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April 24, 2024 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec
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EPISODE 721: HUMAN EVENTS PRESIDENTIAL POLLING SPECIAL

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A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
President Biden is closing the gap with former President Trump.
Trump leads Biden by two points in a head-to-head matchup, 46 to 44 percent.
Biden has narrowed that deficit against Trump from five points in January.
And when third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, are included, Biden leads by two points, 39 to 37 percent.
According to the poll, Biden seems to benefit when, say, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
are added.
He leads Trump 39 percent to 37 percent.
Conventional wisdom has been that RFK Jr.
pulled supporters from Biden.
But this poll actually shows 5 percent of Trump supporters and 7 percent of Biden's Break for RFK Jr.
when the field expands to include third-party candidates.
Really tells the same story that we've been hearing over the past week or two, a tightening of the race.
All four of the states within the margin of error.
Donald Trump leads Georgia 51-45.
Michigan 49-46.
41-45. Michigan, 49-46. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, dead heats, 48-46.
It's not just that voters by a decisive margin believe Trump is the better president by 22 points.
That's a staggering number in terms of how to handle inflation, cost of living.
But on who is more competent and effective, Trump beats Biden by double digits on having the necessary mental and physical health.
Trump nearly doubles Biden by a 21 point margin with only a quarter of voters, one quarter.
So we're not just talking Republicans and conservatives here, but a big chunk of independents and Democrats saying they believe that the current president has no business seeking a second term.
All right, Jack Posobiec, here we are live human events daily.
We are in Washington, D.C.
Today's April 24th, 2024.
Anno, Dominique.
Today, President Trump is not on trial.
Wednesdays are going to be sort of a gimme day for the court.
Hopefully that'll be enough for President Trump to be able to attend his son's high school graduation.
So today we are going to do a polling update, human events, special polling update.
And the great rich Barris has told us that he is willing to and gracious to be here with us for the entire hour.
Rich, how are you, man?
Living the dream as always, Jack, how you doing, buddy?
I'm doing very well.
So it's been a minute since we've been on, and we've only got a couple of minutes in this short segment.
But before we get in, we've got a lot of these top-line national polls that have come out, but there's also a lot of swing state polls.
Let me ask you, though, what are some of the biggest headlines and trends that we can talk about and that you see going on in polling right now in the race?
Yeah, there's a lot of, uh, there's a lot of I-told-you-sos to unpack in, uh, in a short segment, Jack, but I did tell people to expect these polls to close, uh, number one, and number two, that RFK's position in the race is a lot more complicated, or his impact on the race is a lot more complicated, and we're still not sure what, you know, is he going to be on all of these ballots, but, uh, even in our own polling that we just released in Pennsylvania and Michigan,
It showed a tighter race, but Joe was saying something in that last segment on Fox News that that really is consistent.
And that's been a big, big trend this whole year.
The bottom line is when you ask voters who they trust to handle issues that are all these issues at this point.
And then also, who was a better president?
Trump is just thumping Biden.
So while the polls are tightening because this is a divided country, the true swing voter out there, Jack, is a problem for Joe Biden.
There's no doubt.
The true swing voter is a problem for Joe Biden.
That's the real jump ball because we've got Biden, we got Trump, and we also have, for the first time, and this is something that I want to get into with you throughout the episode here, is whether or not we've got another potential Ross Perot-like candidate in RFK.
Yeah, I've been telling people even in our early polling, I was like really highly suspect of how it looked like RFK was hurting Biden nationally because of the voter, the demographic profile of the voter who was who was voting for RFK.
And it's like for your state, for instance, I wasn't seeing a lot of educated suburbanites in Delco or Montgomery voting for RFK.
It's possible that he takes what remains of the white working class vote away from Joe Biden a little bit, but we're only seeing that in a handful of states.
So in Minnesota, it hurt Joe Biden a little bit, but in Pennsylvania, it has been clear to us, a state like that, it has been clear to us that RFK actually hurts.
And hurts Donald Trump.
If those voters had to choose in an A-B choice, they would go with Donald Trump.
So it does vary by state.
And national polling, honestly, is an exercise.
You know, it's for fun, Jack.
It's for fun for us at this point.
Because we don't know what states he's really going to totally appear in.
Not all of them anyway.
Some we do know, but we don't have the total picture.
Jill Stein could end up being up.
We're going to go through all this and more Rich Barris.
Quick break.
We're back.
