Will There be a Red Wave This Midterm? | Rudy Giuliani | November 4th 2022 | Ep 287
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Hello everyone, this is Rudy Giuliani back with another Rudy's Common Sense, another episode.
And this one, this one should normally be the last one before the Tuesday election, but I think it's the penultimate one.
What does that mean?
We may have one more on Sunday or Monday because next Wednesday We'll just be celebrating, I hope.
I hope.
I'm not over-optimistic, but I'm gonna take you through these sort of as an overview, and then I'm gonna ask you, if you've got questions about this, there's a way to question me on it.
You go to, you've got several options.
At 8 o'clock every night now until the election, I will be on YouTube, I'll be on Facebook, Good chance we'll be on Getter as well.
We may well be on Instagram, but we'll be on those three for sure.
So between eight and nine, even a little bit later, you can call me and ask me questions about this until we get together again.
Of course, you can get me on wabcradio.com, anywhere in the country, between three and four this afternoon, tomorrow afternoon, every day but Saturday, and then on Sunday, the best show of all, With Dr. Ryan uncovering the truth.
That's between 10 and 11 and we'll devote that to the election this weekend.
And then you can also get me on bbsradio.com.
That would be on Thursday between 5 and 7.
And then on election night, Tuesday, between 6 and 7, and we will do an election night special also for you.
But we'll give you more information about that.
So there are plenty of ways to follow up on this.
Or you can just go to RudyGiulianiCS.com and send me a text.
And we're anxious to hear them because, you know, it's your reaction tells us a lot about how close we are to getting this right and how close we are to getting it wrong.
So I studied as much as I could.
Of the different, I mean the obvious ones are the Cook Report and Real Clear Politics.
Separate analysis of that and then all of the different polls.
There's the Republicans, the Democrats.
I'm gonna try to get it down to as close as it is on... This would be...
I remember running, this is like the last moment that a candidate really looks at polls.
The campaign manager looks at the tracking polls all weekend.
Some even do away with tracking polls because they say by the end, by now, it's all in the pullout.
Polls don't matter anymore.
It's either there, it's not there, and you're going to pull it out or you're not going to pull it out.
So put your emphasis on getting up off your backside and knocking on doors.
And making calls.
But here's what it looks like.
So let's first take a look at the Senate.
So we will put up on the board what appears to be the most recent, the most recent of the Senate numbers.
2022 Senate Election Interactive Map.
This is a cook political report 2022 senate ratings so it um it has a number that i would tell you is wrong i'm going to tell you exactly how it's wrong and then we're going to come up with our number and then that way we'll go through the analysis essentially there are um there are
According to Giuliani, not the Cook Political Report, let's see if we match, there are 36 Democratic seats in the Senate.
There are 29 Republican seats in the Senate, no matter what happens.
This is not going to change.
They don't come up for two to four years.
There's another eight safe Dem seats and 14 safe Republican seats.
Now, Cook only has 13 safe Republican seats.
I have 14.
And I'm right, and he's wrong, and don't bother worrying about it.
Cook hasn't been right since before Lincoln, I think.
I mean, they always under-poll, please be assured, they always under-poll Republicans.
I don't remember, and there probably are some that I wasn't involved in, but I don't remember a race in which a Democrat did better than expected Oh, I didn't do better than expected.
I'm sorry.
And I don't remember a race in which a Republican ever did better than... I don't ever remember a Republican ever did as bad as expected.
So let's put it this way.
In my races for mayor, whether I won one and I won two, I lost one very narrowly, I won one very narrowly, and I won one by a landslide.
All three of those races, I was behind anywhere from three to 12 points on election day.
Except the one that I won big and I was only ahead by six and I won by 18.
So I'm trying to tell you something about the bolsters.
So here's where it stands right now.
According to Giuliani, and I should tell you also the real clear politics map, but I'm showing you the less favorable Republican map.
There are, according to Cook, there are 47 sure Republicans, 48 sure Democrats.
So 36 Okay.
in the column in which we say sure, Democrat, 30, 29 would fall in the column. Sure. Republican.
Then we have eight safe Democrat seats and 14 safe Republican seats. OK.
So that's pretty much a pretty darn good prediction of.
Of where things will absolutely be.
Cook undercounts both of those by one.
So we have 36 and 8 is 44.
