Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson reveals that Donald Trump reportedly considered nuclear strikes against Iran before General Kane intervened, while speculating the downed F-15 pilot was part of a failed clandestine rescue mission near Natanz. Johnson critiques the US naval blockade as ineffective, noting all 34 Iranian oil ships recently bypassed it, and warns China benefits from undermining the petrodollar. He predicts Trump will seek a modified JCPOA deal by Sunday to lift sanctions before the War Powers Act deadline expires, highlighting the conflict's potential to trigger a Gulf humanitarian crisis if power plants are targeted. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, Qwen/Qwen3-ForcedAligner-0.6B, sat-12l-sm, and large-v3-turbo
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CIA Analyst Larry Johnson00:15:15
All right, and we are live.
What's up, guys?
Welcome to the stream.
I am here with Larry Johnson.
Larry, welcome to the show, man.
Let me, real quick, can you introduce yourself to the people, real quick, for those that might not know who you are?
Yeah, I'm a has been.
I did a few years with the Central Intelligence Agency, both worked operations for a little bit, but mostly as an analyst.
I also spent four years with the U.S. State Department's Office of Counterterrorism.
And then I embarked on a consulting career that.
You're coming in a little bit low, Larry.
Turn up your mic if you can.
Yeah.
How's that?
Is that any better?
That's better now.
Yeah, now and now.
And I turn your volume up too so they can hear you.
All right.
Sorry about that.
I think the volume.
I'm not sure where the volume control is.
You sound better though.
You're good.
And I turned you up on my side too.
Okay.
But I started a 24 year consulting career that involved scripting exercises for the U.S. military special operations forces.
That means I worked with Delta Force, SEAL Team 6.
And a number of other units.
I'm still highly classified, as well as did international financial investigations, product counterfeiting, money laundering.
So I was fortunate because I didn't get pigeonholed.
I worked with the intelligence side of the house, the military side of the house, the policy side of the house.
I worked with law enforcement, with the FBI.
And so I got to sort of see the whole picture.
Most people with a government career get stovepiped, they see only through one little lens.
I got to see sort of the whole enchilada.
Yeah.
For better or for worse.
Yeah, no.
And, you know, me coming from law enforcement myself, especially from the law enforcement world, you know, I try to explain to people that intelligence and law enforcement is so different.
And, you know, you guys, like the Intel world, they operate like on a different type of timing, right?
In the law enforcement world, you're trying to gather evidence to present a case in front of people that don't have a clearance.
So everything has to be discoverable versus when you're dealing with classified stuff, that stuff is discoverable.
And a lot of times you can't use it in court.
So it's.
Significantly different endeavor.
Yeah, I mean, I got introduced to that early on with the Pan Am 103 case.
The plane was blown up, and we finally figured out it was done by a couple of Libyans.
They used a Miibo timer that came out of Switzerland.
But the way we found the Miibo timer was CIA had picked it up in the course of an operation.
So then the issue came because CIA can collect intelligence.
They don't have to worry about following chain of custody.
They don't have to worry about a discovery process.
So there's entirely, as Myron is pointing out, there's an entirely different mindset and procedures governing how you handle law enforcement evidence as opposed to intelligence.
Intelligence, and in fact, like I said, if from an intelligence asset, I want to find out everything that Myron's doing in his personal life.
So I, you know, I'd use a variety of methods to get that information.
If I want to do that for a law enforcement standpoint, first I'm going to have to go to a judge, I'm going to have to get a warrant, I'm going to have to explain why I want to look into his life, what I'm in, you know.
So that's that's just highlights the difference of what you're talking about.
One thing I always like to use as an example to explain to people, like, um, There's a famous FBI agent, Ali Sufan, who was involved in a 9 11 issue.
Yeah, I know Ali.
You do know him.
Okay.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
And, you know, then you already know what I'm going to say here.
He couldn't be involved in a lot of the interviews for some of these guys that were suspected to be involved in 9 11 because they were getting waterboarded and tortured.
