Wisdom Of The Crowd Predicting TRUMP LANDSLIDE, Farage Says Polls Are LYING To Suppress Trump Vote
Wisdom Of The Crowd Predicting TRUMP LANDSLIDE, Farage Says Polls Are LYING To Suppress Trump Vote. Nigel Farage says that the goal of media is to trick voters into thinking they can't win.Betting odds across the board are saying that either Trump landslides or that his odds are way better than the forecasters give.But polling seems to be partisan these days with some saying Trump is guaranteed to win and others saying he has only a 10% chance.But USC Dornsife says wisdom of the crowd is a better indicator of victory and if thats true than Draft Kings betting odds suggest trump hits a 49 state landslide.Joe Biden is favored to win and Democrats are favored to take the house and the senateSeems like we will know more tomorrow
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In 2016, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight got it wrong.
And I'm not talking about the general election.
He gave Donald Trump, I believe, a 27% chance of winning.
And then when Donald Trump won, he said, I gave him slightly better than one in four.
I wasn't wrong.
The polls were off.
My forecast was correct.
And Trump won.
Having a 27% chance of winning means very often you actually win.
Right now, 538 is giving Donald Trump a 10% chance of winning.
The only problem?
As I said, he was wrong.
But what was he wrong about?
Michigan.
He said with absolute certainty that Hillary Clinton would defeat Bernie Sanders in Michigan.
He couldn't call that race.
The polls were a disaster.
And right now, the polls are saying Joe Biden is going to win.
But for some reason, the wisdom of the crowd suggests Donald Trump will actually win.
The wisdom of the crowd is when you ask everyone what they think will be or what is, and then you kind of get a distributed model or distributed answer.
One person probably doesn't have all the answers.
That's why communism doesn't work.
But a large group of people will give you a sort of, who wants to be a millionaire, ask the audience distribution.
The way it works is if you ask one person who's going to win, they might say, Joe Biden!
You say, okay, should I trust him?
Should I trust Nate Silver?
But if you ask a hundred people, you might get 60 people saying Joe Biden and 40 people saying Donald Trump.
And then you might say, interesting.
What makes them think this?
You know, I would take a hundred Nate Silvers at their word, but one guy who happens to be an expert, I'm not entirely convinced he's correct.
Well, USC Dornsif has been asking experimental questions, and I've covered this quite a bit.
This is not the main bulk of what I want to talk to you about.
They are asking people how they think their friends will vote, and found in the past five elections they've tracked, wisdom of the crowd is a better indicator than directly asking someone their intention.
Which brings me to What I really want to show you.
And it's betting odds.
Now I know betting odds aren't a guarantee, it's just what people think, but therein lies the point.
If USC Dornsif is saying wisdom of the crowd is a better indicator, ladies and gentlemen, behold.
From DraftKings Election Pool, only one state thinks Joe Biden will be president.
In this tweet, they say with over 350,000 entries, a majority of people in every state besides Colorado predict Donald Trump will be the winner.
of tomorrow's election.
Now, Predict It doesn't say the same thing.
They think the odds are favoring Joe Biden.
But why then is it that Predict It is giving better odds to Donald Trump than 538?
And that's the important question I want to look at today.
I think regular people are sick and tired of what's going on.
You know, we're seeing people boarding up their cities, New York, D.C., all across America.
Why?
It's not Donald Trump they're worried about.
If you've got regular people boarding up It stands to reason they understand the real threats of the far left.
I think regular people know Joe Biden is bad.
I think there are a lot of blind people.
And I think when it comes to betting, people would be, well, I'd say people think you're dumb to vote against Donald Trump.
I don't know who you should vote against.
I don't know who's going to win.
But let me tell you this.
I believe the polls are wrong for the 800th time.
Now, that doesn't mean Joe Biden's going to win or lose.
It just means I think the polls are wrong, and guess what?
So do all of these people who are making bets.
Let's take a look at what's going on.
Before we do, head over to TimCast.com slash donate.
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A lot of people may be relying on these polls.
A lot of people may be confused as to how Trump won last time.
Well, let me explain some things to you and show you what's going on, and give you some reasons why it is the polls may in fact be wrong, and I'll show you what regular people actually think.
If you think I do a good job and my videos are reasonable, rational, and informative, please consider sharing them to help support my work.
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Let's take a look at what's happening.
In this image, as I've already shown you, the DraftKings election pool has all of their entries basically saying, Trump's gonna win in every state, except for Colorado.
They say, haven't entered our election poll, it's absolutely free.
People are being told to enter this pool, I'm sorry, the election pool, Through no cost of their own.
And they're entering it saying, I think it's going to be Trump.
Now, of course, Kyle Griffith of MSNBC says this is not how data works.
And no one's suggesting this is hard data on what's going to happen.
It's just people going in saying it's going to be Trump.
But take a look at PredictIt.
PredictIt is another betting market, and they say Donald Trump has about a 41% chance of winning.
The way this works is you buy shares in an individual, and then once the race is over and the results are in, then it's about 64 cents to a dollar.
So here's what happens.
If you put $0.64 down on Joe Biden for one share, Joe Biden wins, you get a dollar back.
That means if you bet on Donald Trump, you're getting $0.60 for every $0.40 you put down.
You're gonna put in $0.41.
At least I think that's how it works.
I don't really know.
The point is, they're saying the odds are slightly better.
Well, I'm sorry.
The odds are significantly better for Donald Trump.
In the betting markets.
Now, the thing about Predict It, and the reason I show this, is that Predict It actually costs you money, whereas DraftKings, they say, is free.
The draft kings may just be Trump supporters going and spamming every single pool saying, I think it's going to be Trump.
But I'm not entirely sure that actually making a bet is free.
They say entering our election pool is free with a hundred K in prizes.
So it seems like there's no harm in just, you know, going in there and betting.
Maybe.
When it comes to how people really feel, like if you ask someone, hey, no, no, no, no pressure, no demands, no requirements, just who do you think is going to win?
They say, Trump.
But when it comes to actually putting money on it, a lot of people are like, I don't know, man, the media, they're saying Joe Biden.
Well, let me show you what Nate Silver is saying.
Over at Newsweek, what Nate Silver had to say about Trump's chances on Election Day, one day until election.
And I will counter this with another story arguing that the media is manipulating people to suppress their vote.
Newsweek says Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is favored to win the election this Tuesday, according to the latest forecast on Monday by 538.
However, President Donald Trump still has about a 10% chance of winning the election, says American statistician Nate Silver, the website's founder.
According to the latest forecast by 538, Biden has a 90% chance of winning the election.
But remember, that doesn't mean there isn't still a path for Trump.
Trump might be the underdog, and he needs a big polling error in his favor, but bigger polling errors have happened in the past.
It's not necessarily true either.
There have been a few forecasters who have put out electoral college maps that say these maps show a Trump victory without the polls being wrong.
Within the polls and the margin of error, there is a path for Trump.
A 10% chance of winning, which is what our forecast gives Trump, is roughly the same as the odds that it's raining in downtown Los Angeles.
And it does rain there.
Downtown LA has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1 in 10 shot of a rainy day.
Pennsylvania couldn't make or break the election.
Recent polls have shown Biden to be leading in Pennsylvania.
However, it has been a narrow lead, Silver noted Sunday.
According to our forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping point state, and a lot of Biden's chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in Pennsylvania.
He leads Trump there by about five points in our polling average, but it's not as large a margin as Biden might like.
The results of the latest Reuters-Ipsos weekly poll published Sunday, conducted among 1,006 adults, 673 likely voters, in Pennsylvania from October 27 to November 1, showed 51% would vote for Biden, while 54% would vote for Trump.
The poll had a credibility interval of 4 points.
Which means, well within the margin of error.
We don't know what's going to happen.
Everybody wants to tell you they do know what's going to happen.
And I think that's just hubris.
Now I want to show you something funny about PredictIt.
When you come here, they say, here are the rules.
Well, okay, here we go.
PredictIt may determine how to settle the market, blah, blah, blah.
Their decisions, okay, I'm not gonna, the rules are meaningless.
But let's scroll down to what I really wanted to show you.
A comment that I thought was really funny.
One user posted a screenshot of a poll.
In general, do you think more of your neighbors are voting for Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
Likely voters said Biden 39%, Trump 48%.
There you go.
Nobody wants to admit they're voting for Trump.
And Nate Silver is adamant.
There is no secret Trump voter.
Drop it.
It's not real.
I disagree.
Because I know them.
Because I have friends in my life who are like, please don't tell anybody, I will be destroyed.
I know celebrities and musicians and pop culture icons who said I would lose all of my endorsement deals if anyone found out.
I was in Hollywood about a year, two years ago, maybe, and I met a B-C list celebrity, TV show actor, moderately well-known, and someone said, this guy's voting for Trump.
It's like, come on, come on, come on, shh.
They get me fired.
No joke.
That person wouldn't even tell his friends, like, shh, no one can know.
We were in private.
Trump's secret voter's real.
At least that's what I think.
Now, interestingly, there's, according to RealClearPolitics, Trump is not accelerating like he was in 2016.
They say, you know, in 2016, as we got closer to Election Day, Trump was improving.
And then he sealed the deal.
The polls were wrong, but he was improving.
He says, that's not happening today.
Well, I disagree.
Take a look at this.
Donald's not done yet.
Trump narrows gap to 6 points across 12 battleground states and raises prospect of a late upset despite being ahead by 10 points nationally.
Well, Trump isn't ahead 10 points nationally.
Biden is.
They should probably phrase that better.
But Trump is narrowing the gap.
So he is accelerating.
And at six points, that's arguably within the margin of error.
I mean, Biden support could be lower, Trump support could be higher.
But we'll see.
If they're as wrong as they were right now in 2016, Trump would still lose.
It may be that they're even more wrong than ever.
I don't know.
I don't know why I should trust the polls.
I don't know why I should trust the media anymore.
And therein lies the big point.
The main point.
If the media is going to lie about so much, then why should I believe their polling is true and correct?
You see?
I think it was maybe Matt Taibbi or Glenn Greenwald, I'm not sure.
I think it was Matt Taibbi said, Trump is the most lying president, but the most lied about president.
Not a day goes by I don't see some ridiculous lie in the media.
Right now there's a story from the Daily Beast that says Trump's camp is sweating, they're going to lose.
And I'm just wondering, who are you talking to?
It's real, there's an image of Trump with, like, sweat coming off, and it was like, Trump surrogates and Trump seem to be really nervous.
They know they're gonna lose.
And I'm like, the people who I know, who are connected to the Trump campaign, are not sweating.
In fact, they have a bigger problem.
Hubris.
Yeah, the people I talk to who know and are around the Trump circles are gloating and laughing, we're gonna win and we know it.
Sorry, if they lose, it will be because of hubris, not because they're worried and panicked and sweating.
Or at the very least, they really do think they're going to win.
And maybe it's because of lawsuits, or maybe it's because the polls are wrong.
I can't tell you, but they do think so.
Trump, there's like one news story where he was walking off stage and he goes, let's end this.
Trump thinks he's going to win.
And Trump, Trump wins.
I mean, look at his life.
But we do have one reason to suggest why the polls may be wrong.
Take Nigel Farage, the architect of Brexit.
They said Brexit would never happen.
