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July 7, 2025 - Tim Pool Daily Show
01:02:44
Leftists SHOOT COP In THE NECK At Ice Facility, Professor Warns CIVIL WAR Is Coming
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Time Text
In a nice facility in Texas, several protesters were outside, looked suspicious.
Officer went over to approach and talk to them and was shot in the neck.
Now, my understanding is the officer is okay, was discharged from the hospital.
But it does appear that this is a dramatic escalation as we have often seen things, they escalate.
The question I often have in these circumstances is when does it slow down?
And the problem is the rhetoric in the media and the ideas and the hyperpolarization are not slowing down.
So one could expect that violence will escalate.
Take, for instance, the issue of ICE facilities and what we're seeing right now.
As the rhetoric is becoming that there are concentration camps in this country, that Donald Trump is separating families, stealing and kidnapping people.
Well, it's exactly as predicted.
Last year, we had the conversation on Tim Castell quite a bit.
The Democrats were going to try and claim that Donald Trump was literally Hitler and the actions he took against illegal immigrants, largely criminals, was no different than that of Nazi Germany.
That's exactly what they're trying to make the claim.
That's the claim they're making now.
So what do we get?
We get this.
A cop gets shot in the neck.
Now, this is following up from the DOJ's refusal to prosecute individuals who were fighting with cops.
A Democrat in New York, a Democrat, I believe that might have been in Arizona.
I could be getting the location wrong.
But you had Jose Padilla.
I know that's not his name, but that's what Jiddy Vance called him.
Actually fighting with cops, no charges.
What do you think happens when Democrats physically assault cops and do not get charged?
As predicted, it emboldens the left and the liberals.
So when they engage in violence against police, they say the line has moved.
Now, before, if you hit a cop, you got arrested, you got charged very serious charges, and the Democrats were concerned.
This was something to take into consideration.
What are the costs going to be, both legally and actual money?
Well, unfortunately for us, the Trump DOJ in two instances said no charges.
Brad Lander and Padilla.
Because of those no charges, I think we are now seeing this escalate.
I think the escalation is related.
Democrats now know the cost is lower as they push the line on violence.
I'd make the assumption on the story that it wasn't like the guy said he was going to go there and he was going to take this action.
I think armed protesters are antsy, terrified.
They're claiming Trump is Hitler and these are concentration camps and Nazi guards.
And with an escalation like that, an itchy trigger finger, a cop gets shot.
So what happens next?
You know, Rhett McIver has been charged formally and indicted by a grand jury because she physically struck federal agents.
But we are now seeing the rise of all these protests.
So where does it go?
Well, my friends, for the back half, a professor in California has argued California in the next 10 years may secede from the union, triggering a civil war as President J.D. Vance, the bold prediction, seeks to maintain the union, sending in federalized National Guard triggering a wave of secessions.
Oh boy, that's right.
Talk of Civil War is back on the menu, boys, as numerous outlets are now bringing up the subject once again.
So by all means, you can say Tim Poole's talking about Civil War.
Guys, if it was in the news, if it had merit to be discussed, you know I would talk about it.
Well, a few stories have emerged over the past several weeks, and now it's bubbled up with this professor saying it's possible.
So we'll bring all of that up right now based on what the left is doing and saying, it looks like immigration could be that catalyst.
So my friends, we will be talking about that.
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Let's jump into the news.
We've got this from the New York Times.
Police officers shot outside immigration detention facility in Texas.
Several armed people were taken into custody after officers responded to a report of a suspicious person outside the detention center, officials said.
Now, the initial reporting on this just yesterday, a little light.
Who are these people?
What is going on here?
Some speculated perhaps it was illegal immigrants themselves that had shot at these ICE officers.
Now, this is a cop that got shot.
They say a police officer was shot outside an immigration and customs enforcement detention facility in Texas late Friday night, and several armed people were taken into custody.
This is the 4th of July, man.
So this is why most people are not there for the news.
Me, I was with family.
The detention center, which is about 28 miles south of Fort Worth, holds people who are awaiting deportation or are accused of violating immigration laws.
Around 11 p.m. on the 4th of July, officers from the Alvarado Police Department responded to a call about a suspicious person outside the detention center and saw someone who appeared to have a gun.
One officer tried to talk to the person, and then several other people opened fire on the officer who was wounded in the neck and flown to a hospital.
The officer was treated and discharged from the hospital, the sheriff's office said.
Several people tried to flee, but they were taken into custody by officers, the statement said.
It was not clear how many people were taken into custody, nor whether they were still being held on Sunday morning, being held on Sunday morning.
At this time, the motives of the suspects are unclear, the sheriff's office said.
The Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, said in an email that a group of 15 people had slashed the tires of federal vehicles and vandalized security cameras at the detention center.
The department did not elaborate about the episode.
The sheriff's office did not respond to questions.
Initially, the reporting seemed to be unclear, but now it's clear after a statement from Tom Homan.
And here you have it.
Good morning.
Let's get to the big, beautiful bill in a moment.
Who were these suspects who were fired, who actually fired the shots and were later arrested?
Who were they, Tom?
Look, they're your typical protesters that go from protesters to criminals.
The attack on ICE officers, you've covered it many times, is up nearly 700% now.
We were talking 500% a couple weeks ago, so it continues.
The rhetoric against the men and women of ICE is skyrocketing, especially by members of Congress.
We have senators, we have Congresspeople that compare ICE to the Nazis, compare ICE to racists, and it just continues.
So the public thinks, well, if a member of Congress can't attack ICE, why can't we?
So the rhetoric has to stop.
Or it's a matter of time for someone, you know, one of the ICE officers goes down or a couple of people.
We've already seen an officer go down.
To be clear, so these were American citizens?
These weren't illegals who opened fire?
No.
As far as investigation, I want to get ahead of local investigation on this, but they appear to be agitators, people that are protesting ICE operations, damaging ICE property, want to attack ICE officers.
