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Oct. 29, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
31:25
Mark Penn - October 28th, Hour 3
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This is an iHeart podcast.
Coming up next, our final news roundup and information overload hour.
All right, news roundup, information overload hour.
Here's our toll-free number this Monday, one week from today.
It will be Election Day in America, Election Eve, actually.
And every day is Election Day because, well, it just is if there's voting going on anywhere in the country.
But one week from today, Election Eve in America.
Our number is 800-941.
Sean, if you want to be a part of the program, now is a public service on Hannity.com.
If you're interested in your state, regardless of what party you're with, and you want to vote, we have information on how to register.
Some states have same-day registration, when early voting starts, when it stops in your state, your Commonwealth, all is a public service.
We also have the Kamala files, her in her own words, her radicalism, extremism.
It's been ignored the entire election by the state-run media mob and the Walls files as well.
Again, a public service, Hannity.com.
I thought this would be a good time to take a look at the polls, but according to Kamala, there's only one poll that matters, and that's her internal numbers.
And based on how she's been acting, I'm thinking that her internal numbers are not particularly good.
And I think we got the first evidence of that when she was in hiding.
And I think she would have preferred to stay in hiding and then started doing interviews.
And none of them worked out particularly well.
But this is what she's saying.
Madam Vice President, can you give us a sense of your internal polling at the campaign and how that is making or influencing your decisions on what to do over the next nine days?
So to be very frank with you, my internal polling is my instinct.
I let the campaign people deal with the poll, all that other stuff.
And I am responding to what I'm seeing.
I mean, just two nights ago, we had 30,000 people show up.
I think it was actually more than 30,000 people with an incredible amount of enthusiasm.
If you see the people showing up last night, every event that we do, and the feeling is one of energy and excitement.
Anytime over the years, I would talk to a candidate that was way down in the polls, even if they're down 15.
Sean, I'm telling you, the polls are off.
You should see the crowds.
The crowds are huge.
They're massive.
People showing up everywhere.
It's unbelievable.
And I hear it.
I'm like, pay attention to the polls.
I mean, polling can be off.
It's not a perfect science in any way.
It's an art.
And however, polls, especially the aggregate polls, and this is where I look to the real clear politics averages.
Usually, if they start telling the same story or one story emerges and you have a couple of outliers, you kick out the outliers and you look at the average.
They usually end up being somewhat accurate, close to accurate.
I mean, they could be completely off.
2022 was supposed to be a red wave.
That never materialized.
We do have, for example, some data out today that Trump is leading in all New York swing state districts.
And this is for Congress, districts that Biden even carried in 2020.
That's important when it comes to the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
We have this poll, and it is a bit of an outlier, but it's worth talking about.
A stunning survey out of New Hampshire indicating Donald Trump has a narrow 50.2 to 49.8 lead there.
I'm not exactly sure if that's accurate.
I wouldn't count on it.
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina.
And early indications are that the early voting has dramatically shifted in Republicans' favors.
In other words, the message has gone out that Republicans got to bank their vote.
On the other side, we've got Democratic turnout as of now compared to four years ago is down significantly in all seven swing states, according to the data that I'm getting every single day.
Anyway, here to help us sort through all of this, Mark Penn is with us, the chairman of the Harris poll himself, former advisor and pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton.
Sir, how are you?
Welcome back.
I'm good.
Thank you.
Let me start with this.
Let's get your general overview of where you see the polling now, because I can look at the real clear politics average 2020 versus 2024.
And around this time in 2020, Joe Biden was up by four right now in the battlegrounds, and Trump is now up by one.
That's almost a net gain of five points.
The real clear average at this point in 2020, Joe Biden was up by 7.8 nationally, and now Trump is up by 0.1.
That's a 7.9 percentage point swing.
On favorability ratings, Joe Biden had a 19.6 advantage.
Kamal has a 2.6 advantage.
That's a net increase for Trump of 17.
That to me is significant because it's an aggregate of all the polling, unless polling methodology has changed so significantly since 2020, which I doubt.
