All Episodes
Previous Next
Oct. 26, 2018 - Real Coffe - Scott Adams
14:32
Episode 275 Scott Adams: The Bomber Suspect. How Was My Prediction?
| Copy link to current segment

Time Text
Hey everybody.
Come on in here.
Hey, UnixRab, Tino.
Come on in.
We gotta talk about this bomber suspect.
This alleged bomber.
Let's call him alleged.
Hello, Savannah.
Hello, Mike. Hello, Fleabiscuit.
Alright, now you know that the reason I make predictions in public is because my book, Win Bigly, is about persuasion.
And I made the claim back in 2015 that if you understand persuasion, it helps you predict the future better.
And that your filter on life should be one that makes you happy and does a good job of predicting the filter.
So therefore I make predictions in public so that you can see how I'm doing.
So my prediction on this was, on the bomber, was that he was a older, crazy Republican.
He's 56.
He registered for the first time in 2016 as a Republican.
According to CNN. So unless he planned this since 2016, it's very likely he's just a crazy older Republican.
So exactly what I told you it would be.
Now, let's talk about...
So there's still some people who are going to be arguing false flag.
But here's the other thing arguing against a false flag.
Oh, and the other thing I predicted is that within the hour, you would see fake social media pages.
And sure enough, within the hour, there was a fake social media page that tried to pretend he was a Democrat.
So CNN has debunked that, assuming they got that right.
Now, of course, we're still in the fog of war.
So you can never say anything certain, even at this point, right?
But it looks like I called this down to the threads.
But let's talk about the other interesting element.
Because the midterms are coming and because it's the age of Trump, Because it's the age of Trump, everything is political.
So let's look at this through the political lens about the midterms and about Trump.
So I just tweeted this a few minutes ago, and I'll just read it to you because it's worded so perfectly.
I tweeted, if you are tracking the persuasion optics, President Trump employed all available resources to keep top Democrats, his biggest critics and the press safe.
And he announced his strong law and order success in front of a cheering young black audience.
That just happened.
Did you see the actual announcement?
There's some kind of young black leadership group that's very pro-Trump who was in the White House.
He was going to be talking to them anyway.
And then this news comes in.
So, man, does this guy know how to take advantage of a crisis?
So it turned almost instantly from Trump supporter who gets incited by Trump and looks to bomb Democrats into there's a crazy white guy, exactly the people that the anti-Trumpers fear.
So it's a crazy white guy who threatened top Democrats as well as Trump's critics and the press, the other enemies of Trump.
And Trump employed strong, maximum law and order resources, with no hesitation, who very efficiently and impressively solved this, we think.
It looks solved. It's still in alleged territory.
You have to be careful here.
But it looks like they solved it in a couple of days, and they were really on it much earlier than that.
Oh, somebody's saying he's Native American.
Well, that may be, but we're talking about the optics.
If you see a picture of him, he looks like a white guy.
I'm just talking about the picture.
I haven't checked his DNA, so I can't talk about anything else.
But if you're the president, you just had one of the best moments of your presidency, Which will not be reported that way.
So the reporting will still just line up along a political divide.
But that's just the chatter.
Remember the visuals, the visuals win.
And the visual story is that there was a strong law enforcement success.
And that the president turned against his own supporter, a guy who at least looks like a white guy.
You know, he may have some different DNA. But it looks like the president just protected his biggest critics by using a lot of law enforcement.
So that could not be a better persuasion approach This is a persuasion thing to actually go against a member of his own party who looked like a supporter.
And then he announces it in front of a bunch of cheering young African-American future leaders.
It doesn't get better than that.
But! But!
There's an even deeper persuasion effect that even I wouldn't have been aware of except for the book Persuasion.
Now this is speculative, but I think it might matter.
You are aware that people who are exposed to pictures of the American flag are more likely to vote Republican.
So that's been tested.
People who are primed just by images of the flag tend to vote Republican in a measurably higher degree.
So speculating, what do you think would be the effect on voters to have lots and lots of images of law enforcement succeeding?
And succeeding is something that we all agree on.
