Peter Ward, a University of Washington professor and NASA Astrobiology Institute lead, reveals the Southern Ocean’s CO2 saturation—accelerating warming decades ahead of projections—while linking past mass extinctions to greenhouse gas spikes, like the Permian event tied to 1,000 ppm CO2. He warns of 3-foot sea level rises by 2050, devastating deltas and cities like New York, and dismisses skeptic claims, noting industrial CO2 aligns with Arctic coral reefs and glacial records. Callers question motives, citing the Iron Mountain report’s alleged one-world government agenda, but Ward insists science—not politics—drives risks, from anoxic ocean dead zones to potential methane releases. The conversation underscores humanity’s unsustainable trajectory unless drastic global coordination emerges, with climate change acting as a silent harbinger of collapse. [Automatically generated summary]
From the high desert in the great American Southwest, I bid you all good evening, good morning, good afternoon, wherever you may be in the world's prolific time zones, each and everyone covered by this program, Coast to Coast AM, the very largest program of its sort in the world.
I'm Art Bell.
Great to be with you, an honor and a privilege to be escorting you through the weekend.
The webcam photograph is a nondescript photograph taken of me about an hour ago or so.
And we're on Asia Watch, of course.
Asia is due June 1st by C-section.
And not that there's any hint of it, so not to worry you unduly, but, you know, should I have to leave the program early, you'll know why.
Now, a couple of things I want to cover before I get into the world news, the ever-depressing world news.
There's been a big controversy about the picture Chad took, Chad's photograph, and I looked at that very carefully.
It's unlike most UFO photographs.
It's extremely clear, extremely detailed.
And, you know, I've wondered a lot about it.
What could it be?
It looked, to me, it looked oddly terrestrial in a way, and not enough to be extraterrestrial.
Beyond that, I'm not prepared to make any judgments.
However, I did get an interesting fast blast just before the program tonight from Stanley in Iver, Virginia.
I guess it is, IVOR, Ivor, Virginia.
And Stanley says, all right, I can prove the Chad UFO pictures are fake.
Now, I don't know if this proves it or not, but he goes on, just download the photo and then in quotes, open with, that's the option when you right-click, I think, open with notepad, and you can clearly see the word Adobe written all in the code, within all the code.
And he gave his phone number, and I called it.
I didn't have enough time to try it myself before the program, but I know that we're just packed with computer geniuses out there who will quickly try this and let me know what they find.
So just thought I'd toss that out and see.
You know, and the fact that Adobe was involved at some point doesn't necessarily make it fake.
However, if the claim is that it was taken with film and then scanned and put directly up, then I guess it would be a problem, if true.
So some of you out there, most of you, I would guess who have computers, give it a shot, see what happens.
Now, turning to the never-to-disappoint depressing news, and it is U.S. deaths, the headline, near grim Memorial Day mark, Americans have opened nearly 1,000 new graves to bury U.S. troops killed in Iraq since Memorial Day a year ago.
The figure is telling and expected to rise in coming months.
In the period from Memorial Day 2006 through Saturday, 980 soldiers and Marines died in Iraq compared to 807 deaths the previous year.
And with the Baghdad security operation now three and a half months old, even President Bush, of course, is predicting a very difficult summer for U.S. forces.
Anybody with brainstorms on this war, don't be afraid to pick up the phone.
Iraq's prime minister and two top American officials flew to the blistering Western Desert Saturday in a rare joint outing to highlight gains there in the fight against insurgents hours before the military reported the deaths of eight more U.S. troops.
One of those killed a Marine died in combat in Anbar Province, once the site of some of the fiercest, fiercest fighting rather, in the country, and where the U.S. Ambassador, the American commander in Iraq, and the Iraqi leader traveled on Saturday.
For nearly a decade, Dr. Jack Kvorkian waged an incredibly defiant campaign to help other people kill themselves.
The retired pathologist left bodies at hospital emergency rooms, motels, videotaped a death that was broadcast on CBS 60 Minutes.
His actions prompted battles over assisted suicide in many, many states.
Standing in the baking sun outside the U.S. Consulate in Monterey, hundreds of Mexicans wait anxiously for temporary work visas.
But even before they were fingerprinted and interviewed for the permit, many had already paid recruiters thousands of dollars in hopes of easing the way, supplying the U.S. guest worker program as a complex and sometimes criminal network of foreign recruiters who extort lots of money from poor migrants, then keep them on the job by forcing them into debt and threatening their families back home.
Ukraine's feuding president and prime minister agreed early Sunday to hold an early parliamentary election September 30th, thus disfusing a months-long political crisis that had been threatening to escalate into violence.
We found a decision which is a compromise, according to the president, and he was quoted as saying that by the Interfax News Agency after emerging from eight hours of tense talks.
Now, now we can say the political crisis in Ukraine is over.
Lindsay Lohan arrested.
Suspicion of driving under the influence Saturday after her convertible struck a curb, and investigators found what they believe is cocaine at the scene.
According to police, Lohan 20 and two other people were in her 2005 Mercedes SL65 when it crashed on Sunset Boulevard around 5.20 a.m.
Sergeant Mike Foxen said it appeared Lohan was speeding.
Well, everyone seems to have a suggestion to get two wayward whales lingering in the Sacramento River to swim 70 miles back to the Pacific.
One person suggesting towing, towing the orcas.
That'd be interesting.
I've been seeing it on the news all week long, and no matter what they try, the whales don't seem to want to go.
Just one more item before the break.
Rescuers suspended their search Saturday for a man now presumed to be the sixth person killed by rising waters in central Texas.
Forecasters warned the recurring rain could cause more flooding across the plains.
Forecasters issued flood warnings, said the storms have dumped more than get this 10 inches of rain in some areas.
Probably, they say it will continue through at least Sunday.
Roadways washed out.
Some intersections remaining closed Saturday after two days of rain pounded central Texas.
Governor Rick Berry activated the National Guard troops to be deployed in Waco, Austin, and San Antonio for the holiday weekend.
Dozens of people were plucked from rising waters on Friday.
So trouble in Texas.
Big trouble.
All right, in a moment, we'll look at a couple of other stories.
Well, there's climate news.
The U.S. has rejected any prospect of a deal on climate change at the G8 summit in Germany next month.
This is according to a leaked document.
It had to be leaked for us to get it.
Despite Tony Blair's declaration on Thursday that Washington would sign up to at least the beginnings of action to cut carbon emissions, a note attached to a draft document circulated by Germany says, U.S. is fundamentally opposed to the proposals, period.
The note, written in red ink, says the deal runs, quote, counter to our overall position and crosses multiple red lines in terms of what we simply cannot agree to.
This document called final, but we never agreed to any of the climate language present in the document.
We have tried to tread lightly, but there's only so far we can go given our fundamental opposition to the German position, it says.
The tone is blunt, with whole pages of the draft crossed out, and even the mildest statements about confirming previous agreements rejected.
The proposals within the sections titled Fighting Climate Change and Carbon Markets are fundamentally incompatible with the President's approach to climate change.
It doesn't describe the President's approach.
This is a very interesting story, and for those of you who want to know where it comes from, it's CNN.com.
Reuters, the southern ocean around Antarctica is so loaded now with carbon dioxide that it can barely absorb any more.
So more of the gas will stay in the atmosphere to warm up the planet.
Human activity, the main culprit, said researcher Connie LaRue, LaQ, I guess it is, who called the finding very alarming.
The phenomena was not expected to be apparent for a decade, she said in a telephone interview from the University of East Anglia in Britain.
We thought we'd be able to detect only the second half, detect all of this in the second half of the century, say around 2050 or so, she said.
But data from 1981 through 2004 show the sink is already full of carbon dioxide, so I find this really quite alarming.
The southern ocean is one of the world's biggest reservoirs of carbon, known as a carbon sink.
When carbon is in a sink, whether it's in the ocean or a forest, both of which can lock up carbon dioxide, it stays out of the atmosphere and does not contribute to global warming.