Well, I mean, let me react to both of those things.
First, comparing it to where Joe Biden was and so forth, I don't know that that to me is the most relevant comparison.
Obviously, you know, obviously the polls were fundamentally different in both those.
I do think some of the polls now have more Republicans than Democrats.
They've tried to compensate for that in some way.
To me, the more relevant thing is I think of polls as x-rays, right?
And so you can only take snapshots in time and you look for things that might be growing.
And it's very clear to me that even in those polls that let's say CBS shows Harris by one, well, you have to dig to find that their last poll was Harris by three.
And almost out of the five last national polls, they all closed for Trump two to four points.
And so consequently, well, I hate to use the word momentum in the area, but I'd certainly say there's been Trump creep forward that is really unmistakable since maybe October 10th to today.
And I think the second point you raise is that when you go back to 2016, the voters hated both candidates.
And both Hillary and Trump had like 65% negatives.
That's actually not true today.
They actually like Trump as well, very close, as you said.
Some polls even slightly better.
His favorable has been coming up 47, 48, so that actually, instead of hating both candidates, half the country likes one, the other half the country likes the other.
And there's only 3 or 4% here who hate them both.
So it's a very different situation than we've seen in the last couple of elections.
What do you glean from, and I'm sure you're seeing the same numbers I'm seeing, from early voting numbers in the swing states based on party affiliation, because there had been a reluctance and resistance of Republicans to vote early and vote by mail.
Republicans have made an effort to overcome that.
And I think it's paying off for them because that would then free up money to target lower propensity voters, right?
Well, and this is why I love to be on radio so I can explain this for a second.
So what I realize is that the Democrats obviously realize is the math of votes that are in the bank versus votes that are supposed to show up on Election Day.
So if there are 100 voters and 50 of them vote by mail and it's evenly distributed, you have 50 votes in the bank.
But of that second 50, only 45% show at the polls.
Their kid gets sick.
The weather's bad.
The car breaks down, right?
And so if they're evenly distributed, it doesn't matter.
It's like 97.5 to 97 now.
But if they are mostly Republicans, then mostly Republicans get dinged on election day.
And I think Republicans had been losing one to two points.
I think in the trends that you're seeing now, they indicate, one, Republican enthusiasm, and two, neutralizing that advantage that the Democrats, I think, had snuck into the system that nobody really noticed because votes in the bank are votes that are 100% in the bank.
And so I think that's a good sign for Republican pickup here.
What do you make of when you keep seeing polls, 60 in the 60s up as high as 79% of Americans polled say America's going in the wrong direction?
How does that play out for the party in power, which is Kamala Harris now?
Well, usually the party in power, you know, if you have a 40% job approval and I think Biden's down to 39, usually they're out.
And usually those undecided voters who can't decide on the candidate do know whether they think the direction of the country is right or wrong.
I think that the whole trick of the Harris campaign here has been to say I'm not the incumbent, that he's the incumbent.
And has she gotten away with that?
Well, you know, she's gotten away with it with some voters.
You know, anyone, these polls, even after the Trump shift, I think, are still well within the margin of error.
But her whole campaign, you know, she doesn't mention the word Joe Biden, and you are not going to see her.
Joe Biden.
Oh, no, there's a report out today.
The Biden people have been begging to get on the campaign trail, and they're icing him out.
Yeah, they'll be sending him to New York.
They'd probably send me out before they send him out.
Yes, that is not happening.
No, that's not happening.
Let's talk about the Democrats' choice for, and look, I can go back to Barry Goldwater.
Every Republican presidential candidate has been called a fascist or a Nazi all the way through Donald Trump.
However, it seems the decision by the Harris campaign has been to double, triple, quadruple down with intense anger that Donald Trump is a fascist, a Nazi, a racist, et cetera.
To me, it might be the worst closing argument I've ever heard in a campaign versus Donald Trump.
Seems to be settling on the theme of they broke it, Donald Trump will fix it, and are you better off than you were four years ago?
And then, you know, I don't think that Kamala Harris can answer that question successfully because I don't think there's much she can point to in terms of, you know, where we're better off.
