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July 17, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
33:07
Trump Polls Improving - July 17th, Hour 3
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So as uh Joe Biden, every day he survives, gets closer to locking in the 3,0900 delegates of the 4,000 available.
And as people like Adam Schiff have now joined the choir of Democrats calling for Biden to step aside, um well, what does this mean?
I don't think anybody can predict with any sense of accuracy how this plays out.
If I had to guess, I don't know, maybe I I think Joe has a very good chance of survival.
But I would not be at all surprised if in fact Kamala Harris or somebody else were to replace him.
Uh where are we in terms of the race?
Well, that's where our friends, our polsters come in.
Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, Robert Cahely, Trafalgar Group, uh Real Clear Politics, uh has uh pointed out that they were the two most accurate pollsters in the last two presidential election cycles.
Uh welcome uh back back both of you to the program.
Uh appreciate you being with us.
Thank you.
Happy to be with you.
All right, Matt, let me start with you.
I I saw your poll, Fox Five Atlanta, uh, but uh we have more details of this.
Biden's up by three in Georgia, but what surprised me the most is Kamala Harris, she's down by ten against Donald Trump.
I would assume that if they're doing their own polling, internal polls, that the Biden administration has to know this, and Democrats have to know this, do they not?
Matt Towery.
Sean, I have to tell you, in in every one of these states, the trend was the same.
Harris was running about 10 points below Biden in a in a ballot test against Trump.
But even more important, and I will say this.
We have not seen some big bump for Trump after the sh the almost tragic shooting.
But it may be seen in another way.
The enthusiasm gap.
In other words, we ask people how enthusiastic they are about voting in November.
80 to 55 Republican in Florida, 85 to 59 Republican in Arizona, Nevada, it's 8260, Pennsylvania, it's 59 uh 7559, and then in Georgia, it's 8952.
If voters are that unenthusiastic and they have no other alternative in their vice president, they're going to have to stick with Biden, and they're going to have to find a way, some way, to make their voters get out to the polls in big numbers in November, or these these polling numbers are giving you could be much higher for Trump.
Uh let's get your take, Robert Cahely, and I know you've been out in the field as well.
What are your poll numbers?
What are you beginning to see?
Well, our uh Wisconsin uh and we've we based ours on uh the people who have qualified to be on their ballot.
Uh so we didn't do just head to head.
We we included all the others, but at Wisconsin, uh we have Trump up by 2.6 uh at 45.6 to 43 point zero.
And in uh Michigan, we have uh Trump up by 2.1 uh 45.1 to 43.
And so what we're seeing is it's kind of what Matt's talking about.
But I think the the real phenomenon is we've seen people drop off of Kennedy and move to undecided.
Now, in my experience, uh there are you know what we call our hidden Trump voters are often answering undecided at this point.
Uh so I just think that the dropping people who have gone who Kennedy uh to undecided uh tend to be the ones that are on the more conservative side of things.
So I think what's happening is they're just they're considering uh doing something different.
But you know, this case is really kind of baked.
I mean, it's it we've just seen people who think Biden's incompetent who are still voting for him, who think that Trump was guilty of the charges but are still voting for Trump.
And so I think the assassination uh as much as it does drive uh interest in voting, I I just don't know that it's affecting the top line, but I d I do like what it does for the enthusiasm.
Uh we measure enthusiasm a little differently, but we are definitely seeing a huge uh difference in enthusiasm.
Uh explain explain the difference in in how you measure enthusiasm.
Well, the w we make m we have like like six different categories of enthusiasm.
I think Matt does three.
Kind of like Matt Web doing it a little better.
I think it's simpler, but you know, very interested and very, very, you know, likely to vote.
We're finding the people that are for Trump are just I mean, it i it's like in the eighties and ninety percent of their willingness to participate and then kind of gonna vote, likely uh you know, gonna vote, maybe vote.
We find those kind of move toward Biden, and those people are in most cases well below 60.