The new research published in the latest section of the journal Science indicates the Southern Ocean has been saturated with carbon dioxide since at least the 1980s.
This is significant because the Southern Ocean accounts for about 15% of the total global carbon sink.
Increased winds over the last half century are to blame for the change, she said.
These winds blend the carbon dioxide through the southern ocean, mixing the naturally occurring carbon that usually stays deep down within with human-caused carbon.
And I suppose one would have to be concerned that somehow something would release all of this carbon dioxide all of a sudden, whether it be in an ocean or locked in ice or wherever it would be, suddenly adding to the amount of global warming we've already got going on.
All right.
First hour, we promise unscreened open lines, so here they come.
Couple of things to remember.
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Number two, if at all possible, have something compelling to say for, you know, the whole audience.
It's a big audience out there, so rather than, you know, keep it at a personal level of some kind or with some question that might be better answered in email, if you've got something that would interest everybody, then we are interested in you.
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Even if they're very advanced, you would be quite surprised what a good scientist can do.
If you have the actual machinery to do, and I'm not saying that we've actually reverse engineered anything, but if you have the machinery in front of you, then reverse engineering is a whole lot easier than inventing.
In other words, you can say to yourself, what does this do?
Well, let's take this apart and see how it does it.
That's kind of reverse engineering, going slowly and figuring out how somebody did something much easier than reinventing the wheel, so to speak.
Can you imagine having visions, seeing things that would be ahead for the world, and living in a society that would string you up, burn you at the stake, or otherwise dispose of you if you wrote about them in a language that could be easily understood?
So you had to reduce it to kind of a poetic, slightly foggy text that would be understood much later.
They probably got something to do with it, but I don't think you could pin a big pin on China and say, let's go about it.
unidentified
It's not clear.
It's not evident at this point, but I think down the road in the long run, you know, the Middle East does provide a large share of petroleum for the...
How would I end it?
That's right.
Well, you all had a guest on named Lev Navrosov a couple years ago.
I'm going to hold you through the break because that's what I really want to hear from anybody who has a good idea how we get out of there with our skins.
I'm Art Bell.
It is.
I am, and it's my pleasure to be here.
When I said with our skins intact, I guess I meant our national honor.
We really aren't going to get out of there with our skins intact.
In fact, thousands of them have already been taken.
So it's I've sat and I've thought about this war and thought about it and thought about it.
And there's got to be a way to win it and be done or get out and just conclude it was a bad idea to begin with.
I'm not sure.
Anyway, we'll get back to our caller in a moment.
Just very briefly on the Chad photo.
Yeah, I know the fact that appears there doesn't automatically mean that it's a fake at all.
It's a very, very interesting photograph.
My only comment on it would be, and it certainly is clear, that it looks more terrestrial than it does extra-terrestrial.
But you've got to admit, boy, they're good photographs.
I guess people have been able to duplicate it.
The problem is we're in the day and age when you can duplicate anything, when there's virtually no way to ensure that a photograph is the real McCoy anymore.
I don't care what it is.
Even photographs of little green guys and little gray guys and all the rest of it and craft, I'm afraid we've entered an age where, well, they used to be Polaroids, right?
And you could almost bank on a Polaroid being real.
That day is now gone.
All right, let's bring back our first time caller line and say you've had a few minutes to think it over.
How would you end this?
How would you, what kind of exit strategy at this point would you come up with?
unidentified
Wow, Art, that really leaves one at a loss.
And yes, I have had some time to think it over.
As to whether we could end this gracefully, as you were asking, I really am at a loss for that.
It seems to me that the best thing is to contemplate is what is the worst case scenario consequence if and when we do leave?
Because obviously that region of the world is essential.
It supplies a fair enough share of petroleum to the rest of the world that if it were to fall into disarray, that it would have lasting geopolitical consequences.
And I think that's why I've said in the past, you know, we're there, right or wrong, and I guess wrong based on the information that got us there.
That was all wrong.
But we are there.
And about the best argument you can make for continuing in any way at all is that we're probably killing people who, given enough time, would figure out a way to come to the United States and kill as many of us as they could.
And I looked at it on the night vision binoculars while my friend Jim and my girlfriend were looking at it to the naked eye.
And it was truly going faster than Mach 4.
It started out really slow and it just started accelerating faster and faster and faster and disappeared from their sight.
And I saw it on the night vision as faint as the faintest stars you can see on night vision, which means when you look at night vision, you see stars that the human eye can't see even on a clear night.
So it's way out there.
This thing was moving so fast, not a single flash.
So definitely no FAA lights on it.
And, you know, I've seen those pictures you're talking about.
And I wanted to let you know, Art, that I spoke to you on the show you did right after 9-11.
And I was calling from Western Pennsylvania.
And I said that before we would take any action against any nation, we had better analyze what has happened and do a thorough investigation.
And I did warn against any activity against Afghanistan or Iraq, having been a student of foreign policy and diplomacy for the last 35 years.
But I wanted to say this, Art, that a solution that I see would be for the U.S. to declare a victory in the sense that Saddam Hussein has been deposed, a new regime has been put in, quote-unquote, democratically, although I may disagree with the interpretation of that word democratic.
And then I think we should really bring our troops out and do a thorough investigation regarding the malfeasance with the non-competitive bidding and the expense of the war.
And I think that would allow America to attempt to salvage its image.
And America has been deeply wounded by this police action in Iran.
What about the bases that we have established in Iraq?
Would they remain?
In other words, part of the bloodletting that Americans have done is to establish bases in Iraq, to have a geopolitical and military base in that part of the world.
Well, I think what's going to happen, Art, is this.
Since the current regime in Iraq has stated that it wants the U.S. out, I think basically what will happen is that there will have to be a sort of an independent party such as maybe the European Union or maybe China that will come in on invitation from the Iraqi government.
And I think basically what has to happen is Iraq has to be responsible for their oil.
And if they choose to have their own oil market using the Euro as opposed to the U.S. petrodollar, they have that right.
And I think what has to occur is this.
The Iraqis have to be able to, in a sense, control their destiny.
And they're going to have to have the complete authority to make any trade agreements or oil contract agreements with any nations in the world, not having the U.S. sort of usurp that power as has been going on for the past three years.
Somebody certainly should be carrying on what Terrence, An amazing, an amazing individual who was just absolutely brilliant despite all of the experimentation that he did.
He was nothing short of brilliant.
What a loss.
So somebody out there must be continuing his work.
It was, I live right on Long Island, right by the beach.
And one night, a Friday night, it was a boat came ashore, a big tanker, and there was a lot of action going on by the beach trying to get the tanker to go back in.
And it was stuck on the sand for about almost two days, I think.
In the middle, I was watching the sky, and I saw a green light suspended.
It didn't look like a star because it was too bright, on top of the water.
It looked like maybe it was about a few miles offshore.
And I was just staring at it, and suddenly it just dropped, and it fell straight down into the water.
And it couldn't have been a plane or anything because there was no flashing.
It didn't flash or anything.
It was just a bright green light that was suspended in the air, and then it just let go and fell straight down.
It's supposed to be the new Area 51, and there's a couple local airspaces that are associated with that airfield that go from surface to infinity, flight level 580.
I think what they're talking about, that system that they can launch anywhere in the world in 15 minutes, I believe that's what they're developing there.
Because the airspace associated with that airfield goes from the surface to flight level 580, 58,000 feet.
Nowhere else in the United States is that airspace controlled like that.
And I was aware that you were on the line waiting, and I had an option to either answer the phone or not, JC, and I chose not to.
unidentified
Not to, because I was going to shout down that disgustator with my truth.
And that's beside the point anyway, because I want to address you about your fully, you've fully ascended into the realm of food pornography, pizza punch pornography.
And I told you this was going to happen, people, that He would be on the forefront of doing this, and you have done it.
You have unleashed.
How dare you do this to America?
Indulging and encouraging debauchery and gluttony among our gluttony, huh?
What I'm going to make good is the fact that you are denying the God.