So, this was happening.
You wouldn't be able to use that in a criminal case.
And him even being witness to it created problems.
Correct.
Yeah.
That just kind of goes to show, like, the difference where, you know, there's the gloves are off with the intel world versus law enforcement.
Well, yeah, and this was another sad stain on the intel world.
The fact that Ali was able to get information because he knew how to properly interrogate.
You know, he didn't have to threaten.
You know, the stupid, what I call the Vince Flynn approach, you know, where you use torture to get information.
And actually, I was friends with Vince and early on helped him with several of his books.
But he got enamored of that, you know, that 24.
Uh, TV show scenario where the ticking time bomb, yeah, yeah.
So, um, it's been a bit since we spoke, I think it's been a few weeks, uh, Larry, and I'm happy to have you back on.
But, um, I've seen you everywhere, by the way, right?
Congratulations, you've been literally on so many different shows going on, giving your commentary.
Um, and I guess what we could start is, um, I don't know, was it one of my friends was telling me, and I think I saw this in one of your interviews as well, that apparently.
Trump was trying to get the nuclear codes and stop them.
Can you kind of go through that and give us a whole update on the conflict?
So I don't have direct knowledge on that.
A friend of mine that I have a lot of trust in, who has always been a reliable reporter, shared with me this said, Hey, at this meeting last week ago, Saturday, there was an emergency meeting.
They were trying to figure out what they're going to do next with respect to Iran.
And Trump was talking about using nuclear weapons.
And.
It was the way the person wrote it up, talking about getting the codes.
And General Kane reportedly said, push back.
No, no, we're not using nuclear weapons.
That's crossing a line there.
I think that story, I felt it was true.
That's why I talked about it with Judge Napolitano.
It went viral.
I didn't quite expect that.
But they've even made one of those Lego videos.
You know, the Iranians are making the Lego.
They made one of them about me or about what I said.
Oh, wow.
It's hilarious.
Yeah, those things go viral, man.
But then you had Trump saying he was going to end the civilization of Iran.
Well, the only civilization-ending weapon we have is a nuke.
Then today at the briefing, he made a point of saying that the United States would never use a nuke.
So I think that is a result of me putting this information out there.
Yeah.
It's forced them into saying we're not going to use a nuke.
That's great news.
That helps de escalate this.
But, you know, Trump, I'm pretty sure that Trump said that or tried to do that and that Kane interjected.
I have been told by a completely different source, but that both John Ratcliffe, the CIA director, and General Kane have both become more alarmed at Trump's decision making.
And they are pushing back harder now.
Yeah.
You know, and the Wall Street Journal also reported how when the F 15 fighter jet pilot got, you know, was in the middle of potentially getting captured, that he was beside himself.
He was, they couldn't even be in the situation room.
His aides had to update him.
Yeah, they kept him out.
They felt he'd be a problem.
So, Larry, let me ask you this.
Speaking of the down fighter jet, can you kind of give my audience, because I had explained this to a degree to them as well, but I'd love to hear it from you.
Because you could probably go into a bit more detail based on what you can and can't say.
That operation, what do you think really went down on that day before they got shot down?
Well, I have talked to somebody, he's an old friend, who was actually involved.
He was sitting in one of the what they call the crisis action teams that was tracking this and coordinating with the combat search and rescue teams.
So this was a real.
Shoot down of that plane.
The CIA and DOD did some deliberate misinformation to keep people off the trail.
But that aircraft was operating in the area of Isfahan, a nuclear power facility, and just north of Isfahan is Natanz, another nuclear site.
What I still haven't gotten a clear answer to is that it was clear that.
This pilot was hiding in this one location.
Now, they've had several stories that, you know, he had a broken leg and a broken ankle, injured leg, that he'd hiked 10 miles, he'd hiked five miles, he'd maybe crawled one mile, who knows?
But they sent in two C 130J aircraft with two little birds on board.
Those two little birds are special operations helicopters.