Okay, let's talk about the money.
So I would, I think it's perfectly obvious, isn't it?
Tom Holman is saying he doesn't want to get in front of the investigation, get ahead of the investigation, but it looks like your typical agitators, protesters.
However, even the New York Times mentioned that these people were slashing tires.
This appears to be, as of right now, based on a statement from Tom Homan.
I mean, this is effectively, he's the borders are, right?
This is his field.
These were leftist protesters vandalizing ICE property, and they opened fire on a cop.
Are you surprised?
I can't say that I am.
Take a look at this from CNN back in June.
Visualizing the anti-ICE protests and government responses they mention.
Protests in LA, which have inspired protests in other major cities, have ramped up in response to Trump's immigration policies.
Take a look at this map.
All of these locations of various protests.
Now, when I was in Chicago just over the weekend for the 4th of July, there were many people protesting Donald Trump.
In fact, at the Trump International Hotel, police blocked off the street because there was a large protest.
In fact, I posted an image of this.
Maybe I'll pull the image up for you guys.
It must be done.
It must be done.
Because the images are hilarious, mind you.
And I think it is important that you see the protests in Chicago to understand who exactly we're dealing with.
And as you can see, this woman here was defending our constitin.
We were driving down the road in Chicago, and I can't remember who it is.
Someone in the car yelled, Constitin, get a picture quick.
And then Andy snapped this photo, and you can see this woman holding up a sign that says, defending our Constitin.
I understand she was trying to say constitution.
The point is, these people don't know what they're protesting.
Now you may be saying, Tim, why bring up some random lady who can't spell, doesn't know words good and stuff.
Because the issue is the violent extremists require the critical mass.
The way the violent individuals get away with their violence is by having large groups of people create a mass of confusion.
So when 200 people show up and maybe their intentions are pure, they want to protest, going to be peaceful, you look, lady, you're allowed to hold your sign.
I got no beef.
My beef is probably with your ignorance, but I recognize your ignorance.
That's why you're standing there.
Sign regardless, right?
Now, what happens is the far left, if they're standing by themselves and they throw a brick, the cops are going to be like, that guy did it.
But if you have a massive crowd of people, you stand in the middle of the crowd and then chuck a brick upwards, nobody knows exactly who threw it because it's a big mass of people.
Everyone then's in chaos and they run.
Critical mass is extremely important.
Now, in the past month, Donald Trump brought in the Marines, the National Guard to try and shut these protests down.
And sentiment from the left has been, oh, Trump is a fascist.
I can't believe he's sending in the military.
And now a cop is shot.
Shot in the neck and airlifted.
I believe that's what they said, right?
Airlifted?
They said it was by a helicopter, right?
He was wounded in the neck, flown to a hospital.
Okay, so when I hear he's flown and it's an urban thing, I'm not assuming they put him in a plane.
I'm assuming a helicopter comes in and picks him up.
Could be wrong, though.
Could be wrong.
They're going to mention that there's been riots.
The New York Times goes on to mention the Portland Police Bureau declared a riot.
Things have been expanding.
And now Trump's big beautiful bill has been passed.
And what does this mean?
$45 billion for ICE, with all of these leftists screaming that this is the biggest expansion of federal law enforcement.
ICE is now the biggest law enforcement agency in the country.
In the country.
Well, my friends, I don't see how opposing law enforcement defends our Constitin.
In fact, if the law says these people are illegal immigrants and need to be deported, and Trump says, I need the funding to follow the law, that is quite literally the function of our Constitution.
From Yahoo News.
Red states consider alligator Alcatraz spin-offs.
His White House urges them to follow DeSantis' lead.
Lots of bears.
Okay.
The White House and Florida Governor Ronda Santis are encouraging Republican states across the nation to follow Florida's lead and install their own versions of Alligator Alcatraz, a remote detention facility for illegal immigrants located in the heart of the Everglades.
Some red states are already warming up to the idea or already have new detention facilities in the works.
We don't have alligators, but we have lots of bears.
I am not aware of any plans for an Alaska version of Alligator Alcatraz, reps for Alaska state government, told Fox News's Laura Ingram Tuesday, quote, dear DHS, we've got a swamp a dream.
Let's talk.
South Carolina's Gators are ready, and they're not big on paperwork.
If I was governor, we'd bring Alligator Alcatraz to South Carolina, or South Carolina Republican rep Nancy Mace, I'm sorry, South Carolina rep Nancy Mace posted on X on Tuesday when Trump traveled to Florida to tour Alligator Alcatraz.
Fox News Digital reached out to the offices of 26 Republican governors inquiring if they'd be rolling out their own versions, with a handful stretching out from Idaho to South Carolina responding with what they have in the works.
In Georgia, Brian Kepp's spokesman told Fox News, the Peach State has helped lead the way in tackling illegal immigration and recently announced plans to build the largest tension facility in the nation.
Wow.
From maintaining the longest continuous National Guard presence at the U.S. southern border of any state to banning sanctuary cities and directing the Georgia Department of Public Safety to enhance its partnership with ICE, under Governor Kemp's leadership, Georgia has helped lead the way in tackling illegal immigration.
Furthermore, one of our private sector partners recently announced an agreement with ICE to convert a Georgia facility into the largest detention facility in the nation, a move that is supported by the governor and will only bolster national efforts to detain criminal illegal immigrants and process them for deportation.
The communications director for Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Sam Dibkey, told Fox Digital that Arkansas is building a new 3,000-bed prison in the state.
And I go on.
I'm not going to read the response from every single state, but lo, my friends, many are planning some kind of expansion of these detention centers.
Which brings us to the new republic.
Our leftist friends writing, are we about to have labor camps in the United States of America?
If you think that's far-fetched, then you really haven't been paying attention to what the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress have been up to lately.
Well, let me put it this way.
Certainly there's a possibility that because under the 13th Amendment, you can force inmates into slavery effectively, labor.
Let me bring this up for you guys.