Rich Barrows here, the People's Pundit, the full hour human events polling special.
I'll be right back.
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All right, we're back here with Rich Barris, the People's Pundit.
Rich, let's dive into it.
Let's dive into it right now, because we kind of started it in the last segment.
RFK, this guy's running.
Is he going to be another Ross Perot candidate?
If so, who does he cut more against?
Now, you and I were some of the only people in the nation last year saying, hold on a second, guys, this guy could cut more against Trump.
than he does against Biden.
And people were saying, "Oh no, he's a Kennedy.
They're Democrat royalty.
He's got the name.
He's got the pedigrees, his father's name as well.
He's junior.
Everyone's gonna remember that.
The Democrats will flock to him." And I'm like, "I think he's more well known." And to be clear, Joe Biden has shown that he is scared of that.
Because Joe Biden's got a huge problem on his far left flank.
That's why he's trying to shore up his moderate flank.
That's why he's scared about RFK because he knows that there are some people that are potentially going to be out against him.
That's why he's got the entire Kennedy family.
Very shameful, by the way, video that they did attacking their brother the way they have.
I mean, just to publicly go after your own brother in such a way, it's your own family, your own kin, your own blood.
It's just something absolutely wrong about it.
But at the same time, Rich, let's walk through some of these polls.
NBC had a poll as well that said it's possible that more, when they included RFK, that more Trump voters were going to him than Biden voters.
Now, to be sure, Biden voters went to him as well, but it was almost double the amount of Trump voters.
What are you looking at?
Well, let's look at his favorability, too, in these polls.
Look who views RFK more favorably.
Republicans do.
Democrats don't.
And he's underwater now.
Some Fox polling had some really interesting stuff on this, and so do others.
But he's now basically, as more people are getting to know him, he is now getting underwater, meaning there are more people who view him unfavorably than favorably.
We'll have to see if that trend continues.
But what is pushing that trend in the polls that are showing this?
Our Democrats, they're not Republicans, who still view him more favorably than the Democratic Party does.
Listen, again, I really got to point it out, like Michigan, which we just pulled and released a couple, not last week.
In the head-to-head, Trump was leading Biden by three points.
I mean, it was a solid lead.
Three is close, but it was a solid lead.
With RFK on the ballot and Stein on the ballot with everyone we threw on that ballot, that race got cut, that lead got cut to just about one point.
That's a much, much closer, you know, it's well within the sampling error and it's a toss up at that point.
Why is this?
Well, first of all, RFK is getting on the ballot in Michigan.
He's going to be the natural law party candidate.
So that may be a problem for him, though.
And as far as branding goes, the natural law party in that state Has not performed very well.
I think it was De La Fuente or something.
It was the last one.
Did abysmal.
They have some pretty strange positions.
I mean, just, you know, positions that, you know, some Republicans might believe in and then positions some Democrats might believe in.
But they sat down with him and they decided he's good for us.
We're gonna go with him.
The issues that Democrats don't side with RFK on are big issues, Jack.
What did the media attack him over?
They attacked him over vaccines, some of the things he said on vaccines.
Uh, masks, lockdowns in general.
I mean, there are some pretty big, I want to say litmus test kind of issues for the left at this point that he failed.
And now he, and then some that he, when he, when he decided to run for president, he, he didn't fail on them initially, but trying to appeal to some people on the right, he moderated his prior position on these things.
And now that makes him unpalatable to the left.
So, In Minnesota, that was one state that has now consistently shown that he hurts Biden more than he hurts Trump.
So in Minnesota, it was basically an even race.
Biden had a two-point lead or one-point lead with RFK on the ballot.
But without him, Biden's lead widened a little bit.
But in the other battleground states, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and we're going to do Wisconsin real soon again, there was no doubt in our mind that RFK hurt Trump.
So with that being the case with RFK hurting Trump, this is maybe why you've already seen Trump's MAGA PAC, MAGA INC.
and others coming out and really highlighting some of these stances, these far left stances that RFK has held on issues that are very important to Republican voters, issues like gun rights.
Yeah.
Issues like the climate.
These are super, super rock bottom issues.
Yeah, abortion, of course, for conservative voters and something where I don't know necessarily, and even his past praise of Hillary Clinton.
So it's something where I think to your point, they're going to have to work on his favorables when it comes to this.
Because here's something interesting though.
And RFK, he goes home with Glenn Beck earlier in the week and I should have pulled the clip.
