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Nov. 3, 2024 - The Megyn Kelly Show
01:09:27
20241103_best-of-the-week-bidens-garbage-gaffe-trumps-garba
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Garbage Supporters and Apostrophes 00:15:01
Welcome to the Megan Kelly Show, live on SiriusXM Channel 111, every weekday at least.
Hey, everyone, I'm Megan Kelly.
Welcome to the Megan Kelly Show and today's weekend best of special episode.
Election day is Tuesday.
So you can imagine how busy last week was, but no one could have predicted how totally bizarre the week ended up being.
President Joe Biden stepped on Kamala Harris's closing message rally by calling Trump supporters garbage.
I had Charlie Kirk on the next day to talk about it.
And then former President Donald Trump leaned into it, jumping in a garbage truck branded with his campaign logo.
Stu Bergier and Stephen L. Miller, Red Stees as he's known, were on to break down the hilarious and authentic moment.
Meantime, billionaire Jeff Bezos is feuding with his own newspaper and how, the Washington Post, over his decision to stop the Post from publishing a Kamala Harris endorsement.
Glenn Beck, Black, Glenn Beck, my friend, was on with me to talk about it.
And then we had Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling, to break down exactly what we're seeing in the final days of this race.
Enjoy and see you Monday.
Unbelievable what happened last night.
I'm going to get you to react, but let me just play Joe Biden's comments and what he said right after she spoke.
Donald Trump has no character.
He doesn't give a damn about the Latino community.
He's failed businessman.
He only cares about the billionaire friends he had and accumulated wealth for those at the top.
He says immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country.
Give me a break.
He wants to do away with the birthright citizenship.
Who the hell has said that in the last hundred years?
And just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating aisle of garbage.
Well, let me tell you something.
I don't know the Puerto Rican that I know or Puerto Rico where I'm in my home state of Delaware.
They're good, decent, honorable people.
The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.
His demonization of scene is unconscionable and it's un-American.
It's totally contrary to everything we've done.
Charlie Kirk, thoughts?
Well, first of all, isn't it great to be here, Megan?
Thank you.
Isn't it fitting that the man that they hid from us for three years for obviously having mental decline is just redeployed a week out from the election during Kamala's speech, by the way, and completely undermined.
I could not tell you really anything she said other than Trump bad, unify the country, all the headlines trending on Twitter, 1.2 million tweets, just everybody talking about the fact the current president of the United States calls half the country, myself included, garbage.
So let's break this down.
And I mean this sincerely.
Has there ever been an instance in American history where a sitting president openly calls half the country that he is tasked to govern trash, garbage, worthy of discarding?
Has that ever happened in American history?
Ever.
And if somebody has an example, I would love to see that example.
I don't even think during the Civil War, Abraham Lincoln called the Confederacy that.
I mean, I do not even think during the American Civil War, Abraham Lincoln called the people of the Confederacy garbage.
In fact, I think Abraham Lincoln said these are still our fellow citizens and brother against brother, and it's a tragedy we're fighting them.
And so we've never seen this language ever in American history.
I'd love a historian to dig that up if it's happened before.
That's number one.
Number two, which is that this is what they deserve.
They deserve that this man that they force-fed us as president of the United States four years ago in that ridiculous election of 2020 when he was in the basement and there was mail-in ballots everywhere that were not being checked and there was $400 million Mark Zuckerberg.
They deserve the guy that they forced on the American people to all of a sudden come back a week out from the election.
And there's so many other points to kind of go through here, but this is not a gaffe.
This is a stated policy position.
They do think that we're garbage.
Not just from their rhetoric, but from how they treat us.
Look at how they treated the hurricane victims.
I'm in North Carolina right now, how they treated the hurricane victims in North Carolina versus foreigners.
You treat garbage that way.
Look at how that they are trying to import other 10 million people and destroy the purchasing power of our dollar.
You treat garbage that way.
And Joe Biden did not say something by mistake.
He was caught saying something that he meant that he wish he would not have said.
And that's a very important distinction.
And so this now takes all the headlines in a way that only you could explain that either God or luck or something.
I think it has to be God is on Trump's side because the news cycle was just annoying after MSG, Megan.
We were talking about this comedian's joke and it was all about garbage.
And now it's completely in the opposite direction.
Joe Biden took what was an annoying 48 hours news cycle after Trump had basically unbroken momentum from McDonald's and Rogan and all of his great campaigning to kind of, okay, we got to now cover for some comedian.
And that is another point I want to make just very quickly.
The media freaked out about a comedian not running for office saying an off-color joke.
I didn't like the joke.
You didn't like the joke.
I thought it was the wrong time or place or manner for that.
This guy's a sitting president of the United States and is running the country, allegedly, and is the mentor and the boss of the person running for the job.
And the media has, their coverage was like, well, Joe Biden appears to attack Donald Trump's supporters as garbage or right-wingers get very upset about Joe Biden's comments about them as garbage.
So this is now the closing argument.
This is worse than deplorables.
And I think this is going to do nothing but motivate people that might not have voted to go out and vote because the current administration hates you.
They think you're worthy of discarding.
They believe you're garbage.
Here's what's so amazing about it.
It's a direct parallel.
They just spent two days trying to tell us it is deeply offensive and wrong and an outrage and a votable issue to have somebody on one person's side call a group garbage.
And the case they were making was about a comedian who was at MSG hours before Trump.
No real estate attachment.
Yes, exactly.
So they spent two days telling us if somebody affiliated with the other side calls a group of people garbage, that could be a single issue for you when you go into that ballot box.
You must vote against that person.
That's absolutely deeply offensive, racist, terrible, beyond the pale.
And then what happens?
Not some comedian who's warming up four hours before Kamala Harris gets out there.
The sitting president of the United States, who's been her partner in all policy, from whom she sees no differences for the past four years, as she said repeatedly now over the past couple of weeks, gets out there and says, Trump supporters are the only garbage I see.
And the media has absolutely no room to run.
There's no way of squaring those two positions.
They must say this is deeply wrong and you cannot support a ticket that would have that kind of mentality about the American people.
And yet they are in the cirque de sole contortions to try to get away from it.
We've got to talk about the apostrophe.
Oh, no, no, I was going to go there.
No, the apostrophe is one of the greatest wrinkles of this whole story, Megan.
No, but please continue.
It is.
So you get, you get John, as near as I can tell, Jonathan Lemire is the first person to get the apostrophe.
He is a complete hack partisan, pathetic excuse for a quote journalist.
He works for Politico, and he also is part of the MSNBC morning show, the show that precedes Morning Joe, but now he's being elevated to Morning Joe because his kind of hackery will get you a full-time role on that show.
And he reaches out to his sources at the White House about this comment that we all watched Joe Biden make.
He made it around six in the evening, but it didn't start circulating until later.
