Gaza and Venezuela and Ukraine and Portland and Chicago and more~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Politics, Sea-Rise Myth, Long-Covid Detection, National Guard Chicago, National Guard Portland, SCOTUS Upcoming Cases, Low-IQ Death Penalty, Rob Reiner, Scientific Medical Studies, OpenAI AMD, France PM Resignations, Venezuela Possible Invasion, Monroe Doctrine, Gaza War Proposed Deal, President Trump, China's US Investment, Scott Adams~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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Too much pain.
But we'll try to do a show.
That's what we're gonna try to do.
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Ah.
Well, let's see if we can get through this today.
So uh there's a new study at a Cornell University that says that strong friendships may literally slow aging at the cellular level.
So if you've got a good social situation, it might make you age slower.
Now I have a hypothesis, which is a crazy one that I've had for a long time, that there's something about the human body in the brain that allows your your body and your brain to conform to whatever whatever it is you think you need.
So if you had no friends, your body would say, Well, there's no reason to hang around.
I don't need to live very long.
I don't even have any friends.
But if you had a really good social situation, your friends would depend on you, you would depend on your friends, and mentally you would have the feeling that uh you were important, and that there was a reason you should hang around and be alive.
So I feel like just knowing that you're important and you have a role might keep you younger.
That's what I think.
I believe your body gives you what you think you need in small ways.
Um in New York's New York, apparently uh it's hard to open a liquor store these days because um so few people are drinking liquor these days that they don't want to put the existing ones in business.
So if you apply for a liquor license in New York, they're gonna say, um, people aren't drinking nearly as much, and we don't want to put the existing ones out of business.
So 70% of the licensed applications for alcohol have been reject rejected.
Well, alcohol is poison.
Um according to a new Gallup poll, the percentage of Americans who say that college is quote very important, has fallen from 75% in 2010 to 35% in 2025.
Now, do you think that's because people realized that a college education isn't as good as you thought, or did the colleges become crap?
Overpriced crap.
I think it's the second one.
I don't think that people just change their opinion.
I think college went from you know, one of the best things you could ever do to maybe one of the worst.
You know, it'll make you broke and woke, and being broke and woke is no way to go through life.
So I understand this makes sense.
Well, according to P Gosselin at the no-trick zone, uh is reminding us that the uh sea level rise has never really happened.
Apparently 74 out of 101 islands in uh what is the Marianas or no, the Melodives is uh growing.
So there are many, there are as many islands, actually more.
75% of them are growing instead of shrinking.
Do you believe in climate change now?
I would say the most the single most basic thing that climate change predicted is that the sea level would rise.
Doesn't seem to be anything like that happening.
Some places it rises, some places it falls.
It's complicated.
But what's not happening is that we're not underwater.
It doesn't look like it's that's gonna happen anytime soon, anyway.
Um do you believe that long COVID is real?
How many of you think long COVID is real?
I know you're gonna say it's really long.
Long vaccination, it's not the COVID, it's the vaccination.
But how many think that there's something like that that's this long?
I don't know.
I I'm um I see mixed reports that maybe it's not even a real thing, and then other times I see reports that it is.
But uh there's some new new Japanese research on that, and they believe that they've not only identified long COVID, but the exact mechanism, something called a massive spike in the AMPA receptors.
So apparently they can now scan you, and they can know for sure if you have long COVID, they say.
So then I guess you could get some treatment.
I don't know what it would be.
But they talk about brain fog and everything.
I'm pretty sure that I had long COVID.
Maybe I had long vaccination, but I think it was long COVID.
Uh, because I definitely had brain fog for months and months.
I I could feel that for sure.
I don't know.
But it could also be in my head.
Don't know.
Meanwhile, um Trump is trying to send a bunch of National Guard people to Chicago, but Chicago doesn't want that help um with their crime situation.
But uh just to make things fun, uh Governor Abbott has offered that if they won't um that if Illinois won't use its own National Guard, that uh Texas would be happy to send 400 National Guard up to uh Chicago to do the job for them, which is kind of funny.