For those unfamiliar, it's when Britain left the European Union.
They said it will never happen, no one's gonna vote for this.
And then they did.
And then it got jammed up in Parliament.
They were trying to leave the EU, but couldn't get done.
And then something wonderful happened for the people of the UK.
December 13th, I believe, 2019, The Conservatives won, so resoundingly, that certain areas that hadn't voted left in nearly 90 years switched to Conservative.
Shocking, everyone.
The polls certainly did not predict it.
The polls were off.
But the polls did expect conservatives, the Tories in the UK, to win.
They just thought that the left would be able to form a coalition and have the majority.
Nope.
Not what happened.
The people of the UK said Brexit again three years later.
So why should I believe the media?
And why shouldn't I take the word of Nigel Farage for what he's saying?
He planned Brexit, and he won.
Here's what he's saying now.
Mainstream media using polls to suppress Trump turnout.
Quote, I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing
the other side to go out and vote.
Mainstream media polls showing Joe Biden with a wide lead are failing to accurately gauge
support for Trump and are being used to suppress Trump voter turnout, according to Brexit architect
Nigel Farage.
Farage, the British politician who led an underdog movement to remove the UK from the European Union, said he believes Trump will win, despite current polls, just like in 2016.
Quote, I think that polling is often used by the establishment as a way of disincentivizing the other side to go out and vote.
Faraj said on Just the News AM television show.
The morning of Brexit, there was a poll released that said remain in the EU were 10 points ahead.
And it was done very simply to say to potential leave voters, do you know?
Do you know what?
If it's raining, don't bother to get down to the local school and vote because you're going to lose anyway.
Farage said he was struck with American polls because of what he called tiny sample sizes, generating margins of error between three to four percent.
Come on, you know.
Oh, in Florida, Biden's a half a percent ahead.
It's ridiculous, because the margin of error is several times bigger than that.
He's right!
The margin of error is massive in these polls.
They had a historical error of 5% in 2016, and they failed to call Florida in 2018, as
I mentioned in my previous segment.
Within the mainstream media in recent decades, voter suppression is typically cited by Democrats,
who say Republicans aim to keep progressive voters from turning out.
He said he absolutely believes that polls this year are meant to suppress Republican
turnout.
I also think that after the year we've been through, and after the hysteria over Black
Lives Matter, and the fear that if we even question the Marxist movement, that somehow
we're going to be condemned for being racist, and put on some list or treated in some way,
I think the phenomenon of the shy Trumper, who's just not going to tell the pollster
what they think for fear they're going to be knocked down in a book somewhere, is even
greater than it was four years ago.
I agree.
I didn't vote last time.
That's why I think Trump's going to win this time.
I don't know what's gonna happen.
I have a gut feeling for Trump.
My head is saying the polls are saying Biden.
I have no idea.
Let's read.
Faraj said he agreed with the results seen by polling firm The Trafalgar Group, which specializes in tracking hidden Trump voters, conforming to what the firm calls a social desirability bias.
These conservative and independent Trump voters feel marginalized and fearful about expressing their support for the president due to social stigma in news media and social media.
Trafalgar Group founder Robert Kahaley told RealClearPolitics this bias in 2020 is worse than it was four years ago.
I think that's right, Faraj said.
And I also think there's another factor here, which is a lot of people who feel that they're let down by the political establishment, the media establishment, see the polling establishment as being part of the same group.
So if they get an email or telephone call for a polling company, they use Anglo-Saxon language to say, we're not playing the game with you.
So it's actually quite difficult to track many of these people.
Not only that, in Florida there are murmurs that Democrat Latino voters are voting for Trump.
So even if they're saying in early voting Democrats are turning out these numbers, they may have voted for Trump.
Not only that, in PA, where we're seeing massive Democrat voter turnout, In early voting.
These could be Union Democrats voting for Trump.
Perhaps I'm getting the data wrong because TargetSmart, the early voting tracking that most are using, uses a model to determine the party affiliation.
I guess we can only wait and see.
They go on to say...
Farage educated this correspondent about the use of the British slang Anglo-Saxon language as a euphemism for words beginning with F and others that we're not going to talk about on your show.
Wonderful.
Trump beat the pollsters before and he can do it again, Farage tweeted on Thursday, while linking to his UK Telegraph essay laying out why he thinks Trump has momentum not showing up in many mainstream media polls.
How about this?
57,000 people turned out in Butler, PA.
Insane.
20,000 were in the stadium, 15,000 were waiting outside, and the remaining 12 apparently were in the peripheral area.
That's my understanding, as it was told to me by some politicos.
The Secret Service estimated 57 to 58K.
20,000 people inside, 15,000 waiting outside, couldn't get in.
Those are numbers, man, that rock stars struggle to get.
And that's Donald Trump.
They're going to say the Trump 2020 campaign pollster, John McLaughlin, told Just the News that Facebook blocking new ads in the final week of the presidential election cycle is also an attempt to discourage Republican voters waiting to vote closer to Election Day.
McLaughlin said that Facebook's decision to halt new campaign ads is part of its political censorship.
The Democrats came out early.
And the Democrats have leads in a lot of these states based on party registration, affiliation, and they're trying to stop the Republicans from coming out right now.
We've been tracking the early voting, and a lot of Democrats have cast their ballots by mail or in person, and now the Republican votes are coming.
It's an excellent point.
Facebook says they're suspending ads in the final week.
And we know Republicans are most likely to turn out in the final week.
Which means they're shutting down ads that could swing independence for Donald Trump.
Seems like they're cheating.
The pollster says this week is when many Republicans will vote.
Comparing the election to sports, he said Democrats are ahead after the third quarter and they want to cancel the fourth quarter and go into a prevent-defense scheme.
Farage was called on stage by Trump on Wednesday during an Arizona campaign rally, one of five different events he said he'd been to in the previous 48 hours.
He said that in his extensive mingling, he encountered crowds of ardent Trump supporters who said they didn't support Trump in 2016, but were planning to in 2020.
Just because we've got mail-in ballots, just because the turnout is going to be significantly higher than it was in 2016, doesn't mean it's all going the Democrats' way, Farage said.
We don't know what's going to happen, in terms of who's going to win.
If you were to ask me, based on my personal experience, my friends, my family, and my vote, it looks like a Trump victory.
But we really don't.
There's gonna be lawsuits, there's gonna be dirty games, and, uh, it could go any way.
I'll tell you what we can guarantee, though.
We can guarantee violence and riots, and the American people know it.
America boards up ahead of election storm.
Businesses and government offices across the nation batten down the hatches in case of rioting and unrest.
Are these people worried about Trump supporters?
No.
They're boarding up because they know Black Lives Matter is going to romp about and destroy things.
Tell me this.
How could these urban centers vote for the party of Black Lives Matter while cowering in fear of them?
It doesn't make sense.
I think the polls are wrong.
I don't know who is going to win.
But I'd like to give one final shout out to Matt Taibbi who wrote, A wonderful takedown of Joe Biden.
In an article he wrote called, The Worst Choice Ever.
Donald Trump is a disaster, but Joe Biden's party is democratic in name only.
Why this year's election is a vomit milkshake.
He says, My colleagues at Rolling Stone recently endorsed Joe Biden for president.
Biden's lived experience and expansive empathy make him not just a good but an outstanding candidate.
This is a fight between light and darkness.
I love lived experience, by the way.
As if experience just wasn't good enough.
Here's what Matt says.
Uh, this is gonna get spicy.
Joe Biden is a corpse with hair plugs, whose idea of empathy is to jam fingers in the sternums of people who ask the wrong questions, or call them fat, or full of S, or dare them to try me.
And that's if he remembers what state he's in.
Is he a better human than Donald Trump?
Probably, but his mental decline has hit Lloyd Bridges in hotshots levels, and he shares troubling characteristics with the president, beginning with a pathological struggle with truth.
Biden spent much of 2020 lying about everything from his Iraq war vote to his educational history to a fantasy about being arrested in South Africa with Nelson Mandela.
The same press that killed him for his behavior in the past let it all slide this time.
Same with the growing ledger of handsy uncle incidents that had adolescent girls and campaigning politicians alike wondering why a vice president needs to smell their hair or plant lingering kisses on their heads while cameras flash.
Biden's entire argument for the presidency, and it's a powerful one, is his opponent.
This week's election is not a choice between light or darkness, but pretty much anything or Donald Trump.
And only in that context is this disintegrating, biless iteration of Scranton Joe even distantly credible as a choice for the world's most powerful office.
A standing ovation to Matt Taibbi.
Big fan, Matt.
I think Matt's harsher on Trump than I would be, but I respect his criticism 100% because Trump is, in so many ways, just not a good president.
I know.
I could already hear the Trump supporters saying, what do you mean by that?
And I'll tell you.
Trump is a great president when it comes to the economy.
He is a fantastic, great president when it comes to Middle Eastern peace deals.
And he is a great president when it comes to, well, Playing the media well, I should say.
We've got peace deals, we've got withdrawal, we've got really great things from Trump.
But when you combine that with divisiveness, specifically the way he mocked body slamming a reporter, the way he talks about the left as though he's not their president and he's playing culture war politics.
I know I probably do similar things, sure, but he's the culture war president.
That's what makes him bad.
So, to put it simply, if you add all these things together, I would actually say Trump is not that bad.
In fact, he's okay.
When it comes to the things I care about the most, he's actually pretty good.
And thus, I have no problem voting for him.
I just wish we had something better.
There's no way I would ever vote for a Joe Biden.
Sorry, I'm not putting that administration back in the White House.
They were doing horrifying things.
Trump, I believe, is susceptible to public pressure.
And the reason why he's so divisive when it comes to leftist culture or kind of politics is because they don't give him a chance.
If they told the truth about him, he'd pander to them all day and night.
But they don't, so he won't.
The bigger question, however, is not so much whether Donald Trump is good, great, the best, or whatever.
Personally, I think Trump is the person you should vote for.
I believe everyone should go out and vote for Donald Trump to help this country, to ban critical race theory, to get these Middle Eastern peace deals.
And I tell you this, for all the things that I think are wrong with Donald Trump, I would take Middle Eastern peace over a lot.
Like, the economy could be bad, and I'd be like, I'm taking the peace deal.
So, you know, I don't know exactly why you should vote for him, and I respect people who really like him, and I respect the people who don't.
I think there's good reasons to point it out.
Matt Taibbi does not like Donald Trump, but I respect him for being honest about Joe Biden.
Let's all be real here.
There's a large sect of people in this country that don't like Donald Trump as a person, Oh, but he's doing good in so many important areas.
But the bigger question is not about Trump.
It's about who wins if Trump loses.
I've been given a big shout out to a lot of journalists I think do good jobs.
And lately, it's been Glenn Greenwald, Matt Taibbi and Michael Tracy.
And so I've got this article from Michael Tracy, where I'm not going to read through it, but he basically says, A Biden victory just emboldens the ridiculousness of the leftist tactics, the lies, all of the insanity.
And that's a good reason for me to say, don't let them win.
Michael writes, From the moment Trump took office, I argued it was necessary that he face a rational opposition, with an emphasis on rational, discerning, targeted, evidence-based criticism that would be imperative to counteract against Trump's worst impulses.