There's nobody of any color, persuasion, religion, gender.
There's nobody who didn't want this person caught.
100% agreement.
And law enforcement is the image.
You're going to see successful law enforcement person after successful law enforcement person doing awesome things.
My speculation is that that primes people to vote Republican, simply because of the way we associate law and order with Trump and with Republicans at a higher level than we associate it with the other side.
So for purely irrational reasons, This should play very well into President Trump and the Republicans' hands.
Now the downside, and of course there's always a downside, is that the anti-Trump press will spend a little time talking about the news, but fairly quickly they're going to pivot into, well, we told you it's a Trump supporter and he got all wound up by the President's rhetoric.
So that's coming.
But once it is demonstrated that this person is clearly not like normal people and that the president acted against him, it's kind of hard to say that this is because of the rhetoric versus a crazy guy.
So the crazy guy, you know, all bets are off if it's a crazy guy, right?
If it's a crazy guy, then...
Then it helps the President's case and the Republicans.
All right. News is still coming in, so...
Is there a reason you have no one that loves you?
So there's still people who think he's a crazy liberal who...
Who registered to vote for the first time as a Republican in 2016.
Presumably so he could vote for Trump.
Now here's the other evidence you have if you're still stuck on the false flag idea, and I know some of you will be.
If you are a false flag perpetrator, one of the very important things that you want to do is not get caught.
That's like way at the top.
Of a successful false flag operation is that the person doing the false flag operation doesn't get caught.
Because the getting caught is sort of the end of the game, because they can always find out what the real story is after they catch you.
And if your primary objective was the false flag, which means your sub-primary objective is don't get caught, otherwise it's not really a false flag, the don't get caught part is not really consistent with putting Trump stickers all over your van.
Now I know what you're going to say.
Oh, it's a redirection.
It's a trick. Because a Trump supporter, you know, you'd be trying to make it look like he's a Trump supporter, and how else would you do it?
You'd put Trump supporters stickers all over your van.
But would you put so many on there that it attracted attention?
Would you put so many on there that you looked crazy, which would work against your concept?
Would you draw attention to yourself in a specific way that was guaranteed to get your van vandalized and your ass kicked?
If you wanted to avoid the attention of law enforcement for a while, because you're the guy who did the false flag, so you just want to stay off all the radar for a while, would you drive around in a van that anybody would know as a fight starter?
That was no normal van.
That was a fight starting van.
You could park that just about anywhere and by the time you got back from the store, people would be dismantling it and keying it because it has Trump stuff all over it.
Now what does that lead to?
Well, usually some kind of legal thing.
So if you're telling me that this is how this clever lefty pretended to be a Republican, I say to you, it's time to let go.
It's just time to let go.
But again, I'll say it again, anything's possible.
Anything's possible.
Scott is putting too much trust in CNN. No, I acknowledge the point that we're still in the fog of war, and that would include all of the networks.
So you should expect to see some of this information modified.
One of the things I expect to see modified is that what we understand about how the packages got delivered was probably wrong And we'll learn how they really were delivered later.
And it probably is just this guy doing it himself.
But maybe not.
Anything's possible. So, no, I'm not putting too much faith in any part of the media yet.
First 24 hours, you've got to have a lot of skepticism.
But what it's looking like is a crazy older Republican, which is what I predicted.
Now, because my life is a living hell on Twitter...
I had also made a joke before I made my clear prediction, in which I said it in these words, prediction, it's a crazy older Republican.
So I wanted to make sure it was as clear as possible what the prediction was.
But before that, I made a joke which people are going to interpret as me being wrong.
And the joke was that my first impression was that it was probably Republican until I saw that the bombs didn't work.
Alright, now people who don't understand jokes...
People who don't understand jokes...
We'll think, oh, he was really predicting it was a Republican.
Anyway, people will look at the joke and they'll imagine that that was a prediction.
And that's why I clearly and then multiple other times, including on Periscope and on Twitter, said as clearly and probably five times that it was a crazy older Republican.
So, we'll see.
Could be wrong, but that's what it looks like now.
▲
Export Selection