New Forecast Predicts Trump Reelection VICTORY In "Republican Surge," Media FRANTIC To Explain Away
CBS says if Trump's supporters actually show up then he will win reelection on Tuesday.Democrats and joe Biden of course know this and have been frantically warning their base that victory is not guaranteed and they need to work extra hard.Trump on the other hand is confident and holding massive rallies in the tens of thousandsIt seems that the republican surge model may be correct as Democrats fear of COVID will stop them from voting on election day
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It seems like every single pollster, every single forecaster hates Donald Trump.
They say he's going to lose.
There's no way he can win.
Our modeled polling structure says Joe Biden is a comfortable lead of nine points.
And if this is all true, it means Donald Trump needs the biggest media and polling upset in U.S.
history in order to win.
But we have new information coming out from CBS News suggesting Donald Trump will win, but they won't just say it.
I wonder if that's the real problem, the bias.
You see, CBS has put out a scenario in which Donald Trump does win with 279 electoral votes, and they call it the Republican surge scenario.
And you know what their scenario requires?
That's right.
In order for Donald Trump to win, Republicans need only vote.
I kid you not.
That's what they're saying.
If Republicans actually vote, Trump will win.
Are you implying Republicans won't vote?
Of course they're going to vote.
They love the guy.
We had 57,000 people in Pennsylvania the other day.
Of course they're going to vote.
So why didn't CBS just come out and say Donald Trump is forecasted to win?
Far be it from me to question the experts in polling, but they straight up show us in their own data Trump has a massive lead over Joe Biden, 42% in terms of Who has or hasn't voted so far and who will vote on election day.
In terms of Trump to Biden, he has over 30 point, a 30 point advantage when it comes to election day.
So CBS actually comes out and says Donald Trump will lose.
Joe Biden with his performance will eke out a narrow victory.
Unless, of course, Republicans show up and vote.
We call that the Republican surge.
I don't.
You know what, man?
There are good reasons to suggest Donald Trump is not going to win.
But when you look at this story, you just have to question, what is this?
What's going on?
Now, some people are suggesting this doesn't matter.
These forecasts, they don't matter.
Even though I would say this forecast clearly shows Donald Trump is going to win.
Sure, fine.
But there are some people saying, here's some good reasons that Trump is going to lose.
And one of those is that the polls have improved.
That's right.
The polls are way better now than they were in 2016.
We had no idea what we were talking about back then.
We fixed everything except—oh, wait, what's this?
Polling got Andrew Gillum's victory in Florida very wrong.
Eight experts on how that happened.
Wait a minute.
You mean the polls were wrong in 2016 by a historical margin of 5 points?
And then when you claimed you fixed them, you got the polling in Florida wrong?
And now you expect me to believe polling is wrong- is correct?
I'm sorry.
I just don't.
Polling for Trump in Iowa is doing great.
He's now up seven points.
And apparently some people are saying Iowa is the gold standard.
That's how we judge the flyover states.
If Trump wins in Iowa, it's all over.
And they say if he wins in Florida, it's all over.
If he wins in Pennsylvania, it's all over.
Do you know what they may be missing?
They may be missing that these Democrats who have actually come out and vote, They may have voted for Trump.
I don't believe there are going to be very many Trump voters who flip, because I gotta tell you, in my personal experience, from anecdotal evidence and from what I've seen from other personalities, everybody's going the other direction.
And it really was the riots.
But let me read you the news, and I'll explain to you why I think there's actually a good chance Trump could win.
I'll show you all the reasons people think Trump will lose, and they're the experts, so you can ignore my opinion.
I'll just give you my personal thoughts.
And then I'll show you one of the best reasons, in my opinion, why you should support the president.
But we'll save that one for last.
Before we get started, head over to TimCast.com slash donate if you'd like to support my work.
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The final stretch.
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Let's read from CBS and see what they're all on about.
Biden leads.
Trump needs election day surge to win.
From CBS News, they say.
Joe Biden heads into Election Day, preferred by voters who have already cast their ballots early.
President Trump has a lead among those who plan to show up on November 3rd.
So will Biden's lead hold up?
If we trot out the old horse race analogy, Biden has a lead, but we still don't know how long the track is.
We need to see how big that Election Day vote will be.
So we took our baseline state model estimates from our initial polling, which sums to Biden holding an Electoral College lead heading into Election Day, and also estimated what it would take for each candidate to ultimately win.
We estimate from our polling that Mr. Trump is doing, on average, over 30 points better among likely Election Day voters than early voters.
We know the approximate size of the early vote so far, and we vary the potential size of the Election Day vote to explore two scenarios.
In our Republican surge scenario, the size of the Election Day vote is relatively large.
So given that these voters break for Mr. Trump, it mitigates Biden's early vote edge.
And Mr. Trump inches out close wins in enough states to get over 270.
They say, we increased the size of the election day vote by an average of 7 points in this scenario, while keeping vote preference among early voters and election day voters fixed.
But it doesn't take much for this to break big the other way.
If some of the people planning to vote on Tuesday decide not to show up, and the size of the election day vote decreases by an average of 3 points from our initial estimates, The net result is pretty dramatic.
Given Biden's overall preference leads, nearly all of the competitive states either flip to Biden or stay in his column, giving him a comfortable win.
Well, here's a map of the Republican surge scenario showing Donald Trump with 279 electoral votes.
edge with many states toss ups.
And so you can view them here.
Well, here's a map of the Republican surge scenario showing Donald Trump with 279 electoral
votes.
Well, as you know, we are looking at historical voter turnout.
At least that's what's everyone's everyone is saying.
I believe that will be the case, considering the fact that in some states, they've already surpassed their 2016 totals.
Now, again, I do think there are some good reasons to suggest Trump will lose, and I'll show them to you, but let's do this Republican surge scenario first.
If the early votes dominate, Biden will get 375 electoral votes, and it'll be a clean sweep.
However, we know that's not going to be the case.
Not only that, in early voting in some states like Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin, Republicans are actually up, and Republicans have the advantage in Florida right now relative to 2016, meaning they're still down.
Democrats still winning, but advantage means Republicans are doing better this time around than they did in 2016.
It also doesn't take into consideration some of these people who have voted and are Democrats may have flipped their vote for Trump.
We'll see.
They mentioned in the Republican surge scenario, Trump ends up with 279 votes.
Here's the best part.
So with the Biden campaign having banked so many early votes, Mr. Trump is very reliant on robust turnout among his supporters this Tuesday.
Election Day voters support the president in large numbers in the most competitive states.
The question is, will they follow through?
And of course, there's always the question of whether Democrats will match them.
Many Democrats have voted early, but many more also remain to still cast ballots.
Here's my question.
many younger voters on whom the Biden campaign depends.
And finally, with all the legal wranglings over ballots and deadlines this year, the
estimates do not account for the effects of those proceedings, if any, on the number of
ballots ultimately cast and counted.
Here's my question.
Why didn't CBS News just come out and say, if Trump supporters vote, Trump wins?
I mean, look at what they're saying.
They're saying Trump has a large number advantage.
Election Day voters support Trump in large numbers in competitive states.
The question is, will they follow through?
Why would you assume they wouldn't?
They have shown up to Trump's rallies in ridiculous numbers.
Apparently not too worried about COVID.
Joe Biden, on the other hand, not so much.
Why would you assume Trump voters wouldn't vote?
That I don't get.
Unless, of course, it's because CBS's data shows that when Republicans turn out, Trump wins.
They don't want to write a headline saying, Trump gonna win.
So they say Biden leads, Trump needs surge.
A surge.
Look at this.
The people who have not voted yet, voting on Election Day, 27% on Election Day will support Biden, and 69% will support Trump.
Trump has 42% more voters on Election Day!
If half of them showed up, Trump would get a 20-some-odd percent bump over Biden?
Come on!
Just say it, CBS!
Maybe, maybe I just don't get it.
Maybe I'm getting it wrong.
Fine.
But at the end, they're saying, will they really show up?
I certainly believe they will.
But let me show you.
Let me show you because I want to make sure I'm being reasonable.
I am no prophet.
I don't know everything.
Okay?
This is just one thing I found interesting.
I have this Twitter thread.
From Laura Bronner.
Laura Bronner is the quantitative editor for FiveThirtyEight.
She said, 4 reasons Biden has a better shot than Clinton did in 2016, and 2 reasons there's still uncertainty.
Biden's lead is bigger and more stable than Clinton's was.
Clinton's lead was smaller throughout, and more unstable.
Biden's has never been.
A less than 6.6 points.
I would like to offer up a potential agreement and criticism of what she is saying.
In the images posted by Laura Bronner, the first shows three people.
Trump, Clinton, and Gary Johnson.
The second image only shows Biden and Trump.
By adding Johnson, you change the numbers.
If you do a poll of people and say, if you had to choose between Trump or Clinton, who would you pick?
You'll get your results.
If you say, if you had to choose between Clinton, Trump, and Johnson, more people will say, okay, well, Johnson, I guess.
So we don't know how you actually compare this.
The point she's trying to make, however, is that Trump's polls were fluctuating, and there was a period where he actually was briefly above Hillary Clinton.
In the polls now, it's pretty static.
52% for Biden and 43.4% for Trump.
The reason I bring up the Gary Johnson thing is that it seems in the second poll, those numbers, that 4 point or so whatever percent, is now going between Trump and Biden.
And here's the important thing, that's bad news for Trump.
Many people are now voting for Donald Trump that didn't vote in 2016.
I'm one of them.
Johnny Rotten is one of them.
I have personal friends and family, and we've heard these stories a lot.
That may bump Trump up a couple of points.
But many other people who have not voted are voting for Biden.
Hillary Clinton was loathed.
People wanted to vote for Gary Johnson.
People hated Hillary Clinton.
Now, the real question is, will they tolerate a Joe Biden?
Personally, I can't imagine somebody wanting creepy, sleepy old Joe as president.
That's nuts.
I mean, listen, I gotta say, Trump is bad enough in terms of what I think we should have as a president.
Trump's not that bad, mind you.
Voted for him, obviously.
But seriously, Joe Biden?
Yikes, man.
So it may be that while Clinton had 45.7% to Trump's 41.8%, Biden's lead is much larger,
but both are higher. Meaning, while Trump did gain, and we did see those gains,
might not be enough to overcome the outrage vote.
She says there are fewer undecideds than 2016.
A week before the 2016 election, around 14% of respondents say they were undecided or intended to vote third party.
And the vast majority of late-decided voters voted for Trump.
This year, there are much fewer.
That's a really important point.
State polls have improved.
In 2016, it was state polls that had polling errors, in part because they hadn't needed to weigh by education before.
But polls have improved, and there are more state polls now.
Perhaps.
There are many more state polls, that's true.
Still, they got polling wrong with Andrew Gillum.
So are we supposed to assume the methodology of every single one of these institutions is corrected or even the same?
I'm not convinced.
They screwed up again in 2018.
I'm not going to blindly believe they got it right.
And I'll tell you right now, they got very little credibility as far as I'm concerned.
But she does go on.
Many have already voted.
Almost two-thirds of the total number of 2016 voters have already voted.
This reduces the probability that last-minute surprises would drastically swing the race.
Not only that, they're ignoring the Hunter Biden October surprise.
Not that anyone really cares, in my opinion.
I don't think it's swinging that many votes, to be honest.
Two reasons there's still uncertainty.
The coronavirus pandemic makes everything more complicated.
Voting behavior has changed, so it's hard to infer trends.
And a rise in cases in the next few days might make people stay home who intend to vote on Election Day.