I maintained at the time, given his hardly disguised penchant for blusterous, petty authoritarianism, while of course Trump would be far from the only president whose accesses needed checking, any occupant of the most powerful office in world history would.
There was at least some reasonable cause to believe that his regular issuances of impulsive fly-by-tweet demands could eventually raise unique civil liberties concerns.
In hindsight, I might as well have been arguing for a parade of pinstriped purple unicorns to march down Fifth Avenue because the concept of rational Trump opposition was an utter fantasy.
Instead, what we got right off the bat was blanket resistance to Trump, with the concept of resistance turning into far more of a self-promotional branding exercise than any kind of sensible, civic-minded disposition.
Seemingly every word that came out of Trump's mouth, no matter how inane or innocuous, prompted wild outbursts of blithering hysteria, egged on by the unholy, profit-seeking alliance of social media algorithms and TV ratings.
In the imaginations of his most excitable antagonists, it was taken as a truism that the U.S.
was perpetually teetering on the edge of total Trump-induced collapse, usually because he insulted a cable news host or something.
I think it's a great article.
To be fair, Michael has had criticism for things that I have said.
I'm not saying directly, I don't know if Michael's ever said anything specifically about me, but I know that he's criticized some of the ideas I've put forth.
And that's absolutely fine.
I think any journalist who's being honest, like, you can see it at this point.
A lot of people really like Donald Trump.
He's the best, they say.
And a lot of people really hate him.
But the hatred for him is usually based on bunk BS.
The reality is, I dislike Trump as a person.
He's doing okay.
He's doing pretty well on a lot of issues I care about.
So ultimately...
I guess I should say the point of this segment.
The wisdom of the crowd suggests a Trump victory.
Any sane and rational person knows electing Joe Biden because you hate Trump is not a legitimate cause, and the absurd temper tantrum put forth by the left should not be rewarded.
But we'll only be able to wait and see tomorrow.
It's tomorrow, isn't that crazy?
Oh, man.
I wonder what's gonna happen, like, after it's all over, it's gonna be like a post-game breakdown, everyone shakes hands, it was a great culture war, you know, good job, you guys.
We're gonna go back, you know, have a good time.
Better luck next four years.
Yeah, right.
It is gonna be Bedlam.
Well, I don't know if the wisdom of the crowd is correct or the experts are.
I guess you can decide.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
I'll leave it there.
Next segment's coming up at 6 p.m.
over at youtube.com slash TimCastNews.
It is a different channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all there.
Jeff Bennett says a federal law enforcement source tells NBC that beginning tomorrow, crews will build a non-scalable fence to secure the White House complex, Ellipse and Lafayette Square.
Two hundred and fifty National Guardsmen have been put on standby, reporting to Metro police officials.
We don't know what's going to happen.
We do know that there are several prominent activist organizations preparing for something.
And we have a tweet here from Andy Ngo.
Vague, ominous post in the Portland Antifa Telegram chatroom that reads, Quick reminder that it's totally cool to chill out for a couple of days in preparation.
Catch up on Netflix, hit the shooting range, go hug your family.
Big things are about to go down.
I don't know what's going to go down.
But I do know that everyone is preparing for it.
From USA Today, stores brace for post-election unrest and possibility of violence, damage to businesses after presidential results.
Fortress White House.
The non-scalable fence.
Secret Service prepares.
For potential unrest.
Potential?
No, I think it's gonna happen.
I think they've been planning it for some time.
And the far left, it's my understanding, plans to engage in some kind of... I don't know.
I don't want to call it just unrest, because they're organized.
So, operation.
Regardless of what happens.
You see, The far-left extremists have a great opportunity right now.
We're not going to know who won.
Donald Trump will potentially declare victory if he has a massive lead in certain states.
They're arguing on the left, this means he's going to declare victory before he's even won.
The problem with mail-in voting is that we do not know how many will be coming in.
So even if we have 99.9% of precincts reporting with a Donald Trump landslide, they'll say no, because an indeterminate amount of ballots may come in and change that.
Even if Trump is up, he would have to be up hundreds of thousands of ballots to where there's not enough population to actually swing that vote.
So Donald Trump can declare victory if he wins.
The left says otherwise.
What happens?
Well, in the ensuing chaos and the coming months, I only imagine the far left is going to engage in some kind of shenanigans.
There's a leaked video where they talk about having guns because the people with guns win.
There's videos where they talk about occupying buildings.
They've mapped out DC.
Things are gonna get spicy.
I hope you've been taking care to prepare for whatever it is you need to.
And within reason.
You know, I don't think they're gonna come to every random house or apartment.
At least not yet.
I was, uh, a lot of people on the left tried to use ridicule to make it seem like what I'm saying is wrong.
Or...
You know, just to mock the idea and push people away from it, that the far left will get violent and cause harm to people.
And the reason many of them do this is that ridicule is an excellent tool for discrediting someone or an idea.
It's so silly to assume that the far left will end up going to your house.
Are you crazy, Tim?
They already did.
They went to Cassandra Fairbanks' house, so she had to move.
They went to Tucker Carlson's house, and they've gone to the homes of regular people in many different instances.
In Portland, in the Pacific Northwest, where that text message says something big is going to go down, they've been going through residential neighborhoods on and off for months, chanting, no justice, no sleep.
Will they just randomly target you, average citizen?
Maybe not.
Maybe at some point.
It's kind of like a lottery ticket.
You don't know where they end up.
But I tell you this, if you got an American flag on your porch, oh, you betcha, they did that.
The New York Times reported it.
They went to someone's house and said, if you do not remove that flag, we will burn your house down.
What do you think happens when we don't know who won the presidential election?
Chaos will ensue.
Riots will erupt.
Trump will likely try to stop them.
They're putting up a massive non-scalable fence around the White House.
And the left will use this as justification to claim that Trump is staging a coup or trying to steal the election or something like that.
There are two world views right now.
One is that Trump is crooked, corrupt.
He stole the election.
He colluded with Russia.
The other is that Trump is the duly elected president and that he's being held back by a corrupt and distasteful and distrustful group of Democrats and crony establishment elites.
And there are kind of some people on the right side that are like, people like me, you know, Trump's kind of bad.
He's not that bad.
The alternative is worse.
Well, the two parent faction worldviews.
Or I should say the most important is the lefts.
They believe that Trump is evil.
They believe he's an authoritarian despot.
Many of them don't actually know what's going on or why it's going to happen.
That means if Donald Trump calls out the National Guard to defend the White House from people with explosives, the media will just tell them it's Trump suppressing the citizens who are trying to uphold our Constitution.
Yep.
The far left is to have called for communist revolution, socialist revolution, or critical race theory intersectionality, which are all fairly similar.
Kamala Harris recently put out a video where she says we all should end up at the same place.
She said, with equality, we're all given the same resources to compete with one another, but with equity, we all end up at the same place.
Maybe we don't want to all end up at the same place.
Maybe it's nice to have something to strive for, to be the best of the best of the best.
Not everyone will be the best.
Sometimes people will be just okay.
And that's okay too.
But why should we cut off the tall grass for the sake of the short grass?
I don't know what you want to say about what she's saying there, but I already know that a lot of people are going to claim that she's pushing, you know, outright communism or whatever.
Let's read about what's going on with the White House lockdown.
Fortress White House. Crews will begin building non scalable fence around the complex tomorrow
as Secret Service prepares for potential unrest. They say the White House is taking no chances for
Election Day as crews will begin constructing a non scalable fence to secure the executive
mansion. The ellipse in Lafayette Square. It has been reported. And of course, this is coming from
the Daily Mail. The potential for unrest has also prompted Metro police in Washington, D.C.
to put 250 National Guardsmen on standby, according to Jeff Bennett of NBC News.
Cities across the nation have boarded up shops, storefronts, office buildings, restaurants, hotels, and other properties in anticipation of possible violence related to Tuesday's presidential election.
The reported plans to further fortify the White House indicates the level of concern among law enforcement officials.
In June, it was reported that President Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, and their son, Barron, were rushed to a secure underground bunker in the White House after Black Lives Matter protesters breached one of the barricades set up outside the complex.
Hundreds of demonstrators had gathered outside of the White House in the days and weeks following the May 25th police-involved death of George Floyd.
The massive crowds prompted authorities to erect a massive iron fence around the perimeter of the White House.
On June 1st, members of the National Park Service, U.S.
Park Police, and other security forces lobbed chemical agents and punched and clubbed demonstrators and journalists in Clearing Lafayette Square near the White House just before crews raised the new fence.
Trump administration officials have denied federal forces at the time of the forceful removal of crowds were making way for the president to stage photos nearby.
Lafayette Square has historically been one of the country's most prominent spots for demonstrations and other public advocacy.
Also closed off by yards of new fencing is the Ellipse, a 52-acre park behind the White House, which features several monuments and is part of the president's park.
The Ellipse is a public space and often referred to as the nation's front yard.
The nation's capital, like cities throughout the country, are on edge as Election Day approaches.
Downtown businesses are already boarding up their windows in anticipation, and Police Chief Peter Newsham promised on Thursday that his entire department would be working on Election Day.
In Washington, dozens of overlapping law enforcement agencies control certain landmarks and public spaces.
Police officials have restricted the days officers can take off around the election and have spent tens of thousands of dollars on chemical irritants and other less-than-lethal riot-control munitions after much of the agency's stockpile was depleted this summer.
Here we can see a photo.
A man walks by a boarded-up building in D.C.
as stores, businesses, and offices prepare for possible election-related unrest.
My question is, why is this just deemed normal?
Why are we just accepting that it's going to happen?
And it is.
Shouldn't we have more security forces?
Some kind of checkpoint process?
I don't know.
I'm not a fan of authoritarianism.
I'm not a fan of, you know, draconian lockdowns like the things we're seeing in Europe.
Decisions have to be made and it's hard to know where that line is drawn.
Right now, in Europe, for instance, notably Paris, if you want to leave your house, you need to have your papers.
Seriously, I am not exaggerating.
You need to have papers indicating that you are allowed to leave your home because of COVID.
There will always be an excuse.
Authoritarianism will never just show up one day and demand you give up your rights for no reason.
There will always be a reason.
Right now, the fear is the reason is unrest in the United States.
Within reason, I'm willing to accept some curtailing of rights for security, but only within reason.
If there are legitimately large groups of people that are destroying and burning things down and tearing things down, and the police say, stay in your home, we're going to deal with this, I say, okay.
It's a very temporary measure meant to stop violent rioting.
If someone says to me, wear a mask, we're in a pandemic, I'll say, okay, whatever, I don't care.
It's not a big deal to wear a mask.
But at what point do we draw that line?
For some people, the line is much closer than it is for me.
For some people, they say, I'm not wearing a mask, you can't make me.
And they get into fights, and you see these videos go viral.
In Europe...
I'm certain that the line has well been crossed when they say you cannot leave your home unless you have papers.
Of course, this has led to a mass exodus of the cities and violent rioting.
For what reason they're doing this, I can only assume COVID, but it definitely feels like the excuse the authoritarians need to enforce draconian laws and stop the populations from doing whatever they want.
I saw someone post about locking things down, using war powers or a national mandate.
And I said, don't you have a line somewhere where you will not accept draconian authority?
I'm not going to allow a government to have that kind of power.
But it's tough.
