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Nov. 15, 2022 - Sean Hannity Show
32:02
Bibi - November 14th, Hour 3
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Stay right here for our final news roundup and information overload.
All right, news roundup, information overload hour, 800-941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
I know many of you have been anxious, concerned, worried about what the ultimate number is going to be in the House.
It's something I've been sharing concern with, but I spent a lot of time all weekend going over numbers with more people than I care to even shake a stick at.
We do have some new news on this, by the way.
In the state of New York, they have been able to project that Mark Molinaro has won his election in the New York House District 19.
We're looking at a lot of races out in Arizona, for example.
We have David Schweikert.
That was on the hope list, not on the absolutely needed list for the Republicans over the weekend.
He has won re-election to the U.S. House, Arizona's first congressional district.
And between Arizona 1, 6, and California, 41, Oregon, 5, over at the Cook Report, Dave Wasserman has been saying that it looks like there's no way that the Democratic dreams of holding a House majority are probably dead.
Anyway, here to go over the races and where we are, where it stands, what numbers we're at, who's likely to win, what number we're going to get to.
And it does definitely get complicated.
From the NRCC, we have political director Mike Thomas with us.
Mike, how are you, sir?
I'm doing well.
How are you doing, sir?
I'm good.
What's going on?
So Republicans are poised to win the majority.
Even Joe Biden, as you probably saw earlier today, admitted that Democrats are going to lose the House.
So they're really just delaying the inevitable because I think the mainstream media wants to diminish the fact that we're going to flip the House for the third time since 1954.
We're going to pick up seats in back-to-back cycles.
And it looks like now we will be the only check on Joe Biden's reckless policies.
So where we stand on the numbers-wise, so going just off the Associated Press, we've got 212 seats that have been called for Republicans right now.
We've got another eight seats that we've identified that we are going to win.
You mentioned many of those.
It's just a matter of time before they are called.
And, you know, some of those seats.
Let's go over the seats that haven't been called by the AP, but you see that there's no chance you're going to lose.
Yeah, so starting with Arizona, as you just mentioned, David Schweiker and Arizona won.
The decision desk has called that.
Every ballot return that we have seen in the last few days has only gained his lead.
Another seat in Arizona, this is southeast Arizona in the Tucson area.
We're up 2,100 votes, and we literally just got some more ballots that grew his lead even more.
Is that the Siscomani race?
Which one are you talking about?
Yeah, one.
That's Arizona 6.
Arizona 6.
Yep.
And Tucson base there.
But the decision desk has called both of those Arizona seats for us.
So there's no reason why the AP should not be calling those for us.
Right.
So that's 214.
I'm just trying to keep people that have not been following it like we have all weekend.
And I know you've been driven crazy by everybody.
Then you've got a number of California seats that are leaning really heavily towards Republicans that are going to make a big difference.
Let's go to those.
I think that's all we have in Arizona, right?
Arizona one.
Is there any chance Arizona one goes Republican or no?
Oh, that was Schweikert.
He did win that.
Yes.
Yep, he's going to win.
Yeah, David Schweiker.
We're going to flip two seats in Arizona.
And then moving to California, we've got four races in California that we feel really confident on that we're going to win.
It's just a matter of time.
Starting in California third, this is a seat basically east of Sacramento.
It's an open seat.
We're up.
This is the Kiley seat?
Yeah, this is where the Republican Kevin Kiley is running.
We're up 6% right now.
This is a good Republican district.
We have a 6% voter registration advantage.
And most of the outstanding ballots to be counted are in good Republican territory.
So this should be.
He has a very healthy lead there.
Okay.
So, all right, now that brings us to 215.
Then we got California 27.
That's the Garcia race, right?
Yep, Mike Garcia in northern Los Angeles.
He's up 11% right now.
And his opponent conceded already and basically put out a statement that said the math is not there for her.
So we will win California 27, which is Mike Garcia.
