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July 17, 2024 - Sean Hannity Show
33:03
Trump Polls Improving - July 17th, Hour 3
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So as Joe Biden, every day he survives, gets closer to locking in the 3,900 delegates of the 4,000 available, and as people like Adam Schiff have now joined the choir of Democrats calling for Biden to step aside, well, what does this mean?
I don't think anybody can predict with any sense of accuracy how this plays out.
If I had to guess, I don't know, maybe I think Joe has a very good chance of survival, but I would not be at all surprised if, in fact, Kamala Harris or somebody else were to replace him.
Where are we in terms of the race?
Well, that's where our friends, our pollsters come in.
Matt Towery, Insider Advantage, Robert Cahaley, Trafalgar Group.
Real Clear Politics has pointed out that they were the two most accurate pollsters in the last two presidential election cycles.
Welcome back, both of you, to the program.
Appreciate you being with us.
Thank you.
Happy to be with you.
All right, Matt, let me start with you.
I saw your poll, Fox 5 Atlanta, but we have more details of this.
Biden's up by three in Georgia, but what surprised me the most is Kamala Harris.
She's down by 10 against Donald Trump.
I would assume that if they're doing their own polling, internal polls, that the Biden administration has to know this.
And Democrats have to know this, do they not, Matt Towery?
Sean, I have to tell you, in every one of these states, the trend was the same.
Harris was running about 10 points below Biden in a ballot test against Trump.
But even more important, I will say this, we have not seen some big bump for Trump after the almost tragic shooting.
But it may be seen in another way.
The enthusiasm gap.
In other words, we ask people how enthusiastic they are about voting in November.
80 to 55 Republican in Florida, 85 to 59 Republican in Arizona.
Nevada, it's 82.60.
Pennsylvania, it's 59, 75.59.
And then in Georgia, it's 89.52.
If voters are that unenthusiastic and they have no other alternative than their vice president, they're going to have to stick with Biden and they're going to have to find a way, some way, to make their voters get out to the polls in big numbers in November.
Or these polling numbers I've given you could be much higher for Trump.
Let's get your take, Robert Cahaly.
And I know you've been out in the field as well.
What are your poll numbers?
What are you beginning to see?
Well, our Wisconsin, and we based ours on the people who have qualified to be on their ballot.
So we didn't do just head-to-head.
We included all the others.
But at Wisconsin, we have Trump up by 2.6 at 45.6 to 43.0.
And in Michigan, we have Trump up by 2.1.
45.1 to 43.
And so what we're seeing is kind of what Matt's talking about.
But I think the real phenomenon is we've seen people drop off of Kennedy and move to undecided.
Now, in my experience, there are, you know, what we call our hidden Trump voters are often answering undecided at this point.
So I just think that dropping people who have gone, Kennedy to undecided tend to be the ones that are on the more conservative side of things.
So I think what's happening is they're considering doing something different.
But, you know, this cake is really kind of vague.
I mean, we've just seen people who think Biden's incompetent who are still voting for him, who think that Trump was guilty of the charges, but are still voting for Trump.
And so I think the assassination, as much as it does drive interest in voting, I just don't know that it's affecting the top line, but I do like what it does for the enthusiasm.
We measure enthusiasm a little differently, but we are definitely seeing a huge difference in enthusiasm.
Explain the difference in how you measure enthusiasm.
Well, we have like six different categories of enthusiasm.
I think Matt does three.
Kind of like Matt's way of doing it a little better.
I think it's simpler.
But very interested and very, very, you know, likely to vote.
We're finding the people that are for Trump are just, I mean, it's like in the 80s and 90% of their willingness to participate and then kind of going to vote, likely going to vote, might vote.
We find those kind of move toward Biden, and those people are, in most cases, well below 60.
So there's just that enthusiasm gap will affect turnout, and it doesn't just affect turnout.
It affects the number of people who want to walk doors, the number of people who want to make calls.
It filters down to the entire thing.
And the Democrats' incredible get out the vote depends on people being a little enthusiastic.
So I think it affects more than Election Day.
What are you seeing as it relates to Kamala Harris?
Are you seeing what Matt is seeing?
Okay, we didn't measure Kamala Harris because at this point after the attempt to assassination of Trump, that was kind of off the headlines.
So we didn't measure that.
We did, like I said, a little differently.
And we will have North Carolina tomorrow.
So that was kind of...
So is all of your polling post-assassination attempt?
Yes, sir.
Yes.
Okay, so you don't see a discernible difference yet.
Is it something that maybe will take a little time to sink into the consciousness of the American voters?
I think it might.
