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April 3, 2024 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec

49:20

EPISODE 706: BIDEN POLLING NIGHTMARE - BATTLEGROUND STATES FLIP TO TRUMP

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	This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
	A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
	This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
	75 people trapped inside tunnels.
	They have now just been rescued after an earthquake hits Taiwan.
	The strongest earthquake to hit Taiwan in 25 years.
	The 22-year-old nursing student in Georgia who was barbarically murdered by an illegal alien animal.
	The Democrats say, please don't call them animals.
	They're humans.
	I said, no, they're not humans.
	They're not humans.
	They're animals.
	And Nancy Pelosi told me that.
	She said, please don't use the word animal, sir, when you're talking about these people.
	I said, I'll use the word animal because that's what they are.
	President Trump and his lawyers are demanding that Judge Juan Merchant be removed because his daughter is a political consultant for Democrats.
	Lauren Merchant is listed as president and partner in the political consulting firm Authentic Campaigns.
	Authentic does tens of millions of dollars of work for Democrats and progressive causes.
	authentic boasts, its clients include President Biden.
	The governor there has thrown his support behind an effort that would no longer allocate the electoral votes by congressional district.
	Because right now, it's five votes there.
	Technically, Republicans get four and President Biden, Democrats get the one from Omaha.
	If that changes, and we don't know that it will, the state legislature is going to look at it.
	But if that changes, that takes away Biden's best path to win.
	Because if you get, if he wins Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, but loses the other swing states and no longer picks up the one in Nebraska, 269, that leads playbook this morning.
	The alarm among Democrats that this is possible.
	But when these polls like the Wall Street Journal one land in the White House and he's losing in all the battleground states.
	No, he's not losing in all the battleground states.
	He's coming up and he's even or doing better.
	So you know what?
	Once people start to focus in and they see their two choices, it's obvious that Joe will win this election.
	According to the new numbers from the Wall Street Journal, Trump leads Biden in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
	Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome on board.
	Today's edition of Human Events Daily, live from Washington, D.C.
	Today is April 3rd, 2024.
	Anno Domini.
	Battleground nightmare polls for Joe Biden, the installed President of the United States, the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
	You see, folks, and I'm looking through the poll numbers right here.
	And if we can get it up, guys, this is massive.
	This is massive because it is an entire repudiation of what Joe Biden and his campaign have been saying, saying, oh, America doesn't want Trump.
	America doesn't like Trump.
	Show the map, guys.
	Show the map.
	This is what America will look like if the poll is taking place today.
	If the election is taking place based around these polls, landslide.
	You're talking a landslide victory for Trump.
	Here's why.
	Two very basic issues.
	And this is the Wall Street Journal saying this.
	This isn't Jack Posobiec.
	It's not Human Events.
	It's not War Room.
	It's not Charlie Kirk.
	No.
	You got the Wall Street Journal, which is run by the globalists.
	You've got MSNBC coming out and covering it as well.
	Every single battleground state, Trump is up.
	And in Wisconsin, it's tied.
	Now, we're going to have Richard Barris on later, and he's going to be on with us for the whole show to walk you through all of the permeations of this, how it matters as pertains specifically to not only the Trump-Biden matchup, because I think it's ridiculous that people are even asking that question in polls, because that's not what the ballot is going to be.
	That's not how America votes.
	You will be given multiple choices.
	We don't know exactly who all of those candidates are, so I get it.
	You got to do something for the polls.
	But RFK, Jill Stein, Cornel West, these are very serious contenders, very serious people with national impact on their ballots.
	Do I think they're going to win the election?
	No, I'm not saying that.
	But what I'm saying is, Their candidacies and appearances on the ballot itself are going to have national impact in swing state after swing state.
	And that's what we're going to go through here.
	I'm going to be very clear.
	Republicans are winning.
	Really, Trump is winning because this election is being swung on two issues.
	Key battlefront in key states.
	Economy and immigration.
	Economy and immigration.
	Economy and immigration!
	What are you talking about if you're not talking about economy and immigration?
	We're going to fix the economy, and we're going to fix immigration.
	And you don't need to talk about anything else right now.
	Honestly.
	If something comes up, somebody asks you a question, guns, yeah, 2A all day.
	2A all day.
	First Amendment, free speech, 1A all day.
	Got it.
	100%.
	No question.
	Foreign policy, America first.
	Okay?
	But for the American people, for the American people who want to get these votes, every candidate out there is seeking to have all these people that are trying to put other countries ahead of the United States again.
	Immigration and economy.
	Immigration and economy.
	and focus on this. - Ladies and gentlemen, one of the best ways that you can support us here at Human Events and the work that we do is subscribing to us on our Rumble channel, Make sure you're subscribed.
