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Oct. 29, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
31:27
Mark Penn - October 28th, Hour 3
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This is an iHeart Podcast.
Coming up next, our final news roundup and information overload hour.
News Roundup Information Overload Hour.
Here's our toll-free number uh this Monday, one week from today, it will be election day in America, uh election eve, actually, and every day's election day because well it just is if there's voting going on anywhere in the country.
But one week from today, election eve in America.
Our number is 800, 941 Sean.
If you want to be a part of the program now is a public service on Hannity.com if you're interested in your state, regardless of what party you're with, and you want to vote.
We have information on how to register.
Some states have same-day registration when early voting starts, when it stops in your state, your commonwealth.
All is a public service.
We also have the Kamala files, her in her own words, her radicalism, extremism.
It's been ignored the entire election by the state-run media mob and the walls files as well.
Again, a public service Hannity.com.
Um I thought this would be a good time to take a look at the polls, uh, but according to Kamala, there's only one poll that matters, and that's her internal numbers.
And based on how she's been acting, um, I'm thinking that her internal numbers are not particularly good.
And I think we got the first, you know, evidence of that when she was in hiding, and I think she would have preferred to stay in hiding and then started doing interviews, and none of them worked out particularly well, but this is what she's saying.
Uh, Madam Vice President, can you give us a sense of your internal polling at the campaign and how that is making or influencing your decisions on what to do over the next nine days?
So to be very frank with you, my internal polling is my instinct.
I let the campaign people deal with the poll the all that other stuff.
Um, and I am responding to what I'm seeing.
I mean, just two nights ago, we had 30,000 people show up.
I think it was actually more than 30,000 people.
With an incredible amount of enthusiasm.
If you see the people showing up last night, um, every event that we do, and the feeling is one of um energy and excitement.
Any time over the years, I would talk to a candidate that was way down in the polls, even if they're down fifteen.
Sean, I'm telling you the polls are off.
You should see the crowds.
The crowds are huge.
They're massive.
People showing up everywhere.
It's unbelievable.
And I hear it, I'm like, pay attention to the polls.
I mean, polling can be off.
It's not a perfect science in any way.
It's it's an art.
Um, and however, polls, especially the aggregate polls, and this is where I look to the real clear politics averages.
Uh, usually if if they start telling the same story or one story emerges and you have a couple of outliers, you kick out the outliers and you look at the average.
Uh, they usually end up being somewhat accurate, close to accurate.
I mean, they were they could be completely off.
Twenty twenty-two was supposed to be a red wave.
That that never materialized.
Uh, we do have, for example, uh uh uh some data out today that Trump is leading in all New York swing state districts, and this is for Congress, uh, districts that Biden even carried in twenty twenty.
That's important when it comes to the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
We have this poll, and it is a bit of an outlier, but you know, it's worth talking about.
A stunning survey out of New Hampshire indicating Donald Trump has a narrow for uh 50.2 to 49.8 lead there.
Uh I'm not exactly sure if if that's accurate.
Uh I wouldn't count on it.
Uh more Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina.
Uh, and early indications are is that the early voting has dramatically shifted in Republicans' favors.
In other words, the message has gone out that Republicans got to bank their vote.
On the other side, we've got Democratic turnout as of now compared to four years ago, is down significantly in all seven swing states, according to the data that I'm getting every single day.
Anyway, here to help us sort through all of this.
Mark Penn is with us, the chairman of the of the Harris poll himself, former advisor and and pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton.
Uh sir, how are you?
Welcome back.
I'm good.
Thank you.
Let me start with this.
Let's get your general overview of where you see the polling now.
Because I can look at the real clear politics average, 2020 versus 2024.
And around this time in 2020, Joe Biden was up by four right now in the battlegrounds, and and Trump is now up by one.
That's almost a net gain of five points.
The real clear average at this point in 2020, uh Joe Biden was up by 7.8 nationally.
And now Trump is up by 0.1.
That's a 7.9 percentage point swing.
On favorability ratings, Joe Biden had a 19.6 advantage.
Kamala has a 2.6 advantage.
That's a net increase for Trump of 17.
Uh that to me is significant because it's an aggreg aggregate of all the polling, unless polling methodology has changed so significantly since 2020, which I doubt.
