EPISODE 618: WORLD WAR ASIA - LIVE FROM JAPAN PART 1
On today’s must-see episode of Human Events Daily, Jack Posobiec joins us live from Tokyo, the host city of CPAC Japan. On a star-studded panel with former Japanese Air Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff, Toshio Tamogami, and Gordon Chang. Poso dives deep into the geopolitics surrounding Taiwan and how they will impact both Japan and the United States. From President Biden’s meeting with Xi in San Francisco to the realities of drone warfare this is a conversation you can’t afford to miss. Is t...
Ladies and gentlemen, we know Christmas is coming, but before Christmas, the gathering of patriots requires your attendance.
Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, myself, Donald Trump Jr., Steve Bannon, Roseanne Barr, Yeah, that's right.
Rob Schneider, James Lindsay, and so many more are going to be at this year's Turning Point America Fest, December 16th to 19th, 2023, Phoenix, Arizona.
You are going to be there.
Your presence is required.
Go to AmFest.com and use promo code POSO.
That's promo code POSO, AmFest.com.
Secure your tickets now.
Don't come crying to me when this thing is sold out like it does every single year.
Amfest.com promo code POSO.
This is what happens when the fourth turning meets fifth generation warfare.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
Deliver us from evil.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard to something a little bit different here on Human Events Daily.
Today we're going to bring you a very special presentation from myself and my friends all the way over in CPAC, Japan, where we're going to bring you World War Asia live from Tokyo, Japan.
Myself and a team of experts are sitting down and discussing the issues of the rise of China, what it means for the world, what it means for national security and global security, and specifically what it means for East Asia.
So we're going to walk you through this today and tomorrow, a two-part humid event special live from Tokyo, Japan.
You're going to have myself, you're going to have an entire coterie of Japanese experts, and we're also going to be joined by Gordon Chang.
Stay tuned, I think you guys are going to like that.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard.
Japan's response in a time of crisis and national security.
Under this theme, we will have the next session.
Without further ado, I'd like to introduce the panelists.
First and foremost, the former Japanese Air Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff, Toshio Tamegami.
Please welcome him with a big round of applause.
Next, CPAC board member, Newsweek columnist also over China is going to roll board on J. Chang.
Next, Next, Senior Editor of Human Events, Enable Intelligence Officer Veteran, Jacques Osserville.
- Thank you. - Another round of applause, please.
Thank you very much.
Please be seated.
Once again, I'd like to introduce the panelists one by one.
First and foremost, the former Japanese Air Self-Defense Force Chief of Staff, Tamo Bami Itoshio.
Mr. Tamogami was the 29th Chief of Staff Air Self-Defense Force and his final title was General.
After graduating from the National Defense Academy of Japan, he joined the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force and was in charge of missile defense for all of Japan.
He is the person who has the supreme knowledge and experience on Japan's defense policy, especially on the defense of airspace.
Next is Seabuck, a board member and a columnist, Gordon G. Chan.
Mr. Gordon Chan is a Seabuck board member and a columnist at Newsweek.
And his latest book, China is Going to a War, he is the author of the book.
He lived in China and Hong Kong for almost 20 years and is now active as a renowned critic on the crisis of China and North Korea, and has appeared on TV programs including Fox News as a guest on a regular basis.
Next is a senior editor of Human Events and former Naval Intelligence Officer, veteran Jack Possovic.
He is a senior editor of Human Events, a host of events daily and a turning point USA contributor.
He is a veteran Navy Intelligence Officer and a Lincoln Fellow.
He has been providing information in the areas of India and China and so on.
He has spent many years in Shanghai and speaks fluent Mandarin.
So the moderator will be Mr. Yamaoka Tetsuhide once again, following the previous session.
Please give them a big round of applause, please.
Now over to you, Mr. Yamaoka, please.
Thank you.
Let's begin.
Two weeks ago in San Francisco, Xi Jinping and Biden had a summit meeting.
Two weeks ago in San Francisco, Xi Jinping and Biden had a summit meeting.
How do you evaluate that and what can we derive as lessons and insights?
In one word.
Thank you very much.
I didn't raise my hand, so let me begin by raising my hand.
I was the only one during the introduction.
President Biden and President Xi Jinping tried to decipher their mutual gut feelings, so no conclusions were reached.
They tried to understand better what the counterpart is thinking.
President Biden wanted to understand better what next move China would take, and President Xi Jinping wanted to decipher what the U.S.
would do to the war in Ukraine.
and Palestine War.
And that was what he keenly wanted to learn.