Were they C 130s or MC?
I heard from other people that it was MC 130s.
It was a C 130J.
Okay.
It's a special J SOC bird.
It's a classified version of the AC 130?
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
It has a different.
The MC 130 has more of a gunship.
Oh.
You know, this was not the gunship.
You were talking about the little birds and the.
AC 130, the JSOC version.
Yeah, so each 130 could carry two little birds.
And then in addition to that, another 15 passengers or personnel.
So that means between those two birds, and then you got to raise the question how many pilots for the little birds were on each of those planes?
I'm guessing that, you know, if you had four.
Pilots per plane.
That gets you down then to 11 people that would have guns that could provide perimeter security or whatever.
They did affect the rescue.
And the reason it was so high priority is the guy that was sitting in the back seat was actually a full bird colonel and reportedly was the vice wing commander at Mawafik Salty Air Base in Jordan.
And that was crazy too that when I found out, like, okay, why is the WISO colonel?
Involved like what's going on here, yeah.
No, and that's a legitimate question, and it's not unheard of because, in fact, my friend that was telling me about this he described his time when he was at Al Udeed Air Force Base well, 10 years ago.
And the two star, the general who ran the place, he went up in one of the planes one time to fly a combat mission just because he wanted to, you know.
Tired of sitting here at the desk.
I want to get some, you know.
So this guy did it, and then bad luck, they got shot down.
Now, there were other reports that JSOC was trying to do a raid on either Isfahan or Natanz.
Well, we don't see evidence of all of the JSOC aircraft getting shot down, and certainly no casualty reports.
So I don't know if that operation was planned and then canceled as a result of the shoot down of this plane in that vicinity.
Was that plane actually providing some?
Pre bombing to prepare the area for a possible insertion?
We don't know.
All we do know is that they recovered the pilot, they got out, and the two C 130s and four little birds were left on the ground and destroyed.
So let me ask you this because I thought it was interesting that Ratcliffe was heavily involved in the press conference after the fact, and they were leading the efforts to recover him.
For me, looking in, and I'd love to get your opinion on this, was this a clandestine operation?
That got caught in the middle of said operation.
This Wizzo was attached to that, you know, I guess, operation, which explains maybe why he's high ranking and maybe, you know, they read him in and he was involved actively and why they, obviously, the CIA was involved in locating him because he was attached to this particular operation.
Would that be.
Yeah, I can't argue against that.
You know, there's, as I look at it, it's just, there's still some oddities that aren't explained.
Yeah.
And because I raised the question, why do you take two little birds unless, you know, if you're going to fly three of them up to provide perimeter security and then one to go in to do the rescue?
But that, you know, that seems like that's a lot of attention you're going to attract once you fire those up.
And this, you know, how the two planes got stuck is a question because they're supposed to be able to fly out of.
Uh, rough terrain like that, so yeah, that's it.
There's just lots of questions that very well that what you just laid out very well could be, yeah.
Like, I can't come out and say definitively, Oh, no, no, that's wrong.
No, I can't, yeah.
The when I saw that, you know, a weapon system officer colonel, I was like, What's going on here?
Like, you know, and then, like you said, you had a buddy that like a two star that was, you know, wanting to get involved and go on this stuff.
To me, I look at it like, Okay, either it's because they're right in there, you know, they're more experienced, they probably put in it was a cool operation, they want to be involved.
We all know how the government is, I want to do this, yeah.
You know, I want to be involved in this operation and they volunteer if it's like, you know, sexy enough for them.
So that made sense.
And then the other thing, too, that I heard was that they were trying to establish a FARP.
And that's when they kind of got caught with this whole situation and had to completely pivot and go rescue this Wizzo, this Colonel Wizzo.
And that's kind of why they, all this aircraft was there that, like you said, the little.
Yeah, that very well could have been, that's another reasonable explanation.
So, you know, that's a forward area refueling point for people that don't know what FARP means.
Iran's Gulf Protection Strategy00:14:33
So, what are your thoughts on?
