The Trish Regan Show examines a market sell-off driven by Trump's tariffs, which the host argues address unfair trade deficits despite short-term volatility. The episode highlights DOGE's claims of 5.5 million undocumented immigrants exploiting Social Security systems for benefits and voter registration, while noting uncertainty over whether these figures involve actual SSNs or taxpayer IDs. Discussions cover Elon Musk's potential exit after 130 days, New York Governor Kathy Hochul's alleged obstruction of ICE data access, and Mayor Eric Adams' shift toward independent politics following his indictment. Ultimately, the host defends the administration's strategy against critics like Larry Summers, asserting that record-low Democratic approval ratings signal long-term American economic resilience rather than imminent collapse. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, Qwen/Qwen3-ForcedAligner-0.6B, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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Social Security Fraud Narrative00:14:58
Okay, Liberation Day came and went and look at what we've got a huge sell-off.
But I'm just going to say, did you really expect anything else?
I know the markets were doing fine just yesterday, but the reality is it's tariffs, right?
And that, as we've discussed, can have some near-term implications.
I mean, I'm looking at this sell-off today and I'm like, man, oh, man.
Once again, you get the media going crazy.
It's feeding into their narrative.
So you know something's up.
We're going to get to the truth behind all these numbers that you're looking at now.
I'm going to tell you why I bought today.
It is a gamble by the president for sure.
But I think it's a gamble that's going to pay off, as he most definitely does.
Here he is right outside the White House just moments ago speaking about what just went down.
We're going to get to all of this.
We have a big show today, a very, very, very big show.
But first, to the president.
I think it's going very well.
It was an operation, like when a patient gets operated on, and it's a big thing.
I said this would exactly be the way it is.
six or seven trillion dollars coming into our country and we've never seen anything like it.
The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom, and the rest of the world wants to see is there any way they can make a deal.
They've taken advantage of us for many, many years.
For many years we've been at the wrong side of the ball and I'll tell you what, I think it's going to be unbelievable.
The thing that people have to talk about, we're up almost to seven trillion dollars of investment coming into our country.
Please, and you'll see how it's going to turn out.
Our country's going to boom, all right.
So he says it's going to all work out in the end.
We're going to talk about all of that, guys again big, big show coming up today.
You know what else is really important right now.
Think about what's going on with Elon Musk right, Elon Musk and what he has discovered over at Social Security.
Here's one of his DOGE folks who's the ceo of a big tech company, himself speaking on FOX about this very issue.
That's a jaw dropping number.
Where did all those people come from?
Well, it made my jaw drop too when I saw it.
You know, we were in Social Security looking for fraud, waste, and abuse.
And to do that, we actually looked at the enumeration system, the system by which people get numbers in America.
And we found that there were just about five plus million of them that came to the country as illegals, were giving various forms of parole or allowed in the country, and they got through an automatic system Social Security numbers.
So they get into our benefit systems.
And we tracked that through and found that they were on the benefit programs.
And just because we were curious, we then looked to see if they were on the voter rolls.
And we found in a handful of cooperative states that there were thousands of them on the voter rolls and that many of them had voted.
That's crazy because you cannot vote in a federal election, but I think in certain local elections you can.
But, you know, once you get a social security number, that helps you do a lot of stuff.
I know, Antonio, part of this started with a program from, I think, 2017 that got started where if people came into the country, And they were authorized to work, they would automatically give them a number.
But, you know, Elon was talking a little bit about how 400,000 Social Security numbers were stolen.
It was one person.
What can you tell us about that?
You know, that's an ongoing investigation, so I don't know how much I can tell you, but we did find as we looked through the programs, a particular employee that had actually sent themselves social security numbers through their email for reasons we don't understand, but clearly nefarious.
Oh, my gosh.
Yeah.
I mean, so that's actually really, really, really alarming.
And I think we have to dig into that, guys.
I think that's pretty important, even on a day when we've got the sell-off, which we will talk about as well.
But come on.
I mean, what exactly was going on?
They're at Social Security.
I think that we deserve some more answers on this.
Let me go to what they found here.
So this is an example of what we saw.
Gracias alleged that they had identified and reported undocumented immigrants improperly receiving Social Security and registering to vote.
This is allegations.
This is according to an ABC News report that ABC has not been able to verify.
But according to Garcias, they found defaults in the system, defaults in the system that were applying benefits.
Unbelievable, right?
To a massive number of people, they found 1.3 of them undocumented immigrants already on Medicaid as an example.
Now, I'm wondering to what extent this may have been taxpayer ID numbers that they hand out.
They're referring to these as social security numbers.
You know, taxpayer ID numbers, they certainly would be part of this.