So they tried to decipher that.
Mr Gordon Chan. - The world is in flames, and Bidenomics is a complete and total disaster.
But it can't and won't ruin my day, and you know why?
Because I start my day with a hot America-first cup of Blackout Coffee.
This coffee is 100% America.
Blackout Coffee is 100% committed to conservative values, from sourcing the beans to the roasting process, customer support, and shipping, they embody true American values.
And they accept no compromise on taste or quality.
Look, when I run my day, this show is powered and energized by Blackout Coffee, and so is all of the human events universe.
Go to blackoutcoffee.com and use promo code POSO20 for 20% off your first order this Christmas.
Guys, check out all the gear section for incredible gift ideas for the holidays while you are there.
Blackoutcoffee.com slash poso.
Be awake, not woke.
Look, you might have someone in your family, your friends, they like coffee, they want to do the flavor of the month club, they want to get involved, they want something, they're not sure what they like.
Go ahead.
Super easy.
Blackoutcoffee.com slash poso.
When you use promo code POSO20, you can sign them up for a one-year subscription.
That's coffee every single month.
It's a great gift and something that will keep on moving throughout the year.
And we're back.
Ladies and gentlemen, Human Events is worldwide.
We've come to you from all over the planet.
Today, we're coming to you from Tokyo, Japan.
Let's listen in.
Mr. Gordon Chan.
Well, first of all, thank you very much.
And I am honored to be on your panel, especially with the general and with Jack.
We don't really know what happened in San Francisco.
President Biden said that there were a couple of agreements, but significantly, Xi Jinping did not stand with him at the post summit press conference.
And also significantly, there was no joint statement.
So, you know, all we have to go on is from what we have heard from President Biden.
Last couple of days, we were told that there were 20 deliverables, in other words, 20 agreements, but we don't know what they are.
But I think there's one thing that we can understand, and that is that China wants to rule, not just dominate, but wants to rule the world.
And the United States stands for a free and open system of sovereign states, the system that has been in place since 1648.
So whatever agreements, whatever sort of that they came to in San Francisco, they're not going to last very long because the United States and China have irreconcilable agreement, disagreements, and those disagreements are going to define the relationship going forward.
So it doesn't really matter in a sense.
We know that there's going to be deep troubles ahead as China tries to take over the world.
Thank you very much, Jack.
It's wonderful to be here in Tokyo, Japan.
I'd like to thank you all for receiving us.
It's an honor for us as well to be here with Gordon, with our hosts, with the general.
It's very simple to me.
The most important thing to understand about the Joe Biden summit meeting with Xi Jinping was actually said by the White House before the summit took place.
And what was stated at that White House press conference was that there will be no economic decoupling This is incredibly significant because Joe Biden, more so than possibly any other United States elected official, is more responsible for the rise of the CCP in the world than anyone else currently serving in the United States government.
And, of course, we know that through his son, Hunter Biden, his family has become very, very financially advantageous through this relationship themselves.
And so because he has a personal stake in the rise of China, he will never do anything to stop the underwriting of Chinese business, of Chinese finance, and ultimately, the People's Liberation Army, by the United States and U.S. foreign direct investment.
Biden is a pro-China politician, and he will never stop being one.
Thank you very much on that point.
The Congress, however, however, is one after another coming up with bills that are being passed about Chinese economy to stop the Chinese economic growth or the critical raw material, including state of the art chips to stop exports. including state of the art chips to stop exports.
They're trying to do many attempts.
On the other hand, as you have pointed out, Biden And his family are completely flooded by the corruption that they are being paid by the Chinese.
What would happen to this contradiction?
Well, I would see this contradiction, of course, in terms of the public and the private tracks, in terms of Biden's rhetoric versus Biden's actions.
And I say that when you look at specifically this chip situation, this is directly tied to the status of Taiwan and their ability to operate, maybe not completely as a sovereign nation, but Independently of the People's Republic as it stands.
When Donald Trump was in office, he was making sure that the United States stood with Taiwan and the United States stood economically with Taiwan.
However, if you look at what Biden has done, and I'm very interested in, as Gordon has said, these 20 deliverables, these 20 agreements between the US and China, because we know that China has been working very strongly to build their own domestic semiconductor capacity within their country in order to offset any potential split or decoupling with Taiwan.
Of course, under Trump, those deals were all going forward with Taiwan, particularly in the semiconductor field.
However, under Biden, we've seen that China has been able to really ramp up their own domestic production of these semiconductors.
