Mike Adams warns that U.S.-Iran conflict threatens global food security by disrupting 25% of natural gas feedstock for fertilizer via the Strait of Hormuz, potentially causing millions to starve in Sudan, Yemen, and Ethiopia by 2027. He argues artificial oil price suppression exacerbates this crisis while China and Russia halt exports, predicting infrastructure damage could trigger long-term depression. Adams urges immediate political action to end the war, advocates individual preparedness like storing diesel and growing food, and promotes his Groovy B brand supplements and storable foods as essential defenses against impending economic collapse and nuclear risks. [Automatically generated summary]
Transcriber: CohereLabs/cohere-transcribe-03-2026, WAV2VEC2_ASR_BASE_960H, sat-12l-sm, script v26.04.01, and large-v3-turbo
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Artificial Food and Nationalized Supplies00:14:23
Talk about here on this channel and have just earlier today.
We always talk about the diplomatic, the political, and the military aspects of this war going on in the Middle East between the United States and Iran and about where it may go.
We look at all the details, the pros and cons, aircraft capabilities, missiles, and all that stuff.
And that's all really important.
But we also have been talking a little bit about the oil issue and how it's being blocked off the world market has caused all kinds of ripple effects on many things.
We talk about the fertilizer coming out, aluminum, helium, all kinds of things, diesel fuel going up.
And we talk about the impact that could have on people's lives.
But there's one aspect of this we haven't talked about, which I have been seeing in some published works lately by Mike Adams.
And I am absolutely thrilled to have him on the show today to talk about what I think is one of the most underreported but really grave potential problems that could come out of this war of choice that we made.
And that is with food.
And Mike, if you don't know him, many of you do.
I know because some of you've asked him to be on my show before.
Is also known as the Health Ranger, is a founder of All Brighton Platforms, Mass Spec Food Lab Director, and number one bestselling author of Food Forensics.
I love that title, by the way.
Mike, welcome to the show.
Glad to have you here.
Well, thank you for the invitation.
I'm a huge follower of your channel.
I really appreciate your level headed analysis of what's happening in the world.
Well, thank you very much.
And that's why we have you here to provide some expertise that I don't have on this.
And that's one of the things we're looking to get into today.
And let's just jump into the first one here.
Because you wrote here, if I can, sorry, I didn't pull it up in the right spot here.
You wrote this article that came out pretty recently called The Coming Famine: Why Millions Will Starve in 2027 and Who's to Blame?
And then we obviously that picture kind of got my attention there as well.
But first of all, just even before we get into the details of what you're going to be talking about here, how serious is it?
Because Americans think, okay, that can happen in Africa.
I mean, those poor people down there, it's just awful.
But it certainly doesn't happen in America.
That's never going to happen in the Western world because, I don't know, we're too modern or something.
That's just something that doesn't happen here.
Is that a safe bet?
Not any longer.
We're already in a very dire situation.
And that outcome that I mentioned in that headline is already baked in based on the lack of energy and fertilizer coming out of the Strait of Hormuz.
What week are we in now?
Like week nine or something like that of this conflict?
The thing is, It doesn't look like there's a solution in sight.
You know, you've covered this extensively with you and your guests.
If this goes on much longer, that is, a few more months, then it becomes rather catastrophic on a global scale.
But I want to be clear the countries that will be most impacted by this are not the United States.
They are countries that already have tens of millions of people who are marginally on the edge of famine and starvation, even in a good year.
And those include countries like Sudan and even Yemen.
Egypt is not quite as severe, but it's close to that category.
India will have a lot of difficulty here for a number of reasons.
Bangladesh also will be on the edge of this.
And think about this countries like Bangladesh, they have their own nitrogen production plants there.
But in order to produce nitrogen, they have to rely on imported natural gas.
And as you have covered extensively, Daniel, Qatar Energy, two of the 14 natural gas trains, they call them, which are really just production pipelines.
Two of the 14 are out of commission for three to five years.
And that has taken 17% of Qatar Energy's gas offline.
And it's the Haber Bosch chemical process that turns gas into ammonia, which becomes urea and other nitrogenous fertilizers.
So, to answer your question, sorry to take so long, but the world is already right now going to face starvation of millions in 2027.
And that number could grow to tens of millions or even hundreds of millions if the Strait of Hormuz is not open soon.
And can I ask you just kind of from a global perspective, if you could just kind of explain?
How the global food system works, such that all these different countries are so dependent on something that comes out of here, as opposed to whatever they'll be able to make it in their own country here.
Is this one of those supply chain issues like we have with some electronics or something like that that's also similar in the food production world?
Yes, yes.
So let's say our current population globally is 8 billion people.