But again, let's go back and listen to what he's saying here.
Very, very carefully.
This is a massive discovery by Doge.
They revealed it over the weekend, right, in Wisconsin.
And I just want to double down and really listen carefully to what Garcia is saying.
That's a jaw dropping number.
Where did all those people come from?
Well, it made my jaw drop too when I saw it.
You know, we were in Social Security looking for fraud, waste, and abuse.
And to do that, we actually looked at the enumeration system, the system by which people get numbers in America.
And we found that there were just about five plus million of them.
That came to the country as illegals, were given various forms of parole or allowed in the country, and they got through an automatic system, social security numbers, so they get into our benefit systems.
And we tracked that through and found that they were on the benefit programs.
And just because we were curious, we then looked to see if they were on the voter rolls.
And we found in a handful of cooperative states that there were thousands of them on the voter rolls and that many of them had voted.
That's crazy because you cannot vote in a federal election, but I think in certain local elections you can.
My gosh.
All right.
So I just wanted to get that out there again because, and we'll get to the markets and I have a lot to say on the markets, but I'm just really struck by this.
So what I'm not able yet to discern, and I'm completely transparent with you guys in terms of what I know and what I don't know, is whether is whether Doge is referring to taxpayer ID numbers, which yes, they do give to a lot of migrants, and yes, a lot of migrants get a lot of benefits.
Tied to those, perhaps not as much as you would get under Social Security, but you do get certain benefits vis-a-vis Medicaid, et cetera, or whether they're talking about actual Social Security numbers.
They seem to be talking about actual Social Security numbers.
When they were up on the stage and they were showing the charts, and that was like the chart that said everything, you saw this massive increase in the number of people that were getting these.
Alleged social security numbers and if they are allowing them to vote, well then that's a whole other thing.
Right?
That is an unbelievable story.
We do know that there is a bill on the table right now in New York to allow for 800 000 people who are in the country illegally to be able to vote.
They have, for example, the DMV all set up so that you can get a license, etc.
And apparently you go in and then they they ask you if you want to register to vote.
The idea would be that they would vote in the local elections, not in actually federal elections, but still you know you're looking at that and saying hey, Now, wait a second.
Like, how is this right?
What are we actually trying to encourage here?
And so I think that this is perhaps the most underreported story right now.
Granted, I get that the market's getting all the headlines, but this is a big deal.
And you know what's interesting to me as well?
It's coming at a time when they seem to be pushing Elon out.
Oh, okay.
Before you say that's fake news, fake news, there was apparently this meeting and Donald Trump somehow indicated to people in the room that basically Elon wasn't long for this world in terms of being at the sort of center of the universe, if you would, in MAGA.
And this is something that I think some people have certainly lobbied for.
We played the Steve Bannon clip yesterday.
Steve is like, who's this guy?
You know, he just showed up.
Johnny come lately.
How dare he steal all the thunder from MAGA?
There are people that really have been through blood, sweat, and tears over the last several decades championing these causes.
Who is he to just show up and suddenly be here and do this?
Well, that's that's fine.
Like, that's understandable.
I get where Steve's coming from.
I think he's a little suspicious, if you would, of the new money, so to speak, that's coming in and what their values are vis-a-vis what his MAGA values are and what the values of the party are.
But I'm just going to point to this.
So first you have the political story.
Now you have the Bloomberg story.
And again, they're saying he's going to be out pretty darn soon.
So JD Vance was asked about this today on Fox.
Let's go to the clip and see how JD kind of dances around this.
Now, I do want to point out one thing.
Elon was never going to be there forever.
I mean, we're lucky every single day we can get him, frankly, really and truly.
I mean, he's done a tremendous, tremendous amount and may have uncovered a massive story here in terms of these social security numbers and alleged fraud.
But what JD says is very interesting.
And I want to just preface this by pointing out that he did say that he would leave in a certain amount of time, right?
He's not going to be there forever.
It was 130 days, which would bring us right until the end of May.
But nonetheless, it's still a little strange that they're trying to push them out the door so fast.
And you know, the mainstream media is in on that one.
They love the idea of Elon getting kicked to the curb because it makes Trump look bad, Elon look bad, et cetera, et cetera.
Here we go.
Well, first of all, that report I saw was total fake news.
Elon came in and we said, We need you to make government more efficient.
We need you to shrink the incredible, vast bureaucracy that thwarts the will of the American people, but also costs way too much money.
And we said, That's going to take about six months.
And that's what Elon signed up for.
But of course, he's going to continue to be an advisor.
And by the way, The work of Doge is not even close to done.
The work of Elon is not even close to done.
You look at all of the fraudulent grants that they found.