13th Amendment, because a lot of people are unaware of how slavery works in the United States.
The 13th Amendment reads, neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime, wherever the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States or any place to their jurisdiction.
Congress shall have the power to enforce this by legislation.
Many people think the 13th abolished slavery.
It did not.
It codified it.
It just sets the prerequisite.
You must be convicted of a crime, literally any crime.
That means the government has the right to enslave you over a parking ticket.
Stupid, right?
It's not going to happen.
I know.
But in California, Kamala Harris famously kept prison inmates in jail to use as slave labor to fight wildfires.
I am not exaggerating.
They had prison inmates fighting wildfires, and some of them were supposed to be released, but they were kept in because they needed the slaves.
So the argument here is, the left is making, if illegal immigrants are detained in these cells, perhaps labor camps, well, these people are not convicted of anything, right?
So in that case, it shouldn't apply.
And I don't see why in their crackpot minds, they think Trump would force illegal immigrants to work.
However, it's possible they offer work to them.
Seriously, imagine you've got all these illegal immigrants.
You're in the process of, some of them are getting reviews for their legal challenges.
And they say, would you like a job while you work here?
That might be interesting.
But let's hear the argument.
They write one aspect of the Republicans' big, ugly bill that didn't get enough attention until AOC elevated it over the last few days is the massive amounts of money it directs to the apprehension and detention of illegal immigrants.
For the love of all that is holy, that was the purpose of the bill.
See, Democrats don't pay attention to the news, so they have no idea what Republicans think.
Now, in their minds, the whole thing was just to strip people of Medicaid and Medicare, which was not even a principal function of the bill.
There is something in there about taking illegal immigrants off SNAP benefits, and it will actually, it will actually get people off Medicaid and Medicare to a certain degree.
But the Republicans were cheering for it largely because of the funding of ICE.
And then AOC says at one time, these people don't read.
They don't pay attention.
AOC says, I don't think anyone's prepared for what they just did with ICE.
This is not a simple budget increase.
It's an explosion making ICE bigger than the FBI, the Bureau of Prisons, DEA, and others combined.
It is setting up to make what's happening now look like child's play and people are disappearing.
No, criminals are being arrested.
And this will be the defining narrative of history.
Should the Democrats win?
That is what they are going to say.
Should we win?
It is what we are going to say.
Now, in the event that Democrats and the liberals and their crackpot reality actually prevails, hope not, they will write in the history books, but the evil fascist right justified disappearing children as criminals.
But they didn't break any crimes.
Oh, they did.
It's a violation of, what is it, eight USC?
Let me pull it up for you.
8 USC 1324.
Is that it?
8 USC 1324A.
Alien smuggling, transporting, harboring, inducing, conspiracy, abetting.
Actually, this is just one of them.
One of them.
I should bring this, and I always bring this up.
Listen, they'll make the argument that just because it was a law doesn't mean it was just.
Slavery was a law that was unjust.
The issue is, can we secure our borders and maintain sovereignty?
Should we lose this?
The left will argue it was always unjust and fascist.
Everything Hitler did, well, I shouldn't say everything, but they passed laws in Germany and they said it was legal to do these things, even though they were abhorrent.
Now, we can all agree as human beings who understand the difference between morality and legality.
In this regard, however, there is a moral question.
Do people come to this country illegally, they violate our laws and the wills of the people?
We did not ask them to come and we are asking them to leave.
A big difference from what happened in Germany.
Godwin's law.
Let's just say it now.
But this is the argument that the left is making.
And they're saying that what Trump is doing is evil and people are being disappeared.
Yeah, back home.
That's it.
You came here.
We're giving you a ride.
I love this.
Let's set the narrative.
Democrats are angry because the worst thing we're doing is giving people a ride home.
I think that sounds like a nice thing.
Now, to be fair, there certainly are third party, a third nation, they're calling it deportations.
Trump has just got cleared for this.
Some people are being deported to South Sudan, some to El Salvador.
So there are questions.
The problem is the moral conundrum of, if you come to our country illegally and your home nation refuses to take you back, you don't get to stay here.
What then do we do?
Perhaps you, as the person who broke our law, should have considered it before you took the action.
They took the action against us.
Now, you might argue, but they're just looking for a better life.
Sure, so were the Vikings when they stormed the British Isles, raped and pillaged.
I don't care what the reason is.
We have laws.
We ask you politely stay at the door.
You don't get to kick my door in.
They're going to say the next day, as fate would have it, President Trump signed the bill into law.
Historian Timothy Snyder posted a column on Substack under the blunt headline, Concentration Camp Labor.
If AOC's post and Snyder's headline sound hyperbolic to you, consider what's actually in this new law.
It includes $170 billion for immigration enforcement, about $50 billion to build a wall on the southern border, $30 billion for ICE, and $45 billion for detention camps.
And I'm saying, okay, that's what I voted for.
What is ICE going to do with all that money?
One thing, obviously, is that they will try to hire enough people to hit MAGA.
I love this.
Apparatchik.
Is that what I want to put?
Sure.
Stephen Miller's target of rounding up 3,000 people a day.
That's a target it apparently still hasn't even met.
In other words, ICE has already been detaining thousands of people who, yes, entered the United States illegally, but ever since just lived, worked, and even paid taxes.
Don't care.
Don't care.
I don't care.
I went home for the holidays, and we landed at Midway Airport.
It's the first time I've ever actually landed at Midway Airport, to be honest, despite living there.
That's where I grew up.
Jimmy Doerr, too.
Shout out to Jimmy.
Jimmy's from the same neighborhood as me, like two blocks away.
I kid you not.
That's so crazy.
What a small world, huh?
And I went to my local park, and I was sad to see the baseball fields had been overgrown with weeds.
When I was a kid, we used to go there, and it was baseball games nonstop.
The baseball fields were overgrown with weeds.
And there were a couple of soccer goals in there, and I don't hate soccer.
