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Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller Your Next Five Moves (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.
Why would you bet on Goliath when we got pet David?
Value payment gives and values contagious.
This world of entrepreneurs, we can't know value to hate it.
I'd be running, homie, look what I become.
I'm the I'm the one.
We come, homie.
What was that, Tom?
That's about it.
Oh, wow.
Okay, that's great.
Well, today, Home Team Gang, we got a lot of stories that we haven't covered due to guests that we've been having.
I said last minute, why don't we do a home team?
And we're doing it an hour typically before we do the podcast.
So California, it's 5 a.m.
Many people are probably not even awake yet for this podcast.
But those of you that are with us, fantastic.
Let's get right into it.
A lot going on.
Economy.
10-year treasury yield hits 4.8%, a 16-year high.
Banks are bracing for a recession as treasury yields surge.
Mortgage rate races towards 8% after hitting a high.
Not seen since late 2000.
And Tom is saying they're about to increase possibly the rates again.
And if they do, the rest of the year is going to be very, very interesting.
Many will have to brace for impact.
There's a jobs report that came in, September's jobs report.
There's a lot, a lot of things in it.
A couple strikes going on.
People, this was the year of investigation, the year of strikes.
Gang, wait till you hear the wrecking-breaking strike that's taking place right now.
And then we'll go into what Putin's doing.
Putin says Russia has tested next generation nuclear weapons.
And they said Russia's mission is to create the new world, not be part of the new world order, but to create the new world.
GOP holds the biggest lead on the economy since 1991.
Wait till you see what happened to Starbucks in San Francisco.
Very interesting that it coincides with what happened with Nancy Pelosi.
Weird.
Jamie Dimon says AI could bring not four-day work week, but he was aggressive.
He said three and a half day work.
Wow.
Three and a half day workweek is what he's saying.
It's coming here soon.
And then outside of that, American apocalypse, 71% of Americans don't believe the U.S. government is able to prevent doomsday.
Trevor Bauer's accuser, Lindsey Hall, opens up on text and video claims, and even Trevor Bauer finally shows videos and it's done, done, but they stole two years of his life.
And I would say probably $100 million of this guy's life on what they did.
And it's permanent.
That story is going to stick around for a while.
World Economic Forum Advisor says the coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates and America's non-religious groups growing.
Outside of that, the last story I'll tell you here that we'll get into, which is very annoying, adults shouting.
By the way, this is a CNN story.
So adults.
Adults.
Check this out, Vinny.
Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual or physical abuse.
Let me read this to you one more time, folks.
I thought you're joking.
Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual or physical abuse.
So again, just absolutely insanity when you're hearing a story like that.
But why don't we do this?
Why don't we go into a story and then we'll go to our sponsor and then we'll get into the podcast.
So strike, Tom, why don't you lead the way?
Tell us what's going on with these strikes.
So we've been talking about the Hollywood strike and we've been talking about the UAW strike.
But in the last 48 hours, the largest strike in U.S. history happened as the healthcare workers walked out.
So what is happening is, could it be that in the mind of the worker, the unionized worker, and unions, remember, in private unions, maybe private companies, we're not talking about teachers' unions or government unions, those are public unions.
These private unions, people are looking around and saying, wow, you know, stock market's up.
You know, look at the amount that CEOs make and everything.
The economy seems to pop back after COVID.
And inflation's hurting me.
I want to be paid more.
And so how do unionized people do it?
They negotiate.
And when that doesn't work to their liking, big jumps, they go on strike.
And so all the talk about Hollywood over the last two and a half months, all the talk about the UAW and the auto workers, what's happening to potentially the price and availability of cars as workers aren't working.
Yet 48 hours, last 48 hours, the largest strike in U.S. history happened.
Healthcare workers.
How many is that?
75,000 went out on day one.
I saw that.
And the raise they're asking for is what?
What's the raise they're asking for?
It's the standard 20 to 40 percent.
And then they're trying to find out where that soft landing in the negotiation is going to be.
So how different is this one than the other strikes that are taking place?
I don't think it's very different at all.
It's like they are trying to make up for lost time and they're all getting pinched by inflation.
So the argument that they're making is one is economic and saying, and I can't even afford to buy eggs.
But on the other side is, hey, we haven't had cost of living increases.
That's an argument in the beef with the employer.
Well, hey, our cost of living increases haven't kept pace with inflation.
Well, if COLA was keeping pace with inflation, last year's COLA would have been 16.5% after two years.
How much of this, we've seen the Hollywood writers strike, we've seen the actors strike, we've seen the United Auto Workers.
Now we're seeing healthcare.
This is like breaking news, right?
How much of this is tied to inflation, cost of living increases?
How much of it is tied to AI, especially in the writer's strike?
Make some sense of the common threat of what's actually happening with all these strikes.
I can't remember a time where it's strike, strike, strike.
We've seen the teacher union do this every once in a while.
Make sense of this for us, Tom.
So the AI, you bring up a really great point.
There's a lot of factors in here.
And so, Adam, I think the AI is not as prevalent in these union and manufacturing and jobs as I don't think AI hits those jobs.
I don't think AI hits the worker on the assembly line.
The use of robotics does, but that's not AI.
What's happening here is these people are regular citizens, nieces, nephews, aunts, uncles of everybody in this room.
They are out there and they have felt the effects of now three years of inflation, which I added up to 16.5% on core, 24% if you add in energy and things like that.
So they're feeling that effect.
That's not the fault of the employer.
But the COLAs, the cost of living increases, 2%, 3%, 2% that were in the last union contract haven't kept up with that.
So they're like, hey, look at the stock market.
Look at corporate profits.
Look at what the CEO made.
You know what?
Look what happened with inflation.
I can't afford to buy eggs.
So they're going out on strike.
Part of it is a lag in normal COLA.
And the other half of it, man, they're trying to make ends meet.
And they have one employer, but they're armed with the union contract.
And so they're striking.
So you're saying it's not necessarily the fault of the employer?
We get that, right?
Especially big corporations.
At the same time, profits have been up.
What about regular businesses out there?
Because most people here listening aren't running Fortune 500 companies.
They're running small businesses, 100 employees, if not less or more.
How is it affecting those types of companies as well?
To answer your first question, I think it's 60-40, 60% the economy and 40% the company.
Because remember, these are union contracts, and you know they're dissatisfied with the union contract the minute they sign it, right?
From that moment, the average union worker is dissatisfied with the contract because there's all the stuff we didn't get in the contract.
Well, we'll wait three years and next time we'll go get them.
And I think it's 40% the economy.
So I think that there is a simmering frustration and the inflation over three years on Bidenomics.
Boom.
Put a match on that.
That's dry straw.
I think they're being opportunistic.
What is this article saying?
Five things to know about the strike.
Can you go a little lower?
Because if you're a patient, Pat, how many people are going to be able to do that?
You know what I mean, Tom?
I think I know where you're going, Pat.
I agree with that word.
You're seeing everybody else strike.
Yeah, I think it's purely it's kind of like, you know, all the houses in your community sell for two times what you bought two years ago, and people are going to be like, dude, I'm selling.
Cash in.
Let's capitalize.
Let's cash in on strikes right now.
So five things you need to know.
Workers are mainly striking in California, Colorado, Oregon.
You can still see your doctor during the strike.
Lab tests may take longer.
Your surgery may be rescheduled or postponed.
Oh, wow.
Inconvenient if it's a triple bypass.
Your prescription may take longer to get.
So $75,000.
I looked at it right now.
They're asking for a 25% raise is what they're asking for.
Kaiser came back and Kaiser offered them a 12.5% to 16% range to 10,000 employees.
But the union came back and said, no, we want more in a season like this.
By the way, partially when you're looking at this is why is this happening?
You say the economy, right?
We talked about this a couple weeks ago about a mortgage payment.
Did we talk about what a mortgage payment would be on a $500,000?
Yes, you did.
You did the math for everybody, how it doubled.
Did we do that on the podcast or were we?
You did that on the when we were in LA, when you were on Dave Rubin and the Robinson.
Oh, I did it on Rubin or I did it on this.
You did it on Rubin.
Okay, so then let me do this.
Let me go to this story.
So check this out.
So mortgage rate races towards 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000.
Okay.
This is a CNBC story that we're talking about.
This is, so here's what it looks like.
Rob, get the mortgage calculator from Google Up.
Yeah, that would be perfect.
So the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate surge to 7.72, the highest since the end of 2000, driven by rising yields on a 10-year treasury, which has been climbing due to strong economic data.
Mortgage rates, which had briefly dropped to around 6% at the beginning of the year, have been steadily rising over the summer, impacting home sales despite strong demand.
There's a possibility that rates may exceed 8%.
The higher mortgage rates have adversely affected housing affordability and a new and existing home sale markets, causing homebuilder sentiment to decline.
For example, a borrower purchasing a $400,000 house with a 20% down payment on a 30-year fix faced a mortgage payment roughly 930 higher compared to a 3% rate during the height of COVID pandemic.
So check this out.
Pull up the mortgage calculator if you can.
All right, let's say you do $500,000, okay?
Is the loan, 30-year fixed, and take that to 8%.
Okay, take that to 8%.
Okay, so the payment is what?
$3,669.
Just write that down.
$3,700.
$3,669.
Okay.
Now, the only thing I want you to change is just change that 8% to 3%, which was what it was 18 months ago, 2108.
Okay.
So 2108.
Almost $1,500.
You're talking about $1,551 more.
So do $1,551 divided by $2108.
What's $1,551 divided by $2,108?
$1,551 divided by $2,108 is, it's a 74% increase on mortgage payments.
Now, Rob, if we do this, take the 2108, just pull up a regular calculator, pull up a regular calculator, and divide the 2108, put 2,108 divided by 0.36.
0.36 equals, that's what the bank is going to want to see for your income.
Times 12.
What?
Okay.
Hang on.
So the bank is going to want your monthly income to be $5,855.
Do it now times 12 to see what the annual would be.
Okay.
Equals what?
So they want a $70,000 your income to qualify for a $500,000 loan 18 months ago.
Now, go clear the whole thing up.
Real quick, why'd you do 0.36?
That's the debt to income.
Gotcha.
That's what you need to be making with all the payments.
Explain that for a second.
Your bank is evaluating you, right?
For people listening?
Yo, so the bank is looking at you saying, can this guy afford to buy this house?
How much money do you make per month?
So they'll take the mortgage payment and divide it times, you know, typical number is going to be 0.36.
And you get that number to know this is what you need to make to be able to afford to buy the house.
So now watch this.
Go to the 3669.
So same house, same area, 18 months different.
Rates are 8%.
Now divided by 0.36.
Now the bank wants you to make 10,919.
Times 12.
So over $100,000 a year, you're saying.
Yeah, wait.
Guys, they want your income to be $122,000 to qualify for the same house.
So then you ask the question for the strikes and you say, okay, why are they striking?
Maybe because they can't afford to buy the house.
So by dynamics, guess what?
More he talks about biodynamics, it's the worst thing he's doing for himself the more he's on my biodynamics.
And outside of this, you know what's the first default that's shown right now?
You know what is the first default?
Because right now.
Commercial real estate.
Well, we're seeing on a lower level.
So you got to let's categorize the defaults.
We have car payments.
Under car payments, we have good credit car payments and we have D-paper, which is subprime car payments.
Then on mortgage, you have what?
Regular people that got mortgages that have good credit, then you have subprime.
Then you have commercial real estate is what?
Regular people that got good, you know, commercial, some of them that did hardcore financing.
You have school loans.
Okay.
You know what is the first thing right now that's defaulting right now?
Is subprime car payments is up, skyrocketing.
