Sean looks at the top-rated polls in the country and reviews a few paths in which President Trump can win. The New York Times is saying that Trump and Harris are tied. Sean looks at the process of polling and the power of the media mob; is that the reason polls are so strange for President Trump?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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| This is an iHeart Podcast. | |
| All right. | |
| Thank you, Scott Chan. | |
| Thanks to all of you for being with us. | |
| Write down our toll-free telephone number if you want to be a part of the program. | |
| It's 800-941 Sean if you want to be a part of the program. | |
| And we've got early voting now beginning to unfold all around the country. | |
| Early voting surging in the Commonwealth of Virginia. | |
| Early voting has begun in Minnesota, South Dakota. | |
| And you know, one of the early signs is apparently Democrats are losing their mail and voting advantage over the GOP in some swing states. | |
| I want people to be very careful of any data, any polling, and I'm going to give you some polling today, even though I'm giving it to you. | |
| I'm giving you to you with a warning to not allow the media corrupt state-run media mob and these organizations that do polling, many of them, you know, if they want to get better numbers for Kamala Harris, they're going to go with registered voters versus what you know legitimate pollsters all agree would be more accurate, which is likely voters. | |
| I mean, there are tricks to the trade to deflate the turnout in terms of voting. | |
| With that said, there are good polls out for President Trump today. | |
| However, I I I don't want it impacting people in any way, shape, manner, or form because if they create or can create an image or an impression or a feeling among people that uh this is a lost cause, then you you you cannot let it in any way emotionally or any other way impact you know the need for you to vote. | |
| If if this if this anecdotal information early on is correct, maybe I didn't waste my breath for four years, Linda, and we've gone over this many times. | |
| Remember, remember I kind of shocked you when I had callers call in during COVID, and after I talked about monoclonal antibodies, monoclonal antibodies, ask your doctor about monoclonal antibodies. | |
| I didn't tell people what to do. | |
| I said, ask about them. | |
| Because I had known people that had gotten COVID and got treated with monoclonal antibodies, and all of them did extraordinarily well, and they seemed amazingly effective. | |
| And I said, Look, I'm not a doctor. | |
| I'm not going to tell you what to do with the shot. | |
| I'm not, I don't know anything about your medical history. | |
| I don't know about pre-existing conditions or comorbidities. | |
| Uh, you know, I don't know any of those issues. | |
| I am not qualified to give out medical advice, but I said, you know, but you might want to ask your doctor if you do get COVID about monoclonal antibodies. | |
| Just ask. | |
| And then do your own research. | |
| I always added that and and then make your own decision because I had I knew so many people that told me they had success with it. | |
| And then after months and months and months and months of saying it, you know, Linda gets gets on my case that I'm saying it too much. | |
| Do you remember that, Linda? | |
| I do. | |
| And then I said, All right, let's do a test. | |
| And I said we went to our phone lines and I went there randomly and I said to people, all right. | |
| If if you get a positive, if you get a positive test back on the on COVID, what is Sean's recommendation? | |
| What was my recommendation to people to ask their doctor? | |
| And when we went through all the lines of people, how many people got right the answer in terms of what my advice had been for months and months? | |
| One and a half. | |
| I don't even think one and a half. | |
| I think you're just It was one and a half. | |
| It was one dude and then one person who said it begins with an M. But begins with an M is hardly, you know, a question to ask a doctor. | |
| Um Doctor, I have COVID. | |
| Uh can I ask you about the M? | |
| I mean that's not gonna say very much. | |
| I'm gonna give them an inch. | |
| You know, but there can be there are when you have a media, and we have gone through Kamala in our own words, and and we're gonna do more of it. | |
| We're gonna play it as often as we can, especially on the main issues. | |
| And because the media is protecting her. | |
| And a lot of the media is responsible for running these polls. | |
