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Good morning everybody and welcome to the highlight of human civilization, which by the way is not a very high bar today.
I've seen Human Civilization.
We've never been worse.
So really, if you're competing with the rest of civilization, it's your time.
Not much competition lately.
But if you'd like to take it up to levels that nobody can even understand, it's so incredible.
All you need is a cup of margarita glass, a tank of Chelsea Stein, a canteen jug of Lask, a vessel of any kind.
Fill it with your favorite liquid.
I like coffee.
And We begin now, the simultaneous sip.
It's the best thing that's ever happened to you in the whole world.
Go!
Oh, yeah.
That's so good.
So, so good.
Well, let's talk about all the news.
We'll start with silly stuff, as I like to, and then we'll get into the dark, dark news, of which there is plenty.
Apparently the new South Park viciously mocks Disney for their wokeness.
Now, have you ever heard a teaser for a TV show of any kind that was better than this one?
Is there anything that makes you want to watch South Park more than knowing that they're going to mock Disney for Disney's wokeness and ruining all their movies and turning them to shit?
I am so there.
I don't know if it's out already, but it might be out today.
Oh, you've already seen it?
People say it's great.
Yeah.
Honest to God, I can't imagine a more provocative or inviting, you know, commercial for a show.
Definitely gonna watch that.
In other news, the Pharma industry is gearing up because we got all these new powerful drugs to protect us from obesity.
That's right.
Our food supply in America is so compromised that instead of trying to fix it so that we can eat food that doesn't kill us, Big Pharma is going to invent drugs that counteract the effects of our food.
That's a real thing.
You could argue that that's always been the case because diabetes, drugs are, at least in part, fixing somebody's bad diet from the past and, you know, etc.
I know there's a genetic component to that.
So, I don't think there could be a signal of our civilization's incompetence That would be more glaring than, keep eating this poison food, but it's okay, because we'll get you some poison drugs to take care of your problems from the poison food.
But what about the side effects from the drug?
That's okay.
We'll make another drug that deals with the side effect from the first drug.
We're so fucked.
So fucked.
Well, apparently, I think On October 30th, the White House is reportedly going to reveal what's called a sweeping AI executive order.
Brian Romeli, who I often quote for his expertise in AI, he posted this today.
He says, I can say with certainty that some new AI companies will relocate to a country that does not have some of the proposed restrictions.
We will lose with this approach.
Oh no.
Are we really going to make America the place you can't build AI?
Is that really going to happen?
What exactly are these restrictions?
Are the restrictions going to be stuff like you can't scrape data from the Internet?
You can't train it?
It might be something like you can't train it using the Internet.
Then what do you do?
Don't you just relocate to Bermuda and then do what you were doing anyway?
I feel like it's astute.
Well, first of all, AI could solve its own problem.
Am I right?
You could just ask the AI, hey AI, there's some sweeping new reforms.
What do I do now?
And the AI would say, move to Mauritania and set up a corporation.
And you'd be like, can you do the paperwork for me?
Done.
Sign here.
All of a sudden you're a Mauritanian company.
So there's that.
All right.
According to the Jonathan Turley Post on X, nearly 70% of voters say they believe the current President Biden has acted either unethically or criminally with regard to the, you know, Biden crime fairly selling access and stuff.
70%.
So You realize that we're heading as fast as we can toward a brick wall here, right?
Let me explain the brick wall.
My guess is that by this coming summer, if Trump is not actually, you know, taken off the board, which I worry about, he should have a commanding lead that would be insurmountable for winning the 2024 election.
That is not going to be a comfortable place to be.
Because I don't know what is the emergency, you know, break glass situation for the Democrats, but I don't think that they can let him be president and be alive at the same time.
I think that they've already decided that of all the options, they're not going to have a President Trump.
I'm talking about the deep state and the bad guys.
So I really worry There's something dramatic will happen around the summer of 2024.
Because at the rate it's going, he's your next president.
So now, here's a caution I always give you.
When people make straight-line predictions like that, you know, the way things are going is the way they'll still be going next year, that's never going to work.
Nobody's ever made a successful prediction based on things staying the same for a long time, right?
It just doesn't happen.
So when people were asking me the last presidential election, you know, what do you think?
What's the slaughter meter?
And I was like, well, it depends if something happens between now and the election.
And do you know what happened?
The pandemic!
So you really can't predict anything.
But that's the way it would go if nothing changed.
All right, so that main shooter has been found dead.
I'm told that there is a press conference that should be happening right now.
And I'll ask anybody who is watching that also, if you if you have my text, If you know how to message me already, yes, I will ask right now.
Send updates on car.
So if anything happens, I'll probably get a message and I'll tell you about it.
So, I'm going to ask you to believe something that I can't prove.
Well, actually I could.
I'll give you a witness, if you want a witness.
But I swear to God I said this privately.
Privately I said that the shooter would be found dead in a suspicious, like a place that didn't make much sense, near a dumpster.
That was my actual prediction.
That he would be found dead near a dumpster.
But wait!
I also predicted that you wouldn't find his boat.
They found him reportedly in or near a dumpster, and they can't find his boat.
All right.
Do you remember me saying it?
Yeah, the people in the man cave heard it.
So the press conference is late, we'll find out.
Remember I told you that reality is what predicts best?
Because we live in a world where our brains are not really designed to understand truth or reality.
But sometimes you can have a, let's say, a model of how things are that does a good job of predicting.
And that's as close as you can get to reality.
Did the thing I predicted happen or not?
So I had been somewhat whimsically saying there's something wrong with this story.
And I was suggesting there's an alternative explanation for everything we see.
Now, I want to be really careful here.
I don't think the alternative explanation is true.
If I had to bet on it, I'd bet against it.
But I took an alternative interpretation from the one that was in the news.
And I said, if the alternative interpretation is correct, here's what you could expect.
You'll find his dead body near a dumpster and his boat will be missing.
Now, the hypothesis, and this is, trust me, I'm not trying to sell this to you as true.