Which is core workers that have a reasonable amount of debt.
Yes.
And they're probably paying 15% and less more, whatever it is.
Yeah, so because these guys credit is not $7.50,000.
Their credit score is $650,000.
$620.
And they're trying to get car financing.
You ever gone to a car, try to a dealership to get a car financing with back credit?
Your payment is 30% higher, 20% higher.
That guy, A, if you're in that financial situation, probably don't understand interest rates for all that matter.
But when you walk into the car lot, they're like, how much does your monthly payment need to be?
All right, yeah, I can afford $350.
They don't like, don't look over here that you're paying 18%.
Yeah.
And that's how payment-based, you know, you're absolutely right finance.
Don't look here.
Let's describe one of those subprime workers Pat's talking about.
How about this?
A nurse at Kaiser Permanente making $65,000 a year, seven years out of school, still with school loans.
She is a subprime borrower, and she is currently in a picket line.
Yeah.
And so that is the reason why I believe a lot of these strikes are taking place because the economy is destroying the average guy today.
It is destroying the average guy.
You know who else is starting a default right now?
Who else is starting a default right now?
By the way, you know, WeWork at one point was a $47 billion company.
WeWork.
You've heard of WeWork.
They just defaulted on a payment.
Rob, type in rework default payment.
I think it's a $95 million payment they just defaulted on.
Zoom in a little bit.
$95 million payment they just defaulted on.
What?
So shared office space rental company, WeWork said it wouldn't be making interest payments on about $95 million due Monday, and its shares fell at an all-time low.
WeWork said it would use its 30-day grace period for the debt payments to hold discussions with certain stakeholders and to enhance its liquidity.
You miss on a $95 million payment.
Now, you may say, dude, Pat, that's a lot of money.
You were valued at $47 billion.
$40 billion.
So you know what this shows?
Can you type in WeWork highest valuation?
We work highest valuation.
I think it's $46, $47 billion.
$47 billion.
I was right.
So you're a $47 billion.
Look at this year.
In 2017, SoftBank Group made the first of its total $18.5 billion investment in the company.
Wow.
$95 million is what?
$1.1 billion.
You can't make a year like that.
So now you got subprime guys.
Hang on, divide $1.1 billion by $36.
How much does that company have?
You divide.
You divide.
That's a good point, by the way.
You divide.
You look at default payments on commercial real estate.
Okay.
So we work as the bigger commercial because that's what they do.
They rent the office space.
Then you default on subprime.
You know what hit in 08 that destroyed the economy?
Mortgage payments people started defaulting on.
We haven't felt that yet.
That's why this is a very different.
And the reason why default isn't hitting, why isn't default hitting?
Because people got low interest rates.
Right.
That's what I was going to say.
Yeah, they got low interest rates.
Back in the 08, we all remember Nina, right?
No income, no assets.
Those are the good old days.
Stripper making 100 grand cash bought just three houses.
Congratulations.
We saw that.
Remember the big short?
My sister Steve Carroll.
You have three houses?
Anacondo.
Anacondo.
Yeah, doing their thing.
So Anaconda, what'd you say?
Anaconda?
Anaconda?
That was a song.
Anacondo.
I thought for a second you were singing.
I don't want to touch you.
Can you just dance?
I know you're a big Nikki Minaj fan.
She's a huge fan of the case studies.
You do.
I know that she cites you all the time.
Respect.
Here's my question.
I would like to know the mortgages that are defaulting now, percentage of how many are defaulting from the good old days, you know, 3% or less, versus people that got a mortgage in the last, let's say, 24 months since mortgages have skyrocketed, where that comes in.
You're like, all right, I just really wanted to buy a house.
I missed the boat.
I could have got 3% a year or two ago.
Now I'm at 6.5%.
Boom, default.
I got laid off my job, unemployed, picket line, what have you.
That would be an interesting case study.
That would be to see which one is defaulting.
Somebody in that space has to break it down and see where these defaults are going to be because they're not here yet.
So a lot of real estate and mortgage guys are saying, well, you guys call the doomsday, all this stuff.
It's not here.
They're right.
It's not here yet because people are not selling their houses because they don't want to lose that 3% interest rate.
You know what I think, Matt Tupel?
You know that, like, when you don't make a payment, not you, I'm just saying agenda on your credit card.
They call the creditors.
They call you.
What is that $95 million phone call like?
Like, hey, yeah, we work.
Yeah.
What do you guys do?
And then, Pat, what's it then that we showed?
The five ways it's affecting the patients.
Rob, one of them was you could still see your doctor.
Where?
On the picket line?
You're going to have to show them like, yo, hey, Doc, just real quick.
Hey, Doc, it's Vinny.
Look, have a rash.
He's like, just get the hell off the street.
Well, you know, speaking of that 95 million dollars.
Nurse pick is temperature and blood pressure.
Who?
What was going on in China?
Not Evergrande, but a company bigger than Evergrande in China, the commercial real estate developer.
What was the name of that company?
Do you recall?
Whatever.
They're a huge, massive real estate company.
They had to make a $25 million payment, whatever the number was.
But they're valued at $100 billion, some astronomical number, but they didn't make the payment.
So not that our audience is concerned about what's going on in Chinese real estate, but here it is right here.
Country Garden makes $22 million payment with $15 billion more to go.
That's insane.
Wow.
So again, this is a sign of what's to come.
By the way, before we get to the next story, let's go to our sponsors, Masterworks.
Here's Masterworks.
You ever seen a movie Big Short?
You know the guy Michael Burry who said the market's going to crash.
Nobody believed him.
Well, Michael Burry just recently bet $1.6 billion against the market.
He took people's money, $1.6 billion, and he said the market's about to go down.
That's what he did.
The last time he got it right, he's doing it again.
On top of that, Jerome Powell about interest rates says, I'm still not comfortable with what's going on with inflation, which means they may raise the rates again.
Proceeding carefully is the word they're using.
So what's happened at a time like this?
Alternative assets is one of the things a lot of people are looking at.
This is why we decided to work with Masterworks, and they're our sponsor today, Masterworks.
They've done 16 sales so far, with all 16 returning a profit.
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Once again, masterworks.com forward slash PBD podcast or click on a link below.
Nice.
So there you have it.
Thank you, Masterworks.
So next story I want to get into is the bond story.
So if we go to page 15, page 15, treasury bonds.
This is another issue here that some are very worried about.
10-year treasury yields, 4.8%, a 16-year high.
This is a CNBC story.
This is the highest level since 2007, hitting 4.8% while the 30-year Treasury yield surge to 4.924.
These yields have implications for mortgage rates and investment sentiment.
The increasing yields come as a job opening and labor turnover survey indicates a tight labor market, giving the Federal Reserve reason to continue raising rates.
Bingo, that's not what realtors want to hear.
Fed officials have differing views on the need for further rate hikes, but most agree that rates will remain elevated for a considerable period.
Market uncertainty surrounds the timing of rate hikes with two central bank policy meetings scheduled for the remainder of the year.
Tom, what does this mean to the average guy?
Well, to the average guy, it basically means that rates on everything are going to be higher longer.
That's what it means.
So the car loans, home loans, credit cards, even if you get good credit, if you carry over a month or two, they're going to be higher longer.
And it means that businesses are going to have a tougher time expanding when they're turning to the bond market or the debt market to go get debt because they're going to have to pay for it.
So the average person is going to see the cost of borrowing on basic things like a car, a used car.
You know, you give an example, you finance an air conditioning unit.
How much is an air conditioning unit, Pat?
You've seen them at your house, like 25, 30 grand.
30 grand for a while.
I bought like six of them.
I know the one.
What about the one here?
One of them was $48,000.
$40.
Yeah.
So if you, let's put it in perspective.
What if you have a middle-sized house with two $24,000 units upstairs, downstairs?
That's $48,000.
Those are things that the average consumer has to finance when they happen.
So the rates are going to be higher longer on financing, and it's going to be harder for businesses to borrow money and expand.
So job openings are going to be less.
So the average person is going to see probably for the next 24, 36 months, a very tenuous economy and ignore the headlines about high-flying stocks like NVIDIA.
Oh, wait, which is down 15% in two weeks after their peak.
It's going to be tough for the average person.
Adam, you also had thoughts on this.
You were digging this this morning as well.
Well, so obviously in the asset world, you have stocks and you have bonds and you have cash and then alternative assets as well.
But I think it's important to understand that obviously the younger you are, the more risk you can take, right?
So you should be more in equities and stocks.
And the older you are, you're more in fixed income and bonds and there's sort of a relationship there.
As we've seen over the last couple of years with Jerome Powell and the Fed, they've raised interest rates.
So Tom, correct me if I'm wrong.
Interest rates and bonds have an inverse relationship, right?
Meaning they go sort of in opposite directions.
As interest rates go up, bonds go down.
As interest rates go down, bonds go up.
So the market, I mean, here, just look at this article right here.
This is from Business Insider.
The collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst market crashes in history.
Nobody's talking about the bond market.
The stock market, the stock market, the stock market, the Dow's Up, the SP.
What people don't sometimes realize is there's an entire market called the bond market that is completely separate from the stock market.
And the collapse in Treasury bonds now ranks among the worst crashes in history, as you can see on the screen.
And there's another inside story same day.
Investors are now having a panic attack about the bond market.
So, Tom, should young people even worry about something like this?
Do they have bonds even in their portfolio?
Or is this something that if you're the 65-plus community, not that you're going to be there anytime soon, Tom, you're holding steady.
I get it.
What are older people?
What should my mom be thinking about right now?
This actually reminds me of something.
You said there's two types of people in this world.
There's the people that are trying to make their first billion and the people who already have it.
People that are trying to make their first billion aren't necessarily investing in bonds, but the people who already have it want to keep their money in a very secure, risk-free asset class, but it seems pretty freaking risky today.
It is.
It used to be that you could go to treasuries because it's backed by the confidence of the U.S. government and whatnot.
And over the last two years, there is a finance vehicle that has been big with people over 65.
It's been huge.
The billions that have gone there have been astronomical, and it is the annuity because the annuity is a financial vehicle for people who don't know what annuity is.
It's like the opposite of an insurance policy.
Insurance policy, you pay a little bit along the way.
And then when you die, there's a big payment that's made to your family, your heirs, the beneficiary.
Well, an annuity is opposite.
You take a lump of money and you give it to the insurance company.
And after about seven years, they start giving you a monthly allowance.
And it's a great way to give yourself another payment in addition to any pensions or social security you might have.
Well, annuities are also safe because they have a guaranteed interest rate.
And if the market crashes, your annuity stays frozen at that number.
So your annuity doesn't crash.
So it's a very good vehicle for older people.
So sorry to get technical, but right now with this going on, there is a flight to quality and protection and annuities or cash.
I looked at my mom's Merrill Lynch report and they have her almost 65%.
Remember, she's 82.
So they have her almost 65% cash and she was at 5.375 last month.
I'm like, praise God, somebody at Merrill Lynch is paying attention and working with you, mom, because that's the right decision.
And money market accounts are paying 5%.
That's right.
This is a Merrill money.
If you go back to 08, which Patch mentioned before with the recession and lowering of the interest rates, essentially there was free money for over a decade, right?
What was the Fed fund rate prior to 2020?
0%?
Well, at the time of the crash, the average mortgage in America was 5.25%.
The mortgage rate, but I'm saying the Fed fund rate, like it was 0%.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Moments after the end of 08.
And you have certain markets like in Europe and Asia where it was actually negative, right?
Like minus 1%.
Now the Fed fund rate is what?
5%.
The prime rate is closer to 8%.
So kind of to circle back to my point, as interest rates go up, bond prices fall.
Okay, so let's go to this next story here.