So it it it is there's just that enthusiasm gap will will affect turnout, and it doesn't just affect turnout.
It affects the number of people who want to walk doors, the number of people who want to make calls, it it filters down to the entire thing, and the Democrats incredible get off the vote depends on people being a little enthusiastic.
So I think it affects more than election day.
Well what are you seeing as it relates to Kamala Harris?
Are you seeing what Matt is seeing?
Okay, we didn't measure Kamala Harris uh because this point after the attempt to assassination Trump, that was kind of off the headlines.
So we didn't we didn't measure that.
We did a like I said, a little differently.
And we will have uh North Carolina uh tomorrow.
So that was kind of so is is mo is all of your polling post-assassination attempt?
Yes, sir.
Yes, sir.
Okay, so you don't see a discernible difference yet.
Is it something that maybe will take a little time to sink into the the consciousness of of the American voters?
I think it might.
And the other thing I think is just in looking the way that Trump has been at the convention, if his convention speech is a departure from his normal speech and uh a more uniting uh, you know, a less uh just less normal Trump and and and kind of maybe in a new direction, I think that that combined with the uh attempted assassination uh could have a a huge impact.
Because people what I think that we'll we'll find is that people want to see that didn't like Trump that this has affected the way he thinks and maybe added a degree of humility or just a degree of appreciation, you know, just I mean near Deficit.
Well, maybe maybe it did a good job.
I'm just speculating here.
I mean, because Donald Trump has been so demonized by so many for so long that did it do a job of of pointing out that you know the dehumanizing efforts of the left over all these many years.
Uh maybe it came home that hey, this guy is a father, this guy is a human being, this guy is not Adolf Hitler uh or evil as Joe Biden calls him.
Well, think about it this way too.
Another angle is people who would have never tuned in to hear what Trump had to say because they think they already know what he's gonna say, and that they're kind of done with him.
This assassination attempt is going to make people want to hear what he has to say.
And so his message might be delivered to people whose ears are usually closed to him.
And I think it can be very positive for him.
Let's get your take on that, Matt Towery.
Well, I have a couple of takes.
First of all, I think the enthusiasm gap is a bigger thing than we realize because really, in reality, we're we're polling off of turnout models from the past, right?
We have to make predictions.
If the gap continues, those turnout models have to be adjusted as well.
So it could well be we tighten, we pull very tightly, uh, Sean.
We we're not like private posters for candidates or whatever.
We have to be very tight in what we do.
I think Trump has enjoyed an advantage uh post uh the shooting.
I think it could get much stronger after the convention, but I will say conventions only give so much of a boost.
And to Robert's point, a lot of the cake is baked in as to how people feel about these candidates.
There's only so much wiggle room to change minds.
It's a matter of who turns out and how big.
And I think the biggest bottom line out of all this polling is the enthusiasm gap being almost 20% in most of these states, which is unbelievable.
And I'm shocked.
And these are people who say they're going to vote, but if they say they're enthusiastic about voting, they're really going.
And that means you're going to have a stronger turnout.
If Trump can keep that going on in all of these states, and he's leading in everyone, he will definitely be elected.
All right.
So where where does the race stand now?
I mean, the president's really been having a very good week, in my opinion.
I'll start with you, Matt, on this question.
Uh J.D. Vance was selected.
I had the first interview with him.
Uh I will say this, and uh as one measurement ratings were through the roof.
Uh Americans wanted to know more about J. D. Vance.
I asked every question that I could possibly think of.
I left nothing off the table, uh, starting with his past criticism of Donald Trump in 2016, even as going as far as to compare him to Hitler.
And and I thought he had very good answers for all those questions, issues of abortion, issues involving women.
I mean, we went over every every single source of potential controversy he may be facing.
And he he's with with a what seemed like a lot of ease, he was able to explain it all.
Yeah, I mean, that was a great interview, by the way.