And he says, you know, they ask him about guns and he says, "Glenn, a gun killed my father and a gun killed my uncle." And I'm like, excuse me?
A gun did that?
Uh, Dunn did that?
That's what you're going to use the most far leftist, and that's not some old comment, Rich.
That's a current.
You just said that.
And to bring up his, I mean, everybody knows, right, the curse of the Kennedys and the closest tragedies, the most high profile tragedies in probably in American politics.
And since, you know, since Lincoln or McKinley.
But, you know, in modern politics, certainly.
No question.
But to bring that up as a way to say a gun did that, I mean, it's shameful.
I've seen Yoko Ono said something similar once when she said that her husband, I remember this, she said her husband was the victim of New York Street violence from a gun.
I'm like, excuse me?
The guy wasn't even from New York!
This was a completely separate situation, and the idea that you would use something like that, as horrific as it was, and to be clear, of course it was, but to use that in a kind of partisan political debate, it's, what can I say, it's just as shameful as I thought his family was for coming out against him.
And let me say on that too, well first, let me preface it with, the state killed your uncle.
Sirhan Sirhan killed your father, alright?
I mean, they would have found other ways to do it, Jack.
I mean, the state wants you gone, the state's gonna, you're gone, alright?
I mean, it could have been any number of vehicles they could have used to implement the assassination of his uncle.
I mean, poison, anything.
It's not gonna get to a point where you're gonna outlaw anything that's harmful to another human being in this society.
I mean, that's just ludicrous.
But, that being said, the very first round of shaming that they pulled on him, I was outspoken against that too, because I would say this to you folks listening.
If the ruling class is willing to bury, literally, their own family to maintain their good standing with the ruling class, because that's what the Kennedy family is doing, they're attacking their own in order to make sure they're still invited to tea and crumpets on Fridays in the usual shindigs, what loyalty would they ever have to you as the voter?
If they're willing to kick their own family member out You know, into the street out.
I mean, because he's what's going to happen after his bid fails.
Where is he going to go now, Jack?
If they're willing to do that to one of their own, one of their own members of their own family in order to keep good standing with the ruling class, what are they going to do to you?
Their word means nothing, nothing at all.
It's horrible.
It's absolutely, it's sad to watch because, you know, there's a few things in this, in this life you should care about Jack more than anything.
You know, there's in my, my instance, you know, obviously it's the creator, it's family.
To not be able to count on either of those is just a sad existence.
And this is something where, again, these are bedrock conservative issues.
And I get it, right?
I've said before that a great spot for RFK might be, give him a role.
Have Trump come out and say, I'll put him on the campaign, I'll put him on the cabinet, rather.
Health and human services?
is the most obvious one and just turn them loose.
I mean, what, the Democrat Senate's not going to vote for a Kennedy, right?
That would put them, or, you know, the Democrat senators.
I think that the, I do actually think that the Republicans were more likely to pick up the Senate this time around.
Easiest target.
We can talk about that later.
But yeah, that is the easiest target.
Actually, funny enough, you might end up getting more trouble from the Republican Senators, now that I think about it, to confirm an RFK than you would from the Democrat Senators.
Yeah, you probably would because of his positions on those issues.
And I do have to say this.
I don't even know if the guy remembers, but it was many, many years ago, back when I was basically the data journalism editor of a site.
There was a situation within, it was an environmental issue in this place out by Long Island, basically in New York.
And, uh, yeah, I mean, there's just so much I don't think the Republican voter knows yet about some of his positions on environmental issues.
That would scare me to death!
And that's what they need to work on.
We'll be right back.
Quick break here.
Rich Baris doing just the full hour.
Rich Baris doing just the full hour.
So I'm jumping on my computer Going to pre-order town Pre-ordering live human Can't wait to get my hands on that book All right, Jack Rosobic back here, live, Human Events Daily.
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Rich Barris, now we're going into some of the states here.
And I'm looking in swing state after swing state, as you say, it looks as though Trump is getting, that it's tightening, it's tightening up a little bit, but he's still outperforming Biden.
And more to the point, he's actually outperforming himself in 16 and 20.
Tell us what's going on.
Yeah, so, you know, you had that clip of Joe Scarborough saying, you know, it's one poll after another showing the same thing, that the race is tightening.
I mean, I think what it's showing is that Biden's getting back a little bit of some of those that were just completely fed up with him, but he's not catching Trump.
And this is the issue.