Wall Street Journal.
Wall Street thinks America's homes are overvalued.
By the way, New York Post story previous day says U.S. office real estate price is headed for severe crash investor savings.
So let me read the Wall Street Journal one.
They kind of go together.
U.S. singly family house prices have continued to rise despite interest rate hikes, reaching a new high in July, while commercial real estate, including apartments, have faced declines in value.
Institutional investors who bought numerous single-family homes during the pandemic have scaled back their purchases due to rising debt costs and moderated rent growth.
Large landlords purchased only 0.4% of U.S. homes in the second quarter, down from a peak of 2.4% in late 2021.
Some real estate investment trusts, REITs, specializing in single-family homes, have slowed their buying or become net sellers.
Shares of U.S. single-family housing REITs, real estate investment trusts, trade at a 20% discount.
Folks, that's a 20%.
So a $40 million property is $32 million, 20% discount.
$500,000 house is $400,000.
That's right.
A gross asset value, suggesting cautioning among investors about the future value of home prices.
And then New York Post says the following.
A survey of investors indicates that commercial real estate market in the U.S. is heading for a severe collapse, primarily due to high interest rates and declining property values.
Approximately two-thirds of respondents believe that the market will only recover after a crash.
Respondents in the survey predict different timelines for when office property prices will hit bottom, with 44% expecting it to happen the second half of the next year and 22% anticipating it'll happen the first six months of 2024.
Only 6% believe prices will bottom out this year, while 29% think it'll be in 2025 or later.
Factors contributing to this impending crisis include aggressive rates by the Federal Reserve, reduced demand for office space spaces and concerns about potential defaults on $1.5 trillion and debt maturing by the end of 2025.
Tom.
This is scary.
So basically what this is saying, if the American residential homes is a stock market, so just think of that.
You don't have to get deep in the technical.
Let's just say all residential homes in America is a stock market.
And you know, basically you got your property tax, you have the house that sold down the street, one of the few houses that did, and you can see the price it sold for.
That is your market price.
So there's your average market price right now today.
Your stock market is trading 20% below that, meaning that they believe there's a bubble.
Well, what's going to trigger the bubble?
Well, Pat was just reading, second half of 24 or into 25.
Why are they forecasting that far out?
I'll tell you why.
They believe the Fed is going to raise interest rates one quarter point on October 31st, Halloween, to November 1st.
That's when they have their next meeting.
And then hold steady for six months, getting through fourth quarter, see what Black Friday is all about, see how the consumer spent, get into the beginning of the year where, you know, Tuesday lackluster in January and then the consumer picks up.
They're forecasting that they will not come to lower rates.
And this is the Fed, all the Fed governors talking that they're not going to make the first rate lowering until the end of March, end of Q1, beginning of Q2 next year.
So that's the first time the rate lowers.
Then if the economy is doing well and there'll be pressure from the administration to lower those rates going into the election, owe that.
And so as that happens toward the end of 24, now the mortgages maybe drop under seven to six and a quarter and maybe touch that magic 5.75.
People would be willing to sell.
Sell at what price?
These folks think the bubble is going to be a 20% pricing adjustment.
So I hope you followed that little storyline there.
I tried to keep it straight.
20%.
I actually want to get your perspective, PPD.
So we talked about the inverse relationship between the interest rates and the bonds and all that fun stuff.
I'm curious to know the relationship, the correlation between residential real estate prices and home prices and the correlation there.
What's my point?
During COVID, we saw the exact opposite thing happen.
It was, talk about supply and demand.
The rush to go buy a house during COVID was astronomical.
Everyone wanted to move out of their apartments and move out of the city, buy their house.
The mortgage rates were 3%.
Rush, Major demand for residential housing.
But the exact opposite, get me one, was get me the hell out of this office.
Get me out of my lease.
I do not want to be here.
Work from anywhere, work from home.
So commercial real estate obviously took a major hit.
Now things have sort of recalibrated.
People are, you know, you see Jamie Dimon saying, hey, we'll just work from work from home was sort of done or whatever that story was.
What's that correlation typically?
And where's it at today?
I'm trying to understand those dynamics.
This is what?
This is...
So commercial real estate, obviously, there was a major decline during COVID.
Yeah.
But residential, major boom.
Maybe what's the typical correlation?
Where is it at today?
Okay, so go to that story.
That's actually a good story to go into.
So JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says AI could bring a three and a half day work week.
Let's read this article.
So CEO Jamie Dimon, there's a benefits of artificial intelligence, which is already being used by thousands of employees at the bank, and he predicts it'll usher in the norm of a shortened work.
Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology.
And literally, they'll probably be working three and a half days a week.
Diamond says the bank's investment in AI will add huge value and is being leveraged across the firm's research, trading customer service and other functions.
When asked if technology is likely to replace some bank jobs, he responded that of course it will, but that technologies will always replace jobs.
He also added that bank hires 30,000 people a year and that he expects many displaced workers will be transferred to new locations with roles with a new company.
As many as 300 million jobs around the world could be affected by AI according to a recent Golden Sachs report.
And about one in five workers have a job with high exposure to AI according to Pew Research Center through it's unclear if AI enhanced or displaced these roles.
So, okay, you read all this stuff.
Like, for example, this one building we're looking at, right?
This building in February of 2020, which is what?
Right before COVID.
Yeah, the month before.
They spent $250 per square feet to upgrade a 300,000 square foot building.
So how much is that?
250 times 300,000 is how much of an upgrade?
The cost.
That's a $75 million investment to do upgrades.
And they did it right.
It's a great building.
It's an incredible.
What's the building's price before all this, Pat?
Now, hang on, I interrupt.
It's a $90 million, let's say, building.
They fixed this thing up.
$300,000 square feet.
Looks amazing.
Beautiful facility.
Gym, you know, what do you call it?
Cafeteria, all this stuff.
It's just a ridiculous setup, right?
The company's nearly a $4 billion company.
To them, $75 million, like, you know, it is money, but it's not like we got to make the upgrade.
Timing is important.
They really started.
That's the problem.
So you signed a contract and COVID hits.
Now, everybody's working from home.
Now, when you go into this facility and you look to the entire building, half the building is empty.
People have been working from home during COVID.
You're sitting there saying, what the hell do we do with this building?
We want to get this thing off our balance sheet.
They don't want this building, nor do they need this building.
Yeah.
Okay.
With where they're at.
Somebody bought them out.
Some 16 17 billion dollar company bought this building out and they're sitting there saying, what do we do now?
This is case study that's happening right now and, by the way, this has happened across the board.
There's another building here down the street, 200 000 square foot building.
Okay, office space.
Just three years ago it was rented 90.
So 200 000 square feet was rented 90.
Okay, it's the Kaplan building.
It's a Kaplan, you know, Kaplan School.
This is their headquarters.
Today it's pretty much empty, and when I tell you empty, i'm like maybe it's rented 25, 50 percent, from 100 percent, you know, 90 to now, 25 to 50 percent.
How are you collecting mortgage payments now?
You're not.
And this is in a market that's attracting businesses.
Meaning we're not talking about San Francisco, right here, this building right here wow, 193 000 square foot building.
Okay, we're not talking about a.
You know, San Francisco or Chicago, or New York or any of those markets cream of the crop, Florida that people are moving to.
Empty buildings class a, beautiful buildings sitting empty on the complete opposite side, industrial buildings where people can do like shipping, like yeah, you know what Amazon does, and some of these other no, those are jam-packed.
Those no no, they're not having a hard time selling industrial buildings.
They don't have a hard time selling.
They don't have a hard time, you know.
They have a hard time buying.
Oh wow, they can't find enough of that.
Got you, tom?
And, by the way, let's paint it, let's draw, let's draw a line.
So those industrial buildings that are being turned into wholesale distribution centers, who are they being turned into?
For Walmart and for Target and, ladies and gentlemen, and Amazon?
Because they're still delivering stuff to your home.
And in certain blue cities are you paying attention?
Your Target just closed.
Yeah, that doesn't mean Target doesn't want to sell you stuff.
It means they couldn't afford to have the public retail open.
And so now they've got distribution stuff because they still want to deliver to you, they still want to sell you stuff at Target.
They're just not going to have smash and grabs and have um employees at risk, so they need commercial workhouse space and they're competing with Walmart and competing with Amazon to go find it.
So that that is a very rich market where they're actually competing and bidding each other up.
And so pat that that um, who was it?
Jamie Dimon said it, where you know your kids are, your grandkids are going to live to 100 years old.
But and then he said, you're going to work three and a half uh days, days a week.
Now, is that because they want you to work from home or is it because the AI is going to be taking your jobs and guess what they're like?
Listen, we don't want to get rid of you completely, but just you'll be there a little bit because robots are basically going to take.
I mean, just think about it crazy.
I, I think i'm one of the only guys in my 40s that still reads a physical newspaper.
Yeah, you know, I actually like reading a physical newspaper.
Yes, when's the last time you saw somebody reading physical?
You're literally I.
I read it sometimes just for nostalgia, just so I want to hold.
Yeah but, but the point is like, newspapers are done.
There used to be a time newspapers were it.
Radio is done, podcast is killing it, right.
Cable tv is about to be destroyed.
Yeah, it may take five to ten years, but they're going to get crushed, right.
Maybe, just maybe the next thing that's going to get destroyed, Maybe commercial real estate in a big way.
Wow.
It may get crushed in a big way if they're going this direction.
Because what will happen is if you can have AI doing a lot of the work, if you can have AI doing a lot of the work, why do I need a big fancy building to be in?
I don't.
Most industries are not going to need it.
Some will.
Most industries are not going to need it.
So they're going to experience their death.
They used to say there was the death of the modern American mall, right?
Like, why the hell do we need all this space, retail shopping?
But what that forced malls to do was get creative.
All right.
So maybe, what are we going to do with all this space?
All right.
So rather than having retail shops galore, let's set up an amusement park.
Let's put a roller skating rink in there.
When you have all this massive amount of property and there's segments of the market like retail, why do you need to go shopping necessarily?
You can just go online.
It just forces you to get more creative.
And Tom, you might know this, but the death of the mall, was that premature?
I don't know how many malls actually closed down.
Do you know that number?
No, I don't know the number, but I know Westfield took it in the chops.
They're a large operator of malls.
And you look at what happened in San Francisco.
You see these horrible pictures on Twitter.
It looks like some dystopian future, you know, weird space thing where the mall is completely desolate and homeless people have moved in there.
So the malls, you know, you've got malls that are still out there operating, but the typical mall has taken a bath.
And I'll tell you something else from the venture side of it, so I'm not going to name any companies, but there is a gold dress of companies out there that take your cell phone and, you know, your friend or your spouse just wear your underwear and you take pictures to the front, back, and side of you, and they give you like a 90% accuracy of fit of clothing because clothing fit and clothing return was one of the first big challenges of e-commerce.
You buy a shirt.
This isn't a medium.
This is too tight, you know, and you couldn't tell.
Well, now you have all these tools that are out there that are going to take away what many people think is the last frontier of the mall, the ability to look at and shop for clothing, that it's going away.
You'll be able to see yourself in the clothing, size yourself in the clothing, and that the death of the mall is coming quickly on a generalized state.
Now, they're in Newport Beach, California.
There's a mall there, Fascist Island, and it's still there.
You know, there's high-dollar communities that still have their malls.
Malls are double.
Have you been in the mall lately, Tom?
It's sad.
This is sort of my point here.
This is sort of what I was studying.
The decline of the American mall has left just 700 still standing.
Soon there may be 150 left.
This is in 2022.
If you scroll down a little bit, Rob, there are just 150 malls left in the United States in 10 years, according to one industry watcher.
