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Oct. 16, 2020 - The Megyn Kelly Show
01:04:47
20201016_dueling-town-halls-with-marc-thiessen-bob-beckel-a
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Welcome to the Megyn Kelly Show, your home for open, honest, and provocative conversations.
Today, 18 days out from Election Day, the state of the presidential race, town halls, the polls, and much, much more.
Coming up, we've got Mark Thiessen, Bob Beckel, and Frank Luns, three of my favorites, for news and all the analysis you need.
Hey, everyone.
It's Megan Kelly.
Welcome to the Megan Kelly Show.
Well, we've got a packed hour coming up for you today with all reactions to the town halls last night and the latest on the state of the race.
Can we trust the polls?
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Okay.
Trump Debate Strategy 00:15:27
And now I want to bring in Mark Teeson, resident fellow at AEI and co host of AEI's podcast, What the Hell Is Going On?
Which is a great name for a podcast, Mark.
It's so good.
To talk to you.
Thank you for being here.
Oh, it's so great to be back on the air with you, Megan.
Oh, honestly, Mark and I had a lot of good times on the Kelly file and even before, and he was always super smart with his little clipboard and became a television star.
We worked together on the Kelly file, then everyone tried to steal him from me, and I was like, back off, he's mine.
Okay, so great to have you back again.
Let's talk, first of all, about what we saw last night, the dueling town halls.
What are your reactions to what we witnessed?
Well, first of all, the fact that we had dueling town halls is a debacle.
You know, the Commission on Presidential Debates has not exactly clothed itself in quality this time around.
The reason we had this is because they went in and unilaterally decided that we were going to have a virtual debate, which, of course, Donald Trump doesn't want to have a virtual debate because they're going to cut him off.
You know, they're going to put too much control in the hands of the moderator.
And it wasn't necessary.
And it turned out it wasn't necessary at all.
And so you had the Commission on Presidential Debates.
Instead of going to the campaigns and saying, hey, you know, we got this new situation.
How do you feel?
Let's work it out.
They just sort of unilaterally decide this.
And then, oh, by the way, their debate moderator, Steve Scully, you know, Fakes a, you know, has a stupid tweet and then fakes that, you know, he was hacked.
So, I mean, just to refresh the audience if they didn't see that.
So, the Presidential Debate Commission decides to, you know, go the five year old route and play doctor.
They decided to play doctor and decide Trump preemptively cannot do this debate like a week in advance.
Meanwhile, he was symptom free several dates prior to the date the debate would have happened.
And then Steve Scully of C SPAN is supposed to moderate the thing.
It comes out, he meant to DM, like private message, Scaramucci, one of Trump's. Arch enemies about the upcoming debate when he still thought it was on and says, Oh, should I do it?
Should I respond to Trump on something?
When he gets caught and realizes he sent it out to the world instead of a private message, he lied and said, Oh, I was hacked.
And I tweeted out right that day, they can't possibly go with this.
This is an obvious lie.
And sure enough, then they uncovered that back in 2012 and 2013, he sent out stupid tweets.
And guess what he said?
I was hacked.
I was hacked both times.
Here's a word to the wise unless it's some massive hacking like we saw with Bill Gates and all these really super rich, famous people.
They haven't been hacked.
Hacking is a lie.
Nine times out of ten, they use it as an excuse to cover up their own bad behavior, as we saw with Joy Reid, who doubled down on her hacking lie and said the FBI was investigating her fake hacking under her anti LGBTQ posts.
And weirdly, the FBI has never come up with a culprit.
So, anyway, I digress, but Steve Scully has been embarrassed.
He's been indefinitely suspended from C SPAN, which was the right thing for them to do.
And the whole second debate, start to finish, that never happened.
Was a debacle, which leads us to last night in the dueling town halls.
I was watching, so I watched Trump from the hour of eight to nine, and then I watched Biden from nine to 10.
And I'll tell you what I thought.
I did think that Savannah Guthrie was more of a debater than she was a moderator.
I thought she was all over Trump, and I think there is a role for the moderator to play in pressing a candidate for real answers and fact checking.
But to me, she looked more like his debate opponent.
And my overall impression was she was trying to service not the audience at home, but the audience within NBC that was.
Ticked off Trump was even on their air.
What'd you think?
I couldn't agree with you more.
You know, the I think Trump put out a statement afterwards that he roundly defeated his opponent, Savannah Guthrie.
So, you know, yes, absolutely.
And, you know, you compare it to George Stephanopoulos, who, you know, did a play the role of a moderator, which is what he's supposed to do, which is ask questions and let the candidate speak.
I mean, at one point, Savannah Guthrie even like said to Trump, like, you're not, you're the president of the United States.
You're not somebody's crazy uncle.
It's like, who, that's not.
A moderator question.
It's not a neutral question.
And what was sad about it was, honestly, was that the questions from the audience were really good.
I mean, normal Americans have interesting questions to ask.
And it's always these, you know, the high paid journalists who think they're smarter than everybody else who have to insert themselves into every interaction.
Just let him take questions from normal Americans.
And the problem is also that, you know, as you saw from my interview with Donald Trump, I just had him on our podcast, that when he's having sort of a one on one conversation, He actually is, he can be quite charming.
He has a good interaction with people and he seemed to be having really good interactions with the voters.
And then she'd jump in every few minutes saying, Well, you didn't really answer their question or, you know, or trying to press him on.
And it was just sort of very disconcerting.
To me, you could see, you know, you could see the left wing bias in the way the whole thing was approached because the audience didn't even get to speak until 20 minutes into the town hall.
It was all her.
It was like, you know, and she was peppering him with questions about when was the last time you took a COVID test before the debate?
Why haven't you condemned white supremacy?
Why haven't you condemned the QAnon theory about satanic cults and pedophilia?
You're not the crazy uncle, blah, blah, blah.
Now, contrast that with Lester Holt's town hall with Joe Biden.
I just pulled the transcript, just looked at a few of the questions here.
So, when you heard the president was infected with COVID, were you surprised?
Did you have a moment of pause, of concern for your safety?
If you become president, can you pledge transparency about your health?
I mean, it's like the kid glove approach versus the battering ram with the boxing gloves on.