44 safe Dems.
And we have 43 safe Republicans.
All right.
safe Dems and we have 43 safe Republicans. All right. Then we go into the likely and the liens.
The Dems only have three likely and liens.
Three of those.
And they basically are Colorado.
Let's look at some of those there.
New Hampshire.
By the way, wrong.
Wrong.
Wrong.
They're wrong about New Hampshire.
New Hampshire, Colorado.
Let's see if we can find a third one.
New Hampshire, Colorado.
The state of Washington is likely, not Leans.
And the state of Hawaii is definite.
I'm trying to find the other Leaner.
Well, it's here somewhere.
I'm sorry, the Cook Report has only two Leans.
And then they put five into the toss-up category.
So the way I look at it, when you finish with all that gobbledygook, you have 49 Democratic seats, Republican seats, that are in the for sure safe and likely lean category.
And you got about 46 dams.
And then you have two, they have tilting dam.
Which makes it 49, 46.
Or 49, 49.
Now who are the tilts?
So let's now go over what we got left.
So now we have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 states.
We have 10 states left.
And I'm going to do it for you in the order in which they are considered by Cook, who should be working for the Democrat Party, Democrat.
First one that he feels is the strongest in terms of tilting Democrat is Arizona.
That's Kelly against Masters.
That race has Kelly ahead by one in two polls and has Masters ahead by two in one poll.
What do you call that?
We take that one right out of that tilting Democrat column and we make that, that's it.
Arizona is a straight toss up.
Nobody can put that anywhere right now.
Georgia.
Georgia they have Democrat tilting also.
Georgia either, first of all, Walker is going to get more votes than Warnock by a percent or two.
Question is, can he carry over the 50% mark?
Right now, and I'm going to keep this until Monday, right now I would say...
Let's make that one a runoff.
I don't think either, I don't think either, I don't think either Warnock or Walker, and I want Walker to make it for sure, I'm a big supporter, endorsed him, worked for him, but I'm giving you my objective advice here.
I think this is a runoff.
I think nobody gets 50, and I think Walker will have, I think Walker will have like about a one-point lead, maybe even a half-point lead, largely because the state really is conventionally Republican, really.
And Kemp is beating the living daylights out of Abrams.
I mean, it's in double digits and growing.
That has to ultimately help Walker.
It's going to keep a few people off the Warnock ballot.
And some of those people going for Kemp are going to go over and go for Walker because the reasons they're going for Kemp incline them toward Walker.
And the scandals have now kind of evened out when we find out that Warnock, you know, ran over his wife, beat up his wife, has an unbelievably history.
So, but these were listed as like leaning, tilting Democrat, whatever the heck that means.
They're not tilting anywhere.
Georgia, if anything, if I had to make a real pick, and you'd say, when will I pick Walker?
Arizona, I'm still not sure.
I'm still not sure.
I think the last three weeks, Massachusetts has gone tough, but I don't think I don't think I can tell you for sure.
And frankly, I don't know the race as well as some of the others.
So I'm not going to go mislead you where my knowledge isn't as great as when we get into some of these other races, which I got to tell you are kind of crazy here.
crazy here. So now we get into the races that have been considered, do we call them likely
repub?
Likely.
Those are the toss-ups.
That lean is Nevada and Georgia.
And now we go to the ones that are put, for some reason, in the toss-up category.
The first one in that category.
That doesn't belong in that category is the, and I think the one that most likely doesn't belong in that category, is the state of Wisconsin.
Johnson will win that, and he's leading now by more than a margin of error almost everywhere.
Johnson will beat Barnes in that election.
That's Johnson and Barnes.
So, you know, we'll get really fancy here.
We'll write it out in blue, but we'll put a little red mark there.
We'll put a little red mark there.
Okay.
Then we come to Nevada, which is also a tourist upstate for these boys here.
It's also a tourist upstate.
I don't see that at all.
I don't see that at all.
I think Laksal beats Mastos.
I think so.
And I think by a little less, I'm doing it in the order in which I think it's going to be Republican victories here.
So, um, I would say this one is as strong as, so this is a hold.
This is a pickup.
Okay.
And we, and we haven't, um, We haven't lost a seat yet or are in jeopardy of losing a seat because these are both now, Georgia and Arizona, these two are right now Democrat seats.
