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Dec. 23, 2023 - Lionel Nation
22:02
Trade Genius Bob Kudla: The Most Critical Trading Advice You Will Ever Hear. Bar None.
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I am so pleased, so honored to have back Bob Kudlow from Trade Genius and also TradeWithLionel.com.
Bob, welcome back, my friend.
Thanks for having me.
I'm glad you're feeling better.
Well, that's another story.
Bob, you know, a couple of things very quickly.
What is so, in case somebody says...
Oh, God, an investment thing.
No, no, it's like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
Because sometimes I've watched these things and they kind of lose me.
You are not somebody who, well, what you are, quote, selling is strategy, knowledge, information, lore.
You say things every single time I would have never thought I've never heard of.
That, in a lump, in a very simple sentence, is what you do.
Am I...
Close to what you do.
Did that destroy your business model?
Or is that spot on?
You know, it's really both.
I mean, the reason why I'm attracted to this business is that I came from business strategy, business development, my corporate life, and I'm always interested and intrigued about what's coming next.
And when you trade...
And invest in the stock market.
It's the people who make the most money are the people that can recognize the next macro trend.
And then you apply discipline, in our sense, algorithms to then buy those at good prices as the macro environment unfolds.
So that's kind of what we do.
Every day is different, so I'm never bored.
You know, the market is constantly evolving and the economy is constantly evolving.
And, you know, people that want to, you know, generate income or generate wealth needs to be aware of these things.
And then the tools that we provide at Trade Genius really help them, you know, make better decisions.
And just so you know, too, part of the service, since we're doing a quick plug here, is...
No, we're doing a plug.
We're doing not a quick plug.
This is a plug.
Let me make everybody know.
This is a plug.
And you're going to thank me that it's a plug.
Go ahead, sir.
Plug away.
Yeah, so we provide tools, but we also give trades out, too, every day.
So, you know...
You have some services out there that will just follow my trades when they're doing it live, and some people will just give you a macro.
We decided to teach you how to fish, but we'll give you the right fishing equipment, but we'll also give you fish, and we'll make sure you're in the right pond.
And that's kind of our secret sauce, and we do pretty well, and we get people on the right side of the trades.
And we help people make money.
But more importantly is that we help people just make better decisions and have better tools and then better discipline.
So that's Trade Genius.
And, you know, if you want to join us, just hit Trade with Lionel.
We created this jump page for him so that you can get really, really good discounts on our service.
So these are good.
done we're talking Friday you know the week before Christmas Eve so anything that you would get from Lionel be good to the end of the year so so take advantage of it and I think you'll like what we do and what we charge for the service is nothing compared to what you get out of it one or two trades you already paid for a year of it so with that let's talk about what's what's coming up is that you know the next We're talking on the 22nd of December.
Between now and probably the first week and a half of January, the Santa Rally is going to be hitting us.
And the market's been very receptive to this.
And it's becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
What is that?
The Santa Rally is usually at the end of the year and the beginning of the new year.
There's low volume in the markets so that people take advantage of that and they try to squeeze people that are...
Betting against the market, and it makes the market go higher across the board.
And so you have this phenomenon, they call it the Santa Rally.
And the people that were behind, you know, the hedge funds and companies like that try to play catch up.
So that they can make their performance look better.
And that carries over into the new year.
When you have an up year, you usually get a carryover into the new year.
And this year is unique because there's a lot of leverage in the system, a lot of anticipation that the Fed's going to cut rates, and we just make it a blow-off top here.
So it's going to be one of those things where the first half of January is going to look like, man, everything is beautiful.
By the end of January, things are going to be like, what cave can I hide in?
It's going to be that potential for that kind of volatility.
And that volatility can last all the way into Easter because, as you know, all the economic reports that we're getting are slowing down rapidly.
And I don't think it has much to do with interest rates as it has to do with inflation.
And so interest rate may help.
You know, with people speculating in real estate, but the main economy can't absorb any more debt because they don't make enough money to pay the bills.
So it's going to be one of those situations where they could be lowering interest rates as the market's falling.
And I think that's what's going to happen here.
Now, given that in mind, let's say somebody right now goes to trade with Lionel and says, OK, Bob, I'm in.
What do we do?
You have my dreams, my hopes, my future.
Where do we start?
And by the way, Bob, I don't know anything about this.
That's the good part, by the way.
Yeah, so when you join Trade Genius, you get a welcome package to kind of explain the service, but you also get templates from us.
Depending on what service level you buy, there's different templates on TradingView, which is a charting program that has all our...
Indicators and algorithms already pre-built in.
So you literally can just turn it on and have access to our algorithms.
You have access to the rooms right away.
And you can just follow the trades that we're throwing out there until you build your own watch list, go through the training, which we provide for free.
And then you can actually start trading some of the things on your own.
So that's how it is.
First day, you can actually start taking trades.
It takes people.
A couple weeks to a couple months, depending on their comfort level, you know, to kind of get grooved in.
But, you know, you can take trades from the first day just by following the trades that we're taking.
Can you do this for me?
If you had to give me the top, let's say, three absolute mistakes you see time after time after time.
