"Midterm Referendum" frames the 2024 election as a binary choice: Democrats, led by "radicals" like Ocasio-Cortez (12%) and Newsom (declined from 37%), pushing endless investigations, or Republicans upholding Trump’s economic gains and global stance. Early Texas GOP turnout surged to 542,000+ ballots in six days, while Democrats boycotted the State of the Union, refusing even symbolic support for policies like ICE funding—despite Messina’s warnings. A Kansas caller’s tax savings ($5,250 vs. $12,020) under Trump’s cuts contrast with Democratic opposition, suggesting their victory could derail his agenda and invite chaos, echoing 2018’s voter apathy. [Automatically generated summary]
It's 800-941 Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
I have been telling all of you that this is the single most important midterm in our lifetime.
And I'm only asking one thing of the 20-plus million listeners that we have to this radio program on 750, 60 stations, whatever the number is.
And that is this year, I am asking one thing that in your mind, you make a commitment that you are not going to sit out this midterm election.
This is the biggest choice election you'll have in your lifetime.
You elect Democrats and the result is going to be predictable.
And that is that there's going to be endless investigation, rancor, hostility, madness.
The radicals now run this party.
I mean, the Mamdani party.
Or you're going to want America to continue to progress economically to achieve a golden era of prosperity for every American.
And you're going to want to progress and create freedom around the world with the Trump doctrine that I think is the perfect doctrine.
You know, all of that is on the ballot.
Now, I'm not really looking closely at polls.
There was a good poll by Insider Advantage last week, Matt Towery, our friend, 50-46, the approval rating of the president.
If you look at the mainstream media and the legacy media mob that have never polled Donald Trump right, they would tell you Donald Trump is at historically low levels for any sitting president.
I don't believe them.
I think they've been wrong again and again.
Let's go to fake news, CNN.
Harry Enton says no clear Democratic frontrunner for president.
It's a downright clown car.
This isn't what he said.
This is just a downright clown car at this point on the Democratic side.
I mean, just take a look here.
Top choices for the 2028 Demprez nominee.
You have a leader, but it's not really a clear leader.
It's within the margin rare.
You have Newsom at 19%.
Then you have former Vice President Kamala Harris at 18%.
Quite a weak number for her, given that, of course, she was the nominee the last time around.
Pete Buttigieg, who of course has run before 13%.
Alexandria Casio-Cortez at 12%.
This is just a total clown car.
It is a total mess.
There is no clear frontrunner at this particular point on the Democratic side.
Who the heck knows who the nominee is going to be in three, two years?
It's been a long time since we've had a Democratic race like this.
Yeah, it has been a long time.
This is very unusual for the Democratic side to not have a clear frontrunner at this point.
National early poll leader at least 25%.
Look at this.
This year, we get the giant question mark.
No one.
No one, no one, no one.
In 2021, there was no incumbent.
It was Joe Biden who was there.
Hillary Clinton in both 08 and 16.
And Al Gore in both 2000 and 2004 at this point were at least at 25% of the early press.
You have to go all the way back, all the way back from when I wasn't even in elementary school yet, not even in pre-K yet, to 1992.
That was the last cycle in which there was no clear frontrunner at this point.
Very unusual.
And what's interesting, after my big fight with Gavin Newsom yesterday, Linda, did you notice after I kept hitting him and hitting him and hitting him?
He went away.
All of a sudden, he got very quiet.
I don't think he wanted to engage with me anymore.
You think that maybe he realizes I am unrelenting when it comes to Twitter fights.
I won't stop.
And if you don't believe me, look at my history with Alec Baldwin and with Jimmy Kimmel.
Is it true?
If you engage in a Twitter war with me, it's over.
Or an X war to be more.
I mean, I remember the Acosta days.
They were rough.
Oh, yeah.
Fake news, Acosta.
But eventually they quit.
They cry, uncle.
They give up.