And he gets the White House transcript, the official transcript of Biden's remarks, calling Trump supporters garbage.
And he goes with it.
He says, this White House version of the transcript proves that the Biden quote is, quote, being taken out of context.
And the transcript reads, the only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters, but it adds an apostrophe between the R and the S of supporters as if it's possessive.
Like his supporter issued garbage, like out of his mouth, and that's all I see.
That is clearly not what Joe Biden said.
And if you hear the cadence of the way he delivered it, that makes it clear.
We should go back and listen to it again.
Let's listen to it one more time.
Donald Trump has no character.
He doesn't give a damn about the Latino community.
He's failed businessman.
He only cares about the billionaire friends he has and accumulated wealth for those at the top.
And he says, immigrants are poisoning the blood of our country.
Give me a break.
He wants to do away with the birthright citizenship.
Who the hell has said that in the last hundred years?
And just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating isle of garbage.
Well, let me tell you something.
I don't know the Puerto Rican that I know or Puerto Rico where I'm in my home state of Delaware.
They're good, decent, honorable people.
The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.
His demonization of scene is unconscionable and it's un-American.
It's totally contrary to everything we've done.
And then just putting a period at the end of that, Charlie.
So Lemire sells his soul and doesn't even pretend to be a real journalist.
And then ultimately, because this blew up online, Biden puts out a statement that reads as follows.
It's an ex-post.
Of course, Jonathan Lemire shared it from Biden.
Earlier today, I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump's supporter at MSG as garbage, which is the only word I can think of to describe it.
Okay, so he's trying to say, I was referring to that guy's hateful rhetoric.
That's what I was calling garbage.
And he says, his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable.
That's all I meant to say, which is different than that's all I said.
In here is an implicit admission that he said exactly what we heard him say.
And what's remarkable today is, Charlie, the AP, many other like normal news sources or, you know, left-leaning, Axios, CNN are not going along with Lemire's and Politico's spin.
They're actually admitting they heard what we heard.
Yeah, I mean, we're half there.
I have some of these headlines.
Again, these people, they can't bring themselves to ever reporting the truth.
I mean, let me just read some of these headlines.
White House and Trump campaign clash over whether Biden called Trump supporters garbage.
Okay, I mean, we're almost there, right?
I mean, is that really the essence of the story of the Washington Post?
Okay, CBS News, which is by like their entire team, Ed O'Keefe, Waija Jang, Jian, Olivia, Rinaldi.
Supporters or supporters apostrophe.
Biden comments about Trump garbage rally anger the GOP.
Do you see, this is what they do.
If I have to say, if there's ever an injustice, they say right-wingers pounce, conservatives upset, as if we're like being some sort of unreasonable cohort.
And then if we do something against them, or if there's some comedian, they say outrageous, racist, vile rhetoric spew.
I mean, that is the playbook.
AP, Biden suggests Trump supporters are garbage after comics insulted Puerto Rico.
So they just have to add that in there, right?
They have to just make sure that's in the headline.
So look, the possessive thing is amazing.
I would have loved to have been in the White House comms room and the Kamal Harris campaign, where they were trying to figure out how to spin this one.
So they probably watch the tape and they're like, oh my gosh, we should have kept him in the basement, which is just a whole nother amazing wrinkle, right?
I mean, who is there some sort of quiet pro-Trump part of this?
Again, I don't want to get too conspiratorial, but this guy was not doing as many interviews.
He was not doing this many interviews four years ago.
He was a spring chicken four years ago.
And he's completely not needed right now.
And he's doing some Zoom call for Latinos concurrently while there is this like major closing argument just feet away from the White House at the ellipse.
And someone decides to go put you on some Vodo Latino Zoom call where you're going to give off-the-cuff remarks about something that is helping your narrative.
I just, it's a little bit too suspicious for me.
And so the other part of this is that the White House comms room with the Kamala Harris.
Like, okay, well, okay, Joe said that, well, we can't say that he was.
Okay.
How about if we add an apostrophe?
Because MAGA is known to litter.
That MAGA is really known to make the streets dirty.
That it's their garbage.
That if you go into MAGA neighborhoods, they're filthy.
I mean, it's just, it's so repulsive.
And it's, here's what I'm saying.
On that front, somebody on Twitter put out like all the Harris Biden brain trust sitting around thinking, what's the solution?
What's the solution?
And then somebody, if you can see, somebody does this.
It's just a picture of an apostrophe.
By George, I've got it.
And it only makes the story bigger.
And again, it only amplifies it more.
And again, this is a turnout election now.
We're seeing it in the numbers.
This is not a persuasion election.
Kamal is playing a persuasion election, which is highly risky.
In the last week of the election, it's incredibly risky to antagonize and call the opposition names, fascists, Nazis, racist, garbage, all these things, because for every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction in politics, especially when you talk about turnout and it can bring a lot of people more out to the polls that otherwise wouldn't have.
So it's incredibly high risk.
And so by doing this now, again, it started with an unfavorable, you know, day and a half, kind of an annoying, I want to say unfavorable.
It was annoying, okay, MSG.
And then we have to talk about some comedian's thing who's not running for office, who's just happened to be on stage.
Okay.
And now it's very real.
This went from annoying to real to like, wow, the president thinks that half the country is garbage.
And again, we have a tradition in this country.
And this is what's so important is Joe Biden, how many times did he have to say, well, I'm here to unify the country.
And I don't care if you're a Republican or Democrat.
It is all rubbish.
We know this.
It's now through rhetoric and action.
They hate you.
They want to discard you.
And the most important point on this is that this dehumanizing language is what led to the worst atrocities of the 20th century.
I'm not going to compare everything to Nazism.
Nazi Comparisons and Hate Speech 00:08:07
That's what the left does, but it is a fact.
When you use this language, that wide swaths of people are garbage, then in your mind, you're able to justify raiding their homes, taking their businesses away, spying on them, following them into Latin mass, and doing some of the most grotesque things imaginable because they believe that we are worthy of being discarded, eliminated, or just disappeared.
Well, that's the thing is like, this really is a pattern for these Democrats.
Kamala Harris's hands are dirty too.
She may want to disassociate herself from Biden as her supporters now, the guys from the pod save America, keep saying, oh, you know, Biden's not running for president.
He's not on the ticket.
But her hands are dirty.
You've got, right?
You've got, you've got Obama calling Republicans bitter clingers.
You've got Joe Biden out with they're a bunch of garbage.
You got Kamala Harris calling them fascists and Nazis.
And you got Tim Walz, too, out there saying that was a Nazi rally that we watched at MSG.
It was a bunch of Nazis.
It wasn't, he got right up to it.
I'll play you the double Tim Waltz comments.
Here are the original remarks.
Donald Trump's got this big rally going at Madison Square Garden.