That, in my opinion, is the most important point.
Yes, the polls may be right.
Most people might not want Trump.
But many of these Democratic voters are terrified of COVID.
I'll let you all in on a little secret.
I am currently in discussion with a very prominent and controversial figure who is very concerned about the globalists, and I would like to have him on my show.
I would also like to get a leftist on my show.
Well, the leftists I had up are literally terrified of COVID, even though they know it will be a massive show.
They know that it will be wildly entertaining and a huge opportunity.
They're saying, but coronavirus, I can't.
I'm going to put you in a room with this villain, the left's prime villain.
You can discuss things with him.
It'll be hilarious.
And the response is, but COVID.
If they won't get up for themselves, why would they get up for Joe Biden?
If people are scared of COVID to the point where they don't want to go outside and travel or do anything, why would they get up and go and vote for Joe Biden on Election Day?
Which brings me back to the main point.
When I say CBS's polls, their forecast, actually shows a Republican victory, what I mean to say is, expect a Republican surge.
And even if not enough Republicans come out, I assure you, if Republicans aren't coming out, Democrats are not coming out either.
I believe Republicans are going to be voting more so Uh, in person than Democrats for a variety of reasons, COVID being one.
But I tell you this, there's an old saying, I can run faster scared than you can mad.
The people who are voting for Donald Trump, many of them, not all of them, but many of them are voting because they are scared.
They're scared of what will happen if Joe Biden wins.
They're scared of the riots.
The people on the left are mad.
They're mad at Trump.
Well, I can run faster scared than you can mad.
And what that means is fear is a bigger motivator than anger, in my opinion.
And the Democrats have banked everything on anger.
A little bit on fear, to be fair.
They're going to get some voters.
But I think many Trump supporters, I'm not saying they're shaking in their boots.
I'm saying that they're saying things like, we need to save this country.
I am worried about what happens if Trump loses.
Yeah, there's fear.
Fear's a better motivator.
As for the Democrats, the fear of COVID is a better motivator than the anger against Trump.
In which case, I think Democrats are going to have abysmal election turnout.
I mean, what I mean to say is, I think turnout will be historical, for sure.
But I think COVID has seriously suppressed Democrats' in-person vote.
So I'm not entirely confident.
In conclusion, a 10% chance is a lot smaller than the 29% chance Trump had in 2016, but events with a 10% chance happen.
and Texas. This makes it harder to estimate turnout in advance, and the uncertainty and
complexity can also depress turnout.
In conclusion, a 10% chance is a lot smaller than the 29% chance Trump had in 2016, but
events with a 10% chance happen. You know, 1 in 10 times is less likely, but not impossible.
Basically this.
And then she shows Nate Silver.
Trump can win, but he's more than a normal-sized polling error away.
He is.
But polls are improving.
Now, I'm not sure if that matters that polls are improving because tons of people have already voted.
But it might because 27% of the people who haven't voted yet are Biden supporters.
What if their vote changes?
What if Hunter Biden swung their opinion?
What if it didn't matter anyway?
CBS says Republican surge equals Trump victory.
Republicans are going to crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump.
I voted for Trump and the Republicans.
And I never vote.
I can't believe it.
If I did, I certainly believe Republicans will.
Seriously, I'm not even an independent likely voter.
I'm a left-leaning independent non-voter.
And here I am, voting Republican.
I have close personal friends surprising me by saying that they too, independent left-leaning non-voters, they went out and voted for Trump.
Now we can see what's happening in Iowa.
Take a look at this.
Trump and Ernst take leads over Democrat challengers in Iowa poll.
Nobody's going to do for Iowa what I did for Iowa, the president told a rally crowd there last month.
Just days before the election, President Trump and U.S.
Senator Joni Ernst have polled ahead of their Democratic challengers in the assessment of Iowa voters, a new poll shows.
Trump now leads Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by seven points.
Wow.
In the previous poll in September, Trump and Biden were tied, each drawing support from 47% of voters.
Let's pretend a large portion of people voted early.
And so they voted for Biden, and now they regret it because things have changed and Biden has said things.
It won't matter.
If they were tied, and now Trump has the advantage, Trump's going to comfortably win.
At least I think so.
Some people are praising Iowa, saying, look, I mean, Iowa's the gold standard.
Andrew Neal tweeting this, he is the chairman of the Spectator and Spectator USA, saying, the Iowa poll is gold standard for statewide polling in the U.S.
Last night it put Trump on 48%, Biden on 41.
Des Moines Register said Biden fading in Iowa, reinforcing Democrat fears he's not finishing strongly.
Poll also put Senator Joni Ernst 46 to Greenfield, Democrat 42.
I think it's fair.
I think it's probably accurate.
And we have this from Josh Jordan, New Florida Polls.
Biden or Trump could win by 15 points, by 15 nationally.
And Florida was always going to be 50.1 to 49.9, no matter who wins the state.
This is significant because, first of all, ABC, Washington Post has Trump polling ahead in Florida.
But more importantly, they are all within the margin of error for the most part.
If there is a polling error, five points, that's what we saw in 2016, at least according to The Atlantic, then Trump won these states.
I'm sorry, Trump won Florida.
Trump absolutely won Iowa.
That means Trump's gonna win many of these other states as well.
And that's based on early voting now.
I don't know why the polls are all showing what they're showing, but early voting is not showing the same thing.
And CBS forecast based on early voting is not showing the same thing either.
It looks like when... I'm just gonna say it.
It looks like the polls are already wrong.
I mean, Nate Silver already mentioned that Democrat early and mail vote turnout It was extremely high, suggesting Trump supporters are going to come out in force, and that late ballots could actually lean Republican, yet they're still convinced Trump is going to lose?
I mean, at the very least, it looks like, to me, it's a toss-up.
I have no idea.
It could go either way.
But they're adamant.
Hey, hey, hey, 10% is still a great chance to win.
Maybe they're just trying to demoralize people.
I don't know.
That's what some people think.
Take a look at this from Just The News.
A barrage of election lawsuits threaten to delay final results for weeks or more.
Many states are looking to the U.S.
Supreme Court to decide whether mailed ballots can be accepted after Election Day.
I don't know what's going to happen.
You think Bush v. Gore was bad?
I was like 13 or 14 when Bush v. Gore happened.
I can't remember.
I think I was 14.
And I didn't know a whole lot about it.
It's kind of crazy though.
It was still kind of crazy.
I vaguely remember, it's been a long time, weren't they like egging Bush's motorcade when the limo was coming in?
They were just throwing fruits and vegetables and eggs at it.
Not my president.
They were outraged.
They believed that Al Gore should have won Florida and become president, but the Supreme Court intervened.
And my understanding is that they stopped The count.
Resulting in George W. Bush being the president.
Maybe.
Maybe it was right, maybe it was wrong.
But think about all of these states, where the lawsuits are already underway.
Maybe there won't even be a clean election.
Maybe what we're looking at is a dramatic transformation of whatever this country is.
And it's about to happen in two days.
I hope y'all are prepared for what's gonna happen.
But.
What I want to do now is I want to explain to you in very, very simple and easy terms why I think it is you should vote for Donald Trump.
And this is the part you should probably explain to your friends, to your family.
First, Middle Eastern peace deals.
Trump and Bolton were bad.
When Trump brought on John Bolton, it was bad.
Drone strikes were up.
And he wanted to go into Iran.
Well, Trump got rid of Bolton.
Bolton does not like Trump.
Drone strikes have gone down, and now Trump has signed four historic peace agreements.
He has negotiated peace between Kosovo and Serbia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and now Sudan and Israel.
In fact, the Sudanese-Israeli peace agreement literally ended a war.
The State Department helped negotiate a ceasefire right now over in the Middle East.
And Trump is talking about withdrawing our forces from Afghanistan and Iraq.
That is tremendous.
Maybe you don't care about foreign policy.
Well, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed a Republican for the first time since 1972.
Well, because Trump made the economy work.
He brought about jobs.
He fought for the working class people.
These are excellent reasons to support Trump, despite all of his faults.
Now, Joe Biden's got some plans that people like.
He's negotiated with progressives.
However, I think right now with people scared and the mass buying of guns, Joe Biden's plan to essentially, I mean, Joe Biden, look at his website, ban all online sales of guns and accessories.
That would end.
That would destroy jobs across this country, and thousands upon thousands of jobs.
It would destroy businesses outright overnight.
That's insane.
Seriously insane.
Like, you order stuff on Amazon for your gun.
Maybe you're not a gun owner, maybe you don't know this, but there's simple things you can order.
You can order simple accessories and items, and you can buy certain things on guns, but he wants to ban it all.
No online sales, I believe, of ammunition, guns, and accessories.
That would destroy industries across this country.
Even if you don't like guns, you can recognize why destroying businesses would be bad.
Imagine whatever business you own, Joe Biden said, we're gonna end your business, you can't sell anything anymore, you'd be bankrupt overnight.
That to me is insane.
But I give you now, the most important, the most important reason, You see, Joe Biden has pledged to do something that I find to be absolutely shocking.
You might not like Trump, but I will take a man who can literally insult someone in a nasty way over a guy who can't say English words.
Recently, Joe Biden was doing an interview or something and he said, we've created, he said that the Democrats created the largest voter fraud organization in history.
Everybody laughed.
On the right, people are like, oh, I can't believe he just came out and said it.
Freudian slip.
Losing his filter.
And the left and the media were like, what a gaffe.
How do we know it was a gaffe?
You want me to make assumptions about what he was saying?
The dude said, tru-anana-shabba.
I don't even know what he said.
Tru-anana-shabba-da.
Tru-anana-shabba-da-pressure.
Tru-anana.
I don't even know.
You see the problem with this?
Batacath care.
Were you trying to say healthcare too, dude?
But what's bad?
Baddock?
Barack?
Barack healthcare?
Obamacare?
Barack Obama?
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't.
I don't.
And I am, I will, I'll tell you this.
If Joe Biden wins, I will probably laugh so hard I will break a rib.
You know why?
Let me just tell you.
I think I've given some basic reasons why you should vote for Trump.
At least that's why I'm going to do it.
But let me just say, if this guy beats Trump, Trump can't beat the guy saying
Bada-cath caring, true Inanishaba to pressure, and Trump deserves to lose.
I gotta be honest.
Look, man, I'll tell you this.
I worry about my country.
I worry about my community, my friends, and my family.
And I worry about myself.
But I'm confident I can take care of myself.
I'm confident I will survive.
And I'm confident no matter what comes my way, I'll be alright.
I'm sure many of you are as well.
So if Biden wins, well, you just try again, I guess.
I do have fears about what he'll do and what he'll let the radical leftists do.
I fear that he won't be able to speak proper English and he's going to be sitting down with some foreign leader and say something insane.
He literally said he's running a voter fraud organization.
That wasn't gibberish.
He literally said those words.
So what if he's sitting down with someone and says, instead of saying something like, we're going to disarm our nukes, he says, we're going to arm our nukes.
That's not out of the realm of possibility for someone who says, Batacath care, and Truin on his Shabbat of pressure.
I think I've made my point.
Look, I don't know what the polls mean.
I don't know what the forecasts are.
We are in the final stretch of the race.
Ladies and gentlemen, go out and vote.
Vote for who you think is the right choice.
And, uh, I guess we'll see how things play out.
Next segment's coming up at 6 p.m.
over at youtube.com slash timcastnews.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all then.
The image I display before you is not a rock concert put on by the Rolling Stones or whatever musician the kids are into these days.