Listen, also, Jerry Falwell, you haven't done a tribute show to him, but bless his soul, he's burning in hell now because he refused to accept the new revelation, just as Brother Diamond will burn in hell because he's the only one who thought he had the righteous truth of Jesus Christ Almighty when he knows that I've got the righteous truth.
I'm God's Ten Star General, the only one authorized to bring forth the new revelation.
All right, well, on that note, we'll end it right back.
Here I am.
Coming up in a moment is Peter Ward.
Peter Ward is a professor of biology, a professor of Earth and Space Sciences, an adjunct professor of astronomy at the University of Washington in Seattle.
He is principal investigator of the University of Washington node of the NASA Astrobiology Institute, which involves the leadership of over 25 scientists studying the probability of finding life beyond the Earth.
That should interest many of you.
He's also senior counselor of the Paleontological Society and was awarded an affiliate professorship at the California Institute of Technology.
I read a story in the first hour that shocked me, and it's from CNN.com.
I have a feeling I believe it came from England through Reuters.
It says a southern ocean around Antarctica is so loaded with carbon dioxide, it can barely absorb any more.
So more of the gas will stay in the atmosphere to warm up the planet.
Now, the scientist who found this says human activity is a main culprit, Connie LaQueer, something like that, saying she didn't expect this phenomenon to be apparent for decades.
But apparently, Antarctica is simply loaded.
It's carbon sink, and it's now loaded with CO2 to the point that it can't hold any more.
A quote here is a possibility that in a warmer world, the southern ocean, the strongest ocean sink for CO2, is weakening and is certainly a cause for concern.
No, but I've been following it from another point of view.
The Northern Ocean, as you know, cold water takes more CO2 than warm.
The northern oceans in the Arctic have taken on so much CO2 that their acidity has risen to the point that all the small tiny little mollusks called pteropods, which are the base of the food chain, their shells are being etched off their back.
It's so acid that the marine mollusks can't secrete calcium carbonate shells.
That's trouble.
I hadn't heard about the Southern Ocean, but it's just more food, more wood on the fire here.
And it's funny that in Science Magazine this past week, for the first time ever, investigators looking at the ice core records from Antarctica discovered that three times during the Pleistocene, the ice ages, huge amounts of carbon dioxide came right out of solution as big bubbles, just as you're describing.
This has been theorized for a long time, but here is the first time that there's proof that it happened out of an ocean.
We know it's happened out of a lake.
Ark, you remember that horrible situation in Africa, Lake Nyos in the 80s?
I think what happened in Africa, it was a volcanic lake.
It was a very special case where the lake itself was sitting in a big crater and it kept releasing volcanic gas, but the warm water on top trapped it down in the bottom, in the colder water on the bottom.
But the whole system just overturned.
It may have been a big storm, something, an earthquake, something perturbed it, and the cold came to the surface.
It's an oceanic overturning, it's called.
Now, this mechanism was thought to be what caused the Permian extinction in a paper in 1996.
And that's in my book, Under a Green Sky, which is really one of the really interesting bits of evidence in that book how that extinction could have happened.
Yeah, there are very short periods in the geological past when large numbers of species rather suddenly went extinct.
You know, the whole point is how sudden is the rather suddenly.
Well, we certainly know about one of them, the dinosaur extinction of 65 million years ago.
That was certainly Caused by asteroid impact.
All evidence for the last 20 years since that was discovered by the Alvarez indicates indeed it was caused by, let's say, a 10-kilometer body hitting the Earth.
But none of the others, and there were 15 of them in the last 500 billion years, none of the others show the telltale signs of an impact extinction, which is bits of iridium, which is what you find in outer space asteroids, a platinum group element, or small spherial of glass.
As this thing hits, it throws a lot of rock up into the sky, and it comes back, melts into tectites.
Well, we don't find any of that around these other mass extinctions.
Well, when that asteroid hit very quickly, so much material was thrown up into space.
And we know where the crater is, of course.
It's the Chiksamukh crater in the Yucatan Peninsula.
So the crater now is 200 kilometers across, so 120-mile-wide crater.
And think of the volume of rock that was thrown up into space.
Well, not all of it went into orbit.
Some came back quickly, and as it comes back, the hot rocks, they get hot heated and catch fire to things when they hit the ground.
So the forest caught on fire.
We know that much.
Secondly, all the dust obliterates the sun for a while, so we have those sunlight photosynthesis stops, and we have an awful lot of sulfur material because it hit in a sulfur-rich sedimentary rock sequence.
So you've got sulfuric acid.
So the place becomes very acidified.
You've got worldwide global forest fires, and you've got a lot of dust falling on everything.
After that was discovered in 1980, we thought all the mass extinctions were caused by these asteroids.
And indeed, one by one, we went out, we scientists were interested in this.
And extinction after extinction, we couldn't find that evidence.
And it was getting very frustrating.
And I think the actual cause has been discovered only in the last three or four years.
It's by a lot of different people.
Well, one in particular, a man named Lee Cump from Penn State.
And he has suggested, and I've gone out to many of these sites and found confirming evidence, that these mass extinctions are caused by short-term global warming, which creates a series of bacteria in the oceans, which produce toxic hydrosulfide gas or hydrogen sulfide.
So we've got a case where the world is poisoned by poison gas.
And interestingly, I have one of the great experts on ice caps down in my guest bedroom, Joe Kirschfink from Caltech, the man who discovered Snowball Earth, is here for four days working with me.
And I asked him tonight, I said, look, I'm going to be on Ark Bell tonight, and how long do you think it would take to melt Greenland?
And he said, a thousand years at the rate we're going.
Well, that sounds like a long time, but geologically, it's an instant.
So we could start this gas attack mass extinction process in 1,000 years or somewhat less.
Well, we're starting the process now, but we've got 1,000 years to correct it.
It says since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the world's oceans have absorbed about a quarter of the 500 gigatons of carbon emitted into the atmosphere by humans.
500 gigatons.
Now, what I'm worried about, again, and I really am worried about this, a thousand years to most people listening right now, hey, that sounds pretty good.
You know, that's okay for children.
That's okay for grandchildren.
A thousand years, that sounds pretty good.
Everybody's going to go, okay, let's not worry about it.
What I'm worried about is some sort of trigger that would cause a release in perhaps just one of these oceans, releasing its CO2 suddenly.
And again, the physics of this has been worked out.
It is possible.
There's an even scarier prospect that's quite related to that.
What if it isn't CO2 that gets out?
But what if it's methane?
There's a guy at Northwestern named Greg Riskin, who's the chemical engineer a couple of years ago, did some calculations that the Black Sea has at its base, at its bottom, enormous quantities of methane, which could come out of solution.
And were this to happen, of course, methane is flammable.
So you have this big bubble of methane come out and is struck by lightning.
And in his scenario, he had this floating over China and burning up about half of Asia.
Well, everybody laughed, ha, ha, ha.
Except the physics is quite correct.
And now, I mean, your statement about the storage of CO2, the same happens to methane.
And so we have these unbelievable greenhouse gases.
And let's just say that the CO2 does come out.
You've got all of a sudden a huge plug of new greenhouse gas into the atmosphere.
And you know about feedbacks that when we melt ice, the albedo of the planet reduces.
Albedo, of course, is reflectivity.
So all the ice, when it goes away from Greenland and Antarctica, exposes black rock, which absorbs more sunlight, which makes the planet warmer, which melts more ice, which makes more warmth.
And so you see how this circular pattern goes.
And it's funny you talk about tipping points, because again, my friend Joe Kershnik said, look, he's really worried about one of these runaway tipping points.
And perhaps this sudden release of CO2 would do just that.
In which case, the thousand-year estimate, as he said downstairs, is out the window.
Well, we have a pretty good geological record of past CO2, and the last time we had 1,000 parts per million was 60 million years ago.
It was the Eocene.
It was the last time that we have the fossils of crocodiles and palm trees past the Arctic Circle all the way up almost to the North Pole.
So that world would be absolutely globally warmed.
But at the same time, 1,000 ppm, certainly you could breathe.
CO2 at that level isn't going to affect us physiologically.