Obviously, there's been a lot since we last spoke.
We had the shoot down, we have the blockade of the blockade.
What are your overall thoughts on where we are now?
The Islamabad talks, it seems like those aren't going to happen anytime soon.
Right.
But the ceasefire at least is in place.
I just saw a second ago that Hezbollah and Israel.
Are still bombing each other.
So that's, you know, this has got to be the most ridiculous ceasefire I've ever seen.
First, it was a ceasefire.
Then it's like, no, it's not going to be a ceasefire because Lebanon's not involved.
Then Israel stopped.
Then Israel started shelling southern Lebanon again.
Then Trump went ahead and put the blockade in.
It's like insane what's going on.
What are your thoughts on all of this?
Yeah, the shooting has stopped at least between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other.
And Trump is desperate to get out of this.
You know, he realized he's caught, man.
He thought he was going to be done in two or three days and, you know, there'd be victory over Iran.
And now, no, it's stuck.
I think we got a hint today of what his exit plan may be.
That if he can, if they can convince the Iranians.
Oh, can you update my people real quick?
Because he had a press conference at three, right?
Earlier today?
Yeah.
Can you tell them kind of what went down there and then why you.
What?
Yeah.
What he said at the press conference was.
Basically, if Iran doesn't have a nuke, then the American people can, you know, it's worth paying $4 a gallon for gas that you've now guaranteed that Iran no longer has a nuclear weapon or can acquire a nuclear weapon.
And I hear from that, and I'm going, oh, okay, that's what he's going to do.
They're going to try to negotiate a deal with Iran.
I don't know if Iran will take the.
Iran would be willing, in theory, to do this, which is.
They'll agree to limits on enrichment.
They'll agree to allow inspections of their nuclear facilities.
But in exchange for that, immediate relief on sanctions, immediate return of frozen funds, and they get to continue controlling the traffic that goes in and out of the country.
So Trump said he'd be willing to concede to all that.
Well, he didn't say that directly, but that's when I heard him talking about how he was explaining the nuke.
And then they said, and we're not going to use nukes.
So that was good.
He fessed up.
He's not going to use nukes.
Larry Johnson just saved the world.
Yeah.
Like, it's crazy.
It goes viral.
Like, oh, no, I wasn't.
Because, you know, I believe it, man.
I mean, he's been behaving extremely erratically.
And I think Trump realizes that this war is a colossal failure.
His approval ratings are low.
People that support him, even like, I voted for Trump.
You know, I'm not ashamed to admit that.
Like, I tell people all the time I voted for him, but I'm not happy about this because a big part of the reason why I voted for him was literally to avoid this very thing.
Exactly.
Oh, man.
And we're all in a long line.
You know, we're joining Tucker Carlson and his brother, Buckley.
Candace Owens, you know, she's in that line now.
Yeah, this is a lot of people feel just downright betrayed over this.
Especially since we get no strategic benefit.
Oh, none whatsoever.
Well, in fact, this has hurt us.
Now, I think one of Iran's original demands was that the U.S. withdraw its forces from the Persian Gulf Arab states.
They may not hold fast on that because they have essentially driven us out.
As a result of the five weeks of missile strikes.
So they don't have to make too big of a deal of that.
There's a deal there to be had for Trump.
I think, you know, we've seen all of the starting March 10th, we're told, the U.S. is going to the Pakistanis and said, hey, see if the Iranians would give us a call, please.
You know, we want to get out of this.
And Iran was like, no, no.
You know, you started this, we're going to finish it.
They've got that attitude.
So this is.
We'll see if the Sunday is the next big date because Israel is reporting that Trump told them three to five days.
Five days is Sunday.
And then either the war will restart in earnest or it'll drag on for a while.
And then Trump, in that five day period, he's at the 60 day mark where the War Powers Act kicks in.
So he'll have to have permission from Congress to continue this.
And maybe that's his plan to say, hey, I'm just following the law.
I was forced to.