| And if they want to if they want to suppress vote or create a sense of, well, this this thing's baked in the cake against Donald Trump, they're gonna try and do it. | |
| And there are tricks to that trade as well. | |
| That's why I'm arguing to people. | |
| You know, uh we put certain polsters on who we believe have the most credibility. | |
| We put on McLaughlin and Associates, Matt uh Matt Towery from Insider Advantage, Robert Gahaley Trafalgar. | |
| Uh they were most accurate in both 2016 and 2020. | |
| And they, you know, they're two of the top rated polls in the in the country in real clear politics, you know, puts up rating for all of them. | |
| Uh, and I even noticed Nate Silver gives some polls uh uh a greater weight in coming up with his predictions than he gives other polls. | |
| Uh it is interesting that the latest New York Times Siena poll that has come out shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris tied at 4848. | |
| You know, I kind of have a rule about in my own life emotionally, it's like I have to deal with ratings every day of my life. | |
| And ratings is like a report card that you don't have any control over. | |
| And and there's certain methodology issues that come into play. | |
| Just this is all insider, you know, uh information. | |
| It's sort of like inside baseball that none of you really care about. | |
| If you like the show, you like the show. | |
| If you don't like it, you're not listening to me right now, probably. | |
| Or if you are, you're just listening because you like to hate me, which is good too. | |
| I don't care why what reason you listen to me as long as you listen. | |
| And so there are certain things out there that that you've got to understand are being done, but there are powerful institutions that are against Donald Trump, and one of them is a very corrupt state-run media mob. | |
| I would argue, and we've seen this, and we'll talk more about it with Miranda Devine. | |
| She's got a killer new book out. | |
| Oh my gosh, called the big guy. | |
| We're gonna talk to her today. | |
| We'll talk about the media with Joe Concha today. | |
| But if if you look at, for example, the latest poll numbers, you know, they're all over the map, but there are certain polls that I conclude are meant to kinda emotionally make Trump supporters feel like there's no hope, and that's why I want to give you some numbers here. | |
| Not only did the Times Siena poll have Trump and and Kamala Harris tied at 48, and coming from the New York Times, that's saying something. | |
| Uh, but they also show that Donald Trump is leading in Arizona by five points, 50 to 45. | |
| And they show in in two must-win states for him, both Georgia and North Carolina, that he's doing very well as also. | |
| The poll shows Trump leading Harris, 49 uh 45 among likely voters in what North Carolina, I think it is. | |
| The poll shows Arizona, you know, that that's a big five-point lead. | |
| And that is a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the same poll. | |
| And it shows that Trump is up 4945 among likely voters in Georgia. | |
| Likely voters is far more believable. | |
| But if you look at then these winning in North Carolina, and it's it's just very interesting. | |
| I I know that Mark Robinson, the gubernatorial candidate, has been under major fire. | |
| Apparently he's lost his entire campaign staff. | |
| Uh things, how is it this guy's been lieutenant governor, and then all of a sudden they're discovering all these things about him four years later? | |
| How convenient to me. | |
| I just, you know, part of me, I don't know. | |
| I just have this suspicious part of my brain at all times. | |
| But anyway, back to the uh, but that does not impact the only reason I bring it is, you know, Kamala Harris offered effusive praise for you know Mr. Freak Off himself, her friend Sean uh uh Pity of P. Diddy, whatever his name is, the the rap mogul, and who has been credibly accused of beating, raping, torturing multiple women. | |
| And anyway, Vice President Harris once offered a fusive praise for Sean P. Diddy by participating in a town hall dedicated to COVID and African Americans. | |
| And, you know, Sean and I want to thank you because you know you've always have a way of of convening and bringing folks together, Harris said on the call. | |
| And then she followed it up with an effusive tweet that's now being widely mocked on social media, and the event featured other people anyway. | |
| Diddy ended the call by thanking uh Camilla Harris, didn't even know her name. | |
