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Nov. 15, 2022 - Sean Hannity Show
32:04
Bibi - November 14th, Hour 3
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Stay right here for our final news roundup and information overload.
All right, news roundup information overload hour 800 nine four one Sean.
If you want to be a part of the program, I know many of you have been anxious, concerned, worried about what's what the ultimate number is going to be in the House.
It's something I've been sharing concern with, but I spent a lot of time all weekend going over numbers with more people than I than I care to even shake a stick at.
We do have some new news on this, by the way.
In the state of New York, uh they have been able to project that Mark Molinero has won his election in the New York uh House District 19.
Uh we're looking at a lot of races out in Arizona, for example.
We have David Schweikert.
Uh that was on the hope list, not on the absolutely needed list for the Republicans over the weekend.
He has won re-election of the U.S. House, Arizona's first congressional district.
Uh and between Arizona 1, 6 and California 41, Oregon 5, uh over at the Cook Report, Dave Wasserman has been saying that it looks like there's no way that the Democratic dreams of of holding a House majority are probably dead.
Uh anyway, here to go over the races and where we are, where it stands, what numbers we're at, who's likely to win, what number we're going to get to.
Uh and it gets it does definitely get complicated.
Uh from the NRC, we have political director uh Mike Thomas with us.
Mike, how are you, sir?
Doing well.
How are you doing, sir?
I'm good.
What's going on?
So uh Republicans are poised to win the majority.
Um even Joe Biden, um, as you probably saw earlier today, admitted that uh Democrats are gonna lose the House.
So uh they're really just delaying the inevitable because I think the mainstream media um wants to diminish the fact that we're gonna flip the house for the third time since 1954.
We're gonna pick up seats in back-to-back cycles, and it looks like now we will be the only check on Joe Biden's uh reckless policies.
So where we stand on the numbers wise, so going just off the associated press, we've got 212 seats that have been called for Republicans right now.
We've got another eight seats that we've identified that we are going to win.
Uh you mentioned many of those.
It's just a matter of time before they are called.
And uh, you know, some of those seats uh let's go over the seats that haven't been called by the AP, but you see that there's no chance you're gonna lose.
Yeah, so so starting with Arizona, as you just mentioned, David Schweiker in Arizona won.
Um the decision desk has called that.
Um every ballot return that we have seen in the last few days has only gained his lead.
Uh another seat in Arizona.
This is Southeast Um Arizona in the Tucson area.
We're up 2100 votes.
We literally just got some more ballots that grew his lead even more.
Um, is that the Ciscomani rates?
Which one are you talking about?
Yeah, that's Arizona 6.
Arizona 6.
Yep, and UCOM base there.
But the decision desk has called both of those Arizona seats for us.
So there's no reason why the AP should not be calling those in our our for us.
Right.
So that's 214.
Just I'm just trying to keep people that have not been following it like we have all weekend, and I know you've been driven crazy by everybody.
Uh then you've got a number of California seats that are leading really heavily towards Republicans that are gonna make a big difference.
Let's go to those.
Yeah, I think that's all we have in Arizona, right?
Arizona one.
Is there any chance Arizona one goes Republican or no?
Oh, that was Schweikert.
He did win that.
Yep.
Yep, he's going to win.
Yeah, David Schweiger, and we're gonna we're gonna flip two seats in Arizona.
Um and then moving to California, we've got four races in California that we feel really confident on that we're going to win.
It's just a matter of time.
Um starting in California uh third, um, this is a seat uh uh basically east of Sacramento.
It's an open seat.
Um we're up to the Kylie seat.
Yeah, this is where uh the Republican Kevin Kylie is running.
Uh we're up six percent right now.
Uh this is a good Republican district.
We have a six percent voter registration advantage, and most of the outstanding ballots to be counted um are in good Republican territory.
So this should be.
Okay.
So all right, now that brings us to two fifteen.
Then we got California twenty seven.
That's the Garcia race, right?
Yep, Mike Garcia in uh Northern Los Angeles.
He's up eleven percent right now.
And his opponent um conceded already.
Um and basically put out a statement that said the math is not there for her.