We also had the Chicago Fire Stadium not too far away from us either.
The Point was, nobody was playing any sports at all.
The baseball fields were just covered in weeds.
Our culture is dying.
Now, I'm not blaming all of illegal immigration on our culture dying.
I don't care if it's soccer or baseball.
The point was, no one was taking care of the park at all, largely because people didn't have children, because people are staying inside on the internet.
But additionally, additionally, from this is a combined expounding factor, illegal immigration as this democrat solution to declining population.
Instead of us trying to maintain our culture, even with a population shrinking, again, I'm not saying it has to be baseball.
I do understand a lot of people pointed that out, saying baseball was an American pastime, and now nobody's playing.
And there's a soccer field there.
That is a component.
I'm not really crying about the soccer goals because people play soccer in America too.
We have, you know, we've got famous soccer players, and soccer is the biggest sport in the world.
My point was that the field was just full of weeds.
They put up the soccer goals, stopped taking care of the baseball fields, and it's the people's fault.
People stopped bringing their kids out.
This is not a solution to our problems.
It will just compound it.
So seeing all of this, they say, yes, they lived.
Yes, they worked.
They even paid taxes.
This is the desperate solution from Democrats because, well, I think it's a problem they created.
We didn't have kids.
So they said, you know, it's funny because simultaneously they said, don't have kids.
And now there's not enough kids.
Quick import as many people as possible.
It's destabilizing.
It's terrifying, to be honest.
Now where we ultimately go, they claim that there's a fake idea of non-citizens voting.
I don't think non-citizens vote all that often, to be honest.
But the real issue is this.
I think, actually, I don't know if I have it pulled it up.
Where is it at?
Third way.
I don't think I have it pulled up.
Are Democrats inflating their congressional vote count of illegal immigrants?
The answer is yes.
But I do want to make sure y'all understand.
Some people have made the estimates high as 13, even 20.
I don't know that it's that much.
Understand that California, the estimate by 2022 was 2.6 million illegal immigrants, and Texas had 2.06.
Now, what they say is, aha, this proves it.
See, California and Texas balance each other out.
Texas is red.
No.
Congressional seats are not statewide.
I should pull this up from the third way.
These people are so incorrigible.
Here we go.
I got it.
I got it.
I thought I had pulled up, but I definitely got it.
Is illegal immigration really a Democratic plot to sway congressional apportionment?
They conclude that it's not.
And they show this chart saying this proves it's not.
Because their goal here, I guess, to lie.
They say Alabama loses a seat, California gains a seat, Minnesota loses a seat, New York gains a seat, Ohio loses, Texas gains.
Therefore, their ultimate conclusion is that it's between zero and one extra seats.
They act as though congressional seats are, if the state's red, then the congressman is Republican.
No.
Texas has many illegal immigrants, meaning they get more blue seats.
Not just red.
They get more Democrat votes.
That's the point.
Now, Electoral College, fine, make your argument.
The point is clear.
Texas, as a government, was opposing the illegal immigration and sending their illegal immigrants to other jurisdictions, which I complained about, saying all they're doing is giving blue states more congressional seats.
California is trying to keep them all in.
This all goes in one direction, my friends.
This all leads, in my opinion, to an escalation of probable conflict in this country.
Now, it's not an opinion I came up with.
Certainly, while I've talked about it quite a bit, because I think it merits conversation, there are people who've dedicated their whole careers to talk of civil war.
They write books about it.
They give tours and talks about it.
I just talk about what they're talking about.
But by all means, have the memes.
The left likes to claim that I'm the one who came up with the idea, advocated for it, or promote it in whatever way.
Nope.
The reality is there are many people who have noticed the parallels, the likelihood of civil war with the expansion and the conflict that we're seeing now.
So my friends, I'm going to wrap it up there.
But we do have more in the back half of the show, which will be up at 4 p.m. at rumble.com slash TimPool or youtube.com slash Timcast.
So smash the like button.
Share the show with everyone you know.
Stay tuned.
That segment will be coming up later today.
For everybody watching live, we're actually going to jump to that now.
And we have this from the postmillennial.
So let's start.
From the postmillennial, political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war.
Political economist Benjamin Cohen warned the risk of political polarization in America is reaching a breaking point, and it's substantially greater than zero.
And not just that, my friends, we have more and more stories.
Could America break apart?
Democrat issue civil war warning.
Trump calls for civil war.
What's the next one?
Mother Jones, will Trump's disinformation lead to a civil war?
And on and on and on.
Heavens me.
Why are so many people making the argument that we're headed for a civil war?
Perhaps it could be.
Mass deportations, expansion of ICE, and professors repeatedly giving this warning.
Former CIA analyst Barbara F. Walters saying the U.S. on track for a civil war.
Journalist Stephen Marsh writing several books about it.
Actually has a book called The Last Election that he wrote with Andrew Yang.
And one of the characters is me.
I'm sure he doesn't treat me fairly or nicely in his book and accuses me of whatever.
But regardless, we've had the guy on several times.
We've interviewed him.
And he certainly believes we are on track for a civil war, though he blames the right.
My friends, with all the talk of immigration, this is one of the predictors that we had in the past couple of years as to what could be the catalyst.
Abortion was one of them, but I don't know that abortion makes the cut.
Perhaps, perhaps.
Right now it looks like immigration.
The story of immigration right now is tracking Similarly, in some ways, to that of slavery in the First Civil War.
Now, obviously, there's a big difference.
People brought here against their will and forced to work is very different from people breaking in.
But there's an argument over the rights of humans that creates some similarities.
Again, I know they're overwhelmingly different, but there is a tiny overlap in some areas, as, you know, look, everything overlaps in some way.
What we have now is illegal immigrants who are inflating the vote count for states like California, Electoral College, and congressional vote count, changing the shape of this country in ways the American people do not want.
Sooner or later, these blue states must be brought to heal.
And if they resist, civil war.
We've already seen the makings of.
