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Nov. 11, 2022 - Rudy Giuliani
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Midterm 2022 Insights | Rudy Giuliani | November 11th 2022 | Ep 288
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Hello, this is Rudy Giuliani with another edition of Rudy's Common Sense.
Today we come to you the morning after the 2022 midterm election.
So this is the first reaction to a very important election, and we are in – we're in a beautiful barn in New Hampshire because we were here to cover the Bulldog Uh, race, uh, as a key Senate race.
It's quite obvious had Republicans won that we wouldn't be in so much doubt right now, but they didn't, which was a disappointment and a miscalculation in terms of all of the polls and all of the experts with regard to the red wave.
Now, let me, let me preface that with the fact that, uh, no one made, uh, New Hampshire a A sure Republican state.
In fact, at the very end, it was a leaning Democrat state.
But there was still the underlying notion that if the red wave were big enough, it would stretch to New Hampshire.
On the other hand, Carolyn Leavitt, who was running against Chris Pappas, at various times had as much as a five-point lead.
And she lost in what is a swing district, two congressional districts.
New Hampshire, one traditionally Republican, the one that she lost, and one traditionally Democrat, which also had looked at one point to be in jeopardy, but in fact, let's call New Hampshire, let's use North, Middle, and South, and let's call New Hampshire the upper waves of the red wave, and it didn't reach New Hampshire.
Nor did it reach New York, as you know, to my great disappointment and to the disappointment of many of us who really believe that New York is in.
So this is more than just a political situation, that this is catastrophic for New York, given 20 years of Democratic governors who have ruined the state.
And since we've had a Democrat mayor, now the second one, the city is going back to the way it was before I was mayor.
Not just with regard to crime, but with regard to homelessness, quality of life, even other people's desires, you know, about the future of the city.
When I became mayor, 70% to 80% of the people of the city thought it was going the wrong direction.
That was 1994.
When I left, 80% thought it was going the right direction.
We're back to 75% to 80% going in the wrong direction.
And maybe the best poll of all, New York is leading the country in Out-migration.
People voting with their feet because the other people are voting blindly Democrat.
20 years in a row, two governors go out in a scandal, we elect another Democrat who has two scandals.
Something wrong with that and we'll go into that in another podcast.
This one we're going to try to do the first reaction to the 2022 elections and a couple of things we can learn right away because it may change, you know, Both the election may change a bit and our reactions may change as we learn more, which is what should happen.
But it's always good to know the first reaction.
So let me thank all the people who are joining us on.
Let's see, we have Facebook and we have YouTube.
And we have all of you people on the podcast and and you're joining us for what we promised last night would be our Our update, because things left last night a bit confusing.
Well, they're a teeny bit more, they're a teeny bit more worked out by now, but they're not where they should be.
So the 2024 elections have virtually started with all the discussion of what does DeSantis's victory mean with regard to, is he the front runner or is Trump the front runner, or is there a front runner on the Republican side?
Equally as active on the Democrat side, is Biden running?
Democrats and Republicans can both take something out of this in terms of a victory.
Probably, in honesty, Republicans a little bit more because they have the actually concrete victory of taking over the House.
That's probably the biggest, most practical, and most important result of last night's election.
Because it means, and particularly if it's going to be more than just a 3-4 vote margin, which it looks like it will be, it means Biden can be held accountable.
And Biden can be blocked.
Everything has to pass the House and the Senate.
If he tries to go too far in the direction of President by dictate, as he was in his first three, four months.
Too much in the direction of a dictator, quite frankly.
Well, then you've got Jim Jordan sitting right there, and there's no better investigator in the world than Jim Jordan.
Particularly, he doesn't have a Paul Ryan to sit on top of him.
And I think he and McCarthy, I think that's the deal.
McCarthy is going to be the speaker.
The deal he made with Jordan, because Jordan probably could have given him a real contest.
I think he could have beaten him.
Don't know.
Can't be sure.
But Jordan, he had become allies, and I'm certain, without having a contract in front of me between the two of them, that the deal there is that Jordan gets to investigate what he and his colleagues believe should be investigated.
Had they been given that discretion, had they been given that discretion way back when Ryan was Speaker, we may not have had the whole collusion, garbage, and nonsense, and fraud, Tyranny, treason.
