Nov. 7, 2018 - America First - Nicholas J. Fuentes
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| Thank you. | ||
| wall. | ||
| We'll be right back. | ||
| We'll be right back. | ||
| We'll be right back. | ||
| We'll be right back. | ||
| We'll be right back. - It's Guido! | ||
| It's going to be only America first. | ||
| America first. | ||
| The American people will come first once again. | ||
| With respect, the respect that we deserve. | ||
| From this day forward, it's going to be only America first. | ||
| America First! | ||
| Good evening, everybody. | ||
| You're watching America First. | ||
| My name is Nicholas J. Fuentes. | ||
| We have a great show for you tonight. | ||
| We're very excited to be here covering the 2018 midterms. | ||
| Joining us, we have two very special guests on our panel. | ||
| We have Bryden Proctor from Right to Bryden. | ||
| Welcome. | ||
| And, yeah, well, we'll see. | ||
| We'll see. | ||
| We're gonna have fun regardless, but, you know, whether or not it's good remains to be seen. | ||
| And, of course, welcome back to the show, Mr. Vince of the Red Elephants. | ||
| How's it going? | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah, I mean, we'll see what happens. | |
| You know, honestly, this has been, I think everyone can agree, everybody who's streaming tonight and everybody on this panel, I think we can all agree that the, maybe the defining characteristic of this election is that it's just totally unpredictable, totally chaotic. | ||
| And, you know, the midterms in the past, the polls aren't always great. | ||
| And last, or two years ago, the election, not a lot of people called it right. | ||
| But this time I feel like nobody really knows what to expect because of the way the turnout's happening. | ||
| Let me just get some of your initial impressions. | ||
| Everybody's kind of heard my take if you watched America First last night or the night before. | ||
| But why don't we start with you, Bryden? | ||
| What are your initial impressions? | ||
| What did you think going into this and what do you think as we're seeing some of these really results? | ||
| Now, in the early voting, in a lot of places did favor the Republicans, but it's strange to see just so much turnout. | ||
| Now, I think-- Ideally, there's not a lot of turnout. | ||
| That's typically how Republicans win elections. | ||
| But you're seeing kind of that Trump effect in a lot of these places. | ||
| The panhandle down in Florida is some counties are like 60% turnout. | ||
| You know, even in some places over here in Ohio and Indiana, they're more than beating the 2014 and even oftentimes 2016 numbers, which is. | ||
| Kind of scary, but I'm hoping that this is just where, uh, places that Trump has been. | ||
| Right. | ||
| I was just informed, actually, we had a little audio difficulty initially, but it's resolved. | ||
| We're good now. | ||
| I'm getting a little... | ||
| How's that? - Thanks for your health. | ||
| Y'all right over there, right? | ||
| Yeah, yeah. | ||
|
unidentified
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My assistant just came in as well to tell me the same. | |
| But yeah, I generally agree with that impression so far. | ||
| And then Vince, what about you? | ||
| What did you think going into this? | ||
| and what's your analysis so far, given what we've seen? | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| I mean, there's, you know, I was going through all the house races and there's like, there's a couple races where there's like one poll and it was done back in early September. | ||
| So there's not enough polling. | ||
| We know that. | ||
| Right. | ||
| But, but from, I use kind of like the same formula when I predicted back in 2016 that there was going to be about 304 electoral rolls for Donald Trump. | ||
| I looked at, I looked at racial demographics. | ||
| I looked at Uh, basically gauging voter turnout, voter enthusiasm by using primary election data. | ||
| How many people turned out for the Republicans? | ||
| How many people turned out for the Democrats? | ||
| I know that doesn't really include independents, but you can get a general, uh, voter enthusiasm. | ||
| That's how I that's what I did for the 2016 election. | ||
| Now, with this, for the Senate races in particular, there was a lot of Democrats that were uncontested. | ||
| So you can't use primary data for the Senate. | ||
| But the Senate, generally, there's a lot of polling going on for a lot of the Senate races. | ||
| But for the House, I predict that the Republicans will eke it out about 219 to 216 based on the analysis that I did. | ||
| But that's you know, but that just goes to show you how close it can be. | ||
| I mean, some of these races are within hundreds of votes, and so it's going to be a stressful night indeed. | ||
