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Aug. 13, 2024 - Lionel Nation
29:13
The Most Mind-Blowing Financial and Market Predictions in View of Election 2024
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All right, dear friends, I'm glad to have my good friend back, and here's Bob Kudlow from TradeWithLionel.com, actually Trade Genius, to give us his latest insight, his latest perspective on all that you should know.
Bob, welcome back, my friend.
Hey, thanks, Lionel.
Thanks for having me.
What should we know right now?
Top of mind.
Big stuff.
Yeah, I think, look, we probably have an event coming that people may be thinking about it, but I don't think they'll understand the consequences of it.
So let me lay the groundwork here.
So there's a lot of things that can go really wrong really fast in the world, okay?
True.
I'll start with the one that people probably don't think about too much is that we're really on a macro standpoint is the great unwind of debt has begun.
So by the time this is all done, the only people that are going to be able to have any debt is going to be governments.
And then there will be the great unwind of governments.
And so what's happening here is that For the last 40 years, we've had the Japanese yen used as what they call a carry trade.
And what a carry trade is, is basically you have a currency that you sell, and then you can get cash from that currency, and then you buy assets in a country or a currency that gives you a better return.
And then what you do then is you take your profit off of that and you buy back the currency that you sold at a lower price.
And they've been doing that now for 40 years.
Well, over the last six weeks, it's been an abrupt change.
And so you're talking a total of maybe $15 or $20 trillion worth of carry trade that's going to unwind.
And look, the first...
Earthquake we got from that, the stock market dropped 10%.
That's why the stock market fell last month, is the carry trade unwinding.
Japan last night has said that they're going to enact a parliamentary meeting to discuss raising interest rates again.
And because what's happening is that the Japanese have to start raising interest rates or currency is going to flee the country.
And at some point, this carry trade is not beneficial for Japan.
Higher interest rates are more beneficial for Japan.
So you have a situation where they're going to raise interest rates and bring capital back into the country.
Well, that capital has to leave the U.S. market, the Australian market, etc., etc., etc., and it will drive our stock market down.
So we're only like halfway to two-thirds through that process, and that unwinds going to continue.
Okay, so that's number one.
Number two, In the country here, we actually have gone from deceleration to a bit of reverse.
You don't hear that in the mainstream media because inflation is still at 3%.
But actually wages have now gone negative year over year.
And primarily because the industries that are still hiring people, this is an aggregate, are making less money than the industries that are We have basically the average wage in the country went from deceleration now to actually reverse.
Well, you can imagine the implications of that, okay?
Because that drives everything.
Credit is pretty much, you know, people...
Get confused with credit.
In fact, they said, oh, there's still a lot of credit capacity left in the country.
Well, the people that have credit capacity don't need to borrow money.
The people that don't have any credit capacity obviously need to borrow money to be able to maintain a lifestyle or to maintain a life, right?
And so you have a situation where...
You know the old adage, right?
The bank only lends you money when you don't need it.
Well, the only people that can get money is the people that don't need it.
And the people that absolutely desperately need money are not going to get it.
And the political environment is so thoroughly poisoned right now that there's going to be no appetite to save the Biden-Kamala Harris administration.
You know, they're going to let them, you know, hoist them on their own petard, right?
So you have that situation, which means that if you're making less money, you're spending less money.
And you're starting to see it everywhere.
You know, the big tell will be watch restaurants, right?
Watch hotels.
Watch the spend, you know, what I would call the non-required spending.
And especially when services start to get...
And they started to, now they have to continue to dry up.
Okay, that's that.
And then the elephant in the room is, where is Iran going to point their vengeance, right?
So everybody is thinking, okay, Iran, you know, they suffered two catastrophic losses of leadership, right?
Actually three in the last three months, right?
Their president, the Hamas president, you know, whatever, lack of a better word.
And the second in command of Hezbollah.
Okay, so...
And don't forget Soleimani a while back, who...
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
And so they're...
They've never forgotten.
No, well, they don't forget anything over there.
You know, I mean, we're fighting a 5,000-year war here, and people think it's about today, is that, you know, so they're obligated to do something.
And one thing that people don't realize, okay, you know, I would say most dictators are rational in the sense that if they understand that there's a chance for them to die, they won't do anything foolish, right?