So we will win California 27, which is Mike Garcia.
Now 41, I know is on the Republican list, and I know there's a lead by Ken Calvert, uh, although it's a a much smaller lead.
Yeah, so he's up two and a half percent right now.
Um, but to give you some perspective of where this race has come.
So after election night, we were down fourteen percent, and now we're up two and a half percent.
So everything that has come in after election has been more and more favorable towards Republicans, and that's the trend that we're seeing across the board in California is the stuff that is coming in later is trending our way because these are people who dropped off their ballots in person um at uh either at their site or at their uh drop box.
And so these are gonna be skewing Republicans.
So his lead continues to grow.
The last four batches of votes that we have gotten, he is he has won every single one, and he's incrementally getting better.
Like Ken Calvert's gonna win.
Let's go to California 45, and that is the Michelle Steele race, and she had a a very healthy lead.
Yeah, so she's up 12,000 votes.
Um there really isn't a path here.
So the Democrats would have to win sixty-one percent of the remaining votes left to be counted.
And the Democrat has yet uh with uh with all these batches that are reported, Demer has yet to break fifty-two percent.
And so uh the the numbers don't look good for the Democrats there.
Michelle Steele is gonna win in California 45.
Let's go back to California in a minute.
In the meantime, let's look at New York uh 22 Brandon Williams uh from my understanding is he's winning that race.
Yes, he's up uh we just got a new batch um of the Well, as a matter of fact, let me just point out that Dave Wasserman over at the Cook Report uh said he says I've seen enough.
Brandon Williams has defeated Francis Connoli in New York's twenty-two.
So it hasn't been called by the AP, but it uh Dave Wasserman is a pretty smart guy.
Yeah, and the the decision desk has called this race as well.
It's just right now, um Francis Cannoll, the Democrat would have to win probably close to 75% of the remaining votes, which is mathematically impossible.
Um with what you are.
So assuming that's all correct, and you include the call for Oregon five, which brought you to 212, um my count is we're now at 218.
And we still have a lot of races to go over, meaning that means Republicans will win control of the U U. S. House of Representatives.
Is that a fair statement?
Correct.
Yes.
All right.
Now you have Schweikert on top of it.
Then you have uh Lauren Boebert, uh, you know, it seemed for a while she was in a tight race.
She seems to be poll have pulled away.
Last count I saw, what was she up by 11, 1200 votes?
Yep, about eleven hundred votes right now.
Okay, and what's left to be counted?
There's there's only about 3,800 ballots left to be counted right now, and a lot of those are election day votes, which are gonna skew in our favor, and a lot of overseas military ballot, which we know will be favorable towards us.
So the Democrat would have to get close to 70% um of the remaining ballots to pull out a win here.
And everything that we have seen re post uh uh come in post-election day, Lauren has been winning um uh everything that has come in.
So that's 219 with Schweiker 220.
Uh now we have let's go back to California.
There are four toss-up races out there.
Um if you look at California 13, it's a very, very tight race.
That's the John Duarte race versus Adam Gray.
Where do you see that race falling out?
Well, we've had a lead, so um right now, but we were down um over the last few days.
So every every batch of returns that has come in has been favorable towards us.
So because it's a dead heat, um, we're only up sixty-four votes right now.
We just need to get fifty-one percent of the remaining.
And the last election up to date we got here, we got fifty-four percent.
So um, as far as I'm concerned, I would rather be us than them right now, but this is gonna be razor thin and it's gonna take a while.
This is in the Central Valley, which uh they historically are one of the slowest counting um areas in the country.
What about California 22?
Uh that's the uh I think it's Vellato, I'm not sure how to say the name properly.
Uh he uh he was up by five the last time I looked, but there still was a lot of outstanding votes.
Yep, he's uh David Valideo, uh he's up five uh five percent right now.
Um there is a lot of good Republican territory um that left and there's one Dem County that um the report so far, um the uh uh uh Salais, who is the Democrat is not pulling the margins he needs to um to get there.
So uh Solace needs to get fifty-four percent, and he is not he is not getting those margins.
