All Episodes
Previous Next
Nov. 6, 2024 - Viva & Barnes
02:00:47
TRUMP IS VICTORIOUS! Cackling Kamala Runs & Hides! Election Result Analysis & Commentary - Viva Frei
| Copy link to current segment

Time Text
I want to take a moment to congratulate the DNC on losing another election to Donald Trump.
He replaced me with a candidate who has the same likability as Greasy, Hobo Tate, and expected to win.
And they say, I'm the retarded one.
The Democrats said that I was too old, that I was too slow, that I was a joke.
Well, here's a joke for you.
What do Willie Brown and the 2024 presidential election have in common?
Kamala Harris blew both of them.
I shouldn't have said that.
Seriously. I mean, first Hillary loses to Donald and now Kamala.
This man has beaten more women than Doug Ember.
Anyways, congrats on losing to Hitler again.
I hope he locked you all up this time.
Dank Brandon out.
My fellow Americans and autists who voted for Trump.
There's a word in here.
I want to take a moment to congratulate the DNC on losing another election to Donald Trump.
He replaced me with a candidate who has the same likability as Greasy.
Hobo Tate and expected a win.
Greasy. Hobo taint.
I had to Google that.
People, you know that this video is fake because Joe Biden is far too coherent, far too eloquent, and has far too good of a sense of humor.
Can we all take a breath now?
I don't know if Kamala has conceded yet, but can we take a breath and appreciate what we just witnessed?
I believe it's been called.
I don't know if Kamala has to formally concede.
You go, I just started the show.
Oh, God.
out. Thanks.
Dog waits for me to start the show again.
Look at me at the front door whining.
I need to get a doggy door installed but I'm just waiting for her to scratch her way through the door.
Appreciate what...
Of a miracle we just lived through.
A series of events that is not born out of the divine intervention that we saw on July 13th, but incorporated that.
Trump won the effing election, people.
And now everybody's saying, okay, this is the next chapter of the next book.
Yes, we understand that.
But he won the election.
He... With the coalition that he amassed after surviving an assassination attempt that he, by all statistical odds, was not supposed to survive, set into action a series of events, a coalition, that got a series of players working together to defeat the Democrat demonic machine.
And understand what was defeated here.
We're going to get into some numbers in a second.
And then we're going to get into some big numbers when Richard Barris gets here.
My wife woke up this morning and she says, Viva, Dave, I saw your tweet.
But it was more than a miracle.
It was a miracle and hard work, teamwork, endless effort put in by countless people.
You go with the biggest players in all of this.
You got your Tucker Carlson, but he was already there.
He was already a voice of the people.
You got Donald Trump.
He names J.D. Vance VP, but after the assassination attempt.
You have that miracle which we all witness with our own two eyes and some people still refuse to acknowledge that it was in fact a according to Hoyle miracle.
And then you get the unification of RFK Jr. and Donald Trump.
Throughout the series of events, Elon Musk realizes, oh, this demon crap machine.
Is out for keeps.
They're out to put people down in every sense of the word.
Put them down legally, put them down financially, and put them down physically.
And Elon Musk lives through some of that lawfare.
Elon Musk experiences some of that Democrat peace, love, joy, and tolerance.
And he's like, if Trump doesn't win this election, we don't have a free America anymore.
At some point, Elon realizes what the plan is in terms of the open border.
The open border immigration to voting is the exact same thing as the lockdown ballots to elections was.
It is designed to be exploited so that then it can be used and weaponized in future elections.
Mail-in voting...
To elections is what open borders is to immigration to elections.
Elon Musk understands that.
Donald Trump survives by the breath of God, coalesces with RFK Jr.
Vivek Ramaswamy, who had been in there from day one, hitting campuses, opening eyes.
Tulsi Gabbard comes in.
Other Dems come in.
And all of that happening together because of a miracle of a survival.
And then you get your Dan Bonginos, who have been doing...
Work that cannot be measured.
It cannot be...
You can't put a price tag on it.
Bongino, day in and day out, amassing his Bongino army, mobilizing them, because it doesn't do any good having an army that's not mobilized.
Mobilizes them for action, for surveillance, for making sure that there's no chicanery, for getting 10 people out to vote.
You get your Scott Pressler up in Pennsylvania.
Leg work, his feet must have been bleeding.
You get Steve Bannon getting out of jail just in time.
They locked up Steve Bannon for the four months leading up to the election.
The media ran 90% negative coverage of Trump.
90% favorable coverage of cackling Kami Kamala.
And despite all of that, despite the fact that they physically tried to blow his head off in HD, not once but twice, and maybe even more than that.
Despite all of that, he freaking wins in a decisive victory.
It's only a question of how much now, if it's 288.
I know people don't get ahead of yourself, Viva.
It's either over 300 or like high 200s.
Despite all of that, it's a miracle, and God gave the people that miracle for them to work with.
And people worked with that miracle.
And God gave them that miracle, and the people who had the courage to work with that miracle, to put it on the ballot, and yesterday, How many millions of people?
73 million people voted for that miracle.
71 million, sorry.
FCC licenses.
I put out my wish list.
Before I even get into the sponsor of today's show, I put out my wish list earlier this morning.
I must look like a total lunatic.
I'm walking down the street, barefoot as always, with my phone, like I'm dictating and talking to myself.
I look like a crazy person.
And then my neighbor comes out and we rejoice in the miracle that we have all witnessed and all lived through.
Overwhelming and decisive victory was the last chapter of this book and the first chapter of the next.
Now, election reform.
Full investigation.
The 2020 election.
If anyone had any lingering doubt how fortified up the wazoo it was, I'll show you a number.
It's just going to blow your freaking mind.
Full investigations into 2020.
Criminal prosecution.
Voter ID laws.
Same day results.
Period. End of story.
Border reform.
Shut the border.
Deport illegals with criminal histories, because I think most people at least can agree on that.
Full investigation into the dereliction of duty.
Mayorkas, impeach, and then maybe jail.
Criminal prosecutions of everyone responsible.
COVID jab investigations, full investigations.
Lock them up.
Fauci, I'm looking at you, and you better be looking in the mirror right now.
Your judicial political reckoning is very much on the way.
January 6th, investigations.
Let's get to the pipe bomb there.
Let's get to the bottom of that pipe bomb.
Let's release all of the video.
And then, by the way, did I say full pardons?
I did.
Pardon all of the Jan 6th defendants.
You want to know whether there's been an evolution for Viva here?
I've had an evolution.
At one point I said, yeah, pardon every non-violent offender.
Too bad.
Too late now.
I say even the violent ones have been punished enough, and then even more so.
I got a text from Jake Lang.
I get a text from Jake Lang, one of the Jancic prisoners.
I know some of you don't like him because he engaged in actual violence.
And he says it was self-defense from a tyrannical government that was unleashing rubber bullets, pepper spray on innocent women and protesters.
Too bad.
There were violent people in there.
Had you treated them fairly, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
But you didn't.
You overplayed your hand.
All of them.
Pardons. Blanket pardons.
Why did I take that?
Why did I take that out?
Okay. And then we go into censorship.
FCC violations.
You lose your licenses, CBS.
You're done.
Write to jail.
Release the Epstein client list.
Prosecute all of them.
Ukraine funding audited.
You know, I put out a tweet the other day.
Someone I'm friends with on the internet says, I thought billionaires would be happy to pay into a social safety net.
And I'm like, when you can't account for trillions of dollars, you have too much money in your coffers already.
Do an audit and account for the money that you're already stealing out of our back pockets.
And if you've lost trillions of dollars, you have too much money in the first place.
You don't need more tax dollars for a safety net.
Quit squandering, siphoning, laundering the money that you already steal from us.
Public health crisis, we get RFK Jr. on that.
So that's where we're at right now.
Transition? Let's see if they try to spy on Donald Trump again.
Let's see if they have a peaceful transfer of power, which they never had the first time.
You want to stand the numbers?
You want to stand the numbers?
Hold on.
Hold on.
You want to talk about media collusion?
This jackass, Luke the Puke Zaleski.
Let me see what he's at again.
Legal Affairs Editor, Conde Nast.
GQ Magazine.
Head of fact-checking.
He's been putting out every day for the last...
Three freaking years.
Never forget how bad it was.
Oh my god.
January 6th.
My insurrection.
This idiot puts out this montage and doesn't understand the point that he's actually proving by accident.
It's called Operation Mockingbird, you jackass Luke.
Oh, it was so much worse than you were...
No, it wasn't worse than I remember.
It was actually not as bad as you manufactured in your TDS diluted head.
It was so much worse.
Look at all of the media, almost in tandem, simultaneously running the same stupid-ass headlines.
Oh my goodness, Trump mob storms Capitol.
Washington Post, Star Tribune, insurrection, Arizona Republic, pro-Trump mob invades Capitol, New York News Tribune, under attack, democracy attack, Trump incited mob storms Capitol, intolerable attack on democracy, assault on democracy, insurrection, under siege.
It was such an insurrection under siege that by 8 o'clock that night they reconvened to certify the vote.
It's amazing.
This idiot doesn't understand that he's proving the collusion, the media collaboration.
To run headline after headline against Donald Trump.
And despite all of it, a decisive freaking victory against these demons.
It's unbelievable.
And now people might, might want to be understanding what exactly happened in 2020.
Hold on.
I'm getting it.
Where the heck is it?
Oh, here we go.
This is it.
I can't take the credit for this because the initial graph was put out by Zero Hedge, Tyler Durden.
Look at this.
Democrat popular vote.
We're in the 65 million.
The numbers I have are a little different.
This is probably tinkered with for impact.
Republican popular vote.
Oh, look at this.
65 million, give or take.
65 million, give or take.
81 million votes for Joe Biden, give or take.
And then we're back to 66 million for Kamala Harris.
I went there.
I just wanted to check this out.
Trust but verify.
Zero hedge.
I don't know.
They've made some mistakes, but they're good.
I mean, I like them.
And anybody who has Tyler Durden as their avatar is already in my good books.
I just went back and double-checked.
2008, the first black president of these United States of America.
Who happens to be half black and half white raised by his white mother.
Identity becomes everything when you can bank on it.
The first black president mobilizes more hope and change than anybody on earth.
He got $69 million.
Sorry, I actually got distracted.
I was going to make a 69 joke, but then I got distracted.
He got 69 million votes in 2008.
By 2012, people were a little bit...
Not enamored with Hope and Change himself, Mr. Drone Strike killing American citizens, sicking the IRS on your political adversaries, running guns into Mexican cartels and leading to the murder of border ages.
I don't know if all that happened in his first four years, but after four years, people were a little less enthused with Mr. Hope and Change.
He got $65 million in 2012.
So $69 million when the world is rejoicing.
65 million after that.
Hillary, when she lost the popular vote to Trump, got 65 million.
Joe Biden, a man who is as bland as toast, he was not yet quite that demented in 2020.
He got 81 million votes.
81 million, allegedly.
And then, look at that, Kamal, we're back to 65 million.
Do you notice a trend?
69, 65, 65, 66. 81 million.
That is 16 million more than the baseline average.
That is 16 million.
32. That is 25% more in 2020 than every prior year for the last three cycles and the one immediately following it.
This is not a statistical anomaly that can be explained by COVID.
This is a statistical anomaly that is now clearly explained by cheating.
They cheated.
Period. Full stop, if only because of the censorship.
But this is concrete evidence.
They just cheated.
And when they mailed out ballots to everybody, ballots are currency.
When I had Mark Robert on on Monday, ballots are gold.
You're mailing gold to everybody.
You are mailing something with a market value to everybody.
And they go and collect them, and they harvest them.
And they keep them there.
And when they needed them, when they knew the number that they needed in order to bet, although it seems like they went a little overboard, they had millions upon millions of ballots to draw from.
And did they do any meaningful signature checks in the only state where there was a contestation on the merits of Georgia?
No, they didn't.
And anybody who tells you that they did a signature verification in Georgia is either a liar or an idiot.
Counting what you already counted is not an audit.
It's not a signature verification.
They never did the required signature verification in Georgia because that would have revealed the problem.
Having a bit of a back and forth, not even a disagreement.
Roseanne Barr retweeted me, and I love it.
And I would love to have Roseanne Barr on the channel or an interview.
But, you know, they say there was so much cheating.
Back in 2020.
And I say, yes, but the ballot harvesting was the cheat.