But what will happen, and the biggest danger, aside from these real catastrophes that are, that you've honed in on, the biggest catastrophe, of course, will be the sea level rise.
And I talked about 1,000 years from now that we could start this pathway to the mass extinction.
But 1,000 years from now, the sea level rise will have finished, and we will have sea level 240 feet higher than we have now.
So, yeah, 1,000 years from now, there's a lot of trouble, but there would have been tons of trouble well before that.
I hate to sound like I'm plugging a book, but I really, In this recently written book of mine, I tried to have a timetable, try to let people see in step-by-step fashion, first of all, why the past relates to the future, what can the past tell us, and what do we really need to do.
I mean, this is sort of the ground truth.
It's the worst news about global warming comes from the past.
By 2050, sea level will have risen at least by a meter.
That alone is going to cause enormous and catastrophic changes on this planet for the simple reason that if sea level rises three feet, the deltas, which now take actually give us about one quarter of our food, deltas are enormously productive.
Well, with a one-meter sea level rise, much of the deltaic areas on the planet, the Nile Delta, the Mississippi Delta, all of these rich agricultural regions get injection of salt.
The sea doesn't have to cover them to have them turn into wasteland because, as you know, the salt runs up these freshwater estuaries and it kills the soil.
So even by 2050, when we're peaking, human population will be heading towards 9 billion.
I don't think we can even have 6 billion people on this planet with the standard of living that we all want.
And again, let's go back to CarbonArt.
You can see that 6 billion people now with a coal-fired lifestyle, which is pretty much what India and China are going to have.
China, as you know, is putting online two to three coal-fired electricity plants per week.
And it's all coal because they don't have the oil to run their power plants.
They don't have much in the way of nuclear.
So coal it is.
India is the same thing.
So because of these extra demand with all these new people that we're producing, we are rapidly changing the atmosphere of this planet.
So that really is going to impact on our food production because it's not just the lifestyle of a middle class, but can you get your kids enough to eat?
It's really going to dictate how the future unfolds.
By the way, Professor, if your guest is awake and would like a word with the audience, I'd be more than willing to say, put him on, let him have his say.
He's the guy that discovered Snowball Earth, the fact that the planet froze from cover to cover back 700 million years ago and once 2.3 billion years ago.
I mean, this guy is a tremendous, interesting character.
And what I worry about is, again, that thousand-year number is when things start.
And let's go through the sequence of events because it's not just it gets warmer and things die.
As you well know, what drives currents and wind on this planet is the differential in heat.
The fact that our north and south poles are cold, our equator is warm, that difference in heat drives all the currents.
It drives things.
You know, the popular misconception of global warming, the future world, is superstorms.
Well, as we get towards a really globally warmed world, we will indeed have an increase in storm violence.
But when we finally get the poles that are almost as warm as the equator, all storms turn off.
Wind slows down.
You get an absolutely calm world, not a really agitated world, because there's no heat differential anymore.
The thermohaline currents that you so ably talked about in producing the day after tomorrow, you know, in that movie and in that script that you produced, I know that you switched that thing off.
Well, it can get switched off, and it can get switched off simply when the Arctic is warm enough that it no longer drives these thermohaline circulation patterns.
Yeah, turning off, and the other thing that even scares me more than turning off is if it changes position and starts dumping its cargo of water not way up north, because way up north, by the time that water sinks down, it's cool, and cool water carries lots of oxygen.
But if it shifts to the point where it drops water down that has this warm water, warm water carries no oxygen.
And we know that at the end of the Paleocene, which was 63 million years ago, the conveyor belt switched to the point that oxygen-free water gets dumped on the deep ocean.
The deep ocean went anoxic, no oxygen.
And over time, the entire ocean became like the Black Sea.
So that's the scenario.
When that happens, a whole new type of bacteria can emerge.
And these are bacteria that produce the very poisonous gas, hydrogen sulfide, as a byproduct of metabolism.
If these things get to the surface, they can start releasing this hydrogen sulfide, these big bubbles that come out.
And that, we think, what caused the Permian extinction, which was the biggest of all mass extinctions.
My lab just discovered last week, one of my grad students finally found evidence that the Triassic-Jurassic mass extinction was caused by these great bubbles of hydrogen sulfide coming out 200 million years ago.
And it's going to be, and even before it's totally gone, sea level begins to rise really fast.
And so this upward rise in sea level, I mean, let's face it, the country of Bangladesh, if they had a six-foot rise in sea level, between one-third and one-half the population would be displaced.
Where are they going to go?
They have to go inland.
And the whole Bangladesh has no mountains.
You know, it's stuck on a big lowland.
There was a big tidal wave some years ago, not the most recent one, that killed many people there just because it's so low.
Bangladesh is one of many countries that even a four to five foot sea level rise will just devastate.
I mean, devastate because the farmlands are gone and the displacement of people.
I know that when you have stories in the news about mass anything in Bangladesh, people roll their eyes like, yeah, you know, that kind of stuff always happens in Bangladesh.
Yeah, so let's try a six-foot to eight-foot sea level rise in these coastal cities, and you see what happens.
You know, just as an interesting little sidelight, I started asking myself, because I'm writing a book proposal on what sea level rise would do to America.
And just trying to think about, you know, so much of cities, of the infrastructure of cities, is subterranean.
Think of all the electrical systems and all the sewage systems and all the water systems.
So even when we have a slight sea level rise, we start flooding all that stuff.
You can't get to it.
You can't get to your electricals, and they start shorting out under salt water.
Chicago had some major flood some years ago, I remember, that it caused all kinds of havoc.
When we have a six-foot sea level rise on the coastal cities of America, I mean, parts of those cities will have to be abandoned not because they're flooded, but because they lose their infrastructure.
I mean, just Wall Street itself, you know, all that stuff is right down at the lower end of Manhattan.
It's all at sea level.
And you've just got water lapping up and affecting, again, so much of that has built up, and you've got all the sewage, you've got all the electricity down there.
Who's going to get in there and be able to work on that stuff when it gets flooded by seawater?
You see, Professor, the problem is that a lot of people don't believe this, and they don't believe it because there has been a concerted effort to debunk what you're saying.
Well, the one that I keep hearing over and over from the call-ins is this idea that there's no connection between carbon dioxide and global temperature.
And the second one I hear over and over, of course, is that even if there were, there are natural cycles and humans have nothing to do with this whatsoever.
And so what I try to trot out is the rock record, which can tell us what CO2 was in the past, and can also tell us from the fossil record what types of animals were around.
When you have a high CO2 from the rock record and you recognize at the same time there were coral reefs all the way up to the Arctic, that there were palm trees in the Arctic, it's not really Arctic anymore.
On the other hand, when we had very low carbon dioxide, we see times when we have glaciers that are going all the way down to the mid-latitudes.
CO2 got so low at certain times that we almost went completely glacial, these snowball events that I talked about.
So there's a very good correspondence.
And then secondly, about humans doing it.
We just have to look back to before the Industrial Revolution.
You know, we had low CO2, 180 to 240, bouncing around for the last 3 million years.
Well, it looks like pretty soon is certainly happening if we look at the number of hot years.
And if we look at the effect between this heat and the hurricane cycles, again, even though way off in the future, the globally warmed world is very calm, getting there is another story.
And again, the Atlantic hurricane forecast I just saw coming out is for another bang-bang year.
There have been some pretty wild ideas proposed by some scientists to technologically cool the planet, to put up some reflectors so not as much sunlight gets in, perhaps to have a program of spraying to reflect light.
Is there anything out there that is tempting, that's interesting, that might work?
Yeah, there's a lot of solutions, and my sense is that what we're going to have to do is fix this whole thing technologically.
You know, the conservation movement is sort of based on, let's go back to nature.
Well, nature ain't going to fix it because it's so thoroughly broken.
I think the survival of the human race is really going to depend on global engineering on massive scales.
We're going to have to get our acts together to coordinate this as a world, not as individual countries, which is why it's going to be so darn hard to do.