And I I think that um Vance absolutely no harm to the ticket whatsoever.
That's the number one thing.
Do no harm.
It keeps the face enthused, it keeps everyone going.
He's youthful.
I think that's going to potentially attract uh voters.
And by the way, Robert and I are both seeing these same patterns that the youngest of voters are going to Trump in so many of these states, which is reverses what we've seen in the past.
It's actually the folks in the middle who are his biggest problem right now, and the older voters are beginning to drift back to Trump.
But I think Vance is a strong selection for Trump politically.
I think he gives a future for the Republican Party, and he seems to acquit himself very well.
And he's avoided this critical time period, you know, with the media, they're just a rabbit in trying to attack anything that boosts Trump at all.
And he's survived the last few days.
They've given their best shot, and it's had very little effect on him, in my opinion.
Let's get your take, Robert, on the same question.
Well, I think the one thing is any candidate is not just judged on what they say after they're announced as vice president.
Uh it's the basically their whole body of work, things they've said before.
Uh, and it I think the media is is they've already started to kind of hone in on what he said right after the shooting uh and saying, you know, he he prematurely blamed it and some of the other things he said in the past about abortion.
So I think there's gonna they're gonna spend a lot of time on that.
Uh but I I but I still think as far as moving things forward, um, this is Trump's answer to uh there's a lot of people who have had all they can take of identity politics.
And while everybody kept telling Trump, pick this person this person, it's like Trump said, I can't say that I've I cannot be against identity politics and yet give into it to a certain degree when it comes to my running mate.
And I think that statement that he just found somebody who fit ideologically that he thought had the credentials to be president and he ignored that other stuff.
I think that's a that's that's a statement that's gonna people are gonna realize that he he didn't give in to any of that, or any of that pressure.
And then we're what about this iconic photo?
He just gets shot in the ear, and it did pierce his ear.
He comes within a millimeter of death, and he insists on standing up, pumping his fist, and shouting, fight, fight.
It's uh to me, it's now iconic.
And you know, compare that to this weak, frail cognitive, deteriorating, you know, old man that's in the White House now.
I mean, w what a contrast in images.
How big is that gonna be?
I mean, that that photo is is on the level of Bush in the rubble with them with a megaphone.
It it really is.
And and I think it it will be seen that way.
And this movement of people that were in the middle in our numbers back to undecided, not off of Trump, but from Kennedy and others to undecided, I think in the end we'll probably end up with Trump.
I I think we've got a new crop of quote unquote hidden Trump voters that are brand new Trump voters that aren't ready to say so yet.
So I I think we're gonna see more movement, and I think a convention speech that people are listening to in higher numbers than ever cared what Trump had to say.
A conventional speech that even the most liberal networks will carry is gonna go a long way toward good toward consolidating that.
Well, let me ask the last question, because there was a poll out today.
Here's my question.
Will he be the candidate and I gotta run?
Uh Matt Tower, yes or no.
They that there's no way that they can't pass over Harrison.
She can't win.
She's too far behind.
So he will you that you predict he will be he will remain the candidate.
I do, yes.
What do you think, Robert?
Short of him doing something really dumb between now and his commission, I think he will be the candidate.
Well, he could be one fall away or one really horrible cognitive moment uh away from being replaced.
I can be you have to add that caveat, and anything can happen in you know just what, a hundred and ten days from now.
And again, early voting starts in just a mere 61 days in Pennsylvania.
Hey, listen, appreciate both of you.
We'll have you on often before the election.
Hey there, I'm Mary Catherine Hamm.
And I'm Carol Markowitz.
We've been in political media for a long time.
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Hey there, I'm Mary Catherine Hammond.
And I'm Carol Markowitz.
We've been in political media for a long time.
Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
That's why we started normally a podcast for people who are over the hysteria and just want clarity.
We talk about the issues that actually matter to the country without panic, without yelling, and with a healthy dose of humor.