So uh David's uh David Valideo is in an extremely strong position um to win re-election.
Uh more with the NRCC political director, uh Michael Tom on the other side.
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All right, as we examine all these house races that have yet to be called, Uh Michael Thomas with us, political director of the NRCC.
We're at 222, 223 in that area.
Um what do you what do you see?
Do you see any other races where there's potential Republican pickups that maybe nobody's paying attention to You know, Oregon 6 has not been um called yet.
This is a in the is the brand new open seat in the uh Portland suburbs.
Um this is uh open seat.
Um Mike Erickson is our candidate there.
That has not been called yet, but um there's still some outstanding vote there that um uh I would say it uh you know it's leans down right now, uh, but there's still a little bit to be counted and we're we're watching that.
And then there are a handful of races across the country that um you know potentially could be in the recount zone um and just we're monitoring a lot of stuff right now.
But I think the long story short is we are going to have a house a house Republican majority, and there's no doubt about that.
Well, I mean that's that that's a big deal just for subpoena power, uh chairmanships, uh power of the purse.
I mean, it makes it it just makes perfect sense.
Um, all right.
So the question is, why is it taking so long?
California has all these races out.
Um, and some of these races clearly there's ground that Democrats can pa possibly mathematically make up.
Why aren't they making these calls?
Uh well, you might be surprised to know that the uh the national media is really hesitant to make calls in favor of Republicans, but any time a Democrat opens up a lead, they call it right away.
So it's it's uh they just hold us to a different standard.
Um, and then California is always historically been one of the lowest counting states um uh in the country, and it's no shocker that it's uh a Democrat run state, and they're very inefficient with their election process.
Pretty amazing.
Let me ask you this last question.
How is it Republicans seem to now will win the popular vote, which they never win?
And all of these congressional races, all 435 districts.
How is that possible?
And it not ha how come we didn't see a bigger margin of victory, considering they won by that much, which doesn't usually happen.
Did did Republicans get defeated in gerrymandering, redistricting?
Did something happen that we didn't pick up?
I think it's two things.
There's last cycle when everybody was expecting House Republicans to lose 15 or 20 seats, we gained 15 seats, and so we only had five seats to go.
And then you throw on top of which means we won all the low-hanging fruit.
And then come this cycle, we had redistricting, and one of the takeaways from redistricting is basically all the swing seats got wiped out.
Um so it really shrunk the middle.
So all the territory that we were playing in, we were playing in almost 20 some uh uh Biden double digit seats.
And so we always knew that we were going to be playing in kind of enemy territory, so to speak, and all these heavy dem seats.
So um I think it's a combination of you know, we picked up a lot of the seats last cycle, um, and then redistricting just wiped out the middle.
Last last question.
How big do exit polls, your reading of the exit polls show that abortion played in this race, and to the extent that this mega mega Republican, you know, our democracy is on the ballot, you know, rant and Republicans are gonna take away Social Security and Medicare.
Was that effective?
I I think I think the abortion issue uh the top issue for Democrats was abortion.
So there's no doubt that that was a motivating uh factor for for Democrats.
Um, but not so much for the middle.
With the middle, all that we saw is it was still crime and cost of living um that uh people in the middle really cared about.
But no doubt the abortion helps the Democrats get their get some of their people out.
Well, we really appreciate you going over all of this with us.
I hope that puts people's minds at ease.
Mike, uh Tom, uh NRCC political director, thanks for taking the time.
I know you've been crunching these numbers.
Have you gotten any sleep the last uh week?
No.
And then you throw a 10-month hold on top of it.
Yeah.
No pressure.
Anyway, congratulations.
Thanks for being with us.
Thanks for taking time.
We appreciate it.
Appreciate it.
Thanks for having me.
25 now to the top of the hour, 800, 941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
Linda, I I think one of the reasons that many feel disappointed.
Now we just well won the House.
Um, if if there's any disappointment of any one race, um, uh and there were a number of disappointments.
I really wished, hoped, I knew it was a 30% chance at best that Lee Zeldon would win in New York.
Okay, he gave it his best shot.