| You know, you're right in the sense that you look at some of the most important swing states in terms of the Senate, like Ohio for example, I think there were two polls conducted and they were both conducted within a week of the election and so there just isn't a wealth of data and this is something I was talking about this week is that even with the midterm polling that we have, which is not a lot, it's smaller sample sizes in the congressional races, it's much more difficult to forecast, you've got these other effects where you have voters that aren't | ||
| Likely to turn out in normal elections and also voters that aren't likely to answer the phone to to actually answer the pollsters That are going to be turning out in this election. | ||
| That's young people. | ||
| That's the non whites. | ||
| That's the racial minorities So there's a lot of factors where we say we really have no idea what's going on I think some of the trends we're seeing is there's definitely a lot more young people voting. | ||
| There's definitely I think there's probably a lot more racial minorities voting I think the Democrats are Mobilizing in the Midwest and the Rust Belt in a way that they weren't in 2016. | ||
| And so when you look at those things, to me, this presents a problem, but conversely, we don't know what the Republican turnout's going to look like. | ||
| So, the polling, I'm kind of throwing it all out the window, and it's going to come down to who turns out. | ||
| Democrats are turning out big numbers. | ||
| Republicans, looks like in some of the rural counties, what we've seen from Indiana and Kentucky, are turning out, you know, as much as they need to. | ||
| So, you're right, it's going to be close. | ||
| So far we don't have any forecast here. | ||
| I've got, let me transition over here, I've got the New York Times live forecast, if you remember The Needle from 2016. | ||
| In Indiana right now, Mike Braun is ahead by over 100,000 votes. | ||
| And so that would cover the gap that we need for Indianapolis. | ||
| So it seems like, to me, that Braun, we might pick up a Senate seat there. | ||
| Although it is a lot of the rural counties. | ||
| But you're right, it is a pretty significant distance there. | ||
| He's got a 15-point lead. | ||
| Will Indianapolis, will Gary make up for that? | ||
| I think it's pretty tough to say. | ||
| What do you think about Indiana, Bryden? | ||
|
unidentified
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I feel really good about Indiana, actually. | |
| I think Donnelly's on his way out. | ||
| I know you're saying it's a bunch of the rural counties that have come in, but if you just go to the New York Times map right there, and the whole big dot of it is Indianapolis, and it's heavily for Donnelly. | ||
| Trump campaigned very hard in there. | ||
| Mike Braun campaigned very hard in there. | ||
| You know, I'm right on the edge over in Cincinnati, so I pick up a lot of their AM radio ads and all of that, and they went after Donald pretty hard, so I'm pretty sure. | ||
| And who's that guy? | ||
| Was it Bobby Knight? | ||
| For whatever reason, the Hoosiers just love that guy, so if you get him behind anything, everybody's like, all right. | ||
| I'm looking actually at the betting markets right now. | ||
|
unidentified
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This is, to me, another good indicator. | |
| Typically it tends to fluctuate with the news in the sense that you know it's not the best predictor it's more just a good sign of where the common mood is that because you know if you're invested if you're betting money you're more invested in it you've got the most up-to-date facts and for the betting markets right now they have At least for Indiana, they've got Joe Donnelly at a 20% chance, basically, of winning re-election. | ||
| So it looks like we've basically got Indiana in the bag, which is a very good thing to me because the polling was basically in the middle on Indiana. | ||
| I don't know if you guys were watching the polling on RealClearPolitics, but the average, I believe it was 24 hours ago or 48 hours ago, was only a 0.8% advantage for Donnelly, actually. | ||
| So if he ends up losing by a big margin, I think That tells us something about the polls, right? | ||
| What do you guys think about that? | ||
|
unidentified
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I think so. | |
| Some people are saying that there's a big delay or something. | ||
| In something. | ||
| Let me take a listen to this here real quick. | ||
|
unidentified
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Uh-oh. | |
| Let me America first without this audio. | ||
|
unidentified
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I mean hey, it just couldn't be as bad as it was when we did California, you know? | |
| it was like four minutes at a time of just me like chuckling like oh he's making the good jokes and no um But yeah, when it comes to Predict It, I understand the logic behind, you know, people wanting to put money, and this is a little tinfoil hat, but they're putting, you know, money and what have you, but people also | ||
| Love long shots and will pay off, you know big big payoffs on that So if you are looking at 2016 and you're like, okay, I can you know, I have a hundred extra dollars I can dump it on Beto O'Rourke. | ||