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	Yearning deep inside for this book called Unhumans I Just Can't Hide.
	All right, Jack Posobiec back here.
	Human Events Daily live from Washington, D.C.
	And we've got folks, as we speak, Texas is now picking up the pieces after 1.1 million acres of land was destroyed in one of the worst wildfires in history.
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	Alright, so we're very excited to look at this poll, to dig into these numbers.
	Guys, what we're seeing here is nothing short of massive.
	What we're seeing here is nothing short of a watershed moment.
	Because when we see this, when we see this going on, when we see these changes happening, that means your voices make an impact.
	Your work that we do here, time in and time out, is actually making a difference.
	Richard Barras is joining us now here, Human Events.
	You know, Rich, you guys over there, a big data poll.
	Rich is the people's pundit, by the way, folks.
	You've been telling us this all along.
	We've been putting the word out.
	We've been telling people what to focus on.
	Focus on the economy.
	Focus on immigration.
	And so for all the people on MSNBC, running around with their heads exploding, saying, how could this have happened?
	How could this have happened?
	Rich, If they had just listened to you, if they had just listened to human events on a regular basis, they would have known that this day was coming.
	Give us your reaction here.
	Yeah, Jack, thanks for having me, as always, and I hope you guys had a happy Easter, by the way.
	I had a great one.
	We did.
	We actually celebrated the Trans Day of Visibility.
	We opted for the Transgender Day, so we're going to be doing Easter at a later time.
	We thought that may be a little offensive.
	I don't know.
	I've been saying Christ is King a lot.
	What can I say?
	No, we had a great Easter, man.
	Me too, and yeah, I mean this poll came out a couple hours after we put Pennsylvania with the Rust Belt poll up on peoplespundit.locals.com.
	Now it's public, and everyone can look at it, and they can check it out on Big Data Poll, but it's remarkable how similar this is.
	Jack, we have Trump, but a little bit bigger of a lead, only because we have Biden a little bit lower vote share than the Wall Street Journal does, but we have Trump's vote share in the initial, before we leaned anybody, right exactly where they are.
	You know, that's called a consensus.
	You know, but where it's coming from is really interesting.
	And I was just on my show trying to explain to people how I think Pennsylvania, for instance, the state your state is going to be a little bit different this time.
	You know, I mean, Trump is gaining in the Northeast.
	He's gaining in Philadelphia, you know, but and he is gaining in the Philadelphia Burbs.
	But I do see what some of the other pollsters are talking about with, you know, perhaps underperforming what looks to be underperforming in some other areas.
	But it doesn't matter because, I mean, you get in the 40s in Allegheny, Jack.
	You get 20%, 22% in Philadelphia.
	By the way, we did predict he would get a higher vote share in Philadelphia last time.
	He did.
	He went from 13 to nearly 20.
	Now he's routinely above that.
	So it's a real – Which, by the way, people need to understand that that is insane for a Republican to get a vote share like that out of the county of Pennsylvania or Philadelphia.
	And I always say this, people, when it comes to Pennsylvania, that Pennsylvania politics, that just because Philadelphia is a Democrat stronghold, okay, that does not mean it is still not one of the largest Republican counties in a statewide race.
	So presidential elections are run statewide.
	That means that even if you go county by county, And you're thinking, oh, well, what do I need to worry about Philadelphia?
	It's all Democrats.
	I should focus on Lancaster.
	I should focus on your county.
	I should focus on the teen focus center.
	Sure.
	But now you're missing all the Republicans and potential Republicans that could come out and vote for you.
	Last time I checked, Philadelphia was still like the third largest Republican county in all of Pennsylvania.
	So you're just going to miss all of those potential voters.
	particularly that with the Northeast.
	Now some of your, you're seeing some demographic shifts from that as well, but the idea that he's now picking up more and more of those votes, there's no question to me.
	And by the way, this is something, a point that Trump makes himself time and time again, not about Pennsylvania, but about his own home city of New York. - Yeah. - Yeah, and I'll tell you, and there was a poll from Emerson in New Jersey, because I have been thinking about that.
	If New York, depending on whether it's a head-to-head or a three-way race or a five-way race, if New York is 9 to 15 points, which the Siena College poll really has no record of being too Trumpy, but that's what they're showing.
	If New York is really 9 to 15 points, then I wonder what New Jersey is.
	Because New Jersey, even though it's one of two states that voted more for Barack Obama in 2012 than it did in 2008, Uh, there have been some very close races there and, you know, in the era of Bush, it wasn't that, it was like a five, six point state, you know?
	Uh, the Emerson College poll has it seven points.
	And I actually can see how that could happen, you know, doing just pulling in because we pulled Michigan and Pennsylvania.