But for instance, there's a new program in the Pacific, a pilot program right now, in which they're seeding the Pacific, so much of the ocean out there, the middle oceans, as you know, is a desert.
It's a biologically empty place because there's not enough nutrients.
So they're seeding it with iron, lots of fine iron pellets into the surface waters, and it's causing plankton blooms, enormous plankton blooms.
And this plankton does what?
It takes up CO2, and the plankton live for a while, they die, they fall down to the deep bottom and take that carbon out, it falls into the sediment, and it's out of the system.
So this is a hope is that we can seed the world or the big ocean, middle parts of the oceans, to produce so much plankton that you could reduce carbon dioxide in this way.
Whole nations, they hope, would glom on to this type of technology, realizing that after we have a couple of giant catastrophes, I have another friend, David Battisti, who's a great modeler at the University of Washington where I work.
And he said he thinks it's going to take a huge couple of big shocks.
And by shocks, he means a mass mortality of humans from a global warming-derived incident or two, to really get people to get their act together.
And the other thing, he said, the sad thing, it will almost demand not a global country, but a global governmental system that can bypass the various, like the United Nations, what it should be instead of what it is, because it's going to take a concentrated global effort to get things done.
So in 50 years, there's 100 right there, and it's 380, 480.
So 50 years from now, if things continue as they continue, we hit just about 500 with the tipping point.
But things aren't continuing at the same rate.
Because again, with these new Chinese plants, I noticed that Canada, which thinks of itself as such a green country, up in Edmonton, they have the oil shale project.
They're turning oil rock or oil shale into oil.
But at the same time, they're discharging more carbon dioxide in a smaller area than any place on Earth.
I don't know of any contrarian scientists about global warming.
Where the debate still goes on is on these mass extinctions, because there are still people that think, oh, gee, you know, large-body comets and asteroids are what caused these things, or maybe supernova, or something extraterrestrial.
This is still brand new, this understanding that several of our groups are finding was rapid global warming, that there's a lot of interesting give and take on that.
I mean, that's where the frontier of the science is right now.
One of the things that I've been really struck by is when I'm talking to engineering colleagues and listening to other people talk about this is that sure enough, there's going to be great challenges to our economy if we stop industrialization.
You're right.
We go back to the horse and buggy.
On the other hand, why don't we look at this from a capitalistic point of view?
The country that figures out first how to really make equipment greener, the way that you have solutions to this is going to require entirely new ways of engineering, entirely new ways of manufacturing.
Somebody's going to get there first, and whoever gets there first gets there rich.
China is trying its darndest right now to come up with engineering solutions on how to reduce greenhouse emissions and at the same time keep productivity up.
It's that sort of solution, I think.
I mean, look at Toyota.
Toyota has become the number one auto seller in the world.
It's not just their hybrids, but that has certainly helped because they have very quickly adapted to the marketplace, and the U.S. automakers have not.
We have to be nimble, I think, in terms of business and certainly in terms of engineering.
And the way our country is set up, you know, we like to live in the burbs and drive to work.
So I just, in my wildest dreams, I cannot imagine, Professor, how we're going to, you know, in a way, I understand what the current administration is doing.
And it's like they're kind of like they're in denial.
And I can't say that I blame them because I don't, kind of like that last caller said, how are we going to do this without sliding back to an earlier day that nobody's going to like?
The old Eastern cities where they're all piled up one on top of the other, actually, those may become the cities of the future again, where you can walk to the corner store where we don't have giant supermarkets because we do get out of our cars.
They're about to charge people to drive in New York City.
That's going to really change things in there, too, from a city point of view.
Doug, in Hollywood, Hollywood, California, I presume, west of the Rockies, you're on the air.
unidentified
Yes, that's me.
It's an honor to be on your show, Art, and it's an honor to be able to ask you a question, Mr. Ward.
I have your book, The Life and Death of Planet Earth.
And what I wanted to ask you is, how do you know that this particular episode of global warming is not part of a cycle that we've noticed over the last, oh, let's say, I think it was about every 500 years ago,
or excuse me, 500 years or so, we notice global cooling as from around 1100 to the 1600s when the Earth cooled down significantly, and then we had the little ice age, and then after that, the Earth has been warming up again, and that appears to be a cycle.
Yeah, well, what I'm saying is that there are cycles and the scientists who look at this have to be really careful to try to divest any sort of analysis, get those cycles out of there.
The way I've seen it responded to by the climate people I respect is that, yes, we had the little ice age and we've had these ups and downs, but where we are now in CO2 is well higher, well beyond anything that took place in the little ice age all the way back to 10,000, 12,000 years ago.
You know, Al Gore in his movie showed that graph at the end, and it's still, he's dead on.
In some things, I don't think he was very accurate, but on that one he is, is that we've moved out of sort of the ping-pong up and down of the 180 to 250 in parts per million of CO2 that led to those short-term climate events.
Now, I can guarantee you that just mentioning the name Al Gore will obliterate the thinking processes of a third of the listeners right there.
I mean, they are so upset with Al Gore, they hate him so much that they will say, oh, if he's saying anything about Al Gore, then I'm turning the radio off.
Color, is that enough of an I think what the caller wants to know is the ice ages and the climate changes coming and going, the natural cycles, how positive are we that we can pin X number of percentage on human beings above and beyond any cycle going on?
I was curious, at what point in human history, or I mean, excuse me, earth history, can you go back to to see a level of CO2 similar to or comparable to what we have today?
Hey, and here's a, before I ask my question, I had a theory of my own that I've always had and I wanted to tell you, that the dinosaurs' extinction was caused by themselves.
Because what is one of the heavy methane.
Methane.
And what do dinosaurs, most of them, the biggest ones, eat?
One of the most relevant and interesting critiques of all is could the global warming cycles that we're seeing actually be related not to carbon dioxide, but to solar cycles themselves?
And this has been the last year.
There's been a lot of give and take on this particular one.
And on the surface of it, it seems like a pretty good criticism.
But we do not see records, at least records that we can relate back to.
People have been watching sunspots, for instance, for the last 150 years or more.
We don't see, for instance, anything that correlates sunspot activity.
And we know sunspots themselves Are correlated to the sun's activity of becoming quiescent and then becoming more stormy and going quiescent.
Those don't relate.
They don't correlate at all to the climate cycles that we see in the planet.
Now, maybe we have pulses of the sun that were more energetic before human history, before we've had a record of it.
Well, we just can't answer that one.
But at least the solar people that I know, and I've asked them explicitly, and they say, no, I don't think so.
Well, I'm sure I'm wrong about a lot in this world.
In terms of the whole issue of global warming, there are so many individual aspects to it that I bet I'm wrong about a lot of it.
The easiest thing to be wrong about are the estimates of when things are going to happen.
I mean, you know as well as I do that forecast in the future is a very tough business.
But the overall trends, I bet I'm not wrong.
And the sequence of events, I think I'm perfectly right on.
And again, at the end of this book I've just written under a green sky, I just lay out as best I can see it what the next thousand years is going to look like.
There's a place called Hood Canal in my state, Washington State, that's entirely dead now.
But the Gulf of Mexico has them.
And these are big areas of water where the oxygen is out.
They move along as coherent sort of bodies of water separated for the oxygenated water.
And indeed, they can enlarge and do.
And when they cover over a sea bottom, for instance, all of even the in fauna, the stuff that lives buried within the sediment, dies off.
These are, of course, due to overproduction of the water.
If you have too much nitrate and phosphate, you get animals living like crazy, plants blooming away, and then they use up the nutrients and die, and they rot.
And yet there's so many animals and plants that the rotting uses up every bit of oxygen.
And that bit of water goes anoxic.
Now let's imagine, Art, that all of the oceans in the world turn into that same situation where there's so much dead rotting stuff.
Well, that's the future in the globally warmed world.
I'm going to just sort of keep bringing in calls and we'll see what we get.
Diana in Florida, you're on with Professor Ward.
unidentified
Thank you, Art.
Sir, I have all the respect for you, but I'm worried because when we put out CO2 or whatever it is, I'm not smart like you, carbon dioxide, plants need that to live.