And the other thing I think is just in looking the way that Trump has been at the convention, if his convention speech is a departure from his normal speech and a more uniting, you know, a less Just less normal Trump and kind of maybe in a new direction.
I think that that combined with the attempted assassination could have a huge impact.
Because people, what I think that we'll find is that people want to see that didn't like Trump that this has affected the way he thinks and maybe added a degree of humility or just a degree of appreciation.
You know, just, I mean, near Death.
Well, maybe it did a good job.
I'm just speculating here.
I mean, because Donald Trump has been so demonized by so many for so long that did it do a job of pointing out that, you know, the dehumanizing efforts of the left over all these many years, maybe it came home that, hey, this guy is a father.
This guy is a human being.
This guy is not Adolf Hitler or evil as Joe Biden calls him.
Well, think about it this way, too.
Another angle is people who would have never tuned in to hear what Trump had to say because they think they already know what he's going to say and that they're kind of done with him.
This assassination attempt is going to make people want to hear what he has to say.
And so his message might be delivered to people whose ears are usually closed to him.
And I think it can be very positive for him.
Let's get your take on that, Matt Towery.
Well, I have a couple of takes.
First of all, I think the enthusiasm gap is a bigger thing than we realize because, really, in reality, we're polling off of turnout models from the past, right?
We have to make predictions.
If the gap continues, those turnout models have to be adjusted as well.
So it could well be, we poll very tightly, Sean.
We're not like private pollsters for candidates or whatever.
We have to be very tight in what we do.
I think Trump has enjoyed an advantage post the shooting.
I think it could get much stronger after the convention.
But I will say conventions only give so much of a boost.
And to Robert's point, a lot of the cake is baked in as to how people feel about these candidates.
There's only so much wiggle room to change minds.
It's a matter of who turns out and how big.
And I think the biggest bottom line of all this polling is the enthusiasm gap being almost 20% in most of these states, which is unbelievable.
And I'm shocked.
And these are people who say they're going to vote, but if they say they're enthusiastic about voting, they're really going.
And that means you're going to have a stronger turnout.
If Trump can keep that going on in all of these states, and he's leading in everyone, he will definitely be elected.
All right.
So where does the race stand now?
I mean, the president's really been having a very good week, in my opinion.
I'll start with you, Matt, on this question.
JD Vance was selected.
I had the first interview with him.
I will say this, as one measurement, ratings were through the roof.
Americans wanted to know more about JD Vance.
I asked every question that I could possibly think of.
I left nothing off the table, starting with his past criticism of Donald Trump in 2016, even going as far as to compare him to Hitler.
And I thought he had very good answers for all those questions, issues of abortion, issues involving women.
I mean, we went over every single source of potential controversy he may be facing.
And with what seemed like a lot of ease, he was able to explain it all.
Yeah, I think that was a great interview, by the way.
And I think that Vance did absolutely no harm to the ticket whatsoever.
That's the number one thing.
Do no harm.
It keeps the face enthused.
It keeps everyone going.
He's youthful.
I think that's going to potentially attract voters.
And by the way, Robert and I are both seeing these same patterns that the youngest of voters are going to Trump in so many of these states, which reverses what we've seen in the past.
It's actually the folks in the middle who are his biggest problem right now, and the older voters are beginning to drift back to Trump.
But I think Vance is a strong selection for Trump politically.
I think he gives a future for the Republican Party, and he seems to acquit himself very well.
He's avoided this critical time period, you know, where the media.
They're just a rabbit in trying to attack anything that boosts Trump at all.
And he's survived the last few days.
They've given their best shot, and it's had very little effect on him, in my opinion.
Let's get your take, Robert, on the same question.
Well, I think the one thing is any candidate is not just judged on what they say after they're announced as vice president.
It's basically their whole body of work, things they've said before.
And I think the media have already started to kind of hone in on what he said right after the shooting and saying, you know, he prematurely blamed it and some of the other things he said in the past about abortion.
So I think they're going to spend a lot of time on that.
But I still think as far as moving things forward, this is Trump's answer to there's a lot of people who have had all they can take of identity politics.
And while everybody kept telling Trump, pick this person, it's like Trump said, I can't say that I cannot be against identity politics and yet give into it to a certain degree when it comes to my running mate.
And I think that statement that he just found somebody who fit ideologically that he thought had the credentials to be president and he ignored that other stuff, I think that's a statement that people are going to realize that he didn't give into any of that or any of that pressure.
What about this iconic photo?
He just gets shot in the ear, and it did pierce his ear.
He comes within a millimeter of death, and he insists on standing up, pumping his fist, and shouting, fight, fight.
