are for the second half of the year, we could do even better if rates weren't so high.
That's by the Fed's own admission.
Rates have been high for three years.
The markets are saying the exact same thing.
If you look at where interest rates are, long-term treasury yields are trading below the Fed funds rate.
It's happened for three years in a row.
That has never happened before.
So it's not just the Fed's internal models which are saying rates are too high.
Bond investors themselves are saying rates are too high.
If you lower rates, mortgage rates will fall.
That will improve housing affordability.
It will help first-time homebuyers, which have really struggled to buy homes.
And those parts of the economy which could do better, like housing, which are weak, would certainly flourish.
So President Trump's instincts and understanding of the problem are very accurate.
steve bannon
And I take it the range of the natural rates of what, 2.5% to 3.9%, right?
I think it is.
And you're saying the argument the Trump administration, you guys are saying you believe you should have at least 100 basis point cut.
Even the 25 they're talking about in September, you don't think gets to solve the problems.
You guys are much more aggressive about this because you think the data shows you that, right?
joe lavorgna
Well, Steve, here's what you could say.
I mean, so you're 50 basis points.
You're half a percent above the highest estimate on the FOM state.
Those are the real inflation hawks.
The median estimates are around 3%.
So you're almost 150 basis points right now above neutral.
So you can understand why the president says rates should fall significantly further.
But here's the other point, Steve, which is very important.
If you look at the Fed's own forecast of inflation, they went up from March to June.
Their official inflation forecast went up when over that time, headline inflation actually fell.
So their estimates went up as inflation dropped a bit.
So if they're data dependent, you look at the numbers, you look at what the markets are saying, their own estimates, and you can make the strongest case, which is pretty obvious, why interest rates are supposed to fall, which is why two governors dissented for the first time in over 30 years.
steve bannon
No, it's pretty extraordinary.
Those who normally have unanimity.
I had two outliers who kind of made the case.
Jackson Hole is coming up.
Will the Secretary of Treasury go out?
Will he address the Fed's, I think the Fed has a two or three day Jackson Hole conference.
Will the Secretary of Treasury go out and address the central bankers and big hedge fund managers out there?
joe lavorgna
Yeah, I don't believe that the Secretary is going to Jackson Hole this year, but the Fed will discuss the outlook.
And the markets typically look for the Fed church to tell us something about what the Fed thinks will happen at the September meeting.
The bond market right now is sort of iffy on whether the Fed will cut rates in September.
And that's because of what Jay Powell said yesterday.
But again, Steve, you can make a very strong argument, an intellectual argument, an academic argument, if you will, why interest rates are much too high.
steve bannon
Do you think that he's now being, this is purely political, that this is because of the disagreements he has with President Trump and particularly about not just the running of the Fed, but also the cost overruns with what we call the Versailles on Constitution Avenue?
Do you think it's just he's just being honoring?
Is this not going to, when all the evidence points to logically, you should have a rate cut, that he's just not doing it because of personality and politics?
joe lavorgna
Steve, the tariff is the Secretary has argued that if there is a tariff impact, it is a one-off price level adjustment.
There are a couple of series that might suggest there's some tariff effect, very minimal.
The point is that overall, the data the last five months have been essentially better.
All the data have almost been better than expected, whether it's the consumer price index, import prices, producer prices, the consumer, the personal consumption expenditure, deflator, all these different metrics all have been better than expected.
We still haven't seen it in aggregate any tariff effect.
So I'll leave it there.
But the data certainly say there's not an effect.
So I'm not sure what people are waiting for.
steve bannon
Joe, where do people keep up with you on social media?
joe lavorgna
At LaVorne Unomics, Steve, at LaVorne Anomics.
Thank you.
steve bannon
Thank you, brother.
Very clear.
Incredible good news out of that.
Remember, we kept harping about, hey, the supply-side cut.
And look, we weren't, there were parts of the Big Beautiful bill we were not fans of, right?
Particularly, we strongly recommended there should be a tax increase for the wealthy.
There's many other spending things we're not happy with.