Well, I was intrigued yesterday that after all these years of using one slogan, they actually introduced, I think it's He'll Fix It, which was a very intriguing closing theme and slogan.
I thought I saw two closing ads, really, really well done.
Look, I think the Harris camp is looking at that favorable chart that we just talked about, which is Trump is at record favorability.
I mean, you know, he survived assassination attempts.
He's been going out there at McDonald's.
He's been trying to show a more human side of him.
And they are frustrated as heck over that.
So they're going to throw the kitchen sink at him.
Their closing winning strategy here, they believe, is to basically knock down that favorable a couple of points because hers has been going down, throw the kitchen sink at him with everything they've got and see if it works.
I mean, that's clearly what they're going to do.
All right, quick break right back more with Mark Penn.
He's the former advisor, pollster to Bill and Hillary Clinton, chairman of the Harris Poll.
We continue now with Mark Penn.
He is the chairman of the Harris Poll, former advisor, by the way, and pollster for Bill and Hillary Clinton.
I saw an ex-post of yours calling your opponent a fascist when slipping in the polls is irresponsible after two assassination attempts.
You can't complain about January 6th and then recreate it.
It's wrong for the campaign and wrong for the country.
I would add one other thing, and nobody really talked about it this campaign but me, as Kamala Harris did tweet out that bail fund in the summer of love, four days after Minneapolis police precinct was burned to the ground.
And she did go on CBS and say that the rioters in the summer of 2020 won't stop.
They shouldn't stop, and she wouldn't stop supporting them.
And we had 574 riots, dozens of dead Americans, thousands of injured cops, and billions in property damage.
That never became all these people on the left that talk about insurrection.
Well, she's got her own, she's never had to answer for her own positions on this, which to me is part of the narrative I always put out that journalism in America is dead.
Well, you know, particularly as a Jewish person and many Jews I know, we do not like it when any campaign uses the fascist word.
I mean, it's just something we think that should not be in their vocabulary.
It is totally inappropriate.
It demeans what actually happened to 6 million Jews and whether, you know, and then Tacker showed that there occasionally Trump used it, please, no campaign.
Please don't use this word, you know, because it refers to something so much more horrible than we can even conceive.
Well, fascism and evil, or if you're comparing somebody to Stalin and Hitler and Mussolini, you're saying they're evil.
And people that are deranged hear that they're evil.
Will they not, can you draw a conclusion that it might inspire them to take out evil thinking they're doing good?
All right, now I got the hard question for you.
You know what it is.
How does this end?
You know, look, it's the question I...
Your best guess.
Look, I gave a speech recently in which I said, you're going to learn absolutely nothing because I all know you're going to ask me the question of who's going to win.
And then I have a friend of mine who keeps saying, well, if you had to bet to...
Look, and I wrote an article about a week ago in the Wall Street Journal.
I said, look, things seem to be more favorable to Trump because ultimately, on the big issues of the day, he is still maintaining the lead.
It's not outside the margin of era.
She still could come back.
She's doing very well with women.
You're going to have to look at how the gender gap comes out because this could be, well, well be the battle of the sexes here in terms of the outcome of the election.
But I do think that he's shown momentum.
He's shown an increase in favorable.
He's held on to the major issues.
You know, I'm not going to say it's his to lose, but I think he's come a long way in the last two weeks, and I think he's got the edge.
I think that's the way I would read it.
All right.
He's the chairman of the Harris Poll, former pollster for Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton.
Well, you were the pollster for both of them, right?
Yes, I was.
And anyway, Mark Penn, we appreciate your analysis, and I'm glad for once I don't have to ask you hard questions because I feel like when you're the Democratic pollster, I always have to ask you the harder question.
We appreciate it.
Talking points.
I give you answers.
No, you do.
You give honest answers.
And we appreciate that about you.
Anyway, Mark Penn, thank you, sir.
Glad you're with us.
800-941-SHAWN is our number if you want to be a part of the program.
Now that we made some money for our sponsors, let's go back to making the liberals crazy.