We'll just use that as an easy number.
About 4 billion or more of those people only are living today because of.
The Haber Bosch process that I just mentioned, which turns hydrocarbons into initially ammonia and then nitrogenous fertilizers.
So, if we lose that supply chain, which we haven't lost entirely, and I want to be clear that not all the world's natural gas comes out of the Strait of Hormuz, but it's a large number.
It's 25%, maybe even more, that comes out of the Strait.
So, that means that we're losing one quarter of the world's natural gas feedstock input for fertilizer production.
That's huge.
And when you also consider that the destruction of the Nord Stream pipelines, remember under Biden, you covered that, affecting a company called Basif out of Germany, BASF, which also produced nitrogenous fertilizers from Russian gas.
That was cut off years ago.
On top of that, both China and Russia have now halted all exports of fertilizers, including to countries that desperately need that fertilizer input, such as India.
So when India asked China for emergency fertilizer, China said, Sorry, we need it for our own populations and our own farming.
So, the bottom line, Daniel, is that not only is the natural gas feedstock being cut off that normally would feed 4 billion out of the 8 billion on planet Earth, but also then countries are becoming more nationalized with the supplies that they have for their own protection.
That's leaving the more vulnerable countries like Bangladesh and Thailand and India really hanging in the wind.
And let's go ahead and jump into the article here because the very opening line here kind of has my attention.
Not only is the first category A madman catastrophe.
But then you said, What I'm about to tell you is not a prediction, it's a warning based on hard evidence.
Can you distinguish the difference between those two things?
Yes.
And really, that's a great segue from what we were just talking about is that our food today is largely artificial.
That is, I call it shadow food, actually.
You know, I've been a pretty vocal critic of a lot of the agricultural practices of our modern world.
And the truth is that our soils are largely depleted.
They have been for many generations.
And without the addition of these fertilizers, N, P, and K, going into the soils, crops just simply do not produce hardly at all.
And it's a nonlinear response.
What I mean by that is if you reduce fertilizer by 10% on a typical crop, let's say a high fertilizer hungry crop like corn, you get far more than a 10% reduction in the crop yield.
So a 10% drop can result in a 30% reduction.
On certain types of crops.
This is why American farmers are switching right now from corn to things like soy, which is a legume that doesn't need nearly as much fertilizer.
So, Daniel, we're all about to get extra soy lattes and soybeans and soy tofu instead of corn because of this fertilizer shortage.
This is going to be a shift that will affect even people's dietary habits as well.
But anyway, the bottom line is our food depends on a supply chain that comes out of the Persian Gulf.
And few people actually realize that until just recently.
So, continuing on down there about how it's a man made catastrophe, is the catastrophe that you're talking about, the man made part, just because of the war we started and all the consequences?
Or did we build a system that was too fragile?
Well, yeah, both, I would say.
Yeah.
Remember that population growth is strongly tied to low costs of food production and, of course, food abundance.
So, for a long time, the United States of America and other countries really wanted to encourage their populations to.
Eat as much as possible, have more children, grow the population.
This was where the original food guide pyramid came from, the USDA, decades ago.
It was all about really, hey, everybody, eat more food, which actually served America's purpose in the post World War II era because back then a lot of Americans were malnourished and there were a lot more stillbirths and things like that resulting from malnutrition.
Of course, we have the opposite problem today where we have Americans overeating but undernourished, meaning they're getting too many calories but not enough actual nutrition.
That's because the food has been transformed into what I mentioned earlier.
I call it shadow food, where, yeah, it looks like a head of lettuce, but it doesn't have the same nutrition as wild lettuce or what U.S. soils used to produce with the trace minerals like selenium and zinc and copper and things like that that would be in the food supply.
It's also mentioned food is the result of turning hydrocarbons into something you can eat.
Think about that.
So you can take gas, make fertilizer, fertilizer makes food, you can take oil.
Oil powers the tractors, it powers the transport trucks that bring food to the grocery store.
Cheap energy results in cheap food, scarce energy results in scarce food.
And then it's just a question of which areas will be hit by the scarcity first and how severe will it be.
And it won't be as severe in the United States as it will be elsewhere around the world.
There's no question about that.
But the ability of U.S. consumers to handle economic pain is pretty shallow because so many American families are just living on the edge right now.
Paycheck to paycheck, they don't have as much of a buffer of savings as cultures like, let's say, Japan.
You know, a savings intensive type of culture, they can make it through famines more easily or food scarcity more easily than can typical American consumers.
Yeah, I can certainly agree with that.
Let's move on down to the next category here the mechanism, how fertilizer becomes famine.
That was an interesting headline there.
What does this tell us?
