Sean kicks off the show with a recap of President Biden's G20 summit visit... it's clear that President Biden is not up to the job but the risk to our country is real!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We do have the House, and we're going to go over all the numbers with you.
In spite of, I know Democrats and their wish list, and they've been hoping and praying and spinning like a like a top in the hopes that they can convince people that they really have a shot there.
They don't.
And we're going to go through all of these numbers because they matter.
And getting there is going to be what's important.
And I think it's just important to understand.
Most people don't have the time to go over, you know, all the races that are going to matter and ultimately decide the balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Look, what they've been looking at, Republicans now are at 212, and there is Arizona 6.
And that doesn't seem like it's going to be a problem for Republicans in California 3, California 27, 41, 45.
Those look to be like there's going to be leads.
Oregon 5 just got called for the Republican Laurie Chavez Dermer.
Brandon Williams in New York.
I'll get to some of that in a second.
Schweiker just got called by uh one particular group.
But anyway, uh first start in Oregon.
We got the call that Laurie Chavez, the reamer, that got us to 212.
This is over the weekend.
And then if you look at, for example, California 41, Riverside County added 16,080 868 votes, and they broke 5644 for Calvert, and he has a significant 4,000 plus lead there, uh, with only 41,000 ballots left, and they expect that they continue to be positive, you know, from what they know about the ballots out there.
Uh, so that's good for the Republicans.
Um, there was already one decision desk headquarters made it to call for Schweikert, uh Republican winning house, uh, the house race in Arizona's first congressional district.
That was made earlier today.
Now, the Cook Report kind of slants a little left.
Um, and they actually put Dave Wasserman who knows these numbers backwards and forwards.
If you follow him on Twitter, uh Sweet Baby James does for me.
Anyway, Arizona won, Arizona 6, California 41.
He says dreams of a how the House uh Democrat Democrats in the House holding the majority probably died.
Uh, and then he tweeted out even further the new math for Republicans and either called or most likely Republicans, you know, brings them to anywhere from 220 to 224.
Arizona one, Arizona six, California 327, 41, 45.
Uh, looks like Lauren Boebert will hang on in her race.
New York 22 and Oregon 5, which we had mentioned earlier, and there's a couple of toss-ups to add there as well that might actually pad their lead a little bit.
Uh Brandon Williams uh seems to have been called by the Cook Report to have defeated Francis Cannol or Cannole in uh New York's 22nd district, and also Mark Molinari.
I don't even know if that was on the list.
He was a Democrat to Republican flip as well.
So, you know, the first thing I want to say to everybody is everyone needs to take a deep breath.
I'm watching and listening to people, and I'm like, you people are out of your mind.
Um there's reasons for the way the war why people feel the way that they feel that make a hell of a lot of sense.
By the way, this also in the New York Times is even predicting the Republicans now will win the House, and they're predicting a minimum of 221 seats.
Um anyway, so that that part of it is not really in dispute anymore.
And I know many have been worried over it.
I probably spent most of the weekend going over every race, every number, you know, all weekend long, so I would be prepared for today.
And I think that some I think we got to go over some of the expectations that people had in all of this, and I think how people's expectations got a little out of whack.
And, you know, I understand exuberance sometimes, and and there are good reasons for some of this.
But I don't want to minimize what Republicans winning the House is here.
It's critical.
That means you get the power of chairmanships.
That means you get to set the agenda in the House.
That means you get the power of subpoena.
That means that all those investigations from the origins of the COVID-19 virus uh to zero experience hunter and his implication of his own father, uh concern uh it's it's enormously the difference between being in power and out of power is massive.
It will be a critical check on Joe Biden and his agenda.
Now Herschel Walker's race means a lot.
And I'm going to tell you my theory.
I would not at all be surprised if Herschel Walker wins in Georgia.
And you see somebody like Joe Manchin say, you know what?
I've had it with this party.
After Joe Biden's comments about the coal industry in the days leading up to the election and his comments about not having any uh oil exploration in the country, and Joe Manchin publicly rebuking Biden before the election.