Abbott's Abbott's pretty good.
He he's always got a good uh a good response to everything.
Anyway, so uh I don't think that'll happen.
Maybe it will.
I don't know.
It's possible, but it's kind of clever how they're gaming this out.
It's like, all right.
Well, if you won't give us your own National Guard, we'll nationalize them.
You can't do that.
You can't nationalize my state National Guard.
All right, if I can't nationalize them, how about Texas?
We'll send some.
You can't do that.
That's a different state.
Uh doesn't matter, it's federal.
It's a federal issue.
Doesn't matter what state they're from, especially if you nationalize them.
Anyway, uh, but of course, a federal judge, as you remember, had blocked uh the deployment of National Guard to Portland.
It looks like maybe they've um they blocked it a second time.
Anyway, Gabin Newsom's bragging that uh they just won in court again, meaning blocking the Portland um deployment.
So that's that's what uh uh Governor Newsom calls winning.
So for him, winning is not solving crime.
Isn't that weird that they're literally celebrating?
Yay, we didn't solve any crime.
Oh, look at us.
Look how good we are.
Well, the Supreme Court's back in session, and Fox News is telling us what's what's coming up.
I guess they're gonna have a um case in the Supreme Court about the death penalty for low IQ people.
How low is the IQ before you can't get the death penalty?
It makes you wonder, is it 85?
70, 50?
Where's the cutoff?
I don't know.
But uh Jasmine Crockett would be the most worried.
Um, because apparently low IQ people can now get the death penalty unless the Supreme Court rules against it, which it might.
I guess there's a bunch of LGBTQ cases.
I don't know what they're about.
Birthright citizenship is on the is on the docket.
And also, can the president fire the heads of agencies?
That's the Supreme Court question.
And then something about tariffs.
There's always something about tariffs.
All right.
Well, Rob Reiner has uh emerged from whatever ROC he was under to uh once again try to get try to get Republicans killed by whipping up uh uh some kind of a Nazi frenzy.
So this is what Rob Reiner said on an interview.
This is just the beginning, and people have to understand our democracy is being taken away from us.
We have a year before this country becomes a full-on autocracy and democracy completely leaves us.
Donald Trump knows uh knows in a free and fair election he will lose.
Donald Trump knows that in a free and fair election he will lose.
Uh he's not running.
He'll lose what?
Lose the midterms.
I don't even know.
I don't even know if uh if Rob Reiner knows what country he's in.
I worry about that guy.
I used to think, oh, he's just a uh partisan, so he's just acting very partisan.
Now I think he's actually mentally ill.
I'm pretty sure that's just mental illness.
What do you think?
It doesn't look like anything but mental illness at this point.
So I hope he does well.
Um Dr. Asim Melhatra, who I don't know, but I suppose by the children's health defense, where he was saying that 20 to 50 percent of all health care activity in the United States brings no benefit to the patient, is harmful or wasteful.
Do you know why?
Up to half of all the medical processes are not helpful?
Well, he says the reason for that is uh because most of the published literature and medical research is poor quality.
In other words, uh most of the published studies are absolute bullshit, but doctors don't know that.
So they still prescribe based on the studies.
Great.
And he says the reason the problem persists is that most doctors don't know that.
How many of you thought that doctors were good at reading um scientific studies and then knowing how true they were?
Did any of you think that doctors would be good at that?
Nobody's good at that.
Scientists are not at that.
That's why peer-reviewed papers are you know more likely to be fake than not fake, because nobody's good at it.
Not a scientist, not doctors.
They don't look at the the raw, the raw data.
They just sort of look at the data you gave them, and then you go, oh, okay.
Well, if that data were correct, then your conclusion might be correct.
But they don't know if the data is correct.
That's not what the reviewers check.
So anyway, uh open AI and uh chipmaker AMD have entered a big multi-bazillion dollar deal.