Well, that just speaks to the lack of fertilizer that is.
Our 8 billion people only can be supported today because of the supply chain of cheap available gas.
Remember that the gas trains in Qatar really began to be constructed in the 1990s.
And it wasn't that long ago that Earth's population was only 4 billion people.
I think that was in the 1970s that it was only half the current population.
But it was the construction of these gas trains in places like Qatar, but there's also gas that comes out of North America and other places in the world.
But Qatar Energy really built it up more rapidly than anybody else.
And the condensers that are required to liquefy the gas there now have a multi year wait time for construction.
And you can't simply build that out very quickly.
Yes, on planet Earth, we built that.
That created a supply chain of cheap, abundant fertilizer.
Farmers were paying $400 a ton for fertilizer not that long ago.
Now, $900 a ton in many places, even in the United States.
So, What that means is, yeah, we've created a problem.
We've created a supply chain vulnerability that cannot be easily solved.
And we are not isolated from this in America, Daniel.
Even though we can produce a lot of our own oil and we can produce a lot of our own fertilizer, then there are other nations that are desperately bidding up those prices and buying from us and taking it away from the U.S. supply.
Think about even oil.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being drained while the U.S. is exporting oil to other countries at an artificially low subsidized price, essentially.
That's not going to serve our interests in the long run.
And do you have any sense for, I mean, I'm sure that there are other people in our government who know all of these details and probably have more data than either of us could put together combined.
Is there any plausible reason why we would be ignoring these kinds of things and not taking more proactive actions now, understanding what this is going to likely cause?
Well, I think it's because the urgency of the current crisis takes precedent over the urgency of a future crisis that hasn't yet arrived.
I think that's really all there is to it.
Our White House increasingly is in reaction mode, reacting to the current crisis.
And yeah, you can do some with releasing oil reserves, the IEA ordering 400 million barrels to be released over the next 120 days or so.
Yeah, sure, that will help, but that's a very limited answer and it can't be sustained.
And we have to think about the long term implications of this.
And I want to be clear, Daniel, that I don't foresee.
Millions of Americans falling over dead from starvation.
What I see is tens of millions of Americans lining up at food banks and not being able to afford the groceries that they used to be able to purchase.
And I see that the food purchasing portion of their discretionary income will become so large that it will edge out some of the other important expenses, such as health insurance or paying rent or paying a mortgage or buying fuel, especially if gas prices continue to rise into the six or seven dollar a gallon range.
Fallow Farms and 2027 Scarcity00:09:50
Then you have a double whammy.
Of high fuel prices and high food prices.
It's going to put a lot of American families into bankruptcy and potentially homelessness.
Yeah, we actually had Chris Martinson on last week who was arguing that we've all but baked in a recession.
And if we don't get the straight open up pretty quick, that could move into depression.
And on top of what you're talking about there, that is a pretty potent political matter, not even just the life and death issues with Americans.
So, I mean, I think it could be quite severe, even if.
On paper, it shouldn't cause starvation.
It could cause hardship.
But because of the dynamics here, like I said at the show, at the stop, start here, that doesn't happen in America.
We don't have those kinds of things.
We have price pain here and there.
But when you're talking something as serious as what you are implying could be coming here, that's, I think, something that most of us still alive today have never had that kind of, especially dual pressure.
Well, yes.
And this is on top of the economic pressures that we're already experiencing in the post COVID era because of all of the dollar creation that happened.
Massive amounts, trillions of dollars created, a lot of it stimulus money and so on, which flooded the dollar supply and resulted in the devaluation of the dollar, which we're feeling today in higher grocery prices even before the end of February war with Iran.
So, really, it's a triple threat if you think about it.
It's monetary inflation combined with Increasing global food scarcity driving up food prices combined with higher fuel prices, which also then has a double whammy because transportation of food is one of the major costs of food.
In addition to people buying their own gasoline, they have to pay for the transport of food.
And this is why airlines are, we saw one just go bankrupt in the last couple of days.
We've seen airlines cutting tens of thousands of flights from their plans over the next few months.
And countries like Australia, in particular, that are very, very large.
Country with a lot of road miles, a lot of transportation of basic supplies and food in Australia, they're going to see percentage wise even higher price increases than what we would see in the United States.
You know, Canada will be impacted, New Zealand.
Yeah, and in fact, let me just go to the next section there.
The countries that will be hardest hit.
So maybe that's where you're already headed right here.
Yeah, well, if you scroll down a little bit on that article, there's an infographic that shows, I believe it shows Sudan and DR Congo and so on, sort of at the bottom of, yeah, there it is.
Scroll down a little bit more on that infographic and you'll see.