Now, 41, I know, is on the Republican list.
And I know there's a lead by Ken Calvert, although it's a much smaller lead.
Yeah, so he's up 2.5% right now.
But to give you some perspective of where this race has come, so after election night, we were down 14%, and now we're up 2.5%.
So everything that has come in after election has been more and more favorable towards Republicans.
And that's the trend that we're seeing across the board in California is the stuff that is coming in later is trending our way because these are people who dropped off their ballots in person or at their site or at their Dropbox.
And so these are going to be skewing Republicans.
So his lead continues to grow.
The last four batches of votes that we have gotten, he has won every single one, and he's incrementally getting better.
Like Ken Calvert's going to win.
Let's go to California 45, and that is the Michelle Steele race, and she had a very healthy lead.
Yeah, so she's up 12,000 votes.
There really isn't a path here.
So the Democrats would have to win 61% of the remaining votes left to be counted.
And the Democrat has yet, with all these batches that are reported, Demerhe has yet to break 52%.
And so the numbers don't look good for the Democrats there.
Michelle Steele is going to win in California 45.
Let's go back to California in a minute.
In the meantime, let's look at New York 22, Brandon Williams.
From my understanding, is he's winning that race.
Yes, he's up.
We just got a new batch.
Well, as a matter of fact, let me just point out that Dave Wasserman over at the Cook Report said he says, I've seen enough.
Brandon Williams has defeated Francis Canoli in New York's 22.
So it hasn't been called by the AP, but Dave Wasserman is a pretty smart guy.
Yeah, and the decision desk has called this race as well.
It's just right now, Francis Canol, the Democrat, would have to win probably close to 75% of the remaining vote, which is mathematically impossible.
So assuming that's all correct and you include the call for Oregon 5, which brought you to 212, my count is we're now at 218, and we still have a lot of races to go over, meaning that means Republicans will win control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Is that a fair statement?
Correct.
Yes.
All right.
Now you have Schweikert on top of it.
Then you have Lauren Boebert.
You know, it seemed for a while she was in a tight race.
She seems to have pulled away.
Last count I saw, what was she up by 1,1, 1,200 votes?
Yep, about 1,100 votes right now.
Okay, and what's left to be counted?
There's only about 3,800 ballots left to be counted right now.
And a lot of those are Election Day votes, which are going to skew in our favor, and a lot of overseas military ballot, which we know will be favorable towards us.
So the Democrat would have to get close to 70% of the remaining ballots to pull out a win here.
And everything that we have seen come in post-election day, Lauren has been winning everything that has come in.
So that's 219 with Schweiker 220.
Now we have, let's go back to California.
There are four toss-up races out there.
If you look at California 13, it's a very, very tight race.
That's the John Duarte race versus Adam Gray.
Where do you see that race falling out?
Well, we've had a lead right now, but we were down over the last few days.
So every batch of returns that has come in has been favorable towards us.
So because it's a dead heat, we're only up 64 votes right now.
We just need to get 51% of the remaining.
And the last election update we got here, we got 54%.
So as far as I'm concerned, I would rather be us than them right now, but this is going to be razor thin and it's going to take a while.
This is in the Central Valley, which they historically are one of the slowest counting areas in the country.
What about California 22?
That's the, I think it's Velado.
I'm not sure how to say the name properly.
He was up by five the last time I looked, but there still was a lot of outstanding votes.
Yep, he's David Valadeo.
He's up 5% right now.
There is a lot of good Republican territory left.
And there's one Dem County that the report so far, Solace, who is the Democrat, is not pulling the margins he needs to to get there.
So Solace needs to get 54% and he is not getting those margins.
So David Valadeo is in an extremely strong position to win re-election.
More with the NRCC political director, Michael Tom on the other side.
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All right, as we examine all these house races that have yet to be called, Michael Thomas with us, political director of the NRCC.
We're at 222, 223 in that area.