You look at people who are 150 years old, who are fraudulently collecting Social Security payments.
You see our Social Security system 40% of the people who are calling in are actually committing fraud.
That means the 60% who need their Social Security checks are waiting in line.
Doge has got a lot of work to do.
And yeah, that work's going to continue after Elon leaves.
But fundamentally, Elon is going to remain a friend and an advisor of both me and the president, and he's done a lot of good things.
People don't realize how vast and uncontrolled the bureaucracy was.
We've started to chip away at it, but there's a lot of work to do.
It's not going to happen all in six months.
It's going to take a long and committed effort.
Yeah.
So that kind of sounds to me like he's like, all right, you know, it's eventually coming to the end.
You can say it's fake news, but it's eventually coming to the end.
Look, I don't know.
Here's what I'm going to say.
Elon has done a tremendous amount and Elon could do a tremendous amount more.
I mean, Elon's got a company to run.
Tesla.
I mean, look what he's put Tesla through.
Look at what they've done to that company.
You've got that Nina Giacano, which was up there with the Foreign Affairs Committee the other day trying to gaslight everybody and tell you, oh no, Twitter was never about taking anybody's account down.
That wasn't happening, despite the fact that the State Department moved with Twitter executives to take none other than the President of the United States, Donald Trump, down at the time.
So there was a lot of gaslighting.
Her organization allegedly is involved in trying to bankrupt Tesla.
or take down Tesla.
So that's, you know, he's got that that he's going to deal with, which is a massive amount, all while dealing with the onslaught of, oh, how dare you say this about these people that we're trying to bring into the country.
And believe me, the numbers are staggering.
I've showed you guys that chart that Axios had recently.
Just the massive number of people that were coming in.
What was the goal on that?
I ask you, what was the goal?
Because you know it's going to cost you a ton of money.
You know you can't afford it.
You know that it's a drain on the system and you keep on doing it anyway.
Eric Adams, he's the mayor of New York City.
And wow, Eric was like, do you know how much this is costing us?
It's over $7 billion a year.
So what did he do?
As soon as Donald Trump got elected, first thing he did was he shut off those special cards where you could get over $300 a week for ethnically appropriate food if you were here as a migrant.
I mean, insane.
$300 and change a week.
That was a lot of money.
And so, of course, in the meantime, they're going after him because he dared to call this out.
He danced around in the beginning.
He's the mayor of New York City.
He's a Democrat.
But he's like, We can't handle this.
Are you kidding me?
Like we can't handle this massive number of people coming in.
It's not possible.
We can barely pay for ourselves, especially coming out of COVID, et cetera.
And so no sooner did he say all this than all of a sudden, there's an investigation into Eric Adams with this big bribery charge and he gets indicted.
Well, the judge threw the case out of court and they did so without prejudice, meaning that Eric Adams cannot be indicted in the future again on those charges.
Well, what do you know?
Eric Adams has suddenly become a Kash Patel FBI convert.
Here he is speaking to New Yorkers saying exactly what went down.
And he said, if you have any questions, you know the book to read.
Check this out.
Governor Hochul said last night with Rachel Maddow that she would consider removing you.
How would you feel about that?
She has her role, I have my role.
And throughout this entire ordeal, which I think no American should have to go through, the torment of 15 months that my family and I had to endure for something I didn't do, I didn't do anything wrong.
Throughout the entire ordeal, I said one thing my attorney will handle the legal part, I'm going to handle running the city.
We return jobs to our city, our city's getting safer, we're building housing.
I think that this is a great American narrative.
I stood focused on what I was elected to do.
Governor Hoko is an embarrassment in the position she holds.
She stands on media after someone's burned alive on a subway.
She stands in front of a TV camera and says, I think criminal aliens should be removed too.
But she's got the green light law.
The men and women of ICE and Border Patrol, when they pull a vehicle over, law enforcement, you were in law enforcement your whole career.
What's the first thing you would do?
You run the license plate number.
Declassifying Russia Secrets00:04:01
Are these wanted?
Is there a warrant for these people?
Who are they?
Are they dangerous?
That car's stolen?
All these things, right?
Do you know ICE and CBP can't run DMV data on New York State license plate?
So they're pulling over people not needing to know who the hell they are.
Is that the green light law?
The green light law.
So, on one point, she's saying, Well, I think criminals should be removed, too, but then she locks us out of DMV data.
That'd be like us locking officers out of the NCIC, the Fed zone.
Would we do that?
No, because officer safety is paramount.
She's putting the men and women at risk every day.
The job's already dangerous.
So, Governor Hoko, she needs to be removed.
Everybody needs to be removed, needs to be her.
