EPISODE 573: THE CHURN - HOW WILL RFK JR. IMPACT TRUMP IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
On today’s must-see episode of Human Events Daily, Jack Posobiec breaks down Day 1 of the sham trial levied by AG Letitia James against President Trump in New York. Poso is joined by The People’s Pundit himself, Rich Baris for an elevated discussion about RFK Jr. and the impact he will have on the Presidential Election after the news that he will be running as an independent. Will this help or hurt the MAGA movement? Jack is also joined by Retired Lt. Col Tony Shaffer for a candid conversatio...
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We are in a fifth generational conflict.
A commentator, international social media sensation, and former Navy intelligence veteran.
This is Human Events with your host, Jack Posobiec.
Deliver us from evil!
It's a disgraceful trial.
Put forward by an attorney general who's corrupt.
We have murders going all over the city, all over the state, at a record level.
It's an epidemic.
And they waste their time on this with banks that were very happy.
They got all their money back.
They weren't defrauded.
I've been defrauded.
With a judge that ruled that a building, that a property is worth $18 billion, $18 million.
When, in fact, it's worth over a billion, probably a billion and a half, it may be worth anything.
But many properties which I've sold are worth much more than were listed in the financial statements.
By double and triple.
What do you have to do?
And we're wasting our time on this trial.
With a Democrat judge from the clubhouses, it's a disgrace.
They ought to look for the murderers and the killers that are all over New York, killing people.
And the violent crime that's being committed in our city and our state is disgraceful, and we're going to be here for months with a judge that already made up his mind.
It's ridiculous.
He's a Democrat judge, he's an operative, and it's ridiculous.
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome aboard today's edition of Human Events Daily with Jack Posobiec live here in Washington, D.C.
Today is October 2, 2023.
I know, Dominic, you just saw President Trump there inside the courthouse at the New York County Courthouse there facing off in his civil trial against Letitia James.
This is that same trial where you saw the judge late last week
Uh, put up, and really just devalue the Mar-a-Lago property at $18 million, basically already ruling that, uh, effectively already ruling, right, this biased Libtar judge effectively already ruling that Trump has committed fraud, even though, of course, we already know that the banks didn't find any fraud, everything was paid back in full, that there was no fraud to be found.
I want to play though and I want to go to a different story and we're gonna be we're gonna be keeping an eye on on that but just just real quick on on Trump.
It's rare when he's that angry.
When you see that look can we can we show his face again guys just just pull it up there on the side.
When he's when he's speaking after the after his courtroom appearance when he came out and spoke to the crowd.
I mean his it's he has this this look in his eyes where he's so angry and you can see it being forced to sit there with everything else that's going on in this country when everything else that's on the line with the fate of our very nation itself on the line and you're forcing him to sit in a courtroom.
Giving full help to Joe Biden in the middle of a race?
I mean, just, you look at, and for the radio audience, you know, guys, you've got to see Trump here.
This is rare for him.
He is not happy.
He's extremely unhappy.
But there's something else that's going on in this race, because after the show ended on Friday, there was a huge piece of news that was a major shake-up in this race.
We already knew that Trump was facing charges, but now there's a new shake-up.
On Friday I told you that we were entering what I call the churn.
The churn is a time when there are tectonic shifts going on.
It is a time when alliances are shifting.
When everything is in flux.
The energy itself is shifting.
And then all of a sudden what happened?
RFK announced that he's going to run as an independent.
That means no primary, straight to the general election.
And if you don't think that RFK is going to play a role in taking independent votes and moderate votes away from Trump, then you need to go back to the drawing board and understand it's math, folks.
It's as simple as that.
In the American political system, how many times do I have to say it?
In the American political system, it is not the quality of your votes that matters, it is the quantity.
Trump only was prevented from going into the White House by 42,000 votes in three states.
Under a percent in three of these states.
Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin.
Now you put a guy like RFK on the ballot and guess what?
Those margins are going to be harder to get because now the bucket is going to be emptier when you go to fill it up.
RFK is going to play a huge role here and what Trump should do Cut a deal.
Make him an offer.
Do you want HHS?
Send RFK after Anthony Fauci.
Light him up against Big Pharma, the vaccine manufacturers.
This should be RFK's goal.
I think it's what he wants.
I think he's the perfect man for the job.
And I think that Donald Trump is the man who should hire him for that job and give him carte blanche to go after these people.
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Alright, Jack Posobiec here, back live, Human Events Daily.
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I want to bring in our next guest now, Rich Barris.
Rich, now the news broke Friday after the show, after the program Human Events ended, that RFK, and this had been something that a lot of people were presaging, thinking that, you know, it might happen.
They were teasing it out.