Yeah, see that list Ethiopia, there you go, Bangladesh, Somalia, Yemen.
Those five countries are the most at risk.
And it's interesting, well, it's kind of sad that for every million barrels of oil that is not on the global market each day, or you could say every billion cubic meters of natural gas that's not flowing, there is an incremental amount of people that will starve as a result.
But that starvation won't really be fully felt until 2027.
And that's because of the growing seasons.
If you look at that country list right there, many of those countries, and there are more.
I mentioned before, I mentioned Egypt and India and so on.
Some of those have growing seasons that start in the summer with the harvest in the fall.
And thus, the scarcity won't really kick in until early 2027.
And even in the United States, a lot of the spring planting that happened, the majority of farmers had their fertilizer.
For the spring planting that's underway or already took place.
But it's the fall planting season in the United States where there will be much higher prices of fertilizer.
That will affect the winter harvest, so to speak, which affects the U.S. food supply in 2027.
And so, I guess this is kind of a graphic depicting what you were talking about there.
What's the difference between 100% yield and a 25% yield?
How could it drop that far?
Well, again, because the soils have been utterly depleted of nutrition over generations of farming.
And without the artificial inputs of nitrogen, NPK, the typical three, then crops just don't yield very much anymore.
And so, like I said, it's a nonlinear response where you lose a certain amount of fertilizer, you lose a much larger amount of crop.
And some farmers will choose to simply not plant at all because there's a fixed cost to run a tractor over an acre of soybeans, let's say.
That cost doesn't get lower just because you save money on less fertilizer.
So some farms will just lie in fallow because of this.
And those.
Even though America is very food abundant normally itself, you're going to have so many external pressures from other countries trying to buy that food at any price that the prices will go high for U.S. consumers, and that will be felt in the grocery store.
Well, like we're doing right now with the petroleum that you were talking about, because we're drawing down from the SPR and several other things right now to keep the price low.
But again, I mean, I guess I just got to ask it's surely there.
I mean, I get it.
The crisis in front of you today is important, but there's got to be people that say, Okay, but we're building the crisis tomorrow, which could dwarf this one because the one in the Middle East right now is one we chose to get into and we could choose to get out of.
And then we could limit the damage that's built up that's already baked in, as you point out.
But we don't have to get any more.
That can be a choice we can make.
Once we get into some of these territories here, grab me if I'm wrong, but your flexibility of taking decisions later on, like at the end of the summer, into the fall, your options go down, do they not?
Well, absolutely.
And you make a really important point there.
And it's also exacerbated by the infrastructure damage that's happened in the Middle East.
So I already mentioned Qatar Energy, a three to five year repair time on two of their gas trains.
So that's not coming back in 2027.
But also think about the damage to the oil wells as those wells are halted.
The flows are halted in some cases.
And Dr. Chris Martinson has spoken about this with a lot of expertise.
And I know him, I follow his work as well.
But those oil wells, they don't just come back at 100%.
In many cases, depending on the duration of the closure, especially the low pressure flowing wells in places like Iran and some of them, the more mature wells in Saudi Arabia, they may only come back at 80% of throughput, or in some cases, 70%.
Or if you're lucky, maybe it's 95%, but you don't know until you try.
So even if this war were to end tomorrow, if Trump said, we're done, we're out of there, we're just going to sail our ships out and Iran can.
You know, charge its tolls and let everybody start sailing through the strait.
Even if that happened tomorrow, it's going to be years before we get the throughput of gas and oil and helium and other, you know, sulfur, for example, that we had earlier this year.
It's going to be years.
And there's nothing you can do to change that.
None of us can change that.
That's baked in.
So let's go back to the last section of your piece here conclusion hope, preparedness, and the truth.
What can people do?
Well, number one, I always, I'm a big champion of self reliance and living off grid as much as you can, you know, to augment the things that you buy with perhaps things that you can grow.
There's a lot of people buying garden seeds right now and planting some crops.
People are learning about sprouting, which can augment your diet even in your own kitchen if you don't have a yard.
Some people are buying extra storable food just to prepare for this.
I've also encouraged people for years to store 500 gallons of diesel in a proper diesel tank.
And I do the same.
I'm using diesel on my ranch right now.
I paid $2.50 for it.
And it's going to last a long time.
But I've encouraged people to do this.
I understand you can't just put a 500 gallon tank in the middle of a neighborhood.
But if you're in an area where you can do this, it's a smart move because the reliability of the supply, I mean, we saw this coming.
A lot of us saw this.
The volatility of the supply chain and the strong dependence on these supplies is a critical vulnerability for our infrastructure.
And you know what else, Daniel?