Now, maybe they don't.
We don't know for sure, but it's possible.
Now, before we read this story, my friends, we got a big announcement.
Make sure you go to DCComedyLoft.com and pick up your Culture War Live podcast tickets.
July 26th, August 2nd, August 9th, the upcoming dates.
July 26th, we got some big names lined up.
They're not confirmed, so I can't confirm that just yet, though we really need to get on it because it's coming up.
August 2nd, Michael Malice, Angry Cops, having that cop debate.
It's going to be amazing and it's probably going to be the funniest show we've ever done because both these guys are fantastic, extremely funny.
But, you know, Michael Malice very critical of police and Angry Cops, quite literally a cop.
That'll be at the DC Comedy Loft.
So go to DCComedyLoft.com, check the events, and pick up your tickets to the Culture War Life now.
They will sell out.
I guarantee it.
Also, we have tickets.
We have 30 seats for each show, free for members at TimCast.com.
First come, first serve.
So go to Timcast.com, join our Discord server, hang out with like-minded people, and we reserve seats just for you guys.
Plus, after parties are in the works, brought to you by the Discord members, and we will be sponsoring and helping get all that set up.
But let's jump to the story from the post-millennial.
Political expert warns California could secede in the next 10 years, sparking a new civil war.
Interesting.
What's this all about?
A professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has issued a warning that California could attempt to secede from the United States within the next decade, potentially sparking a broader civil war across the country.
Political economist Benjamin Cohen, who authored 20 books, said in a recent analysis that the risk of polarization in America reaching a breaking point is substantially greater than zero.
Now, I want to give a shout out to his name.
It's Ben Cohen, the same as the Ben and Jerry's guy.
It's probably a common name, I guess.
Cohen outlined a scenario in which California declares independence by 2035 due to escalating tensions between the state and the federal government, which he said could provoke a dramatic response from Washington.
In a mock news bulletin of this hypothetical scenario, Cohen imagined a future where President J.D. Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby Red States.
Armed conflict looks increasingly possible.
Well, we've got it for you, my friends.
This is from news.ucsb.edu.
Could America break apart?
Expert explores the possibility.
In a new book, political economist Benjamin Cohen considers the forces driving nations, including the U.S., towards fragmentation.
But full stop, my friends.
What about this?
From theweek.com.
This is a report from 2020.
U.S. election 2020, Washington insiders preparing for counting chaos and states seceding.
Experts conduct wargaming exercise amid fears of major political upheaval following November vote.
Let me just grab this for you.
The shadow campaign, time.com.
I want to show you these two stories.
Many of you are familiar with them, but for those that are not, because it's been several years, I want to make sure you see this.
Time magazine wrote the secret history of the shadow campaign that saved the 2020 election.
Saved it?
Well, it's supposed to be a democracy, right?
In which case, you can never save an election.
Just politically, one side wins or doesn't win.
But the argument is that between the two sides, we're all America, right?
No.
They saved it.
And what do they describe it as?
A conspiracy.
They say, quote, there was a conspiracy unfolding behind the scenes, one that both curtailed the protests and coordinated the resistance from CEOs.
Both surprises were the result of an informal alliance between left-wing activists and business titans.
The pact was formalized in a terse, little-notice joint statement of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, that is, the government, and AFL-CIO published on Election Day.
Both sides would come to see it as a sort of implicit bargain inspired by the summer's massive, sometimes destructive racial justice protests, in which the forces of labor came together with the forces of capital to keep the peace and oppose Trump's assault on democracy.
That is how Time magazine described it.
In this period, several Democrats and neocons got together to have a war game.
What would happen if Trump refused to lose?
They claimed he did.
Well, let me just skip all the hubbub and pull it up.
In the ensuing chaos, California, Oregon, and Washington state said they would secede from the U.S. if Mr. Trump was sworn in.
The Democratic-controlled House of Reps asserted that Mr. Biden was the true president.
The Republican-controlled Senate said it was Mr. Trump.
Now, that didn't happen.
But there were some elements.
People claimed the election was rigged.
There were deep challenges.
And the Capitol Police hunted down many innocent Trump supporters and falsely charged them with crimes.
Now, I know the Democrats are going to say, on January 6th, the violent rioters.
Okay, I'm going to say it again, as I always do.
The violent rioters of Jan 6 deserved prison.
Trump pardoned them.
Yeah, I think three years is enough for a riot.
I mean, come on.
Some people got 20 years.
It's ridiculous.
I think three years is enough.
These antifa guys that are smashing windows and starting fires, I think three years is enough as well.
Granted, you know, Anyone who actually had a plot to overthrow the government, which they didn't, you know, deserves prison time.
But they went overboard with it.
And the result was extreme violence.
Now, this guy's making the argument: California may try to secede.
Here's what they write: Benjamin Cohen begins his new book: quote: After years of festering discontent with the direction of politics in Washington, California today formally declared its independence as a sovereign nation.
President Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states.
Armed conflict that's increasingly possible.
A provocative scenario.
All the more plausible coming at a time when California's governor has furious the president for ordering troops into the state to keep order at immigration protests.
Riots, by the way.
But for all our partisan acrimony and political polarization, America isn't really headed towards a second civil war, right?
I wish that I could be sanguine about it, said distinguished professor Emeritus Cohen, who spent 30 years as the Lewis G. Lancaster Professor of International Political Economy in the Political Science Department at Santa Barbara.
I'm not.
It seems to me we cannot ignore the risks of the current fissures and fragmentation that break down a sense of community.
Given that today's political divide is more between urban and rural as opposed to North versus South and East versus West, it's difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there was a civil war.
But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.
Cohen's views on the subject are extremely well informed.
His new book, Dream States, a lurking nightmare for the world order, is a comprehensive guide to secession movements currently active all around the world.
He provides an assessment of the risk of these efforts leading to violence and offers a possible path of diffusing tensions.
I consider secession a grievously underappreciated phenomenon.