And of course, they're not just looking at dominating East Asia with this.
The ultimate plan through these semiconductors, and they're already ahead of where the United States is, is of course eventually space.
One of the ways to reconcile this contradiction that you point out is that Joe Biden is the president in a democratic society.
He knows there's so much pressure against China.
And as Jack is saying, he's doing the least that he can do as a leader of a democratic state.
So, therefore, I think that you can see that Jack is right about this, that Biden is doing the least possible.
For the U.S., under the Biden administration, I think he wants to maintain the status quo because it's most beneficial for the United States on the part of China.
If they maintain the current situation, I think China is at a disadvantage.
So, now the U.S.
is strong, so China wants to change this kind of situation.
And now, the United States under President Biden, the U.S.
has to support President Biden in a way, but at the same time, it has to expose his misdeeds.
So I think that is why a lot of controversy is happening.
Gordon, you said there was no photo taking, no joint declaration.
Under such circumstances, what about Taiwan?
Some rumors that there was a secret agreement regarding Taiwan.
What do you think about that likelihood?
Certainly, they were certainly going to discuss Taiwan.
That's at the top of Xi Jinping's mind, because Xi Jinping has staked his personal credibility and his political standing on annexing Taiwan during his rule.
And I'm sure that Xi Jinping said to Biden that he wants the US to stop arms sales, to stop diplomatic support.
And, you know, Biden may have mumbled something, but whatever Biden might have said, remember that he can't deliver because Taiwan has support throughout the American political scene, both Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservatives.
So Biden can say something, and I'm sure he probably tried to, but ultimately he can't deliver.
Well, I completely agree with Gordon here that Biden, I'm sure, will tell everyone afterwards that he stood up for Taiwan, that he stood up for the defense of the democracy of the island of Taiwan, their sovereignty as a nation.
But in terms of actually doing anything, to use his own word, deliverable, to achieve greater protection for Taiwan, he's not going to do that.
And of course, that would be actually tied back to what I was saying earlier, a potential economic either decoupling or at least a diminishment of the direct economic ties between the US and China, instead of offshoring, reshoring, or potentially looking at other opportunities for for partners in the region.
And of course, you're also not hearing anything at the same time regarding Joe Biden putting forward a stronger alliance from a military perspective with Japan, which is what he should be doing.
I don't think there was any secret agreement because President Biden has only one more year.
And I think there's very little likelihood he'd be reelected.
So under such circumstances, would Biden make any promise?
I don't think so.
And President Xi Jinping himself?
Whatever Biden says, I don't think she would believe that it's a commitment.
So as I said, I think they tried to feel out their gut feelings and nothing was decided.
One point, though, that I think is very important, as you say, this may be Joe Biden's last year in office, but there is and I know, Gordon, you've mentioned this as well.
That there is someone who was holding meetings with Xi Jinping recently in the U.S.
on the Democrat side, and this is a man by the name of Gavin Newsom.
And Gavin Newsom's second-track diplomacy with Xi Jinping directly, both in China and then back in the United States, in San Francisco, the Bay Area, I think is very important for people who consider that if Joe Biden potentially does not run again, as many people have predicted, I see.
That's insightful.
a strong likelihood that Gavin Newsom, who we saw was debating Governor Ron DeSantis last night in the United States, could potentially step up to fill that role on the Democrat side.
I think Gavin Newsom's very close relationship and very close ties with Xi Jinping must be looked at carefully.
I see that's insightful.
But in that case, U.S.
has economic ties with China, and they don't even attempt to decouple.
They only try to sustain.
So they want to maintain business relations, and if they're going to prioritize that economic ties, then what about, even if there's conflict in Taiwan, contingency in Taiwan, U.S.
will not get involved.
Maybe that could have been a deal.
Maybe not with Biden, but between Newsom and Xi Jinping.
Do you think that's a possibility?
You can't deny it, right?
Well, I certainly think that depending on who becomes the next president, Gavin Newsom would probably hand Taiwan over to Xi Jinping on a silver platter, whereas President Donald Trump would do everything to make sure that the CCP would fall if they would take that action.
There's another aspect to this, and that is that, you know, many people in Washington try to think, what would the United States do if China were to attack Taiwan?
People in Tokyo actually, well, what is Japan going to do?
But we got to remember that China's military doctrine is probably to hit the United States and Japan as it attacks Taiwan.
And that means, you know, we don't have a choice.
China is going to be driving this.
Remember, for China to successfully annex Taiwan, it's got to impose a blockade.