But in any event, let's stick with 2024.
First practical matter, where are we right now as we sit here this moment?
And I know you may see this as a podcast a little bit later, and by then it may have gone a little further along.
But the bad news is it's not going to go too fast, too further along.
Every state is decided with regard to the Senate, or called, I should say.
They could always be wrong.
These are, as we know, networks have been wrong before.
I've checked these.
I don't think any of these are wrong.
I think all of these are correct.
And I'm right now putting in Utah and Iowa as definite Republican Senate victories.
So we have basically 96 definite Senate seats.
The group that wasn't up, they all stayed.
Only one-third comes up every two years.
So here's the way it looks right now.
Right now, there are four undecided states.
Take them out.
It's 48-48.
Can't be Can't be closer to that.
If somehow those states didn't vote, the Democrats would have the majority because they have Pamela Harris as the President of the Senate, and she can break all ties.
And by virtue of that, they get all the committee assignments, they get all the right to investigate issue subpoenas.
The power is enormous.
That goes along with the leadership.
People should really think about voting for the Senate or the House as voting for the leadership because that has more impact than the singular member even a really really effective one because that leadership brings along an automatic group of an automatic bag really let's say of institutional power so if let's say let's say Let's say Joe Manchin in West Virginia.
You really like Joe, but in fact you don't like the Democratic leadership.
Well, you really should vote against Joe because you're voting for the Democratic leadership.
Or what was done by Ryan in In Ohio, which may have been catastrophic for him, he won by a lot more than people thought, lost by a lot more than people thought to Vance.
He announced a couple of days before he basically wasn't bringing in any of the leadership of his party because he didn't agree with it.
But then again, he was asking people to vote for the leadership of his party.
I mean, with all due respect to Congressman, now private citizen, Ryan, he's not all that powerful.
But I'd say that to any of them.
The leadership is more powerful.
So, the leadership of the House is going to surely be Republican.
That is a major change.
That's a concrete major change.
Everything else we're talking about now is theoretical, may have a great effect, may not have a great effect.
Some of it will.
So the states that are open right now, let me just show you this on the whiteboard.
You can also, we'll show it to you on the map as well.
The states that are open right now are Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Now I put them in that order for a very special reason.
I put them in that order because that's the order in which they're going to get decided.
With the Georgia one down here at the bottom, okay, Georgia here, it's not going to decide until December.
So that may or may not be critical to the leadership of the Senate.
So let's take a look at how it's going to go.
Right now, probably the first state to be decided, and it could be today, it could be tomorrow, Probably not beyond tomorrow.
It's the state of Wisconsin.
You can see it up there on the map, right in the very middle of the country, basically, and almost as north as Minnesota, but not almost as north as Michigan or not.
And I may say to my colleague Ted, it really looks like the northern part of Wisconsin should belong to Wisconsin and not Michigan, but that's okay.
I won't say anything.
I wonder if they ever had a land dispute about that, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Maybe when the Lions and the Packers play, they'd fight that out on the football field.
But in any event, right now, right now, Senator Johnson is beating Mandela Barnes by 1% with 98 to 99% of the vote cast.
Now, unlike some of the other states, that'll have to do recounts and absentee ballots, and I think almost all of that's been counted in.
And it's been done with the usual Wisconsin efficiency, which made 2020 an aberration, really.
And also, I think it's a state that after 2020 said, never again.
So I think that this is going to turn out to, um, uh, stand even though it's very tight, uh, tighter than some others that they're not ready to call because they can't rely on the counting process.
So I think that, uh, I believe, although it hasn't been called yet, we would be pretty safe in giving Wisconsin to the Republicans with a victory for Senator Johnson.
I am so confident of that.
I do not think that when you look at this later, when they make the call, it's going to be different than that.
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So that gets Republicans now to a tantalizing 49 to 48, as you can see at the top, as you can see at the top of the map.
In red, 49.
of the map in red 49, in blue 48.
And now we have three undecided states because one of them has
now gone red for Republican.
Okay?
So we'll just take that one off.
Wisconsin's decided.
We're down to three now.
Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.
Unless I'm very, very surprised.
The next one to be decided will be Nevada.