This is a rally for President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
Secret Service estimates 57,000 people.
Not in the stadium, just at the event.
So in and around the event, a total of 57,000 people.
At least, that's what I'm hearing.
Inside the stadium, I believe the capacity was 20,000, and waiting outside in overflow and just generally outside was another 15, and then apparently there was another 12 or so scattered about.
Absolutely massive.
Last night, I saw this photo, and my jaw dropped.
How could Donald Trump possibly lose Pennsylvania at this point?
And I tell you, man, This photo doesn't even do it justice.
It doesn't.
Look, if you had an actual rock band come out, like a really famous one, I don't think they'd fill this venue up.
I really don't.
So this was in Butler, PA.
But check out, there's a video here.
It's even crazier.
And for those that are listening, let me just tell you, man, it was absolutely insane.
This crowd is insane.
Now, I think it's fair to point out, Enthusiasm for Trump is off the charts.
Enthusiasm against Trump is actually really high as well, and enthusiasm for Biden is in the gutter.
Combine that with COVID, and surprise, surprise, nobody shows up for Biden rallies except for their activists, the people who are working for the campaign.
Now, the left says, well, we're keeping these events small on purpose because of COVID.
Okay, let me tell you.
If you can't get people to show up at a rally, what makes you think you can get them to show up at the polls?
I don't think you can.
Look, I've tried bringing lefties on my show and they're terrified of COVID.
I mean, it's kind of an irrational fear.
We have all the guidelines, you know, we got hand sanitizer, we got masks, we got perfect ventilation, but they're like, no, I don't know, I'm scared, I can't do it.
Okay.
So what happens?
Well, aside from Trump having this rally, I got a bunch more crazy.
I mean, my friends, Donald Trump, I believe, is going to win Pennsylvania.
I just got to show you this.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has not endorsed a Republican since 1972, and somehow they're endorsing Donald Trump.
That, to me, is absolutely crazy.
So I'll tell you, man, when it comes to who's going to show up and vote, If you don't have enthusiasm for the person they're voting for, do you think you can simply win by saying, I hate Trump?
Could the polls be wrong?
Yes.
We've heard every explanation in the book as to why Donald Trump is really gonna win, and the polls are incorrect!
I'll give you another one on top.
You see, these polls are showing people who want to vote for Biden.
But what they're not showing you is the fear they have about COVID.
That's right.
And maybe that's the excuse they'll use.
Oh, but, but, you know, Trump disregarded COVID and so his supporters went out and our supporters really did want... The media is going to crumble if Donald Trump wins.
And he might.
It's funny that right now Joe Biden's leading with an average of like nine points nationwide.
It will be the biggest failure in American history if they get this one wrong.
And they might for several reasons.
Now we've heard about the shy Trump voter.
People are scared to admit they'll vote Trump.
I know for a fact these people exist.
I don't know how big this group is.
We've heard different estimates from different polling organizations, but it exists.
I know because in my personal life there are many people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 who are voting for him now and are terrified.
People will find out.
I have no problem saying it.
I think it's funny the critics are like, you know, Tim used to say he'd never vote for conservatives and now he's voting for Donald Trump.
Yeah, and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette hasn't endorsed a Republican since 1972.
Maybe you are the ones who are crazy!
Isn't it that simple?
Not me.
I was a holdout.
But I know people who are like telling me, I'm gonna vote for Trump, I voted for Trump, I voted for all the Republicans, like no one can find out, I'll lose my job.
I know some celebrities, no joke, who have told me that they've voted for Trump, more than one mind you, and they know that if they say anything about it publicly, they will lose every endorsement, every sponsor, and they will be done.
So I gotta wonder.
I gotta wonder what's really gonna happen.
But you look at these rallies, okay?
And then we'll read this endorsement, because I'll tell you, man, this is some of the craziest stuff I've seen in a long time.
You look at these rallies, and you can see that people really are willing to crawl over broken glass for Donald Trump.
I mean, think about it.
Democrats, you should be warned.
Donald Trump supporters would brave everything you fear in COVID to vote for this man, will you?
To vote against him.
I doubt it.
They won't even go to a Biden rally to prove that they're there and they have his back.
Nope.
I don't think there's any enthusiasm.
And so when it comes to how much they hate Trump, a lot of people are going to vote against him.
And a lot of people are probably going to say, I don't care about Joe Biden.
I don't like Trump, but I'm not risking my health.
Whereas Trump supporters are like, sprinkle the broken glass on the ground, take my shoes, and I'm still going to vote for him.
That's been the big meme.
Crawling, crawling over broken glass to vote for Trump.
I went out and voted several days ago.
It's New Jersey, so it's all vote by mail.
And I thought to myself, I don't vote.
I've not voted for a Republican president ever.
But I thought to myself, If I am willing to go and vote right now, especially for a Republican, it must mean something big.
And there's probably a lot of other people who are willing to do the exact same thing, knowing, you know what?
This is it.
If everyone just stands up and says no to what the Democrats have done, it'll change.
And I'll tell you what.
First thing I'm going to do, if Donald Trump and the Republicans sweep, I'll hold their feet to the fire.
I want to see action.
I want to see improvements.
And I am not confident we're going to get it.
No, unfortunately, I think we're still going to see psychosis from the Democrats.
I think we're still going to see far-left insanity and riots, for sure, which happened in Pennsylvania.
There are many reasons why I'm saying Trump's gonna win.
There were riots in Philadelphia.
Trump's got Western PA.
I mean, it's frat country.
You saw how massive that rally was.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Trump.
And, to my surprise, they have endorsed Sean Parnell.
What?
They were criticizing him.
This is the editorial board of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette criticizing Sean Parnell, saying, we don't need another culture warrior.
We need a leader.
They were criticizing him because he put out an ad saying there were violent riots in the far left.
And now the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says, if you elect Biden, you will get the woke insanity.
Wow.
I think Donald Trump is going to clear Pennsylvania, and it is going to be easy.
I think Florida's polls are wrong.
I think Donald Trump's going to win in Florida.
I don't know if he wins everything, but I can tell you something.
The pollsters are starting to panic.
Oh yeah, man.
No joke.
No joke.
The polls have flipped in Iowa.
Now Donald Trump is up.
And we're starting to see people like Nate Silver say, when people are like, you're going to be wrong.
And we know he's like, no, I'm not.
I said Trump has a 10% chance of win.
And that means 10% of the time he'll win.
Like, yeah, you're saying it's a 90% chance for Biden, but everyone is saying Trump is going to win.
To be fair, don't get all bent out of shape, Nate.
I don't know who's going to win.
I think Trump's going to win Florida and Pennsylvania, but we will see.
There's going to be a lot of dirty games.
Dirty, dirty games.
Lawsuits flying left and right.
And our institutions seem to be breaking down.
But let's keep this to Philly.
First, I want to show you this.
Philly's already on edge.
Election day could spark total chaos.
The city has seen 200 arrests since Monday, and nearly 60 officers injured, with one still hospitalized from the Daily Beast.
Things are getting spicy up in Philadelphia.
They're getting very, very spicy.
And I can only imagine Eastern PA, which is very much Republican, but Philadelphia being very Democrat, seems like people in Philadelphia Gonna be voting for Donald Trump.
Can you trust a Democrat to protect your community?
The answer is no, and I can give you a very simple bit of evidence.
Antifa and far leftists tried to tear down a statue of Christopher Columbus in Philadelphia, in South Philly.
And a bunch of local residents, regular guys, showed up and defended it.
Started some fights, pushing people back, saying, leave our statue alone.
Congratulations, gentlemen, you stood your ground and you were victorious!
Until the Democrats in Philly ordered the statue removed anyway.
Doing the bidding of the far left.
These people need to be removed.
Vote them out.
Some people are thinking we're going to see a major flippening.
Miami-Dade right now.
Democrats are starting to panic in Florida.
Miami-Dade County, the Democrat stronghold.
And there is a Republican advantage among Latino and Venezuelan and Cuban voters.
Gee, I wonder why.
Imagine you live in Venezuela and you flee Venezuela to America.
And then you're like, I guess I'm voting for Trump.
I think, when you look at these countries, and you look at the things promised by a lot of these socialists, and you look at what the socialists here in the U.S.
are doing, there's similarities.
Absolute.
Absolutely.
And so, I think anybody who has experience with this, who has studied history, is going to know, don't vote for these people.
Now, they seem to be making gains anyway, and it's potentially only a matter of time.
Unless, of course, we get some hard pushback.
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has endorsed Donald Trump.
This is amazing.
They say basically the same things I often do.
He's unpresidential.
He's crude and unkind.
He's just not a good man.
These things, and much worse, are commonly said of President Donald Trump.
His personality totally eclipses his record.
Yes, Trump, calm down.
Admittedly, I say this, you know, fairly often, Trump's been doing way better.
He was at an event last month or a few weeks ago where he's like, I'm not going to call him a name because, you know, everyone's going to get mad and everyone chuckled and laughed.
And they get it.
Good.
Trump is doing better.
Here's what they say.
So we, seemingly, have him on the dunk tank, ready for a cold bath.
Let's play dump the lout.
But is this really what it's about?
Is it the real question whether he has been taking the country and the economy of this region in the right direction these last four years?
Can we separate the man from the record?
We share the embarrassment of millions of Americans who are disturbed by the president's unpresidential manners and character.
His rudeness and put-downs and bragging and bending of the truth.
Thank you.
Yes.
Yes.
And all of that.
None of this can be justified.
The president's behavior often has diminished his presidency and the presidency.
Most Americans want a president who makes them proud.
We, too, prefer the first-class temperament and demeanor of a Winston Churchill, a Dwight Eisenhower, a Franklin Roosevelt, a Ronald Reagan, or Barack Obama.
I do want to point out Winston Churchill was not American, but, you know, sure.
I'm also pretty sure Winston Churchill was crude and crass and boorish.
Whatever.
They say none of them are on the ballot this year, and they say that they enthusiastically supported Obama twice.
The important factor is they've not endorsed a Republican since 1972.
I think they get to that.
Look at Trump's record.
Under the Trump economy, pre-COVID boomed like no time since the 50s.
Look at your 401ks over the past three years.
Unemployment for black Americans is lower than it's ever been under any president of either party.
Under Trump, our trade relationships have vastly improved, and our trade deals have been rewritten.
Thanks to him, Middle America is on the map again, and the Appalachian and hourly worker has some hope.
Has Mr. Trump done enough for these struggling fellow citizens?
No.
But he recognized them.
Maybe he was not articulate, but he recognized their pain.
No one ever asked the American people or the people in flyover country if they wanted to send their jobs abroad until Mr. Trump.
He has moved the debate in both parties from free trade, totally unfettered, to managed or fair trade.
He has put America first, just as he said he would.
He also kept his promise to appoint originalists to the Supreme Court of the U.S.
His third appointment, Amy Coney Barrett, is the best of all.
A jurist whose mind and character and scholarship are first class.
We hope she stands against both judicial and executive excess.
Finally, let's talk about one of the most important concerns in this region, energy.
Under Mr. Trump, the United States achieved energy independence for the first time in the lifetimes of most of us.
Where would Western Pennsylvania be without the Shell Petrochemical Complex, the cracker plant?
Donald Trump is not Churchill, to be sure, but he gets things done.
He is not a unifier.
He often acts like the president of his base, not the whole country.
He has done nothing to lessen our divisions and has, in fact, often deepened them.
The conviction and intellect of all Americans should be respected by all Americans, especially the president.