For that blockade to be successful, it's got to be big enough to include sovereign Japanese territory, especially the island of Yonagumi.
And so that means that Japan gets attacked, it means the United States has an obligation under our mutual defense treaty Which means that we're going to be at war, whether we like it or not.
So this decision probably is not going to be ours to make, and it's not going to be Japan's to make.
It will be China's.
On that point, General, right, Russia invades Ukraine.
President Biden, even prior to the aggression, US won't engage in Ukraine war.
He said that before.
Because if they end up fighting against Russia, there's a possibility of nuclear war.
Then what happens if China invades Taiwan?
China is armed with nuclear weapons.
So what happens if U.S.
Participates to defend Japan and Taiwan.
I think there's hardly little likelihood or even zero likelihood.
President Xi knows that well, but Russia is being criticized from all countries around the world.
So he's waiting and seeing how that would unfold.
And Russia's aggression of Ukraine.
Of course, we don't think it will be successful, but If it ends up not being successful, then Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan invasion or Japan invasion will probably not do it, will not take the action.
Well, thank you.
At the summit meeting, there was one interesting point.
Xi Jinping allegedly has made this announcement.
China in 2027 or 2035 will make an aggression against Taiwan It is being said, but there is no plan as such.
That is what Xi Jinping allegedly said in 27 or 35.
These are very specific numbers in terms of years.
So US general made a specific prediction.
So based upon that, Xi Jinping allegedly made this announcement.
Why do you think such an announcement was published?
What's your assessment?
Would you like to go first?
For this kind of announcement, there is a counterparty and I think you are trying to gauge the reaction.
It is like an ad balloon, if you like.
So you say 27 or 2035, making an aggression at this point in time.
I think this is completely unpredictable.
Nothing is known.
So China invading Taiwan, of course they have to make some military preparation.
Unless they make preparation, you cannot make invasion.
So Russia going into Ukraine, I think they took five months and a half.
They had to mobilize all the forces.
And if China wants to invade Taiwan, it will take more time, because there is a scene between more than half a year, considering China's readiness.
So at this point in time, within half a year, China Making an aggression against Taiwan or Japan is very unlikely at this point in time.
But when do they do that?
It's just anyone's guess.
Gordon, in your new book, China is preparing for war.
You wrote that.
Based upon that assumption, can you make a comment?
Xi Jinping can't stop talking about war, and we know that his country is engaged in the fastest military build-up since the Second World War.
It's trying to sanction-proof itself.
It's stockpiling grain and other commodities.
It's supporting other bad actors like Russia and Iran in their war efforts.
It's surveying the United States for nuclear weapon strikes.
And it's mobilizing China's civilians for war.
I mean, we don't know dates, as the General talked about, but the point is we know that they're getting ready to do this, which means that the United States, Japan, Philippines, our friends and allies in the region, have got to assume that we could be at war at any time, because we talk about Taiwan, but right now at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, China's engaged in extremely belligerent activities, the type that can lead to war.
We know that China is ignoring warnings from our State Department, from President Biden, about the Philippines.
We know all sorts of things that are going on, and any single incident can spiral downward into conflict.
So, you know, let's talk about 2025 or 2035, but let's remember that it can happen at any time.
Well, Jack, according to some, China in Fujian province, they are now building a large military hospital, and also there are some other military-related infrastructure being built.
They have initiated construction work already, according to some reports.
So such a preparation for war by China, what's your assessment, please?
China is working very closely with Russia in terms of understanding how the Russian intelligence and Chinese intelligence are learning so much from the on-the-ground conflict in Ukraine right now.
This conflict that they're using, while certainly would be quite different in terms of, you know, one is ground, one is maritime, from Ukraine to Taiwan, but there are a lot of lessons learned that China is taking from the Ukraine conflict, and there have even been some reports that Chinese military officers are working with Russian military officers, potentially, maybe not on the ground in Ukraine, but very close to the front lines where this battle is being conducted.
And so because of this, they're learning not only in terms of the medical needs for the hospital staffing that they're going to need, Russia operating mobile hospital units throughout Ukraine, throughout the front line.
And in addition, they're learning new targeting techniques which have been coming to bear, and then seeing how those targeting techniques using drone warfare, in addition to precision-guided missile bombing, will be used in a maritime conflict.
That being said, possibly the most dangerous and the most risky new form of warfare that we've seen coming out of the Ukraine conflict is the utilization of these Russian and Iranian-built drones, and specifically the kamikaze drones and drone swarms. and specifically the kamikaze drones and drone swarms.