I'm not saying it's true.
I'm just saying it was an alternative theory that did a weirdly good job of predicting.
And by the way, the other theory is that he's crazy.
He's crazy, he had a fight with his girlfriend, That's the whole story, right?
If you're going to go with the simple version, crazy guy does crazy stuff.
Crazy would explain everything that is unexplained.
It wouldn't leave much out.
But there are a few things that are hard to explain.
Let me give you a few of them.
Number one, his video from the cameras did not match the photo that we're looking at.
Different shape of face and everything.
But that could easily be explained by... How could that easily be explained?
One would be he'd lost weight since the photo.
That would explain it.
He'd grown a better beard.
His hair had grown out.
And the angle of the camera made his nose look different.
There would be nothing unusual about that, would there?
That'd be completely normal.
So it could be that it's just, you know, the video is a little distorted.
It's a different angle.
You know, his photo is looking up at his nose.
The video was looking down at him.
Changes what your nose looks like.
Makes sense.
But the first day I saw the supposed photo of him, compared to the video, I said to myself, You know what?
If this is real, and he's a real person, we'll see a whole bunch of other photos, because everybody has other photos, and then some of those other photos would probably look a little bit more like the video, and then I would say, oh, alright.
But, if you follow just for fun, the alternate hypothesis, that there's something going on here, and it's not really him, Which is not my view.
I'm just saying alternate hypothesis.
Then what would you expect to find about his other photos?
Well, you'd have a weird situation, wouldn't you?
If all of his other photos also did not look like the video, well then you'd have some real questions, wouldn't you?
So you remember all the other photos you've seen since Wednesday?
You know, we've known his name for a long time.
They're probably co-workers and No, there is a new one.
There is a new photo.
There's an unshaved version against some kind of blank background.
Now, have you seen that photo?
And have you noticed that it looks exactly like what you expect from AI photos?
It looks like AI.
Why is there only one person in the world who only has one photograph?
He has one photograph and one that looks AI generated, I don't know if it is.
But where was that one other photo taken?
What was it for?
Might have been like an employee ID or something, because there's a blank background.
But it looks suspiciously like AI to me.
Now, I'm not saying it is, right?
As I go, I'm going to keep reminding you, this is not a real theory.
It's just showing you how alternate theories can match the same facts, which is, I hope, the interesting part.
So I'm going to build for you a conspiracy theory, but not because I believe it's true.
I'm just going to show you how well it predicted.
If he were crazy, would you expect that his boat would be wherever he usually leaves it?
I would.
Because his boat has nothing to do with the crime, right?
Why would it be anywhere except the last place he put it?
But it seems to be missing.
Next, he was wearing the same clothes that he was seen on the video.
Now, you could say, well, that makes sense.
He's crazy.
He's on the run.
Same clothes.
But if you're on the run, was there no point you said to yourself, I should bring a second jacket?
At least a different jacket.
Because the jacket was kind of, you know, Easy to identify.
Or whatever his hoodie or whatever it was on.
Now do you also notice that the clothes he was wearing were extra baggy?
When's the last time you saw anybody wearing, anybody 40 years old, wearing extra baggy clothes like that?
Now maybe it's because he lost weight.
It could be just because he lost weight.
So that would explain it.
But if you want the conspiracy theory explanation, what would be the kind of clothes that would be easy to put on a corpse?
If you were going to say, someday I'm going to have to take these clothes off of my body and put them on a corpse, what kind of clothes would you wear?
You would wear the baggiest clothes you could wear, because that would be the easiest thing to put on a corpse.
What did the news say in the first reports?
He was found wearing the same clothes.
Do you think that that was an important thing to say?
He was found wearing the same clothes?
Have you ever heard anybody say that about anybody else?
He was found dead wearing the same clothes.
Interesting.
And what about the note?
So we're told that there was a suicide note.
Suicide note.
Now if there's a suicide note, that would be confirming that it's definitely that guy and it was definitely mental illness and he definitely intended to die.
Everything's answered.
Where was the first story you heard about the suicide note?
Was it NBC or ABC?
Which one?
NBC or ABC?
And then things got a little murky, right?
Now do you know what NBC and ABC are famous for?
Among the media outlets that do news, what are they famous for?
They're kind of famous for being intelligence agency outlets.
Places that our own intelligence people use to plant their version of reality.
Now that doesn't mean that's what happened.
I'm just saying, I'm just describing it.
And of course they found the gun and the guy was known to have mental problems and known to, some say he broke up with his girlfriend, which I also predicted.
I predicted that if it was actually him, he broke up with his girlfriend and maybe he met her At that recycling plant near where they found his body.
Because that would be sort of a message to his ex-girlfriend that it was something about her.
You know, he would go to some place that they worked or met each other or something like that.
So if it's really just him, and there's nothing mysterious about it, I would expect that the place he died had some relationship to his relationship with his ex-girlfriend, if that part of the story is true.
Anyway.
What else do we have?
So he's the only person who has only one photo, except for the one that looks like AI, but we don't know if it is.
Why did I predict he would be found dead near a dumpster?
Do you know why?
Which would be very unusual, wouldn't it?
Why did I say dead near a dumpster?
Because that's how I would have done it.
If I were going to set up a fake murder, I would make sure that you found the person fairly soon.
I'd want you to find them in a day or two, but I wouldn't want you to find them in an hour.
What would be a good place to leave somebody that you're guaranteed somebody will see them the next day, but there's a very low chance they'll see them in an hour?
Near a dumpster.
Because dumpsters are places that people go to every day, but not often.
Right?
Maybe once a day.
So that would be a perfect place to put a corpse that you wanted people to find, and you wanted them to find it in a fairly specific time order.
So I said, well, if it's not what it looks like, you're going to find his dead body near a dumpster.
Now, he did put some effort into escaping.
And he had a boat.
Don't you think he could have done a little bit more escaping?
If he wanted to?
They located the... What?
They located the body in a box trailer, a container, at the recycling company.
They had searched the area twice, but they had not looked in that container.