So you say, well, Nevada looks pretty solid.
We've got Laxalt ahead.
He's ahead by 2.1%.
We're in the late 90s in terms of votes, 96, 97, 98.
He's ahead by 2.1 percent.
We're in the late 90s in terms of votes, 96, 97, 98.
Hard to make up 2.5 percent at that point.
Unable to be calculated, however, is there are a good many, we don't know how many, outstanding
ballots.
you.
Mail-in, absentee, military.
And in the state of Nevada, those votes generally break Democrat.
Maybe not as heavily as some other states, but you would say that the Democrat would get a bump from that.
Enough so that probably they're not going to make a call until those start to get counted, and that's going to be, I think, in the next two days.
So we're probably looking at Two more days, unless somebody moves real fast in Nevada, before that's counted.
And it is hard to make a definitive call on how that's going to come out.
You would have to say there is a better chance it'll come out Republican than Democrat, because he does have a 2% plus lead.
There is a discrepancy in the mail-ins, but that's a big margin to make up with almost all the votes counted.
Plus, this has been a year in which it hasn't been consistently true that the mail-in ballots have been overwhelmingly Democrat.
I guess as Republicans have become more used to The idea of mail-in, etc.
They're using it now, although it is still true that Democrats use it more, feel more comfortable with it.
Republicans can't get over the fact that they believe maybe they were cheated by the use of it.
I mean, that's a large percentage of the party.
So whatever the press wants to say about, you know, you can't think that you can't feel it.
You can't you can't tell people what to think, except if you're a communist.
And so you've got to be realistic about the fact that lots of Republicans do not want to put their hands, their vote in the hands of what they think are the crooks that are going to end up handling their mail-in ballot.
Maybe there'll be a day in which this system is reliable enough so the Republicans will feel differently.
Unlike 2020, however, There were more Republicans that voted, and there are some states in which Republicans equaled the turnout of Democrats.
So it's getting a little closer.
Where does that leave us?
That leaves us so that if I had to make a choice, but would not be surprised if I was wrong, I would call that for Laxalt.
The 2.1% lead.
The kind of scrutiny that exists now that would make cheating really stupid.
So I would, I would, I'd put that in a column.
Oh my goodness.
Like we, like we used to have before the election took place, but it isn't over yet.
I would put Nevada into, into like a, a likely, likely Republican column right now.
But that, according to this map, this interactive map, would get Republicans to 50.
Well, you say now Republicans have 50.
They should share the Senate.
No, no, no, no, no, no, no.
One must remember that the vice president gets to cast a tying vote in the Senate.
So that out of that, I mean, you could have out of that fashion joint leadership, right?
Like they do in Israel sometimes, you know, two years for one and two years for another.
But not, no, if you are the party of the president, you get the advantage, that one vote advantage.
So at 50-50, it becomes yours.
Now, Republicans have benefited from that.
Democrats have benefited from that.
It's not an unfair way to do it.
You could do it the other way, but it's not unfair.
So if nothing else happened, if nothing else happened but that, right?
Then Democrats would still be in charge, even though there are 50 Republican votes, with two states now outstanding.
So we've taken care of Nevada or Nevada, whichever you prefer, like Missouri or Missouri, whichever you prefer.
And depending on the part of the state you're in, they'll get really angry at you.
Now we go to Arizona.
Now Arizona's almost like the reverse of Nevada.
The Democrat has what appears to be a pretty darn good lead, Kelly, over Masters, about three, maybe even a little bigger than Laxall's.
You'd think you'd give that to the Democrat.
However, Arizona has more ballots out Uh, then, uh, I guess, uh, I think Nevada and also, um, it's got more of a confusing history about who they vote for.
Like, uh, in the, in the, um, ballots that were found after in the long count that took place in 2020, um, Trump gained votes and came closer and closer and closer to winning, but he fell short.
So it's, there is no guarantee that these absentee ballots are going to break in some big way, uh, for Kelly.
They could break for Master.
That's going to hold, plus unlike, um, Wisconsin, uh, and I think Nevada, cause I haven't heard, uh, complaints, a lot of complaints about the voting in Arizona, a lot.
Including, uh, even some ballots that were declared, uh, invalid and got to be determined if they are valid.