And then, of course, after they pressured Biden, remember, when Joe Manchin was standing up against the Democrats, he was at like a 70% approval rating in West Virginia.
As soon as he gave in to the inflation quote reduction act or the tax the poor middle class and people on fixed income act, his ratings plummeted in the state of West Virginia to like 38.
You know, don't think that, you know, after Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden, remember they made a deal with Manchet, and they said if you go along with this bill, we will get you a pipeline that you've been asking for, and now they've they basically have said to him, sorry, we don't have the votes, we can't get it done.
Now, if I'm Joe Manchin and my party is against the single biggest driver of the economy in my state, I'm going to be looking at the other party and possibly switch parties.
So something like that I could absolutely see happening.
Um I'm not calling it, I'm just saying it's it's a possibility.
Um look, and and I'm getting a little sick, Linda.
How many times have people said people like Hannity were out there telling the people that this is going to be a wave election?
Did I at any point ever say that?
No, you said the exact opposite, actually.
And and how many times do you think over the last year, starting in January, have I said it?
Don't get complacent, don't get comfortable.
It's not over till it's over.
You have to vote.
I mean, how hard the Senate is going to be to win.
They're all swing states, bellwether states.
Every single day.
Every day.
All right, you put together a montage of it.
Let's play it.
Let's remind you.
I think your admonition is point on.
I don't want anybody getting too cocky.
Um, and I've been saying that the Senate is going to be particularly hard because you have all these bellwether states.
I never want people being overconfident.
I mean, right now, if you would ask me if Republicans win the House and Senate, I'd say they probably win the House easily.
The Senate is harder because of the states that are in play.
I mean, we're looking at every bellwether state.
You got Florida, you've got Georgia, you've got North and South Carolina, you got New Hampshire, you've got Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, uh, you've got Ohio, you've got Nevada, you got Arizona, you've got Missouri, you've got Colorado, you've got the state of Washington.
None of these states are easy for Republicans to win, and they have to hold in very key states, and then they have to win in other key states.
It's not easy.
Then I look at the Senate and I I get concerned.
Because every state that we're looking at is a bellwether state.
It's it's all on the line.
And I don't I don't like to make predictions on elections.
I like to give you a realistic snapshot.
And right now, I cannot say with confidence that the Republicans are going to take the House and Senate.
I think the odds are much higher for the House.
We've got some tough races in the Senate.
We've got some tough gubernatorial races around the country.
There's still battles going on for these Senate races.
I mean, every every state that I'm mentioning is a bellwether state, uh, uh maybe a swing.
It can go either way.
Now, I've I'm not mad at people that did have a more confident view or optimistic view on things.
I'm not at all, and they're actually really intelligent uh reasons that people had a right to be the problem is it wasn't just optimist optimism, is it was it was exuberance to the point where you know you can cause complacency if people begin to think that things are gonna go their way.
Um historical trends, first uh term presidents, midterm elections usually leave.
You know, something else happened in last year's midterms.
If you remember, we were supposed to lose a lot of seats, and I think we picked up 14.
So there might have been a lot fewer seats available on the map anyway.
The other thing that we're gonna have to get to the bottom of is this issue of redistricting and gerrymandering and whether or not Republicans were played and and didn't do a good job on that part.
I'd like to know the answer to it.
Um I did say a wave is possible based on the conditions of the economy and the borders in Afghanistan and energy costs, etc.
But it but it didn't guarantee it.
Then you have other issues that had an impact on this election.
Um in some cases it was poor candidate selection.
And uh what the number one issue for Democrats was abortion.
Two perfect examples, though I'll tell you three states that were impacted by the abortion issue.
Every ad that Kathy Hokel ran in New York State said that he was going to end abortion.
It wasn't true, but every ad said it.
And because he was personally pro-life, I don't think he got a good he did a good job in the campaign.
He came as far as he can come.
But I think an ad that would have said I am not going to change the abortion laws probably would have helped Lee Zeldon uh even further.