Who kills themselves inside a container?
Is that common?
Do you know a lot of people who murder themselves and they climb inside a container?
All right, let's see if there's more on this.
Inside an unlocked trailer.
At a recycling center where he once worked.
An unlocked trailer.
What would a trailer be used for at a recycling center?
To carry recycled stuff?
Was it an office?
Or was it a trailer like a mobile home trailer?
A trailer office?
Let me ask.
Why wouldn't they have looked in there the first time?
Let's find out what's going on.
office trailer.
It was a container box trailer.
Container box.
So it wasn't an office.
It was a back of a truck.
Why would you do that?
Oh, oh I know why.
You would do that because you knew they were using infrared to look for you.
Right?
So he was hiding from the infrared.
Is that a thing?
Does anybody know if that would work?
Right?
If you were an animal and you were inside a container that was metal sides, the infrared wouldn't find you.
So he might have been hiding from the infrared.
Which means he was watching the news coverage.
which said they were going to use infrared to find his C signature from above.
Infrared sees through metal?
Oh.
Oh.
Well, I'm not sure he knew that.
Did he know that?
No, it does not, some people are saying.
Okay.
So it wasn't a dumpster, it was a container truck next to a garbage facility.
Recycling, but garbage.
Now, key to my prediction that it was going to be next to a dumpster was that it would be a place you wouldn't expect.
You know, more like a good place to kill somebody than a good place to kill yourself.
You know what I mean?
If you watch the movie, does anybody go there to kill themselves?
But it's exactly where you're going to kill somebody else.
Or to put a body there, I suppose.
Now, I also heard a report, very unverified, that he was shot twice.
I assume they would tell us if that were the case, right?
Nobody shoots themselves in the head twice.
Where is a good place to kill yourself?
Almost anywhere.
The forest.
The forest would be the best place.
Might as well enjoy your last minutes.
Hell, the forest is nice.
All right.
So.
Yeah, there's something sketchy about this.
I would wait to see if we see a picture of the note.
I'd want to see a picture of it.
I want to know they match the handwriting, which they probably will.
But if it's what it looks like, it's some kind of, you know, op, some intelligence op, this would be the point where the authorities would start just agreeing with whoever told them to say whatever they say.
So you could be hearing, you know, if under the theory, under the theory that there's something going on here that's not obvious, Everybody would now be on board with the same theory.
So everybody would have the same story.
Because by now, you know, law enforcement would have to get on board and probably just agree with stuff.
So here's what I further predict.
If the situation is as clean as it could be, crazy guy gets a gun two days before he killed people, killed a bunch of people.
It's probably exactly that.
So if you were going to predict Based on that theory, what would you predict next?
Well, I would predict that all the facts would come into play and they would all support the same narrative.
You'd find that the handwriting matches on the note, the note very clearly shows his intentions, he bought the gun the day before the shooting or the day before he was diagnosed as having some mental problems, I think.
And he just didn't change his clothes because he was on the run and he's crazy.
He only had one good photo, but maybe there are lots of good photos.
We just didn't have time to find them.
But here's what you would find if it's fake.
If it's fake, you're going to find some kind of MAGA Trump-supporting messages.
Now, I saw some reports that didn't sound real, that he'd said some stuff on social media, but it's impossible that he said things on social media if they only have one photo of him.
I mean, is he the one person who's never put his picture on social media?
So, look for what is his social media profile, because I've heard nothing about it.
Have you heard anything about his social media?
Is he the only 40-year-old who has no social media?
That would be very rare.
Yeah, there's one 4chan thing that looks fake to me, so I'm not even going to mention that.
So there's some fake manifestos, but if it's an op, it's about Trump.
Remember I was saying, you know, we're waiting for the next op, there's going to be an op, What would be the better op than a MAGA extremist killing people?
That would be the best op of all, wouldn't it?
MAGA extremist with a high-powered gun.
What is more on the nose than MAGA extremist with high-powered gun that he easily purchased even in the context of mental health?
Right?
Oh, even crazy people can get high-powered guns But the important thing is he's got to be a MAGA supporter.
Like, not just Republican.
He's got to be MAGA.
He's got to be pro-Trump.
So do you expect that to happen?
So here's my prediction.
If it's a straightforward story, we'll hear some perfectly reasonable reason why there are no good photos of him except the one that looks suspicious.
There might be a perfectly good reason, like his friends say he never liked social media.
I'll buy that.
His friend says he doesn't use social media.
Totally, totally, I'm done.
Yeah, okay.
That's not that crazy.
There are some people who don't.
But, if there's no indication that he did anything but make a few anti-Trump posts, or pro-Trump posts, it's gonna look pretty suspicious.
All right, let me see.
We have two pictures of him.
All right, we've got his... Looks like there's only two pictures, yeah.
They don't look like the same guy.
All right.
Oh, here we go.
Note was found in his home.
It was not fully a suicide note, but it had his passcodes and where to find items once he was gone.
Well, that's a suicide note, isn't it?
Now, if it were an op, it would be more suicide-y, right?
So if somebody were, like, making him write the note, they probably would have said, and say you plan to end it all today after you shoot people, or I'll kill you right now.
But it has passcodes and where to find items once he was gone.
So we have a suicide note that lacks motive, except we heard voices and stuff.
So we have a non-standard situation with his photos, and a non-standard situation where he was found, and a non-standard suicide note.
The suicide note is kind of ambiguous in terms of what theory it supports.
Anyway, so one theory is that he was the perfect Patsy because he was a gun guy and because he had mental problems and also a gun.
So if you knew somebody like that, he'd be the perfect person to be your Patsy.
But I'm not saying that's what happened.
It's probably exactly what it looks like.
Crazy guy with gun.
But we'll see.
All right, I saw that George Bush threw out the first pitch at, is it the World Series?
Is the World Series happening now?
I'm so not caring about baseball.
All right, so George Bush threw it out, and of course it, you know, bounced once or twice before it reached the home plate, because he's a certain age.