It is.
Because we're dealing with a pandemic.
And so sometimes there are good reasons.
What do you do?
Perhaps the issue is that no matter what happens, when a society grows large enough, authoritarianism just happens.
You look at China and they're massive and they were welding people into their homes.
But what happens if you actually have an outbreak of some kind of disease or a pandemic that's going to destroy everything?
Do you just let it happen?
I think the issue is, you need to make sure that your population is well prepared to be self-sufficient.
And if they're not, then you have a societal breakdown.
You can't just become the despotic authoritarian dictatorship, because then you've already lost everything.
And I think we're dangerously close in some ways.
I think we're dangerously close if Joe Biden wins, not Donald Trump.
No one is putting up barricades.
No one is putting up fencing because they're scared about Trump supporters.
Nobody is going out and buying guns and guarding their homes because of rampant waves of Trump supporters marching through the streets destroying things.
Well, there may be some people who are buying guns because the media told them the evil far-right will come for them.
Most people buying guns are probably doing it because of the riots.
I have to wonder if the people who are aware of the riots, who've bought guns because of the riots, are going to be voting for Donald Trump.
If that's the case, then suburban women will be voting for Donald Trump.
I don't exactly know what's going to happen.
I do know that DC is going on to a hard, hard lockdown.
And...
There's gonna be a lot of journalists out there.
It's gonna be very dangerous.
And if I had to make a prediction, I'd say people are gonna die.
I'm not making as an extreme prediction as, say, Scott Adams.
You may have seen the segment I did yesterday.
Scott Adams said before, and I mentioned this, that if the Democrats win, Republicans will be hunted.
Of course, he was mocked by basically everybody for it, except for his, you know, his supporters.
And even I rolled my eyes.
Criticized it.
Until they killed Aaron Danielson in Portland where a far leftist literally hunted a Republican, stalked him, and then killed him.
It's not like it's happening in a widespread fashion.
But we can see that what Scott Adams said isn't outside the realm of possibility.
It literally happened.
Will it happen in a mass scale?
I don't know.
But considering we've seen things like that, considering we've seen people get shot randomly, like in Provo, Utah, by the far left, in DC, I would not be surprised if we see death.
I think they're going to burn down tons of buildings.
I think they know exactly what their plans are and they're going to torch and destroy.
In a leaked video we can hear them, as I mentioned, talking about whoever has the guns wins.
The issue right now is that what we haven't seen in the past that we're seeing now Federal employees on the side of the extremists, because the orange man is bad.
Therefore, they have no choice to join in.
Another way to look at it is that the far left has infiltrated our federal government, or at least their ideology has become pervasive among these individuals, and now they're actively organizing with extremists on the far left to destroy the foundation of this country.
There's a reason why we have a written constitution.
It prevents the government from becoming despotic and evil.
Now, the government is becoming despotic and evil in many ways.
Let's talk foreign policy, huh?
But, the constitution has still protected the rights of the citizens.
And so long as we have the written constitution word for word, it is very difficult for them to suppress our rights.
A written constitution cannot be forgotten.
An unspoken constitution can be changed, altered, and argued.
With written words, it's much more difficult.
Our Founding Fathers knew this.
They knew what had happened with the Crown and why they needed to safeguard against these things.
You'll notice no one really ever talks about the Third Amendment.
It's never been an issue.
It was because during the Revolutionary Era, regulars were being placed in the homes of many people in the colonies.
And they felt that this was a violation of people's property rights.
So they created, I believe it's the Third Amendment.
You can't quarter soldiers in people's houses.
Isn't it interesting how they thought that was so important?
Not something we've ever really had to deal with.
But they've taken safeguards against what they see may actually occur.
Some of these things don't really happen.
And it's not really because of the Third Amendment.
We don't need to house soldiers in people's homes anymore.
We can rapidly construct massive buildings, and they can set up tents and other facilities very, very quickly and easily.
The other amendments, however, very much have protected us to a great degree.
Even those who would want to go out and demonstrate.
It's a little bit of a double-edged sword in that capacity.
But right now the left wants to do away with the Constitution.
In an article from the New Republic, they actually argued abolishing the written Constitution and maybe having a spoken one or something like that.
My friends, I feel like we are dangerously close to the precipice.
If not, we've already gone over it a long time ago.
I say that quite a bit, actually.
Since the start of the riots, have we already gone off the edge?
Perhaps we have.
And perhaps the edge was when federal government employees decided to take it upon themselves to destroy a duly elected president, his administration, his supporters, and now do everything in their power, by any means necessary, to shut down the election.
You see, in 2016, Trump wasn't supposed to win, at least for these people.
He did.
We then saw the likes of, you know, Comey and Obama and Biden engage in some nefarious practices, at least to the best of our understanding so far.
The Durham report hasn't come out yet.
We know that there was an effort to either get Michael Flynn, Trump's, at the time, acting national security advisor, fired.
Or prosecuted.
Ultimately, they tried going after him with a Logan Act, but then just got him to plead to lying to the FBI, and apparently, he actually never really did lie to them.
It was just a frame-up.
Now they're not letting the government drop the charges against him.
There's a judge who's actually blocking this, because if Donald Trump loses, they are going to destroy Michael Flynn.
It really does feel like we are facing some kind of revolution, and it's happening in the best way that they could do right now.
There's not going- what people don't understand about how history works, how historical events and politics and war and conflict works, is that it's never just going to be like we saw in the books.
It's never going to be like we saw in the movies.
I think it's funny when people have- like, I was recently watching a video where this YouTuber fires a gun into the air as a warning shot.
There's no such thing as a warning shot, and there's no such- and you don't fire a gun in the air, that's ridiculous.
I saw the gun owner screaming in this video saying, that's a movie myth.
Warning shots.
It's not a thing.
You don't do that.
People think conflict-war-crisis will look like the movies.
It won't.
It'll look like what's happening right now.
Street-level insurgency, and two growing factions with disparate worldviews.
One, on the left, they are constrained by a media apparatus that would tell them what is and is not, and they will blindly believe it.
The other, wildly distrustful of that media apparatus, and they won't believe it.
Unfortunately that means for both factions there are some pitfalls.
On the right side there are people who believe wacky things because they've watched some wacky videos.
On the left it means they believe wacky things because they're being lied to by the media apparatus, notably Russiagate.
Both factions have their faults and both are waged in this cultural civil war.
That may be about to go hot, because I don't think anyone is going to accept the results of the election.
Tomorrow.
Election Day.
The media organizations are not going to give us results.
None of them will.
Donald Trump may try to call victory if it looks like he's won, but they've straight up said the only circumstance in which there will be a victory is if it's a Joe Biden victory.
That's right.
If Joe Biden wins all of these states, they'll just say he won.
If Trump wins all of these states, they'll say, no, we're waiting until the mail-in votes come in.
Which is very, very strange, especially considering so many Democrats have been warning not to mail in your ballots.
Of course, Republicans, many on the right right now, believe the 2018 election was also stolen.
See, I said in 2018 that Republicans were gonna win.
And a day later, I made a video saying, I was right, look at that, Republicans won.
But then something weird happened.
They started to find a bunch of mail-in ballots, saying, oh, these are coming in, we gotta count.
And then, the Democrats flipped everything.
And the Democrats all started cheering, saying, see, we actually won, it was mail-in ballots.
Here's the thing.
There was no COVID in 2018.
Why did so many people mail in their ballots in so many places?
There was no reason for it, and no one ever asked any questions about it.
It just happened.
And then with the power of the House, they moved to impeach Donald Trump.
I don't know.
Maybe Trump really is a Putin and whatever, and maybe it's all crazy.
And maybe both factions are just fighting for power and lying about it in every possible way.
I'll take the side that errs on freedom, and rejects violence, and has signed many peace agreements in the Middle East.
I don't think Donald Trump was supposed to win.
I think they had plans.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, look it, Trump got three appointments.
They thought they were going to take everything, and they didn't.
And if you look at what the World Economic Forum is talking about with the Great Reset, it seems like they lost a really great opportunity with having a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Because now, Donald Trump has only bolstered the economy of the U.S., making it very, very hard for some kind of Great Reset.
If you're not familiar with what it is, you can look at the World Economic Forum's website and read The Great Reset.
They want some kind of reset of Western capitalism, whatever that means.
Very much far-left intersectionality.
These ideologies are fringe and anti-American.
In fact, critical race theory, as it was implemented in the federal government, is a violation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
Trump was right to ban it.
Anyway, I digress.
I'm gonna go on a rant here, so I better wrap it up.
The White House is locked down.
Violence seems extremely likely.
No matter what happens.
No matter who wins.
That's it.
I don't know what comes next.
It's like staring into the void.
I can't make any predictions.
I can only do what I think is right for myself, and what I did was I got away from cities.
I'm away from the cities, for sure.
I can see mountains outside my window.
Bought some guns.
Bought some ammo.
Bought some food.
Not the most hardcore of prepping, to be completely honest.
Probably did a pretty bad job.
So, you know, I'll have all the people on the right saying, Tim, you're not doing good prepping at all.
I know.
Not nearly prepared enough.
The left is going to say, ha ha ha ha, you're so dumb you prepped at all.
Don't care.
You know, I'd much prefer to have a bunker with 30 years of food in it, and not need it, than whatever might end up happening.
That I'll tell you.
Maybe here's what happens.
Maybe Biden or Trump wins, everybody simmers down, and then that's it.
Somehow I don't believe it.
I don't believe it because we've seen widespread riots nonstop.
I don't believe it because the rhetoric has reached insane proportions.
I don't believe it because people have literally been killed on numerous occasions.
And I don't believe it because we've seen what the Obama administration, the Democrats, were willing to do in the lengths they were willing to go in order to destroy Donald Trump and his administration.
In which case, I believe they will stop at nothing.
I guess we'll see.
Next segment's coming up at 1 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all then.
Joe Biden himself has been campaigning, but he's going to need some help.
Fortunately for him, he's getting help from one of the most powerful Democrat players alive today, Mr. former President Barack Obama.
Unfortunately, no amount of charisma from someone else will justify why Joe Biden should actually be president.
And at a recent rally, the Daily Mail reports, the man who could be America's next president in three days, Barack Obama had to call Joe Biden three times before he finally emerged at Michigan rally, then had to remind him to put his mask back on and help guide him off the stage.
This guy might be president.
My friends, Joe Biden has offered this country something real, something tangible.
unidentified
And I know many people might be saying, Tim, Donald Trump must win.
Okay, but But Donald Trump has not offered us what Joe Biden is.
Joe Biden has promised to mobilize Trinidad and Shabbat oppression and said that Badakath care is a right for everyone in this country.
And that's something Trump can't bring us.
You know why?
Because Trump doesn't know what it is, and neither do I. But I'm really interested in finding out what it means to mobilize Trinidad and Shabbat oppression.
And I'm really interested to see what this new dangfangled Badakath care really is.
Ladies and gentlemen, Barack Obama had to help guide Joe Biden off stage.
Why?
Because he is a fumbly bumbly grandpa man.
Come on.
It is.
Look, I've seen it.
It's sad.
We all get old.
And I mean this in no disrespect to Joe Biden, his life and his legacy.
Maybe a little bit because I'm not a fan of his warmongering with Barack Obama.