Could he have won?
There's no way I could tell.
Um, but I can tell you it had a big impact in the Pennsylvania race because what the governed gubernatorial candidate, top of the ticket, Maastriano had made no exceptions for rape incest of the mother's life, lost by 14 in a in a purple state like Pennsylvania.
Now, some people said, well, I should have won.
Well, Oz was able to, and he did make the exceptions.
He was able to get, you know, double digit ticket splitting in Pennsylvania, which is almost unheard of, meaning people would vote for the Democrat for governor and vote for him, the Republican for Senate, to get double digits, him only losing by two versus the gubernatorial candidate, you know, it says a lot.
I mean, you know, look at Ohio.
I'm happy about JD Vance's win, but he won by 6.7, and the wine last time I checked, won by 25.
And so there's certainly, you know, issues involving a lot of these things.
I Tudor Dixon was a phenomenal candidate.
And I didn't realize till very late that she made no exceptions.
That's not good.
So in that sense, you know, we have to we have to be realistic.
If we're gonna play in states that tend to be purple or blue, you're gonna have to make adjustments that you wouldn't otherwise want to make.
Uh otherwise you put yourself in a position where, especially after the Dobbs decision, that you have no chance at all.
Um, to the extent that the Democrats' closing message about mega mega democracy in jeopardy, uh abortion is going to be outlawed, Republicans uh they lied about Republicans wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare, how effective those lies were, I don't know.
Artificially reducing the cost of gasoline by artificially increasing the world supply by compromising national security and releasing the strategic petroleum uh reserves.
I guess politically you can tip your hat to Biden, but it did put our national security at risk in the process.
We're now at the lowest level in 50 years.
Um I think for some reason uh people voted even against their very best interest just because the country's so divided, they there was no open-mindedness at all.
I mean, uh if it was a D, you're voting D. If it was an R, you're gonna vote R. But then it raises something I I cannot wrap my mind around is how do Republicans win five million more votes than Democrats in terms because we never win the popular vote and only come away with a sm a smaller victory in the House, not a larger victory in the House.
That doesn't make sense.
Um and then of course, my theory on accelerated migration.
If we don't pay attention to this, and the most important thing is if you're happy with what's gone on and is going on in Arizona, if you think this is this is a good system, if you think what happens and has been happening in Nevada is a good system, and if you think the fact we can't get congressional races counted in California, if you think this is a good system, and the disaster of Alaska, we may not know until Thanksgiving, so we are told.
If you think this is a good system, it's not.
You know, 90 days of voting before an election, this has to stop.
Not having voter ID.
I didn't have to show my ID when I voted in New York.
This that's insanity.
There's gotta be some level of standards.
My choice would be election day is a holiday, and people can vote absentee if they're infirmed, if they're gonna be out of town, if they're in the military.
Otherwise, we have partisan observers on election day watch the voting, and then later after the polls close, watch the vote counting.
And then we all get the answer that night, like Canada does and Great Britain does and France does.
All paper ballots.
Because you know, how if you even if the even if Republicans win in Arizona, how could you be a Democrat and say, wow, I have a lot of that's there's so much integrity in this system.
What, 50,000 votes here, 50,000 votes there?
Marco Rubio said it best.
They counted seven and a half million ballots in five hours in Florida, and now you're telling us you can't do it in a week?
It's insane with much lower populations.
This has to change.
Every American, regardless of whether you're a Democrat, Republican, liberal conservative, should be livid about this.
You know what's sad too is the extent to which voting in this country has dramatically changed.
You know, I I look at these numbers and I find them unbelievable.
I look for example in Arizona, and there's no question that Republicans who control states like Arizona.
Now, again, you have Katie Hobbes running the election, yet she's running for governor, complete conflict of interest, should have recused herself.
But, you know, for Democrats, you know, elections have are now lasting weeks and in some cases months.
In Arizona, you can literally cast your ballot by mail any time starting a full 93 days before the election.