Well, I mean, let me react to uh to both of those things.
First, uh comparing it to where Joe Biden was and so forth.
I don't know that that to me is the most is the most relevant comparison.
Uh obviously, uh, you know, obviously the polls were fundamentally different in both those.
I do think some of the polls now have more Republicans than Democrats.
They've tried to compensate for that in some way.
To me, the more relevant thing is I I think of uh I think of polls as x-rays, right?
And so you can only take snapshots in time and you look for things that might be growing.
And it's very clear to me that even in those polls that let's say CBS shows ha Harris by one, well, you have to dig to find that their last poll was Harris by three.
And almost out of the five last national polls, they all closed for Trump two to four points.
And and so consequently, well, I hate to use the word momentum in the area, but I'd certainly say there's been Trump creep forward that is really unmistakable since maybe October 10th to today.
And I and and I think the second point you raise is that when you go back to 2016, the voters hated both candidates.
Um Hillary and and both both Hillary and Trump had like 65% negatives.
That's actually not true today.
They actually like Trump as well, very close as you said, some polls even slightly better.
His favorable has been coming up 47, 48.
So that actually instead of hating both candidates, half the country likes one, the other half the country likes the other, uh, and there's only three or four percent here who hate them both.
So it's a very different situation uh than we've seen in the last couple of elections.
What do you glean from, and I'm sure you're seeing the same numbers I'm seeing from early voting numbers in the swing states based on party affiliation, because there had been a reluctance and resistance of Republicans to vote early and vote by mail.
Republicans have made a an an effort to overcome that, and I think it's it's paying off for them because that would then free up money to target lower propensity voters, right?
Well, and this is why I love to be on radio so I can explain this for a second.
So what I realize is that the that the Democrats obviously realize is the math of of voting votes that are in the bank versus votes that are supposed to show up on election day.
So if a hundred or a hundred voters and fifty of them vote by mail and it's evenly distributed, you have fifty votes in the bank, but of that second fifty, only forty-five percent show at the polls.
Their kid gets sick, the weather's bad, the car breaks down, right?
And so if they're evenly distributed, it doesn't matter.
It's like ninety-seven and a half to ninety-seven and a half.
But if they are mostly Republicans, then mostly Republicans get dinged on election day, and I think Republicans had been losing one to two points.
I think in the trends that you're seeing now, they indicate one Republican enthusiasm and two, neutralizing that advantage that the Democrats I think had snuck into the system that nobody really noticed because votes in the bank are votes you can that are 100% in the bank.
And so I think that's a good sign for Republican pickup here.
What do you make of uh when you when you keep seeing polls 60 in the 60s to up as high as 79% of Americans polled?
Say America's going in the wrong direction.
How does that how does that play out for the party in power, which is Kamala Harris now?
Well, usually the party in power, you know, if you have a 40% job approval and I think Biden's down to 39, usually those they're they're out.
And usually those undecided voters who can't decide on the candidate do know whether they think the direction of the country is right or wrong.
I think that the whole trick of the Harris campaign here has been to say I'm not the incumbent, that he's the incumbent.
And uh has she gotten away with that?
Well, you know, she's gotten away with it with some voters.
She's you know, anyone these polls, even after the Trump shift, I think, are still are still well within the margin of error.
But her whole campaign, you know, she doesn't mention the word Joe Biden, and you are not gonna see her and Joe Biden.
Oh no, there's a report out today.
The Biden people have been begging to get on the campaign trail and they're icing them out.
Yeah, they'll they'll be sending they'll be sending him to New York or something.
I mean, they will they'd probably send me out before they send him out.
Yes, that that is my operator.
Um, that's not happening.
Let's talk about the Democrats' choice for uh uh and and look, I can go back to Barry Goldwater.
Every Republican presidential candidate has been called a fascist or a Nazi all the way through Donald Trump.
However, it seems the decide the decision by the the Harris campaign has been to double triple quadruple down with intense anger that Donald Trump is a fascist, a Nazi, a racist, etc.
I uh to me it might be the worst closing argument I've ever heard in a campaign versus Donald Trump seems to be settling on the theme of they broke it, Donald Trump will fix it, and are you better off than you were four years ago?