It was pretty stark, the contrast.
So, how did Trump do it?
Well, it's just, it also just is culmination of four years of his presidency.
I mean, it's just been a battering ram nonstop from the Mueller.
Probe to the impeachment to everything else.
Um, I thought he did pretty well.
I thought that he, uh, he, uh, again, when he was interacting with the audience, uh, he had good answers, and uh, and that's the side of the president people want to see, um, and that he wants to get across.
And it's just this hot, this unending hostility.
I, this is just energizing his base.
Uh, I don't know whether his base is going to be enough for him to win a second term, uh, but every this.
They, what they would, Savannah Guthrie and the NBC folks and all the mainstream media don't understand that every time they do this to Donald Trump, it just helps him because it just shows.
And here you had literally split screen comparison, you know, a textbook example of the bias that he faces every day when he's trying to do his job.
So, from that standpoint, he may have done better in not choosing to debate because I don't know.
I can't imagine Steve Scully would have been quite that activist.
But let me ask you about the white supremacy question because, once again, Once again, for the 10,000th time, he gets asked this.
And it's amazing to me, even after the blowback in the other debate about how he has answered this repeatedly, that she asked it again, like it hasn't been asked and answered.
Let me play it for the audience.
Listen.
You were asked point blank to denounce white supremacy.
In the moment, you didn't.
You asked some follow up questions, who specifically.
A couple of days later, on a different show, you denounced white supremacy.
My question to you is why does it seem like.
I denounce white supremacy.
Supremacy, okay.
You did do that.
I denounced white supremacy for years, but you always do it.
You always start off with a question.
You didn't ask Joe Biden whether or not he denounces Antifa.
I watched him on the same basic show with Lester Holt, and he was asking questions like Biden was a child.
Well, so this is a little bit of a dodge.
Wait, are you listening?
I denounce white supremacy.
Okay.
What's your next question?
Do you feel it feels something so?
It's a dodge.
She said it was a dodge by him.
Meanwhile, the guy has answered it so many times, Mark.
It's like, what's going on here?
He said it four times last night.
I mean, and he's 100% right.
They don't ask Joe Biden to denounce Antifa.
You know, these people that are running around.
And by the way, Antifa is the moral equivalent of neo Nazis.
You know, neo Nazis are people who use terrorist violence to advance a white supremacist and Nazi agenda.
Antifa are Marxists.
They're literally also the followers of a hateful ideology.
They're self described Marxist Leninists.
And they're running around beating people.
And there's Quite frankly, a lot more of them out there causing violence right now at this very moment than there are on the white supremacist side.
And no one asked Joe Biden about that.
Why did they not ask him?
So I think Trump has a very valid point.
But again, this stuff helps him.
His voters out there are just like, we can't let these people win.
They've been trying to destroy him for four years.
His voters are going to crawl over broken glass to get to the polls on election day.
Well, that's one of the things I saw last night.
I was watching.
Just YouTube had a split screen of how many people were watching the NBC debate with Trump and how many people were watching Biden.
It was like 10 times as many were tuning into Trump.
Now we'll get the ratings shortly, but zero doubt, right, that Trump is going to win in the ratings war.
He's just more interesting television.
And, but it does speak to enthusiasm to something.
I mean, Trump's voters are more motivated than ever to get out there for him.
And Biden's voters, they don't so much, according to the polls, love Biden so much as hate Trump.
And the real question is, how many are on both sides?
Well, you know, it's an interesting thing he said in my interview on our podcast.
He said that negative enthusiasm doesn't win elections, that positive enthusiasm wins elections, that they are there, that his voters are backing him.
They love him.
Joe Biden's voters are not voting because they love Joe Biden.
They're voting because they hate Trump.
And negative enthusiasm doesn't, he said, win elections.
Now, there's truth to that.
I remember in 2012, and you remember because we were debating and talking about it all the time on the Kelly file, that Mitt Romney would be president today if negative enthusiasm won election.
So the Tea Party movement had risen up.
They couldn't stand President Obama.
They wanted to drive him out of office.
And, you know, but nobody was enthusiastic about Mitt Romney.
Nobody was, you know, Can't wait till Mitt Romney's president so we can really set this country straight.
There weren't a lot of people like that, and he didn't win.
Now, clearly, this election is wide, the gap is widening, and it looks like Trump is behind, but it'll be fascinating to see whether that same thing holds true that negative enthusiasm tends to not win elections.
Well, and he also made the case that people have to rally around a positive agenda.
He made the case on your podcast in his interview with you, too, about how bringing people back to the economy and how strong it was before COVID.
and how he's the person to rebuild it.
And when you do get reminded of the record low unemployment and where the stock market was, and actually it's gone back up again, I mean, that's a good case for Trump that he's been hit with a pandemic.
And I realize the left says he could have handled it entirely differently.
And there seems to be some people on the right who agree with that too.
But for him to get back to remember how good your pocketbook was, especially because, as you pointed out, the people who say their life is better off now versus four years ago is high.
It portends very well for Trump.
It's actually a record.
So he said there's a Gallup poll that came out that says 56% of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago.
That is in the middle of a pandemic that has sparked the worst pandemic since 1918, sparked by the, which created the worst economic crisis since the 1930s and also the worst racial unrest since the 1960s.
So that is a stunning figure.
If you compare that to previous presidents going into who are running for a second term, Barack Obama, I think, had 44% said they were better off than they were four years ago.
George W. Bush in 2004, it was 47%.
Ronald Reagan, morning in America, it was like 48%.
So this is a stunning number.
And one of the things I asked him in our interview was why, you know, see 56% of Americans say they're better off now than they were four years ago, but only 42% say they're going to give you a second term.
Why is that?
What can you do to say to win those people?
And I think honestly, this is going to be the interesting test is that.
A lot of people like Donald Trump's policies, but don't like Donald Trump, right?
They approve of his stewardship of the economy, they don't approve of his behavior.
And there's this level of Trump exhaustion in the country after four years.
And it's not entirely his fault.
It's the impeachment and the Russia probe and everything else.
And then the things like his first debate performance, which just make people want to tear their hair out.