The dominion, as far as I'm concerned, was the red herring.
Used to entrap people, used to discredit people, and used as the lawfare to silence bankrupt Giuliani, Sidney Powell.
Because people did make objective mistakes, but that was the red herring.
That was not where the actual fraud was.
People ran with it, they got discredited, and they got sued into oblivion.
And then...
Fox News coming in with their $787 million settlement.
Partaking in the money laundering scheme.
Because Fox, as far as I'm concerned, was pretty much in on it.
At least a willing player in it.
So they used the Dominion voting red herring to distract from the actual fraud that occurred in 2020.
And it's plain for the eyes to see now.
69, 65, 65, 81, 66. Yeah.
If you believe that that's organic.
And if you believe that, that's only explained because it was easier for people to vote, horse crap, because it was just as, not just as, pretty much as easy this time, except they weren't just mailing ballots willy-nilly by the millions to everyone.
Everyone was indefinitely confined.
Everybody could vote by ballots.
They could go to nursing homes and get grandma, you know, hold the pen in demented old, what's his name, Jimmy Carter's hand.
Hey, you voted for the first black woman, good for you.
No, they couldn't do that this time, like they did it in 2020.
That is a long-winded intro way to say, can you believe the miracle that we lived through?
I was told it's not from the Bible.
The Lord helps those who help themselves.
God helps those who help themselves.
I'm told it's not from the Bible, but I love it.
On the one hand, God will not help you if you sit idly by and sit on your hands and hope that God helps you.
When you get out there and you bust your ass and you work and you take advantage of what God gave you to work with, then God will help you.
And we had a miracle by the grace of God.
And everybody should also remember, I'm not reluctant, but I feel like it's not my tragedy to remind people of.
Cory Comparator couldn't vote yesterday.
And Cory Comparator was killed as a result of what happened on July 13. Copenhaver, Dutch.
Grievously wounded.
Like we say, this is a miracle.
But this is a miracle now that has, in a way, there's no justice that can be done.
But this is a miracle now that is, I don't know, there's no alleviating the tragedy and the loss.
There's no vindication of it, but it was not in vain and it was not for nothing.
They actually, and I'm saying they, I'm saying uniparty, deep state, that did not want to see Trump come to power.
Does not want Trump releasing the Epstein list.
They tried to kill him.
And in so doing, they killed Corey Comparatori and they shot two other people.
And so he wasn't there yesterday to vote.
But millions of other people voted.
And people took advantage of the miracle, the tools that by the grace of God were given to them.
You had the coalition of people working tirelessly day in and day out, and they defeated all elements of that evil scheming plan.
Hold on.
Ephesians 6.11.
Ephesians 6.11.
Put on the whole armor of God that you may be able to stand against the wiles of the devil.
That's not the version I know.
Put on the armor of the God that you may be able to stand against the schemes of the devil.
And that is from ESV, which is the English something version.
I don't know what that means.
I mean, I know what it means.
Put in the full armor of God so that you can take your stand against the devil's schemes.
And that is what happened yesterday, and that is what happened over the course of the last years.
Because this was years in the making, and it happened, people.
And now, the next chapter...
What's the word I'm looking for?
It starts with reck...
Reckoning? Is it reckoning?
I can forgive and even have no issue with innocent, good, well-meaning Kamala supporters.
The powers that be and the tools and the people that were pulling the strings are not well-meaning and they are not good-natured.
They took advantage of people's stupidity.
They took advantage of people's ignorance.
They took advantage of their levers on the power to try to manipulate, extort, coerce, and kill their way into power.
And I will never forget.
And I am just...
Holy crap, apples.
It's a miracle.
All right.
Now, before we get into it, we're going to get into the show.
Barris is coming in after a hit with...
After a hit with...
Jeans Louise.
Benny Thompson.
I was supposed to go on with him yesterday, but it didn't work out.
I want to thank our two sponsors for today's show, everybody.
We all have two ages.
Our true age and our biological age.
Our biological age suggests how healthy or unhealthy we are inside what your bio age...
You want your bio age years younger than your true age.
And let me tell you how Field of Greens is helping me do that.
Field of Greens, it's an organic super fruit and vegetable.
Drink. Unlike any other serious nutrition, Field of Greens was approved by a university study that doctors believe may lower your body's biological age.
That generally means better health.
Each fruit and vegetable in Field of Greens was selected by doctors to support your vital functions like heart, liver, kidney, metabolism, immune system.
Only Field of Greens is backed by the better health promise.
At your next physical checkup, your doctor will notice your improved health or your money back.
Join me for the health challenge, 15% off.
And free shipping.
Visit fieldofgreens.com.
Use promo code VIVA.
Fieldofgreens.com.
Promo code VIVA.
We'll get you 15% off and free shipping.
And while we're on the subject of health, people, you've got to know what's going on.
By the way, I've noticed that there's prebiotics, probiotics, and now I know that there's a thing called postbiotics.
And I actually asked my wife this, and she confirmed.
It's a thing.
You got to plant them, grow them, and then take care of them, the gut biome.
Speaking of digestive issues, this is caused by a potential toxin that's in all of the so-called healthy foods that we eat that scientists have been telling us are good.
The food pyramid, et cetera, et cetera.
For the longest time, this potential toxin causes digestive issues, according to Dr. Gundry, a world-renowned cardiologist that is affecting millions of people nationwide.
Warning signs include weight gain, fatigue, digestive issues, discomfort, stiff joints, and skin problems.
Well, Dr. Gundry explains these side effects are often mistaken for signs of aging, so-called normal signs of aging, and they're not.
I can assure you that the damage is probably caused by so-called healthy foods, and it's far from normal.
The good news is you can easily help fix the problem from your own home.
Very simple.
You need to know which ones are good and which ones are bad.
And what you do is watch the movie GutCleanseProtocol.com slash Viva.
GutCleanseProtocol.com slash Viva.
The link is in the description.
Watch it.
It's exquisitely informative.
After years of research, Dr. Gundry has decided to release an informational video for the public free and uninterrupted showcasing exactly which foods you need to avoid and which ones you should eat.
GutCleanseProtocol.com forward slash Viva.
I watched it, by the way, and what I'm happy with...
You come right in in studio.
What I'm happy with is that avocado is among the healthiest foods on Earth.
If you can get a good one.
Richard! Listen, what's up, Dave?
It's the wrong camera, but it'll have to work, brother.
Robert says the same thing, actually.
For whatever reason, sometimes it doesn't always pick up on the good camera.
You look good, you look sharp.
I know that you're tired, dude.
What time did you go to bed last night?
I really didn't because my kids go to school.
So I was waiting because we were expecting Wayne County to give that last vote dump.
And then I thought we could call Michigan and just get this done and wrap this thing up.
But it wasn't coming, making calls, trying to figure out when it was going to come.
And it didn't.
I mean, a lot of it, about 85% of it is done and maybe even 90% by now.
But that was like 4.30 in the morning.
And then by the time my first gets...
I like to be there with my kids.
And I knew they were going to wake up and ask me, you know, number one, both my kids that are of age to know.
My third is five.
But the two that are getting old enough now to pay attention to politics love Donald Trump.
They love him.
And they really wanted him to win.
And also, second, they understand.
They watched their dad.
I'm not around a lot when the election's around.
It's just very busy.
So I like to be home with my kids in the morning when I can be.
So I tried to make sure I was for the election morning because they had trepidation.
They wanted him to win, and they wanted their dad to be right, more importantly, because they see me stress over this stuff like crazy.
I stay up, Dave, making sure.
I get the numbers right.
It takes a lot.
My kids, one of them is old enough to understand.
The middle one is old enough not to care.
The youngest one is old enough to care but not understand that he should not yet care because he can't even know what he's talking about.
They were all tremendously nervous.
I saw my future also in America potentially on the line depending on which administration comes in and says you all go to jail now.
Richard, okay.
We're going to get into the details and some of the key findings, but you've been doing this for a long time.
It's not vindication in an egotistical way.
This is your livelihood.
This is your expertise.
This is your field.
When you are fighting people who are so wildly wrong, seemingly, and then you get vindicated.
You've got to tell me.
You're not going to be 100% off, but you were spot on.
How good does it feel?
This one probably feels the best.
And I remember 16 like it was yesterday because I don't know.
I was not new, but I was new to most of the public.
And I felt like it was a closer election and, you know, that I was right.
But you're going up against the grain.
And I'll never forget that feeling.
Last night was something else.
It was different.
It was well above and beyond that because this is what I told people going into the election.
In 2016, it looked close, but there was always a chunk of voters that were pretty much fed up.
With the status quo, they didn't want another Clinton, another Bush or whatever.
And all Trump had to do was meet what we call the presidential bar.
Like they convinced voters that they can do this job.
And once he did, those voters broke for him.
I don't know what other pollsters were doing.
I don't know what they were seeing, but I thought it was pretty clear.
In 2020, it was hard to find his support.
COVID was messing up their panels.
It was messing up response bias.
It was a difficult environment.
And you had to go search for the guy's support.
This year was not like that.
And I'm wondering what on earth...
All of these other people are doing.
You know, how many times we had Barnes on and what are the odds?
I mean, Barnes knows how I do this over these years.
We put it up.
People can see the results live on one of the odds as they're coming in.
And this was not an election where it was like, okay, is Donald Trump going to do better with these groups than he has in the past?
The question was, how much better is he going to do?
And I'm fighting against the narrative from these people.
It's just like complete.
Propaganda. And that is not supposed to be a part of this industry.
Donald Trump won white suburban women last night.
I mean, this is like something that should stun you, given everything you heard running up to the election.
He won suburban women.
The reason why it doesn't stun me is because I thoroughly regard all pollsters whom I don't trust as propagandists who are creating a narrative and not reflecting one.
I know what they can do to tinker with, to get the results that they want, to convince white suburban women.
That other white suburban women are not supporting Trump.
I guess the question is, I've known this for a little bit of time, even from the practice of law.
Other people still trust the pollsters.
I don't want to name other people.
How do you assure other people that your methodology is accurately reflecting the sentiment of white suburban women?
At this point...
I think that we can all go on and talk about the details of our methodology, and I'd like to because I'm a nerd and I really think it's important to talk about it.
But I think at the end of the day, the pollster's track record is going to speak for itself, right?
So if you're wrong consistently, year over year, and this is a great way to segue into actual methodology, but like Marist, for instance, and I'm going to name drop here because this has got to stop.
I mean, embarrassment is the only way we can move forward here.
Marist poll made fun of people like them and their industry.
It made fun of others like me.
Robert Cahaley at Trafalgar, you know, a few of us who have done a better job in presidential cycles in recent years for using different modes of collection to reach these women and others and give them anonymity to make sure that they understand.
Like if I showed you our questionnaires and how our agents interview people and ourselves, you know, and I still, by the way, conduct them myself because I want to keep my ear to the ground.
I personally want to involve myself.
So I'm just not looking at the data that other people are collecting.
I want to talk to the American public.
And that's a big difference.
I don't think any other pollster does that.
I still do.
But they were making fun of these different methods that we have been pioneering over the years.
And then all of a sudden this year, Dave...
They all, Marist and a bunch of them, jump into the fold and decide that they're going to try to use these methods that they had been criticizing as illegitimate, as not the gold standard, not high quality.
They're going to do it, and they had no experience.
So, for instance, Marist sends out their Sunbelt polls, which they did Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and somebody, two people, one, a follower of mine, I know, get the poll and take the poll.
Send it to me and they're like, hey, is this supposed to happen?
They didn't even block survey forwarding.
Survey forwarding is when you text somebody a link to take a survey, which is a great way to reach suburban women and they will give you their more honest opinion when you're not on the phone talking to them and they think that there's a right answer they're supposed to get.
That's number one.
But when you do that, you cannot make it so somebody's getting that survey can then take it and forward it over to you.
So let's say I get it.
I take it and I say, well, Dave agrees with me.
I bet you Dave is going to choose Trump on this.
So let's manipulate this poll.
I'm going to text it to Dave.
So I text it to you.
Then you can click on it and you can take the poll.
Well, first of all, randomness is gone.
Randomization is gone.
At that point, you've perverted it.
It's been tainted.
But also, it'll be tainted by the bias of the people in their social circles that they're sending it out to.
I told RealClearPolitics, they're not even doing this right.