And then, you know, y I don't think the Kamala Harris can answer that question successfully because I don't think there's much she can point to in terms of you know how where we're better off.
Well, I was intrigued yesterday that after all these years of using one slogan, it actually introduced I think it's he'll fix it, which was a very intriguing closing uh theme and slogan.
Uh I thought there are two I saw two closing ads really really well done.
Look, I think the Harris camp is looking at that favorable chart that that we just talked about, which is Trump is at record favorability.
I mean, you know, he survived assassination attempts.
He he's he's been going out there at McDonald's, he's been trying to show a more human side of him, and they are frustrated as heck over that.
So they're gonna throw the kitchen sink at him.
That's their closing uh winning strategy here, they believe is to basically knock down that favorable a couple of points because hers has been going down, throw the kitchen sink at him with everything uh they've got and and see if it works.
I mean, that's clearly what they're gonna do.
All right, quick break right back more with Mark Penn.
He's the f former advisor pollster to Bill and Hillary Clinton, chairman of the Harris poll.
We continue now with Mark Penn.
He is the chairman of the Harris poll, former advisor by the way, and pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton.
I saw an ex post of yours calling your opponent a fascist when slipping in the polls is irresponsible after two assassination attempts.
He can't complain about January sixth and then recreate it.
It's wrong for the campaign and wrong for the country.
I would add one other thing, and nobody really talked about it this campaign, but me as Kamala Harris did tweet out that bail fund uh in the summer of love uh four days after Minneapolis police precinct w was burned to the ground, and she did go on CBS and say that the writers in the summer of twenty twenty won't stop.
They shouldn't stop, and she wouldn't stop supporting them.
And we had five hundred and seventy-four riots, dozens of dead Americans, thousands of injured cops, and billions in property damage.
Uh that never became his all these people on the left that talk about insurrection.
Well, she's got her own she's never had to answer for her own positions on this, which to me it is part of the narrative I always put out that journalism in America is dead.
Well, you know, particularly as as a Jewish person and many Jews I know, we do not like it when any campaign uses the fascist word.
I mean, it's just something we think that should not be in their vocabulary.
Uh it is totally inappropriate.
It demeans what actually happened to six million Jews and and whether, you know, an attacker showed that they're occasionally Trump use it, please, no campaign.
Please don't use this word on, you know, because i i it refers to something uh so much more horrible than we can even conceive in.
Well, fascism and evil, or if you're comparing somebody to Stalin and Hitler and Mussolini, you are compar that you're saying they're evil.
And people that are deranged hear that they're evil.
Will they not can you draw a conclusion that it might inspire them to take out evil thinking they're doing good?
All right, now I got the hard question for you.
You know what it is.
How does this end?
You know, look, it's the question I'm your bet your best guess.
Look, I gave a speech recently.
Uh, which I said you're gonna learn absolutely nothing because I all know you're gonna ask me the question of who's gonna win.
And then I have a friend of mine that keeps saying, Well, it's you had to bet you look.
And I and I wrote an article about a week ago in the Wall Street Journal.
I said, look, things seem to be more favorable to Trump because ultimately on the big issues of the day, he is still maintaining the lead.
It's not outside the margin of era.
She still could come back.
She's doing very well with women.
You're gonna have to look at the how the gender gap comes out because this could be well well be the battle of the sex this year in terms of the outcome of the election.
But I do think that he's shown momentum, she's shown an increase in favor votes, he's held on to the major issues.
Uh you know, I'm not gonna say it's his to lose, but I think he's he's come a long way in the last in the last two weeks, and I think he's got the edge.
I think that's the way I would read it.
All right, he's the chairman of the Harris poll, former pollster for Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton.
Well, you you were the poster for both of them, right?
Yes, I was.
And uh anyway, Mark Penn, uh, we appreciate your analysis, and I'm glad for once I don't have to ask you hard questions, because I feel like when you're the Democratic pollster, I always have to ask you the harder question.
Uh we appreciate talking points.
I give you answers.
No, you do, you give honest answers.
We appreciate that about you.
Anyway, Mark Penn, thank you, sir.
Glad you're with us.
800-941-SHAWN is on number if you want to be a part of the program.
Music Now that we made some money for our sponsors, let's go back to making the liberals crazy.
The handman is back on the radio right now.
