March 14, 2024 - Human Events Daily - Jack Posobiec
48:19
EPISODE 692: THE GEN X FACTOR THAT COULD WIN TRUMP THE WHITE HOUSE
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This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host Jack Posobiec.
Deliver us from evil!
I was always told that Andrew Jackson as a president was treated the absolute worst.
He was just really lambasted.
And I heard Abraham Lincoln was second, but he was in a thing called the Civil War, so you can understand that nobody has, when you think of the fake things, nobody's been treated like Trump in terms of badly.
I mean, it's pathetic that Donald Trump parallels himself to Abraham Lincoln and anybody else.
Also another thing happened to Abraham Lincoln that former President Trump didn't get to when he's assessing who was treated worse in terms of badly.
Just leave that right there.
We are still waiting to see whether or not Judge Scott McAfee will decide to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fannie Willis from the case.
We could hear a decision by the end of the week.
This legislation will help us ensure rogue or incompetent prosecutors are held accountable if they refuse to uphold the law.
When out-of-touch prosecutors put politics over public safety, the community suffers and people and property are put at risk.
In 2021, though, you did say that inflation was transitory.
Do you regret saying that now?
I regret saying it was transitory.
It has come down.
February's producer price index report just came out six minutes ago, and it shows wholesale inflation is up by 0.6% from January, which is more than expected.
Former President Donald Trump is expected in a Florida court.
His lawyers are pushing for charges to be dismissed in the case where he's accused of illegally holding classified documents.
I took them very legally, and I wasn't hiding them.
We had boxes on the front, and a lot of those boxes had clothing.
We're moving out, okay?
Unfortunately, we're moving out of the White House.
We weren't hiding anything.
He was.
Well, ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily.
We are here live at West Palm Beach.
Folks, I got to tell you.
So today, of course, March 14th, 2024, Anno Domini.
This poll out of Pennsylvania today shows you the way forward for Trump.
Now look, I know there's a lot of stuff going on today.
But we need to zoom in on this.
We need to laser focus on these groups.
Everyone's going to want to talk about, oh, the court cases, the court cases, and Fannie Willis, and Hunter Biden, did he do this?
Did he do that?
I said, look, look, that's all falling apart.
Signal, not noise.
Signal, not noise.
The court cases have become noise.
And do you want to know why they're falling apart?
I'll tell you right now.
The court cases are falling apart.
And there's a lot of people saying, oh gosh.
Gosh golly gee whiz, it seems like Trump is just so lucky.
He's just so lucky that they're all falling apart.
It must have had a four-leaf clover.
Must have had a shamrock in his pocket for St.
Patrick's Day.
No.
No.
They're not falling apart because he's lucky.
Number one is because the people he's facing in all of these cases and the people behind the machinations that give us these cases are scum.
They're disgusting.
These cases are a joke to begin with.
But it's also something called favor.
Because Trump has favor.
It's clear.
And anyone who's paying attention should look at this and say, this guy beats the odds way more than should be humanly possible.
And you know what?
I'm just going to leave it at that.
So now it's time to cut through the noise.
Now it's time to cut through all the nonsense that's out there and focus on the signal.
What matters most?
What matters most is winning the Rust Belt, winning Arizona, and winning Georgia.
When I see that Trump is now winning, Gen X voters in Pennsylvania by 12, by 12 points, that shows me not just a path forward, that shows me the absolute highway to absolute victory.
Understand, this is the way ahead.
These are the shifts.
You can't just look at these things as snapshots.
You have to look at the shifting demographics, the shifting poll numbers, and understand, the Gen X awakening is something that we've been talking about here on this program on Human Events for a long time.
Look, Elon Musk, and a lot of people aren't pointing this out.
I'll point it out.
Not only is he Gen X, Tucker Carlson Gen X, Glenn Greenwald, Joe Rogan, who recently said that he'd vote for Trump over Biden.
But Elon Musk, I think a lot of people forgot, he lived through all this once before in his lifetime.
Because he lived through South Africa being turned from an advanced country Into what it is now, using the same policies and the same insanity that they are unleashing in the United States.
That is why he's becoming activated and he's so vocal.
And we're going to find out very soon the political ramifications of all of this.
Stay tuned.
Richard Barris joins us next here on Events Daily.
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You can't be listening to all that slappy, whack, trimatizolitsabam-ship, nippy-bam-bam, like Human Events with Jack Posobiec.