Well, I think if we're being honest, we both know that De Niro and Newsom went home last night and gave each other a big hug and cried together.
I think you're probably right about that.
Interesting.
Mike Lee put up a post.
What is the best thing the GOP could do to boost GOP voter turnout in 26?
And, you know, I think these are really good questions we need to ask.
And I'd rather be asking them now than asking them the day after the midterms and saying, well, what went wrong?
And I think to be introspective, self-reflective, making course corrections is always a smart thing to do.
But for the first time since early voting began, the GOP has outvoted Democrats, you know, in this one particular district in the state of Texas.
And I think that's very, very important.
Over 542,000 Republican primary ballots in just six days.
And it's dramatically higher than 2022.
That's going to be very interesting to watch.
And anyway, here's Harry Enton talking about how Gavin Newsom is flailing.
I don't think his little fight with me dropping F-bombs on me and me dropping them back helped him.
But here's what he said.
Seems to me that Gavin Newsom is flailing a little bit, at least compared to where he was prior.
Because just take a look here.
Okay, Chance Newsome is the 2028 Democratic nominee three months ago, according to the cash prediction market.
Look at that.
It was a 37% chance.
Now it's just a 28%.
Down he goes.
He's definitely flailing a little bit.
And I will note, John, I will note that it also seems to me people are a little less interested in Gavin Newsom than they used to be.
Look at this.
Google searches for Gavin Newsom down 63% from the August peak.
You remember back then, it was when he started that social media, right, going after President Trump.
There was a lot of interest from Democratic voters, but maybe that interest is waning off just a little bit.
And of course, you don't necessarily want to wane it off just yet because I think we still have a lot of time till the votes.
Anyway, here to weigh in on all of this.
And as we head into the State of the Union tonight, don't forget our coverage, 11 o'clock, right after the president and Abigail Spanberger.
Don't worry, she'll speak for less than 10 minutes and be boring as hell.
But voter turnout for early voting in both Texas and Georgia are incredibly strong right now, in many cases, also for Democrats.
But what does it mean?
Democrats historically vote early vote more than Republicans do, but I hope Republicans are turning out in numbers too.
John McLaughlin, his brother Jim, are with us from the McLaughlin and Associates group.
Gentlemen, welcome back, Jim.
It's nice of you to show up on time.
I can't believe it.
Only for you, Sean, will I show up on time.
Great to be here.
Yeah, but because John always shows up on time, I'll start with him.
What do you make of this early voting and where do we stand, you know, now, what, eight months away from these midterms?
By the way, thanks for the opportunity, and it's great to be here.
But with Linda, this is really like a three-on-one McLaughlin match with Sean Hannity as we get ready for St. Patrick's Month.
That's what it takes three-on-one if you're going to battle against me.
Oh, my God.
When we have Linda on our side, that's when we have a chance.
No, notice the two McLaughlin brothers hoping that the other McLaughlin can bail them out.
You know, the female McLaughlin.
Geez, that speaks volumes about toxic masculinity.
Yes.
But to your point, originally, there's a lot of fake polls out there right now.
I mean, when you look, the economist YouGov put out a poll today of 1,551 adult citizens that, you know, God knows who these adults are.
They have only 35% Trump voters in their poll.
They have actually 39% Harris voters.
They put out a poll with more Harris voters than Trump voters.
And didn't we get 50%?
Didn't we get 50% in the last election?
They are submarining us with these polls trying to convince us that Trump has the lowest numbers ever.
Now, Matt Towery often tracks close with ours, like our January poll had Trump with 50% job approval, 47% disapproval.
And absolutely.
It's almost a direct match of Matt Towery.
And you, Matt Towery, Robert Caheli are the three people for three presidential elections.
And Rash Musen, by the way, I got to give them a tip of the hat.
The four people that tend to poll Donald Trump accurately.
Yep.
And thank heaven for Jim and I because we got to deliver those poll numbers to him.
And he still tells me those aren't right.