To me, it's now iconic.
And, you know, compare that to this weak, frail, cognitive, deteriorating, you know, old man that's in the White House now.
I mean, what a contrast in images.
How big is that going to be?
I mean, that photo is on the level of Bush in the rubble with the megaphone.
It really is.
And I think it will be seen that way.
And this movement of people that were in the middle in our numbers back to undecided, not off of Trump, but from Kennedy and others to undecided, I think in the end, we'll probably end up with Trump.
I think we've got a new crop of quote-unquote hidden Trump voters that are brand new Trump voters that aren't ready to say so yet.
So I think we're going to see more movement.
And I think a convention speech that people are listening to in higher numbers than ever cared what Trump had to say, a convention speech that even the most liberal networks will carry is going to go a long way toward consolidating that.
Well, let me ask the last question because there was a poll out today.
65% of Democrats want Biden out.
Here's my question.
Will he be the candidate?
And I got to run.
Matt Tower, yes or no?
There's no way they can't pass over Harrison.
She can't win.
She's too far behind.
So you predict he will remain the candidate.
I do, yes.
What do you think, Robert?
Short of him doing something really dumb between now and his commission, I think he will be the candidate.
Well, he could be one fall away or one really horrible cognitive moment away from being replaced.
I can't be, you have to add that caveat, and anything can happen in, you know, just, what, 110 days from now.
And again, early voting starts in just a mere 61 days in Pennsylvania.
Hey, listen, appreciate both of you.
We'll have you on often before the election.
Hey there, I'm Mary Catherine Hammond.
And I'm Carol Markowitz.
We've been in political media for a long time.
Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
That's why we started Normally, a podcast for people who are over the hysteria and just want clarity.
We talk about the issues that actually matter to the country without panic, without yelling, and with a healthy dose of humor.
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Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday.
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Three times a week, we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
We arm you with the facts to be able to know and advocate for the truth with your friends and family.
So download Verdict with Ted Cruz Now, wherever you get your podcasts.
Hey there, I'm Mary Catherine Hammond.
And I'm Carol Markowitz.
We've been in political media for a long time.
Long enough to know that it's gotten, well, a little insane.
That's why we started Normally, a podcast for people who are over the hysteria and just want clarity.
We talk about the issues that actually matter to the country without panic, without yelling, and with a healthy dose of humor.
We don't take ourselves too seriously, but we do take the truth seriously.
So if you're into common sense, sanity, and some occasional sass.
You're our kind of people.
Catch new episodes of Normally every Tuesday and Thursday.
On the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen.
I'm Ben Ferguson, and I'm Ted Cruz.
Three times a week, we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
We arm you with the facts to be able to know and advocate for the truth with your friends and family.
So download Verdict with Ted Cruz Now, wherever you get your podcasts.
All right, back to our phones.
Let's say hi to Paul is in Connecticut.
Hey, Paul, welcome to Milwaukee.
Glad you called, sir.
Hey, Sean, thanks for taking my phone call.
So here in Connecticut, Sean, you know, it's tough up here because, you know, we are underrated here because, you know, we have outnumbered.
And we got a lot of Trump supporters, but our vote doesn't count here.
So it's difficult.
And when you see what happened, when you see what happened on Saturday, and, you know, you got to say to yourself, 26 minutes, this guy's walking around.
Spectators are screaming that there's a shooter on the roof and nothing is done.
And then you got Joe Biden that comes out and says, well, you know, we're going to have a special counsel.
No.
No, we've been down that road.
We've seen your special counsels with the Petitius Dossier.
We've seen them with the...
Oh, we've seen it with a lot of cases.
I'm trying to help you out here.
Because you're dead on right what you're saying.
You know, we've seen it over and over again.
We've seen the double standard.
We've seen the weaponization of our Justice Department.
We've seen 51 former Intel officials lie to us.
We've seen a dirty disinformation dossier used as the basis for four Pfizer warrants to spy on candidate Trump and then President Trump.
We've seen enough double standard, top secret, classified information, the servers of Hillary Clinton, four locations, top secret classified information, Joe Biden, but only Mar-a-Lago gets rated.
And thankfully, a judge in Florida said, sorry, but the appointment of Jack Smith was not constitutional due to the appointments clause, and that should wipe out every case he was involved in.
End of sentence.
Oh, no question.
And, you know, another thing too, Sean, you know, you look at Senator Murphy here in Connecticut.
You know, he's the first one.
You know, anytime there's a mass shooting, he's out there.
He wants to ban guns.
But yet all he said with this was, you know, he doesn't condone it.