They jumped into this new method, and they don't even know how to correctly block survey forwarding.
There's multiple ways to do it.
One is blocking by cookies, another one by IP, and then you should always assign a unique ID to that URL.
They don't know this.
So this is basically like, it's a chain letter of sorts among ideologically aligned individuals more often than not, from which they then derive their statistics for the purposes of polling.
And that maybe wasn't their intent, but because they actually don't know what they're doing with these new methods that for years they made fun of.
All right, this is what's important.
For years, people like me were trying to pioneer new data collection modes that take out some of the social desirability bias.
I mean, social desirability is really a form of response bias.
There's a lot of different kinds of response biases.
They're driven by different things.
But social bias is a major problem in this country right now when it comes to polls.
And this time, too, there was something else.
And I haven't gotten a chance to talk enough about this.
But in 16 and in 20...
There was a true social bias with people not wanting to say they were for Trump if they were for Trump.
And it was like, I'm not going to get invited to the Tupperware party.
I think the pollster might look down on me.
This was different.
How on earth, if you're trying to imprison...
The nominee of the Republican Party, one of the two major parties.
You want him to spend the rest of his life in jail.
If you're putting his supporters in jail, how on earth could we not expect that voters out there were going to be less than, yeah, a little bit more than timid?
A little less than forthcoming with the truth and the answer that you want them to give.
You want them to be honest, but they were afraid.
We constantly heard people on the phone saying, look, can you call back in 10 minutes?
I just want to research you.
Hey, do I go on a list?
Am I going to be put on a list somewhere?
We have to prompt them at this point and say, look, your answers, all your participation is voluntary.
You don't have to do it.
But it's vital that you do.
But also, remember that your responses are all confidential and anonymous.
We will not tell anybody who you are.
That is what we have to tell these people.
It's unbelievable.
Americans were afraid.
They didn't want to say they were for Donald Trump because maybe the FBI is listening.
I mean, the stuff we heard is stuff you would never hear as a pollster ever before this election.
And we heard it all through this cycle.
I want to read just a couple of...
I'm just going to see some chats as they come up.
Rich, what was Trump's Achilles heel you've intimated about all cycle?
That's coming from Life of Brian.
Life of Brian.
Tell him I'll do Laura's wagging her finger.
We'll do a...
Seriously, we'll do a local stream about that.
What he's referring to is during the primary, I said that I will tell people when this is over.
How to defeat Trump in a Republican primary?
Because they just didn't get it.
They just didn't understand.
And because they didn't, they went down the same road that everyone else went down that tried to go up against him in the past, and they were defeated.
I don't think the indictment was like it.
Of course, it helped him immensely with the Republican electorate, but that was not the end-all be-all.
It's just that...
I have promised this stream to people, and I will do it.
But it's kind of long.
It's kind of long.
I'm going to read through all the chats afterwards.
And then there's some in our locals community, which I'm definitely going to get to.
Okay, so that's one concrete example of bad polling, is by basically tainting your entire pool.
What other...
Actually, I've got to ask you right away.
Iowa, the lady who came out with the poll that said Iowa's going to go to Kamala Harris because women in Iowa are...
Overwhelmed with the issue of abortion and she's now been thoroughly, thoroughly discredited?
Yeah, listen, I'm not done with her and here we go.
Okay, so I'm going to go on every show that'll hear it and I'm going to tell them the story.
I don't know how much time I got to do this.
Stop me if I ramble on.
But listen, dating back to 20...
First of all...
I used to respect Ann Seltzer a great deal, okay?
I mean, probably more than anybody else in this industry.
It is hard to be a woman in this industry, especially when she started.
It is a true boys' club.
And it's a boys' club in both the sense that, you know, women, there aren't many women pollsters.
Kellyanne was one of the very few women pollsters.
And she'll tell you, she's a Republican pollster, that this is a boys' club.
It's not a woman's game.
But secondly, so I respected her for that.
And then secondly, it's a true boys' club in the sense that if you're not invited, To this club.
They don't want you.
Look what they did to me.
Look what they have done to me, Dave, over the years.
Right? Maligned me and smeared me.
So that's what they'll do if they think that you're a threat to them and that you're not part of their clique.
And especially if you outperform them, they're going to do that stuff.
So I always respected Ann that she was able to break through that.
Now, let's get to it.
2020. And before the Democratic caucus, Ann Seltzer did the poll for the Des Moines Register, as she always does.
Joe Biden was in fourth place.
Pete Buttigieg was in second place.
Bernie Sanders was in first place.
Doesn't really matter who's in third because they're not relevant to this story.
And everybody's waiting.
It's a highly anticipated poll.
And CNN announces that they're not going to release it.
And there was a problem with data collection.
I found out, it's a source, I found out, I got the results of the poll, and I found out that the story that was being told publicly was a lie.
The story was that Pete Buttigieg's name was cut off of one of the interviews.
The woman had her Zoom.
So when she was reading the responses to people, Pete Buttigieg's name was cut off.
The truth is that's a lie, and I was told it was a lie.
Mike Cernovich, by the way, also got the results.
He knew the story too, so Mike could back me up on this, I'm sure.
But the bottom line is Pete Buttigieg was happy to be the foil because he thought he was going to surge at the last minute and actually beat Bernie, and he didn't want that poll out.
The real thing was that Joe Biden was in fourth.
Biden campaign pressured CNN, who then leaned on the Des Moines Register, who then leaned on Ann Seltzer, and Ann Seltzer agreed to spike the poll using some BS excuse that even left-wing Patrick Murray at Monmouth University agreed with me is not a legitimate excuse to spike a poll.
It was very easy to correct, even if that story was true.
It was very easy to correct that and move forward, Dave, and they didn't.
They spiked it for political reasons.
And then we get to...
Six months later, we get to the election.
Barnes and I are live on what are the odds, polling Iowa.
I'm showing people with a tiny light weight, plus the raw data, you know, that this is not really competitive.
It's Trump plus eight.
She comes out with a tie, showing that this is a tied race and it's a headline and what a horse race.
It was a lie.
The race was never tied.
She was doing it for headlines.
And then at the very end, she herded to a Trump plus seven so she could save her credibility.
That was 2020.
Now, fast forward again.
To this cycle.
And I mean, she's all over the place with headline polling.
As I'm polling Iowa, it's very consistent.
There's no real change.
She is doing it for headlines.
And then we get to where they're getting ready to push Biden out.
And again, sources tell me she's holding onto a poll that shows Trump is up 19 points in Iowa against Joe Biden, or ballpark just under 20 points.
They ignore me.
I accuse her of holding the poll.
They ignore it.
They pretend like they don't have to answer it.
This is like high school gossip stuff.
But it's really bad because she was holding the poll because it's like she knew that Democrats were getting ready to push Biden out.
Okay? Think about it.
Understand what I'm saying here.
And I've got to be real clear.
She must have known that they were going to try to push him out because she held the poll, re-polled a month later.
And then had Harris doing better than Biden did in the prior poll and only released the initial poll I accused them of holding on to when they could use it to advance the narrative that Harris was performing stronger than Joe Biden against Donald Trump.
Do they alter the date on it?
Or is it known that it's an old poll, but they just release it later?
They pretended like there was no poll.
And then when they reported the new poll, they said, and a poll we did a month ago, which we really didn't.
I mean, it was so dirty how they used, you know, and you don't share a month-old poll like that, even if you did, you know, hold it.
You don't do that because it's stale data.
It doesn't mean because she polled a month before.
It doesn't mean Biden would have came back at the same numbers the next month.
So the fact that she did that is like taking a snapshot in time and applying it to what she wanted it to say.
And then we have what we have here.
Look, the people that I speak to tell me that January 6th broke her brain.
And I'm not saying she did this on purpose with this Iowa poll last Saturday.
I'm saying that as a pollster, if you lose your objectivity, you can find whatever you want in the data.
And you can convince yourself.
That I'm right.
I don't know in this case how she could have done this because, and I tried to give her the benefit of the doubt.
Maybe it was just a poor, very poor response bias.
But in truth, she goes on Mark Halperin to explain the results and the explanation didn't make sense.
The math didn't work.
She said it was all of these new women who cared about abortion.
Dave, abortion wasn't even the number one issue in the damn poll.
Protecting democracy was.
Inflation was at like 7%.
In her own poll?
Okay. I understand how one can falsify them.
Okay, fine.
Inflation is the number one concern.
And then let's just say abortion is number two.
Oh, well, inflation is not a women's issue.
So we'll strike it from the poll and now we'll go ask it again.
Women's issues, abortion.
I can understand that.
So what did she do?
Did she ignore the results?
And exaggerate the secondary results?
Or did she...
No, I think that she got a high participation from a Starbucks line in Manhattan instead of the voters of Iowa.
She probably spoke to too many people in Polk or the university areas.
I don't know unless she showed me the data set.
I wouldn't be able to say for sure.
But it's obvious that the electorate in Iowa is not Democratic-leaning.
She had it Democratic-leaning.
I think she wanted something to be true.
I think she wanted to help advance a narrative.
And I think she was willing to do that, hoping it was true.
Because I polled all the way until the Sunday before the election.
We wrapped up our final interviews on that Sunday.
About 10 days before, Republicans just stopped participating in polls at very high rates.
Explain that.
That's actually fascinating.
Yeah, I think what happened, I don't know this for sure.
We'll have to research this more and find out what happened, if there is a way.
But my running hypothesis is that so many more Republicans voted early this year that when they did vote, they just checked out.
And their interest went down in talking to pollsters.
Their interest went down in even participating in the entire process.
They said, I'm done.
It's in God's hands now.
And I don't want anything else to do with it.
Republicans behaviorally are very different than Democrats.
It's just true.
And then I think the second part of this is, if we were to call back some of those people that Ann talked to, I am willing to bet anything.
That they will laugh in your face and say, I tricked that loser woman.
I guarantee it.
They probably lied.
A lot of them are probably lying to make Ann look stupid.
We come up with this all the time.
And there's only...
It's tough for pollsters to deal with, but I think the combination of the two probably led to a data set that, given her predisposition, which is a never-Trump predisposition, she was able to use to convince herself that that poll was actually anywhere near the realm of credible or legitimate.
Okay, that's fantastic.
I read that and heard it and then saw the results.
And apparently, by the way, Michigan was just called for Trump.
Yeah, let me see.
Michigan has just been called for Trump according to woke center left on Rumble.
That's an indecision desk, but I'm telling you Michigan's going to Trump anyway.
Decision desk hasn't called it yet, but...
It is going to go to Trump.
We're just waiting.
It's official now, right?
Oh, Wayne is in.
Yeah, it's done.
It's done.
Wayne County.
We went into this in detail.
I remember where I was when we did the interview.
He said 34% of the vote in Wayne, Dave, which means he did extremely well with black men in Detroit.
Unbelievable. We had him at 35%, 36%, hovering around there in Wayne, and that's exactly what he got.
So Wayne County is a predominantly black...
It's the home to Detroit.
Yeah, it's the home to Detroit.
It's heavily non-white.
And it is where most of the non-white vote is in the state.
And then around the surrounding area in the suburbs, you have Macomb County to the northeast of Wayne, which is the home of the old Reagan Democrat, we used to call them, to the west of that county, which I think is one of the big stories of the night.
Is Oakland County, which is much more affluent, rich, white, and educated.
And Trump shifted Oakland County a net six points in his direction, it looks like.
So basically shifting every demographic in his direction.
Every demographic.
This was such a mandate win.
It's so hard for me to, like, I cannot overstate how much of a mandate this win is.
It wasn't just, oh, he did it on the backs of white working class, and there was an overwhelming white working class turnout.
There was a big white working class turnout.
And he won them by a larger margin than he won them in the last two times.
But that's not all.
He won suburban white women.
He won...
More affluent, educated white voters back.
Eight-point shift since 2020.
He won an enormous amount of Hispanic voters.
He beat George W. Bush.
And George W. Bush was like the standard for Republicans appealing to Hispanic voters.
Donald Trump surpassed George W. Bush's share of the Hispanic vote.
I saw it too.
It was one of the ones I was going to bring up.
I don't want to put anyone on blast for amazingly rude and racist tweets.
But someone says...
It's time we have to have a discussion about our Latino voters in America.
Like, all of a sudden now, Latinos are no longer going to be the friends of the...
I don't know if the person was liberal, but I presume they were.