There's a direct parallel to a big rally that happened in the mid-1930s at Madison Square Garden.
And don't think that he doesn't know for one second exactly what they're doing there.
Direct parallel to the Nazi rally.
And then he gets asked about it by a local reporter yesterday.
Watch.
You said over the weekend, referring to it, there's a direct parallel to a big rally that happened in the mid-1930s at Madison Square Garden.
Well, you were comparing that rally to a Nazi rally?
Look, I'm comparing it to the hate that came out of this, and I think they confirmed that.
You stand by the comparison, though, to a Nazi rally?
Look, the rally, you saw it for yourself.
I'll let the American public make the decision of what they saw.
What about you, though?
So I know what I saw, and I'll just leave it at that.
Doesn't disavow.
I like that.
You got bitter clingers.
You got deplorables.
How did I forget Hillary?
You got bitter clingers from Obama.
You got deplorables from Hillary.
You got fascists from Kamala.
You got Nazis from Waltz.
And now you got garbage from Joe Biden.
That is what the Democrats think of the right half of this country.
Yeah.
And again, I just, I'm not one to get overly excited with this because I think it's really dangerous, but this is how you get towards justifying eliminating people.
And again, I hope we're not close to that in America.
I really don't.
But they're not trying to offer an olive branch and try to heal the country.
They're basically saying that Charlie Kirk and people like me are worthy of gulags and worthy of concentration camps.
And if I am wrong, somebody proved me wrong on this because Tim Walz had multiple opportunities there.
And for him to irresponsibly and recklessly, and that journalist did a great job following up, kind of play cutesy with it.
So at the MSG rally, what are they saying?
Okay, that at a different location that a bunch of Nazis held something in the 1930s.
I guess when Bill Clinton accepted a nomination for the Democrat National Party in 1992 in Madison Square Garden, was that a Nazi rally?
Because that's really a stupid argument.
And by the way, half of that arena were like Orthodox Jews with Israeli flags.
But no, it gets down, here's the part of it, is that this is all they have left.
And you notice how they started with heavy emphasis on abortion.
They're not doing that as much right now.
Heavy emphasis on all of Trump's felony convictions.
You don't hear that much right now.
They have now gone to their final, final thing, which is honestly, just call them a bunch of fascists and Nazis and hopefully that will motivate our base.
This is so poisonous to the political discourse.
I don't know how we heal this, Megan, other than these people need to be permanently displaced from power.
They need to become permanently in the minority of this country and punished.
And I mean, punished electorally.
Like they need to go and time out for the next two decades and learn a very harsh lesson that this country, the people that they call Nazis and clingers and fascists and garbage are the people that make this country work.
They protect this country.
They clean this country.
They love this country.
They're the backbone of this country.
And their utter contempt for the American people, I mean, if there is any justice left in this world, it will be met with a widespread repudiation this coming Tuesday.
It's really, it's stunning to me to watch the turnaround.
And it's like, I look forward to watching these same journalists who purported to be so outraged about the comics remarks try to justify this.
I really do, because some of us were consistent.
Some of us said, this was not good.
This was not an okay thing, rhetoric for a campaign, and called out even the comedian and have a perfect line of consistency now that it's the president of the United States calling out half of the country.
And by the way, here's the thing.
The comic, he was doing what comedians do.
He was making a joke.
At a minimum, you have to give him that.
He was making a joke.
This isn't a sincerely held feeling by the comic.
He was trying to get a laugh out of a group that didn't laugh, by the way.
The Trump supporters didn't laugh.
Joe Biden wasn't trying to get a laugh line to deliver one.
This is his sincere feeling about the country, and it's shared.
It's shared by his vice president, and it's shared by the man she would make her vice president.
Yeah, and Tony Ratcliffe doesn't have tomahawk missiles.
Tony Ratcliffe doesn't control the U.S. military, okay?
Like Tony Ratcliffe can't just tell the Department of Justice to go after Crime.
Nobody can.
I'm sorry.
But I'm not worried about, maybe I'm crazy.
I'm not worried about Joe Biden or Connell Harris unleashing the military, honestly.
I'm really not.
I'm not worried about Trump doing that to the other side and I'm not worried.
But I am a little worried about what you would do to stop someone from winning if you think he's Hitler and his supporters are Nazis and garbage.
Trump did the right thing and leaned in.
He wore the garbage vest.
He got in a garbage truck.
He held a quick mini presser from the garbage truck.
Here's a little bit of that in SAT4.
I think the Democrats have done a very poor job.
We're leading in every state.
We're leading big.
And I think that the comment made by really both of them, because we're really two of them, about being garbage, maybe 250 million people, they shouldn't be talking.
That's like deplorable for Hillary.
This is the deplorable for Hillary.
And I think this is worse, actually.
For Joe Biden to make that statement, it's really a disgrace.
I love Puerto Rico, and Puerto Rico loves me.
I don't know.
I don't know anything about a comedian.
I don't know anything about the comedian.
I don't know who he is.
I've never seen him.
I heard he made a statement, but it was just a statement that he made.
He's a comedian.
What can I tell you?
How do you like my garbage truck?
This cook is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden.
So first of all, one of the great things about Trump that goes underrecognized is that he tells you exactly what he wants you to think.
That's effective messaging.
It's worse than Hillary's deplorables.
It is worse than Hillary's deplorables.
He wants that in your head.
And the garbage thing, like, this is, it's that bad, like over and over telling you how you should think about it.
That's the genius of Trump.
And that picture right there of Trump in the garbage truck that reads Trump, make America great again on the side 2024 with the American flag flying large and blowing in the wind from where he is.
It's another iconic photo, just like the one of him in McDonald's.
It is another iconic photo.
So then Trump goes and holds his rally in Wisconsin and he tells the story.
This was, this, this is just classic Trump of how this whole thing came about, the truck and the vest, which he is still wearing inside the rally arena while he tells the story.
Trump's Effective Coalition Building 00:08:10
And I come into the arena and I say, where's my jacket?
I want to get out of this stage.
And they said, it would be unbelievable if you could wear it on stage.
And I said, no way.
I got 25,000 people standing outside.
I got all these people here.
There's no way I'm wearing it on stage.
They said, oh, okay, sir.
I said, get me my jacket.
But if you did, you know, it actually makes you look thinner.
I said, and they got me.
I said, I want to wear it on stage.
When they said I look thinner, I said, in that case, I'll wear my stuff.
It's classic.
Vintage, right on point.
And then he adds the following about the difficulty in getting up into one of those huge garbage trucks, which would be hard for most people.
And, you know, Trump's not exactly the slimmest man.
Talked about how it was a little bit challenging for him.
So I said, man, if I don't get up there, this is going to be very embarrassing.
These stupid people, they'll say he's cognitively and physically impaired.