Has Mr. Trump handled the pandemic perfectly?
No.
But no one masters a pandemic.
And the president was and is right that we must not cower before the diseased, and we have to keep America open and working.
He has not listened well to the people who could have helped with this.
He has not learned government or shown interest in doing so.
But the Biden-Harris ticket offers us higher taxes and a nanny state that will bow to the bullies and the woke who would tear down history rather than learning from history and building up the country.
It offers an end to fracking and other cuckoo California dreams that will cost the economy and the people who need work right now.
Good paying green jobs are probably not jobs for Pittsburgh or Cleveland or Toledo or Youngstown.
It offers softness on China, which Mr. Trump understands is our enemy.
Mr. Biden is too old for the job and fragile.
There's a very real chance he will not make it through the term.
Mr. Trump is also too old, but seemingly robust.
I'm gonna stop right there and say, Donald Trump is spry.
How many rallies is he doing per day?
Five rallies per day!
I can't handle that many flights.
I'm gonna tell you, man.
I used to fly around the world, two flights per week, and it was brutal!
I enjoyed myself flying to these random places all the time, different countries, different protests, different cities, different meetings.
I was on just under two flights per week.
Flying twice in one day.
I hated connecting flights.
I can't.
Oh, it's brutal.
You want to know why you get so tired when you're on a plane?
You fly on a plane, you go to sleep, you wake up, and you're still just so tired you go to bed right away.
It's because, as my understanding, You're constantly adjusting various muscles because the plane shakes and vibrates, and so your body is trying to stay balanced and stay alert, and it's dehydrating, it's taxing, and Trump is going to five different cities.
How many flights is that?
Seven per day to the first, in between, and then out?
That's insane.
Man's got energy, to say the least.
They say in Mike Pence, Mr. Trump has a vice president ready to take over, if need be.
He is a safe pair of hands.
Kamala Harris gives no evidence of being ready to be president.
This newspaper has not supported a Republican for president since 1972.
But we believe Mr. Trump, for all his faults, is the better choice this year.
We respect and understand those who feel otherwise.
We wish that we could be more enthusiastic, and we hope the president can become more dignified and statesman-like.
Each American must make up his or her own mind, and do what he or she thinks is best for the community and the republic.
Vote your conscience, and whatever happens, believe in the country.
I want to stress, as I did the last time I read, I read the Boston Herald's endorsement of Trump.
I do not believe newspapers should be endorsing anybody, period.
I do not believe the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette should endorse Donald Trump.
I do not believe the Washington Post should endorse Joe Biden.
I don't like the idea.
I don't care for newspapers telling me who I should vote for.
I believe that newspapers should tell us what is going on and let us decide.
However, for the Post and the Gazette, both endorsing their respective candidates, at least we know where they stand.
Interestingly, however, When Sean Parnell, back in July, put out an ad challenging the far left, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette criticized him.
We can do better.
We need reason and common ground.
I thought they didn't like the guy.
Apparently, Sean Parnell thought they didn't like him either.
For those who aren't familiar, Sean Parnell is running against Conor Lamb in the 17th District, and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, just a few days ago, endorsed Sean Parnell.
Good.
I gotta be honest.
I also think Sean Parnell is the right choice for Pittsburgh.
I don't live in Pittsburgh, so far be it for me to tell you how to live your lives.
Full disclosure, I donated to Sean a while back because I saw his ad where he walked to the warehouse and he explained what he wanted to do and why he wanted to do it and I thought to myself, I don't agree with all of his policy positions, but He's running against plastic people.
Do you see that Lady Gaga ad?
No, for real, do you see, like, where she's leaning on a pickup truck wearing camo?
And it is the most ridiculously plastic thing I've ever seen.
Not only does no one buy the camo-wearing pickup truck bit, she was clearly, like, running off a script.
Hi, I'm Lady Gaga.
I'm voting for America.
That means Joe Biden.
If you live in one of, insert key swing state, you should vote and bring your friends.
And then she has a beer and she sips it, crushes it, wasting the whole thing and throwing it.
And then she's like, I'm gonna be in one of these states.
Guess which one?
I used to live there.
And I'm just like, she wasn't even trying to act.
I know Lady Gaga can act.
She could have actually tried to convince people.
Instead, that's what we're offered from these plastic people?
Conor Lamb is plastic as they come.
And the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette says, mind you, Conor Lamb is one of the moderate Democrats who said, I'm not going to vote for Pelosi and we're going to focus on issues.
And then what happens?
Impeach Trump!
They could have cast the ring into the fires of Mount Doom, but they did not want to because the Orange Man bad narrative is just too good.
They couldn't let it go.
They needed to hold on to it.
They say, if you really want Mr. Trump to win, you want him to have some help.
If you deeply want Mr. Biden to win, you want to keep a Democratic House and Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.
But what if you're an independent voter who wants a congressman who is at least somewhat independent and will vote the district, putting its needs, character, and people ahead of party or ideology?
There are a lot of those independent and independent-leaning voters in the 17th, which is why liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats have long been popular in these parts.
Western Pennsylvanians, like moderates and centrists, are people who are willing to break party ranks to compromise and get things done.
While there isn't much room for compromise in the U.S.
House these days, moderate Republicans have been going over the wall, and conservative or moderate Democrats are few and far between.
But there are a few.
The question is, is Conor Lamb one of them?
Is Conor Lamb moderate?
That's clearly what the district wants, because that's how Mr. Lamb presented himself in 2016, and has again in 2020.
He famously promised not to vote for Pelosi as Speaker.
He didn't.
But neither did he vote against her.
That is Mr. Lamb in a nutshell.
He's smart.
He's clever.
He's a smooth politician.
But is he authentic?
This race is also about authenticity and a fit for the district.
Did voters in the 17th who voted for a moderate and independent Democrat and Mr. Trump expect Mr. Lamb to vote for impeachment?
They might have expected Mr. Lamb to at least be a bit troubled by the failure of his party to accept the results of the 2016 election and the determination of some to find any reason to impeach the president, even if he also thought the president finally gave them one.
On the impeachment issue, and virtually every other issue, Mr. Lamb has been in lockstep with the Speaker and his party caucus.
He has shown almost no independence, distance, or skepticism, labeling himself a moderate with smart marketing, but not much more than that.
Would Parnell be more of a maverick?
Would he buck his caucus for the sake of his district, at least from time to time?
It's not clear.
He'd be a freshman, just as Mr. Lamb is a backbencher now.
To be fair, Mr. Lamb, even a star, can't get much done in the first two years on the Hill.
And Mr. Parnell would likely also be in the minority.
But we know this about Sean Parnell.
He's a warrior.
He is fearless.
A genuine war hero who had to win battles when he was greatly outnumbered.
When you have had to fight as an infantryman for your life and the lives of your men, you're probably not going to quake at a House committee chair or a whip.
And he has no interest in being a career politician.
I actually hate politics, he says.
Sean Parnell, who is as open and direct as Mr. Lamb is contained, hates politics, loves the country, and is coming to love the 17th district.
The district should vote for independent representation and give him the chance to serve.
Bravo, good sirs.
I gotta say, with the riots, with the chaos, I think Trump's taking home Pennsylvania.
Let me wrap it up one more time with this image.
This was posted by Jack Posobiec.
The image of Donald Trump in Butler, PA.
This was shocking to me.
I've seen Trump rallies.
I have been to many Trump rallies.
They have been the thousands.
They have been big.
But this is the kind of rally Trump wanted.
Look at this.
How did they plan?
How did they know?
This is crazy.
Absolutely crazy.
Inside the arena, many people said, that's not 57,000, that's 20,000.
You are correct.
This area was able to hold 20,000 people.
Just outside was about 15.
That's my understanding.
With a total estimate for the entire event of people in the peripheral area was 57,000.
Look at this sea of people coming up for Donald Trump.
How does he lose?
How are the polls saying he's gonna... I... Beats me.
Maybe he does.
Maybe.
We'll see.
Next segment's coming up at 1 p.m.
on this channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all then.
Physical political violence has already begun.
And I mean, it's fair to say it's been going on for quite some time.
But as we're getting into the actual election, the actual election day, we're starting to see more violence erupt around it.
The other day in Beverly Hills, Antifa attacked a Trump supporter, and it was pretty brutal.
They were like stomping on this guy who wasn't even fighting them.
They show up in armor with helmets, with goggles, with glasses.
And the Trump supporters, for the most part, show up wearing regular clothes.
Now, this man, I believe, was wearing some kind of armor.
And we're starting to see more and more Trump supporters show up wearing armor.
But I want to say a few things as we get into the meat and potatoes here.
As most of you know, I'm not a conservative.
I don't know what left and right means anymore, but if, as many people try to say, I am right, right-wing, that would mean that traditional liberals and conservatives, together now, are both right-wing.
I don't know what that makes the left.
But traditional liberals right now don't align with the left, and that's a fact.
Ask them.
They say no, they don't like liberals, they're progressives.
Right now.
Whatever this liberal thing is or was is gone.
There are very few people who are actually liberals anymore.
It's progressives, and it's conservatives.
Liberals have more in common with conservatives.
Riots erupted across the country.
They're still going on.
We have clashes across the country.
We have, in Philadelphia, total chaos.
We have, in Portland, of course, total chaos.
And apparently we've even seen some clashes with police in places like North Carolina.
I've been saying for quite some time, What, you know, what is gonna happen?
We are going to see some kind of civil war.
And a lot of people on the left laughed and gloated.
Why?
One simple reason.
I was right, and that was it.
And they didn't know, and they don't understand.
Let me tell you something.
I think one key thing that defines left and right, at least in this current culture war, is low-information politicos versus high-information politicos.
Now, I consider myself to be decently high-information, not like I know everything, just that I read the news all day, every day.
It doesn't mean my ideas are good.
It doesn't mean I'm the smartest person in the world.
It just means I read a lot.
A good example of what I'm trying to say is when I had a leftist on my IRL podcast and they were saying some of the reasons they don't like Donald Trump was his actions pertaining to Russiagate.
And I said, do you know what Obamagate is?
And they didn't.
They didn't know anything about the meeting James Comey had.
They didn't know anything about the unmasking.
They didn't know anything about Michael Flynn trying to get him fired.
The lies, the deception, the manipulation, the text messages.
They didn't know that FBI agents were texting each other saying, we have an insurance policy.
We'll stop Donald Trump.
Yeah, once you learn those things, you're like, oh, wait a minute.
Maybe Trump is right.
So when you have leftists who don't know, how can they make accurate assessments as to what we should or should not be doing?
So when I say something like Civil War, immediately low information people imagine like two factions marching towards each other going, you know, hold the line and fire or whatever as if it's like 1860.
No, I'm talking about just clashes between ideologues, and I've said over and over again, sometimes civil wars are just a coup.
Sometimes it's two small groups just in the capital fighting, and then one runs in and takes over and that's it.
As Matt Taibbi put it back in October, a renowned journalist, back then he said we're in the counting heads phase, when the factions are counting who's on whose side, and that what happens is eventually you get to the point Where two cars go speeding towards, you know, a police station.
Both, you know, drivers jump out, run up to the sheriff or whatever, or the chief, and say, arrest that man!
At each other.
And that could be the Civil War.
That could be the coup.
That could be the revolution.
Depending on your perspective.
I think what we're seeing with all these riots and all this violence is some kind of civil war.
I do.
And the problem is low-information individuals, mostly on the left, can't fathom what a civil war is because they haven't read anything about it.
Case in point, when Bill Maher brought it up on his show.