She supports sanctuary policy.
I don't know anyone who thinks she's doing a good job.
She's an embarrassment.
It's hard for me to be impartial on that.
Okay.
So what was really important about that soundbite, and I have another one to play, the one where he's praising cash, is that he got up there on set on like enemy territory, in enemy territory on, of all things, Fox News and sat there with one Tom Homan who's trying to go after Kathy Hochul, Letitia James, the DMV head in the state of New York alongside Pam Bondi, who, by the way,
has already filed suit against them because they're in total violation of the Constitution when the feds are coming in trying to look for people.
And kick them out of the country.
Well, New York can't actually hide them or protect them, and so they are all sort of at odds with each other.
And the fact that Eric Adams, the New York mayor, sat down with Tom Home and well, things got even worse.
But here's the deal, Eric gets it, he knows what went down and he actually has a certain kind of empathy, if you would, for one Donald Trump, because he knows how they target you if you are at odds with what they politically want.
Here he is.
This is the soundbite where he explains it, And New Yorkers stopped me all the time in trying to find the rationale behind this.
And I found it in this book.
I'm going to encourage every New Yorker to read it.
Government gangsters, right?
So that's a book that Koshra wrote about the deep state at work and how they are trying to target people that are at odds with them.
And let's face it, the deep state just kept getting deeper and deeper and deeper.
And even though America elected Donald Trump in 2016, you still had James Comey doing what he was doing with his.
little honeypot schemes along the way and trying to get into Ben Carson's campaign and trying to get into Donald Trump's campaign.
We know about the Carter Page stuff.
But George Papadopoulos, go look at the interview on my channel.
He was just on the other day saying, hey, they came after me a few times, including when I was on Ben Carson's campaign because they just wanted intel on what the other side was doing, period.
It wasn't that they really thought that anybody was a Russian spy or that Donald Trump.
No, no.
They just wanted to know what they were doing.
because that's who they were up against.
So there's a lot of questions, shall we say, that need to be examined and still will be examined.
You know, of course, that Donald Trump just last week announced that he is declassifying all of the records associated with the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax.
Well, that's good news, right?
Because we still need all that information.
Kash Patel had said on a podcast during, oh, this would have been a couple of years ago, shortly after Donald Trump had filed suit against using RICO laws against Hillary Clinton and basically all her cronies.
And he had said, you know what?
This is important, not just for the $75 million that's at stake and suing all these people, but because we want discovery.
We want to know what went down and how they did it.
Well, now they're getting discovery.
You see, he's president and he's declassifying all that.
So they're going to find out all the information they want.
And Eric Adams may find out all the information he wants and needs.
I mean, he's blamed Biden, shall we say.
Right from the get-go, he knew exactly why this went down.
Independent Candidate Steps Up00:03:12
Look, you step out of line, suddenly you're persona non grata.
I think that your second question, I think you need to ask the federal prosecutors who gave the directive and the orders.
I don't know.
We should ask them who gave the directive and orders that we're going to take on and create this group of lies.
They have the answer to that question.
When it comes down to reading it, I peruse through it to get the top lines, the attorneys are going to dig into the crevices of it, but it is clear everyone that knows me knows I follow campaign rules and I follow the law.
That is how I lived my life, and I don't see coming into the 60s in my age to all of a sudden change what I've done all the time.
I follow the law and I follow the campaign rules.
Thank you.
Well, he's been burned.
It's like, burn me once, burn me twice, game over, right?
Like, he's now going to actually ditch the Democrat Party.
Of course, they're sort of ditching him.
And he's going to be running as an independent there.
And of course, they want to contest that.
So that's going to become a really, really interesting race.
And he's like, for all you guys out there, he said this today that want me to step down.
And it's interesting.
He actually cited many people.
in the minority black population that want him to cite down, right?
It's to step down.
He's like, come on now, right?
Like it's just, it's so fascinating.
And they always try and use things like race, et cetera.
I mean, the latest and greatest Jasmine Crockett, she's all over that one.
We're going to get to some of that news here today as well.
Before I do a big shout out for one of our great sponsors here on the show, you know, we're fully independent, no longer associated with Fox or CNBC or CBS or NBC or ABC or any of these guys, right?
It's just the Trish Regan show.
So one, I always appreciate your patience with everything.
Production wise here on the program.
And second of all, I always appreciate that you are kind to our sponsors.
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Balance IN Nature, I take my fruits and veggies every day, the gummies, I get all my vitamins this way.
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But this is a massive discovery, shall we say, from Elon Musk.
Yes, Elon Musk at some point is going to wind it down.
Why the media wants to make so much of that?
Well, I think you and I know the answer.