So AMD's gonna make chips for uh open AI and maybe someday cut NVIDIA out of the process.
Um Wall Street Journal's writing about this.
Um it does make me wonder how much chaos is going on at OpenAI.
Open AI is competing against, but also working with Everything.
It seems like they have so many things going on at OpenAI.
How in the world could they possibly manage that?
I'm very curious if it's uh I'll bet if you're there, it would seem like total chaos because they're moving so fast and nobody knows what anybody else is doing.
Um but anyway, they got a big chip deal.
Meanwhile, the uh new prime minister of France resigned after about five minutes.
He's the fifth prime minister to resign in 21 months.
Five and twenty-one months.
That must be the worst job in the world.
Here's the good news.
The good news is you've been selected for to be prime minister of France.
The bad news is everybody who is selected to be the prime minister of France soon finds out it's a terrible deal, and you'll be bailing out as fast as they did.
So this they still have their president McCrone, but he's in trouble politically.
We'll see.
I feel like Macron has been in charge forever.
How many years has it been that Macron's been president of France?
It feels like it feels like 15 years.
I mean, it couldn't possibly be right, but it feels like it.
Um Trump says he's going to start uh authorizing attacks on land-based drug dealers.
He's been blown up boats.
I think he's blown up five, we think.
Five drug boats.
He's blown out of the water.
But now he says, reasonably, makes sense, that there are fewer drug boats because they know they'll get blown up.
So now he has to go hunt them on land, which he's gonna do.
So that's happening.
It's the same time.
There's some chatter about the U.S. might be getting ready to um occupy and or invade Venezuela on the ground.
So apparently the U.S. has tightened their siege around Venezuela, and uh we're we're apparently prepared if we get the order, the U.S. is prepared to seize ports and airfields.
So do you think there's any chance that won't happen?
Do you think that Venezuelan Venezuela is gonna say, oh, oh, now that you're really serious about attacking, we'll we'll work with you.
We'll negotiate, we'll work this out.
Not in the real world.
In the real world, that never happens.
In the real world, um, they will know that negotiating might be bad for them.
So they will they will uh try to stay there as long as they can.
So Maduro probably has to be taken out.
That would be my guess.
I'm not sure if that's a good idea or a bad idea, but I'm a big fan of the Monroe document.
And uh right now, Venezuela seems to be uh in conflict with the Monroe document, which says that the U.S. is the dominant player in this hemisphere, and if you mess around with us, we're gonna take you out, as long as it's in this hemisphere.
You know, you you can't mess with us in this hemisphere.
Um, and it looks like they're messing with us in this hemisphere.
So I would expect that Trump will act, and that uh we'll be in something like uh a war with Venezuela, or maybe it'll just be a decapitation strike, or maybe we'll just occupy some key assets and use it as a base to attack the cartels.
Could be any one of those things.
Well, let's talk about Gaza.
Um we don't know if the Gaza residents like the proposed deal that's on the table right now, but uh one uh news source contacted a number of people, and every person they contacted was positive about it.
Uh they all said, yeah, it's time to end the war.
Now that was a non uh scientific sample, but uh they couldn't find anybody who wanted to keep fighting.
You know, for the at least we're not talking about Hamas, we're talking about the just the residents.
The residents are just done, it looks like.
It looks like they're just done.
they want this over.
Um, so we'll see.
But as uh I described yesterday, Trump's approach to this to take a no as a yes and then try to bully everybody into taking the no as a yes is really interesting, and there's nobody else in the world that could even try that and get away with it, because we all know what he's doing, he's doing it right in front of us.
Oh, Hamas said yes, but really with conditions that couldn't possibly be met, which is that they want to stay in power and keep some weapons, so that's not gonna happen.
And then Israel probably wants to be set up for a you know, never have a two-state solution, and they're not getting what they want.
So Netanyahu said yes, but in all of his detailed descriptions of you know what they can put up with, he says no.
So it's a yes no.
Oh, yes, totally.
All we have to do is work out these things that could not possibly be worked out, and then Hamas is doing the same thing.