I have my best poll numbers ever.
And I'm like, nah, you were best on election day, but that was the good, that was good timing when you swept all seven battleground states and we won the popular vote because he made our polls right.
And right now, by the way, November, he's not on the ballot.
He's not on the ballot.
The Republicans for Congress are, and they think that Donald Trump's going to lift them to get reelected.
No, I mean, Donald Trump is succeeding as president, but they better draw a contrast election with the Democrats November because you've got, I mean, think about it.
Donald Trump went after Joe Biden.
Kamala Harris straight up was the better president, won on issues whether it was tax cuts, whether it was strengthening defense, securing the borders.
He did it.
The Republicans in Congress better go after the Democrats because the Democrats, they voted against the Trump tax cuts for the largest tax cut in history.
They are now defending illegal immigrants to stay in this country by going after immigration enforcement officers.
So that's an issue that 80, in our last poll, 87% to 10 Americans favored deporting illegal immigrants.
And the Democrats are shutting down the government precisely to keep criminal illegal immigrants in this country.
So the Republicans, and the SAVAC, voter ID for to vote in the United States, it's an 80-20 issue, and Republicans need to get that through the Senate so it has passed.
But the Republicans better have an agenda like Newt Gingrich had in 94 with the Contract for America, or like Donald Trump had in 2024 versus Kamala Harris that we were able to win that election.
It's a contrast election.
And right now in the polls I was talking about, the Republicans are losing the generic ballot for Congress 44 to 47.
We need to go to war with the Democrats, have a good contrast election and win in November and bring the Trump voters back out.
All right, we continue with our pollsters heading into tonight's State of the Union.
Remember our coverage right after the president speaks at about 11 o'clock Eastern time.
Of course, we have the Democratic response, Abigail Spanberger, but that's less than 10 minutes.
That'll be boring as hell.
But stay there because we're going to have great coverage analysis that you'll never get from anyone else in the legacy media mob right after the State of the Union around 11 o'clock Eastern Time.
Look forward to that tonight from Washington.
I do think that Trump in one way is on the ballot in that it will be a little bit of a referendum.
And I think a lot of people need to understand that the president's agenda will be stopped right in its tracks if, in fact, Democrats get control of Congress.
There'll be endless investigation, impeachment, and the country's progress will stop and will have nothing but endless distractions.
And I think that should be top of mind for voters also.
Jim, what do you think?
Oh, without a doubt.
And I think Susie Wiles, she gets it better than anybody because she said we're putting President Trump and his common sense, successful agenda.
We're putting that on the ballot in this election.
And that's one of the reasons why the Republicans underperformed back in 2018 during the midterms, because we literally had millions of Trump voters that didn't come out for the midterms.
We need to make sure we get these folks out.
And the best way we're going to get them out there is a contrast with these Democrats on the issues that people care about most.
Just think about this.
I mean, the Democrats are the party, they want open borders.
That's what they want.
Literally, as John said, the first shutdown, it was all about giving welfare benefits to illegals.
Now the new one is they want to defund, they literally want to defund ICE.
It's just like, you know, first they wanted to defund the police.
Now they want to defund ICE.
The other thing is this, is, look, if, God forbid, we put the Democrats in power, look what's going on.
I think the Democrats are making a huge mistake tonight by having Abigail Spamberger give the response because look what she did.
She, quote unquote, ran as a moderate.
Now she's governing as probably the most radical left-wing governor in the history of the state of Virginia.
She's come out supporting over 100 new tax increases, and that's the kind of stuff that the Democrats are going to give us right now.
And look.
The American people are also going to see Democrats.
Many of them don't show up in the room, but that's great because it gives room and seats for American hockey players, the ones that won gold for the first time since 1980.
I'm glad they're going to be in the room tonight.
They deserve it.
They make our country proud.
And if they're not going to stand at all or clap for the president at all, part of their strategy or at least telegraph strategy, what?