You know, he should be, you know, if God forbid, and I mean this from the bottom of my heart, God forbid, if it was somebody like Maxine Waters, he'd be jumping on the soapbox in Washington saying we've got to take every gun away from every American, and here they are doing nothing.
It just shows it's all smoking nerves from the Democratic Party.
It really just, to me, is just sad on so many different levels.
And, you know, we've got a country at this point we've got to save here.
We've got a country that I've never been this afraid for the state this country is in.
I can't believe the clear and present danger that Joe Biden has created at our border.
I can't believe the disaster of his economy.
But remember, inflation is transitory.
Remember, the border is secure and the border is closed.
Remember, you know, deep fund dismantled, no bail laws.
Kamala Harris tweeting out a bail fund, you know, right after a Minneapolis police precinct is burned to the ground.
I mean, we're living in very distorted, ugly, troubled times.
Never mind that Joe surrendered in the war against radical Islamic terrorism.
We'll help Israel defend itself, but we won't support their effort to win their war against the radical terrorist that killed 1,200 people, took hundreds hostage.
It would have been the equivalent based their population side extrapolated out versus ours.
That would have been 40,000 dead Americans in a day.
Really?
You're not going to fight that war to win that war?
Well, we're no longer the leader of the free world, and Joe surrendered.
So it's about America's standing in the world, our place in the world.
It's about energy.
It's about borders.
It's about law and order.
It's about the economy.
It's about all the above.
There's so much at stake here.
And I've never felt a greater sense of urgency than in my life as I'm feeling right now.
I just haven't.
Absolutely.
Absolutely.
Even here in Connecticut, Sean.
I mean, we're taxed to death here.
Hardworking people in Connecticut, you know, we need Trump because it's not going to change way of paying taxes.
But if we can save at the pumps, if we can get our food bills to come down, our stock markets to go up, our investments to go up where they were.
This guy's talking about 9% inflation when it was 1.4.
He's clueless.
But in Connecticut, Sean, we need Donald Trump.
And, you know, obviously he's not going to, there's no reason for him to come here because they're all going to vote blue.
It doesn't matter.
But where I am in the Valley in Connecticut, it's all hardworking Americans, and we're all red, and we're all with Trump.
But we need him, and we need to continue to have your voice because you are the voice of us.
And it's important that everyone goes out there and votes, because like you said, this election, it's not Lamp Dunk.
No, and I cannot emphasize that enough.
Don't believe for a second this is over.
We don't even know who we're running against fully.
We don't know.
And I know Linda doesn't get it.
I've tried to explain it to her.
I actually called Stephen A. Smith and asked him if he would try to explain it to her.
And he's going to try.
But, you know, we have to act like we're behind.
And it's that simple.
And it's a football game, and there's two minutes left in the game.
You know what else to learn from Stephen A?
And we have no timeouts.
What else did you learn from Stephen A?
I'll tell you in a second.
Oh, yeah, you'll tell me.
You have no timeouts.
You're on your own 20.
You got to march down the field 80 yards.
You got to cross the plane and kick the extra point if you want to win.
You're down by six.
Do you know what that means, what I just said?
It means I got to make a lot of dip.
Big dip.
Lots of hoagies and sandwiches and things.
You know, it's going to be a very successful game.
Big dip.
Like artichoke or something.
Oh, yeah, artichoke or spinach.
I'm very popular at football parties.
I've never, I don't know.
I've never gone to one of your football parties.
Listen, I think you would find it very educational because you will see I cheer at the right time.
Because everyone else cheers.
That's right.
That's exactly right.
But in all seriousness, that's how you got to look at this.
I'm very worried for our country.
I'm worried for the state of the world.
We now are witnessing what a weak America means for the world.
I mean, how embarrassing is it?
Come on, Joe.
Come on back to the group, Joey.
You know, the Italian prime minister dragging him back or Barack Obama.
And they weren't cheap fake videos.
They tried to call us liars and conspiracy theorists.
There was no editing of those videos.
And then, okay, Joe, oh, let me grab your hand, Joey.
Come with me.
Come with Barack.
I'll put my arm around you.
We'll get you off the stage.
I did most of the talking anyway because you're a cognitive mess.
So I saved your ass.
But you know what?
Now he's undermining him big time.
The stakes are high.
I mean, 61 days from now, early voting begins in Pennsylvania, and we don't know who the Democratic candidate is.
That's unfair to the American people.
This is why we shouldn't have early voting.
This is why we should have Election Day and National Holiday.
This is why we should have paper ballots.
This is why proof of citizenship, which was the SAVE Act being debated last week that we discussed in detail, should be the law of the land.