| I mean, is the media that is saying, well, Donald Trump once heard Mark Robinson speak and he thought he was an effective speaker uh to the fact that nobody knew that he's alleged to have committed all to have said all these controversial things that Kamala Harris know that P. Diddy was involved in these freak offs, as they call them, and that he was involved in all of this conduct, or that he's on video beating the hell out of a woman in a hotel? | |
| I don't think so. | |
| So, you know, it's it just doesn't go the same way. | |
| And this is this is the probably the biggest challenge. | |
| But anyway, but back to the polling for a second. | |
| So that would be pretty good news for Donald Trump today. | |
| But like my rule in radio and TV with ratings every day is I don't get too high or too low. | |
| You very rarely hear me talk about ratings. | |
| And we've consistently been one of the top rated shows in all of cable news ever since we overtook Larry King on CNN, and you don't hear me talk about it a lot. | |
| Or if there's a slow news night or a bad new rating night, you don't hear me come on the air complaining. | |
| I don't get too high, I don't get too low. | |
| I would urge you to take the same approach towards hearing these these poll numbers. | |
| I mean, I was kind of encouraged by a poll that came out this this weekend, old Dominion Voters. | |
| This was from the University of Mary, Washington, and 4746 in Virginia. | |
| Kamala's a one-point lead there. | |
| John McLaughlin went back and he actually looked at the poll numbers. | |
| For example, if you look at, you know, oh, let's see October 18th of 2016. | |
| Well, the real clear politics average for Hillary Clinton was 49.41. | |
| And anyway, Clinton, you know, you had in 2016, there were some real gems. | |
| MBC had Clinton leading 514. | |
| Another CBS poll had Clinton winning 5140. | |
| On election day, 538, then run by Nate Silver, who I actually think is a pretty smart guy, uh, but any pollster can get things wrong. | |
| It's not a perfect science, but she had a 71% chance of winning. | |
| She lost, Trump won. | |
| If you go to 2020 and you go to this date in 2020, Biden was up by eight points, 50 to 42. | |
| If you go to election day, he was up 5144. | |
| And, you know, when you look at the end results, what do you what do you come up with? | |
| By the way, you had other good organizations, MBC had Biden winning 5242. | |
| Economist Ugov had, you know, just days before the election, 5343 Biden winning. | |
| And okay, Biden won by 44,000 votes in three states. | |
| I'd say that the polling sucked. | |
| You know, now people that got 2016 and 2020 right are people that I mentioned that we use regularly. | |
| Doesn't mean they can't be wrong either occasionally. | |
| A lot of people got 2022 wrong, but I don't think people realize the impact of Roe v. | |
| Wade, which I think is many ways has been dealt with. | |
| You know, if you'd want to go back to 2020 and look at the New York Times and their final poll numbers, if if we're going to use them as an example today, well, their final poll in 2020 had there was six off by having Biden up by three. | |
| And in North Carolina, they were off by five points. | |
| And in Pennsylvania, they were off by five points. | |
| And in Arizona, they were off by six points. | |
| In Wisconsin, they were all off by a whopping ten points. | |
| So, I mean, this is these are all things to factor in when you hear anybody on any network or anybody telling you about polls, because I think it's important that you have the context and the understanding about them, and Democratic Democrats are even fearing, Senate Democrats are concerned that once again, undercounting of the Trump vote is real, especially, you know, if you look at estates where maybe Harris has a slim lead in a battleground state. | |
| I am just telling you, anybody that says right now with any level of you know certainty that they know how this election is going to come out, they don't. | |
| And you've got to assume that they don't. | |
| But, you know, if on average polls overestimated Biden's support in swing states in 2020 by nearly four percentage points, that's a pretty strong pro-democratic bias that it could automatically be factored into trying to understand state and national level polling in this election. | |
| And I think it's something that we have to think about or you have to be cognizant of. | |
| In 2020, Biden polled as leading Trump by 7.9 points in Michigan. | |
| Biden won by, you know, under three points. | |
| That's a pretty significant decline. | |
| He polled at 2.6 points in Arizona. | |
| He won by 0.3. | |
| He polled at 1.2 in Georgia, he won by 0.2. | |
| Biden polled at plus 4.7 in Pennsylvania, he won by 1.2. | |
| How can you be off by three and a half points? | |
| You know, the same thing in Nevada. | |