So we're doing pretty well.
I'm going to change this to blue when I get a chance.
Okay, so now we're at Nevada.
So now we've got four of the eight that will, or ten, that will determine the election.
Now we go to one that maybe I should have put, at least maybe I should have put in front.
That would be North Carolina, and North Carolina, and for some strange reason, I don't believe this, Well, they have Iowa here as leading Republican, as it should be.
So let's go to the other map that they're working with here.
And this is Senate election maps.
There we are.
Senator election maps All right
So North Carolina is going to end up being a Republican state
and I would take that I would take that one off the chart as a even a
leaner That's just a state that we know we're going to win.
We get North Carolina off there, and we go to Iowa, where there is some doubt There is some doubt about Grassley.
Don't see it?
And I will therefore just knock it right out.
And I would say the same thing with Utah and Florida.
Races that are put in the likely and leaning category.
I would say those we can make Republican as well as Florida.
So now if we go back to the map, right?
Now let's go back to the map.
I think we've gotten everybody.
I think we've gotten everybody in.
We've got in Florida.
We've got in Iowa, we've got Utah, we've got North Carolina, we've got, we haven't done Ohio, but that's going to be, Ohio is, you know, still considered, they're looking at it, but that, that's, that's Vance.
Vance wins that one and he wins that one gaining, I would say.
I mean, any question about it?
And I think Johnson beats Barnes.
I think that's, that's a, that's a, Pretty much built into the charts.
I don't have any, any problems with, um, I don't have any problems with, um, the race for, um, for Grassley, as I told you.
So that's going to happen.
And I think the, uh, and Rubio.
So we come down now to the last of the most unusual race of all, and that's the one in PA, the state that was the most unusual in 2024.
Hard to believe that Fetterman is leading in some polls.
Average all the polls out.
Oz has got a lead a little beyond the margin of error, if that.
You could argue that Fetterman's ahead.
I wouldn't want to, but you could.
But I am going to go just on my gut instinct here, just to say that I cannot believe I cannot believe for the life of me that the state of Pennsylvania, after watching Fetterman really make a very successful application for a hospital for about a two-month rehab, like Biden makes a very successful application with a speech the other night for a nursing home, isn't going to be accepted for the mental
I don't mean mentally ill, but mentally ill to take care of his brain damage.
And I think people are also going to realize how cruel this is, because people who have had strokes of that magnitude should be resting.
They shouldn't be put under stress.
And what's more stressed than this?
So I see, ultimately, when you want to play around with this map here, this map that I have in front of me, Which is this latest one that we'll put up is $49.49.
So we'll take a short break and when we come back we'll review that map and we'll show you the finals on the Senate and we'll do the House and then give you sort of a general overview of the whole thing.
We'll be right back.
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Thank you for returning.
So I was working off a map so that I don't make you too optimistic.
I was working off a map that...
I was working off a map that's rather pro-Democrat, and I'm going to show you one that I guess you could argue is rather pro-Republican, and then I'm going to tell you where I am, okay?
So this is a map that ends up with Republicans at 54 and Democrats at 46 in the House.
That's a net change of four.
Now, what would that do?
How would that come about?
That would come about, and the way they get there is as follows.
They get there by making Georgia.
So just so that you can keep up with it here, let's do it again.
They make it possible by taking, and we're going to go red now, of course.
They take New Hampshire, Bulldog, right?
They take Georgia, I think if we put the map up, you'll see that.
Those are in red-lined indications because they're not sure, leaning, likely, almost there.
A few more poles where they're ahead than behind.
Arizona and Nevada.
And they make them R. Okay?
And then the rest go in solid R. The rest go in as solid R. So they say Pennsylvania is basically over.
Oz has won that.
North Carolina has been over for quite some time.
Florida is over.
That's been over for quite some time with a little bit of concern here and there.
They put Georgia here rather than in Republican column.
To the extent that there was any concern about Grassley in Iowa, they have it solidly Grassley.
They do the same thing with Utah, which was one that had some question.
And they end up with 54 Republican seats and 46 Democratic seats, which means that people near microphones in Washington will now be much safer because Chuck Schumer will not be knocking them down.
Now, where are the question marks here?
Well, I mean, to To be perfectly straight about this, New Hampshire, I believe, is going to be Republican, but I don't know that I make it solid yet.