	But in Pennsylvania, as you know, there's a huge chunk we were just talking about that we refer to as the tri-state area.
	And look at that.
	I mean, there are a lot of votes in the southeast.
	So I'll tell you what, Jack, I would propose something radical here.
	Of course you don't want to leave him alone.
	Look at his support in Wilkes.
	Look at the Northeast under Trump.
	Because the Republicans get crushed there, by the way, folks.
	For those who don't know, there aren't that many red locator pins in the Northeast in Pennsylvania when it's not Donald Trump.
	Uh, he's already, he's doing fantastic there, and you want to give and show those people love, but I'm telling you- Which by the way, by the way, I mentioned that, I mentioned, real quick, I mentioned that New York City, of course, you know, Queens, and, and with the officer that was slain, um, Queens is, and New York City are Trump's hometown.
	Northeast Pennsylvania, who, who, which one of the candidates is from there again, Rich?
	That's from, that's from Scranton Joe, right?
	Oh, Scranton Joe, right!
	That's right!
	And I'm telling you, Pennsylvania, of course, is a complicated state, but man, I would go to Philadelphia.
	I would go to Pittsburgh.
	I would do this.
	At the very least, people who are around the area will drive on in, but you give those people an opportunity to hear your message and you get that media coverage.
	And there's just Jack, there's something going on.
	We played a little trick on some of them.
	You know, there was only George Jorgensen as a third party candidate on the ballot in 2020.
	We had multiple people.
	We know our Biden voters.
	You know, we were just talking about this on the show to telling us, by the way, was a massive strategic error by the Republicans.
	A massive own goal to only let a candidate on let there be a candidate on the ballot who hurts you in every single swing state to not have another third party candidate up there.
	So the Libertarian candidate Does for the Democrats what the Green Party does for the Republicans, okay?
	Because that peels off.
	It's not a lot of votes, but guess what?
	When you're in one of – and I said before you came on, Rich, that this – what you're talking about is how these candidates, where I say they don't have national election prospects because they're not going to win, but they do have a national election impact.
	Yeah.
	And speaking of which, because we're looking at even the results that came in yesterday, there's some interesting votes yesterday.
	You know, I mean, it's primary electorate.
	They're the most high interest people out there.
	The most resistance you're going to see.
	And again, I just I really can't help but to look at the maps and just say, and it's true, nothing ever stays the same, Jack.
	You know, so people are always looking at these polls and looking at these maps, looking at these votes and scrutinizing some of the things, you know, that we're talking about realignment, scrutinizing things like that.
	I would ask them to point to a period in electoral history where the electorate was just the same year after year after year after year.
	Like, you know, we've had 30 year periods of realignment.
	We're about in that period now.
	I mean, we would expect.
	I mean, there are a lot of people who have been defeated in the House and in the Senate.
	had Republicans not fought Donald Trump and resisted their own guy, but they did, and they created an identity crisis.
	But guess what?
	Rona's out, Watley's in.
	Rona's out, Lara's in.
	You know, I mean, there are a lot of people who have been defeated in the House and in the Senate.
	There's more to do, don't get me wrong, but it does appear to me that he is starting to change the face.
	He being President Trump, the former president, starting to change the face of the party in a way he couldn't do in 20 because he was the sitting president.
	So every time they stabbed him in the back, it just looked awful.
	Now there's really nobody of consequence for the voter to look at.
	So when they think about the Republican Party, they can start to begin to think about populism and things that resonate in that area of the country.
	Because I'll tell you what, generic Republicans on the House ballot, the senators, what would You know, consider the presumptive nominees in these states for Senate.
	They're running way behind Donald Trump.
	Way behind.
	I mean, Democrats are leading on the generic ballot in Pennsylvania right now by four points.
	Republicans are having a hard time cracking 40%.
	It's pathetic.
	It really is.
	And there are, I can see it clear as day, Josh Shapiro, the governor, Democratic governor, is actually rather popular.
	People should go to Big Data Poll and check it out.
	Look at how many Shapiro-Trump votes there are.
	It's like, how is this happening?
	And it's happening because – Which is completely unearned, by the way, and we're coming up on a quick break here.
	But as a guy who has known Josh Spiro for a long time, he was my county commissioner.
	I remember he was state rep.
	I went and campaigned against him.
	This is a bad guy.
	And for a lot of people, he's pulled the wool over their eyes, and he is someone who has a deep, deep-seated hatred for Republicans, conservatives, and anyone who is not part of his particular economic class.
	and his economic set.
	We're all in with Jack Posobiec.
	We'll have a quick break here at Human Events Daily. - Free order in large humans.
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	All right, folks.
	Jack Pacific back live human events daily.
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	Rich Barris is on with us again.