My motivation to write this book was to call people's attention to the fact.
We tend to simplify geography by looking exclusively at the existing lines in a map that separate one sovereign state from another.
But the reality is there are many people within those states that are very unhappy with the arrangement.
They'd prefer to draw the lines in a different way.
In some cases, they'd prepared to fight to redraw those lines.
The war in Ukraine provides a vivid example.
The conflict over whether it should be an independent nation or a facet of Greater Russia goes back hundreds of years.
It's not going to end with the current conflict.
It's similar to the relationship between Quebec and Canada.
Quebec is a distinct community with a different language, which has periodically challenged its incorporation to the larger state.
The same is true of Ukraine.
The majority of Ukrainians believe they have a right to a state of their own.
Putin and his people take quite a different view.
And I love these deranged, evil psychopaths.
The situation in Ukraine really irks me because these people so desperately want you to think it's literally just Putin.
Ukraine fought for independence.
I'm sorry, Crimea fought for independence in the early 90s and the greater Ukraine crushed their fight for sovereignty.
It is not as simple to say it's Putin versus the Ukrainians.
There are many conflicts budding.
The eastern regions, the Donbass region, these are a more Russian-speaking people.
They're close to Russia, and there are arguments over where the border should be drawn.
And it is a conflict which I think the U.S. has no reason to be involved with.
But notice how these people write it, these American imperialists.
The difference between these two situations, of course, is that Canada has found a way to keep Quebec in the fold, primarily through allowing the province to have considerable sovereignty under its own affairs.
He goes on to say, it's simply not happening in the most troubled spots, in most potential troubled spots.
The most dangerous of these is Taiwan.
We get it, we get it, we get it.
But as Cohen notes, much of the human decision-making is driven by forces other than logic.
In the case of secessionist movements, he documents in dream states, the primary driver is usually a sense of identity, the impulse to rally behind the group you feel you belong to, and the insistence on its right to act independently.
Identity can be a very powerful motivator, he said.
That's why I worry about the risk of civil war.
When it comes to something as strong as a sense of community identity, rationalism falls by the wayside.
Agreed.
Here we go from March.
Democrat issues civil war warning.
Maxine Waters said that President Trump is working towards a civil war.
Quote, I'm worried that Trump is on the edge of creating a civil war.
He alluded to it more than once.
He alluded to the fact that if he did not get re-elected, that there could be a civil war.
There still may be.
From Los Angelespress.org, which I'm not familiar with, but they do have this and it is prominent on Google.
Quote, the second civil war Trump wants.
Trump is not celebrating the U.S. military.
He's recruiting it for a personal regime.
His speech at Fort Bragg was an open call for a second civil war.
Indeed, it wasn't.
But let me break it down for you how they view things and how we and I view things.
There's an America that I remember.
I'd wake up and this is the early 90s, 91 maybe, 92.
Oh, no, this would have to have been 93 or 94.
How old is that?
I would have been, let's see, I was four in 1990.
So actually, probably 95.
Got my years way wrong.
I was probably seven or eight.
So it's around that time, you get it.
And I walked outside of my house, walked only a few blocks to the local park where there were four baseball games happening at once.
Kind of weird.
How do you play?
I mean, the fields were far apart from each other, but the ball could roll into the other part of the outfield for the other field.
But, you know, that's what happened.
And I sold Kool-Aid, got a little pitcher you could pump.
My dad gave me some Kool-Aid materials.
Said, you're going to owe me the, I'm going to loan this to you.
Go sell Kool-Aid, but you got to pay me back for the Kool-Aid.
So me and my brother went to the park where they were playing baseball, and we asked if anybody wanted to buy Kool-Aid from us.
That was the America I grew up in.
It's a great American pastime.
Well, as I mentioned in a previous segment, I went home today, and those baseball fields are overgrown with weeds.
Nobody plays anymore.
No one's there.
It's not just an issue of immigration per se.
It's that our culture is dying.
People are going online.
They're on phones.
They're swiping.
And parents aren't maintaining this.
It's just as much my fault as it is yours or literally anybody else's.
To be fair, Some are more responsible than others.
Some people had families bring their kids to ball games and try and maintain that American tradition.
And I'm not saying baseball is the only thing football is fine, too.
We have sports and we have pastimes.
There were things that Americans did for a while, but times do change too.
That's fine.
But now, here's the country that I see: the people that made America and who gifted that inheritance to their children, this includes immigrants, those who came here legally.
We all worked to build a country with an agreement and a handshake.
Now that agreement is being destroyed.
This article right here says that Donald Trump is declaring a civil war.
Why?
Well, I look at New York with Zoran Mamdani, who Trump threatened to arrest, and I think he should, should Zoran Mamdani obstruct ICE.
That would be seditious conspiracy, sedition, in my view.
Zoran Mamdani said he will protect the families, the people from Trump's immigration enforcement.
This is I am legend, like the graphic novel.
What's happened is Americans are being replaced, and that's of all races.
That is the hardworking Hispanic American who came here legally, whose family came here legally generations ago, the Native American, the black American, those who were all a contributor to the building of this nation.
There are now people coming here en masse to the tune of 20 million who care not for our traditions, our laws, our baseball fields.
They just want to make money and live a better life.
I can certainly respect that, but they are not carriers of the American tradition, much like all of the people here.
And I would also make the argument, the descendants of slaves have an entitlement to this nation for which they contributed, that is being taken from them as well.
In Chicago with the migration crisis, it was the black community that said, we were being, quote, we are being replaced.
Now it's shocking for all of the far left that want to claim it's white supremacy.
Now, here's what I see in this country.
There are those of us that believe in the American promise, the American tradition, and what our ancestors built.
Now you have Zoran Mamdani, a migrant, legal, who is advocating for illegal immigrants to be protected.
He says he will do what he can to stop ICE, our law enforcement.
The way the left is framing this, they, along with their illegal immigrant friends, they're saying, it's our country now, and we will not let you stop us.