And the Ford is back in route as well, right?
If I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, it's back there.
It's back there.
Yeah.
So they've got three.
They've got the George H.W. Bush, Abraham Lincoln, and Gerald Ford.
Yeah.
What are your thoughts on the Ford?
They said it was a dryer fire.
Yeah, right.
I believe that.
You know, there was a friend of mine, Andrei Martyanov, former.
Soviet naval officer, but became an American citizen.
He showed a video of the Forestal, an aircraft carrier during the Vietnam War, in which John McCain was the pilot and he was negligent, fired off a hot round of missiles, something that blew up, killed like 19 sailors, caught the ship on fire.
That fire burned for 19 hours.
And so Andre's point was.
Here, you got a real actual piece of munition that explodes.
It burns for 19 hours, and these guys can't put out this fire for 30 hours.
Yeah, good point.
Good point.
So, I don't think we're getting a real story on it.
Yeah, I think they got hit by a drone or something.
Yeah, very.
You know, they're very well.
Well, Trump admitted that at least the Abraham Lincoln had been hit.
He was attacked, he said, from 17 different angles.
Oh, yeah.
Then he said they shot everything down, right?
Supposedly, yeah.
But I don't believe that at all.
What do you think the casualties are?
I mean, the last report, I think they're saying like 12 or 13.
What are your thoughts on casualties?
No, I think the death toll is probably up around 50.
And the wounded is up around 800, 800 to 900.
So basically double what there's.
Yeah, because they're saying now, 13, I think they're saying KIA, and then they're saying around 400 injured.
So you think it's double that?
I know for Israel, it's taking a lot of casualties too.
Israel's lost almost 2,000 in Lebanon.
Yeah, yeah.
Well, that's what Hezbollah does.
Yeah.
You know, Israel said, Hey, come into my lair, man, we'll chew you up.
Yeah.
And that's what's happening.
I heard today, I just saw the headline, but 47 Israeli soldiers were killed or wounded.
Just today.
Yeah.
Yeah, the IDF is not good on the ground, man.
And then obviously, as an invading country, you have a significant disadvantage.
Yeah, it's.
Yeah, Israel's casualties have hit historic levels.
For the first time, the IDF lost 47 soldiers in five hours.
Wow.
That's off of a site.
That's a lot for them.
Yeah, that's off of a site called Borzeek Men.
So, usually his information, sometimes, you know, he bats about 500.
Gotcha.
Well, no, that's in line.
I mean, I've heard from one of my reputable sources, too.
They've lost roughly, Hezbollah's lost around 2,000 as well.
It's pretty much like it seems to be a 101.
Of them killing each other.
But so Trump's in a weird spot right now because I look at it like he's got two options.
Either A, kind of pull out the region, which you're tail between your legs and leave, right?
And then he's going to have to deal with people calling him a loser and everything else like that.
Or double down and stay and inevitably have to escalate, whether it's boots on the ground or God forbid he bombs a power plant or something.
And then you can basically kiss the Gulf goodbye because if they.
Bomb power plants in Iran.
I think the next step from the Iran perspective is to destroy power plants in the Gulf as well as desalination plants.
And then, you know, that would create a real humanitarian crisis because it's getting warm.
They're out there in the desert.
Like 90% of their potable water comes from desalination.
So that would be a nightmare.
So it's like he's kind of stuck in between Iraq and a hard place.
What do you think is going to happen prediction wise?
Well, first, let me ask you a question Did you ever spend any time in Saudi Arabia or Qatar?
UAE, yes.
Not Qatar or Saudi.
And what time of the year at UAE?
Oh, I've gone there twice.
I've gone there in the spring and in the summer, and it's unbearably hot both times.
Yeah, yeah.
So I was at Al Udeed heading into Iraq back in 2006.
And man, oh man, I've seen pizza ovens that are all turned up high that are cooler than that place.
Yeah.
I mean, it was brutal.
It's bad.
Absolutely brutal.
So.