Do you know what the stats are now?
Because Miami went red and Miami's heavy Latinos.
Apparently, he's taken like 40% of the vote.
It's 45, 46. It's virtually half of the Latino vote now.
It is.
And when we do the voter-validated surveys, if that holds, because that's, I mean, these are exit polls.
AP VoteCast is better, in my opinion, than the exit polls.
They're basically showing a 50-50 split.
Just a tiny little advantage for Harris.
When we do these voter-validated surveys, I would not be surprised if we find out that Trump actually did a little bit better.
Because as we go around, like the Rio Grande in Texas, we look at, and Florida is, of course, a huge story, but in Texas.
You got a county like Starr County, Zapata County.
Starr County, Hillary Clinton basically won 2-1 against Donald Trump in 2016.
By the time he faced Joe Biden, he had already swung in a good deal, but he still lost it by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin.
This time he beat Harris 58-42.
These are, and Zapata's another one, he crushed her 61-39.
He won Zapata in 20, but he won it with a bare majority of 51.5%.
So taking that in Texas, you have that, which is mostly Mexican.
And then in Florida, when you're looking at Miami, you're talking about Venezuelans, Puerto Ricans, obviously Cubans, right?
And I only had him winning Miami-Dade by six, which was another projection that everybody was giving me.
Like I said, the professional smears that come out of this is just unbelievable.
So hold on, you had him winning Miami-Dade by six, and he won by...
Well, I don't know.
What was the result of Miami?
Yeah, I can tell you.
He won 55.4 to 43.9.
So he outperformed my poll by about five points almost.
Miami-Dade.
Unbelievable. And by the way, then to the north, right, in the northeastern part of the state where Jacksonville is, is a county called Duvall County.
And that's, again...
It's the Jacksonville area.
In 2016, he won it by a few points against Hillary Clinton, and it swung five points to Joe Biden, and it was all about the narrative about the educated white voter in the suburb.
It was an interesting county because Duvall and Georgia have a very strong relationship with each other.
Duvall moves with Georgia because of similar demographics.
And that was immediate to me early in the night last night that Trump has recovered a lot of the vote that he had lost in 20 with educated voters.
Which again, you know, we can have this debate later about like, where are these votes, Dave?
Did he actually...
Did 20 million people not vote this time around?
Because Trump didn't go up from the last time, so it's not like there was a net transfer of the 20 million.
It was 81 down to 65. And we don't have to get into that because I think we both probably agree that there might have been some serious ballot padding or ballot harvesting.
The question I had...
So, do you have any idea of black Americans?
Yeah, so he won somewhere around 25% of black men.
And it depends if you're looking at the exit polls that are done by Edison Research versus the AP VoteCast.
I think the AP VoteCast is a little bit more bullish, but I actually think the AP VoteCast is probably closer to accurate.
25%, which is doubling from the last election.
Yes. I know that I put out a tweet saying that he was going to be a tweet.
We talked about this.
I have to go find that tweet because I'm going to go rub it in a lot of people's faces right now.
I remember you saying, isn't it possible if he wins this percentage of black men that he could really get to 16% overall of black voters or 20% overall?
We talked about this.
He got 25% of black voters overall.
Black men.
And black women?
Black women, I believe he got 12 or 13 in the vote cast.
Overall, he got about 15. One is 15. The other one is 16. Let's call it 15. I'm going to go back to my tweet and see what I said.
One point is unbelievably close.
It's a big deal.
It is.
Let me ask you another one that has always been predominantly Democrat.
The Jewish vote.
Do you have any stats on how the Jewish vote went?
Look, I just had taken vote cast down.
I love this.
You're an absolute nerd.
In the best possible way.
Most people say, okay, I'll go by states and republic.
And then you go by cities.
You go by freaking counties.
And you're tracking this stuff.
It's not subjective.
This is concrete.
Comparisons from one election cycle to the next that nobody knows about or that other people don't sufficiently look into which reflects on their poor predictions.
Yeah, I mean, you really just said it better.
I don't have to add to that.
You just said it.
Fantastic. It's really weird, actually.
The exit polls are only showing him, and this is Edison.
We'll have to see how the voter validated has come out because it doesn't jive with some of the actual vote data.
It shows him at only 21% of the Jewish vote.
That's problematic because we can look in areas in Pennsylvania.
That's where where Jewish vote is particularly still concentrated in certain boards.
And we can see that he obviously did better.
We can look at places like Lakewood, New Jersey, in Ocean County, New Jersey.
That was an overwhelming support among Hasidic communities.
And by the way, New York.
New York could not possibly be this close in certain areas in the five boroughs, which we know are heavily Hasidic and heavily Jewish.
Well, they get the Hasidic.
We know vote.
Go Trump.
And they're proud of it.
It's more of the secular.
I don't know.
I say they'd identify as you.
Well, there was one left-wing, in Lakewood particularly, there's one left-wing rabbi that has been the remaining left-wing rabbi in that area.
I always forget what it's called when they...
Put out their endorsement.
It's like an endorsement, but it's not.
It's more like an instruction to go vote as a community.
I always forget what it's called, and I would probably mispronounce it anyway.
But it was a big shock on Saturday when my friend, who is Jewish, sent it to me from Jersey and said, Oh my God, it's for Trump.
And I'm like, no, it's not.
And he's like, yeah, it is.
This is the question.
Had you done any polls as to why the shift is?
Is the shift unique to Trump as an individual?
Was the shift as a result of the coalition?
Because the shift can't just be Republican.
Nobody's just shifting to Republican for the sake of the Democrats have been bad.
It's Trump as an individual.
It's Trump.
And it's Trumpism.
And what is it?
When we talked to both Muslims, because we did do oversampling of Arab voters in Michigan, and we also, you know, we've talked to, I don't, thousands of Jewish voters this election year, thousands of them.
We did an oversampling poll in one, and then of course, you know, they're about two and a half percent of every national poll we do.
So, it is the sue for peace message.
It is like, I know even...
Even the Arab voters that went for Trump.
By the way, look at Dearborn Heights.
I don't remember the guy's name.
There's no way the mayor who is Lebanese, the first Arab mayor in the city, the Lebanese population is 33% basically of the entire city's population.
To me, he comes out and endorses Trump.
There's just no way those precincts in Dearborn are not going to vote for Donald Trump.
You can't pick that up in a poll.
Kamala Harris won Minnesota.
I can just double check.
Yeah, she did.
But didn't do well in some of the Somali, didn't do as well in some of the Somali areas.
She won Minnesota because she did well with highly educated left-wing Scandinavian voters that settled in the ancestry of those Scandinavian descendants.
They're Finnish and Swedish in Minnesota more than they're Norwegian, like they are in Wisconsin.
I know it's crazy, but...
No, you know these details.
It's amazing.
I don't even know these demographics of Montreal this way.
NDG and holy cow.
And honestly, I think what you're going to see, like Catholics and French Catholics, speaking of, you know, we're in Canada, like look how close Maine was.
And obviously Maine too is not close.
And, you know, that's where this came down, what this came down to.
But let me just say, even among the Arab voters that we were speaking with.
He told us they were going for Trump.
And I think it was like 19% in 2020 against Joe Biden.
And it was routinely, routinely a third.
And sometimes we would get this noise where he would be in the 40s.
And I'm like, is this real?
And when we would talk to them, they would say, this came down to, I know he supports Israel more than Palestine.
I know he does.
But I also know he supports peace over war, period.
And they heard that message.
They heard it this time.
The bottom line is you can't argue with results or the absence of war.
And despite the amount of gaslighting, I remember what it was for the four years under Hitler.
And I remember what it is like now.
And there's violence.
And if you love Palestinians, even if you hate Israel, you still want peace there.
And if moving the...
What is it?
The embassy.
Not the embassy.
Is the embassy going to Jerusalem?
Yeah, he moved to Tel Aviv.
If it creates stability, even stability through strength, that's good for everybody.
That's right.
What is the...
I mean, I guess these are all massive takeaways, but what was the biggest, most shocking?
I can't...
I mean, the Latina vote is shocking.
The black male vote is quite shocking.
Was there anything, any one specific...
What's the word when it's sweet?
Was there one specific swing or a state that just blew your mind?
I'm telling people right now that what they should immediately be looking at, by the way, yes, Decision Desk has just called right in front of me.
I'm looking right at it.
Decision Desk has, in fact, called the state of Michigan.
Donald Trump, obviously, I mean, we knew he was going to win it.
He is the official winner.
He's at 301 right now, but when Arizona is called, which will be right very soon, when Arizona is called, they count.
For days.
That will put Donald Trump at 312 electoral votes, which was exactly my projection for this election.
Dude, I put 311, but it's only because I didn't realize Maine.
I told you.
I tweeted you.
I said, Dave, you forgot Maine.
I put it in the tweet.
I didn't even see it on my phone because I'm in Target again.
My fat fingers can't get Maine to switch.
So what's the deal with that?
Why are there two districts in Maine and two districts in New Mexico?
Nebraska. They just do this.
You know, they do this.
Republicans tried to change Nebraska this time, but, you know, I don't know what to call them.
Like, rhino, cowardly, traditional Republicans wouldn't do it.
And, you know, so Donald Trump actually would be at 313 electoral votes.
I will say this because of the question.
It's something that surprised me.
Is this.
How big the electoral mandate is.
Because. Because.
When you put together a coalition in politics.
It doesn't occur in a vacuum.
So if you appeal to one group, you're almost certainly at risk of shaving off another because they have conflicting interests, right?
So what does a suburban woman have in common with Waka Flocka Flame and urban black men and a Cuban 26-year-old woman we spoke to, not Puerto Rican 26-year-old woman in South Florida that we spoke to on the way out of voting?
What do they all have in common?
And it's because it's like you're going to speak to the issues of the black community.
You look beautiful.
You're going to speak to issues of the black community.
Sorry, my wife just walked in.
I thought you were talking to me.
Stop it.
Stop it.
But like you normally are.
She said you look beautiful.
You're normally at risk of like turning off, right?
So if you're going to do better in Oakland County in Michigan, you may turn off.
Voters in Macomb County because they're working class.
Oakland is not, right?
So how the hell did he keep this all together?
It is the biggest mandate we have seen, and I would argue it's probably the biggest since Reagan because Obama wasn't real.
You know, like, it wasn't real.
A lot of Republicans in 2008...
Knew that Obama was going to win.
And they kind of like were guilted.
You have to remember the silk stocking coalition Republicans had back then.
They were like guilted into voting for the first black president.
That's a lot of where those big numbers from crossover Obama won came from.
And then of course the Bush coalition was so bad and in shambles.
So, you know, I mean, it was a...
Good environment for him to run in, but you could see less than a year, two years later, that coalition collapsed.
It wasn't a real coalition.
It was a moment in history.
Let's elect the first black president.
You know, the Bushes, the Clintons, their times are over.
Let's get this new young black man in here, see what he can do.
He's promising hope and change.
But it wasn't something they believed in, and it was BS.
And it collapsed within, like I said, he got crushed in the midterms.
At a historic level, and that's because Democrats wound up winning seats in the House and Senate.
They had no business winning.
They were way overextended because it wasn't a real coalition.
This is different.
I cannot believe the diverse nature, age, race, geography, religion.
Look at how well he did with people who are secular voters.
Like, unbelievable.
Like, this is not your George Bush Republican Party.
Donald Trump dismantled the Roosevelt coalition that's been holding on and trying to define our politics for years.
He ripped it apart, shredded it up, reassembled it into MAGA, and it's the strongest thing I've ever seen.
And there's no—this is the future of the Republican Party.
They could go for New Jersey.
I'm not kidding.
They could go for Connecticut.
They could shred the Mid-Atlantic Blue Wall.
The Rust Belt's not even the Blue Wall anymore.
We can't even call it the Blue Wall anymore because now this is Trump's party.
You know, it's official.
So it's a Mid-Atlantic.
Oh, go ahead.
That's all right.
I got kids.
But I'll just finish.
Yeah, it's cool.
I got kids.
But I'm telling you that...
But the question is this.
Sorry, go ahead.
I'll end it with that.
The new blue wall is the mid-Atlantic blue wall.
And it's getting ready to go.
How much time do you have left?
Oh, I got time, brother.
I got time, right?
For Viva, we've got time.
I've got to get the local stuff.