| Well, if he happens to win then I've made a lot more money So I don't think that predicted is gonna end up being as accurate as it should be great idea But you're forgetting there's a lot of people out there with just you know Okay, there's a there's a massive delay in our voices in terms of the OBS software, it's it's all coming in at the same time. | ||
| So let me let me investigate this a little bit But in the meantime, I'm gonna throw up some of the numbers here on the screen and and we'll just let people take a look But I'm gonna try and figure this out here Wouldn't be America First if we didn't have a boomer tech issue, right? | ||
| Wouldn't be... We actually just had a switch. | ||
| I'm using a very different headset than I usually use. | ||
| I actually broke my original one. | ||
| Or, you know, why don't we just, in the meantime, if there's... Wait, is it out of sync in terms of our... Like, my voice is not syncing up with your voice? | ||
| Because if that's the case, I don't... Okay. | ||
| All together. | ||
| Okay, well then, until I fix it, I'll just keep it on the New York Times. | ||
| Looks like a badly dubbed anime. | ||
| So where were we? | ||
| Where were we? | ||
| Yeah, it wouldn't be the Boomer Tech. | ||
| Or rather, it wouldn't be America first without the government. | ||
| Sounds good. | ||
| But anyway, what I was saying about Indiana, while you figure that out, is that last or two years ago in 2016, Donald Trump lost Indianapolis by about 100,000 votes. | ||
| So right now, Braun is ahead by over 100,000 votes. | ||
| So that would make up the gap, the margin that we need for when we take the big hit of Indianapolis when all the votes start reporting. | ||
| I mean, as it looks right now, that's a Senate seat for us, but again, it's really the House that's really shaky for us in this election, which, and I'm most concerned about, because we don't want to hand the gavel and subpoena power to Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party. | ||
|
unidentified
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No, no, no. | |
| I mean, there's only about 134 out of 600 people reporting there in Indianapolis. | ||
| And we'll see if that 140,000, that's a pretty sizable lead that he's got, is going to be enough to overcome it. | ||
| To me, Indiana is looking good, but to me, Indiana was looking good from the start. | ||
| What are you guys thinking more about Florida, if we'll transition for a moment? | ||
| We're taking a look here now at Florida on the Senate map, and that's of course Rick Scott versus Bill Nelson. | ||
| What are you guys thinking about that one? | ||
|
unidentified
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A little worried about it, honestly. | |
| I think that Rick Scott can pull it out. | ||
| When it comes to Florida, I'm a little bit more worried about the gubernatorial race because I know some people down in Florida and I don't want them to have to move. | ||
| I think that Rick Scott can pull it out. | ||
| He was great as governor. | ||
| People did like him as governor. | ||
| I just don't know, you know, how much they liked Bill Nelson. | ||
| There was a lot of campaigning that Trump did down there. | ||
| It sounds so lame, but you know, it depends on turnout. | ||
| Depends on turnout, you know, in an election. | ||
| But it should. | ||
| I'm thinking Florida goes our way. | ||
| I think everybody campaigned really hard down there. | ||
| But you're going to look at a lot of especially getting hit with the hurricane, the way that, you know, Rick Scott handled the hurricane and all of that. | ||
| I think Floridians will remember that and and hopefully vote for Rick Scott. | ||
| But everybody's doing down ballot this this time. | ||
| Everybody's doing down ballot. | ||
| Right. | ||
| And the thing is, is that Andrew Gillum was was was endorsed by the Communist Party USA. | ||
| And he's ahead right now by about 0.2%, so it's very close. | ||
| It's very close. | ||
| We have 3,223,000 for Gillum, 3,209,000 for DeSantis, and it looks like there's a few districts left in the panhandle, which is usually typically red. | ||
| We'll have to see what happens there. | ||
| I'll be in the live voice channel on my Nicholas J. Fuentes server. | ||
| The audio is not doing so hot. | ||
| Which is usually typically red. | ||
| We'll have to see what happens there. | ||
| Would you guys mind hopping to Discord? | ||
| Well, the panhandle. | ||
| I'll be in the live voice channel on my Nicholas J. Fuentes. | ||
| Are you guys all in there? | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah. | |
| All right. | ||
| I'll shoot that over to you. | ||
| We'll see if we can get this fixed. | ||
| I quit all of my Discord things. | ||
| Are you going to have to send it to me? | ||
| I was like... | ||
| Technical difficulties here. | ||
| But let me see if we can get this back on track here. | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah. | |
| It's fine. | ||
|
unidentified