Think about the fact that, you know, we're trying to see so many companies build data centers in the United States, which require enormous amounts of power from the power grid at the same time that the power grid is strained by this lack of energy resulting from this war.
So, you know, data centers are being built in places like Texas, which has its own power grid, but the power grid almost went down a few years ago because of a freak winter storm.
The Eastern power grid is already completely maxed out.
Data centers that are being built today, they have to purchase gas turbines and put the gas turbines on site and have the gas piped in to create their own electricity because they can't depend on the grid power.
Well, if the gas isn't available or is a lot more expensive, that's going to affect, obviously, their ability to produce electricity.
And one more thing, which is that the gas turbines themselves now have up to a 10 year wait time for the larger models because these tech companies went in and bought up all the gas turbines.
Even the smaller models like the 300 megawatt models and so on, they bought them all up.
Now they're gone.
Okay.
Well, that's less in hope filled, but it's the truth.
And that's what we need to have.
Energy Infrastructure Hits GDP00:13:09
And let me just say we've talked about a lot of the oil kind of in an ancillary way, but you've got another piece out right now.
I also want to talk about before we let you go.
And that is the oil emergency of 2627 why the oil glut narrative was a lie and what comes next.
First of all, what was the oil glut narrative?
Well, the IEA, which is out of Paris and it was formed after the 73 74 oil emergency, the IEA reports usually reports that there's this great access of even up to a billion barrels of oil on the water that they say is on these ships sailing around that haven't yet made it to their destination.
Sometimes that number is 800 million barrels, etc.
But in my opinion, after looking at this, it appears to me that the IEA has become somewhat politicized and is.
Has been vastly over reporting this buffer of oil in order to artificially lower oil prices or to cause oil speculators to think there's a lot more oil out there.
And as a result, there isn't really an extra billion barrels of oil floating around, especially now with the Strait of Hormuz situation.
So what was reported late last year as an oil glut has very quickly become oil scarcity.
And I'm sure you've covered this with Dr. Martinson and others, but Even the United States imports millions of barrels per day of the kind of oil that it needs for U.S. refineries, which are built for the more heavier sludge type of oil.
So the U.S. both imports and exports oil.
It exports the lighter oil to other countries and it imports the more sludgy oil for processing domestically.
But on a global basis, all of that oil is taking a hit to the tune of about 20% or so, based on how much the Persian Gulf supplied the world's oil.
Now, This is where you get into just straight up economics here.
You know, the GDP of every country is closely tied to its energy consumption.
If you want a higher GDP, you have to have more energy available for your economy to consume through industry and transportation, manufacturing, et cetera.
If you start to take a 20% hit in your energy, then your economy begins to take roughly about a 10% hit if the duration continues for that.
Now, there are older, more neoclassical economic theories that claim that number is only 1%.
Those don't make sense in the modern economy.
Enemy is the key commodity that drives everything else in your economy.
If you don't have energy, you can't do anything in your economy.
So, in modern economic theory, and among analysts who know what they're talking about, a 20% hit in the world's oil results in about a 10% hit in the world's GDP.
That's a depression.
And that's what's coming if we don't stop this.
Yeah, that is a huge year.
And you say the oil emergency is real, but it's worse than you think.
What is worse than we think?
That's because of the long term damage to the infrastructure.
Because a lot of people assume that you can just turn the oil wells back on.
You know, they think, oh, well, maybe, maybe Trump and Iran will come to an agreement, you know, Friday.
Unlikely, but they, you know, they hold out optimism for that.
And then we can just turn everything back on next week and everything will get back to normal.
Well, first of all, there is a multi month air gap in the system right now because there are far fewer ships sailing with oil or gas because the tankers just flat out, you know, aren't sailing like they used to.
Secondly, that long term damage to the infrastructure.
It's not just the oil wells themselves that can become clogged with things like paraffins or water mixture inside the fissures, where you normally have like a low pressure oil well.
You're injecting gas around the edge of it to try to push that oil slowly into the well where you can extract it.
Those fissures get clogged up if they just sit for a few days or a few weeks.
But it's also the fact that oil infrastructure has been bombed.
And that bombing has happened even in Russia.
You've seen this where Ukrainian drones have hit oil storage and oil refineries in Russia.
So, there is, you know, whether this is intentional or not, globally, the oil infrastructure that has kept our world humming, that has kept our GDP going, that infrastructure is being destroyed or eroded or blocked.
And the result to the world is clearly going to be I mean, I think I can confidently say at this point, it's going to be an economic depression, more than just a 5% or 6% reduction.
It's going to be more like 10%.
To make sure I understand it, even if the war ends tomorrow morning.
You're saying that's the case.
Well, if the war ends tomorrow morning, then we can heal from this.