I'm going there in a couple of days, and I'll tell you when I get there.
Georgia, I told you, I think Georgia is going to be a runoff.
So I don't think we're going to find out about Georgia until December.
I think Walker's gonna have the plurality of votes, but I think that's gonna go to a runoff.
Arizona of the two.
Of the two.
Arizona or Nevada.
And only because of Kelly's history with his wife and being an astronaut.
And not because Masters hasn't come back masterfully.
I will, for the purposes of safety, I'll come back to it, make this a question mark.
Okay, I'll make this a question mark.
We'll put that Democratic question mark there.
And I'll make this almost definitely.
Okay?
North Carolina is definitely, Florida is definitely, Iowa is definitely, Utah is definitely,
Pennsylvania is definitely.
Okay, so I'm comfortable with these here.
Okay, which would make it a 50-50.
Democrat, that's why I have a blue here, because Harris becomes, now all we have to do, if we can keep Pennsylvania against Fetterman, who increasingly doesn't seem to know where he is.
North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, and Utah, which we're definitely going to win.
This will take us down from that 50, this will take us to 50 votes right here.
50.
To get the majority we need to win one.
Win one of four.
Want to put them in order you think is the most likely we're going to win.
And we're going to go over this again and have a lot of fun on the podcast, on our special podcast, which we'll try to get out on Sunday or Monday, depending on when we get all the facts and figures in.
I got a lot of people to talk to.
I mean, I talked to Dick Morris, I talked to Steve Bannon, I talked to some Democratic pollsters who don't want you to know I'm talking to them.
I talk to and I get the internals of other polls.
I could spend the whole weekend looking at this.
And I'll be campaigning also for some candidates.
I can't tell you exactly who.
Well, I can tell you I'll be in New Hampshire for some of them, possibly also Pennsylvania.
But which one am I the most certain of these?
I'm going to tell you what.
Maybe because I've campaigned with him the most when he ran before.
I like Laxalt here, right here.
I think he'll be the first one to take us to 51.
I always like 52 because at 51, God forbid, somebody dies, and you're back to President Harris, which is what he calls her.
So, where would I go second for my choice here?
I think we ultimately get this, but we don't get this until December.
So that would get us to 52, but in December.
Bulldog's gonna win.
He had a great debate.
I watched the whole thing, stayed up all night last night because I watched about four debates.
His was the best.
His was the best.
So that would get us, this 51 we can't take yet, so that would get us to 52 by, you know, the end of election day, the day after, or after the four weeks that Pennsylvania figures out that they can't cheat enough to win.
So Rudy's ultimate prediction?
When it all sorts out, After, um, I would say 52 to 50.
Uh, 52 to 49.
Uh, 50... Yeah, 52 to 49 it would be.
Right?
Yeah, 52 to 49 it would be, right?
Yep.
Yeah.
Yep, yep, yep.
And then eventually, eventually, the Democrat number, the Democrat, I would say it's going
to be on election night or the day after, it's going to be 52 to 48.
And by December, it's going to be 53-47.
And this is the result of the runoff that's going to take place in Georgia.
So now let me show you this.
I'm going to keep this.
I may dress it up a little.
I may dress this up a little for you.
I want it to look pretty because all my staff and everyone doesn't like me writing because they all write better than I do.
But I just wanted to show you that this comes from me to you as my present.
This is the sum and substance of everything I've learned in politics, having run for mayor three times, having almost run for the Senate, having run for president for 11 months, having been the chief surrogate for John McCain, the keynote speaker at the Republican convention in 2004, a major surrogate for Bush in 2004, And a less so because I was going through prostate cancer in 00 for Bush but was there in Florida on the last weekend of the campaign at the request of Karl Rove because he sent everybody to Florida and I went there going through cancer treatments.
Took the weekend off.
My doctor said, you're crazy?
I said, Al Gore can't be president.
And do you know, on September 11, After the first building came down, I was trapped and almost died with my close friends, Bernie Carrick and Denny Young.
We were outside when the second building came down and I grabbed their arms and I said, thank God Al Gore isn't the president and George Bush is.
And that's why I worked hard, in case something like that would happen.
Because I knew that Bush had the, you know the word, I'll give you the Italian word, I knew that Bush had the couyons to strike back so they wouldn't hit us again.