For instance, the poll he cited was Georgia, the Fox News poll.
Go back and look at the polling from 16 and 20.
You're not going to see Donald Trump performing that well in that state.
And then nationally as well, in several polls, he's been at or above 50, just below it.
Trump has never been that high in these polls.
And on average, he overperformed his polling by about 2.5, a little more than 2.5 points, 2.7 and change, I believe it is, in the polling aggregates, you know, compared to the polling aggregates.
The problem, again, that Joe Biden has, and I expected him to reconsolidate some of those people.
There are just too many people, Jack, when you look inside the numbers.
That's why we call my show Inside the Numbers.
When you look at the two questions, one is, did you vote in 2020?
Trump smashes Biden.
It was the other way around in 2020.
And Trump beat Hillary in the 2016 question, did you vote in 2012?
So it seems like that, for obvious reasons, gives you a big boost if you can get those people out.
And then the second question that matters is, did you vote in 2020 and how did you vote?
Even in polls where we're seeing so-called tightening.
What we're also seeing is at least a two-to-one exchange in Trump's favor on who they voted for and has changed their mind.
So what do I mean by that?
2% of Donald Trump's vote from 2020 says they've changed their mind and now they're voting for Biden.
At least 4% of Biden's vote says they're voting for Trump.
And most of the time, it's actually a lot more than that.
The New York Times and I were basically identical in that latest New York Times poll that came out.
The one before that, they had Trump up by like four or something.
They were 10 to 1.
And I thought that was a little ridiculous.
You know, 10% of Biden's vote was going to Trump and only 1% less.
Then 1% of Trump's vote was going to Biden.
I thought that was a little bit crazy.
We're usually somewhere in the realm of 2, 3 to 1.
So if 2% of Trump's vote says they're voting for Biden, it's 6%, 8% of Biden's vote that say they're now going for Trump.
Why does that matter?
Those are people who changed their mind.
There aren't very many of them in this country, relatively speaking.
There just aren't.
And that is a true swing voter.
And those people are definitely favoring Donald Trump.
And then couple that with the I did not vote in 2020 number.
Donald Trump's campaign should focus like a laser beam on getting those people to vote, because that's the difference between either a narrow loss or a narrow win, and us being able to go home at 11.30 at night and calling it a wrap, Jack, because it's over.
You know, that's the difference.
And we saw this, and this was Kornacki, and he goes out there and meet the press on Sunday, and Chris Welker's there, and she's got this other, you would see the jaw drop.
You can see the shock on the face when it says, of people who voted in 20 or 2022.
This is very interesting.
For people who voted in 20 or 2022, and this is the general election, the national poll, Biden is plus nine.
However, when you poll people who did not vote in 22 or voted in 2020, they refused to vote, didn't vote in either 20 or 22.
All right.
This is a very interesting swath of voters here.
That's Trump plus 22.
And Rich, this is something that you and I have been talking about for weeks here.
It's not low propensity voters, it's no propensity voters.
That Trump is up 22.
Now we're seeing this on Meet the Press, after you heard it on Human Events Daily, you heard it on People's Pundit, Inside the Numbers, for almost a year you've been banging the drum on this.
Saying that Trump is up big with no propensity voters.
Walk me through how Trump's campaign can capitalize on that.
Well, and before I do, let me just say real quick in 08, it was this huge debate.
Oh, Biden can't be, I mean, Obama can't be up that much nationally.
Those people are not coming out and they did.
All right.
I mean, unlikely, the unlikely voter poll from survey from USA Today has been going on for years.
All right.
So we're, you know, this isn't, Something totally novel.
It's just that normally it doesn't favor Republicans.
And then in 16, or 12, I should say, Obama led Mitt Romney with them, and those Mitt Romney needed to come out did not.
And that's the whole thing behind Sean Trendy's The Case of the Missing White Voter, and a largely centered in the Rust Belt, which was a disaster, and Mitt Romney went down in flames.
We all know the story.
In 16, that vote was going for Trump, and it organically came out for him over Hillary Clinton.
Let me just say, and by the way, in 20, that vote was going for Biden, and people argued it wouldn't come out.
It did.
So, you know, to dismiss this is just stupid.
I would say, how can he capitalize on this?
I mean, it's a lot more than a segment could wrap up because there's a lot of technical stuff here.
We've been researching these people for like a year, Jack.
We know what could motivate them, why they're not motivated in the past.
We know a lot about these people.