We can get through this.
Life is going to be tough for a lot of countries and a lot of people for the remainder of this year and part of next year, no matter what.
But we can avoid the worst case if the war ends now.
And we can look back on this as a bump in the road.
But not if it continues.
Then it's going to get very, very bad, and a lot of human suffering will result.
Now, one other thing in that article, the new one here that really jumps out at me.
As you said, oil prices are being artificially suppressed, and that's making everything worse.
Now, most people might think about that.
In fact, if you look at the current price of oil right now, that in fact, President Trump made some comments that made the oil price drop.
As a matter of fact, this is a live look right here.
This is for June 102, and you see it dropped $3.85, now $3.87 today because of some things that President Trump said, and this implication that, well, maybe we're not going to get back into a hot war.
But you're saying that that may not be indicative of what the real price of oil is or what it may do to us, and that that's not good.
Can you explain how that works?
Absolutely.
Well, Trump is very practiced at helping the oil prices go lower by things that he says or posts on social media.
But given that we're facing scarcity in oil, the most important signal for consumers to start conserving is a higher price.
So this is just straight up classical economics.
A higher price signals to companies and transportation and consumers to use less of that commodity.
But since the price is artificially low, and part of that is accomplished by releasing from the SPR as well, the price is artificially low, so people think, oh, I can just continue to use it the way I used to.
And the problem is that the SPR will run out.
And also, again, the oil that we have been living on and burning over the last two and a half months, that excess is running out.
And it's looking like by the time we get into June, I think, mid to late June, this is going to become a really critical problem.
Even for Americans.
And it's not just the oil, it's also things like lubricants because of these petroleum products, various distillates and so on that come out of the Persian Gulf.
Even polyethylene, for example, goes into all kinds of fibers and construction materials.
Even helium.
I run a food lab and we use helium in our lab.
Fortunately, I stocked up on a massive amount of helium about March 10th, and I got a year's supply of helium in my lab, but not everybody saw that coming.
If you don't have lubricants, then you can't roll trucks down the highway.
If you don't have lubricants or just engine oil or even grease and things like that for construction equipment, tractors and skid steers and track loaders, you can't build.
You can't build data centers.
You can't build homes.
You can't transport anything.
So, this is a very complex, intertwined ecosystem of petrochemical products that is beginning to partially vanish from our world.
And I'm going to go back to the article here.
You've already talked about this, I guess, the previous section here the wells that may never come back.
You've talked about that.
But now, then, the critical thing what you must do now to prepare for the coming storm.
So, when you're talking about global energy and stuff, what can a regular person do?
Well, yeah.
And I apologize.
There is one more point I wanted to make on all of this about the fact that did you know that typical oil wells will drop about 4% or 5% per year in their output?
Just normally, especially if they don't have good maintenance.
And the maintenance of oil wells and especially of fracking wells, the maintenance requires a lot of liquidity in capital.
This is something that was mentioned recently by Rick Rule, a commodities expert.
And this lack of liquidity, which is also reflected in the fact that treasuries are moving up, so the cost of borrowing money is going higher.
I think the UK 30 year rate just went over 6%, in fact.
The cost of borrowing money impacts the lack of liquidity available for the energy industry to invest in the maintenance of the existing wells, not to mention exploration of new wells.
And fracking wells, they diminish very quickly, much more quickly than the liquid oil wells.
So if we stop doing the level of maintenance that's required, that's another piece of long term damage that stems from the higher cost of capital, which stems from interest rates going higher effectively or borrowing rates going higher.
This is one of the reasons why Trump really wants somebody at the Fed that will just slam interest rates down, even if it just kicks the can down the road to a bigger problem later on.
Because this lack of liquidity also affects energy, which affects food and everything else.
So I hope you don't mind me interjecting that.
Oh, no, no, of course.
No, no, absolutely.
Definitely anything that's relevant, I want you to talk about.
Yeah.
So I think the next question you were asking them was about what can people do?
Yeah.
Well, okay, here's an angle on this that's kind of interesting.
Trump has become the number one EV salesman in America because.
People are rushing out to buy EVs.
In fact, Hyundai, which sells EVs in America, has experienced, I think, a 500% increase in the sales volume of their EVs.
And Tesla sales are strong again as well.
That's because the perception among consumers is that they can just use the power grid to charge their vehicles.
They can do transportation based on kilowatt hours instead of having to go get diesel or gasoline.
Some people are buying solar and setting up a local battery storage, which is very expensive and very complex.
But some people are doing it so they can charge their vehicles with their own sunlight.
That bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.
You want to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, just get sunlight and feed it into your car, right?