Is George Bush in his 80s now? 77?
You know, at 77, he looks spry.
I thought he was actually going to throw a strike, because George Bush was in good shape.
But that's because Biden can't do it, right?
That's why, right?
Because Biden wouldn't be able to throw it without falling over.
Or if he threw it, it would just be like pushing it.
You know, I feel like Biden has become Mr. Burns from The Simpsons.
Do you know that comic, that character, Mr. Burns?
He's always represented as being so weak that he can barely lift anything.
Well, Taylor Swift is a billionaire, they say.
I don't know how anybody would really know.
But I heard a story about a clever business thing she did.
Which is, she made a movie of her tour, so it turned into a film, but instead of releasing it through a studio, which is the normal way everything's done, she asked the following question.
What's the studio adding?
What are they doing?
Wait, why am I giving them most of my money?
It's because they know the phone number of the movie theaters.
That's it.
They're the ones who go to the movie theaters and say, hey, do you want to run this movie?
That's what they do.
And then they publicize it.
So it's publicity and distribution, but they don't do the distribution.
They simply call the people who do and say, hey, I got another one.
So Taylor Swift said, why do I need publicity?
Is there somebody who hasn't heard of me?
If I just tweet to my bazillion fans that I have a movie, you don't think I can fill all the theaters?
So she was like, well, I don't need publicity.
I can do that myself.
And then she said, I already made the movie.
I hired my own videographers.
Movie's already done.
I don't need the studio to make it.
I don't need them to promote it.
But what about that phone call that they make to the studios?
And then she thought, what if I call the actual movie theater chain and say, you want to buy this directly from me?
Are they going to say no to a Taylor Swift video that would probably be their most profitable thing they'll do?
Of course I said yes.
So, but as the person I first heard this from, I don't know who it was on the news, the real story here is that she found a model that any celebrity could use.
If Tom Cruise decides to make a new movie, are you not going to hear about it?
Because there was no studio involved?
No, you'll hear about it.
And if the movie theater said to Tom Cruise, If he called the theater directly, do you think the theater would say, no, we must get this from a studio?
No.
They would take it on.
So it could be the studios are just on the way out, except for small movies that need the promotional muscle.
So that's sort of a big Taylor Swift thing.
She does make good business moves.
All right, so I got to tell you an experience I had yesterday.
I went on a Spaces, that's the audio feature on the X platform, listening to people who were very pro-Palestinian, not pro-Hamas, but pro-Palestinian.
So I listened to their whole conversation and how they framed everything from the October 7th to what Israel is doing in Gaza now.
And what I learned was, at least among this group, you know, it wasn't everybody in the world, but it was people on the X platform who were pro-Palestinian.
To them it seemed like the Hamas element wasn't important.
Let me say that again.
Nobody there seemed to think that the Hamas attack on Israel was especially important to anything that was happening.
I mean, I didn't know what it was like being in another universe.
Here's their interpretation.
I don't endorse this, but you should hear it.
Their interpretation is that the Hamas attack is another small scene in a much larger movie that is Israel trying to depopulate Palestinian held lands in their opinion.
So that the Hamas thing was sort of just an obvious thing that would happen within that text, they say.
That is, Israel versus the Palestinians.
And that it's always been a trick, they would say, that Israel ever wanted to live in peace.
So their version is that Israel is trying to do everything it can to squeeze the Palestinians into just leaving.
So it would be like they're leaving on their own, But we made it so hard to live there through a variety of art tricks that, you know, we're just colonizers, basically.
Now, I'm not endorsing that view.
But if you don't know it exists, you're not going to understand anything you see.
So apparently there was a huge Pro-Palestinian protest in Grand Central.
And they filled the entire Grand Central with protesters.
Now, I'm guessing most of them are just Democrats.
Like, I don't think they're actual Palestinians.
I think they're just Democrats who agree.
And so I saw this huge, huge group of Democrats.
Now, here's the good news.
Totally peaceful.
I'm going to give them credit for that.
You know, given how high the emotions are, that was a lot of people to put in one space and peaceful.
So I'm going to give them that.
I'll give you that checkbox.
Good job on the peaceful part.
But my take on it was, the last time I saw that many people in one place who didn't understand how cause and effect works, I think it was the Democrat National Convention of 2020.
Somebody says BLM.
I think BLM was more of a, you know, a money thing.
All right.
So just know that.
Is anybody having a problem with supporting either side?
Here's our dilemma.
If you were to support Israel, which I do, you will be called a person who supports genocide by people who don't like Israel, or at least don't like what they're doing.
So, simply supporting Israel, as I do, Puts me in the category that I will be blamed by other citizens, and a lot of them, of supporting genocide.
Much like 1939 Germany.
Now I say to myself, how in the world could those Germans have, you know, allowed the Holocaust to be happening if they were somewhat, even a little bit aware of it at all?
All right, so if you support Israel, obviously you'll be called a supporter of genocide, a Nazi, by all the people who are opposed to it.
And there are a lot of them.
I mean, in the world and in the country, there are a lot of them.
Now suppose you go the other way, and you say, no, no, no, I'm anti-Israel, suppose you say, and I support those Palestinians.
How can you really support the Palestinians without supporting genocide?
Because there are enough of the Palestinians who are Hamas in their views that if you were simply saying, hey, let them alone and let them live in peace, you basically would be supporting them eventually doing another mass killing.
And if they got powerful enough, their ambition is to essentially depopulate Jews from Israel.
So you have two choices to be a supporter of genocide.
It doesn't matter which side you take.
Now you could maybe convince yourself you're on the good side, which I do every day.
But keep in mind that some large percentage of the world population will think you support genocide and will go to their graves thinking that.
They will always think it.
Whichever side you take.
Now, so what's the solution?
Well, I saw some videos where children, Palestinian children, and then also Jewish children, were interviewed in the first case.
And the little Palestinians said stuff like, they teach us in school that Jews are bad people.
Quote, I am ready to stab a Jew and step on him.