And that's going to hit in the next three weeks.
The temperatures will start spiking.
Trump doesn't have many good options on this.
We've already weakened.
The U.S. came into this conflict sort of like the mafia protector.
We went to each of the Gulf states and said, hey, you need protection.
Give us the money.
So, they'd give us money and we promised them protection.
Well, then it started this battle, and what happened?
All of a sudden, our protection was no good.
It's just like the kid down the street comes up and torches your pizza part or sets it on fire.
The mafia guys sit outside and watch and go, oh, my, that's bad.
But what can you do about it?
So, they're in the situation right now that they're going to reevaluate their relationship with the United States.
China is sitting back.
They're enjoying this.
Yeah.
Because the longer, if this restarts, the United States is going to continue to fire weapon systems that are not easily replaced.
In fact, weapon systems that are in some are reaching critically low levels.
And they can't just be replenished easily by new production.
Yeah.
So I think China's got the big bag of popcorn just sitting back, and they're going to help Iran.
However, they can extend this thing and to a treat the United States.
I see that very as a very likely outcome.
Yeah.
I mean, I agree.
I think, you know, for the Chinese and the Russians, it's kind of, especially for the Russians, Russians have been able to, you know, kind of, you know, been out there.
They've been able to make a bunch of money.
They've been able to, you know, kind of take the eyeballs off of them and their conflict with Ukraine.
Right.
And, you know, they've benefited quite a bit.
So it's like, you know, and they're sharing intelligence with Iran as well.
So it's like, you know, they're all benefiting from this.
People say, oh, well, China needs a lot of the oil that goes through straight.
I don't know.
I'm pretty sure that Iran's probably more than likely taking care of them, making sure they still get what they need since they're such a strong ally.
Right?
Yeah.
China's also benefiting financially because the payments that Iran is collecting, they're collecting it in Yuan.
Yes.
And it's being deposited in a bank in Shanghai.
So this is one more push.
To have the BRICS countries independent and outside of the petrodollar system.
You know, something else that's interesting is because I saw a revised US list for the negotiations.
And I noticed that in this new revised list, pulling out of the Gulf was actually on the list, which I thought was crazy.
Because, like you said, I think this opens the door because we couldn't protect the Gulf states.
And right now they're reevaluating this relationship they have with us.
I don't think, and I said this at the beginning of the war, I don't think we have presence in the region anymore at this point.
Like, we've failed.
The whole reason we're even allowed to be there is to protect them, and we couldn't do that.
And that's actually what got them attacked.
So it's like, why would they bother with allowing us to keep bases there when it just makes them a target, makes them lose an enormous amount of money, makes them lose energy resources?
Tourism is down all across the region.
You know, me and you both know the Gulf states, these guys aren't, you know, these guys aren't martyrs, these guys aren't, you know, People that want to fight.
They want to just collect their money and chill and live in first world convenience and wealth and have tourism, and that's it.
And for them to be getting bombed like this is unfathomable for them.
Yeah, no, absolutely.
Listen, the biggest loser out of the Gulf is a contest between Bahrain and the United Arab Emirate.
And actually, I'd say the United Arab Emirate is probably more damaging because just so much more money was at stake.
You know, they had built this major financial center and this luxury real estate.
Empire, and then they had Jebel Ali, this major one of the world's largest free trade ports.
All that's dead.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And the UAE, I mean, like, for example, Dubai is like 90%, you know, immigrants or expatriates.
So it's like, you know, they heavily rely upon, and a lot of these Gulf states are trying to diversify, you know, getting more into the tourism and everything else like that.
But, you know, they're bringing down Zelensky for protection.
Limits of US Power00:02:37
Like, what?
What's going on here?
Yeah.
Yeah.
You know?
Yeah.
So I think the government, you know, and the Trump administration realized, okay, we're going to have to concede on pulling out of the Gulf because they're not even, you know, they're making it look like, okay, here's, here's, Here's something we're going to give you, Iran.