Alright, Jack Pacific back live here at Human Events, Daly, West Palm Beach, Florida.
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promo code patriotmobile.com slash poso patriotmobile.com slash poso very excited to go into all of this go into all of this and understand what this means for our path forward We're going to bring Rich Barris, the People's Pundit, on with us now.
Rich, I'm looking at this thing.
I'm calling it the Gen X Factor because I've seen this Fox News poll.
It's out of Pennsylvania, but I would argue that this is not just a glimpse.
This is a path.
It is a path to absolute electoral domination because this Gen X poll is not something that Biden wants to see at all.
And by the way, Rich, I have to mention that Bloomberg is out today and they've got this whole big piece.
Josh Wingrove wrote it.
He goes, you know what Joe Biden should do?
And he thinks he's so smart.
He goes, Joe Biden should focus on the Rust Belt.
I said, wow!
What a great idea!
Oh, you mean the Rust Belt?
That's important?
That they should maybe focus on that a little bit?
It's incredible.
Rich Barris, how are you, man?
Living the dream, brother, as always.
And just before you brought me on, because I've been telling you what we've been spending the last 48 hours on, but just before you brought me on Quinnipiac, which is one of the worst pollsters in the Rust Belt, and it leans to the left a lot, they have Trump up by three.
If you look in the Quinnipiac poll, you're going to see the same thing.
That you're going to see in the Fox poll, which is what we have been trying to explain people now for a very long time, Jack.
There are only two groups in this country that are getting more democratic, 65 plus and white with college education.
Everybody else is leaning more to the right.
Everyone else, including blacks who have or have not have a college, you know, do or do not have a college degree, Hispanics.
I mean, and yes, younger voters as well, which by the way, will be a huge chunk of the electorate moving forward in this country.
And so, there's something about, though, about Gen— because it's not just Gen X, right?
It's Gen X, but also Gen X's influence, in a sense, on Zoomers, on Millennials.
So, when you're talking Gen X, and Gen X up 12, which is enormous.
Look, I was at American Moment a couple of nights ago in Washington, D.C.
Who did we have?
We had David Sachs.
David Sachs, another one of the PayPal mafia guys, just like Elon.
Elon Musk.
These guys are all Gen X. Tucker Carlson, Gen X.
Joe Rogan, Gen X.
I'm Gen X.
Even though, even the, Rich Barish, Gen X.
I'm like cusp.
I'm like in between Gen X and Millennial.
And the Barstool guys, a lot of the Barstool guys, those guys are Gen X as well.
So when you, Dana White, pretty much everyone associated with UFC with the exception of the fighters themselves, They're all Gen X. So what am I trying to say?
I'm trying to say that Gen X has come online and has come online in a big way and is normally the generation.
I mean, Rich, have you ever seen them this activated?
Have you ever seen them this engaged in the political process?
Because I've never seen it.
Well, it's funny.
A while ago, about a year ago, Robert Barnes and I did a What are the Odds?
When we first identified this movement with Gen X, and I mean, I grew up as one, you're on the cusp, but you still have experience with it, right, Jack?
I mean, we were raised very liberal.
We were raised told that, you know, up to God knows what term in the pregnancy, that is a fetus, a bunch of cells, not a baby.
But we were also raised during the period, we were coming into age during 9-11.
And, you know, the Republican Party at that time was in control, screwed up big time.
Then it led to the Great Recession.
It hurt a lot of Generation X people.
If you had your feet on the ground and you were kind of successful, you were hurt.
If you weren't and you took some time, and Generation X took a long time to fully engage in the economy and the political process, then maybe you were just getting your feet when that happened and it wiped you out and took you out again.
Now they're re-engaging, and there was a period where Generation X was doing very well, and that was under the Trump administration.
You can take something for granted pretty easily, and we're not talking about policy only here in life.
That's what human beings do.
And then when it's taken away, and you have to deal with something else, and it's so close in your memory where you can you know, make an A-B comparison between the two.
I think, you know, they don't want to go back.
I think they just don't, they don't want to go back.
And it's funny because we're thinking about President Trump being the prior president, but Joe Biden represents a backwards movement, Jack.
He does.
Back to business as usual.
And that business hurt a lot.
And this is an interesting insight because it actually becomes one of Trump's greatest strengths.
I started saying this recently kind of on Twitter, just sort of, you know, testing the waters a little bit, doing my A-B testing thing over there.