Now it's coming.
RFK Jr.
Has stated that he will be getting into the race as an independent.
He's he's teased it but we basically know what it is.
You were on Tim Cash that very night and I heard you making the same comment that about Ross Perot.
Now we've got this Zogby poll out this morning showing that oh look look at this it's exactly what Richard Barris said that he's polling identically that 19% that Ross Perot famously took in the 1992 election which swung the election for Bill Clinton.
Everybody talks about the blue wall.
Everybody talks about all these things that Clinton did.
Clinton's achievements.
Clinton never got over 50 percent.
He got 42 percent in that election and it was because Ross 42, 43, right?
And it's because Ross Perot got 19% and then and it because he dug away at Republicans in so many of those states that Clinton was able to come in in the battlegrounds and then have a plurality and win.
And I said that that's exactly how RFK would play out.
Then you said it on Timcast.
Now Zogby's out this morning.
Walk us through a little bit.
What do you see as the role of RFK in this race?
We have, Jack, and we will have even more later.
I'm sure others will poll it.
Conflicting data.
I want people to focus on a few things.
One is the impact of this on the Rust Belt.
What impact RFK will have.
Because his strength is not the Northeast, like everybody thinks.
He's a candidate that has not been where he has polled well, even against Biden in a Democratic nomination.
He was getting votes from people who are going to vote, maybe feel a little orphaned, but they're not Kennedy Democrats.
That's not who he has been winning.
He's been winning the independent vote.
The Democrat, solid Democrat vote is behind Joe Biden.
So this is something I want to explain to people.
In 2016, there were similarities we were seeing with today, which is RFK has a certain vote.
If he doesn't get the nomination, huge shares of them said that they would vote for Donald Trump if RFK was not the Democratic nominee.
If you're Trump, you wanted those voters.
You needed Some of those voters in certain places like Michigan and elsewhere.
And that is what threw Michigan to Donald Trump.
Maybe not Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, but without a doubt, the crossover vote from Bernie's vote that went to Trump in the general is how Trump carried Michigan by 10,000 votes.
That is plain as day.
And also, it's really simple, Jack, you know, the bird's eye view here.
There are two outsiders in the race.
That you have to look at elections like lanes, right?
And there's already Donald Trump in the race against Joe Biden, and Biden is the insider.
You throw another outsider in there, and that's how insiders win.
There's not that much, there's not enough outside votes.
Two anti-establishment candidates, two viable anti-establishment candidates sitting in the same lane.
What you'll have is a split in that anti-establishment vote that otherwise could have come together.
We saw this in the Bernie bro to Trump supporter pipeline in 2016 that you're talking about here.
If you've got somebody else who's acting essentially as a sponge for all of that support that's sitting in those races.
And by the way, there's a reason the Democrats haven't said a single word about blocking RFK since the minute this news drop.
You notice all of a sudden all the attacks on RFK have disappeared since he said that he wants to come in as an independent.
Nobody's calling for him to be suspended anymore.
Nobody's calling for him to be taken down.
Nobody's calling for him to be censored.
No.
All of a sudden, you are going to see what, and the neocon donors, they're salivating about this.
Trust me.
And ballot access is a hard thing to get.
People don't understand how hard ballot access actually is to achieve in 50 out of 50 states.
But I guarantee you, you will see you in a party, establishment, law firms, and activists getting involved, making sure even behind the scenes on the RFK campaign to try to make him get onto the ballot in all of these states because I'm telling you right now, RFK will operate like Ross Perot, where he's picking up that anti-establishment vote.
People who may have considered Trump, but if they're given an alternative because they don't want to vote for Biden, and if they're given an alternative that they view as potentially viable, that is not Trump or Biden, they'll go for RFK.
But those votes- Jack, he's a populist too.
How critical- exactly, he's a populist left candidate.
He's a populist.
Rich, how critical is this voting block for Trump to win over?
Especially when we're talking about the Rust Belt, because quite frankly, that's the only, that is the key battleground of the country.
That's it.
I mean, that's what I was going to say.
What we're really, what is really in question here is how this is going to play out in the Rust Belt, because Trump needs, if he gets Arizona and Georgia, he's going to need at least Wisconsin, but because he is Donald Trump, he plays in Pennsylvania.
He plays in Michigan.
Very critical.
And aside from RFK being a populist, and again, folks, I mean, we're going to poll it and I'll let the data speak for itself.
I'm just telling you what I've seen in the primary polling.
And then we have been uniquely asking people from the primary to the general about their voting behavior and their preferences.
And there are votes there that play out, especially in the Rust Belt, that Donald Trump needed in a close race in Wisconsin.
He needed 30 percent of RFK's disaffected vote.