And I would say this, the Trump campaign just announced with the RNC this huge effort to observe the polls going into 2024.
I would say this.
Teach those people how to observe.
Teach those people what their role is on election night.
But you do not want to let it get to the point where election night is your last line of defense.
If you really can recruit that many people, there is a very easy way for that number of people to I would call it a force multiplier.
All right.
Those people know whether it's their inner circle at work, friends, their neighbors, they shoot the you know what with.
Believe me, you know five of these people.
You and I sitting here today know three to five easy that you can get to go out.
And that's what needs to be done, Jack.
And it's got, it's more sophisticated, but it can be done.
Let me tell you something else.
This is something that I think a lot of people haven't picked up on.
That there's reports out of Pennsylvania that Republicans now have the polling or the registration advantage in 67 out of 67 counties.
I can tell you, I can tell you why this is happening.
This is happening because Josh Shapiro, the governor there, passed what at the beginning of this year?
Mandatory motor voter.
Voter voter means that when you go to get your driver's license renewed, you have you now in the state of Pennsylvania, you now have to register to vote.
So those people that we're talking about, these no propensity voters, by and large, were not registered.
And so those people, so Josh Shapiro thought, oh, I'm going to be able to help help the Democrats by getting by getting forcing this registration out, because traditionally, that's what happens.
However, we're finding now that the more people in Pennsylvania in 2024 go to get their driver's license renewed and are up there and saying, you know, they can't skip out, right?
You can't skip anymore.
You have to opt out, but it's like hard to get through the system.
You can opt out, but it's hard, right?
It's very hard.
If you're just sitting there, you're hitting all the buttons, and people get to that It's just easier to do it.
the touch screen and they hit Republican.
People are hitting Republican.
And so what the party should be doing in Pennsylvania and what the Trump campaign should be doing is find all of those people that weren't registered to vote that didn't vote in 22 and 24.
And guess what?
That's your AB universe.
That is your early vote universe.
Get up in their grill.
Have someone go get the Scott Presslers, get a thousand, five thousand Scott Presslers and the young Republicans and all the rest of it and go knock on the doors, send the text messages, be there, be friendly and you and Everybody knows the drill.
That's where you're going to get the lion's share of your voters.
And to your point, Rich, that's how you go from a nail biter.
That's how you go from having to argue in court to going home early.
on November 5th with Donald J. Trump as the next president of the United States.
It's right there.
And this is happening in state after state.
And if the campaign just gets up and starts doing this, I frankly think that would be far more effective than these poll workers because if you're waiting for election day anymore, the way that they shifted the election, obviously in the states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the way that they shifted the election, obviously in the states like It said Election Day doesn't matter anymore as much, and Arizona as well.
Especially in a state like Pennsylvania, it's amazing they never had an early vote culture until 2020.
We never did.
And then all of a sudden, you're seeing these 85-15 early vote breaks that favor Democrats.
You need a monstrous turnout to close that gap on Election Day, and it's just not happening.
You said so much there, Jack, that They really need to listen to and make a relationship, build a relationship.
It's very easy for a guy like me who has voter files, access to voter files in every state.
Oh, I think we, uh, I think Rich is, is popping off a little bit there.
We're going to try to reconnect.
Oh, Rich, we have you back there.
Yeah, I'm here.
Okay, I was just going to say, when Motor Voter passed, Jack, everyone was having a meltdown on the right, and people like me, it's very easy to see who those people are.
It's very easy to build profiles with them.
I remember this.
You were the guy.
You were the one who said, hold on, guys.
Hold on.
Josh Shapiro may have just shot himself in the foot a little bit.
We'll be right back.
Rich Barris here walking through how we're going to win 2023.
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Rich Barris, we're having some connection issues right at the end of the last segment.
Want to get you back on, reconnected here, and give you a chance to recap.
Yeah, just 30 seconds, real quick.
What I was saying before that went down is when that motor voter popped off, you said a lot in there about how to connect with these voters, but when that motor voter popped off, A lot of people on the right were having a meltdown and I was trying to explain to them, guys like me, we have vendor agreements, we have access to voter files, we have machine learning models that crank out and profile these people.
It was without a doubt, Pennsylvania is not alone.
The vote that is on the table, that needs to be gotten, that needs to be harvested, whatever you want to call it, is a Republican vote.
In my lifetime, that has never been the case, Jack.
So I knew that this would benefit Republicans.