Uh, a lot of mistakes at the polling places.
Don't know if they're deliberate, don't know if they're just incompetent.
Um, but it doesn't matter at this point they exist, which now makes, uh, now makes, uh, relying on what's going to happen less, uh, uh, less sure.
It also means you could go into recounts in court, just legitimate court cases.
I mean, if there are irregularities, they should be litigated.
You can have the wrong result, both by cheating on purpose, or you can have the wrong result because people are incompetent, they're lazy, they make mistakes.
It's like any other thing, any other part of life.
There are a certain number of people that do election counting that are grossly negligent.
It just happens.
It's a human endeavor.
It looks like Arizona is suffering from that.
It looks like a lot of the other states have kind of straightened their act out.
Now, we're not going to know for a few days because this is when you collect all that.
It doesn't come in until after the election.
You don't have time before the election to go through it.
So, I mean, I could be speaking too quickly about that.
But I'm not speaking too quickly when I say Arizona has a load of problems, which makes Kelly's margin, you put the two things together, it could change.
But I think in fairness, like we gave Nevada leaning Republican, since the Democrat has the lead going into this mixed up process.
That may stretch out for two weeks or so, which is unacceptable, by the way.
You want the American people to trust this system, then the Don vote should be done by now.
If they can do it in France, I don't know why we can't do it.
Well, I actually do know why we can't do it, because we don't want to do it.
But, in any event, let's go with Arizona right now, and we'll do exactly with Arizona, we'll do exactly with Arizona what we did with Nevada, except we'll make it a mirror image, we'll make it a leaning Democrat.
So now, what does that mean?
That means if it comes out the way I just said, okay?
If it comes out the way I just said, it is 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and Georgia But Georgia doesn't happen until December, because Georgia is going to be a runoff, again, like it was last time.
It's going to be a runoff, right here, in December.
And Georgia's going to be a runoff between Walker and Warnock, and depending on the minute you look at the screen, one or the other's ahead.
Like, earlier this morning, Warnock was ahead by five votes.
Now, Walker's ahead by eight votes.
And at this point, it doesn't matter.
They're so close.
They're statistically tied.
But they're below 50.
And they're not getting above 50.
Now, unless somebody really cheats, they're not getting above 50.
So we're going to a runoff.
In fact, I think it'd be good for the country and everybody else if they wouldn't do lots of fooling around because Whatever you think of the 2020 election, there were an enormous number of problems and leaving people in various stages of not trusting the result at all to not trusting the result somewhat.
That's not right.
It shouldn't be that way.
And it isn't the fault of our citizens.
It's the fault of the way in which the election was conducted, including changing all the rules.
Rules that now have been determined to be unconstitutional.
Like in Pennsylvania.
So the result in Pennsylvania, the most you can say for it was it was obtained under illegal, unconstitutional rules.
You can't do that.
You gotta straighten this out so people can trust the election.
So Georgia, gonna be a runoff.
And of course that will determine what happens.
If it goes Republican, so let's make it Republican, On our little fun map here, we have a 5149 Republican Senate.
And what does that add?
I mean, why is that so important?
What does that add to the fact that there's a Republican House no matter what?
Well, it adds something.
I mean, first thing it adds is you can present legislation to the president, which will force him to veto it or force him, yeah, force him to veto it.
Very important because you can you can set out a whole agenda of what you're going to do if the American people give you the presidency in 24 meeting Republicans as opposed to if you have the house in which you can block things, but you can't present anything.
So it is a big difference.
It isn't as critical as absolutely having one of them.
So that, and particularly the House, because the House is more aggressive, but it is very important.
Now, if it goes Democrat, this is what happens.
Let's make it solid blue there for a second, much as I hate to do it.
Then it's a straight 50-50 Republican.
It's a straight 50-50 Republican.
And the fact is, and the fact is that then you have Kamala Harris.
Casting, put it right here in the middle, you have Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote, and then we have to see.
Now, how do we avoid that?
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Let's get this back to undecided.
We avoid that only one way, and that is if the Democrats can pick up, in addition to Nevada, which we gave them, if they could pick up Arizona or Wisconsin.