That's his speculation.
There are currently around 700 malls in the U.S., down from 2,500 in the 80s.
Malls have suffered as an online salesman.
So here's my hypothesis.
This is just, you know, not a commercial mall expert.
The need for malls was a need for shopping.
That's where you would go get your stuff, your merchandise, your clothes.
You just do some general stuff.
Thanks, buddy.
So that might obviously decrease with the boom of online shopping.
But what we've realized has not decreased is the need for hanging out in public.
Yeah, no, shit.
And the need to be around people and the need to go out and the need to socialize.
And quite frankly, they just need to be around people.
And malls represent that.
They've always represented that.
So you might not be going to the mall anymore to go shopping and do your typical thing, but they might be great.
But those people are paying the rent, right?
That sounds great and all.
But these guys are not running a nonprofit organization.
You're going to have to spend money.
No, but my point is that's why they're going to get creative instead of having retail outlets.
Like there's some malls that are opening up amusement parks or they're opening up big movie theater type situations or things that people will congregate.
They got to get really creative though.
That's my point.
They got to get really, really creative.
We could dive into this deep, and I know Pat's got other stories here, but I'm going to give you two quick points if I could, Pat, real quick.
You're going to see innovation and venture capital out there.
Think of these guys.
This is one of many companies that's doing this.
They convert vacant office buildings into housing, into 900 square foot apartments, mini apartments and things like this.
They do that, number one.
And then number two, you're seeing things such as it was on my case study.
I'm not pimping for the company, Pat, but you're going to see many companies like Free Range Concepts in Dallas, which is this guy that owns three different restaurants.
One is called The Rustic that actually has a music and open air area behind the restaurant.
To your exact point, I don't just go to the restaurant.
I want to sit with my friends.
And the malls are not going to offer a nonprofit for you to sit around the food court at the mall and chat for each other.
But restaurants are doing that.
He also has a restaurant that's almost like a Chili's, but it caters to people with dogs.
And there's this big area in the center where you can actually walk your dog.
So what's happening is the need for community is being met in other ways by entrepreneurs because you're exactly right.
Where do we go to hang out together?
Hey, there's my friend from high school.
He was walking the other way in the mall and he just bought a pair of jeans and I would see him and talk to him.
And that need in our humanness is still there, but it's not going to be at the malls.
And I see things happening with innovative restaurant concepts and other things to meet the human need.
Tom, have you ever been to the Mall of Americas in Minneapolis, Minnesota?
No, I've never been there, but it was like the people would say, if God had a mall in heaven, it would look like this.
And that's my point, Rob.
I don't know if you can find some images.
This is the big, I think the biggest mall in the country, maybe the world's biggest.
But you go there, and what they've done is they've innovated.
So this is what's going on in the mall.
You got full-on amusement parks in the mall.
So for maybe you're not going to Abercrombie and Fitch over here, but you're going to their version of Disneyland in your local mall.
And that's kind of what I'm saying.
You got to get creative.
Maybe you don't go to Davenbusters anymore.
You go to the mall or something like that.
Yeah, you make a point, but again, this is, there's only one, you know, the malls of America.
There's only one of that.
It's a very big investment for them to make.
Some of them, it depends on the market you're in.
Is it going to work?
Is it not going to work?
But the business model is going away.
So the business model of commercial real estate may be going away unless if companies find ways to get people, like for me, I'm always going to be an in-office guy.
I'm always going to be that guy.
I'm running companies.
I think cultural people got to be around each other, right, to do that.
But we have the predictive, you know, AI guys that are typically quiet guys that want to be by themselves.
They don't have to be in a building.
They actually don't want to be around a lot of other people sometimes.
They have a different wiring on where they want to be.
To that world, things are going to change a lot.
So this commercial real estate deal on what direction it's going to go the next six, 12, 18 months, it may be as permanent as newspapers.
Just maybe.
Maybe.
We don't know yet.
It just may be.
But let's go to the next story.
So check this out.
Bad policies have consequences.
How bad?
To the point where Starbucks closed down seven of them in downtown San Francisco due to bad policies.
Let me read this to you.
This is a Fox business story.
Starbucks is closing seven downtown San Francisco stores, including locations at Mission and Maine, Gary and Taylor pickups only, Fort and Market, Bush and Van Ness with closures effective October 22nd.
Starbucks Regional Vice President for Northern California, Jessica Borton, explained there are several factors Starbucks considered before when tasked with the tough decision of closing a store, but it is all part of ensuring a healthy store portfolio.
Employees at the stores marked for closure will be offered transfer opportunities to nearby locations.
Borton assured transfer opportunities are available and will be offered to each impacted partner.
We remain committed to continuing dialogue and support.
Okay, so seven Starbucks in San Francisco.
That's a lot, Pat.
That's a lot.
That's a lot for downtown.
That's that is insane.
And you're not just talking about anywhere.
You're talking about in San Fran that's a business hub.
Yeah.
That there's executives running around, that they want to have their coffee in the morning.
You know, they may want to get a coffee at lunch.
Shutting down seven of them.
Tom, go for it.
Those are not the slum areas.
And, you know, Vinny, they need to call their congressman.
Yep.
Oh, yeah.
Well, you know what sucks, Tom?
She just had to vacate.
She had to shut down her office.
But she got evicted?
Yeah, so there's a lot of San Francisco evictions going on.
Pelosi?
Pelosi's gone.
She's gone.
You know her attitude.
Does she have anything to do with the policies at the end of that?
Yeah, it's really, really weird, but nobody brings it up.
But you know, she said this eviction is a sharp departure from tradition.
But what do you think about it, Tom?
I think it's pretty freaking ironic that the princess of bad policy is actually the same week it's evicted from her office for other reasons.
But hey, look, Vinny, what have we been seeing in terms of a business's clothing and like Macy's closing and North Trump's clothing?
And a lot of the people who are in the middle of the mall, the flagship mall that was down there, and a Moscone Center, anchor stores, they call it.
Anchor stores.
And I think this is where you're going with all the crime and everything where when the bad policy is a nuisance to everybody that they go, hey, listen, you could go in there and you could steal, but if it's under a thousand, you're good.
That's inviting people to come in to destroy the business, to shut it down, Pat, so that only places like Amazon and all these places thrive.
It's not an accidental thing.
I think they're doing it on purpose.
Because once, think about it, Pat.
I just saw a thing where seven on Rodeo Drive in Beverly Hills, all Saints.
All these huge stores are shutting down because people don't want to do that business anyway.
Smash and grabs.
Smash and grabs.
And they're saying, by the way, why we even, by the way, this holiday season, if you have a girlfriend, why the hell would you go and buy her $1,000 or anything?
Put on the mask, go inside of a home.
No, I'm being dead serious.
You're not going to go to jail.
Why?
Why?
Like, baby, what do you want?
Okay, put on the mask and go break it.
That's what I would do.
That's how much I love you, baby.
I'm willing to not go to jail for you.
Can you imagine that?
Baby, that's me.
She's like, that's not you.
I'm like, look.
Look at my traps.
Those are my traps.
Look at my back.
You know who this is on, though.
This is on your favorite word, Vinny.
The constituents.
The constituents.
Listen, if this is what you want, you want more of this.
If you're in San Francisco, this is Pat.
What do you say?
This is what you want.
Decisions and actions have consequences.
It's just which ones you're going to get.
But here's my question to you guys.
Why?
Remember how you always say follow the money at them?
Why are they letting this happen?
This isn't just accident because when you ask them, they act like it's not a problem.
It's not a problem, Pat.
Why?
I'm just curious.
Again, the best part about say, you know, your ex says, you will never turn into anything.
You're a loser.
Yeah.
You'll never be anything without me.
Yeah.
Okay.
Guess what?
We're going to find out in 10 years whether she's right or wrong.
Yeah.
Right?
Yeah.
You know what I'm saying?
You're working out of place.
You guys will never make it without me.
This company lost a great employee without me.
I don't know.
Okay.
Maybe you're right.
Maybe you're wrong.
10 years.
We're going to tell.
These are the best policies.
How dare you come to our city?
We welcome you, New York.
Yeah.
We welcome.
We will treat you.
Doors are wider.
We have hotels.
We have locations.
We have to make it very clear that you can no longer come to New York City because we are done.
We can't do it.
Bad policies.
It takes.
By the way, did you see what happened with Chicago?
So Chicago, did you see the protesting?
The folks in Chicago had over this gym, type Chicago gym, okay?
Just type in Chicago gym and look what's going on over there, the protesting going on, the gym.
You'll get right there.
If you can turn that on, so they want to use this gym in Chicago.
You can press play so people can see.
For migrants?
Yeah.
For migrants.
And locals are saying, dude, what are you talking about?
This is ours.
You work for us.
This is Chicago.
You can pause it.
This is a hardcore liberal city that's sitting there saying, why are you turning our gym for our kids for migrants?
But by the way.
Everybody's in that audience too.
Those of you that are listening to the podcast on audio, that audience is very diverse.
Everybody's in that room.
This isn't one large.
Here's the problem, though.
90% of them voted for exactly what they're getting.
And guess what?
And they'll vote for them again.
Yeah, they vote for them again.
So you can scream all you want and vote any differently.
You're going to get the same exact thing you're going to get.
So the best part about time and bad policies is time will reveal everything.
We're in Florida because this guy's policies were great policies.
DeSantis had phenomenal policies during COVID.
People left California and Chicago and New York because of bad policies.
But it took time to know whose policies were good or bad.
The only thing I'll add to this is what issued concerns you the most as a voter, right?
So a lot of people are single-issue voters or they pay attention to more personality than policies.
I would argue that most people aren't really tracking the policies of certain people.
They're just like, they look on the screen.
Ah, you know, most people, 40%, 42%, 45%, just see an R or see a D, and they just go in that way.
Boom.
Most people aren't sort of diving into the policies.
What's my point?
You know, James Carvos under Clinton said, what's the biggest issue for voters?
Well, it's the economy, stupid.
So for most people, it is your paycheck.
But for other people, you know, it's health care or it's abortion or it's minimum wage, like in San Francisco, the fight for 15.
Now they want to raise it to 20, whatever it is.
So maybe that's your biggest issue, right?
Or maybe it's immigration at some point.
But what I would recommend for most people, if you are open-minded, is really take the congressperson or who you're voting for at face value, delve into their specific policies and not just what you typically vote for.
Sort of see what times have changed.
We talk about disruption.
We talk about the mall.
We talk about crypto.
We talk about AI.
Things have changed so astronomically fast that maybe what you were politically a few years ago, who you voted for a few years ago, isn't exactly where you're at today.
And like you take that look at the people in Chicago, they're basically like, enough's enough.
And maybe those are the people that will change this vote.
But going off what Pat said, and Pat, and we both, we agreed on it, it's like all this, Adam, all this disaster, all this chaos, they're still going to vote for the same people in the same party.
And it's almost like, what's that syndrome, Tom, where the Stockholm syndrome?
Stockholm syndrome.
The girls getting kidnapped, you start to actually like your kidnappers as long as they're not abusing you.
The Democrat, I mean, just, I'm sorry, it's not that it's a Democrat, Republican thing.
People like that have Americans have Stockholm syndrome when it comes to the people because they're like, listen, they're abusing me.
They're shitting all over me, but I can't give up on these people.
You're absolutely right.
This is why Pat was, I think, so correct is that he thinks that bluer cities or specific bluer states are going to get bluer and redder cities and redder states are going to get redder because your vibe attracts your tribe, you know, they say.
So some people are like, yeah, we want immigration for everywhere.
We want minimum wage for everyone.
We want that.
And then some people are like, dude, like how many people you meet, dude, I left California because it was ridiculous.