93 days, what, to canvas nursing homes and senior centers and high school and college campuses and and whatever.
I'm not I'm not even talking about anything nefarious.
You know, just the pure length of time.
I don't think a vote should take place until every final debate has been taken has happened.
I think people deserve those debates, and in many cases, most Democrats either didn't debate like Katie Hobbs or they debated like John Fetterman just you know a week before the election, after five or six weeks of voting had taken place.
How is this fair to the the American voter?
Hennedy is on right now.
All right, 25 now till the top of the hour.
800 941 Sean is our number if you want to be a part of the program.
Is there anybody in this country that can make the case?
If you can call me now.
800-941 Sean is our number.
That what is happening in Arizona, Nevada, in California, especially at Alaska, is the best we can do for the country.
Now we're gonna go over all of the house races, tell you where we are.
Um, but it's uh it's gonna be the Republicans in charge of the House by every objective measure that I see in every every vote count that I've gone over, which has been exhausting, but sick and tired of having all this.
Tell me how this is good for this country.
What and if we start from the the basics and you ask the question, um, what would be the best voting system the United States of America could adopt?
What would your answer be?
You know, I know that on election day, I was kind of making a joke over the fact, even though there's nothing funny about it, Carrie Lake heads to the polls out in Arizona, and that and she's going to put in her vote in some tabulator, and the tabulator is not tabulating or accepting the tabulations.
Um, and that was a pretty widespread issue at the time, and everybody acknowledged that that in fact happened.
And then people are given an option, okay.
Well, you can go to another precinct, or you can put it in draw number three.
What's draw number three?
Well, we'll put it right here and it'll be counted as a regular ballot but counted separately.
How do you how do you get to election day?
And that's the best we're capable of.
We deserve better than this.
We deserve much better than this.
And it happens if every other state, 46 states can do it the right way and give us an answer on the day of or the next morning or the next day, then you know, why can't they?
You know, there's there's some things that I can't explain.
Um, I can't explain how the Republicans won the popular vote, which they never win by by over five million votes, and And so many of these house races ended up being that tight, and many tip to the Democrats without explanation.
I can't explain how New Hampshire would vote for a common sense conservative, you know, Chris Sununu.
Granted, he's he may not be as conservative as me, but is he's a he's a smart guy.
He's a common sense conservative who's done a great job for the people of New Hampshire.
And then you have a radical new Green Deal Socialist Democrat, he wins by double digits, and and the radical socialist wins by double digits.
I can't explain that.
Um I can't explain why in purple or blue states any Republican would think that they had a shot after the Dobbs decision of running on no abortions at all whatsoever without exceptions.
I'm not talking about the issue of abortion.
I'm talking about the political viability of the position, knowing the state that you're running in and knowing that that, for example, if you run in New York or California, I promise you, if you run as as somebody that takes that position, you are going to lose and lose badly.
And that's what happened in the governor's race in the state of Pennsylvania.
And then that ended up impacting every other down ballot candidate, including Oz, who was able to get double-digit ticket switching because he did make the exceptions versus his Republican counterpart.
He only lost by what, two little over two points.
The Republican governor lost by 14.
Um, you know, one thing I gotta give Lee Zeldon credit for by keeping it so close in New York, I think he was able to um draft some Republicans that were running for Congress uh into victory.
You know, this one case of the DCC chair, Sean Patrick Maloney in Rockland County losing to Mike Lawler was a big deal.
Uh I now have a Republican congressman.
His name is Congressman Santos.
I don't really know much about him, but I'm glad he won.
I did vote for him.
Uh anyway, it's it's pretty interesting.
You know, the whole thing.
But if you look at the math, and this is from the bipartisan cook report, the the new math shows the GOP now pretty much mathematically, you know, the Democrats have no shot at the House, which I know they've been hoping for and getting the media to weigh in on.
Uh, they've now projected Mark Molinaro will win the election for his seat, and that's New York's 19th district.
Uh also uh calling or saying it will be called the Republicans have significant leads in Arizona won, six, California three, twenty-seven, forty-one, forty-five.