So the ability of these drones to target a strike vehicle, to select their target, to travel to the target, have a very cheaply produced, very easily made vehicle, We've also received reports that China may have been learning how to build these drones as well.
And the real danger there is that these drones would be devastating specifically to surface fleets and potentially even aircraft carriers.
Because the United States, and including the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force, our air defense capability is predicted on planes and missiles.
these drone swarms would have the ability to penetrate those defenses.
-Preporation for war.
What level do you call it, preparation for war?
In the end, do you have the tactics to motivate and mobilize the troops?
And do you do training and enter into the verification phase?
If you don't do that, you can't invade.
I'm mad about that country.
Let's do war tomorrow.
You can't do that.
So in an organized manner, even if they talk about invasion into Taiwan, there has to be organized preparation or else it's not possible.
So the final military preparation activity, is it launched or not, that would enable them to invade.
They are unprepared, completely unprepared in that sense by that yardstick, because totally There has to be logistics and weapons development and hospitals.
Yes, you could call that preparation, but that's just general training for general peacetime military forces.
It's not preparation for war.
So China is in no way engaged in preparation for war.
Jack just pointed out that drones with AI will be used for the future warfare, that's the assumption.
And what about the readiness of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces?
Well, drones will be mobilized in a great number.
So they're making all sorts of preparation.
They're getting ready.
And of course, not just defending is not enough.
We have to strike back if we are attacked.
So such an attacker structure is being prepared by self-defensive forces.
But Japan has had its own history, so we have to prepare so much.
There are three strategic defence documents that were published last year.
There is a defence development plan and there is a third annex to this document.
And in the past, there was a national defence programme that was made back in 2018.
Thank you.
And the contents is pretty much the same.
So Japan, if it wants to double self-defense forces, are they really serious?
I have a big question mark looming over that.
The structure of self-defense forces has to be strengthened.
They say things like they cannot hire people and so on.
Maybe they can improve the treatment so that they can find recruitment much, much easier.
Thank you.
Preparations for war.
We heard from the experts, the professionals, from the general.
We heard that currently they are unprepared for invasion into Taiwan.
But Gordon said, we shouldn't just think about Taiwan, but the Philippines and Japan, and they are becoming quite militant, China.
But at any rate, one thing that could be said, Xi Jinping, Is he publicly says that he would annex Taiwan.
So at the same time, what is the time limit?
Of course, that kind of announcement is accompanied by a time limit that considered.
Currently, there are at least two big wars.
One is Ukraine versus Russia in Europe, and the other one was the recently commenced Middle Eastern war between Israel and Hamas.
And all of the attention is towards those two wars.
So, in this Far East region, People have been distracted from the Far East.
No one's now interested.
Would Xi Jinping consider this as an opportunity?
And during people's attention is devoted to those two wars, and while this mumbling President Biden is still into power, he has to do something decisive.
Would he think so?
But even then, thinking about the Chinese economic growth being lackluster, they can't prepare for war, so he has to hesitate?
No choice but to hesitate?
How do you judge that, Gordon?
Well, I agree with the general that China's not prepared to go to war, and the Chinese military certainly isn't, because we've seen the purges at the top levels of the military, especially in the rocket force, where 11 generals this summer disappeared.
And indeed, you know, China doesn't have a defense minister right now.
The old one was last seen in public on August 29th.
He was formally sacked on October 24th.
And Xi Jinping has not been able to replace him, which means there's political turmoil in the civilian side of the Communist Party as well.
But to say all this doesn't mean that China is not going to war.
You can go to war in many ways, and sometimes being unprepared.
So for instance, as you point out, there are so many instances right now where you have the Philippines, you can have all sorts of intercepts in the global commons, in the air and on the sea.
If something goes wrong in one of those, I don't think the Chinese political system can act reasonably right now because only the most hostile answers would be considered to be acceptable in Beijing, which means that China could very well stumble into war.
And we've got to remember the other thing is that Xi Jinping himself He's got domestic incentives to go to war.
You mentioned the economy.
Yeah, China's economy is terrible right now, probably not growing, and it's certainly not producing the output necessary to service its debt.
But that means that Xi Jinping has an incentive to go to war to rally the Chinese people.
Chinese people right now are pretty unhappy about a lot of things.
But the one thing he can do is to raise and stoke ugly nationalism.
And he's been doing that for years.
He could ramp that up.
He could go after Japan, for instance.
And so we've got to be concerned that any little incident can become the one that triggers war.
You know, Xi Jinping is very, very crafty.