But I think honestly, it was like, you guys are getting out no matter what happens.
We're not letting you rebuild the bases.
You know, we're kicking you guys out officially.
And we're going to get protection otherwise.
So I think that's why the United States was willing to concede on that and say, you know what, we'll pull out the Gulf.
But that makes us look horrible too, man.
This war has been such a catastrophe.
Yeah, it was.
Whenever you do a negligent discharge into your own leg, don't be surprised if you're limping for a long time.
And that's the best outcome, you know.
So, did you hear?
Also, I heard that the parliament just passed, I think it got approved today, that they're going to start accepting vessels going through in Iranian rials and they're going to be charging them via that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, so that just strengthened their own economy.
So, this is, you know, this has, if the United States' attempt was to isolate and weaken Iran, it failed.
Completely, utter failure.
What are your thoughts on the blockade?
Because the blockade has been Trump's, you know, Retaliation to try to, you know, hurt Iran financially and try to get them to comply here.
What are your thoughts on it?
How long can it last?
Is it effective?
It is not effective.
And the reason it is not effective is we don't have enough ships.
The Indian Ocean is a big place.
The U.S. ships, you know, if they were able to park right outside the Strait of Hormuz, they might have a shot at interdicting a lot, but they can't park there because they're within missile.
Drone range of Iran.
So they dare not try to operate there.
They'll get blown out of the water.
So as a result, they're hundreds of miles away, which means more ocean to cover.
I think it was yesterday that 30 to 34 Iranian ships with oil made its way out of the Strait of Hormuz, and now the U.S. Navy reportedly captured one.
Yes, I heard about that the other day when they shot onto that vessel.
Yeah, so one out of 30, 34.
So 34 made it through.
Were they Chinese flagged, or I know some of them were Malaysian flagged?
No, they were Iranian flagged.
All the ships that went through.
Israeli Training and War Staging00:04:26
Yeah, yeah.
So it's just a reminder of the limits of U.S. power.
You know, if you're able to get into a confined area, then yeah, we'd have enough ships maybe to operate there.
But this is.
So they just don't even have the manpower to do it.
Like, even though they want to do it, they simply can't catch every vessel that goes through.
Right.
Yeah.
Man.
Because I know that the Marines boarded that the other day.
What ended up happening with that?
I know the Marines got on it, they captured the crew members.
What happened with that?
I have not heard.
That's a good question.
I've been trying to find the answer myself.
If they let the crew stay on board and sail it to a certain destination, or if they hooked it up and towed it somewhere, I don't know.
Man.
Have the Israelis, because obviously you've been in the government for a while, have the Israelis always been this difficult to work with getting us involved in some BS?
Yeah.
What we were dealing with is like with the Mossad.
Yeah, they are the biggest group of arrogant pricks I've ever worked with.
Okay?
It is the.
You know, I teach firearms, and they talk about the three most important knowledge, skill, and attitude.
And so, when you're teaching, the most important thing in that kind of environment is teaching attitude.
People got to have the right attitude that, hey, I'm open to learning something new.
I'm open to admitting I may not know everything.
I'm open.
I'm cooperative.
Not the Israelis, which is one of the reasons that you see they don't carry, when they carry concealed, They don't carry around chambered.
In other words, they don't.
All the forces do, right?
They may, but the reason they don't do that, what they have them do is they'll draw and then they'll go up and grab the slide, reciprocate the slide, which then, as it goes forward, chambers, takes a full piece of ammunition and puts it into the chamber, locks it into the breech of the barrel.
The reason they do that, and I'd have to look for the video, but there's an Israeli instructor explaining the reason they do that is they don't feel that the people that they've trained are properly trained to not keep their finger off the trigger.
And my attitude is look, if I can't train you to keep your damn finger off the trigger until you've got that gun pointed at what you intend to shoot, then that's the problem's on me.
I'm a bad instructor.
Yeah.
But that's what the Israelis do, and they take great pride in it.
But I've gone out and tested it on a range.