	Rich, walk me through You're going through, so Big Data Poll has Pennsylvania up.
	You've gone on to the granular level.
	You're going like street by street in Pennsylvania.
	And then Wall Street Journal's coming out with their battleground poll, which finds many of the same trend lines that you're finding.
	Walk me through what you found in terms of race and then age.
	Oh, huge.
	Huge.
	And let me just say in the Shapiro thing, real quick, two seconds.
	If you look where those Shapiro Trump voters are, it tells a huge story about why Republicans are an ineffective countervailing force.
	And that's another debate.
	But people should really think about that.
	Uh, on age and race is really, uh, the, the headline.
	And I think of the poll, there are race specifically in education by race and gender is just huge because Pennsylvania, unlike Michigan, for instance, there's like 5% of the electorate that is Hispanic and about 11 to 12% that, that are black African-American, um, Hispanics in Michigan were pretty close in Pennsylvania.
	They weren't that close.
	We.
	Are being told by Hispanics in Pennsylvania that, yeah, we voted for Biden, you know, 60 something, 30 something.
	And now they're like dead even or Trump's got, depending on the ballot scenario, Trump's got a little lead, Biden's got a little lead, but just massive gains.
	And then the African American story, I think, is really the big story.
	I mean, there are just these wards in Philadelphia that if they vote, It's South Philly!
	It's South Philly.
	South Philly is Rocky Philly.
	better for people who don't know it's largely two wards in philadelphia a lot of italians um that's what beefed up uh trump's support in 20 along with some african-american votes it's south philly it's south philly south philly is rocky philly that's rocky's footwork that's rocky philadelphia and then you got the northeast yes yeah and then speaking of which as you get out of it and into areas like bucks um you know the the white
	the the white vote and bucks a little bit more educated um you know it's it's not where republicans have been in the past you know that once upon a time could win bucks Biden still seems to be a little bit holding his own there, but it doesn't matter.
	You go into a place like Pittsburgh and I mean, if it's a steelworker and, you know, an Allegheny Jack, it doesn't, it almost doesn't matter anymore if they're white or they're black.
	There's like this overall, I mean, of course it does, but I mean, they are becoming, the shift is massive and it's not just men.
	It's not just those who don't have a college education, even though I just pointed to a steelworker.
	The college-educated, female, non-white Pennsylvania told us they voted for Biden 80-something to 13, which is about right.
	Now Trump is in the 30s with him, almost hitting—I mean, that's incredible.
	That's ridiculous.
	Even if he comes anywhere near those numbers, Jack, then Biden's got a big problem.
	And Biden's not doing as well in the Philadelphia suburbs.
	We would expect them to continue to inch and inch and inch to the left as all of these elections go on.
	But it's becoming a point now where he's treading water instead of Really?
	Because, because this is, you know, and people know this is my hometown.
	That's, that's my, that's, that's where I'm from just outside Philly on the Montgomery County side.
	And then, of course, the Collar County, Bucks, Chester, and Delaware, Delco.
	You know, these are, Delco is the most working class of any of them.
	Lower Marion, that's where Shapiro is from, by the way.
	Narsetown's where I'm from.
	Other side of the tracks, as it were.
	And it's interesting because I will say, though, just anecdotally, I know from having family in the area that crime has been on the rise there.
	That crime has been on the rise there, and here's why.
	And here's why.
	Because specifically violent crime and the perception of violent crime has gone up because you have this, and Bucks County has seen a lot of extreme violence as well, because what's happened is that you've got people coming out of that city, coming out of Philadelphia, and they're coming into the suburbs, and they're coming out of Philadelphia, and they're coming into the suburbs, and they're bringing that They're bringing that same type of lawlessness.
	Because specifically violent crime and the perception of violent crime has gone up because you have this.
	And Bucks County has seen a lot of extreme violence as well.
	Because what's happened is that you've got people coming out of that city, coming out of Philadelphia, and they're coming into the suburbs and they're bringing that out there.
	They're bringing that same type of violence in ways that, in particularly places like, now in Norristown, Pennsylvania, yeah, that's always been violent.
	That's been going really bad since the 90s, and right now it's completely out of control, and people are getting shot up on the street where, like, learned how to ride a bike, and that's been really bad.
	And so it's so horrific that it doesn't surprise me that the current incumbent in the presidential office is seeing potentially some consequences from it.
	Yeah, I mean, if he's going to counter what Trump is doing in the Northeast, which is just insane, if he's going to counter that, and then, of course, couple that with Allegheny.
	Two swing counties, folks, for people who don't know, are Erie and Northampton.
	Erie is all the way in the northwestern corner of the state.
	Northampton is right outside the Philadelphia suburbs on the eastern border of the state, but a little bit south.