And I can't do that when I'm alongside of this great athlete.
I got to get up to that.
So, so look, so the stair, the first stair is like up here.
I'm saying, shit.
So I had the adrenaline going and I made it.
I made it.
And then I gave a little news conference from the front of the, you know, they asked their wise guy questions and everything.
And then we drove about two feet.
I got out, got in the car.
So good, Stu.
I didn't know Hitler was so funny.
I mean, that is a hilarious Nazi right there.
It really, it really is.
You know, I will say, if I was in the meetings before they started scheduling this thing, the McDonald's thing, you're going to go on stage in your garbage outfit.
I think as a campaign advisor, I'd be like, no, dude, please don't.
You're going to look like Dukakis with his head out of the tank.
It's going to be terrible.
And there's just something about unique, unique about Trump where he can pull these things off.
I mean, this was endearing.
He's a funny, endearing guy when he wants to be.
And I think if you look back to 2016, Stephen kind of mentioned this earlier.
If you go back to 2016, he was kind of this new guy and he was.
He was.
He was had his funny moments.
He was still sort of an entertainer to most people.
And then 2020 was sort of like, you know, it was a little darker.
It was more of an insult comic version of uh of Trump at times.
Right now he's just got the vibe right.
This is that.
This is smart campaigning.
Putting him on these podcasts.
It's where he shines.
He's able to be honest and kind of, you know, authentic.
I mean, Kamala Harris is completely incapable of having moments like we just saw.
She's not, she can't do it and because she can't do it, she can't go on the Joe Rogan podcast for three hours.
She can't have these moments that are connecting with people and Trump you know look, it's still very close election a lot of people hate his guts.
He may very well lose, but it won't be because he's Hitler, It won't be because any of that stuff is true.
He's a pretty entertaining guy.
And that's why, you know, he was one of the most famous people in America before he started running for president.
You know, Stephen, we're getting to know Trump in a way many people have never seen him before.
He's talking about his personal life more, like on Joe Rogan, his reaction to the White House, some of the behind the scenes things that we saw in, say, Tucker Carlson's documentary, Art of the Surge, even some of the behind the scenes video that they've released of him with his boys backstage of the one debate, you know, calling them sweetheart and honey, like his grown boy's sweet.
And then this, right?
He's self-deprecating.
He's making fun of his size.
He's making fun of how hard it would be to get into a garbage truck like that, his vanity.
I think this is actually very effective.
And to Stu's point about the Dukakis thing, Ian Sams, the spokesperson for the Kamala Harris campaign, like a just a complete hack, tweets out.
Who would have dreamt that he'd have not one, but two Dukakis moments in one campaign, putting out the pictures of the McDonald's picture and him in the truck, like completely not getting it.
And in that one tweet, you look at it and you think, I'm starting to get why they're doing so poorly.
Like I, I don't, I don't know that Kamala Harris is all that well served by this team.
Ian Sams is the comms guy who famously put out the Juicy Smole lynching tweet.
And so that just so you know who the context of who that is.
Yes, he is.
What?
You generally, you just, oh, yeah, 100%.
You generally know how effective Trump's stunts are based on the reaction of the people who don't like him.
And this has been the case for years.
And this took me back to 2016 when people didn't think he was going to win.
It's like, how can we actually go for this?
There was an interesting moment.
You may not remember it, but Trump went to Pennsylvania and he stood in front of like a wall of garbage.
And you had several journalists and people, the media, like clowning on him about the advance team.
And they're like, who thought this was a good idea for Trump to go to this garbage plant or a recycling plant or whatever it was and stand in front of this wall of garbage?
And then he also did a thing where he put on the hard hat and they all kind of goofed and clowned on it and it worked and he won and he won that state.
And so I take things like this, they're funny and they are political stunts, but you take things like this and to kind of echo what Stu said, Kamala Harris could be doing this stuff.
The whole McDonald's thing was both a, hey, I kind of want to go and do this, but it's also a thing to question if Kamala Harris ever worked at McDonald's, which nobody is saying she hasn't.
There's just no evidence that she has.
She could have gone and done that.
And this is, to me, kind of why this is effective is like what he said.
Trump can go on Joe Rogan and just, you know, BS for three hours.
Kamala won't do that for one reason or the other.
Trump can go to McDonald's and work the fry.
The fact that she let him get in front of that before her is mystifying to me.
And so I looked at this thing from 2016 when, again, he's at this recycling plan in Pennsylvania.
We'd never seen a Republican do that.
We didn't see Mitt Romney, you know, stand in front of like just a wall of recycled aluminum and talk to voters.
And that's kind of the whole effectiveness of what Trump did in 2016.
We can go through the antics and we can go through the brashness and all of that.
But Trump talked, started talking to voters that the Republican Party hadn't been talking to for decades.
And that's why he is effective at doing these kinds of things.
We can laugh at the gaudiness of the orange vest, but that hits different for people.
He's somebody who he's largely allowed to rise to power in the Republican Party because he's speaking to people that the Republican Party has ignored.
That's right.
I mean, honestly, one of my questions for Donald Trump at that first debate, I think it was at the first one back in 15, was, how long have you been a Republican?
Because Trump wasn't.
He was a Democrat, but Trump was just kind of more nonpartisan.
He had his issues that he cared about and he understood.
And he mentioned this on Rogan.
Like you kind of got to run.
You got to pick one.
You can't run independent.
It doesn't work out well.
So he picked Republican.
And instead of him falling on his face and the Republican Party squashing him, he bent the Republican Party to his will.
And it's now his party.
And that's why he's getting such a different coalition.
They're putting him over the top.
Now, he just likes knocking the crap out of politicians.
Media Blame for the Bubble 00:07:21
That's it.
And no base feels more betrayed right or wrongly by their politicians than the Republican Party.
And Trump just tapped into that.
He just went up on stage and made fun of Marco Rubio and made fun of Rand Paul and made fun of Jeb Bush.
And that's really all that the voting base wanted at that point.
Now, not everyone took so well to Trump's appearance last night in the garbage truck.
I give you Nora O'Donnell, who seems to be on like, I don't know if she got some sort of, maybe she was jealous of her co-host of that vice presidential debate, Margaret Brennan, for getting all of the criticism from anybody who was paying attention for that debate.
Maybe she wanted to be in the news more for her bias because she seems to be on a string on like a streak of getting as hardcore leftist as possible in her last waning months in the anchor chair.
Here she is last night on the CBS evening news.
He landed in Green Bay just a short time ago and then pulled this campaign stunt speaking to reporters from a garbage truck, proof that he and his supporters are giving no grace to a gaffe by President Biden, where he, in his explanation, inadvertently called Trump supporters garbage.
This, of course, was in response to that racist joke about floating garbage told at a Trump rally just last weekend.