But Trump actually in this election, his message isn't necessarily a message of you should elect me because I'm Donald Trump.
He's actually kind of campaigning, and it came to me Saturday night I was watching the end of his rally, that his message is a return to normalcy.
Which is hilarious because, you know, everything about Trump is different than every politician we've ever talked about before.
He's a disruptor, but basically the pitch is something along the lines of, you know, things have gone so far that you need a disruptor to get back to normal.
So, you know, I guess the line should be, sometimes you need to try something different to get back to things as usual.
Yeah.
Nate Cohen, maybe two months ago, had written an article that basically said that.
It was when they put out their first poll, not the one that was recent, which everyone had a heart attack over because Trump had a significant lead, but it was still a Trump lead.
It just wasn't as big as this prior one.
And he wrote an article saying, look, This may be difficult for some people who are especially not Trump supporters to swallow, but Trump is winning people who are people who truly can be persuadable.
So maybe they disliked both Hillary and him in 2016, but they gave him a shot.
And then four years later, they said, you know what?
I'm going with Biden.
Now they're back to Trump.
To those voters, he does represent a back to normal because There was a new normal that was being sold to the country under Obama, and when Trump first came along, he said that doesn't have to be the new normal.
We could go back to America's normal, which isn't 2% economic growth.
It's not a border that's completely broken.
It's not a ridiculous foreign policy.
That leaves the world in shambles and us less rich.
We could go back to doing things the way America always has done it.
And that worked in 2016.
And obviously he had four years to deliver on that.
It was with the constant chaos that was sown from the media, from the various complexes, the halls of power that didn't like him.
It masked the fact that he did get most of those promises were fulfilled.
And it took a Biden-like figure to come along and destroy it.
And now to those voters, he represents the return to their new normal, which is- And you know what it is?
You know what it is, too?
He doesn't have the halo effect that Obama had, right?
He doesn't have the halo effect that the figure of Obama had, the personality, the charisma that Obama had with his voters, certainly with independents, with moderates, and then with Biden.
You're really just kind of looking at the politics.
If anything, the guy's negative riz because you see him up there and he's kind of goddering his loud, slurring his words, and so you do end up focusing on the policies more.
And when they look at it, they say, wait a minute, I don't want to live like this at all.
And so, you know, what Trump should also do and what the Trump campaign should also do is, is start attacking the new normal.
Say, you know what?
I've had enough of the new normal.
I want to go back to the old normal.
Can we get some of the old normal back?
Let's, let's, you know what?
Then I'm done with the new normal.
We tried the new normal.
Okay.
We tried the new normal.
And it's, it's great because there's all these sort of like, You know, it's very Marxoid when you think about it.
Establishing a new normal.
A baseline.
A year zero.
This is now normal.
No more new norms.
Let's just go back to the old way.
Let's go back to the old thing.
Bring back the Pizza Hut the way that it was.
None of this new stuff.
We're done.
We're out.
New normal is out.
Old normal is in.
Which, by the way, I'm so mad at Pizza Hut for their Uh, BrickSoup just sent me a, you know, a video of one of these Pizza Huts being desecrated and turned into like some monstrosity.
Um, that, uh, you know, I, I, it's like I gave Pizza Hut so much free marketing last year and then they turn around and put out this, this Super Bowl commercial of nonsense, absolute nonsense.
And I say, well, Pizza Hut nationalism, when they talk about Pizza Hut nationalism, it's about that.
It's the return to the old, Still in your uniform.
playing a little league game catching the ball winning that winning the big game and then all going out and having a meal with your buddies and your mom and dad are there and your coach that's what it's about it's about community high trust societies yeah you're in the uniform and the other one the kid goes out he's got the cheese and he's like you know trying to talk to the girl because it's her birthday party I'm like, that's the kind of stuff we need to bring back.
No more of the new normal.
Give me back some of that old normal.
Rich Barris is our guest.
We're coming up on a quick break here.
Had to get that out.
I'll let Rich talk more in the next segment.
I promise, folks.
Human Events Daily continues.
You talk about influences.
These are influences.
And they're friends of mine, Jack Posovic.
Where's Jack?
Jack, he's done a great job.
All right, Jack Posovic back live, human events daily in beautiful West Palm Beach, Florida, down here for a couple of events.
You'll be seeing some folks joining us here live in studio while we're on location.
Not here for fun, we're here for work.
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The media comes out immediately telling us, oh, it was great, it was energetic.