	It's not quite central.
	Those are the two only ones that swing.
	Everything else is about the margins.
	Northampton looks like it's coming back.
	If you go and look at the map and look at the interview details, you'll see.
	Erie County, same deal.
	The general demographic makeup of who lives out there, it looks like Trump is going to carry Erie He won it against Clinton in 16.
	He lost it against Biden in 2020.
	Same thing for Northampton, by the way.
	But this is if Biden's going to counter all of that, he needs to just keep squeezing larger margins out of the burbs of Philly, as well, of course, as Philadelphia itself.
	And that doesn't seem to be the case.
	It feels like they've hit a plateau, and Trump's actually doing a little bit better with educated whites.
	So if that stays the course, Jack, then he just can't do it.
	By the way, the Wall Street Journal poll is Trump by three.
	We also asked the true ballot with A third party candidate on it.
	But then we also ask voters, what if you don't have any other choice and it's just Biden and Trump?
	And when you force them to lean, it gets closer.
	But Trump is above 50.
	We've never had Trump above 50.
	Never.
	And he's above 50 and leads Biden by a few points.
	And that's a big deal.
	I mean, statistically, it's a big deal.
	We've usually had Trump in the neighborhood of 48 percent, 47 percent.
	In these final polls, he got 48.8.
	In 2020, very close to what we we predicted he would get.
	So the fact that he is above 50 when we lean these people is just huge.
	And he's already he leads Biden by four in just the head to head without the leaners, which is very close to the Wall Street Journal.
	Very close.
	Super close.
	I mean, so the point, by the way, the age thing, which I didn't get to everybody, it's not just me.
	I mean, it's to the point now where we're not talking about gains.
	You know, people are finding Trump leading with voters under 35 in several of these polls.
	It's just remarkable, Jack.
	It's remarkable.
	Never would happen in 16 or 20, Jack.
	I mean, that's really something people have to understand.
	When I'm doing these polls and sitting at home and looking through the data and getting them ready for release, it's really stunning how things have changed.
	Trump leading with under 35s.
	I would argue, by the way, that that's also very similar to what Trump's strategy has been by going to something that you outlined, a group of people, the idea of a zero propensity voter.
	And this idea that there are people who may be registered to vote, maybe not, and they don't engage with the news cycle.
	They don't engage with Fox or CNN or MSNBC or any of this stuff.
	They're not watching human events, certainly.
	Yes.
	They're online.
	They're out there.
	This is your – but they might listen to Joe Rogan and they might watch UFC.
	They're complaining at the bar.
	Yes.
	And they might go to the bar and they're complaining.
	And then they look up and who do they see at the UFC fight?
	Donald Trump.
	Yeah.
	Who do they see on their favorite podcast?
	Donald Trump shows up.
	And so this strategy that he's been making to embrace these non-traditional forms of media and non-political media, all the non-political, non-news media he's doing, I would argue, obviously, in addition to the issue set, does it actually seem obviously, in addition to the issue set, does it actually seem like it's paying off?
	Yeah.
	Yeah, I mean, he's got to get them to the polls, but when we speak to them... Indeed, yes.
	That's a huge element of this.
	That's the Scott Kressler quotient.
	Yeah, and someone like Scott really gets this.
	You're going to have these Republicans who drive me and Scott nuts, frankly.
	They just won't vote early, right?
	And they're high-propensity Republicans.
	You cannot use the word early voting or mail-in voting.
	You can use early, but you can't say mail-in voting.
	They'll immediately regurgitate and recoil and run away.
	You have to talk a different way to them, which we've learned how to do.
	But you've got to get those people that you were just talking about, because you have to make it easy for them to vote.
	So get them and I think Laura understands, get them on the permanent absentee ballot list and then just make sure by multiple points of contact, which I'm not gonna reveal, you know, you get in touch with them and you remind them and you track them and make sure.
	You're not going to win the early vote over Democrats, but you won't get killed 85-15 in Pennsylvania like Republicans keep getting killed.
	Maybe instead it'll be 65-35 or 70-30 if you really do a good job.
	You know, 65-35 would be incredible.
	Then you still have all of your three out of fours and four out of fours that just won't bite and want to vote on Election Day because there was never a culture of early voting in a state like Pennsylvania.
	And they come out and put you over the top.
	It's a simple way to think about it, but that's what they gotta do.
	This is exactly how we win.
	Rich Barris.
	Early voting.
	You gotta get in.
	And we got to make it happen.
	The next day we continue.
	We'll be right back.
	We'll be right back.
	All right, Chuck, what's up with Cuban Events Daily?
	We are on live with Rich Barris, The People's Planet.
	We're walking through the Wall Street Journal poll, as well as his deep, granular poll of Pennsylvania.