In a close race in Michigan, he needs that 30% disaffected vote.
With RFK on that ballot, he's not going to get it.
And then there's the importance of the hive mind, Jack, right?
Aside from them both being populist.
We talk about this a lot on the show, and I don't think people, you know, judging by the reaction to this, I don't think people understand the hive mind, what we're talking about.
Talk about Democrats, like the hive mind.
What is his plan?
According to Mediaite, and the campaign has not denied it, his plan is to attack the DNC.
They're going to run ads attacking the DNC.
He already had a problem branching out into Democrats and traditional Democrat demographics.
His problem was not the moderate independent.
That was not the issue for him.
His issue was that he couldn't break into young people.
He couldn't break into certain non-white voters.
He couldn't break into Registered and self-ID Democrats.
That was his issue.
And so when he starts attacking the DNC, it's a hive mind.
They're all going to further ostracize him.
He will be seen as someone, whether it's true or not, they'll paint him as someone who's trying to subvert Joe Biden, subvert the Democrats' chance, help Donald Trump win this election.
And then that will turn all of those Democrats solidly Behind Joe Biden.
They will move solidly behind Joe Biden.
The same way that Trumpers... Or Newsom!
Or whoever the candidate is.
It doesn't matter who the candidate is.
And by the way, it's not just about the solidity of the hive mind, but you're 100% correct on that.
It's also about the ballot machine that they have built for the Democrat Party.
That ballot machine is only going for one candidate.
They're not going to go for somebody else, alright?
So if you put Newsom there, it'll be Newsom.
If you put Biden there, it'll be Biden.
Kamala Harris, if you put the, what's her name, this Maryland abortionist that is now going to be a senator from California, you could put her there!
They'll make her the candidate.
The ballots will go to whatever the name is.
They're probably already printed.
You just put a little sticker on top of them.
That's not the point.
The point is because this race takes place on the margins.
Remember, 80,000 votes in 2016 is Hillary's president.
42,000 votes in 2020.
Let's say ballots, right?
I'll say ballots.
42,000 ballots in 2020 go the other way, right?
Regardless of how they got there.
Go the other way, and Donald Trump is your president for the second term.
This is how they've done this.
And so when you're talking about these numbers nationwide, when you're talking about these numbers in certain areas of the country, the margins are so slim.
And they'll say, oh, well, look, he only took 2% in the Zogby poll.
He only took 2%.
That's all you need!
All you needed was 2%.
Rich, it's like that South Park episode, man.
How do I reach these kids?
Jack, we're talking about three states that were like two-tenths of a percentage point.
How do I reach these kids?
Yeah, this is how elections are decided despite the national numbers.
You know, Biden was way ahead nationally in the Electoral College.
That was not the case.
This was two-tenths in Wisconsin.
This was 12,000 votes in this state, 8,000 votes or 10,000 votes in that state.
That's how this works.
Margins are everything.
The 30 plus percent that told us that I will vote for RFK in the primary, or at least I support RFK for the Democratic nomination, but if he doesn't get it, I'm going to vote for Donald Trump.
That was a key vote, and that's why it was smart for Trump to say nice things about him.
Don't go overtly and support him, but you don't want to piss his supporters.
You're basically starting to cultivate a relationship with soon-to-be disaffected voters, so they have a place to land when their guy gets shafted, which is what happened.
Uh, him doing this now puts him on the ballot.
Maybe not all of them will stay with RFK, and they'll say, look, it's either gonna be Trump or Biden, so I will go with Trump.
But maybe, Jack, that falls from 33 to 15.
And on the margins, that sucks.
Yeah!
This is the margins, and it's the margin of victory versus the margin of fraud, as we've been talking about for so long here on Human Events Daily.
Stay tuned, we're gonna come back with Richard Barris handicapping this new, and it's an absolute game change, right?
It's an absolute game change in the 2024 election, and if anyone isn't telling you that, then they're not telling you the truth.
Today, you know, you talk about influencers.
These are influencers.
Alright, Jack Poselbeck, we're back here, Human Events Daily.
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All right, I want to play this clip now that we have of RFK actually talking about, well, this very dynamic here in the race.
Let's go ahead, guys.
Yeah, and then the other thing is that I take more votes from President Trump than I do from President Biden.
Right, so why would that help him?
Yeah, it's not helping him.
Yeah.
So Rich, there's RFK himself admitting it.
He's stating, based obviously on the polling that he's seen internally from his own operation, that he takes more votes from Trump than he does from Biden.
And I've seen some of these other polls out there, they're saying, what about the leaners and this?
No, no, we're talking about the gross number.
People want to play these little games about this bucket and this bucket.
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter.