Again, It's very expensive to set that up, so that's not something that typical Americans tap into.
But there's also, I just saw a pilot project from the bottom.
I'm sorry, just to go on, yes, how expensive for a normal person, how expensive would it be to set up a deal like that with a sunlight?
Given today's battery tech, it's the batteries are the most expensive part of this.
You could easily spend forty thousand dollars to do or more for the panels, which are getting cheaper, but it's the batteries.
And the inverter charge controllers that go on top of the battery.
The battery tech is still not great, and that's where the expense comes in.
But for someone who wants to buy their way into energy independence, because of Trump's attacking Iran, he has forced a lot of people to look at sunlight because the sun is one thing that no government can block.
Not yet, anyway.
And Iran can't block the straight of sunlight coming out of the sky.
So that's important to keep in mind.
You know, who would have thought that Trump would be an EV salesman?
But it's true.
At the same time, some people are storing diesel.
And I actually think that's still a great idea right now, even though diesel is much higher than what it used to be.
And by the way, let me mention on your show, in terms of safety, I don't encourage people to store gasoline because it's just so dangerous and it's so flammable.
Diesel is a completely different beast.
You know, diesel engines, they don't even have spark plugs because it's hardly flammable.
It's only ignited under pressure, extreme pressure.
That's the only way it even burns.
It's hard to burn.
So it's much safer to store.
But you still need UL listed double walled storage tanks with spring loaded ventilation and so on to account for expansion during the heat, things like that.
So I just want to be clear a safety note for your audience.
But store diesel because it's probably going much, much higher from here forward.
And like I said, I'm using diesel.
I paid $2.50 a gallon last year sometime.
Mad Max Scenario and Billions Die00:10:01
And I'll be using that for a long time to come at these current rates.
But those are some of the things that people can do.
And kind of like during the COVID years, a lot of people are increasingly working from home or finding ways to get a job that allows them to work from home and just zooming into their job.
A lot of that's going on.
Yeah, unfortunately, that's limited to what you can do.
Although I think a lot of that's going to come back out of necessity.
So, listen, all this stuff that we've talked about so far on both your articles here, both with the petroleum and with the food issues, is all if.
If the war ended tomorrow, all these problems are baked in, and here's what we're going to have.
Now, then, let me ask you about two separate scenarios.
One is President Trump just can't make a decision, doesn't make a decision, but keeps the blockade on there, and we go into, say, July through the next month.
And then we get the magic thing it's over, whatever.
What is the difference between over tomorrow and over at the end of July?
The difference is probably tens of millions of deaths in other countries around the world in 2027.
You know, at some point, you're going to be able to assign each day of delay will result in a certain number of people dying from famine.
That's sadly, that's just cause and effect.
Yes, yes.
And you're going to see a lot of food aid, you know, like food aid concerts and fundraisers and emergencies among the international organizations that help provide food aid.
You're going to see that all throughout 2027 right now.
I mean, again, there's no way to stop that.
And the real problem is, I mean, that people can have as big a heart as they want, but if the food isn't there to distribute or if the crops aren't coming up with the proper amount of food, there's not much you can aid unless you.
Want to just balance off the countries that still have more than they did, which would be necessary, but also not very likely, I would think.
There's also going to be a strong shift towards lesser nourishing foods all over the world.
So you'll have substitutions in diets to move from traditional foods that maybe had better nutrition into more, let's say, food aid capable foods that have a longer shelf life that are more malnourished.
For example, if you have white bread, Or white flour crackers, they have a much longer shelf life.
But all the vitamin E has been taken out.
You know, all the minerals have been stripped out.
The healthy oils from the wheat berry grain have been stripped out because those oils can go rancid on the shelf.
So you're going to end up with more processed junk food being shipped out to these countries.
And then those people, even if they're able to survive on this processed junk food, then they're going to start to have all the, you know, the North American issues.
They're going to have diabetes and heart disease and dental problems, malnourished.
That's going to become another side effect of all of this.
And Daniel, look, I know you've covered this extensively, but in my assessment, I don't think the United States of America can ever control the Strait of Hormuz.
It's just geography.
So the longer we stay there and try to assert control, the more people will suffer and die in 2027.
And if you do the math on this, and I don't mean to, I'm not trying to be hyperbolic here, but this situation, if Trump continues to pursue this, This will result in more people dying than the Holocaust.
And that's not an exaggeration at all.
Now, that's with basically option B if we keep the blockade in and it goes through into the summer.
Right.
But now, option C if President Trump, and there is growing evidence even just in the last 12 hours that I've had from sources at various locations that they could be trending towards a resumption of the active conflict and strike all these energy systems in Iran, which will immediately.
Respond.