Vice President Harris is distancing herself from the negativity and trying to drive home her unifying message that if elected, she will represent all Americans.
Oh my God.
It's different hearing it.
I saw it written in my package.
Stop going on CBS.
It's that is amazing.
That's really incredible.
Gotchi had everything in there about like that would show the bias.
That's like his campaign stunt.
He gave no grace to poor Biden who clarified.
Meanwhile, here's Kamala Harris with her unifying message.
Oh, and a joke was told, a racist joke at a Trump rally without without attributing it to some comic nobody's heard of.
Like who told the joke?
Could have been Trump, right?
Like everything's in there, Stu.
Yeah.
And it's so true.
And it's like, if you go back and you look at like the way they reacted after 2016 in the media, I think you get a real window into what's happening right now.
In 2016, there was this idea that it's part of the hell of my life is to have to watch the mainstream media every single day and react to it.
And when you saw the reaction after 2016, there was this idea that maybe people would kind of wake up and say, well, maybe we are in a little bit of a bubble here.
Maybe we don't recognize what's going on in the rest of the country.
There was this sort of, you know, don't take Trump literally take him seriously thing.
And maybe we need to wake up a little bit and understand like what's the real motivation of irregular people in the center of the country.
And you thought that might be what they took from it, if they were being honest.
But of course, they didn't go that direction.
Instead, the lesson they really took out of that election was to say, we should have never covered the Hillary email scandal.
The fact that we gave any opening at all to that, even though most of our coverage was to disprove it or say it wasn't a big deal, the fact that we alerted to anyone to that at all kind of puts the blame for this Trump thing a little bit on us.
And next time, we're not going to let that happen.
We saw as we got to 2020 with the Joe Biden laptop.
They didn't let it happen, right?
They shut it down.
They didn't cover it.
They banned people from tweeting it at the time.
They did all the things they needed to do because they look at this as almost like a legacy, right?
I can't be seen as someone who didn't do my part.
My part was to make sure every single word I said pointed people to the right direction, led those stupid horses to that glorious water.
And they tried it.
They've been trying it.
I think the American people have woken up.
But you have to think if you go back a decent amount of time before the internet, all this stuff probably would have worked on the American people.
Thankfully, there's at least a way for us to push back and get the truth.
And I just don't think stuff like Trump is Hitler is going to be effective in this environment.
You nailed it with Bezos and LA Times.
I mean, for them to come out and say, you know, we've just spotted something here recently.
This may not be the best for our business.
Right, right.
Everybody knows that you don't want a president, especially one that you actually think might make an enemies list, which he's not going to do.
He's not that way.
He's already talking about, and I don't like this, letting Hunter Biden off the hook.
He's not that guy, but he does have a long memory of, you know, who helped him, who didn't help him.
And I think all these places are like, well, let's not have this on our record that we also at the last minute went all in on a candidate that was going to lose.
Because I think you're right.
That's exactly how they feel.
But the propaganda doesn't stop.
I don't know if you saw the op-ed from the Washington Post, from the Washington Post that says most Americans agree with Kamala Harris.
They just don't know it.
Take our poll.
And you're like, what?
And they, so they put a list together.
Have you seen this?
They put a list together of eight things that when you answer these honestly, it'll show you that you're right with Kamala Harris.
Well, I took it.
A couple of my friends took it.
Stu just took it.
No, no.
It's still, we're still against Kamala's platform.
They're so absolutely not self-aware.
They have no idea that they actually live in a bubble.
And if it is a bubble to them, they think everyone outside of that bubble is just stupid or racist or a Nazi.
Yeah.
So on the subject of the Washington Post, the meltdown over there, which I've just, I mean, I honestly, I've been enjoying the whole thing.
I've been liking it a lot.
Jeff Bezos publishes a piece in WAPO.
He owns it.
Late last night, it hits today called The Hard Truth.
Americans don't trust the news media.
Now, you and I could have written, you and I could have written a piece that starts that way.
We're so far we're eyeball to eyeball, Jeff.
Yes, we totally agree.
We could have done it 20 years ago, by the way.
Yes, we must be believed to be accurate.
It's a bitter pill to swallow, but we are failing on the second requirement.
So far, we are all in agreement.
You are failing.
You are not believed to be accurate.
Reality.
Wait, wait, wait.
But they're failing on the second one because they're failing on the first one.
Yes, of course.
It's not like we just don't believe in it.
Stand by.
Let me just give you, let me tee it up.
Reality is an undefeated champion.
It would be easy to blame others for our long and continuing fall in credibility and therefore decline and impact, but a victim mentality will not help.
Right on, sir.
Losing Credibility on January 6th 00:09:39
Complaining is not a strategy.
We must work harder to control what we can control to increase our credibility.
All right.
So first of all, he's trying to say we've lost credibility without going through the list of how they've misreported, intentionally misled, and what the plan is.
Because what he's doing here is trying to justify his decision not to endorse any candidate.
And without taking ownership, Glenn, of the many, many errors, lies, repeated false stories that they have pushed over the past eight, nine years.
This is a Jeff Bezos ass covering.
This is not a Maya culpa designed to actually bring back in anybody right of center.
No, this is this is like the three-step program from AA.
I mean, you, you have to admit that what you have been doing isn't working.
You have to, you have to lay out all of the things that you have done and make sure that you make amends for those things.
You can't just say, yeah, I'm an alcoholic.
And you know what?
My real problem is people now know I'm an alcoholic.
And that's the real problem.
No, that's not the real problem.
The real problem is you've this, and this.
And that's what led to your alcoholism.
Yeah, no, it's like the alcoholic being like, nobody wants to be around me.
My breath smells bad.
I keep falling asleep in the middle of work.
And it seems to be turning people off.
So I'm going to stop doing those things.
But no mention of the drinking.
We're not going to work on that at all.
No, the cause.
You've got to go to the root cause.
And I don't know.
Is it because he's afraid of his own people?
Because for them to quit over this, do you really think anybody who reads the Washington Post is not aware of the Washington Post's desire to have Kamala Harris?
I mean, look at the op-ed that I just showed you.
They're still doing that.
I mean, everybody knows.
Yes.
Okay.
So he goes on to say as follows.
Presidential endorsements do nothing to tip the scales of an election.
Agreed.
No undecided voters in Pennsylvania are going to say, I'm going with newspaper A's endorsement.
None.
Agreed.
What they actually do is create a perception of bias.
I mean, yes, but it's already there.
A perception of non-independence.
I hate to break it to you, Jeff.
That was riddled all over your magazine or your newspaper long before endorsements.
Ending them is a principled decision, and it's the right one.
Well, I'm glad you agree with yourself.
Then he goes on to say this, Glenn.
Buckle up.
That is so funny.
I just love you.
Yes.