It did in Jersey, by the way.
A couple years ago, New Jersey did something similar.
The profiles of voters that are sitting out elections, that are sitting home, that are quitting on the process are Republican voters.
Some of that is how things have gone in recent years.
Others is because of the shift and realignments in demographics.
Democrats are just benefiting from those high interest educated voters or highly credentialed professionals.
And Republicans have to go out and get the normal average American.
And that's a much more difficult task.
It used to be the reverse.
But you get them out, and it goes from being a nail-biter to a solid win.
You don't have to wait with 300,000 poll workers looking at the ballots coming in without dates on them, Jack.
We'll know, because the numbers are so great.
There won't be enough of them.
You understand what I'm saying?
People have this, like, fallacy in their mind that Democrats can just somehow keep, you know, stuffing ballots through the box.
There is a finite number of them.
Go out and do your job.
Get those people to vote.
Get them recorded.
Get them to the polls.
Get their vote tallied.
And there isn't enough to stop them.
There isn't enough.
They have the numbers.
They're there.
Look, folks, at the end of the day, this is something that I always explain to people.
You get so many times that people in these elections, especially on the pundit's side, they get wrapped around the axle on one issue or another issue.
And to be sure, issues matter.
I'm not saying issues don't matter, but they get so drilled down in the weeds on coming up with the perfect way to approach an issue that they miss the fact that in the American political process, it is not the quality of your votes that matters.
It is the quantity of your vote that matters, the quantity.
And if I can do something as a political operative, if I can do something that affects ballots, At mass.
On mass.
And this is what the Democrats did in 2020.
They changed our system of voting from a system of votes to a system of ballots.
They said, we're not going to be able to beat Trump on election day, so we can beat him at the ballot box by expanding the ballot box to include drop boxes, to include mailboxes, Yeah.
to include the jury boxes, what we see the law fair going on.
So all the other boxes that they started adding into our election process, they've systematically destroyed our our civic ritual, our civic ritual that was Election Day.
That's gone right now.
And by the way, another thing I would say, Rich, real quick on that is and I know Trump's got his true social post up That was a good post.
People need to make a plan.
I appreciate that.
I'll give you an example.
Donald Trump is on trial right now and couldn't hold rallies in Pennsylvania ahead of the Pennsylvania primary because he's on trial in New York City.
Well, there's a great example of what could happen on Election Day when you need to be somewhere and all of a sudden you can't show up because, oh, now you're in court.
Oh, now you got something.
So even Donald Trump himself had to miss the Pennsylvania primary.
And I'm sure there's going to be a few more that he's going to miss.
Talk about a key state, the Keystone State, that he had to miss.
And he's not there.
He's not barnstorming.
He's not there in Scranton holding rallies and another one in Pittsburgh or Westmoreland County or just any of the counties out along the border there with Ohio, the Marcella Shale area, the fracking area, none of it.
None of it.
Sorry, Beaver.
Perfect, Beaver County.
Thank you.
The reason being, this is why he himself has a perfect example of why you should vote early.
Simple as that.
Yeah, I don't know if 20 didn't convince Republicans and I still believe me.
We get it.
We talk to these people every day.
It's unbelievable that so many still haven't caught what you said before.
They changed it from a system of voting because votes are earned by persuasion.
That's not what this game's about anymore.
Kerry Lake in 22.
If you didn't learn from 20, you should have learned from 22.
Kerry Lake won the game of persuasion.
It wasn't even close.
What they did was throw a wrench in her election machine and prevented her from winning another 45 minutes of voting without incident.
It's culture.
It's critical.
the end of that would have been the end of Hobbs's margin.
But Hobbs went out and gathered and then whatever, whether it was intentional or not, Jack, that first three hours in Maricopa County voting on Election Day is culture.
It's culture.
It's critical.
Everybody knows about it.
It's not even like something that, you know, it's a known thing.
It's not even like something that people, you know, wouldn't have been able to engineer and put together.
If you wanted to hurt an election day margin, that's what you would do.
I mean, it's so obvious.
And if that didn't teach you that you have to vote early, then guys, I don't know what you're waiting for.
But, you know, there is some help that you can give some of these suspicious voters, which is what we call them, in some of the, you know, the nomenclature, some of the vocabulary that's used.
It's got to be changed, right?
So, you know, male-in-voting term like that scares the hell out of Republicans.
There are other words that can be used.
Believe me, we've poll-tested and focus-grouped that are a lot easier.