All right, 25 now to the top of the hour.
800 941 Sean, our number, if you want to be a part of the program.
We'll get to your calls in mere moments.
Well, here we are.
Uh one week from today will be election eve in America.
It's been four long years, and I hope you all have the sense of urgency that I have.
I voted yesterday in my free state of Florida.
And if you want information about registering in your state, some states have the same day voter even election day registration.
Uh, you can go to Hannity.com or and you'll find out when early voting starts and stops in your state while you're there as a public service.
The Kamala files her in her own words.
The walls files him in his own words, things that the mainstream state-run media mob have ignored the entire campaign.
Uh, but it's not surprising, is it?
Uh look, next this a week from today will be on the eve of this election.
No matter what happens, we know that the support of you, the American people, means so much right now to the people of Israel.
We saw what happened on Friday night.
Israel, rightly retaliating against the hundreds of ballistic missiles Iran fired at them.
Now we have seen a forefront war emerge in the holy land.
Uh we've also seen an alarming rise of radical anti-Semitism.
We've seen it in Washington, DC, even in the halls of Congress on college campuses, all across the country.
We've seen it worldwide.
It's pretty scary.
We have hundred you have tens and tens of thousands of Israelis.
They have been displaced from their homes.
Uh they have lost love loved ones, and they're in the fight for their very survival.
And that's where the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews comes in.
They've been around for forty years, and since October 7th, 23, they've been on the ground helping those people that are displaced, those people that need food and housing and medicines and supplies, because they're desperate.
And they're helping provide all of this for people in a their worst time of need.
And we hope you'll join us in standing with Israel, standing With the Jewish people.
It has never been more necessary than now.
Now you can support this great operation they have.
Go to support IFCJ, one word dot org, support IFCJ.org, or call 888-488-IFCJ.
That's 888-488-IFCJ today.
And I don't think you'll regret it.
Um did you see uh the view today at all?
Somebody sent me a clip of this, Linda.
Uh Mika Brzezinski.
And I have nothing against Liberal Joe and Mika.
Nothing at all.
Uh I used to know we used to know Liberal Joe when he was a conservative Joe.
And Liberal Joe is now, you know, hardcore radical left.
And which is fine.
It's a free country.
You can believe whatever you want.
But the left in this country is melting down.
Anyway, what a team.
Mika joined up with the ladies of that hard-hitting news show, The View.
And I thought it was interesting when Rogan started out his interview with Donald Trump that went on for three long hours.
I still haven't finished it.
But I did listen to quite a bit of it.
He's he brought up the fact, oh, the ladies of the view and Oprah Winfried, they used to love you.
Now they hate you.
Now you're a Nazi.
Now you're now you're a fascist.
Now you're a racist.
All of these things.
Anyway, Mika on the view, you know, is tearing up.
I mean, this this is how panicked the left is in this country.
Listen.
This is the descent into fascism if we so choose.
Normalizing January 6th, it's a day of love.
It's a day of love.
I'll say it again and again and again.
Normalizing, enemy from within.
I'll say it again and again.
I'll say it again and again until you get tired of it, until it's not so funny anymore, or you think he doesn't mean it until you realize he does mean it and it's too late.
Saying these strict abortion bans are a beautiful thing.
Are you kidding me?
We gotta wake up, and here's the good news, because I come with such dire warnings, and I mean them from the bottom of my heart as a daughter of refugees who came here escaping war, came here for America to be a part of a democracy, to be a part of building something beautiful where they could be free.
I'm telling you, the good news is that I believe women will be the beacon in this election.
Wow.
By the way, it's just a flat out lie about Trump and strict abortion bans, abortions, you know, the issue of abortions being decided by the states.
State of Ohio, Red State, fairly liberal decision.
I voted on an abortion ban amendment in in Florida yesterday when I went to the polls in my free state of Florida.
And I'm just telling you, it's just outright lying.
And but you know, what do you say about 574 riots?
And, you know, can you imagine if Donald Trump, we had dozens of dead Americans, we had billions in property damage, we had cops pelted with bricks, rocks, bottles, Molotov cocktails.
And imagine Donald Trump said they're not gonna stop and they shouldn't stop, and I'm not gonna stop supporting them.
Oh.