Many people are turning to off-the-cuff podcasts, inaccurate social media posts, and other unverified news sources, which can quickly spread misinformation and deepen divisions.
The Washington Post and the New York Times win prizes, but increasingly we talk only to a certain elite.
While I do not and will not push my personal interest, I will also not allow this paper to stay on autopilot and fade into irrelevance, overtaken by unresearched podcasts and social media barbs, not without a fight.
It's too important.
That's it.
Oh my gosh, you self-important gob of vine.
Yes.
Vomit.
Look, They don't understand that I believe that the way Trump is seeing this right now is he's actually open and authentic and he is talking to the regular people through these podcasts.
Nobody relates to ABC, NBC, CBS anymore and their anchors.
Who listens to those people anymore?
And yet they're the ones doing the debates.
They're the ones that are doing the important interviews that end up being edited one way or another.
These podcasts that Donald Trump is coming on, like Joe Rogan, I think will be the replacement for the media in four years.
I think if Trump wins, it will largely be because he understood where trust is.
Stand by, audience.
We will fix the audio with Glenn and we shall resume with Glenn in just two minutes while we get that fixed.
But while I have you all, the nonsense that Jeff Bezos spews in this piece is truly stomach turning.
Unresearched podcasts or social media barbs, you can tell this is a man who knows he's lost irrelevance, clinging to the last vestiges of it.
The golden days when WAPO used to be a thing, Woodward and Bernstein, when they can control the narrative and bring down a president, those days are gone and he knows it.
The Rogan interview of Trump right now has 37 million views.
37 million views.
And that's not with all due respect to X, where I post my own stuff too, but X will count a view if you just scroll by it.
On YouTube, you've actually got to see it to get a view.
You've got to click on it.
And that's 37 million.
The Washington Post, as of 2023, had 136,000 print subscriptions, 136,000.
That's not a lot.
And digital subscriptions, they had 2.5 million.
Okay.
I have more than that to my YouTube channel.
I'm sure Glenn does too.
They're irrelevant.
No one's listening to them anymore.
And Jeff Bezos knows it.
And so this, I'm not going to endorse because I'm going to resurrect my paper makes no sense.
They've already sold their credibility up the river.
They know it.
And this is him desperately trying to hold on to any sort of pat on the head ability he can get from Donald Trump.
I think we've got Glenn back with us.
Sorry, Glenn.
We lost you for a minute.
You can only lose so much credibility and you can, I mean, they've made themselves irrelevant.
Nobody needs the Ivy League expert to ask questions that no American is asking.
January 6th is one of them.
If they bring up January 6th one more time over the possibility of, I don't know, sending my son or daughter to nuclear war over in Ukraine or Taiwan or wherever else they will want to gin up a war.
I don't know.
I think that's more important than January 6th.
When you want to bring up January 6th, if you didn't have a record of bringing up the burning down of, say, just Minneapolis or Portland, you don't have any credibility at all.
So why would I be listening to you on that?
Joe Rogan was asking the questions that the average person wanted to know.
And these guys are just like I think you are.
I hope I am.
But we're more like the average person.
Now, you're very well educated.
I'm pretty much a dope.
But Joe Rogan, the people are, they relate to him.
And that's why the ABC, NBC, CBS doesn't work.
They don't relate at all.
You know, it's like I'm a big TV history buff and Sid Caesar did your show of shows back in the 1950s.
It had Woody Allen as a writer.
It had Carl Reiner as a writer, Mel Brooks as a writer.
It lost every week, lost to the Lawrence Welk show.
And here's why.
They were making jokes about Shakespeare and things that were on Broadway.
The rest of the country could not relate at all.
So missed some really good comedy because it wasn't aimed.
It was aimed just for their little click.
That doesn't work.
And that's what the media has become.
Let's just talk about what our friends at our cocktail parties on Madison Avenue or on Central Park West are talking about.
That's not America.
You've got to relate to Americans and let the candidates talk.
I really, truly believe this is the last election.
I could be wrong, but I don't think so.
I really think by 2028, if he wins, by 2028, you're not going to see the mainstream media have the debates.
They're going to be farmed out to whoever has the biggest audience and is the most relatable.
You might have journalists doing it, but they're not going to be from ABC, NBC, The Washington Post only.
They will also include other people because this system doesn't work anymore.
They're fighting to bring back the three network system.
It's going to work.
It's too late.
I mean, the three networks are as dead as the fake skeletons I have in my front yard right now.
They are that dead.
You can put a wig on them like I did.
You can put a dress or a suit on them like I did.
But they're dead and they're not coming back.
Listen to this, Glenn.
Canadian Debbie just sent me a couple of examples of the Washington Post.
Swing States and Immigration Issues 00:15:00
Now, see, even without their presidential endorsement, if you can guess which side the Washington Post is on in this presidential election.
Okay.
Got a few for you.
Here's one.
Trump and allies plot revenge, Justice Department control in a second term.
Here's another one.
Trump's promise to exact revenge won't be hindered by mere laws.
Wow.
Here's another.
Trump wants revenge in 2024.
And here's yet another one.
Trump doesn't just want to win.
He wants revenge.
That's just a couple over the last few days.
And that is going.
He's not.
He is.
I don't know if you've seen him.
He is the opposite.
No, he's, let me say it this way.
He's exactly what I think Republicans and independents didn't think he would be in this election.
Back in 2020, 21, when people were talking about Donald Trump running again, we're like, oh, no, it's all going to be about 2020 and I lost and what they've done to me, et cetera, et cetera.
He's not.
In fact, I think he's running the best.
Yeah, he's running the best campaign I have seen any Republican run.
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Explain the CNN poll, okay?
Because the CNN poll, everything seemed to be kind of going one way where it was tightening and it was getting a little bit closer.
And Trump was tying it up in each state, if not taking a lead.
But that was good for him because he'd been down three or down one, so to be down three and then up one or down three and then tied was good.
And then comes this CNN poll.
And I realize life does not revolve around CNN, but the CNN poll did drop and it's got a big lead in there for Harris in Michigan and in Wisconsin, like plus five in each state.
Do you believe it?
Well, Megan, a poll is a range of scores.
And so when we put out a poll result of, let's say, Trump up by one point, that range could be Trump winning by four or Trump losing by two.
So when you see a poll that has, let's say, Harris up by five points in Wisconsin, that poll still indicates that, yes, Harris could win by five.
She could win by 11, but she could also lose by a point.
So to me, that type of number is really on the outside, the fringe end of what you'd expect.
In 2020 in Wisconsin, the polling generally had Biden up around six points, and he won that state by less than one point.
Michigan had a similar type of polling error.
And this is not just CNN, but generally across the polls under reporting the Trump vote.
So yeah, when you take a look at some of these polls, they seem a little as an outlier in the fact that like Michigan or Wisconsin's been a one-point race back in 2016.