Quote, we have to start a war and show the Jews we are stronger.
Quote, They teach us that Jews are terrorists, quote, I'm going to run them over and stab them, quote, I'm ready to be a suicide bomber.
These were maybe nine year olds, nine or 10 year olds.
And you say to yourself, my God, they're brainwashing them like crazy.
Well, it took about a minute for somebody to say, um, here's a video inside of Israel.
In which Israeli kids, in what looked like a Jewish religion class, were being taught things that weren't... I don't know if they were as violent as this, but they were as racist.
It was similarly racist, it was just the reverse of it, with a little less violence, I think.
Now, how do you fix that?
So there's one rule that everybody agrees with.
You don't kill children.
Right?
Can we all agree with that?
You can't kill children.
But if you don't, you support genocide.
Let's be very clear about that.
If you oppose killing children in the Middle East, you support genocide.
Because they're weaponized.
The children have the weaponized virus in their mind that they're going to grow up and try to kill Jews.
So if you're okay with them just growing up, cause and effect, it's a pretty much, you know, one, two, three, genocide.
So how can you be opposed to killing children, and also opposed to genocide?
You don't have the choice.
You either gotta be pro-killing children, or jailing them until they're irrelevant, or you are in favor of genocide.
Because you either genocide the children, which nobody's in favor of, or you allow them to grow up and genocide you, which no one is in favor of.
So you tell me, how do I finish my life on this planet without supporting genocide?
Give me any path I can take.
What's my path?
I could say I'm uninvolved and I disavow everybody.
I could say that.
But then I would be what?
Tacitly approving of genocide.
So you're approving it by your actions, but you're also supporting it by your inactions.
And you don't have a second choice.
You're in the same boat as I am.
You can take a side, but I'll tell you you're supporting genocide.
Whichever side you take.
Because they've created a situation.
You know, location is destiny and design is destiny.
They've created a location and a civilization design that guarantees the complete genocide of one of them, if not both.
How else could it go?
You've designed it that way.
You just plopped people in the middle of this sea of hate How do you solve that?
So unless you gain control of the education systems of all of your neighboring countries, how's that going to happen?
You're going to end up with the same thing.
So you're just recreating the same problem generation after generation.
Now what will the Palestinians think after this year?
Will they think, oh, it was a big mistake.
It didn't work out.
I guess we definitely don't have to go do bad things to Israel.
No!
They're going to be like a thousand times more dedicated to it.
Every single child who survives there is going to be, you know, a terrorist when you're done.
So short of genocide, you tell me the solution.
You want to be really, really scared?
I did a poll on X to ask people if they were in favor of genocide.
That's where we are.
And it was a serious question.
Do you know what the results were?
About 25% said yes.
It depends.
Well, it depends, meaning there is a situation in which it makes sense.
And the situation is self-defense.
So, if you had to have a genocide to save your family, about a quarter of the people said, yeah.
But there are actually more people who just, if you add the people who just said directly yes, There were a lot of people in favor of genocide right today.
Your neighbors, yeah.
Yeah, a lot of your neighbors are actually in favor of genocide.
Now, here's a question I asked just to know how dicey this is.
So yesterday I asked people to put in the comments of a post to tell me what number of civilian deaths in Gaza Their mind, at least mentally, they would say, oh, that has moved from self-defense into genocide.
Because you should be able to say that number if you're going to have an opinion of whether it is or is not a genocide.
So we would agree that if Israel killed every man and woman and child in Gaza, that would be genocide.
Right?
Everybody would agree with that.
And we also agree that if they killed zero civilians, Miraculously, if somehow that were possible, and killed every one of the Hamas fighters, totally justified.
And we would say, wow, good job.
Right?
So it could be self-defense if zero civilians die.
It could be a genocide if 100% of everybody died.
Somewhere in between, there's a crossover.
If you don't know what that crossover is, you should shut the fuck up about this topic.
In my opinion, if you can't put a number on it, shut the fuck up.
Because you're a coward.
You're a coward if you can't put a number on it.
So I'm going to do it.
20,000.
In my opinion, and by the way, this is my opinion of how other people will think.
Not my opinion of my personal opinion.
It's my opinion of how others will see it.
Given the severity of the Hamas attack, everybody expects way too many civilian casualties.
But we also know it's war.
We also know terrible choices.
So there's some number that is a horrific number that much of the world will say, you know what?
You know, it's not Israel's fault.
They had to do what they had to do.
There's some number.
I'm going to say 20,000.
And I have no idea where it'll end up.
I don't know if it'll end up north or south.
I'm pretty sure that we won't know the real number.
Because there probably will be a Hamas lie.
There might be an official number.
Who knows if you could believe the official number either.
So, I'm looking at the comments.
There are pro-genocide comments right here.
In the real world there are pro... I mean you see them everywhere.
So, ask yourself.
If you were in Nazi Germany in 1939, would you have gone along with the Holocaust and Hitler?
I have the answer for you, and the answer is yes.
Yes, you would have.
Unfortunately, that's who we are as a species.
We very easily go to genocide as, well, I had no choice.
Probably Hitler thought he had no choice, or argued he did, something like that.
So, we're pushed into a position where we all have to deal with the fact that we're going to support genocide on one side or the other.
And you hope your own side doesn't define it that way.
That's the best you can do.
You know, you can hang around with people who didn't define it that way, then you don't feel so bad.
But somebody is going to define whatever you supported as genocide, and there's no way around it.
So you say to yourself, well, I'll just be not involved and not say anything.
Not good enough.
Not good enough.
You tacitly support it if you don't say anything.
So we're all supporters of genocide, according to the rules.
So that's suboptimal.
So here's a little more about the attack yesterday on Gaza.
By the way, there was one other person who gave an estimate.
He said 50,000.
Now I'm not commenting on his estimate.
I'll only comment that there was only one person brave enough to put a number on it.
Do you know why nobody else wanted to put a number on it?
Why do you think everybody avoided the question like I've never seen?
I've never seen anybody avoid a question as much as that one.