If we're wrong about Arizona or, I'm sorry, if we're wrong about Nevada or Wisconsin, Then the Democrats would have blocked the Republicans from going over 50.
So let's take a look.
We've given Wisconsin to the Republicans.
So, if that switches, right?
And we end up with that going Democrat, then it becomes 50 to 49.
Republican, before we even go to Georgia, and the most Georgia can do is give us a tied Senate, which means Democrat.
Let's put it back now as Republican and show you the other way it's possible.
The other way it's possible is the same thing in Nevada.
If they were to win Nevada, if those absentee ballots, then it's 50-49, and Georgia doesn't mean anything really except a tied Senate.
Which gives it to the Democrats, of course, a 50-50 or 51-49 Republican is not a safe margin, largely because of the fragility of life, right?
I mean, anybody can die.
One person dies on the side that has the The one vote margin and everybody changes offices.
So, um, this is important.
I do think it's going to end up as we say, uh, Georgia.
Now what's going to happen in Georgia in the runoff?
I think that depends on how we go into Georgia.
If we go into Georgia and, um, and we have, um, and we have the thing already decided for the Democrats, in other words, They take one of those two states, and if they take one, it would more likely be Nevada than Wisconsin.
Then I think the Republicans would have a hard time winning it.
The incentive to win it is that much less, even though it's important.
The difference between a one-vote margin and a two-vote margin is the difference between one person dying and making a difference and not.
But I think it's so close right now that almost anything can throw it off.
And if the Democrats already have it, I don't know that you're going to raise the kind of Republican money for it after being exhausted with all the money that's been raised that can put it over the top.
And you might very well be able to raise a Democrat money to kind of seal the deal.
On the other hand, if it's the whole ballgame, If we go down the wire, and it's 50-49, and Georgia's hanging out there.
Georgia is, yes, a sling state.
But at the core, it's a Republican state.
At the core, it's a conservative state.
A lot of its problems have been, it's in the center of disputes within the Republican Party, over the 2020 election in particular.
The thought that Kemp and who's now the governor and Raffsenberger did not help the president in the sense of being fair.
Now, a lot of people say, oh, they did.
The Democrats would say, oh, they didn't help and cheat.
From a lot of Republicans point of view, it's there was a resentment of Kemp against the president for reasons that a lot of people understand, I think.
No.
And And he took a very hard position, refused to look at data that a lot of people thought was very valid.
So there was real anger at him.
That didn't spill over into the election, but it certainly was existing in 2020.
There was anger at the president by other Republicans.
That's not there now.
That won't be there in this election campaign.
Kemp, as much as the Trump people, as much as the Senate, everybody wants the Senate.
So Republicans will be united in wanting to elect Herschel Walker.
And I think it'll really play out what I was talking about before, that a vote for a member of the Senate or the House is a vote for the leadership, because now it really is a vote for the leadership.
I mean, the election in Georgia becomes a national election.
They're going to decide who runs the House of Representatives.
So you can say you're voting for Warnock, but you don't like the leadership.
But in fact, you're voting for the leadership.
I think that will doom Warnock because I don't see Georgia voting for a leadership that,
you know, wants to basically, it's the Biden administration, wants to put the parents in
jail if they complain about the children in school, wants to mutilate their children sexually
without permission of the parents, wants to raise taxes, and they probably will try to
if they get, if they can get control, although they should be blocked in that regard by the House.
Uh, so...
Supports a foreign policy that I would say probably a majority of Georgians find dangerous.
A lot of that was suppressed based on the intra Republican fighting.
A lot of it was suppressed because of the immediacy of the abortion situation.
So what we can what we can right now, I think, take from this election.
And there were there really were This was a two-issue election, really.
Had some sub-issues, but it was a two-issue election.
And, for a while, a three-issue election.
The two issues were economy and crime.
Economy, number one.
Crime, a very, very, very close second.
So, and abortion, for a while, was equal to it.
Abortion fell back to a fifth or sixth issue, but I think it did its damage.
It did its damage in not defeating, not taking away the Republican House, possibly not taking away the Republican Senate, but certainly by putting it in jeopardy, but by keeping the numbers down and switching a lot of women in particular.
Who had become very disgusted with Biden and may have really been brought in on things like the treatment of children, crime, the economy.