I want to get the YouTube chat, the YouTube Rumble Rants before we leave and come on over to Rumble.
I'm going to take a vape.
Vape? You shouldn't do that.
That stuff is terrible.
Go ahead.
I promise you after this election, I will go get put in.
No, I can all gross you out afterwards.
I won't.
But then again, I say, how could you vape?
Now, where's my martini?
It's still too early for a martini.
We all have our vices.
No, vaping's no good.
It's not.
No, no, it's terrible.
You should not have anything foreign in your lungs.
Nothing. Period.
I totally agree.
I don't even try to lie about it.
We got equation.
Just want to give a huge thank you to Mr. Barris for his coverage last night.
He is one of the best pollsters in the business, and he helped me keep calm and sane all through the election process.
I think that's the most flattering possible comment you can get, is keeping people sane.
Because I was...
Out of my wits yesterday, just panicking.
2020 was a CIA coup.
All we have to do is prove it.
All we have to do is prove it.
The fight to push Marxism out of society has only just begun.
It will take years of pressure.
That is from Senile Sticks.
Viva, I always love your show.
I made a comment last night about a Georgia guy who was rambling.
I hope you didn't think it was about you.
That's from Not A Bot.
Don't worry.
Even if it were about me, I can recognize it as being true.
Thankful the election is over.
Now we can be unburned by what has been, never should have been, and never will be close to the chapter straight out of the Communist Manifesto.
That's from Jay Boz.
And then, Carol, any indication of hacking and manipulation, Rich?
Harris and the FBI are alleging Russian hackers.
Oh, it's pathetic.
Yeah. Harris hasn't given a concession speech yet, has she?
She has not.
And listen, you know, this is, I think, something else that we really should point to, we should talk about real quick, which is, just real quick, in response to this question, is that for a party that spoke four years about election denialism, it was very clear last night that she lost this election.
It's not close.
He crushed her.
Everybody knows it.
They know it.
Trump campaign knows it.
They knew it going into it, right?
They knew it with their internals.
Mark Halpern, I just want to give him a shout out.
Mark Halpern did something, and I've been in this business a while.
He just probably burned every social circle he's got.
He probably burned every bridge he's got into that world.
He's obviously going to be alright and accepted into the world of fair-minded people, but he doesn't come from that world.
He comes from the media nutcase world.
And he...
Took a huge risk to tell you all the truth this time in that podcast two-way.
And I think he did the country, and I think he did legitimate swing voters a service the way that he took a risk, man.
I'm telling you, no more Showtime for him, okay?
No more Circus for him.
No more MSNBC for him.
No more CNN for him.
They will blacklist him for what he did.
And he did it.
I gotta tell you, it's just...
Mad respect.
For those who don't know what he did, he mentioned the internals were not good?
He told the reality, him and his guests, day in and day out.
And by the way, same thing goes for Dan.
Is he the one that Bongino is complimenting on a regular basis on his show, saying he doesn't understand why he's still on CNN?
I don't know.
I don't watch fun, Gino, honestly.
I'm bad with names, but he is, and he plays these clips, and I see them too.
This guy on CNN, I'm like, oh, he must be like the resident Republican if they ever have him.
Oh, that's probably, what's his name?
Scott. That's probably Scott.
Scott is like, yeah, a Trump surrogate, a Republican surrogate, you know, and he's on the CNN panel.
But yeah, no, he does his own thing.
It's called Two Way, and he's probably, I think he's even did a show this morning.
But he has been telling people that...
This race, in truth, was not really 50-50.
It really was not, and it wasn't.
Dave, it wasn't.
It was not a 50. The most likely outcome I've been telling my listeners and my viewers for weeks and months was like Trump 312, even if Biden ran.
It was Trump 312.
And maybe Biden would have lost something else.
But also, I think he would have done better in Michigan.
I think he would have ran in Scranton area in Pennsylvania.
She lost counties now that Biden was able to arrest the trend against Democrats when he ran.
Monroe. Donald Trump took Monroe.
Northampton, of course.
That's where Joe Biden, Scranton Joe, right?
That's where he's supposedly from.
She got crushed in Bidentown.
What in my business we refer to as Bidentown in Pennsylvania.
And she got absolutely annihilated.
Joe Biden would have been a stronger candidate in Michigan and in Pennsylvania.
But that was always the true state of this race.
And Mark went out on a limb to say that...
We're going to be, after the media polls inflate her support, we will be back before the election, basically where Joe Biden was, and she might do worse.
And this may not be that close, and we could know by midnight.
He told exactly the truth.
And that was always the state of this race.
That was always the state of this race, right?
Marist be damned.
Barrett, what I'm going to do now, it's not going to change anything on our end.
We're going to go and vote with our feet and dollars.
Come on over to Rumble.
We're going to have the rest of this over here because the assets and the tools that we had this time around, I believe, actually also changed the results in that you had a free Twitter, you had a free Rumble, you had Bongino, and so we're going to actually thank those platforms.
So come on over to Rumble or Locals.
The link is up in the top there, and I'm just going to hit update YouTube.
Come on over.
We're going to get well over 10,000 on Rumble here.
Come on over now.
Even if you think you don't like it, Rumble, Viva Fry, or VivaBarnesLaw.locals.com.
But Barris, well, the people on YouTube, they all know where to find you, but where do they find you?
The best places on Locals, and I totally agree with you, the access to independent media this time without censors and without intimidation played a major role.
Elon Musk buying X, but I...
Love Locals.
You know it.
You have your Locals page.
I've loved this journey that we've had together with this company.
Locals is a community.
Folks are different than following me on like X. It's a community.
So check me out on Locals.
peoplespundit.locals.com peoplespundit.locals.com We're going live anyway.
We're just going to leave Commitube for now.
Okay. How much does one of these polls cost?
If you want to do it properly, what does it cost?
I'm going to disclose this right now.
It depends what kind of mode you're using.
What dictates the cost of a poll is a few things.
One, the sample size.
Typical sample size is what?
1,000, 1,400 people?
We have minimum sample sizes depending on the state.
And then nationally, our minimum sample size is 2,000, but our standard is actually around 3. So it depends on how large the sample size is, how long the interview takes to complete.
So length of interview, L-O-I, or duration, some people call it.
And then the mode of collection.
How are you going to reach people?
And I'm a mixed mode person.
You get people.
Using the mode that they most likely respond to.
There are some people who respond, and this is something that, you know, pollsters don't like to talk about because it plays with randomization, the principles of randomization a little bit, but it's just the reality.
Some people respond in much higher rates to live caller interview polls than others.
Some people respond to online panels or identify and opt in as an online panel participant a lot more than others.
We really, this year, It looks like text online is going to be the most accurate for us, which I'm happy because I love it.
Why? I can keep principles of randomization at heart because I'm randomly pulling a list from the voter file, and then I am just sending them out with my agents, and we're texting back and forth with people that can choose to either do it in an interview, back and forth, or they can say, I'll do this.
Give me the link and we'll provide them a link and they can take it online.
And we, I don't want to give too much stuff away, but not everyone has time to complete the interview all at once.
So we provide them a certain time to do that.
And that looks like that's going to be the best performing mode for us this year.
And that would be twice, by the way, because the online panel inflated Republican support in 22. Because a lot of those people didn't vote.
It's a midterm.
And I say they're going to, but they're not.
They just want a couple of bucks to take a survey.
So that's what really drives the cost, right?
Because you're pulling the data and you're paying for that.
And then, of course, you have to send out those text messages.
You've got to pay for each one of them.
Every time the agent goes back and forth with somebody, it's an additional cost, okay?
So that's why the length of the interview also comes into factor.
So for a national poll...
Like $3,000.
I'm going to say this because I want people to know this.
The public polling project used to be $6,000 because we're crowdfunded.
So $6,000 for the public polling project and we'll run a national poll.
It had to be increased this year because of new regulations with texting.
So we only increased to $8,000.
In truth, if you go out and pay a public pollster to do a national poll, it's going to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20,000 to $40,000, depending on the size of the survey.
A state poll can be a little bit less, ballparking it somewhere in the neighborhood of $15,000, but they're not cheap.
And this is a big problem, Dave, because none of them, I don't think any of them do.
There's a big difference between party registration and party identification.
When you're pulling from the voter file and you're tracking those people, you can append the responses to the voter file so you know who you're talking to.
That costs more money.
And I tried to explain this on Locals.
This is why you should sign up.
I showed people in a poll we did in Utah how people told us by party they were.
The sample itself by registration was like 50.2% Republican.
But when we asked them how did they identified, it was only about 41% Republican.
People don't identify the same way as the registration.
It's just the way it works.
Pollsters don't want to append to the voter file because it costs more money.
The media, the university pollsters, they're not doing that.
So when you hear Nate Cohen say, Republican participation declined this month, 16%, and I could understate Mr. Trump's support, right?
That was an honest thing, and I got to give it to Nate Cohen at the New York Times.
He's trying to survive and keep his job, so he showed how Harris could win with the caveat that, She's not going to.
I'm going to understate.
I mean, if you guys read that, you know what I'm talking about.
It was unbelievable.
But Nate is trying to keep his job.
If Nate appended to the voter file, then he would know a lot more about these people.
And in some ways, I think the New York Times does when they have the budget for it.
But hardly anybody else is doing this.
And it's like, you can't wait to compensate.
All right?
You cannot wait to compensate to fill in the blanks of things you don't know.
The more assumptions you make, the bigger the error rate could be.
And then I'm seeing some of these weights in these polls, which were just outrageous.
I don't, you know, some of them are trying to do the best job, so I won't name drop them.
But if you're coming back with a 60-40 female split, you cannot wait to fix that.
Go talk to more men.
If you're coming back with a sample like the New York Times did, which was like 19% black, go find more white people.
You can't make this kind of assumption.
It's too much.
And obviously that is because it has to reflect the statistical, the demographics of the country.
13.5% black.
That's correct.
And by the way, big, big projection we made this year.
It's history making.
It's very important.
We said this year, for the first time ever, Hispanic voters would be a larger share of the electorate.
We projected the electorate at 71% white, 12% Hispanic, 11% black, and that's exactly what it was.
And the first time in the history of modern presidents.
Save those numbers again.
71% white, 12% Hispanic, 11% black.
And that's what it was.
And for the first time in history, Hispanics were more.
The Hispanic population of America is bigger than the black population?
It is.
And I've been trying to say this realignment under Trump, not just Hispanics, non-whites in particular, but Hispanics, up until this election, they certainly flexed their muscles this time.
But they haven't been.
And they have a lot more political power than they know.
And this idea, and there are some on the right, Like the Ann Coulters of the world, who I find, honestly, I find this argument racist.
I'm just going to be honest.
Like, max out the white vote and the hell with the non-white vote.
It's a unicorn.
It's not going to happen.
Well, look at you now, Ann.
Look at you now, Ann.
I had on, well, Dexter Taylor, the guy from New York, black man incarcerated now for 10 years for building his own firearms.
And when we talk, like...
He rails against the so-called conservatives that he says that just ignore, denigrate, besmirch the cities and say like, okay, we'll just focus on the white vote and not pay attention to black conservatives.
That's not this Republican Party.
And it's amazing.
It is amazing to think that the idea of not, it's not even not appealing, but not regarding them as a valuable electorate is a historical mistake.
And it's disgusting.
They're citizens with the same rights to personhood, and we should value their opinions, and we should care about their needs.
I think this election, and it better teach something to the media, I doubt it will, but I know Republicans have learned some lessons.
But you cannot go through life ignoring...
The condition, the human condition of others.
And, you know, you have the left that was, you know, the hell with the working class, you know?
And we're going to win all these suburbanites who are wannabe elites.
We call them wannabe elites.
We're going to win all them.
We're going to put that coalition together with black and Hispanic voters we think will be subjugated.
Forever. And that's going to be our coalition.
And then you have some people on the Republican side who, by the way, they will be phased out now.
I mean, it's just very clear.
There's no room in the party for them.
They don't need them.
Trumpism doesn't need Ann Coulter.
She can go to whatever party is the party of white supremacy all she wants.
I don't give a damn.
Nobody. Who cares?
You cannot maximize the share of the white vote anymore.
The white vote is declining.
It will continue to decline.
It bumped up this time because black men didn't, black Democratic men who aren't ready to come over yet to Republicans did not vote for Kamala Harris.