Because their whole purpose of being a dictator...
Is to maintain power and enjoy the benefits of the largesse you get from that, right?
So, like, you know, the North Korean dictator is never going to pop a nuke because within 30 minutes, North Korea will cease to exist, right?
Same with China, same with the U.S., same with Putin, okay?
Now, you have the Sunnis and the Shia in the Middle East.
Well, the Sunnis are actually rational, too.
Right?
So they're not going to pop a nuke or they're not going to do anything foolish if they think their country is going to get destroyed, right?
A la, you know, what happened to the Ba 'ath Party, right?
Interesting you say a la as a pun.
Just saying.
I didn't catch that.
Sorry.
But the Shia are a little bit different.
Okay, and I'm not being pejorative.
No, no, no, no.
That's one thing.
This is about the bottom line, how it affects, as John Mearsheimer calls it, realism.
This is what's happening.
This is realism, irrespective of what it should be or whether you agree with it.
This is the way it is.
Yeah, so the Shia have a different viewpoint on prophecy, right?
You know, the Christians are looking for the return of Christ, right?
But the Christian motive is that, you know, you still need to live under the tenets and teachings of Jesus Christ.
So we're not out there trying to kill people for Christ.
I mean, the Catholics did that, you know, with Britain and Crusades.
But for the most part, Christians aren't out there saying, I can bring Jesus Christ back faster if I start killing people.
Well, the...
The Shia believe the 12th Mahdi is going to come in, and they need to do certain things to usher that in.
So they don't care.
If Iran got nukes, they won't hesitate to use it because they believe that will help usher in the end of the world and the return of the 12th Mahdi.
And so they are not a rational actor.
And so you have a situation here where they can just do something.
That people won't think a rational actor will do.
And that's my biggest concern.
And so now everybody is worried about, will Iran go after Israel, right?
Or will Iran use their proxies to go after, you know, the bases in Syria and Iraq?
You know, the last time they did those two things, they got their fingers burned pretty badly with both America and Israel not even breathing hard.
So I don't think Iran's going to attack Israel directly or even through their proxies directly because they have a lot to lose, right?
The oil fields could just be torched.
The reason why Israel blew up the oil terminals in Yemen for their attack with the drone attack in Tel Aviv was to tell Iran is that you're equally vulnerable for an economy on your oil terminals.
We take out the Karg Island.
Iran ceases to exist as a society in six months, okay?
Forget about their war capacity.
They just simply, people will be starving to death over there by the millions because there will be no income coming in.
But that doesn't mean that Iran can't do something crazy through their sleeper cells, you know, in Europe or the U.S., you know, a dirty bomb in New York.
Or a mass casualty event or, you know, some sort of biochemical or whatever, where you have some plausible deniability.
There's enough people out there in the world that, you know, that can claim responsibility.
And I worry about that because the market's not worrying about that.
And I think there's a lot of those things laying out there.
And then, you know, look, they just can be insane and decide to go for it, right?
The risk-reward favors you being risk-averse at this point.
So what we're telling people that subscribe to our service is that, look, when the Fed's going to lower interest rates in September, it's almost a certainty now, that you need to be positioned in the bond market, long bonds, TLT.
You need to be allocating away from strictly long-only.
We have those pair trades.
We talked about those last month.
They're performing magnificently.
The market went down 10%.
We were neutral, and we're still picking up the dividends.
And then there's some other things you can allocate towards.
NVIDIA is going to suffer greatly in a downtrend.
MicroStrategy will suffer greatly in a downtrend.
ARK will suffer greatly in a downtrend.
And there's ETFs that you could trade.
To protect you by going long those ETFs that are looking for that market dislocation.
So that's kind of how we're allocated, how we see things.
Remember, lowering interest rates is not a good thing for the markets.
It's a signal to get out of stocks.
Believe it or not, the market likes rising interest rates and they don't like falling interest rates because it's really what it's telling them is bad things are happening or good things are happening.
And so that's kind of my...
My monologue to you.
And those three events are all hanging out there, and any and all can happen at any time.
And then, plus, we don't know Russia, right, and Ukraine.