Sounds like a the summer of love went awry.
Uh let us say hi to our busy phones, Tina in the United Socialist Utopia of California.
Tina, how are you?
Glad you called.
Well, thank you, Sean.
And you uh uh yes, you took the words right out of my mouth.
I was gonna say I'm in the horrible state governed by Governor Newska, but um we'll leave it at that.
Uh thank you for all that you do.
You're the reason I go to bed so late every night because I cannot go to bed until I've seen your show.
Um huge fan.
Um, I'll make it quick.
Thank you.
I have you think do you think Governor Newsom, I've I've often wondered this.
I know he has a really radical legislature, but over time, I've just thought there's no way he believes all this, but he does.
I've just come to the conclusion he really believes in these positions that he takes.
And it's it's kind of shocking.
You know, he looks like a normal guy.
Yeah, he can be personable in in real life, but I guess he's a true believer.
I guess that's the only thing I can conc conclude.
Correct.
Along with the rest of his uh demonic uh administration, in my opinion.
And I truly believe they I wouldn't call them demonic.
I let's say very misguided and radical.
But go ahead.
Yes, yes, yes.
Okay, well, leave it at that.
Thank you, Sean.
Um, I do have a question.
I know you just addressed it with another caller that everybody's asking you what you think of the outcome.
Of course, nobody had the glass ball.
However, based on the overwhelming polling that uh President Trump is showing, uh, do you think that this uh might be a win by the popular vote?
I you know, I uh uh to me that's just not important.
We have an electoral system.
Um however, I do think the bigger if Donald Trump can win this election and win with a big mandate, I think it would be very reassuring for the country, and it would be a lot better result.
And I think that the country uh a mandate win election would be ideal.
If you ever won the popular vote, that would be you know, fantastic.
You know, however, it's not where my focus is.
My focus is on expressing to the uh best of my ability, and it will be my focus all week, the urgency that every American needs to have if you don't want these extreme radical policies to be implemented.
Because everything Kamala said that we have in the Kamala Files on Hannity.com and on Hannity Media, social media.
It's it's what she really believes.
Right.
And that part is the scary part to me.
And the fact that nobody's challenged her on it and she's gotten a pass the whole time is it is it's not even malpractice.
It is it is beyond malpractice.
It is just outright propaganda.
And it's and they and journalism's dead.
I said it in 07 and 08.
I didn't know how right I'd be, but it really is.
I'm gonna move along.
Uh Tina in California, listen, God bless you though.
Hang in there.
I don't know why you're still out there.
There are a lot of free states you can move to, you know.
Um anyway, let's get back to our phones.
Uh let's say hi to Don in Iowa.
Hey Don, how are you?
Glad you called.
Hi, Sean.
Thank you for taking my call.
I'm a uh truck driver.
I'm out here heading up to a nuclear power plant right now as we speak.
Oh wow.
And a be careful.
I hope there's no radiation up there.
By the way, thanks to all our truckers, because every time you go to a store and the shelves are packed, you can thank a trucker in part for that being for that happening.
You can thank farmers, you can thank ranchers.
All you guys, you know, keep the economy uh going the way it's going.
Although it could be better, things could be cheaper, and you guys could be making more money.
Trucking has experienced a recession, the longest it's ever been.
Yes, for sure.
And uh thank you, Sean, because we all listen to you going down the road.
We're we're cat you've got a captive audience while we're out here.
And uh I wear my um green mega hat out in public and and people comment to me all day long, and it's it's every truck driver is let's let's pray for this next election, and I can't agree with them more.
Um, truck drivers are an underperforming voting block.
And that's what I'm calling for is to remind truck drivers that yeah, we might win this election.
It might happen with or without us.
But with us, it's it's it's almost a sure thing.
There's millions of truck drivers that won't make it home for the fifth to make the vote.
So get in and bank your votes when you get home on your next time off.
Get home, bank your vote, get it out there, and this way here you're sure your vote counts.
And and uh I think I think that's great advice, and I would predict within a year uh that Donald Trump will have the price of diesel and gasoline down significantly.
And that'll help your business, and that'll help all of us.
That'll lower prices at every store we go to.
So I I think it's in everybody's best interest.
Yeah, I think for every trucker, I'll gonna add to the group.