Then there are those that believe in the American tradition saying, you have broken into our country and have usurped our traditions, and you cannot stay.
I believe this is a fight for the soul of America, and Donald Trump must deport these people.
He stands firmly on American tradition.
These people who write this article saying that Trump is calling for a civil war, it's not a civil war.
There is an invasive force that has come here without resistance.
And Trump is saying, no, you can't be here.
You have to go.
And these are the two factions.
Of course, they feel that they're right.
They come here and they say, it's our country now, but they are not legal.
They came here illegally.
They violated our laws.
The argument is the land belongs to only those with the power and will to control it.
Well, Trump certainly has that will.
They write.
And this is from last month, mind you.
Earlier this week, Donald Trump called for a second civil war at a U.S. military base.
He didn't, but you see what they're saying.
The scenario can be resisted and prevented if we have the courage to listen, interpret, and act.
And this Saturday, we will have chosen to act.
The speech was given at the base now known as Fort Bragg.
The fort was named for a Confederate general.
It was renamed Fort Liberty.
Under this administration, it was renamed Fort Bragg.
You see, there are those that would maintain the traditions, the good and the bad.
A Confederate general indeed, Bragg.
But the reason we name things after Confederate generals is not because we celebrate the Confederacy.
No, we crushed it.
It's to celebrate the reunification of the Union and the recognition that we are all now Americans, even those who were defeated.
The statues of the Confederacy, to some, honor the legacy of the Confederacy.
To others, are a reminder of the Civil War and the lives lost.
Understand this when I bring this up.
I'm pulling this up.
The lies.
The lies they claim.
Here we go.
The lies they claim.
From the AP.
Protester involved in pulling down abolitionist statue in Wisconsin gets six months in jail.
Story from 23.
In 2020, a Union Civil War abolitionist hero named Hans Christian Hegg, his statue was toppled and beheaded by these protesters.
Now, hold on there a gosh darn minute.
I thought this guy was writing some anger about Fort Bragg.
They are liars, they are invaders, and they seek to destroy our country.
I am proud of this nation and Abraham Lincoln and the defeat of the Union.
I also recognize Sherman was a monster.
His march to the sea, killing civilians and raising farmland, destroying railroads.
The war was brutal.
It was awful.
But the Confederacy was wrong.
Now, some argue they were right, but I'd argue otherwise.
I also recognize the Union did horrible things.
Suspension of habeas corpus, the arrest of the Maryland legislature, not all of them, most of them.
There were terrible things in that war.
And that is our history and tradition, the good, the bad, and the ugly.
We say away with the bad and forever with the good.
And that means we always seek to be better.
Now, this man says they renamed it Fort Bragg, the Confederacy.
That's a lie.
To manipulate liberals.
During the George Floyd riots, they beheaded and destroyed Hans Christian Hegg.
They tore down and destroyed a statue of Frederick Douglass.
They took down George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Christopher Columbus.
It is not about the Confederacy or the left and right.
It is about the history of this nation versus those that would usurp it and destroy it.
So when Trump says, our names, our history, it will be restored, they say he's calling for civil war.
No, the reality is, In 2020, they were tearing down statues and changing names because that is how you destroy a people and you destroy a nation.
And they did it with little resistance.
But the resistance is now here to save and preserve this union.
And that is what Trump is doing, rather imperfectly, but it's certainly what he aims to do.
It is what it is.
This is why they say he's calling for a civil war.
Will Trump's disinformation presidency lead to a civil war?
They seek to burn this country to the ground, to reshape what it means to be American.
There is an American tradition.
They don't want it.
Here's this.
Is America headed for another civil war?
From STL News, July 6th.
They say, a profound sense of unease pervades conversations across the country, from bustling urban centers to quiet rural communities.
Headlines frequently decry unprecedented levels of political division, civil unrest, and seemingly irreconcilable differences.
A stark question hangs in the air.
Are we headed for a civil war?
They say, you know, blah, blah, blah.
Today's polarization goes beyond typical partisan squabbles, ideological sorting, effective polarization, echo chambers, gerrymandering.
They go on to say, so with these deep divisions is a conventional civil war on the horizon.
Most political scientists and historians specializing in civil conflicts around the world believe a traditional 1860-style civil war is highly improbable for a developed nation.
However, dismissing the possibility of any conflict would be naive.
Dr. Barbara F. Walter, a prominent political scientist who has extensively studied civil wars globally, has notably warned the nation exhibits several key indicators found in countries on the path to political violence.
Increase in political violence.
Yep.
Sustained instability and anarchy.
They say, rather than a neat division into warring factions, a more likely scenario might involve a widespread civil unrest, localized conflicts, and a breakdown of social order in specific areas, where grievances fester and are expressed through violence.
Erosion of democratic norms.
This encompasses a decline in trust in institutions, a disregard for election results, and willingness by political actors to undermine democratic processes for partisan gain.
This anocracy, a state combining democratic and autocratic features, is identified by Walter as a particularly vulnerable space.
For example, when Democrats arrested Trump's lawyers, I'm going to say it again because this is one of the most shockingly egregious things we've ever seen.
Trump's lawyers were arrested for simply providing legal services, accused of being part of a conspiracy.
Okay.
It's right in your face.
Now, I don't know if that means war.
They say for citizens across the nation, this means engaging in civil discourse, seeking out diverse news sources, a way to navigate turbulent waters.
While a full-blown civil war may not be knocking on America's door, the current trajectory is undeniably concerning.
The path forward requires a renewed commitment to democratic principles, a willingness to bridge divides, and a recognition that the nation's strength ultimately rests on the diverse populace's ability to coexist and work towards a common future.
The lessons of history are clear.
Ignoring the warning signs comes at a perilous cost.
I think it's wonderfully naive to think that you're going to bring leftists who want open borders and who are too stupid to actually know what's happening in this country to the table to negotiate honestly.