So then they give off oxygen in return.
And you talked about India and China.
Okay, they're not on Mars and Mars is heating up.
So I have a feeling that this has more to do with the sun, and I think that people are just trying to cash in on it by causing a global tax on carbon dioxide and then also on making money on fuel efficient cars and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.
Just coming off Australia, I was seeing a huge area of land with very few people in it.
And what I saw taking place there is that they had a combination of giant solar fields and big wind-generating machines that were fueling small villages.
So what they're trying to do is use the local sources around them instead of trying to build a plant that's large enough to power an entire city, is do it small and do it locally and try to generate power around you.
And also in Australia, they have people now that are putting solar panels on their roof and generating enough electricity that they're starting to sell it.
Instead of they're buying electricity, they can start selling electricity.
It's not cheap to put these panels on.
It takes you about 10 years of selling to break even.
But after that, you're making money.
And so there are solutions.
And this is, of course, a very sunny place.
But it's a case where Australian industry said, hey, let's jump on this.
There's no reason why we can't have this all over Arizona, California, anywhere where we have very good positions.
But on this point, gentlemen, I think that we've stopped looking at information that doesn't agree with your point of view.
There's a book I was told not to tell the title, but by Fred Singer and Dennis Avery, supported by meteorological societies in Canada, United States, and Australia, and for that matter, the state meteorologist in Oregon and I believe it's Delaware.
And they say that the CO2 cause for global warming is, they debunk it on every page of their book by scientific reasoning and scientific research.
All right, well, can you quote a couple of the debunking points for us?
unidentified
Okay.
What I want to say in terms of points is, number one, you mentioned palm trees in the Arctic.
Let's say that happens again.
There's green stuff growing where it's not growing today.
So if you take away the Mississippi Delta, but you open up all of northern Canada, which is many times larger than our breadbasket, and for that matter, you open up Russia, which is many, many times larger than the United States.
And all that dark earth that you say is going to be exposed, you've got some land there that's available for cultivation.
So the idea that we're not going to have land to cultivate is just hype.
Color, you might not have thought of that, but if you take a trip far up north, you'll find out he's quite right, and the growing season is horrendously short.
So I'm not sure it would be a case where we could just say, well, all right, we can't grow this in the U.S. anymore, but we'll grow it up in northern Canada or Greenland or whatever.
Therefore, all that feet and feet and feet of sea rise, some of that's going to be taken up by simply more humidity in the air worldwide.
So I don't see the great rise in the oceans.
Also, when you take into account that if all the icebergs melted today, you wouldn't raise the ocean an inch because nine-tenths of them are in the water.
All right, to Jim in Montana, you're on with Professor Ward.
unidentified
Thank you, Professor Ward.
I was wondering if the professor could address the fact that there have been reports that only 2% of the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere is created by mankind.
I'm not familiar with that particular statistic, and I think that's a way underestimation from what I understand.
It's a really tough measurement to get because you've got volcanic sources, of course, and the only way you can get an estimation of CO2 coming out of the volcanoes is to measure a few of them over a rate of time and then do an estimate for what all of them would have to be.
But there's a reverse calculation you can do that suggests that's totally not correct.
And this is simply looking at the base level of CO2 before humans were around.
I mean, we know what that is over long periods of time.
It fluctuates up and down, up and down.
But again, it goes from about 180 to about 220 or 240.
But as soon as we humans start sitting around here and doing our industry, you know, we pretty much doubled that.
And so we can look at the amount of time because CO2, you know, it also is taken out of the atmosphere.
Plants use it, it's a sink, and this and that.
But the calculations suggest there's a whole lot more than 2% that humans are doing.
It's way more than that.
unidentified
Yes, but I mean, if you look at, okay, you said earlier that there have been five mass extinctions that weren't caused by a meteor hit, are we correct?
No, it's probably, they're coming from big volcanic events.
But here's where I need to clarify that.
I'm glad you brought that up.
These things took place during times when there were things called flood basalts.
This isn't a normal volcano.
A flood basalt is giant cracks in the ground opening up and enormous amounts of lava come pouring out.
For instance, the whole eastern part of Washington state is all basalt.
It all came out about 30 million years ago.
Russia, one quarter of Siberia, is covered by basalt that came out over a million years.
That's the same time that the Permian extinction took place.
The entire east coast from New York up into the Palisades, all of that is basalt that came out and covers a huge area of the Atlantic under the seabeds.
That came out at the same time we had the Triassic mass extinctions.
So these flood basalts are short-term times when so much lava comes out.
But it's not the lava, it's the carbon dioxide that comes out of these big vents.
And so these are short-term, and there are million years when we have these big CO2 events, and then they stop.
They're generated by magma.
And so we are doing, we're doing the equivalent of a flood basalt right now.
How did you get on the East of the Rockies line, Dale?
unidentified
Well, I got confused, actually.
I moved out here to listen to your show better.
Anyway, I worked on the Super Collider for a while, and I worked in high-energy physics at the University of Houston.
And we had a problem with bogus scientists or bad science, science fiction, passing off as science.
And a lot of times we'd have to just eliminate them from our group.
A lot of them got into law.
There's a way to get funded, which on the Collider we eventually didn't get funded.
But I saw some scientists turn a chameleon change to where they started researching things like this, global warming, where they can make people believe the end of the world is near, and suddenly the funding comes for them.
And a lot of them forsake scientific principles.
They're more on the radio than in the lab.
And even the FBI came and investigated our lab for a while because we had a problem with that.
They're members of the New World Order.
George Norrie brought up some things about how it ties in with certain legal things that are happening now.
The world is changing, but I don't fear the global warming as much as the political changes going on that involve a lower standard of living and sacrificing our principles.
Well, I had a very, very good professor on not long ago who, again, said, look, if you're looking for funding, there's a lot more funding available very quickly if you're willing to sacrifice what you believe and come and speak out against global warming.
That there are oil companies and such that have quite a bit of money available for that sort of thing.
And ladies and gentlemen, what we're looking for and we're getting are contrarians.
If you hate Al Gore, if you think this is all baloney, then you're our person.
So pick up the phone and give us a call.
We'd love to hear what you have to say.
Professor Peter Ward is my guest from the High Desert.
I'm Art Bell.
Here I am.
All right.
I'm going to now prove my point.
During the break, I downloaded my email, knowing what would be there.
And sure enough, Glenn, and I won't give his last name, it's not necessary, sends the following to Peter Ward.
Peter Ward is a nutcase who got his data from the same junk science Al Gore did.
There's not enough ice on the planet to raise sea levels more than 20 or 30 feet.
God, that would be enough.
Anyway, going on, apparently they forgot to remember that a sea under Antarctica that covers most of Antarctica and is 8,000 feet deep, if Antarctica was completely melted, most of the water would go nowhere.
Here is the real story on greenhouse gases.
Fully 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapor, which glow warmer apocalyptic computer models ignore.
While there is less water vapor in drier climates like the Arctic and more in the tropics, averaged for all locations, water vapor is between 2% and 3% of the atmosphere, while carbon dioxide levels are 4 hundredths of a percent.
There is 60 times as much water vapor on average in the air than CO2, which is why CO two accounts for 3.6% of the greenhouse effect.
Water vapor accounts for 95%, while methane, nitrous oxide, and other gases make the remaining 1.4%.
But of course, most CO2 is produced naturally, such as by plants and the oceans, over 96.7%.
In fact, human activity, those cursed gasoline engines and cars and so forth, count for some 3.2% of CO2 in the planet's air.
If you multiply 3.6% times 3.2%, you get mankind's carbon dioxide contribution to the total greenhouse effect presently warming the Earth.
Slightly more than a tenth of 1%.
One-tenth of 1%, that's our total contribution.
All of the demands to deindustrialize America, drive less, save energy, use toilet paper on, I don't want to read the rest of that, I guess.
Both you and Peter Ward and the rest of the paranoid nutcases need to relax and get a grip.