The prices, the gas, Gavin News.
You know what this is?
And some people said, I'm voting for that guy again.
No shit.
So check this out.
Watch this.
Watch this here.
This is a Hill story.
GOP holds biggest lead on economy since 1991.
This is Gallup.
Oh, damn.
GOP holds biggest lead.
Rob, can you pull up this story here?
GOP holds biggest lead on economy since 1991.
Gallup.
According to a Gallup poll, 53% of respondents trust the Republican Party more to ensure country's prosperity in the coming years compared to 39%.
Look at the chart right there, by the way.
Oh, damn.
This is the highest ever.
Rob, go a little bit higher so we can see the timeline on the bottom.
Go a little higher.
Okay, right there.
No difference.
So check this out right there.
Look at that.
1990s.
Look how high the blue was and how low the red was.
Oh, my God.
Okay, is that the 60s?
Okay, 56.
Look how high the blue is versus red.
So then red has come up, and look where blue's at now.
People are like, we're sorry, man.
The blue economic policy is just not.
This is this gap.
The 14-point advantage is the widest gap on the question since mid-1991.
It almost is up from the 10-point gap from last year, is where it said when you look at this number.
The survey revealed that 57% of those polled trust Republicans more to protect their country from international terrorism and military threats, in contrast to 35% who trust Democrats.
This trust gap is one of the largest since question was introduced in 2002.
Despite these leads, both parties still face public dissatisfaction with 56% viewing the GOP unfavorably and 58% viewing the Democrats unfavorably.
Additionally, 44% believe the Republican Party is better equipped to handle problems as they rise, while only 36% feel the same about the Democratic Party.
Again, this is the Gallup poll.
Gallup is not left-right-middle.
It's Gallup.
Gallup.
They're pretty credible.
That little jump, the purple line that was on there at the bottom, people have no left shit.
No, no, the people that have no opinion has dropped to nothing, which means everybody has an opinion.
And they're all in.
As we've gone from 2020 to 2023 and things have gotten a little tougher, everybody's in with that, which they should.
And that jump right there looks like the Nikki Haley jump.
Go vote over the Santa.
Have an opinion.
Go vote.
This was sort of the point that I was making: that it's, as Pat says, it's woken up the people that you don't want to wake up.
Listen, I'm just going through life.
I'm not paying attention to this kind of stuff.
You're like, hold on, what?
What's going on?
But kind of, look, I don't want to rock the boat here.
Kind of exactly what we talked about with Ann Coulter yesterday.
By all metrics, Republicans are up big.
Put Trump aside, right?
Because that's a whole anomaly, whether you like him, hate him, you know, all that.
Put Trump aside.
Just the Republican brand seems a lot more sane than the Democratic brand these days.
As you can see in the results, by all metrics, especially in the economy, if you just put a blank name, blank face, Republicans are up in national polls.
But Republicans are like, hold my beer.
Let's kick out the House majority leader.
Let's cause chaos.
We saw what Steve Bennon said yesterday.
Be as crazy as possible.
So that's kind of my point is that Republicans, you know, what I will say, Democratic policy typically not as, let's just say, good, but their marketing is way better than the Republicans.
There's no question about that.
There's no question about that.
And basically, we were just talking about this crisis with immigration, but you can connect the dots really, really fast.
All those immigrants were supposed to stay in red states like Texas and Arizona and Florida and turn them purple, then blue over time.
Except the federal government put a lot of those people on buses to those blue cities.
And so you get what you vote for, which leads to people on this chart.
I got feelings.
Let me say this.
Did he say I got feelings?
No, I've got a feeling.
Feeling.
It's not.
It's got this little tinge coming up my head.
So you know what this does say, though?
Here's a part that you got to think about.
Common sense prevails.
Time prevails.
Unfortunately, sometimes people take way too long to get it.
That's the problem.
People take way when somebody says there's nothing wrong with an 8, 9, 10, 11-year-old.
You know, when these people are saying it's okay for them to transition.
Oh, yeah.
Oh, yeah, yeah, it's totally fine.
Yeah.
Like the common sense person sister and says, what are you talking about?
Yeah.
But the people that are like, wow, maybe they're right.
Right.
Yeah.
Who are they?
And then those guys 10 years later, 20 years later, say, shit, that was a terrible idea.
But common sense eventually prevails.
It does.
Sometimes it's at a cost of a great country.
I want to go to another story here with Trevor Bauer.
So Trevor Bauer was a Cy Young winner, 32-year-old pitcher, Cy Young winner, getting ready to get his $200 million contract that he was going to get.
Incredible pitcher he is.
Studs.
Stud-up studs.
He's doing a great.
He's doing great stuff in baseball.
And then all of a sudden, this guy's a little bit loud.
Baseball doesn't like him.
MLB doesn't like him.
He talks trash.
He would call the Cy Young Award when he won.
What did he call it?
The Mickey Mouse Council.
Mickey Mouse Cy Young Award.
The Mickey Mouse Cy Young Award.
And he wore Mickey Mouse shirts with Cy Young.
He would vlog while playing for major leagues.
I love that.
He was a blogger, YouTuber, while playing for the major leagues.
He's a professional poker, and I don't mean cards.
In many ways, yes.
In many ways, Trevor Bauer's accuser, Trevor Bauer's accuser, Lindsey Hall, opens up on text and video claims.
Lindsey Hill, who accused Trevor Bauer of sexual assault, responded to Bauer's video sharing text messages and a video to support his innocence.
She explained that some of her text messages, including one that read, next victim, star pitcher for Dodgers, were sarcastic and taken out of context.
She also mentioned that her use of the word victim was inappropriate, but I meant in a serious context.
I mean, I just ruined the guy's life for two years.
What's the big deal?
Hill discuss a video Bauer shared in which she appeared to be smiling after the alleged assault.
She clarified that her emotions were complex at the time, and the video was sent to her cousin to show that everything was okay.
She explained that bruises from such incidents can take time to appear and mention possessing selfies that demonstrate physical injuries.
Can you play the video of Trevor Bauer, by the way?
Can you just play the clip?
I want you to actually play the clip of Bauer from the beginning.
Watch this here.
By the way, this guy is playing in Japan now because Major League Baseball suspended him for whatever the number of game was.
Then they lowered it to 50 games.
101?
194 games.
He lost $37 million.
By the way, he didn't lose $37 million, guys.
During that time, he was at his peak of his career.
He was about to get a $200 million bag is what he was going to get that they took away from him.
But play this clip here.
Go for it.
Next victim, star pitcher for the moment.
This is her texting.
Okay.
She asked another in reference to visiting my house for the first time.
The answer, take his money.
So how might that work?
I'm going to his house Wednesday, she said.
I already have my hooks.
You know how I roll.
Then after the first time we met, net worth is 51 mil, she said.
Bitch, you better secure the bag, was the response.
But how is she going to do that?
Need daddy to choke me out, she said.
Being an absolute whore to try to get in on his 51 million.
Wow.
Read another text.
Then after the second time we met, former Padres pitcher Jacob Nix told her, you got to get this bag.
I'll give you 50,000, Lindsay replied.
Her AA sponsor asked her at one point, do you feel a tiny bit guilty?
Not really, she replied.
Since then, her legal team has approached me multiple times about coming to a financial settlement.
But as I have done since day one, I refuse to pay her even a single cent.
Good boy.
In August of 2021, Lindsay Hill's claims were heard in court.
And during those legal proceedings, critical information was deliberately and unlawfully concealed from me and my legal team.
Information like this video, which was taken by Lindsay Hill herself the morning after she claimed she was brutally attacked, emotionally traumatized, and desperate to get away from me.
And now we have the metadata, so there can be no dispute.
It was taken mere minutes before she left my house on the morning of May 16th, 2021.
Idiot.
Without my knowledge or consent, of course.
In it, you can see her lying in bed next to me while I'm sleeping, smirking at the camera without a care in the world, or any marks on her face.
I think it paints a pretty clear picture of what actually happened the evening of May 15th and why the video was originally concealed from us.
Yeah.
After hearing the evidence of the past.
by the way, she gets confronted by, did you see this when she's getting confronted Rob, do you have that video?
She gets confronted on a podcast and a lady says, you texted this, you said this, you said that, you said this.
How do you feel about it now?
Well, you know, it's all being taken out of context.
It's not really true and it's not really this and it's not really that.
You're supposed to believe all women, though, Pat.
So you have to believe her.
She's getting paid 500 to 5,000 to be on these podcasts, ladies and gentlemen.
She is a witness for hire right now.
How do you know she's getting paid that kind of money?
Because she needs money.
She's freaking broke.
And people get paid to be on podcasts.
And by the way, she's getting paid.
She's getting paid $500.
She's not going on a podcast for nothing.
Well, she also got a $300,000 settlement from the insurance company and through her lawyers after this was cleared.
Which was her excuse.
This was going to her lawyers.
This is her acting up drunk at an event just to watch this here.
Go for it.
Same girl.
Oh, she's an evil.
Look at that hate.
Oh, she's an angry hero.
Beyond side.
I don't get that.
Metro's coming.
I want to make sure.
She's drinking the blood light.
It all makes sense.
She's all bloodlight, Pat.
Perfect.
Forget it.
She's drinking that demon juice.
The official beer of cheat, of cleat, chaser.
She's bringing that demon juice, brother.
Look, you know, Shamela Anderson over here now.
Like, this is actually, there's so many different ways we can go with this situation.
You know, the height of 2017, 2018, the Me Too movement, Harvey Weinstein, we get it.
That was actually true.
Right.
And he was held accountable for that.
So was someone like Bill Cosby.
Less moonbed.
Less moonbay.
We all know what happened.
So there's men out there.
They're like, what the hell is going on?
Because you see what's going on out there where men, you know, they're being called gropers or certain other words or grapists just because they want to go talk to women in public.
Some breaking story on TikTok.
Some guy just tried to approach a girl at the gym.
She's like, he's assaulting me.
He's like, I just said, what's up?
But here's on the surface, obviously men see something like this.
I'm like, this is ridiculous.
But I think going deeper, who should be the most upset are actually women.
Because if you put aside these nonsensical, fabricated, manufactured stories, there actually are real stories about women that deal with issues.
And what happens when these women full on lie is now it's the pendulum has swung the complete opposite way to the whole believe all women is now it's the boy who cried wolf syndrome or the girl who cried wolf syndrome.
And they're like, yeah, how do we know this is true?
True victims of the money.
So we've seen what's happened.
Here's my point.
We've seen what's happened.
Well, it turns out Amber Heard was a freaking liar.
And she actually has to pay $8 million to Johnny Depp for defamation.
Turns out, you know, Russell Brand, we'll see what happens with him.
Probably fake news type of thing.
Turns out, Andrew Tate, Tristan Tate.
Yeah, it turns out these allegations, they don't really have any evidence.
It turns out I've done several of these things on my show, The Sawscast, where they literally show a woman on a podcast.
She's like a famous rapper, not Cardi B. We'll get that in a second, who literally said her boyfriend was being mean or whatever, and she thought he was cheating.
So what did she do?
She called DCF on him, Department of Child and Family Services, and said that he was abusing his kids.
And done.
And on camera, admitted, this is actually on Adam 22, I believe.
They took their kid?
She said, I full-on lied, and I got him back.
Sorry about that.
I'm young.
But I'm passionate.
You're passionate.
But what's my point is that accountability needs to happen for these women.
For all the guys that did wrong stuff.
You're talking about the Harvey Weinsteins of the world and Bill Cousyload.
Where's the accountability for the ladies that have lied to you?
Watch this video.
Just play this short clip.
It's a longer interview, but just watch this 15-second clip.