Now I want to stress, there are a lot of people on the left and the right who have talked about this.
There are security experts, mainstream media organizations.
There is a ridiculous amount of high-level intellectuals and politicos who have been talking about this long before I have.
In fact, it's a Biden supporter who first proposed we were in a cold civil war.
And then I reported on it.
Looking at other articles from security agencies and what they thought was the likelihood of a civil war, a lot of people did.
This violence we're seeing is just pieces of it.
And you're not going to see people marching through the streets.
But the example I was going to give you is Bill Maher on his show.
said, there can't be a civil war because there's no dividing line anymore.
And I just couldn't help but laugh.
And it was kind of a frustrated laugh.
Bill, how dumb do you have to be?
Have you ever read about any civil war at any time anywhere?
Apparently he didn't.
Apparently the only thing Bill Maher knows about Civil War is what he read off the back of a Cracker Jack box for a history lesson or whatever, giving us little tidbits about the south of the Mason-Dixon line or something.
He's reading little blurbs from magazines that say, remember the Civil War?
The Mason-Dixon line would have to go through people's homes.
Okay, dude.
Let me explain something to y'all.
Civil war in most countries is not states against states.
You see, in the U.S., we have a union of sovereign states, and sovereign states banded together and went against others.
And it's fairly complicated.
In fact, one of them broke in half.
That's right, Virginia and West Virginia used to be one state.
And then West Virginia broke off after disagreeing with Virginia about slavery and states' rights issues, and typically the Civil War.
What was leading up to it?
A civil war in this country may look like insurgency, as I've always said.
I said it may be like the Troubles in Ireland, or Northern Ireland.
I have said over and over again for the past couple of years, if we do see some kind of civil war, it will probably be like insurgency.
Pockets rising up and shooting.
And that's what we see in many of these countries in the Middle East.
It's what we saw a bit in the Spanish Civil War.
You should look into the history of the Spanish Civil War because it's probably the best example of what might happen.
But these people can't seem to understand or fathom what a real civil war would be like because the only thing they know is the tidbits they've read about the American Civil War.
So while we're seeing this, I want to point out a couple things.
First, as you may have, you probably realized already, Sean Parnell in Pittsburgh says, my house was vandalized last night by cowards under the cover of darkness.
This is what is at stake in this election.
We all must fight for our country and we must do it now.
I will not cower.
I will not back down.
I will always fight for this nation.
You can see on his garage.
Elections, no.
Revolutions, yes.
And a sickle and a hammer.
Now, I'm usually skeptical of these kinds of things, right?
Somebody spray-painting some ridiculous message on someone's property.
Revolution, yes!
Elections, no!
But I have no reason to doubt Sean Parnell, and I don't think he's the kind of guy to go into his own house and spray-paint it.
No, I think there's dumb people doing dumb things, and a dumb person did a dumb thing.
But you can see they know where he lives.
They're targeting him.
I've had people send things to me about Far Left, their plans, and I believe there's going to be very serious violence, which is why I am not currently at my main place of living.
Because of the escalation of violence and riots in the Philadelphia area, it's one of the reasons why I relocated for the time being.
Ultimately, we're going to do a full and complete move.
I still do live in the Philadelphia area.
I was recently just there only a few days ago.
But, because of escalating tensions, because there's National Guard deployments, because there's escalating riots, I decided for Election Day I'm going to be out in the middle of nowhere.
And it's still not enough, because I've had some... I'll just call it some alerts.
Some potential warnings, as it were.
I don't know how serious I have to be in terms of what's going to happen on Election Day, but I take it very, very seriously.
Anyway, let me get to the point.
So, look.
We know Portland is rioting.
We know that Philadelphia is rioting.
But Vice runs this article.
And it made me laugh.
And I decided, you know what?
I should talk about it.
You know why?
They're saying everything I said two years ago.
Back when leftists were laughing, saying, Tim's so dumb, he thinks there's gonna be a civil war, what an idiot.
And now Vice is like, everything that Tim Pool said, just repeat it.
Isn't that funny?
How late to the party did they have to be?
I was reading statements from experts.
From security officials.
And I was judging things based off my experience in actual civil unrest.
You know I've been covering civil unrest for over a decade.
Occupy Wall Street.
I was in Spain.
I was in Ukraine.
I was in Venezuela.
I've been in Brazil.
I was in Egypt during their revolution.
I have witnessed these things.
I have talked to people.
And based on what people in this country were saying, I said, here's what I think might happen.
Why?
I have seen it before.
I have.
Well, here's vice.
Is the U.S.
already in a new civil war?
Experts say that a new civil conflict will look nothing like the last American civil war.
That the country is on the verge of large-scale political violence.
Yup.
I hope you have taken necessary precautions.
We're hearing, even CNN is saying this, that a large portion, maybe the biggest, of new gun buyers in this massive surge, suburban white women.
I wonder why they're buying guns.
Vice reports.
America's COVID-19 numbers aren't under control.
In many places, they're getting worse.
Large portions of the West Coast are on fire.
Social media is fueling genocides.
And political violence in the U.S.
is increasing.
People are marching in the streets, aligned with two ideologically distinct factions.
Many of them, overwhelmingly from one side, are armed.
And violence and death has resulted when these two sides have clashed.
There are many people who are armed in this country.
Of the factions that are armed, you would be foolish to think it is only one side.
And let this be a warning to the conservatives who think they're the only ones who have guns.
In case many of you haven't been paying attention, Antifa and the active revolutionary leftists have always been pro-2A.
They are not liberals, they do not like liberals, and liberals aren't the ones who are going around smashing things.
Why, in fact, many liberals, probably on the side of Donald Trump.
I know, uh, I am.
No, the leftists that I see on social media, the ones that produce videos, the most prominent on YouTube, are very, very pro-gun.
And they have them.
Now, I think it's fair to say that they're less likely to be former military and well-trained with them, but this guy just does not understand what he's talking about.
The signs of a coming conflict are everywhere.
Political polarization is up.
Gun and ammunition sales have spiked.
Killers, such as Kyle Rittenhouse, are being lauded by their political allies.
And protests are widespread in American cities.
Police kill unarmed people in the streets.
The government is polarized and corrupt.
And our institutions are failing.
Armed militias patrol U.S.
streets and groups like the Atomwaffen Division and the base plot to start a larger conflict.
Mass shootings, sometimes ideologically motivated, other times not, occur frequently.
Poverty and unemployment are widespread as mass evictions loom and Congress stalls to help those in need.
Sure.
Leftist perspective on this one.
But let me point out the Kyle Rittenhouse thing.
Kyle Rittenhouse was running away.
We've seen the video.
He was running away.
This is the high information voter versus the low information voter issue.
This person from Vice is extremely low information.
So it's kind of like a matter of how deep do they go on any of these issues.
Apparently the person writing this has only seen a Facebook post by Occupy Democrats and not actually read the New York Times, for instance.
The New York Times concluding, of course, that Kyle Reynolds was being chased, someone else fired first, and then he fired back.
Whereas Michael Reinohl, who isn't mentioned in this, is being lauded by leftists, cheered for, they held a vigil for him, and he stalked and executed a Trump supporter.
A Trump supporter who was walking down the street when Reinohl is seen on camera stalking him and then yells, someone yells, we got another one right here, take it out, right here, yeah, pop, pop, killed.
You see the difference?
The people at Vice are low information or They're secretly supporting the extremists and trying to frame the right.
But I think this is an issue of them being low information.
They just don't do any work, nor do they have the cognitive ability to understand what's really happening.
Case in point, them saying, only one side is overwhelmingly armed.
Far leftists are armed, trust me.
In Philadelphia last night, protesters surrounded a police precinct after an officer shot and killed 27-year-old Walter Wallace Jr.
Wallace had a history of mental illness and had a knife when officers approached.
Really.
It was officers who approached.
Did you watch the video?
Pathetic.
When you watch the video, you can clearly see the officers are actually backing away when Wallace approached them.
Quickly.
Aggressively.
With a knife.
They say that he was shot.
This is all happening in election year, and we have a sect of the president's supporters who have vowed to show up at polling places armed.
If you have a terrible and ominous feeling about all of this, you're not alone.
Some on the far right are talking about another civil war.
Some experts who have studied sectarian violence in the U.S.
and other countries think we are already in one.
Incipient insurgency.
According to several experts I spoke with, a new civil conflict will look nothing like the first American Civil War.
It's not likely that clear sides will be drawn up with massive armies of Americans marching toward each other, or as drones strike from above.
An insurgency is more likely a period of sustained and distributed conflict where non-state actors carry out violence to achieve a political goal.
Several said they believe we're already in the early stages of one, a period before large-scale political violence the CIA defines as incipient insurgency.
A conflict in the pre-insurgency stage is difficult to detect because most activities are underground and the insurgency has yet to make its presence felt through the use of violence.
The CIA Guide to the Analysis of Insurgency says in its definitions of the incipient insurgency phase, quote, Moreover, actions conducted in the open can easily be dismissed as nonviolent political activity.
During this stage, an insurgent movement is beginning to organize, leadership is emerging, and the insurgents are establishing a grievance and group identity, beginning to recruit and train members, and stockpiling arms and supplies.
I believe all of this is happening.
There are plenty of examples from around the world for what this might look like.
And many civil wars today do not have soldiers marching on the battlefield.
The early stage of the Syrian civil war was fought by paramilitary groups in neighborhoods.
For 30 years in Ireland, insurgent groups policed the streets, disappeared people from their homes, assassinated political enemies, and bombed buildings.
The Colombian conflict was an asymmetrical war that lasted almost 60 years and involved various guerrilla groups, Most famously, the FARC, fighting each other and the government.
During the years of lead in Italy, right-wing terrorists colluded with the police and assassinated leftist political leaders.
These and other conflicts are overwhelmingly what civil war looks like now.
Thank you, Vice.
Sorry, Bill Maher.
Read a book.
Armed groups with various objectives vying for territory and cultural and political influence, often violently, According to several experts, if America goes to war with itself, it won't look like it did in 1860.
It'll look more like Belfast in 1972, or Aleppo in 2011.
But even these analogies fall short.
It's hard to find direct historical analogs for what's happening in the U.S.
right now.
This kind of political violence and civil strife isn't new, but there's a lot of factors that make America unique.
The United States is a large country spread out across millions of square miles.
Social media is fueling the conflict, and our populace is heavily armed.
People, it is fair to say, are scared.
The strongest indicator that it's about to get extremely bad is not hate.
There's always hate.
It's fear.
David Kilcolan, a member of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies nonprofit, told me during
a Zoom call, Kilcolan is a counterinsurgency strategist who serves on the FDD's Board of
Advisors for its Center on Military and Political Power. He was also the chief strategist in the
Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism at the U.S.
State Department from 05 to 06.
Because he studied insurgencies, Kilcolan knows what the early stages of civil conflict look like,
And he's not excited about America's future.
Quote, The worst atrocities come from fear, not hate.
Because people think they're good, he said, and they can justify incredible atrocious violence to themselves on the basis that it's defensive.
You need a belief that some other group is encroaching on your territory.
And then you need to have lost confidence in the ability of the state to act as an impartial and neutral protector.
We are already losing that confidence because of COVID.
KillKillin isn't the only person who thinks America is close to something incredibly dangerous.
Quote.
We are in a state of civil war.
Whenever, in more than one geographical location in the U.S., it becomes commonplace for multiple non-state armed groups to fight each other with deadly force.
When that is an occurrence that is common in more than one location in the country, that's a civil war.