They didn't vote.
So the white chair of the electorate ticked up a little bit from what most people projected.
It actually remained steady.
Most people just projected that it would continue to decline.
I did not.
I thought exactly what happened happened.
We're in the middle of a realignment.
They're not ready yet to vote Republican, but...
They're not voting for her.
And I talked to countless of these people.
You know, a 36-year-old black guy in Philadelphia, never voted before in his life.
He is one of those 2020-only voters.
He basically said, like, you know, they told me Trump was not a Nazi, man.
So, you know, and COVID was his fault.
So I filled the mail and balloted in 20. Now I'm not voting for these people.
Biden was senile.
They lied to me.
I thought that was a right-wing lie.
It's not.
Biden's senile.
My life sucks.
And they're trying to sell this woman to me.
The hell with that.
And they were knocking on his door and he's like, I am not voting.
Not voting.
It's amazing.
It's like the James O'Keefe put out a video where he goes undercover and asks someone at a voting station, he says Kamala's got in the bag and then he stops a black couple on the street and he's wearing a Kamala shirt and he says, you guys voting for Kamala?
And they go, hell no, we're voting with Trump.
And then it's like, you know, I said that what's amazing is that they were and that they were not shy to say it in Philly.
Yeah. By the way, he's above 20% of the vote in Philly.
It's just incredible.
What has it been historically?
Mitt Romney got like 11% or 9%.
I can check, actually, but it was 9%.
Yeah, 9%, I think.
I mean, this is unbelievably high for a Republican in Philly.
Unbelievably high.
Bender is great over in Local says, Barris, what do you have the margins in the remaining states being?
There's Arizona that's outstanding.
Yep. Arizona, I mean, look, we do these projections, and they're imperfect, for sure.
But it looks like Michigan's going to end up around...
It's ranging between 0.9 to 1.4.
It could end up being a little bit higher, a little bit lower.
But I actually think the vote that's out in Michigan, there was some late reported rolls that were getting thrown into the mix, so they're countering the urban areas.
But Wisconsin is just not going to budge all that much at all.
Milwaukee is done.
I mean, it may change here and there.
But it's a one-point flat win for Trump.
Pennsylvania is going to be a two-point win for Trump.
All right?
So there will be some in Philadelphia that come in.
That should shrink his lead by about two-tenths of a percentage point, maybe more.
So, you know, could he get one and a half?
Sure. I just think, you know, by rounding, it's going to be two points anyway.
And Michigan is going to be right around a point.
Right around a point.
Unbelievable. I'm going to read King of Biltong on the bottom.
Add some Biltong to your diet as a high-protein snack.
Oh, go ahead.
I missed one.
I'm sorry.
Okay, get yourself some at BiltongUSAT47 for 15% off through, oh, Trump47, through Friday to celebrate.
Go do it, people.
We've got Jacob Casper.
I can't read the black on red here.
It says...
Biltong is good.
Biltong is delicious.
I can't believe it.
I just tried it this week for the first time.
I love it.
The Piri Piri is my favorite, but try the Ghost.
It'll burn your face off.
I got chili.
That's mild.
Get the Ghost Wagyu.
It'll really burn your mouth off.
What were you about to say?
I forgot Arizona, which is going to be...
For a while, we had it at...
Trump by four points, but his margins that are coming in in these ballots were getting in the most, again, Dave, in the most Hispanic areas.
He's just killing it.
And then even in Apache...
It's almost like the Hispanics in a border state don't like what's going on with the border.
It's wild.
It's shocking, isn't it?
Yeah. And also, there is some real weakness in Apache for Harris, which, again, I don't think...
I think Biden...
During the primary, we flagged this.
Trump's highest percentage of the vote was coming from, like, Navajo areas.
What's the native population in Arizona?
It's substantial, right?
It's substantial for, you know, Arizona.
When you're talking about, like, you know, Asians are 2% or 3% in a state, you know, you have, like, that's not the case in Arizona.
Instead, it's, you know, it's Native Americans.
So, yeah, I mean, it's not huge, but, I mean, 4% altogether with, you know, most of them being other.
I mean, it's enough to like...
Show cracks in Apache, which is, you know, and of course, Navajo, of course, which borders Apache.
Trump was doing the best in the primary there.
Biden was only getting like 80%, which told, and the primary participation was really close, which told me that there are going to be a lot of Native Americans, and of course, in Apache bordering over, and there's Hispanic populations too, but not as much as like areas of Maricopa, But it was telling me that these were voters that were non-white voters.
Some of them are participating in a primary for Republicans for the first time ever.
And come the general election, Democrats are not going to enjoy the 70-30 split in Apache that they currently enjoy usually do.
And in fact, they're not.
It's 57.6 to 41.3.
It'll probably get a little bit bluer, but man, that is a significant underperformance for Kamala Harris or any Democrat.
Any Democrat.
And by the way...
Trump flipped Maricopa County because he did better in white, rich Scottsdale areas, plus doing better in Hispanic areas, especially along the border of Maricopa with Penault County.
So, I mean, this is like working class Hispanic.
No, it's amazing that it's the unifying effect of good policy.
A good border policy is as beneficial to the working class as it is to the upper class.
It's just beneficial to everybody.
And you're not driving one against another.
That's right.
And what you just said is so important, Dave.
That's why I've been arguing there is a potential with Trumpism to make – we always focus on the suburbs for 100 years almost in this country.
We've been like, the suburbs, you have to win the suburbs to win the White House.
You've got to win the suburbs.
You can make a rural urban coalition that basically fights to withdraw in the suburbs, and you're unifying the country.
When you close the rural-urban divide, it is better for society.
I couldn't understand how people didn't see that.
How the never-Trumpers couldn't see that.
Oh, it's a unicorn.
You're not going to win more black men.
You're not going to win more Hispanics.
It's right here in the data.
It's right here.
He did better in urban America.
I mean, Richard Nixon good.
You know?
I mean, this is crazy.
And that's the best thing for our country.
Best thing.
Someone had asked, and it's also my personally vested interest, Carrie Lake, Arizona.
I'm looking.
The numbers haven't changed since this morning.
50.4% for Gallego, 47.7% for Carrie, and they've counted or reported 60%.
I don't know what distance are left or how they count that.
Do you have any insight on that?
Yes. They count the most chunks of the early vote that come in first, and then they count the election day.
All right.
And then they count votes that are either arrived late in drop boxes or votes that people brought that are technically mail, but they drop them off to drop boxes or to the polling station on election day.
The first break that she won, she won by about 14 points.
Last night, another one came in.
She won a little bit more.
And those are the breaks that she would need to close the gap.
That race is going to tighten.
The question will be...
And it's up in the air.
And this is why I say it will close.
Carrie could pull this off.
But it's difficult to predict whether ultimately she will or not.
She's got to get those margins.
Know ifs, ands, or buts about it.
And also...
Usually some of the very last dumps get more liberal or get more democratic, but that may not be the case this time.
It may not because of the different way that people voted.
So when we poll people, Republicans definitely are the majority of those who say, I'm going to bring my mail in ballot.
To the polling station on election day, they go and draw B. Remember draw B, folks?
And they don't get counted for days.
So expect Maricopa to do 7, 7.30pm central time, local time, or I mean, not central, 7.30pm to 8pm local time dumps every day for the next four days.
Maricopa obviously is key, but she even outperformed in the dump that came in in Pima, which is, of course, Democratic.
She's at 36% right now in Pima.
She's got to get dumps that close that gap because Trump's at 39.3%.
That's where you've got to be to win Arizona statewide.
And of course, if she could take the lead in Maricopa, then that means she's got a much better chance of winning.
But she's got to take the lead.
Well, she can win.
The state without winning Maricopa, but it's like, keep your eyes on Maricopa, because if it's like tied, she's going to pull it off.
It's likely she could pull it off.
If she takes Maricopa, then that's a very good sign.
And it's not that, it's not impossible.
It's not.
It's a heavy lift, but it's not impossible.
I've been following it, and like, you know, I bought it.
She was at like 20 cents, and I thought that was undervalued.
And then she hit 30 yesterday, and I was like, oh, you know, hold on to 50-50.
Then she tanked to like 5 cents.
Because of the early vote separation.
And Gallego was up to $0.97.
Now she's back up to $0.26 and he's back down to $0.76.
And I'm looking at...
Okay, it's fun stuff.
It's just so you don't...
Your bet limits are limited on...
Nevada, by the way, too, Dave, let me just say, Nye County was like, oops, and they're a rural Republican county.
They were like...
Oops, looks like we got about 20-something thousand votes.
And they polled what Democrats polled.
Sam Brown took the lead.
They're at 43% reporting.
And they're not done yet.
So, listen.
Brown, who was polling very, very behind Donald Trump.
At the end of the day, of course he ran behind him, but he wasn't running as bad as he was polling.
So we've got to see what happens in Washoe.
If he closes the gap in Washoe and he does better with that vote that gets counted, that could obviously not could.
It will benefit him.
What's remaining in Clark is not that much.
He currently has a 5,576 vote lead with a couple, it looks like maybe 10,000 more ballots than Nye to come in, which he will not.
He's netting 7,000 out of 9,000.
So that's the margin in that county.
Okay, so total votes cast are 10,714, but he's netting about 6,300 out of 10,000.
So if they got 10,000 more, then it means he can get another chunk.
I don't know that the Democratic incumbent can sustain with the ballots that come in from Clark.
I don't know if that's going to be enough.
To put Rosen back over.
It's very close.
She may be cooked here, and Sam Brown may win this race, which is huge.
Huge! Because, of course, Democrats plucked off Wisconsin and plucked off Michigan in the middle of the night.
Okay, the level of detail is amazing.
I'm going to read a bunch from our local community.
ThinksNow says, thank you, Viva and Rich.
Red Team says, we can't wrestle our laurels.
She's still vice president.
Wouldn't be surprised if she tries to do...
What Trump wanted Pence to do the last time.
I don't think that that's legally available to her anymore, but I don't think they'll do it either.
We'll see.
Yeah, they passed the law.
Yeah, you can be sure that they're coming up with something.
No, I think they're just going to go for the easiest one would be an impeachment now that Trump has already been convicted, so they technically have the crime.
Raskin's going to try to preemptively not seat him.
That's what he's going to do.
I played that effing clip.
I hate that guy so much.
He's such a piece of garbage.
He's human.
He's Raskin.
He's a, he's a rat enveloped in human skin.
We got, I call him, well, we got rat face burger and rat skin, but, uh, Cora Horde don't, she's a, she's a member of our above average locals community now.
Fantastic. Uh, let me see what else we got here.
Michigan was just called for Trump.
We got Denise Antu.
Rue Stang.
Richard Barris was consistently focused on.
Thank you for the great work, along with our Robert Barnes, of course, absolutely.
Pasha Moyer says, now we can start.
God gave us a reprieve and a chance to make things better.
If not, all right, let's pray this happens.
Beautiful pictures from Pasha.
Gray 101, for populism to survive Trump- They should just go back and audit 2020, but I think they've destroyed enough evidence that they can't.
Sorry to hear that Barnes' back is injured.
Get well soon for the Gray 101.
We really missed him because he deserved to take a lap on the show last night, and we really missed him that he couldn't because he deserved to.
Listen, Barnes and I consistently told people, maybe one day that's going to happen, but this year is not going to be the year.
The Great Lakes states vote together.
Polls be damned.
We went over the history.
John Kerry was down eight points in Wisconsin in the Gallup poll going into Election Day.
He still won Wisconsin.
Why? Because the working class coalition survived Pennsylvania, survived Michigan, and Wisconsin votes with the other two states.
They vote.
Almost identical to each other, folks.
It's too many overlapping demographics to see these states split.
Will that change one day?
Maybe, because there's a growing Hispanic population in Pennsylvania.
By the way, Trump won the Hispanic vote in Michigan.
Outright won it.
60% of the vote.
Outright won it.
Statewide. And I knew that was going to happen because it was 54-44 in 2020.
Hispanics were much more Trumpy in Michigan.
But the Pennsylvania electorate has got more Hispanics in it, so maybe it changes.
But Dave, this was not the year.
And Barnes deserved to take that lap, and he didn't get it.
And I wish he was there.
We'll take the victory lap on Sunday, but it's amazing.
The results speak for themselves and validate and vindicate everything.