And so the question is are they comfortable enough with Joe Biden that they think, well, I did like what Donald Trump did for me, but I just can't take four more years of this.
And he needs to do what he needs to do, what he hasn't been doing, and what he needs to do in the final weeks is convince those people that the next four years won't be like the last four years on that front, that you can have the good things you like about the Trump presidency.
But we're not going to have four more years of rancor.
And he made that case on our podcast.
Trump is who he is.
I mean, the thought that he's going to change his stripes going into a second term, I don't know.
I mean, my own personal opinion, I'm not really a political advisor, but is he should just tout his record.
Just tout his record.
No, COVID was not handled perfectly.
By the way, it was handled really badly by a bunch of Democratic governors, too.
But when you look at how he's handled the economy, it's hard to argue against the numbers pre COVID and The thought that he could get it back.
I don't know.
I think this is why dumb tweets like maybe Bin Laden wasn't killed by SEAL Team Six are utterly unhelpful.
I agree with you 100%, Megan.
But it's two things it's his dumb tweets and things he says, and also just the constant attacks on him, right?
The constant effort.
I mean, from day one, trying to bring down his presidency, undo the 2016 election, which is what's been going on.
What he said to me was that.
He thought that after impeachment, there was about a month or two when Democrats started coming up to him and saying, okay, let's try and get some stuff done together.
You know, it seemed like it was finally over.
And then COVID came and they saw that he was weakened and they saw maybe we can win this after all and we can destroy him.
So he thinks that, at least on their side, that if he wins this election, they're going to have to accept that he's president finally and that there's going to be a chance for more bipartisanship.
That doesn't mean he's not going to be Donald Trump and he's not going to do what he does.
And that's never going to change.
But just it would be nice to think that maybe people could put aside their animus and actually try and put the American people first for a change.
Well, and I think, you know, when he gets out there, he made a speech, I think, in Pennsylvania the other night where he and he's trailing with suburban women in states like Pennsylvania, if you believe the polls.
And he said, Why won't you like me?
Please like me.
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I laughed out loud.
It made me laugh out loud because Trump, that's the Trump that works.
The self deprecating, funny, charming Trump, as opposed to the weird tweeter Trump, who's out there about the SEAL Team Six.
He should be going with that stuff, like an acknowledgement that maybe he's behind in certain polls or with certain groups.
And just to remind people, look, I realize I'm not the smoothest guy.
I realize I've got some tough edges, but that's what you need.
And look at your pocketbook and who do you trust?
Biden's going to lock you up and the economy up for the next four years, and I'm going to get it.
That's great.
He should keep doing that.
Of course, the internet melted down because I said something kind about Trump.
Well, guess what?
He can be quite charming when he turns it on, and he's got three more weeks to turn it on in full.
You're 100% right.
You know, it's funny if you go back to 2004, to Bush's reelection, his convention speech, he had a section in there because there were a lot of people who were put off by Bush's swagger, right?
And so he had this great little line where he says, I know that, you know, I'm paraphrasing now, but I know that, you know, my personality rubs people sort of the wrong way.
Some people say I have a certain swagger.
In Texas, we call that walking.
And, you know, and if I'm a little bit too blunt sometimes, Blame that white haired lady in the rafters.
And it brought the house down, but it was an acknowledgement to people like, I get it.
I know that you don't like certain things about me.
And Donald Trump should have done and still could do something like that, saying, look, I'm a New Yorker.
I'm brash.
I say what I mean.
I know that rubs some people the wrong way.
But the question is, do you want the economy to come back the way it was?
Or do you want to go back to the people who were Where you weren't happy with four years ago, because that's the choice.
Just a nod to that that lets people have the permission structure to say, okay, he gets it.
He knows he annoys me.
I can vote in my own self interest.
Yeah, I don't have to have dinner with him every night.
I have to have him working to keep the economy going, so I've got money in my pocket back.
Okay, now I want to.
We're going to ask Mark about what's happening at the Amy Coney Barrett hearings because there were some absurd moments over the past day or two.
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Okay, Mark, we have this feature called Sound Up.
Here on the Megan Kelly Show, where we talk about sound bites that are making the news.
Sexual Preference Court Case 00:15:49
And I've been watching this Amy Coney Barrett hearing with horror.
And I wanted to ask you about a couple.
So Spartacus is back, Cory Booker, Senator Booker, who's always looking to make it about himself.
I don't know if he's crying in this clip.
I want your opinion on this exchange that he had, I think it was on Thursday.
Listen.
You've already spoken towards issues of racism and how you deplore it.
But I want to just ask you very simply, and I imagine you'll give me a very short, resolute answer.
But you condemn white supremacy, correct?
Yes.
Thank you.
I'm glad to see that you said that.
I wish our president would say that so resolutely and unequivocally as well.
But we are at a time that Americans are literally fearful because their president cannot do that in the resolute manner in which you did.
I'm sorry that that question had to even be asked at this time.
Now, first of all, there's no crying in Senate confirmation hearings.
That's just a rule.
There's no crying.
No crying in baseball.
No crying, sir.
She's crying.
It's one of the greatest movies.
It's a league of their own.
But so what did you make?
I mean, again, again.
And now with Amy Coney Barrett, like there's not even, there's no allegation that Amy Coney Barrett has any inclination towards white super.
What is that about?
I think he's crying because Amy Coney Barrett's going to be confirmed and there's nothing he can do about it.
I mean, that's just simple fact.
I mean, look, the Democrats are in a box of their own making.
So they made the catastrophic decision because, in a peak of anger over the Merrick Garland, the Republicans blocking Garland, when Neil Gorsuch was nominated, they filibustered him.
He was the most qualified person put up to the Supreme Court by even liberals who came out in favor of him, like Neil Catyal and others.
And they still.
Filibustered him.
If they hadn't filibustered Neil Gorsuch, Republicans would have never gotten rid of the filibuster for Supreme Court justices.
If they hadn't gotten the filibuster, then Brett Kavanaugh would not be on the court today because he couldn't get 60 votes.
And guess what?
Amy Cody Barrett would not be about to be put on the Supreme Court because they couldn't get 60 votes.
60 votes for her.
So, this is something that the Democrats did to themselves.