	Pennsylvania, a tough state to crack, a tough nut to crack.
	President Trump, the only Republican presidential candidate in recent history to swing the state, the only one since the Reagan era.
	Now, Rich, when we're looking at, let's, let's expand out into the Rust Belt.
	So Pennsylvania, and everybody knows this, but you know, for anyone who doesn't, it's, it starts as an Acela kind of like Acela Corridor State in the East.
	And then as you move across, Then it becomes like you've got Kentucky in the middle there, and then it becomes more and more of a Rust Belt state as western as you go.
	As you get past the Alleghenies, now you're in a Rust Belt state, and that's western Pennsylvania.
	This is your fracking area.
	This is your Marcella Shale find.
	That's what bleeds into Ohio, and then that pushes you, and as you come across Ohio, you come across Indiana.
	Now let's get into The other two big ones of the Rust Belt, Wisconsin, Michigan.
	What are you looking at up there?
	Yeah, we also pulled Michigan.
	That won't be public very, very soon, but I mean, I'll just give you the skinny on it, Jack.
	I mean, I'm stunned.
	I love the skinny.
	I'm stunned again considering how hard Michigan is for a Republican to carry.
	And of course, both times, Michigan was the most difficult of the three for Trump to perform in.
	He won in 16 by about 10,000 votes, and then he lost by the larger margin out of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, the big three.
	He lost by the biggest margin, still very close, but that was the widest one.
	And now it's really getting Trumpy.
	You saw the CNN poll, Trump lost 10.
	We're not there, but it's very clear that Trump is just Romping it in the old Obama, Genesee, you know, definitely Macomb, you know, so the old Obama territory, Saginaw, those areas.
	And it has surprised me.
	And the more I've thought about it, the more I've thought maybe it shouldn't surprise us.
	Like I said, things do change.
	And based on the demographics that we are seeing realigning, Maybe we should have expected this.
	Wisconsin, on the flip side, which has been the most Trumpy out of the three in the last two elections, appears to be pulling the best for Biden.
	And there is a reason to think that may be right.
	First of all, there are a lot less Scandinavian ethnicity Midwest voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
	Of course, they have some.
	But that's why Minnesota is so difficult.
	It has the most.
	And there are two out of that group that are really difficult.
	Finns and Swedes.
	And they're just more liberal and have been.
	This goes back many years.
	However, in Wisconsin, there's also a huge chunk of Norwegians.
	And that's the battle.
	You know, that's how it gets so close.
	In Michigan, because the shift is so non-white, It kind of makes sense because Michigan, of course, has a larger black population than than Wisconsin, which is whiter and more Asian, you know.
	And then even Republicans in a state like Wisconsin tend to be a little bit more attitudinally.
	Pennsylvania and Michigan are much more Trump-like attitudinally, whereas in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it's more like Minnesota, Wisconsin, nice, you know, kind of thing.
	So, attitudinally, it should make.
	So, the point I'm trying to make is, even though Wisconsin tends to throw pollsters for a loop, and the temptation for Republicans to think it will be the most Trumpy again this year, regardless of the polling, I would say caution.
	I don't know if that's going to be the case.
	And I really do think that these swings in Michigan are real, and there's a reason to expect that to happen.
	Like we just talked about in the last segment, all of those groups, it would impact Michigan more.
	And by the way, the author and the thesis writer of the Emerging Democratic Majority spends all his day on Substack flipping out about Michigan, and Georgia, but Michigan, because it really is indicative of that non-white, non-college shift.
	And if that happens, the Electoral College is going to be really, really difficult for a Democrat to carry.
	I mean, Joe Biden needs a plus four nationally.
	Jackie does, in order to make sure he gets to college.
	You need that.
	The only bigger.
	It would be remiss of us to not talk about how – so you and I have been talking about the Rust Belt strategy, and this is sort of recreating the 2016 path to victory.
	Let's get the map up for everyone to see.
	The only bigger.
	And do so in a bigger way.
	However, what MSNBC has now caught on to and what Charlie Kirk spearheaded yesterday, which is now working its way through the Nebraska legislature, that we can now get to the point where, and this is amazing, there becomes another path to the presidency.
	What does that mean?
	Nebraska going winner take all is it what that's just one vote like why does that make such a difference?
	It makes a difference because of the math.
	This is chestnut checkers.
	Okay, people need to understand that if you and if we get the map up guys.
	That there are two states that allocate by district to yeah.
	Yeah.
	Yep.
	If you can get if you can get that state if you can get Nevada to go over now you get Now you get Nebraska to go win or take all.
	This gives you something called the Sun Belt Strategy.