The handman is back on the radio right now.
All right, 25 now to the top of the hour, 800-941-Sean.
Our number, if you want to be a part of the program, we'll get to your calls in mere moments.
Well, here we are.
One week from today will be Election Eve in America.
It's been four long years, and I hope you all have the sense of urgency that I have.
I voted yesterday in my free state of Florida.
And if you want information about registering in your state, some states have same-day voter, even election day registration.
You can go to Hannity.com and you'll find out when early voting starts and stops in your state while you're there as a public service.
The Kamala files her in her own words.
The walls files him in his own words, things that the mainstream state-run media mob have ignored the entire campaign.
But it's not surprising, is it?
Look, this a week from today will be on the eve of this election.
No matter what happens, we know that the support of you, the American people, means so much right now to the people of Israel.
We saw what happened on Friday night.
Israel, rightly, retaliating against the hundreds of ballistic missiles Iran fired at them.
Now, we have seen a forefront war emerge in the Holy Land.
We've also seen an alarming rise of radical anti-Semitism.
We've seen it in Washington, D.C., even in the halls of Congress, on college campuses, all across the country.
We've seen it worldwide.
It's pretty scary.
You have tens of tens of thousands of Israelis.
They have been displaced from their homes.
They have lost loved ones, and they are in the fight for their very survival.
And that's where the International Fellowship of Christians and Jews comes in.
They've been around for 40 years, and since October 7th, 23, they've been on the ground helping those people that are displaced, those people that need food and housing and medicines and supplies because they're desperate.
And they're helping provide all of this for people in their worst time of need.
And we hope you'll join us in standing with Israel, standing with the Jewish people.
It has never been more necessary than now.
Now you can support this great operation that they have.
Go to supportifcj1word.org, supportifcj.org, or call 888-488-IFCJ.
That's 888-488-IFCJ today.
And I don't think you'll regret it.
Did you see The View today at all?
Somebody sent me a clip of this, Linda.
Mika Brzezinski.
And I have nothing against Liberal Joe and Mika, nothing at all.
We used to know Liberal Joe when he was a conservative Joe.
And Liberal Joe is now, you know, hardcore, radical left, which is fine.
It's a free country.
You can believe whatever you want.
But the left in this country is melting down.
Anyway, what a team.
Mika joined up with the ladies of that hard-hitting news show, The View.
And I thought it was interesting when Rogan started out his interview with Donald Trump that went on for three long hours.
I still haven't finished it, but I did listen to quite a bit of it.
He brought up the fact, oh, the ladies of The View and Oprah Winfrey, they used to love you.
Now they hate you.
Now you're a Nazi.
Now you're a fascist.
Now you're a racist.
All of these things.
Anyway, Mika on The View, you know, is tearing up.
I mean, this is how panicked the left is in this country.
Listen.
This is the descent into fascism, if we so choose.
Normalizing January 6th.
It's a day of love.
It's a day of love.
I'll say it again and again and again.
Normalizing enemy from within.
I'll say it again and again.
I'll say it again and again until you get tired of it, until it's not so funny anymore, or you think he doesn't mean it until you realize he does mean it and it's too late.
Saying these strict abortion bans are a beautiful thing.
Are you kidding me?
We got to wake up.
And here's the good news because I come with such dire warnings and I mean them from the bottom of my heart as a daughter of refugees who came here escaping war came here for America to be a part of a democracy to be a part of building something beautiful where they could be free.
I'm telling you, the good news is that I believe women will be the beacon in this election.
Wow.
By the way, it's just a flat-out lie about Trump and strict abortion bans.
Abortions, you know, the issue of abortions being decided by the states.
State of Ohio, Red State, fairly liberal decision.
I voted on an abortion ban amendment in Florida yesterday when I went to the polls in my free state of Florida.
And I'm just telling you, it's just outright lying.
And, but, you know, what do you say about 574 riots?
And, you know, can you imagine if Donald Trump, we had dozens of dead Americans, we had billions in property damage.
We had cops pelted with bricks, rocks, bottles, Molotov cocktails.