If they had kept that 60 vote threshold, Kavanaugh would have gone down and this wouldn't be possible today.
Yeah, they started with that.
I understand why he's crying.
I get why he's crying.
I'd be crying if I was as dumb as they were, too.
Okay, it really wasn't smart.
That's just the bottom line.
Okay, enter Kamala Harris, who decided to do the hearing remotely and decided to try to set Amy Coney Barrett up.
Listen.
Do you accept that COVID 19 is infectious?
I think yes, I do accept that COVID 19 is infectious.
That's something of which I feel like we could say you take judicial notice of.
It's an obvious fact, yes.
Do you accept that smoking causes cancer?
I'm not sure exactly where you're going with this, but the notice that smoking causes cancer.
The question is what it is.
You can answer it if you believe me.
Yes or no?
Senator Harris, yes, every package of cigarettes warns that smoking causes cancer.
And do you believe that climate change is happening and is threatening the air we breathe and the water we drink?
Senator, again, I was wondering where you were going with that.
You have asked me a series of questions that are completely uncontroversial, like whether COVID 19 is infectious, whether smoking causes cancer, and then trying to analogize that to eliciting an opinion on me that is a very contentious matter, opinion from me that is on a very contentious matter of public debate.
And I will not do that.
Express a view on a matter of public policy, especially one that is politically controversial because that's inconsistent with the judicial role, as I have explained.
Thank you, Judge Barrett.
And basically said, you know, no, for the record, you didn't answer that.
You wouldn't say.
I mean, first of all, the approach to her, right, is as if Amy Coney Barrett is a defendant in a criminal case, right?
She's an esteemed jurist.
She's been a Notre Dame professor.
She's adopted two children.
She has seven.
It's like, why are we treating her like she's some troll who we need to berate?
It's like, I don't know.
What did you think?
I think that she is so smart, and the way she saw it, you just watch her mind working, and she saw where this was going.
She was ready for it, and she didn't take the bait.
I think the best comment on Twitter I saw was that I feel sorry for Amy Coney Barrett's husband because he obviously never wins any arguments at home.
She's so calm, so collected, didn't take the bait.
She's so smart, and she's going to be a fantastic Supreme Court justice.
And honestly, to equate.
It to equate climate change, which is controversial.
There are a lot of differing opinions on that, to whether cigarettes cause cancer, which, as Barrett points out, is written right on their packs.
It's just absurd.
Talk about, I mean, in the law, you get an objection to improper impeachment and it would be sustained.
Okay, one more greatest hit for you from who else but Maisie Hirono, who decided to go the are you bigoted way?
Listen.
Not once, but twice.
You use the term sexual preference to describe those in the LGBTQ community.
And let me make clear sexual preference is an offensive and outdated term.
It is used by anti LGBTQ activists to suggest that sexual orientation is a choice.
It is not.
Sexual orientation is a key part of a person's identity.
That sexual orientation is both a normal expression of human sexuality and immutable was a key part.
Maisie Hirono.
And sadly, and then Amy Coney Barrett apologized if she had said anything offensive.
And then that day, Merriam Webster changed the definition of sexual preference in the dictionary.
To note that it is, quote, offensive.
I mean, tell it to Joe Biden, who used that term earlier this year, as have half of the Americans in this country.
Yeah, and I mean, I think our friend Guy Benson tweeted out an article from The Advocate using it, you know, which is a gay magazine.
Right.
And Guy is openly gay.
Yes, exactly.
So, I mean, it's just, first of all, you know, I think this is probably a term that's been used in law on this for a long time.
It may be, I mean, it's hard to keep up with what terms are okay and are not because it's changing so constantly.
Constantly in the cancel culture.
So it's hard to keep up.
And I guess she hadn't gotten the press release that sexual preference was no longer an okay term.
But this is the same Maisie Hirono who was questioning whether her Catholicism disqualified her.
So it's a little bit rich for her to be suggesting that she's a bigot in any way when Maisie Hirono thinks that faithful Catholics shouldn't be serving as judges.
Well, and meanwhile, I mean, who can keep up?
Because in today's day and age, it's like the kids are.
They're straight one day and then they're pansexual the next day, meaning they like everybody.
They haven't settled on a preference.
And then they're gay or they're like, I can't keep it.
So the kids today are telling us it might be fluid.
Maybe you're born with a.
But maybe it could change.
Well, that's right.
Yeah, because they say gender is fluid, right?
Gender's not determined on birth.
Your sexual preference could be fluid too.
So I don't know.
Maybe it's her disdain, like her dripping sanctimony and Speaking to Amy Coney Barrett as though she's, you know, she's sitting, as though Amy Coney Barrett is sitting there in a white hat with a white robe.
And it's like, she said sexual preference.
Calm down.
I just, I hate these hearings because they always make me want to punch somebody in the face.
I really, no one gets to me like lawmakers, like stupid lawmakers get to me.
And that's what you're seeing a lot of stupid lawmakers trying to score political points, but the American public are too smart for them.
And here's the bottom line Amy Coney Barrett is getting confirmed.
I'll give you the last word.
You must be very frustrated then because there's a lot of stupid lawmakers.
But all I can say, Megan, is the last time we had a Supreme Court justice hearing, it was the Kavanaugh hearings.
And compared to that, this was just like a walk in the park.
So I think they realized that what they did to Brett Kavanaugh cost them control of the Senate.
They lost at least, we can document three Senate seats where the Kavanaugh hearings were the deciding factor that cost them.
Senate, the sitting Democratic senators.
And so they realized if they went after Amy Coney Barrett the way they did Kavanaugh, they were going to blow their chances in this election.
So they decided to stand down.
So this is their way of looking tough while they're throwing in the white towel.
And I'll take it.
Yeah, exactly.
Mark Giesen, such a pleasure.
Great to be on with you, Megan.
Thank you.
See you soon, I hope.
Okay, coming up in a minute, we're going to have Bob Beckle joining us here on the Megan Kelly Show, along with Frank Luntz, who did a focus group last night on what we witnessed.
And they've got some thoughts.
On the moderation.
Stay tuned.
Joining me now, Bob Beckel.
Bob Beckel, president of the Bobcast, which I love.