And you see people do it not because they're stupid, not because they're ill-conceived, but they just make a mistake and something new.
What are some of the mistakes people make that you correct immediately?
Yeah, well, you correct your own mistakes.
We'll just tell you that that's bad practice.
So, you know, the biggest mistake that we see is that people, what they call FOMO, for missing out.
So they're watching news, they hear the trends, and they want to jump on a trade that has already started to move.
And so they jump on it, but you're really the sucker at the poker table at that point, because if CNBC is telling you to buy it, you should be selling it.
Because remember, they're in business to take care of their advertisers, and those people come on their show.
If they're telling you to buy something, they don't want competition.
They want to sell it to you.
If they're selling something, telling you to sell this, they want to buy it.
They want to buy it cheaper.
So that's number one.
Number two is that people will get...
Overly enthused.
And we see it here with Trade Genius.
You come on board, you get your first trade, you make money.
Okay, that's great.
Second trade, you come on, you make money, and then the third trade said, I'm really going to load up on this trade.
This trading is easy.
And you lose money on that trade, and then you wipe out all the profit you made.
And that's because you over-leverage.
Too much size, they call it.
So you have to have a consistent amount of...
How much money capital you're going to invest on each trade so that you can maintain.
It's a marathon, not a sprint.
The third mistake people make is that they don't set stops or if they have a stop, they don't adhere to it.
Market starts to fall or their stock starts to fall.
Now, what does that mean for somebody who says, I hope he asks what a stop is because I'm afraid to ask.
I don't know what that is.
What's a stop?
Well, let's say you bought ExxonMobil.
And at $100, and you're planning on getting out of it when it went to $106.
But it only got to $104.
And then you said, you know, I'm going to put a stop on it, which means that if it goes below this price, I'm getting out.
But people don't always put it into the system.
You can electronically place it.
I'm going to do a mental stop.
That's when I want to get out.
Well, then it drops to $99.
You're like, oh, I think it's going to come back.
And then it goes to 96. Come back.
Now it's at 92. Now you're invested in it.
And now you're like, oh, I can't lose this much money on this thing.
If I don't sell it, I haven't lost the money.
And then you end up, it goes down to $81 and you bail out of it because it blew up your account.
You know, so that's what I mean by that.
So every trade that we place out that we recommend to people that they should take a look at is we always give them a target.
We always give them a price to get out.
Isn't it also important, Bob, just to know there are people, and I've never seen anything like this, there are people who are instant experts.
I'm a lawyer by profession, but because there are internet lawyers who know everything about constitutional law and history, there are people who know all about diet and the Bible and God and you name it, because they're brother-in-law or they went to a party or they just feel immersed in this.
How do you tell people, you don't know what you're doing.
Listen to me.
Just take it in.
But this is not gossip.
This is strategy.
This is science.
This isn't hunches and astrology.
It's math and it's logic.
Yeah, you know, I actually use the lawyer principle.
I don't tell people anything.
I just ask them questions and let them come to their own conclusion on it.
You know, we're human.
If I told Lionel, if I told you you're an idiot, what's the first thing you're going to do?
You're going to try to prove me wrong, right?
And so, you know, so you can't tell people, well, that was stupid.
You know, you just ask them, what were you thinking when you took that trade?
You know, what were you hoping?
Were you hoping it was going to come back?
You know, did you know that in most cases when the system does this, you're probably, that's dead money.
So you help, and a lot of times too, look, And you know this being a lawyer.
Sometimes people have to get their fingers burned to not want to get burned again.
Right.
So, you know, there's nothing like experience as a really good teacher.
And let me ask, I've got to tell you this.
Years ago, I heard this study that there was a thing I read about.
The attorney general did this thing on automobile or auto mechanic fraud.
Don't ask me why.
And they said, well, certainly women.
We'll probably fall prey more than men.
And the answer was no.
Women ask questions because they're not supposed to know how cars work.
Men are supposed to know how cars work.
So they always say, oh, okay, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're right, the universal, and they don't know what the heck that means.
Are there certain people who are better, more intuitive in terms of knowing what they don't know?
Yeah, you know, it's interesting.
You know, the artists and musicians are very intuitive traders because they...
Interesting.
And I'm not an artist, but I'm a visual person.
So, you know, I'm a right brain.
So I see things.
So I see patterns.
My life's about patterns.
Stock trading is patterns.
I've seen this pattern before.
And there's a probability that pattern's going to repeat.
And the other people that do really well are engineers because they're structured.
And you don't have to be right a lot to make money in the stock market.
You just have to be disciplined that when you're wrong, you're wrong and you close the trade.
You know, there's people out there, like we're 66% win rate.
We have a positive, what's called profit factor, which means we make more money when we win than we lose when we lose money.
And that's important.
So there's people that have half the win rate that I do and have really good profit factors because they're just religious and rigorous about stopping out.
Okay, small loss, small loss, small loss.
Let my winner run.
So it all depends on your personality, how you do it.
For me personally, I'm comfortable with winning two times out of three and making sure that...
I keep that profit factor positive.
Because then over time, you can't help but make money in the stock market.
You have to be disciplined.