And imagine Donald Trump said they're not going to stop and they shouldn't stop.
And I'm not going to stop supporting them.
Oh, sounds like the summer of love went awry.
Let us say hi to our busy phones.
Tina in the United Socialist Utopia of California.
Tina, how are you?
Glad you called.
So thank you, Sean.
And you, yes, you took the words right out of my mouth.
I was going to say I'm in the horrible state governed by Governor Nuska, but we'll leave it at that.
Thank you for all that you do.
You're the reason I go to bed so late every night because I cannot go to bed until I've seen your show.
Huge fan.
I'll make it quick.
Thank you.
Do you think Governor Newsom, I've often wondered this.
I know he has a really radical legislature, but over time, I've just thought, there's no way he believes all this, but he does.
I've just come to the conclusion he really believes in these positions that he takes.
And it's kind of shocking.
You know, he looks like a normal guy.
He can be personable in real life, but I guess he's a true believer.
That's the only thing I can conclude.
Correct.
Along with the rest of his demonic administration, in my opinion.
I truly believe they.
I wouldn't call them demonic.
I'd say very misguided and radical.
But go ahead.
Yes, yes.
Okay.
We'll leave it at that.
Thank you, Sean.
I do have a question.
I know you just addressed it with another caller that everybody's asking you what you think of the outcome.
Of course, nobody had the glass ball.
However, based on the overwhelming polling that President Trump is showing, do you think that this might be a win by the popular vote?
You know, to me, that's just not important.
We have an electoral system.
However, I do think the bigger, if Donald Trump could win this election and win with a big mandate, I think it would be very reassuring for the country, and it would be a lot better result.
And I think that the country, a mandate-win election would be ideal.
If he ever won the popular vote, that would be, you know, fantastic.
You know, however, it's not where my focus is.
My focus is on expressing to the best of my ability, and it will be my focus all week, the urgency that every American needs to have if you don't want these extreme, radical policies to be implemented.
Because everything Kamala said that we have in the Kamala files on Hannity.com and on Hannity Media, social media, it's what she really believes.
And that part is the scary part to me.
And the fact that nobody's challenged her on it and she's gotten a pass the whole time is not even malpractice.
It is beyond malpractice.
It is just outright propaganda.
And journalism's dead.
I said it in 07 and 08.
I didn't know how right I'd be, but it really is.
I'm going to move along.
Tina in California, listen.
God bless you, though.
Hang in there.
I don't know why you're still out there.
There are a lot of free states you can move to, you know.
Anyway, let's get back to our phones.
Let's say hi to Don in Iowa.
Hey, Don, how are you?
Glad you called.
Hi, Sean.
Thank you for taking my call.
I'm a truck driver.
I'm out here heading up to a nuclear power plant right now as we speak.
Oh, wow.
Be careful.
I hope there's no radiation up there.
By the way, thanks to all our truckers because every time you go to a store and the shelves are packed, you can thank a trucker in part for that happening.
You can thank farmers.
You can thank ranchers.
All you guys keep the economy going the way it's going.
Although it could be better, things could be cheaper and you guys could be making more money.
Trucking has experienced a recession, the longest it's ever been.
Yes, for sure.
And thank you, Sean, because we all listen to you going down the road.
You've got a captive audience while we're out here.
And I wear my green mega hat out in public, and people comment to me all day long.
And it's every truck driver is, let's pray for this next election, and I can't agree with them more.
Well, go ahead, sir.
You know, truck drivers are an underperforming voting block.
And that's what I'm calling for, is to remind truck drivers that, yeah, we might win this election.
It might happen with or without us.
But with us, it's almost a sure thing.
There's millions of truck drivers that won't make it home for the fifth to make the vote.
So get in and bank your votes when you get home on your next time off.
Get home, bank your vote, get it out there.
And this way here, you're sure your vote counts.
I think that's great advice.
And I would predict within a year that Donald Trump will have the price of diesel and gasoline down significantly.
And that'll help your business.
And that'll help all of us.
That'll lower prices at every store we go to.