I mean, he has green-lighted the invasion of Ukraine.
He's helped Iran with regard to attack on Israel.
China and Russia have been fueling insurgencies in North Africa that look like wars.
Xi Jinping may decide For reasons which may seem ridiculous or just completely unreasonable, he can nonetheless go to war because it makes sense for him domestically.
He's got the domestic incentives to be reckless and to actually go to war when we think he wouldn't.
Absolutely.
Well, we may have a rational thinking, but they Don't necessarily make a judgment based upon rational thinking.
But if it's the counterpart country is very weak, then you can do all sorts of things against that country.
But Taiwan has so much war potential.
So without making any preparations, you cannot just casually start a war against Taiwan.
Because if it doesn't go well, Xi Jinping will lose power.
So unless he's 100% sure he will be successful, I don't think he's going to go to the war.
So maybe he will try to approach Taiwan here and there, but a fully-fledged war, so much preparation is necessary, including maritime blockage and cyberattacks and so on.
Those are not enough.
Is that what you mean?
Yes.
That's my view.
What if, then, what if the situation would Make China decide to invade.
Then you talked about maritime blockade.
If maritime blockade is conducted, then in order to make that successful, Okinawa and Sakushima Islands included would have to be blockaded, right?
And that automatically means that Japan will have to be entangled and the United States will get involved.
Say we fall into such circumstances, one possibility would be Xi Jinping, DPRK, Russia.
Xi Jinping takes some kind of action to be on China's side, and then the Self-Defense Force would have three enemies on three sides.
So that would be very risky.
And CPP requests Russia and DPRK and they would respond.
So what's the level of likelihood?
And if they do that, how would China propose?
What would keep pro quo try to persuade DPRK and Russia Gordon?
Yeah.
One of the things we've got to understand is that in the context of the world right now, global order is fast eroding.
And so things that we believe can't happen or unlikely to happen could very well happen.
And we are seeing this, for instance, with a number of disagreements around the world could spiral into war.
So, for instance, this very moment Venezuela is thinking of invading its neighbor, Guyana.
which is just ridiculous thinking when you think about it.
But the point is that with the world as it is, that anything can happen.
And so, yes, China is certainly going to lean on Pyongyang to either invade South Korea or to launch missiles at Japan.
We know that this North Korean regime views Japan as its enemy.
And this enemy is, in North Korean terms, there's anger and there is disagreement and all sorts of stuff.
But also the Russians, they want to grab more Japanese islands in the north, in the Kurils.
So clearly there could be this front you talk about, and that means, you know, we can talk about probabilities, but the point is Japan needs to be prepared, and the General has been in the forefront of getting Japan to be prepared for the unlikely.
I would, if I can add, we've talked a lot about China's preparation, we've talked about how Japan and I certainly hope, is able to prepare and expand its level of preparation.
Thirdly, though, I have to say, as a veteran of the United States Navy, and particularly the United States Seventh Fleet, home ported here in Japan, that we don't know at this point if the United States Navy is prepared to respond to a scenario like Taiwan that we don't know at this point if the United States Navy is prepared to respond to a scenario like Taiwan or even any of these smaller spiraling Has not been focused on seamanship.
It has not been focused on war fighting.
It has not been focused on war games.
It's been focused on social programming.
It's been focused on gender identity crises, various LGBT agendas.
You're more than likely to find a sailor these days focused on these things rather than any of the issues that we've discussed today.
And I saw this When I was serving in the Navy, when I was serving here in the 7th Fleet, and it's only gotten far, far worse.
The sailors and the... Number one, the mishaps that you have seen are increasing.
We're increasing at sea, we're increasing at air, even in port we have mishaps where our ships are burning down at the pier.
The United States Navy, unfortunately, I'm sad to say, is not in a state of preparation, and if Xi Jinping were to take advantage of it, he would be at his best timing.
Well, I almost regret that I asked this question, hearing the answer.
So currently, the U.S.
military or forces are in this kind of state of affairs.
I understood that.
At the policy level now, Looking at the policies in 1945 and since then, the U.S.
has maintained a policy of Japan not having independent defensive forces in a way, so Japanese self-defense forces are complementary forces to the U.S.
forces, so Japanese self-defense forces are not fully-fledged forces.
As a result, defense and U.S.
policies that are unique to Japan have been impossible.
That is because Japan has been like a subsidiary to the U.S.
So, self-resilient.
So, under such a difficult situation, according to Jack, do you think there will be a possibility of Japan being able to change such a policy?
Do you think the U.S. will allow that?