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You can just add in the little widget there, the Discord widget. | |
| I don't have to show my face anyway. | ||
| I'll drag you in, and then Vince will DM you the link, and we should be able to get the audio working. | ||
| Yeah, okay. | ||
| All right. | ||
| All right, so I'll just close this Hangouts then. | ||
| All right, well, that's epic. | ||
| Pretty epic stream so far, right? | ||
| Aren't we just loving the audio issues? | ||
| I think you guys can hear me though, right? | ||
| It's only everybody else that's having the problem, so that's all right. | ||
| But anyway, we're taking a look here, and so far it looks like the polls are starting to show us some returns here. | ||
| Now we're up to Texas, Florida. | ||
| Tennessee, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont. | ||
| I mean the big ones that we're looking at tonight, it's gonna be Texas, Florida, Tennessee, West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana. | ||
| Everything basically the east over here. | ||
| They already called Virginia for Tim Kaine. | ||
| You know, we basically expected that. | ||
| They called Vermont for Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts. | ||
| You know, this stuff doesn't surprise us. | ||
| The big ones we're looking at here are gonna be all these guys and Wow, it looks like they've already declared Ohio for Sherrod Brown. | ||
| That's a little bit disappointing. | ||
| He was leading in the polls, but you know, people still thought he had a shot. | ||
| So let's see. | ||
| It looks like we've got Bryden in here. | ||
| Bryden, are you there? | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| Let's see. | ||
| I'll wait for the live chat to let us know if the audio has been fixed. | ||
| That's the problem, you know, it's not like I don't have a producer of a certain Semitic persuasion, so we don't really have the resources to tell me what's going on with the audio, but we'll figure it out here. | ||
| So, let's see. | ||
| Yeah, it's looking like we're not doing so hot. | ||
| I think they just called Ohio for Sherrod Brown. | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah, but I kind of figured that was going to happen. | |
| I mean, he is the incumbent. | ||
| Luckily, we still have Rob Porter, but there was absolutely zero campaigning going on from Renesi, from what I could see just in the Cincinnati area. | ||
| It was really embarrassing. | ||
| I had reached out to their campaign multiple times just saying, hey, let me knock doors. | ||
| Hey, let me, you know, make phone calls. | ||
| They called me one time and were like, oh, that sounds great. | ||
| Let's get with you and schedule you to do that. | ||
| I was like, yeah. | ||
| And then I never heard from him again, so I don't know what was going on with her in AC Campaign, but I kind of figured that one was, it was a long shot anyway. | ||
| but I kind of figured we'd lose that one. | ||
| So no surprise. | ||
| Yeah, a little pride on the ground there. | ||
| I don't think anybody's really surprised there. | ||
| On the ground. | ||
| The polling wasn't great there either. | ||
| I believe it was a 10-point advantage for Sherrod Brown anyway. | ||
| So not like that's a big surprise. | ||
| Looks like Vince, yeah, I guess the delay is still there. | ||
|
unidentified
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All right, here we go. | |
| Yeah, why don't I? | ||
| It must be your OBS. - You might have to restart, man. | ||
| I'm I have no idea why it's But how could there be a delay? | ||
| Oh because they're you You know, maybe it's everybody else maybe it's everybody watching the stream Maybe you need to get your computers fixed Everybody maybe you need to figure that one out What a night for it to go bust on me, right? | ||
| Every other night I think you were doing alright. | ||
| Maybe if I switch to my other microphone, will that make it better? | ||
| Maybe the quality will just dip. | ||
| I think it's got to be the processing policy. | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| Maybe just put an image, like a small square of your face in the bottom left hand corner and then we'll just go voice only. | ||
| Hey, we're gonna all figure it out together. | ||
| We're all gonna figure it out together. | ||
| It's gotta be the OBS then, yeah. | ||
| OBS actually did just do an update just recently, as I usually do. | ||
| But I'll bet if you restarted your computer, that's what it is. | ||
| But I don't want you to have to do that. | ||
| Not only that, but I don't even think even that. | ||
| I think just restart OBS and pitch on to the stream again, the same stream. | ||
| Because the analysis has shifted away from Ohio, Florida, to let's analyze the audio transmission here. | ||
| That's the thing. | ||
| The audio is coming through. | ||
| I'm hearing it in real time. | ||
| It's showing up in real time on the software, but I guess something's happening when it's relaying it to YouTube. | ||
| So let me check. | ||