All the computer models are so wrong that they're a joke, and they deliberately omitted the facts to push their agenda to reduce the population to less than 1 billion.
You tell him, or I will, that he is crazy as Al Gore, and the world would be much better without all of them.
In fact, we can all hope that when they start the euthanasia, maybe the members of the global warming religion will volunteer to die first.
Signed, Glenn.
And Professor, I want you to respond to that before we break.
Well, you know as well as I do that when you have thousands of feet of ice on a continent as large as Antarctica and you turn all of that ice which is sitting on land and dump it into the ocean, it has a huge effect.
Fully 95% of the greenhouse gas is water vapor, which glow warmer apocalyptic computer models ignore.
While there is less water vapor in drier climates like the Arctic and more in the tropics, average for all locations, water vapor is between 2% and 3% of the atmosphere, while carbon dioxide levels are 400ths of 8%.
Well, what your interesting listener forgot to note is that global warming heats the entire planet, and that when you take specific parts, like just over the desert, there's not a lot of water vapor, we're looking at a planet-wide phenomenon of warming.
And we're estimating at least a planetary rise in temperature of between four and six degrees before the end of this century at the worst of the models, or two to three in the best cases.
But either way, significant rise of the entire planet's temperature.
Now, it doesn't matter whether there is or there isn't water vapor.
You're looking at the entire planet.
Water vapor is an excellent greenhouse gas.
But as the planet gets warmer and CO2 helps it get warmer, the water vapor becomes even more efficient at helping raise temperatures.
So those are all just sort of nonsense figures that I can say.
Yeah, that title comes from, again, I was talking to David Battisti, a really great modeler, and we were Talking about what the future will look like in a globally warmed world.
And he was telling me about up in the Arctic, things will really be different because in a globally warmed world, his calculations show the clouds will be higher than they are now in a position that they do not exist.
He said, if you look up in the sky in the Arctic, you would never see a truly clear day.
And the other deal, he said, look, you know, I suspect the sky would take on a greenish tint.
The sun running through those very high clouds would probably subtly change the color.
I mentioned this to my book editor, and they jumped all over that.
They said, you mean the sky's going to change color?
It's an honor and a pleasure to be on your wonderful show.
Thank you very much.
My main contention here is that I think the data we're going on here is just a little bit too skimmy to be making these large-scale judgments.
I don't think anyone can say that we can clearly determine right now that the world is permanently heating up or permanently cooling down with or without the help of man.
But the evidence does show that we are warming up, but we don't have a good long scale to compare it to since we've only been here a few thousand years compared to the millions the planet's been here before us.
And the big worrisome aspect of this whole global warming debate is that at least in planetary temperatures, we only have records, as your listener pointed out, not just for some of the data he's talking about with CO2, but planetary temperatures is such a short-term.
And that's why a number of us are trying to come at this problem from an entirely different data set.
And this is why we want to look at past climate change where we have longer time frames to look at.
The rock record lets us look comfortably at millennial time scales.
And we can get very good numbers from these.
The ice cores, for instance, from Antarctica, you can segregate it down into 20-year intervals of time, but you can go back over a half million years or even longer.
And from any one of these ice cores, we can get an exact reading of plus or minus a tiny little bit of what the carbon dioxide level was, what the oxygen content was, what the age of it was.
And from these, there's a really good and accurate record.
And going back into deeper time, the stuff I work on, from calcium carbonate nodules, we can work out what past CO2 levels were, and then we compare that to what the fossil record tells us.
And so from this, we can watch CO2 go up or down.
And in times when it went really fast up, when we had these big flood basalts, we have at the same time or soon after big mass extinctions.
So that's the point here, is the past is saying that, look, when we had really rapid carbon dioxide rises in the past, it has led to mass extinction.
Those rises are very similar to the rates of rise we're seeing today.
Will we have another mass extinction?
Who knows?
But would we be derelict in not pointing out this comparison?
I think so.
unidentified
My only other comment would be that is there any chance, I mean, given the amount of data we have, can we be sure that these are all cause and effect relationships and that we're not, in fact, just imposing a post hoc theory here on this?
That just because certain aspects are shown at these times, these great extensions, that they were in fact the cause and not a byproduct or an unrelated event?
And quite often, you know, those of us speak with the greatest assurance in the world, and then bang, you know, five years later, somebody comes up with something that absolutely destroys that particular paradigm, and something new has to be built.
Well, we look at what the administration is doing right now, for example, Professor, Xing out worrisome statements by top climate scientists in this country.
Really the top guys.
And again and again and again, going to international meetings and Xing out language and that sort of thing.
Is there some scientist that's advising in the White House on which they're basing this contrarian policy?
Tom in Texas, you're on with Professor Peter Ward.
unidentified
Good evening, gentlemen.
Two points, if you don't mind, I'd like to make.
First, when you speak of the carbon dioxide levels coinciding with mass extinctions in the past, why do you believe that it is the global warming that caused the mass extinction?
Was the carbon dioxide not created by massive volcanic action and the ash in the air and the blanketing of the earth, which is the traditional thought process as to why there were extinctions?
I mean, CO2 at that concentration, it doesn't hurt anything.
You know, nobody's dying from CO2.
But what I've tried to make clear, and probably didn't do it well enough, is that what the CO2 does, it causes conditions that produces anoxic oceans.
And we have a big lab we're just putting together now testing the idea from a group at Penn State that the anoxic oceans themselves become the habitat for Purple sulfur bacteria.
These are photosynthetic bacteria that can only live in sunlight but can only live where there's no oxygen.
So you have to have zero oxygen water at the surface.
Well, there's nothing like that on the planet today, but the past oceans were anoxic over and over.
They only get anoxic when global temperatures are really high.
When you have such conditions, these bacteria produce hydrogen sulfide gas.
200 parts per million hydrogen sulfide gas is enough to kill a human.
So we have very small concentrations of this stuff coming out of the ocean.
It's certainly capable of producing the mass extinction among animals that we see.
You know, not everything dies out, and there's different susceptibilities.
But in these chambers at my lab now, we're testing photosynthetic properties of plants and germination of seeds, because it looks to me like the first thing that goes in these mass extinctions are land plants.
We have really good evidence at the Permian that we have something happen, and then we have a huge wedge of sediment that comes pouring into the oceans through all the rivers.
Well, the only way you can get that is if you kill off plants, the roots die off, they release all the soil, and it gets pushed into the sea.
And we see this pattern over and over, a land plant extinction, a big push of sediment from the land into the oceans, followed by a marine extinction.
You know, the marine extinction is powered by the fact that without plants on land, you don't get the springtime runoff with phosphates and nitrates, and that whole cycle breaks down.
So you're absolutely right.
It's certainly not CO2.
And it's certainly not just straight global warming that caused these things.
The missing piece, again, was found just two years ago in this Penn State study, where big sulfur isotope changes were found.
unidentified
I have one other comment, if you don't mind.
I believe, and I'm not a scientist, but I believe we've got the tail wagging the dog here.
It's not so much that we are producing CO2 to detrimental levels from man.
I believe it is the fact that our oceans, is it not true that our oceans convert CO2 into oxygen quite a bit more than any plant on land?
And he works with the Department of Energy, and he's got a couple of PhDs.
And one night we were talking, and we came across the debate.
What I suggested to him was the observations I'd made, and he was doing some research on whether the burning of fossil fuels was contributing to CO2 emissions or if there might be another source.
And he was speculating highly that there was another source.
And I began to say to him that I was taking flying lessons out of San Marcus, and when I went over a field that was 200 acres, it was brown due to overgrazing.
I had a tremendous thermal.
So I had a very, there was a huge micro environmental change of thermals that was created by this.
And flying over Austin to do a touch and go, I went over buildings.
And it was rather frightening.
I couldn't keep the elevation.
I was even pitching forward to try to get down.
But then I told him, I made an observation that when Mexico was burning some fields in a two-week period, the clouds were, the sky was gray, was brown with what the smoke that they had put up.
And I stated to him this had a bigger effect than 100 years of automobiles, of manufacturing.