Abortion took at least a critical number of them.
So that elections like victories in New York, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire became difficult or impossible.
Although there were a lot of house victories in those places.
But those are discrete districts that have their own views.
So abortion was a big issue.
I do not believe in Georgia this will be a key issue.
Whatever damage it's done, it's done.
That's baked into whatever happened now.
I think this will come off on the economy, crime, of course, leadership, which is And it will be individual to Georgia if it remains at 50-49.
And I think there's the possibility that over a period of time, as we begin the 2024 election, the open border and the whole issue of children and how they are treated in school, how their parents are treated by the Justice Department, who really is in control of education, The state or children?
The Democrat Party pretty much has the uniform position that it's the state that's in charge.
And they're going to have a hard time taking an opposite position since, aside from George Soros, their biggest funder is the teachers union and industry, and they solidly believe that parents don't mean a damn thing.
I mean, they are cynical about parents and of course they can lie about it, but you can go back and, man, we can play all kinds of tapes.
Particularly of my head of my teacher's union for a while, for a long time when I was mayor, Randy Weingarten.
That's a straight out and out Marxist, and parents are the enemy.
And she's somehow convinced the Justice Department that maybe they should be considered for RICO prosecutions.
That will all come up in Georgia.
But if it doesn't, The next two years, I think, will take a while before we see what emerges as the top two or three issues.
It always turns on what's happening when you get closer to the election.
But as we come out of this election, economy was the number one issue.
Crime was number two.
Abortion was number three in that it took a certain number of people that would have voted on crime and the economy, not the majority, but enough so that in states that might have been possible or susceptible to a big Republican wave, instead they got a limited Republican wave.
I believe abortion limited that wave.
Open borders and children really never emerged in this election, let's say, like children did in the Virginia election with Governor McAuliffe.
And foreign policy was hardly an issue, which I'm surprised about, because our foreign policy is a mess.
And we're in great danger.
And we have a China that's, you know, now past our Navy.
And we got a Russia that's talking about nuclear war, but somehow foreign policy, that's why I have a line here, never made it above, never made it above the line right here.
So, we'll be back with you later in the week.
By that time, don't expect, don't expect we're going to have this decided.
By that time, I do believe we'll have Wisconsin decided, and there is a chance That we will have Nevada decided.
I don't think we'll have Arizona decided.
We may, because Kelly's got a pretty good margin and Laxos got a pretty good margin.
And of course, we will not have Georgia decided until December and the election in December.
But I think we'll know more about what the ramifications of all of this are.
And we can also start Taking a look at what is it going to mean with the Republican House, and are we ever going to really hold the Bidens accountable for 30 years of vast criminality?
And are we going to hold them responsible for double-crossing the United States?
Let's see.
I mean, taking all that money from China and Russia, I don't know when that ever happened in the history of our country.
I mean, just think if Eisenhower or Kennedy or Reagan took that kind of money from the Soviet Union.
Are we going to see us go back to one standard, one people?
Or are we going to have two standards, one for elite Democrats like they have in communist countries for the communists, and then for everybody else, you know, you get tortured or persecuted.
Or treated unfairly.
It's not even you get treated fairly.
You get punched around.
A Republican House can start to repair that.
And by the way, this country doesn't become united for all of Biden's demented garbage.
This country doesn't become united until we do have one standard for everyone.
A country that has two standards.
In the media, among the powerful businesses and the social media, and also, most importantly, with government and with the administration of justice.
That's a country that can never be united.
That has to end.
I mean, you want to unite the country, we go back to one standard for everyone and we hold Democrats as accountable, or not, as Republicans.
And we have a media that presents you with the truth and certainly doesn't engage in mass communist Nazi-like censorship.
So I think a Republican Congress can start us on that road.
I think it will.
So we'll be back in two days, three days.
And God bless America.
And despite the fact that there's a certain level of disappointment, there's also a certain level of satisfaction.
We're in a better position now than we were before with the house, much better.
There's also great respect for seeing the system work, it looks like, not perfectly, but within the degree of imperfection that is acceptable among human beings.
Maybe we'll start the process of trusting again.
Thank you.
See you in a few days.
God bless America.
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