But we said you have, like Scott said on this show for two years before he became Secretary of Treasury.
It was very simple.
He said you're going to have one shot, your last shot to do a supply-side cut.
That means to focus tax cuts on production, on capital, on capital formation, that you can actually turn America back into a manufacturing superpower, right?
A manufacturing hegemon.
And we said, hey, to even have a chance to try to grow your way out of this, which is a long shot.
You've got to get to 3.5% growth or higher.
The first way you do that is kind of get to the 2.8 to 3% that President Trump had an average of 2.8% in his first term.
It went to 3.4% in 2019, the fourth quarter, before the bioweapon of the Chinese Communist Party was dropped on our head.
And you have to get there.
And that's why the print yesterday, I think, was an incredibly solid print.
And the left-wing haters are in meltdown.
This is why you can't compromise with these people.
Nothing you can do is nothing you can do is they're going to agree with.
Are they going to support you?
They hate President Trump.
They hate MAGA.
They hate the country.
This is why we're going to pick it up with Caroline Ren after the break, rescissions.
We got to get these cuts.
Remember, the big, beautiful bill was passed because of assurances we're going to have rescissions, pocket recisions, impoundments.
You've got to cut because the Senate's playing games.
Just like they're not giving President Trump his team, and it's obvious they're not giving his team.
They're also not going to do any cuts.
In fact, they're going to come in with more spending in September.
Short break.
Back in a moment.
unidentified
We rejoice with the no more.
Let's take down the CCP.
War.
Here's your host, Stephen K. Matt.
steve bannon
Okay, we're going to get to spending in a second.
They've coordinated a declassification.
Okay, just hit part of it.
As we've been telling you, John Solomon's been telling you, and he had a great piece up on Justin News, and I got it up on Getter.
This is why, if you want to keep up, the show is a 24-hour process, right?
We're on for two hours in the morning, two hours in the afternoon, that's Sevoros.
But we're putting the show together.
We're talking to people about what's going on.
I'm continually getting information and putting up, you know, putting up articles and things that I think you ought to read.
Even a lot of time, I go to the most progressive or liberal, The Guardian, and others, so you can see kind of the counter-narrative because this is all narrative warfare, right?
John Solomon gives us stuff all day long.
So this is why Getter is totally free and it's super easy.
Like I said, I'm an idiot in this regard.
I can really use Getter Well every now and again.
Grace or Mo or Elizabeth has to help me out, but they've taken the training wheels off.
My point is, you can keep up 24-7.
I put up something with John Solomon of Justin News earlier this morning about this.
So let's have a partner's discussion about this.
We have to stick the landing on the Tulsi Gabbard treasonous conspiracy event, right?
We know that.
This is about how you take down the deep state.
And if all the great stuff that we're doing, if we haven't taken apart the deep state by the time President Trump's terms end, then we will have absolutely failed in our effort to make America great again.
We will be, you know, 90% of the way there economically and all the great stuff President Trump's doing securing the border and deportation.
But a lot of that can be unwound when President Trump leaves.
And this is why we've got to take the deep state on now and crush it.
That's what this entire thing is about.
And I'm a big advocate, either through the grand jury process, a special counsel, however they want to give it to a U.S. attorney.
Somehow, justice has got to get a team to do this.
Now, they said they put together a strike force because it's so complicated and they're so busy.
I mean, you know, and they've only got a handful of people over there.
And they're fighting, I think, still 175 court cases on the Democrats and these radical judges trying to suppress President Trump's Article II powers because to delay is to deny.
And they're running the clock out.
You can tell that.
And so that's why you need special people on it.
Now, we do know that there are some very focused individuals and very focused legal proceedings that are going on right now that are pretty advanced.
And I think you're going to see the fruits of those very shortly.
Now, one of the big things, and this kind of drives you crazy, of why we didn't demand it in the first term.
And this is the whole Durham report in the Durham reports classified, and it's supposed to be highly classified.
Appendix.
Senator Grassley is now starting, I think it's starting to get bled out.
So Caroline Ren this morning.
And already, as part of this, you're seeing Fox News has got up.