What matters is how many ballots you get into the ballot box.
That is what America has turned into.
This country will be decided, and it's a series of boxes, right?
The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox.
The ballot box, the drop box, and the mailbox.
I don't know how many times I have to say it.
Rich, do you think RFK is lying, or do you think he knows what he's talking about?
No, I think he had this done.
Zogby did this for him.
He's been polling for him.
So Zogby also is firmly now outside of the Democratic establishment.
He ran afoul of them in 2004 during the Bush v. Kerry race.
They're no fans of Zogby, let me tell you.
It's like how some of the Republican establishment feel about me, right?
So Zogby has no reason to make this look better for Trump.
As opposed to others, which I think is a nice way I'm trying to say something.
And by the way, the other conflicting information that we have, forget about the leaners, Jack.
I mean, we're talking about a small share of the vote that is truly persuadable.
And of those truly persuadable voters, Trump loses more than Biden does with RFK and the race.
Even in those that look better than the Zogby poll for Trump, If you look into the Zogby, and I would love for them to release more of the information, all of these pollsters, it would be nice if you put out your crosstabs like everyone else is expected to do.
But in the memo, what it says is that he does pull some non-white from Biden, but it's not enough to counter how much RFK is pulling of the white vote from Trump.
Again, back to the Rust Belt.
Folks, what share of the electorate in Michigan is white?
80 plus percent in these states.
You lose a few points from the white vote, and it makes an enormous difference in the statewide, in the statewide totals.
Same thing, ditto for Pennsylvania, ditto for Wisconsin, which actually has more Asians than the other two states.
So and Biden's taking none of that from, I mean, excuse me, RFK is taking none of the Asian other vote from Joe Biden.
So it's critical when we're talking about the Rust Belt.
And if you know again, well, we're gonna pull this folks and when it comes to this stuff, I Believe myself and my own work more than everybody else and we'll also put West in on you know on that on that questionnaire as well because we'll do it both ways with and without West but You know At this point I wouldn't be stunned if If West takes, obviously, some from Biden, but RFK takes slightly more from Trump.
I mean, we'll find out, Jack, but white is white.
Demographics are demographics.
The Rust Belt is a very unique set of demographics in the country where Republicans do very well, obviously, with the white vote, but they need an outsized share of it, especially among the working class, in order to carry those states.
If there's the president of an independent candidate, it was a populist who appeals to non-college votes, then they pull a little bit away from the Republican.
That's it.
That's the ballgame.
It's the ballgame.
So what you're saying is, you know, and to avoid the Cathy Newman, right?
So to summarize, if Trump doesn't win the Rust Belt, if Trump doesn't win the Rust Belt, it's over, right?
It's over.
Absolutely.
He has no path to the presidency.
Do you see any path to the presidency for Trump without any Rust Belt state?
There was just a poll out that showed him either tied or slightly ahead in Virginia.
I believe that.
Like, I believe there's a hole in the back of my head right now.
Virginia is, you know, come on.
I mean, in a landslide... I shared that one, Grinch, this morning.
Come on, you're breaking my heart.
You need a combination of Arizona and Georgia with either Wisconsin or you could lose one of those two Sunbelt states, but then it would make it even more important to win the Rust Belt because you would need Michigan and Pennsylvania or one or both to offset those losses.
That's why Donald Trump is uniquely the strongest candidate.
On the Republican side in this race.
I don't really care what anybody says and repeating their stale talking points.
Donald Trump is the only candidate who plays in the Rust Belt.
And that is what makes him uniquely stronger than any other Republican.
If RFK is in that race, it threatens to take that away from him.
There's just Jack.
I mean, Again, we'll poll it and we'll lay it out for everybody to see, but I don't see how RFK doesn't hurt Trump.
It would still be close, without a doubt, but he's not getting support from the Northeast, Jack.
He's not getting support from the West.
We've been doing these polls for months now.
He's getting it from the Midwest and some Southern states.
Where are you going to go, right?
If you don't get any of the Rust Belt, explain, okay, we'll give them Ohio, right?
We'll give, I'll even give, I would say Ohio, give them Iowa, give them Ohio, okay, fine.
Where do you, then you've got to go out west is the only place you can go.
And now you're at, now you're in Nevada, now you're in Colorado, now you're in New Mexico.
Those are all steep uphill climbs.
They are very, very steep uphill climbs.
And even so, I get it, Nevada every once in a while comes close.
Would you say Maine?
Well, I mean, Maine doesn't, it just doesn't have enough votes though.
It doesn't have, that's what I was going to say.
On TimCast, we brought up the examples of, uh, the example of Maine.
The problem with that is it just doesn't have the electoral juice.