| Let me pull up some of the... | ||
| Some things here. | ||
| We'll see if we can figure it out. | ||
| People are not really helping in the live chat. | ||
| If you're being impatient and calling me names in the live chat, that's probably not going to help. | ||
| I think that's only increasing the tensions in the situation. | ||
| That's right. | ||
| We're going to be here for five hours, so strap in, everybody. | ||
| We're going to figure it out, guys. | ||
| We're going to be here for a while anyway. | ||
| So... It's going to... Yeah, strap in, get some popcorn. | ||
| I'm looking at, because it's things that I care about, I'm looking at Ohio's First. | ||
| You know, Aftab Pureval spent a lot of money. | ||
| He had all kinds of celebrities all over the place, all over his commercials on the TV and all of that. | ||
| And he's still, with what's reporting right now, just three points behind Steve Shabbat. | ||
| That's a curious one to look at. | ||
| I know that I heard a lot of the big talking heads, the weird fruit and vegetable shaped faces on TV were totally behind Aftab. | ||
| That would be a big upset for me. | ||
| I don't even like Steve Shabbat that much, he's an old wrinkly man, but Aftab is just terrible. | ||
| DeSantis just pulled ahead of Gillum there. | ||
| Yeah, very good. | ||
| That Florida, that's what's gonna kill us, honestly, and it scares me because that was an election that used to be winnable, and increasingly I think it's not winnable for Republicans anymore because of the demographic situation. | ||
| Do you guys feel the same way? | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| I mean, Donald Trump won Florida. | ||
| I mean, if you look at the, but see, the thing is Cubans vote like 55% for Republicans. | ||
| So most of the Hispanic population in Florida is Cuban. | ||
| But do you know what, do you know who's winning for Georgia though? | ||
| Which is good news for us is, uh, Brian Kemp is winning by over a hundred thousand votes over Stacey Abrams, who sponsored a bill. | ||
| That would mandate the government to tell you to turn in your weapons, your firearms. | ||
| Oh, that's good. | ||
| Yeah, and I remember there was that big, that was what that whole New York Times article was about by, was it Michelle Goldberg? | ||
| And she was talking about how Georgia was going to be the opportunity for the coalition of the ascendant to show white people that it's not their country anymore. | ||
|
unidentified
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And for... Right, right. | |
| Because it's like 30% black. | ||
| The state is like 30% black. | ||
| Obviously, they're not getting them out to vote though. | ||
| It's 272,000 for Brian Kemp. | ||
| Stacey Abrams is 147,000. | ||
| So well over 100,000 votes there for Brian Kemp. | ||
| He had the coolest campaign ad by the way. | ||
| Did you guys see that campaign ad? | ||
| Oh, you know what I think it is? | ||
| I think it's my PC. | ||
|
unidentified
|
You've got to get the bitrate up, fellas. | |
| I see it clearly now. | ||
| It just completely collapsed at about 705. | ||
| So let me see if I can just jack that way up. | ||
| And then maybe we'll be all right. | ||
| Maybe then we'll be okay. | ||
| But yeah, that Brian Kemp is doing well to me is exciting because I think that reflects possibly what the turnout is looking like across the country. | ||
| I think that's going to have some kind of an effect there. | ||
| So that's good. | ||
| And now we're seeing some returns come in from Texas. | ||
| I don't know. | ||
| It's only 1% in reporting. | ||
| Do you think we can learn anything from what we're looking at in Texas, just as long as we have these numbers now? | ||
|
unidentified
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Let me look at it here. | |
| No, because it has Beto up quite a bit for the Senate. | ||
| But that's Brewster County, some place that's close to Mexico, and then Dallas County. | ||
| I know. | ||
| No, I'm not going to accept that. | ||
| I mean, it's my prediction. | ||
| And you know, this always means that it gets screwed up. | ||
| But Beto is, he's got to go down by like 12%. | ||
| Like he has to really get messed up. | ||
| Otherwise, he's just going to end up on some VP ticket in 2020. | ||
| And that'll be funny to watch him skateboard on the stage again. | ||
| And the only reason he was skateboarding is because, well, he didn't have his license. | ||
| You know, he did you guys so that someone did like a side by side video of of Ted Cruz, like basically cooking bacon on his gun. | ||
| And then they showed like Beto trying to dab or something like that. | ||
| Like, hello, fellow kids. | ||
| And I mean, just the fact that Donald Trump only won the state of Texas by nine percent and that probably Ted Cruz will win by around eight percent or something like that. | ||
| Shows us that demographics matter because we were winning Texas like 23% you know 24% before and You're gonna see Texas 23 go blue probably in the congressional in the house race You're gonna see you Dallas County used to be Always red until the demographics completely shifted in Dallas County and now that's always going to be blue it's almost the same thing like with California and There's a lot of blacks in Ohio. | ||