What do you see?
Do you see any other races where there's potential Republican pickups that maybe nobody's paying attention to?
You know, Oregon 6 has not been called yet.
This is the brand new open seat in the Portland suburbs.
This is an open seat.
Mike Erickson is our candidate there.
That has not been called yet, but there's still some outstanding vote there that I would say, you know, it leans them right now, but there's still a little bit to be counted, and we're watching that.
And then there are a handful of races across the country that potentially could be in the recount zone and just we're monitoring a lot of stuff right now.
But I think the long story short is we are going to have a House Republican majority, and there's no doubt about that.
Well, I mean, that's a big deal just for subpoena power, chairmanships, power of the purse.
I mean, it just makes perfect sense.
All right.
So the question is, why is it taking so long?
California has all these races out.
And some of these races, clearly, this ground that Democrats can't possibly mathematically make up.
Why aren't they making these calls?
Well, you might be surprised to know that the national media is really hesitant to make calls in favor of Republicans, but anytime a Democrat opens up a league, they call it right away.
So they just hold us to a different standard.
And then California has always historically been one of the lowest counting states in the country.
And it's no shocker that it's a Democrat-run state, and they're very inefficient with their election process.
And pretty amazing.
Let me ask you this last question.
How is it Republicans seem to now win the popular vote, which they never win?
And all of these congressional races, all 435 districts.
How is that possible?
And how come we didn't see a bigger margin of victory, considering they won by that much, which doesn't usually happen?
Did Republicans get defeated in gerrymandering, redistricting?
Did something happen that we didn't pick up?
I think it's two things.
There's last cycle when everybody was expecting House Republicans to lose 15 or 20 seats.
We gained 15 seats.
And so we only had five seats to go.
And then you throw on top of, which means we won all the low-hanging fruits.
And then come this cycle, we had redistricting.
And one of the takeaways from redistricting is basically all the swing seats got wiped out.
And so it really shrunk the middle.
So all the territory that we were playing in, we were playing in almost 20-some Biden double-digit seats.
And so we always knew that we were going to be playing in kind of enemy territory, so to speak, and all these heavy damp seats.
So I think it's a combination of, you know, we picked up a lot of the seats last cycle, and then redistricting just wiped out the middle.
Last, last question.
How big do exit polls, your reading of the exit polls show that abortion played in this race?
And to the extent that this mega, mega Republican, you know, our democracy is on the ballot, you know, rant and Republicans are going to take away Social Security and Medicare.
Was that effective?
I think the abortion issue, the top issue for Democrats was abortion.
So there's no doubt that that was a motivating factor for Democrats, but not so much for the middle.
With the middle, all that we saw is it was still crime and cost of living that people in the middle really cared about.
But no doubt the abortion helped the Democrats get some of their people out.
Well, we really appreciate you going over all of this with us.
I hope that puts people's minds at ease.
Mike, Tom, NRCC political director, thanks for taking the time.
I know you've been crunching these numbers.
Have you gotten any sleep the last week?
No.
And then you throw a 10-month hold on top of it.
Yeah.
No pressure.
Anyway, congratulations.
Thanks for being with us.
Thanks for taking time.
We appreciate it.
Appreciate it.
Thanks for having me.
All right, 25 now to the top of the hour, 800-941 Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
Linda, I think one of the reasons that many feel disappointed, now we just won the House.
If there's any disappointment of any one race, and there were a number of disappointment, I really wished, hoped, I knew it was a 30% chance at best that Lee Zeldon would win in New York.
Okay, he gave it his best shot.
Every ad that Kathy Hochl ran in New York had to do with January 6th and abortion.
That was it.
You know, look at Tudor Dixon.
I wish she would have done better.
I had not known until late, late, late that she didn't have any exceptions for rape, incest, or the mother's life.
And in a state as blue as Michigan, you can't win with that position, in my view.
The same thing played out in Pennsylvania.