But when you're talking about possibly as many as 1.3 million undocumented immigrants being on Medicaid, look, all of this comes at a cost, right?
Elon Musk Georgia Discovery00:14:56
And they're shocked because if you read this, he's saying we actually just took a sample and looked at voter registration records and we found people who are registered to vote in this population.
Yes.
And we found some that actually did vote.
That's alarming.
And we have referred them to the prosecution of Homeland Security for an investigation that's already ongoing.
There has also been talk, Elon has mentioned that there's going to be arrests associated with this.
So again, all this just sort of coming in in the last couple of days and not getting, in my estimation, the proper attention because there's so many other things, of course, I get it, right, to talk about.
But the Democrat Party is just, Elizabeth Warren would have a problem with me saying this, I guess, but just off the reservation, if you would, because of some of the things that they've been doing, some of the things that they have been championing.
And it's an issue.
I mean, take a look, for example, at the latest and greatest out of Georgia.
Democrats in Georgia, you guys, they're walking out because somebody is proposing a bill.
Just listen to this.
Proposing a bill that would ban the use of taxpayer funds in the state of Georgia for transgender surgeries for prison inmates.
Okay, so somebody's in prison.
Now they want to get an operation.
And taxpayers are supposed to pay for it.
There's like so much wrong with that.
We can't even like, but let me just show you.
They're proud of themselves, these Democrats down in Georgia, because they walked out on this.
They're not even going to entertain.
How dare you even bring something like that to the floor?
Yeah, they're very proud.
I mean, this is where they're going wrong.
If you're listening to the audio version of the podcast on Apple, thank you for that.
And we're looking at this video here of just Democrats walking out in protest, in protest of how could you possibly, possibly, possibly talk about not using taxpayer funds to fund these operations.
Unbelievable.
So I'm just going to fast forward through some of this.
Ladies and gentlemen, I mean, this really tells you everything you need to know about the state of the Democrat Party right now.
One after another, they're walking out to protest the blocking, the blocking of a bill that would prevent, prevent the use of taxpayer funds going to transgender surgeries.
And I'm like, you know.
Somebody ought to like give them a marketing class or something, right?
Because this is just getting weird.
Like they don't understand where everyday Americans are in any way.
Like clearly they don't.
That's very evident.
And so I think that this is going to continue to cost them in the election cycle.
I mean, really.
It's pretty remarkable just the lack of common sense, right?
Like common sense.
Do you think anybody really wants to be paying for the transgender surgeries to begin with, let alone for the prison inmates?
No.
Okay, so this is why they are so up a creek without a paddle.
And they're going to lean into this tariff stuff and they're going to try and get this for all it's worth, right?
And say, oh, I told you so, I told you.
I think of the media on their side, et cetera.
We'll get to all that because I should point out to be completely transparent.
I actually bought in today's market because, you know what?
I'm a long-term believer in America, and I have a long enough time horizon that this kind of stuff serves as a distraction for most everyone.
And when everyone's freaking out like that, you need to actually, oh, I could, you need to be a little like Doge, you know, the balls reference.
Anyway, Democrats have no future.
It's really, really, really clear.
All the polling suggests this.
And so they're glomming onto this tariff thing, hoping and praying that the economy is going to crash, and then they can say, oh, you know, we told you so.
But look at the recent numbers.
I mean, even on CNN, they had to admit it.
Full of despair, says Politico.
Democrats are.
Why?
Why?
Why are Democrats full of despair?
All I have to say, Democrats, call your office.
You know where March Madness Times?
Terrible, terrible, terrible to quote the great Charles Barkley.
View the Democratic Party favorably.
CNN SRS, look at this 29%.
NBC News, you want to go lower than that?
How about 27%?
Both are record lows.
The lowest going back.
To 1992 in CNN polling, the lowest going back on record to 1990 in NBC News polling.
The majority of Americans hold an unfavorable or negative view of the Democratic Party at this point.
All I can say is I'm a big fan of the oldies, so I'm going to quote Chubby Checker.
How low can you go?
Nice.
Well done.
With that, what about congressional Democrats specifically?
Yeah, what about congressional Democrats specifically?
You think these numbers are low.
How about this one?
Holy Toledo.
Voters' views of the Democrats in Congress among all voters disapprove.
68%.
And look at the approved number, just 21%, even lower than the Democratic Party at large.
This is the lowest on record for Democrats, according to Quinnipiac University polling.
You think these numbers are bad?
Let's go to this side of the screen.
We'll look how Democratic voters feel.
Get this.
The plurality of Democratic voters disapprove of Democrats in Congress at 49%, and just 40%.
I like that guy.
I really do.
I really do.