Energetic was the word they used.
Oh, they're just fawning.
You know, Chris Matthews, you know, he probably felt the electric drill up his leg.
Walk me through though, how did the American people, how did the American people view this State of the Union?
Is he getting the State of the Union bump that presidents typically and traditionally do receive?
Short term, short answer, no.
Longer answer is that they, yeah, they were gushing over the State of the Union snap polls, which are different than Traditional polls.
So when people were saying that 60 plus percent said they approve or agree with him on this policy, that's not true.
Those are people who watch the State of the Union, which is not everybody.
It's not the same population.
But Joe Biden's number, his approval number in that State of the Union speech may sound high to people who don't track these things, but it's a terrible number.
In fact, you would have to go back to George Bush pushing for the surge in Iraq.
To see those State of the Union numbers, Jack.
That's how bad they were.
So I'm not surprised that the bounce didn't come.
In fact, he's getting a reversal.
There was at least some polling to suggest that as they were coming up to wrapping up their nominations, the race was tightening somewhat.
You know, a poll like Morning Consult, which has been closer than others, Went back to Biden plus one.
Now it's back to Trump leading.
But Suffolk University was another one that was conducted after the State of the Union.
Trump is back up.
He was up a point more than he was in their prior poll.
But I mean, the numbers for the State of the Union speech were abysmal.
So Trump would get in the 70s for, do you approve of the message in the State of the Union?
Trump would get close to 80% sometimes.
So would Barack Obama.
And that would result in a slight polling bump, an approval bump.
For Joe Biden, he didn't get either approval or an election bump.
It's going backwards.
And as we came on the air, again, I have to bring this up because when you're a Democratic president or a nominee for that matter, And you're losing in Michigan in the Quinnipiac poll, which didn't get a single Rust Belt or battleground state correctly in the last two presidential elections.
They all misfired in the Democrat direction.
When you're down and down this bad, because inside the numbers it looks a lot worse than the top line, then you got a real problem.
I mean, there's no bounce here.
There's no bump.
No, the only bump that he got was the bump to wake him up, you know, of his daily walking coma that, you know, maybe it was Jill or Jeff Zents, one of the chief of staff, I don't know, one of these guys giving him, that was the bump, you know, to get him up.
Wake up, Joe!
Wake up, we gotta go!
You know, just pouring coffee down his gullet to get him up there.
Which, I gotta say, to be fair, and I will be fair, I'm an objective guy when it comes to political analysis.
The opening, he was very energetic, but then it was the heckling, it was Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Lakin-Riley flub, which you could tell that he knew he flubbed in the middle of it.
That's when it got under his skin.
That's when he got lost.
And the rest of the speech after that was a complete... I'm just saying from a delivery standpoint, was a complete disaster.
The first 20 minutes, ballpark we'll call it, was pretty decent.
But the White House has a process for this.
They basically, and you can see it, it's public, they clear his schedule.
They get down what he's going to say to make sure he's well prepared for it and then well rested.
And they clear that schedule to make sure the president has got plenty of nap time before he has to deliver that speech.
And then God knows what they put in that, you know, You are 100% correct.
Joe Biden, folks, never had a stutter.
I mean, I've been following Joe Biden for most of my adult life.
He did not have a stutter.
This is a ridiculous excuse.
What happened is exactly what you just said, Jack.
He knew calling her Lincoln Riley was bad.
And then he just got tripped up in his mind.
He knew it was a mistake.
It's very common for people who are getting older and are having mental, their mental faculties decline.
They get very frustrated and they get even angry.
I mean, that's just the fact that because he did get very bitter, very divisive and very angry toward, you know, the, let's say after 20 minutes, it really spiraled downhill.
You know, the former president put a post on Truth Social, which I actually think he nailed.
He said, oh, the drugs are wearing off.
And he may be joking or not, but the fact is, he pinpointed the moment in that speech where it really started to spiral out of control.
And I don't know if the media, you know, and the MSNBC types, the Joe Scarborough saying he's never seen him sharper.
I don't know if they even believe that anymore.
But the fact is, if they do, they're in a true bubble because now it's been popped.
I mean, we've had time.
Pollsters like me have been in the field.
Wait until you see Florida, Jack.
Wait until you see Florida.
I mean, this Quinnipiac poll, we were just talking about age.
18 to 34, Trump leads 48 to 43.
to 34, Trump leads 48 to 43.