If you lose a state like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it doesn't have the, uh, you know, you always want to fight for every electoral vote, of course.
It can't offset losing one of those states.
Nevada even as well.
I mean, I do think Donald Trump could win the state this time around.
And I've long been a silver state skeptic for Republicans, but his improvement among Hispanics is so dramatic that he could really do something special in Clark County that others can't do.
So I do think it's up for grabs this time.
However, again, Throw Maine in there, Jack.
Throw Nevada in there.
Maybe New Mexico and Colorado get super close, uncomfortably close, for Joe Biden.
I just don't see it, even according to the polls.
You give me Nevada?
You give me Nevada?
Well, and then actually, you know what happens is, is what this also does, Rich, is This is something that we've talked about on the show before, because if this throws the entire race askew, let's talk about this scenario for a second there.
So let's say Trump does win Nevada, just for sake of argument, then Trump also wins Maine.
I love Maine.
I've got family in Ogunquit.
Ogunquit Wells, love the blueberry coffee, blackoutcoffee.com.
It's one of the most gorgeous states in the Union.
It's one of the best places to spend your summer.
I totally understand why Tucker goes up there all the time.
What happens though, Rich, because in that scenario, Biden wins the Rust Belt, Trump wins a couple of other states, but Biden doesn't get to 270 and Trump doesn't get to 270.
Now what are we looking at?
You go to the House for that.
I mean, that's what that that's ultimately what happens again.
And it could that I mean, that that's a scenario that could play out.
I just looking around the map to see, well, where else would there be an opportunity, you know, considering who RFK appeals to?
And I brought up Virginia before, Jack.
Could that stop it from going to the House?
No, because who is.
Yeah, look at this.
I'm on 270.
If if if Biden, even if Biden wins all of England and Nevada.
Yeah.
It's you're still the Dems are all that it's OK.
Biden can just get over 270.
He can just get over it.
But if you flip one of those states now, we're yeah.
Now you're looking at a House scenario.
Now you're looking at a House of Representatives.
That's how close this election is.
People don't seem seem to understand that these are very tight electoral situations we're in.
And there's a bunch of reasons for that.
It has to do with the sentence.
The census has to do with reapportionment, etc, etc.
But these are very, very close races.
And you're saying, oh, well, Trump could lose this state, that state, he could lose this group, that group.
No, no.
No, that's the ballgame.
That's the reason that so much money is being redirected to these areas.
So, Rich, if it goes to the House, do you think then that, okay, so it goes to the current House, right?
Or the new House?
Uh, yeah, right.
And there will be some changing in seats, uh... No, I think we're past all those specials that are really competitive.
So you're looking at generally the makeup now.
Unless, of course, they oust Matt Gaetz, you know, we'll see, but, uh...
Yeah, which is, you know, I'm not going to get into that.
I'll let you deal with that in another segment.
But, you know, there are some things that can happen.
Oh, gee, thanks, buddy.
Simple stuff.
I don't see Gates getting ousted.
I'll just put it that way.
No, me either.
But this is when that stuff, Jack, starts to really become so critical and important.
You know, you just can't.
Why do you think Democrats have all of a sudden stopped calling for Bob Menendez?
to be, to leave the Senate.
They obviously know and understand the balance of power. - Somebody's doing some counting. - That's right.
Now that Feinstein passed away, they can't do that. - Well, and also because Jeff Van Drew just announced that he's taking a look at that seat, when suddenly you got a viable Republican that could win statewide in New Jersey, which by the way, a lot shows you that Chris Christie hasn't even floated the idea of running because he would get laughed out of New Jersey.
Rich, I love doing these segments with you because people say it's prognostication, it's richnostication, but we have to go there every once in a while because these are the times we live in.
Where can people go to follow the latest from The People's Fund?
That's it.
peoplespundit.locals.com.
Check out the public polling project.
Like I said, we're going to poll this real soon.
We'll find out.
Dig into it.
peoplespundit.locals.com.
Thanks, Jack.
peoplespundit.locals.com.
What happens if Trump loses the race because of RFK?
Blocks it.
Cut a deal.
Just cut a deal.
Give him HHS.
Let him go after Fauci.
He'd love it.
...about the boring people at your office and trying to listen to the new human events with Jack Posobiec.
Alright, Jack Pasovic back here, live Human Events Daily.
We've got Lieutenant Colonel Tony Schaefer now on, joining us.
Lieutenant Colonel Schaefer, from the last time we had you on, we talked about how the Ukraine funding had become this sort of political football within the United States Congress, had it really become the sticking point.