Over at CNN, he's looking at all those numbers.
I mean, the Democrats don't know what to do with themselves.
But again, I just go back to what's going on there in Georgia.
When you look at them walking out, right?
They're walking out in Georgia because somebody has presented a bill that would prevent the use of taxpayer dollars for transgender surgeries in prison.
Now, they want to be able to have the transgender surgeries in prison.
And I just, I'm sort of blown away by all of that.
I'm blown away by your generosity as well.
Thank you so much.
As I look at my friend Alphonse back in the house, Alphonse Louis Vigne, at the end of Trump's term, he writes, the president needs to bestow the presidential medal of freedom to Elon, what he has done in his life. will change the world.
The American people owe him so much.
I totally agree with you.
I am a big, big Elon Musk fan.
Big, big, big fan.
I think he's brilliant.
I think he's doing a lot for this nation right now.
And one of you guys wants me to go get a cup of coffee.
You don't think I've had enough?
Actually, it's just water in here.
Sorry to disappoint.
Anyway, it is good to have such generous viewers.
Indeed, take a look.
This is a partnership I just want to flag right now for you because I'm very proud of it.
Herzog Foundation.
I'm proud of my viewers.
I'm proud of my partnerships, this one in particular, because as you look at, say, what the Dems are doing there in Georgia, I just showed you the video, and the kind of hysteria that you're seeing and the division that you're seeing, I'll tell you, it's also happening within American education, and we've talked about that.
That's why $9 billion is now on the line in federal funds at Harvard University, because why should taxpayers be paying for everybody to get a PhD in, I don't know, transgender studies?
We'll leave that alone for a second, but suffice it to say, you know which way the wind's blowing in terms of education overall.
Hopefully Trump can fix that.
In the meantime, these guys are awesome over at Herzog Foundation.
All the information you need, it's totally free.
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Herzog Foundation, calm.
Um look, I mean there's just so much.
I've got to get back to the markets today right, because this is obviously my bread and butter and something I do, of course, know a whole lot about here.
And, as I said um, I want to be as transparent as possible and i'm going to let you know that I actually bought in today's market.
Good to see you too spirit-filled very very very, very good to see you.
Anyway, we've got a market that is most definitely under fire right now.
Investors are very nervous because, well, Donald Trump came out with the tariffs and they were a little bit more than people thought.
And they weren't exactly tariffs as people had assumed.
The calculation on the numbers was a little perplexing to many because it wasn't just simple tariffs.
It also included, well, do you have any currency manipulation going on?
Do you have any other barriers?
And then, as you really looked at it, it effectively seemed as though the president and his economic team looked at the trade deficit.
And used a multiple of that because you know he does not like trade deficits.
Needless to say um, I I think you know that quite well, let me.
Let me take a look at the markets here.
As we come up on the close of trading right now, i'm going to share the screen with you guys.
I think I can do that.
Ha, what do you know?
This is nifty.
Um, let me know if you can't hear me, but I think you can.
I'm looking at the Dow drop in 1600 points S&p, heading towards the biggest loss of 2020.
Well, you know, it's still early in the year and we've got the Nasdaq down nearly 6.
Okay, so this is most definitely a more volatile day.
If you look at the VIX index over there on the right, it's a measurement of volatility.
And what you see is it's approaching 30.
So yeah, there's some volatility, but what did you expect?
I mean, seriously, he has always wanted this, like always wanted this.
In fact, if you go back to a couple decades ago, you'd hear the whole speech, the same speech actually that we heard yesterday in the Rose Garden, effectively.
Last year, criticizing U.S. foreign policy.
What would you do differently, Donald?
I'd make our allies, forgetting about the enemies, the enemies you can't talk to so easily, I'd make our allies pay their fair share.
We're a debtor nation.
Something's going to happen over the next number of years with this country because you can't keep going on losing $200 billion and yet we let Japan come in and dump everything right into our markets and everything.
It's not free trade.
If you ever go to Japan right now and try to sell something, forget about it, Albert.
Just forget about it.
It's almost impossible.
They don't have laws against it, they just make it impossible.
They come over here, they sell their cars, their VCRs, they knock the hell out of our companies.
And hey, I have tremendous respect for the Japanese people.
I mean, you can respect somebody that's beating the hell out of you, but they are beating the hell out of this country.
Kuwait, they live like kings.
The poorest person in Kuwait, they live like kings.
And yet they're not paying.
We make it possible for them to sell their oil.
Why aren't they paying us 25% of what they're making?
It's a joke.
This sounds like it.
Okay, so this has obviously been clearly part of his positioning for many, many, many years.
And now he's back for round two.
And he's like, I'm going to change this.
I need to change this.