You know why?
Because on some level we know we're all complicit.
We're all complicit.
Whichever way this goes, we're all kind of complicit.
I wish we weren't, but the do-nothing scenario kind of makes you complicit.
Now here's the only mental defense that I can give you.
You don't have a choice.
Israel is going to do what Israel does.
Your opinion doesn't make any difference.
So you can have an opinion on it, but it won't change the outcome.
So I'm going to tell you that there is some number that will work out worse for Israel than if they stayed below the number.
I think, and this is just a cycle, oh let me test this on you.
I'll just test my number.
Now remember, this isn't your own opinion.
Give me the opinion of what the world will consider way past the line.
I say 20,000 is the point where the world can't handle it.
I'm seeing numbers like 10K, 5,000, 35,000.
10K, 5,000, 35,000.
I think 100,000 would be genocide for sure.
What do you say?
Civilians.
If it's 100,000 civilians.
I don't think it's going to reach that level.
The only way it could reach that level is if Hamas started killing their own people and it was mass starvation and they didn't let them out.
But that's possible.
Yeah.
So you think about 20,000.
Now here's the problem.
Hamas is going to say 20,000 by tomorrow.
And Israel will say there was never anywhere near that number, whether there is or not.
So we'll never know.
It's an unknowable number in the end.
But if there's official numbers coming out in that 20,000 range, that's where it probably wasn't worth the fight, because you end up worse off than before.
Now it will be worth the fight in terms of how the Israelis feel about it.
Because normally I would say you don't want to have a war over your feelings.
Wouldn't you agree?
The worst reason to have a war is about your feelings.
You know, because you feel afraid or something.
But I would argue against that.
I would argue that you could not be a resident of Israel today Without knowing that your army had absolutely eliminated Hamas.
No matter what it took.
No matter what it took.
You wouldn't even be able to live there.
So I would say that self-defense is very much in play here.
And I don't criticize Israel for doing what it needs to do to heal the brains of its citizens.
It's like an entire country with severe brain damage.
And Don't expect them to act completely rational, because they're fixing also a brain problem.
And that might require a severity of action that you wouldn't normally approve of.
Because there might be no other way to make their brains say, alright, that should make us safe for a while.
So I think Israel had to do what they had to do.
Alright, so they did a big push and a lot of bombing and they had some boots on the ground, but it wasn't, they say, the big push.
Here's what they were trying to do.
They were, apparently, this was being reported by Fox News today, they were trying to put pressure on Hamas to maybe get the hostage negotiations working a little better.
Now, do you know what my, do you remember my military suggestion?
So my military suggestion was exactly this.
So, I'm no military expert, but you're also managing hearts and minds and world opinion.
And what I thought is that Israel has to have the maximum amount of force short of a full-on ground invasion, and they need to just ride that situation as long as possible.
Today, tomorrow, next day.
Now they do have an issue.
That they have so many people in uniform that the rest of the country isn't going to work, right?
The people in uniform, at least half of them or more, need to get back to their day jobs because it's a pretty big takeaway from the economy.
And they're not going to be as high morale In three months, as they are on day one.
You know, they're gung-ho to get in there.
But I think, so anyway, what we have is a rates problem, not a yes-no problem.
If you've talked to anybody from Israel, they will talk yes-no.
There will be a conversation that will go like this.
All right, I think maybe you should go slow, but of course you have to eliminate Hamas no matter what.
Well, why would we go slow?
We have to get rid of Hamas.
I know, but you could make it worse if there are too many civilian casualties.
So, go slow, but definitely whatever you do, don't leave any possibility that Hamas can survive.
It's a hard conversation because they just want Hamas dead.
Wouldn't you?
Isn't that exactly what you would want?
If you'd watch your children be slaughtered, are you going to say, no, no, don't hurt their children?
Well, I've never had my children slaughtered in front of me, but if I did, I wouldn't be caring about the children of somebody else at the moment.
I wish I were such a big person that I could care about that, but I'm not.
So at the moment, it appears to me that Israel is doing exactly what I would have done.
I'm not sure.
That's a good thing.
But what I would have done is probe, bomb, probe, bomb, negotiate, probe, bomb.
Shrink the battlefield.
You just bomb the perimeter until it gets smaller and smaller.
And just keep negotiating.
I would negotiate until the last Hamas killer was dead.
Just keep saying you're negotiating and never stop saying it.
And you have to also keep saying this isn't the ground invasion.
Well, was that the ground invasion?
No, no, no.
That wasn't the ground invasion.
The big one's coming.
And basically, it is a ground invasion.
You're just doing it in chunks.
So you're still doing the ground invasion, but you're doing it in the smartest, lowest cost of human lives on the Israel side.
And you just squeeze them, squeeze them, squeeze them.
In theory, the hungrier they get, the longer they go without electricity.
The longer they go without the internet, the more likely that they're going to give up a hostage or two.
So I think everybody requires them to go about the way they're going, but they also have the advantage that there's a kind of a news black hole.
So the news isn't going to know exactly how hard they went, right?
So Israel could say that wasn't the ground invasion, even if it was totally the ground invasion.
And then maybe they clear an area and pull back.
Maybe they invade again and pull back.
So it could be that, I've heard the experts say, this would be way worse than Mosul, way worse than your normal street fighting.
So maybe they don't do that.
Maybe they don't do it in a normal way.
I wouldn't.
I would just keep blowing up structures and shrinking Gaza, because in the end Gaza's The buildings aren't going to be worth a damn.
Do you think there's any building in Gaza that's worth rebuilding at this point?
probably everything is going to be damaged beyond repair, at least in the northern part where they're focusing.
So, never disturb the enemy when they're making mistakes. - You're recommending what they're doing.
Right, exactly.
I am recommending what they're doing, but I also recommended it before they did it.
So I'm just commenting that it looks like they're doing it the smartest way.
Would you agree?
It looks like it's the smartest way they could do it.
Remember, your news is going to be all massaged.
So whatever you hear from this point on, the credibility has to go way down.