| He polled at plus 4.9, he he won by 2.4. | |
| He polled at well plus 1.8 in North Carolina, lost by 1.3. | |
| I mean, these are, you know, it's a very, very divided country. | |
| And that's why I am telling people, you know, maybe the message that has gotten out is voting early, not the system we want, voting by mail, because that seems early anecdotal data to have gotten through. | |
| I've spent four years on this program reinforcing the message, kind of like the monoclonal antibody message, and it probably has taken four years for some of you that have been reluctant and resistant, but you can't start out election day. | |
| I argue. | |
| I don't like these rules, but you have to win elections to change them. | |
| And but you can't start out down hundreds of thousands of votes. | |
| So former Atlanta mayor, uh Keisha Lance Bottoms argued Friday that the reason the Vice President Kamala Harris has done so few media interviews is because she's very, very busy. | |
| And she's on pace now to grant the fewest interviews of any major party presidential nominee ever. | |
| And she's rightly been slammed by both allies and critics, you know, for barely sitting down and doing anything. | |
| And by the way, this whole, oh, let's debate on fake news CNM. | |
| We only do what Democrats only debate on liberal networks when Fox offered her a debate that she outright rejected and has offered her other debates to be hosted by Brett Bear, Martha McCallum that she has outright rejected. | |
| Of course, the media doesn't care about that. | |
| I mean, I love the media that trying to tie Donald Trump to this North Carolina gubernatorial candidate. | |
| Are they going to now the same media are they going to tie Kamala Harris and her effusive praise for, you know, Mr. Freak Off himself, you know, P. Diddy, because she praised him. | |
| I mean, oh, well, did Donald Trump know anything? | |
| No. | |
| Nobody in North Carolina knew about these alleged comments that were supposedly made, although Robinson, I guess, said today that he's denying it and is going to sue, but apparently people around him may not believe him because they apparently left his campaign. | |
| That has nothing to do with Donald Trump and the fact that he heard one speech and praised the speech. | |
| If he had known, he never would have. | |
| Just like I doubt if Kamala Harris, if I'm going to be fair here, and I am, which is something the mob in the media never is. | |
| I don't think she if she had she known about Freak Off P. Diddy and the allegations that would come out against him that she ever would have praised him. | |
| But it's the same thing, but it's covered differently. | |
| Oh, you'll be very, very happy to know that nine high-ranking former national security and military officials who signed a letter on Sunday endorsing Vice President Harris and a run for office, included Leon Panetta, who actually said that the attack used by Israel against Hezbollah members out of Lebanon that have been firing rockets into Israel, | |
| you know, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of them, and the pagers that went on. | |
| He called it a terror attack. | |
| But you got Panetta signing the letter, Clapper signing the letter, Brennan signing the letter. | |
| Gee, what a shock. | |
| You know, four years ago, they're the same people that dismissed the very real infamous Hunter Biden laptop as Russian disinformation, and none of them knew a damn thing about the laptop. | |
| None of them even looked at the laptop. | |
| But they did it to give Joe a talking point because Wink and Tony Blinken asked them to do it. | |
| And they just didn't want Trump to win. | |
| You know, there is a uh major IRS affiliated union that just endorsed Kamala Harris, of course, because they want, what, 87,000 more agents to harass Americans and make sure you pay every penny you can pay on tips on uh on service workers. | |
| It's insane. | |
| Well, Kamala says she switched. | |
| I don't believe her. | |
| Uh Anyway, we have uh, you know, a lot of other news. | |
| We have bloodthirsty of bloodthirsty Venezuelan gang. | |
| By the way, it's not just Aurora, Colorado and Springfield, Missouri. | |
| What's bothers me about this, and this gets to the heart of my argument of what Donald Trump is up against in this election. | |
| You know, he goes, they they tried to make the biggest deal after he's literally sandbagged in his first question at the National Association of Black Journalists, and it becomes a story that goes on for days and days and days and days and days. | |
| Or JD Vance makes an old comment about cats and and they're still asking about that story, you know, months later. | |