You cannot argue with results, but you can't argue when they are well justified in real time.
People can predict 3.11 like me.
It's mildly educated, but when you have the tools and the evidence that you had to do it, it is glorious because all of those pollsters are a bunch of scam artists, or at least the majority of them.
Buffalo Betsy says, we have to keep Trump and RFK in a bubble.
And Vance.
I'm terrified they'll try to hide between them.
Oh my god, me too.
I prayed for him.
Before I tried to get an hour of sleep last night, I just prayed.
I'm like, please, the country will break at the seams.
But they are so stupid and so dangerous.
I was biking yesterday and my phone kept on pinging.
And then I had this sensation like, oh God, it's something terrible.
And then everything played out within like a nanosecond.
But touch wood.
Okay, don't think evil.
Pray. I'll say pray.
I'm not even a religious man, but who knows?
I might be getting there.
Hold on, there was another one here.
Encryptus, you too played a part on this, Viva.
Thank you for everything you did and do.
You are an amazing influence in the country and you deserve more of the credit for this win.
Oh no, I just have a loud ass on Twitter is what I am.
Looks like, by the way, it looks like a race call because we get the thing.
A race call is coming in Arizona really quick.
But it should have been already, Dave.
Oh, so it's coming for Trump.
Yeah, it's coming.
Okay, well, now I'm looking at Gallego's number update on predicted.
Encryptus had another one.
Thank you, brother.
It is communities like this that made it all possible.
That's the bottom line.
Locals, Rumble, a free Twitter.
It had tools, it had eyeballs, and the courts had to respond accordingly because they couldn't run and hide like they did in 2020.
Without you and others like it, it wouldn't have happened.
Thank you very much, Encryptus.
Pasha Moyer.
The full armor of God is what?
Here we go.
Stand firm then with the belt of truth buckled around your waist with the...
Breastplate of righteousness in place, with your feet fitted, with the readiness that comes from the gospel of peace.
In addition to all of this, take up the shield of faith with which you can extinguish all the flaming arrows of the evil one.
Take the helmets of salvation and the sword of the spirit, which is the word of God.
That came from Passion Moira.
It's beautiful.
Boopsie! Viva!
As you read further in Ephesians 6, you see the armor of God is...
Oh, loin girth.
Okay, so we got that one up there.
Thank you, Boopsie.
And Susie C. Thank you.
Viva, RB, and Barris.
Norm1320. Thanks, guys.
All honest polling and information helped make 105% profit on my political betting last night.
Oh, nice.
See, I hit and miss because I still bet that Biden's going to resign.
And or that Kamala will be the 47th president.
And depending on how that happens, I could get like two 10 to 1s if it happens that Biden resigns.
If he's 25th and she becomes the president for two months, I think I still make it.
But those are the long shots that are just for fun.
And that is it.
Those are all that we had here.
I think, do we get any more?
So the other question is this now, Barris.
What do you do?
Like, what now?
Like, what are you next going to look at?
And what do you shift your attention to?
Well, that's a funny question because before last week, And people don't really know this.
I had some conversation with my local community about this.
But, you know, this is a thankless job.
And I really started to think that I pretty much had had it.
And I...
Look, I'll...
I'm fighting to get on sites like Real Clear Politics.
I broke through in 538.
I got on there because Nate Silver's gone now.
That piece of crap is still out there smearing me every day.
And I just thought, you know, why do I do this?
It's a thankless job.
I think there's other things.
I'm 43 years old.
I just turned 43. And there's other things that I'd rather do.
And, you know, I'm not a Bible thumper by any means, and I'm not a perfect man.
I have, you know, skeletons like everybody else, and I've done a lot of dumb things in my life I wish I could take back.
But I certainly am spiritual.
And I'll just share this with you.
Last week, I had a dream.
And I was like, you know, I care about being right more than anything, but of course I want someone to win.
I have my own views like everybody else does, and I think pollsters should stop pretending that they don't.
They should be honest with the consumers about who they are and what they believe.
I think they should be transparent like that.
But I care about being right more than anything else, and I am fairly certain this was not a dream.
I told my wife, I woke up, it was so vivid.
And basically, It was like a wrestle with God moment where now I'm not allowed to change what I'm doing.
If this is the outcome, I told him that I would stick with it and I would do it because this is the beginning and there's a lot of work to come.
So now I'm here.
I'm here for the whatever until he tells me I'm removed from his servitude because he delivered it.
He did.
I think when Trump got up there last night and said, God saved me from that bullet, I really feel like it was like, I don't know.
It was a confirmation to me that I don't want to sound crazy.
I'm just saying I'm fairly certain the Lord spoke to me in a dream.
And now I have to do this.
So I think the work begins because they don't stop.
We have to make sure that they understand, and I'm going to try to do this to the best of my ability.
I have no confidence in their ability to conduct introspection.
I'm talking about the media, the state, all of them.
They've been defeated badly.
I mean, this is the biggest political comeback ever in human history, and it's the biggest middle finger to any status quo or ruling class like we have ever seen, folks.
This is way beyond...
Grover Cleveland, way beyond what happened.
Teddy Roosevelt, even if he would have pulled it off, it still wouldn't have been like this.
Teddy Roosevelt, yeah, they did try to kill him, but they didn't try to lock him up.
They didn't try to lock up his family.
They didn't try to destroy his business.
They didn't try to imprison his supporters.
There's a whole new ballgame.
And I think that they're not going to just roll over.
So there's a lot of work to do.
But in the meantime, too, the only way to truly deal with that is to keep building coalition.
And New Jersey and Connecticut are next, with New York on the peripheral, shoring up areas in Pennsylvania, shoring up areas in Michigan.
So we're not talking about one and one and a half and two-point margins.
You have to tell the state who's the boss.
They have to be told.
The ruling class, they need to be put in their place.
And I do that, I say that, not because of my own personal political views, but because of what I said before.
The human condition of others matters.
And you cannot have a stable country when you ignore half, more than half, clearly a majority, of the grievances of your countrymen and your countrywomen.
The other people in your nation matter.
And there's a segment, a ruling class in this country, supported by a bunch of wannabes who want a place among them, but will never get it.
And I hope all of you in Loudoun County hear what I'm saying.
You will never be one of them.
You are a useful idiot.
They will use you.
That's all.
And you cannot ignore the very real grievances of other people around the country because your world is okay.
Because you live in a gated community.
Because you survive off of government extravagance and recklessness.
I mean, the truth is, look at that jobs report.
The Friday before the election was the worst jobs report we've ever had released before an election.
If you work in government, you're alright.
And if you work in the healthcare, if you work for Big Pharma, you're okay.
If you're anywhere else but there in the military-industrial complex, your life sucks.
Or it's getting worse.
So it's Wall Street, DC, the DC burbs, the defense industry, and everybody else is left out, Dave.
And that's not the makings of a stable society.
So these people, believe me, have not learned their lesson yet.
The work is not done.
And if we don't fix this...
The rural-urban divide is starting to be narrowed and brought together.
And that's a good sign.
But we're not there yet.
And if we don't get there and we let these people have their way, they're going to destroy us.
They're going to destroy us from within.
And that's what we do next.
That's it.
That's what we focus on next.
And by the way, if you're a Republican and you're happy about this win, you better make a plan to get everything done within the first two years.
Run and operate as if you expect to lose one or two of the chambers of Congress in the midterms and expect that you will have to replace probably a Supreme Court justice.
You will have to get judiciary picks through.
If you want immigration reform, that stuff's got to get done.
If you want to make sure that you don't get an average of $12,500 tax increase because the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is going to sunset, you've got to get that done.
There's a lot of work to do.
Viva, there's a lot of work to do.
And by the way, Laura reminded me last night.
Oh my God.
Now we're not going to have to write a $40,000 larger check to the IRS this year.
Amen, baby!
Amen! I love that I could hear in the background.
Because we can sit in there watching this bank account.
Because when you own a business, you know how it is.
You've got to put aside your tax bill for the end of the year.
And I'm looking at this like...
You know what I could do with my kids?
Got to pay quarterly installments that are outrageous.
That's what you do.
I wanted to actually just tally how much in a year actually proportionally went to Ukraine.
And I say that without commentating.
I don't know.
What percentage of the budget was allocated for aid to Ukraine?
And then just bring that down to the personal income tax level.
Buffalo Betsy says, Agree Barris' work is invaluable.
Tadaka says, Hey Rich, do you think Rodgers in Michigan still has a chance?
I think we talked about that.
Spinnaker, what are Rich's final predictions for the Senate?
Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada.
I think we talked about that.
Joe Mazcu, Rich, I'm still watching Joe Kent's district WA3.
He needs 58% of what's left to win.
I've got my fingers crossed for him.
Does he have a chance?
He does, but look, this is the way Republicans kind of voted differently this time.
They embraced it.
Look what happened with Dan Newhouse.
He was running down.
All those votes that are coming in went his way, broke his way.
Joe Kent, they went his way too, but he needs to close a bigger gap, and he has less of the vote in.
He needs that margin, not one or two off.
He needs...
Every bit.
If I was him, I would rather see a 60-40 split because, you know, we're estimating what's outstanding.
And with, like, 21% outstanding, it really could be that there's, like, a few thousand or 1,500, give or take, more or less than we thought.
If it was more, it would be great for him, but it may not be.
So I would rather see a 60-40 split for Joe Ken.
I mean, it's...
I mean, again...
I think Republicans too have to, like, Joe Kent should have won that race.
Carrie Lake should never be in the position that she's in.
They gave millions of dollars to fat loser Larry Hogan in Maryland for a Senate race he had never had a prayer of winning.
This leadership, talking about what's got to be done next, John Thune is not new leadership.
If Mitch McConnell leads and it goes to John Thune, it's not going to change anything.
Steve Daines, he did a better job at the National Republican Senatorial Committee than others have done before him, but it's still surrounded by this class of consultant and pollster losers who have no idea what they're doing.
They really believe Larry Hogan had a chance there.
They gave nothing to Kerry Lake and Sam Brown.
Oh no, they gave some to Sam Brown.
They gave nothing to Kerry Lake.
This is, that's all got to get, that's all got to change.
Because these are races, they should have won.
Easily. For whatever it's worth, I'm just tracking on predicted, Carrie Lake is now up to 42 cents.
She's up 32 cents on the day.
Yeah, she does.
Because Trump's coming in hard, and it's like, that early vote.
Was the biggest disparity between Lake and Trump that we're going to see, that first drop of early vote.
Everything else is going to be much more partisan, and it's going to be like, you know, they're not going to be separated by seven points.
They're going to be separated by two or three.
So the more Trump does, the better he performs, the stronger the coattails will be for her.
Schnookum says, how tough will it be for Harris to preside over the electoral vote submission?
She'll cry.
Lily in America says, Viva, it's a great day for me coming to work with two liberal bosses and snickering under my breath.
Oh, this one's good.
Ithaca37Cato, hey, do you think you could have Alan Lichtman on?
I'm sure you'll want to brag about his prediction.
What a friggin' loser.
There was a video going around, and I met Alan Lichtman years ago, and I asked him a simple question.
Okay, and this was many years ago.
Why do you claim to have correctly predicted every election since 1988 or whatever it is that he complained?
Because you did not.
You did not predict that Al Gore would lose.
You predicted Al Gore would win, right?
And then I wanted to get into some details.
We didn't even get a chance.
He started yelling at me.
It was like a how dare you moment because I was just, you know, still young, a student, you know?
And it was...
It's obvious to me, even at that time, and it's part of the reason.
I mean, it's one of the many things that rolled up in my head that made me want to do this and do it better than them because his excuse once upon a time was, well, Gore won the popular vote.
Okay, well, dummy, we don't elect presidents by the popular vote.
So your model is just inherently flawed, if that's the case.
No, his model is just, you know, I'll make a number of predictions and then pretend I didn't make the...
He predicted Biden was going to win, and then he withdrew.
It was like, oh, well, now that's different now.
I have to take...
He already lost with 2024 because he predicted Joe Biden.
He went on MSNBC, CNBC, CNN, anyone who would talk to him for a month and said, if you remove Joe Biden, you will lose this election because you're getting rid of the incumbent key, right?
Then, when they did it, he all of a sudden reversed himself.
Oh no, Kamala's going to win this thing.
Wow. His list of variables is entirely subjective.
Totally subjective!