Bob, so good to have you here.
How are you?
I'm fine, Nate.
And how about yourself?
I'm doing great.
I miss seeing you.
What is the Bobcast?
Is it a podcast?
Well, it was, but actually, what happened was I had just went through three back operations.
So I've been laid out for about a year now.
Oh, my goodness.
I'll get back at it.
I have no doubt.
I've been watching this crazy election cycle and wondering what you think of it.
I have no doubt you are not a Donald Trump fan.
But what do you think about where we are now?
I guess it's really.
Just over, you know, it's about two and a half weeks away from election day.
What's the state of the race?
Well, I mean, unless they somehow defy everything I know about campaign politics, presidential politics, and polling, Trump is in the worst shape of anybody who's been an incumbent president trying to get reelected.
The real problem he's got is, I mean, last night was a classic example.
He sounded like he was at a rally with his people talking about those strange things, but in a silent room like that, it just seemed, well, it seemed like Trump.
Biden, on the other hand, did his contrast, which he wanted to do, which was to sound presidential, to talk about his issues on domestic and foreign policy and the virus.
So I think you saw two very different types of American politician last night.
And I mean, the Biden town hall, the Biden town hall, what I thought when I switched over was this is so boring.
And then I thought boring is exactly what millions of Americans may want after four years.
What do you think?
Yeah, they're just, look, I think people are just tired of Trump, to be honest with you.
I mean, it's the same thing every day.
He dominates the news, and he does that by saying outrageous things and apparently doesn't care about having checks.
And he, when you look at it, and with this coronavirus behind it as a backdrop, he looks even more in it.
And I think that's probably exactly where Joe wants it.
You know, I mean, I'm trying to think about what I would do if I were 11 points down in a presidential race with less than three weeks to go.
What is it that Trump could do?
Is there an October surprise?
I think the answer to that is no, you know, unless he decides to go to war with somebody.
About that, and he's not going to have a virus, he's going to be able to say it's a bill.
Uh, and I think that last debate is probably now going to shape up to be, uh, certainly to Biden's strength on foreign policy.
But, um, if Trump keeps going on in the manner he's going on, people just remind you about how off center he is.
But let me let me ask you about the polls because you know about polls, and there were a couple good articles posted on realclearpolitics.com today talking about how.
This time, last time around, October 14th through 16th, you had Monmouth, CBS News, NBC Wall Street Journal, all showing Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump.
And now some of those same polls and averages are showing Biden 11 points ahead in the race.
And then when you look at the battleground states, it shows that this time, last time around, it showed that Hillary Clinton was up 3.8 in Florida.
Right now it shows Biden up 2.7 in Florida.
Michigan showed Hillary Clinton up 10.7 over Trump.
Right now shows Biden up 7.2 over Trump.
North Carolina showed her up three over Trump.
Shows Joe Biden up 3.3 over Trump.
In Pennsylvania, showed her up 8.3 over Trump.
Shows Joe Biden up seven over Trump.
Wisconsin showed her 6.7 over Trump.
Now it's showing Joe Biden up 6.3 over Trump.
All of those are states Trump won.
Trump won.
So why should we believe he's headed for a defeat?
You know, this is a question I get asked all the time.
And I think it's.
It's a hangover from 2016 because it was an entirely different race, an entirely different situation.
You had a candidate on the Democratic side who, frankly, wasn't very well liked.
You went into an election day in 16 with both candidates having.
Negatives in the mid 50s.
And so that's one difference.
I mean, I think people, they may not be overly excited about Biden, but I think they feel more comfortable about him.
I do polling myself, and I like to do open ended questions.
And for the first time last week, I've seen the word Joe come up.
You know, it's just like Joe.
Yeah, I like Joe.
And before you didn't, you know, there wasn't anything personal about it.
And I think he's.
Played very, very well.
I had a conversation with one of his people the other day.
I said, You know, Bob, we're able to accomplish this.
And despite the disease, I said, Are you kidding me?
Are you kidding me?
Do you think these numbers would be where they are now without the virus?
Of course not.
It played everything to Biden's advantage.
He didn't have to campaign and make a lot of mistakes.
And it allowed Trump to be out there.
Making frankly a fool of himself.
So that's that.
The economy was in much better shape than it is now.
But beyond that, this is Trump versus Trump.
I mean, did we get what we wanted to get for voting for this guy?
And I think the answer to that pretty much is no.
But beyond that, you know, the turnout was very low last time.
Trump's Campaign Mistakes 00:15:33
And now it's setting all kinds of records for early voting.
Okay, let me ask you about that because I don't.
Totally understand early voting and mail in voting and how people keep a thumb on that.
But what I read today is this is in the Chicago Tribune that they're not showing any Democratic advantage there.
In Michigan and Ohio and Wisconsin, the Republicans are keeping pace or are ahead when it comes to the early and mail in votes.
So that is not really the narrative we're being fed that the Democrats are killing it in the early vote.
And that's some sort of a sign of enthusiasm on their part.
Do you?
I agree with it partially, but only because in certain states like North Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, the Democrats are very far ahead of the Republicans.
But they always are, right?
Aren't they always in North Carolina and they usually lose it?
Well, always is a general question.
I mean, can Trump lose North Carolina as a Republican?
The answer is absolutely.
Why is he behind in North Carolina and Florida?
Well, one, because he is who he is.
But secondly, there's been a vast migration in 40 years for baby boomers retiring, going to Florida and going to North Carolina.
So I think that's a big part of it.
And the other thing is that, you know, when you talk about the Midwestern states, the reason the Republicans are doing better in turning their ballots is there's such a minority in those states.
You know, in Wisconsin, it was 1.3 to 1 Democratic.
And it's gotten closer than that as people have left that part of the Midwest.
So there's a lot of different atmospheres going on here.
Yeah, the states are changing.
Their makeup is changing.
But what do you make of the old secret Trump vote?
Because there's an IBD TIPP poll out now saying 20% of registered voters, and I realize we're supposed to be looking at likely voters, but this one polled registered voters, and 20% said that they are uncomfortable revealing their preferred candidate.
To pollsters.
And I feel like, well, that's got to be Trump people.