The U.S. policy has remained unchanged and will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
SDF.
When it comes to U.S.
fighters, U.S.
missile, U.S.
EG system, they use that hardware assets.
But half of weapons capability is software, which is intangible.
You can't see the inside.
So we can't elucidate what's ongoing in the software.
United States would develop weapons F-35.
They develop F-35 fighter plane, and there is basic software.
But when it is graded up second to third version, then for the first time, they would export to Japan.
That's not only United States.
That's the general practice around the world in terms of weapons export, because they don't want to be defeated by foreign enemies.
So the fighter planes and missile systems That we import is encoded in the US style data link.
The fighter planes on the air and missile on land and ship on the plane.
We used to use telephone lines.
I'm going west.
I'm going east.
Telephone lines used to be used.
You don't have to talk anymore because data link is there.
You know what your friends and allies are doing because it's encoded in the U.S.
style.
The encryption is the U.S.
style and the data is linked based upon the U.S.
style format encryption.
So if the U.S.
Forces would support, then SDF is quite robust.
But without US cooperation, then we would not be able to defend as an organization.
That's the positioning of the SDF.
And we think that this will continue if America wants to control Japan.
So, if we want to be resilient, we have to come up with domestic fighter planes and domestic missiles on our own, domestic manufacturing.
But if we try to manufacture, there would be a lot of criticism from the United States, Italy, UK.
The new fighter plane will be done with collaboration with these countries through hard thinking.
Because if it's UK and Italy, US can't complain.
They may be able to complain if it's just Japan 100%.
But eventually, it was Prime Minister Nakasone who abandoned that plan.
We have three fighters, three types.
Two are U.S.
licensed, manufactured in Japan.
One fighter model can be domestic.
So we used to do the negotiations with the U.S.
forces, but Ron Yasu, Reagan, and Nakasone did an agreement.
So he was persuaded to do joint development rather than 100% Japan.
So we cried at that moment because we tried so hard, 40 years, to do domestic production.
So I really was shocked about that Prime Minister's judgment.
And that continues today.
Well, thank you very much.
How can you follow that?
No, let's-- ah.
I know...
So that is the current, that is the policy, historical policy.
This is historical fact.
Then the situation or the times we live in have changed.
So do you think that the U.S.
has an intention to change the current policy?
I think during the Trump administration, I think attention was being paid.
Do you think when the next President Trump administration is born, do you think there is a likelihood that the U.S.
policy will change?
There's a consistency to U.S.
policy in the region, and of course it's affected by who's ever in the Oval Office at the time, but Japan and the United States have formed a strong bond.
And we Americans are very fortunate to have Japan as our cornerstone ally, because it is our most important ally in the region.
And, you know, as I mentioned, policies will differ as we see different administrations.
But there is a certain consistency to America's attempts to strengthen the region.
And really one of the most important things right now we're seeing, and this is not, we're seeing it in the Biden administration, but this is the result of long held US policy going back many administrations.
We're seeing Japan and South Korea work together, really for the first time.
And that's important because it bolsters the defense of both countries.
You know, the United States is an ally of Japan, South Korea is an ally of Japan, but South Korea and Japan are not allies.
And they're still not, and they probably won't be for some time, but they are working very closely together.
And in the United States, you hear a term called jerokas.
which is Japan, ROK, South Korea, and the U.S.
And that is forming a durable partnership.
It can be better.
Biden can be doing more, as Jack has pointed out.
But at least we're moving in the right direction.
As I said, we Americans are very fortunate to have Japanese friends at our side.
Okay, thank you.
I would say that in order to maintain the balance of power in East Asia, of course, the United States, given the status of our Seventh Fleet as it stands, PACOM in general, Indo-PACOM now, we need the support Indo-PACOM now, we need the support of the strongest allied military in Asia, and of course, that is Japan.
As far as the policy question, I agree with Gordon that in Washington D.C.
we have this organization or unofficial organization called The Blob.
And The Blob sort of controls foreign policy and the State Department.
And they don't like Donald Trump very much and his ideas.
And so I'll just say this, that in 2025, when Donald Trump returns to the White House, I will personally discuss the status of the Japanese Self-Defense Force with him and with his administration and explain that in order to prevent any invasion of Taiwan, we must allow for the expansion and the increase of the Japanese military.
And we will invite the general to get his entire list of everything that needs to be included.
I'm so happy that we are putting this event together, CPAC.
Well, Jack, please, by all means, it's almost time to wrap up, so I have one final question.