You know, the Ukrainians did something, you know, people may in history books look at it as brilliant, or they can look at it as foolhardy.
You know, Putin feels threatened, you know.
You know, they worry about Israel bombing a school and killing a kid, right?
Everybody's wringing their hands.
But Russia goes into a city in Ukraine and levels it.
They don't care how many people they kill, okay?
If Putin feels that he can gain some sort of strategic advantage or bringing Ukraine to their knees, you know, he may do that.
And so that's kind of where we are with this stuff.
And then, you know, toss in the presidential election and there's some wild cards there.
But we're not close enough to that yet.
Right.
It'll get cleaner a little bit closer to November.
So that's kind of how I want to position it.
And so if you trade with us, right, or trade with Lionel with us, is that, you know, we're already telling people how to position themselves.
And, you know, there's many, many of our customers are just giving us attaboys on that particular approach because it just keeps things from getting out of hand.
You know, remember, in the stock trade, you don't have to be right.
You just don't want to be wrong.
Right.
And there's a difference, believe it.
So, you know, at the end of the day, you want to preserve your capital.
And if you're trying to live on this money, there's ways in which you can preserve your capital.
Generate a yield to be able to live on.
A very substantial yield, I may add.
And so we show people how to do that.
And all they have to do is to call 800-949-1408.
Mention Lionel.
Mention you heard Bob and Lionel speak.
And then they will be subject to a veritable bevy, a tsunami of discounts and benefits that...
We don't even have time to discuss, but you have to say you heard it here, or to go to tradewithlionel.com specifically.
Bob, what is the best way to do this?
You mean to get a hold of us?
Yeah.
Go through your landing page or just call.
The easiest way is to call us, but always...
Let people know that you came through because of the Lionel podcast we did here.
That way you get the best deal.
And then also, I can support Lionel's channel in the same vein.
Now, let me also ask you something.
I have to ask you this.
The election, you mentioned right now, because that's all I'm talking about.
That's all anybody's talking about.
And it changes from day to day.
I agree with you.
It's too early.
We haven't even gotten to the...
They talk about sugar highs and honeymoon periods.
We haven't even seen the convention yet.
And what's your take?
What can you tell us now, if anything?
And if not, when should we be paying attention?
And again, let me just say something.
This is not pro-Trump, pro-Harris, pro-whatever.
This is merely vis-a-vis investing and benefiting from this protean vicissitudinal...
World of politics.
I just want people to understand that this is not a political chat we're having.
This is about investing in money.
Yeah, I mean, look, I'll give you my opinion and I'll give you my pick, right?
Trump is going to be better for the economy than Harris.
Absolutely.
So Harris is the Walter Mondale wing.
I mean, her picking Tim Walz tells you everything.
They're going to go full on communism.
What does that mean?
What does that tell you?
I'm curious.
Versus, let's say, Shapiro or anybody else.
Well, Waltz is an alternate leftist.
And so Kamala Harris picking him.
Now, she picked him for one of two reasons.
One is that she loves the policies.
Or number two, he's less desirable than her, so nobody's going to take her out.
So just basically what Biden did with her.
So we don't know which of the two that they're picking, but I think it's a little bit of both.
And so it'll be unimaginable, okay, the economy.
People have no idea because then, you know, we don't obey the rule of law now.
And if they get another four years, they'll fundamentally rewrite the country.
Oh, absolutely.
some sort of civil disobedience that will be coming from it'll be awful it'll be an orange I think it's going to be almost like an orange revolution or something along those lines.
They will not go quietly into that goodnight or whatever it is.
I agree with you 100%.
Yeah, what Trump's going to do is a little bit different.
It's almost the same policy as Britain did coming out of the Great Depression.
Basically, he's going to fortress America by bringing in...
He's going to lessen the trade velocity and he's going to bring more things back into the U.S. So if you want to trade with the United States, you better be a strong ally of the United States, i.e.
I'll take all those manufacturers in China and make my companies come out of Vietnam because Vietnam supports my policies.
China does not.
I'll throw it into Japan.
I'll throw it into Korea.
I'll take my hide out of somebody else, okay?
But I'm going to bring more back to the United States.
So we'll have higher wage inflation, which, you know, On a long-term standpoint, people are like, but we've so underinvested in our people here in terms of being able to survive.