I'm sure they'll do what they have threatened to do and that they'll hit all these facilities here.
And then it won't just be two out of whatever, I think you said 14 gas lines in Qatar, but it could be devastating the whole thing.
What, in your estimate, is if that turns out we go back active, we hit Iran's energy, Iran hits the GCC energy, what happens then?
Well, I don't like to use the term Mad Max, but in that scenario that you just described, With near complete destruction of the energy infrastructure and Iran retaliating against the Gulf nations, then billions die, billions die over time.
And then we have mass social unrest, we have social upheaval, we have revolutions, we have war, chaos.
And I'm not just talking about the United States for all those things, I'm saying all over the world.
Yeah.
And help us understand here, because when I think, I'm like, okay, I'm looking at global oil and I'm thinking, okay, 20% comes through the Strait of Hormuz.
And so, okay, well, if we lost all that, we still got 80% out here.
So, maybe we'll have to tighten our belts a little bit, but it won't be that bad.
But you're saying it would be worse than that.
How, just to help us understand the math, how can 20% equal global famine?
Because it's the cost.
The energy has been abundant this whole time.
Food has been cheap because energy was cheap.
Energy was cheap because the ships were sailing 120 a day through the strait.
So many countries, and I'm saying billions of people in this world, including nearly a billion in India, live on the edge of poverty right now.
They are marginally just barely able to afford to eat now.
So even if you can grow the food, you can't grow the food.
At scale with the economics that can be afforded by billions of people who are living on this planet.
That's the issue.
Does that make sense?
Unfortunately, it does.
I wish it didn't.
And in the event that combat operations return and they start hitting these things, what can other countries around the world do?
Is there any way to mitigate it once that starts happening?
Well, let me answer it this way You know, Trump announced over the weekend Project Freedom as a humanitarian mission.
To free these ships out of the Persian Gulf.
In my opinion, if Trump wanted to do the most humanitarian thing possible, he should leave, leave the Persian Gulf and let Iran charge its tolls, let the ships flow, because that will save hundreds of millions of lives in the long run.
The humanitarian thing to do, in my opinion, again, is for the United States to stop this war, negotiate some deal of peace, an end of this war.
And learn to get along with the other nations of the world, whether it's Russia or China or Iran or whoever, because we are very fragile in our global system right now food and energy, all the things that we've talked about.
It's very fragile.
We are one hair trigger away from the destruction of the infrastructure that keeps at least 4 billion people alive through economics and the energy and the hydrocarbons that we just talked about.
But there are other things here.
There are certain, like sulfuric acid, for example, it's the number one most important chemical.
In industry around the world.
And we're not getting the sulfuric acid that we used to get.
And did you know that without sulfuric acid, you can't really pull rare earths out of mine tailings?
You need the acid in order to acidify and put rare earths into solution so you can extract them later on.
The sulfuric acid comes as a side effect out of all of the energy mining or extraction out of the Middle East.
So there are other critical factors here that are chilling game changers.
If we don't restore the flow of helium and sulfuric acid and hydrocarbons and polyethylene, you start to get a domino effect that destroys the supply chains that make modern life possible.
And we will all suffer as a result.
Well, that's not one of the more happy endings I've had on a show here before.
But listen, I cannot thank you enough for coming on and laying this out for us because we need to understand.
And man, if ever there was a time for people to.
Call their congressman, or I don't know, send a letter to the White House, who knows, who cares what, something to your representatives and say, This thing needs to come to an end.
This is not just about chest thumping about who's important here and who's controlling the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's get this stuff off the table while we still can, because once this thing goes back hot again, we may not be able to recover in our lifetimes.
And I'd like to avoid that.
Well, Daniel, I'm honored to be on your show, and I apologize if I sounded too scary.
I've actually been holding back, honestly, but the.
The truth is that, again, this is my opinion.
I'd like to leave you with this.
Trump says that we're justifying the war with Iran because Iran might have nuclear weapons and that's a threat to the world.
I would say that the U.S. military's current war with Iran is economically nuking the world with far more casualties than what Hiroshima produced or Nagasaki.
Far more casualties will come in 2027.
We are nuking the world right now economically and we've got to stop.
That's my opinion.
I understand, but that's the way I see it.
I'm in agreement with you.
I mean, even without knowing all the things you said here, just what we can see.
That is likely coming, especially because all of this was a self inflicted wound.
None of it needed to happen.
That's right.
And yet, here we are.
But I really appreciate you coming on, Mike.
Thank you so much.
And we look forward to having you back on again one day.
All right.
Take care.
Thank you.
And we appreciate you guys too.
Vitamin D3 Shipping While Supplies Last00:03:46
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