And you have to know yourself.
There's people that have my service that are here for the show, right?
They want to hear what I have to say, but they do their own trades.
There's other people that only take my trades.
And there's some people that just want to know what I'm doing, and they'll search their own stuff out.
A basket of people, but those are the two personality types that have done well.
You know, women and men, you know, I think women do a little bit better in trading than men do, but I don't have enough empirical evidence because I don't know necessarily.
I only talk to about...
Five or six percent of my customers because other people are active in the chat room or active in our VIP room.
But, you know, I have thousands of customers that I don't even know who they are.
You know, they're under avatars, you know.
So unless I want to go search the subscription database, I don't know if they're men or women.
I don't know if they're young or old.
So I don't keep that information.
I just know in my experience that people that tend to trade, at least equities are over 50. People that tend to trade crypto are under 30. Now, how are you positioned?
How do you feel about that?
Do you ever...
Is crypto or equities...
Do you have a set opinion?
Or do the situations determine your involvement?
It's not one or the other.
It's whatever is amenable to success at the moment, correct?
Yeah, I mean, look, we all have our opinions.
I have an opinion that's based in data.
You know, you're an attorney.
You go in with a thesis and a premise.
So we all go in with thesis and premises.
So, you know, we know there's certain factors like in the stock market.
This is the fourth year of a presidential cycle of a first president.
There are probabilities around that, you know.
The first quarter of a year, there's probabilities around that.
There's first month of the year, probabilities around that.
There's certain sectors that do well and not do well.
We look at all that because that big money is looking at that stuff.
There's a reason why they do that because it's because commodities have a season because when stuff's becoming available, so on and so forth.
So we let that inform us.
But then at the same time, everything's about the money flow in this business.
Where's the money flowing?
And you can see it in the charts.
And so we then let that guide us for each individual trade.
That's stocks.
Crypto is also mostly flows.
And when I say crypto, we're primarily Bitcoin.
We trade some of the alts.
Trade the gorilla.
You'll make enough money.
And if you're a United States citizen, you have trouble getting a lot of the altcoins anyway because they've been banning you availability.
And a lot of those altcoins, they call them, are offshore anyway.
You can't really touch them.
But you make a ton of money just trading Bitcoin.
And so Bitcoin has a halving cycle.
It has its own flows.
It reacts to the futures markets that are for Bitcoin.
And then there's Bitcoin miners out there, which are a hybrid.
You have, they're based on the value of Bitcoin, but they're equity.
And we trade those, too.
And you're getting a lot of money.
I mean, you know, just the last six weeks, some of these miners have doubled and tripled.
Now, before that, they dropped like a stone.
So they're very volatile, which we like as traders.
You want the volatility.
In the environment.
So that's how you make money trading.
You know, if you're just an investor, you probably want less volatility.
But if you're a trader, you want more volatility.
And so we're a trading shop.
So short-term trades.
I tell people my macro investments that I have personally.
But, you know, the stuff we put out, the services, the trades.
Now, right now, end of the year is coming up.
They're going to go to TradeWithLionel.com.
Walk them through this.
They say, okay, Bob, I'm sold.
TradeWithLionel.com.
Is it too late?
Should I jump in now?
What do I do?
I'm ready to go.
What do you have available?
What are the packages?
What are the deals?
Make me happy.
Make my Christmas grand.
Yeah, so we have a basic package and an advanced package for your listeners.
They're discounted even beyond what we normally discount on our bundles at our site.
And so you can go to tradelikelinel.com.
If you like it, you can call us, text us, email us, or you can just get your credit card out and buy it.
And these are annual packages.
And like I said, within 24 hours, you're up and running.
If there's something on there that you want above and beyond what we have at Trade with Lionel, you can come to our site directly, but tell people that you heard somewhere, and we'll give Lionel credit for that.
Yes!
And that's happened last month.
We had some of your listeners bought packages, but they didn't come through trade with Lionel.
But we ask everybody where they come from.
So make sure you let us know because you can get your discount, number one.
Yes.
Number two is that I want to support Lionel's show here.
So I want to be able to give back, if you will.
Well, let me tell you, the people who, my viewers, listeners, followers, acolytes, minions, legions of followers, love your stuff.
And I'm telling you, I'm not going to be a part of something shady.
Sorry!
Sorry!
You are top-notch.
You are absolutely peerless when it comes to providing a service and getting over the fact that most people don't know what you're doing.
And you were the perfect site to go to, Bob Cutler.
TradeWithLionel.com.
TradeWithLionel.com.
I will have in the description section all of the other information that you will need.
Bob, anything else to wrap up the year?
No, I think you and I should probably talk before the 12th, actually the week of the 12th, 12th to 17th.
That's going to be a big transition in the market.
Good, good, good, good, good.
I'll have some good information for you.
So let's plan on that.
And other than that, enjoy Christmas.
If you're Christian, if you're Jewish, you already had your Hanukkah, so leave the rest of the presents for us.
And if not, have a happy New Year, and I'll talk to you in a couple weeks.
Thank you so much.
Bob Cutler, TradeWithLionel.com.
Thank you so much, my friend.
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