| matter. | ||
| And the fact that Donald Trump won Texas by the same margin he won Ohio, that's worrisome to me for the future. | ||
| There's a lot of blacks in Ohio. | ||
| I mean, that's true. | ||
| It's and one thing I wanted to bring up actually is I had seen in Florida that the exit polls, which are always garbage. | ||
| Black voters, 6%, we're up 6% for the GOP than the normal kind of what we're used to. | ||
| So I imagine it's, you know, Up to 7% or whatever. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I don't really trust that that much. | |
| You're saying 7% of black voters are voting? | ||
| Or you're saying 7%? | ||
| Voted with the GOP. | ||
| What? | ||
| Up above? | ||
| Well, it's up 6% than it normally was. | ||
| The joke is that it was 1% before. | ||
| Oh, I see what you're saying. | ||
| Well, the 2016 election would have like 8%, was it 8%? | ||
| Yeah, it was 8%. | ||
|
unidentified
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Yeah, it's 14 total now. | |
| Yeah, it's 14 total now. | ||
| So let's see, what are we looking at now? | ||
| I guess we've got some numbers from Michigan coming in. | ||
| I understand it. | ||
| And it's less than 1% reporting, but we do have some numbers there. | ||
| That doesn't really mean anything because it's only like one county all the way up north. | ||
| But we've got some numbers now from West Virginia, from Pennsylvania, from New Jersey. | ||
| Now, seeing the way that Ohio has gone, that Sherrod Brown has basically been called for him, given the way that that race went, do you guys think that we can extrapolate what happened there? | ||
| Or rather, do you think we can extrapolate conclusions about Michigan, Wisconsin, possibly Pennsylvania based on what happened in Ohio? | ||
| Because I see, obviously, Indiana and Ohio taking very different courses here. | ||
| Shrod Brown, uh, you know, he obviously wins it outright. | ||
| Indiana, too close to call. | ||
| Mike Brown's way up. | ||
| Which one do you think the rest of the Midwest and the Rust Belt is going to go based on the numbers we're seeing so far? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Go ahead, Brian. | |
| Oh, I was going to say, Vince, you're going to have to take that one over, because the way that I'm looking at it, Indiana is a little bit more, I guess, red than Ohio. | ||
| We've got Sherrod Brown, we've got Rob Porter, so we kind of like to split our stuff. | ||
| And again, heavy black population. | ||
| Indiana is just Actually more rural. | ||
| You know, there's one city in all of Indiana that anybody knows. | ||
| And what is it? | ||
| It's Indianapolis. | ||
| All right, that's it. | ||
| That's the only city you know there. | ||
| You know, we've got Cleveland, Toledo, Cincinnati, all of that. | ||
| So they're a bit more rural. | ||
| I wouldn't make any predictions just yet about Pennsylvania. | ||
| I think, you know, obviously we're looking at, you know, the Senate thing. | ||
| Bob Casey's completely got that. | ||
| When it comes to the House in Ohio, I mean, we've got a lot of Republicans interested in what happens in Virginia, quite frankly, than Indiana and Ohio. | ||
| I just care about my districts and, you know, my governor, and it kind of looks like, at least right now, Richard Cordray might pull this one off. | ||
| which is a little depressing because we've got everything except just outside of Columbus reporting, and he's up four points. | ||
| So I think Ohio is going to kind of break a little more blue than Indiana, but just kind of the way that it is. | ||
| Let's take a look. | ||
| So what about Balderson in Ohio 12? | ||
| Where is he at right now? | ||
| Let's see. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Hang on. | |
| Let me pull that up on the screen here. | ||
| We'll take a look. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Right. | |
| While you're pulling that up, I just want to mention that Debbie Stabenow and John James are in a very tight race. | ||
| Oh, but it's less than 1% reporting. | ||
| Never mind. | ||
| I thought it was more than that. | ||
| I thought it would be more than that. | ||
| OK, but they started with Oakland County. | ||
| You've got to take a look at the predicted. | ||
| I know Bryden says he doesn't care about predicted, but Republicans are now favored 60% to control the House after the midterms. | ||
| Now, granted, these prices don't Yeah. | ||
| Wait, by what? | ||
| By the... Hold on. | ||
| Were you going off of the ticker there? | ||
| The New York Times? | ||
| but you know it is i i think oh okay they doubled their odds doubled that we just did in the uh in the minds of the betters in the last hour or so which is pretty big let's take a look at some of the uh tickers did i Did I get rid of those? | ||
| Yeah, that's... | ||
|
unidentified
|
Hmm. | |
| That would... | ||