But you got old grandpa up on stage.
He doesn't know what's going on.
You gotta call his name several times.
And please, explain to me how it is that a man who has gone up on stage and said he will mobilize Truman Inanna Shabba Da Pressure is going to become president.
Here's my... I'm gonna say it.
I'm just gonna say it.
If Joe Biden gets elected, it proves that we are a nation of idiots.
If Donald Trump gets elected, it proves we're a nation of a-holes.
That's just the way I see it.
If you want to be— Look, the people who vote for Donald Trump are doing it because he really is going to help this country.
He really did bolster the economy, secure our borders, and bring back manufacturing jobs.
Far from perfect, but man is this guy a dick.
It's true, and it shows that many people in America, not all of them, are rolling their eyes saying, OK, well, Trump is the best choice we have, but to vote for someone like that is to vote for a guy who's kind of a dick.
And that's probably an understatement.
But I'd rather be—you know what I said on Twitter?
I'd rather be an a-hole—I'd rather vote for the a-hole than the coward.
You know, and I call Joe Biden a coward because he's hiding in his basement while these riots are kicking off.
But I'll tell you right now, as most of you know, Donald Trump's not even really running against Joe Biden.
And that's why people would vote for him.
People are running against the mainstream media.
And that's the reality of it.
It's the mainstream media.
The things they say.
As Matt Taibbi wrote today, Donald Trump is the most lying president, but the most lied about president.
And I think that's a fair statement.
But I gotta say, you know, when they say that he's like Trump lies the most of any president, he lies about dumb things.
You know, Gad Saad, if you follow him, he's on Joe Rogan, and he's like, Donald Trump lies about like, all the women love me and I come in and they're hugging me and I got the biggest, you know, whatever, you know, that's what Gad Saad said.
And that's it.
Trump lies about stupid things.
But the media lies about important things.
They are propping up a man who is just, as The Atlantic put it, corporeal form.
That's what they said.
The Atlantic said, stay alive, Joe Biden.
We only need your corporeal form.
Then why didn't you run literally anyone else?
I'll take a Buttigieg.
Come on.
Nope.
Maybe it's because they know they're going to lose, and they don't want to waste a fresh-faced, up-and-coming young star on an election they can't win.
But the polls are saying Donald Trump's going to lose, and it is a minority of forecasts predicting a Donald Trump victory.
I don't know if y'all have seen the video, but there's a really funny video of this, like, young woman doing an astrology reading, and giving all of her reasons, like, the seventh axis of Joe Biden is an eclipse, which coincides with victory, and Kamala Harris, too, and her something is spiking, and then she's like, and Jupiter and Mercury are, like, in alignment, and that means there's gonna be a revolution.
I don't know what she's talking about, I don't know nothing about this astrology stuff, but I gotta tell you, it makes more sense, and I mean this literally, it's more convincing than anything I've heard from any of these polls.
My experience, in my life, when I go around and talk to people, it's people leaving the Democratic Party to join the Republicans.
And these are regular people I live by.
These are regular people in my neighborhood.
Now I will say, There was a blue Lives Matter flag near where I live, and then after the debate, it was gone.
The first debate, it was gone.
And instead, the next door neighbor had a Biden sign put up.
I wonder if that has, you know, I wonder what that means.
Maybe there really are more Democrats leaving and voting for Joe Biden, but I just can't buy it.
Because I don't believe we're a nation of idiots.
It's like, think about it this way.
Joe Biden, it's my understanding, would be the first president with no coalition, with no active base.
Seriously.
Think about it.
Every president has had their fervent base of supporters.
Every president.
Okay, maybe not every president, but in modern history, there were groups of people like, yes, this person is my candidate.
Not Joe Biden.
Sorry.
It's the media versus Trump, and it's people who think I hate Trump, or Trump is not that bad, or I like Trump.
The question is, will the hatred for Trump result in a president who can't speak English?
I gotta be honest with you.
I will laugh, and I really mean it, if Joe Biden wins.
I'm gonna put my feet up, and I'm gonna laugh, same as I laughed in 2016 when Trump won.
You know, I am worried.
I am worried because a Joe Biden victory, which does, there's a lot of good, there's a lot of reasons to believe Joe Biden's going to win.
We'll see.
A Joe Biden victory would mean that we have decided our commander-in-chief should be an ineffected, sleepy old man who needs help getting off of a stage, misses his cue, and can't say words.
I'm just, I'm really excited, right?
Tru-in-in-a-na-sha-ba-de-pri-sure.
I listened to him say that over and over again to make sure I heard, and I transcribed it.
And he says, we believe that Batacath care is a right!
Batacath care.
I have no idea what these words mean, but just think about how awesome this is.
Joe Biden's going to be sitting down with like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, and he's going to be like, you know, eyes half closed.
And then, you know, Vladimir is going to be like, we want to play strategic nukes all over the Pacific Ocean in a toll base built by China.
And then Joe Biden's going to be like, and they're going to be like, uh-huh.
And that's it.
That's our leader.
That's our commander in chief.
True in and out of Shabbat, a pressure.
I love it.
Okay, okay.
Well, the reality is...
It's not just about Joe Biden.
It's about who are we really up against right now.
The media.
Let me show you something.
I got this really great story from Politico magazine.
The worst political predictions of 2016.
It was another rocky year for the political sages.
This is from December 28, 2016.
And I want to show you the journalists getting mocked for being wrong, wrong, wrong.
Before I do, however, I want to show you RealClearPolitics.
Now, RealClearPolitics is not leftist.
I mean, they ran a bunch of stories defending Trump and the Ukraine scandal, and now they're running this story from Bill Sher.
Biden will win.
Republicans should understand why.
In this story, he goes through all of the things that have changed since 2016.
And they're good points.
Look, people really hated Hillary Clinton.
Like, loathed, despised Hillary Clinton.
And they were still, still she wins the popular vote.
Joe Biden's nothing.
I think what we're seeing in this election is unprecedented.
They want Fumbly Bumbly Joe.
They want the old man being guided offstage.
You know why?
You can't get mad about it.
I mean, you could be mad that our president will be incapable of functioning.
Well, that's why they gave us Kamala Harris, who everyone seems to hate, but hey, better than nothing.
Here's what I think they're thinking.
We don't want to put up a candidate who actually has to go up against Trump.
We want a paper tiger.
We want a man made of straw.
Not a straw man, but like a literal scarecrow.
That's all Joe Biden is.
A scarecrow for the Democratic Party.
Ooh, don't vote for Trump!
At least this guy's standing up and put on a post.
The idea is, with Joe Biden running, you're not voting for him.
You're voting against Trump, and you're putting in nothing.
Vanilla yogurt.
Nothing.
Now, it's really, really bad for us in a lot of ways, but what they'll do is they'll put Joe Biden in a wheelchair, they'll cart him off into the sunroom, and they'll put a little burlap bag or whatever on his lap, and he'll fall asleep and snore while the cabinet administration take care of all the duties of the presidency.
And Joe Biden, the biggest concern is, will he actually make it?
You know, beyond a first term.
I'm not entirely convinced.
You know, and I want to be serious for a second.
Ask anyone who has got any experience dealing with the elderly.
What true and non-ashabha depression and batikath care represent?
And I'm not, I'm not being silly right now.
I know, I know, funny words.
No, it represents the man's cognitive decline, which has been accelerating.
It's one thing when the man stutters and stumbles, and they say, oh, he was fighting off a stutter since he was a kid.
No, dude.
He's nearing 80 years old, and he's struggling to speak.
The man is not up to the task.
People will tell you, the rate of cognitive decline of Joe Biden seems fairly obvious.
Donald Trump, whoo, that man is spry.
He's doing five, he went to five states in one day, or some ridiculous number like that.
Is that what he did?
Five states in one day?
What is this?
The dude has got more energy than I do.
Well, maybe not more than me, but a lot of people.
I work 16 hour days, so it's probably unfair for me to claim Trump has more energy than I do, but comparable to say the least.
Or maybe.
I mean, I get tired.
This dude seems to be, I don't know if Trump's on uppers or what's he doing, but man, the guy's got energy.
Something Joe Biden does not have.
Well, let me show you the story.
They say, Joe Biden is going to win.
I have been wrong before, I will be wrong again, and maybe I am wrong today.
But we do not have any significant data to suggest Donald Trump was ever in a position to win re-election, or that he is closing the campaign with any sort of momentum needed for a come-from-behind victory.
Four years ago, we did have that data.
In the RealClearPolitics National Polling Average, Hillary Clinton's lead shrunk nearly six points between October 18th and November 3rd, before ticking up a bit at the end.
Her share of support throughout the duration of the general election campaign never reached 50%, an indication of soft support.
Moreover, the Trump train was clearly accelerating in those final two weeks.
If you looked at RCP state poll averages, Clinton's Michigan lead plummeted from 10 to 3.6 points, and her Pennsylvania lead narrowed from 5.6 to 2.1.
In Florida and North Carolina, Trump erased Clinton's small leads completely to become, however barely, the frontrunner.
Trump also took the lead in Ohio in mid-October and never looked back.
I want to point something out.
We're going to see historic voter turnout, even when the economy was doing really, really well.
Moody's Analytics said, if the Democrats can muster historic voter turnout, they will win by nine electoral votes.
Low-information voters will vote Democrat.
First-time voters.
Stands to reason the Democrats have that, and you also have the COVID crisis, and there's good reason to believe the Democrats will win.
Now, I'm no one's fool.
I'm not going to be stupid enough to sit here and say, I know what's gonna happen, because this guy certainly thinks he's brave enough to do so.
It's a 50-50 shot on paper, but we don't know what the actual stats are.
This guy's probably looking at the polls and saying, it's a 90% chance I'm right.
I'm gonna fire it.
I'm gonna take a shot.
Maybe he's right.
I'm not playing that game.
I am not so sure.
You know why?
Because we know from 2016 the mistakes they've made.
We have a whole list of all of the things they got wrong.
So why should I be convinced that Trump is going to lose?
What if Trump wins through legal disputes?
Technicalities?
What are you gonna do?
Oh, I wasn't wrong, it's just Trump.
No, you don't know.
You have no idea what's gonna happen.
To be fair, FiveThirtyEight has said this as well, saying, we don't know how legal disputes will play out, how mail-in voting disputes will play out.
It looks like based on polling, Biden will win, but maybe that's why Donald Trump will win.
My friends, take a look.
First prediction, Hillary Clinton will be president.
Frank Luntz on Twitter, November 8th, 2016, Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States.
Frank, Frankie boy, I think you do good work for the most part, but you were wrong about that.
You see, people thought they were safe.
The models were forecasting a heavy Hillary win.
They were wrong.
Did these people learn their lesson?
No.
They got Florida wrong in 2018, two years later.
I'm not playing games with y'all.
I have no idea who's going to win, nor am I ever going to be stupid enough to claim Trump will win.
In the past several videos I've done on my main channel, I've said, forecast says Trump is gonna win, here's why Trump might win, and the point is, the mainstream media only gives you the forecasts, for the most part, showing Trump losing.
And I think it's fair to point out there are legitimate forecasts and polls saying Trump is winning, or can win.
I believe the odds are against him, but we have the Republican surge model from CBS showing Trump winning by nine electoral votes.