And I knew Gore would do even less than Clinton.
Like, oh, there's an empty field.
Let me drop a bomb there.
There's an empty field.
Let me drop a bomb there.
And then, oh, like Obama.
I've got a red line here.
You cross that red line and I'm going to bomb you.
12 times later, Putin's got to come in and do the job for him.
Or Biden, you know, leaving $85 billion worth of equipment for the terrorists.
You can't vote Democrat.
Under Biden, they're giving our country away.
They want illegals to come in and vote.
They won't be in America.
They're not building a military.
China has a bigger Navy.
Please.
We're doing the game of politics here.
That's the reality of politics.
I voted already.
I don't mind telling you I voted straight Republican, of course, in New York.
I voted for Lee Seldon.
Enthusiastically!
Lee Seldon's our last hope in New York.
Vote for him.
Let's get to the House now.
After we take this short break.
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We are back again, and I think, you know, the House will go through a little bit faster because the House is not a question of if there will be Republican control, but how big will it be.
And once again, we have the Democrat-leaning Cook Report running behind Sort of the averages either from real clear politics that you can work out or the averages that one can do by themselves I'll just give you an example of quickly.
I just, you'll see up there the house of forecast as of today, November 2nd, 2022.
It says 200 Democrats, 223 Republicans. That's like the most that it could be.
And...
And that is... I'd say that one is kind of almost right on the money.
Now you look at this one, and this is the Cook report.
This is Cook, again.
The Cook Political Report 2022 House Ratings, and they're at only 212 to 188.
So you've got 11 more Republican votes predicted by RealClearPolitics and some of the other averages of polls.
And I would say the races that So here's how it goes in the house, so you know how you get there and you get rid of Mrs. Pelosi, who should be the second time we get rid of her, or the third, I don't remember.
I remember the first time in 2010, it was so satisfying.
I went around the country campaigning against her.
And this is according to the... We're going to use the map that you now see up on the board.
The 223 to 200 map.
That's the one we're going to be using right now.
The 223 to 200.
I think that's the closest to where it comes out.
There are people putting Republicans at 240, so I'm not going all the way.
There were very few except Cook that have them down to 200 or 210 or whatever the small number was
that they had. So set for Republicans.
Absolutely, 100% set for Republicans and Democrats, or 153 for the Dems.
This one, there's no possible, I don't know, could one person fall off this?
No, this is like almost definite.
It's not as definite as the Senate because they're all up for re-election in the House.
So, you know, you've got to live with that.
Then we do have likely in the House, and likely in the House, 23 Dems, 17 Rebels.
23 dams, 17 revolts.
OK?
Remember, this was where they are.
So that's five, right?
Seven.
So now we're up to 175 Dems, right?
We're up to 202 Republicans.
That's with the likelies.
Likelies and the set.
Okay?
Now we go to the liens.
These are the closer races, right?
The Leans.
And there we go, 1918.
Okay?
1918.
Those are the Leans.
So we got... This was 176, by the way.
Those are the leans.
So we got, this was 176, by the way.
153 and 23, six, seven, 176.
We got the dams up to 185.
Thank you.
And we got the Republicans up to 220.
Okay?
Okay?
Then we have tilt.
And those are all Dems.
So now we're at 200 to 220.
Okay?
200 to 220.
And then we have five still toss-ups.
Of which they're willing to say that three look more likely repub.
Two they can't tell yet.
So this will get you to 223.
And let's say the Dems get the other two leaners.
It's 202.
Which gives you a 21 vote margin, which is pretty darn good.
We'll save that again for the last time.
Maybe we'll make some kind of gentleman's bet or something.
Okay?
We'll see.
We'll see where Where that all comes from, who it involves, what it's up to, and what you and I both think will be the outcomes there.
So if we want to take a look at the toss-ups in the 223-200 map, you'd have to go through this.
We've got Adam Gray and John Tuarte and David Valadao and Rudy Sachs.
In California, those are among the toss-ups.
We've got the race in Illinois 17th with Eric Sorensen and Esther King.
We've got we've got we've got Jared Golden and Bruce Poliquin in Maine's a
second.
Thank you.
We've got Slotkin and Tom Barrett, one of the really, really close ones, and one of the really important ones in Missouri's 7th District.