It literally polluted the skies.
It was beyond anything that I could imagine.
So it looked like agriculture, and he was doing research on that.
And maybe when we finish here, we can get off the air because you probably ought to get his last name and see what research he did develop.
You know, I lived in Sacramento Valley where they used to burn the rice fields every fall, and the sky would turn as brown as your listener just mentioned.
But that's particulate stuff that falls out after a week or two or three.
Certainly the burning of forests to produce fields.
And we get some of the smoke from Asia coming over the west coast of Seattle.
Professor Ward is a professor of biology, professor of Earth and Space Sciences, adjunct professor of astronomy at the University of Washington in Seattle, principal investigator of the University of Washington Node of the NASA Astrobiology Institute, which involves a leadership of over 25 scientists studying the probability of finding life beyond Earth.
He's also a senior counselor of the Paleontological Society and was awarded an affiliate professorship at the California Institute of Technology.
One thing I do want to bring up, the world population, since we're all breathing CO2, everything that has breath, and we have gone over the billions mark now, right?
And the deforestation, which you mentioned earlier, as the world's forests are being chopped up and burned down, right, and those are the things that absorb the CO2, why wouldn't there be more CO2 in the atmosphere?
And Ark brought up another good one, the fact that the oceans have really been our best friends in removing CO2, scrubbing it out.
I mean, the natural systems for removing CO2 are cold seawater is the best.
So let's say we warm the seawater, it doesn't take as much.
As the Arctic oceans warm, they're going to get rid of their CO2.
And so everything accelerates.
As it gets warmer, it gets warmer.
It sounds stupid, but it's reality.
unidentified
You know, I just caught something on the Discovery Channel the other night, and they were talking about ferns, fossils down in Antarctica.
Now, so we do have a history of extreme warmth periods.
You know, of course, there's plate tectonics where they migrated, and I don't know how much that's had an effect with the fossils being discovered down in Antarctica.
But, yeah, we are concerned, but you know, when you make statements about Karl Roe and stuff, you know, picking the lawyer thing, that's kind of like, you know, it puts you over there in Al Gore's camp.
Well, I know, but Color, it was a reasonable question.
My question was, with the attitude that we all observe of the administration about the climate, it's reasonable to ask, are they acting on scientific advice at the White House or political advice?
unidentified
Well, it's one of, you know, you know the answer to that.
She was really nice when you put her on the air a while back.
She's really sweet.
Anyway, as to your guests there, well, I don't disagree with, you know, that climate changes are happening.
I totally disagree with you have some highly speculative conclusions, and it just seems like there's a big scientific community out there that's ping-ponging back and forth, very manipulated data.
And anyone who's taken statistics 101 knows how easy it is to throw a bunch of numbers together.
What do you think he has said, ma'am, that's highly speculative?
unidentified
Well, first let me say he seems to have an agenda that bioengineered solutions are the only things that need to be forced, that need to be implemented.
And you conveniently put in there that it's probably going to have to be done by a one-world government.
Are you aware of there's been reports like the Iron Mountain report, and that's one of the scenarios that they outlined in that report, that it might be necessary to create, first we all know about the alien invasion that they're saying they might have to create to force a government, but they also said that an environmental catastrophe might have to be manipulated or created to force through a one-world government?
Getting governments to agree on something or anything is nearly impossible, and it may take some sort of catastrophic event to cause that, if it can even be caused.
Unfortunately, as far as the climate is concerned, by the time a truly catastrophic event, clearly caused by it, occurs, it'll be too late, won't it?
And I would be the first one to agree that we need to get out fossil fuels.
However, I disagree with the professor, and the reason is because I've watched other presentations by other scientists, and there is one on the internet called the Global Warming Swindle.
Well, I'm not sure if that's accurate, but they're certainly there.
I was inquiring about.
unidentified
What I'd like to talk about is back in the 60s, over 40 years ago, I was a Navy diver, and I was diving in the San Bernardino Straits, a little over 200 feet.
Now, the bottom 7.5 miles down, but I was only down 200 feet.
And for several days, I made dives, and of course, I was in the water a long time because I had to make stops coming up.
I saw no sea life whatsoever during the entire period of time.
And this was 40 years ago, long before global warming.
But Professor Ward, if we're such culprits and we're causing all this carbon dioxide and everything with our fancy cars and our airplanes, with their furnaces blowing and our trains and our boats and everything, who was the ones that was here before that caused all the carbon dioxide?
And as I tried to explain before, there have been short-term periods of really intense volcanism.
Humans have never witnessed this type of volcanism, but we can certainly see the remains of it in great big fields of lava.
You know, imagine the Hawaiian volcano, but over gigantic areas where it's really wet, roping lava.
So those things are short-lived, and they spew an awful lot of carbon dioxide out, and associated with those in the past have been mass extinction events.
So that's my thesis.
unidentified
Well, they say there's more volcanoes going off at this time, more global warming everywhere around the world than ever before.
First of all, let me say that I'm a Catholic priest, and I was at the Naval Academy for two years, and I studied oceanography, and I wanted to major in meteorology, but then I chose religious life.
But I've always been fascinated by meteorology, and I just wanted to quote to you a meteorological forecast that was made 1,500 years ago.
Now, you know, the cliché that, thank you, Mr. Weatherman, we just got done shoveling 15 inches of partly cloudy out of my driveway.
You see, the science is not exact.
But I want to give you a statement made 1,500 years ago.
And I'm taking liberties with this because Al Gore's been invoked, and he said this is a spiritual issue.
This is a moral issue.
So I'm taking just a little liberty, but I'm being scientific.
Let me explain.
Pope St. Gregory the Great said this, all right, in regards to what our Lord said in Luke chapter 21, verse 9.
You shall hear of wars and seditions.
You know, you asked why there's so much evil in the world.
Be not terrified.
These things must first come to pass, but the end is not yet present.
And then he said to them, Nation shall rise against nation, kingdom against kingdom, and there shall be great earthquakes and diverse places and pestilences and famines and terrors from heaven.
And there shall be great signs.
Now let me go to the meteorologist, Pope St. Gregory the Great.
He points out, he says, Behold how our Lord says, when you shall hear of wars and seditions, be not terrified.
These things must first come to pass, but the end is not yet presently.
We should weigh these words of our Redeemer in which he tells us that we must suffer things both from without and from within.
This is coming to the weather.
For wars are waged by a foreign enemy and seditions arise among fellow citizens.
When, therefore, he would warn us of troubles from within and from without, our Lord tells us what shall be done on one hand by our enemies and on the other hand by our brethren.
But to these evils that go before, since the end shall not follow immediately, he adds, nation shall rise against nation, kingdom against kingdom, and there shall be great earthquakes in divers places and pestilences and famines and terrors from heaven.
The last tribulation shall be preceded by many tribulations, and these evils going before in quick succession point to the unending evils that are to follow them.
And therefore, after the wars and seditions, the end shall not be immediately, because many evils must go before to announce the woe that shall have no end.
And here is the weather forecast.
But since so many signs of tribulation Are mentioned, it behooves us briefly, emphasis, to consider each one by itself.
For of necessity we shall suffer some from heaven, some from earth, and some from the elements, and some from men.
First he says, nation shall rise against nation.
In this, behold, the disturbances among men.
There shall be great earthquakes in divers places.
In this, we shall see barrenness of the earth and terrors from heaven and tempests.
This refers to the disturbances of the atmosphere.
For since all things must come to an end before the consummation, all things shall be troubled.
And we who have sinned in all things, in all things we shall be punished, that it may be fulfilled that it is written, the whole world shall fight with him against the unwise.
You claim that you're a scientist, and yet you bring in all these political slams like against President Bush and this.
If you listen to Glenn Beck's show, who exposed the climate of fear hidden agenda of global warming, who interviewed many scientists who are in the fraternity you spoke of, the fraternity of scientists, who are told what to say, not what they have observed, else they'll lose their jobs.
I'm not going to ask you to respond to that because Professor Ward, I assume you have just told us what you absolutely believe to be true based on the science.