Because anything you hear coming out of the war zone will come from the participants.
Your ego.
Pat.
Pat, I'm sorry your ego is so destroyed.
Pat Fraser.
She just yelled in all caps, Your Ego!
I don't know if you noticed, but this is a show in which I make predictions and then I tell you how they did.
Can you handle that?
Can your fragile ego handle that sometimes I'll be wrong and sometimes I'll be right, but in the process of doing it, We'll all have this education about what things predict well and what don't.
For example, when I taught you to ignore anonymous sources, and then a news report came out that said an anonymous source says Mark Meadows wore a wire to talk to Trump.
Everybody who learned how to predict Already knew that anonymous source, especially from certain outlets, always means not true.
Not sometimes.
It always means not true.
So that's something that people who follow this live stream have learned.
And many of them told me as soon as that story broke, they looked for the source, source was anonymous, and then they knew it wasn't true.
And then they waited a day and sure enough, it wasn't true.
So, So maybe you should work on your ego.
All right.
All right.
Let's see if there's an update on this guy.
So not much of an update.
Let me just ask.
Oh, let me say this as often as I need to.
I'm not operating under a free speech umbrella right now.
So things that I say, especially about the Middle East, just assume that I'm censoring myself so that I can still be a public figure.
Stay in a jail and stuff like that, right?
You should adjust in your mind that I'm, in this topic specifically, I'm not attempting to be unbiased.
Do you hear that?
I'm making no attempt to be unbiased on this topic.
I'm completely biased.
So I'm pro-Israel.
It's not free.
I mean, whatever stand you take, it's not free.
But they are our allies.
I do have, you know, lots of friends in that world.
And I support my friends, and if this had happened in America, I would want to kill all of them.
And it's not up to me.
So, I do support self-defense without restrictions.
And that's what we're seeing.
I support self-defense without restrictions.
In all cases.
Now that doesn't mean it will be a good idea to have no control on your self-defense.
I'm not saying that.
I'm saying I'm not going to judge you if you're extreme in self-defense.
I might not like it.
I might not like it.
Might not even be what I would do.
But I'm not going to judge it.
Because you get to decide.
The victims get to decide what self-defense looks like.
Period.
If I hear that somebody was physically abusing a spouse, and the spouse tied up her partner and tortured him in a chair and then blew his head off, which would seem out of proportion to maybe what the abuse was, I don't give a fuck.
That was up to the abused person to handle it.
Now they might go to jail.
Because it was too far?
But I'm not going to judge them.
If you take out your bully, you're always going to be okay with me, no matter how you did it.
If there's a bully in... Well, I don't want to go that far.
What?
There are, quote-- this is on the mass shooter guy-- They don't want to say anything about these self-inflicted shots, plural.
Detectives cannot disclose at this time.
All right?
Now, which hypothesis does this support?
Does this support he was just a crazy guy who took his life?
Remember, he's a gun expert, and the only thing he had to do was shoot himself in the head.
That's all he had to do.
Two shots?
Which theory does that support?
It supports the theory that there's something up.
That it's an op.
Have you ever heard of anybody committing suicide with two shots?
The press asked if the police had video of the shooting.
and And they said they were going through the videos and it's under investigation.
Oh, video of the shooting.
That's interesting.
Why have we only seen stills?
If there were video cameras, can you think of one other time there was a major story and they didn't show you the video?
Is that because of the victim privacy?
Because I wouldn't want to see my family member being murdered on TV.
Interesting.
Has anybody said yet if he's a MAGA supporter?
Because that would be the next part of my hypothesis.
Not that he is one, that it would be reported that way.
Not yet.
So if we don't know if he's a MAGA supporter, all right, does he have social media?
And is he registered Republican?
Okay.
Was the gun semi-automatic?
Oh!
Alright, here's an interesting idea.
That if he committed suicide with a semi-automatic, if he pulled the trigger once, could there be two shots?
No?
It would have to be fully automatic?
Or a bump stock?
I'm getting yeses and nos.
There are about a thousand gun experts on this live stream.
There are probably more gun users on this live stream than any place in the world.
So if it was fully automatic, yes, but he probably didn't have a fully automatic weapon.
So there's no comment yet on whether he had social media or that he was registered to one political party or another.
Does that sound like the truth?
How in the world do you not know his political standing or whether or not he had social media?
and how he got around to the trailer.
But it was walking distance.
It does suggest there was another vehicle involved.
So I thought the place they found the body was walking distance from his car.
Oh, it was walking distance.
I mean, if you were running from the authorities, seven miles isn't a big distance to cover on foot, right?
I don't know how many miles it was, but I think it was just like a few miles.
So walking distance.
Yeah, I think walking distance.
All right.
So the man who has suspiciously no social media, suspiciously no political views, and suspiciously one picture that looks real from his driver's license, but the only other picture of him looks like AI, was wearing super baggy clothes, That don't look like him.
There's no video of it, but we got a still.
Do you think it's because the video shows his face better?
I doubt it.
It's eight miles away, somebody said.
Why would somebody shoot him twice?
because the first shot was necessary to control him, maybe.
Yeah, his car was left by the boats, but walking distance.
And let's see, no boat is found, right?
Where would the boat be?
All right, keep in mind, keep in mind that allegedly he left a note describing his access codes.
No boat mentioned.
The boat wasn't mentioned.
How is that not mentioned?
I mean, seriously.
How do you not mention his boat?
He parked his car near a boat dock.
All right, here's what makes more sense.
Again, this is just speculative entertainment, right?
I'm not saying this is true.
What makes more sense is that the real killer killed Carr Drove him to this place, actually probably killed him there, and then did his dirty work and then parked his car walking distance and got in his boat and went away.
If they never find the boat, I'm going to have real questions.
Yeah, he's going to park near a dock.
He's going to drive all the way to a dock where his boat isn't.
That was his plan?
To drive to the dock where his boat is not?
Alright, at the very least, would you agree that this is not going to look solved?
That there will be more questions than there are answers?