It's bound to come back.
It's a smart move.
It's probably the only move we have.
Look, I'm a diehard Republican, but you can't have people on starvation wages and expect to have a consumer economy.
It just doesn't work.
So I think that's my bias.
It's my opinion.
Vegas thinks Trump's going to win.
And before we got on the show, really, Trump's going to win everywhere that he's expected to win.
And the only four areas that we have to keep an eye on is that if there's going to be enough cheating in Philadelphia, Atlanta, Milwaukee, and Detroit.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you.
If they can suppress the cheating there.
And also, they need to lift the suburbs up.
I mean, the suburbs that voted for Biden over Trump, hopefully the inflation and the jobs thing is getting people sufficiently nervous that they're going to hold their nose for Trump, the people that wouldn't normally vote for him.
So J.D. Vance was a good pick because he has a compelling American story, and he's very articulate, and he's going to just drive home the point from basically...
Jersey Shore to Chicago up to the Canadian border that we will bring jobs back to you here.
Okay?
And that's going to be my mission.
I also love the little subtext.
J.D. Vance is a Peter Thiel acolyte and he is a Silicon Valley.
This could be a war against Silicon Valley against Hollywood.
Silicon Valley is going to bring in AGI.
An AI, rather, I should say.
And Hollywood is, they hate, this group hates crypto.
They are, Kamala Harris, this is my opinion, not you, Bob.
I think is a sock puppet.
A wind, kind of a wind sock.
You just, whatever you put in her, she's there to be almost an auto pen.
They're trying to put her out as far as possible, not to have to address, September the 10th, the debate.
It's going to be absolutely because people now understand what debates mean.
They didn't really understand that before.
And also, the event that we had last night, whenever people see this, with Elon and President Trump, that changed the entire complexion and the framework of American political communication battlegrounds.
It was seismic.
And my friends in conventional terrestrial radio and TV...
Have no idea what happened.
They don't even see it.
One billion people watched that conversation.
Right.
And will continue.
And it, again, and let me just throw this one into you.
And I'm familiar with the world of media.
They always say, America, the people are not into long form.
You don't understand this.
They have a short attention span.
Well, guess what?
Netflix.
Prove them wrong with that, with the Sopranos every week.
People will binge watch.
They even have this thing called Binge Neck, where people will watch for an hour.
People sat with that.
Time spent listening numbers were through the roof.
So let me just tell you, not only the world that you're familiar with, but just delivery systems of information.
It's cataclysmic, seismic, and I love it.
Well, look, you and I are in this business.
I will tell you, and I'm not going to pat myself on the back, but I will.
Do it.
Yes, every day.
People like our podcast, but we get right to the point.
Okay, you know, or eight to ten minutes, we get right to the point.
That way, when I watch other people, sometimes it takes them ten minutes to get to their point, and I'm done with it.
I just flip it right off.
Elon Musk is interesting in the fact that he asks really good questions.
Trump is charismatic.
And you're not quite sure what's going to come out of his mouth.
So he's going to keep your attention.
And he says things in a colorful, you know, he's a paint-the-picture guy.
He's colorful.
And so you can watch that, you know.
And, you know, I think people will binge-watch things that are interesting and have integrity.
Yes.
Other than that, like, you know, people ask me to listen to this.
I say, no, I don't watch it.
Because, you know, I already know what they're going to say.
You know, you can see it in comments.
Listen to what?
Saturday Night Live?
No, just anything.
Oh, yeah, right, right.
Like, anything political.
Like, I don't watch Fox News because I know exactly what people are going to say.
They're not informing me.
They're trying to reinforce an opinion on me.
Yes.
And so, you know, I personally want, hopefully, like this part, I hopefully get imparted information to people.
That is actionable.
You know, instead of me, I could have came up here and I could have given you all kinds of superlatives, right?
By my surface, superlatives.
But, you know, I want to be interesting because I like interesting people.
And I think Trump's an interesting person.
My only beef with Trump is, you know, and I think he's learned a little bit, is that, you know, sometimes you can't be too off the cuff with things because, you know, people take things the wrong way.
Right.