They think that's something totally different going on or something.
That's fine.
Whatever you got to do to get them to feel comfortable voting like that.
Like you said, too, this is something that got glitched out before.
Those people that are registering because of Motor Voter or these new voters that are Republicans, they are your absentee ballot.
Target group.
You need to make voting for them.
They're not afraid of absentee ballot voting as much as a regular everyday or four out of four Republican voter.
They're not.
They're just, in many ways, disenfranchised.
They don't want it to be difficult and interfere with their lives.
You have to make it as easy as possible.
And the way to do that is to get them on the permanent absentee ballot list.
And then you just keep a relationship.
Keep up contact.
Make sure Excuse me.
Make sure they get that ballot in.
Hey, it's Rich again from so-and-so.
I just wanted to let you know the ballots went out.
You got it?
Great.
Let me just send you a reminder to make sure you get it back in.
Then you try.
It's not hard to track.
I mean, Democrats are all over this.
Republicans act like they're still in the Stone Age or something, chiseling with like a hammer.
And, you know, it's ridiculous.
They know how to chase these things down.
And two weeks later, three weeks later, they didn't get the ballot in.
Somebody goes and knocks.
I mean, there are other ways to do it.
Ninety nine percent of the population has a cell phone.
Shoot him a text.
Hey, it's Rich again.
Just wanted to see how you're doing.
And I saw you didn't get your ballot in.
You know, your vote will matter this time.
Get that ballot in.
Believe me, we've run these experiments.
They work.
And that's why Republicans should be, by the way, very excited about Michael Watley.
Jack, we weren't in North Carolina for like five days and they contacted us immediately.
Hey, you're a Republican voter from Florida.
Don't forget to sign up, you know, because you have to be in a you have to register as something in Florida to vote in the primary.
And sure as hell enough, they were all over that, Jack.
I mean, so you got a message.
Five days.
Five days.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, no.
Did I register already?
No!
You mean prior to that?
Wow!
I did not.
chair along with co-chair Laura Trump.
Wow.
But you're saying that when he was the North Carolina chair, that you as a new mover were targeted almost immediately.
Five days with that.
Five days.
And you had, now I got to ask Rich, had you registered yet?
Oh yeah.
Oh no.
Did I register already?
No.
Prior to that.
Wow.
I did not.
Wow.
Okay.
I had a 29 foot box truck sitting in my driveway for three days.
It's on the list.
Hold on a second.
We come back.
Quick break.
the story of secret history the hidden tales of the communist history but i got a hankering yearning deep inside for this book called unhumans i just can't All right, Jack Posobiec
back live, final segment here.
Rich Barris, you know, we've been talking through ways that the Trump campaign can use some of these trends to their advantage, and I certainly hope they do.
Let's zoom out a little bit, though, and talk general election, talk international, talk finance.
Um, you know, people have said obviously the international situation completely deteriorating, Ukraine, the spending bill, just atrocious, completely atrocious, not on top.
And it's, it's, I've seen the polls again and again and again.
And what I see is immigration and inflation, immigration and inflation, immigration, inflation, foreign policy, even, even Gallup.
I looked this up, had foreign policy was like 3%, like 3% said that this was their number one, their number one issue.
But I will say this.
that this is where and this is where you know reading between the polls matters more i think that i think that it's not that foreign policy is something that people vote on but i do think it affects people's perception of the the president's handling of their job it affects their management and that's where it comes in because this is the first time that we've ever had since since grover cleveland a a former president running against a current president
um where you've got a situation where one could come up and and people could can see that They can see the record of Trump, they can remember the record of Trump, and they can see the record of Biden, right?
Biden's not an unknown quantity, now he's a known quantity, and people know it and they don't like it.
And so, Rich, let me put it this way.
What do you think could come up on the big stage between now and the election that could really shake things up?
Yeah, let me just say in my back in my academia days, which seems forever ago now, there used to be an expression where foreign policy cannot save you as a president, but it sure can kill you.
It sure can do you in.
So if you're running for re-election, George Herbert Walker Bush, a great example of that, he thought Kuwait would save him from the economy, which people prioritized more than foreign policy.
I mean, we're at a point, I mean, you're asking that question.
Here's what I would say to that you for people are Americans are very generous and they want to help people they perceive to be the underdog so you'll get a higher or an inflated number of support for people who say do you want them you know us to help with Ukraine stuff like that.