The Republican surge model, I kid you not, from CBS says, if Trump supporters vote, he'll win.
You think Trump supporters aren't gonna go out and vote?
They're driving around in cars, waving flags, screaming.
Sure, maybe.
Maybe there'll be people who don't vote for whatever reason.
If Trump supporters show up on election day, he wins.
Now, we don't know what's going to happen because of mail-in voting.
There's an indeterminate amount of mail-in ballots that could appear randomly after the election.
Trump's going to probably fight those.
We'll see what happens.
Here's the next prediction.
Trump won't be the Republican nominee.
Dana Milbank, The Washington Post, October 2, 2015, quote, I'm so certain Trump won't win the nomination that I'll eat my words if he does.
Literally.
The day Trump clinches the nomination, I will eat the page on which this column is printed in Sunday's Post.
Yikes!
That was a bad one.
See, I'm not gonna do that.
A lot of people are like, I'll eat my head if I do this.
You'd think I should be able to look at the polls and say, Trump will lose!
Just like this guy will.
Trump will lose!
I can't tell you that.
I can't.
I have no idea.
But I'm pretty sure that if Trump wins, someone will take a clip from that I just said and play it like, aha, look, Tim said Trump was going to lose.
He's wrong.
No, I have no idea.
I look at these polls and then I see the uncertainty and the fear in the eyes of the pollsters saying, but wait, wait, wait, we're saying Trump could still win.
We have no idea.
They have no idea, do they?
I don't know if she ever actually... In May, Milbank came through on his promise in what may have been the least humble way.
He sought the assistance of readers, acclaimed chefs, and food critics to make swallowing literal newsprint the most enjoyable it could be.
Dana Milbank literally cooked the page of his story and ate his own words.
Now, I have to say, they're saying it's the least humble way because he prepared a meal based on his own words.
No, no, no, no.
This is in fact, I believe, the most respectful.
Think about it.
Of course, everybody wanted him to just eat a raw piece of paper.
No, no.
I like that he put the work into it.
This is amazing.
Look at this guy.
He put on the apron.
He had a chef come in.
They prepared.
He went above and beyond as far as I'm concerned.
That was awesome.
Good job, Dana Milbank, eating your words because you were wrong.
Bill Kristol said, There will be an independent candidate, an impressive one, with a strong team and a real chance.
I don't think that was the worst prediction.
I think Gary Johnson made some mistakes, but he was polling really well in some polls.
Like, I think he was over 5% in several polls.
His average dropped down to around 4 or so.
So maybe it's a bad prediction.
But there was, I mean, it's some of the best third party we've seen for a long time.
The Republican National Convention will be contested, said John Kasich.
Nobody's going to have the delegates they need going to the convention.
Everyone will fall short.
That was wrong.
Women will form a firewall for Clinton against Trump.
From the Washington Post, Daily 202.
College-educated white women are Hillary Clinton's firewall.
Wrong.
Red states will go blue.
Kyle Kondik, Politico Magazine, November 3, 2015.
Carson and Trump.
through their lack of experience and long histories of overheated rhetoric, could even prompt a wholesale rejection of the Republicans in certain districts down the ticket, effectively making 2016 a Democratic wave year.
But I wonder, with everyone saying right now Democrats will take the House, they'll take the Senate, Republicans are going to lose, Trump is going to lose, is this going to be comeuppance for Republicans?
Some seem to think so.
Mitch McConnell's pushing through, he pushed through Amy Coney Barrett and said at the next election this is going to be undone.
He said sooner or later this will be undone by the next election, so, you know, this they can't do anything about for a very long time.
Oh, they'll pack the courts maybe, we'll see.
But maybe Republicans think comeuppance is here, and they got lucky with the time they had.
I don't know.
Perhaps.
Perhaps people don't actually vote based on who they want.
They vote based on, if things are bad now, vote for someone else, which is the stupidest thing ever.
But Gallup says most people think they're doing better now.
Would they want to go back to stagnation, or do they think that Joe Biden can maintain the economy as it is today?
I think Joe Biden's gonna be a nightmare for this country in a lot of ways.
Prediction.
Hillary Clinton will defeat Bernie Sanders in the Michigan Democratic primary in a landslide.
Hillary Clinton has got a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.
You see, we talk about things being wrong.
When we talk about the polls being wrong in 2016, what people don't realize is all of the polls they got wrong before and after.
This was one of the biggest blunders 538 could have ever had.
They say it should have been a warning sign for the Clinton campaign and for the data gurus when not a single poll in the entire state of Michigan had Bernie Sanders trailing by less than five points.
But heading into March 8th, Team Clinton as well as the pundits nationwide were confident Michigan would stay in Hillary's camp.
Thanks to her solid debate performance in Flint and her stronghold of African-American support.
And yet the Democratic Socialist from Vermont, bolstered by a record-high youth vote and impressive turnout of independents, pulled off a surprising upset that gave a burst of new life to his trailing primary campaign.
Bernie Sanders won Michigan.
That's right.
Merrick Garland will be confirmed.
Harry Reid, March 17th, 2016.
I'm confident he is going to get approval.
Well, that was wrong.
The United Kingdom won't vote to leave the EU.
Matthew Shattuck, International Business Times.
That's right.
These were all major failures.
And this article is from 2016.
Major, major failures.
So, good sirs of RealClearPolitics, while I believe you've got a lot of data backing up your claims, I think the fundamental changes of internet communications, COVID, the unemployment rate, the mass exodus from major cities, and the secret Trump voter, which I know for a fact exists, are skewing your polls in such a way it may be a magnificent bit of karmic justice for all of these people who think they're smarter and better than everyone else to realize you're wrong.
Now that happened in 2016.
Maybe lightning won't strike twice, or maybe we're confused.
Maybe it's not lightning striking twice.
Maybe it's that the high tide is finally coming in, the waters are rising.
And only now are we going to check to see where the level is at.
Not that it was a rare occurrence, but that it was entirely predictable.
The secret Trump voter exists because I know many of them.
People who say they're terrified to speak up.
People who tell me don't let anyone know that I'm supporting Trump.
They are.
I have celebrities who have messaged me on Twitter saying that they are terrified if anyone finds out they will lose all their endorsements.
No joke.
You think a celebrity.
Who's got endorsements from, you know, these clothing companies, Gucci and whatever, and these music producers.
You think they're gonna keep their job if they come out?
No way.
Now, it's terrifying, actually.
Because if these people did come out and say, you have to vote for Trump, they may risk everything.
But they also risk winning everything.
That's the important point.
Maybe you lose your job.
But maybe you will finally be able to call out to your supporters and fans and tell them to do the right thing.
I implore all of those celebrities who have followed me to come out now and publicly endorse
the president if you believe in him and tell your supporters to vote for him.
If you really think, and I know many of you do because you've messaged me saying Trump
must win.
If he must win, then you must come out and put yourself on the line to stand up for what
you believe in and encourage others to be as courageous as you are.
I already voted for Trump and the Republicans.
It's time for you all to come out and say the same thing and stop being scared.
Because if you truly were worried about a Biden presidency, then you would do what you had to do to make sure Trump won, even if it means risks to your career.
You need to come out and you need to use your voice, be it large or small, to tell others you have to vote for Trump.
Otherwise, he'll lose.
And I want you to remember this, as we're entering now the final stretch.
I want you to imagine one month from now, one year from now, what the world may look like with everything you've seen.
And I want you to then publicly admit that you could have done more and you chose not to because you were scared.
I assure you that is a future you do not want to experience.
At the very least, you may risk everything but speaking up now, the most important thing you can do, you will never regret.
It may come down to really awful times in the future, and Trump may still lose.
At least that's what they're saying.
But maybe, if a wave of celebrities and high-profile individuals and activists and musicians and skateboarders came out right now and said, Vote Trump, things would change dramatically.
Maybe.
I got more segments for you later today.
Next one's coming up at 4 p.m.
over at youtube.com slash timcast.
It is a different channel from this one.
It's my main channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all there.
Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, and the Squad and all the other progressive far leftists have a plan for some kind of social credit reporting system.
I don't know exactly how it would work, but James Lindsay tweets, Biden aims to set up an equity-based credit scoring system that takes identity factors like race and sex into account.
This is part of his unity plan with the Democratic Socialist wing of his party, Sanders and AOC.
And he links to this story, or this article, from the Consumer Data Industry Association.
I'm going to read you the first paragraph, then I want to show you what Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have actually said.
They say, As the candidate for the Democratic primary has dwindled to former Vice President Joe Biden, we were waiting to see which stance his campaign would take on consumer reporting industry.
In our former blog post, The Data Debate – Presidential Candidates on Consumer Data, we outlined the stances of the candidates on the credit reporting industry, but Biden was one of the only candidates to not have a plan for that.
In a recent 110-page publication titled, Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force Recommendation, he now has a plan for the industry.
Before I read further, I want to show you what he actually says in terms of ensuring equitable access to banking and financial services, and then what they say about credit scoring.
In the actual document, this is what I have pulled up, the actual document from JoeBiden.com, they say, 1 in 4 American households are either unbanked or underbanked, putting them at risk of losing money due to exorbitant fees or usurious interest rates.
Democrats will support and encourage congressional efforts to guarantee affordable, transparent, trustworthy banking services for low- and middle-income families, including bank accounts and real-time payment systems through the Federal Reserve and easily accessible service locations.
including postal banking. Democrats will also expand access to credit by creating a public
credit reporting agency to provide a non-discriminatory credit reporting alternative
to the private agencies, and will require its use by all federal lending programs,
including home lending and student loans. Okay, there it is.
It's true, they're going to create it.
What does that mean and how does it work?
Honestly, we don't know.
But a non-discriminatory credit reporting alternative is very strange, considering credit reporting agencies already have to adhere to the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
They say, The feds will be required to use it.
And we will reinvigorate the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to ensure that banks and lenders cannot prey upon consumers.
The scars of the financial crisis, blah, blah, blah.
Closing the racial wealth gap, they say.
The extreme gap in household wealth and income between people of color, especially black Americans and white families, is hurting our working class and holding our country back.
Democrats are committed to a comprehensive agenda to achieve racial equity.
That means improving economic mobility for people of color, including by addressing the wealth gap.
In addition to expanding access to credit, working to boost homeownership and build more
affordable housing, and supporting minority-owned small businesses, Democrats recognize that
racial wealth gaps are rooted in long-standing discrimination and unjust policies that continue
to depress the economic and social prosperity of people of color.
To provide more Americans the right to enjoy the economic and social benefits of wealth
building, we will equalize established pathways for building wealth while exploring innovative
approaches to closing racial wealth gaps, including policies that provide seed capital
in order to access the economic security of asset ownership.
I believe that will be a violation of the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
You cannot offer up grants to one race.
Maybe there's something I don't understand about the policies, but it seems like this would be illegal.
The black unemployment rate is persistently higher than the national average, while under Trump he's reduced that dramatically.
I'd like to show you this tweet from Andrew Sullivan.
He says, Biden-Harris backs the enforcement of equality of outcomes for everyone in America.
What else could this mean?
And there's an image that says, equitable treatment means we all end up at the same place.
Giving people resources so that we all end up in the same place is communism.
Now, I know the left is going to say, haha, Tim's talking about communism, what an idiot.