I want to create a more level playing field.
And what this really, in essence, is about is doing what we can to help American manufacturing a little bit.
Let's face it, both sides, left and right, haven't cared two bits about American manufacturing.
You look back at NAFTA and all the jobs that were exported away from America.
And before you say, oh, well, you know, we're changing, we're becoming more technological.
Sure, that's great.
And by the way, Donald Trump is all about technology, too.
What do you think Elon's doing there, right?
You know, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, who's now back in the mix.
I mean, he actually is very passionate about embracing the best technology for an AI future, yet simultaneously, we got to do what we can to ensure that we have a strong manufacturing base.
That's important from a national security standpoint, from a national economic security standpoint, but also from a national security standpoint.
God forbid something bad is in the world going on.
And all of a sudden, you know, you don't have any steel manufacturers because you sent that all overseas.
I've told you the story about how frustrated I was coming out of COVID when you had all the factories back up and running here in the States, and yet you couldn't get the chemicals to make Clorox wipes.
I like those.
You know, that's how I clean my desk.
I take a Clorox wipe and I wipe it down.
I couldn't buy these things anywhere.
Not because we didn't have the ability to make it, but because we were dependent on China for the chemicals.
Simple stuff, right?
I think if we learned anything coming out of 2020, it was one, not to overreact, and two, To think about our supply chains and to not be so overly dependent on everyone else.
But in truth, what this really is getting at is the issue of fairness.
The issue of fairness.
In other words, why are they charging that much?
Why are they artificially deflating their currency?
Why are they doing all of that?
And we don't have a level playing field.
My former co-host, actually, at CNBC, a guy named Larry Kudlow, who used to run his economic team, was on Fox earlier today talking about these very issues.
and really stressing the importance of what I'm going to call.
I just talked to my friend Alex Marlowe over at Breitbart yesterday, and he said he sat down with the president a couple of weeks ago.
He's like, why don't you call it equitable trade?
And the president's like, no, no, no, I'm not going to call it equitable trade.
But I said the same thing to Alex.
I'm like, I'd call it equitable trade.
Like, this is equity.
Like, this is fair.
You guys are going to charge that much.
We're going to come back with something else.
Now, also keep in mind, this is sort of first go around.
This is negotiation, okay?
And Scott Pesson, our treasury secretary.
Reiterated that, but here I want you to listen to my former co host on CNBC, one Larry Kudlow, who ran the economic team in the last go around.
His policy of reciprocity is exactly right.
There has to be a level playing field for many decades.
Okay, all these foreign countries have not played by the rules.
You know, you can talk about free trade all you want, they have high tariffs, very high tariffs, low wages, they erect enormous barriers, their tariff and non tariff barriers, sometimes they're Currency barriers to prevent us from exporting to them.
That's done a lot of damage to our economy, particularly industrial goods, the industrial heartland.
It's just what the president said yesterday.
Reciprocity is the right now.
Global Trade Reciprocity Policy00:07:18
The transition, okay, I mean, I'm reading crazy things, for heaven's sakes.
People saying globalism is in, no more global trade.
Yes, of course, there'll be plenty of global trade, but there has to be a level playing field.
We're not even close to fair trade.
That's what this whole thing is.
That's what this whole thing is.
I feel like there was a conversation you and I had not too long ago where you, while in favor of the tariffs, thought maybe they were going too big.
Well, I don't know that.
And I'm not going to wade into that.
That's an internal policy issue.
I'm just saying I'm interested in the policy and the principles of the policy.
Copy.
And he is correct.
And remember, you have to look at this in the context of his overall economic plan.
And the stock market, I think, will come around.
He is cutting taxes, he is slashing regulations.
He is increasing energy production, lowering costs, and yes, he's improving fair trade.
There'll be a lot of movement.
I don't care what the initial reactions are, you're going to see a lot of foreign countries come here and say, We will cut this tariff, we will cut that tariff, we will cut this tariff, we will cut that tariff.
That is exactly what reciprocity is all about.
But the other point he makes, and again, I'm going to defend him on this, we can't keep standing by.
Too many presidents have stood by.
Trump went at it with China in his first term.
Now he's going at it on a global basis.
And I don't think you should be surprised.
I mean, the media, of course, is glomming onto this and totally hysterical.
And that's augmented by the fact that you have people like the former Treasury Secretary of the United States, Larry Summers, who often, you know, look, he's political in nature, right?
He worked for Clinton and he worked for Obama and he can't help himself.
And so he's piling on and the hysteria was like full throttle last night as you saw the futures market down, I got so many, my phone was blowing up.
Everybody's like, what do you think?
And I'm like, I'm buying.
Okay.