| You know, in the debate, they only fact check one person, Donald Trump, and I can give you the list of lies. | |
| We've covered them over and over again on this program that she told in that debate. | |
| She lies about Trump in 2025, Project 2025. | |
| I don't even know what Project 2025 is. | |
| I've never talked to anybody involved in it. | |
| I have no idea what it none whatsoever. | |
| And I've no desire to know with it. | |
| All Trump said is it's not my agenda, and I have nothing to do with it, never read it, never touched it, not a part of it. | |
| But they just keep telling that lie. | |
| Let's just like they demagogue and lie about Trump and abortion. | |
| He'll sign a bill eliminating abortion in America. | |
| No, he won't. | |
| He's been president. | |
| Want to talk about a threat to the democracy is all the propaganda, lies and disinformation of a corrupt media mob. | |
| You know, uh, you know, we have Kamala in her own words. | |
| We have Kamala's actions over the years. | |
| We put together the Kamala Files, the Walls files as a public service because the mob, the state-run media will never cover it. | |
| We have her on record as co-sponsoring the new Green Deal, $93 trillion, which would destroy capitalism, and saying she'd eliminate the filibuster to pass it. | |
| And she sponsored that with Bernie Sanders, just like she co-sponsored the government health care for all, Medicare for All Bill, Universal Healthcare, and said on tape she would eliminate private health insurance. | |
| We see what's happening in Springfield, Ohio, Aurora, Colorado, in small towns and big cities, now Venezuelan gangs literally taking over New York. | |
| You should see the front cover of the New York Post today. | |
| It's not pretty. | |
| Have they ever mentioned the dozens of Americans that have been murdered? | |
| The dozens of Americans, including young children that have been raped, the hundreds of Americans that have been victims of violent crimes by Harris Biden, unvetted illegal immigrants from 180 countries, including our top geopolitical foes and countries with terror ties. | |
| Never have they ever mentioned the hundreds of people that they have allowed into this country that we know have terror ties from countries that have terror ties and that we don't know where they are. | |
| You know, forget about her promise for, you know, oh, earn citizenship or path earned pathway to citizen. | |
| That's called amnesty or free housing or free health care or free education. | |
| Anybody in the media ever going to mention that? | |
| Or free sex change operations, the courtesy of you, the taxpayer that Kamala Harris supports. | |
| Do they ever mention America's real suffering when they go to grocery stores and their shopping and what their inflation has done to families all across their country? | |
| You know, she says it's the cost of democracy, higher energy bills because of her environmental environmental radicalism. | |
| And every time people fill up their cars or pay their their electric bill, it's higher than they've ever paid. | |
| And that the real impact of Biden inflation or the impact of high interest rates preventing so many Americans from buying a house. | |
| And again, never mind the support of the new Green Deal, the largest tax increase in history, the elimination of private health care. | |
| All of this, she's going to fix inflation. | |
| Immigration on day one. | |
| Day one was January 20th, 2021. | |
| Americans now, this is a media created mirage, You know, protected. | |
| They're protecting her in ways I've never seen in my life. | |
| They've created a false image of a candidate of joy and freedom with no real questions. | |
| It is beyond a disservice to the American people. | |
| It is it is scary what they're doing. | |
| You know, now we're gonna what? | |
| Hire all these IRS agents. | |
| By the way, you've ever had an audit from the IRS to pay in the ass and cost you a fortune. | |
| Even when you're completely innocent, I always tell people pay your taxes. | |
| It's a matter of when, not if they're gonna come after you. | |
| He hasn't done a formal press conference since emerging 64 days ago as the Democratic nominee, dodging questions. | |
| Even Democrats and now Wall Street Journals, Peggy Nooning Noonan suggesting voters now have a choice between awful and empty. | |
| She hates Donald Trump. | |
| That's fine. | |
| But you know, the point is he's empty. | |
| And we know the real Kamala Harris because we have her in her own words, but nobody will dare ask her a question about it. | |
| You know, we she owes this country answers, and the media ought to be demanding it, but they're so corrupt they won't. | |