It is.
In this image put out by Kamala Harris, or I should say by the Biden-Harris campaign, or whoever, I don't know who put it out, but it's promoting the Biden-Harris campaign.
There's an image showing a mountain, a white guy standing on the ground, and then it's like sunken ground well below where the black person is.
They throw the ropes down at the same length, but the black person can't reach the ropes.
They say, see?
Simply providing the same resources and telling everyone to compete isn't fair.
We need to provide everyone with the resources, and then flowers bloom and the ground grows, so that we can all end up at the same place.
We don't want to end up in the same place.
Meritocracy is the point.
The people who know how to do things and succeed, succeed and then help everyone else.
It reminds me of the farming and food shortages, the farming crisis and food shortages we've seen from communism, where they take away the land from the landowner, the farmer, and give it to the workers.
The workers don't know how to manage a farm.
The farm collapses.
Everyone starves.
That's the point.
Well, it's true, as I've shown you.
In their unity plan, they want to create a new reporting agency that will be non-discriminatory.
We know what their language is and what it means.
When they say non-discriminatory, what they're really saying is, well, we need to give certain groups a leg up, which is literal discrimination.
They're arguing it's not racist because they're helping.
It is racist.
Now, the CDIA says, The document comes on the heels of the Democratic Convention to be held in Milwaukee this August 17th.
This is an old document, by the way.
It is a first attempt to unify the party and prove to the Bernie coalition that Biden has not forgotten them.
The document lays out the policies where the moderate Joe Biden will meet the Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders and other task force members like AOC.
Author of the Green New Deal.
They uniformly agree that the existing wealth gap, and rightfully so, is ever-expanding in our country, and propose policies to lift this economic anchor that is dragging the working poor down.
What is clearly missing in this document is the absence of Medicare for All and the Green New Deal, the two most important legislative proposals to Bernie and AOC's followers.
Biden is willing to agree to some leftist proposals, but on his moderate terms.
They say, we have spoken of privacy legislative proposals in the past that create Privacy Bill of Rights, preempt states or not, and some build upon the CFPB or the FTC and others, blah blah blah.
Okay, so, anyway.
They're talking about the unity agreement, which is kind of a waste of space.
Makes it really hard to actually break down what these things mean.
But in this document, they actually mention they don't know how this credit agency would work because they already have to follow non-discrimination rules.
The theme of the Unity document in this country is the country's income inequality gap, no doubt spurred by the recent protests killing George Floyd, etc.
The Unity Task Force members foresee the closing of the income inequality gap by creating a new agency within the CFPB that would provide an alternative to the three credit bureaus.
The Public Credit Reporting Agency is an attempt to provide a non-discriminatory credit reporting alternative to the private agencies.
The policy announcement said it would require all federal lending programs to use the Public Credit Reporting Agency to evaluate borrowers' creditworthiness, including for home lending and student loans, two of the most enabling factors when acquiring wealth in our country today.
Of course, under FCRA, the three credit bureaus cannot see the race of consumers, nor the sex or orientation.
How they will determine the race of individuals is yet to be seen, but perhaps a rewriting of FCRA or other governing laws would be a means to do so.
Quite simply, Joe Biden does plan to create a new agency that will report credit.
It would be built upon the ideas of equity, which means, very likely, your credit score will be determined based on the color of your skin.
How about that?
Imagine that.
One day you go in and they say, you need a credit score of 850, but yours is 740, and I can see one of the factors is that you're white, or you're a man, or you're straight.
And thus, they are creating a path towards, if you're a disabled, non-white, trans, bi, you know, whatever, Your credit score would be a lot higher.
Or at least your access to capital in these agencies.
They said equitable.
Okay?
They said equitable.
And using this to determine whether or not you can get loans for colleges or whatever.
That means you will get benefits from being anything but a white male, to varying degrees.
So I wouldn't call it a social credit system in the same sense that China is doing it, like if you're mean to someone, your score goes down.
This one's going to be, in my opinion, worse.
Something I think would destroy the fabric of this country and lead to a very horrifying reality in the future.
People being judged based on the color of their skin.
The left is opening the door for this.
And the CDIA says, perhaps they need to rewrite the law to get this done.
Because the credit agencies aren't allowed to use race as a factor.
Racism actually is illegal in institutions.
But they are trying their hardest to create institutional racism.
Like Affirmative Action, and now this program.
These are the kind of things that scare me about a Joe Biden victory.
So I hope you have all been paying attention about what happens if Joe Biden wins.
Maybe it won't happen overnight.
Maybe it won't be in his first term.
Maybe it won't even be in Joe Biden's term.
Maybe it'll be after the fact, once the establishment takes control and then keeps propping up their candidates and a Republican never wins again.
The idea that they would create an agency that would judge people based on race is horrifying to me.
And I think we've already seen what happens when you do this.
We actually fought to stop it.
Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.
fought to stop it and he succeeded.
And now they mean to do away with these protections.
I don't know what's in store for us.
I'm not a psychic.
But it does have me worried.
I'll leave it there.
Next segment's coming up in a few minutes.
Stick around and I will see you all shortly.
Conservatives are outraged!
And for good measure.
I love how the media is always like, Conservatives, pounce!
Now this time they're mad because the Attorney General from Pennsylvania basically already called the election for Joe Biden, and that's supposed to be against the rules on social media.
Twitter doesn't care.
And it should be some kind of electoral violation, I have no idea.
But here's what he said.
Josh Shapiro tweeted, If all the votes are added up in PA, Trump is going to lose.
That's why he's working overtime to subtract as many votes as possible from this process.
For the record, he's 0-6 against us in court.
We've protected voting rights. Now ignore the noise and vote.
Immediately, people started posting, Bruh, you can't do this.
You say Trump will lose no matter what.
People are going to think you are cheating and you're trying to intimidate voters and suppress voters.
And now people are calling for some kind of action.
We got a story here, though, from the National Review that breaks down why it's so egregious, considering Pennsylvania is the most important state by most forecast models, and it's been a disaster.
The National Review says, Pennsylvania's attorney general makes a bad situation worse.
No state in the union can match Pennsylvania's perfect combination of electoral college importance and potentially messy ballot counting problems.
Up until this year, the state had strict requirements for absentee voting.
In light of the pandemic, the state massively expanded it.
But now, the state worries about how many voters will forget to place their completed ballots inside a provided secrecy envelope and have their ballots disqualified.
You know what I don't get about this?
I voted by mail.
Well, I should say, I got a ballot in the mail.
I dropped it off in person.
I opened it, looked at the envelopes they gave me, and said, OK.
Read the instructions, filled it out, and I was done.
Why is this only happening in Pennsylvania?
What about all the other states where secrecy ballots may cause serious problems?
This year the state rejected 372,000 absentee ballot applications.
More than 90% of those applications, or about 336, were denied as duplicates, primarily because people who had requested mail-in ballots for the state's June 2nd primary did not realize they had checked a box to be sent ballots for the general election too.
Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh, and is the second most populous county in the state, accidentally sent out 29,000 copies of the wrong ballot to voters earlier this month, giving people ballots for races in other districts.
The county is sending out replacement ballots.
All in a state where Biden leads the polls in aggregate by about two points more than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.
In 2016, President Trump won Pennsylvania by about 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast.
That's crazy.
How could anyone make this situation worse?
How about Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania's state attorney general, and the man who enforces the state's election laws, declaring via Twitter that there is no legitimate way for Trump to win the state?
And that's the tweet I showed you.
Most state attorneys general are elected officials, almost always with a party affiliation, and perhaps in a heavily polarized era, more partisan language from them is unavoidable.
But because of their law enforcement duties, states' attorneys general need to at least try to maintain trust across the aisle.
Shapiro just engaged in wildly partisan hyperbole and gave every Trump voter every reason to view Shapiro's office and Pennsylvania law enforcement as a partisan operator regarding this election.
And in a state so important, Pennsylvania, this is insane.
The Attorney General is trying to make you believe that Trump is the one subverting the election.
When you could easily say, so is he.
With that tweet.
Exactly with that tweet.
Why should anyone now trust that he has the intention to honor the votes when he said there is no legitimate way for Donald Trump to win Pennsylvania?
No one trusts the election right now.
The left says Trump is cheating.
They say the Republicans are suppressing votes.
And on the right, they believe that mail-in voting will lead to widespread voter fraud.
I don't know what to tell you.
But I'll say this.
I don't trust anyone who would argue for changing the rules in the 11th hour unilaterally.
And that's what they've been doing.
And when Donald Trump and his campaign begin suing over these rule changes, they've won some and they've lost many.
The left says that Donald Trump is the bad guy, and they're suing to suppress the votes.
It's all manipulation.
Here's what they say.
At the beginning of the year, Yuval Levin wrote, What stands out about our era in particular is a distinct
kind of institutional dereliction, a failure even to attempt to form trustworthy people, and a
tendency to think of institutions not as molds of character and behavior, but as platforms
for performance and prominence.
Rather than work through the institution, they use it as a stage to elevate themselves,
raise their profiles, and perform for the cameras in the reality show of our unceasing culture war.
Shapiro just gave Levin one more high-profile example.
I'm sorry.
I personally don't trust the election.
And I know most of you probably don't either.
And I don't know what to expect.
No one's going to accept the results of this election.
And what will that lead to?
I don't know.
I talked about widespread violence.
I've talked about people boarding up their buildings all across this country.
And I'm worried now that Pennsylvania has done something.
This attorney general has said something that has given all of the fuel to make sure there will never be certainty in Pennsylvania because he's already announced Trump can't win.
Trump can't, no matter what.
Sorry.
He's the one enforcing the law.
You know what that says to me?
Let's say a batch of ballots come in.
Questionable.
He says, who are the ballots for?
Joe Biden?
Well, those are probably okay.
We have a similar batch of ballots.
Who are they for?
Trump.
I don't know.
Probably should be safe and get rid of those, right?
The left accused Georgia of cheating because Stacey Abrams lost.
I can't imagine that anyone's going to expect this to be resolved peacefully and amicably.
And that's why I'm kind of worried.
But you know, I was thinking of something that's kind of funny.
I'm seeing all these photos from across the country.
In L.A., they're boarding up businesses in New York, in Washington, D.C., just basically everywhere they're boarding things up.
And they're not boarding things up because they're worried that Trump supporters are going to come out and smash things.
They're doing it because they're worried that the left is going to come out and smash things.
And then I thought about it.
You know what's funny?
The polls telling us that everyone's going to vote for Joe Biden and that Trump can't win in Pennsylvania?
They're rioting in Philadelphia.
So you mean to tell me that all of these people in Philly who are begging for law enforcement and the National Guard and boarding up their businesses are saying, Those—those dang leftists coming here to smash up our businesses.
Better vote for Joe Biden, the guy whose campaign bailed the rioters out, and Kamala Harris, who solicited donation to bail the rioters out.
Do these people have amnesia?
The riots are happening in Philadelphia, like, right now.
I mean, they happened a couple days ago.
The National Guard was deployed because of the far left.
There's no way Trump can win, huh?
These people.
You're telling me.
I'm not going to insult the people.
You're telling me that the polls suggest that these people will vote for Joe Biden.
But the actions I see them engaging in show that they're scared of the left.
They're worried about leftists destroying their businesses.