Like, I'm sorry.
Like, I went through this in 2020.
I've been through this on the year in the year 2000.
I went through it again in 2008.
And what's the moral of the story?
You don't bet against America.
Okay.
Because long run, we are still the only game in town.
And when you look at our tech sector, I mean, Mag7, look, it's gotten beaten down to the level which, you know, I should remind you guys before I go to Larry, just investinmaga.com, free newsletter.
We have several portfolios over at 76 Research.
One of them, we just put one of those Mag7 companies into in our resilience, our growth portfolio, because it had gotten so beaten down.
So go check it out.
You can get the free version there at investinmaga.com today.
But Larry Summers, he wrote last night late, or I guess around 930, never before has an hour of presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much.
Markets continue to move after my previous tweet.
The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now closer to $30 trillion or $300,000 for a family of four.
Jim Chainos, who's a billionaire hedge fund investor guy I've known for many years, and is not exactly conservative, fires back at Larry.
30 trillion, that's roughly 27 of global gdp.
With all due respect, i'll take the under on that one.
In other words, you guys are just freaking hysterical like this is.
It reminds me of 2020 all over again, and it's really interesting.
I was talking to Rob, my colleague there again Investinmaga.com, Rob Horton, my colleague at 76 Research, and we were looking at this information and we're like okay, there's some interesting, just data points here for the math nerds out there.
Do you know that it was actually?
Oh, he gave me these numbers.
Rob, if you're watching now, text him over to me because the dates are fascinating.
Oh, yeah.
Okay.
Here we go.
February 19th, 2025 was basically the top in this market because we've been trending down since then.
You know, everybody was excited.
Donald Trump had won.
And then since February 19th, we've basically been in this downward drift, which got augmented today.
But if you look at February 19th, 2020, that was also the high last time.
And then we started going down because of COVID, et cetera.
And we eventually had a 32% drawdown, you know, fully in bear market territory.
Today we're in correction territory because we are, as I said, down, well, about 11% from the highs that we had back on February 19th.
Thank you so much again for your generosity, Spirit-Filled, writing.
When prices go down, perfect to invest.
I mean, that's the idea here, right?
I try and teach my kids.
I do.
I really try and reinforce this because they have a really long time horizon.
And so they get a little allowance money and I let them put it in the market, just, you know, simple stuff.
But I encourage them, you know, on a day like today, I did encourage them and had them buy because they've got a long time horizon.
And when you see this kind of steep, steep, steep sell-off, and this was steep, guys.
I mean, this was really, really steep.
Again, looking as these numbers settle out, I mean, you're going to be looking at about a 6% loss.
Check that out there on the 6% loss there on the NASDAQ.
I mean, just unbelievable here.
And it's not really a surprise in light of how much people are worried.
And I would just say you have to understand the worry.
And I get back to this idea that you knew this was coming and that this is, again overdone, like they overdo it all the time, because the media gets in and everybody freaks out and once the air clears, they'll have some time to think about it and they'll have some time to negotiate.
So we already see.
I think it was Thailand that came out and said, okay, we're going to do zero percent tariffs.
Canada's willing to talk.
All of these countries are going to be willing to talk.
If they know what's good for them, they will be willing to talk.
I want to go back to the markets, but before I do, we've got another story I want to get to as we talk about, for example, the Democrats being completely off the reservation in terms of having absolutely no future.
You know what the polls are saying just a couple of weeks ago.
They are severely, severely challenged with the lowest poll ratings in history.
Okay, that's an important thing to think about.
They have never done so poorly.
So of course they're looking at the market here and they're trying to pile on and score some brownie points and say, we told you so, we told you so, we told you so.
But that is not actually, again, I mean, look, we'll see what happens with Donald Trump.
I don't think it's a recipe for success.
I also don't think this woman is a recipe for success.
DEI Programs Fail00:00:56
One, Jasmine Crockett.
We've been talking about her a lot, right, over the last couple of weeks because she's always popping up in the news because she says all these crazy things all the time.
Well, she's very proud of her DEI background, which is interesting timing because All of Wall Street is getting out of the ESG DEI nonsense.
You've got Disney announcing that it's dismantling its two DEI programs, and yet one Jasmine Crockett wants you to know oh, she's all about it.
She's doubling down.
The final thing that I'll say because you've been gracious is this When I first became a public defender, I had no criminal defense experience, and I walked in and I told my boss, Charlie, I said, Listen, you should hire me.
He said, Why?
I said, Because I'm black.
Charlie looked at me like I was crazy.
And I say, let me tell you something.
When I walk in, I'm going to walk in with a level of rapport and understanding that maybe some of my other colleagues will not.