| You know what? | ||
| New York Times got rid of their meter. | ||
| Did you hear about that? | ||
| I read an article today that New York Times got rid of their meter because it triggered people. | ||
| It reminded too many people of 2016. | ||
| I think they just changed their ticker a little bit because, I mean, they have it on the webpage, but, yeah. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Huh. | |
| Because they're not using it. | ||
| Yeah, they changed it. | ||
| They said they would have the results in at about 7 o'clock, 7.30. | ||
| They don't have anything. | ||
| Uh-oh, looking like a bad night for them. | ||
| Yes. | ||
| Well, I have two things. | ||
| Awesome. | ||
| I have two things. | ||
| One, apparently the Discord is saying that the audio is all kinds of messed up. | ||
| Oh, thanks. | ||
| We just gotta restart, man. | ||
| But we've got, before we have to do that, we've got a screenshot coming from FiveThirtyEight, where now the Democrats only have five and nine chance of controlling the House. | ||
| So Nate Silver's possibly in for another bad hair day. | ||
| Check this out before we restart, if we are planning on doing that. | ||
| Here we go. | ||
| What if white people voted? | ||
| This is from 538. | ||
| They would control the house 268 to 167 if only white people voted. | ||
| If only non-white people voted, Democrats would control the house 388 to 47. | ||
| They would, Democrats would control the House 388 to 47. | ||
| So there's just some bits of data there for you from 538. | ||
| I'm more confused about what if black people just voted. | ||
| Alright, you know what? | ||
| Maybe we're just gonna have to drop the jettison of guests here. | ||
| I'm asking people like, what's the delay? | ||
| What's the delay? | ||
| People are like, you're all delayed. | ||
| Like, no, you don't understand. | ||
| So am I behind? | ||
| Or are you guys ahead? | ||
| Nick is the only one delayed, they're saying. | ||
| But how could they know if you're the only one delayed? | ||
| In the context of the conversation, is it I'm talking, and then you start talking while I'm talking, indicating that it's me that's delayed, or is it the other way around? | ||
| Because I can adjust it, I can offset the sync of the different audio components, and I can fix it without rebooting. | ||
| But in order to do that, I need to know who's behind and by how much. | ||
| Yeah, exactly. | ||
| Dude, everyone's saying different shit. | ||
| Everyone is saying different shit in the chat. | ||
| Nick is ahead, guests are delayed. | ||
| Yeah, it says guests are six seconds behind. | ||
| Guests are ahead, Nick is delayed, so everything, there's no consensus here. | ||
| I'll try offsetting my volume by six seconds and we'll see if it works. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Is that good? - Okay, I got that figured out. | |
| I just went in the other room and asked the lady watching it, and she said that when you come back, you're talking over us, and then when you say something, it takes us a long time. | ||
| That's why they were saying that Nick was interrupting all the time. | ||
| Yeah. | ||
| All right, let's take a look here. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Oh, shit. | |
| Well, I don't think we're, it's not gonna fix it, you know, I believe we'll have the same problem. | ||
| No, but would it be a big deal if we just restarted OBS? | ||
| Look, I mean, the stream was growing beforehand. | ||
| People are complaining. | ||
| I don't, you know, I don't really care if they're complaining. | ||
| You know, as long as people are, if we restart it, it's just gonna butcher the whole thing, so. | ||
| Let's take a look and we'll see if it works, but people have got to relax a little bit. | ||
| Let's see. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I just like how all of that problem was solved by actually interacting with another plus and plus human being. | |
| We're going to have to adopt the weekly sweat motto, which is fuck the fans. | ||
| That's what we're going to have to switch over to, right? | ||
| But let's see. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Okay, people are saying the delay is better. | |
| I don't know if we want to do that. | ||
| No more delay. | ||
| So now people are saying no it's not. | ||
| Now people are saying it is fixed. | ||
| Okay. | ||
| We just, we can't win here. | ||
| We can't win. | ||
| Some people are saying I like it when it was a delay. | ||
| Hopefully we win in Congress no matter what. | ||
| And then, you know, not fixed. | ||
| We're not restarting the stream. | ||
| We're not restarting. | ||
| So for everybody that's saying, restart, restart, that's not going to happen. | ||
|
unidentified
|
It's fixed. | |
| No, I think all your computers are broken. | ||
| I think everybody who's watching the show... I don't know what that means. | ||
| Because I think it's just fine. | ||
| Add one more second, people are saying. | ||
| Okay, see, this is productive. | ||
| Now we're working together. | ||