It was a one-point race in 2020.
Do we really think it's going to bounce five or six points in a direction when it's been so locked in?
And then if you jump over to Michigan, do you think Michigan is closer or further away for the Democrats than they were in 2020 when Biden wins by just over two points?
This would suggest that Harris is doing better than Biden when a lot of the other polling, particularly the national polling, is also showing the race tightening closer to 2016 numbers than compared to 2020.
Okay, so having dealt with CNN, which you seem to be suggesting may be a bit of an outlier, you know, take it with a grain of salt.
And they haven't been doing a ton of polling.
Like I think their last poll was a few, a couple of months ago.
So they don't, I don't know if they have their finger on the pulse or what's happening there.
But having dealt with that, zoom out and tell us where you think this race stands.
Well, yeah, if we take a look at like the big picture, remember where we were in July and August, where Trump takes this big lead when Biden is faltering and then Harris jumps into the race.
And then she appeared to take a big lead of four or five points nationally.
But what we've seen really since that first debate, even a little bit before that debate, is a slow melt of that support for Harris.
And what it looks like coming into the election is there's some momentum for Trump as we enter Election Day in some of these states.
And remember, he doesn't need to win all of the swing states just to get to the 270 mark.
And when you do look at that polling as a whole, for example, Pennsylvania, we don't see many polls having Harris leading in Pennsylvania.
You see polls that are tied or they're slightly leading towards Trump.
Pennsylvania is a key state for the Democrats.
If they lose Pennsylvania, really difficult road to 270 for Harris.
So that's a number that as you take a look at, it looks like Pennsylvania should go towards Trump, and that would suggest he would have some success on election night.
But if Pennsylvania does flip and stays with Harris, that opens up some other pathways that we've been seeing.
But the general take is that Harris is doing slightly worse than Biden in 2020.
And the question is, is it worse enough for Trump to be able to overtake her in states like Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, all within a point.
You know, those are all states that ended up within a percentage point.
The other states that are a little bit further away would be Pennsylvania and Michigan, but those are also very competitive.
Most of them have it tied or within a point on either side.
Okay, so let's talk about possible paths, because as I was looking at the numbers today, and you can just Google those interactive maps and start clicking on what if she wins these states, what if he wins those states?
Because I was looking, I compared the path, the possible paths to the latest Battleground averages, taking the real clear politics and 538 averages of all polls.
And for example, I looked at Georgia.
RCP average has Trump up 2.4.
538 has Trump up 1.8 in the average of all polls.
The latest Emerson poll, which was earlier in October, showed Trump up one.
So it looks tight, but it looks somewhat comfortable given the comparison states for Trump.
Agree or disagree?
I would agree.
Even, you know, with our poll at one point, the previous poll was at three points.
And so we were seeing some movement in Georgia, but I think Georgia is a pretty strong state for Trump.
He seems to be getting along with Governor Kemp fairly well at this time.
And those numbers are around, I think, what you mentioned on the aggregate, around two to three points, which remember, Trump does better in 2016 when he wins the state.
And then Biden barely takes it in 2020.
Maybe it falls in between those two numbers, but it seems to be leaning towards Trump at this time.
Just the makeup with Kemp should be worth 11,000 votes, you would think.
We did see his numbers shift almost immediately after those two patch things up.
Okay, North Carolina.
There was a report earlier this week.
I don't know how much stock to put in it, frankly, because it hasn't been everywhere.
And the polls still show North Carolina tight, but there was a report by the Carolina Journal that she had pulled some $2 million worth of her advertising from North Carolina.
And she had made like a $2.3 or $4 million ad buy and she pulled almost all of it out.
And it's not because she's running away with North Carolina.
You know, it's not like she's up 10.
This is looking more like Minnesota.
So why spend the money there?
But it being as tight as it appears to be in the polls, you also wonder why she would throw in the towel there, given that her campaign is rich.
They have a lot of money.
So I don't know what's happening in North Carolina.
It's strange to me that she'd pull the ads given what I see in the polls, but maybe you can help me.
RCP average has Trump up one.
538 has Trump up 1.1.
The Emerson poll, your group in late October, showed Trump up two.
Yes.
And so North Carolina is one of those states that Harris is trying to win back from the Republicans.
So it's always trying to win a game on the other team's homefield.
And North Carolina would be a Republican homefield, like Georgia is a Democratic homefield where they're trying to hold those electoral votes that Biden won and the Republicans are trying to take that back.
But North Carolina is, I always thought was a bit of a stretch for the Harris team.
This is a state that Trump won in 2016 and in 2020.
It's been a state that has been pretty solid.
Remember, it goes for Obama in 08 and then switches back to Romney in 2012.
So North Carolina historically would be a hard state for Harris to try to break through on.
I know that the Democrats were a little bullish with Mark Robinson, the lieutenant governor, gubernatorial candidate for the Republicans, showing a weak campaign against Stein, thinking that there might be some reverse coattails.
But we're not necessarily seeing that in our numbers.
It looks pretty, you know, even though two points isn't a huge, it's still within the poll's margin of error, but it's a big number to overcome for the Democrats.
And I think that's maybe why she pulled some of that ad buy out of North Carolina, because if Stein is still only at 12, 13 point lead in that gubernatorial race, that might not be enough to pull her over the top.
And in fact, we see a more much more ticket splitting when we see folks going on the Trump side willing to balance their ticket that way.
So I don't know if it's going to help Harris in that regard in North Carolina.
I mean, I can see a real MAGA voter in North Carolina being like, the lieutenant governor is a hot mess.
I don't believe his denials on all of his weird scandal, but I love Trump.
I'm not going to make Trump pay for this guy's scandal.
So I guess to your point.
Yeah, go ahead.
I was going to say, you know, he's been down.
Robinson's been down by double digits for months, and it hasn't impacted the top of the race.
You know, as you mentioned, those polls have it, you know, tied or one point.
It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's going to be a lot to overcome considering the situation.
Okay, so let's go.
We did Georgia.
We did North Carolina.
Let's talk about Arizona.
RCP has Trump up 2.5, 538.
Again, this is the average of all polls, and they curate the polls.
They don't take any poll in these averages.
They only include the top-notch pollsters with a proven record like Emerson and others.
Okay, so 538 has 2.2.
So up 2.5, up 2.2 in the averages.
Emerson had Trump up two in early October.
What do you think is happening in Arizona?
Arizona as a border state is a little different than these other states we've talked about because immigration is their top issue.
So when we talk about these swing states, it's generally the economy is the top issue at around 40%.
But in immigration, it drops down to about 30%.
And immigration is at 30%.
And then what's also interesting in Arizona, which is different than these other swing states, where females are voting for Harris and males are voting for Trump.
In Arizona, both males and females are breaking for Trump.