You know, Doug Mastriano lost by what, was it 14 points now?
14.
And, you know, Oz only lost by two, but he got ticket splitting in double digits, meaning people voted for the Democrat for governor and switched over to Oz in Pennsylvania.
But when the top of the ticket is voting without any exceptions for abortion in a purple state, if you want to call Pennsylvania purple, you can't win that election and you can't overcome or ask people to split their ticket with that level of percentage.
But can we have a real conversation about this for a minute?
Like a real conversation?
No.
No.
Go ahead.
I mean, this is where I'm really at with this, and I've been giving this a lot of thought because I live now in the state of Pennsylvania, which is a humongous state.
It's a beautiful state.
It's got all types of people and all ways of life.
And it really is, it's just an amazing place, you know, or could be.
And I really feel strongly that a big part of the election problem across the nation is twofold.
One is what you've been talking about ad nauseum, which is there should be one day mail-in voting only for, you know, the military, the infirm, the disabled, right?
People who really can't get out there on election day.
That's, that's an exception.
But also, we have a huge problem with financing.
And I just feel like when we look at somebody like Shapiro, who is a terrible, terrible human being, and the words I would attribute to him, I can't say on radio, so I'm not going to.
But just putting that aside for one second, you know, this guy's a top cop.
This is the guy who's supposed to protect our kids, our police, our fireman.
He does none of that.
He's got a terrible track record.
He's blue, blue, blue, and he's all about Shapiro, you know, and so, but he had $52 million.
60, over 60% of what he raised was from out-of-state donors.
So for me, it's like, so some guy in California is deciding what's going to happen to my little guy in school.
How is that a fair thing?
How is that a thing at all?
And that's happening all over the country.
So in my opinion, and it is my just my opinion, I feel that there are two huge things that need to happen.
Number one, I think we should do away with all out-of-state financing.
I think you should have to raise money from the Commonwealth or from your state only.
Wherever you live, you're raising from your people, and that's it.
You're not raising from people from New Jersey when you live in Pennsylvania or anywhere else.
That's it.
I also think there needs to be one day and one day only, minus the exceptions that we've already stated.
And to be perfectly frank with you, and this is something that you and I have never agreed on and we're never going to, is I don't even think there should be a two-party system because there are so many rhinos and so many terrible people within the Republican Party that we have our own problems.
And the biggest issue is our party does not unite.
We're ready to divide at all times.
The Dems will stick together.
There's always a circular fire.
Always, always, always, always.
We don't disagree.
Look, I'm just giving an objective analysis.
There's no doubt that when the top of a ticket loses by 14 and down ballot loses by two, it was able to procure, you know, double-digit tickets splitting.
I mean, that doesn't.
Listen, people liked Oz.
We liked Oz.
You know, we liked what we liked Oz.
We liked what he, and I really feel like with Mastriano, you know, for me, it was like I wasn't anybody but Shapiro.
I mean, you could have run a dog catcher, you could have run the dog itself, and I would have voted for the dog over Shapiro.
But every day.
You just heard earlier in the program today, the head of the NRCC.
And what did he say?
The number one issue on the ballot for Democrats had to do with abortion.
Oz does make exceptions.
That was the difference.
I don't disagree with you on that.
I think that people are, you know, for whatever reason in this nation, we've lost our morality.
We've lost our soul.
We've forgotten.
We're not talking about the morality or the issue.
Oh, I understand that.
We're talking about the policy.
Incest and, you know, the life of the mother versus the life of the child.
Those are exceptions.
And I agree with you.
It's not tenable.
It's not a politically tenable position.
Agreed.
And I don't think that it's the hill you want to die on on any given day.
You know, and I do believe, and I said it from the beginning of the year, that these are bellwether states, and this is not a slam dunk.
And you better understand they're all swing states.
I mean, we were looking at, all right, Florida is no longer a swing state, but Georgia, North Carolina, I think is probably because of this accelerated migration.