Lauren Boebert now is the probable winner in Colorado, but again, there's still a couple of thousand votes left to count there.
Um, but she's up by I think about 11, 1200 votes.
Last time I looked, New York 22, Oregon 5 has already been called Republican.
Um, so you know, though that's that's the latest on all these things, but there's some things I can't explain, some things I can't explain.
I do think that the biggest game changer, I one thing we've got to look at is whether or not Republicans did a poor job at redistricting.
This is the first election since they've had redistricting, which happens every 10 years based on demographic shifts and changes.
Um I don't know the answer to it.
You know, when Newt Gingrich, somebody as smart as him says I have to rethink every model I've ever known my entire political career, that's telling you something.
You know, one simple answer is voting rules have changed in the country as per COVID, and they've not gone back in most locations.
It there's gotta be.
I cannot believe so many people think it's just perfectly fine to have 90 days of voting or 60 days of voting or 30 days of voting, or to have voting before candidates ever debate, or those that avoid debating altogether.
Um I'm not gonna really get involved now in this this issue of who's in power until we get the final result counts, et cetera, et cetera.
But that's out there.
Um look, I mentioned before, voting is simply changed.
You can't have weeks and weeks of voting.
You can't let these candidates hide in the basement.
The complicit media will never ask questions.
You can have elections without voter ID.
Uh, It's sad, but it's true that if you follow the Joe Biden basement bunker strategy, it tends to work because people don't learn a thing about you.
And whatever, you know, you hire a good couple of people that are good on social media, and you just do the bare minimum in terms of public appearances.
Uh that that tends to lend itself to the idea that less is more, and there's no reason to even bother getting involved in campaigning.
You know, how does Katie Hobbs not campaign in Arizona, not debate in Arizona?
You know, John Fetterman, he hid the entire time.
And the media was fine with it.
Never asked them the tough questions.
Then when he came out, he actually I never said I want a moratorium on fracking.
Not only did you say it, we have it all on tape.
I never wanted the release of prisoners.
We've got it on tape.
You know, uh, that's not true, that story about the African American jogger.
We have him on tape saying you pointed a gun at him, and we have you on tape saying you probably vote uh you know broke the law.
Um, you know, did people just ignore some of these positions, some of these radicals?
I don't know.
You know, that the three most radical candidates running certainly were Fetterman and Mandela Barnes and Ron Johnson at 100 million dollars in money dumped on his head, and this radical, you know, nearly snuck in there.
I mean, it's crazy how insane.
That's that's like this guy Mandela Barnes doesn't reflect Wisconsin.
That I can tell you is a fact.
Um, maybe the economic pain issues, maybe it just hasn't been bad enough yet for people.
But, you know, now I get to my other theory that nobody that I've been explaining to people, but I think people are now finally beginning to understand it.
And let's see.
I just got this out of let's see, Carrie Lake is closing the gap.
I I don't know if it's going to be enough.
Apparently, they believe every vote left, and I I talked to her team today, 170,000 votes outstanding.
They believe the vast majority of them a day of dropped off votes.
But what I don't know and don't understand is last week they had 600,000 ballots, and they believe 400 of the thousand, 400,000 of the 600,000 were day of votes that were dropped off.
So only now it's beginning to show up as she literally made up, I think about 12,000 votes in the last 24 hours, which is a significant amount.
That race is not over by by any means.
So I've been telling everybody about about what I call accelerated migration.
What does that mean?
Okay, so people, when they retire, they often will leave states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and many of them are moving to the Carolinas because it's cheaper, it's better weather, it's you know, better living conditions.
They want to get out of the big city, they don't want to pay high taxes.
The reason I call it accelerated is COVID accelerated this migration.
What does that mean?
That means parents were fed up with their kids not having, you know, in-class education, but they can go down to Florida and get it, and many decided, you know what?
I'm gonna be moving in a few years anyway.
Let me get out of here now.
People fleeing high-tax states, all the ones that I just mentioned.