You could feel this developing, couldn't you?
Like that it wouldn't be open and shut like most of the mass shootings are?
Mostly the mass shootings are, there's no question who did it.
And very quickly, there's no question why.
All right.
Space aliens.
Could be a shapeshifter.
Boat was sank offshore and then he swam to another That wouldn't be a bad way to go.
If he had a dinghy with him, you dragged it along, sinks his boat near where his second car is, and then takes the second car.
A 15-foot boat is easy to sink.
Well, if you have a gun, it's pretty easy.
Don't you just take a few shots through the bottom of the boat and wait?
You just anchor it, put a couple of bullets in the bottom, and sail away on your dinghy.
Some boats don't sink.
Oh.
Interesting.
Some people are saying it wouldn't sink completely.
It would maybe flip over or something.
Okay.
Good to know.
If you blew the bottom out of the boat, like a giant hole, it still wouldn't sink?
They make them so floaty that they'll stay on the water even without.
Full of water?
Foam-filled cavities.
Oh, okay.
So I guess they're very floaty.
But I would imagine I would imagine there are different kinds of boats.
They can't all be floaty.
Something tells me the fishing boats are not floaty.
I feel like the recreational ones, you know, may have that safety feature built in.
But I feel like a fishing boat, they're like, give me the minimum that'll get me a fish.
A 15-foot boat does not have a dinghy, but it could have.
No, I'm talking about somebody in the, trying to cover up a murder.
All you'd have to do is, not a dinghy, but, you know, a rowboat, a canoe.
You know, I mean, just drag along.
You just have a canoe on your boat itself.
It was a 70s fishing boat, they say.
I don't know.
I think a 70s fishing boat would sink.
What do you think?
I don't know anything about boats.
I see a note that says he broke up with his girlfriend because he had a small dinghy.
Could be.
Alright.
The owner of the recycling company called police for them to check... What?
What?
The owner of the recycling company called police for them to check the box trailers.
That's a pretty specific suggestion.
Hey, have you checked the box trailers behind my... of all the places in the town?
He actually suspected the guy was in one of his box trailers?
Hmm.
Interesting.
Maybe somebody heard something.
I don't know.
The police are still trying to get into his phone.
Well, that'll be interesting.
Because you know what his phone would tell them?
Wait.
Question?
All right.
I have a question for the techie hackers here.
Do they need to get into his phone in order to know what path he took?
Or can they get that through the cloud?
Would they be able to trace where he went based on his cell signals?
The cell tower has it, right?
No cell towers, somebody says.
Provider can provide.
Yeah, I always thought that the service provider could tell you where somebody's been.
They could get it from the cell company.
All right.
So, So by now they should know if he's the right guy.
But on the other hand, if the real killer took the corpse with him, or took the guy's phone with him, then the real killer would have created a track record that was actually his instead of the owner of the phone.
Now remember, under the weird speculative theory that it's some kind of major op, The next thing you could predict would be that he's a big MAGA supporter.
Anybody want to take a bet?
If it's an op, there's a reason for it.
And if it's an op, it's somebody who's really good at this.
So it'd have to be somebody who's a professional.
Like, really a professional.
Better professional than you're used to.
And it would have to have a purpose.
And the only purpose that presents itself is to making it clear that MAGA people are dangerous.
And that Trump cannot be allowed in because he approves of weapons like this, even for crazy people, even if he doesn't.
All right.
That's all we know for now, so I'm going to go do something else.
We'll keep an eye on this story.
I hope today's live stream was not too alarming.
Is there any topic we missed while we were talking about this?
Shelter in place was lifted.
Yeah, there's some question about the timing of the shelter-in-place, but that sounds more like maybe a miscommunication or something.
Show us the latest Dilbert.
You want to see the latest Dilbert that you don't get to see?
I'll do that for you.
So subscribers get to see Dilbert Reborn every day, either on the X platform or on the Locals platform.
But the question was today.
Now before I show you this, I should tell you that Elon Musk does subscribe.
So he's one of the people on the X platform Who gets to see the comic.
Now that's important because today's comic is about Elon Musk.
So it's just the boss is talking to Dilbert.
They both have their phones out.
The boss says, wide-eyed, the boss says, Elon Musk just messaged me to ask if I want to be the first human to go to Mars.
And the boss, still excitedly reading, says, he says there's a 5% chance of survival and something about not wanting to hurt a monkey, blah, blah, blah.
And then he says to Dilbert, what do you think?
And Dilbert is still looking at his phone and says, I think you should do it.
I think you should do it.
All right.
I always say, how weird is it to be Elon Musk?
Like most of you, when you're watching the news, it's about other people.
But when Elon Musk looks at the news, like every other story is about him.
And now he wants to have a comic just to have some fun.
And the comic's about him.
It's like every time he opens something, it's about him.
How weird would that be?
I mean, it happens to me enough that I talk about it.
I have also the experience of I'll just click on an interesting news story because I think the topic is interesting.
And then some part of the story is about me.
Like, well, how the hell am I in this story?
Get me out of this story.
I love, there was a story, what was I saying?
There was something I was just joking about.
Oh, I joked, I've been joking every day that we didn't have a Speaker of the House.
I joked that everything was fine and maybe we don't need one.
And then somebody wrote a big article talking about how right-wing influencers, not even right-wing, how right-wing influencers are so crazy That they think we'd be better off without a Speaker of the House.
Now, none of you were stupid enough to think I meant that seriously, right?
Did anybody think I really thought we should never have a Speaker of the House so that Congress would just sit there being paid and never do anything?
That's actually something somebody wrote A serious article in which they supposed I meant that literally.
And, you know, I clicked on the article because it was interesting and I'm like, and right wing influencer, what?
Scott Adams says, you know, better off without.
What?
So that's how I read the news.
It's like, ah, damn it.
It's about me again.
And they made all this shit up.
Now, have I ever told you That the news about public figures is always fake?
If you think it's usually true, but sometimes they get it wrong, you're so lost.