So I think it's in everybody's best interest.
Yeah, I think for every trucker, I'm going to add to the group.
If you're a hunter, if you believe in the Second Amendment, a gun owner, if you're a Christian and you don't like states like California and Minnesota that would have gender-affirming care for minors without parental consent,
I would consider voting very seriously or that minors can get an abortion even with no restrictions at all in many states like California, like Minnesota, even in months seven, eight, and nine.
To ignore those issues to me is malpractice.
And there was a report that 30 million Christians aren't going to be voting in this election and 10 million gun owners and hunters are not going to be voting in this election.
That's insane.
They're voting against their own freedoms and their own best interest, in my opinion.
But anyway.
Sorry, don't forget the military.
Well, they're voting for Trump in big numbers.
There was a poll out last week.
Absolutely.
And guys, if you're not sure where you're going to be, my son just got some orders to Italy.
He's in the Navy, by the way, and he got on to Italy last minute.
So get your butt down and bank your vote then.
You know, before you leave, and so he's going to do that.
And I've got a grandson in.
I've got a niece who, by the way, just got a commission in the Army.
She's going to be a doctor.
And, you know, I can't encourage them enough.
You know, listen to Sean and get your votes in and get them in early.
And if we happen to push Trump to a mandate to where, you know, like he says, make it too big to rig.
Don't take anything for granted in this election.
I appreciate you calling my friend, and I appreciate what you do every day.
God bless you.
Stay safe on the road.
It's not an easy job at all.
And we're grateful for all you guys out there.
We really are.
800-941-Sean is a number if you want to be a part of the program.
Joe Lex is in Florida, my home state, my free state of Florida.
What's going on, Joe Lex?
And glad you called, sir.
Yes, how you doing?
It's a great opportunity to speak to you, Sean Handy.
What a wonderful day it is.
Thank you very much for just even taking my call.
Thank you.
What's going on?
Yes.
Well, I'm a black Asian American out of Great State of Florida.
And it's a lot of things that I know people were saying, because, you know, as me learning about the Democrat operation, just learning about just about what election is, then you begin to understand about who runs the media.
And then there's been a lot of things about that was not right about Trump, but that was just, you know, it just wanted to say just put a lot of dirt on them.
But that's, we're done with that right there.
But we understand what he's doing and what he's about to do with America, especially with the youth vote.
That between 18 and 25, it's a lot of us that we are going to vote for him.
But it's just, there's even more information about what's going on and what Trump is going to be doing in office outside of policy, but legislators.
Well, I got to tell you right now, everybody, and we talk a lot about demographics and we have spoken about it a lot this election season.
Everybody wants lower prices at the supermarket.
You want lower prices when you gas up your car, your truck, whatever you're driving.
Everybody believes in secure borders.
Everybody believes in law and order, and they want their town safe and secure so they can all pursue happiness.
Everyone would like a better educational system.
And I think America, you know, understands that Kamala and Joe have made the world less safe and secure.
And there's a story today.
China is in an outright panic over the idea of a second Trump term.
I don't think China or Russia or Iran fear Kamala Harris.
They fear Donald Trump.
Iranian assassination squads are here to kill Donald Trump.
It is scary.
These are very, very, we need strength.
We don't need a mamala.
We need strength.
And that will keep the world a better, more peaceful place because peace through strength actually works.
But anyway, my friend, God bless you.
And we appreciate you calling in.
Thanking your vote.
Great idea.
All right, that's going to wrap things up for today.
We do have some Senate candidates.
It looks like Eric Cobdy in Wisconsin has a chance of taking a win over Tammy Baldwin.
We'll check in with him.
Tim Sheehee also will join us.
Sam Brown, Hulk Hogan.
He was at the rally at Madison Square Garden.
He'll join us.
Tommy Laron, Clay Travis, John Solomon, Joe Concha, Reince Priebus, Satan DVR, Hannity, 9 Eastern tonight on Fox as we are just nine days till official election day.
Although, if there's voting in America, it's Election Day.
See you tonight back here tomorrow.
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