If you look at the East Coast of Florida, you know, it's it's you know, pretty dominated by people from New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.
If you look at the West Coast of Florida, it's very Midwestern.
People from Indiana, people from Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, they're all down there.
And the people that are moving are tend to be more conservative, that want lower taxes, that are tired with burdensome bureaucracy at the point of COVID, they decided that was the tipping point for them, and they wanted their kids to have in-person education.
So that that pushed them over and they made the switch.
And now we have a state, for example, people are moving to Texas in massive numbers.
They're moving to the Carolinas in big numbers, Tennessee and big numbers, and the state that is attracting the most people is the state of Florida.
And it's now beginning to show itself.
And the evidence that most of the people that decided to move are conservative is look at the margin of victory by both Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio.
And by the way, they deserve a huge margin because they both have done a phenomenal job.
So, however, did you ever think, you know, look at Ron DeSantis' race in 2018, he won by 33,000 votes.
Now he won by 20% of the vote.
And same with Marco Rubio, nearly won by 20% of the vote.
They both have done phenomenal jobs.
They would have, if if everything stayed the same from 2018, I would say absolutely they would have won by double digits.
But 20%?
When do we ever see that?
So what it means is these states now are going to get red and redder.
You know, North Carolina, Ted Budd, he ran a great campaign.
He won by a healthy margin.
Is it in part because of this accelerated migration?
You know, Tim Scott, we were able to call the race immediately.
Is it because so many people that tend to be more conservative, they're leaving these blue states and droves.
Now here's the long-term problem.
This now becomes a math problem.
And that is while more and more people head to countries, uh, countries, it's kind of like a different country.
Head to head to states that have more freedom, more liberty, lower taxes, warmer weather, and a better lifestyle, then they're leaving behind states that are blue that now become even bluer, or purple that now become blue.
And all the states that I mentioned.
Now, prior to this election, if you wanted a Republican to run for president and win, I've said this often, you'd have to run the table.
You'd have to win Florida and Ohio.
That's not an issue anymore.
Now it's become a whole different math equation.
But now you're gonna have to fight in Georgia because Georgia's gotten bluer.
You know, I know people are moving to the Carolinas and Florida, they're not really moving to Georgia in the same numbers that they're moving to these other states.
They're moving to Tennessee before they're moving to Georgia.
But but that's an issue for another day.
But think about it.
So they're more conservative.
So now if it was hard for a Republican to ever win in New York, I would argue 10 years ago, Lee Zeldon, similar, exactly similar conditions, probably could have won.
I would argue that Pennsylvania is going to get harder and harder.
It's purple now.
But if all if there's accelerated migration out of Pennsylvania, especially if they put the moratorium on fracking in the state, and that's going to dry up jobs left and right, people are going to abandon Pennsylvania in droves.
And then it will become impossible for a Republican presidential candidate to win, or nearly impossible.
The same thing with Wisconsin.
I mean, you already see the impact in a place like Wisconsin.
Baby boomers now are getting to retirement age.
They want lower taxes, and they want a better lifestyle, and they want less government, and they don't want draconian shutdowns like they experienced during COVID.
COVID impacted everybody, traumatized half the country.
Same with Michigan and all these other states.
If I'm right, all of those states become harder.
How is it Texas, you know, Greg Abbott, he won by double digits?
Look at the, you know, you take a U-Haul from California, any place in California to Texas, 3,500 bucks.
You take it from Texas to California, they'll pretty much pay you to do it for them.
You're doing them a favor.
You can get it for 400 bucks and maybe negotiate even lower because they want the trucks back in California because for the first time in 175 years, they have a net loss of population, not a net gain.
That's how badly that state's been ruined.
So this wow, watch this closely.
Accelerated baby boomer migration.
It's going to be a big issue.
Right.
Uh, by the way, when we come back, Herschel Walker will go over all of the numbers uh of all these congressional races with the head of the DCCC.
I'm sorry, the R the Republican National Committee.
The NRCC.
Thank you.
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