We don't take ourselves too seriously, but we do take the truth seriously.
So if you're into common sense, sanity, and some occasional sass.
You're our kind of people.
Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday.
On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen.
I'm Ben Ferguson.
And I'm Ted Cruz.
Three times a week we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes, inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
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So down a verdict with Ted Cruz now, wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, back to our phones.
Hey Paul, welcome to Milwaukee.
Glad you called, sir.
Hey, Sean, thanks for taking my my my phone call.
So here in Connecticut, Sean, you know, it's it's uh it's it's tough up here because you know, we are uh we're we're we're underrated here because you know we have we're outnumbered, and uh we got a lot of Trump supporters, but our vote doesn't count here.
So it's difficult.
And when you see what happened, when you see what happened on Saturday, and you know, you gotta say to yourself, 26 minutes, this guy's walking around.
There spectators are stay are are are are screaming that there's a shooter on the roof and and nothing is done, and then you got Joe Biden that comes out and says, Well, you know, we're gonna have a special counsel.
No.
No, we we've been down that road.
We've seen your special counsels with the tetra's uh dossier.
We've seen them with the uh with Oh, we've seen it with a lot of cases.
I'm uh I'm trying to help you out here.
Uh because you're dead on right what you're saying.
You know, we have seen it over and over again.
We've seen the double standard, we've seen the weaponization of our Justice Department.
Uh we've seen 51 former Intel officials lie to us.
We've seen a dirty disinformation dossier used as the basis for four Pfizer warrants to spy on candidate Trump and then President Trump.
Uh we've seen enough double standard, top secret classified information, the servers of Hillary Clinton, four locations, top secret classified information, Joe Biden, but only Mar-a-Lago gets rated rated.
Uh and thankfully, a judge in Florida said, sorry, but the appointment of Jack Smith uh was not constitutional due to the appointments clause, and and that should wipe out every case he was involved in.
End of sentence.
Oh, no question.
And and you know, another thing too, too, Sean.
You know, you look at Senator Murphy here in Connecticut, you know, he's the first one.
You know, anytime there's a mass shooting, he's out there, he wants to ban guns, but yet all he said with this was, you know, he's he's he doesn't condone it.
You know, he should be, you know, if if God forbid, and I mean this from the bottom of my heart, God forbid, if it was somebody like Maxine Waters, he'd be jumping on the soapbox in in Washington saying we gotta take every gun away from every American, and and here they are doing nothing.
It just shows it's all smoking mirrors from the Democratic Party.
It really just to me is is just sad on on so many different levels.
And you know, we've got a country at this point we've got to save here.
We've got a country that I I I've never been this afraid for the the state this country is in.
I can't believe the clear and present danger that Joe Biden has created at our border.
Uh I can't believe the disaster of his economy, but remember, inflation is transitory.
Remember, remember the border is secure and the border is closed.
Uh remember, uh, deep fund dismantled, no bail laws, uh Kamala Harris tweeting out a bail fund, you know, right after Minneapolis police precinct is burned to the ground.
I mean, we're living in very distorted, ugly, troubled times.
Never mind that Joe's surrendered in the war on against radical Islamic terrorism.
Oh, well, we'll we'll help uh Israel defend itself, but we won't support their effort to win their war against the radical terrorist that killed twelve hundred people, took hundreds hostage.
It would have been the equivalent based their population side extrapolated extrapolated out versus ours.
That would have been 40,000 dead Americans in a day.
Really?
You're not gonna fight that war to win that war?
Well, we're no longer the leader of the free world and Joe surrendered.
So it's about America's standing in the world, our place in the world.
It's about energy.
It's about borders.
It's about law and order.
It's about the economy.
It's about all the above.
There's so much at stake here.
And I've never felt a greater sense of urgency than in my life as I'm feeling right now.
I just haven't.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Even here in Connecticut, uh, Sean.
I mean, we're taxed to death here.