Because is anybody embarrassed to admit they're voting for Biden?
It's the media that shamed everybody about Donald Trump.
So, you know, Trump's supporters.
They say there's a secret Trump vote, there's a shy Trump vote.
I'll tell you, just as a lay person, I look at him calling in with my buddy Mark Thiessen on his podcast, going on Newsmax, which has pretty low ratings with respect to Chris Ruddy, who owns it, and sort of blanketing the field.
And I think that those are not the moves of somebody who has good internal polls.
But you tell me.
Yeah, well, I could tell you, I look at probably, I would say, 200 different polls a week, and I do one myself.
What's changed here is that the demographics of the country in four years have changed.
Baby boomers have become seniors now, the front end of them.
Older people generally who voted heavily Republican have now split their vote or slightly gone towards Biden.
I don't know what more Trump could have done to anger the African American community, but when he stands there and says, I've done more than Abraham Lincoln, I mean, It just, and you're black and you listen to that.
You say, you guys are crazy.
Right.
That's not a good line.
And one might consider that hyperbole.
You might.
But this much hyperbole is too much hyperbole.
I mean, I.
Well, can I ask you about this?
This one made some news last night with Joe Biden talking about how cops should handle criminals.
And he had some advice.
He had some advice for the police, which made some headlines.
Let's listen to the soundbite.
We can do this.
You can ban chokeholds.
But beyond that, you have to teach people how to de escalate circumstances.
De escalate.
So instead of anybody coming at you, and the first thing you do is shoot to kill, you shoot them in the leg.
There's ways you have to.
Oh, boy.
Shoot them in the leg, which is, you know, of course, immediately people responded on Twitter, law enforcement and people who understand saying, number one, you have to be an expert marksman, every cop who gets attacked.
Number two, the target must not be moving in order to get them in the leg.
Number three, a leg wound does not immediately incapacitate a subject.
Even shooting them in the heart doesn't always automatically incapacitate them.
And they say this is why so many cops support Donald Trump and not Joe Biden.
What'd you make of that?
Well, I think as a general rule, police believe that the Republicans are better for them than the Democrats because the Democrats will put regulations on them and Trump won't.
But the idea that somehow we, well, let me say this when it first came out, defunding the police.
Which was a crazy idea.
And Biden immediately said no.
What he's talking about is priority for police dollars.
And there should be, as one last night about rehabilitation, you know, I'm a recovering alcoholic and I understand the importance of that.
And you've got prisons that are stuffed with people on marijuana charges, and the country's come around on that.
We've had a wholesale shift.
So, you know, Trump's been pretty good on criminal justice reform.
That's one thing that the left, Got from him, but doesn't really want to give him much credit for.
Bob, let me ask you, because we've got one more debate to go and we've got not long until Election Day.
So, how important is that last debate and what's your prediction for November 3rd?
Very important, very, very much more than they ever were before.
I think it's strictly on foreign policy.
And that is not Trump's long suit and it is Biden.
So, that's a big advantage.
Now, unless Joe stumbles and And he has a seizure or something on the set.
I think that he's got big advantages going in.
Now, by the time he does go in, his expectations are going to be high, the way they were for Trump in the first one.
Trump could not make those expectations, and Biden easily could.
I think that reverses some, but in the end, Biden just knows too much.
And what's going to happen around the election?
I think it's possible, looking at the enthusiasm questions that we put on polls, that Democrats could actually put Biden over the top on election day.
Of course, my question then is if they did, would Trump want to count ballots?
I have to keep ballots.
He would, right?
The answer is yes.
Yes, right.
In the end, I think Biden will get somewhere around 330 to 340 electoral votes, but Trump will be under 200.
That would be a trouncing.
Bob Beckel predicting a trouncing.
Bob, so good to talk to you.
Love hearing your perspective.
Let's do it again soon.
You too.
Thanks.
Bye bye.
Joining us now in two seconds is Frank Luntz, a world-renowned pollster and political strategist.
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And joining me now, political strategist and pollster Frank Luntz.
Frank, so good to have you here.
Thank you for coming on.
Oh, it's a pleasure.
It's also an honor.
Same.
So, okay, let's start with what you thought of last night's town halls.
I know you did a focus group, but let me ask you what Frank Lentz thought before we get to the focus group.
I was as interested in the process as I was in the candidates and the different methodology that Savannah Guthrie used at NBC and George Stephanopoulos used at ABC.
I love the town hall format because it takes it away from pundits like me or journalists like you and puts it in the hands of the voters.
And I think that's so important, particularly now.
It's the one voice that we're not hearing from.
And it was really annoying to me, not even just upsetting, that it took 20 minutes for the embassy, for the NBC town hall to actually become a town hall.
They even advertised it as a town hall, and no voter actually spoke until 21 minutes into the show.
And I thought that that was a disgrace.
Over at ABC, maybe I could have been critical of George Stephanopoulos for not pushing Joe Biden tougher.
But in the end, it really is about the candidate and the voter, and we get a chance to see how they interact with America.
And that's what I tuned in for.
That's what I expected.
And NBC did not deliver that last night.
Well, and it could have been an opportunity to see Trump interacting directly with regular folks, and he Tends to do very well with that.
He does less well with the press, which clearly hates him for the most part.
And you could see that last night.
NBC, they're not rooting for Trump, and Savannah Guthrie's clearly not rooting for Trump, which you're not supposed to be able to tell, but it was clear.
Whereas Trump directly with the voters, he probably would have had more of an exchange like we saw on ABC between Biden and the voters.
Kind of nice, kind of sweet.
When he had that one, the woman's like, Your smile's so beautiful.
It was kind of cute.
It was sweet.
He smiled in response.
Those moments can help a politician.
But I would say he had the rug pulled out from under him in the forum he chose to go to.
Well, it wasn't.
I don't think he knew it.
And I think it was disgraceful.
Well, Savannah Guthrie is probably has a better reputation among her colleagues today than she did 24 hours ago.
But she, because he really did take Trump to the cleaners.
But I don't think voters are better off.
And I think that if you look at it objectively, the ABC function forum was much more helpful in helping people make up their minds.
And the embassy, I keep doing that.
I just spoke at an embassy.
You know why?