General Atamogami, so cutting the base of Okinawa F-15 fighter jet, The pilots and family members used to live in or near the base, and now withdrawal has been made.
And from the Alaska base, on a rotational basis, the latest fighter jets are now coming.
On a rotational basis, such a change has been made.
Do you think that this will affect Japanese defense?
What sort of implications will it have on Japan's defense?
And one question is that from the viewpoint of the US forces, probably this is something that I read in a US newspaper, being there is dangerous.
Being there in itself can be dangerous because China will make its first attack and then if the US forces are neutralized, then it's not going to be effective anymore.
So rather than having a permanent presence there, having another location where you can fly immediately on a rotation basis, it makes more military, militaristic sense.
Is that the thinking as to why permanent presence has been removed from Japan?
What's your expert view?
I think it's a lie.
It's false.
From the U.S.
military or forces aside, I think they find public finance very tight.
And they don't want to say that, or they don't want to say that the deterrence will be diminished and so on.
So I think it's just for the optics.
So I think if there is a permanent presence and if the enemy comes, so be it.
That will be the largest deterrence, really.
So if you strike, you can hit us, I can strike back.
That's a deterrence.
Or pay double the payback and so on if an invasion is made by China.
The U.S.
Thank you very much.
to help or rescue us, they can be deterrence.
It's very unlikely.
Maybe like Ukraine, they may provide weapons, but against China, which is armed up with nuclear weapons, facing a China fairly squarely, engaged in a battle or war is very unlikely in my view. - Thank you very much.
Deterrence will decline, right? - Well, I agree actually.
I think the Biden administration will, and they lie to the American people, they lie to the Japanese people, So at least in that way, they treat us the same.
But it's very true that under this president, the United States economy has been in decline.
Inflation is very high in the United States.
We've seen a decline in military spending as well.
And of course, we're seeing this in if you go back to The Cold War.
The way the United States Navy used to measure the readiness of the Russian Navy, or at that time the Soviet Navy, we would say, how much time do you spend at sea?
How much time do you actually spend deployed?
Our Navy, if you look in terms of days at sea, our ships have been staying closer and closer to home more than ever, really in the last 15 years, and very much ramped up under the Biden administration.
It's very clear there is a financial element to this and, of course, in order for American deterrence to be at its previous state of readiness, you're going to need an America with a strong economy.
This, of course, will be greatly benefited from our relationship with Japan and also potentially decoupling with China.
If there's fiscal reason in the United States, then?
All the more so, that would be the basis to encourage Japanese self-resiliency, would it not?
Of course.
No argument.
Go ahead.
Yeah, I agree with Jack that the U.S. economy is a very economy needs to be stronger.
It was stronger in the previous administration, and if President Trump were re-elected, which I agree he will be, the U.S.
economy will regain that strength.
But remember, this is a relative issue, and right now the Chinese economy is not growing at the 5.2% pace.
that they claim for the first three quarters of this year, it's probably growing, if it's growing at all, at 1%, maybe zero, probably contracting.
So, we're talking about an economy in China that is at a distressed state, especially distressed.
Also, it can't, whatever rate it's growing, it can't produce enough output to service China's enormous debts.
So really what we've got is a situation in China where we have to look at the comparison.
And in comparison, Japan and the United States are doing very well.
The United States, you know, with regard to Taiwan, there's a lot of people that have different issues about what we would do.
But when it comes to a treaty obligation, the United States is clear.
We will defend our treaty allies.
And Japan is our treaty ally in Asia.
There's no question about that.
Last words.
To maintain the U.S.-Japan relationship and continue deterrence is very important to prevent war, but what if war happens?
U.S.
won't come to help.
We will be in Ukraine's position.
So Japan has to strengthen our military forces.
We have to be ready to fight if there is war.
That has to be the capability of the SDF.
You don't know what will happen tomorrow in this world.
We have to be well prepared.
Thank you so much.
Now it is about time to conclude the session.
Did you have a good time?
Well, this kind of conversation, we have had all sorts of discussions today.
We shouldn't just keep it as a panel discussion.
This is a starting point.
To the next Japan-U.S.
relations, no longer Prime Minister Abe, Trump may come back, but no matter what, Japan-U.S.
relations are very important.
So for new Japan-U.S.
relations and to carve out a new future for Japan, I'd like to keep making efforts.
Another big round of applause for the panelists.
Thank you so much.
Thank you very much.
That concludes part one of World War Asia, live from Tokyo, Japan.
Come back tomorrow for Day 2, where the stakes get even higher.