Very close, very hard fought, a lot of money going into that race, and at this point, Slotkin has a less than a one point lead.
Let me go back over the other ones to help you with them.
Jared and Poliquin, Poliquin being the Republican, is up by 6.1%, which looks like one that I could take my little red pen I could take my little red pen and go, okay, Republicans.
Now let's look at the next one.
The next one is, the next one is the one that Sherry Bustos who left, and Eric Sorensen and Esther King are running, and Sorensen has a 7.8% lead.
And Sorensen has a 7.8% lead.
So unlike the last one, this one looks like this one is in the other direction, right?
.
This one is in the other direction, even though it's still a toss-up.
It looks like at 7.8, if that is a valid average, the Republican is going to have a little trouble.
And Slotkin and Barrett, I would say, you'd have to call it even right now.
It's a 0.9% lead.
These are the only ones that are in doubt.
Duarte and Gray in California.
Salas and Valadao in California.
The Democrats have double-digit leads in both.
Unless the red wave really spreads, those don't look like an additional pickup.
Although Missouri does.
And Slotkin and Barrett looks like a real possibility.
The others are Angie Craig and Tyler Kistner in Minnesota, with the Democrat up there, Angie Craig, by seven.
Suzy Lee and April Becker where the Democrats up by 6.7 and that's in Nevada
And an open seat In New York with Riley and Molinaro where the Democrat is
up Molinaro's gonna win that seat.
How do you like that?
I'm willing to call that one On my own.
I've interviewed him.
I know him.
I know that district.
I say Molinaro wins that seat.
That'll be a... Move these numbers around by one.
And that's pretty much it.
I mean, that's the House.
It's definite.
It's a question of... Is it going to be the... Is it going to be the 8-10 vote?
Or is it going to be the 20...
One that I'm predicting, or will it be the 30 or 40 that Newt Gingrich has predicted?
I'm hoping Newt Gingrich is right, and I apologize to my good friend Newt.
Both of us thought the election was over on election night 2020 when Philadelphia hit 800,000.
We both said, can't overcome that lead.
But maybe we're not so off.
So I'm going to give you just a quick, quick, and we'll be finished quickly.
So I'm going to do it quickly.
I'm going to just give you a quick idea of what the Democrat races look like.
OK, so the Democrat races are basically like this.
And I'll put the map up and I'll just read you these and then we have time.
On the last show we'll go through it in more detail.
We've got 12 Republican, in this particular case we've got 12 Republicans, 12 Democrats said and 19 Republicans.
We've got five likelies for both, three leans and one lean, so we're at 25-20 with the Republicans.
We're at 25-20 with the Republicans.
The 25 governors, Republicans go in pretty much assured they're going to have half the governorships.
And the ones up to give us to five more are Wisconsin, Kansas, Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon.
Kansas would normally be a Republican state.
That's Laura Kelly and Derek Schmidt.
And I would say that that's going to stay Repub.
Which will get you to 26 Republican seats as governor.
And I would say Arizona We'll go Republican.
Carrie Lake has put on one of the best campaigns I've seen.
And Hobbs has refused to debate her because she is nothing like the candidate that Carrie is.
And I would say that would get us to a safe 27.
Could we win all five?
I'd say probably Nevada, for sure.
The closest of those, Wisconsin would be next, and Oregon would be the least likely.
So I wouldn't be surprised to see us come out with a 30-20 lead in governorships.
Maybe the most likely choice is 28 governorships.
to maybe the most likely choice is 28, 28 governorships.
That might be the likely one to 22.
So there are the final results from me as of today.
I'm going to keep them all here.
I'm going to work on it all weekend.
I'm going to ask you to vote.
I did.
Vote early.
Get it in.
I mean, it's really, really important that we do that.
You know that.
And I know that.
And the future of our country is at stake.
We're looking good, but don't get complacent.
And remember, we're dealing with a political party that at the very top has rarely been as crooked as it is today.
So we'll be back in a few days and we'll try to get back on Sunday or Monday.
So we give you a last Did anything change?
We'll keep these numbers the way they are for the weekend.
I'll be campaigning.
I'll be getting more information.
And we'll be back to you with our final word.
Let's call this the penultimate prediction.
We'll have the ultimate prediction on Sunday or Monday.