That's a great question.
It's a really, really valid question.
I think that's a really good question.
How I phrased it.
I think it's a super valid question.
Everything you're asking me is a super valid question.
I agree.
That's why I'm asking.
Again, super valid.
You know what?
That's something my lawyers would have to answer.
By the way, it's embarrassing.
Everything she asks.
He's like, so why would you text him this?
You know you were doing this.
You were trying to get the money.
Do you realize what you did to him?
Oh, it's a valid question.
It's a valid question.
It's a super valid question.
It's a good question.
So to point out what Trevor Bowers does.
Okay, sounds good.
Trevor Brown's right.
Okay, cool.
Now, he's in Japan.
Yeah.
Okay.
He's big in Japan right now.
Okay.
They love him.
He's the tallest.
The tallest guy there.
He's a novel big girl.
They love him in Japan.
He's a foreign player over there.
They love him in Japan, but tell me the greatest Japanese hitter of all time and how many hits and home runs does he have?
Suzuki, Satter Hoover.
Oh.
Okay.
Of course, Tom knows it.
Is that who it is?
Yeah.
What about the guy?
Rob, help me out here.
No, no.
Rob's not going to help you out.
The point is, what's the most home run someone hit in Japanese league?
I think O-O-H almost got to Babe Ruth.
How many home runs did he hit?
But how many home runs did Roger Marris hit here?
61 for his records.
How many did Babe hit in a season?
74.
No, season was 7 career.
What's the most Barry Bonds hit?
74, I believe.
What did Barry Bonds and what did Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa do?
It was a race to 70.
70 and 66.
I see where you're going here.
Yeah, nobody knows what you're saying.
What the hell do you know about Japanese?
This guy's an American guy.
He wants a legacy in America, not in Japan.
So this guy wants that here.
So now, Dodgers, are you going to tweet out an apology for jumping the MLB?
Are you going to put an apology for what you did to this guy?
Are you going to do that?
No.
Because this whole concept, you know, half my frustration yesterday was, you know, when we're having this conversation with this guy about Trevor Bauer, is this notion of guilty until proven innocent.
You destroyed the guy's life.
How about innocent until proven guilty?
You suspended the guy based on allegations the girl made that were wrong.
And now what?
Great point.
His legacy, his name, because I don't care, because we talked about this the other day, Pat, unusual suspects.
The average person like this, they're not doing the research that you're doing.
Right now, the average person that sees him and they see his name, you know what they're going to say?
Rapist, abuser, beater gospel.
That's it.
It's perfect.
For the rest of his life.
That's right.
How much do you think he's going to sue, Pat?
Because he's going to go after everybody.
Yeah, but it doesn't matter, even if he does.
I mean, this is part of the problem.
Who's the screw you're talking about?
Is this the girl you're talking about?
There's nothing worse in this world than being wrongfully accused of something you didn't do.
So, Trevor Bauer, I feel for you, brother.
I mean, are you kidding me with this?
Especially after the fact, what's going on here?
Like, you see these things going on where, you know, breaking news, man released from prison after being wrongfully accused of it.
40 years for 28 years.
And they give him a check for $1.2 million.
Well, here's this girl that I'm talking about.
So there's a guy at the end of the story who had his kids taken away.
But let's not worry about that.
What are we going to do with her?
Are we throwing her in jail?
But she actively full-on lied.
Watch this podcast.
She is in no danger of ever writing a Nobel Prize exception.
She's on this one.
I call child services on my eggs.
Demon.
Because he pissed me off.
And then I was like, yeah, I'm done with this person, whatever.
Like, you know, cheater, fucking piece of shit, liesable dumb shit.
I called child services on his ass and got him.
I like fabricated everything and like censored things and they like went to the door and like there was a whole process.
Like, I don't even know if the children's aid worker still visits them, but she probably does because of what I said.
Like the way I AI'd that shit, you know, like real AI shit, like.
Fake bruises type shit.
By the way, if you go to if you go to hell, she's at administration.
Obviously, the guy interviewing her won't even be seen on the face.
She'll fake, but she'll sew anything.
But ladies, this is my point.
Dummy.
It's like, why do should women, why should men actually have respect for women who are willing to do this?
Like, we've seen Cardi B come out and say, yes, I drug.
Before I was a famous rapper, I was a full-on stripper.
I would go to drug house, drug them, steal their shit, jack them.
If a guy did that, he would be held what?
Accountable.
Women can just go on podcasts, admit to getting guys' kids taken away from them and joke about it.
Hey, add that shit.
Where's the accountability?
You don't want to sue anybody of that start to cut you off, Tom?
Anybody, any rich, successful, famous men, this is a lesson to be learned.
You cannot be hooking up one night since Rob, Rob, you talked about this too, right?
What did she say about the sexual experience?
She wanted the hair.
It was insane, right?
About the text message.
She needs to choke me out.
Yeah, she was saying, I want all the pain.
Daddy needs to choke me out.
I mean, they're very, very favorable.
But my point being, Pat, if you're like Pat, if you were single and you had no kids and you're out there, by the way, he's out there, he's doing this thing.
You not only have to have contracts, you have to have a camera, you have to have, hey, what's your Sarah?
We're hooking up, right?
It's cool if I pull your hair and choke yo.
It's to that point.
So I'm not blaming him, but at the same token, you're this guy.
You're in the public eye.
The demons are out looking for you in these moments.
The only thing I'm happy about about this story is, though, Tom, you think that chick will ever bang a guy with money?
She's going to be banging dudes from Walmart.
Let me tell you.
Left and right.
Unfortunately, I think you're wrong.
Because I think that a girl who's hot enough will find some.
She's not that hot enough.
She's not that hot.
Whether it's her.
She's Walmart hot.
Yeah.
Rob, you'd see her.
There's a blueprint and there's a game plan for these types of girls.
And if they're not held accountable, we'll see what happens.
I've been around guys, big-time dudes.
They literally make girls sign NDAs before they even walk in the house.
Hell yeah.
Literally, before you walk into this house party, sign this form right here.
I agree that nothing, no, no, no.
Pat, you've done a whole video where guys have to be like, so, hey, what's up?
Me and Mary right here.
We about to do our 100%.
That sucks.
But if you're that dude, a Trevor Bauer has $200 million on the line, using a sports reference, you can play offense.
You got to play some defense.
You got to have a police officer.
We could go on this for a long time this morning because there's three topics here I'm going to bring up really, really fast.
The first is we're living in a world where we have the politicization of basically the criminal justice system.
And the Pasadena Police Department, I'm going to stay away from everything we're talking about here to my second point.
The Pasadena Police Department sat on this stuff.
When Trevor Bauer said metadata, he was talking about text messages that the Pasadena Police Department got because they gave a subpoena to AT ⁇ T and Verizon and they got the real text messages.
Your phone, erase it from your phone.
It's in the servers at the wireless carrier, your mobile provider.
They had all of it and they sat on it.
And do you remember how long the Pasadena Police Department sat on it and didn't file charges, did not file charges.
They never filed a criminal charge against this guy and they dropped it.
They were waiting for it to come out of the news.
They were feeling pressure that if they went out and basically said there's nothing to see here, we're not going to prosecute, that the political machine was going to come down on the DA and the DA, the prosecutor in Pasadena was scared squatless to say, you know, nothing to see here because they had the video and they had all this stuff.
So we're living in a political realm.
And the second is, let me tell you, you know, when you live in a hookup culture, there's consequences.
Every college in America is doing orientation for their male athletes.
And there's a phrase that's on those because I've seen some of the PowerPoints.
It's called cleat chasers.
And they say, hey, you're going to find some girls that are perfectly good.
How's that?
Girlfriend?
How's that?
Cleat?
Cleat, like cleats.
Oh, okay.
We thought you were getting freaky.
They're also called jersey jumpers and they're all so-called.
And they use phrases that are not sexist, but they're saying, hey, what we're talking about here, it's not an anti-woman word.
It's just a description of people that want to chase you around and be with you and be part of the party.
And in the middle of that, there may be girlfriends, but there may be some very bad actors that are in the middle of the crowd.
It's, hey, I'm a big athlete.
I got all this stuff going on.
I'm living in a hookup culture here at university of whatever.
And you've got the university now that's warning these guys, hey, you know what?
You need to be careful about this because we will cut you.
We will drop you.
And it's about to get worse on campus.
My third point, because of NIL, name, image, likeness.
You now have college kids that are going to have real money in their pocket, and it's about to come down a level to less mature men who are going to get attacked like Trevor Bauer did because you're going to be a college player with a $2 million contract.
And by the way, my last point so we can go on because Pat's got the next topic.
What did they tell you in the military when you went out?
Not clubbing, not going to New York because you have military dollars.
15.
Say it again.
15 will get you 20.
And always have who with you?
Always have a buddy.
Ranger buddy.
Yeah.
A witness.
What was Rob?
You were about to say something?
Just real quick, the timeline of this, Pat, and Tom brought it up.
The Pasadena Police Department declined to press charges against Trevor Bauer.
The Los Angeles County District Attorney's Office also declined to press charges against him.
The judge who issued the restraining order lifted the restraining order, citing that he honored the woman's wishes in regards to rough sex.
He didn't go past the boundaries.
And despite all of that, Major League Baseball still decided to suspend him for 324 games.
It's called the foot-dragging suspension.
The biggest suspension in Major League Baseball history because they dragged their feet.
And you know what's scary?
Thank God this guy has money.
Could you imagine the guys that are out there, Pat?
And Johnny Dapp had money.
Yeah.
But yeah, but think about the average guy that's like, I got freaky.
What?
She wanted me to jail 20 years.
My last point is if you read Musk's book, if you read my brother, first of all, whatever, guys, do whatever you can.
Go read his second book while he rises.
Second wife was crazy training.
Yeah.
If you read his book, you'll see what Kimball talks about Amber Heard, Kimball's brother, what his family says about Amber Heard.
You're going to learn more about Amber Heard in this book.
Oh, great.
Then the documentary?
Oh, because it's going to be on the inside, what his insiders thought of her.
That's what you have to read.
Go forward.
Let's wrap it up, guys.
30 seconds on the stop and go.
Here's my last point.
Just how Harvey Weinstein or Bill Cosby are the poster child, the face of men who do this to women, right?
Because that is a real thing.
Proven guilty, those guys.
Right.
Proven guilty.
Women who do this, whether it's Cardi B, whether it's Amber Heard to a certain extent, they need to be the poster child, the face and held accountable for what they've done wrong to men.
So maybe.
Making them go to jail for 20 years.
That's my point.
Like, women need to learn a lesson.
You lie about this kind of stuff.
You get some dude's kids taken away.
You lie about getting choked out and abused, but it turns out you were into it just to steal $50 million.
When they go to jail, when this girl, whatever her freaking name is, Lindsay Hill, goes to jail, then women will be like, oh shit, you know that playbook?
Yeah, maybe let's not use that this time.
Especially right now, you got proof.
Everything can be shown and traced right now.
You can BS today.
People are going to see the text messages, the WhatsApp, all of that stuff.
Let's go to the next story.
Next, one final comment.
No, I'm not doing it, Tom.
We're going to go to the next story because everybody's giving their last comment.
15.
Next story.
All right.
So, next story we want to get to is: do we want to do water crisis or adults shouting at children?
Let's do adults shouting at children.
Okay.
So, check this out, folks.
You're going to lose your mind and you're actually going to go zero to angry in less than one minute.
Ready?
So, check this out.
CNN.
Pull up the story.
Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual abuse.
Let me read this to you one more time, folks.
Please just hear me out.
CNN story written by Icy Ronald, Tuesday, the 3rd of October, 2023, at 5:06 p.m.