Um, hard working people in Connecticut.
You know, we need we need Trump because it's not going to change where you're paying taxes, but if we can save at the pumps, if we can get our food bills to to come down, um, our stock markets to go up, our investments to go up where they were.
You know, this guy's talking about you know nine percent inflation when it was one point four.
Yes, he he's clueless.
But in Connecticut, Sean, we need Donald Trump.
And, you know, obviously he's not gonna there's no reason for him to come here because he it's it's not gonna they're all gonna vote blue.
It doesn't matter.
But but where I am in the valley in Connecticut, it's all hardworking Americans, and and we're all we're all red, and and we're we're all with Trump, but but we need him and and we need to continue to have your voice because you are the voice of us, and uh you know it's important that that we ever want to go out there and vote because like you said, this election, you know, it's not it's not it's not lamp dunk.
No, it's uh and I uh I cannot emphasize that enough.
Don't believe for a second this is over.
We don't even know who we're running against fully.
We don't know.
And I know Linda doesn't get it.
I've tried to explain it to her.
I actually called Stephen A. Smith and asked him if he would try to explain it to her, and he's gonna try.
But you know, we have to act like we're behind.
And it's that simple.
And it's a football game, and there's two minutes left in the game.
You know what else to learn from Stephen A?
And we have no timeouts.
What else did you learn from Stephen A?
I'll tell you in a second.
Oh, yeah, you'll tell me.
You have no timeouts.
You're on your own 20.
You gotta march down the field 80 yards, you gotta cross the plane and kick the extra point if you want to win.
You're down by six.
Do you know what that means?
What I just said means I gotta make a lot of dip.
Big dip, lots of so hoagies and sandwiches and things.
You know, it's gonna be a very successful game.
Big dip.
Big dip.
Big dip, like artichoke or something.
Yeah, or to spinach.
I'm very popular at football parties.
I've never I I don't know.
I've never gone to one of your football parties.
I think you would find it very educational, because you will see.
I cheer at the right time.
Because everyone else cheers.
That's right.
That's exactly right.
But in all seriousness, that's how you gotta look at this.
I'm very worried for our country.
I'm worried for the state of the world.
There's we now are witnessing what what a weak America means for the world.
I mean, how embarrassing is it?
Come on, Joe, come on back to the to the group, Joey.
You know, the Italian prime minister dragging him back, or Barack Obama, and they weren't cheap fake videos.
They tried to call us liars and conspiracy theorists.
There was no editing of those videos.
And then, okay, Joe, uh, oh, let me grab your hand, Joey.
Come with come of me, come up Iraq.
I'll put my arm around you, we'll get you off the stage.
I did most of the talking anyway, because you're you're a cognitive mess.
So I saved your ass, but you know what?
Now he's undermining him big time.
Uh the stakes are high.
I mean, sixty-one days from now, early voting begins in Pennsylvania, and we don't know who the Democratic candidate is.
That's unfair to the American people.
This is why we shouldn't have early voting.
This is why we should have election day and national holiday.
This is why we should have paper ballots.
This is why proof of citizenship, which was the SAVE Act being debated last week that we discussed in detail, should be the law of the land.
Democrats don't want any integrity measures.
This is why you need voter ID and signature verification.
This is why you need updated voter roles, chain of custody controls, partisan observers in every precinct in the country watching the voting all day, up close, and the vote counting all night up close.
Um but they don't want that either.
Wonder why.
Why wouldn't they want those measures?
I think the answer's obvious.
They think it works in their favor not to have them.
Uh all right, let's get back to our busy, busy, busied telephones.
As we say hi to George, he's holding down the Ford, he's in the free state of Florida.
You gotta be proud of your governor and your senator last night.
I thought they were both were phenomenal.
What do you think of Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio?
I thought they were both great.
Oh, they did a wonderful job, uh, Sean.
Uh very, very great.
They're that's unity.