Democrats don't want any integrity measures.
This is why you need voter ID and signature verification.
This is why you need updated voter rolls, chain of custody controls, partisan observers in every precinct in the country watching the voting all day up close and the vote counting all night up close.
But they don't want that either.
Wonder why.
Why wouldn't they want those measures?
I think the answer is obvious.
They think it works in their favor not to have them.
All right, let's get back to our busy, busy, busy telephones as we say hi to George.
He's holding down the Ford.
He's in the free state of Florida.
You got to be proud of your governor and your senator last night.
I thought they both were phenomenal.
What do you think of Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio?
I thought they were both great.
Oh, they did a wonderful job, Sean.
Very, very great.
That's unity.
They all have their differences, but they all are focused on what the main goal is to beat the Democrats come in November.
But thank you for having me on.
Well, first of all, I wanted to thank you for my wife and I going out to dinner last month, you picking up the tab.
You're a man of your word.
I appreciated that.
I did.
I sent you to dinner.
Where'd you go?
We went to a fine restaurant in Daytona, and we were just a catch-meow for the night.
We had the best meal, the best steak, surf and turf and everything on your time.
You had a great night, and I contributed a little to that.
That makes me feel great.
I'm glad you deserve it.
I hope you had the best meal of your life.
I hope you got the most expensive menu item out there with white pepper.
It's an inside joke.
Anyway, what's on your mind, my friend?
I'm glad you had a great time.
Well, my wife and I are just sitting there watching the convention last night.
And I don't know if you remember our conversation for the last month, but I was telling you where the president needs to show his personal side.
And when Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Laura Trump got on there and told them about their personal time with Donald Trump, my wife said yes, like wash, rinse, repeat.
That is going to move the dial, Sean.
So I'm like, this whole week, I've been on emotional extremes.
First of all, the debate, that debate, I'm like, finally, finally, the world knows what Sean knows.
This president has been basically been carried by this group.
And I think 80% of the world now who does not watch conservative radio realize that they're in the middle of the Truman show, where they have been victimized by the media.
And, you know, and along with Truman, we've been victimized and they're waking up.
And with Elon Musk now, with the Twitter and all that stuff, it is a new time.
By the way, how about Elon committing $45 million a month for get out the vote efforts for Donald J. Trump?
How cool is that?
It's a game changer.
I talked to you about that a few months ago, about him being a game changer with that.
But then here we come with on Saturday, which that's where it was like, oh my goodness, as Sarah Huckabee was saying that, you know, God has not finished with Donald Trump yet on this side of heaven.
And I was so glad.
But also with the oversight, it reminded me of a Benghazi moment, Sean, where basically the cost of the bureaucratic bungling, you know, Ambassador Stevens saw that he needed more resources.
And because of our last few presidents ago, wanted to make appear that he's conquered the ISIS things, he didn't get the resources that that he needed and what happened.
People got killed.
And then the response on Saturday is, it was like, you need to be, they need to get shot at first before the response.
So the Democratic response to all this stuff is an appeasement for do not attack until the attack the pop.
And so it was just a blush, a blunder, a big blunder, but thankfully our president's alive.
And then this convention is just growing and the unity and this, where we're showing our president.
The president, when he went up and said fight by fight, we all know what our president is capable of.
So he can pull back and realize.
Yeah, by the way, photographers fear that that Trump photo is propaganda.
No, that's called truth and reality.
It's going to wrap things up for today.
We have Hannity tonight, day three, RNC convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll be joined by Eric Trump, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Ron DeSantis tonight, Laura Ingram, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Judge Janine Pirro, Ronnie Jackson, Joe Concha, Paul Manafort.
Set you DVR.
Hannity, 9 Eastern from the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll see you tonight.
Back here tomorrow.
Thank you for making this show possible.
You want smart political talk without the meltdowns?
We got you.
I'm Carol Markowitz.
And I'm Mary Catherine Hamm.
We've been around the block in media and we're doing things differently.
Normally is about real conversations.
Thoughtful, try to be funny, grounded, and no panic.
We'll keep you informed and entertained without ruining your day.
Join us every Tuesday and Thursday, normally, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
I'm Ben Ferguson, and I'm Ted Cruz.
Three times a week, we do our podcast, Verdict with Ted Cruz.
Nationwide, we have millions of listeners.
Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, we break down the news and bring you behind the scenes inside the White House, inside the Senate, inside the United States Supreme Court.
And we cover the stories that you're not getting anywhere else.
We arm you with the facts to be able to know and advocate for the truth with your friends and family.
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