Among Generation Xers, 55 to 34, he leads among people 35 to 49 years old.
From 50 to 64, he leads 54 to 43.
And then Biden leads with the boomers, 65 plus.
I just said, you know, in the beginning of the first segment, one of only two groups that is moving to Biden and Democrats is the senior group, 65 plus.
Everyone else except for whites with a college degree have been moving away from Democrats.
And by the way, Trump has almost 20% of the black vote in this poll in Michigan, which they had him in very low single digits in 2020.
I mean, Quinnipiac would not even measure Jack, his Black support in 2020.
It was literally N-A, or a hyphen, or an asterisk, or maybe he had 2%, 4%.
It was never like this.
People need to wake up.
And there's like this weird element of the Republican Party, where I hate to say it, or whatever you want to call them, they're not, they weren't supporting the former president in the primary, they were supporting another candidate.
We'll just say it rhymes with Lantis.
And there's some weird denial of this non-white vote shift.
It's like they don't want it or something.
They just want to be the party of white people forever.
Well, whites are shrinking.
And if you're not moving to a more diverse, younger party, you're dead.
You're a dinosaur, an electoral dinosaur.
You'll go the way of the Whigs.
So everybody who is on the right should be celebrating these numbers.
I can't imagine why anybody else wouldn't.
It's real.
Well, at the end of the day, just from a political standpoint, it's because, and I said this, I pre-taped an episode, but there's a ton of stuff you said I wanted to get into, but I pre-taped an episode with Monica Crowley that's going to be dropping I think later today, where I said, look, and Rich, you and I have said it, Yeah.
for years at this point, that when Trump talks about the economy and when he talks about the working class, the media hears working class and equates that with white people.
But that's not the fact.
That's not the case.
You know who else works in this country?
There's lots of Hispanics.
There's lots of blacks that are working class.
At the end of the day, people want to make money.
More than a lot, obviously.
You know, and so at the end of the day, people want to make money.
And they can remember that they started making money under Trump.
That's it.
And so the great irony of all of this is that all of the gains that the conservative, you know, GOP establishment told us, Khan Inc., told us that we would get if we went all in on identity politics with, you know, with Rubio and Pathway to Citizenship and the Dreamers and DACA and that's how we get the Hispanics on board and then we're going to go in for reparations and that's how we get the blacks on board and all that.
No.
No, none of that.
Donald Trump, the man who was unfairly smeared as the world's biggest racist, is actually going to end up with a more diverse voting bloc, voting cohort, electorate, than any of them could have ever dreamed of.
Without a doubt.
That autopsy after Mitt Romney lost called for basically exactly what you just said.
That never would have gotten there, Jack.
In Florida, which people will see really soon, I sent you the map.
I mean, those are locator pins that represent each person we spoke with in Florida.
And look all along the Treasure Coast.
Look all along the Gold Coast.
These are people who have no problem, many of them at this point, have no problem saying, you know, I voted for Joe Biden, but I'm voting for Donald Trump this time.
The biggest shift, yes, he's doing marginally better with whites.
The biggest shift is with non-whites.
I mean, Miami, Jack, the margin is identical to 2020, yet now Miami data's flipped to Trump.
White people didn't do that.
Working class white people are an important part of this coalition, but when you're speaking to people about these issues, all we heard from black voters who switched and are telling us they're going to vote for Donald Trump, yes, there were economic issues, but Jack, everybody was following it up with You know, in this immigration crap, they're shafting us.
That's what we heard from black voters this time.
You know, don't throw any hate my way.
I'm just taking your interview, but I'm voting for Trump, you know, and they're so used to those social pressures.
They're even worried.
They even feel like they have to preface their Answer to a pollster with something like that.
And when you really dig into what it is that is changing their minds, it's all about the money.
It's all about the economy.
But there are some things.
It's all about the money.
I want to get into that in a second.
We have a quick break coming up.
I got to throw this out there that this is a line from producer Fahs.
This is not, this is not me, but he goes, it's like chickens buying stock at KFC.
It's like chickens.
Producer Faz, come on, man.
The stuff this guy comes up with, I'm telling you, it is incredible.
We love him so much.
We love our producer Faz.
Don't we all?
Don't we all love him, folks?
But at the end of the day, it is about the money.
It's about the money.
Do you want the new normal to be the one that survives, or do you want to go back to the way America was when things were great?
We'll be back.
Human Events Daily continues.
Jack, where's Jack?
Where's Jack?