I mean when they're that's what you know, they all have their differences, but they all are focused on what the the the uh main goal is to beat uh beat the Democrats come in November.
But um thank you for having me on.
Um first of all, I wanted to thank you for um my wife and I going out to dinner last month.
You picking up the tab.
You're a man of your word.
I appreciated that.
Uh I did.
I put sent you to dinner.
Where'd you go?
We we went to a uh fine restaurant in Daytona, and uh we were there's a cat's meow for the night.
We had the best meal, the best steak, uh surf and turf and everything on your on your dime.
If you had a great night, and uh I I've contributed a little to that, um that makes me feel great.
I'm glad you deserve it.
I hope you had a the best meal of your life.
And I got I hope you got you know the the most expensive menu item out there with white pepper.
It's an inside joke.
Anyway, what's what's on your mind, my friend?
I'm glad you got at a great time.
Well, my wife and I are just we're sitting there watching the the convention last night, and I don't know if you remember our conversation from the last month.
I was telling you where sh uh the president needs to show his his um his personal side.
And when Sarah Huckabee um uh Sanders and Laura Trump got on air and told them about their personal time with Donald Trump, my wife said yes, like wash rinse repeat.
That is going to move the dial, Sean.
So I'm like this whole week uh I've been on emotional extremes.
First of all, that that uh the debate, that debate is I'm like finally, finally, the world knows what Sean knows.
This president been basically carried by this group.
And and I think eighty percent of the world now who does not watch conservative radio realize that they're in the middle of the Truman show where the the the they have been victimized by the media and you know and and along with uh uh uh uh with uh Truman, we've been victimized, and they're waking up and with with Elon Musk now with the Twitter and all that stuff, it is a new time in the way.
How about Elon committing forty-five million dollars a month for get out the vote efforts for Donald J. Trump?
How cool is that?
It's a game changer.
We talked I talked to you about that a few months ago about him being a game changer with that.
But then here we come with with on Saturday, which that's where it was like, oh my goodness, as as uh as uh uh Sarah Huckabee was saying that you know God is not finished with Donald Trump yet on this side of heaven.
And I was so glad, but also with the oversight, I reminded me of a Banghazi moment um uh Sean, where basically the cost of the bureaucrat bureaucratic bungling, you know, uh Ambassador Stevens saw that he needed more resources, and because of uh our our la last few pr presidents ago wanted me to make appear that he conquered the uh the ISIS things.
He didn't get the resources that he needed, and what happened?
People got killed, and and and then the response on Saturday is it was like you need to be they need to get shot at first before the response.
So the democratic response to all this stuff is an appeasement or do not do not attack to be attacked upon.
And so it was just a blus a blunder, a big blunder, but thankfully our president's alive, and then this this this uh convention is this this is growing, and the unity and and this the um the where we're showing our president.
The president when he went up and said fight five fight, we all know what our president's capable of.
So he can pull back and realize by the way, photographs photographs photographers fear that that Trump photo is propaganda.
No, that's called truth and reality.
It's gonna wrap things up for today.
We have Hannity tonight, day three RNC convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll be joined by Eric Trump, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Ron DeSantis tonight, Laura Ingram, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Judge Janine Piero, Ronnie Jackson, Joe Concha, Paul Manafort.
Set you DVR, Hannity 9 Eastern from the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll see you tonight back here tomorrow.
Thank you for making this show possible.
You want smart political talk without the meltdowns?
We got you.
Now I'm Carol Markovich.
And I'm Mary Catherine Hamm.
We've been around the block in media and we're doing things differently.
Normally is about real conversations.
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We'll keep you informed and entertained without ruining your day.
Join us every Tuesday and Thursday, normally on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm Ben Ferguson.
And I'm Ted Cruz.
Three times a week, we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
We arm you with the facts to be able to know and advocate for the truth with your friends and family.
So down a verdict with Ted Cruz now, wherever you get your podcasts.
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