Look, she'll hold her nose and vote for Trump, but she doesn't like the way he conducts himself.
Even though his policies are exactly what we need.
And I think that's the, hopefully they got to him on that, you know.
But Kamala Harris is an absolute train wreck, you know.
And, you know, so, I mean, if people had any idea, I mean, Tulsi Gabbard just destroyed her in the last debate.
She has no comeback at all.
I hope when they do the debate, they don't let anybody have things in their ear so they can't whisper answers to her.
Well, let me tell you something.
The problem with that, trust me, from somebody who's used an IFB before, that will throw her off worse than anything you can imagine.
I hope she does that.
Because remember, one of the things, because all of a sudden, if you're talking, if you say, Hi, this is Bob Cunca...
Because the first thing, when you hear this, it's not something, even professionals can't do that.
And also sometimes, you remember last time, sometimes when you think you're ginning the system, one of the reasons why Biden did so poorly was because they exceeded to what they said.
There was no audience.
There was no audience to help blend it.
The silence, the crickets, the pauses were deafening.
So sometimes you've got to remember, it may make sense to you.
But I know a little bit about, by the way, just my two things.
What I would do, very simply, because I know she doesn't know what to do, the first thing I would do is I would come out of the gate and ask her two questions.
Number one, do you think that Israel is committing genocide?
And number two, is there a difference between man and woman?
And if I got time three, what do you think about a man who goes into a boxing ring, beats the hell out of a woman, and they give him a medal?
Boom, boom, boom!
And if she says, wait a minute, that's not...
The answer.
And I'd say, excuse me, you're the president.
You don't get to pick your questions.
You don't get to tell Xi Jinping or Putin, this is what I want to talk about.
All right, that's off the record.
I answer the question.
She won't know what to say because she doesn't have an opinion.
What she thinks she wants, what she believes, has never been really articulated.
So anything he can do to throw her off and to split that Democratic Party, because when it comes...
And I'm only bringing up Israel just...
From a tactical point of view.
Yeah, I agree.
Very divisive.
Very divisive.
Yep.
I'm sorry to cut you off.
I mean, the Democrats have caught themselves into a pretzel here because they try to deli-slice their base up so much.
They totally alienated the Jews trying to get the communist Muslim vote, right?
And so, yeah, he needs to ask all those questions.
Oh, yes.
The answer she gives is going to be wrong.
You know?
Or it fractionalizes the vote.
Anyway, listen, you know what?
We ought to have our own separate political talk one day aside from this.
But anyway, Bob Cutler, always a pleasure, my friend.
Trade with Lionel is a website or call 800-949-1408 and make sure you tell them you saw Bob and Lionel together and they will give you a veritable avalanche of deals and...
Bob Cutler, my friend, always a pleasure.
Any final words?
No, I'd love to do it.
We could probably spend four hours.
We'd have a lot of fun.
See, but you and I think the same.
I don't care what I think.
I want to win this.
I don't care about why.
Remember one thing, I'll leave you with this.
Most competitions are you and me fighting or racing or whatever it is.
But imagine a race where You've got to take into account that I might cheat, that I have to have people vote for us.
It's not pure competition to somebody supposedly.
That means we're also putting it into somebody's minds.
And when you have a bunch of people who are the voters, who don't know what they're talking about, then you've got a big problem.
Because there's one thing about sports.
That's why I love sports talk.
They know the game.
They may love the Yankees.
They may be a diehard Yankees.
But when the Yankees make a mistake...
Or when the manager or the front office is wrong, they will say it, and they have no bones about it.
In politics, people create their own reality.
They create this world, and they will confuse biased media reporting with actual performance.
And in any event, enough with the pontificating.
We're going to talk a little bit.
I'll give you a final thought here.
It doesn't matter to me, as a general rule, what happens.
The important thing is your ability to react profitably to that action.
So anything short of, obviously, your house getting blown up and you going to jail, you can react to these things.
So that's all I really care about.
I try to be disciplined that way.
If Kamala Harris wins this election, I'm not going to go screaming and crying.
I'm going to react in a way to protect my family and my subscribers.
Exactly.
Bob Cudlin, my friend, always a pleasure.
Let us speak again, sir.
Yep, thank you.
Bye-bye.
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