Uh every ad that Kathy Hokel ran in New York had to do with January 6th and abortion.
That's that was it.
Uh you know, look at Tudor Dixon.
I wish she would have done better.
I had not known until late, late, late, that she didn't have any exceptions for rape incest of the mother's life, and in a in a state as blue as Michigan, you can't win with that position, in my view.
The same thing played out in Pennsylvania.
Uh, you know, Doug Mastriano lost by what?
Four was it fourteen points now?
Fourteen?
And you know, Oz only lost by two, but he got ticket splitting in double digits, meaning people voted for the Democrat for governor and switched over to Oz in Pennsylvania.
But when the top of the ticket is voting without any exceptions for abortion in a purple state, if you want to call Pennsylvania purple, you you can't win that election, and you can't overcome or ask people to split their ticket in that with that level of percentage.
It's just a lot of people.
But can we have a real conversation about this for a minute?
Like a real conversation.
No.
No.
Go ahead.
I'm real, I mean, this is where I'm really at with this, and I've been giving this a lot of thought because I live now in the state of Pennsylvania, which is a humongous state.
It's a beautiful state.
It's got all types of people and all ways of life.
And it really is, it is it's just an amazing place, you know, or could be.
And I really feel strongly that a big part of the election problem across the nation is twofold.
One is what you've been talking about ad nauseum, which is there should be one day mail and voting only for you know the military, the infirm, the disabled, right?
People who really can't get out there on election day.
That's that's an exception.
But also, we have a huge problem with financing.
And I just feel like when we look at somebody like Shapiro, who is a terrible, terrible human being, and the words I would attribute to him I can't say on radio, so I'm not going to.
But just putting that aside for one second, you know, this guy's a top cop.
This is the guy who's supposed to protect our kids, our police, our fireman.
He does none of that.
He's got a terrible track record.
He's he's blue, blue, blue, and he's all about Shapiro.
You know, and so, but he had 52 million dollars.
60, over 60% of what he raised was from out-of-state donors.
So for me, it's like so some guy in California is deciding what's going to happen to my little guy in school.
How is that a fair thing?
How is that a thing at all?
And that's happening all over the country.
So, in my opinion, and it is my just my opinion, I feel that there are two huge things that need to happen.
Number one, I think we should do away with all out-of-state financing.
I think you should have to raise money from the commonwealth or from your state only, wherever you live, you're raising from your people, and that's it.
You're not raising from people from New Jersey when you live in Pennsylvania or anywhere else.
That's it.
I also think there needs to be one day and one day only, minus the exceptions that we've already stated.
And to be perfectly frank with you, and this is something that you and I have never agreed on, and we're never going to, is I don't even think there should be a two-party system.
Because there are so many rhinos and so many terrible people within the Republican Party that we have our own problems.
And the the biggest issue is our party does not unite.
We're ready to divide at all times.
The Dems will stick together.
Always, always, always, always.
We don't disagree.
Look, it's I'm just giving an objective analysis.
There's no doubt that when the top of a ticket loses by 14 and and down ballot loses by two, it was able to procure, you know, double digit tickets uh splitting.
I mean, that that doesn't matter.
Listen, people liked Oz.
We liked Oz.
You know, we liked what we liked Oz.
We liked what he and I really feel like with Mastriano, you know, for me, it was like I was in anybody but Shapiro.
I mean, you could have run a dog catcher, you could have run the dog itself, and I would have voted for the dog over Shapiro.
But every day you j you just heard earlier in the program today, the head of the NRCC, and what did he say?
The number one issue on the ballot for Democrats had to do with abortion.
Oz does make exceptions.
That was the difference.
I don't just I don't disagree with you on that.
I think that people are, you know, for whatever reason in this nation, we've lost our morality, we've lost our soul.
We've forgotten.
We're not talking about the morality or the issue.
Oh, I understand that.
Incest and, you know, the you know, the the life of the mother versus the life of the child.
Those are exceptions.
And I agree with you.
It's not tenable.
It's not a politically tenable position.
Agreed.
And I don't think that it's the hill you want to die on on any given day.