Robert Evans told me over the phone.
Evans is a conflict journalist who's reported from Ukraine, Syria, and Iraq.
His work has appeared in Bellingcat, where he reports on modern American extremist movements.
He's also a podcaster, and his 2019 podcast, It Could Happen Here, described the possibility of a new American Civil War.
And let me just give some advice to those leftists who laugh and say, Civil War is so dumb.
Perhaps vice wasn't good enough for you.
Perhaps these experts weren't, and perhaps you'd like to mock me.
I am a conflict journalist who's covered Egypt, Ukraine, Venezuela, Brazil.
I was at major civil uprisings like Occupy Wall Street and Spain.
And I have seen these things happen before.
I have seen what led to the revolution in Egypt.
I was in Thailand.
I stood in a vehicle splattered with blood where a rival group on a motorcycle threw a grenade into it because they were bullhorning for what they supported.
Monarchy.
Thailand's conflict was interesting.
Monarchists versus parliamentarians.
And the monarchists were riding in a big truck waving flags and singing songs and a motorcycle pulled up and they threw a grenade into it and no one could get the grenade in time and it exploded and blood stained that vehicle and I stood in it.
We filmed it for Vice.
I've covered these things.
I've seen what the sentiment looks like that leads to them.
And right now, what I see in this country, and I've seen over the past several years, were the same indicators.
For that, I was told that I was crazy and wrong!
Now many people understood that I was citing actual experts on this one, but let me cite myself for once.
I've seen it before, and I'm worried we'll see it again.
Vice right now is just saying exactly what I said two years ago.
Insurgency.
Conflict.
Popping up throughout the country.
We don't know exactly what it will look like, but it wasn't me who decided one day to arbitrarily say it was a civil war.
There was a Princeton professor, a Democrat, who said, we are in a cold civil war.
Now the danger is, will it go hot?
There's a leaked video of leftists talking about getting guns occupying buildings, and it's freaky stuff.
I have received some private communications that give me worry.
Nothing I can really report on, just things that make me worry based on what I'm hearing through various sources and things like that.
I don't know what's going to happen.
I know they're planning mass widespread unrest, not necessarily violent armed insurrection, but they call it unrest, across the country in the event Donald Trump wins.
We are now seeing all of the polls say Joe Biden will win.
But we're seeing acts of assumed or presumed or overt voter suppression.
Let me show you.
North Carolina.
Marching to the polls.
People were arrested and pepper sprayed by police.
What do you think happens when North Carolina goes Trump?
Do you think these people are going to say we lost fair and square?
Or do you think they're going to say the police are colluding with the fascists to suppress the vote of those who would challenge the fascists?
I think I know what they're going to say.
And I think people on the right will say something similar if Joe Biden wins.
Mail-in voting was broken.
They've corrupted our elections.
Our institutions are in decay.
Here's another quote.
To most people, the idea of a second American Civil War feels more like science fiction than a possible future, Evans said on It Could Happen Here.
It feels silly when I stand in line at the DMV or hop onto a public bus or train.
The systems that govern our lives here are so seemingly intricate, so stable and so settled, that any kind of mass upset feels impossible.
Fantastic, even.
But I have walked through the cities where the buses still run, just without windows because the blasts from mortars have blown them out.
I've watched people stand in line and fill out forms in government buildings while howitzers shake the foundations and machine guns chatter half a mile away.
I have seen systems collapse.
Everything I've seen and everything I've read over the past two years has convinced me that the United States is closer to that kind of terror than anyone is willing to admit.
Good sir, you are correct.
Because I have seen the same thing.
I have seen people go to McDonald's, where only a few blocks away, military helicopters and APCs circle, and people demand revolution, while the man sits in a McDonald's eating a cheeseburger and drinking a Coke and watching a football match.
I have watched thousands of people call for revolution.
I have seen the people riding on the tanks through the streets as we hopped in a car and drove to a local mall to purchase standard fare.
People don't realize life doesn't just stop.
It's not one day you're sitting in your home and all of a sudden everything's crazy and you're running through the streets.
No, life goes on even though the explosions can be heard off in the distance.
You know what movie I really like?
The Patriot, with Mel Gibson.
I watched it a couple months ago, I'm watching it again now, and it is just so good.
But there's a scene that you need to watch in the beginning of the movie.
It's The Patriot with Mel Gibson from 2000.
Heath Ledger and Mel Gibson, and Jason Isaacs.
Really great.
Mel Gibson's character doesn't want war with Britain.
It's the revolution.
And he says, mark my words, this war will be fought, you know, in our homes.
Our children will learn of it with their own eyes.
There's a scene where he's at his house, and he's tending to his children, when you hear bangs and explosions.
He goes out on the porch, and the kids are all listening to the cannon fire, the musket fire, and then one kid comes out with muskets, and he says, put them away, put them back.
He's like, don't worry, they're miles off.
The next day, he comes outside, and he sees them marching through his fields.
People don't understand, life doesn't just stop.
No, you'll be driving your car down the highway, you'll be on your way to the grocery store, and then all of a sudden there will be a roadside mortar explosion of some sort.
It will just be random insurgency.
I don't know when or how it escalates, and it might not even look like that because it's been a few years and technology and tactics change.
But I think we're on the cusp of something extremely dangerous.
Vice certainly seems to think so, and even they're writing about it.
It's about time people started to take notice.
But I'll tell you what.
If you're someone who's taken me seriously, and were listening to what I was saying years ago, then you're probably in a better position than most.
But let me just stress, I don't know what's going to happen.
This could all blow over.
We've had periods of unrest and tumult before.
After Election Day, Trump could win, the Democrats finally say, okay, okay, we'll chill, and Antifa goes, well, better luck next time, and everything just calms down.
Somehow, I don't think that's likely, but I'm not a prophet.
I'm just a dude who has seen things and read things, experienced things, and is saying, here's what I see and here's what I think.
And I'm wrong a lot.
Maybe I'll be wrong this time.
I certainly hope so.
I'll leave it there.
Next segment's coming up at 4 p.m.
over at youtube.com slash timcast.
That is a different channel from this one.
It's my main channel.
Thanks for hanging out, and I will see you all then.
Cue the fake news media freakout.
Donald Trump will declare victory before he's actually won.
What do we do?
Well, I've been told by many social media companies that if I announce someone has won before the official results are in, they will flag or remove the post.
Who determines who won is the big question.
If Donald Trump clearly has a major lead in several states that cannot be cleared by Joe Biden under any circumstances, then can't he declare victory?
What gives them the right to say they're the authority on who won or didn't win, when typically it's just media outlets saying, based on how many precincts are reporting and how many votes are left, we're projecting so-and-so won?
Donald Trump, then, will not be allowed to even say he won, even if he did.
And that kind of sounds like y'all are playing some dirty games, like maybe you'll find some votes somehow.
Yeah, I wonder.
Well, here's The Scoop from Axios.
They say...
President Trump has told confidants he'll declare victory on Tuesday night if it looks like he's ahead, according to three sources familiar with his private comments.
That's even if the Electoral College outcome still hinges on large numbers of uncounted votes in key states like Pennsylvania.
Behind the scenes, Trump has privately talked through this scenario in some detail in the last few weeks, describing plans to walk up to a podium on election night and declare he's won.
I'd love to point out that, uh, who are your sources?
Who's familiar with Trump's private comments?
I just don't trust your anonymous sources anymore.
Sorry, Axios.
They say, for this to happen, his allies expect he would need to either win or have commanding leads in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, Iowa, Arizona, and Georgia.
I love how they're like, for Trump to actually be able to come out and say he won, he must have won!
Yes.
Quite literally the point.
Anyway.
Why it matters.
Trump's team is preparing to falsely claim that mail-in ballots counted after November 3rd—a legitimate count expected to favor Democrats—wrong are evidence of election fraud.
Do you not even follow your own colleagues in media?
FiveThirtyEight said, based on current projections, late-coming ballots might actually lean Republican.
They're hurting themselves, if they only paid attention.
Details.
Many prognosticators say that on election night, Trump will likely appear ahead in Pennsylvania, though the state's final outcome could change substantially as mail-in ballots are counted over the following days.
Trump's team is preparing to claim baselessly that if that process changes the outcome in Pennsylvania from the picture on election night, then Democrats would have stolen the election.
Trump's advisers have been laying the groundwork for this strategy for weeks, but this is the first account of Trump explicitly discussing his election night intentions.
Notice how this... Oh man, I really don't like this guy.
Is this Jonathan Swan?
Yeah.
What he has done here is he has made everything up.
Think about it.
They say, people have said Trump will declare victory if it looks like he's winning.
He'll only be able to do this, of course, if he actually wins.
Then he somehow turns this into Trump is secretly trying, he's been planning a strategy to claim, to steal the election by claiming they stole the election.
Where did this come from?
It's ridiculous.
It seems like he literally just made this up.
Many prognosticators say, you know, Trump is, his advisors have been laying the groundwork for this strategy.
Trump explicitly discussing his knight's intention.
See what they did here?
They've been planning a strategy to rob a bank, and now we're learning of Trump's true plans.
Makes it sound like you're saying Trump wants to rob a bank.
This is ridiculous.
The media lies all the time.
As for a comment, the Trump campaign's communications director Tim Murdoch said,
this is nothing but people trying to create doubt about a Trump victory.
When he wins, he is going to say so. Trump campaign senior advisor Jason Miller predicted
that Trump will be reelected handily and no amount of post-election Democratic thievery
will be able to change the results. Reality check. Mail-in ballots counted after Election Day,
as set forth in state-by-state rules, are as legitimate as in-person votes recorded on November 3rd.
Many states won't be done counting mail ballots by Tuesday night.
Why?
Why can they not count the mail ballots by Tuesday night, but they can count all the regular ones?
Are you saying it's because mail-in ballots won't come in until after election day?
Perhaps.
But I still find it odd that early votes are coming in.
FiveThirtyEight says that Democrats are sending in their mail ballots at way higher numbers than requested, meaning election night should favor Republicans.
That's the data.
But the journalists are still saying, no, no, no, no, it'll be Democrats.
Yeah, because you're playing dirty games.
Many states won't be done counting ballots by Tuesday night.
In Pennsylvania, state law prevents election officials from counting mail-in ballots before Election Day.
Interesting.
So, what's different about a mail-in ballot as opposed to a regular ballot?
Why do these take longer?
More envelopes, maybe?
I mean, okay, fine.
Legitimate question.
Night of counts may be deceptive.
It could be days, if not weeks, before we know who won Pennsylvania.
If it's a close race, this could also be true for other states, given the record numbers of Americans who voted by mail this year.
Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Bookvar said on NBC's Meet the Press Today that there could be 10 times as many mail ballots this year than in 2016.
So yes, it will take longer to count.
What about regular ballots?
Those are easy to count?
This is ridiculous.
I expect that the overwhelming majority of ballots in Pennsylvania that's mail-in and absentee, as well as in-person ballots will be counted within a matter of days.
What we're watching, Miller on ABC's This Week predicted 290-plus electoral votes for Trump on election night, and he claimed Democrats are just going to try and steal it back after the election.
He described any prospective challenges by Democrats as hijinks or lawsuits or whatever kind of nonsense.
I'd like to let you know of the serious risks we're going to see here on election night.
They say with, you know, 87, 90 precincts reporting, Pennsylvania has gone for Trump.
Then all of the outlets are going to say, but wait, there's still mail-in ballots.
So we don't know for sure because we don't know what votes are coming.
Get it?