Then we have another moment where they look like they have no conscience or soul because they wouldn't stand for the family of Lake and Riley or Jocelyn Nungary.
Good luck with them with that strategy.
It's crazy.
And it shows the extremism that we have right now in the Democratic Party.
And, you know, one of the things that's interesting was when we used to do focus groups during the campaign, we'd ask swing voters, we'd ask swing voters, okay, what's Joe Biden's greatest accomplishment?
They would laugh at you.
They would literally laugh at you, and they couldn't give you any of his accomplishments.
But with Donald Trump, even some voters that are voting Democrat for Congress, they will give you real accomplishments when it comes to Donald Trump.
They'll tell you, well, you know, he cut our taxes or he secured the border or he's making, you know, cities safer and whatnot.
And that's going to be the contrast tonight.
And I think, by the way, I think the Democrats are making a big mistake with their counterprogramming and their boycotting the state of the union.
I think it's really bad for the country and they've set a horrible precedent.
I don't really care if they come or not.
I mean, if Donald Trump announced, I am here to announce that we have come up with a cure for cancer, they would sit there.
They wouldn't clap.
They wouldn't applaud.
They wouldn't celebrate a scientific breakthrough that's going to save how many millions of lives?
They wouldn't care.
Anyway, we're going to be watching tonight and we'll see what happens.
Our coverage begins at 11 o'clock Eastern.
But John, Jim McLaughlin, we appreciate both of you.
Find The Better Part Of Me00:05:42
Thank you.
Thank you, Sean.
Every time we play that bumper music from John Andrasik, Superman, Five for Fighting, I just love that song.
And he's a good friend of the program.
He apparently was in Washington, D.C. Didn't tell us why.
He said he would share it after the fact, but I'm going to find out why.
Unfortunately, I will miss him while I'm in D.C. tonight for the State of the Union.
And I wish I'd see him because I think the world of him and I love his music.
But every time we play that bumper music, I want to play more of the song because I really like it.
Play a little bit of Superman.
I'm not that nice.
I'm just out to find the better part of me.
I'm more than a bird.
I'm more than a plane.
I'm more than some pretty face beside a train.
And it's not easy to be healing.
I wish that I could cry.
Fall upon my knees and find a way to lie about a home I'll never see.
It may sound absurd, but something I need.
Even heroes have the right to bleed.
I may be disturbed, but won't you concede?
Even heroes have the right to dream.
It's not easy to be healing.
I'm okay.
Sound tonight.
I'm not crazy for anything.
I can't stand to fly.
By the way, you know what's amazing?
I mean, it's the story of Superman from Superman's perspective.
I mean, and he takes it, he turns it into this beautiful song.
And it's one of those moments I never really wish that I had another life.
I love the life that God gave me.
But every once in a while, I wish I could do what he can do and be a great musician, songwriter, and singer.
But we both know, Linda, that I can't sing.
You can sing.
I don't know why you'd ever pursued professional singing because I think you would have been amazing at it.
You're really good at it.
I mean, you did cover band singing for decades in your life and you're good.
You're great at it.
How come you never pursued it?
I did, actually.
I did.
I got a record contract and I gave up my job and my car and my apartment.
And I bought stuff to move to LA.
And the day before I left, they pulled the deal.
And that's why you pulled the deal.
You never told me that story all these years.
Yeah.
It's a very depressing story.
But yes, I got the deal and all the things.
And then they pulled it.
They decided to go with a boy band.
And the label only had room for one.
Did you curse at them and make them mad?
No, that was a dark time.
But I went back to school, got my master's, and just went a different direction.
You had 40 master's degrees after that.
Since I channeled it positively, I don't know.
It's so funny because we do have parallel lives in this sense is that I used to tembar at a wedding factory.
I'd do five weddings every weekend.
I became so cynical of weddings.
It was terrible.
I mean, I'd sit around with other bartenders and we'd be like, yeah, this couple is going to last like five minutes.