You know, and I and I do believe, and I said it from the beginning of the year that these are bellwether states, and this is not a slam dunk, and you better understand they're all swing states.
I mean, we were looking at all right, Florida's no longer a swing state, but Georgia, North Carolina, I think is probably because of this accelerated migration, it's gonna move more solidly red, which is okay, one big pickup for us.
But all of the people that are moving, it's getting harder.
Um to for Republicans to win states like Wisconsin.
Look at how hard Ron Johnson had to work.
They dumped a hundred million dollars on his head, a hundred million dollars on Oz's head, a hundred million dollars on Herschel Walker's head.
You know, J.D. Vance was the target in Ohio, and you know, had he not had such a strong gubernatorial uh candidate into wine that won by what 25 points, you know, he he could have maybe been in trouble.
I don't know.
Um how do we like that's a serious question?
How do we get all of these groups to focus on you run in one state, you get funding from one state, we get rid of the super PAC, we get rid of all of this, and you can get money from the NRCC.
You can get money from an answer I used to give Neil Bortz.
Neil Borts wrote a book about the consumption tax in America.
That literally was brilliant.
Became a number one New York Times bestseller.
And I used to talk to him all the time.
I said, It's a great idea, the numbers work, but it's never gonna happen.
And he would look at me and he said, Well, we'll make it happen.
I'm like, if I if I can make it happen, I'd make it happen.
Um, you noticed people trying to say, yeah, people like Kennedy are out there telling people there's gonna be a wave election.
Uh I didn't.
Let's go back to August of this year.
I said it in this I even said it in January of this year.
Listen.
And then we have the Senate in play.
And if you want to talk about bellwether Senate races, um, I I mean you can't have a bigger bellwether Senate year than this coming year.
I think your admonition is point on.
I don't want anybody getting too cocky.
Um, and I've been saying that the Senate is going to be particularly hard because you have all these bellwether states.
I never want people being overconfident.
I mean, right now, if you would ask me if Republicans win the House and Senate, I say they probably win the House easily.
The Senate is harder because of the states that are in play.
I mean, we're looking at every bellwether state.
You got Florida, you've got Georgia, you've got North and South Carolina, you got New Hampshire, you've got Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, uh, you've got Ohio, you've got Nevada, you got Arizona, you've got Missouri, you've got Colorado, you've got the state of Washington.
None of these states are easy for Republicans to win, and they have to hold in very key states, and then they have to win in other key states.
It's not easy.
Then I look at the Senate and I I get concerned because every state that we're looking at is a bellwether state.
It's it's all on the line, and I don't I don't like to make predictions on elections.
I like to give you a realistic snapshot.
And right now, I cannot say with confidence that the Republicans are gonna take the House and Senate.
I think the odds are much higher for the House.
We've got some tough races in the Senate.
We've got some tough gubernatorial races around the country.
There's still battles going on for these Senate races.
I mean, every every state that I'm mentioning is a bellwether state, uh uh maybe a swing.
It can go either way.
Um I think the Republicans are very well positioned to take the House.
Then you've got if you want bellwether Senate races, this is the year to look at bellwether races.
Okay.
Uh, how many more of these idiot liberal columnists are gonna write that I was saying is gonna be a wave election?
I was telling everybody just the opposite.
And maybe that's why I manage my expectations, I think appropriately.
That does not mean that we should tolerate as a country what has been going on in Arizona, Nevada, California, and Alaska anymore.
We're better than this, and the system has to be fixed.
That's all there is to it.
Florida had a mess in 2000, they fixed it.
They had a problem in the either 2016, I think it was 2016, they had a problem, they fixed that.
And now they've got a system where they can count seven and a half million votes in less than five hours.
Nobody questions the integrity.
Everyone is confident in the results.
It's just so unfair.
Anyway, 800 941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
Uh let's say hi to Jason is in Long Island in New York.
Jason, how are you?
Glad you called, sir.
Hey, Sean, it's a pleasure.
I've been a uh Long Island resident for five years now, and uh uh Nassau and Suffolk have uh turned red over and I'm very proud of that.
