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Kissinger On The Revolution
00:06:38
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| So she said to Putin that nothing like this has happened for a hundred years and isn't this so remarkable? | |
| And I think Boris said something to the effect of actually Russia has never been a vassal state until now, so it's been longer than a hundred years. | |
| And I think that's very accurate. | |
| I was kind of reminded of A comment about, I think, Kissinger, it's all legendary, but Kissinger asked him, what are your opinions on the French Revolution? | |
| And he said, it's too early to tell. | |
| I actually looked that up today because I wanted to write something up on this, but apparently Kissinger might have been asking him about the 1968. | |
| Revolution in Paris, or revolution in quotes. | |
| So it actually, the comment is less ponderous in that context, but it's still a very interesting comment, and it gets at a kind of longer, much longer time frame, one kind of lacking development in a way in the Asian mind. | |
| And I think it is kind of telling in that degree, even if it is apocryphal. | |
| But I've heard a lot of There seems to be a common thread among people saying that this is a disaster and how could this be good? | |
| You know, China and Russia are linking up and this is going to be bad for America. | |
| I think it certainly is a change, a move away from a unipolar world. | |
| And that emerged after 1991. | |
| And I think it's definitely, at some point, this is going to affect the Chimerica relationship. | |
| I mean, this came in coincidence with talks about banning TikTok. | |
| Those are just two random data points, but I think it's significant that they were all happening at the same time. | |
| And Blinken explicitly said that... | |
| He didn't name the consequences, but he said there are going to be major consequences if Beijing begins assisting Russia in its war effort in Ukraine. | |
| And, you know, ostensibly, you could say Beijing was there to promote their peace plan, which I read, and it's just this completely two-dimensional thing that is almost like a parody of what... | |
| Asians would come up with, where it just said things like, we need to get away from Cold War thinking. | |
| That was almost the thing that stood out and vague talk apiece and something. | |
| But there's nothing there. | |
| I think the main thing is that you can imagine Russia becoming a vassal state on a whole host of ways. | |
| They could start pumping gas, obviously, into China. | |
| They have huge natural gas reserves, as we all know. | |
| If they do conquer Ukraine, you've got a bread basket that can go and feed China. | |
| China can't exist without imports of agricultural goods. | |
| That's a bit dubious, but I think that's a real thing. | |
| And particularly if the Chimerica thing ends, I can see China kind of soft peddling any criticism of the invasion of Ukraine as basically a way of saying, well, we might do this to Taiwan and you guys, you know, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. | |
| We're not going to criticize Russia too harshly so that we don't get criticized. | |
| I mean, there's a lot going on here. | |
| There's just a vassal status of Russia in terms of people. | |
| There's an overabundance of Asian males in China. | |
| Maybe they're looking for some Russian wives. | |
| I don't know. | |
| There's a natural alliance, a geographic alliance as well. | |
| But there's no doubt of who will be the big brother in this relationship. | |
| I mean, after the Second World War, when Mao visited Moscow and... | |
| You know, Stalin basically said, I'm going to look westward, you look eastward, we'll run the world together. | |
| They were all buddy-buddies. | |
| Clearly, the Soviet Union, it was the vanguard of history, it was the engine of all this stuff, it was the guy on top. | |
| Now the situation is reversed. | |
| But anyway, I guess what I would say, just to kind of express my own personal feeling on this, is that I don't see it as a disaster at all. | |
| You know, these things wax and wane, and you can go from, you know, Moscow on top in alliance with China, then there's a division of China in the Nixon era, and now China's on top of Moscow, and there's a division of the world. | |
| I mean, all of these things can come and go, and whether they're good or not is irrelevant on some cases. | |
| They just express the changes in population and economics, etc. | |
| I ultimately think it's a positive development because it kind of shores up East and West. | |
| It gives us borders. | |
| I don't know why people are terrified about no longer having China under our thumb or something. | |
| I mean, it's natural that they're going to grow up and leave. | |
| I think the Chimerica arrangement has been pretty disastrous in many ways. | |
| And I think a little bit of xenophobia is healthy. | |
| So I just see all of this as positive, in fact. | |
| And I don't think it's going to damage America. | |
| I think in some ways this strong division of the world and clear boundaries are going to actually help us be stronger and have a... | |
| I don't think this is a good thing for Russia. | |
| I think just being swallowed by the dragon is going to be a long-term devastating thing for Russia. | |
| And they fear regime change by the West or losing the war. | |
| Well, I would fear total dissolution, like literally being dissolved into a population of over a billion. | |