It's going to move more solidly red, which is okay, one big pickup for us.
But all of the people that are moving, it's getting harder for Republicans to win states like Wisconsin.
Look at how hard Ron Johnson had to work.
They dumped $100 million on his head, $100 million on Oz's head, $100 million on Herschel Walker's head.
You know, JD Vance was the target in Ohio.
And, you know, had he not had such a strong gubernatorial candidate into wine that won by 25 points, you know, he could have maybe been in trouble.
I don't know.
How do we change it?
How do we, like, that's a serious question.
How do we get all of these groups to focus on you run in one state, you get funding from one state, we get rid of the super PAC, we get rid of all of this.
And you can get money from the NRCC.
You can get money from.
I'm going to tell you an answer I used to give Neil Bortz.
Neil Bortz wrote a book about the consumption tax in America that literally was brilliant, became a number one New York Times bestseller.
And I used to talk to him all the time.
I said, it's a great idea.
The numbers work.
It's never going to happen.
And he would look at me and he'd say, well, make it happen.
I'm like, if I can make it happen, I'd make it happen.
Have you noticed people trying to say, yeah, people like Hannity out there telling people there's going to be a wave election?
I didn't.
Let's go back to August of this year.
I said it in this.
I even said it in January of this year.
Listen.
And then we have the Senate in play.
And if you want to talk about bellwether Senate races, I mean, you can't have a bigger bellwether Senate year than this coming year.
I think your admonition is point on.
I don't want anybody getting too cocky.
And I've been saying that the Senate is going to be particularly hard because you have all these bellwether states.
I never want people being overconfident.
I mean, right now, if you would ask me if Republicans win the House and Senate, I'd say they probably win the House easily.
The Senate is harder because of the states that are in play.
I mean, we're looking at every bellwether state.
You've got Florida, you've got Georgia, you've got North and South Carolina, you've got New Hampshire, you've got Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, you've got Ohio, you've got Nevada, you've got Arizona, you've got Missouri, you've got Colorado, you've got the state of Washington.
None of these states are easy for Republicans to win, and they have to hold in very key states, and then they have to win in other key states.
It's not easy.
Then I look at the Senate and I get concerned because every state that we're looking at is a bellwether state.
It's all on the line, and I don't like to make predictions on elections.
I like to give you a realistic snapshot.
And right now, I cannot say with confidence that the Republicans are going to take the House and Senate.
I think the odds are much higher for the House.
We've got some tough races in the Senate.
We've got some tough gubernatorial races around the country.
There's still battles going on for these Senate races.
I mean, every state that I'm mentioning is a bellwether state.
Maybe a swing.
It can go either way.
I think the Republicans are very well positioned to take the House.
Then you've got, if you want bellwether Senate races, this is the year to look at bellwether races.
Okay.
How many more of these idiot liberal columnists are going to write that I was saying is going to be a wave election?
I was telling everybody just the opposite.
And maybe that's why I manage my expectations, I think, appropriately.
That does not mean that we should tolerate as a country what has been going on in Arizona, Nevada, California, and Alaska anymore.
We're better than this, and the system has to be fixed.
That's all there is to it.
Florida had a mess in 2000.
They fixed it.
They had a problem in either 2016, I think it was 2016, they had a problem.
They fixed that.
And now they've got a system where they can count 7.5 million votes in less than five hours.
Nobody questions the integrity.
Everyone is confident in the results.
It's just so unfair.
Anyway, 800-941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program.
Let's say hi to Jason is in Long Island in New York.
Jason, how are you?
Glad you called, sir.
Hey, Sean, it's a pleasure.
I've been a Long Island resident for five years now, and Nassau and Suffolk have turned red over, and I'm very proud of that.
To the larger point.
I even have a Republican congressman, if you can believe it.
I haven't had one since Peter King.
It could turn out that Lee Zeldon actually won us the House.