Uh to the larger I even have a Republican congressman, if you can believe it.
I haven't had one since Peter King.
It could turn out that Lee Zelda actually won us the House.
Those four seats, that's the difference right there.
And to a larger point, I'm not sure if this is just the less attempt to deny Republicans the spotlight.
We're seeing this drag out and drag on.
Okay.
I was listening to the gentleman before.
There's no reason why these races should not be called, at least by this point.
And I want to see if you think that this is just another attempt by the left to deny Republicans any spotlight whatsoever.
I think Republicans, every every single Republican needs to breathe a sigh of relief if, you know, going over these numbers with the head of the NRCC, and that the Republicans get are getting the House, even Joe Biden is claiming it, that we should be very relieved that that one victory.
We should take it.
We should we should cling on to it.
And then look, there's going to be their own autopsy, their own development.
I think we're going to find that what I'm saying as it relates to accelerated migration is real.
It's going to be something that they have to deal with.
And look, there's a whole variety of other issues over time that we're going to have to figure out as conservatives.
There's some things I can't explain.
If we don't fix the voting system, um why would we expose how do we have voting in 90 days out in voting in perpetuity?
I think we need to get the rules fair.
I would if I had my way, paper ballots, same day voting, election day, a holiday.
You have partisans watch the vote counting, and you watch the vote votes taking place.
It would be that simple.
And I think also we got to be a little smarter.
Who we who we think you know can win.
Sometimes that may not be the person you fully agree with.
You can stand on principle to a point, but at some point it got to be practical.
That makes it do you think we've seen the last election that will ever be decided on election day 2016 will probably be the last election that we even know who won that night.
Maybe.
And I'm talking uh and and this is off-year elections.
I think this is the way it's going to be going forward, and that's scary, Sean.
It's a pleasure.
Thank you very much.
Good luck to you, sir.
All right, my friend.
Glad you called.
Thank you.
800 941 Sean.
If you want to be a part of the program here, uh let's say hi to Mike in California.
Mike, how are you?
What's going on?
Oh, great, Sean.
Great, Sean.
Just uh two quick points.
One is I agree with you that people should calm down and take a deep breath.
We are gonna win the House.
And even though it's by a small margin, um, the Democrats, the last two years only had a small margin, and they had tremendous power.
And we will too.
It's a much bigger deal, even with a small margin.
Then the second point is have a very easy solution to the energy crisis.
The oil companies simply need to hire Hunter Biden on their board of directors, and they'll be able to drill and pump as much as they want.
Listen, I think if we were smart, we'd start becoming energy independent tomorrow.
Joe Biden's answer last week is what are you gonna change, Joe?
Nothing.
So they're gonna double down on stupid.
I'll tell you, look, he he doesn't have the strategic petroleum reserves to play with this time.
And by the way, don't think that wasn't a factor.
It definitely works when you increase the supply of energy on the world market to the extent he did by putting our national security at risk and rating the str strategic petroleum reserves, lowering the cost, you know, because your your great emergency is that Republicans are gonna win the election.
It it paid off for them.
And you know, going out there mega mega and democracies on the ballot and scaring old people, you're not gonna lose your Social Security and Medicare.
You know, there's a reason they use these tactics every election, because they're effective, unfortunately, even though it's a big lie.
Very, very true.
Very, very true.
Just bought votes, basically.
Listen, let not your heart be troubled.
Things are a lot different today than they were before this election, and that's great.
All right, that's gonna wrap things up for tonight.
Nine Eastern Hannity on the Fox News channel.
We're gonna go into all the numbers to show the Republicans will in fact get the House.
Uh, we'll be joined by Michael Tom of the NRCC.
Ryan Sprevis will join us.
We'll check in with Mike Pence.
He will join us tonight.
Clay Travis, Adam Carolla, and much, much more.
Nine Eastern Hannity, Fox News will also update you on the latest out of Arizona and California and Alaska and Nevada and everywhere else.
It's a mess.
Nine Eastern Tonight, Hannity Fox.
We'll see you then back here tomorrow.
Thank you for making this show possible.
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