I just spoke at an embassy to a bunch of ambassadors, so I've got that on my brain.
But the NBC effort was clearly about the host rather than about the voters.
And nobody benefits from that.
You've got less than three weeks to go.
Let the people be heard, let them speak.
And unfortunately, they don't get that opportunity.
And honestly, we've heard enough from the journalists.
I feel like the press gets drunk on its own wine and then won't shut up.
And last night, when the first person stood up at the NBC town hall, it was an ER doc and her daughter, and she asked a good question, which is, What are you going to do to get the economy back on track?
Which is actually something the American people want to know.
As fun as it may be to pepper Trump with questions on when was the last negative diagnosis of COVID before you came out with a positive, and why would you retweet these weird tweets about QAnon?
I mean, that's like maybe fun for the journalist to try to score points with other media.
But my imaginary viewer, Madge, she lives in Iowa in my head.
She wants to know when the economy is getting back on track and what he's going to do.
So there was a frustration there.
What about your focus group?
How did they react?
So I finally understood and understand what the issue is, why these people are so undecided.
And it's a negative decision for them.
The question is, which is more negative for them?
They've decided that they don't like Donald Trump as a person, but they think that this administration's been okay.
They decided that they are afraid of Joe Biden and the things that he wants to do, but that they like him very much.
And so they're trying to make up their minds do I put up with four more years of Trump for policies I agree with?
Do I welcome Joe Biden into my life for four years, even though he scares me about the things that he may do?
And that's why they're undecided.
They haven't figured out which is more important the fact that they love one candidate on policy or that they love one candidate's persona.
Is there any history to suggest what happens in the end of these races, like the last minute breaks for the incumbent?
Or do we know anything from the past about how these undecideds will likely go in the next 18 days?
We absolutely do.
And the best example of this happened in 1980 when the final debate was just six days before the election.
Ronald Reagan was one point behind Jimmy Carter.
Reagan did so well, scored so well.
He was so personable and so Empathetic in that debate, even though Jimmy Carter tried to demonize him, that debate helped Reagan collect the entire undecideds that were left.
And he went from one point down to nine points up in less than a week.
And that's what Trump's counting on.
The problem with Trump is that he's got one of the lowest favorability ratings.
And I want to apologize.
This is a genuine podcast.
This is authentic.
I am in a home that's under construction.
And even though they are two rooms away, I know you can hear the banging and hollering.
But the people who are listening in, this is the way it is.
No, no, you can barely hear it.
If you're like 18 days, 19 days before an election, you do your interviews wherever you can get space.
So I'm in my pantry right now.
There is, I'll even step aside, there's nothing here except a little bit of paint and some spackle.
But this is the only place I can set my computer down to talk to you now.
Well, I appreciate it.
I hope it's a comfortable closet.
Oh, no, it's awful.
It's actually there's undrunk water, there's trash on the floor.
This is my own little shit show, just like the first debate.
Frank Lund's in the lapse of luxury.
The undecided voter tends to break for the challenger two to one.
The First Debate Shit Show 00:09:44
Oh, really?
Yes.
Now, I don't even know if there are enough voters left at this point for Donald Trump to be even in this race.
Okay, can we talk about that?
Can we talk about that?
Because, you know, this is what the Trump voters are putting all their hopes into.
They are hoping that there is a shy Trump vote that's big enough that it'll put them over the edge the way it did the last time, the way it did against Hillary.
We just went through the polls where we had Bob Beckle on a minute ago talking about how Hillary was up 11 points, double digit leads over him at this point in the last race, as Biden appears to be now.
And Trump beat her.
So, what do you think of that?
Well, but first off, Trump actually lost to her by 2.1%.
And I know that there are people who will listen to this podcast and say, ah, but the polls are wrong.
The truth is, the polls weren't wrong.
They were wrong state by state, but they had the national numbers almost dead on.
The real clear politics average on election day gave Hillary Clinton a 2.8% margin.
She came in and won with 2.1%.
Being off by 0.7% is not a big deal.
But when it comes to the Electoral College, which is the only thing that matters, I mean, I realize the Democrats are very focused on the popular vote, but no one else cares because all we care about is electoral college.
She was up in every state.
She was up in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, even Ohio a couple weeks at this point in the race last time around.
And Trump won all of those states.
Yes.
Well, I remember your interview because I've shown it perhaps 100 times of Larry Sabato when he gives the whole list of all the states that she's up and that he thinks she's going to win.
And you said, well, what about these states?
You actually gave him a scenario.
And he says, I can see it, but I don't believe it.
And the two of you laughed.
48 hours later, nobody was laughing when Trump actually ran the trifecta.
That does happen.
But pollsters figure out what they got wrong.
Polsters are held accountable for the numbers that they have.
I got the election night numbers from Fox News.
And so I assumed that Fox numbers would be correct, and they weren't.
Well, you know what?
Even going out onto the set that night in 2016, we as the anchors get to meet with the Exit pollsters, you know, they get the people who are on our decision desk who have met, who have read the initial exit polls and who will ultimately be calling the race behind the scenes.
And their initial report was that it looked to be a very good night for Hillary Clinton.
Even that night, the initial reports were, she's winning.
And then, of course, it was that until it wasn't until they decided to take away the fireworks and the balloons at the center that she was in in New York.
And so I think, you know, most Trump voters think he's a closer.
Think that those numbers on are you better off now than you were four years ago are going to bring people home and excite the Republicans into getting out there.
But if Joe Biden wins, Frank.
Who will have made the difference?
Will it be the Democrats were more enthusiastic this time?
Because that's what did her in last time.
They were like, A, she's probably got it.
And B, she kind of sucks.
So, like, they weren't excited to go.
But so, what do you think would be the difference this time?
Donald Trump is the difference this time.
He's not the same man that he was four years ago.
He's not the same candidate.
Four years ago, he focused on the concerns of the voters.
Now he talks about himself.
Four years ago, he was fighting for the ignored and the forgotten.
Now he's fighting to get justice for his own reputation.
Four years ago, people disliked him, but they understood him.
And they thought that he was the kind of guy who would fight for them.
Now they see him as being more focused on his own reputation than their livelihoods.