Oh, yes, totally.
All we have to do is work out these few items that can't possibly be worked out.
There's no way they can be worked out.
So the so what Trump is doing, which is so interesting, he's trying to create a reality um that doesn't exist, and he might be able to pull it off.
Yeah, it might be he's probably got like a 50% chance of pulling it off.
And the way that would work, can you get rid of Teddy?
Ted E needs Ted dot E needs to go away right away.
Talking talking to my engineer.
All right.
Um we'll see.
But what's happening is Trump is trying to bully people into turning their fake yes, where it was really a yes but and then the butt with stuff that can never happen.
He's trying to turn their yes but into yes, and probably just embarrassing them and bullying them and twisting their arm.
I don't know if that'll work.
But it's the closest we've ever been to something that looked like something that could work.
So I'm uh I'm just totally impressed with Trump's approach to this, because he he's essentially changing reality.
He's not negotiating.
If it looks like negotiating to you, um, I think you're missing the bigger picture.
He's modifying reality itself.
That's what he does.
He does that better than anybody except Steve Jobs back in the day.
So he's changing the reality from a yes but to a yes.
Can he do that?
Yes, but to a yes.
Well, nobody else could do it.
I I can say with some confidence, nobody else would be able to do that.
Could he?
Can Trump pull that off?
Coin flip 50%.
50% would be amazing, by the way.
Anyone who had a 50% chance of pulling off a complete redefin redefinition of a reality, that's pretty impressive.
But I think he has a 50% chance of pulling it off.
So we'll see.
Um Netanyahu was on some interview, clash report, Euro news, and he said that Europe is quote, caved in.
I think he means to the Islamic folks.
He says, Don't capitulate to terror.
Um, and he says that Europe has been absent because Europe is basically caved into Palestinian terrorism to radical Islamist minorities.
Uh let's do just give them a so he's Netanyahu is mocking the deal.
He says, uh, yeah, let's do let's just give them a Palestinian state, which would be the ultimate reward for Hamas after doing the greatest massacre against the Jews since the Holocaust.
Um what do you think of that?
So uh Netanyahu says, you can't possibly reward one of the greatest terror acts by giving them their own country, and then putting it right next to us.
It'd be one thing to give them a country.
I mean, That would be bad enough from Israel's point of view, because it'd be rewarding them for terrorism.
But isn't it a hundred times worse if that country that you give them is right on your border and they're not done with you yet?
It's way worse.
Way worse.
So I see Netanyahu still saying no to the deal while pretending to say yes.
And then he talks about how Gaza must be re-de-radicalized.
And he used Germany and Japan after World War II as an example.
Um and of course that got me into a conversation on X about whether children are routinely brainwashed.
Of course they are.
All children are brainwashed if they go to any kind of a school or church, they're brainwashed.
And you have to.
You couldn't possibly have a nation where people were not, at least the children were not brainwashed to somewhat uncritically take the side of their own team in every situation.
So can you do that in Gaza?
I'm gonna say no.
I'm gonna say that wouldn't be possible.
Because if you looked at Germany and Japan after World War II, they were not operating on any religious principle, were they?
So if you said, all right, the way you can survive is by you know letting us brainwash your kids so that they don't want to kill Americans and other people.
That's how you survive.
Well, Japan and Germany probably didn't have a big problem with it because they wanted to survive.
They didn't want to, you know, restart the war, and they didn't have any religious um blockage that would make them not do it.
But Hamas is totally religious driven.
I don't think you can brainwash religious people.
I've never seen that done.
Because they would simply resist harder, the harder you tried to brainwash them, the harder they would resist.
So I don't really see a way that they could be de-radicalized.
So you're gonna have to decide.
I mean, anything's possible in the long, long term.
You know, if you looked at 50 years, maybe.
If you look at 10 years or 20 years, no, not a chance.
They could not de-radicalize anybody in 20 years.
Uh let's see.
And tomorrow is October 7th.