Those four seats, that's the difference right there.
And to a larger point, I'm not sure if this is just the left's attempt to deny Republicans the spotlight.
We're seeing this drag out and drag on.
Okay, I was listening to the gentleman before.
There's no reason why these races should not be called, at least by this point.
And I want to see if you think that this is just another attempt by the left to deny Republicans any spotlight whatsoever.
I think Republicans, every single Republican needs to breathe a sigh of relief if, you know, going over these numbers with the head of the NRCC and that Republicans are getting the House, even Joe Biden is claiming it, that we should be very relieved at that one victory.
We should take it.
We should.
cling on to it.
And then look, there's going to be their own autopsy, their own development.
I think we're going to find that what I'm saying as it relates to accelerated migration is real.
It's going to be something that they have to deal with.
And look, there's a whole variety of other issues over time that we're going to have to figure out as conservatives.
There's some things I can't explain.
If we don't fix the voting system, why would we export?
How do we have voting in 90 days out in voting in perpetuity?
I think we need to get the rules fair.
If I had my way, paper ballots, same-day voting, election day a holiday.
You have partisans watch the vote counting and you watch the votes taking place.
It would be that simple.
And I think also we got to be a little smarter who we think can win.
Sometimes that may not be the person you fully agree with.
You can stand on principle to a point, but at some point, it's got to be practical.
That makes sense.
Absolutely.
Do you think we've seen the last election that will ever be decided on Election Day?
2016 will probably be the last election that we even know who won that night.
Maybe.
And I'm talking, and this is off-year elections.
I think this is the way it's going to be going forward, and that's scary, Sean.
It's a pleasure.
Thank you very much.
Good luck to you, sir.
All right, my friend.
Glad you called.
Thank you.
800-941, Sean, if you want to be a part of the program here.
Let's say hi to Mike in California.
Mike, how are you?
What's going on?
Oh, great, Sean.
Great, Sean.
And just two quick points.
One is I agree with you that people should calm down and take a deep breath.
We are going to win the House.
And even though it's by a small margin, the Democrats, the last two years, only had a small margin, and they had tremendous power.
And we will, too.
It's a much bigger deal, even with a small margin.
Then the second point is I have a very easy solution to the energy crisis.
The oil companies simply need to hire Hunter Biden on their board of directors, and they'll be able to drill and pump as much as they want.
Listen, I think if we were smart, we'd start becoming energy independent tomorrow.
Joe Biden's answer last week is, what are you going to change, Joe?
Nothing.
So they're going to double down on stupid.
I'll tell you, look, he doesn't have the strategic petroleum reserves to play with this time.
And by the way, don't think that wasn't a factor.
It definitely works when you increase the supply of energy on the world market to the extent he did by putting our national security at risk and raiding the strategic petroleum reserves, lowering the cost, you know, because your great emergency is that Republicans are going to win the election.
It paid off for them.
And, you know, going out there mega MAGA and democracies on the ballot and scaring old people, you're not going to lose your Social Security and Medicare.
You know, there's a reason they use these tactics every election because they're effective, unfortunately, even though it's a big lie.
Very, very true.
Very, very true.
Just bought votes, basically.
Listen, let not your heart be troubled.
Things are a lot different today than they were before this election, and that's great.
All right, that's going to wrap things up for tonight.
9 Eastern Hannity on the Fox News channel.
We're going to go into all the numbers to show the Republicans will, in fact, get the House.
We'll be joined by Michael Tom of the NRCC.
Reince Privus will join us.
We'll check in with Mike Pence.
He will join us tonight.
Clay Travis, Adam Carolla, and much, much more.
Nine Eastern, Hannity Fox News.
We'll also update you on the latest data of Arizona and California and Alaska and Nevada and everywhere else.
It's a mess.
Nine Eastern tonight, Hannity Fox.
We'll see you then back here tomorrow.
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