Now, we did end up getting that clean CR put through, but Let me just ask you, from a perspective of a guy who's been in DC as long as you have, did you ever think that we would get to the point where the House GOP and the Senate GOP would be working that closely and that hard together where they would push through a bill that actually omitted all funding for Ukraine.
They said this isn't going to go through.
We'll fund the rest of the government.
That'll be fine.
But Ukraine funding is stripped out.
And I think a lot of people and I understand there's the Speaker McCarthy fight and a bunch of stuff that's going on right now.
But I actually think people are downplaying this Ukraine funding.
Talk to me about how big of a watershed moment this is.
Well, I think it's the practical situation that we face kind of being reflected in congressional thinking forward.
Finally, again, I just may be, let me be very clear on this.
Cause I always feel I need to clarify my job is to not, uh, be emotional.
It is not to take sides.
My job is to call balls and strikes.
We've been talking Jack for months about the fact that, uh, the war in Ukraine is not going well.
Uh, if you look at the maps.
Uh, the BBC kind of situational map, the war maps, you, you know, you're an intelligence officer, they have situation maps, they map everything out.
If you look at the 4th of June and you look at, uh, the 2nd of October or the 4th of October, you're going to see very little change.
So, uh, all that money that's been spent so far didn't have any positive effect on the war.
So I think most people now recognize Jack, like you and I've been talking about.
You got to think about doing something different, no matter what side you're on.
If you're pro-Russian, if you're pro-Ukraine, the situation regarding the battle hasn't changed.
So I think it's one of those situations where Congress, members of Congress, finally recognize that it's time to rethink this.
And the budget was a good excuse.
I think most of these guys and gals, unfortunately, Jack, Don't want to be held to any position that is members of Congress.
So this is a good excuse to say all budget.
We can't do this.
So I think that's why you finally saw positive action.
I think this is going to to result in more action to diminish the direct support the congressional funding of the war in Ukraine.
Well Antony, let's talk about that battlefield situation because as we've seen here in this, the New York Times came out over the weekend and said that over the course, and Elon Musk even commented on this, that over the course of the last two months, it looks as though, they said Ukraine has made some marginal pickups in the south,
But Russia has actually increased their holdings in the north, where they aren't even really conducting an offensive, which means that during the Ukraine counter-offensive, Russia has been able to take more territory.
In an attrition fight like this, and this is a dangerous question, but I'm going to have to ask it, does Russia have any incentive to negotiate at this point?
No.
No, Jack, of course not.
Look, I'm a Reagan guy, and I always believed, like the Reagan folks did, my friends and mentors, that you must always attempt as best you can to negotiate a position of strength.
That's how they were able to leverage our position, the U.S.
position over Russia and win the Cold War, by essentially having a sufficiently leveraged position to be effective.
There's no effectiveness in the Ukrainian position at this point.
As a matter of fact, I think there's ample evidence of three things.
First, Ukraine is going to have to start reconfiguring its battlefield forces for the defense.
That is to say, to your point, especially in the north, the Russians are about to return to the offensive.
That's a very dangerous thing if you believe that Ukraine is about to prevail, because they're not.
Secondly, relating to the funding.
Many other nations besides the United States have started to rethink this.
I think that Poland's already said they're not going to do it.
I think Hungary.
I think there's several other nations which are neighbors have said, yeah, we're out.
We're done.
And Tony, not only did Poland not say they're not going to do it, but what happened?
Oh, right.
Poland, which is facing a general election, a parliamentary election in two weeks, all of a sudden gets an EU funded Protest right on the streets of Warsaw for the very first time, only one week after the president came out, the president's member of law and justice came out and said that Ukraine, and Zelensky specifically, is like a drowning man trying to pull everyone else down with him.
And then they announced that they're going to cut arms sales.
Now suddenly, what do we see in the streets of Warsaw?
Oh, the opposition, the anti-government, and the pride flags are everywhere, the EU flags are everywhere.
We need to go after this.
No, what they want to do is they want to flood Poland with migrants.
And then, the same that they're doing with Italy and everywhere in Western Europe, and they want to turn Poland into the rape capital of Europe, take the title away from Sweden, who has fought very hard to get it, even though many of us told them not to.
And then the next thing they want to do is make sure that Poland, because Poland is the linchpin in all of this, not only for the security and military concerns vis-a-vis Ukraine, but also for what, Tony?
The energy concerns.
Well, energy and then the third point I was about to move to is the economic issues which relate to everything from energy to corruption.
One of the things that I think you're aware of already is that there was a leaked memo, strategy memo to Politico saying, oh, there's there's actually all sorts of shenanigans going on with corruption.
Really?
So it's like that scene in Casablanca.
I'm shocked to find gambling going on here.
Right.
Gambling?
Here?
Yeah.