If you're a hunter, if you believe in the second amendment, uh gun owner, if uh if you're if you're a Christian and and you don't like, you know, states like California and Minnesota that would have gender affirming care for minors without parental consent, I would consider voting very seriously.
Or that you know, minors can get an abortion, you know, i even with no restrictions at all in many states like California, uh like Minnesota, even in months seven, eight, and nine.
Uh to ignore those issues to me is malpractice.
And there's a report that, you know, thirty million Christians aren't going to be voting in this election, and ten million gun owners and hunters are not going to be voting in this election.
That's insane.
They're voting against their own freedoms and their own best interest, in my opinion.
But anyway, sorry, don't forget the military.
Well, they're voting for Trump in big numbers.
There was a poll out last week.
Absolutely.
And and guys, if if you're not sure where you're going to be, my son just got some uh orders to Italy.
He's in the Navy, by the way.
And he got orders to Italy last minute.
So get your butt down and bank your vote then.
You know, before you leave.
Good for you.
And so he's going to do that.
And I've got a grandson in.
I've got a niece who, by the way, just got a commission in the army.
She's going to be a doctor.
And you know, I I can't encourage them enough.
You know, listen to Sean and get your votes in and get them in early.
And if we happen to push Trump to a mandate to where uh, you know, you know, like he says, make it too big to rig.
Don't take anything for granted in this election.
I appreciate your call, my friend, and I appreciate what you do every day.
God bless you.
Stay safe on the road.
It's not an easy job uh at all.
And uh we're grateful uh for all you guys out there.
We really are.
800, 941 Sean is our number if you want to be a part of the program.
Uh Joe Lex is in Florida, my free st my home state, my free state of Florida.
What's going on?
Uh Joe Lex, and uh glad you called, sir.
Yes, how are you doing?
It's a great opportunity to speak to you, son handy.
What a wonderful day it is.
Thank you very much for just even taking my call.
Well, thank you.
What's going on?
Yes.
Well, I'm uh I'm black Asian American out of Grand State of Florida, and it's uh a lot of things that I know people were saying because you know, as me learning about the Democrat operation, just learning about just about what election is,
then you begin to understand about who runs the media, and there's just been a lot of things about that was not right about Trump, but that would just, you know, they just wanted to say just uh put a lot of dirt on them, but that's we we dealt with that right there.
But we understand what he's doing and what he's about to do with America, especially with uh the the youth vote that between eighteen and twenty-five, it's a lot of us that we are gonna vote for him, but it's just uh they just seem to more information about what's going on and what Trump gonna be doing in office outside of policy but legislators.
Well, I gotta tell you right now, there they everybody, and we talk a lot about demographics, and we have spoken about it a lot this election season.
Everybody wants lower prices at the supermarket.
You want lower prices when you gas up your car, your truck, whatever you're whatever you're driving.
Everybody believes in secure borders.
Everybody believes in law and order, and they want their town safe and secure so they can all pursue happiness.
Everyone would like a better educational system.
And I think America, you know, understands that Kamala and Joe have made the world less safe and secure.
And there's a story today.
China is in an outright panic over the idea of a second Trump term.
Uh they I don't think China or Russia or Iran fear Kamala Harris.
They fear Donald Trump.
Iranian assassination squads are here to kill Donald Trump.
It is scary.
These are very, very we need strength.
We don't need a Mamala.
We need strength.
And that will keep the world a better or peaceful place, because peace through strength actually works.
Uh but anyway, my friend, God bless you, and we appreciate you uh you calling in.
Bank in your vote, great idea.
All right, that's gonna wrap things up for today.
We do have some Senate candidates.
It looks like Eric Cobbdy in Wisconsin has a chance of taking uh a win over Tammy Baldwin.
Uh we'll check in with him.
Tim Sheehe also will join us.
Sam Brown, Hulk Hogan, he was at the rally of Madison Square Garden.
He'll join us.
Tommy Larren, Clay Travis, John Solomon, Joe Kancha, Ryan Sprevus, Satan D VR, Hannity, 9 Eastern tonight on Fox, as we are just nine days till official election day.
Although, if there's voting in America, it's election day.
Uh see you tonight back here tomorrow.
Thank you for making this show possible.
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