Where is he?
Jack, I want to see you.
Great job, Jack.
Thank you.
What a job you do.
You know, we have an incredible thing.
We're always talking about the fake news and the bad, but we have guys, and these are the guys who should be getting policies.
All right, Chuck, so we're back live here in Southern Florida.
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Rich, I want to add a couple of things on to what you said and then ask you another question, but I thought it was interesting that you mentioned that the two groups that are not moving towards Trump, the only two groups that are not moving towards Trump, it's college-educated whites and really the upper end of the baby boomers.
Not quite super seniors, but seniors.
And this is so interesting to me because these are, what are these groups?
You've got the most indoctrinated group in America, college-educated whites, and then you've got the people that are most cut off from the current economy at the upper end.
Those are the people that are still watching cable news.
Those are the people that are still watching MSNBC, the last cohort they have left.
Still believing what the New York Slimes puts out every day.
And then you've got, again, these people that are so psyoped, so indoctrinated.
The more college you have, the more over-educated, over-saturated, over-socialized, and over-gaslighted you are in this country.
And so it doesn't surprise me at all that these are the groups that would be cut off.
I'll throw out, though, at you, I will throw at you that that is one of the dangers, one of the really big dangers that's out there.
And President Trump, of course, not stepping in it, but many people have, is this notion on the conservative side to say, hey, you know what we should do?
We should bring back the Paul Ryan jihad against Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare.
Let's bring that back.
Rich, you and I have talked about this for a while.
What does that type of politics do to your chances in the Electoral College?
You're done.
You're done in the Rust Belt.
You're done.
Look, and again, we did recently poll Florida.
Florida obviously has an older population.
Florida is not really competitive.
I'm just going to say that before people see the numbers.
But even before it got this bad for Democrats, it got this bad under Donald Trump because he didn't wage a jihad against those programs the way Mitt Romney did when he said, you know, the 47% comment.
It's interesting too that those two groups that we were talking about, you said it and it has to be pointed out.
For people who follow me on Locals, they know we break up 65 and above into two different groups when we lay out age detail instead of age.
It's 65 to 74.
And then 75 plus, which is super seniors.
Where is that shift away from Republicans coming from?
It's really that 65 to 74 group.
The super seniors are still pretty Trumpy.
You take that away.
You talk about raising the retirement age, you know, working past 65.
I want you to work basically until you're 74 and you're ready to drop dead.
It doesn't matter once upon a time, Jack, when we could talk about this, about the budget.
It's too late for that.
These same conservatives were blowing trillions of dollars on overseas wars and tax cuts for their Bush friends during the 04 period, even before that.
They were blowing all of this money on that.
So I think you'll find, and I think those people are going to find, much to their chagrin, that there are a lot of people on the right who were once, and they're part of it, '65 to '74, they were once very open to reforming these programs, but that was before they blew all this other money on the military industrial complex and elsewhere.
So now they've lost the moral high ground to make this argument.
So once upon a time, they would say, okay, let's have a responsible financial situation.
That's gone now.
That's done.
I mean, that is completely finished.
And by the way, we ask, who do you trust more to handle or to preserve Social Security and Medicare?
Trump is the only Republican candidate, it's not just true of 24, this has always been the case, he is the only one who's ever been competitive with the Democratic opponent on that issue, Jack.
When it comes to other Republicans we would ask and test this question with, they got blown out with this question because they always, because seniors and other age groups felt that those kind of Republicans would take that away from them in a heartbeat.
But it's not like they would do it to be fiscally responsible, Jack.
This is why it's so electorally damning.
They don't believe they would reform those programs to help get our financial ship straight, to steer us straight.
They believe they would take that money and go spend it on a stupid war, go send it to Vladimir Zelensky in Ukraine or something.
I mean, that's what they think.
Really, can we be honest?
That is what they're going to do with it.
That's why they have it's like, no, no.
And Rich, Rich, this is the issue.
That's it. - Yeah.
This is what they've done is because their politics actually isn't about fiscal responsibility.
It is about cutting spending for Americans and increasing spending for foreigners.
Okay, that's spending that goes overseas.
That's the endless wars.
That's the forever wars.
You cannot have that type of politics.
That type of politics, we had it.
We had it for an entire decade plus in the United States.
It was called the Bush era.
It tried.
It failed.
It was summarily executed politically by President Trump when he took out Jeb Bush in the primaries, handedly, handedly took him out in the primaries.