No, no, it's like, because I go through it, and the way he tinkered with it showed bad judgment.
It's subjective, but it's still objectively wrong answers in there for at least some of the criteria that he measured.
And Seltzer mindset, baby.
You see what you want to see.
Textrick says, Woohoo for Barrett's decision.
You're the best.
Made my night.
Truly memorable.
Thank you.
I was watching you until about two in the morning yesterday.
Pasha Moyer says, For Rich, there's a vast corpus of documented cases.
And Sammy says, Oh my god!
But it didn't even seem to translate to the polls.
Do you think it is due to despair upstate has because he can never vote out the city?
Do you see any changes moving toward red Duchess?
Actually, Yeah, no, actually, he did really well for a Republican in some of those areas.
Look at Kings County.
Guys, in 2020, he got like 12% of the vote.
He got 25% in Kings County.
In Richmond, he won 62%.
He won Suffolk, which we expected, but it expanded.
He took Nassau.
Excuse me, let me go back here.
I'm on the wrong thing.
Hold on one second.
I'm looking at the wrong thing.
One minute.
All right.
The Bronx, 27%.
Queens, 38%.
These things are trending in Republicans' direction.
And his King's number is higher.
I knew it was higher.
It's 29%.
He did incredible for a Republican in the five boroughs.
It has to just keep...
These things, that kind of a margin, guys.
And Suffolk, he won by 55.5 to 44.5.
But Nassau, it was like...
49.49 last time.
It's 52.5 to 47.6.
He got like a combined 14% across the five boroughs last time, guys.
That was a doubling of support in the five boroughs.
I mean, so that's a big deal.
That's a big movement.
It's tough.
I mean, look at how close he got it within 12 points.
You know, and it's a very Democratic state.
It's a D plus 30 state.
So to outperform by 18 points, you know, the Democratic partisan lean is something.
That's something.
Give it time, guys.
These things take time.
That's why assault New Jersey and Connecticut first.
And especially since New Jersey is overlapping media markets in the tri-state area.
Come on now.
Come on now.
Flip Bergen.
Work on the five boroughs.
All at the same time, baby!
I presume every administration needs a reliable, trustworthy internal pollster?
Me too.
No, you are simply amazing.
Period. It's not just because I like you.
It's because I like your methods and your...
It's fantastic.
Appreciate that.
There was one last question I had.
Hold on.
It had to do with...
Okay, going into election day.
I'm going to forget what it was.
It doesn't matter.
Everybody knows where to find you over on Locals, but I'm going to put everything there, but what's your Locals?
It's the Peoples Pundit?
JustPeoplesPundit.locals.com.
No, the.
JustPeoplesPundit.locals.com.
I'm going to put it all up there.
You're on Twitter?
I am.
At peoples underscore pundit because somebody took the handle.
I tried to get Twitter to get rid of it, but they won't.
So it's at peoples underscore pundit.
And on truth, it's at peoples pundit.
So it is on Getter as well.
But if you go to locals, you'll even be able to check out our polls.
You'll see the public polling project.
I owe them a lot because things happen really quick.
But we'll give you all of those deep dive internals.
I mean, we've given a lot.
But North Carolina, I believe we still owe them.
Oh man, that was really close.
We had it 51.1 to 47.1.
It's 51.1 to 47.7.
So we understated Harris by six tenths of a point and nailed Trump.
Give me a dump, bro!
It's like...
You think it's all my soul to Memphis to get that close?
No, it's like a hole in one.
People can relate to how good it must feel.
It's happening.
It's unbelievable.
That's why I said to the Lord, I just want to quit while you're ahead.
Before you have this huge mess, get out before you turn into Ann Seltzer.
But he's not going to let me.
The thing is, you will never turn into the people who defy their own methodology.
That's true.
Now I remember what it was.
I was going to tell you.
If I may, send me your info.
I'm going to give it to Bill Tong, who can send you some stuff.
And this is it.
I'm going to read a few more here.
We are in the room with Eric Conley and Mark Robert.
Hated to see you leave, but glad that the all-knowing rich joined in.
Great night, says ADM Rum 12. Connecticut has done nothing but bitch and moan about Biden, about the rise in gas and food.
You name it nonstop, but they refuse to vote outside the party.
And then Arkansas Crime Attorney.
We only have four years.
Is J.D. and Vivek the next MAGA candidates?
We'll see what they can do in the meantime.
We'll see what happens, but yeah, I think J.D. is going to be president of the United States.
Great guy, by the way.
No J.D. Great guy.
All right, legit good guy.
I mean, one of the good eggs in this, like, you know, most of the politicians I meet, guys, are pieces of trash.
I don't like most of them.
I don't care if they're Republicans, Democrats.
I just don't like most of them.
JD is a good egg.
He's a true American story.
My daughter loves him.
And he's smart, honest, and polite in his...
I'm not as polite as him.
Everyone can learn a lot from watching JD.
He's amazing.
He's truly amazing.
He's a good man.
Richard, I'm going to do a locals after party, so I won't keep you for that, but thank you immensely.
And Godspeed, and yes, you follow your mission because it has chosen you.
Thank you, my friend.
Thank you.
We'll talk soon.
All the best, buddy.
Bye, guys.
Have a good one.
I have to figure out how to do this.
I'm going to kick you from the stream.
Have I never kicked someone from the stream?
Here, hold on.
No. This, I go to guest?
No. I can do it.
Oh, no.
It's down here.
It's down here.
I'm kicking you.
Have a good day.
Later. Yeah, I have not actually ever kicked someone.
I don't like the word kick.
Shut the screen.
Close the screen.
Rich is amazing.
Okay, so let's...
By the way, now...
We're going to head on over to vivabarneslaw.locals.com.
Rumble. Here's the link.
Let me read a few more of the crumble rant and get in with the chat.
So I went with my kid this morning.
We had our morning, this morning's homeschooling was taking pictures of iguanas in the park.
And we learned that the big orange iguanas, iguanas will turn orange and reddish as they approach mating season and as their body temperature warms.
So we learned that this morning and caught some great photographs as well.
Okay, so hold on.
Arkansas crime attorney, you want to talk about getting to work with the liberal tiers today?
I am an attorney and 80 plus percent of them are crying liberals today.
They don't understand they've been brainwashed.
We were in the room with Hunley.
Okay, got that.
Arkansas, we're going down here.
Trump is the first president to win three terms since FDR.
What happened to 25 million votes Biden got in 2020?
I'm going to do the chart with the Republican votes as well because someone did say, yeah, well, Trump picked up a lot in 2020 as well.
Trump's pickup in 2020 was relatively commensurate with where he's at in 2024.
But also, it's not to say that there might have been some like, you know, People, uh, ballot harvesting for Republicans as well.
It's just what happens when you make it easy, but they did it in the order of 15 million, 25% more than the prior year, the prior election cycle on the next election cycle.
Dr. That's not Dr. Drew.
That says the brew that do said I watched rich last night because I wanted granular analysis without the fluff was not this way.
He's I want to say an idiot savant, but he's not an idiot savant because he's easy.
It's not that that intellectual acumen.
Create some sort of personal...
What's the word?
Oh, jeez.
When you have a weakness.
Well, you know what I mean?
Idiot savants are wickedly intelligent, but they have lacking social skills.
Rich is just a wicked smart, wicked methodological, wicked methodology, and vindicated is the most important.
I can send Richard Thompson as king of Biltong, so do it.
I'll get his address, Anton, and I'll get that to you afterwards.
And now, let us go over to VivaBangeLaw.locals.com Kamala has called Trump to concede.
Don't make me pee.
I got a liquid death in me.
Oh, she is going to...
I missed Trump's speech last night.
I've got to go watch that.
I've got to go watch...
Leticia McJames and her persecution.
See what they're going to do with that.
Text Rick says, I love Rick's laugh.
Makes me roll on the floor.
Then we got Ithaca.
So how do we support Barris polling programs through supporting his community?
I'm going to put the links up there because we need to watch them.
Okay, so what we're going to do now, Rumble, if you're so inclined to come over to vivabarneslaw.locals.com, it's going to be the supporters only.
What am I giving the link in Locals for?
You guys are there already.
You don't need the link.
Hold on.
Did I give the Rumble link in Locals?
I mean to give the Locals link in Rumble.
TDS victims can be very violent.
I wouldn't pick fights with anybody.
This is banned from YouTube.
I think you're right.
I wouldn't pick fights with people in person right now.
I will needle family members and cousins and relatives.
I'll tell you a story.
Hold on.
Dog wants out.
Oh, son of a gun.
I have one...
I have one family friend.
Let's call him a family friend.
Let's call Xi a family friend because we don't want to identify the gender.
No one's ever going to...
Got a family friend.
Everybody's taken to social media to post how Hitler's been elected.
It's just a terrible story.
And this person says, we must hunker down and take care of our neighbors.
And I'm like, bitch, I know that you don't like your neighbors.
I know, as a matter of fact, that you do not like your neighbor.
And you get on your fucking social media high horse and talk about taking...
You cross the street to avoid your neighbor.
You got a fence so you don't have to see your neighbor.
Bunch of...
Virtue signaling buffoons is what they are.
Okay, what else?
Today should be declared a national holiday.
I'm going to have to pee as I go over to locals because I...
Still not banned here.
Says, wow, didn't realize even an assumption into office counts after two years, too.
Okay, I don't know what that means.
What a weak woman.
She couldn't even give a concession speech last night, TZ Burton.
That's one of the topics we're going to talk about over on VivaBarnesLaw.locals.com.
Is Jack Smith allegedly dropping the case?
Anyhow, all that to say, locals, rumble, sorry.
I'm going to be on with Richard Surrett this afternoon.
Booyah! Holy cows, I got a lot of flipping text messages.
Let me know if you're available.
Yup, comma, good for 418, period.
See you then.
I'm going to be on with Richard Surrett.
Oh, we're going to have a fun conversation.
Did you get my tipped question on locals?
Stephen Britton, hold on one second.
Bill Brown's got one in there.
USA Now.
Encryptus. Hold on.
Did I miss it?
Because I thought I got all of them.
Stephen Britton.
Susie Cece.
Stephen Britton.
How does Barris ensure his sample is random?
What is his methodology?
We talked about that, for sure.
Stephen, I hope we got to that.
Maybe that text was from a long...
That text was from, yeah, about a half an hour ago.
Hope we got to it.
Um. Thank you.
Oakley Doakley.
Rumble, come on over to Locals.
If you don't, I'm going to be on Unusual Suspects tomorrow.
It's going to be a fun one.
We will not be crying.
Hold on one second.
Hello? Yes.
Thanks. Let me just text my wife.
Someone's coming through the gate, question mark?
Okay. Now.
That is it.
That is it.
That is all.
Okay. Okay.
Okay. Okay.
So I'll see you tomorrow.
See you this afternoon.
I'll try to put out a video.
Yeah, the unusual.
So I'm in a Target, Little Rock Attorney.
I'm in a Target with my daughter and someone comes up to me and is like, I know you from the internet.
I was like, oh, thank you.
He's like, you're the guy from The Unusual Suspects.
It's so stupid.
First of all, it's fantastic.
And I wasn't wearing my own merch.
The show is doing very, very well.
It's actually a beautiful thing to watch.
Let me see what they're at now in terms of subscribers.
They were at 77,000.
And I said, guys, you go for 100,000 fast.
So I'll be there tomorrow.
What I'm going to do is I'm going to go find Leticia James' statement.
I want to see Donald Trump's speech.
And I want to hear...
Let's see if she's cackling.
It was a great race.
I'm really happy I lost to Hitler.
And I'm conceding and wishing him a great four years of...
How do you go...
You... Justin...
We're talking about it on Locals.
I'm not getting into it here.
Justin Trudeau congratulating...
Just... You know who I'm talking about.
Donald Trump.
Okay. Come on over, people.
Viva bronze law.
Dot Locals dot com.
I don't think she cares, says the wants chicken.
New Yorker Tina Letizia James says Trump's going to prison.
No, she didn't.
How is McCormick looking?
Will he hold?
I think we talked about that.
Avoiding the one with the Harris sign in the back.
Pelosi says she will impeach.
It's not possible she said that.
Okay, we're going to go over to Locals and look at this in real time, people.
Thank you all for being here.
Godspeed, people, and we'll enjoy the day because it is, in fact, it's a good day.
▲
Export Selection