I mean, it was terrible.
Well, listen, it's worse for me because I had to work with them all as the MC and the lead singer.
And I would do people's first weddings, then I would do their second weddings, and I would do their third weddings because they liked me from their first and their second.
Oh, goodness.
You were the best part of the whole marriage.
I was like, I recognize that dress.
Oh, that's awkward.
Okay.
Just, you know, weird.
Oh, they'd wear the same dress?
There's so many things, Sean.
Honestly, I should do like a bunch of people.
You know, you get cynical.
Isn't it terrible?
I mean, I honestly wish that I did not have that experience in my life because you get so cynical.
I mean, you know, the cake.
Yeah, and the good thing is I went from that to politics, which really lifted me up.
That's a good point.
And then you see like both families, and you make judgments about the families.
I know this is terrible, but we would do this.
And every family, I always say, has an Uncle Joe.
Uncle Joe is the guy that would come up to the bar, you know, right after either the ceremony or right after, you know, right as the reception is beginning.
He'd hit you with a 20.
Why Borders Matter00:03:21
Keep them coming, kid.
Keep them coming all night.
You know, and I'd be like, okay, I'm going to keep them coming.
And by the time that night ended, I had 200 bucks from Uncle Joe, and he'd be the guy with the tie around his neck, his shirt half open, you know, sweating like a slob and, you know, to the song Celebrate Good Times, Come On.
I mean, I mean, what I will tell you, you've observed that.
I love a good Uncle Joe, though, because he gets the party started on the dance floor.
People get a little nervous sometimes.
And Uncle Joe already has his tie.
You know, it's wrapped around his forehead.
He's ready to go.
And everybody else gets up.
So sometimes I'm a big fan of that guy.
All right, because you want people to dance and be into your music.
I get it.
Of course.
Okay.
I just wanted people to come to my bar and give me money.
That was it.
Well, shout out to John Andrasik because he's back on Twitter.
So if you've never seen him in concert, go see him.
He's fantastic.
He puts on an amazing show.
So Democrats, there are some.
David Axarot is one.
I think Ram Rambo Deadfish is another.
Jim Messina, another.
These are, you know, former Clinton, some Obama people, warning Democrats against this idiocy of defunding and trying to abolish ICE and with it, the Coast Guard and FEMA and a bunch of other government agencies.
And here's what he had to say in his warning.
People do want accountability for ICE.
They want people held to action.
They want smart enforcement of our immigration laws.
What they don't want is to get rid of the federal agency that they think is responsible for keeping our borders safe.
All right.
So he's warning Democrats don't abolish ICE.
Then you have this idiot, Mr. Fang Fang, Eric Swalwell, who's nothing but a fraud to me, and he wants to be the next Gavin Newsome.
I mean, could you imagine that your goal in life is to aspire to be Gavin Newsome?
It was like that idiot at Fake News CNN is his only aspiration in life was to be the next Humpty Dumpty, which nobody except really a few of us know who I'm talking about.
But, you know, here's Mr. Fang Fang talking about ICE, and this is what he said, that he's not aware of any federal agency responsible for keeping our borders safe.
Are you really this stupid?
Listen.
So Jim Messina, who ran Barack Obama's 2016 campaign, has a warning for Democrats who say they want to see the abolishment of ICE.
Listen to what he says.
People do want accountability for ICE.
They want people held to action.
They want smart enforcement of our immigration laws.
What they don't want is to get rid of the federal agency that they think is responsible for keeping our borders safe.
What do you say to that?
I'm not aware of a federal agency that is responsible for keeping our borders safe.
I have seen a federal agency who has publicly executed a nurse named Predi and a mom named Good.
And I see Californians that I represent terrified.
Well, if you don't have people keeping your borders safe, you dope, then you're going to have known terrorists, murderers, rapists, child molesters, other violent criminals, gang members, cartel members in our country.
Oh, that's right.
We've been arresting them.