Adults shouting at children can be as harmful to a child's development as sexual abuse or physical abuse or physical abuse.
A new study published in childhood abuse neglect studies shows that adults shouting, denigrating, or verbally threatening children can be as damaging to their development as physical or sexual abuse.
The study which viewed reviewed earlier studied calls for childhood verbal abuse to be recognized as a distinct category of maltreatment to facilitate prevention efforts.
Childhood verbal abuse, classified as a subtype of emotional abuse, can have lifelong negative consequences, including mental distress, externalizing symptoms like criminal behavior or substance abuse, and physical health issues such as obesity or lung cancer.
The study underscores the importance of acknowledging and addressing the impact of verbal abuse on children.
Not single mother, you know, no father in the household.
Not teaching LGBTQ in school, not that stuff.
No, that's totally fine.
It doesn't at all mess with the kids at all.
God forbid a mother raises her voice on kids.
It could be as worse, more harmful than sexual abuse.
Tom, as a parent, how do you read this story as a parent?
What do you think about this nonsense here?
You know what?
Here's what I think about it.
It's ludicrous.
Your child walks across the kitchen and you go, don't touch that hot stove.
And your wife says to you, great.
Now he's gay.
She's like, what are you going?
It's like, God, I mean, I think it's horrifying.
Now, you may, I've raised my voice to my girls.
Absolutely have raised my voice.
Usually when they were, you know, giving an argument and, you know, thought maybe they could tell me something four times in a row, seeing if I'll finally believe it's true.
You know, every parent has that.
And I've raised my voice.
Stop.
We're not doing that.
Sit down.
We're having a talk here.
And so, but it's not yelling.
I think there's a on the concept of yelling, there's a difference between yelling and belittling and just destroying your kids' self-confidence and then being a parent and raising up the volume that says, Look, this is serious.
You're not going to lie to me because if you're lying to me here, you're going to be lying to your school teacher.
School teachers after school, there's a slippery slope here.
And we're going to talk about integrity and telling the truth and being honest.
That's not yelling.
That is correction.
That is processing with your kids.
But there is like drunk parent yelling and belittling, but does it lead to being as damaging as, you know, Father Fellacio was basically abusing you for 10 years at the local parish?
I don't think so.
I'll add this, man.
There's levels to this.
Okay.
I think we can all agree.
Sexual abuse, zero.
Period.
Zero tolerance for that whatsoever.
It's like, how are you even comparing it to physical or verbal?
Verbal is absolutely asinine, okay?
Physical abuse, there's levels to that.
Like, you know, I've been open on this.
I had a very rough relationship with my father.
Like, he was very quick to take the belt out, put it that way.
But sometimes the kid does need a little, what do you call it?
A little pow pow?
Little pow pow.
I get it.
There's levels to that too.
There's full-on abuse of a kid, but then there's like, all right, like, I used to get my mouth washed out with soap.
Didn't really work because I'm still out here cursing on airline.
Got to work on that.
But there's levels to this.
When it comes to verbal abuse, I mean, there's levels to that too.
Tom hit the nail on the head where he said, look, if you're just berating someone and telling them to lose, all right.
Like, you know, I don't have kids, but I'm very active in my nephew's life.
I was a teacher.
I was a cam counselor.
I've been around kids.
Believe me, as a teacher or as dealing with kids, you're going to raise your voice.
Of course.
Okay.
I'm very cool.
My nephew's like my best friend.
I love that kid.
He's 10 years old.
The other day, he's riding his bike in the street.
I go, get out of the fucking street.
Because sometimes you have to raise your goddamn voice.
Did you say that?
He was like, wait, he got, you raped me.
He got so shook because I don't talk about it.
I feel so dirty.
He got so shook because I yelled and I never yell at this kid, but I had to emphasize my point.
Bro, you're riding your bike way too close to the street.
You freaking idiot.
Get out of the street.
Now, why don't I want you to do that?
Because I love you and I want you to be alive.
So to bring this all in, sexual, are you freaking kidding me, CNN?
It's not even comparable.
Yeah, by the way, it's pretty embarrassing to have the brand.
Like if some blog wrote this, okay, whatever.
The brand.
CNN is okay with this being written.
Of course they are.
Of course they are.
And it's CNN health, by the way.
Yeah.
Yeah, just to kind of like, they're so worried about your health.
Think about it for the next time.
And then you guys think about it, Pat.
We were disciplined.
And guess what?
I think you turned out pretty good.
The pawpaws work And if you think about it If you can't discipline If you can't discipline Pawpaw Yeah.
If you can't discipline the kids, then the kids can do whatever they want because they know that there's no consequences.
And when there's no consequences, Pat, they can do whatever they want.
They could break and steal shit.
They could say, you know what?
I want to chop my crotch off, dad.
And what are you going to do?
You're going to hit me?
You can't say none of that.
And that leads Pat to like to bigger pictures and bigger problems, which we have right now with, you know, them pushing the agendas on the kids and the LGBTQ, all the children's stuff, which is a whole different video.
Yeah, because I was just going to say, and Pat, yeah, please, Pat, because this, this goes to my point.
Look at this trickle-down effect.
And some people are like, oh, Vinny's crazy.
No, no, I'm not connecting dots.
The dots are right in front of your face.
Why is it, Pat, that Hollywood, all these weird Epstein people, they're always pushing the LGBTQ agenda.
People, nobody ever takes a step back.
Because they care about your kids and their freedom and for their choice of...
No, no, no.
If you think about it, and then why when movies come out, Tom, what was the sound of freedom?
Sound of freedom.
Adam's sound of silence.
The sound of freedom.
And nobody in Hollywood cares.
Nobody big was pushing it.
What, Jim Coviezo, one guy, they kind of want to keep on the hush-hush because I saw a video by Dr. Umar Johnson where he's like, if you're a pedophile, he's like, if I was a pedophile, guess what I would push?
The LGBTQ movement.
And he said, you know why?
Because if the kid's old enough at that age to change their body, who are you to say that they can't have sex?
That's your argument.
Rob, can you play that?
Play that video, Pat.
It's a short video, but he really makes a really, really good point.
And I want you guys to see it.
Play this.
This guy's no, like Pat, no holds.
He doesn't hold back any punches.
He tells it exactly how it is.
I am a pedophile.
I don't want to go to jail.
I want pedophilia to become normal.
I want it stricken from the criminal code altogether.
I'm going to push LGBTQ.
Check it.
Because if a child is old enough to decide, I never want to have children.
Take my testicles, take my ovaries.
If an 8, 9, 10, 11-year-old child is old enough to make those three decisions, how can you argue that they're not old enough to decide to have sex?
Bingo.
Bingo.
The argument of the pedophile is going to be backed up by this LGBT crusade against our children because in their sick minds, they are rationalizing the argument before the courts.
If he's old enough to say, I don't want my testicles, if she's old enough to say I never want to have children, if he's old enough to say, I want to live my life as a girl, if she's old enough to say, I want to live a life as a boy and I don't care about having kids and she can say this at 12, is she not also old enough to decide when she's ready to have sex?
What a great, simple, simple point.
And that's why you see it, Pat.
That's why you don't see it because it's like you said, Tom, the supply chain.
They don't want you messing with this.
Let them be, they want to give them the mature mindset as a young kid, bro, so they could just do whatever the hell they want with them.
Because if a kid at that age, you know, decision, no discipline, no nothing, that's the type of shit that I'm talking about.
There's lunacy in here, too.
I'm going to ask Pat three quick questions.
Pat, Tico and Dylan out there playing baseball.
Bang.
Break the neighbor's front glass window at their...
Has never happened before. Never.
Or maybe picking a soccer ball.
It goes right into some of the bad things.
The very expensive window of your neighbor's house.
You know, your kids are under 14.
Who pays for that window?
Daddy.
Correct.
Kid goes at school, whips out the dicksaw.
You don't get to know about it.
And then they're very, very upset.
They have a fight with another child.
They break three teeth out of the front.
Who pays for that?
Daddy.
Correct.
Until they're 18 years old.
So there are two big forces coming together here.
Parents are told that you are financially responsible for things they do all the way up to X. Yet all the things that they keep from the parents are sexually related.
All the responsibility, no one has taken away any responsibility on parents to do anything.
Every single thing.
Abortion, get birth control at school, gender reassignment, cross-dressing, labeled as trans.
All of that is kept from the parent.
It's sexualization.
And you just made a great point about it.
It is supply chain management, America, that is happening before your very eyes.
Yep.
And when they act like it's not happening, yeah.
But you know what's going to happen.
You know what's going to happen.
God?
No, look, of course.
But look what happened in Chicago.
Migrants should be using our gym and we should give it to another.
No, these are my kids over migrants.
Okay, exactly.
Oh, oh, we agree.
Yes.
Hey, Samuel Zanzo.
Yeah, what's wrong with this LGBTQ?
And then your 12-year-old son comes home.
Mommy, I think I'm a girl.
No, you're not.
What are you fucking talking about?
What would you do this my school?
Exactly.
Eventually, time is going to be on common sense's side.
I'm going to keep saying this.
Eventually, everyone's going to realize these were all dumb.
By the way, did you notice some of the craziest, wildest policies came out during COVID?
Some of the things that created all this momentum was during COVID.
By the way, check this out.
Next story.
World Economic Forum Advisor.
The coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates.
Okay.
Let me read it to you one more time, folks.
The coming water crisis will force people to accept climate mandates.
Let's see where they're going with this.
Mariana Mazzucato, an advisor to the World Economic Forum, believes that the impending water crisis will serve as a more relatable and urgent issue than climate change, stating water, every kid knows how important it is to have water.
So there's also something about really getting citizen engagement around this and really in some ways experimenting with the notion of common good.
Mazukato suggests that the World Economic Forum may use the water cris, may use, may use as it's like a prop, may use the water crisis to advance climate mandates, may use to climate mandates, sane World Economic Forum's globalists, may use water a necessary substance for human life to create panic, to advance their agenda and force climate demand.
By the way, this is a quote.
Let me read this quote again.
Go ahead.
The World Economic Forum globalists may use water, a necessary substance for human life to create panic.
Key word to scare the crap out of you.
To advance their agenda and force climate mandates, the World Economic Forum on its official website emphasizes the impact of water-related crisis on societies, particularly to the poor, and cost for governance of water as global common good.
Vinny.
And mind you, and Rob has the video pass.
So I know everybody's always like thinks that we're bananas, but these people, these evil, everybody at these places that has an accent, like Klaus Schwab, I don't trust any of these people.
And she actually said, and this is what she's going to say, Pat, she said, we tried to vaccine, vaccinate the entire planet.
That failed.
Climate change is too abstract for people to understand.
So basically what she's saying is, Pat, you know what we're going to have to do?
We're going to mess with the water because all you idiots drink water and this is evil right in your face saying watch this.
Go ahead.
Also, of course, true with COVID, right?
We are all only as healthy as our neighbor is on our street, in our city, in our region, in our nation, and globally.
Did we solve that?
Like, did we actually manage to vaccinate everyone in the world?
It looks like.
So highlighting water as a global commons and what it means to work together and see it, both out of that kind of global commons perspective, but also the self-interest perspective, because it does have that parallel.
It's not only important, but it's also important because we haven't managed to solve these problems, which had similar attributes.
And water is something that people understand.
Climate change is a bit abstract.
Some people understand it really well.
Some understand it a bit.
Some just don't understand it.
Water, every kid knows how important it is to have water when you're playing football and you're thirsty.
Look at her eyes.
So there's also something about really getting citizen engagement around this and really, in some ways, experimenting with this notion of the common good.
Can we actually deliver this time in ways that we have failed miserably other times?