So, of course, Ukraine says, well, we'll fight corruption if you pay us $5 billion.
Like, OK, sure.
But wait, let's go through this, because this is a strategic leak.
It was a strategic leak to Politico, I believe, by the Biden administration.
That all of a sudden, when Zelensky seems like he's worn out his welcome, what do we find?
That the State Department had this secret document that they had put an unclass version up on the State Department website with no fanfare, but then all of a sudden we get one of these, you know, Secret documents, wink wink, nudge nudge, that's in the headlines of Politico, essentially saying that Biden views the number one threat to Ukraine not as Russia, but as corruption from who?
Oh, that's right, Zelensky's own administration.
That means the writing might be on the wall for Mr. Vlad.
What do you think's going on there, Tony?
Well, first off, let's put it in perspective.
This is all kabuki theater.
Biden knows about the corruption.
He's benefited from it.
I mean, look, this is one of the things that happened.
I mean, come on, look, it's a Reese's Cup moment.
You've got the Biden corruption, the peanut butter, with the Ukrainian corruption, the chocolate.
It's kind of, you know, Are we doing Halloween puns already?
It's our first show of October.
We're already on Halloween puns, folks.
But that's the point.
It's like they're actually trying to, to your point, they're leaking this as like a benefit.
Oh, there's corruption.
We have to focus on corruption.
No, this is more of this administration trying to essentially move forward with the idea that we, the United States, must be involved in the future of Remember, BlackRock's lining up to go in there to rebuild, the Clinton Global Initiative.
So what they're trying to do here is say, well, since there's so much corruption, only we can sort that out.
Much like we did in Afghanistan.
The whole idea is that we, this is this white man's burden.
This is the racism of the left on full display.
We, we must be the ones who come in and fix these things.
It's an arrogance combined with all sorts of hubris.
And, but they're trying to, to lay these, these little clues saying, Oh, there's all this corruption.
We must, and we must protect our investment.
And that's what they're going to go with right now.
It's like, well, we spent all this money.
We got to protect the investment and we got to rebuild it.
So I think that's where they're going with it right now.
Well, I think you're exactly right, and if Zelensky becomes more of a liability to these same interests than a benefit, then they'll get rid of him, and they'll take one of the other generals, they'll take one of the other ministers, and they'll replace him, and suddenly they'll say, oh, you know, it turns out they're corruption, they'll bring up all the Panama Papers stuff again.
This is how they've been using this corruption on Zelensky, plus the threat of the Azov battalion and all these other guys.
Remember, Erdogan wasn't going to send the Azovstal guys back until after the war had ended, but then, whoops, they somehow just made it all the way back.
Look, it's the carrot and the stick that they're using to get Zelensky to play ball, and if he doesn't, they will make him dance however they want.
Remember, the guy's an actor.
That's what he was hired for in the first place.
Stay tuned.
We're coming back.
Human Events Daily.
All the Ukraine updates.
What does it mean?
Congress.
Will they get their funding through or not?
The corruption.
What's happening?
Stay tuned.
I'm always listening to Human Events with Jack Posobiec.
Alright, Jack Posobiec back here, Human Events Daily.
Now, here's a question.
Tony, we just had this crazy situation up in Canada where essentially their speaker just had to step down over accidentally praising a member of the Waffen-SS, Zelinsky Trudeau, in the room.
Now Politico Europe has this huge, the cleanup crew has come in, they've got this headline out today.
Well, just because you fought against the USSR doesn't make you a Nazi.
In fact, then other people have been pointing out as well that, hold on a minute, we're celebrating veterans who fought against the Russians, but weren't the Russians on our side in World War II?
So, Why are we celebrating people that were on the side of the Axis to begin with, regardless of which specific unit they were in at all?
Where does this come from?
And this is your great Orwellian moment of, we've always been at war with East Asia, and this, of course, has been used and has been one of the slogans and raison d'etre of Putin from the very beginning of all this, that essentially that Ukraine is a Nazi regime, and you just handed him a massive propaganda victory.
How are the Russians responding to all this?
Well, Medvedev, the former, I guess the current prime minister and former president, I mean, they switch back and forth.
Medvedev has actually said... He's kind of seen as the waiting in the wings guy, like the next president, sort of.
So he's basically come out and said flat out that they're calling for regime change of the fascist regime in Kiev.
So it's kind of...
If you can't, if you couldn't have stepped in it more readily than you did in Canada, I don't know.
I mean, look, Jack, this has this, that moment, that moment of Zelensky with Trudeau, with this member of the Third Reich who actually engaged as a member of one of the units who was implementing the final solution.
Hitler's, the final, I can't even remember how they phrased it, the final question to The final answer to the Jewish question or something, however it was phrased by the Germans.