I just don't see that as a reality.
Here's a mirrorstafety.com.
What would a second American Civil War look like?
I've cited this before, but it's actually quite a long read.
But they mention, interestingly, what a second Civil War would look like.
Let's just jump right to it.
Section three.
Hot spots in conflict regions.
If a second civil war were to break out, certain parts of the country would see more conflict than others.
Others.
They mentioned the Mason-Dixon line might not be as clear-cut this time, but the ideological contracts are just as strong.
Cities tend to be more liberal while rural areas tend to be conservative.
This could lead to urban centers clashing with the surrounding rural areas.
The violence in the streets becoming common occurrences.
A civil war could see urban governments trying to maintain control while rural militias mobilize against them.
We saw this in the American Civil War.
I'm sorry, I'm sorry, the American Revolutionary War.
Lexington conquered.
The regulars quickly occupied Boston.
They owned it.
But the rural areas are where the fighting started.
When people say it's unprecedented, they're wrong.
It's most civil wars have this divide.
There are some cities that will quickly be conquered by conservative right-leaning forces.
These are going to be in red states.
Blue states with strong federal, with strong, I'm sorry, state governments will quickly start to suppress the rural areas.
So it will be somewhat state by state.
Some states will be forced to join and others will be forced to join others.
Famously, Texas in the American Civil War.
Largely, the reason their leaders wrote they joined the Confederacy was proximity.
Texas had barely been a state in the Union.
They were part of Mexico.
There was the whole independence thing.
They joined the U.S. And when the Civil War started, they said, what are we going to do?
Stay in the Union, but be isolated and cut off from all the other states?
It made no sense.
So Texas said, it just makes sense.
We're part of the Confederacy.
Surprisingly, that's where slavery finally technically ended in the United States.
Although, to be serious, the 13th Amendment actually ratified slavery.
My friends, I don't know what will happen.
We have this interesting article, which is recent from just this week, charting multidimensional ideological polarization.
And they have this image, which is fascinating.
This image is not Democrat and Republican.
This image does use red and blue, but actually does not identify opinion.
You can see here, A. Figure 1A is Democrat and Republican.
What it's showing is the clusters of ideological homogeneity between the groups.
As you can see, opinions, while not defined for Republicans, are clustered.
There's a small center, very small, and then a large blue.
And you can see where the dark, dark blue clusters.
This makes perfect sense.
Democrats actually are less unified.
You've got the far left and the more moderate Democrats disagreeing.
As we can see in this chart, Democrats and Republicans are hyperpolarized, but Democrats are actually at odds with themselves.
To figure B, you can see black and white.
Even in the same section, notice it's the same shape, the area that is largely Democrat holds different political views to the black, white liberals hold different views to black liberals.
If you overlaid all of these different colors, it'd be impossible to see things.
But the point is, we can see where Democrats are and how they differ in their political views.
You can see here the Republican area is dark, dark, dark red.
And then over here, liberals, they don't necessarily completely agree, but they actually do agree more as white people than they do with black people.
What I would make the guess on is at the bottom cluster that is blue here for black, these are likely the woke left, but we don't actually know.
The point is, you can see low income, high income.
You can see that low-income people tend to be Democrats aligning with the left as well as black voters.
The point is hyperpolarization.
It's here, my friends.
Whether or not we get a civil war in 10 years, I honestly have no idea.
But the ingredients are in the pot.
The tinder is below.
And the spark could come at any moment.
We don't know.
We never do.
There have been periods of civil strife that have not ended in civil war.
In fact, there have been many of them.
So maybe it's a lot of nothing.
Or maybe it'll be crazy.
So my friends, smash that like button, share the show with everyone.
You know, there certainly is a lot more to talk about this.
And we'll have the conversation later tonight at Timcast IRL.
So make sure y'all share the show with everybody.
Go back.
Go back.
Yeah, go back to Timcast IRL.
Tonight at 8 p.m., make sure to come hang out for Timcast IRL, where we will be discussing all of these issues as well as some of the latest developments.
Of course, as we always do.
Let me try and grab some of your rumble rants while we're here.
Fire has it says the no Epstein client list, good spin.
The media and FBI are corrupt.
Tell the public we found nothing.
Behind the scenes, Cash and Dan are making a case against FBI agents that helped cover the list.
I don't know that I believe it.
Sure.
Rain says, does everyone losing their mind over the Epstein files realize they are blindly believing an Axios article about a leaked unsigned memo?
That's a very, very good point.
Very good point.
This leaked memo, some have argued, is fake.
So we'll see.
Pinochet says, why are we pretending that if it were a Civil War scenario, Democrats like those disarmed in Massachusetts would not all be blanketly blamed and collectively punished?
You know, my friends, I don't know for sure what exactly happens.
We can try and predict all we want.
But what I will say is, our good friend Russell Brand is gearing up to go live, so we will begin that raid.
Thank you all so much.
Frano, no guests today.
We're coming back from the holidays.
And a lot of people don't want to work.
It's Monday after the 4th of July.
Maybe they're traveling.
I can respect it.
I hope you had a great America's birthday.
I certainly did.
I'm going to send you on your way to hang out with our friend Russell Brand.
So smash that like button.
Share the show with everyone, you know.
Thank you all so much.
Make sure you go to DCComedyLoft.com.
Come to our events, man.
It's going to be nuts.
They got something like 200 seats.
These are big venues.
We're going to sell out for sure because it is in a big metro area.
I think we've already like, we're close to it.
So pick up your tickets now before it's too late.
I know we're looking at like a month and a half out for some of these shows, but the 26 is fast approaching.
And you're going to be there.
And you know what we do?
We bring you up onto the stage to join the debate.
And we're going to have members of the public just coming up.
And who knows what they're going to say?
That's why these are pre-tapings because some people might say something real crazy.
But hey, it'll be fun.
Thanks for hanging out, everybody.
Come hang out tonight at 8 p.m. for Timcast IRO.
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