And hopefully we won't keep failing on the other things.
But anyway, do you realize when she says looks like she could manage two plates?
100%.
She was like Arnold's sister.
The fact that she just said, Pat, she goes, we tried to vaccinate everybody on the planet.
It didn't work.
Then you know what she says?
She goes, climate change is too abstract.
No, bitch.
You know what abstract means?
We're not believing in your BS.
Okay, the world's going to be fine.
But for her to say out loud, this is when I say when evil is in your face and they're smirking and they're laughing at you, she's saying, you know what?
When we come after the water, then it's going to be a problem.
Because guess what?
Even your kids drink this water.
That's scary.
Well, the thing for me is there's the problem and then there's the solution.
I think most people are in agreement on certain problems.
Okay.
COVID was a problem.
All right.
Global warming, a problem.
The water crisis, it's actually real, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.
It's Sahara Desert.
It's a problem.
The question is the solution.
The solution, as we all know during COVID, wasn't everyone has to get mandates, everyone has to get jabbed, lock it down.
Probably not the best solution, right?
We had this conversation the other day with our friend Liz.
Like, what's the solution to global warming?
How much of it isn't man-made?
When it comes to water, you're saying that they're using this opportunity, they're being opportunistic to maybe push the climate change agenda.
I mean, here's the facts, according to UNICEF on the global water crisis.
770 million people lack access to clean water.
That's one in 10 people almost.
People spend an estimated 200 million hours every day carrying water.
The average person walks rural Africa six kilometers, which is about 3.7 miles every day to haul 40 pounds of water.
And urban water demand is expected to increase 80% by 2050, quote unquote, UNICEF.
There's definitely a global water crisis.
I don't think anyone's objecting to the fact that people need water.
There's a water crisis, especially in certain parts of the world, Africa, the Sahara, the Middle East, Lebanon, Afghanistan, like everyone in there.
But is the solution exactly what the World Economic Forum suggests?
I would be very cautious.
100%, whatever.
You know, the movie Big Short when the movie ends and everybody's blown away by this guy, Michael Burry.
You know what the movie said at the end?
What Michael Burry's focus was next after the next wars will be fought.
He said over water.
Oh, wow.
And you know when he said that?
In 08.
Dude, that guy's a freaking psychic.
That guy's good.
So, meaning, like, for everybody that's watching this, stop listening to the podcast.
Go to the Nirvan's.
Go to the nearest Ralph's or Albertson's or whatever.
What is it?
Kroger's or is it here or public?
Yeah, Sam's Club.
Go quietly, without saying anything to the owner, go quietly.
Fill up every single cart that you have with every water they're selling and just buy it.
And get one of those commercials.
Get one of those.
Is there any reason why you buy it?
It's just a big party.
Just a party.
There's no reason.
I'll add one more thing.
I mean, we're so lucky here in America that this is not our daily lifely issue.
And when it is, like Flint, Michigan, a few years ago, oh, bro, everyone took notice.
Ancient, ancient pipes and lead poisoning, right?
And the city is.
Oh, you know what?
There's no clean water in Flint.
What is America?
What is happening right now?
There's still a problem.
We just talked about in East Palestine, all right?
The water that was basically turned toxic.
Silky.
Thank God in America, these are one-off, segmented issues.
Imagine being in other parts of the world and literally not having access to clean water.
So think twice before you talk shit about America.
Go move anywhere else in the world.
Let me know how the water situation is.
Good luck.
Okay, next story.
Miscellaneous.
American apocalypse.
Uh-oh.
Question mark.
71% don't trust the U.S. government to prevent doomsday.
This is a study that just came out yesterday.
Obviously, it's a very inspiring story, but let's go through it.
A survey conducted by bonusfinder.com revealed that 71.2% of Americans have lost faith in the U.S. government ability to save them from or prevent a doomsday event, with many believing that such an event would occur within the next year.
Climate change-related catastrophic.
We're at the top concern with 55.8% of respondents fearing this type of doomsday scenario.
Additionally, a third of respondents believed that another virus could sweep the globe, and 25% feared the start of World War III.
A smaller percentage considered scenarios like an alien invasion or events in 2024.
The lack of trust in the U.S. government was bipartisan.
82% of respondents in the swing state of Arizona expressing distrust.
Some respondents, 16%, cited social media and content they consume as influencing their doomsday preparations, while others pointed to news, family, and movies.
Okay.
Vinny, what are your thoughts on this story?
Well, first of all, it's funny that 71% don't trust the government to prevent doomsday.
Aren't we at the highest level of them don't trust the government to do anything, period, with anything with politics and everything?
So I think when it does come to a doomsday event, don't rely on the government.
You have to rely on yourself.
And I'm not talking about build a bunker or do anything crazy like that.
But listen, Pat, I don't know if you have this.
Do you have like a to-go set up ready to go just in case, God forbid, something happens where ship's going down?
You have to get everybody in the car and go.
Submarine parked outside the house.
And I'm being serious.
I have a bag at my house, the oh shit, just in case you got to go back.
And obviously, thank God, you know what I'm saying?
I'm armed, I have guns and stuff, but MREs, I went to the Army surplus store.
You have to, people don't think about it, I'm dead serious, Adam.
I'm not one of those guys that's, because you know, Rob has a bunker in the middle of the morning.
Well, remember Peter Pry.
I'm not going there to Peter Pry.
But God forbid, and I'm hoping it never happens.
Let's just say, Adam, you get that emergency alert that came on everybody's phone yesterday, and it's something's really happening.
What?
Are you going to go like this?
No, no.
You guys go.
I'm waiting for the government.
FEMA's going to send me a thing.
No, no.
Nobody's going to give a shit.
It's going to be every man for himself.
So I think you have to be prepared to take care of you and your own.
I'll tell you what.
Thank God you have that bag.
The only thing I have is like an overnight sleepover bag.
Quick, we need you out here.
Boom.
I'm out.
I'm sleeping up.
Boom.
With your cat.
Bring your cat.
But I think that's a bag of kibble.
There we go.
I think a lot of people, normal people who would look at doomsday preppers and you see those commercials, hey, come over here to, you know, Arkansas, wherever, Oklahoma, and get your piece of land and go underground.
People are like, the hell, these guys sound fucking weirdos.
Now they're like, you know what?
Yeah.
What was that?
What was that place again?
What was that thing again?
I think people are like, all right, what's going on?
Yeah.
Because the world has changed so drastically.
But Pat brings up a great point.
We had this guy, Peter Pryon.
I think he's the only guest you had on back to back.
Within a month.
Oh, really?
And then he died.
It was crazy.
What did he die of?
Not in the middle of the podcast.
He died a couple months after that.
Just like he'll rest his soul.
And there's a lot of people that actually really love that guy.
Super old.
Seriously.
It's actually worth watching because he talked about how to build a EP underground bunker.
Yeah.
Underground.
But it was called PMDs.
What was it called, Rob?
Preppers?
No, no.
Sure.
I got to go back and look.
It was, you know, sort of like nuclear warfare.
There was a.
Yeah, it was probably just right here.
Well, yeah, I do remember that.
We had episode 155, and then five episodes later, we brought him back to discuss what happened.
And then he passed away.
But the whole conversation I had with him was like, you know, Mr. Pry, Dr. Prye, I totally understand what you're saying.
But most people are struggling.
You know, two-thirds of America's living paycheck to paycheck.
We see debt on the rise.
We see people basically complaining about inflation interest rates.
Now you're telling me I got to go buy some piece of property, underground bunker in Oklahoma.
And I got like, who's buying this?
He's like, look, I hear you, but go get it.
And the ironic thing, God rest his soul, he died.
Turns out he didn't need it.
But at the same time, at least we have this vault.
And whatever property we get, whatever new property we get, I totally recommend that we hollow out the downstairs and have one of those underground.
By the way, to be like, to be funny.
What I'm trying to tell you is, have you seen the doomsday bunkers, like the high-end luxury?
The ones that go straight down, Pat?
And they have all the whole thing.
Here, Rob, can you show this thing I'm sending to you?
Kind of sweet.
No, no.
Some of these things.
No, they are.
And no, like, it's actually a big thing.
That one right there.
Some are hold on that one right there.
Watch this.
11 luxury doomsdays.
This is real?
This is underground.
What the hell?
Yes.
Yeah.
Zoom in a little bit so we can see the picture.
So it's like Trump Top Plaza.
Underground.
What?
For only $17,000 a night, you can keep going.
So this is an underground apartment.
What?
Yes, keep going.
This is another one.
Keep going.
This is a condo.
Look at that.
Look how far that goes down.
Oh, my God.
Bro, if you got the money, if you got the money.
It looks like that building in Chicago.
Have you ever seen the circular building in Sherry?
Side down building going down.
Oh, my God.
Can you imagine that?
Trident Lake, keep going.
Get the prices on these, though.
No, but that's what I want to do.
Bananas, bananas.
Las Vegas underground shelter.
Look at this.
Kids playground running around doing their thing.
There's a game.
By the way, if you can't afford one of these, you better befriend somebody.
That's one of those crazy doomsday guys.
That house right there looks like that one house where once a year you can kill people, purge, or whatever it's called.
Purge, that's a purge out.
Keep going lower.
Hey, look at these houses.
Well, it's straight up by the way.
Bump is right next to each other, like military.
Keep going, keep going, keep going.
Pat, what's the percentage of elites that you think are?
I'm talking about the real rich that have these.
There are people that have.
It's not our language.
Okay, small.
Anyway, so to our viewers out there, that wasn't some weird audio stuff.
That's just their Syrian language.
Yeah, no, we're not.
Thousands of years, guys.
Don't worry about that.
We're not playing this here.
Hadith.
That just said that they're going to go buy a doomsday prepper outfit right there.
Vinny, but you know why you can't do it in Florida here?
We can't buy one in Florida.
Because the Miscane Aquifer is in the way.
Because we're basically like a few feet above water.
If we go any lower here, we'll be swimming.
Boom.
You're hitting the water.
Anyways, okay.
Is there any story you really, really want to cover before we wrap up, Tom?
Did you have anything you did you want to talk about the jobs report?
Or do we cover it all more?
I think we kind of covered economy.
When more data comes out in a week, let's pick up then.
Okay, tomorrow, a couple things, guys.
Tonight, I'm going to be at the Tim Pool event in Miami.
Okay.
They got an event going on.
We'll be there.
Tomorrow, Tim Poole and Jimmy Dore will be here on a podcast.
Brad, what time are we doing it tomorrow?
Is it 8 a.m., 7 a.m.?
9 a.m.
Why can't we do it at 7 a.m.?
I mean, Saturday night.
You know what?
4 a.m.
Let's just say the hell.
Let's be grown up.
8 a.m. tomorrow, Jimmy Dore and Tim Poole.
It should make for an exciting podcast.
And tomorrow, we don't have an end time, so we may go over two hours.
We're going to go three hours tomorrow.
I don't know where we're going to go, but it depends on what we'll do tomorrow.
Tomorrow night, I'll be here.
I'll be in Miami.
And then next, we've got a bunch of things going on, gang.
And then, unless if you guys got to go to the next one, just one more time for my I'm going to be in the Tampa improv, October 18th for one show, 7 p.m.
The tickets are at improvtampa.com.
If Rob could put it on there, and our friend Mike, his birthday is today.
Someone's happy birthday to Mike.
Which was in there.
Oh, big Mike.
Zoovie Mike?
Mike Mike.
Zoovie Mike.
Big Mike is just in there at OJ.
OJ.
OJ Mike.
Happy birthday.
Go watch this man.
Please.
It's going to be.
I'm talking about everything and making fun of every single comedy special.