But that guy, that that that Nazi, I'll say it because we can now, because that guy was a member of one of the units which was actually engaged, engaged in ethnic cleansing and the murder of Jews.
So it is what it is, what it is.
And so the Russians are always ready to pounce on any unforced error.
Jack, this is the unforced error of the century where this This incident plays into everything the Russians have been saying from the beginning and now to reinforce the perception at home in Russia that the fight that they, the Russians, are engaged in is legitimate.
It's necessary.
It just plays to the home front.
I think you're going to see a lot of Russian support.
They were about 40,000 troops short of the 400,000 they were seeking.
Katie, bar the door.
They're going to use this for purposes of trying to get that last $40,000, and this circles back to the beginning of our conversation.
What are the Russians going to do with $400,000?
They're going to use it for recruitment.
Well, they're going to use those for him.
Yeah.
You said before, and it's very interesting to me that they're directly targeting Zelensky's regime right now, because you said before that you thought that the original plan was that this, and Putin called it a special military operation, that this was supposed to be a two to three week operation to basically force the hand of Kiev Sure, there's questions about the Donbass region, but really the big enchilada was staying out of NATO.
The goal originally was two to three weeks, get them to say that we're going to maintain military neutrality, stay out of NATO, and then pull back.
Obviously, that didn't happen.
And by the way, we were told, and this has been reported so many times now, Zelensky wanted to agree to that, that he was willing to do that by March of 2022.
They were going to fly down to Istanbul and do this, then Boris Johnson comes over and a slew of others and they blow up the negotiations.
That's why they're in this situation now.
But if you remember early on, and I tracked this, That the Russians were never calling for Zelensky to step down.
They were never calling for his ouster.
Putin told Naftali Bennett on the phone, the Prime Minister of Israel, that he would not target Zelensky.
Then Zelensky starts going and doing all those videos out on the street.
What you've just identified could potentially be a strategic shift on the goals of the Kremlin because now they actually are saying that they want the entire regime gone.
What does that mean?
Well, it means that the very fabric of the war has changed dramatically.
I mean, to your point, it was going to be a very limited military incursion.
Putin has said this several times.
It was meant to essentially be a punitive expedition, to use one of our terms, into Ukraine to kind of say, hey, you need to stop doing this.
And it's expanded out.
And I think this could well result in ultimately the partition of Ukraine, because those 400,000 troops, Jack, Uh, come winter, they're going to, you're going to, they, the Kremlin are going to have the option of going in militarily and doing a bifurcation of the country.
I think there's a good chance the Russians could go basically increase their amount of military force, uh, and go and, uh, go up to the Dnieper river and split the country in half.
I think there's a pretty good chance of that at this point.
And I think it'd be a tragedy, but I think Putin has been made, has made this very clear.
Russia, Russia will not lose this war.
Ukraine will not necessarily lose either, but the country may well be split in half.
And I think that's where this is going at this point.
So you think potentially a frozen conflict.
So we're talking basically East, West Germany, North, South Korea, or even prior at certain points of the Vietnam War, we had North, South Vietnam.
Right.
And I think that's where it's going to go, because I don't think the Russians have the political will to take the entire country or the interest.
I know they don't want to actually get into war with Russia, with the NATO.
NATO and Russia would not be a necessary war, nor do I think either side would benefit from it.
So remember, Jack, who benefits?
Who benefits from the conflict?
Well, you point out that the West benefited from propping up and getting Zelensky to move forward and oppose the negotiated peace.
Heck, the British over the weekend floated the idea of sending in British troops.
It's like, that's going to be interesting if they decide to do that.
I don't think it's in our interest.
There's a range of things which I think are being floated, but I think the bottom line is because of the way Russia has sustained its military forces in an attrition perspective, they're trying to attrit the Ukrainian forces with this new change of opinion saying that maybe there's a fascist regime in Kiev.
It does strengthen the propaganda that they've been using to justify military force from the beginning.
And this all plays right into the Russian hands at this point.
Tony, where can people go to follow you to get more information?
So, we are on Project Sentinel, ProjectSentinel.net and ProjectSentinel.com.
Follow me on Twitter.
A lot of interesting things going on there all the time.
And Jack, as always, I enjoy joining you for these discussions and thank you for having me.
T Spooky, one of the best guys out there.
You follow him, you will know what's going on weeks and days in advance, and that is exactly where we like to keep the Human Events audience.
Keep an eye on Poland, and I'm not just saying that because I'm biased.
I'm saying it because it looks like the next color revolution might be coming in Poland.
15 days, October 15th, will be the next election, parliamentary election, 13th, in Poland.