So I don't think they're going to vote for you.
No, I know.
They like to say, Joe Biden doesn't support Antifa.
Come on.
And Joe Biden did recently just denounce the violence.
My respect, Joe.
Thank you for denouncing the violence.
Did he call out Antifa or Black Lives Matter?
No.
He didn't.
So who are you denouncing?
Why, Donald Trump may be the president who has denounced and disavowed white supremacy more than any other president.
I mean it.
It's true.
More so.
And what about Joe Biden announcing Antifa?
Why, I believe he's not even said their name.
He said, poor boys.
Remember?
Poor boys.
You don't even know what you're talking about.
The American people know what your campaign did.
They know what Kamala Harris did.
And they're worried about it.
They're worried about these lunatics storming through the streets, smashing everything.
And it's going to happen.
Election Day is in, at the time of this recording, what?
I mean, eight hours?
The last six hours?
Until Election Day.
And everyone is scared about what's going to happen.
And we're supposed to expect that those who supported the rioters, who defended them, who allowed them to take our statues down, are going to give us a fair and honest election?
I don't buy it, and it's scary.
I don't know what to expect.
I don't know who to trust.
But I will leave you with one thought.
I'll probably be banned from YouTube and social media in the coming weeks, as will many other people.
There's already been a major purge of individuals they can't post now until the new year.
No joke, the new year.
Why?
Why are they banning so many people, and why are the people who are being banned conservative?
It's very strange.
I can only imagine they'll ban me because news will come out suggesting there's some impropriety, and if I try to report it, then social media's gonna say, you're questioning the integrity of our elections.
You know, I mentioned earlier in the day that hilarious astrology video from that woman saying Joe Biden's gonna win because there's an eclipse in his seventh house axis and like, whatever.
But I gotta say, she mentions that there's some like weird planetary alignment that suggests a whole new reality for America.
And while I don't believe any of that mumbo jumbo, I thought to myself, we could be facing a whole new reality in America.
If our institutions are destroyed, if the courts are packed, so you know what?
Her prediction might come true.
Unfortunately, she'll then believe it's because of her planetary alignment mumbo-jumbo, but maybe she's not wrong.
I'll leave it there.
Stick around, I got one more segment coming up in a few minutes, and I will see you all shortly.
Joe Biden has said that under no scenario will Trump be declared winner on election night.
And maybe you think Joe Biden's just being fair because we're not going to get the results of the election for quite some time.
Good old Joe being honest and truthful.
Except they're also not ruling out declaring victory for themselves.
And what we've already heard from many of the social media companies is If Donald Trump declares victory, they will flag or remove his posts.
If Joe Biden declares victory, well, that's just fine, isn't it?
Because they've all arbitrarily decided that if any mail-in votes come in, they're going to be for Joe Biden.
That makes literally no sense.
And FiveThirtyEight already said, Nate Silver, that it's likely mail-in ballots arriving late will actually favor Republicans because Democrats are turning theirs in at twice the rate they've requested them.
Meaning, Democrats are mostly turning their ballots in already.
Republicans aren't.
So, votes late should be for Trump.
So why are they saying all this, and why should I trust them?
That's the scary thing.
I don't know.
I have been given no reason that I can understand by the media that mail-in ballots arriving late will be Democrat votes.
It makes no sense.
Now think about it.
They say, well, it's because they can't count mail-in ballots until Election Day.
So they count mail-in ballots the same as ballots?
Why would those be delayed?
You count them the same as the ones you're counting on election day.
So you have a bunch of ballots on the same day.
Why would you differentiate between the two?
Is there some kind of policy where you say, we're going to count the in-person votes first?
I think it's an excuse.
And I think when they say, Joe Biden straight up says, Trump will not be declared winner, And he may be.
It sounds like they're playing dirty games.
The media establishment is on the side of the Democrats and we all know it.
So what happens if Donald Trump wins and the media just says, no he didn't?
What happens if everyone knows it?
99.9% of precincts reporting in these swing states and there's no way Joe Biden could win with any amount of votes.
Trump didn't win, they say.
What happens if votes come in and we can't verify who they came from because there's no chain of custody?
In my opinion, Mass mail-in voting is a serious risk, and I risk getting banned from YouTube for saying this, and I mean it.
Donald Trump has said there's widespread fraud.
I don't know if that's the case.
I haven't seen any evidence of widespread fraud.
Trump has also said mail-in voting will result in more voter fraud.
Many others have said that as well.
Not widespread, just more voter fraud.
We have seen voter fraud.
I think it's important that everyone goes out and votes.
I think it's important that you all make sure your vote is cast.
I think it's important that you bring it in in person and make sure your vote is counted.
I'm also concerned about reports, however, that people have been trying to register dead people as Democrats.
I'm also concerned about the idea that Trump will not be allowed to declare victory, but Biden will be.
I'm concerned about the idea that the Attorney General in Pennsylvania has already said Trump can't win.
We are being told to our faces that they're going to steal the election.
And we know for a fact they've been cheating.
And we know they've been saying Trump is the one who's been cheating, and that Trump is going to steal the election.
My point is, no one knows.
No one's going to have a definitive answer.
I don't know what to tell you, man.
I hope you've taken this seriously.
They say, from Axios, the Biden campaign is preparing for a long election night and is warning the country and the media to ignore any victory declaration from President Trump before all the ballots are counted.
Trump has told confidants that he will prematurely declare victory on election night if it looks like he's ahead, even if crucial states haven't finished counting.
Under no scenario will Donald Trump be declared a victor on election night, Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon said in a briefing Monday.
Why?
We always do it.
I remember, I think it was in the midterm, we had one precinct that was like 20% reporting and they're like, it's a victory for the Democrat!
No amount of votes could have overcome the amount she had already gotten.
But it made no sense to me.
I'm like, but with that small of a percentage?
They projected it based off of the counties that were already leaning towards a Democrat and said, we don't need final reports.
We just know.
So with the majority of votes not even in, you declared victory for Democrats?
Yep.
This time around, no.
They will not allow Donald Trump to declare victory.
They say.
The Biden campaign has focused its efforts on convincing its supporters to either vote by mail or vote early in person.
On Monday, the campaign made the case that Biden has three pathways to 270 electoral votes, with the easiest route running through Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The campaign also argued that the early numbers show that they have banked enough votes to make a Trump victory difficult to achieve on Election Day.
And that's just because they have California and New York, for the most part.
The campaign believes Trump will need 61% of the vote on Election Day to win Wisconsin, and 62% in North Carolina, O'Malley Dillon said.
Well, the good news for Donald Trump is that 69%, according to CBS News, of people who have not yet voted support Donald Trump.
In Arizona, she put the figure at 60% to overcome the votes the Biden camp thinks the former vice president has already won.
What to watch?
Biden officials are also preparing to protect voters from intimidation on election day, while bracing for legal challenges after the polls close.
How will you be intimidated?
Let me ask you.
If there was a guy at the poll And he was wearing a MAGA shirt or whatever.
And he was yelling stuff.
Are Trump supporters just supposed to be comfortable with that?
Sure, I guess.
If someone is scared of that, is that intimidation?
What if there are people from Black Lives Matter out in the polls?
Why wouldn't they be?
Antifa is planning things.
In fact, one of the smartest things Antifa could do would be to go out and disrupt polls so there can't be a result of the election.
I'm worried about what the far left is going to do to try and subvert our election.
They don't want a result.
They want the chaos to take advantage of.
They say.
Quote.
Voter intimidation is illegal and will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law, said Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel and Biden advisor.
But the campaign expects Trump's attorneys to file lawsuits and plans to meet them in court.
We're going to match them, I assure you, and exceed them in quality and vigor, and we will protect the vote, Bauer said.
The bottom line.
The Biden campaign isn't ruling out declaring victory for themselves tomorrow.
My expectation is that the vice president will address the American people probably late, O'Malley Dillon said.
Trump could win tomorrow.
It doesn't matter what they're saying.
When they say, no, all of the votes must be counted!
Let's say that, I don't know what the total population of Pennsylvania is, maybe what, 20 million?
Around there or something, I don't know.
Let's say that Donald Trump gets 18 million votes, and Joe Biden, or I'm sorry, let's say Donald Trump gets 12 million, and Joe Biden gets 6 million.
There's no way Biden's gonna be able to win.
That would be landslide territory.
What's likely to happen is that Donald Trump will get 8 million or something, and Joe Biden will get 7.5.
And they'll say, no, no, no, it's not over yet.
But at those numbers, it's extremely unlikely the people in Pennsylvania are going to vote in enough, you know, to give Joe Biden the victory.
So I don't know the total population of Pennsylvania.
The point is, it is entirely possible that Biden or Trump does win tomorrow.
It's also possible that it's going to be a very, very close race.
And then we're gonna have to wait.
But let me tell you something.
If the polls are correct, why are they telling us we'll have to wait for the full vote count?
Think about it.
If the polls are right and Joe Biden has this massive national lead, and he's leading in some of these states by double digits or even mid-single digits, shouldn't he just win?
If they truly believed Biden was going to take all of these states, then they wouldn't need to wait for any votes, would they?
I find it peculiar that they're saying, no, we have to wait a week until we know the results.
We have to wait.
But if Biden's going to win, why would we?
Perhaps that's why they're saying Joe Biden's allowed to declare victory and Trump isn't.
I don't know what they think is going to happen that's going to make the mail-in ballots all for Joe Biden, because Democrats have been telling their base not to vote by mail anymore and to vote in person.
Doesn't something seem strange to you guys?
Seems strange to me.
But I'll tell you this.
No matter what happens tomorrow, the political parties will be irrevocably changed.
The Republican Party is now the Trump Party.
The crony-never-Trumpers fled and joined the Democrats.
The Democrats now have their own civil war between the progressives and the establishment.
There are three factions right now.
The Trump Republicans, the crony Democrats, and the progressive Democrats.
I don't know which one will take over the Democratic Party, but I do know that 2024 will be absolutely insane.
I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow, who's going to win, but I'll tell you this.
If Joe Biden wins, there will be four years of chaos, and then I believe we will see in 2024 a Reagan-Nixon-style 49-state landslide.
It's a bold prediction.
And there are many, many variables before me which I can't account for.
So based off everything I have before me right now, I think if Joe Biden wins, we would see that.
Why?
Because Joe Biden is going to sell us out so fast, you will be left spinning in your office chair wondering, who dropped off that pink slip?
Your factories will move overseas to China.
The free trade agreements and the high corporate tax will drive our industries overseas, destroying the American economy, taking your job from you, resulting in more opioid addiction and more crises, more families going hungry.
And Joe Biden's gonna be like, come on, man!
He's gonna say, it's Trump's fault!
I inherited this from Trump!
The good economy, that was us!
Now we're dealing with fixing Trump's problem!
Let me just give you one little simple bit of advice.
If you have a free trade agreement where you say, we can freely ship goods from, say, China to the U.S.
and back and forth with no tariffs, no taxes, then you say, we're going to raise the corporate tax to 39.6%.
If I'm a factory in the U.S., I say, so you mean I will save 39% if I just operate in China and send my products here?
Hire the Chinese, it's cheaper.
That was always Joe Biden and Barack Obama's plan, and they're bringing it here now.
And it will be the destruction of the American working class.