This is why the American people are sick of watching the government serving the needs of foreigners, ahead of the needs of Americans.
And it's as simple as that.
So if you're someone who says, I'm a fiscal conservative, that's great.
Where do you stand on the endless war stuff?
And it's very interesting to me that these neoconservatives that push constantly, fiscal conservatism, fiscal conservatism, cut Social Security, cut Medicaid, they will never, ever talk about decreasing war spending, ever.
And voters are on to this now, Jack.
That's what they don't seem to understand.
They keep trying to turn back the page.
Byron York, hat tip to him, wrote a great article about this after Trump stomped Nikki Haley in Michigan.
There's no going back.
Even with your Democratic cohorts coming in and helping you out, you still got crushed.
In places like Oakland County.
Forget about it.
Not just Macomb.
You got crushed in Oakland County.
You lost Washtenaw, even with a bunch of Biden voters trying to help you out.
That is so telling.
They know it.
It's like the grift is over.
You're not going to pull the wool over their eyes anymore.
Yeah, let's have a conversation about raising the retirement age, making you suffer more and you sacrifice more.
And oh, by the way, send me your grandkids.
So I could send them over to go fight Vladimir Putin in a war that they can't win and we'll waste all this money on.
Any and all response to that, oh, what a Putin puppet.
It's done.
You're just, you're speaking to yourselves.
You're talking in your own little bubble.
You sound like an idiot to everybody else, and they don't trust you, and you're not going to get it back by playing those little games.
It's just not going to happen.
It's ironic too, Jack, because you'll hear people say, well, politicians aren't being honest if they tell you that we can move forward without reforming these programs.
And the average voter will tell us they're not being honest as if they're going to take that money.
And use it for writing our financial ship.
They're not.
They're going to take it and blow it on other stuff.
So pardon me, but I want my money back.
I mean, so you can't have that position currently in American politics.
You can't.
Maybe one day we'll get there, but for right now, if people listening and even you, Jack, if everyone's being honest with themselves, can you blame the voter for feeling like that?
I don't even care if it adds more to the debt.
They're going to add more to the debt from their foreign wars anyway.
They're going to add more to the debt for all their pet programs and their pet peeves and their tax cuts and their competitive advantages.
They're all willing to do it for that, but not for me to give me my money back.
You know, when I retire, you cannot blame them for having that position.
And if you do, then I think you need to take a look in the mirror.
I mean, it's really that simple.
We don't have to go over the bench and do it every day, but how dare you?
You're not roofing every day.
Not roofing every day, not working a job where you're on your feet, you're standing behind a counter, you're swinging a hammer or something.
Look, this type of work that you and I do, this isn't that kind of work.
This isn't that kind of work, all right?
Coming back, another break.
Final segment when we come back, Rich Barris.
I'm over, and I might be getting this wrong, but I'm looking over right now at the RCP polling average.
Your buddy's over at Real Clear Politics, and I'm seeing something that I don't know if I've ever seen this before in polling at all.
We're on the RCP average when I look at Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and yes, currently even Pennsylvania because of this late-breaking Fox poll that we've got.
Is Donald Trump currently up in the RCP average in every single battleground state?
I got to give you this too.
This is going to blow your mind.
There's this Esquihanna poll.
I like Jim Lee over at Esquihanna, but he's a very, very clearly, he was an outlier.
He had Biden up by, I think it was six or eight in Pennsylvania.
That old poll is still in the average.
When it drops off, it's going to be Trump plus like three or four in Pennsylvania.
Oh wow, because, because it's interesting is that his, you're right, because his margin in Pennsylvania is his lowest margins.
The PA, it's just, it's, it's, it's half a percent.
He's just half a percent in the red.
And all the other states, though, it's like five points in Arizona, five points in Georgia, 3.6 in Michigan, 5.5 North Carolina, 5.6 in Nevada, which I believe when I see it, but that is amazing to me.
There are still got to go past, by the way, still got to go through all those workers unions in Vegas, by the way.
You still got to go through a lot of stuff.
And down in Georgia, they got issues, obviously we know.
And then Wisconsin, Wisconsin, just one point.
But what's amazing to me as well is that going into this, You know, with our operative hats on, we thought that Wisconsin would be the state to target for Trump, but it's looking like Michigan actually might be the state that's breaking for Trump even more than Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
When we did the Rust Belt poll, you remember our Rust Belt poll.