Sorry, alleged ties to Russia Gate exposed and declassified Annex of Durham Report.
Subheadline is CIA Director John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Cash Patel coordinated in the declassification of Annex as Grassley makes it public.
You know, it begs the question, why didn't we do it last time?
But hey, that's a conversation for a different day.
It's out now, and it's pretty explosive.
And it shows you the highly coordinated effort.
You're pretty unique, Caroline.
I think that you keep your hand on, you talk to grassroots leaders every day, the MAGA leaders of what they're working on, what they need for funding, how it's going with them.
You're also very close, obviously, with the donors.
Walk me through the importance of keeping people with the program by sticking the landing on this Tulsi Gabbard situation and in that process, getting some resolution to the Epstein situation, ma'am.
caroline wren
Well, this was an interesting thing that just came out now because the last time I was on your show, I kind of said Tulsi Gabbard just, you know, did what Durham never could do over, you know, the course of that two-year investigation.
Tulsi put it all out in a day.
You kind of defended Durham and said, oh, well, we didn't defend it.
You said, wait a minute.
They didn't fully put out what his report was.
Well, that is what just came out today, I think.
Now I've gotten to read all of it, but my understanding is that they finally fully declassified a lot of the things that Durham did work on and put it out in the public.
But it does beg the question of like, why didn't they do this originally?
And so I'm so glad this is why appointments matter.
Your cabinet matters.
And so Mike Pompeo and others wanted to block this for forever.
So cheers to John Ratcliffe and truly Tulsi Gabbard, who has been in the driver's seat on this, saying, No, no, no, I'm not going to stop until you declassify and put this out and show some transparency.
So I want to pour through all of this.
It seems to be what we have always put together and known, which is that, you know, this entire Russia hoax started between Obama and the Clinton campaign, colluding to try and take down Donald Trump and to destroy his presidency.
But the people in the public deserve and need to know the weaponization that our own government did against a duly elected president.
And so, again, I'm so thrilled right now with Tulsi Gabbard.
I applaud Cash Patel for working on this as well.
This is the cabinet that we push so hard for, and this is the transparency that we want to see.
steve bannon
How important is that?
You know, we're fighting this redistricting right now.
And, you know, we're fighting for five seats in Texas.
We're fighting for five in Florida and a couple more.
I think you can get up to 14 or 15 seats.
But even when you get the redistricting, you still need the hardest core of the hardcore, the people that do the canvassing, the people that back Scott Pressler, the people who do the precinct strategy, the vanguard of the movement are the ones that do the most work, right?
And it's laborious.
They don't get paid.
They're volunteer.
They do it for the spirit of the country.
You've got to keep those people motivated.
If they get cynical, if they get apathetic, if they just say, if 10% of those people say it's too much and I haven't seen anything, it's all talk, you're finished.
Give me a minute on that before you go to break, ma'am.
caroline wren
I would be remiss right now not to mention the fact that I would like to see a little bit of a harder fight.
You're talking about the base and people have worked on this.
Tina Peters is still sitting in a prison cell right now.
Tyler Boyer is still under indictment in Arizona.
We still have these electors under indictment, bleeding out money, getting chased down in Arizona, Michigan.
Fannie Willis, by the way, the Georgia case has not gone away.
We still have these Georgia electors.
I'm talking to some of these folks.
They're getting buried in legal bills.
We, as a party, we as a MAGA movement, we need to do more to go help those people, help with their legal bills, and tell Trump should stop the funding to any of them.
I mean, use every single tool in the book.
We cannot leave these people to be hung to dry out there right now.
And so I just, I want to reiterate that.
unidentified
I want to do more with you, Steve, to come up with a plan.
steve bannon
Well, the state of Georgia, so you got all kinds of ways that you can do this.
And I think it's a federal, it's part of it.
It's a federal, you got state, you got federal.
It could be all dropped immediately, particularly these charges.
And Tina Peters, she's still rotting in a prison.
Anyway, you stick around.
I want to finish with this rescissions and spending.
So hang on.
We're going to get ready for the second hour of the war room.
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