Everybody votes in person.
We have the ballots in front of us.
We count them.
Okay, we have way more votes for Trump than remaining ballots.
Trump won.
Now what's going to happen is they're going to say, we actually don't know how many mail-in ballots might come in now.
So we don't know who won or didn't.
We'll have to wait.
But all the precincts will report Donald Trump winning.
It's what they call the Red Mirage, at least what Bloomberg's people are calling it.
Donald Trump will say, we've won in all of these states, period.
He's gonna have commanding leads in all of them, but we won't know how many mail-in ballots are remaining.
Then, the American people will hear it from Donald Trump.
You'll probably hear it from someone like me when I see they say, you know, right now it looks like Donald Trump has won because of this and that reason.
Mainstream media will say something else.
Leftists and Democrats who watch mainstream media will hear, nobody won yet.
People who are on conservative and independent media will hear, there's no way Trump can lose.
Trump will have won on election night.
We won!
days later, mail-in votes will come in and it'll swing a state and Joe Biden will be
the winner.
Trump will sue and challenges saying chain of custody, perhaps, and, you know, claim
some kind of dirty games.
And Democrats are going to be like, oh, no, see, we won.
The media says we did.
For the rest of us, we're going to be watching the results and say, there it is.
It won't matter.
We are being set up perfectly for some kind of civil war.
I know, ha ha ha, laugh, right?
But think about it.
If you and I don't trust the mainstream media, then when we see the results come in, we're gonna be like, that's it.
There's no amount of mail-in ballots that could swing for Trump, and then all of a sudden they're gonna find hundreds of thousands, it's gonna be, what?
No way!
Makes no sense.
People are mailing in their ballots now.
Democrats are saying, don't mail in your ballots anymore.
Go in person.
So where will these mail-in ballots come from?
They're going to find them.
In Miami, there was a video where they're like, look, we found a bunch of ballots in this room.
They must be counted.
My attitude is no chain of custody.
You throw them in the trash.
Sorry.
Chain of custody is everything.
But Democrats shattered that.
There are going to be two realities.
There are two realities.
And they're going to crash and split so hard this next week, I am worried, I tell you what.
Now I want to show you at least one response.
Jack Posobiec says, in response to the news that Trump is going to declare victory, Jack says not exactly.
Trump has said he wants to take two out of three, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and one of, and either Pennsylvania or Florida, before doing something like that.
This is just someone throwing gum at the wall and hoping it would stick because it's believable and the election is in two days.
My fear is that if Trump, look, in the midterms, I predicted Republicans would win.
And they all did.
I was 100% right.
For a week.
And then mail-in ballots came in, and over the next several days, all of the races flipped, and I was like, whoa, what happened?
How is that possible?
Mail-in votes, they said.
But we didn't have a big push for mail-in votes in 2018.
That's right.
And no one did anything about it.
I don't know who's gonna win.
My gut says Donald Trump.
My head says Joe Biden.
My head's saying Joe Biden because the Democrats have been cheating nonstop the entire time.
I don't care if I get banned on YouTube, it's a fact.
They changed the rules early.
They claimed it was for COVID.
It's cheating.
Altering the rules unilaterally.
Unilaterally.
I pulled a Biden, sorry.
And then saying, you don't get to win on election day because we have mail-in ballots now.
You changed the rules without vote?
Through edict?
There's no solution.
It's gonna go to the courts.
And I think Trump has to win.
These people are cheating.
They claim voter suppression is cheating.
Listen, playing by the rules and using every edge is, I would call it cutthroat, but not cheating.
If you lay the rules out and someone plays by them and does well, they're just better than you.
And if you don't like the way they're playing, that's called cutthroat.
What you're doing is cheating.
Changing the rules unilaterally to benefit yourselves.
Two days.
I got a couple more segments coming up in a few minutes.
Stick around and I will see you all shortly.
Scott Adams, creator of Dilbert, tweeted a while ago that if Trump wins, they will begin hunting Republicans.
And everybody collectively rolled their eyes.
Except for his fans, of course.
And I rolled my eyes and went, oh jeez, no one's getting hunted.
I think it's funny because, you know, I...
Pride myself on being a few steps ahead of the market in terms of forecasts and things like that.
Not always right, of course nobody is, but I get some things right.
Technology-wise, you know, I do a pretty good job.
That's been like basically what boosted my career.
I'm always one step ahead technology-wise.
Well, Scott Adams said this, and then we saw, first, a man named Aaron Danielson hunted.
He was stalked by an Antifa guy and then shot twice in the chest.
And I said, I owe Scott Adams an apology.
Not that it was, you know, Biden winning and then Republicans being hunted, but it was an instance that showed us the door is open.
An Antifa guy hunted down a Trump supporter.
We see him on camera stalking the guy and then killed him.
Sounds like Scott Adams wasn't outside the realm of possibility and probably should have taken him a bit more seriously.
Then we saw Robert Reich and many others, NPR, say that we need truth and reconciliation commissions to heal the nation.
Name every collaborator, everyone, every mogul who helped Donald Trump.
Yep, Scott Adams was right.
To what extent, I don't know, but the door is open, and what he was saying doesn't seem all that absurd anymore.
Well now he's saying something really scary.
Scott Adams said, Wow.
If Trump wins, he might need to physically stay at the White House just so the security
forces defending it after the election have authority to use lethal force against an Antifa
megamob.
Otherwise, security would be forced to retreat if badly outnumbered.
Wow.
The argument, I suppose, is that Antifa is planning a massive uprising in D.C. for sure,
especially if Trump wins.
My understanding is they're planning it no matter what happens.
But if it's Trump, if they try to overrun the White House and Trump flees the White House, they'll take it.
Trump will be on a helicopter somewhere and the security forces will flee and the White House will fall into the hands of Antifa.
I don't know exactly what that would mean.
If Trump is in the White House, then they would have the ability to use a lethal force.
They would have to.
I hope none of this happens, but I'm warning everybody.
I don't think people realize just what we're about to walk into.
You know, they don't get it.
I've seen this before.
I've been in countries when things like this happen, and I couldn't believe it either.
I was in Ukraine, the start of the Euromaidan protests, and it was boring.
Nothing was happening.
You wanna know a funny story?
The guys I was with from Vice were looking at everything, the people were leaving, it was cold, and they said, this is a waste of time, we should go back.
And I said, no, we should stick around and wait, because it always slows down, and then you don't know what's gonna happen.
No, we should go back.
I said no again.
They said, Tim, if you want to stay, you stay.
We're leaving.
And I said, no, that's ridiculous.
I can't stay in this country by myself with no colleagues, no assistants.
That's insane.
That's conflict 101.
Have support.
So we all left.
As soon as we landed, back in London, is the funniest thing.
Somebody threw cables over the head and arm of a Lenin statue and toppled it and destroyed it.
And the CEO, Shane, was like, do our guys in Ukraine have the footage?
And the head of news for Europe was like, they just got back to the office.
And he was like, what?
Why?
And I was laughing.
I told you so!
We had to fly back.
And then they used a local freelancer who had filmed it and bought the footage from him.
Then we stuck around.
People think like nothing's gonna happen.
Oh, it's calmed down.
It's gonna be fine.
And then I ended up leaving because I couldn't stay there forever.
The activists started occupying buildings.
They were tearing up records and it was those documents everywhere they were going through.
It was kind of crazy.
Then the violence started.
People started shooting at each other.
Molotovs were being thrown at government vehicles.
And it culminated with Yanukovych, the president, fleeing to Russia.
And that was when nobody thought anything was going to happen.
That was after we sat in Kiev and my colleagues at Vice said, there's no way anything happens.
This is boring.
It's time to go.
And I said, no.
So here's what I'm saying now.
I have been in periods where it seems like everything's fine and normal.
And then it happens.
And it can happen here.
And several journalists have been warning that it could for a long time.
A lot of people don't want to believe it.
Because nobody wants to be an alarmist.
Nobody wants to be the guy running down the street screaming, the end is nigh.
I don't know what's going to happen.
But I'm warning you that something could happen.
Lethal force.
That's actually horrifying.
But I always say, okay?
Look to the wealthy.
You know why?
They know things.
They have connections.
They know the politicians.
They know security forces.
They have private security.
From page six, celeb-packed apartments do be protected by armed guards on election day.
Do you have armed guards?
Are you prepared for what might actually happen on election night or the following week?
I don't know.
Could be a whole lot of nothing.
Maybe Trump declares victory, maybe they laugh, and maybe a week or two goes by and nothing happens, and then maybe it falls to Biden, Biden wins, Trump shakes his hand, and then we're all back to normal and life is great!
I don't think so.
I don't think so.
And I put my money where my mouth is.
And you know it.
I'm in the middle of nowhere now.
I have seen situations go from boring to literal revolution.
I don't know if Scott Adams is right or an alarmist.
Maybe he's a little bit of both.
Maybe he's a little right.
I mean, we haven't seen Republicans being hunted for the most part, but one guy was.
Listen, there's a viral video going around of leftists, some leftists I recognize, and they're talking about whoever has the guns can win.
They're talking about storming buildings and taking them over.
They've mapped out all the police stations, and I believe they do intend to lay siege, as they said.
Now, initially the protest plan was for September 17th, where they were going to siege the White House.
They cancelled it eventually.
Probably because they realized calling on people to lay siege to the White House was horrifying.
It was going to get them in trouble.
They tried changing it to improvisational jazz at the White House.
That didn't work.
Because they knew it was coming.
So ultimately it got cancelled.
But they're still shut down D.C.
There's, um, what is it called?
It's called Protect the Count, I believe.
Something like that.
And all of these protests are planned for mass nationwide events.
Do I think they'll get violent?
Yes, 100%.
Because these people have already shown us over the past several months they're going to get violent.
Do I believe that there is a real threat to the safety and security of the individual outside of just government institutions?
Absolutely.
That's why celebrities are hiring armed guards.
Security agencies have an intelligence apparatus to determine and assess threats.
So when you call a security company and say, we're going to do X, we need a security assessment.
They'll go over all the details.
Many of these security companies have the ability to track social media and even text messages.
I kid you not.
Something we talked about eight years ago called Vigilance Dashboard.
I believe this is Pinkerton.
It allows them to track social media and create, they can actually create geofenced areas in their database to show them what people are saying in key areas.
I used to track this stuff back in the day.
You could geolocate tweets and see what people were saying about what certain things and where they were saying it.
I don't know if any far leftists are going to try and take the White House or anything like that.
They're talking about it, but people talking big on Zoom calls doesn't mean a whole lot to me.
The fact that Scott Adams thinks it, though, I'll tell you this.
I'm not going to make the same mistake of laughing it off and ignoring it, though I don't necessarily believe it will come down to security forces using lethal force against Antifa outside the White House.
It might.
I'm not going to just immediately poo-poo the idea because we watched an Antifa guy stalk two Trump supporters and then put two bullets in his chest.
We know how crazy things are, we know what everyone has been saying, and I believe there won't be election results.
What I mean to say is, Trump and Trump's faction are going to have evidence stating that Trump won.
The Democrats, the Biden faction, are going to have evidence claiming Biden won.
Both will argue why they are right.
Maybe it just goes to the Supreme Court, and maybe that's it.
But I believe That based on the hatred for Trump, if Donald Trump wins the presidency through a Supreme Court ruling, a non-vote technicality, we will see the troubles.
We will see insurgency.
And that's what many security experts believe the Civil War will look like.
Maybe nothing happens.
I honestly have no idea.
I'll just tell you what I've done.