And that is the number one reason why he's doing worse.
And then demographically, it's been a meltdown for him among white women who he won in 2016.
And particularly moms with children.
Who do not like rushing their kids back to school, who are still nervous about COVID.
And Trump's virtual dismissal of people's anxiety over the virus just really rubs white women the wrong way.
So, you think that's what it is?
Because I know he's struggling with women, suburban women.
You think it's the COVID response as opposed to his sharp edges?
I think it's both.
And I think that he's applying the sharp edges.
It's a great way.
Although, you know, I'm a language person.
Yeah.
That is a really good way to describe.
I'm going to use that for the next 17, 18 days.
So thank you.
This interview turned out to have been very useful.
Frank Luntz is the author of Words That Work.
I remember promoting it a lot on the Kelly file.
But I do wonder because he had those sharp edges four years ago and he was still put into office.
I don't think they've gotten sharper.
But you are right.
He complains about his own situation a lot more than he used to.
Yeah, but except there's a four year difference.
When someone is annoying to you, you still see their good parts.
After four years, those bad parts start to grow and grow and become more significant.
And the things that you liked about someone, they start to fade into the distance.
Right now, our undecided voters believe that Donald Trump has been a decent president and they believe the economy was really good and they benefited from it and they are better off.
But they don't like the sharp edges, they don't like the constant barrage.
And they're now Not only are they fed up with it, but they're exhausted from it.
So, what's the opportunity then for him going into the third debate?
You know, I'm a mother, and what I've realized now is teachers never give you any sort of negative feedback.
They just talk about opportunities.
We have a real opportunity here in math, right?
So, what are the real opportunities that Donald Trump has in this third debate?
Yeah, and that's why people like teachers and they hate education.
That's why our kids are doing so badly because no, Johnny and Susie simply are getting C's and D's and they suck at math.
They need a tutor and they can't get the answer right and they got to stop cheating and they got to stop picking on the kid next to them.
They're not opportunities.
They're, in some cases, problems.
They're problems, yes.
And they need solutions.
The advice I would give to Trump is very simple and he would never, ever take it.
In a word, humility.
In a second word, apologize.
Oh, stop it.
Yeah, no, that's what I would advise.
There must be some paint fumes in that closet.
There is zero chance of any apology from Donald Trump.
There never has been one, ever.
By the way, here's the spackle that I'm probably inhaling right now.
It is, these are the things that he needs to do.
These are the things that the public wants from him.
I don't agree with you.
I think if he came out and apologized for anything, you could go down the list.
Right now in the Republican Party, there's a backlash against apologizing.
They're sick of being made to apologize.
I think they like about Trump that he doesn't apologize.
And so I don't know.
I agree with you that if he came out and he smiled a lot and he, Turned on the charm and he was a little self deprecating, that could work.
But I don't think they want to see weakness.
His own people don't want to, but his own people are voting for him and no one's going to not vote for him because he shows a little bit of vulnerability.
So is it about turnout?
I mean, is it what if, do you think he's going to get more Republicans out this time than he got last?
Yes, I do.
But the Democrats are going to get way more of their voters than last time.
And Donald Trump cannot win simply by turning out everybody who voted for him.
Because Trump's voters are more than 10 years older than Biden voters.
And Trump voters are, so many of them from 2016 aren't even alive in 2020.
And all these new voters, the 18, 19, 20, 21 year olds who just entered this voting system, by 70, 30, they support Joe Biden.
They're not going to vote.
They're not going to vote.
Every four years they say they're going to vote, and they don't.
They don't.
They didn't even vote for Barack Obama.
They don't come out in record numbers.
They just make noise prior to the election.
I think it's going to be a lot tighter than people are saying.
And I definitely think Trump still has a chance to win this.
I'll give you the last word.
I hope that the country comes out the winner.
I actually am more concerned about America the day after the election than I am about America the election day.
That I think that we need to treat each other with more respect and more civility, that we need to embrace all that is good about America and Americans, not just the country.
And that I'm hoping that these last.
Two and a half weeks, we give Americans a lesson in civics.
And part of that is the role of the Constitution, the importance of the Declaration, and an appreciation for what makes this country unique.
That to me is the highest priority.
And I'm hoping that the two candidates will do that next Thursday night.
More respect and civility.
You're cute, Frank.
It's good to talk to you.
Thank you.
Look, it may be pie in the sky, but we can dream, can't we?
We absolutely can and should.
And we'll continue to talk to you soon.
I hope.
Thank you, man.
Hope for Civility 00:02:02
One never knows, right?
Hope does spring eternal.
I mean, listen, no matter who wins, that's what we want more respect and civility, though the country certainly seems to be going in another direction.
Anyway, who knows?
We'll find out.
My only hope is that whoever wins, it's by a strong enough margin that the other one goes away quietly, whoever it is.
Look, I want to thank Frank Luntz.
I want to thank Bob Beckel.
It's so good to talk to these guys and Mark Teason as well.
These are some of my favorites from the Kelly file who I haven't gotten the chance to talk to in a long time.
Great to hear their voice and their analysis, which I've missed a lot.
And listen, if you're enjoying the podcast, stay tuned.
First of all, A, go subscribe, go download, go rate, and go review, please, on Apple and iTunes, because I read them all and it's super fun.
But also, don't forget to tune in on Monday and download that episode because we're going to have Abigail Schreier.
She's the woman who wrote that book, Irreversible Damage.
And she went on Joe Rogan.
This is what's causing him all that trouble with the Spotify employees.
They're angry about the interview, about the book, and so on.
It is a provocative book, but it's really interesting and it sounds the alarm on some dangerous possibilities.
It's not an anti trans book.
It's about. what's happening with teenage girls and whether there are clusters of sort of a peer contagion when it comes to trans issues.
In any event, it's one of the most interesting reads I've had in months.
And her thoughts on being a woman in America and the messages we're sending little girls right now, I thought were the most fascinating part of the book.
We get into all of it on Monday.
In the meantime, have a great weekend.
Thanks for listening to The Megyn Kelly Show.
No BS, no agenda, and no fear.
The Megyn Kelly Show is a devil-may-care media production in collaboration with Red Seat Ventures.
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