When we did the Rust Belt poll twice, we've done it now, that was a shock.
I live for the Rust Belt poll.
I live for it.
I live it.
I set my clock to the Rust Belt poll.
It's my favorite poll that we do.
I really do love that project.
This year, it was very, and has been consistently like this, that Michigan appears to be the most Trumpy of those states.
Now, Wisconsin has done this to us before, where it looks like it's closer than it is.
It turns out that it's the easiest state for Trump to win.
But I don't, listen, Things never stay the same.
I always try to tell people this.
If you read some really smart Democratic people, Texerra out there wrote the Emerging Democratic Majority.
I read his substack a lot.
He's been targeting Georgia and Excuse me, Michigan a lot because of the shift that we're seeing in the polling nationally at the state level would make those states dramatically different.
So people were looking at Georgia saying, what happened?
It's shifting to the left.
How is this that Trump's polling considerably, you know, six, eight points because of the demographics.
If you get those nonwhite vote shifts that we're seeing in the polling, it does make sense that he would be leading in those states.
By more than maybe we expected.
And here's a real bomb for everybody.
Real clear, politics does not have enough polls on their average to get an average yet.
But when they do, they're going to look like the decision desk who also has Maine with the addition of the Pan-Atlantic University survey in Trump's corner.
We're going to wait for the DRI poll, which is done by Bangor Daily News.
DRI is the best pollster in Maine.
They're the only ones who had Trump winning the second congressional district, not once, but twice, when the New York Times, Emerson College, and everybody else who polled it had Biden taking the second district.
Well, Pan Atlantic had Biden taking the second district.
And now they have him losing it by 20 points and only carrying the 1st District by I think 6 or 8, which isn't enough to stave off Beautiful.
well Trump would do statewide.
So they actually have Trump up by six in Maine.
It's insane.
I know we'll see if other polls, um, also, no, I can explain that.
I can actually explain that very, very easily because, uh, I spent a lot of time in Maine.
I got family in Maine, Maine, by the way, new England in general, one of the most beautiful States in the entire union.
I would, I would pro I would go so far as to put it up as, as personally, I think it might even be the most beautiful state just in terms of places to go.
Not every, not, not in the winter, you know, I'll probably avoid it in the winter, but just in general, it's, it's absolutely gorgeous.
Yeah.
But, but Rich, here's the thing, because we only have a minute or two left, is that there's two mains, right?
Everyone thinks of like the Stephen King main and, you know, very crunchy granola main.
and that's Bangor.
That's, you know, but what else is that?
That's also your lobster, so that's your fishermen, your lobstermen that are going out on the boats every single day.
And so there's two mains, okay?
There's granola main and there's NASCAR main.
And I've said this to Tucker, we all know that Tucker lives up in Maine.
He obviously lives in granola, or excuse me, no, lives in NASCAR main because this was the, it's post-industrial, it's working class.
It actually kind of feels, in a lot of ways, some of these towns, like Sanford, feels like a Rust Belt kind of state.
It's just that coastline that has all this granola on it that kind of swings the vote over.
Yeah, and even among, you know, this was some group that...
Republicans really even couldn't do that well with the groups in the second district, like the French migrants, the French-Canadian migrants.
Which is a Catholic vote or was predominantly a Catholic vote.
And they still were really bad with them as long as the party was seen as the party of Wall Street and big business, right?
The Bush era, the Romney era kind of party.
They still didn't do very well with those groups.
But Trumpism is a totally different animal when you're looking at those voters that you were just talking about.
It's like, you're right, Jack, you have Haven and then you have Portland.
You know, and it's like Haven for people who don't know.
Some people call us cursed.
We call them Troubles, the Stephen King thing, which they turned into a show.
If you were to go to Haven, it would be like 90% for Trump, okay?
But if you're going to Portland, Susan Collins' area, then you're going to see a lot of richer, whiter, bushy-like people who frankly would vote for a Democrat over Donald Trump.
But He's tightened, in that pan-Atlantic poll, he tightened the 1st District.
He's not winning it, but he tightened it significantly, and he's winning the 2nd by such a large margin.
20 points, which is more than double what he won it by in 2020.
He's winning it by 20 points, so even the less populated 2nd District would swamp the 1st.
So it's interesting, and we've got to keep an eye on that state.
I'm telling you, Jack, we've got to keep an eye on that state.
And it is one of the most beautiful states in the Union.
I like the cold, so even when it's cold, I don't care.