	And the Sun Belt Strategy shows that if you win Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, plus a winner-take-all in Nebraska, that puts Trump at 269 without even winning a single one of the Rust Belt states.
	Rich, walk us through how dangerous this scenario becomes for the Democrats.
	Yeah, I mean, they have been not only relying on it, but I mean, the fact that they get that one district, which has been trending to them long before Trump came on the scene, by the way, it's some of the most dishonest analysis I've ever heard.
	It has been getting more blue because it's becoming a financial district.
	I mean, go check your mailbox, take out the card, you know, your credit card company, you know, the mail they send you from your credit card company and look at the date.
	That's the district in Nebraska.
	All right.
	Basically, the people have to understand, too, that 10 years ago, this wouldn't have worked.
	The census has changed the math.
	In 16, when Hillary Clinton was defeated, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, he absolutely needed, he didn't need Michigan, but he absolutely needed the Keystone State, at least, you know, because the math wasn't there, the old allocation of electoral votes was there.
	Now, because of the census, the South is gaining, the Northeast is losing, the West is gaining some as well.
	And part of the Sun Belt runs through the West, obviously.
	Nevada has been shifting at the presidential level, more and more to the right, even as the country moves to the left.
	So, for people who don't understand what I mean, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by two.
	Joe Biden won it by four.
	Yet, Nevada didn't budge.
	That's called a partisan voting index.
	It tells you the state is moving to the right.
	And Trump has routinely, consistently, including the last poll we just looked at, been leading in Nevada, and their team is different.
	They have a new way of thinking, like we were just talking about in the prior segment, about how to gather votes, how to make sure that you're not buried come election day in an avalanche of mail-in votes.
	They're not doing that this time.
	So, if you can pull off the Sunbelt strategy, thanks to the census, it already gets you to a point where, if there is a tie in the Electoral College, It gets thrown to the house.
	Who runs the house?
	Right.
	So, well, at least for now, if they don't sabotage it, Jack.
	But there's also the situation with Maine, which I'm not sure a lot of people... You see it right there.
	Okay, so they did move Maine.
	Okay, I was waiting for people to do this, Jack, and I'm looking at the map you have on the screen now.
	Maine has been lightly red in our map now for a couple of weeks.
	We weren't sure if it was going to hold or not.
	Others didn't do it yet because there isn't enough for the averages there.
	But there are two polls showing Trump is actually on the cusp of carrying the entire state, which is the only state like Nebraska that does not allocate win or take all.
	And it puts them on the back foot on everything.
	statewide vote, some college votes.
	You also have to get electoral college votes from congressional districts.
	Trump has carried Maine 2 before, but he has not carried the state.
	So that would be, that's what the Sunbelt strategy is all about.
	It gives you a lot more pass, but if not, it gives you a tie.
	And it puts them on the back foot on everything, absolutely everything.
	Coming back, Human Events Daily, Chestnut Checkers will walk you through the battleground of 2024.
	But I got a hankering yearning deep inside for this book called Unhumans.
	I just can't.
	All right.
	So back live final segment here.
	Human events daily.
	Rich, the Sun Belt strategy, so this new strategy, which isn't really, for Trump, isn't even actually a new strategy, that's the funny part of it, is obviously, it's actually something that Charlie And the Nebraska legislature, Governor Pillen, I'm told, by the way, that it looks like Ricketts is going to be coming on board as well with something that's going to drop later today.
	That if Nebraska drops their their electoral divination method, that they are going to be going for winner take all.
	Now you're going to have a situation where Democrats are forced to have to defend.
	They're going to be on defensive in places like Minnesota, in places like Colorado, places that they wouldn't have to worry about because that means that if Trump can win Nevada.
	All right.
	And there's there's some interest.
	And with the Hispanic swing, it's possible.
	Right.
	It's it's certainly on the table.
	Nevada?
	Whereas Nevada is usually a state, Nevada is usually a state which for Republicans is like, it's a nice to have, but it's usually not necessary.
	Now you go big in Nevada, which is a state where there was a Republican who won.
	It wasn't a Trumpy candidate, but there was a Republican who just won for governor. - Lombardo. - Now you've got a position, Lombardo.
	Now you've got a situation where all he has to do is pick up one state in the North.
	Just one.
	It could be Pennsylvania.
	It could be Michigan.
	It could be Wisconsin.
	It could be New Hampshire.
	And he's the president.
	It could be New Hampshire.
	And the Democrats have to defend all of it.
	Yeah, and I was just saying, I was trying to point out to people in Politico, it was kind of like under the radar, you know, but Joe Biden just sent a crack team.
	They're good people.
	Well, I'm aware of them, but basically a three person team with a nice size budget to go and defend Minnesota.
	Jack, there's all this talk right now about Joe Biden rebounding in the polls.