It increases your time a half to a second and a half.
And in a gunfight, that could be deadly for you.
But when you try to tell them this, oh, no, no, we know better.
We're so smart.
And they are the most undisciplined group of personnel, they're a reserve army.
We've seen multiple instances of their misconduct.
Early in the war, when those three Israeli guys, they're IDF members, they got captured on October 7th.
They managed to get free, and they were verbally contacting their unit, and they had their shirts off, and one was waving a white flag.
They got gunned down by their own guys.
Oh, their own guys shot them.
Hannibal Directive.
Yeah.
Oh, man.
Yeah, no, it's nuts, man.
Speaking of which, what are your thoughts on the conflict going on in Lebanon with the Israelis?
That one is not getting as much media attention.
Yeah, well, they're trying to work the deal.
The United States is helping Israel to pressure the Lebanese government to turn its military power on southern Lebanon and attack Hezbollah from behind.
So Israel wants to get them in the front and Hezbollah from behind and to the left flank.
Lebanon Conflict and Deadlines00:02:47
So, and I know you got to get going soon, so I won't hold you for too much longer.
So, what do you think is going to happen from here?
Do you think the war is going to restart?
Do you think the war is done?
Do you think the ceasefire is going to hold longer?
What do you think?
Because I'm hearing about people saying, hey, I got orders.
I got to go to the Middle East in the summertime, in the fall.
He's obviously moving an enormous amount of assets into the region.
Is he doing this just, I guess, to more brinksmanship?
Or is it staging for the second leg of the conflict?
If he doesn't start the attack by Sunday, then I actually think he's going to be going strictly for a negotiated deal.
Okay.
Sunday is when the deadline's up.
So if he extends the deadline again, that tells me he wants a solution.
What do you think the parameters are going to be?
And do you think it's going to be struck in Islamabad?
Are they going to send out Kushner and JD Vance and everybody to meet again?
Or what do you think is going to happen there?
I'll call it a modified JCPOA.
The.
Iranians will agree to give up the 60% enriched uranium they have into the care of either China or Russia.
They will allow IAEA inspections.
They will also submit to a contract, a treaty, whatever, that they will never build a nuclear weapon.
So they'll come out and declare that all publicly.
The United States then has to give up.
Both unfreeze the assets, lift all the sanctions, no more sanctions, and leave Iran the hell alone.
With a congressional, via Congress, so it sticks.
Yeah.
So that's a way out, I think.
And Strait of Hormuz probably, you know, allow them to collect.
Yeah, this Strait of Hormuz, I've seen some videos about the Malaccan Straits.
Mm hmm.
The problem with the Malaccan Straits is you don't have entrenched army positions, missile positions buried in the mountains, on the shores on either side.
You know, Iran does.
And Iran's control like that means they don't have to have people sitting right down there on the Strait of Hormuz.
Hell, they can be back in a bunker 150 miles away and just monitor the traffic and say, hey, you know, give them an order, get the hell out.
Listener Questions and Appreciation00:01:09
Don't cross this line or else.
Yeah.
No, I mean, it's going to be very interesting, man.
But no, Larry, where can the people find you, man?
And I appreciate you coming on short notice, by the way, and talking with us.
It's always fun.
Look for me at sonar21.com.
S O N A R 21.com.
Guys, go check them out.
Because you send out emails too, right?
Because I think I'm subscribed to you on there.
Yeah, it's well, I write an article tonight, my subscription.
Software is screwed up right now.
So we're working to fix that.
Okay.
If you need help with that, man, I can help you as well.
Okay, cool.
Hit me on the side for that and I can absolutely help you with that.
Much appreciated.
Oh, absolutely, man.
Absolutely.
I know technology gets the better of us sometimes.
Yeah.
But no, Larry, thank you so much for coming on, man.
Let me see if anyone here has any questions.
No, I think we're good.
But I'll definitely, for the next one, we can definitely have, because I'm sure a lot of people want to have questions for you and stuff like that.