What Republicans, Trump, and everybody should be saying is, they don't have an endgame.
The endgame is U.S.
boots on the ground.
We are not prepared to do that because we're too concerned with the average working man and woman in this country struggling.
That should be the answer to that.
That is the only way forward in Ukraine, Jack.
They've lost the war.
I don't have to pretend with you on your show.
You know it and I know it.
The war is lost everywhere behind closed doors now, including in some of the most hawkish areas of this country right now.
They're making quiet conversations and plans about how to exit here.
Because Americans, they're not sure whether they're willing to jump into this war to save that guy right there.
I mean, that's what it's all about now.
Whether Volodymyr Zelensky ends up dead or whether he ends up continuing to be the ruler of a diminished, smaller Ukraine.
So that's the way Republicans need to phrase this.
But there are a lot of things that could pop off between now and then.
Taiwan, right?
Of course, China would prefer Biden.
So you would think they may try to hold off, weigh that against the potential risk of Trump winning, and then they can't take it.
So there's that.
And then, of course, you know, with this effort to try to win back some of the vote in these, you know, in Dearborn, Michigan, for instance, Biden's doing some some reckless stuff with Israel.
I mean, you send, you know, you're trying to build You're trying to build that platform out there.
What happens when it's destroyed?
Because you don't want anybody defending it.
I mean, the whole world's a powder keg right now, Jack.
That whole region is a powder keg.
So much can happen between now and then.
And I would just say this, my friend Patrick Basham over at Democracy Institute just sent me his data.
It just got covered and published, but he sent me his data on how Americans viewed the 60 billion plus Ukraine package.
And Republicans are pissed!
They're really angry!
Mike Johnson is becoming a liability here if he's going to continue to govern as the Speaker.
He's going to hurt Republicans.
And Republicans are hurting themselves because, look, they have a narrow majority and more than half of that conference is filled with posers, crooks, losers, cowards.
You know it and I know it.
So it's not like he has the votes to do anything about it.
But God, by God, at least pretend that you prioritize what your base prioritizes because They continue down this path, maybe Donald Trump won't even be enough to save them.
I don't know.
Dave McCormick running 16 points behind Donald Trump in the state of Pennsylvania isn't a good enough, isn't enough of a siren going off in your head.
The Fox poll, he's constantly running ahead of them in the generic ballot in these states.
By the way, Fox found exactly what we found in Pennsylvania.
By the way, folks, folks, for people who don't realize that that Dave McCormick is a Republican running for state in Pennsylvania.
So what he's saying is that Trump is consistently running ahead of every other Republican.
And the reason is because they see something different in him than they see in your typical establishment type Republican, that he is a he is a unicorn.
What can I say?
He's just a unicorn when it comes to polling.
It's a unicorn when it comes to his specific relationship that he has with the American people and particularly a certain type of American that doesn't care about the foreign policy stuff as much other than the fact that they want the focus to be on bread and butter issues here at home.
And I'll put it this way Rich.
This is really getting Biden on the defensive because, and just a last minute, I'll throw it to you, but anything bad that happens in the world in the next seven months is automatically, kind of by default, it's Joe Biden's fault.
The same way COVID kind of got blamed on Trump, isn't it?
It is, and that's a stupid thing.
I've actually heard some Republicans privately say, if we didn't send them this money for Ukraine, if the situation deteriorated, they would have blamed us for it.
And it's just so, it's asinine, Jack.
No.
Congress doesn't get blamed.
No, it's the opposite!
It's the opposite.
I said this on the show the other day.
They didn't want another Kabul on their hands happening in Kiev right before the election because we know that that could have been on the marshal.
This was a $60 billion campaign donation to Joe Biden.
That's right.
It's exactly what it was, and they bailed him out again, they being Republicans.
Listen, both Fox News and us at Big Data Poll, we both found that that lead is significant over Republicans generically in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
For some reason, Republicans were doing a little bit better in Michigan on a generic ballot than they were in Pennsylvania.
Same thing again with Fox News, they found the same.
And when we ask people why that was, it's because it's simple.
It's one thing.
The Trump voter in Michigan is simply more likely to vote Republican down ballot to support Trump than in Pennsylvania.
They're not as, you know, loyal like that.
Rich, where can people follow you, brother?
Best places on Locals.
PeoplesPundit.Locals.com.
Thanks for having me, Jack.
Ladies and gentlemen, as always, you have my permission to lay it short.
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