So that will probably put some uh pressure on people to get this deal done because they're gonna want to probably they're gonna want to wrap it up because it's a meaningful date, October 7th.
Um, but apparently Israel is continuing to bomb.
So you all remember the story where Trump said uh basically said I ordered Israel to stop bombing, and they agreed.
Well, apparently he did not order Israel to stop bombing, and they agreed.
He may have ordered them to stop, but they did not stop.
They continue to bomb.
Now I doubt it's as much as it used to be.
You know, maybe it's just opportunistic.
If they see a target, they're like, oh, we're not gonna get another chance at this one.
Let's take that target out.
So it might be that.
Anyway, so we'll keep an eye on that.
Um, I still say it's a coin flip whether peace is accomplished.
I don't think Israel is looking for a peace.
I think they're looking for um a say a positive conclusion from their perspective, which may or may not include peace.
So um, I think uh Netanyahu will derail it if Hamas doesn't derail it first.
One of them will derail it, most likely.
50% chance, 50%.
Um, I saw Mario Knoffel who does these great uh summaries of the news every day.
You should follow him, Mario Knoffel, N-A-W-F-A-L.
But anyway, um, he's he referred to uh the Ukraine-Russia thing as an energy war.
Um, so it's good to see that phrase make it into the uh popular notions, an energy war.
And uh sure enough, he had again last night, um 22,000 people lost power in Ukraine's Kharkiv region because the Russians attacked their energy infrastructure, but Kiev was uh attacking Russia's refinery and energy structure too.
So at this point it's robots versus energy infrastructure, and it looks like that's the war.
When was the last time you saw a casualty number from Ukraine that was updated?
Think about that.
I haven't seen a casualty number, as in this week, you know, a thousand people died.
I haven't seen a casualty number at all.
And it makes me wonder if the human casualties are so low, um, that the real war is now the energy infrastructure.
And I think that might be the case.
Because I think the humans are just hiding and sending out their drones and their robots when they get a chance.
So it's a robot war for sure.
Um and uh Zelensky knows what's going on.
He says Russia is openly trying to destroy our civilian infrastructure right now, and sure enough, they are.
Uh there's a giant fire that's erupted, as if that wasn't caused by the the Ukrainians.
Uh massive fire erupted all by itself, I guess, at the largest oil terminal in occupied Crimea.
So that's Russian occupied.
So Crimea being sort of easy to get to, if you're gonna do some you know, bombing or droning.
Uh, I would say that their infrastructure is in a lot of trouble.
So Russia says it shot down 251 Ukrainian drones last night.
251 in one night they shot down.
So how many were there?
Were there a thousand?
Like there's a there's a lot of drones now.
Some some uh some country is gonna get to a million, somebody's gonna get to a million drones that they would deploy, you know, all million at the same time.
That's gonna happen in a few years.
Um Putin has decided that this would be a good time to offer a nuclear arms control deal that would apparently be more voluntary.
Is that a thing?
A voluntary nuclear arms deal?
Well, probably that's the only way there is because it's not like if we make a nuclear arms deal and Russia doesn't do their part, it's not like we can punish them.
So it's sort of all voluntary, you know, you don't even have to add that part.
But uh Trump says it sounds like a good idea.
They haven't talked about any details, but he likes that idea.
Uh meanwhile, and this doesn't make any sense to me, unusual Wales is reporting this, that uh China is floating the idea of investing a trillion dollars in the United States, according to Bloomberg.
Why would China float the idea of investing a trillion dollars in the United States?
At the same time that we've discovered that China was doing those uh SIM card um ops where they had built this ability to take down all the cell phones in New York.
Uh do we really want their investments if if we're at war with them?
We're basically at war, right?
With China.
Um I don't know why we would even accept their trillion dollars investment.
So my best guess is that China thinks that the more they invest, the more power they have over us.
So I suspect there might be some things they want, such as you know, uh resources or something.
So they might want something, and they might know that they have to make an investment uh to get it.