Not by the same propensity like we're seeing of males in other states, but both genders are breaking, which is unusual considering there has been a gender divide in this race.
But in Arizona, it's unique.
I think the immigration issue, it separates it from the other swing states.
And that's been a state that Trump has been leading for a while.
The Senate race there is different where Gallego seems to have a small but steady lead over Lake, pretty consistent.
So again, the ticket splitting is what we're seeing where they'll go with Trump, even though they went with Biden last time.
This is a state where Trump could try to win back those 11 electoral votes.
Wow.
I mean, Arizona's gone more and more blue lately.
They've got this Democrat governor.
They've got Democrat senators.
So is Arizona still a red state, would you say?
I mean, I realize it's one of the swing states, but is it in its nature?
Do you think it's like it's more red than blue?
Well, I think the issues are more red, but I think the voters are more purple and they're willing to vote across aisle lines.
They're not, you know, locked in with one of the parties like we may have seen in the past.
I don't think it's Barry Goldwater country exactly what, you know, was back in the day.
But yeah, there's an inkling based on the issues, particularly on the immigration side, to try to get that resolved and solved.
And so those line up better with Republican candidates.
But as you mentioned, the Democrats do have, they were able to take both Senate races and the gubernatorial and the governor's race.
So Arizona's definitely been open to the Democratic approach, but they've also rejected too far of a progressive Democrat.
And that's what makes the Gallego race really interesting, that he's been able to hold on to that league, even though he's a little bit more progressive than where Arizona tends to be.
Yeah, you got Mark Kelly.
But I mean, Gallego, he's definitely a progressive guy, but they just don't seem to be responding well to Carrie Lake for, you know, a host of reasons.
She was on the podcast saying, I disagree.
My internal polls say these polls are wrong.
We'll find out very soon whether any of that is true.
Okay, so that's so so far, based on this discussion, it would appear Trump is actually looking good in Georgia, in North Carolina, and in Arizona.
And Nevada, remarkably, Spencer, seems so far to be leaning Republican.
Doesn't mean things won't change over the next five days as the voting continues, but like something incredible is happening in Nevada.
Well, Nevada, you know, used to be more of a swing state.
Early Voting in Key Battlegrounds 00:06:04
It's become more Democrat over the last, you know, six to eight years.
Obama helped make it more Democrat, but they've been pretty strong at like two, two and a half points for Clinton, two and a half points for Biden.
Now the race is much tighter.
It's about a half a point.
I still think it leans towards Harris, but Trump has made up a lot of ground.
Again, the Senate race seems Jackie Rosen's got a stronger lead over the Republican Brown by a couple of points.
So you're not seeing any coattails from Trump moving down, perhaps.
But that's a state where I think the Democrats can still hold it.
It's six electoral votes, which are important, but it could also swing.
It's really rolling the dice there in the Silver State.
Those polls have been really tight.
Now, what's interesting there is that you've got this huge Hispanic population.
And Hispanic polling is really difficult to do.
Some Hispanic in the Hispanic community, they're much more not as confident of taking the polls.
They're not willing to answer the phones or give out that information.
And so sometimes that polling can get a little wonky out there.
But what we've seen is a pretty consistent close race between these two candidates for a couple of months.
But what I'm basing my comments on are the John Ralston reports on how the early voting seems to be going.
And it seems we discussed this with Charlie Kirk yesterday, like the Republican votes coming in are exceeding anything they've seen in the past.
And from counties that they didn't expect, like the Democrats so far, the response in Clark County, which is where that's how they win the elections out there, right?
Clark County, it's the Vegas district.
That's how the Democrats win.
The Democrat response has been lower and the Republican response has been higher than they anticipated.
So right now, if you're Trump, you have to be feeling better than you've ever felt before about your chances in Nevada.
You do.
And those early voting numbers that you've referenced, it's important to see the Republicans, I believe, are plus five.
They're about 39% of the vote versus 34% for the Democrats in this early vote, which is counter to where the Republicans were four years ago.
Now, are they cannibalizing their election day vote or is there even more Republican vote that's going to come out?
If that's the case, then Trump will take the state because he's leading right now in the early voting.
I presume the Democrats will get a push through their culinary unions or other groups out there to try to match that vote.
But those are important numbers to follow over the next few days, because if the Democrats don't match that 39%, the conventional wisdom is the Republicans will have a better day of get out the vote effort and should be able to maintain whatever advantage if they have one on election day.
Well, it'll also really be interesting to see whether the culinary unions and so on do what the Teamsters did, where the pressure from the top is to get out and vote and to vote blue, but the rank and file don't listen.
They don't want who the people who are running the union want.
And they go into the voting booth and they do what they think is right.
So, you know, it's just with Trump, it's not as clear-cut as it used to be when it comes to the union vote.
So even that, I don't know.
I'm not sure the Harry Reed union machine is going to be as helpful to the Dems as it has been.
I think that's a great point, Megan.
And it's not just in Nevada.
It's Michigan.
It's Pennsylvania.
What we're seeing is this whole change of the electorate happening right in front of our face.
And sometimes you don't recognize it when, you know, the wind's blowing in all these directions, but I can see the working, the union votes shifting a little bit from left to right, and then more of that elite, higher educated vote shifting a little bit more from the right to the left.
And we'll see how it all balances off on November 5th.
But it seems as if the electorate is being shaken up this election cycle.
Okay, so of the four states I just listed, which would give Trump the presidency, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, which is the one most likely to go blue and not red?
Nevada.
Yeah.
Okay.
So that would be six electoral votes over to the blue side.
And that would mean Trump would need to win one of the blue walls.
He would have to win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which are tougher, I think.
That's a tougher road.
I mean, again, Nevada, as you point out, is more of a blue state, but given the weirdnesses we just discussed, might not be ungettable for him.
So which of the three blue walls is he looking the best in?
Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania?
So in our polling, we've seen him strongest in Wisconsin.
And Wisconsin was a state that he lost by half a point.
Remember, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he loses by a larger amount, about two points in Michigan, about a point in Pennsylvania.
Remember, Nevada is a state where in 2020, Nevada is a state where Biden wins by just over two points.
So out of those states, Wisconsin was the closest of them.
And what we've seen pretty consistent in all of our polling is a zero to one point Trump advantage.
And it's not a huge advantage, but we have consistently seen in Wisconsin polling underrepresent Trump.
So in all of the polls, not just the Emerson poll, every poll out there generally has underrepresented Trump in 2016 and again in 2020.
And when I say it's like five points, six points.
So to me, anything in Wisconsin that's tied, the conventional wisdom is that Trump will take it because we're underrepresenting.
It's not intentional.
I want to capture everybody's opinion, but it's just historically, you got to look back at your track record and say, what states are harder to poll than others?
And that happens to be, it seems, one of those states.
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