I have not prepped for a 30 year lockdown.
However, I have moved to the middle of nowhere.
But this was kind of two birds with one stone.
I want to live in the middle of nowhere.
I love having big open space and skating and being loud and playing music and not bothering anybody or being bothered by anybody.
So I figured, you know what?
I'm worried about the violence.
I'm gonna go find somewhere in the middle of nowhere.
Turns out I was right.
Riots erupted in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia in the past week and it's particularly bad.
National Guard was deployed.
I don't want to be there.
And I'm glad I'm not.
So I think I made the right choice as it stands now.
I've bought a decent amount of supplies.
Nothing over the top, and nothing from supermarkets.
I haven't gone to supermarkets and raided any shelves.
I've just been ordering things.
You know, being able to start fires, being able to rope and stuff like that.
And not even all that much.
I started thinking about things that a house generally needs that you typically don't think about.
Maybe you got a leak, you gotta fix a leak, you need some kind of like flex tape or something, and I'm like, we should probably have that.
We should probably have, like, some backup batteries.
I didn't get any crazy generators, I'm not prepping for the end of the world.
But I did get some backup batteries, just because a house should have some.
I figured, it's kind of, it's not full-on prepping.
But it's preparing for something.
And I think it's because we are going to see serious unrest.
I don't think it'll be as bad as Scott Adams says it is.
But, it could be close.
And that's the issue.
I don't know what you're doing, but I do know that many people have went out and bought guns recently.
I'm definitely on high alert.
I've had some things happen in the past few days that probably I would say brought me to like I don't know.
On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is your average day, nothing's happening and you're not worried about anything, and 10 is full-scale revolt and people are shooting at each other, I've seen some information that puts me at like a 3 or 4.
That's personally, like for my personal safety.
And based on everything else we've seen, I think we're at a 5.
Now what does that mean?
It means I think we're at the point where we might see combat.
Lethal combat.
Not full-scale revolution or revolt, just we've already seen fighting in the streets, which is basically four, and then five is now we're gonna see more consistent death.
That's my fear.
Look, I don't know for sure.
I'm just some dude.
Maybe I'm wrong about everything.
Sometimes I am.
It's fine.
Whatever.
Maybe all of this blows over because nobody wants to get involved in a fight.
And I hope that's the case.
And I hope y'all are safe.
I'm gonna do my... I have my plan to stay safe.
And I hope y'all have general plans for any natural disaster.
And you take any real threat of violence seriously.
And get ready.
Tuesday.
I got one more segment coming up in a few minutes.
Stick around and I will see you all shortly.
The purge of social media has begun.
Already I'm getting inundated with messages from people saying I was banned, I was blocked, I was locked out, my page was shut down.
And Donald Trump actually intervened and helped one page, one page out of all the other pages, Okay, maybe a little strong on that one.
Okay, I'll walk that back.
NJ women for Trump group with 29,000 members and admits to enforcement error after present
flag that had been taken down without reason.
No, no, no, no.
I'm sorry.
It's not an enforcement error.
It's Facebook actively conspiring against the United States.
OK, maybe a little strong on that one.
OK, I'll walk that back.
Facebook is doing everything in its power to subvert our democratic process.
The Democrats have done the same thing with changing our voting structure.
And they would say that we are the ones, that Trump is the one cheating and changing the rules and moving the goalposts.
Facebook is banning group after group and journalists.
Ladies and gentlemen, Ford Fisher.
Ford Fisher is a journalist respected and loathed by everyone.
What I mean by that is he's respected by everyone, both sides or all factions, and loathed by many people of all factions because, as a journalist, he covers the news and it's not flattering for everybody.
Ford says, I just posted a video of police arresting protesters onto Facebook.
When I went to share it into a group, it's a group for supporters and friends, of Bose TFC's fifth column network, I got banned from, quote, complex entity interactions until December 29th.
Reporting the error yielded an error.
He says, this is the video itself for some reason or another.
Facebook has taken the position that viewers should not be able to share videos of riot police arresting activists during election season.
It's very, very strange.
So what does this mean?
You are temporarily restricted from complex entities interactions until December 29th.
Until the new year?
Ford is banned from sharing these videos until the new year?
Why?
What's going to happen?
In December.
Makes you think, doesn't it?
I don't know.
Sounds like Facebook is taking a particularly heavy hand.
I mean, to be fair, they maybe don't want fake news being spread just before the election and just after it, but December 29th is well after the election.
Could it be something big is on the horizon, and it's going to be really, really bad for all of us?
Perhaps.
Facebook reinstated this one group, and that's exactly what you'd expect from Facebook.
They'll ban a thousand people, one or two of them will get the attention of the crowd, and Facebook will say, that was a mistake!
Welcome back.
We'll ban them later.
There are some people who are safe because they're so high-profile, and there are many people who are medium-profile and decently-sized groups that only get banned because no one knows about them.
There have been way more groups than just this one that have been banned, and only this one is getting put back because the president intervened.
Trump wasn't supposed to win in 2016, and they know it.
We know it.
Everyone knows it.
And they're mad, and they're coming back with a vengeance.
This, to me, what we're seeing from Facebook, and yes, Twitter, let me show you what Twitter's doing, is the most nightmarish election interference.
I'm sorry, ladies and gentlemen, I'm sorry, I have to say it.
Twitter, I believe I have evidence, is actively trying to suppress Republican votes for Trump and prop up Democratic votes.
I mean this 100%, and I believe I have evidence to suggest that Twitter is doing it on purpose.
They are actively suppressing conservative votes.
Let me show you.
From Vox.
Trump keeps telling people to vote twice, even though that's a crime.
Really, Vox?
Very, very interesting.
What is this?
Trump tweeted, North Carolina, to make sure your ballot counts, sign and send it in early.
When polls open, go to your polling place to see if it was counted.
If not, vote.
Your signed ballot will not count because your vote has been posted.
Don't let them illegally take your vote away from you.
Twitter placed a block on this tweet.
It says, This tweet violated the Twitter rules about civic and election integrity.
However, Twitter has determined that it may be in the public's interest for the tweet to remain accessible.
But you can see there's no retweets.
There's no shares.
I don't know what happens if I try and like it.
You can't.
I can't like it.
We try to prevent a tweet like this that is otherwise breaking the rules from reaching more people.
Donald Trump told his supporters, If on election day you're not sure your ballot has been counted, go and vote, because if your ballot comes in afterwards, they kick it back.
Okay?
Twitter blocked this.
Let me show you this tweet from Politico.
Mark Caputo covers the 2020 campaign and Florida, Florida, Florida for Politico.
Now, I don't know who follows Mark Caputo, but he posted this.
If you live in Florida and believe your absentee ballot has been lost in the mail or it seems late arriving, you can still vote in person at an early vote station this weekend or election day.
Your absentee ballot will be auto-canceled if it arrives after you vote in person.
Huh.
Okay.
There's two ways to take this.
I want to make sure I'm being reasonable here.
Is what he's saying is your absentee ballot lost in the mail before you actually received it?
That's what I think he means by late arriving.
Well, it sounds like he's telling people, to me, the way I heard it, was that he said, if you've sent in your absentee ballot, and it seems to be late arriving, you can still vote in person.
And the reason I believe that's the case is because he said, your absentee ballot will be auto-canceled if it arrives after you vote in person.
Sounds like what Trump said.
To be fair, maybe because his is a bit vague, and it may sound like what he's saying is that if you didn't get your absentee ballot, you can go vote in person.
Maybe that's what he's saying.
Sure.
You know why I think he's not saying that?
And you know why I think the honest interpretation is that he's telling people to vote twice?
Why would he say you can still vote in person?
Of course you can vote in person!
Of course you can!
It's called going and voting.
We always do it.
If you didn't get your mail-in ballot, you go and vote in person.
That's normal.
Why would he need to tell people they can still do it?
Of course you could.
You could always do it.
You can't just still do it.
You can do it.
Your absentee ballot will be auto-canceled if it arrives after you vote.
To me, It sounds like what he's saying is, if you get your absentee ballot and send it in, then if it doesn't arrive on time or it feels like it's lost in the mail, you go vote in person and don't worry, they'll cancel it.
Sounds like that's what Trump said.
Maybe his is a bit more vague and may actually, you know, maybe they're saying, oh, he's just saying, you know, he's just saying that, um, You know, if you didn't get it in time, take a look at this.
His tweet was in response to Dem House leaders saying, raw footage of mailroom and post office here in Miami Dade.
Source revealed mail-in ballots are within these piled up bins on the floor.
Mail has been sitting for over a week.
In response to this tweet, many people said these ballots must be counted.
In fact, I don't know if I can pull up any direct responses, but many people are saying the ballots must, must, must be counted, right?
Someone said, what would Republicans do if they couldn't cheat?
Lose!
Aha!
All concerns about fraud and suppression should focus on Republican efforts.
Blah, blah, blah, blah.
Why would it be that the votes need to be counted if they weren't even filled out yet?
And if someone didn't receive their mail-in ballot, well, they would just go and vote in person.
It's simple.
While I'm trying to give the benefit of the doubt and say there's potential I'm wrong on this one, it sounds like Twitter is letting a journalist tell Democrats, propping up a Democratic tweet, saying, go vote twice.
At the very least, shouldn't this be flagged as bad information because it's unclear?
Donald Trump tweeted essentially the same thing.
And mind you, I don't know about the rules of North Carolina, but in New York and several other states, there are similar rules.
So check your rules because Trump was not wrong.
Twitter has stopped the president from telling his supporters, here's what you can do.
But Twitter is allowing a journalist for Politico to tell Democrats what they can do.
And it sounds like the exact same thing.
Now again, maybe he's saying, you requested an absentee ballot, it never showed up, so you can still go vote in person.
Okay.
Then why would it matter if your ballot is auto-canceled?
You just throw it in the trash, you just didn't get it.
Why would he be showing a video of mail-in ballots piled up in bins, undelivered?
Why would people be saying the ballots must be counted?
Because the assumption is, and the insinuation is, you can vote twice.
There are some states that allow this.
So it's... I'm not surprised someone would be saying it.
The president, however, is not allowed.
So, my friends, dirty games are afoot.
But I would like to leave you with some words of wisdom.
I don't know if you saw the news, but I would just like to say, on Tuesday, do not vote for true in... true in and honest Shabbat oppression.
If you're not familiar with this reference, I feel bad for you.
No, I'm kidding.
It's Joe Biden's gibberish statement versus Trump's gibberish statement.
True in on a shop at a pressure leaves us confused and uninspired.
Coffee fee is the original same great taste, you know, and love.
I don't always vote, but when I do, I vote coffee fee.
If you're not familiar with this reference, I feel bad for you.
No, I'm kidding.
It's Joe Biden's gibberish statement versus Trump's gibberish statement.
Look, I don't know what's going to happen, but I know I'm allowed to tweet that Joe Biden
said true in.
True in in Nana.
Truen Inanana Shaba Depression.
I transcribed this.
It was very difficult.
I don't know.
I don't know what's going to happen.
I'm probably going to get banned off YouTube.
I think after the results come in, we're going to see a bunch of craziness, we're going to see a bunch of videos, and I'm going to be told I'm not allowed to talk about it.
Project Veritas will probably find evidence, there'll be a bunch of videos popping up saying, look what's happening, and YouTube will tell me no.
And they'll delete my videos.
I guess we'll see.
But if that's what it is, then you know what?
It's been nice knowing ya!
I hope you're ready for whatever happens, and we'll just have to wait and see.