	He was way down.
	So a rebound is not really putting him in winning territory.
	The fact that they sent that team to Minnesota tells you everything you need to know about where they believe the state of the race is.
	Minnesota has Hennepin as Ramsey.
	There are huge numbers of boats, hundreds of thousands of boats that they net out of the Twin Cities.
	If they're getting itchy over in Minnesota, If they're getting antsy over Minnesota, they have a problem.
	Also, Nevada, I'm telling you, Lombardo, right, I mean, Trump endorsed him, but he was also, I mean, he's getting more Trumpy.
	He was kind of a key role in Nikki Haley being humiliated by losing to none of these candidates, because there wasn't an effort to have that happen.
	But Lombardo was asked by the media at an event, and there were all these people around, And they made it.
	They carried the message.
	He said, I'll tell you what, I'm going to vote on Tuesday for none of these candidates, and then I'm going to take my butt on Thursday to the caucus site and caucus for Donald Trump.
	And that made the rounds in Nevada, and a lot of people showed up to that primary expecting to vote for Donald Trump.
	Let me just say this about Nevada, because a lot of people have some big leads for Trump in that state.
	And he did it.
	Let me just say this about Nevada, because a lot of people have some big leads for Trump in that state.
	Lombardo, we had down by two points less than Adam Laxalt in Clark County.
	And that's what happened.
	In Washoe County, we had Laxalt down by more than he lost it by, but basically everybody was decided, whereas Lombardo was just up a little bit, and he won it.
	Trump was up in Washoe County by four points in that poll, and he was also damn near tied in Clark County.
	That's a win.
	So people ask, what is this shift in this nonwhite vote?
	Hispanics play a huge role in a state like that.
	It means everything.
	It absolutely means everything.
	You brought up Colorado before, but it's actually whiter and younger than a state like New Mexico, which has Somewhere 30, 40% of its electorate can be Hispanic.
	Joe Biden's entire margin in New Mexico was non-white.
	And if this shift is real, then Joe Biden's got a problem.
	They split the white vote down the middle in New Mexico in 2020.
	His entire 12-point or whatever roughly margin was from Hispanics.
	I mean, Jack.
	And by the way, Hispanics in New Mexico voted more for Trump than they did nationally.
	So if you're seeing this trend nationally and past his prologue...
	Then a state like New Mexico could get real close real fast.
	You know, so we'll have to see.
	And this is coming from a guy.
	I'm telling you, four, five, six years ago, when I heard people like Brad Parscale saying that, you know, I thought it was premature.
	I thought it was nuts.
	I really did.
	And I thought it was a waste of money.
	Now, it's not.
	Because it's not one or two people saying the gains are big enough in a state like Minnesota.
	This is everybody.
	This is a consensus.
	Trump's lead, Trump's strength in these states, I mean, of course he's getting huge numbers with white working class, but that's not what's fueling this shift.
	I long have said, you know, until this year, that it will be very, very difficult for a Republican to even think about winning the popular vote, especially with Hispanic growth in this country.
	It's just not going to happen.
	Until Hispanics stop voting for Democrats at rates like that.
	Well, that's why Trump is winning in these polls.
	That's why he's up, whether it's two or four, or they're even tied, or Biden's up by one or two.
	That's nothing.
	You know, I used to, I really did, man, a year or two years ago, I used to think even more than that.
	Back when Trump was running for reelection.
	Everything.
	You'd rather be Donald Trump.
	There's no doubt.
	to talk about.
	Man, I'm looking at the map right now, but I mean...
	You'd rather be Donald Trump.
	There's no doubt you would rather be Donald Trump.
	It's so rough.
	It's so rough for Biden.
	It's so rough.
	It's just putting him in a really bad... This is like one of those times when you're playing chess and somebody makes a move that seems kind of innocuous early in the game.
	And you say, oh, don't worry about that.
	That was just a pawn moved in a certain position, a certain combination.
	And then later on, when you get to the end stages of the game, you realize that's the pawn that's about to take out your entire kingdom.
	That's what the Sun Belt strategy just did.
	Rich Barris, where can people go to follow you to get more information about the Big Data Poll?
	Yeah, best place, Jack, we're everywhere, but the best place is peoplespundin.locals.com.
	Peoplespundin.locals.com.
	Supporters always get this stuff first, you know.
	Michigan's coming.
	Coming real soon.
	Be out real soon.
	Michigan's coming.
	I want to see it, folks.
	I want to see it.
	Alright, make sure you get your copy, pre-ordered copy of Un-Humans.
	What do we do here, folks, in that book?
	And what do we do here on the show?
	We talk about winning.
	No noise, only signal.
	We're going to talk about winning, winning, winning.

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