| When the fans and the Knickers work together... | ||
| I apologize to the guests here. | ||
| There he goes. | ||
| See? | ||
| Now there you go. | ||
| I mean, you know, every week we do just fine, and then it seems like the election streams, it must be the Zionists. | ||
| I have to say, if I had to point a finger at anybody, I'd have to point to Ben Shapiro. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Let's do a clap sync, okay? | |
| So I'm gonna count to three, and then I count to three, we'll all clap, and then we'll get a sense of what the delay is, right? | ||
| Okay? | ||
|
unidentified
|
One, two, three. | |
| Wait, you... But you clapped after me! | ||
| We have to all clap at the same time. | ||
|
unidentified
|
There was a- what the fuck? | |
| Okay, Bryden and Vince and me, we're all clapping. | ||
| This is entertaining. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Okay, one, two, three. | |
| Fuck the Young Turks. | ||
| Yeah, okay. | ||
| Okay. | ||
| One, two, three. | ||
| Dude, one, two, three, clap. | ||
| Come on, Bryden. | ||
| You know what? | ||
|
unidentified
|
You know what? | |
| Here we go. | ||
| Literally 10-second delay, people are saying. | ||
| It's like five seconds off. | ||
| We've already made it delayed by seven, so we'll jump up to 17 seconds, and we'll see what it's like. | ||
| Perhaps people are just abusing. | ||
| Let's see. | ||
| It could be. | ||
| Maybe they're just fucking around. | ||
| Who knows? | ||
| I'm hearing all kinds of things. | ||
| Ask your assistant, Bryce. | ||
| Well, yeah, I'm going to... | ||
| One sec. | ||
| Let me see. | ||
| You know what? | ||
| Why don't I just... | ||
| I don't even know who that is, but apparently... | ||
| If you want to do it right, you have to do it yourself. | ||
| So let me mute myself really quickly, and then I'll jump back in, all right? | ||
| But I'm going to have to hear... | ||
|
unidentified
|
Thank you. | |
| I don't know how to fix it here. | ||
| So let me jump in. | ||
| I'm going to mess around with that. | ||
| We're going to play around. | ||
| It's honestly... | ||
| I'm not restarting. | ||
| Dude, do you think, like, if I restart the computer, it will change how much processing capacity- I can get it to restart your computer, bro. | ||
| Well, now that I'm re- The computer will say to itself... Now that I'm restarted, I'm finding... No, but you've had, like, streams where you've had guests on, and the discord, and things like that, and it's completely fine. | ||
| It's completely synced up, right? | ||
| So something must be awry. | ||
| Well, I just... Nick, I want to ask you, like, who would you trust? | ||
| The guy that, like, does the streams and then... Prefice versa, yeah. | ||
| Yeah, alright, alright, alright. | ||
|
unidentified
|
I'll start right back up, alright? | |
| Okay, so I just restarted it. | ||
| I didn't restart my computer, I restarted the stream. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Hopefully he deletes the old one, so that... | |
| Uh, yeah, yeah, we'll be right back on the same stream. | ||
| And I'll see if, uh... Are we gonna hitch back onto the same stream? | ||
| ...the bitrate issue is fixed. | ||
| Or maybe if I... Maybe I'll have to increase it. | ||
|
unidentified
|
By a little bit. | |
| I'm... not many. | ||
| Honestly, because usually I have much more windows open. | ||
| I never have any more. | ||
| How many windows do you have open? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Because I'm worried it might be like a ram if you... Let's see, somebody's saying fixed? | |
| Still wrong. | ||
| So which I don't get it half the people are saying more what's good now half are saying it's not Not fixed not fixed Are we back kick gas started jumped a bit rate up a little bit. | ||
| We'll see if we get it. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Oh They called it for Ted Cruz already? | |
| No way. | ||
| That doesn't surprise me. | ||
| Okay, now are we good now? | ||
| Test, test. | ||
| Say hello back to me. | ||
| Alright, well we'll see. | ||
| So they're saying it's good now. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Yeah. | |
| Hello? | ||
|
unidentified
|
Um... | |
| Let me play it for myself and I'll see. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Okay. | |
| Right now there's only 2% reporting though. | ||
|
unidentified
|
So I need to go look at it myself, but this is a screenshot out of the discord here. | |
| Bob Huggin. | ||
| That's not his real last name, but, you know, he'd be hugging them votes. | ||
| Hugin? | ||
| No, it's Huggin. | ||
|
unidentified
|
Because he's hugging them votes, dude. | |
| Come on. | ||
| Yeah, he's up at the moment, which is good. | ||
| I did say on Twitter... What's the reporting, though? | ||
| Oh, okay, okay. | ||
| I did say on Twitter... Yeah, there's no way. | ||
| I mean, Menendez was up by like... But there was only one poll that I saw out of RCP. | ||
| I think he's good. | ||
| Yeah, I think he's gonna. |
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