| Anyone here walls this weekend declaring we can't afford four more years of this? | |
| That's the only thing this guy's ever said that I agree with. | |
| I don't agree with his position on not calling in the National Guard in the summer of 2020 and opening, you know, the windows to their family home so they can smell burning rubber from the rioting, or Kamala Harris tweeting out the bell fund four days after a police precinct is burned to the ground and saying on Colbert that the rioters are not going to stop and shouldn't stop, and that she's not going to stop. | |
| Look, Kamala Harris made it clear. | |
| These guys want to instill fear. | |
| They want to tell you that just get over it. | |
| It's a fact of life. | |
| This is the way it is. | |
| She simply has said it doesn't have to be this way. | |
| It doesn't have to be this way. | |
| We can't afford we can't afford four more years of this, and I've been saying it. | |
| You're right. | |
| We can't afford four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. | |
| And he's more left. | |
| He's the guy that wants to put feminine products in boys' bathrooms and give legal driver's licenses to illegals and free college education to illegals. | |
| On top of, you know, uh sex change care without parental consent. | |
| He didn't answer Kamala in either the Oprah Winfrey interview or the National Association of Black Journalists, she doesn't answer a single question. | |
| And nobody nobody is telling people what she has said she believes in her own words. | |
| Again, as a public service, it's all on Hannity.com. | |
| You know, we can't afford four more years of this. | |
| That's that's about the only thing that that walls has ever said that I agree with. | |
| You know, I mean, Victor Davis Hansen, can Harris's cynical run out the clock campaign succeed? | |
| Well, early voting has started to some level at succeeding. | |
| I believe that it's slowly penetrating into the consciousness of the American people, some of the radicalism. | |
| By the way, Kamala wasn't the only one to praise P. Diddy, so did AOC and Al Sharpton. | |
| But they only want to talk about Donald Trump and a Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina. | |
| Well, had Trump known, he wouldn't have supported the guy, just like every other Republican has basically said, well, prove us prove it wrong or forget it. | |
| You have more video, we'll play it later in the program of more support of her ban on fracking. | |
| She did this on the tonight's uh show with uh Jimmy Fallon. | |
| Look at this. | |
| Ethan sent this to me today. | |
| U.S. home price to median household income ratio is now at seven point two times, which is a new all-time high. | |
| That means the average single family home in the U.S. now costs more than seven times the median annual household income. | |
| The ratio is officially above 7.1% recorded in 2022. | |
| I mean, even during the before the pandemic, the ratio was at like five percent. | |
| You know, and one of the key issues in Pennsylvania is the economy. | |
| And Pennsylvania experienced, you know, the highest grocery inflation rate in the country last year, 8.2% year over year. | |
| But don't worry, Kamala's gonna fix it on day one. | |
| We're supposed to believe that. | |
| We're supposed to believe after saying over and over again she'll ban fracking that she's now all of a sudden gonna really support fracking. | |
| Has anyone taken a look at all of these tax proposals to raise taxes on small business corporations, wealth tax, estate tax, capital gains tax, unrealized capital gains tax. | |
| You know, you have all these build to rent communities growing, a U.S. trend because of sky high housing costs, so people can live in a home even though they can't afford the high interest rates. | |
| And don't give me this 50 basis point Jerome Powell uh campaign donation of Kamala Harris, because I'm not buying that either. | |
| By the way, Harris illegals are now running a brothel across the street from a Queens, New York elementary school. | |
| Venezuelan gangs taking over in New York. | |
| Big Apple is a trend, which is a Venezuelan gang that's basically taking over the entire city of New York. | |
| Unbelievable. | |
| All right. | |
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| She already has on her website a path to earn path to citizenship. | |
| That is amnesty. | |
| You know, what part of this is the mob and the media not willing to, you know, tell people about? | |
| Anyway, we'll check in with Miranda Devine. | |
| Her new book, The Big Guy, How a President and His Son Sold Out America. | |
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