All right, let's get to our busy phones.
Mike is in Kansas.
Mike, how are you?
Border Security Concerns00:04:02
Glad you called, sir.
Hey, Sean, it's a gorgeous day in South Central Kansas.
That means it's freezing cold.
How bad is it?
Well, we got 65 degrees and hardly any wind.
That's not bad at all.
That is a gorgeous day.
Good for you.
Yeah.
Hey, I thought you'd be interested in some data because I got my taxes done early this year.
I got them back a few days ago, and I'm a retired educator, and so I got to take advantage of the Social Security, no tax on Social Security.
So I was just real curious.
My 25 taxes came back with a tax liability of $5,250.
That hurts, doesn't it?
I hate that.
But wait, it doesn't hurt near as bad as what it used to because I just got curious.
So I went back to 2015 and I plugged in my 25 income, the same income that I just got back, and I used the 2015 rates, the 2015 standard deduction, and I would have owed $12,020.
So the two Trump cuts of $17,000 and $25 basically saved me $6,800.
Well, I'm glad.
Let me tell you something.
That's real money.
Now, think of it this way.
You know, the average price of a gallon of gasoline is down significantly since Donald Trump became president.
The lowest, the last time I read was in, what, four years, five years, whatever period of time it is.
And now, do you drive a lot?
Oh, I chase grandkids.
Okay.
Chasing grandkids can be expensive.
I don't know what kind of car you have.
I have a gas-powered car and I have my Tesla.
But all I'm saying is when I used to go to the gas pump, and I can afford it now at this point in my life, but when I would fill up my car and it was $100, it drove me up a wall and I could afford it.
It still drove me crazy because in my mind's eye, I still think like I did when I didn't have any money.
I mean, that's a lot of money for people.
I filled up for $234 today, and I still fill up.
Every time I fill up for an amount like that, I think, God, dang, I'm glad it's not $4,425 like it was five years ago.
It was terrible.
I mean, I don't know.
Everybody just, this is why I hope people are paying attention and they go out and vote.
Anyway, my friend, appreciate it.
800-941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
So, Sean, I just wanted to say, I just wanted to say one thing to you before it's actually perfectly with that last caller.
We have been getting tons of phone calls about the no tax on tip, no tax on social security, no tax on overtime.
And I just wanted to say, for all of you that are calling in and cursing out Katie because Sean didn't say it right, please talk to your tax person, your accountant, whoever you use to do your taxes.
What do you mean I didn't say it right?
Well, what they're saying is it's not true that there are taxes.
And so up to a certain amount, it's tax-free.
There are still a percentage of Social Security that can be taxed based upon your current income if you have some sort of other income, if you have other things on your tax return.
So it's not a hard and fast rule across the board.
There is fine print as there is with everything.
The no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security.
No tax tax.
That goes up to a certain percentage.
I think it's $12,000.
But I mean, we've gone into great.
Well, maybe I just haven't said it recently.
Right, I mean, we're saying the platitude.
I'm just letting the audience know nobody's trying to lead you astray.
You know, talk to your tax, you know, person, talk to your accountant, and please let me know.
I feel like I'm being criticized by Gavin Newsom again today.
I'm not criticizing you.
I'm just asking folks to enough yesterday getting, you know, the F-word dropped on my head by a governor in the state of California and hurt my feelings and everything.
Just hurt.
I hope you can get over it.
Didn't hurt at all.
Children Show Chairs00:00:54
That's going to wrap things up for today.
Don't forget, President Trump is state of the union tonight.
Nine Eastern Hannity on the Fox News channel.
Democrats will be penchant children.
Those that show up, they have promised to sit in their chair.
Anyway, that's more room for the Olympic gold medal hockey team.
The men's hockey team is going to the state of the union.
All right, that's 9 Eastern.
We'll be on right after Panberger gives her five-minute lecture about radicalism.
But we'll have the best post-state of the union coverage.